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Money is flowing out, so why are prices still going down?
Contracts are flowing out 831 million a day, spot only 105 million, not the same batch of money.📊
I watched this chart closely tonight: the decline isn’t because there are fewer bottom-fishers, it’s because leveraged positions are withdrawing.
All four spot coins are flowing out: BTC outflow 105 million, ETH outflow 204 million the most, SOL outflow 9.05 million, ZEC outflow 16.96 million. Outflow in spot can be read as withdrawing to hold, but contract outflow is much larger.
On the contract side, BTC outflow is 831 million, ETH outflow 1.232 billion, SOL outflow 145 million, ZEC outflow 56.94 million. The BTC column is nearly 8 times spot, ETH column 6 times, the withdrawals are leveraged positions.
The market data matches: total network open interest 127.936 billion, down 2.56%, ETH open interest down 6.39%, ZEC down 8.82%, ETH long cost flipped to -0.0011%, shorts paying; ETH dropped 5.63% the most, BTC down 2.06%.
Liquidations are the same: total network liquidated 1.145 billion in one day, longs account for 1.031 billion, 172,781 people liquidated. I still hold two short positions: SOL from 106.52 to 86.17, floating profit about 19.1%; ETH from 2476.92 to 2107.45, floating profit about 14.9%.😌
Contract net outflow hasn’t turned positive, no change in short positions; on the day it turns positive, I’ll first halve the SOL position, keep holding the ETH one.👀ATOM continues to show weak oscillation. Although Cosmos has a solid foundation in cross-chain technology, discussions about its value capture ability have never ceased. The IBC ecosystem, inter-chain collaboration, and modular narrative remain advantages, but whether token demand can keep pace with ecosystem expansion is what investors care about most. The market shows some support at low levels, but active buying is not prominent; it is more a game of existing funds. Going forward, the focus should be on on-chain activity, progress of ecosystem projects, and whether the market refocuses on the cross-chain sector. $ATOMAn interesting comparison chart has gone viral.
After Bezos and Gates were involved in related scandals back then, in the following 90 days, Amazon and Microsoft stock prices actually closed higher, recording +10.82% and +18.01% respectively.
Now it's Huang Renxun's turn; the event just happened, and NVDA is yet to open.
Of course, the chart clearly states: historical rises ≠ driven by this event, more so dominated by the market trend and industry cycle at the time, with gossip news just an interlude.
But this time the situation is different. The previous two did not have as many negative factors stacked as now: AI regulatory pressure, high valuations, and simultaneous commercial investigations, making uncertainty much higher than before.
History can be referenced, but the script cannot be copied directly.
Tonight, the focus is on how Nvidia opens and holds. Will it replicate the predecessors' "bad news fully priced in then recovery," or will funds use the news as an excuse to flee risk?
By the way, NVDA is the core of the AI mainline, and its volatility will indirectly drive the Nasdaq and crypto market sentiment.
What do you think? Which path will it take this time? #US October CPI Preview: Will the December Rate Hike Expectation Change?
The market expectations are currently very divided. The overall month-on-month rate is expected to drop from 0.6% in September to 0.3%, which is basically a given, as the decline in energy prices is clear. The disagreement lies entirely in the core figure: Bloomberg expects 0.2%, the lowest in three months; but institutions like RBC and Bank of America insist on 0.3%. The difference between 0.2 and 0.3 is one point, which means a world of difference for the market.
Why is it particularly tricky this time? Because the BLS has laid its cards on the table: last year’s government shutdown caused a gap in the base data, so this time they won’t publish year-on-year figures, only month-on-month. If you’re used to quickly placing orders based on “CPI YoY 3.x%,” that won’t work tomorrow; you’ll have to carefully analyze the components.
What’s more troublesome is that expectations have already been set high. When last week’s nonfarm payrolls came out, the probability of a December rate hike jumped to 78%, meaning the market is already pricing in a hike as the baseline scenario. This means even if CPI meets expectations, it may not be enough to suppress rate hike expectations. Unless the core figure drops to 0.2 or even lower, the idea of “no move in December” won’t even be considered.
For BTC, the current situation is very specific. The market is hovering around 74k, having dropped more than 8% this month, not in a position to calmly “wait for data before deciding direction.” OKX put it well: the market isn’t afraid of CPI heating up, but of core inflation no longer declining. As long as the core stays stuck at 0.3%, with US Treasury yields and the dollar rising, $BTC AAVE is moving differently from the overall market today. During the 5 AM hour, it also dropped, falling from 129.78 at midnight to 123.98, a decline of about 4.5%. But now it has bounced back to around 131.6, about 1.4% higher than at midnight, while most major coins are still down 2% to 6% compared to midnight.
This rebound mainly happened after 4 PM. In that hour, it rose from 127.5 to 131.3, and OKEx's total contract open interest increased from about $14.47 million to around $15.51 million, an increase of roughly 7%, while the price only rose about 3.2% in the same period. The funding rate also flipped: yesterday's three settlements were all negative, but today's three are all positive, with the 4 PM one at 0.0094%, and the next expected to be similar.
The spot market hasn't moved much. OKEx spot trading volume today is about 3.37 million USDT so far, still below the recent 30-day daily average of 3.7 million.
So my view is that today's strength mainly comes from new long positions opened in the contracts, with spot buying not keeping up. This kind of movement is most vulnerable if the funding rate continues to rise while spot volume remains low, making longs more expensive and crowded, which can easily lead to giving back the afternoon gains. If I were to believe it is truly stronger than the overall market, I would first want to see spot volume pick up.
$AAVE The meteorological observation station has just captured a rare stable stratification — Vitalik has designated a new long-term climate pattern in the upper atmosphere, no longer treating short-term precipitation (fee burning) as the sole indicator of monsoon intensity. When fee burning is lower than new issuance, it is equivalent to precipitation being less than evaporation, but this does not signal climate failure; it simply means the water vapor transport belt has changed its path.
EIP-1559 remains in place, equivalent to retaining the short-term precipitation observation station; however, the long-term climate belt is not determined by artificial rain enhancement but shaped by the fundamental pressure field. Decentralized high-pressure ridges, security cold air barriers, anti-censorship circulation structures, and the surface heat flux driven by RWA and collateral demand are the keys to stabilizing the atmospheric boundary layer. Scarcity driven by burning is like localized convective rain—arriving quickly and pouring heavily—but it cannot sustain the entire monsoon trough. What truly determines ETH's long-term valuation is the dew point temperature difference among issuance, burning, and real demand—if the difference is positive, it indicates the air is still rising and the climate pattern is sustainable; if the difference turns negative, a cooling warning needs to be issued.
The US stock token $xHOOD plays the role of a frontal system here: US stock capital flows are warm, moist air currents, while ETH staking and RWA demand are cold air moving south; precipitation concentrates at the frontal convergence, but the front moves and cannot be considered a permanent climate belt. Short-term linkage is like gust fronts passing—quick to come and go; long-term correlation depends on sea surface temperature anomalies, that is, whether global liquidity levels support simultaneous warming of both atmospheric layers.
Current pressure gradients show that short-term burning deficits do not trigger climate failure signals, but continuous monitoring of the dew point changes among the three elements—issuance, burning, and real demand—is necessary. What truly needs caution is not low precipitation but those who mistake short-term showers for monsoon establishment and remove observation stations before the climate belt extends westward.
The current pressure field indicates only one thing: those who treat short-term burning as the monsoon have yet to understand that the long-term climate belt is extending westward. #vitalikethstoreofvalue#ASTS推进手机直连卫星服务，商业化进展待披露
ASTS has only exceeded EPS expectations twice in the past 8 quarters, and has not surpassed EPS consensus expectations even once in the last four quarters. Meanwhile, its core "mobile direct-to-satellite" business has yet to generate revenue, and with the stock price having retreated about 75% this year, the market has extremely low confidence in its ability to deliver results.It's 7:30 PM, brothers, have you had dinner? Looking at this screen full of green K-lines, even your favorite takeout doesn't seem appealing anymore? Don't rush to shut down your computer! The market is half-dead right now, but these few stubborn altcoins are all laying landmines, and the dog traders' harvesting machines have been fully fueled for a long time!
First, look at $DOGE, current price 0.069. This endless downward trend is really miserable, but check its 4-hour long-short ratio, which has actually risen to 5.30. Just a glance at this data makes your scalp tingle. What does it mean? Retail investors are frantically bottom-fishing, buying more as it falls, their positions as heavy as a mountain.
Next, look at $XRP, current price 1.08. It has dropped nearly 7%, and the long-short ratio is also absurdly high at 3.98. This weak coin was already struggling, and now there are layers of leveraged longs desperately holding below. If Bitcoin shakes even a little, it will definitely perform a high-diving act.
Finally, look at $PEPE, current price 0.00000506. This one has actually become the healthiest in the field, with a long-short ratio of 1.76. Although it has slightly risen, the leverage is not so extreme. After a washout earlier, it is relatively resistant to the downturn, but in this dead and stagnant market, don't rush to chase it.
My view: The biggest original sin is the crowding of longs during a downtrend. Bottom-fishing now is just giving money to the dog traders.
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ 仅盘面复盘思路分享，不构成交易建议，市场波动风险自担 $BTC $ETH $BNB 很多人在震荡行情里，每天盯着K线高低点来回猜突破，却很少静下心看资金的真实选择。 近期很长一段时间，宏观消息来了就脉冲一下，消息真空期迅速回归区间，价格上下反复插针，真假突破层出不穷。盘面给人的感受是机会很多，可动手之后才发现，大部分开仓都是在区间中间挨打。 先理清一个核心事实：现阶段，大资金没有做出方向性押注。 不存在持续的长线资金进场推升趋势，也没有主力不计成本持续砸盘出逃。场内主导盘面的，是短线波段资金。它们的策略非常清晰：依托区间上下沿高抛低吸。 到压力位，有利润就兑现；回踩支撑位，有承接就小仓位试多。一旦价格离开舒适区间，就立刻停止动作，不会主动去追突破。 这就是为什么每一次看起来要启动的上涨，很快就承压回落；每一次吓人的下探，又总能快速收回。资金共识没有形成，任何单边脉冲，都缺少持续买盘或者卖盘接力。 再看爆仓数据的变化，这是震荡行情最直观的镜子。 单边行情里，爆仓往往是单向连续踩踏，一边倒清算。而现在，爆仓是交替出现：向上拉一波，清洗短线空单；向下插一针，扫掉设置窄止损的多单。 市场的清算The debt from AI computing power expansion is growing larger and larger. Now some people are discussing whether the financing gap that banks can't fill can be covered by on-chain credit in the crypto market. After reading this, what popped into my mind were the machines in the data center: if computing power equipment is used as collateral, what happens if the borrower doesn't repay? Coins are pledged on-chain, and liquidation can be executed by contracts, but machines can't be put on-chain. Then who has the right to enter the data center and actually take the machines away?Nebius will disclose its Q3 report on November 12, with the market consensus expecting revenue of $906 million, a year-over-year increase of more than five times, and a loss per share of $1.24. The real test is not the growth rate, but whether the $3 billion annualized revenue at the end of June can be realized into the year-end guidance of $7–9 billion — the group’s revenue in the first half was only $981 million, so the second half needs to more than double.
The stock price has fallen more than 40% from its June high, closing at $126.58 on November 9, with a market capitalization of $34.4 billion. The Democratic Party’s victory in the midterm elections, the Texas governor-elect’s proposal to pause new data center construction, combined with Microsoft’s increased scrutiny of the “new cloud” projects and Gartner’s prediction that 80% of new cloud providers will be eliminated, have significantly pressured the sector’s sentiment. Citi has already lowered its target price from $324 to $265.
Support remains: $37.5 billion in unfulfilled orders, billion-dollar long-term contracts with Microsoft and Meta, and near full capacity sold out through 2027. However, capital expenditures of $20–25 billion and nearly $10 billion in convertible bonds determine whether this report card will be impressive. The key lies in the pace of capacity ramp-up and cash flow, not the reported growth rate. #NebiusAI云业务高速增长迎来财报检验 SNDK at $820, are you bottom-fishing or catching a falling knife?
From 2300 down to 820, halved twice. Revenue surged 378%, EPS beat expectations, $5 billion buyback—yet the stock price crashed like a dog. On the eve of the stock split, is 820 the golden pit for AI storage, or a meat grinder halfway up the mountain?
First, look at the surface: explosive earnings report, but the stock price collapsed.
On October 29, the earnings report showed revenue of 11 billion, up 378% year-over-year; data center revenue 4.8 billion, up a staggering 1600%; gross margin 85%; $5 billion buyback; and an 8-for-1 stock split announced. For any company, this would be a script for a limit-up. Instead, SNDK crashed from 2300 to 820, down over 60%. Earnings reports are like a truth mirror, stock price is an emotion gauge—the better the performance, the harder the sell-off.
Why? Because expectations were already maxed out. Everyone knows about the AI storage super cycle. You buy the “future,” sell the “realization.”
First point: this is not a fundamental collapse, it’s a leverage collapse.
AI training, inference, KV cache, data centers—all consuming storage. Enterprise SSDs already account for nearly half of NAND shipments, supply is tight through 2027. The company is debt-free, cash-rich, with long-term contracts locking capacity, and customers prepaying deposits.
Is the fundamental strong? Yes. But perpetual contract funding rates have been positive—longs are paying to hold positions. When the earnings beat came out, leveraged longs collectively panicked; this is not value destruction, it’s leverage cleansing.
Second point: the stock split is not a positive, it’s a truth mirror.
On November 19, the 8-for-1 split takes effect, with record date November 9. Many get excited hearing “stock split”: “It’s cheaper now, time to buy!”
Wake up. A stock split doesn’t change any fundamentals, only the per-share price. It’s candy for retail investors, not meat for institutions. Liquidity expands and volatility intensifies before and after the split, so price spikes will be even sharper. You think 820 is the bottom, after the split it becomes 102, but you can still get swept out by a spike.
What really matters is whether the 800-820 demand zone holds. If it holds, post-split is a new narrative; if not, expect 750-780.
Third point: the AI storage cycle isn’t over, your patience is.
TrendForce raised the 2026-2027 memory market size forecast, NAND supply-demand imbalance continues, Agentic AI further boosts storage demand. SanDisk’s backlog is huge, gross margin 85%, this is not a cyclical peak bubble, it’s structural shortage.
But you must distinguish: correct mid-to-long-term logic doesn’t mean short-term prices won’t crash. From 2300 to 820, what fell was valuation excess and sector sentiment, not AI storage demand. Analysts’ average target price is still above 2000, but that’s a one-year outlook.
Bull vs. bear, judge for yourself
On one side:
Revenue +378%, data center +1600%, gross margin 85%
$5 billion buyback, no debt, cash rich
NAND shortage continues to 2027, pricing power in hand
Strong demand zone 800-820, oversold rebound momentum
Post-split retail inflow, liquidity expansion
On the other side:
60% drop from 2300, lower highs and lows, bearish structure
Positive perpetual funding rates, long leverage still present, liquidation risk not cleared
Semiconductor/AI sector overall correction, linked to BTC/Nasdaq
Volatility intensifies around split, high spike risk
Memory cyclicality, AI CapEx slowdown means Davis double kill
Key levels
Resistance above: 900-950 → 1000-1100 → 1200+
Support below: 800-820 (strong demand) → 750-780 (breakdown target)
Trading strategy
Conservative bulls:
Scale in lightly at 800-820, total position 5-10%, leverage ≤5-10x. Strict stop loss below 780. First target 900-950, second target 1000+. Add positions on volume-supported hold above 850-900 with higher lows. Avoid all-in; building positions gradually on pullbacks is better.
Short-term traders:
Wait and watch, enter small longs on 4H volume surge or breakout of short-term downtrend, quick profit-taking. If rebound meets resistance at 900-950 with weak volume, consider light short positions targeting 820/800 retest. Below 800, trend continuation short but beware oversold bounce.
Long-term believers:
If you believe in the AI storage cycle, 800-820 is a region worth scaling in gradually. Use spot tokens or low leverage; avoid high-leverage perpetual bets on the split. Liquidity traps abound around the split; staying alive is more important than bottom-fishing.
SNDK now looks like Nvidia in 2022—
Explosive earnings, stock halved, everyone said “cycle topped.” What happened? AI came, from 100+ to over 1000.
$BTC $SNDK $NVDA #Vitalik重提ETH价值存储定位，手续费销毁还是核心吗？
The leader has something to say
I came across Vitalik's post and first looked at the market reaction: ETH dropped over 5% overnight, and the ETH/BTC rate hit a new phase low. Vitalik said ETH's long-term value should come more from its value storage attribute rather than mainly relying on fee burning for valuation; the EIP-1559 burning mechanism should be retained, but the burn volume does not outweigh new issuance, which does not mean Ethereum has failed. What he truly values are decentralization, security, censorship resistance, and the real demand for RWA and collateral scenarios.
My interpretation is: Vitalik is "demystifying" for the community. In recent years, Ethereum's narrative treated EIP-1559 burning and deflation as the core valuation anchor. Once network activity declines and burning falls short of expectations, the market panics. He is actually saying: don't tie valuation to a single mechanism; ETH's foundation is its decentralized infrastructure status. For the crypto space, ETH/BTC weakening indicates funds are concentrating from altcoins to BTC, a typical risk-averse behavior in a bear market.
BTC is currently around 75,000, consolidating Monday night. My approach: ETH weakening against BTC signals risk aversion, so I won't catch ETH's bottom; for BTC, I won't chase above 75,000, and if it breaks below 74,500, look toward 73,000. Tonight are RKLB and ASTS earnings reports; I'll decide direction after the US stock market opens.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; please stay safe. $BTC $ETH $SOL SoftBank will announce its fiscal year 2027 Q2 results on November 10. The market focus is not on revenue, but on the balance sheet after the $64.6 billion bet on OpenAI: net interest-bearing debt rose to ¥10.8 trillion as of the end of June, and in September it issued $11.1 billion in bonds with a record 9.75% coupon; the five-year CDS spiked to 466 basis points, a four-year high.
The optimistic scenario is that an upward revaluation of OpenAI brings book gains, replicating last year's impressive net profit for the same period; however, with OpenAI's IPO delayed until 2027, new financing cooling off, and tighter data center regulations after the U.S. midterm elections, paper gains hardly mask cash flow pressure. The Vision Fund's profit plunged 99% year-on-year last quarter, warning of its reliance on valuation reappraisals.
Whether the results will be impressive depends on the extent of fair value revaluation and the stance on financing plans. If leverage continues to rise and collateral is restricted, no matter how good the profits look, the stock price will remain under pressure. #软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ 以太坊创始人Vitalik Buterin发表长文，重新讨论ETH的价值来源。他认为，与其将ETH视为依靠手续费销毁支撑估值的代币，不如更加重视其作为价值储存资产（Store of Value，SoV）的定位。这一观点意味着，以太坊的价值逻辑可能需要重新审视：ETH的长期价值，不一定来自更高的Gas费用和更多的代币销毁，而可能来自以太坊自身的去中心化、安全性、抗审查能力，以及作为全球资产基础设施的稳定性。Vitalik强调，EIP-1559及其手续费销毁机制仍然有价值，应该继续保留。但即使未来手续费销毁量长期低于实现收支平衡所需水平的10%，也不必因此失望，因为ETH的价值来源并不局限于手续费销毁。一、手续费销毁，真的能够支撑ETH估值吗？过去几年，ETH的一项重要估值逻辑是：以太坊网络使用量越大，产生的Gas费用越多，销毁的ETH就越多，进而减少供应量，支撑代币价格。这种逻辑可以用净现值（NPV）模型解释：代币市值=年度手续费销毁价值÷贴现率例如，一种代币每年稳定销毁价值10亿美元的代币，假设贴现率为4%，那么理论估值可以达到250亿美元。2021年至2023年，以太坊每年曾销毁数百The Strait of Hormuz is far from the crypto world, but it is currently affecting the pricing of risk assets.
The US and Iran are negotiating an $8 billion deal: the US will unfreeze these funds, Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz and stop attacks on Gulf shipping, and the US will correspondingly lift restrictions. The deal does not involve the nuclear program. Trump is expected to meet the Qatari Prime Minister on Monday to advance it, Vice President Pence is pushing it, but some senior officials oppose it.
Why does this matter to $BTC? The strait is a choke point for global oil transportation. If passage is blocked, rising oil prices will increase inflation expectations, delay the rate cut path, and tighten liquidity—this chain ultimately hits high-duration assets like crypto. Conversely, reopening the strait is like cutting off this inflation tail.
So this $8 billion is not aid; it’s insurance to keep "oil prices from running out of control." If the deal succeeds, high beta assets like $ETH and $SOL will have the greatest elasticity; if it fails, $BTC’s safe-haven attribute will be reconsidered in trading, but don’t expect it to truly hedge risk—it’s only relatively resistant to decline.
The real disagreement is within Washington: Pence wants the deal, some senior officials oppose it. This means the deal is not guaranteed but a probabilistic event.
What’s worth considering: the market currently treats geopolitical risk as noise, but once it becomes an inflation variable, pricing will adjust sharply. Don’t wait for the headline to react.$ETH Today BTC dropped 2.0%, it dropped 5.4%, 3.4 percentage points worse than the overall market.
The last record of ETH on 2026-11-09 18:30 was $2,108.12, now $2,118.93, up 0.5%.
The low touched $2,063.29, now $2,118.93, still hasn't broken out of the low.
RSI 35.0, weak bias. Support at $2,063.29, resistance at $2,246.22.
Catching a rebound in a weak market is the easiest way to get hit. Wait for it to stand back up on its own before making a move.
First see if $2,063.29 can hold, reclaiming $2,246.22 means today's bearish candle is digested; chasing after that will be too late.
Do you think the support below can hold?
#Crypto #ETH三个币今天都在大跌里，但从低位小幅反弹，上空空单墙离现价收到1.4%以内、向上够到概率仍低，脚下多单墙在1.2%到2.2%。但近期爆仓全是多单，带血的筹码在出，下跌中仓反而在加或平，有人在接刀，小级别有双底试探但1小时都还没止跌。三币处境不同：BTC跌最浅、上空最近；ETH跌最狠接最猛；SOL上下同厚、大户空头占压倒。 $BTC｜阻力 75,749｜支撑 73,492 上空约75,749，离现价+1.35%，清算约5,602万，三者里最厚，向上够到概率约三成。脚下73,492，离现价-1.28%，清算约3,518万，多单墙。 动能上，现价74,441.70，12小时振幅3.65%，布林带宽9.16%，三个里最窄。仓近3小时加了0.43%，微加。量比2.42。爆仓近100笔、约0.16亿，几乎全多单。1小时连着三根收盘往下，5分钟十字星犹豫。大户这边空方占六成多。 BTC就卡在75,749和73,492这条不到2.7%的缝里。上空+1.35%变近了但仍只有向上三成概率，脚下-1.28%中等，跌中仓微加、多单被清。短期看脚下73,492多单墙守不守得住，上空75,749近了但压不动。 $EETH swing whale previously sold after ETH surged in August, and today after ETH dropped, bought back 10,000 ETH (worth $21.55 million). On 8/21, ETH rose over 20% in a day and a half; he sold 13,202 ETH at $2,357, which he bought at $2,250 in May, making a profit of $1.41 million; after this morning's drop, 20 minutes ago he spent 21.55 million USDT to buy back 10,000 ETH at a price of $2,155 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC $ETH Maji sold 6 BAYC NFTs in the past 15 hours, cashing out about $83,900 $ETH The Nasdaq's support at each previous high has been very strong, and now it is near the previous high again. For the Nasdaq, which tends to have short bear markets and long bull markets, a 15% drop already offers great value, a 20% drop is a clear signal to buy without hesitation, and if it drops 30%, thank God for the opportunity. Buy slowly, buy more as it falls, and look back at your account after a few months—these panics won't mean much. Watching the market for an hour this afternoon, every rebound of ETH is weaker than the last, and after a surge near 2159, it clearly lacks sustained momentum.
Currently, I lean bearish; the rebound is weak, and the price continues to be under pressure, feeling like there is still room to test lower levels. However, be cautious of volume spikes and stop hunts on Monday night; don't blindly chase orders.
$ETH perpetual contract bearish strategy:
Short range: 2115–2130
Stop loss: 2165
Take profit: 2085 / 2060
Invalidation condition: 1H candle closes back above 2160.
Personal opinion for reference only, not investment advice.
#USCPIDecemberRateWatch 特朗普周日发帖，公开给参议院那份许可改革法案站台了。法案编号S.5653，名字叫Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act，缩写BAAJA。今晚美东时间17:30左右参议院投程序性票，需要60票才能往下走，不是最终通过。
特朗普在Truth Social上的措辞很直接，说这是“美国能源独立和主导地位的重大胜利”，能把管道、矿山、发电厂的建设速度提上来，降低家庭能源成本，创造高薪工作。他还专门提了一句，法案会把他那个“保护电费用户承诺”写进法律，要求数据中心自己建电、自己付电费，还要给当地社区投钱。
法案里真正值得看的那条
20兆瓦以上的数据中心，不能再像以前那样在“支付现有电网的嵌入成本”和“支付新增输电的增量成本”之间二选一了，得两头都扛。
翻译成人话就是，你建一个够大的数据中心，不能只蹭现有的电网容量，让普通居民分摊你带来的扩容压力。你自己用出来的那部分增量，自己买单。
这个条款放在当下的背景里，针对性很强。最新民调显示，反对在自家三英里内新建数据中心的美国人比例，已经从1月的28%升到了50%。电费上涨、用水、噪音，这些$BTC $ETH The CPI at 9:30 PM tomorrow might be the biggest risk this week
The market expects the overall month-on-month rate to drop from 0.6% to 0.3%, with the core month-on-month rate between 0.2% and 0.3%. But there is a big pitfall this time: last year's government shutdown caused missing year-on-year data, so we can only focus on the month-on-month figures. Any 0.1% deviation will be magnified infinitely by the market.
What we really need to watch out for is the Fed's trump card. Last week, nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, unemployment dropped to 4.1%, and the probability of a rate hike in December has been pushed close to 80%. Tomorrow's CPI is the last data before the meeting; as long as the core month-on-month rate dares to hit 0.3% or even higher, a rate hike is basically locked in.
The impact on the market is very direct. AI and semiconductor stocks have already fallen badly these past two days; if CPI exceeds expectations again, US Treasury yields will surge, high-valuation tech stocks will get hit again, and BTC won't be able to stay immune. Conversely, even if the core drops below 0.2%, it will at most be a short-term breather—don't expect a direct reversal.
My view is simple: don't bet on the direction before the data comes out. This kind of macro blind box is no different from flipping a coin to guess big or small. Reduce contract leverage early, wait for the data to land and rate hike expectations to be digested, then we can see if there is an opportunity to enter on the right side. In this market, surviving is much more important than making a lot of money. #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ Bitcoin took a heavy plunge, but on-chain lending is a different story
$BTC is quoted at 75,006.1 USDT, down 1.1% in the past 24 hours. The drop doesn't look alarming at first glance, but during the hour it fell to 73,500, spot trading volume was nearly 119 million USDT, compared to less than 6 million the previous hour. Although it later bounced back near 75,000, that hour still accounted for about a quarter of the 24-hour spot trading volume. The decline seems moderate, but the turnover volume was very concentrated during the process, and the intensity of the rebound and sharp drop was quite different.
This sharp drop has a specific impact on $AAVE's lending business: when collateral assets fall, the same debt tightens the position. Even if the borrowed asset is a stablecoin whose price hasn't changed much, if the health factor falls below 1, the position can still be liquidated. $AAVE is quoted at 129.61 USDT, down 1.4% in the past 24 hours, having bounced back significantly from around 124. To see if the protocol can withstand such volatility, one needs to check if bad debt remains after liquidations; the token's quick rebound doesn't answer this question.
$LINK is quoted at 10.574 USDT, down 1.8% in the past 24 hours. Its price data is another critical factor: lending systems rely on price feeds to calculate how much collateral is still worth. When the market is stable, no one pays attention, but during sharp drops, whether the price feed updates quickly enough is crucial. If updates are slow, the borrower's interface might look fine, but the next update could directly cross the liquidation threshold. For the protocol, speed must also be accurate; it cannot treat an abnormal trade on an exchange as representative of the entire market.The story of this address is quite impressive in the first half: According to Odaily monitoring, it completed 7 rounds of ETH trades from October 18 to November 6, 2026, with a 100% win rate. On November 9, it increased its long position by 4223.37 ETH, about $8.97 million, pushing the holding to 24,500.49 ETH, currently valued at approximately $52.01 million.
Seeing this, I would also want to take a closer look: someone who has been consistently right and is adding more. But my judgment is that this looks more like a bullish expression from a large position account and is not strong enough evidence to determine the subsequent direction of $ETH.
The reason is straightforward: the 7 consecutive wins describe the past, and the sample size is limited, so it cannot guarantee the next round. The data does not disclose leverage, margin, or other hedging positions; what we see is an increase in long positions, but we do not see the complete risk ledger.
For ordinary users, I think the easiest pitfall is to take someone else's win rate as their own safety net. This is my speculation: if the market reverses later, the risk of the expanded position will also increase, and the previous impressive record cannot offset this.
The reminder this story gives me is: performance can attract attention, but how the position is closed determines the outcome. What do you think? Will this increase continue the winning streak, or will the story take a turn? Will you pay more attention to it continuing to add positions or starting to reduce them? 加密市场迎来一片普跌行情，这次下跌并不是个别币种走弱，而是整体流动性出现真空。比特币（$BTC）跌破75000关口，报74319，单日下跌2.26%，前期小幅反弹的成果基本被吞噬。 以太坊（$ETH）的走势更为凶险，直接跌破 2200 支撑，来到 2122，日跌幅达到 5.28%。行情几乎没有阻力，没有明显下影线，属于买盘被快速冲击，背后是被动平仓和买单撤回，不只是单纯情绪降温。 SOL（$SOL）跌到86下方，DOGE（$DOGE）、XRP（$XRP）跌幅也在3%至4%以上。资金没有在板块之间轮动，而是同步出逃，属于全市场去风险。这种行情和普通回调不一样，属于重新定价，会把抄底反弹的交易者困住，止损盘与爆仓进一步放大抛压。 当下重点不是猜测底部位置，而是观察消失的买盘能不能重新回来。可以留意比特币（$BTC）能否站稳重回 75000，或是以太坊（$ETH）会不会继续领跌。在关键信号明朗之前，价格只是持续下行，底部信号还没有出现。A fatal signal, the bull market of $ETH has most likely already collapsed
Reviewing the Ethereum daily moving averages and comparing the time patterns of the first and second waves in previous bull markets, here are some observations worth letting go of the bull market obsession.
First, the daily moving averages have already formed a bearish alignment. Looking back at history, during a true bull market uptrend, this structure rarely appears, which itself is a strong warning.
Second, the time cycle does not match the standard second wave. This round's first wave lasted about a month, and the current correction has already lasted one and a half months. In past bull markets, the first wave usually lasts 2–3 times longer than the second wave, and corrections rarely exceed the length of the first wave. From a cycle perspective, this looks more like a main downward wave rather than a consolidation pullback.
Third, the way key support levels were broken is unusual. Previously, when hitting 2155 and 2078, there was quick dumping after weekend sideways trading, mainly to liquidate high-leverage positions, without thorough panic selling. A reliable bottom usually requires completely crushing bullish confidence, and from the current market situation, 2050 is unlikely to become a major starting point for a rally.
Overall, a short-term rebound is not ruled out, but expectations should not be too high. The first resistance to watch is 2204; if the momentum is strong, the extreme is around 2330, but it is difficult to open up a large-scale upward space.
Pay attention to cyclical layout opportunities. When suitable signals appear, I will share them on the main page study group.
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ A 15% drop is called cost-effective, this only applies to the Nasdaq
The Nasdaq has again approached its previous high.
Some say a 15% drop is cost-effective.
How is this number calculated:
The Nasdaq has long bull runs and short bear runs; a 15% pullback is considered normal.
In other markets, 15% is just the beginning.
Common misunderstanding:
The premise of buying more as prices fall is having spare cash.
Those using leverage get liquidated first if it drops 15%.
Buying without hesitation at a 20% drop is not something people borrowing money can say.
The liquidation line does not consider cost-effectiveness.
#美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4%
#$ETH #SoftBank's heavy bet on OpenAI, can the Q2 earnings report deliver impressive results? $SOFTBANK SoftBank Q2 earnings: better than expected on paper, AI bet yet to pay off
SoftBank's latest earnings report shows "profit exceeding expectations, structural fragility." Net profit was ¥347.3 billion, exceeding expectations but down 18% year-on-year, mainly due to a one-time revaluation gain of about ¥1.3 trillion from Intel shareholdings, rather than the AI mainline.
Vision Fund performance was dismal: pre-tax profit was only ¥5.427 billion, a year-on-year plunge of 98.8%; the second fund lost ¥80.098 billion, the Latin America fund lost ¥45.892 billion, and the AI portfolio valuation growth clearly stalled.
SoftBank's cumulative investment commitment to OpenAI is $64.6 billion, holding about 13%, with a huge paper gain at one point. But at the end of the quarter, OpenAI's valuation did not continue to rise, and returns heavily depend on the next valuation reappraisal.
The cost of financing is becoming explicit: in September, $11.1 billion of high-yield bonds were issued, with some coupons reaching 9.75%; the five-year CDS spread widened to 466 basis points. The OpenAI IPO is rumored to be delayed until after 2027, leaving SoftBank holding illiquid private equity but having to wait for exit at nearly double-digit costs.
Whether a new round of OpenAI financing can push up valuation, whether the Vision Fund's profit decline can be stopped, and how much more cash AI infrastructure investment will consume remain questions. In short, Q2's brightness mostly comes from one-time buffers; the $64.6 billion OpenAI bet has yet to convert into profit. Paper gains can be polished, but interest will not wait.Those expanding AI computing power are borrowing more and more. Now even the financing gaps that banks can't fill are being discussed as to whether they can be covered by on-chain credit. After reading this, I have some doubts. The market already treats this as a new business in crypto, but hasn't really addressed this issue? Money borrowed from the chain ultimately still needs to be repaid by earnings from the data centers, right? If we only consider the related tokens as new demand without discussing who will repay the money, I think this accounting looks unstable.AI computing power expansion is borrowing more and more money, and banks can't cover the funding gap. Now some want on-chain lending to take over. I've been paying more attention to the on-chain lending sector in crypto, especially projects linked to real-world assets. Here's an interesting detail: the machines are placed in data centers, the IOUs are recorded on-chain, but when it really comes to not being able to repay, how do lenders actually handle those machines?The moment when watching the market makes your palms cold is often not because the price has dropped, but because you realize you haven't fully considered the risks. Has the market truly understood the weight behind this "gentle" letter from Congress? At midday, BTC couldn't organize a decent rebound. I stared at the order book for a long time and increasingly felt this was not just a technical issue. Blumenthal sent a letter to Binance, Tether, WLFI, and Fight Fight Fight LLC, requesting voluntary document submission by January 4, 2027. The wording is polite, but the timing of the signature coincides with when he just took the chair of the investigative committee. The letter points out two things: first, Binance and Tether are suspected of helping Iran circumvent sanctions and handle funds; second, potential conflicts of interest with WLFI. The former directly hits the compliance foundation of USDT, while the latter ties political narratives more tightly to crypto. My own position felt stable yesterday, but today I decisively lowered my leverage by one notch—not out of fear of a drop, but fear that liquidity might suddenly become more expensive. Once USDT is repeatedly scrutinized by the market, stablecoin premiums, OTC spreads, and contract funding rates will move first, then BTC pricing will follow. This transmission sequence is something many people watching candlesticks won't notice. The bullish logic isn't absent either: voluntary submission and the deadline extended to 2027 indicate the process is still in early stages, so the probability of short-term forced actions is low; if document exchanges drag into a tug-of-war, risk appetite tends to lean more toward... Someone grabbed tens of millions of dollars, then turned around and put the money into an ETH long position opened three months ago, which is still at a loss. Having a lot of money doesn't solve the leverage problem.
The UX Link attacker address 0xde8d…9524 holds an ETH long position worth 42.65 million USD on Hyperliquid, 20,230 coins, 15x leverage, opened three months ago. The unrealized loss is 520,000, funding fees paid are 1.47 million, total P&L is negative 864,100, and the liquidation price is 1612.90 USD.
There is an easy-to-miss detail: the unrealized loss of 520,000 plus funding fees of 1.47 million should total a negative 1.99 million, but the total P&L is only negative 864,100. This indicates that some profits were made and partially taken along the way; currently, most of the profits have been eroded.
The real profit killer is not the price. The real bleeding point is the funding fees under 15x leverage: 1.47 million, nearly three times the unrealized loss. Leverage amplifies the position size, funding fees amplify the time cost.
The second thing to watch is 1612.90. This is not a technical level; it is the lifeline of a 42.65 million USD position. Once liquidated, what comes out is a real sell order, not just sentiment.
Finally, a question: if even chips that don’t have to be responsible are being gambled at 15x leverage, what exactly are ordinary people betting on when they use the same leverage with their own money? #軟銀重金押註OpenAI，Q2財報能否交出亮眼成績？ SoftBank's "impressive" Q2 needs a question mark. The net profit exceeding expectations relied on a one-time revaluation gain from Intel's shareholding; the Vision Fund's pre-tax profit, which truly reflects the core investment business, was only ¥5.43 billion, a year-on-year plunge of 98.8%. The $64.6 billion bet on OpenAI contributed nothing this quarter—the valuation remained unchanged, and the gain simply vanished from the profit statement. When valuation rises, profits explode; when valuation stalls, profits nearly drop to zero. This fragility in profit structure is more concerning than the numbers on the books, making it difficult to deliver an impressive earnings report. The lower shadow line in the early morning is more worth watching than the price itself. Have you noticed that when the drop is the sharpest, the buying side is unusually quiet? When I was watching the market last night, I had a very specific feeling: it wasn’t panic, it was calm. BTC and ETH were both dropping simultaneously, but the trading volume didn’t keep up; the order book was thin as if a layer had been pulled away. This kind of "falling but no support" market depth is more alarming than a sharp drop with high volume because it indicates fewer people are willing to act at this level. The original information is actually quite dense. Some public 81000 short positions are still in profit, ETH long positions at 2188 and 2238 were all closed before the drop, and half of the BTC short positions were also closed. Looking at these actions together, smart money isn’t trying to predict the bottom but is reducing positions early and locking in profits. The market is trading not on "whether there will be a rebound" but on "how much room is left for the decline." But there is a second layer that is easy to overlook: when shorts start taking profits in batches, it often means the most comfortable phase of the market is over. Holding half the position is a bet on trend continuation, not acceleration. So the next likely scenario is not a waterfall drop but a grind, repeatedly testing and shrinking volume while moving down, gradually wearing down the patience of those chasing longs. From the sector strength perspective, ETH longs were withdrawn before the drop, indicating weaker influence on altcoins. If BTC continues to drift down, risk appetite will first contract to the mainstream, then spread to altcoins, with the rhythm being "first resist the drop, then catch up the drop." There is also a bullish side: short profits$SNDK has hit a new low again! Still thinking about bottom-fishing? Be careful not to get stuck halfway up the mountain!
These past few days, Haitang has been reminding everyone that SanDisk still shows no clear bottom signal. You want to catch its bottom, but it’s ready to catch you instead.
With the U.S. stock market closed over the weekend, SanDisk consolidated sideways for two days. I was hoping for a decent rebound on Monday, but today’s opening showed no improvement and instead continued downward, breaking through previous lows directly.
What does this mean? Market confidence hasn’t recovered, capital hasn’t clearly returned, and panic sentiment in the market is rising again.
On top of that, the Democratic Party’s regulatory policies targeting the AI industry are still brewing uncertainty. The market is repricing investment and profit expectations for the AI supply chain, so the storage and semiconductor sectors naturally can’t remain unaffected.
Now even institutional funds show no clear intention to bottom-fish, so why should retail investors rush to catch a falling knife?
Haitang’s approach remains clear: don’t rush to bottom-fish; keep looking for shorting opportunities during rebounds!
$ZEC $ETH #US October CPI Preview: Will the December rate hike expectations change? $AKE Perfect recap: logic fulfilled, profits secured!
In the previous share, I clearly outlined a strategy to lightly position long orders at 0.0042, targeting 0.0052—0.0058.
The market was very cooperative, following the expected upward script, rising all the way to around 0.0057, just a step away from our second target! I've already captured this nearly 35% increase! $BTC #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ #软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？
SoftBank's "impressive" Q2 needs a question mark. The net profit exceeding expectations relied on a one-time revaluation gain from Intel's shareholding, while the Vision Fund's pre-tax profit, which truly reflects the core investment business, was only ¥5.43 billion, a year-on-year plunge of 98.8%. The $64.6 billion bet on OpenAI contributed nothing this quarter—the valuation remained unchanged, so the gain vanished from the profit statement. When valuation rises, profits explode; when valuation stalls, profits nearly vanish. This fragility in profit structure is more concerning than the book figures themselves, making it difficult to deliver an impressive earnings report. Global risk assets are all paying the price together!
It's no longer about which coin has dropped the most, but that none are in the green—crypto, US stocks, commodities, all broadly red.
$BTC 74050 continues to test the bottom, $DOGE and similar altcoins are at the bottom of the decline list, retracing from their highs: BTC -70%, ETH -55%, SOL -56%, BNB -74%—this depth of retracement is no longer a correction, it's a standard bear market scale.
The only resilient one is ZEC, down only 32% from its high; contrarian assets often hide the seeds of the next narrative, but it could also be the last group holding together.
AI narrative cools down → global capital deleverages simultaneously → all bubble pools drain together.
In days like these, it's not about who predicts correctly, but who has lighter positions and who can survive until stabilization.
Watch two numbers: when SOXL stops falling, and whether BTC can hold 73500.
Only after leverage liquidations finish will opportunities open up.
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $FIL
Decentralized storage has a compelling technological proposition, but its economics deserve closer attention. Filecoin aims to create a marketplace for data storage through a distributed network of providers. The important question is whether real customer demand can support sustainable storage economics. Capacity growth is useful, but utilized storage, retrieval reliability, pricing competitiveness, and recurring customers provide a much clearer picture of business viability.#软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ SoftBank's "impressive" Q2 needs a question mark. The net profit exceeding expectations relied on a one-time revaluation gain from Intel's shareholding, while the Vision Fund's pre-tax profit, which truly reflects the core investment business, was only ¥5.43 billion, a year-on-year plunge of 98.8%. The $64.6 billion bet on OpenAI contributed nothing this quarter—the valuation remained unchanged, so the gain vanished from the profit statement as if into thin air. When valuation rises, profits explode; when valuation stalls, profits nearly drop to zero. This fragility in profit structure is more alarming than the numbers on the books themselves. $BTC 🔥 Consolidated around 75000 for two days, this is not a bottoming formation, but time exchanging for space!
Previously, we monitored the 75000 support level for a week. After breaking below, the price rebounded and consolidated within this range for a full two days. The thin liquidity over the weekend was expected, but beneath the calm market surface lie very conflicting signals:
Spot ETF funds have turned net outflows for the year, with institutional capital continuously withdrawing; short-term holders' cost lines and mid-term moving averages are pressing above the price, and every rebound is met with selling pressure pushing it back down. More importantly, the RSI has not yet entered the oversold zone, lacking sufficient oversold momentum buildup.
This is not the bottom for a bullish counterattack, but rather a temporary pause by the bears, repeatedly testing support in a choppy grind. Bulls are currently only holding the line to "not continue a sharp decline for now," far from mounting a counterattack.
Reviewing this drop: the high of 81199 was smashed down to 73300, a weekly retracement of 7200 points. Positions chasing longs near 81000 are floating at a 9% loss; with 10x leverage, they face a direct 90% loss. The sharp drop occurred at 5:45 on the 15-minute chart, with BTC and ETH simultaneously dumping volume. BTC bottomed at 73500, ETH plunged to 2063; but after 6:00, the pullback showed a clear divergence: BTC quickly recovered, while ETH's rebound was weak and the repair effort much less.
No single sudden news triggered the drop; post-election regulatory concerns, security incidents, and geopolitical sentiment collectively suppressed risk appetite, causing concentrated selling pressure to surge. The scale of leveraged liquidations remains to be confirmed.$CAKE
PancakeSwap burned 1.79M CAKE and minted 674K in October, cutting net supply by 1.116M for the 38th straight month. Its DEX spans 11 chains; The Flip passed, targeting 88% of swap fees for liquidity providers. CAKE supports governance and buybacks, but burns alone cannot lift value without trading volume and sustained demand.
#CAKE #PancakeSwap #DeFi$RSR $BTC 🔥75000 has been consolidating sideways for two days; this is not a bottoming process, but time exchanging for space!
Previously, we monitored the 75000 support level for a week. After breaking below it, the price rebounded and returned to this range, consolidating sideways for a full two days. The thin liquidity over the weekend was expected, but beneath the calm market surface lie very conflicting signals:
Spot ETF funds have already turned net outflows this year, with institutional funds continuously withdrawing; short-term holders' cost lines and mid-term moving averages are pressing above the price, and every rebound is pushed back by selling pressure. More importantly, the RSI has not yet entered the oversold zone, lacking sufficient oversold momentum buildup.
This is not the bottom for a bullish counterattack, but rather a temporary pause by the bears, repeatedly testing support in a choppy grinding market. Bulls are currently only holding the line of "not continuing to fall sharply for now," far from mounting a counterattack.
Reviewing this decline: the high of 81199 was smashed down to 73300, a weekly retracement of 7200 points. Positions chasing longs near 81000 are floating at a 9% loss; with 10x leverage, they face a direct 90% loss. The sharp drop occurred at 5:45 on the 15-minute chart, with BTC and ETH simultaneously dumping volume. BTC bottomed at 73500, ETH plunged directly to 2063; but after 6:00, the pullback showed a clear divergence: BTC quickly recovered, while ETH's rebound was weak and the repair effort much less.
No single sudden news triggered the drop; post-election regulatory concerns, security incidents, and geopolitical sentiment collectively suppressed risk appetite, causing concentrated selling pressure to surge. The scale of leveraged liquidations remains to be confirmed.The bottom signal has not yet been confirmed; these three price levels will determine the short-term direction
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？
After the midterm elections, $BTC completed a surge and pullback, currently stuck around 74K with repeated tests.
The market has partially digested the result of the Democrats controlling both chambers; the real drivers of price are leverage liquidation and changes in macro expectations.
Next, pay attention to these three price levels:
· 73.5K-74K is the most critical support zone right now, overlapping with the 200-day moving average and the bull market support band; if broken, the price will drop to 70K–72K.
· 75.7K–76K is the cost basis for short-term holders; regaining this level is necessary to establish a rebound.
· The upper range of 80K–82K remains a clear resistance; without sustained spot buying, it is difficult to break through effectively.
My judgment is that this is more likely a key support test rather than a trend reversal; the bottom signal has not yet been confirmed.
Large-scale liquidations and fear sentiment indeed suggest a cleansing effect, and the price is testing important moving average support. However, continuous ETF outflows, the price just breaking below the 50-week moving average, and whale short positions reaching nearly a one-year high indicate they are not optimistic about the short-term trend.
If 73.5K is broken, downside risk increases; if the price can stabilize in this area and return above 76K, there is a chance to form a higher-quality rebound.
Trading advice:
If the 73.5K–74K area shows volume contraction and stabilization with spot buying picking up, consider light long positions with a stop loss set below 73.2K; if this area breaks with increased volume, prioritize defense and wait to reassess near 70K.$DOGE $BTC 🔥 Consolidated around 75000 for two days, this is not a bottoming formation, but time exchanging for space!
Previously, we monitored the 75000 support level for a week. After breaking below, the price rebounded and consolidated in this range for a full two days. The thin liquidity over the weekend was expected, but beneath the calm market surface lie very conflicting signals:
Spot ETF funds have turned to net outflows this year, with institutional capital continuously withdrawing; short-term holders' cost lines and mid-term moving averages are pressing above the price, and every rebound is pushed back by selling pressure. More importantly, the RSI has not yet entered the oversold zone, lacking sufficient oversold momentum buildup.
This is not the bottom for a bullish counterattack, but rather a temporary pause by the bears, repeatedly testing support in a choppy grind. Bulls are currently only holding the line of "no further major decline for now," far from mounting a counterattack.
Reviewing this decline: the high of 81199 was hammered down to 73300, a weekly retracement of 7200 points. Positions chasing longs near 81000 are floating at a 9% loss, and 10x leverage faces a direct 90% loss. The sharp drop occurred at 5:45 on the 15-minute chart, with BTC and ETH simultaneously dumping volume; BTC bottomed at 73500, ETH plunged directly to 2063. However, the rebound after 6:00 showed a clear divergence: BTC quickly recovered, while ETH's rebound was weak and the repair effort much less.
No single sudden news triggered the drop; post-election regulatory concerns, security incidents, and geopolitical sentiment collectively suppressed risk appetite, causing concentrated selling pressure. The scale of leverage liquidations remains to be confirmed.$SOL $BTC 🔥 Consolidated around 75000 for two days, this is not a bottoming out, but time exchanging for space!
Previously, we monitored the 75000 support level for a week. After breaking below, the price rebounded and consolidated in this range for a full two days. The thin liquidity over the weekend was expected, but beneath the calm market surface lie very conflicting signals:
The spot ETF has seen net outflows of funds this year, with institutional capital continuously withdrawing; short-term holders' cost lines and mid-term moving averages are pressing above the price, and every rebound is pushed back by selling pressure. More importantly, the RSI has not yet entered the oversold zone, lacking sufficient oversold momentum buildup.
This is not the bottom for a bullish counterattack, but rather a temporary pause by the bears, repeatedly testing support in a choppy grind. Bulls are currently only holding the line of "no further major decline for now," far from mounting a counterattack.
Reviewing this decline: the high of 81199 was smashed down to 73300, a weekly retracement of 7200 points. Positions chasing longs near 81000 are floating at a 9% loss, and 10x leverage faces a direct 90% loss. The sharp drop occurred at 5:45 on the 15-minute chart, with BTC and ETH simultaneously dumping volume; BTC bottomed at 73500, ETH plunged directly to 2063; but after 6:00, the pullback showed a clear divergence: BTC quickly recovered, while ETH's rebound was weak and the repair effort much less.
No single sudden news triggered the drop; post-election regulatory concerns, security incidents, and geopolitical sentiment collectively suppressed risk appetite, causing concentrated selling pressure to surge. The scale of leverage liquidations remains to be confirmed.$OKB fell below 100, and Wang Duaniao cried!
Duaniao's cost is in the 140-160 range. OKB's last rebound reached 143, originally there was a chance to do T trading with the low buys in the 80-120 range, to sell the previously high-chased buys, and then achieve a low cost.
This time it fell below 100 again, and Duaniao's determination is somewhat shattered. He has now started taking advertisements, after all, he is stuck, and the funds cannot be withdrawn freely because he also used leverage. However, fortunately, the leverage is very low; unless it falls below 50, he will face risk.
To be honest, I think OKB is also a very good asset. Whether it's the compliance license or brand influence, it is top-tier in the crypto space.
But the tokenized US stock platform cooperated by OKX and ICE is facing multiple obstacles. The market originally favored RWA as the main narrative, but now it not only failed to attract new trading volume, but the US stock side is also precarious.
Currently, the overall market is very poor, and liquidity is average. So, the market has once again given an opportunity below 100. Will you buy? Or do you choose to bottom-fish $BTC as a safer bet? $OKB $BTC 🔥75000 has been consolidating sideways for two days, this is not a bottom formation, but time exchanging for space!
Previously, we monitored the 75000 support level for a week. After breaking below, the price rebounded and returned to this range, consolidating sideways for a full two days. The thin liquidity over the weekend was expected, but beneath the calm market surface lie very contradictory signals:
Spot ETF funds have turned to net outflows this year, with institutional funds continuously withdrawing; short-term holders’ cost lines and mid-term moving averages are pressing above the price, and every rebound is pushed back by selling pressure. More importantly, the RSI has not yet entered the oversold zone, lacking sufficient oversold momentum buildup.
This is not the bottom for a bullish counterattack, but rather a temporary pause by the bears, repeatedly testing support in a choppy grind. Bulls are currently only holding the line of "no further major decline for now," far from mounting a counterattack.
Reviewing this drop: from a high of 81199 down to 73300, a weekly retracement of 7200 points, with positions entered near 81000 suffering a 9% unrealized loss; 10x leverage faces a direct 90% loss. The sharp drop occurred at 5:45 on the 15-minute chart, with BTC and ETH simultaneously dumping volume; BTC bottomed at 73500, ETH plunged to 2063. However, after 6:00, a clear divergence appeared: BTC quickly recovered, while ETH’s rebound was weak and repair was much less robust.
No single sudden event triggered the drop; post-election regulatory concerns, security incidents, and geopolitical sentiment collectively suppressed risk appetite, causing concentrated selling pressure to surge. The scale of leveraged liquidations remains to be confirmed.