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#伯克希尔Q3回购96亿美元，现金储备创新高 Berkshire repurchased $9.6 billion in Q3, the highest this year, with cash and short-term U.S. Treasury holdings rising to $377.4 billion, setting a new record. While aggressively buying back its own shares, cash reserves have not decreased but increased, signaling that in the current U.S. stock market environment, low-priced, high-quality acquisition targets meeting Berkshire's standards are scarce. The new management under Abel believes that the cost-performance ratio of its own stock is better than most external assets, which is why they chose to increase buybacks.
Notably, this quarter Berkshire slightly net sold external stocks, a shift from the continuous net buying stance in the first half of the year, indicating a rise in defensive positioning. The high cash position allows it to continue earning high-yield U.S. Treasury returns on one hand, and on the other hand, retain ammunition to wait for significant market corrections and opportunities where quality assets are undervalued.
At the same time, earnings in the financial report have declined, with insurance and investment income under pressure, indicating that both real economy and securities investments are challenging currently. For the market, Berkshire's high cash is a "crisis reserve," but the reluctance to make large moves also indirectly reflects institutional caution toward current U.S. stock valuations. Key follow-ups include the pace of future buybacks, whether large acquisitions materialize, and changes in U.S. Treasury yields. $BTC $ETH $SNDK 市场最危险的时候，往往不是利空已经出现，而是所有人都在等待同一个答案。 北京时间11月10日21:30，美国10月CPI即将公布。这是12月美联储议息会议前最后一份完整的通胀报告。对于当前的全球金融市场而言，这次数据的重要性可能远超一次普通的经济指标公布。 因为市场已经提前给出了自己的判断：美国经济仍然具有韧性，通胀可能没有想象中那么容易降下来，美联储的货币政策或许需要比预期更加鹰派。 现在真正的问题是，这种预期是否已经被市场充分定价？ 一、市场正在重新定价美联储的紧缩周期 上周五公布的美国10月非农就业报告明显强于市场预期，新增就业16.5万人，远高于预期的6.5万人，失业率下降至4.1%。 这组数据传递出的信号非常明确：美国就业市场仍然具有较强韧性，经济并没有表现出足够明显的降温迹象。 在就业数据超预期之后，市场对12月加息25个基点的押注已经升至约80%。相比此前美股大幅调整期间约67%的水平，利率预期发生了明显变化。 这意味着市场正在从此前期待货币政策转向，逐渐转向接受高利率可能维持更长时间的现实。 但这里有一个关键问题：就业强劲并不等于通胀必然反弹。非农数据决定了美联储是否有$SNDK 🫀 Regarding SanDisk's stock split, I don't think there's a need to be too anxious.
A stock split basically just lowers the unit price, adjusts the holding quantity proportionally, and the total value doesn't disappear out of thin air. With a lower price, the entry barrier is reduced, and liquidity might improve.
But what really matters isn't the stock split, it's the position size.
SanDisk has dropped from around 1900 to about 800, a nearly 58% decline, with heavy trapped positions above. Currently, long accounts consistently hold about 86%-90%, and the long-short ratio can even reach 6.5-9 times.
So I've been wondering, is 800 really the bottom?
If I were the main force, with so many trapped positions above and a bunch of leveraged longs below, why would I rush to push it up?
The stock split isn't scary; what we really need to guard against is that 800 might not be the bottom.
With heavy trapped positions above and an imbalanced long-short ratio, without major positive news, a quick V-shaped recovery is unlikely. It looks more like a downward choppy grind, slowly finding the bottom.
For longs that are trapped, I prefer to do T trading to reduce cost; stubbornly holding to break even costs too much time.
For now, I see the bottom area around 550-720.
If it can't hold near 750, then this area will likely be tested.
Long term, I still remain optimistic about SanDisk, but being optimistic long term and bearish short term are not contradictory.
The worst is using long-term logic to justify short-term trapped positions.
$BTC
Just my personal opinion, feel free to discuss $SNDK Some say the US and Iran are close to a peace deal, and a bull market in crypto is coming❓
First, you need to figure out: Does the US definitely want to fight Iran?
1. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, through which a large amount of global oil passes. If Iran gets out of control, oil prices can easily skyrocket, directly impacting US inflation and disrupting the Federal Reserve's rate cut schedule.
#美伊外交斡旋持续，霍尔木兹通航分歧待解
2. Iran has strong influence in the Middle East, supporting regional militias, directly challenging the US and Israel's layout in the region.
3. The US wants Iran to completely abandon its nuclear development, neuter its countermeasures, and lose its bargaining chips against the US.
Why are the US-Iran negotiations repeatedly dragging on, with Iran unwilling to concede?
Nuclear-related capabilities are Iran's "life-saving trump card."
With nuclear deterrence, opponents hesitate to act rashly; if Iran completely abandons its nuclear program, it loses its hard bargaining chips and will be at the mercy of US sanctions and control, with no security guarantees.
So Iran's negotiation bottom line is very firm. They may negotiate temporary ceasefires or compromises on the strait, but will not easily concede on nuclear issues.
This is why this round of negotiations is destined to be a tug-of-war!
What do you think will be the final outcome between the US and Iran?
A. Reach a temporary agreement, only easing tensions in the strait, shelving nuclear issues, and temporarily reducing risks.
B. Nuclear red lines fail to be agreed upon, leading to a breakdown, renewed conflict expectations, and a resurgence of safe-haven markets.
C. Long-term stalemate and tug-of-war, with fluctuating news and ongoing volatile shakeouts. The earnings report hasn't been released yet, but the stock price has already risen 15%.
Rocket Lab will release its Q3 earnings after the US market closes tonight, with market expectations of revenue around $257 million and a loss of $0.067 per share.
RKLB is currently about $53.1, up from the last close of $46.02, with today's high reaching $53.10 and trading volume higher than usual.
Before the earnings report, funds are rushing in, betting on revenue growth and news of Neutron's maiden flight.
Interestingly, the entire crypto market is down today: BTC at 74,208 down 2.2%, ETH at 2,103 down 5.9%, XRP down 6.1%, clearly money is flowing out.
RKLB has dropped about 37% from the high of 85.44 in August, and today's rise hasn't even reached halfway back.
I'm still watching and not chasing: only if the earnings beat expectations and revenue growth holds can it be considered stable; if Neutron's launch is delayed again in the call, today's 15% gain is just borrowed.
When the earnings come out, do you think it will continue to rise or pull back first?
$RKLB
#RocketLab财报24-hour spot fund data released! Significant divergence among multiple assets, SOL and USDC continue to attract funds, BTC shows violent short-term inflow, ETH still outflowing on the daily chart
📊 Fund statistics for each coin:
✅ $BTC
6h: Net inflow of 54.6661 million U
8h: Net inflow of 59.2223 million U
12h: Net inflow of 8.8961 million U
24h: Net outflow of 18.1542 million U
✅ $ETH
6h: Net inflow of 27.0334 million U
8h: Net inflow of 27.6289 million U
12h: Net outflow of 43.5007 million U
24h: Net outflow of 41.7146 million U
✅ $SOL
6h: Net inflow of 11.2044 million U
8h: Net inflow of 12.4726 million U
12h: Net inflow of 7.0149 million U
24h: Net inflow of 13.0172 million U
Core analysis (based on market updates):
The daily level has not completely reversed yet; ETH and XRP are still generally in outflow, with medium-term selling pressure slowly releasing. However, short-term inflow signals are already strong, with BTC and ETH seeing significant bottom-fishing entries at 6 to 8-hour levels, and SOL attracting funds across all timeframes, with on-exchange liquidity continuously replenishing.
In short, it's a process of selling while absorbing; the aftershocks on the daily chart are not over, but bottom-fishing funds are already accumulating in batches. Tomorrow night at 9:30 PM (Beijing time, November 10, 21:30), the US October CPI will be released.
As a newbie, this is the first time I've seriously marked it on my calendar because this might be the last key data before the December rate hike.
Let's look at the expectations first: overall CPI is expected to rise 0.3% month-over-month, previous value 0.6%; core CPI is expected to rise 0.2%, previous value 0.3%. Last week’s October nonfarm payrolls added 165,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. The market’s bet on a 25 basis point rate hike in December has already risen to about 80%.
There’s a detail I almost didn’t understand: last year the US government shutdown caused missing year-over-year data this time, so everyone can only focus on month-over-month data. That means even a 0.1% deviation could be amplified by the market.
How exactly does the CPI affect my account? I understand the chain like this: CPI beats expectations, rate hike expectations strengthen, US Treasury yields rise, high-valuation tech stocks and risk assets like BTC come under pressure; conversely, if CPI is below expectations, at most it’s a short-term breather and doesn’t mean a market reversal.
So now I’m not guessing the data nor planning to bet on the direction in advance. Leveraging in before the data comes out is not much different from flipping a coin. What I can do is treat tomorrow night as an observation point to see how the market digests it, rather than betting on an answer beforehand.
Will you adjust your positions ahead of the CPI, or wait for the data to land before making a move? OKB is currently trading at $OKB 98.03, navigating a persistent downtrend from its recent high of 143.32. The 1D chart reveals the price attempting to consolidate near a crucial psychological support zone around 95.55. The MA5 is flattening out near 102.18, but the MA10 and MA20 remain overhead as strong resistance.
Will the bulls step in here to defend the psychological $OKB 100 mark, or will the bears force a harsh retest of the lower support?$KORU The Korean index is still falling! After so long of market rescue efforts, are retail investors still the ones paying the price?
Those still stubbornly holding onto the Korean index probably have a bit of a broken mindset by now. Every time it drops, someone says the government will rescue the market; every time it rebounds, someone thinks the bottom has been reached. But as soon as money goes in, the market turns around and hits you with a bearish candle.
The problem with the Korean stock market now is not just short-term negative sentiment, but also doubts about subsequent policies and market confidence. Today they call for market rescue, tomorrow there are all kinds of policy battles. What retail investors really want to see is sustained capital support, not repeated verbal bottom-line assurances.
Today the Korean index hit a low near 6.09 again; the morning rebound couldn’t hold and it continued to weaken. How many people are still thinking about bottom-fishing at this level? I guess quite a few have shifted from initially being firmly bullish to now just hoping to break even.
I’m not saying the Korean index has no chance to rise in the future, but at this stage, if I had to choose between the Korean index and storage leaders, I would lean more towards core names like Hynix and Samsung.
The reason is simple: the Korean index reflects the entire market’s expectations, influenced by policies, exchange rates, capital flows, and many industry weightings; whereas Hynix at least has relatively clear industrial logic support from AI computing power, HBM, and storage demand.
Instead of putting funds into an index that requires waiting for overall market confidence to recover, it’s better to focus on core companies that truly benefit from AI industry demand.
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ #软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ Here are my several viewpoints
1. If only looking at net profit figures: there is a probability of delivering an impressive report, provided that OpenAI's current valuation holds and is not significantly downgraded, and the fair value of equity continues to contribute substantial unrealized gains; this is also the underlying logic behind many short video discussions on this topic.
2. If considering real operational quality and cash flow: it is hard to call it "impressive." Profits heavily depend on the valuation fluctuations of an unlisted AI company, resulting in highly volatile performance, typical of a high-risk, high-volatility investment-type financial report, not stable profitability from the main business.
3. To summarize the core of this headline in one sentence: whether SoftBank's Q2 financial report looks good essentially bets on whether OpenAI's valuation can remain stable and rise; the numbers may look good, but this brilliance is very fragile and not solid operational results.$DOT
Continuously tracking and holding DOT spot for over 5 years, summarizing the advantages of Ethereum and the JAM protocol
Ethereum advantages: extremely strong network effects (developers, liquidity, tools, users), battle-tested ecosystem, active L2 innovation. Suitable for scenarios requiring deep integration with existing DeFi/applications.
JAM advantages: architecturally pursues higher native parallelism and unified security, attempting to solve the problem of "reduced composability after scaling." It is more like integrating "native shard execution + shared state environment" into the L1 layer, rather than relying on external L2.
Relationship: not simply an "Ethereum killer," but an attempt with a different philosophy. Ethereum follows the "lightweight L1 + specialized L2" route; JAM bets on "a general-purpose L1 built with high parallelism and mostly consistent state." The two may be complementary (for example, JAM can serve as high-performance computing/rollup infrastructure) rather than complete replacements.#SoftBank bets heavily on OpenAI, can the Q2 earnings report deliver impressive results? Here are my several viewpoints
1. If only looking at net profit figures: there is a chance to deliver an impressive report, provided OpenAI's current valuation holds and is not significantly downgraded, and the fair value of equity continues to contribute a large amount of unrealized gains; this is also the underlying logic behind many short videos discussing this topic.
2. If looking at real operational quality and cash flow: it is hard to call it "impressive." Profits heavily depend on the valuation fluctuations of an unlisted AI company, with highly volatile performance, representing a typical high-risk, high-volatility investment-type earnings report, not stable profitability from the main business.
3. To summarize the core of this headline in one sentence: whether SoftBank's Q2 earnings report looks good essentially bets on whether OpenAI's valuation can hold steady and rise; the numbers may look good, but this brilliance is very fragile and not solid operational results. The data from $BTC Hyperliquid is quite interesting; these whales are now almost all shorting BTC.
The short positions have piled up to over $900 million, twice the size of the long positions, hitting a recent high. The largest single position is $178 million, with an average entry price at 76400.
However, seeing this data, it actually feels like the shorts are a bit too crowded. So many people are betting on a drop, but if BTC doesn't fall at this level and instead rebounds slightly, these people will definitely rush to close their positions to stop losses.
When the buy orders from closing positions come out, it could very well push the price up directly, triggering a short squeeze. It all depends on whether the shorts can successfully push the price down or end up being harvested by the bulls.盘面刚弹出一条快讯时，我正盯着SOL的持仓曲线发呆。 一根针插下来，你猜是消息先动，还是杠杆先扛不住？ 上海陆家嘴那场线下活动被紧急叫停的事，传得比K线还快。Citibank外墙的广告位、Accelerate China 2026的场地，筹备到一半被央行联合地方金融监管、公安和市场监管按下暂停键。定性很明确：SOL本质是虚拟货币，境内推广触碰了2月八部门通知的红线，后续还要追查相关主体。OKX报价87.38美元，24小时跌1.93%，成交约6712万USDT，日内低点摸到84.98。 我第一反应不是"利空落地"，而是去看衍生品那端的表情。这种合规类消息最微妙的地方在于，它不打协议、不打链上，只切品牌曝光和线下入口。也就是说，基本面叙事没被证伪，但边际增量被掐了一截。真正先反应的往往是杠杆：消息出来前后，短线持仓容易堆在同一个方向，资金费率一旦偏热，这种针形波动就是挤压的温床。低点84.98到现价87附近这段回抽，更像是一次杠杆清洗后的呼吸，而不是趋势定调。 偏多的逻辑在于，链上协议没停，生态开发没停，被限制的是境内营销通道，属于预期内的合规摩擦，恐慌盘释放完反而轻装。偏空的风险则藏在细Basically falling, but Arb is rising!
In the Binance hack incident, the Arb Security Council froze 74.55 million ARB and 840,000 ETH in one wallet. Binance has officially requested to send this money back to the designated wallet. The vote hasn't started yet, but the market is already blocking it—either returning to the exchange or being handled by the DAO, both sides are positive! $ARB #Looking at the xQQQ to USDT daily chart trading at 661.37, the market shows signs of trying to stabilize after a massive selloff. Just like the sharp drop from the 747.07 high down to the 640.32 bottom, this asset has a history of brutal swings. Remember when it plunged heavily in late October and early November, only to find strong buyer defense near the lows? Right now, we are seeing a small bounce up by nearly one percent, but moving averages like the MA20 sitting higher at 691.56 prove that NVDA at $176, do you dare to buy?
A single-day plunge of 9%, market cap evaporated by 400 billion, CEO rumors flying everywhere, regulatory threats looming — everyone is shouting "The AI bubble has burst." Just now, the price dropped to around 175, RSI hit 25 in the oversold zone, and the Q3 earnings report on November 17 is just days away. Is this the end of the bull market or a golden buying opportunity?
First, look at the surface: bad news lined up to crush the market, bulls are beaten down and can't lift their heads.
From the October high of 243 down to 176, a drop of over 20% in one month. It broke below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, the weekly rising wedge pattern broke down, and MACD shows a bearish alignment. The news is even harsher: post-midterm election regulatory concerns intensify, export controls may tighten again, CEO personal matters and board investigation rumors pressured pre-market. On November 5, a single-day drop of 9%, market cap evaporated over 400 billion USD.
First thing: what's falling is the stock price, not computing power.
Latest earnings: Q2 revenue 96.2 billion USD, +106% year-over-year; data center revenue 89 billion USD, +117% year-over-year; gross margin 75%. Q3 guidance 108 billion USD. FY2028 preliminary revenue growth expected around 70% — note, this is under "supply constrained" assumptions, actual demand is higher.
The Vera Rubin platform has already started shipping, accounting for about 20% of data center revenue next quarter. Big customers like AWS are still increasing orders.
In plain language: AI demand hasn't collapsed, orders haven't collapsed, gross margin hasn't collapsed. What collapsed is your leverage and sentiment.
Regulation is a real risk, but it won't kill computing power demand. It will only concentrate the survivors. NVDA is the concentrated beneficiary.
Second thing: the $176 price already factors in a lot of pessimistic expectations.
Forward P/E has significantly declined, some analysts point to a range in the teens. Most Wall Street price targets remain at 250-300+.
Do you know what this means? The market is not pricing in "NVDA is failing," but rather "NVDA can't skyrocket like before anymore." These are two different things.
Customer self-developed chips, memory cost squeezing gross margin to 71-73%, China revenue basically zero — these negatives are already priced in. What you're afraid of now is what you should have feared three months ago.
Third thing: technically oversold, earnings are the turning point.
RSI daily has hit 25-30, the oversold zone. 175-170 is strong support, 164-165 near the 52-week low. Volume has increased confirming selling pressure, but after oversold, a technical rebound can come anytime.
Key event: Q3 earnings on November 17.
If guidance beats expectations and FY2028 growth is confirmed, a V-shaped rebound is not a dream.
If it misses expectations or regulations tighten further, it may dip to 165 or even lower.
Those who cut losses before earnings will likely regret it after, but those fully invested before earnings may also get buried. This is the current situation.
Bull vs. bear showdown, judge for yourself:
On one side:
Revenue +106% YoY, data center +117%, gross margin 75%
Vera Rubin shipments started, AWS continues to add orders
Forward valuation significantly digested, Wall Street targets 250-300+
RSI oversold, 175-170 strong support
Earnings could be a catalyst for reversal
On the other side:
Regulatory concerns intensify, export controls may tighten
CEO-related rumors suppress sentiment
Moving averages bearish alignment, weekly structure weakening
Interest rates 3.75-4.00%, high rates suppress growth stocks
Breaking below 175 may accelerate drop to 165
Key levels
Resistance above: 181-185 → 190-195 → 200-205 (200-day MA)
Support below: 175-170 (strong support) → 164-165 (52-week low)
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Don't heavily short; oversold rebound can come anytime. Hold 175 with volume rebound, light long positions, target 181-185, stop loss 172. If 175 breaks with volume, wait or light short, target 170-165, stop loss above 178. Shorting here risks getting stuck at the bottom.
Mid-term players:
Wait for November 17 earnings clarity. Aggressive traders can build long positions in batches at 170-175 with low leverage, stop loss below 165, target back to 200+. Conservative traders wait to hold above 185-190 before adding.
Long-term believers:
If you are bullish on AI long-term, the value at 176 is already attractive. Dollar-cost average on dips or hold spot with low leverage, target 250+. But be prepared to endure a 10-15% further pullback. Long-term means not watching the chart obsessively, or watching but not panicking.
NVDA now is like NVDA at the end of 2022 —
99% of people thought "The AI story is over," but it went from just over 100 to 240. $BTC $ETH $NVDA This is currently one of the worst positions in terms of odds. BTC is shorted at 73,550, with only 4.7% room down to 70,000, but if it rebounds, it will face resistance at 75,700; ETH is bought at the bottom at 2,110, with layered resistance at 2,157/2,200 above. Neither side is comfortable, the best solution is to stay put. 今天刷到一条快讯，标题写着“24 小时超 100 亿美元仓位被清算”，点进去正文写的却是“超过 10 亿”。标题多了一个 0。 这正是我周初让 AI 干的活：不让它总结新闻，只让它给每个数字“查户口”——数字多少、单位是什么、原始出处、统计时间、和别家对不对得上。 跑一遍，问题还真不少：
1. 清算额：按 CoinGlass 口径约 10.4 亿美元，多单约 9.3 亿；$ETH 爆了约 4.55 亿，比 BTC 的 2.79 亿还多。
2. 明晚美国 CPI（北京时间周二 21:30）：有人说预期 0.2%，有人说 3.9%，其实一个是环比、一个是同比，上月分别是 0.6% 和 3.7%。
3. $BTC 现在 OKX 上 74,900 左右，24 小时最低 73,500。实时价我只认交易所数据，不认二手转述。 但结论我不让 AI 替我下。它负责挑出可疑的地方，每个数字最后我还是点开原文核一遍。AI 自己也会看错单位，它的价值是比我先发现哪里不对劲。 这周本来就绷着，看错一个 0，判断可能整个偏掉。你们周初会让 AI 帮忙做哪种检查？To be honest, when BTC hit 73,751 this afternoon, I thought it was going to touch 73,500 tonight.
But it didn’t hit that level, and climbed back to 74,872 in the evening, also reclaiming the daily EMA200 (74,540).
But I didn’t dare to make a move. The long-short ratio surged to 3.06 at 16:00, now it’s 2.98, and as soon as the price bounced a bit, longs rushed in. I generally don’t trust this kind of rebound.
Also, Nvidia dropped about 6% pre-market, and crypto stocks weakened along with it. The US stock market opens at 22:30, and tomorrow night at 21:30 is the CPI release again.
My plan: watch and wait tonight. If 74,540 holds, wait for the CPI release before making a move; if it falls back, see if there’s buying interest around 73,500.
After the US market opens, what do you think: will BTC hit 75,000 first or fall back to 74,500 first?
Data as of 20:30, personal opinion, not investment advice.
#BTC #CPII’ve never understood this: the coin rose 40.86% this quarter, yet those companies holding coins every day have seen their stock prices drop at least 37% since September 30.
MARA holds 35,600 $BTC, Gemini’s Q2 trading volume fell from 11.3 billion to 3.8 billion, DeFi Development took 2.6 million $SOL but it’s still not enough, so they raised the preferred stock dividend rate from 13% to 14% to borrow money.
It’s like people guarding a gold mountain running to a pawnshop. The market may have never really bought the coins they hold.一笔小仓位持有超过半个月，$GRASS 落袋72u、收益率23个点——这不是炫耀帖，而是一个值得拆解的离场信号：当持仓者开始觉得“实在跌不动了”就先锁利润，往往意味着这类资产的边际卖压已经提前耗尽，而不是风险解除。真正值得盯的，是他同时在做的事：一边平掉多头，一边挂上空单。 这套组合透露出当前市场最微妙的一层结构：资金不再赌方向，而是在赌“解锁节奏”和“控盘强度”的错配。$STABLE 的空单目前只赚几个点，仓位没打算关，理由很直接——等这个月解锁，看解锁后的价格再决定。这是把事件驱动当成时间窗口来用，而不是当成一次性消息来赌。解锁前后往往是流动性最薄、预期最拥挤的时段，空头真正吃的不是下跌本身，而是预期差被兑现的那一下。 更值得警惕的是 $CAP 这张空单，持仓者自己都说“觉得亏了”。亏在哪？不是方向错，而是被一种最难缠的走势磨住：跌不动、控盘高、长期横盘，横一段时间再换手继续往上。这种结构对空头是慢性消耗——没有急跌给你兑现，只有时间成本和资金费率在啃你。最怕的不是被打止损，而是“后面还有资金不断接力”的猜想始终无法证伪。 把这三笔仓位放在一起看，结论就清晰了：当前不是单边行情的土主流链上分析（Santiment）把 ≥1000 BTC 的地址定义为BTC巨鲸（鲸鱼） - 最新统计：2044个地址 ≥1000 BTC，合计持有约717万枚BTC，占流通量接近36% 但是！地址 ≠ 真实独立的人/机构，这个是最容易踩坑的地方： 里面包含：交易所冷钱包、ETF托管地址、平台储备钱包，不是全部个人大户。比如一个交易所可能有好几个这种巨鲸地址，其实属于同一家机构。 更细的分层（另一种细分口径） - 鲨鱼：1000–5000 BTC - 鲸鱼：5000–10000 BTC（狭义whale）≈100多个地址 - 座头鲸（超级巨鲸）：＞10000 BTC，不到100个地址，这里面就是MicroStrategy、美国政府、早期巨富、大托管方这一档 两个关键误区 1. 没法精确知道真实“鲸鱼人数”：一个人可以控制几十个钱包；一个钱包也可能是很多用户的钱（交易所），链上只能数地址，分不清背后实体。 2. 不同平台门槛不一样：有些媒体宽松一点，把≥100 BTC就叫大户，这个口径数量会涨到接近2万个地址，不能混为一谈。 简单一句话总结 按圈内最常用的1Ethereum $ETH plummeted to 2050! Has the bull market logic completely collapsed?
Brothers, in this early morning drop,
Ethereum fell as low as 2050, while Bitcoin $BTC, which usually holds strong during big drops, only fell to 73300 here.
What worries me most now is whether the bull market logic has been completely broken?
When the rise started in August,
it was really fierce, Ethereum rose from the 1900s to 2500 in just a few days!
At that time, everyone was still watching, until September.The total crypto market cap rose 40.86% this quarter, but the stock prices of three listed companies have dropped at least 37% since September 30. This week's three earnings reports aim to answer this question.
First, let's look at $BTC exposure. MARA will release Q3 earnings after market close tonight, expected to report a loss of $0.33 per share; last quarter it had a net loss of 611 million and held 35,600 BTC as of June 30. The coins are on the books, but the income statement recognizes electricity costs, depreciation, and impairments, which do not sync with coin prices.
$SOL exposure lies with DeFi Development. Earnings will be released at 9 PM on November 12, holding 2,600,900 SOL, and simultaneously raising CHAD preferred stock dividend yield from 13% to 14%. Using real cash to buy financing patience usually indicates weak stock performance.
Gemini survives on fees. Earnings will be released after market close on November 12, expected to report a loss of $0.58 per share; Q2 trading volume dropped from 11.3 billion to 3.8 billion, revenue fell 38% to $12.5 million. When volume shrinks, revenue immediately follows.
Coin price increases affect the asset side, but earnings reports assess the operating side. The market is repricing what these companies rely on to make money.
If earnings prove that coin price increases have not converted into cash flow, these companies will likely continue selling coins, issuing preferred stock, and leveraging. Once coin sales concentrate, that 40.86% becomes a pressure point. Storage chip stocks collectively undergo a major pullback; can SpaceX's new AI computing power story catch the funds?
Recently, the US AI sector has been really, really disappointing!
SNDK, MU, SK have been under continuous pressure, especially SanDisk, which has taken a pretty harsh hit in this round of adjustments,
leading the market to start worrying whether AI infrastructure investment is cooling down (these chip stocks had really, really surged not long ago).
On the other hand, SpaceX has been performing very steadily recently.
With a $24 billion supercomputing project, Terafab chip plan, and 6,000 space data center racks, Musk is linking chips, energy, computing power, and aerospace together (there's so much news, it's hard to cover it all).
I think SNDK, MU, SK represent the current AI storage demand.
SpaceX is betting on a more long-term infrastructure layout; although related, their valuation logic is not exactly the same.
Of course, SpaceX is not without risks—huge investments, regulatory pressure, and future revenue realization all require time. (Democrats, please don't cause trouble)
Goldman Sachs estimates that the December index rebalancing could bring over $10.9 billion in passive buying, which is also a fund variable worth watching.
Today at the US market open,
I want to see if SNDK, MU, SK can stop falling, and whether SpaceX can continue to chart its own course.
The AI sector is adjusting, but whether funds are changing direction will be interesting tonight.
$SPCX $MU 是不丹（Bhutan），对应的主权基金： - Druk Holding and Investments（DHI），不丹主权财富基金，由旗下 DHI InnoTech 负责运营 Sei 验证节点，官宣在 2026 Q1 上线，也是公开唯一官宣在 Sei 上面跑验证节点的主权基金。 Keplr @keplrwallet warned that wallets created using one-click login with Google or Apple accounts are suspected to have been hacked, because the login service provider Web3Auth had a security problem, causing some users' private keys to be leaked. Accounts created with mnemonic phrases and hardware wallets were not affected. Damn it, what is safe anymore? Better RUN first!The CLARITY Act is stuck, and the 401(k) rules have gone into final review—the regulatory line is even harder to read than a K-line.
The topic is hotly debated with progress blocked, but I focus more directly on the market: last week, the spot ETF took a big hit, and BTC has been grinding down from around 76,000 to just above 74,000 now. US tech stocks rebounded a bit before the weekend, but crypto didn’t really follow, indicating risk appetite hasn’t truly returned.
Looking at the 1H chart, the low this afternoon touched around 73,751, then bounced back to 74,818 before pulling back again, with the current price about 74,680. Moving averages are tangled, and volume hasn’t really picked up. Both bulls and bears are weak; no one has a firm grip on direction, and I’m even less inclined to guess in this news vacuum.
My plan is quite cautious: no chasing for now. If it holds above 75,000 and closes there, I’ll consider trying a half position with Ant Group; if volume breaks below 73,751, I’ll stay out before CPI. Keeping position light, with regulation and macro factors overlapping, there are many false breakouts.
Are you waiting for the bill news, or just watching for a market breakout?
This is just my market record; everyone should judge for themselves.
$BTC #美国加密监管：《CLARITY法案》推进受阻，401(k)规则进入最终审查 $ETH experienced a violent deep wick early this morning, with a maximum drop exceeding 7%. After a rapid sell-off, it slightly recovered, leaving a long lower shadow.
Many people thought it was a simple dump, but in reality, it was a triple resonance of macro sentiment + ETF fund outflows + concentrated long liquidations, all reflecting the true market logic:
1. Negative macro sentiment (the root cause of this round of decline)
With the US administration transition completed, the market expects the new Congress to strengthen cryptocurrency regulations, causing funds to panic and seek safety in advance.
Ethereum, as the second largest by market cap and the most compliance-sensitive mainstream coin, fell much more than Bitcoin, a typical amplified negative reaction.
2. Continuous large outflows from spot ETFs (real institutional withdrawals)
Recently, Ethereum spot ETFs have seen consecutive days of outflows, with weekly outflows exceeding the billion-dollar level.
Institutions are continuously reducing positions and loosening base holdings. With no support on the market, as long as overall market sentiment is weak, ETH will break down and fall first. This is the core reason why ETH has been weaker than BTC recently.
3. Concentrated contract liquidations at dawn triggered the wick move
The key point of the early morning market:
A large number of long leverage orders were stacked at low levels.
After a slight dip, programmed mass sell-offs were triggered, breaking through multiple layers of support in succession:
Short-term high-leverage longs were collectively liquidated.
Bots swept the lowest wick points accordingly.
After the dump, liquidity dried up with no one to continue the sell-off.
Funds then slightly bought back, ultimately leaving an ultra-long lower shadow.ARB's surge today is driven by spot buying, while quite a few in the futures market are betting on its pullback.
During the 5 AM hour, it also dropped with the broader market, hitting a low of 0.1599, then steadily recovered to around 0.1814, about 6.7% higher than at midnight. At the same time, most major coins are still below their midnight levels.
Spot volume has truly picked up. OKX spot trading has reached about 6.4 million USDT so far today, with nearly 4 hours left before the day ends, almost matching the recent 30-day daily average.
Futures, however, are acting differently. From 6 AM until now, OKX total futures open interest rose from about 15.45 million USD to around 18.35 million USD, an increase of nearly 19%. Yet, the funding rates have been negative twice out of three settlements today, with the next estimated at about -0.0044%. Prices are rising, new positions are being added, but funding rates are negative, suggesting many are opening shorts against the trend.
My view is that this rally is mainly supported by spot buying. The more shorts pile up, as long as spot demand doesn't retreat, prices will keep rising forcing shorts to cover, which in turn pushes prices higher; but if spot volume shrinks, those shorts will be right. The key to watch next is whether spot trading volume can sustain.
$ARB #Vitalik重提ETH价值存储定位，手续费销毁还是核心吗？
Ethereum currently feels like it's in a high-level distribution phase, and it might plunge to 2096 or even fail to hold that level.🔥 After Bitcoin broke the support at 74835, it had a rebound that reclaimed above 74835 as indicated by the red arrow, but it did not maintain above 74835, and the second rebound's high was lower than the first rebound's high.
If it breaks below 73333, then expect a new low around 72020! Next, watch if Bitcoin can reclaim above 74835 on the hourly level rebound; if it can hold above 74835, the hourly downtrend will temporarily stop, and there is a chance to challenge the resistance at 76184. Remember, only breaking through 76184 can restart the uptrend.
If it can't break 76184, it is just a rebound. Also, look at the position indicated by the white arrow below; for a small double bottom to form, it must break above the 74835 resistance. If it cannot return above 74835, this is only a potential double bottom, not a valid one.
Currently, going long should focus on catching rebounds; don't get ahead of the market structure, it's not yet time to take a structural long position.
🔺 Bitcoin with volume breaks through 74835, aggressive traders chase longs on the right side; on the left side, rebound to 75233 is a light short position with proper stop loss.
🔺 On the hourly level, Bitcoin breaks and holds above 74835, looking up to 76184-77581; if it can't get above 74835, it's useless.
On the 4-hour level, breaking below 73333 looks down to 72020-70800.$PIEVERSE Take profits while you can, don’t go back to square one again, the pump these days has been a bit too aggressive$BTC $ETH rebound requires waiting for capital to return.
There are continuous calls in the community to buy the dip, but real money is still steadily withdrawing.
From November 2 to 6, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $1.282 billion, and the ETH ETF had a net outflow of about $365 million, totaling $1.647 billion outflow for both. A key detail is that on the 4th, the two major categories briefly turned to net inflows, but it was just a flash in the pan; on the 5th and 6th, they again simultaneously flowed out, and the buying momentum failed to sustain.
Today, BTC and ETH prices continue to be under pressure, and the ETF, the most important institutional capital channel, still shows no signs of sustained inflow. Of course, this should be viewed objectively: ETF redemptions do not mean institutions are unanimously bearish. For example, on the 6th alone, IBIT had an outflow of $403 million, but Fidelity's FBIT actually saw an inflow of $42.8 million, indicating significant internal divergence among institutions.
Rather than guessing where the bottom is, I am currently more concerned about whether the outflow scale will continue to narrow in the next few trading days and whether there will be stable capital inflows. A single day turning positive only means someone temporarily stepped in; only continuous multi-day steady capital inflows are signals worth re-evaluating the market.
For intraday market opportunities, visit the homepage Study Club.
#英伟达启动独立调查，管理层稳定性受关注 Crypto derivatives data this weekend reads less like a market and more like a crowding report. Retail positioning in several altcoins has become so one-sided that the risk now sits not in price direction but in who is standing on the other side of the trade. Take $DOGE at 0.071. Its long/short ratio has climbed to 5.34 over four hours, an extreme reading that implies the overwhelming majority of open interest is long. When a position becomes that lopsided, the path of least resistance often runsThe Solana community is discussing the deprecation of durable nonces, triggered by the Drift protocol hack that caused a loss of approximately $270 million. This mechanism was originally designed to keep offline or delayed signature transactions valid for a long time, but it also became a convenient tool for attackers to pre-authorize and later trigger transfers. Hackers exploited this to bypass the usual immediate private key signature constraints.
Regarding direction, there is a mixed sentiment on SOL with a short-term defensive bias: as a fallout from the hack, it exposed vulnerabilities in the granularity of on-chain transaction authorization, which could suppress ecosystem confidence; however, proactively disabling high-risk features and tightening signature logic is a security plus in the medium to long term. For holders and developers, the key is whether this change affects scenarios relying on delayed signatures such as market making, liquidation, and cross-chain bridges, and whether it will trigger compatibility modifications for wallets and dApps.
Meanwhile, Pump.fun continues to face criticism over fee distribution and KOL promotion transparency issues, indicating that Solana's sentiment is shifting from "mill-style token issuance" to questioning platform fees and real value. Regarding the token SOL, sentiment is mixed, with the short-term view treating this as a risk tightening signal rather than a reason to chase gains.
Source: CryptoNews$SNDK SanDisk has dropped so much, is it really done for?
First, it’s important to understand that SanDisk’s drop isn’t due to poor performance, but because the positive news has been fully priced in.
Looking at last week’s earnings report, revenue was $11.03 billion with a gross margin of 85.1%, but the Q2 guidance is only $12.2–12.6 billion, below market expectations; partner Kioxia simultaneously warned that the NAND price increase momentum is slowing, with price contribution dropping 75% quarter-over-quarter. The market believes the "price hike cycle has peaked," shaking the foundation of the high valuation.
Second, regulatory and funding pressures: after the US midterm elections, the Democrats control Congress, raising market concerns about stricter AI data center approvals and energy consumption regulations, potentially cooling AI capital expenditures; combined with the previous rise from $183 to $2354, profit-taking has concentrated, and funds are rapidly withdrawing from high-position AI storage stocks.
It’s now oversold, so a short-term rebound is inevitable. The focus should be on NAND spot prices, AI server procurement volumes, and original manufacturers like Kioxia. This rebound could potentially reach 1000 again.$SPCX is currently priced around 136 to 138 USD, having dropped nearly 15% this month, and fallen almost 40% from its previous high. Many people are worried, but the reasons are quite straightforward:
At the initial listing, enthusiasm was too high, and the price was pumped up too much. Now that the hype has cooled down, those who made money earlier are busy cashing out. With more sellers, the price naturally falls. Additionally, SpaceX has not officially gone public yet, and there is no clear information on when it will be publicly traded or what the rules will be, so people are uncertain and hesitant to hold.
Moreover, the overall market sentiment towards this type of asset has been low recently, with funds flowing out, dragging it down along with the market.
So, what’s the outlook?
In the short term, it will likely fluctuate while searching for a bottom. The 130 to 135 USD range is relatively resilient; if it breaks below that, it might drop toward 120 USD. For a rebound, watch if it can hold steady between 145 and 150 USD—only if it climbs above that will it show some strength.
In the medium term, focus on one thing: whether there is solid news from SpaceX—such as a listing timetable, or significant improvements in Starlink revenue or rocket launch data. With real fundamentals supporting it, the price can stabilize.
In the long term, there is indeed room for imagination, 📉 After a sharp drop, recovery is underway, but bears still dominate! Latest evening analysis of BTC/ETH
BTC retraced to the previous low of 73333 in the afternoon, confirmed support, and has not continued to fall. Currently, it is oscillating repeatedly between 73333-74800.
From the 1-hour level, the retracement low formed a bullish engulfing candlestick, indicating a short-term need for a rebound recovery. But note, both highs and lows continue to move lower, the bearish pattern remains unchanged!
Focus on the resistance at 74800 going forward:
· If the rebound cannot hold above 74800, it does not count as a true bottom, let alone forming a small double bottom.
· Until a valid breakout above 76200, all rebounds can only be defined as "corrections within a downtrend," so don’t mistake rebounds for reversals, and don’t be overly bullish.
💡 Trading idea: Before resistance is broken and stabilized, mainly short on rebounds following the trend, with strict risk control.
· BTC: Short near resistance around 74800, target 73333 → 72000
· ETH: Short near resistance around 2135, target 2090 → 2035
(Markets change rapidly, strategy is for reference only, please control your position size!) $BTC $ETH $ZEC #RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ Geopolitical risks and capital outflows exert simultaneous pressure. Explosions were reported in southern Iran, multiple oil tankers caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz, heightening risk-off sentiment; meanwhile, the combined net outflow of BTC and ETH spot ETFs in the US reached $1.65 billion in one week, with BTC ETFs seeing a $1.28 billion outflow—the worst single week since the end of June, ETH bleeding for the sixth consecutive week, and SOL ETFs ending a 14-week streak of net inflows.
$BTC: Around $74,642, falling below the 75,000 mark, down 1.83%. The 75,000–76,000 range (24h high 76,160) has turned into resistance, while 73,000 (24h low 73,385) is a key support line.
$ETH: Around $2,121, down 5.31%, significantly underperforming BTC. After losing 2,150, 2,050 (24h low 2,051) is the next psychological support.
$SOL: Around $86.59, down 3.44%. The ETF ended its 14-week inflow streak, but charts show a bottom test at 84.81 followed by a long lower shadow and MACD bullish divergence, indicating that volatility is mostly due to short-term liquidity contraction.
For record-keeping purposes only, not investment advice.
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ MORPHO continues to respect a well-defined horizontal trading range between 2.00 USD and 3.00 USD, successfully retesting its major support floor near 2.050 USD with clear lower-wick absorption. Contracting sell volume confirms seller exhaustion as responsive buyers step in to accumulate discounted inventory. Market technicals strongly favor a range-rotation Long position targeting the 2.995 USD ceiling with an exceptional risk-to-reward profile, $MORPHO
DYOR$UNITREE 宇树今天 +9%，不是炒概念。中石油合资落地，从卖机器人变成卖能源基建方案，TAM 直接翻十倍。但 516 倍 PE 也在提醒：这是买 2027 年的预期，不是 2026 年的业绩。短线看资金，长线看出货量。 一、今日盘面：不是反弹，是突破 关键信号：放量突破。今日成交额 51 亿，较上周日均（约 20–30 亿）放大近一倍，且股价站稳 700 元整数关口。这不是散户跟风，是机构在重新定价。 二、为什么涨：三个催化同时落地 1. 中石油合资：从"卖机器人"到"卖解决方案" 11 月 4 日，北京市监局公示：中石油昆仑制造 + 昆仑资本（合计持股 60%）拟与宇树科技（20%）、泛界智能（20%）设立合资公司，主营工业具身智能机器人解决方案，覆盖油气巡检、炼化应急、加油站/充换电综合能源站等场景。 估值含义：宇树不再只是硬件商，而是切入能源央企的"智能化基建供应商"。油气场景对机器人可靠性要求极高，一旦验证通过，可复制到电力、化工、矿山——TAM 从"科研教育"直接跳到"工业基础设施"。 2. 苹果 + 千问合作传闻：机器人"大脑"叙事 今日市场流传"苹果 + 宇树 +The total market capitalization of the crypto market rose by 40.86% this quarter, a figure I've been keeping an eye on 👀 MARA, DeFi Development, and Gemini will release their Q3 earnings reports this week, but the stock prices of all three have fallen since September 30. This is somewhat interesting, but a booming market doesn't necessarily mean companies are actually making money.
I think this earnings season feels more like an emotional test, with an indirect impact on small-cap coins. If the results can prove that the market rally has translated into revenue and cash flow, I speculate that the related sectors will attract more attention; if the fulfillment is insufficient, the sentiment propped up by narratives in highly volatile assets may also be pressured. However, since the stock price and market cap are measured over different periods, they cannot be directly used to prove who underperformed.
My observation sequence is to first look at profit sources, then see if the fundamentals echo in the related sectors, rather than directly using company earnings as a reason for small coin price increases. Recently, is everyone focusing on mining, DeFi, or trading service sectors? What do you most want to verify from this batch of earnings reports? 11月8日周日晚间，比特币15分钟内从75690跌到73477美元，创8月以来新低，随后反弹至74500-75,000区间；以太坊跌破2100美元。导火索是两条新闻：黄仁勋承认婚外情，对象是新加坡数据中心公司Megaspeed前高管，该公司被美国情报机构怀疑帮中国客户获取受管制AI芯片，英伟达董事会已启动独立调查；以及鲁比奥公开称美伊核谈判"实际上已告破裂"。 单看都不足以致命，致命的是时间点。比特币周末交易量只占全周16%，以太坊周日交易量比周六降76%。传统市场休市，加密作为唯一7×24小时交易的风险资产独自消化抛压——和10月底币安被黑的"周末插针"如出一辙，周末正成为全球风险事件的第一泄洪区。同期英伟达盘前一度跌6%-7%、市值蒸发约2700亿美元；美国现货比特币ETF上周净流出12.8亿美元，创6月底以来最大单周流出。 杠杆是第二层推手。24小时内超10亿美元被强平，多头占9.13亿，21万人被清算；ETH爆仓4.48亿超过BTC的2.72亿，单笔最大是4800万美元ETH仓位，一人56667 ETH多仓亏掉4478万。"抄底—加杠杆—被清算"的循环每次反弹都被精确复制：几周 一位交易者把整月工资开出比特币（$BTC）100倍杠杆多头，入场均价75795.58，当前浮亏507.14，亏损率8.33%，强平价75358.52，距离入场价仅有约0.6%的空间。哪怕维持保证金率看着高达209.38%，在百倍杠杆之下，价格小幅波动就会带来权益剧烈变动，容错空间极低。 这里要分清，强平价是交易所自动平仓的位置，不等于交易者的止损。如果能在清算线前主动离场，才有可能避免账户直接清零，但真正考验人的，是能不能扛住短期插针、守住预设的退出计划，很多爆仓都卡在想法和实际执行中间。 宏观层面也给这张仓位增加了压力，超预期的美国非农数据推升了加息预期。这类高利率环境会压制高弹性品种，比特币（$BTC）的百倍仓位就是高弹性的典型代表。以太坊（$ETH）、SOL（$SOL）通常会同步放大行情波动，而 DOGE（$DOGE）、XRP（$XRP）除了大盘方向，还自带额外独立风险。选择这种高杠杆，相当于在容易产生剧烈波动的宏观环境里押注行情平稳。 15 分钟级别行情反复震荡，很容易让人心态被磨坏，在局部低点恐慌离场。这笔仓位更像一次赌行情的押注，而不是成熟的风险分配。比起猜测这单能不能回Since September 30, the stock prices of three companies have all declined, but what caught my attention was this detail: the past in the financial reports VS the expectations in the stock prices. MARA, DeFi Development, and Gemini released their Q3 reports this week, covering a quarter in which the total market capitalization of the crypto market clearly rose.
I tend to focus more on expectations rather than applauding impressive reports. An increase in total market capitalization does not mean every company's profitability improves simultaneously; even if quarterly results are good, it doesn't directly answer whether growth can be sustained. However, a stock price decline also cannot be taken as evidence of poor performance, and I don't want to mix these two things.
So my judgment is that whether this financial report can explain subsequent growth is more important than whether it can prove the previous quarter was lively. Do you stand on the side of "quarterly performance fulfillment is enough," or "it is necessary to explain how growth will continue"?#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 我的答案是会。在币圈这个7x24小时无休、高杠杆泛滥、情绪极度容易失控的绞肉机里，如果仅凭直觉、K线形态或是微信群里的小道消息就去开仓，那不叫交易，叫捐款。把交易账户当成一家高频运转的公司，那么数学期望就是这家公司的商业计划书。没有正期望值的项目，任何理性的CEO都不会批预算。 在币圈这些年，我是这样计算并使用数学期望的：一 用期望值过滤伪机会，拒绝FOMO。 币圈最不缺的就是机会，最致命的也是看似机会的陷阱。开仓前，我会像评估商业项目一样，在脑子里列出三个参数：胜率、盈亏比、以及潜在的试错成本。假设我看多以太坊，如果通过技术面和资金面分析，这单的胜率只有40%，但盈亏比能做到1:3，那么数学期望 = 0.4 × 3 - 0.6 × 1 = 0.6。这是正期望，值得一试。但如果胜率50%，盈亏比1:1，还要扣除合约开平仓的手续费和可能的滑点损耗，这时的期望值极大概率是负数。算出来是负的，哪怕盘面再FOMO，我也会坚决管住手。不亏，就是赚。 二 期望值决定了我的子弹怎么打。 Vitalik’s point is useful because fee burns measure one mechanism, not Ethereum’s whole economic case. If ETH demand in RWA and collateral use cases proves durable, it could matter more than whether issuance is fully offset in every period.
That still leaves a hard question: can those uses grow without weakening the decentralization and censorship resistance that give ETH credibility?
#VitalikETHStoreOfValue Mid-term intelligence report!
ETH and ZEC intelligence are in place, with risks and hotspots coexisting.
$ETH fundamentals sounding the alarm: Vitalik defines it as a store of value, but fee burning only offsets 3% of issuance, and L1 revenue has plummeted 99%. Spot ETFs have seen outflows for six consecutive weeks, supply has increased by over 1 million, foundation sell pressure combined with upgraded vulnerability delays, showing clear weakness.