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🔥The biggest fear in trading is not getting the direction wrong, but having no plan at all and still believing that the next bottom-fishing attempt will definitely succeed!
📉In the past few days, BTC has dropped from $82,000 and $79,000 down below $76,000, with pressure still around $73,700. Many bulls who kept bottom-fishing are now trapped at various levels. ETH isn’t doing much better; market sentiment is clearly weak.
📊Why is this happening? Because many people only focus on how much the price has fallen, without considering whether the trend has reversed. The rebound hasn’t broken the previous high, volume hasn’t clearly recovered, and spot funds haven’t continuously entered. Such a rise can’t be easily taken as a reversal signal.
🛡️I always emphasize that you must set target positions in advance when trading. When going long, know where to set stop-loss; when going short, know where to take profit. No structure means no entry; no plan means no adding positions.
💵Today, I still lean towards caution. I’d rather miss a move than gamble on direction with high leverage. Do any of you still have long positions trapped? #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ 🚨 XPL HAS A BIG STORY, BUT WHY IS ITS PRICE STILL FALLING?
Plasma is building stablecoin payment infrastructure, with zero-fee USDT transfers, payment cards, Stripe collaboration, and growing real-world use.
But the token faces serious challenges: weaker liquidity, past security concerns, and heavy selling pressure from upcoming unlocks — including 228M XPL on November 25.
The real question is: Can ecosystem growth turn into actual demand for $XPL? 👀
#DailyOrbit ANTHROPIC IPO WATCH: VALUATION EXPECTATIONS UNDER PRESSURE
Anthropic is reportedly preparing for an IPO roadshow, with a potential fundraising target of $80B to $100B.
However, the recent AI stock selloff has complicated valuation discussions. Reports suggest some investors are considering valuations between $1.1T and $1.3T.
These figures reflect investor expectations, not confirmed IPO pricing. The real test will be whether revenue growth can justify ambitious
#AnthropicIPOPriceDebate Layer 2 doesn't all rise together; even if $ETH falls, it can still go up
$ETH is at 2,143.77, down 4.2% in 24 hours.
$ARB is at 0.1718, actually up 1.2%.
How is this calculated: the two coins are not synchronized because the payment and the purchased item are different.
Using Arbitrum for transactions, the fee is paid in $ETH.
What $ARB represents: buying $ARB means buying governance rights and ecosystem expectations, not transaction fees.
So when $ETH falls, $ARB can move independently.
A common misunderstanding: both are Layer 2, but $OP is at 0.09985, down 1.5% in 24 hours.
If you say all Layer 2s move stronger together, $OP's market doesn't align with that.
The gain/loss list puts public chain coins and Layer 2 governance coins in one row for convenience.
What really matters is what currency the transaction fee is ultimately paid in.
#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元
#$ETH $ARB Wallet (0xC356) withdrew 34,601 $ETH ($73.75M) from #Binance over the past 3 hours after more than 2 years of inactivity.
Is someone buying a huge amount of $ETH during the market crash?$XAU Some people asked, if Iran gives up control of the Strait of Hormuz, what impact will it have on gold?
Previously, the default old thinking was: if the Middle East stops fighting, the demand for safe-haven assets disappears, and gold will fall. But this time it's different; this easing actually benefits gold, the logic is a bit roundabout.
Iran loosens control of the strait → oil prices fall. Oil prices are a major driver of inflation. When oil prices fall, the market is less worried about inflation surging again. Inflation is no longer scary, so the Federal Reserve has no need to aggressively raise interest rates. Gold does not yield interest, so when rate hike expectations weaken, gold is more likely to rise.
This is not just nonsense from Sister Lu; the market has already confirmed it: after the news came out, gold actually surged, touching around 4110. Overall, this news is only good for gold, not bad. Long positions should continue to be held, with a target of 4147. #US October CPI preview: Will the December rate hike expectations change? VITALIK CHALLENGES THE WAY ETHEREUM VALUE IS MEASURED
Vitalik Buterin argues that Ethereum’s long-term value should not depend mainly on token burns.
He points instead to decentralization, security, censorship resistance and ETH’s role in real-world asset and collateral use cases.
EIP-1559 remains important, but lower fee burns do not automatically mean Ethereum is failing. The bigger question is whether real network utility can sustain long-term demand for $ETH.
#VitalikETHStoreOfValue The New York Stock Exchange is moving stock settlement onto the public blockchain, this time choosing Avalanche.
According to Bloomberg, the NYSE will settle tokenized stocks on the Avalanche blockchain. Tokenized stocks are the toughest and most valuable piece in the RWA narrative. The NYSE endorsement means Wall Street is starting to consider on-chain settlement as an optional infrastructure. Choosing Avalanche over the Ethereum mainnet signifies recognition of its subnet and customized settlement capabilities. This is generally positive for AVAX but more of a sector-level signal rather than an immediate change to AVAX's profit structure.
Scenario one to watch: If real tokenized stock issuance and settlement volume materialize later, the narrative will truly connect with fundamentals. Scenario two to watch: If there is only hype without capital support, short-term price surges driven by the “NYSE + Avalanche” news are likely to be quickly given back. There is still some distance from the announcement to actual settlement volume, involving AVAX and the RWA and tokenized securities sectors, with sentiment leaning bullish.
Do you value the NYSE endorsement more, or will you wait for real settlement volume before taking action?
Source: BlockBeats🔥Some say that carving a mark on a boat to seek a sword is useless, but I believe that studying historical cycles is actually a very practical risk management method in the investment market!
📉BTC has currently dropped back to around $73,700, still some distance from the stage low of $57,800. For now, we can only say that the previous risk assessment seems to be materializing; whether a deep crash like in history will repeat remains to be answered by the market.
📚In 2018, BTC fell from around $6,000 all the way down to $3,000; in 2022, it continued to drop from around $20,000 to $15,000. History does not repeat exactly, but market sentiment, leverage liquidations, and cyclical pullbacks do have similarities worth studying.
💵Last year, when BTC rose to $110,000–$120,000, I chose to exit early based on historical trends and cycle patterns. Compared to blindly believing in an eternal bull market, I prefer to trust the risk signals I have summarized.
🧭Ordinary investors may not be able to accurately analyze all macro variables, but at least they can study historical highs and lows, pullback ranges, and cycle changes. Carving a mark on a boat to seek a sword is not 100% accurate, but it can help you prepare in advance. Do you think analyzing historical cycles has value? #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ 🔥BTC has dropped to around $73,700. What I want to say is: the market trend seems to validate some of the judgments, but the real test may still be ahead!
📉 There is still considerable room from the previous stage low of $57,800. What we need to watch next is whether the market will experience a second round of deep retracement similar to 2018 and 2022. In 2018, it fell from $6,000 to $3,000; in 2022, it dropped from around $20,000 to $15,000. These historical cases are worth studying repeatedly.
💡 Last year, when BTC surged to $110,000–$120,000, I chose to exit early and was not trapped by the eternal bull market sentiment. This was not because I could precisely predict the top, but because historical cycles taught me that the more frenzied the market, the more one should consider the risks.
📊 I don’t think ordinary investors must thoroughly research fundamentals, liquidity, and macro policies to trade. Historical trends, cycle patterns, and market sentiment can also serve as a basis for judgment.
🛡️ However, history can only provide reference and cannot guarantee repetition every time. Today, I still lean towards caution, first observing the rebound structure and not rushing to bottom-fish. Do you think this time will see a second round of decline similar to past bear markets? #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ #تدفع ASTS is a direct satellite communication service via mobile phone, offering commercial progress pending launch
It currently has more than 60 ground gateways under development worldwide while targeting initial satellite coverage on regular smartphones by the end of 2026.
It's great to see telecom company partners helping to fund the ground infrastructure so ASTS can focus more of its capital on expanding its constellation as the commercial service approaches. #Crypto market 24-hour liquidations reach $1.16 billion
【Follow Old Leek, Wealth Is Yours】$1.16 billion liquidated in 24 hours, bulls face concentrated washout
The crypto market has undergone another intense deleveraging round. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation volume reached about $1.16 billion, with the biggest casualties being the bulls betting on price increases rather than the shorts.
During this downturn, BTC briefly dropped near $74,000, and ETH fell to around $2,100. The previously high-leverage long positions triggered forced liquidations one after another as prices rapidly declined.
1️⃣ ETH is the hardest hit in liquidations
According to CoinDesk, ETH liquidations in the past 24 hours amounted to about $501 million, accounting for a significant portion of total liquidations; BTC liquidations were about $305 million. ETH’s price drop and leverage position adjustment pressure were notably severe.
2️⃣ Bulls are exiting en masse, market is deleveraging
Derivatives trading volume increased over 200% in 24 hours, reaching about $180 billion, while open interest dropped about 3% to $127 billion. Increased trading volume alongside decreased open interest indicates a large number of positions are exiting. Note that liquidation amounts represent the notional value of forcibly closed contracts, not equivalent spot capital outflows.
3️⃣ Market risk appetite clearly cools down
$BTC, $ETH, $XRP, and SOL are generally under pressure, and the options market’s expectations for short-term volatility are rising. Investors are increasing downside protection, indicating caution about further pullbacks remains.🔥The most dangerous thing in the market is not being bearish, but when the price rises to over a hundred thousand dollars, some still firmly believe the bull market will never end!
📉BTC has now returned to around $73,700. Although there is still room before reaching the stage low of $57,800, this does not mean the risk has been fully released. If the rebound is weak later and it falls below the previous low again, that is not entirely impossible.
📊Looking back at history, BTC fell from around $6,000 to $3,000 in 2018, and in 2022 it also experienced a deep correction from around $20,000 down to $15,000. The reasons for each cycle differ, but valuation corrections, leverage clearing, and panic emotions after the frenzy often share similarities.
💡When BTC rises to $110,000–$120,000 in 2025, I choose to exit, based on historical cycles rather than shouting eternal bull market with the crowd. Protecting profits in advance is sometimes more important than predicting the peak.
🧭I still believe studying history is valuable, but I won’t assume this time will definitely replicate the past. Today, I continue to watch the rebound highs and previous low structures. Do you think this cycle will have a second deep correction? #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ 📉 $BTC closed below the 50-week moving average, with over $1 billion long positions liquidated in 24 hours.
My view: The market is still bearish, with resistance stacked around $74,888–$75,569, so I won’t chase the rebound.
The $76,239 level has been tested with 6 rallies, 4 pullbacks, 1 breakout (which then fell back), and 1 no reaction; I won’t turn bullish unless it holds above this level.
In the past 27.6 hours, $24.74 million long positions were liquidated, with $11.36 million U.S. Senator Issues Final Ultimatum to Binance: Confirm Receipt Today
On November 5, U.S. Senator Richard Blumenthal sent letters to Binance, Tether, and two crypto companies linked to the Trump family: submit records by the deadline of January 4, 2027, or alternative measures will be considered. The letter to Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao demands confirmation of receipt today (November 9), with the first batch of materials due starting November 30.
The letter is blunt: the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations minority party has been probing for 18 months, focusing on Binance’s anti-money laundering and the alleged $1.7 billion Iran-related transfers. Two hearings were held in February and April, but Binance has not submitted a single record. Blumenthal is now the minority party’s senior member and will become chairman when the new Congress convenes in January. At that point, requests for materials will no longer be "requests for cooperation."
Note the tone: this is not a subpoena nor an accusation of guilt, but a voluntary request for records. However, the January 4 deadline is very deliberate—the new Congress convenes on January 3, making the next day the hard deadline.
Following the shift to a Democratic majority, accountability letters are arriving first.$1.647B LEAVES US SPOT BTC AND ETH ETFs IN ONE WEEK
US spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded combined net outflows of approximately $1.647B between November 2 and 6.
Bitcoin funds lost around $1.282B, while Ethereum funds saw $365M in outflows. BlackRock’s IBIT and ETHA accounted for a significant share.
The brief return to inflows on November 4 failed to reverse the trend. Sustained ETF demand will be important to watch for any recovery in institutional appetite.
#BTCETHETFOutflows1.6B BTC trades near $74,674, down from its $87.4K weekly high. Lower highs and consecutive red candles show sellers still control the weekly structure
RSI(6) at 36.96 signals weak short-term momentum, while RSI(12/24) near 47 shows recovery strength is limited
Support $73.5K, then $70K
Resistance $78K, then $82K
A weekly breakdown below $73.5K could open further downside Reclaiming $78K would be the first sign of recovery
wait for a confirmed breakout or breakdown
#USCPIDecemberRateWatch
$BTC 随着做市商减少周末市场活动，DOGE 的交易深度明显变得更加脆弱。周日成交量相比周五可能下降约 44%，这意味着即使不大的买卖订单，也可能引发更剧烈的价格波动。 📊 接下来重点关注： - 周末流动性不足，短线插针和快速回撤风险增加。 - 周一市场重新活跃，成交量可能逐步回升。 - 但成交量增长并不等于趋势反转。 - 真正的复苏需要更厚的订单簿、更窄的买卖价差，以及持续的现货买盘支持。 我的观点：不要仅凭周一放量就急于看多 DOGE。先观察流动性是否真正改善，再判断反弹能否持续。 记住：成交量代表参与度，市场深度才决定价格能否稳定。 #DOGE #Dogecoin #CryptoMarket #DailyOrbit #OKXOrbitTopicsROCKET LAB EARNINGS: NEUTRON PROGRESS IN FOCUS
$RKLB is set to report Q3 2026 results after the US market closes on November 9.
The company previously guided for revenue of $250M to $265M. Beyond the headline numbers, investors will be watching Electron launch activity, Neutron development and new space systems orders.
Execution and delivery timelines could be just as important as revenue in shaping the company’s outlook.
#RocketLabQ3Neutron TECH REBOUND FACES ITS BIGGEST TEST
The November 5 selloff hit AI and semiconductor stocks hard, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling more than 12%.
Nvidia and AMD bounced on November 6, helping lift the Nasdaq, but concerns around AI spending, data center regulation and high valuations remain.
One recovery session doesn’t erase the damage. Investors need to see whether buying momentum can last.
#TechStocksReboundWatch US CPI COULD SET THE TONE FOR DECEMBER’S FED DECISION
October’s US CPI report is due November 10, with headline inflation expected to rise 0.3% month over month, down from 0.6%. Core CPI is forecast at 0.2%.
Stronger payrolls and a 4.1% unemployment rate have already shifted rate expectations. A hotter-than-expected inflation reading could add further pressure on risk assets, while softer data may ease concerns.
Markets are waiting for the next signal from the Fed.
#USCPIDecemberRateWatch Dare not open more longs, today's crash must have reasons
1. Regulatory concerns rise after the US midterm elections, risk appetite declines
2. Binance $6 billion security incident shocks confidence
3. Tech stock crash transmission, BTC once dropped to around 74780, ETH fell over 7%
4. Over $1 billion leveraged positions liquidated, longs account for about 88%, liquidation triggers chain sell-off
Originally wanted to open another long on $AKE, now dare not move. From 0.006 it has been steadilyI look at the crypto prediction markets and feel they are quite similar to digital options; both have expiration times and require checking trigger conditions. Spot trading is like how much Bitcoin rises or falls, but prediction markets are more like submitting an answer sheet—at the deadline, the rules judge right or wrong, and no matter how exciting the process is, it may not count towards the score.
Odds reveal the market's assigned probability for an event, but when liquidity is thin, the price tag can fluctuate and it's not a leak of divine secrets.
I originally just wanted to see if something "would happen," but just the question of "which exchange's quote to settle by" dragged me into a reading comprehension test.🚨 Ethereum is losing market share, but its ecosystem is far from losing strength!
In 2021, Ethereum and its L2s controlled 72% of app fees. Today, that share is 39%, while Solana has climbed to 31%.
But the bigger picture matters: active app economies have grown from just 6 chains to 16.
Competition is rising, but Ethereum’s interconnected ecosystem remains a major advantage. 👀
#Ethereum #ETH #Solana #Crypto #DeFi #OKXOrbit
#DailyOrbit 🔥US stocks fall, crypto falls, once market sentiment weakens, even rebounds become increasingly difficult!
📉 The most worrisome aspect of this market cycle is the simultaneous emergence of multiple risk factors. AI sector valuation adjustments, Nasdaq under pressure; strong US employment data challenges rate cut expectations again; changes in congressional power lead the market to reassess regulation and industrial policies.
💵 Some say US Treasury bonds have drained hot money from the market, but I think more accurately, investors are reducing risk exposure. Funds are unwilling to chase high-volatility assets, ETF buying has not clearly recovered, so prices naturally lack sustained upward momentum.
🌪️ A black swan event last October, severe volatility again this October. Two consecutive years of market shocks remind us not to take rallies for granted, nor to treat every crash as a buying opportunity.
🛡️ My current strategy is simple: spot trading in batches, contracts for structure, no high leverage bets on direction. Wait for Nasdaq to stabilize first, then see if BTC can volume-wise reclaim key resistance. Do you still have confidence to buy the dip now, or are you preparing to hold cash and wait? #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ On November 9, the crypto market continued its downward trend. Bitcoin hit an intraday low of about $73,500–$73,700, then fluctuated repeatedly around $74,000–$75,000.
Ethereum was weaker, with a significant 24-hour decline, once dipping near $2,060, then consolidating in the $2,100–$2,140 range.
Currently, the market is not facing a single negative factor but multiple overlapping pressures:
Continuous outflows from spot ETFs;
Weakness in US tech stocks dragging down risk assets;
Concentrated liquidation of leveraged long positions amplifying the decline;
Ongoing concerns about future regulation and interest rate paths.
In the short term, watch whether BTC can hold $73,500–$74,000 and ETH can hold $2,100. If these levels fail, the market may continue to test lower support.
🔥Last October was a black swan event, and this October brings another round! Could it be that every year around this time, the market gives investors a lesson?
📊This time, from the US stock market to the crypto market, there are hardly any safe havens. The Nasdaq is dragged down by adjustments in the AI sector, tech stock valuations are starting to be repriced, and BTC and ETH are also under pressure. Originally expecting a rally after the elections, but risk sentiment quickly changed again.
⚠️What's more troublesome is that strong non-farm payroll data has affected market expectations for a Fed rate cut; policy uncertainty brought by changes in congressional power also brings new discussions for the AI industry and crypto sector.
💥So this downturn can't be judged by candlesticks alone. US stock risk appetite, dollar liquidity, ETF fund flows, and contract leverage could all influence the next move.
🧭I'm not rushing to guess the bottom now; first, let's see if the Nasdaq can stop falling, then if BTC can regain spot buying. Keep cash ready, wait for contract structures, and build spot positions in batches. Do you think this October's correction counts as another black swan? #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ When a company holds Bitcoin in units of "ten thousand coins" and increases its holdings, the market's pricing power has quietly shifted. As of November 8, Strategy's holdings were fixed at 850,364 BTC, with assets totaling 4.9 billion USD.
This time, it added 1,036 coins. The quantity alone is not the largest in history, but consider another action it took simultaneously: repurchasing 188 million USD worth of STRC. On one hand, it is adding coins to its assets; on the other, it is reclaiming the tools it issued.
Looking at these two actions together, the conclusion is straightforward: it is not short of money and does not intend to stop. Many companies buying coins halfway rely on issuing bonds or market sentiment to survive; once the financing window closes, they have to stop or even sell coins. Strategy's current state is that it is collecting on the financing side while increasing assets on its own terms, controlling the pace itself.
Therefore, in this round of decline, the biggest potential seller in the $BTC sell pressure is missing. The "whale dumping" scenario does not hold for now. Conversely, $ETH and $SOL, which follow the overall market, lack this kind of support force, so when they fall, no one steps in to buy.
What is truly worth considering is not how much it has bought, but under what conditions these coins will turn back into sell orders. With holdings of 850,000 coins, there are only a few exit channels; if any one of them is blocked, the price reaction will not be mild.$1.28 billion USD has left US spot Bitcoin ETFs in the past week, marking the largest weekly outflow since the end of June.
On Friday alone, BlackRock's IBIT lost about $403 million USD.
After this sell-off, the total Bitcoin ETF cash flow since the beginning of 2026 is negative $914 million USD. $ETH ETFs also recorded their sixth consecutive week of outflows, with $365 million USD leaving the market. $SOL is reportedly set to host its first tokenized stock venue operating under an SEC framework, with Galaxy, Exodus and Forward Industries shares on offer. Formation Securities plans to open it in early 2027.Watched for an hour this afternoon, each bounce is lower than the last, ETH lost momentum after dropping from 2159. I'm positioned short; this kind of grinding feels like it's building up to move downward, not a reversal. But be cautious Monday night, volume picking up can easily cause a two-way sweep.
ETH perpetuals, I'm bearish: open shorts around 2115–2130, stop loss at 2165, take profit at 2085 / 2060. Wrong if: 1H close moves back above 2160.
(Personal opinion, not investment advice)#BTC and ETH spot ETFs see a net outflow exceeding $1.6 billion in a single week. This week, BTC and ETH spot ETFs combined recorded a net outflow of over $1.6 billion, signaling a concentrated withdrawal of institutional funds, creating a negative feedback loop of redemptions and price declines. The core pressure comes from the macro side, with the market repricing a delayed Fed rate cut, U.S. Treasury yields remaining high, and the opportunity cost of cashless crypto assets rising, leading funds to prefer high-yield fixed income products.
Structurally, ETH ETFs face more pronounced outflow pressure. On one hand, ETH's staking yields and ETF products are disconnected, with some institutions opting for on-chain staking directly, diverting demand from ETF allocations; on the other hand, the crypto sector lacks new catalysts, compounded by volatility in U.S. tech stocks and geopolitical risks, prompting institutions to actively reduce risk exposure and rebalance portfolios.
ETF redemptions force funds to sell underlying assets in the secondary market, intensifying selling pressure. However, outflows do not necessarily mean a complete bearish trend, but rather a phase of institutional deleveraging. Key factors to watch going forward include changes in U.S. Treasury yields, whether ETF funds stabilize and return, SEC regulatory news, and on-chain staking data. $BTC $ETH $ZEC 🔥What worries people the most now is not how much BTC has dropped, but that the entire market's money seems to be becoming cautious!
💵 Many attribute this round of decline to US Treasury withdrawals draining liquidity, but the real situation is more complex. The market is concerned about the Fed delaying rate cuts or even raising rate hike expectations again; meanwhile, AI tech stocks face valuation pressure, and institutions are readjusting their risk exposure.
📉 When a significant downturn occurs, investors tend to prioritize reducing positions in high-volatility assets. BTC, ETH, and altcoins naturally get affected. Coupled with weak ETF fund flows and insufficient spot buying, rebounds become harder to sustain.
🌪️ Last October was a black swan event, and this October is another period of intense volatility. The market won't immediately reverse just because we hope for a rise.
🛡️ My approach is to first control risk, avoid high-leverage contracts, and not rush to fully buy spot positions at once. What really needs to be awaited is stable interest rate expectations, tech stocks bottoming out, and crypto spot funds flowing back. Today, do you think the market lacks liquidity or confidence? #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $BTC at 74k is a very critical position, hoping it can hold; if it can't, then brace for half a year to a year of waiting.
Never expected to reach 73k in this way... North Korean hackers and the US circuit breakers aren't as fierce as Huang Renxun's moves. I originally planned to go all-in on a black swan event, only to realize this is the real black swan 😭
This morning, retail investors were still very bullish, but the main players withdrew all large orders above 65k. Now retail is still enthusiastically long, while the main players have placed large orders at 70k. Strong altcoins are no longer hitting recent lows, but BTC is still probing the bottom, which is very rare...
The over 10k pullback I called at the end of September has already happened, a 13,000 dollar drop, nearly 16%. The weekly chart shows five consecutive bearish candles, the 3-day moving average is converging, and the daily, 3-day, and weekly charts are all oversold. BTC is still struggling in the negative gamma zone... I believe there is still a very strong demand for a rebound, but if 74k doesn't hold, then it's game over, and spot holders should just play dead.
Brothers, what do you think? Will it plunge straight down to 68k, or shoot like an arrow through the clouds to 80k?Another wallet has had issues again and again.
Keplr @keplrwallet warned that wallets created using one-click login with Google or Apple accounts are suspected to have been hacked,
because the login service provider Web3Auth had a security problem, causing some users' private keys to be leaked.
Accounts created with mnemonic phrases and hardware wallets were not affected.
Damn it, what is safe anymore? Better RUN first!#d[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Brothers and sisters, Pharaoh took a glance at the latest data today and was so angry he threw his coffee cup: BTC and ETH spot ETFs crazily saw over $1.6 billion outflow in a single week! Setting a new phase record. Pharaoh sneered: What happened to Wall Street institutions' "long-term allocation"? Their exit speed is even faster than retail investors pulling the plug, a typical "jerk" move!
The deadly causal chain behind this:
Non-farm payroll data blows past expectations ➡️ December rate hike expectations firmly capped ➡️ Dollar and US Treasury yields surge wildly ➡️ Traditional institutions see no chance of rate cuts and frantically retreat from high-volatility assets ➡️ BTC and ETH both suffer capital hemorrhage ➡️ Bitcoin plunged sharply overnight to 73,380, now struggling around 74,800!
Brothers, $1.6 billion is no small amount. This shows that under the current macro pressure, institutions have no intention to support the market. Every intraday rebound is just bait for them to sell. Without fresh liquidity in spot, the market can only continue to grind lower in this quagmire.
The big trend remains bearish, currently in an "ICU consolidation phase" after the crash.
Pharaoh's practical strategy:
1. Short aggressively on rallies to the 75,500-76,000 resistance zone, enter decisively if a long upper shadow forms on the 15-minute chart! Stop loss strictly at 76,400, target 74,200/73,600! $BTC $ZEC #BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 $SKHYNIX bounced from $822.70 but is now facing resistance around $850-$855. The broader hourly structure remains weak, and this recovery needs stronger follow-through to change the trend.
Entry: $851-$854 (Short)
SL: $861
TP1: $842
TP2: $832
TP3: $823
Momentum context: Relief bounce within a broader bearish structure.
Conviction: MediumBased on the xSOXL/USDT chart (1D), the price of 46.59 is recovering slightly (+5.65%) after dropping from 108.72 to 40.13.
Key Technical Insights
* Trend: Strong downtrend. Price sits far below the 20-day MA (74.56) and 10-day MA (59.64).
* Support & Resistance: Key bottom support is at 40.13. Immediate resistance is near 59.64, with major resistance at 108.72.
Short-Term Prediction
A temporary bounce toward the 55.00 – 60.00 zone is possible, but overhead selling pressure remains high. ETH/BTC exchange rate dropped 3.56%. Drift Black (0x45d.c00ca) opened $20 million worth of 20x ETH short and 20x BTC long positions yesterday morning, with related positions gaining $658,000 in unrealized profit in just one day. At 6 AM this morning, both Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced significant declines, followed by a stronger rebound in Bitcoin compared to Ethereum, which expanded the unrealized profit of the positions. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC $ETH A foreign KOL with a million followers seems to have finally gotten it right this time with the "carving the boat to seek the sword" strategy. Currently, Bitcoin has dropped back to 75,000, but it's still much higher than the new low of 57,800, so we can only say it seems to be correct.
Next, we need to see if a crash can be repeated, similar to 2018's drop from 6,000 to 3,000, or 2022's drop from 20,000 to 15,000. Personally, I still believe that the "carving the boat to seek the sword" approach can make money. In 2025, based on this, I successfully withdrew at 110,000 to 120,000 dollars, rather than believing in the eternal bull market that some family members talk about.
I also don't think the family members in the market can accurately analyze fundamentals, liquidity, macro factors, policies, and so on. Rather than that, it's better to follow the "carving the boat to seek the sword" method, since it has always been right.
History doesn't repeat itself, but it is surprisingly similar. Studying historical cycles and trends is useful, and the "carving the boat to seek the sword" strategy has value.BTC从8万美元上方摔到7.3万美元附近，连续第五周下跌。很多人只看到其中一个原因，要么怪中期选举，要么怪AI监管，要么怪非农数据。但真相是，这几件事在同一周撞到了一起，每一件单拎出来都能让BTC跌一波，三件叠在一起，就成了现在这个样子。 第一拳：AI监管把科技股砸了，BTC跟着遭殃。 11月4日美国中期选举结果落地，民主党横扫参众两院。这些人在竞选时说得最多的一件事，就是要限制数据中心的无序扩张，要收紧AI监管。全美几十个地方的选票上，甚至直接附带了限制修建数据中心的公投提案。 市场读到的信号很直接。过去两年美股涨得那么猛，核心燃料就是AI。AI要发展就得建数据中心，建数据中心就得买芯片，买芯片英伟达这些公司就赚钱。这条链的前提是监管环境足够宽松，你爱建多少建多少。现在这个前提被打上问号了。谁的手笔？美国民主党。 11月5日，纳斯达克跌5.52%，费城半导体指数跌12.25%，英伟达跌9.26%，AMD跌17%，闪迪跌22%。标普500全部11个板块下跌，一天蒸发3.2万亿美元。 BTC的问题在于，它和AI科技股背后站着同一批人。 对冲基金、多策略基金、追逐高风险收益的资金，同时买了🔥Pullbacks are not scary; what's scary is betting on the bottom with high-leverage contracts before the direction is confirmed!
📉 I currently still lean towards a medium-term pullback. If the Nasdaq continues to adjust, the AI high-valuation sector experiences a larger valuation correction, and U.S. Treasury yields fail to decline, then the funding pressure in the crypto market may continue to increase.
🌍 The Middle East and Russia-Ukraine situations have not formed stable ceasefire expectations, and global risk appetite is easily disturbed by news. After the U.S. midterm elections, if the Democrats control both houses of Congress, future policy and regulatory directions still need further observation; market uncertainty has not disappeared.
💵 But I am not panicking. If BTC returns to around $72,000, I will consider buying spot in batches, slowly accumulating through grid and dollar-cost averaging. If it really falls back near the starting point of this bull market, I will stop adding positions and no longer replace judgment with faith.
⚠️ Spot can withstand volatility, but contracts cannot ignore liquidation risk. Without clear structure, stop-loss, and position management, even the best directional judgment can lose money. Tonight I will continue to observe the rebound highs; if they keep declining, I won’t easily turn bullish.
Are you more willing to hold spot now, or trade short-term contracts? #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ 星球昨晚，一篇长文被顶到了 5.43 万浏览。 tvbee 写：「2017–2021，BTC 都是加速上涨的。可是 2022–2025，BTC 大体上是线性上涨的。蜂兄希望是 ETF 的加入，市场变得更成熟更理性了，而不是 BTC 的涨势匮乏。」 前晚这篇只有 3,030 浏览，昨晚 5.43 万。一天涨了十几倍的浏览，说明这句话戳到了很多人心里想问又不敢问的事：BTC 是不是不涨了？ 我先把这句话拆开看。 第一，加速和线性，说的是形态，不是结论。2017–2021，加速上涨：涨一段，横一段，再涨一段，每一段都比上一段陡。2022–2025，线性上涨：涨得慢，涨得匀，没有那种「一个月翻倍」的段落了。形态变了，这是事实；形态变了等于涨势没了，这是推论。事实和推论，要分开看。 第二，ETF 加入，至少改变了两样东西。一是买家变了：以前是散户追涨杀跌，现在多了 ETF 这种每天按部就班申购赎回的机构资金，买卖变得有节奏，暴涨暴跌就少了。二是筹码变了：ETF 每天净申购、净赎回，资金进进出出有了可追踪的账本，情绪不再是唯一的定价力量。BTC 与 ETH 现货 ETF 单周净流出超 16 亿美元$UNITREE exploded from the $98 region toward $108.88 and is now consolidating around $105.50. Buyers are holding much of the breakout, but a clean move above $106 is needed for continuation.
Entry: $104.80-$105.20 (Long)
SL: $103.80
TP1: $106.50
TP2: $108.00
TP3: $108.88
Momentum context: Strong breakout followed by consolidation.
Conviction: Medium$ONE remains under significant pressure after a prolonged hourly decline. Price is hovering near $0.00149, just above its recent low of $0.0014842. Buyers have yet to show a meaningful reversal.
Entry: $0.001495-$0.001510 (Short)
SL: $0.001535
TP1: $0.001460
TP2: $0.001420
TP3: $0.001380
Momentum context: Persistent lower highs and weak buying interest.
Conviction: Medium-High🔥I don't think we are already in a new major uptrend; the real trending market may still need more time to develop!
📉Currently, the market faces multiple pressures: valuation adjustments in the Nasdaq and AI sectors, persistently high US Treasury yields, and ongoing uncertainties in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine situation. Additionally, with the change in congressional power after the US midterm elections, policy expectations need to be repriced.
📊From the market structure perspective, I pay more attention to the rebound highs. If each rally fails to surpass the previous high and instead forms progressively lower highs, this is a weak structure that requires caution. You can participate in the rebound for observation, but it should not be taken directly as a trend reversal.
🧭For BTC's next correction, I am first looking around $72,000, near the 0.618 retracement zone. Once there, I will consider buying spot in batches, prioritizing grid and dollar-cost averaging. If it continues to fall back near the start of this bull market, I will stop adding positions and wait for a new structure to emerge.
🛡️As for contracts, I won't touch high leverage without confirmed signals. My expectation is that the main uptrend may still take at least two months to arrive, but this is just a personal timing judgment, not a fixed schedule.
Keep cash ready; patience is more important than impulsiveness. How long do you think the next major uptrend will take? #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ 刚刚重新梳理了 BTC 和 ETH 的市场情报，发现目前的资金流向与基本面正在释放一些值得警惕的信号。 $BTC：资金流入与市场情绪出现分歧。 美国现货 BTC ETF 单周净流入高达 12.8 亿美元，说明机构资金仍然存在配置需求。但另一方面，Hyperliquid 大户的仓位开始转向看空，市场杠杆情绪出现变化。 与此同时，Core Scientific 正在调整业务重心，将更多资源转向 AI 数据中心和高性能计算。这也反映出矿企正在重新评估传统挖矿业务的盈利能力。 $ETH：基本面压力更加明显。 ETH 现货 ETF 连续六周出现资金净流出，机构需求暂时缺乏持续性。与此同时，网络供应量增长、销毁力度减弱，通缩叙事也面临挑战。 此外，Glamsterdam 升级进度延后，意味着市场对以太坊近期技术催化的预期可能需要重新调整。 最新市场情报：风险正在进一步累积。 这里有一个非常重要的数据需要纠正：截至 2026 年 11 月 6 日，美国现货 BTC ETF 上周不是净流入 12.8 亿美元，而是净流出约 12.82 亿美元，创下 6 月下旬以来最大单周流出。ETH ETF 同期净流出$NVDA continues to print lower highs after dropping from $188. The recovery attempts remain weak, and price is now trading close to the $174.76 support zone.
Entry: $177.50-$178.20 (Short)
SL: $179.30
TP1: $175.50
TP2: $174.76
TP3: $173.50
Momentum context: Persistent selling pressure with no confirmed reversal.
Conviction: HighGold is showing strong buying pressure after bouncing from $4,045. Price has climbed toward $4,141 and is holding close to the session high. Buyers are currently in control, but resistance is approaching.
Entry: $4,120-$4,126 (Long)
SL: $4,108
TP1: $4,141
TP2: $4,155
TP3: $4,170
Momentum context: Strong bullish recovery with rising volume.
Conviction: Medium-HighETH/USDT — BEARISH
ETH trades near $2,120 after a sharp breakdown from $2,240. The weak rebound from $2,063 does not yet show a confirmed reversal.
RSI(6): 27.50 — oversold, but selling pressure remains dominant.
Resistance: $2,140–$2,160
Support: $2,063
Bearish trigger: Rejection below $2,160.
Downside risk: Break below $2,063.
SIGNAL: BEARISH — sellers remain in control. A sustained reclaim of $2,160 would weaken this view.
#Ethereum11Years
$ETH