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峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
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820美元的SNDK,你是在抄底还是在接飞刀? 从2300跌到820,腰斩再腰斩。财报营收暴增378%、EPS超预期、回购50亿——股价却跌成狗。就在拆股前夜,820这个位置,到底是AI存储的黄金坑,还是半山腰的绞肉机? 先看表面:财报炸裂,股价却崩了。 10月29日财报一出,营收110亿,同比+378%;数据中心收入48亿,同比暴增1600%;毛利率85%;回购50亿;还宣布8拆1。放在任何一家公司身上,这都是涨停的剧本。结果SNDK从2300一路砸到820,跌超60%。财报是照妖镜,股价是情绪表——业绩越好,砸得越狠。 为什么?因为预期早就打满了。AI存储超级周期,所有人都知道。你买的是“未来”,卖的是“兑现”。 第一件事:这不是基本面崩了,是杠杆崩了。 AI训练、推理、KV cache、数据中心,全在吃存储。企业级SSD已经占NAND出货近一半,供应紧张到2027年。公司无债、现金充裕、长期合约锁产能,客户预付保证金。 基本面硬不硬?硬。但永续合约的资金费率一直是正的——多头在付费持仓。财报利好出来,杠杆多头集体踩踏,这不是价值毁灭,这是杠杆清洗。 第二件事:拆股不是利好,是照妖镜。 11月19日,8拆1生效,记录日11月9日。很多人一听拆股就兴奋:“便宜了,能买了!” 醒醒。拆股不改变任何基本面,只改变每股价格。拆股是给散户看的糖,不是给机构吃的肉。 拆股前后流动性放大、波动加剧,插针会更狠。你以为820是底,拆完股变102,你照样可能被一根针扫出去。 真正该看的是:800-820这个需求区守不守得住。守住了,拆股后是新一轮叙事;守不住,750-780见。 第三件事:AI存储周期没结束,结束的是你的耐心。 TrendForce上调2026-2027内存市场规模,NAND供需失衡延续,Agentic AI进一步推高存储需求。SanDisk的backlog巨大,毛利率85%,这不是周期顶部的虚火,这是结构性短缺。 但你要分清:中长期逻辑对,不等于短期价格不砸。 从2300到820,跌的是估值透支和板块情绪,不是AI存储的需求。分析师平均目标价还在2000+,但目标价是给一年后看的。 多空对决,你自己看 一边是: 营收+378%,数据中心+1600%,毛利率85% 回购50亿,无债,现金充裕 NAND短缺延续到2027,定价权在手 800-820强需求区,超卖反弹动能 拆股后散户入场,流动性放大 一边是: 从2300跌60%,低高低点结构偏空 永续资金费率正,多头杠杆仍在,踩踏风险未清 半导体/AI板块整体调整,BTC/纳指联动 拆股前后波动加剧,插针风险高 内存周期性,AI CapEx若放缓就是戴维斯双杀 关键位置 上方阻力:900-950 → 1000-1100 → 1200+ 下方支撑:800-820(强需求)→ 750-780(破位目标) 操作策略 稳健多头: 800-820分批轻仓做多,总仓位控制在5-10%,杠杆≤5-10倍。止损严格设在780下方。第一目标900-950,第二目标1000+。放量站稳850-900并出现更高低点,再加仓。别一次性梭哈,回调中分批建仓优于一把梭。 短线选手: 当前观望,等4H放量阳线或突破短期下降趋势再小仓试多,快速止盈。反弹到900-950遇阻且量能不足,可轻仓短空,目标回踩820/800。破800则趋势延续空,但防超卖反弹。 长线信仰者: 如果你信AI存储周期,800-820是值得分批布局的区域。但用现货代币或低杠杆,别用高倍永续赌拆股。拆股前后流动性陷阱多,活着比抄到底重要。 SNDK现在就像2022年的英伟达—— 财报炸裂,股价腰斩,所有人骂“周期见顶了”。结果呢?AI一来,从100多干到1000多。 $BTC $SNDK $NVDA
峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
UNI at $6.75, did you cut your losses? On-chain daily active users hit a new high for 2026, with 13,000 new addresses added in one day, whales are quietly accumulating—but the price dropped from 7.5 to 6.75, down 22% in 30 days. Everyone is calling "UNI trash," yet protocol revenue is genuinely buying back and burning tokens. Is this the final shakeout or a value trap? Let's look at the surface first: the chain is scorching hot, but the price is shivering cold. Down 6% in the past week, 22% in a month, with a 24-hour trading volume of 380 million. BTC is pressured at 74,000, ETH is weak, and altcoins are collectively being crushed. Looking at the candlesticks: daily chart repeatedly tests the 6.6-6.8 support zone, RSI at 40-45 indicating neutral to slightly weak, price below short-term moving averages—technicals tell you: it’s not done falling, but it’s not that bad either. Here’s the question: why are users increasing while the price keeps dropping? First: active addresses hit a yearly high, but the price is discounted. Daily active users around 14,500, with over 13,000 new addresses in a single day—this is the highest level in 2026. Think about what this means: more people are using Uniswap, not fewer. V4 Hooks are continuously expanding: dynamic fees, Permissioned Pools supporting RWA and real estate tokenization, Aggregator Hooks integrating external liquidity. Elysium (Hyperliquid L2) has also launched V4 Hooks. In plain terms: Uniswap is evolving from a "place to swap tokens" into "on-chain financial infrastructure." Tokenized stocks, real estate, cross-chain liquidity—all these scenarios are moving onto Uniswap. Users are voting with their feet; the price just hasn’t caught up yet. Second: fee switch is on, UNI is being genuinely burned with real money. At the end of 2025, UNIfication was executed, and the fee switch officially turned on. Protocol revenue started to be used for buyback and burn of UNI. Many say "UNI has no value capture"—that’s old news. Now, part of the protocol’s earnings directly become buy orders, buying UNI off the market and burning it. Supply is decreasing, demand is increasing. This isn’t storytelling; it’s a deflationary mechanism already in place. Of course, be clear-headed: early burn ratio is still low (about 9% of trading fees), and protocol revenue is still small relative to the 4.1 billion market cap. But the direction is right; the rest is up to time. Third: macro is the biggest short-term enemy. BTC is pressured at 74,000, BTC dominance at 59-60%, altcoin season hasn’t arrived. Fed rates at 3.75-4.00%, market even prices in a significant chance of a rate hike in December. CPI data is a sword hanging overhead. Hawkish macro + tightening liquidity = no short-term chance for altcoins. But think the other way: if CPI cools down or BTC holds above 75,000, who is the first tier to recover altcoins? It’s UNI, with real revenue, deflationary mechanism, and ecosystem expansion. Bull vs. bear, you decide: On one side: - On-chain daily active users hit yearly high, 13,000+ new addresses in one day - V4 Hooks expand RWA, real estate, cross-chain liquidity - Fee switch is on, buyback and burn is real - Whales show accumulation signs, CME has launched UNI futures - 6.6-6.8 is recent strong support, panic selling is limited On the other side: - 22% drop in 30 days, daily chart bearish, near lower channel - BTC pressured, altcoin season absent, macro hawkish - Protocol revenue still small relative to market cap - 7.0 resisted three times, short-term pressure obvious - CPI is the biggest variable, hawkish data will continue to suppress Key levels: Resistance above: 6.90-7.00 (key) → 7.15-7.30 → 7.50-7.80 Support below: 6.60-6.65 (recent low) → 6.50-6.55 → 6.25-6.30 Trading strategy: Short-term traders: Light long positions at 6.60-6.70, stop loss below 6.50, target 6.90-7.10. If volume breaks below 6.55, light short positions can be tried, stop loss at 6.80, target 6.30-6.40. Avoid heavy positions before CPI release; wait for data before increasing exposure. Swing traders: Build long positions in batches at 6.50-6.70, stop loss 6.20-6.30, first target 7.20-7.50, second target 8.00+ (requires market cooperation). After confirming break below 6.25, wait for 5.80-6.00 to enter. Position size controlled at 10-20% of total capital, leverage ≤5-10x. Long-term believers: Blindly dollar-cost average below 6.5. UNI has dropped so much, but the protocol is stronger than 2021 by more than one level. Target 10-12 by end of 2026, betting on continuous fee burn + RWA scenario explosion + altcoin season rotation. If BTC breaks 73k, exit first; don’t fight the trend. UNI now is like UNI in 2020— 99% thought "the airdrop is over, UNI is done," but it went from $1 to $45. $BTC $ETH $UNI

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