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There are only two reasons to follow me: first, I post the real BTC position ratio and stop-loss price every day after the market closes; second, I don’t delete posts on days I have unrealized losses. In the past 142 days, there were 37 losing days, and the screenshots are still there.
After last night’s non-farm payroll release, the probability of a rate hike was raised again, and the December CPI became the next pricing anchor. My judgment is that BTC’s sensitivity to interest rates this round is clearly weaker than in 2022: the position structure has shifted from leveraged contract longs to spot plus ETF subscriptions and redemptions. Macro negative factors now bring more volatility rather than trend reversals. The real risk is not in the data itself but in the market’s repricing of "no rate cut," where leveraged funds can’t withstand those two spikes.
My action is simple: I reduced my position from 50% to 30%, didn’t clear it out, and set the stop-loss 6% below cost; if it breaks, I’ll reduce by half again. I don’t guess the direction, I just execute the conditions.
With this round of macro negatives, do you reduce your position first and wait for the CPI release, or hold and bet that December won’t cut rates but BTC will still rise?
Follow me for daily public real position and stop-loss logic, and I write honestly even when losing.
#BTC #ETH #JobsReportRaisesHikeOdds
#OKXProphet $DOGE I saw it on the volatility list this morning, then it was -2.5% in 24 hours, and when I checked again in the afternoon, it became -3.5%.
It evaporates about one point a day, the decline is still expanding, but the trading volume can reach over 40 million dollars — the volume is not small, but the price keeps grinding down.
Some say it’s because the CEO muttered “the altcoin season won’t come back,” which dragged Doge down. Take that with a grain of salt; Doge has been falling for three months — down 20% from 30 days ago, and those who bought six months ago are still down 39%. Can one CEO’s words control Doge’s price for three months?
My take: there’s no serious capital washing the market in this volume, it’s just no one is buying, and retail investors are grinding it down bit by bit. The volatility list has now become a list of coins no one wants; Doge was last on it because of a drop, and now it’s back again. $DOGE $SNDK has broken a new low, and you're still thinking about bottom-fishing???
Old Liu already said earlier that this is definitely not the bottom. If you try to bottom-fish, he will only bottom-fish your home!
After two days of consolidation without the support of US stocks over the weekend, Monday still shows no rebound, proving that it has started to lose capital attention!
Now that the previous low has been broken, panic in the market has intensified again. The panic caused by the Democratic Party's blanket crackdown on the AI sector has not yet subsided. Institutions are not bottom-fishing, so why are you? The right move is to short on the rebound #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% $BTC is now at 75,799, appearing to have only dropped 0.19%, but it has actually fallen nearly 6% over the past three days, with the price grinding near the weekly low. Interestingly, liquidation volume has shrunk and almost disappeared, with only about 60 million in 24 hours, down 70% from the previous day. Leverage was already cleaned out by the recent declines, so it's not new money holding the position, but old positions being lifted.
$ETH is weaker, down nearly 8% in three days, without any decent rebound. The aftermath of the Binance hack and regulatory concerns following the Democrats taking Congress are hanging over, all bearish factors present, yet the price barely moves.
The Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly by 0.32%, but over 3,100 stocks declined, with turnover shrinking by 177.1 billion. Robots, coal, and 6G sectors are taking turns leading, volume is retreating, and the faster rotation feels more like exhaustion.
The US semiconductor index rose 4.21%, the AMD stock surged 11%, but the Dow Jones fell for two consecutive days. The non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, pushing the probability of a rate hike to 76%. The chip stocks have their own excitement but can't drive the whole market.#Circle Q3 revenue exceeds expectations, USDC on-chain transaction volume grows 49%# Stablecoin settlement expansion provides sentiment support for cross-chain asset DOT, but the market has yet to confirm. I judge that DOT's short-term trend is still dominated by technical factors, with weakness unchanged.
Price dropped 4.9% in the past day, quoted at 0.8521, almost touching the intraday low of 0.8406; the four-hour chart shows a 21.65% retracement from the high, with a clear downward structure. The top ten sell orders in the order book total 35,000, outweighing buy orders of 22,000, with a buy-sell ratio of 0.62, indicating selling pressure dominance. Funding rate is -0.0157%, open interest at 10.536 million, bearish sentiment is relatively strong.
Strategy: Light short positions can be tried on a rebound to 0.8613, with stop loss at 0.8746 and target at 0.8268; if volume breaks below 0.8406, enter short at 0.8385, stop loss at 0.8521, target 0.8172. Single position should not exceed 5% of total capital, exit immediately on breakout.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$DOT#Elon Musk expects SpaceX to exceed $100 billion in annualized revenue by year-end
#Circle Q3 revenue exceeds expectations, USDC on-chain transaction volume grows 49%
$DOT How much fluff is really hidden in CORE's buyback rescue roadmap?
The two core narratives of the 2026 roadmap: large-scale lock-up bringing a huge BTC staking volume, and ecosystem revenue converted into continuous buybacks to support the token price, were once the most important logic supporting market confidence. But now, after the b14g coin theft and the price continuing to decline, investors are beginning to re-examine the fulfillment quality of this blueprint. First is the fluff in the "30 billion lock-up" narrative: the Bitcoin lock-up scale in the promotional statements mostly involves time-locked staking, not permanent lock-up; after expiration, users can freely unlock and withdraw. Once market expectations turn cold, staked funds will quickly flee, and the locked volume can shrink at any time. Coupled with competition from other projects in the sector, projects like Babylon continuously poach BTC staking users, so CORE's actual new staking increments fall far short of early promotional expectations. Second is the market's high hopes for the buyback rescue promise: the roadmap clearly states that ecosystem-generated revenue will be used to buy back CORE, offsetting token inflation lasting 81 years and improving the token economic model. But so far, there is no on-chain verifiable record of large-scale buybacks; the narrative remains at the planning stage without real capital inflows. Without real buybacks in cash, inflationary selling pressure cannot be effectively hedged. Adding to this is the fatal impact of the b14g vulnerability, and the controversy over hard fork ledger modifications severely damaging decentralized consensus, greatly undermining project governance credibility. Now with liquidity continuously drying up and prices hitting new lows, it is difficult for investors to continue buying purely based on PPT expectations Last Thursday, the four major spot ETFs all saw outflows. BTC had a net outflow of $1.28 billion, ETH $365.28 million, SOL $26.25 million, and XRP $529,510, with none showing positive inflows.
First, let's look at how the numbers are distributed. BTC accounts for the vast majority, ETH about 30%, SOL dropped to the tens of millions, and XRP only around fifty-some thousand. In the same week and same direction, the scale differs by three orders of magnitude.
So this is not "four coins being abandoned together," but rather four different situations masked by the same numbers. The $BTC and $ETH ETF pools are large and have frequent subscriptions and redemptions, so any redemption amount naturally looks huge; $SOL and $XRP outflows are small, possibly because subscriptions were never high to begin with, so it doesn't indicate panic.
Mechanically, a net outflow from spot ETFs means authorized participants redeem shares and sell the corresponding spot assets. This chain doesn't consider sentiment, only prices and spreads; it answers "who can convert the asset to USD at the current price," not "who is optimistic about the future."
My judgment: this round looks more like institutional portfolio adjustment and profit-taking, not systemic withdrawal. The real focus should be next week—if $BTC sees net outflows for a second consecutive week without a reduction in scale, then that would indicate a trend; a single week can only be considered noise.
A question to leave you with: when all four ETFs turn negative simultaneously, can you tell which is being sold and which simply has no buyers? These two scenarios look exactly the same on the market.Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
After amplifying orders for $AXIS, slippage on both entry and exit sides has significantly increased. Simulated slippage for buy/sell at a scale of 10,000 is 0.27%/0.27%, and for 100,000 it is 1.82%/1.60%. Large orders are estimated based on the 100,000 level cost first, not the 10,000 level.【On-Chain Trading Update｜ETH】
Detected short position opened by address 0xc532:
▪ Execution price: $2,153.6
▪ Transaction amount this time: $134,944.58
▪ Leverage: 25x
What do you think about opening a short at this position?
Note: This address has earned over $33,000 in profit in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +120.47% Circle Q3 revenue exceeded expectations, but ETH continues to fall. USDC on-chain transaction volume increased by 49%, indicating expanding demand for stablecoin settlements, while ETH/USDT dropped -6.63% in the past 24 hours, currently priced at 2,093 (OKX 1H market data, past 48 hours).
These two events occur on different chains: USDC transaction volume reflects on-chain payment and settlement activity, related to the stablecoin issuance side; ETH's price elasticity depends on its own demand growth and risk appetite, with no direct gains from this $ETH financial report.
From the 90-day high of 2,756, it has retraced -24.07%. In the past 90 days, there have been 7 days with single-day declines ≤ -4%, showing repeated downward momentum.
#CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% 🚨 US STOCKS AT RISK OF CONTINUING TO PLUNGE AFTER THE ELECTION!
The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on November 5. History shows that US midterm election years often experience strong corrections, although not entirely due to the election.
SCENARIO:
- Selling pressure increases → S&P 500 continues to decline
- Tests EMA 200 → important support zone
- Holds EMA 200 → recovery opportunity
- Breaks EMA 200 → risk of deeper decline
The market may need another correction phase before resuming the uptrend.SpaceX's $100 billion annualized revenue target is eye-catching, but looking into the financial report, the sources of growth and profit are actually quite different.
In the third quarter, SI business revenue was about $7.56 billion, accounting for more than half of total revenue; connectivity business revenue was about $5.248 billion, contributing operating profit of about $2.367 billion, significantly higher than the SI business's operating profit of about $431 million. The fastest-growing part of revenue and the part contributing the most profit in the quarter need to be viewed separately.
The financial report also clearly mentions that SI growth is driven by cloud service agreements, the Cursor acquisition, and other factors. When analyzing subsequent growth, changes brought by existing business expansion and acquisitions must be clearly accounted for.
I find this more interesting than simply predicting revenue to multiply several times. Different businesses require different capital investments, and profit performance and sustainability may vary greatly. Putting all revenue into one total and applying a single valuation multiple easily overlooks internal differences.
If the $100 billion target is realized, it is certainly worth attention. But shareholders need to know how much profit the new revenue ultimately leaves, which businesses are contributing funds, and which still require ongoing investment.
I am willing to look at growth, but I also want to see that the growth calculations make sense. The larger the company, the more important segment data becomes; otherwise, a nice total revenue figure may cover up questions that need to be asked.
#马斯克预计SpaceX年底年化营收突破1000亿美元 $ETH 2091: Long-short ratio 3.44 and the "liquidity trap" of negative fees
Don't be fooled by "too much drop," the current market is a textbook market maker meat grinder.
• Data deception: 77% of accounts are long, but the fee rate is -0.011%. This is not a bottom, but a double kill scenario of the main force "spot suppressing + contract shorting," with contract discount proving bears hold pricing power.
• Liquidity backlash: Look at that peak in active sell volume, it's not panic selling, but the main force's market orders directly swallowing retail investors' lower limit buy orders. You place limit buy orders to catch the bottom, they use your orders to close shorts.
• Hidden landmine: Negative fees attract spot-futures arbitrage (buy spot, short contracts), which only brings short-term false bottoms. Once the basis is repaired, arbitrage closing will trigger a secondary bottom.
Trade deduction:
The 2180-2200 range above is a heavy trapped zone; any rebound is bears gathering strength. Abandon left-side limit orders to catch falling knives.
Right-side iron rule: Wait for the long-short ratio to fall below 2.5 and fees to return positive (deleveraging complete), or after a volume drop below 2050 followed by volume divergence before reconsidering.
Not investment advice. #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ The overnight drop was brutal, $BTC plunged to 73,708, a new low for August, with 855 million liquidated and longs holding 90.2%. But the high fees didn’t turn negative, and the long-short ratio actually rose to 2.16. What was taken out was leverage, not positions.
$ETH was even weaker, with ETFs seeing outflows for six consecutive weeks, another 365 million left last week, and 80% of liquidations were longs, so they didn’t even struggle.
A-shares turnover was 1.49 trillion, shrinking by 177.1 billion. The coal and robotics sectors hit their daily limits, looking lively, but over 3,100 stocks fell. Volume is retreating, and the faster rotation feels more like exhaustion.
The US semiconductor index bounced 4.21%, AMD surged 11%, but the Dow was down. The stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls actually pushed up the odds of a rate hike. The chip stocks have their own excitement but can’t lead the whole market.
Solana’s Lujiazui advertisement was stopped by the central bank before it even got popular, and the involved parties are under investigation. The regulatory cracks have never loosened.深夜盯盘的人最怕什么？不是暴跌，而是你刚砍掉的仓位突然朝你预判的反方向狂奔。$SNDK 就在深夜上演了这一幕：价格不跌反涨，一位交易者眼睁睁看着超过2万美元的浮盈蒸发，均价888.93的持仓成了烫手山芋。他判断这是流动性扫单，认定“肯定上不去”，甚至放话开盘还要砸、涨了就加仓。这种笃定，恰恰是当下最值得警惕的情绪样本。 先别急着站队。真正值得拆解的不是他的盈亏，而是他归因的方式——把逆向波动一律解释为“清算操纵”，等于提前给自己发了免错金牌。市场结构里，流动性猎杀确实存在，但把每一次不利走势都塞进这个框架，就会错过真正的信号：如果深夜拉升只是扫单，量能应快速衰竭、价格回归；若价格在高位持续承接，那就不是扫单，而是有人在提前布局。这个分歧点，才是$SNDK 短线多空的分水岭。 再看$AKE 这条线，情绪更赤裸。他嘲讽“没实力的庄别装”，抱怨连像样的负资费都拉不出来，喊话“赶紧砸”。这里藏着一个被多数人忽略的机制：负资费拉不出来，往往说明空头拥挤度不够，或多头仍在付费持仓，轧空燃料不足。换句话说，他想要的双向爆仓剧本，市场根本没给条件。把“资费没到位”当成庄家无能，其实是误读了资金费率这个This is seriously screwed, $BTC broke through 75000 just like that, directly dropping to 73385, and $1.17 billion worth of longs instantly vaporized. Huang Renxun, I’m stuck with your monkey, and now this crap comes out of your pants at this moment!
The 200-week moving average below is at 67700, and the middle support at 73700 if it doesn’t hold, it’s a vacuum zone.
The funding situation is even worse. Last week, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.28 billion, the worst since June, and the cumulative amount this year has turned negative. BlackRock IBIT is the main force running away, and the speed of Strategy buying coins has visibly slowed down. Institutions are withdrawing, Ethereum has been bleeding for six consecutive weeks, and the whole market is just holding on by tough talk.
The macro situation is even more desperate. The Democrats took both houses, and old lady Warren is eyeing the Senate Banking Committee; the crypto regulatory knife is already at the neck. Huang Renxun’s private moral issues broke out at this critical moment, the board has launched an investigation, Nvidia futures plunged directly, a $4.5 trillion AI market cap star is shaking like this, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was just bloodied 12% on Thursday, and SanDisk dropped 22%. The crypto market’s drop this time isn’t because its fundamentals are bad, but because the AI faith collapsed and liquidity was drained, forcibly pulling it down.
Old Pig, I’ll say one last thing: don’t be reckless trying to guess the bottom now. If 73500 breaks, it’s 68000. Isn’t the bloody lesson from Brother Baibai holding the position enough? Control your hands, wait for this wave of liquidation and regulatory thunder to pass, survive first, then talk about other things.
⚠️Market observation only, not trading adviceCrypto leverage is cooling, but the spot bid is not there to catch it. That is the real message from this week's derivative and fund-flow data, and it matters more than the neutral funding rates themselves. Funding on $BTC and $ETH sits near neutral, a healthy sign in isolation. It says speculative positioning has not stretched to an extreme. It does not say the downtrend has reversed. If spot buying fails to keep pace, price can keep drifting sideways or slide further in search of liquidity. Le美国参议院设调查小组委员会民主党首席议员理查德·布卢门撒尔已致函Binance、Tether、World Liberty Financial（WLF）及TRUMP币发行实体Fight Fight Fight LLC，要求四家实体在2027年1月4日前提交调查材料，并警告不配合将面临“进一步措施”。 关键不在信函本身，而在时间点, 新一届国会将于2027年1月3日召开。若民主党掌握参众两院，布卢门撒尔有望出任调查小组委员会主席，届时将拥有强制索取文件、传唤证人的权力。目前只是“自愿配合”请求，截止日却设在权力交接翌日，信号很明确：要么主动交材料，要么等传票。Binance：17亿美元、赦免与USD1调查把三条时间线并置约17亿美元伊朗关联转账、CZ获特朗普赦免，以及Binance与特朗普家族稳定币USD1的深度合作。报道称，过去一年约1500个Binance账户被伊朗籍人士访问，合计约17亿美元流向与伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队、胡塞武装等关联实体；Binance否认并称风险敞口已大幅下降。2025年10月，特朗普签署对CZ的赦免令。与此同时，USD1绝大多数持仓集中在Binance，BinancThe early morning plunge was brutal, $BTC dropped to 73,510, the lowest since August, with over 1 billion liquidations, longs held on through 90% of it. But the funding rate stubbornly didn’t turn negative, and Binance’s long-short ratio actually rose to 2.16; what’s being taken away is leverage, not positions.
$ETH fared even worse, liquidation volume exceeded that of Bitcoin, with a single whale losing 61.41 million in one trade; the long liquidation price was stuck at 2004, so weak that it didn’t even bother to struggle.
The A-share market closed at 1.48 trillion, shrinking by 175.2 billion. The coal and robotics sectors hit their daily limits, looking lively, but over 3,100 stocks declined. Volume is retreating, and the faster rotation feels more like exhaustion.
In the US market, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 4.21%, AMD surged 11%, but the Dow Jones fell, the S&P 500 dropped 2.68% last week, and the Nasdaq fell 3.37%. The chip stocks’ own rebound couldn’t lift the whole market.
Over at $SOL, the Lujiazui advertisement was taken down by the central bank before it even got hot, and the involved entities are under investigation. The regulatory noose has never loosened.Two ETH short positions: one secured profit, one already breakeven
Let's start with the results.
First position (previous tweet): entered at 2225.16, exited at 2193.43.
The take profit didn't reach my original plan of 2151 because ATR shrank from 9.15 to 3.97, so the 8x target shifted to around 2193. I exited when it hit that.
Second position: entered short today at 13:00 at 2136.86, now at 2097, floating profit +17.6%.
Stop loss has been moved from 2170 to 2134 (breakeven). Worst case is break even; the rest will wait for 2046 or a 1h bullish reversal.
Both entries follow the same logic: 1h bearish alignment, strong ADX, 15m pullback failure. $ETH $BTC's two waves of sell-offs are essentially the same set of pressures being repeatedly triggered, not a sudden "unexplained crash."
The early morning wave (Sunday night to Monday early morning): Only crypto markets were open over the weekend. The market first digested two risk messages — Nvidia CEO scandal/investigation and stalled US-Iran negotiations — risk appetite was directly shut down. Meanwhile, after the midterm elections, the Democrats control Congress, and funds worry about tighter crypto regulations (with hardliners like Warren gaining influence). Bitcoin was hammered down to about 73,700 (around the low since August), and Ethereum fell below 2100–2200. Leveraged longs were liquidated, with over about $1 billion cleared in 24 hours, including about $900 million longs; Ethereum liquidations were even harsher than Bitcoin’s, so it dropped more sharply.
Just now, another sell-off: This is a continuation of the same logic, not a new story. Spot ETFs saw large outflows last week (Bitcoin ETFs had weekly outflows on the order of billions of dollars), Binance’s hack aftermath is still ongoing, and institutional buying can’t catch up; once the price broke key levels, another round of chained long liquidations amplified the decline. On Gate, BTC is now about 73,800 (around -2.8%), ETH about 2086 (around -6.9%), with Ethereum still clearly weaker.
In short: Regulatory concerns + ETF withdrawals + weekend risk events → support broken → accelerated leveraged liquidations. There is also the US CPI tomorrow, so short-term volatility will remain high; don’t assume the one-sided move is over. The two waves of sell-offs are essentially the same set of pressures being repeatedly triggered, not a sudden "unexplained crash."
The wave in the early morning (Sunday night to Monday early morning): Only crypto markets were open over the weekend. The market first digested two risk messages — Nvidia CEO scandal/investigation and stalled US-Iran negotiations — risk appetite was directly shut down. At the same time, after the midterm elections, the Democrats took control of Congress, and funds worried about tighter crypto regulations (with hardliners like Warren gaining influence). Bitcoin was hammered down to about 73,700 (around the low since August), and Ethereum fell below 2100–2200. Leveraged longs were liquidated, with over about $1 billion liquidated in 24 hours, including about $900 million longs; Ethereum liquidations were even harsher than Bitcoin’s, so it dropped more sharply.
Just now, another wave of sell-off: It’s a continuation of the same logic, not a new story. Spot ETFs saw large outflows last week (Bitcoin ETFs had weekly outflows on the order of billions of dollars), Binance’s hack aftermath is still ongoing, and institutional buying can’t catch up; once the price broke key levels, another round of chained long liquidations amplified the decline. On Gate.io now, BTC is about 73,800 (around -2.8%), ETH about 2086 (around -6.9%), with Ethereum still clearly weaker.
In short: Regulatory concerns + ETF withdrawals + weekend risk events → breaking support → accelerated leveraged liquidations. There’s also the US CPI tomorrow, so short-term volatility will remain high; don’t assume the one-sided move is over. $$ETH #$BTC "Unable to accept a feasible compromise"—this phrase reminds me of my mindset when I used to follow regulatory news: always hoping for a one-step solution and treating any progress as if it were a near certainty. Honestly, the lesson is that expectations run ahead of reality, and I still thought I had good judgment.
McHenry said the industry missed opportunities and also admitted his own responsibility; although the bill passed the House, it got stuck in the Senate procedural vote. I think the biggest caution is to avoid treating regulatory progress as a certainty for contract trading. If even compromises can't be reached, the rules remain uncertain, yet ordinary people are easily swept up by the atmosphere of "getting clear soon."
I now follow two rules: first, distinguish whether policy news is just a statement, passing, or taking effect; second, don't loosen your position limits just because you think the policy direction is favorable. After all, watching the market outside of work means limited energy—survival comes first. Has anyone else been misled by the "regulation is about to land" hype? Would you be willing to share one rule you use to judge policy news?An established protocol was hacked for $665,000, and the announcement is as candid as a breakup text!
This morning, ACryptoS, a DeFi yield aggregator protocol launched in 2020, disclosed it was attacked: 5 chains, 77 vaults lost about $665,000. The vulnerability was in the vault contract's input validation; the attacker could mint most of the vault shares by depositing a tiny amount of tokens, then withdraw others' funds. Their documentation originally stated "No code vulnerabilities have been exploited since launch" — six years undefeated, brought down by an unfinished validation.
The team's response was rarer than the vulnerability: deposit function was disabled, withdrawals remained open; they offered the attacker a "10% bounty if funds are returned"; then directly announced — no resources left to maintain, project ceased operations, users urged to withdraw assets promptly.
No blame-shifting, no empty promises, no "please give us more time," as candid as a breakup text: I'm done, you leave, take your stuff, don't look back.
The surreal part is the order: many projects lock withdrawals and seek new funds to cover losses after hacks; this one opened the gates for users to leave first, then sat down to negotiate a "commission" with the hacker. A six-year-old protocol, survived bear markets, died over a line of validation and a sentence of truth. If you still have funds in small protocol vaults, check your positions tonight.
$ETH $BNB $BTC is now at 75,799, down only 0.19% in 24 hours, looking stable, but it has dropped nearly 6% cumulatively over the past three days, with the price grinding near the weekly low. Interestingly, the liquidation volume has actually shrunk, only about 60 million in 24 hours, down 70% from the previous day, indicating that leverage was already cleaned out by the recent declines; now it's not new funds holding on, but old positions being lifted.
Funding rates are so low they can be ignored, the long-short ratio is 58 to 42, and the fear and greed index is 26, showing a bearish sentiment but no one really dares to push prices down further. $ETH is weaker, down nearly 8% in three days, without even a decent rebound.
The A-share market closed with 1.4 trillion in turnover, coal, commercial aerospace, and CPO sectors taking turns leading, but over 3,100 stocks declined, volume is retreating, and the faster rotation feels more like exhaustion.
The US semiconductor index rebounded 4.21%, AMD surged 11%, but the Dow Jones fell for two consecutive days. The nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, which actually pushed up the probability of rate hikes. The chip stocks have their own excitement but can't drive the whole market.
Solana's Lujiazui advertisement was stopped by the central bank before it even got popular, and the involved units are under investigation. The regulatory gaps have never loosened.Quest is going to be gradually shut down, so let me pour some cold water first: this looks more like a business reset rather than a sudden surge in L1 demand. The Galxe team and brand will be merged into Gravity, focusing on L1 development and applications; ID and Passport will also be gradually closed, but the network will continue to operate as usual, and the G token remains unchanged.
I am bearish on the sentiment interpretation of this news for two reasons: the enthusiasm for completing tasks cannot be directly taken as evidence that users are willing to continuously use the chain; concentrating resources can adjust supply but cannot create demand for users. My speculation is that if the market counts organizational contraction directly as growth, then expectations might be running ahead of the business.
Of course, the bulls might also be right. If subsequent applications can keep users engaged even without task incentives, I will change my stance—that would indicate the transformation is effective. Are you bullish or bearish? Do you think shutting down Quest is offloading baggage, or does it make it harder for Gravity to prove demand? Share your reasons.A personnel announcement often explains a company's intentions better than a white paper. On November 9, Animoca Brands announced that co-founder and executive chairman Yat Siu will become CEO on December 1, 2026, while former group president Evan Auyang will step down and become a senior advisor to the board.
The key is in the wording: Yat Siu will take over daily operations, project development, and strategic execution. The fact that someone already sitting as executive chairman is taking these three responsibilities back means power is shifting from setting direction back to managing implementation.
Implementation falls into three lines: the personal AI agent platform Minds, institutional business including digital currency and investment products, and Moca Network and AIR, which handle identity authentication and authorization. These three are actually one chain—the agent needs a wallet and identity to operate, institutions need credentials to enter, and identity and authorization are exactly the layer where $MOCA resides.
The judgment is here: Animoca used to be more like a super LP in the crypto primary market, profiting from paper valuations; now the founder returning as CEO signals a shift from investing in projects to building products. Holding companies discount net assets, product companies give imagination premiums.
But don’t rush to see this as purely positive. Building products entails operational costs and risks of implementation failure, and Minds faces a fiercely competitive AI agent market. The first roadmap after taking office on December 1 is what’s truly worth watching.#NVIDIA launches independent investigation, management stability under scrutiny BTC and ETH spot ETFs see weekly net outflow exceeding $1.6 billion
Data to watch this week: BTC+ETH spot ETFs have a weekly net outflow exceeding $1.6 billion, with BTC outflow at $1.28 billion and ETH outflow at $365 million. BlackRock IBIT has had five consecutive days of withdrawals, while Fidelity is still making small purchases, indicating this is not retail panic but institutions readjusting risk exposure.
Mid-term essence: Macro interest rate expectations are tightening, tech stocks are retreating, and ETFs are prioritized for position cuts. This is not a crash signal but a risk appetite cleansing.
Corresponding strategy: Do not chase rebounds, keep base positions, and wait for two signals — ETF outflows stop and turn into net inflows, and BTC volume surges above key ranges.
+2.58K USDT
Open the position list and verify the take-profit and stop-loss levels of heavy holdings.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Signals are conflicting. $BTC plunged to 73,708 overnight, a new low since August. Of the 855 million in liquidations, longs accounted for 90%, yet some say the funding rate is still 0.0069%, while others say it has turned negative. The long-short ratio actually rose to 2.16. What’s being taken away is leverage, not positions. 73,000 is now a psychological line; if it can’t hold 70,000, that’s the next stop.
$ETH has been silent throughout, too weak even to bother with a rebound.
A-shares turnover was 1.49 trillion, shrinking by 177.1 billion compared to last Friday. The surge in coal and robotics hitting the daily limit looks lively, but volume is retreating. The faster the rotation, the more it feels like exhaustion.
The US semiconductor index rebounded 4.21%, AMD surged 11%, but the Dow Jones fell for two consecutive days, and 7 of the 11 S&P sectors closed in the red. The probability of a rate hike in December has pushed to 76%. The chip stocks have their own excitement but can’t drive the whole market.
On the $SOL side, the Lujiazui advertisement was taken down by the central bank before it even got popular, and the involved units are under investigation. The regulatory cracks have never loosened.#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 Did the $ETH 2000 mentioned a week ago come true?BNB has already fallen below the lowest point smashed out on the day it was hacked 10 days ago, 678.13.
On the morning of October 30, news broke that the exchange behind it was hacked for about $6.3 billion. On that day, BNB dropped from around 750 to a low of 678.13, closing at 699.78, a drop of about 6.7% in one day.
In the following 10 days, it actually didn’t fall much. From the close that day until now, it has dropped about 3.3%, while the largest mainstream market cap in the same period fell about 4.6%. The impact of the hack was basically fully reflected on that day.
What pushed it down today was the overall market. Between 5 a.m. and 6 a.m., it fell from around 697 straight down to 678.3, moving down with the entire market; between 3 p.m. and 4 p.m., it further dipped to 675, breaking below 678.13, currently around 676, still below that level.
On the contract side, the day after the hack, OKEx’s total contract positions actually surged to about $62.4 million, with some buyers stepping in to bottom-fish; since then, it has steadily withdrawn to about $44.18 million, down about 29%. Leverage is decreasing, so the upward push is weaker.
Today’s low of 675 is the lowest since September 2, when it was 674.7. This break below is not much related to the hack but rather because it couldn’t hold up along with the overall market. $BNB The overnight drop was brutal, $BTC plunged to 73,708, a new low since August, with 855 million liquidated, longs holding 90.2%. But the high fees didn't turn negative, and the long-short ratio actually rose to 2.16; what was taken away was leverage, not positions.
$ETH was even weaker, with ETF outflows for six consecutive weeks, another 365 million fled last week, and 80% of the liquidations were longs.
A-shares closed at 1.49 trillion, shrinking by 177.1 billion, with coal and robotics hitting daily limits, but over 3,100 stocks declined. Volume is retreating, and the faster rotation feels more like exhaustion.
The US semiconductor index rebounded 4.21%, AMD surged 11%, but the Dow Jones fell for two consecutive days, 7 of the 11 S&P sectors closed in the red. The stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls pushed the December rate hike probability to 76%. This rebound is a chip stock affair and can't lead the whole market.
Solana's Lujiazui advertisement was stopped by the central bank before it even got hot, which also said it will investigate the involved parties. The regulatory loopholes have never loosened.In the current Crypto market, the most distressed might not be BTC holders, but altcoin investors.
When BTC falls, many altcoins drop even faster.
This indicates that market funds are becoming cautious.
I believe that to judge the altcoin market, you can't just look at a sudden surge in a particular coin.
You should also observe:
1. Whether BTC has stopped its continuous decline
2. Whether ETH has started to outperform BTC
3. Whether altcoin trading volume has recovered
4. Whether the market rally is spreading from a few coins to more sectors
#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 Galxe Passport will be gradually shut down. What concerns me more is not the loss of a product, but who ultimately decides the "shelf life" of on-chain identity.
This time, Galxe is integrating its team and brand into Gravity, concentrating resources to promote its L1 development and applications. Services like Quest and ID will also be gradually closed; the Gravity network will continue to operate normally, and the G token will not be affected. Among the news, what I find hardest to let go of is Passport: I believe this serves as a reminder to users who rely on platform identity services that just because an identity can be verified, it doesn't mean the identity service will always be available.
When I usually look at such products, I tend to first ask: if you switch to another place, will you still be recognized? If an identity's use is highly dependent on the original platform, then when the platform changes direction, users may need to re-authenticate and rebuild trust. This is my speculation and does not mean existing credentials have already become invalid; the information does not clarify how subsequent handling will be done, so we cannot directly equate the two.
Therefore, I judge that this adjustment is more worth discussing in terms of the portability of identity services, rather than labeling the token as bullish or bearish. The chain can continue running, but services built around the chain will change platforms. If you have used Passport, what do you most want to be clarified before it closes: how to preserve credentials, whether other applications will continue to recognize them, or if there is a way to migrate?Last night's drop was harsher than expected, $BTC plunged directly to 73,708, a new low since August, with 855 million liquidated in 24 hours, and longs bore 90% of it. But strangely, the funding rate didn't turn negative, and Binance's long-short account ratio actually rose to 2.16. Those bottom-fishers haven't given up; what got taken out was leverage, not positions.
$ETH fell even harder, nearly 5% in 24 hours, with 358 million liquidated—more than Bitcoin. On the altcoin side, SOL dropped to 86, while PEPE was the only one in the Top 10 to stay in the green.
The A-share market closed at 1.49 trillion, shrinking by 177.1 billion compared to last Friday. Coal and robotics stocks hit the daily limit up, with Yushu Technology rising over 13%, but more than 3,100 stocks declined. The rotation was as fast as a fan.
The US semiconductor index rebounded 4.21%,
AMD surged 11%, but the Dow Jones fell for two consecutive days, and 7 of the 11 S&P sectors closed in the red. The stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls actually pushed the December rate hike probability to 76%. This rebound is just a tech stock affair; it can't carry the whole market.👀 $STAMP: THE CODE TELLS A BIGGER STORY.
A September GitHub commit introduced a STAMP-paired Meteora launchpad, potentially connecting future token launches with STAMP liquidity.
Weak prices alone don’t tell us whether this infrastructure will succeed.
The next signal to watch: real launches, liquidity growth and active users.
#STAMP #SolanaBitcoin continues to decline, and the market is in a state of panic, but on-chain data shows an unusual divergence: long-term holders are starting to loosen their positions, while short-term holders remain relatively calm.
Data from November 5 shows that long-term holders (LTH) transferred realized losses of $139 million to exchanges, indicating that some long-held coins can no longer withstand the current market pressure. However, short-term holders (STH) have not simultaneously experienced panic selling of the same scale. After sufficient turnover in the previous period, the cost basis for short-term holders has shifted down to the 75K–76K range, with the current price just around their breakeven point.
Another key signal: although the overall realized loss in the market remains high, the rate of loss expansion has not accelerated. This signals that panic does exist now, but the momentum of panic spreading is weakening. I tend to believe that BTC is currently in the early stage of a bull market, undergoing a painful period of position restructuring.
It is important to rationally distinguish two points: realized loss chips transferred to exchanges do not equal complete liquidation; a slowdown in loss growth does not mean the bottom has been reached. The core factor determining the future market trend is not which group of holders cracks first and cuts losses, but whether the market can sustain effective capital absorption after panic chips are gradually cleared.
Bottoms are never born amid widespread cheers; they often complete position turnover quietly at the most fragile moments of market confidence.
Bull markets rely on market confidence, but all solid confidence must ultimately be rooted in real on-chain behavior and capital competition.💪$BTC #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ SanDisk SNDK 1-for-8 stock split is happening on the 20th🔥$SNDK
Current price 800+, after the split it will be just over 100, market cap remains unchanged.
Spot holders are basically unaffected, just hold tight with peace of mind✅
The key is for contract traders! The platform will reset all take-profit and stop-loss orders, high-risk leveraged positions face liquidation risk.
There will also be a brief trading halt during the adjustment period, no room for operations, those holding positions must check their positions in advance to avoid silent losses👀
#美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% 49 to 50, let me pour some cold water first: According to this news, the CLARITY Act is stuck in a procedural vote in the Senate, so it cannot be simply understood as "just a little short, the positive outcome is imminent." I am more worried that the market might interpret the close vote count as the regulatory implementation being near. McHenry criticized the industry for not accepting feasible compromises but also admitted his own responsibility; the bill had previously passed the House, but after the election, the change in congressional control adds more uncertainty to the outlook.
I am cautious for two reasons. First, the procedural hurdle has not been cleared, so the controversy has not yet transformed into enforceable rules; a small vote difference does not mean the remaining resistance is small. Second, the "industry's unwillingness to compromise" exposes an issue of interest coordination, which cannot be solved by simply supporting crypto. If all parties still cannot agree on the boundaries of compromise, then in my view, being close to passing could also mean further delays. For businesses relying on compliance expectations, this is more critical than a temporary cooling of sentiment.
But I also admit that the bulls might be right: the close vote count at least leaves room for re-coordination. If specific terms acceptable to key parties emerge later and the legislative process is pushed forward again, I will retract some of my pessimism. My habit is to first see how the compromise is reflected in the text, then see how the market tells the story, and not rush to price in the "just a little short."After reading, I noted three things, first highlighting the sentence "This adjustment does not involve changes to the G token": I think this is the easiest to be misread as a reassurance, but the token not changing does not mean the business environment it operates in hasn't changed.
1. My judgment is that $G remaining unchanged is neutral information and cannot be directly taken as a positive sign of transformation. Galxe is integrating the team and brand into Gravity, concentrating resources to develop Gravity L1, and services like Quest, ID, Passport will gradually shut down, while the Gravity network continues to operate normally. These changes cannot be overshadowed by the phrase "token unchanged."
2. I want to distinguish between "the network operating as usual" and "why users continue to use it." If the original services close and users don't find new reasons to stay, then the network running normally doesn't necessarily mean demand naturally continues; this is my speculation, not a result that has already happened.
3. I will shift my observation checklist from "whether the token changes" to "whether there are applications that can retain users." The reason is simple: concentrating resources shows where the team plans to go, but it doesn't yet prove users are willing to follow. Overlooking this step easily leads to mistaking plans for achievements.
I will first separate "unchanged" and "improved" in my notes; what would you add as a fourth point, and which types of Gravity applications would you look at to judge if users have stayed?#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？
This CPI report can no longer change the December rate hike.
October nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, nearly three times the expected 60,000, unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, and average hourly earnings rose 3.1% year-over-year. On CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25bp rate hike in December jumped from 66.9% to 76.8%, now approaching 78%. In the September dot plot, 16 of 18 officials expected another rate hike within the year, and at the October meeting, two voting members already voted in favor of a hike. Employment, inflation, and officials' statements all point in the same direction; a 0.2% month-over-month reading cannot be reversed — even Citibank, which gave the coldest forecast of +0.19%, wrote in its report that "it will not change the December rate hike expectation." So the real point of contention is 2027. Interest rate futures now imply at least 40bp more hikes by next September. Core CPI landing at 0.19% gives the market some relief; if it exceeds 0.3%, the "higher for longer" repricing will hit first tech stocks and crypto assets, which have no cash flow and rely on discount rates. Moreover, the plunge in oil prices won't save this data. Last week, Brent fell more than 16%, the largest weekly drop since 2020, but that was November pricing. October CPI statistics are based on October average prices, and the September gasoline month-over-month +9.1% base is still weighing on it. The energy drag dividend will only show when November data is released in December — by then, the meeting will have already taken place.The Democratic Party just took Congress, and their first move is aimed at the crypto circle! A cluster of negative news, don't rush to call the bottom 😤
Non-farm payrolls at 165,000, expected 65,000, unemployment rate 4.1%, hourly wages also exceeded expectations. Traders have turned to betting on a December rate hike with an 85% probability, US Treasury yield at 4.85%. This is the current squeeze, crypto takes the first hit 💧
Blumenthal named Binance, Tether, WLFI, and the Trump coin issuer, requiring "voluntary submission of materials" by January 4, 2027. The new Congress takes office on January 3, the timing is unpleasant, but the letter is not a lawsuit, more like a sword hanging overhead, suppressing sentiment in the medium term 🔪
The bottom is seen in three levels: 73k–74k is being contested, a spike at 73,708, losing 75k; short-term cost is 75k–76k, breaking below causes panic. Then the psychological level at 70k, options max pain at 76k, nominal over 10 billion, hedging will amplify volatility. Some extreme tail estimates at 30k, not a baseline, but don't mistake cheap for guaranteed 📉
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
Leverage is being cleared harshly: 855 million liquidated in 24 hours, 140,000 accounts liquidated, 90.2% long positions, funding rate turned negative, fear and greed index 26–29, less room for a stampede. But ETF outflows reached 1.282 billion in a single week, the largest since June, turning negative year-to-date; big wallets absorb, retail sends to exchanges, opposite directions 😵
The bottom is a process, not a price. Watch three signals: US Treasury yield trend falling, ETF weekly flow turning positive, 73k volume spot support. If not lit, treat the rebound as just a rebound 👀#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $BTC is now at 75,799, down only 0.19% in 24 hours, looking stable, but it has dropped nearly 6 points cumulatively over the past three days, with the price grinding near the weekly low. Interestingly, the liquidation volume has actually shrunk, only about 60 million in 24 hours, down 70% from the previous day, indicating that leverage was already cleaned out by the recent declines; it's not new funds holding the position, but old positions being lifted.
Funding rates are so low they can be ignored, the long-short ratio is 58 to 42, and the fear and greed index is 26, showing a bearish sentiment but no one really dares to push it down further. $ETH is weaker, down nearly 8 points in three days, without even a decent rebound.
The A-share market traded 1.01 trillion in half a day, shrinking by 111.6 billion compared to last Friday. Coal, PCB, and robotics sectors are taking turns pulling up, but volume is retreating, and the faster rotation feels more like consumption.
US stocks: the semiconductor sector rose 4.21%, AMD surged 11%, but the Dow Jones has fallen for two consecutive days, and 7 of the 11 S&P sectors closed in the red. This rebound is mainly driven by chip stocks themselves and cannot lead the entire market.Usually ETH stays flat with no discussion, and the group chat is as quiet as an office on Monday morning. Today suddenly everyone is talking about the trading volume soaring 5 times.
My first reaction was that the price went up? But then I saw it dropped 6.59%.
This is very interesting: no one adds positions when it rises, but everyone rushes to trade when it falls. The 24-hour volume of $7.981 billion is all spent on the way down. To put it bluntly, the excitement isn't about the market, it's about fleeing. I'm the same, my hands move faster than my brain when it drops. Binance ETH/USDT perpetual contract trading volume has expanded to 5 times the original within ten minutes. Behind the numbers, there is a direction: the price is falling.
Let's start with the facts. In the past 24 hours, this contract traded $7.981 billion, with a decline of 6.59%. Nearly $8 billion changed hands on the same trading pair in one day, resulting in a price drop. Volume is the process, the decline is the result; looking at them together provides more information.
There are usually two explanations for a volume-driven price drop. One is active selling, where holders sell regardless of price, and buyers absorb at low levels. The other is passive selling, where leveraged positions hit liquidation thresholds, and the exchange liquidates for them, with the liquidation itself generating volume. The charts look similar, but the follow-up is completely different: the former involves someone repricing, which may drag on for days; the latter ends immediately after a single spike. Just by volume and decline, you can't tell which it is.
One thing is certain: volume suddenly expands but the price does not rebound, indicating that the buying side is passively absorbing, not actively attacking. The patience of the absorbing side is limited; if the price continues to fall, buyers will retreat. It's too early to talk about a bottom here; the real bottom often first grinds people down with shrinking volume and a slow decline, then pulls back with a single volume-driven long bullish candle.
What’s worth pondering is that $7.981 billion. Binance contracts rank first globally in comprehensive rankings, and the most concentrated liquidity is here. In such concentrated turnover, who is handing over chips, and who is receiving? If it were institutional portfolio adjustment, ten minutes wouldn't be enough.#SoftBank's heavy bet on OpenAI, can the Q2 earnings report deliver impressive results?
Tomorrow SoftBank will release its Q2 earnings report. The U.S. stock market fell 6% in pre-market trading, seemingly telling us that the market is not buying into its $50 billion investment in Malaysia.
Recently, SoftBank has been declining, affected by the AI sell-off. Its stock price has dropped 59% from the June high and fell about 3% intraday.
What’s more troublesome is that OpenAI’s fundraising target was lowered from $30 billion, with only $11 billion raised in the first round, and its valuation dropped from the initially sought $1.5 trillion to $1.25 trillion; SB Energy, deeply tied to OpenAI, with a $50 billion valuation and a planned $5 billion IPO, was also forced to delay.
After the Democrats won the midterm elections, many places in the U.S. began restricting AI data centers, further hitting market confidence.
Therefore, SoftBank’s reported plan to invest $50 billion in Malaysia may not be expansion, but more like finding a second base for AI computing power after U.S. regulatory tightening.
If you hold SoftBank stock, prepare to make some gains around the earnings release. I think what really matters in tomorrow’s report is not how much profit is on the books, but whether SoftBank still has enough cash and financing ability to continue this AI gamble.4%，但台股今天一开盘，给英伟达组装 AI 服务器的鸿海直接涨了快 6%🧐 鸿海开盘半小时，就把周五那天跌掉的全涨回来了，整个台股涨了 1200 多点。 外面都在喊周一亚洲要被老黄砸，结果英伟达自己在跌，它的台湾供应链在涨。 看一下时间就懂了。 台股周五下午 1 点半就收盘了，那天晚上费半涨了 4.2%，台积电 ADR 涨了 6.3%，台股今天是在补这一晚。 老黄认错、董事会立案调查，都是今天凌晨 4 点的事，英伟达正股到现在一分钟都还没交易过。 欧易的永续现在 180 左右，资金费率转成了负的，做空的在倒贴钱给做多的。 今晚 10 点半美股开盘，英伟达要是真低开 4%，台股这 1200 点明天还剩多少。。The overnight plunge was harsher than expected, with $BTC dropping to 73,508, causing the entire market to lose over 850 million. Long positions held 90% of the losses. But the funding rate and long-short ratio are conflicting; some say the funding rate is still at 0.0028%, others say it has turned negative, while the long-short account ratio rose to 2.86. Those bottom-fishing haven't pulled out; what's being washed out is leverage, not positions.
On the $SOL side, it's even more direct. The Lujiazui ads went out but didn't gain traction before the central bank and multiple departments jointly halted offline activities, also stating they will investigate the involved entities. Regulatory gaps have never loosened.
The A-share market saw 1.01 trillion in half a day, with coal, commercial aerospace, and CPO rotating the gains, but the volume shrank by 111.6 billion compared to last Friday. The rotation is as fast as a fan; chasing highs is easy to get burned.
The US stock market's semiconductor sector rebounded 4.21%, AMD surged 11%, but the Dow Jones fell, and 7 of the 11 S&P sectors closed in the red. This rebound hasn't spread; it looks more like a breather after a sharp drop. $ETH stayed silent throughout, clearly weak.The rebound after the liquidation wave early this morning didn't hold: $BTC once pulled back above 75,500, but now it's back around 74,140, down 2.25% in 24h; $ETH is weaker at 2,105, down 5.8% in 24h, not far from the 2,060 spike low.
The funding side isn't helping either. Farside data shows that last week (11/2-11/6), US spot BTC ETFs had a net outflow of about $1.28 billion, with IBIT alone outflowing about $1.21 billion, and another $412 million outflow on Friday alone.
On the contracts side, Binance ETH perpetual funding rate is still negative at -0.0033%, BTC at 0.01%. CoinGlass shows that liquidations in the last 4 hours are only a bit over $20 million, meaning leverage has basically been cleaned out once.
My view is that the main pressure on price now comes from spot and ETF sell orders, not leverage. Before the US CPI release on Tuesday, rebounds near 75,500 will likely still face selling pressure. Don't mistake a technical rebound after liquidation for a reversal.
$BTC $ETH从7天的清算图来看，90%以上的多头都被清理干净了，剩下的多头都是一些低杠杆了，继续往下跌意义不大了。 就算再跌破72w价格，那也就清算一两亿美金而已，这还没排除散户到时候增加保证金的情况下，增加了保证金后清算价肯定更远的，所以剩下的一些苦苦支撑的多头，狗庄很难收割。 清算也是清算那些喜欢玩高倍杠杆的，这个时候应该是准备上涨去割空头了，如果价格再次上到82w价格，那将要清洗掉20亿美金的空军。 所以你说大饼是继续下跌还是拉上去收割空头？按照历史以往来看，每轮这种行情基本都是双割，时间上它可能会迟到，但肯定不会缺席。 他会给你一种涨也涨不上去的感觉，慢悠悠最后直接拉上去清算完空军，所以现阶段真的很难