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Bitcoin continues to decline, and market panic is intensifying, but on-chain data shows unusual changes.
Recent data indicates that some long-term holders have started moving chips to exchanges, with signs of loss-driven exits increasing, suggesting that confidence in holding old chips is being tested. However, short-term holders have not shown obvious concentrated selling, and the holding cost around 75K–76K has temporarily formed some support.
More notably, although the overall market loss scale remains high, the rate of loss expansion has slowed. This means selling pressure still exists, but the momentum for panic to further spread may be weakening.
Personally, I tend to believe that BTC is still in the chip restructuring phase after the decline; it cannot be simply defined as the end of a bull market, nor should the bottom be hastily confirmed.
$BTC #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4%
What truly deserves attention next is whether sustained capital absorption can occur after the panic selling pressure is released. Price declines are not frightening; the key lies in who the market chips are flowing to during the decline. The three short positions publicly announced in the square on November 6th, here’s the follow-up today!
Targets given at the time:
$SKHYNIX: 800
$SNDK: 820
$MU: 660
As of today, the three strategies have respectively recorded:
SKHYNIX: 8.38% decline
SNDK: 13.45% decline
MU: 8.78% decline
All three directions were correct! The core logic behind this bearish view is that although AI’s long-term demand remains, the short-term market expectations and valuations might be overheated. Once capital is repriced, a pullback comes.
Calling out trades isn’t about finding reasons after the fact; giving direction and targets in advance is what makes reviewing meaningful.
Next, continue to keep an eye on the memory chip sector to see how far this round of adjustment will go! #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ Recently detected that a certain mysterious whale's total perpetual contract position reaches as high as 490 million U, with three short positions all floating in profit, consistently earning funding fees over the long term—this rhythm is very steady.
Specifically, $BTC short 5X full position, holding -2091 contracts, valued at 160 million U, opened at 77924, unrealized profit +5.46 million U, funding fees +3.33 million U;
$ETH short 5X, holding -33,600 contracts, valued at 74.39 million U, opened at 2375, unrealized profit +5.49 million U, funding fees +3.51 million U;
$SOL short 5X, holding -222,200 contracts, valued at 19.54 million U, opened at 91.4, unrealized profit +760,000 U, funding fees +560,000 U.
The market crashed sharply early this morning, everyone please pay attention to position control!
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw a net outflow exceeding 1.6 billion USD in a single week
$BTC $ETH $SOL To be honest, the recent crash in crypto and $BTC has probably exceeded the expectations of most people in the crypto community. This drop was supported by the 120-day moving average on the daily chart but then continued to break through, creating a scenario of multiple sell-offs.
I carefully examined the weekly chart of $BTC, and the support level at this weekly scale has already been broken, and it was a smooth break without any rebound. This definitely adds insult to injury for the future of crypto. Currently, there is no sign of any capital movement that could rescue crypto!
$BTC has dropped nearly 40% from last year's high. Although a 60-70% drop is common when crypto turns from bull to bear, this time there was a capital replenishment wave in August, so logically, capital shouldn't have withdrawn so quickly within just a few months.
There are indeed many reasons for this crash, and I have summarized six points, three or four of which I have mentioned before. First is the return of rate hike expectations, meaning the market's price-in of rate hikes has shifted from delayed hikes to confirmed hikes; second is the continuous outflow of institutional funds, with $1.28 billion flowing out in just one week, causing crypto liquidity to further dry up!
Then there is the Democratic Party's sweeping victory, which will definitely delay the enactment of crypto legislation, and next door, the creation of the largest wallet theft case in history, leading to a reassessment of crypto security; finally, the involvement of the US stock market and the cascading liquidations from multiple leveraged sell-offs!
Tough times are coming for crypto!
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ 🔥Woke up to find BTC suddenly spiking near $73,000; this drop really caught everyone off guard!
📉 In the early morning, the market suddenly saw a surge in volume with a sharp sell-off, BTC hitting a low around $73,761, and ETH briefly dropping below $2,100. Even more dramatic, a large number of leveraged long positions were forcibly liquidated in a short time, with over $1 billion liquidated across the market in 24 hours, about $913 million of which were long positions.
💥 This time, it’s not that there was no news, but rather several events coincided: Nvidia-related investigation news sparked concerns in tech stocks, stalled US-Iran talks increased geopolitical risks. Traditional markets were closed over the weekend, but crypto markets kept trading, with relatively thin liquidity, so the impact of news was easily amplified.
🧭 I tend to interpret this drop as a combination of worsening risk sentiment and long liquidations, rather than a simple technical correction. The key for BTC now is whether it can hold near $73,000 and if any rebound is supported by spot trading volume. Don’t rush to short today, and don’t blindly buy the dip just because of the spike. Do you think this is a shakeout, or is the downtrend not over yet? #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ Today I looked back at Bitcoin's weekly chart for 2023 and found this current position really familiar! 😁
$BTC
Back then, BTC was also repeatedly fluctuating near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, then gradually stabilized, and subsequently launched into a magnificent bull market.
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？
Now BTC has dropped again to around $73,900, with the Bollinger Bands middle band at $74,300, just over $400 apart. Honestly, this drop is indeed harsher than I expected; the 50-week moving average and the bull-bear transition zone both failed to hold, so now we can only hope for support at the Bollinger Bands middle band. However, holding in 2023 doesn't guarantee it will hold this time.
I hope it can stabilize here in the coming weeks and climb back above the middle band. This bull has been really testing the bulls lately; it's about time to give everyone some hope!ETH Daily Review: Support Fully Broken, Rebound Only an Escape Wave ✅
Current ETH price is 2133, down 4.52% intraday, the weakest among major coins this round.
Previous supports at 2210, 2183, and 2154 have all been breached, with the 200-day moving average broken for the first time effectively, bottoming at 2063. The mid-term support structure is directly broken.
Three core reasons for weakness: ETF outflows for six consecutive weeks, delayed upgrade expectations, and rising interest rate expectations suppressing non-yield assets. Large liquidation orders are also concentrated on ETH this round, with 4H RSI deeply oversold.
Remember: Oversold conditions only bring rebounds, not trend reversals.
Key levels:
• Lifeline support: 2063, break below targets 1980
• Resistance: 2154, former support turned resistance; rebounds before reclaiming this are escape waves
Intraday range: 2080–2170
Stop loss defense: 2055
Be cautious before tomorrow night’s CPI data release; avoid bottom fishing rashly.Safe havens and speculation both rise, but the middle layer collapsed.
Today on OKX, there are 85 names with over one million in trading volume, but only 11 are up. $BTC and $ETH alone account for 55.2% of the volume, the top 10 combined make up 82.5%, and the remaining 75 share less than 20%.
The gainers are at two extremes: $PEPE +3.69%, gold token $XAUT +0.70%. The other 74 in the middle are all green.
Three free checks: First, the distribution of gains and losses on the market page—if the proportion of gainers is less than 30%, forget about rotation; second, the top 10's share of trading volume—over 80% means the money hasn't really spread out; third, comparing the two extremes of safe havens and speculation—both rising simultaneously means division, not rotation.
My judgment: This is not rotation, it's betting on both ends. Watching and waiting, because the middle layer has no support.
My personal watch: If the proportion of gainers within 24 hours returns above 40%, I'll change my view.
Your choice: stand with the two ends, or wait for the middle to recover?
$BTC $ETH $PEPE $XAUT #OKXOrbit #Meme #CryptoWatch
Crypto assets are high risk; the above is personal observation and not investment advice. Please judge for yourself (DYOR).🔥ETH has dropped from $2800 to around $2100, and this speed is no longer just ordinary volatility but a severe risk release!
📊 In the previous round, ETH started from around $1900, surged strongly, and then quickly pulled back, indicating that the funds chasing the high price faced considerable pressure. The $2000 level is an important psychological barrier, but just because the price started rising from here before, it doesn't mean it won't break below this time.
🧭 Moving forward, I lean more towards a range-bound approach: if ETH shows signs of stopping the decline below $2100 and reclaims key positions, we can watch for rebound opportunities; if the rebound lacks volume and continues to hit new lows, don't rush to buy.
💪 BTC remains relatively strong. In the short term, pay attention to the performance around $72,000. If it further dips to $71,000, observe whether there is volume-supported buying. Buying high and selling low sounds simple, but the real challenge is waiting for confirmation, not guessing the bottom prematurely.
⚠️ Today, especially watch out for leverage risks. The rebound after a sharp drop can also be intense. Do you prefer to trade within the range or wait for a clear trend before entering? #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ Funds first withdraw, positions adjust later
This week, crypto spot ETFs are under pressure: BTC and ETH combined net outflows exceed $1.6 billion, with about $1.28 billion from BTC and about $365 million from ETH. BlackRock's IBIT has net withdrawn for five consecutive trading days, while Fidelity has slightly bought against the trend. The capital flow does not show retail panic but rather institutions reallocating risk budgets.
The background is a tighter macro interest rate expectation and a retreat in tech stocks, with high-volatility assets being reduced first, and ETFs becoming the entry point for portfolio adjustments. Therefore, this round of outflows should not be directly interpreted as a crash signal but is closer to a "risk appetite cleansing": first reducing leverage and positions, then waiting for new pricing conditions.
In terms of operations, I do not chase rebounds and continue to hold the base positions. Going forward, I only watch for two confirmation signals: one is ETF outflows stopping and turning into net inflows; the other is BTC volume surging back to the key area. Before either appears, I prefer to be slow rather than jump the gun.
$BTC $ETH
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $BTC 跌破76000、$ETH 徘徊在2240附近，而现货ETF单周净流出超过16亿美元——这是当前最值得盯住的信号组合。多数人看到的是“跌势确认”，但我看到的是一个正在被低估的博弈窗口：下跌空间已经明显收窄，而市场情绪仍在单向押注继续崩。 先看事实。$BTC现价低于76000，$ETH在2240一线；近期确实有可能进一步下探至72000和2100，但把这段距离放到更大的结构里看，继续向下的空间并不算大。真正的问题是，这轮下跌至今没有出现有效修复，价格在低位反复磨蹭，而不是干脆利落地释放恐慌。这种“跌不动又弹不起”的状态，往往意味着空头动能正在被时间消耗。 我的判断是：会有一波反弹，$BTC有望回到78000附近。这不是看多转势，而是节奏问题。当前这个位置直接追空，性价比很低——你卖在低位，一旦反弹就被动挨打。更合理的路径是等待反弹到位后再考虑做空，把入场点放在更有优势的区域。交易的核心从来不是方向对不对，而是位置好不好：位置对了，进场即有浮盈，持仓心态才稳；位置错了，再正确的判断也会被波动折磨成亏损。 这里有一个容易被忽略的第二层逻辑：ETF单周净流出超16亿美元，说明机构资金在 大瓜！美参议院对加密圈挥起监管大棒，剑指币安、Tether与特朗普家族！ 美国参议院调查小组委员会近日发函，要求Binance、Tether、World Liberty Financial (WLF) 及特朗普币发行方在2027年1月4日前提交调查材料。这不仅是一场合规审查，更是一张提前发出的“政治传票”。 三大核心调查线索： 1️⃣ Binance（币安）：“金钱、赦免与USD1” · 伊朗资金：过去一年约1500个币安账户被伊朗籍人士访问，约17亿美元流向伊朗革命卫队等关联实体。 · 利益交换疑云：2025年10月特朗普签署对CZ的赦免令。同时，特朗普家族稳定币USD1绝大多数持仓集中在币安，且币安直接用USD1结算永续合约。调查要问：制裁放松、总统赦免与商业利益间，是否存在交换链？ 2️⃣ Tether（USDT）：伊朗影子银行的“基建” · 在846个受制裁的伊朗相关钱包中，高达84%几乎专用USDT交易。Tether回应自2026年来已协助冻结近5.5亿美元。 · 政商旋转门：Tether向咨询公司Nxum支付超600万美元，而该公司联合创始人曾任白宫加密货币委员会主管。Insight: Will compute contracts hinder the AI race?
AI not only lacks chips but also lacks control over compute.
Chamas believes that the deal between $SPCX and $ANTHROPIC could become a bottleneck. As data center licensing approvals slow down, the party that already has power and capacity will hold the advantage.
After the lock-up period ends, until early 2027, if SpaceX adjusts its pricing to market rates, Anthropic may ultimately have to pay higher fees.ETH｜Short positions planned in advance at 2145, lowest at 2081.41! The 2080 target was almost precisely hit!
Today's short plan for ETH was also publicly shared in advance.
Aggressive short: around 2145.
Conservative short: 2160—2180.
Stop loss: 2200.
Targets: 2120, 2080.
From around 2145, ETH dropped step by step, breaking below 2120 first, then reaching a low of 2081.41, just 1.41 points away from the previously given second target of 2080!
This is not a bearish view expressed after the market fell, but a plan with direction, entry points, and targets all disclosed before the price dropped.
Why insist on shorting on the rebound?
Because at that time, the rebound after ETH's sharp drop was limited, the macro environment and geopolitical risks had not eased significantly, and the risk of bottom-fishing recklessly was much greater than the necessity to wait for a rebound.
Short at 2145 in advance, first target 2120, second target 2080, the market verified step by step.
No guessing the bottom, no holding losing positions, no martingale.
Trading is not about proving yourself with words, but about giving plans in advance and letting the market test them. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% After hackers steal large amounts of assets, stablecoins (USDT/USDC) can be urgently frozen by the issuers, but ETH cannot be frozen. Therefore, hackers prioritize converting stablecoins into ETH and gradually selling them off on decentralized exchanges (DEX), creating continuous and targeted selling pressure on ETH. $ETH Additionally, hackers still hold approximately 467,000 to 525,000 ETH (worth over $1 billion), which constitutes a huge potential oversupply, continuously suppressing market seJust put the baby to sleep, then saw Core Trader 90 shorting $BTC with 40x leverage, position size 5 coins. 🍼
I don't take a large position as evidence of bearishness, but I care more about the pressure behind the leverage. Roughly calculating, excluding fees, if the price moves about 2.5% against the position, the loss would equal the initial margin, leaving very little room for error in judgment.
With my small amount of capital, I would first consider how much loss I can bear. When buying groceries, I still need to keep enough budget for a week; watching the market also requires leaving some margin for myself. Seeing "crypto financing doubles," my first reaction was that the bull market is back, but after checking the details, I realized I was overthinking it.
1.65 billion, Kalshi alone accounts for 1 billion, making up 60%. The remaining projects combined total 651 million, slightly less than last month. It's like the class average was pulled up by a top student, while the other students actually fell behind.
The most striking part is that if you remove the two largest amounts, the remaining money is the same as last month, not a penny more.
So don't rush to see if $BTC $ETH will rise or not; this round of money is for product makers, not for coin speculators.Senbei 11.9 Afternoon Session｜BTC breaks 74,000 again in the afternoon, how will the US stock market respond tonight?
At noon, BTC even touched 75,060, but by the afternoon it had dropped back to 73,751, a decline of about 1,309 points. ETH also fell from around 2,146 to 2,081, losing the 2,100 level again. The rebound at noon lasted into the afternoon, but both supports were broken. Next, if the price bounces back, first see if the original supports can be reclaimed; the subsequent highs have been capped below these two levels. Currently, BTC is around 73,800, ETH around 2,091, both not far from the morning lows.
There is a new variable in the US stock market tonight. Nvidia's board announced it has launched an independent investigation regarding reports that CEO Jensen Huang might be a target of foreign intelligence activities. Reuters earlier recorded an off-market quote of about 180.30, roughly 3.4% lower than last Friday's official close. The US stock market opens at 22:30 tonight; I will watch Nvidia, the Nasdaq, and crypto prices together. If tech stocks continue to weaken, BTC support near 73,385 and ETH near 2,052 will be tested again.
Regarding oil prices, Trump said if negotiations progress, the possibility of further strikes on Iran is lower, while Rubio stated that talks have made limited progress. How oil prices move next will continue to influence market inflation expectations. The US October CPI will be released tomorrow at 21:30; if core inflation is hotter than expected, watch if the 2-year US Treasury yield rises.
BTC's afternoon rebound was pressed down from 75,060 to around 74,630, with the 1-hour close falling below the noon focus at 74,444. ETH also closed below 2,116 on the 1-hour chart, and the 15-minute rebound was capped near 2,100. Both coins' 4-hour closes remain below their respective 20-period moving averages. Currently, I am treating this as a weak consolidation after a breakdown, waiting for prices to return near original supports before seeing if they hold.
For BTC, wait for 74,450 to 74,650, near the lower edge of the noon session and the 14:00 rebound high. Wait for the 15-minute close below 74,400, then if a rebound from 74,350 to 74,400 is resisted, consider shorting. Stop loss at 74,900, placed above the afternoon rebound high, corresponding to about 500 to 550 points. Target 1 is 73,750, target 2 is 73,400; if it breaks below the early morning low, then look at 73,000.
For ETH, wait for 2,115 to 2,125, near the noon lower edge and the 15-minute 20-period moving average. Wait for the 15-minute close below 2,110, then if a rebound from 2,107 to 2,110 is resisted, consider shorting. Stop loss at 2,135, target 1 at 2,082, target 2 at 2,055; if it breaks below the early morning low, then look at 2,000. Before entering, if BTC closes above 74,650 on the 1-hour chart or ETH closes above 2,125 on the 1-hour chart, pause the corresponding short plans.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC at 74k is a very critical position, hoping it can hold; if it can't, then brace for half a year to a year of waiting.
Never expected to reach 73k in this way... North Korean hackers and the US circuit breakers aren't as fierce as Huang Renxun's moves. I originally planned to go all-in on a black swan event, only to realize this is the real black swan 😭
This morning, retail investors were still very bullish, but the main players withdrew all large orders above 65k. Now retail is still enthusiastically long, while the main players have placed large orders at 70k. Strong altcoins are no longer hitting recent lows, but BTC is still probing the bottom, which is very rare...
The over 10k pullback I called at the end of September has already happened, a 13,000 dollar drop, nearly 16%. The weekly chart shows five consecutive bearish candles, the 3-day moving average is converging, and the daily, 3-day, and weekly charts are all oversold. BTC is still struggling in the negative gamma zone... I believe there is still a very strong demand for a rebound, but if 74k doesn't hold, then it's game over, and spot holders should just play dead.
Brothers, what do you think? Will it plunge straight down to 68k, or shoot like an arrow through the clouds to 80k?Short-term green candles can be the most misleading signal in crypto. The latest flow data around $BTC tells a story of divergence: spot and futures inflows lit up over recent hours, yet the 30-day net futures flow has drained roughly $8.4 billion. That gap matters. It suggests short-term capital is bidding up price while larger players use the recovery as an exit ramp. Retail spot buyers, meanwhile, appear to be quietly accumulating cheaper names near the bottom rather than chasing the headlineOctober financing doubled, sounds exciting, but the reality is different.
Out of $1.65 billion, $1 billion came from Kalshi's Series G round, accounting for 61%. Remove it, and the remaining projects have $651 million, which is even lower than the entire industry's $665 million in September. The so-called recovery is a figure propped up by a super individual case, not an industry-wide increase.
Peeling another layer: excluding the two largest deals of the month, the remainder is $451 million, almost the same as September's $455 million. Doubling the total amount but stagnating after removing the top deals is the most important comparison to remember.
The real money inflow is in two directions: payments with $342 million, with Whop alone at $200 million; RWA with $137 million, Spiko $90 million, Meanwhile $37.5 million. Capital no longer pays for narratives, only for things that can generate cash flow.
Institutions are indeed expanding: 155 participants, 16% more than September; Tether invested in 4 rounds, Sequoia in 3 rounds and led all of them. Less money, more bettors.
$BTC and $ETH won't get this infusion in the short term; money is not intended to enter the secondary market for liquidity. When capital concentrates on a few verified projects, what do the rest survive on? October saw 46 financing rounds and 13 acquisitions—acquisitions might be the main exit channel going forward.$75,775 has been broken.
On Sunday night, $BTC dropped from above $75,600 to about $73,477 within an hour. This is the lowest since August. The current price is around $74,800, down about 1.4% for the day. $ETH is around $2,128, down about 5% for the day. This marks the fifth consecutive week of decline.
The reason for the drop is not on-chain but in policy expectations. After the midterm elections, the Democrats took both chambers. The CLARITY Act has already stalled in the Senate since September, and traders are pricing in stricter regulations.
The turning point is tomorrow, with the October CPI release. If inflation is soft, first see if it can hold above $75,775. If inflation is hot, the 200-day moving average at about $73,170 is the next line. The conditions are set here; no conclusion yet.就算十笔交易里面，你判断对了八笔，账户依然有可能是亏钱的。 为什么？ 因为决定你最终能不能赚钱的，从来不只是胜率，还有一个更关键的因素：你有没有控制好那几笔亏损。 很多交易者看起来胜率很高，盈利单也不少，可一拉开账户曲线，却发现资金始终在原地打转，甚至越做越少。 问题往往就出在下面这五个地方。 一、胜率看着很高，资金曲线却始终涨不起来 举个例子： 十笔交易，八笔每笔赚100，另外两笔每笔亏500。 八笔盈利一共赚了800，两笔亏损却亏掉1000。十笔下来，不仅没赚钱，反而亏了200。 这就是典型的高胜率、低盈亏比。 所以复盘交易策略时，千万不要只看自己猜对了多少次，还要记录平均盈利、平均亏损，以及整体盈亏比。 胜率只能告诉你判断对了多少次，盈亏比才能帮你看清每次判断的价值。 二、盈利拿不住，亏损却总想死扛 刚赚一点，就担心利润回吐，赶紧平仓落袋为安。 一旦出现亏损，又开始安慰自己：再等等，也许就反弹了。 最后形成一种非常糟糕的习惯：盈利单拿得很短，亏损单却越扛越久。 记住，市场不会因为你的建仓成本而改变方向。 开仓之前就应该想清楚，在哪里止损、最多能承受多少亏损。触发预设条件，就按照计$SOL is being pressured on both ends today. Coinglass reports 85.4, down 4.2% in 24 hours, down 21.8% in 30 days, and it was still around 109 a month ago.
On the protocol side, Anza's Gabe Rodriguez proposed SIMD-0723 on November 5 to retire the durable nonce. In April, Drift lost $270 million relying on it: pre-signed multisig transactions remained valid, allowing attackers to submit them at chosen times. The draft will take effect as early as May 2027, with no alternative plan yet; custodians' cold wallet offline signing will need a complete rewrite by then.
Money is flowing out. According to SoSoValue data, the SOL spot ETF saw an outflow of $25.08 million on November 6, with a net outflow of $26.25 million from November 2 to 6 over the week.
All the contracts taking hits are longs. The entire network holds $5.15 billion in positions, with $5.98 billion in daily contract volume, and only $600 million in spot. Liquidations in 24 hours reached $40.89 million, with longs accounting for $38.74 million. Binance's long-short ratio is 3.43, OKX's is 3.59; despite a month of decline, longs are still buying the dip.
The nonce retirement is still six months away, so it can't push the price down; the pressure comes from ETF outflows and these long positions. Over 90 days, it’s still up 12%, having risen from around 75 in August. The long-short ratio dropping below 2 and several days of ETF inflows are needed to hold the 80 to 85 range; longs have not withdrawn, so the day they get squeezed out will likely see a drop straight to 75. $BTC $ETH $75,775 has been broken.
On Sunday night, $BTC dropped from above $75,600 to about $73,477 within an hour. This is the lowest since August. The current price is around $74,800, down about 1.4% for the day. $ETH is around $2,128, down about 5% for the day. This marks the fifth consecutive week of decline.
The reason for the drop is not on-chain but in policy expectations. After the midterm elections, the Democrats took both chambers. The CLARITY Act has already stalled in the Senate since September, and traders are pricing in stricter regulations.
The turning point is tomorrow, with the October CPI release. If inflation is soft, first see if it can hold above $75,775. If inflation is hot, the 200-day moving average at about $73,170 is the next line. The conditions are set here; no conclusion yet.Bitcoin's downward move this afternoon is not the same as the drop at dawn: the dawn drop was due to leverage being liquidated, while during the day, leverage was added back.
At 5 AM, within one hour, the price fell from around 75,750 to a low of 73,500. OKEx's total contract open interest dropped from about 3.827 billion USD to 3.706 billion USD, a decrease of approximately 121 million USD in one hour. By 7 AM, it rebounded to 75,738, looking like a washout.
Afterwards, the price gradually retraced, currently around 74,180, about 2% lower than the rebound high and about 680 above the dawn low. However, open interest did not decrease accordingly; by 4 PM, it returned to about 3.773 billion USD, recovering more than half of the 121 million USD wiped out at dawn.
Funding rates are also rising: 0.0013% at midnight settlement, 0.0021% at 8 AM, 0.0096% at 4 PM, with the next estimate still around 0.01%. The price is falling, but those holding long positions are paying more.
Therefore, the nearby 73,500 level is not a fully cleared position; it is holding the new long positions accumulated during the day. 73,500 is the lowest since August 21. If it truly breaks below, the first to break will likely be this batch of traders.
$BTC Maji blew up again, then immediately opened another position
Maji blew up again. This morning at 05:51, 540 $ETH long positions were fully liquidated at an average price of about $2192, wiping out the entire position, leaving only $16,610.
He withdrew the remaining approximately $16,600 to a demo account, where he lost $1.62 million; even the $485,000 reward couldn't cover the losses, and the account is still down about $1.14 million.
Shortly after the blowup, he acted again: sold 3 BAYC, withdrew 100 $ETH from Coinbase, gathered $53,000, transferred it back to Hyperliquid, and opened a new $1.48 million $ETH long position.
This isn't the first time: on October 15, he grew $56,000 to a $12.25 million account which was then liquidated down to just $21,800; on October 24, he blew up again, accumulating losses over $35.37 million; on October 30, he deposited $250,000 to restart, and today it's gone again.
Three blowups in one month, Maji hasn't changed the script.The October CPI will directly test the current market consensus of a "high probability of a rate hike in December." After the Federal Reserve chose to hold steady at the October meeting, funds have concentrated the main rate hike window on the December 8-9 meeting, with the current probability of a rate hike above 75%.
The core significance of this data lies in whether it can make the market reassess "whether inflation stickiness is still sufficient to support another rate hike."
The scenarios roughly split into two extremes. If the core month-on-month increase is significantly below 0.2%, and pressures from housing and services continue to ease, the probability of a December rate hike may fall from the current high level, and the market will reconsider the possibility of "pausing after one rate hike," with long-term yields and the dollar potentially under pressure.
If the core month-on-month increase reaches or exceeds 0.3%, and the price increases are broad-based, the rate hike expectations will be further locked in, possibly even triggering pricing for a more hawkish subsequent path.
Currently, the market has priced in December action at a relatively high level, so "meeting expectations" may have limited impact on the rate hike probability; exceeding expectations is the real variable. Recent fluctuations in energy prices remain the main disturbance to overall CPI, but the Federal Reserve focuses more on the core trend.
After the data release, it is necessary to judge whether to change the policy narrative based on the component structure. For trading, this is the last key inflation anchor before the December meeting, and price sensitivity to core components will be higher than to the overall figure.#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ The US October CPI will be released on November 10 (8:30 AM Eastern Time), and it is one of the most important inflation data points before the December FOMC meeting. The overall CPI year-on-year for September has risen to 3.7%, with the core year-on-year around 2.6%. The market generally expects the overall month-on-month for October to be about 0.24%-0.3%, and the core month-on-month about 0.2%, mainly supported by a slowdown in gasoline price increases and a decline in some commodity prices.
The expectation for a rate hike in December is currently high. CME FedWatch, Polymarket, and others show about a 76%-80% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December, with about a 20% probability of no change. The October meeting was held steady, pushing the window for action to December.
If the core month-on-month lands at 0.2% or below, and subcomponents (especially housing and core services) do not show significant acceleration, it may slightly reduce the probability of a rate hike in December; if the core month-on-month rises to 0.3% or above, and the diffusion is broader, it will further consolidate or even increase rate hike expectations.
For the market, single-month data will not solely determine policy but will significantly affect interest rate path pricing. Soft data is favorable for a decline in US Treasury yields and a breather for risk assets; hot data strengthens the upward pressure on the dollar and yields. Focus on core services, housing subcomponents, and signs of energy transmission to the core. Before the December meeting, there are also November employment and more inflation data; this CPI is key but not the only variable. #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ When I saw this message, my first reaction was not "regulation again," but rather: crypto assets have moved one step closer to ordinary property. I think this is beneficial for legal certainty, but it cannot be directly translated into a positive impact on coin prices.
On November 9, the Administrative Office of the Supreme Court of South Korea announced that the revised Civil Execution Rules took effect on November 1, clarifying the procedures for seizure, transfer, and liquidation of crypto assets. Platforms holding coins can seize users' asset transfer requests; assets in personal wallets can be prohibited from disposal and must be handed over to enforcement officers for management, then lawfully sold or transferred to creditors.
What really matters is that creditors now have a clearer path to recover assets. The number of civil enforcement cases involving related platforms increased from 423 in 2023 to 3,136 in 2025, and reached 3,186 in the first nine months of 2026. This volume indicates that the execution rules respond to real disputes, not just theoretical fixes.
For ordinary users, I want to remind myself: holding private keys does not mean assets are outside the law. But just because courts can issue orders does not mean on-chain assets will automatically be received. If actual enforcement still depends on debtor cooperation, then there may still be a gap between clear rules and smooth execution — this is my speculation.
I will continue to observe how far actual enforcement can go, rather than rushing to label this news as bullish or bearish.BTC's trend one year after the midterm elections!
Long-term value investing is not about buying into trends, but about finding stable value assets within the trend and holding them at a reasonable price. $BTC $ETH
#BTC现货ETF连续流出 You might think the problem with CORE is that no one is supporting its price, but what’s even more painful is that it’s losing even the qualification to be traded. A four-year cycle has passed, and are you still waiting for it to tell a new story? Recently, I reviewed CORE’s price trend, and my biggest feeling wasn’t anger, but calm. Without institutional endorsement or major capital support, the market depth is basically sustained by retail investors betting against each other and system matching. In this structure, rebounds often just follow the overall market sentiment and rarely develop into independent trends. What’s more alarming is that the time cost has already sunk: after completing the four-year cycle, the ecosystem hasn’t taken root, market cap hasn’t grown, and the price has returned near the starting point. This actually indicates that its development logic has already failed once. But I want to correct a common misjudgment: many people attribute CORE’s weakness simply to the “project being no good,” ignoring the cross-market linkage transmission. At the current stage, the risk appetite of BTC and ETH is the master switch for altcoin rhythms. Capital first looks at the certainty of mainstream assets before deciding whether to penetrate downward. Without real incremental capital entering CORE, it means it’s at the end of the linkage chain—when the market rises, it lags; when the market falls, it bleeds first. This is not a narrative issue, but a capital priority issue. Even on the bullish path, one must stay clear-headed: if there is substantial business progress later, or breakthrough capital injection, combined with BTC stabilizing and driving risk appetite recovery, CORE theoretically could have a corrective emotional catch-up rally. But the potential risk is also obvious: without ecosystem and market cap support, the asset is most likely to become a distribution target during divergence phases, reversing.Unitree rises again by 6.63%, shorts lose money every hour
UNITREE perpetual contract currently at $104.26, up about 6.63% in 24 hours. From 9 AM to 3 PM today, there were 7 consecutive negative settlement rounds, with a peak hourly rate of −0.258% at 11 AM. The current reference rate remains at −0.144%, annualized over 1400%.
The painful part is for the shorts holding on. The address starting with 0xfdf1 began shorting on October 20, with a cumulative net funding payment of $112,100 over 20 days, exceeding 113.70% of its 10x leverage-adjusted initial margin (about $98,600). Including unrealized and realized losses, the total loss in this round is about $430,400.
For those holding contracts, just watch one number: the liquidation price for this address is $124.36, about 19.2% above the current price as a buffer. If the funding rate doesn't turn positive, this contrarian short position is essentially exchanging principal for time.Ethereum has dropped, so why is Arbitrum's token still rising?
$ETH is quoted at 2,143.77 USDT, down 4.2% in the last 24 hours, while $ARB is at 0.1718 USDT, up 1.2%. The divergence occurs in the latter half of the rebound: ARB has already surpassed the pre-drop level around 0.167, whereas ETH remains below the previous sideways level of 2,230. Technically, the two are related, but short-term trading differs. When trading on Arbitrum One, fees are generally paid in ETH, and buying ARB is essentially bidding for governance rights and ecosystem expectations.
As another layer-2, $OP hasn't followed ARB's trend. OP is quoted at 0.09985 USDT, down 1.5% in the last 24 hours, bouncing near 0.10 before dropping again. The OP mainnet also uses ETH to pay fees; more chain usage means more transaction fees. However, this time the market prices for OP and ARB have diverged. Looking at these two trends, saying that layer-2 tokens are strengthening together doesn't align with OP's market performance.
Let's compare with SOL. At 87.8 USDT, down 1.6% in the last 24 hours, its drop is close to OP's, but the fee payment paths differ: Solana's base fees and optional priority fees are paid in SOL. When the network is congested, how much users are willing to pay for priority reveals how urgent transactions are within applications. It's convenient to place public chain tokens and layer-2 governance tokens on the same price movement list, but what's truly useful is knowing what currency users ultimately use to pay those fees.$BTC Short-term holders underwater at ~$75,700 — that level is resistance now, not support. #BTC #Bitcoin$BTC $ETH 加密市场杠杆水平正在回落，比特币（$BTC）和以太坊（$ETH）的资金费率靠近中性，说明投机仓位没有过度拥挤，但这不代表下跌趋势已经反转，关键的现货买盘并没有跟上。 比特币现货 ETF 上周净流出 12.8 亿，资金转向非常突然，从周一的净流入快速转为周六的净流出，机构集中撤离，偏向避险离场。以太坊（$ETH）的情况更持久，现货 ETF 已经连续六周流出，累计流出规模大约 20.2 亿，持续消耗市场情绪。 杠杆泡沫被挤出，只是仓位不再拥挤，不等于行情迎来转折。缺少现货持续买入支撑，市场没有新的承接力量。接下来的重点要看即将公布的 CPI 数据，这会判断本轮 ETF 外流只是短期清洗，还是机构长期调仓的开端。在现货资金流出现改善前，行情更偏向横盘或者继续下探，通胀数据是接下来最重要的宏观测试。Right now, many groups are discussing OKB, and it's mostly all criticism. A consensus has been reached that no veteran players dare to play anymore; it's all newcomers and newbies buying. The newcomers and newbies were fooled by a group of KOLs from Orbit some time ago. Those posting to hype it up are said to be paid promoters helping to unload tokens because OKX plans to abandon OKB, but Mr. Xu and the platform hold over 19 million OKB and want to sell. So every time someone posts to praise OKB, it's actually a slow sell-off. At this stage, it's just continuous selling; once it's all sold, OKB will be delisted, ending up like OKT. Some say it's already decided, others say it will be even worse than OKT. They say the team lacks vision and is solely focused on harvesting users. It can't compare to Binance because where is the price? All BNB holders have made money. Also, starting today, the price will keep falling. Recent Crypto Market Analysis
BTC is reported around $74,200, with a weekend dip to 73,708, marking the lowest since August, down 41% from the all-time high of 126,259 in October last year; ETH fell faster, briefly breaking below 2,100; XRP is approaching the $1 mark.
Over $1 billion in liquidations across the network in 24 hours, 90% of which are long positions, with 140,000 people liquidated — leveraged longs have been wiped out in two rounds.
Why the drop?
1. Regulatory shift — Democrats swept Congress, with strict regulator Warren possibly taking control of the Senate Banking Committee; crypto legislation pushed by Republicans over the past two years faces reversal.
2. Institutional retreat — Spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.28 billion last week, the largest since the end of June; selling pressure has surpassed the leverage layer and hit the spot layer.
3. Macro rate hikes — After a strong nonfarm payroll report, the probability of a rate hike in December is near 80%, raising the opportunity cost of non-yielding assets.
4. AI bubble resonance — The Nasdaq is undergoing a technical correction; crypto and tech stocks share the same risk appetite pool.
5. Exchange risks — The aftermath of a $6 billion theft at a certain exchange remains unsettled; the U.S. Treasury has cut off MEXC's USD channel, increasing counterparty risk.
The weekend was further complicated by scandals involving Huang Renxun and deadlock in U.S.-Iran negotiations — with U.S. stock markets closed, crypto became the only pressure relief valve.
Don't go all-in in panic, nor exit entirely in panic.
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $CORE 🚨 Only 150 minutes left until OKX reopens deposits and withdrawals for $CORE! 🕰️
If resumed according to the announced time, this will be an important window to observe liquidity.
It is worth noting that this is already the second time this quarter that CORE has experienced a suspension of deposits and withdrawals.
From the previous abnormal reward incident, to the theft of B14g staked assets, and then the exchange suspending deposits and withdrawals, CORE is facing not only price pressure but also a test of market trust and liquidity.
Resuming deposits and withdrawals does not mean trust is simultaneously restored.
What really needs to be observed next is:
Will there be concentrated withdrawals after resumption?
Will the price gap inside and outside the exchange widen?
Is CORE facing a new round of selling pressure?
The market will provide answers through capital flows.
Personal opinion, not investment advice, DYOR. NVIDIA drops nearly 4%, while Hon Hai surges nearly 6%! What exactly is the market trading this time? 🧐
The scandal involving Huang's extramarital affair continues to ferment. NVIDIA perpetual contracts on OKX once fell nearly 4%, but on the other side, the Taiwan stock market showed a completely different trend.
Hon Hai, which assembles AI servers for NVIDIA, surged nearly 6% right at today's open! In just half an hour, it not only recovered all the losses from Friday but also drove the Taiwan stock index up by more than 1,200 points.
Originally, the market was worried that the Asian markets on Monday would be dragged down by the NVIDIA news. Unexpectedly, while NVIDIA is falling, Taiwan's AI supply chain is actually rising.
The key is to clarify the timeline first:
1️⃣ Taiwan stocks closed at 1:30 PM on Friday. 2️⃣ Subsequently, the U.S. semiconductor sector rose 4.2%, and TSMC ADR surged 6.3%. 3️⃣ Today's rise in Taiwan stocks largely makes up for the overnight gains after Friday's close. 4️⃣ Huang's admission of the extramarital affair and the board's investigation started around 4 AM today, when NVIDIA's U.S. stock had not yet opened for trading.
Looking at the crypto market, OKX's NVIDIA perpetual contracts fluctuate around $180, and the funding rate has turned negative, meaning shorts are starting to pay funding fees to longs.
What really deserves attention is the U.S. stock market opening tonight.
If NVIDIA's stock really opens 4% lower, how much of today's 1,200+ point gain in Taiwan stocks can hold tomorrow?
Short-term sentiment is one thing; how capital truly prices it is another.
Tonight, keep a close eye on NVIDIAMy first reaction: It’s like seeing someone pushing a shopping cart into a supermarket, and someone next to them immediately shouts, "New spending has arrived!" But I want to ask: Bro, did you just get paid, or did you return goods to the neighboring store? 😂
According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi’s monitoring, 0xFD1…6FEe3 bought 10,000 ETH through CowSwap at an average price of $2,149.25, worth about $21.49 million. ETH has become the largest on-chain asset for this address. I think this transaction is big enough, but it can’t be directly taken as evidence of new industry capital inflow.
The reason is simple: the data doesn’t explain the source of funds, and the purchase scale doesn’t equal the scale of new funds; a single address doesn’t represent all positions held by the owner. If related addresses are simultaneously reducing holdings, then the overall exposure may not increase synchronously — this is my speculation and needs further verification.
Would you rather first check the source of funds or whether related addresses have done reverse operations? I choose the former; even when watching the drama, you have to see which cart the melon was unloaded from first.Sandisk (SNDK) Stock Split First Day: $835 "Visually Cheap," But Valuation Disagreement Remains
On November 9, Sandisk's 1-for-8 stock split officially took effect, with each share split into 8 shares. Trading with the adjusted split price will begin on November 20. Last Friday's closing price was $835.06, with intraday fluctuations ranging from $816 to $912, ultimately closing near the lower end of that range.
The stock split does not change any fundamentals but presents a clearer choice: a company with a forward PE of only 3.67 times and a long-term contract locked in for about 50% bit shipment in fiscal year 2027, yet the market is only willing to assign this multiple. Before the split, Wells Fargo and RBC had just cut their target prices from $1550 and $1600 to $1300 and $1400 respectively, citing "shrinking earnings multiples"; meanwhile, Bernstein's pre-split target price of $3000, after the split, equates to about $375, still several times above the current price.
The stock split lowered the per-share price to a "visually cheap" range, but $835 is just arithmetic, not a valuation answer. The real issue remains unresolved: how many times the market is willing to multiply a cyclical profit that will eventually decline. After trading begins with the split adjustment on November 20, whether incremental buying can offset this gravitational pull is what should be watched next.Bitcoin prices continue to decline, and market panic is spreading, but on-chain data shows an intriguing divergence: long-term holders' positions are starting to loosen, while short-term holders remain relatively stable in sentiment.
According to on-chain data from November 5, the realized loss scale of chips transferred by long-term holders (LTH) to exchanges reached 139 million, indicating that some older chips held for a long period can no longer withstand the ongoing pressure in the market and have chosen to exit. In contrast, short-term holders (STH) have not simultaneously triggered panic selling of the same scale. After sufficient turnover in the previous period, the average holding cost of the short-term holding group has dropped to the 75K–76K range, and the current coin price is just near their breakeven line, so no concentrated stop-loss has been triggered.
Another key signal worth noting: although the absolute scale of realized losses across the market remains high, the losses have not continued to accelerate. This sends a clear message—market panic does exist now, but the momentum for further panic spread is weakening. I personally tend to judge that BTC is currently in the early stage of a bull market, undergoing a challenging chip restructuring period. $BTC #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ An address under continuous surveillance did something counterintuitive on-chain.
In August this year, the address 0xde8d...9524 related to the UXLINK security incident pushed a large amount of funds into Hyperliquid, establishing long positions on $ETH, $SOL, and $XRP perpetuals: about 30,282 ETH, 550,000 SOL, and approximately 35.03 million XRP, with a nominal value close to $148 million, quietly maintaining the positions for nearly three months.
Common sense suggests that assets of unknown origin should be quickly layered, transferred, or disappear. Instead, it put the money into a public, leveraged contract account and then took directional bets.
On November 9, it used TWAP to gradually close the long positions in batches, completing execution in about 16 hours, exiting around 6 a.m. the next day. Estimated losses were about $3.3 million. Losing $3.3 million on a $148 million position is just a few percentage points, far from liquidation. This was not a forced liquidation but a paced surrender.
Why at this timing? One can only speculate: the heavy position exposure was too obvious, continuing to hold meant bearing volatility under the spotlight; the tracked identity combined with large contracts inherently created uncertainty. The pressure may not have come from price.
Previously, tracking stolen assets ended with where the money stopped; now funds may complete the cycle from opening to closing positions within decentralized derivatives. Attackers can also be wrong about direction—should "hacker profits" be deducted by losses?上周（11月2日至8日）风险资产整体偏弱，周中加密市场一度反弹，周五美股科技与存储板块急跌后，风险情绪再度转弱。BTC、ETH反弹未能延续，原油高位日线高点信号兑现，黄金则从年内低位反弹并重新站上4K。盘面主线仍是美股波动向加密市场传导，商品走势则出现分化。 BTC周初从7.65附近的1H低点反弹至7.85附近，但始终未能重新站稳8W。周中大饼跟随市场反弹，ETH突破下降线后，BTC也一度走强，不过仍未能突破前高8.2。周五美股大跌后，BTC又回到7.6附近。进入本周一早盘，价格进一步下探并短暂跌破7.5三角支撑；虽然出现12H低点，但目前还不足以改变弱势结构。 ETH上周初在2250附近承压，周四一度突破下降趋势线并来到2400附近，短期目标曾看2520；但周五美股急跌后又回到2200附近，本周一早盘进一步跌破2200，表现比BTC更弱。SOL刷新下跌新低，BNB、NEAR、ZEC也出现不同程度的回落。加密市场缺乏持续热点和广泛赚钱效应，短线反弹仍需要BTC、ETH及其他主流币共同确认。 美股方面，QQQ在此前跌破日线趋势后，两次回踩730都没能重新站上。上周五科技、存储等AI相关板The hypothetical figure of “$62.6 billion” is indeed eye-catching. I used to be easily swayed by such big headlines, directly translating “possible” in my mind to “imminent.” The flawed thinking lies here: mistaking the impact of the story for the weight of evidence.
This material links marriage rumors, company investigations, and market fluctuations together, but until the original letters and announcements are verified, I won’t take it at face value. My judgment is that the most easily overestimated inference is the one that “divorce will inevitably trigger massive sell-offs”: whether there is a divorce, how assets are divided, and whether sales occur cannot be equated. If this narrative spreads to AI-related sectors, I guess the most common mistake ordinary people make is using unverified gossip as leverage justification.
Now I set two rules for myself: first, major news must be traced to original sources; second, assumptions about family wealth should not be directly treated as trading signals. Honestly, missing out on the hype once is more important than rushing to prove you’re quick to react."The earliest will be May 2027," I think this is the most significant information in Solana's proposal to deprecate persistent Nonce: the technical mechanism can be phased out, but the migration pressure cannot be dumped on users overnight.
The proposal is still pending finalization, including content such as custodians switching to a new offline signing process and the alternative program adopting different rules for failed transactions. I prefer to see it as an infrastructure migration issue rather than a market catalyst; those more directly affected are custodians relying on the existing process.
Why focus on this timing? Because adjustments to the offline signing process could impact the entire business chain. My guess is that if custodians need to simultaneously modify signing, approval, and exception handling steps, then allowing enough verification window is more important than rushing to complete the upgrade. The calendar buffer ultimately needs to translate into operational reliability.
But I also don’t want to misinterpret "there’s still time" as "the problem is solved." The proposal sets boundaries but does not complete the migration for institutions, nor can it be used to judge what experience improvements ordinary users will get. Next, I will look at whether the alternative process can be clearly explained and thoroughly tested, rather than prematurely labeling this news as positive.The overnight drop was brutal, $BTC plunged to 73,708, a new low since August, with 855 million in liquidations, long positions bore 90.2% of the losses. But the funding rate stubbornly didn’t turn negative, and Binance’s long-short ratio actually rose to 2.16; what was taken away was leverage, not positions.
$ETH was even worse, with 456 million liquidated, more than Bitcoin, so weak it didn’t even bother to struggle.
A-shares turnover was 1.48 trillion, shrinking by 175.2 billion. The surge in coal and robotics stocks looked lively, but over 3,100 stocks were falling, volume was retreating, and the faster rotation felt more like exhaustion.
The US market saw the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jump 4.21%, AMD up 11%, but the Dow was in the red. The nonfarm payrolls beat expectations, which ironically pushed up the probability of rate hikes. The chip stocks’ own rebound couldn’t lift the whole market.
Solana’s Lujiazui advertisement was stopped by the central bank before it even got popular, and the involved parties are under investigation. The regulatory cracks have never loosened.$BTC standard accumulation manipulation method, starting from the afternoon retail investors' chips were thrown out and absorbed, if no one absorbs, it would be quickly smashed through directly instead of slowly grinding hour by hour #NebiusQ3AICloudGrowth
Nebius is highly likely to meet its Q3 revenue target
because its existing June momentum already guaranteed a strong baseline. The real metric to watch is their updated Annualized Revenue Run-Rate (ARR); any infrastructure or chip delays that threaten their aggressive $7.0B+ year-end goal pose the biggest risk to the stock.