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A little-noticed fact: Bitcoin mining difficulty has remained below the peak of 155.97T on October 29, 2025, for 374 consecutive days, setting a new historical record. This surpasses the 364 days after the 2011 crash and also exceeds the 253 days following China's mining ban in 2021.
Let's look at the data. In mid-June 2026, difficulty dropped to 124.93T, about 20% below the peak; it rebounded to 148.36T in October; Mempool.space expects another drop of about 3.7% around November 13.
The mechanism is not complicated. Difficulty follows hash rate: when prices are poor, miners shut down, hash rate exits, difficulty adjusts downward, and the remaining miners' unit costs are diluted. So the reason difficulty hasn't returned to the peak for a long time is essentially that this cycle lacks enough new hash power willing to enter at the old prices.
Economist Saifedean Ammous says this duration surpasses 95% of the price retracements after 2011 and the period of China's mining ban, representing a new world for Bitcoin mining. Translated into trading terms: the miner side has already cleared a round, and the marginal selling pressure of $BTC is smaller than in 2021.
But a drop in difficulty does not equal bullishness. It only indicates that the supply side is no longer worsening; the direction still depends on the demand side. Worth watching is: after the 3.7% drop on November 13, if the hash rate still doesn't return, then miners have truly accepted it.The stronger the non-farm payrolls, the more dangerous BTC becomes? What the market truly fears is a reversal in interest rate expectations
US October non-farm payrolls delivered better-than-expected results: 165,000 new jobs added, far above the expected 65,000; unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year. More notably, August and September employment data were revised upward by a total of 84,000.
This means the US labor market remains resilient, leaving room for the Federal Reserve to continue tightening policy. After the non-farm payroll release, market bets on a December rate hike rose to about 80%, the dollar strengthened, and US Treasury yields climbed.
For BTC and ETH, the pressure is not just from the data itself but from the market repricing: rate cut expectations pushed back, dollar liquidity tightening, and risk asset valuations under pressure. BTC briefly dipped to $74,800, and ETH weakened in tandem.
However, it is important to note that strong non-farm payrolls do not mean a rate hike is set in stone. Subsequent inflation data and Federal Reserve statements will still change expectations. In the short term, focus on the dollar, US Treasury yields, and BTC support around $74,000; do not rashly bottom-fish based solely on overselling before the trend stabilizes. $BTC #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 BTC is at 76000, ETH stuck at 2242, my view hasn't changed: no rush to enter the market.
Candlestick charts can depict a bottoming pattern, but funding rates reveal the true sentiment. A genuine reversal requires crowded shorts, deeply negative funding rates, panic sellers handing over chips, and a short squeeze with enough momentum. Currently, funding rates are mildly positive, neither bulls nor bears are cornered, no capitulation, no extreme panic, the market is just lukewarm.
This is not the bottom, just a breather in a prolonged downtrend.
Bottoms are always the result of chip battles, when bulls' stop losses are repeatedly harvested and bears' confidence swells and crowds together, funding rates turn deep red, and the fuel for a rebound is ready. Without enough sell-off to clear the market, even a pull-up is just a muted pulse.
The biggest taboo in bottom fishing is rushing in. Those who run fast mostly catch falling knives; those who stay patient have a chance to get chips with good cost-performance. I'd rather quietly observe from the sidelines than exhaust all my bullets in a downtrend.
The market won't reward those eager to bottom fish but will severely punish those heavily positioned halfway down the slope.
Wait for a clear signal from the funding rates before making a move; it's never too late.
No rush, keep waiting.
⚠️ Information shared is not investment advice
$BTC $ETH SNDK has been hammered for several days in a row, and it surprisingly didn't stop over the weekend, which is a bit heartbreaking to watch. With such a drop, is it just an emotional flood, or is someone quietly accumulating chips? What I'm focusing on is not the bearish candlestick itself, but the fact that the trading volume has shrunk to be as "small" as the price, showing a volume-price divergence at the low level. This pattern usually indicates that selling pressure is easing, fewer people are willing to sell, but the buying side hasn't rushed to show strength either, which is a typical late-stage emotional phase. The problem is, the continued hammering over the weekend is likely not spot market sentiment, but a liquidity test during the thinnest period, where sparse order books allow a few trades to push the price down ugly. What the market is actually trading now is not whether SNDK as a company is good or not, but "whether the most fragile positions can still hold." Once this expectation is priced in early, Monday's opening reaction will be more honest than the weekend's candlesticks. The bullish path is: volume continues to shrink, the low-level divergence holds, and after the passive selling pressure over the weekend is digested, the price has a chance to first recover above psychological levels, with sentiment warming up to help small-cap stocks in the same sector catch a breather. The bearish risk is also clear: if the weekend's sell-off is accompanied by volume expansion, it means it's not just a shakeout but real selling, then the low-level divergence is a false signal, and Monday may see a further drop, with risk appetite shrinking from individual tokens back to mainstream coins, delaying the overall rebound rhythm of altcoins. If BTC and ETH remain stable over the weekend, the sharp drop in single tokens like SNDK is more likely a localized event rather than a shift in overall risk appetite; conversely, if mainstream coins also weaken together, thenIf you want to bottom-fish $xKORU, Ajian's advice is to hold off for now. KOSPI closed down 6.02% on Friday despite a 20-minute trading halt, Samsung $SAMSUNG dropped 6.35%, Hynix $xSKHY fell 10.44%, and foreign investors sold off 2.8 trillion KRW in a single day. So the current situation is that no one can prove the bottom is in, and the premise of bottom-fishing is that the bottom has been reached. Even if you can't buy at the lowest point, at least don't catch a falling knife halfway up the slope 🤧$NET
Cloudflare's growth accelerates, but why is the gross margin more worth questioning?
Cloudflare's Q3 revenue grew 39% year-over-year, but GAAP gross margin dropped from 74.0% in the same period last year to 71.2%. There is simultaneous pressure from demand expansion and the cost of providing services.
AI-related traffic is increasing, and only when charging capability matches usage costs will economic value be enhanced. Revenue exceeding expectations does not necessarily bring an equivalent improvement in free cash flow.
I focus on unit computing cost, customer expansion, and cash flow rate. If growth is maintained and gross margin stabilizes, quality evaluation can be improved; if usage increases but gross margin declines, the market may continue to compress valuations for high-speed growth.Just caught a glimpse of the order book, and the BTC line suddenly went quiet, like someone turned down the volume knob 🌙 This kind of quietness—is it a breather or the end of the session? In the past 24 hours, net capital inflow was about 1308 BTC, a nearly 195% surge compared to the previous day and 256% higher than a week ago. The buying pressure is indeed returning, but what's more interesting is another set of numbers: liquidation amount around $41.64 million, 3152 liquidations, a sharp drop of 79% from the previous day and 56% less than seven days ago. Leverage is being rapidly squeezed out, and volatility is contracting accordingly. These two things happening simultaneously indicate the market is trading not "direction" but a "recalibration of risk budget." My own feeling is that this is more like a deep breath during a volatility phase. After high leverage was cleared earlier, short-term funds dare to test the waters again, but the approach is gentler. If this net inflow can hold for several consecutive days, BTC will first stabilize its range, and ETH along with some high-beta altcoins may then receive spillover from risk appetite; conversely, if the inflow is just a single-day pulse, the volatility contraction could easily turn into a false calm, and an external event could wash out fragile positions again. Notably, sentiment indicators have temporarily returned near neutral zero, meaning optimism is not fully priced in. This is both room for bullishness and a hidden risk—everyone is not yet excited, indicating limited willingness to chase highs, and a breakout will require new catalysts. - Bullish path: leverage clearing + continued capital inflow, volatility contracts then expands, leading mainstream coins to rally. - Risk point: net inflow unsustainable, any negative news under neutral sentiment will be amplified into a secondary sell-off.Yesterday, a fan asked me in the chat: "Fei Ge, with such strong non-farm payroll data, gold has plunged, but why hasn't Bitcoin dropped? Is the main force holding back some big move?"
Let me give you the truth. You think the main force has a conspiracy? Actually, the truth is harsh: the main force has long "packed up and left"!
Think back, starting Tuesday, US tech stocks crashed, ETFs saw outflows of over a billion dollars for seven consecutive days, and Bitcoin dropped from 80,000 to 75,000. At that time, the bulls had already been bloodied once. When the data finally came out, the bearish news was already an open secret. Now, what's left in the market are those trapped at the top pretending to be dead, and those below who dare not enter.
No new funds, no high leverage, who is the main force going to crush? Air?
So, don't always think the market is stagnant because the big players are scheming. The current market is like a stagnant pool; everyone is afraid to make the first move and get caught. No volatility is the biggest risk. Let's just grab a small stool and wait for it to choose a direction on its own. Don't scare yourself!
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $BTC $ETH #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温
Economic data is so good, why isn't crypto rising?
165,000 vs expected 65,000, when the nonfarm payrolls came out, many were stunned: employment is so strong, yet BTC only moved +0.17% that day.
In plain terms: nonfarm payrolls show how many jobs the US added in a month. Easy to find jobs → economy heats up → inflation doesn't easily go down → Fed has no reason to rush rate cuts → money isn't cheap → risk assets lose that "water".
So this kind of data can't be summarized as simply "bullish/bearish," it changes the market's expectation of "will money get cheaper or not." Almost no movement is actually quite honest—big money is waiting for clearer signals, not betting on a single news piece.
Do you think there's still room for rate cuts in December? Let's discuss in the comments.
#非农 #宏观 #BTC #行情分析 Next Tuesday at 9:30 PM, the US October CPI will be released. This might be the last inflation report before the Fed's December meeting. Mi Ge thinks this is the real test for next week.
Let's look at the numbers first: the market expects October CPI to rise 0.3% month-over-month, with the core up 0.2%. September's figures were 0.6% month-over-month and 0.3% core, both 0.1 points higher than expected. Bitcoin dropped 1.5% in one minute at that time. There's something special this time: last October, the government shutdown meant the statistics bureau couldn't collect prices, so the official report won't publish year-over-year data, only month-over-month.
Why focus on this? On Friday, nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, far exceeding the expected 65,000. The market has already priced in about a 75% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike on December 9. If CPI exceeds expectations again, the rate hike is even more certain; if the core can be held to 0.2% or even lower, December will still be uncertain.
Mi Ge's view is simple: don't rush to place heavy bets before the CPI release. Once the data is out, first look at the core line. Although 0.2% and 0.3% differ by only 0.1 points, the market reaction could be completely opposite. The volatility in the minutes after the release will be large, so remember to set stop losses on contracts.
What do you think? Will the core CPI be 0.2% or 0.3% this time? $BTC Employment increased by 165,000, but the crypto market dropped first
The US added 165,000 jobs in October, while the market had only expected 65,000.
What is this price level: $BTC fell from 75,500 to 74,762, the lowest in seven weeks.
Many people's first reaction is that the data is too strong, so it dropped.
How is this number calculated: expected 65,000, actual 165,000, 100,000 more jobs than expected.
Good employment means one less reason for rate cuts.
Looking at it from another angle, if high interest rates persist for a while, borrowing costs won't come down.
The market has already priced out the rate cut portion in advance.
Looking further ahead, the real pressure is not on the day of the data, but on every week the rate cut is delayed.
$BTC is very likely to continue consolidating in this range for a while.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温
#$BTC Samsung Wallet has launched USDC: About 82 million eligible Galaxy phones in the U.S. can buy, store, and transfer stablecoins without downloading any crypto apps or managing private keys.
I checked the details: The underlying USDC is on Solana, custody is by Bastion, with Coinbase as sub-custodian; transfers within the wallet are free of charge by Samsung, but credit card top-ups incur a 4% fee, and users in New York State cannot use this feature. (Sources: Decrypt, Stripe announcement)
My view: The 82 million figure refers to "eligible devices," not users, so don’t mistake it for 82 million new holders. Its significance lies not in the number but in the entry point: many people’s first encounter with stablecoins might be through the phone’s built-in wallet, without even realizing they are using "cryptocurrency."
The 4% card fee also indicates that this business currently profits from entry points and fees. Ordinary users should note: check fees before topping up, and use bank transfers instead of credit cards when possible #美元稳定币或加速出海 $USDC European Central Bank issues inflation warning! Energy prices refuse to cool down, global interest rate cut expectations face new tests?
On November 7, ECB Executive Board member Hernández de Cos issued a reminder about the current global inflation situation: monetary policymakers cannot underestimate the inflation risks brought by rising energy prices, especially as the Iran war lasts longer than expected and energy prices have yet to show the market-anticipated decline.
He stated that although there is no obvious second-round inflation transmission effect yet, the previous market hope that the war would end quickly and energy prices would fall accordingly is no longer so optimistic. Therefore, the central bank still needs to remain highly vigilant about inflation.
What is even more noteworthy is that he also mentioned another hidden risk: public debt in some European countries is already at historic highs, yet fiscal deficits remain elevated.
What does this mean?
If energy prices remain high and inflation cannot be brought down, it will be difficult for central banks to cut interest rates easily. If borrowing costs continue to stay high or even rise further, those heavily indebted countries will face greater pressure just to service their interest payments.
There is a very important market transmission logic here:
Energy prices rise → Inflation pressure increases → Interest rate cut space limited → Financing costs remain high → Global risk assets under pressure.$ETH: Spot ETF (11.5) net outflow nearly 100 million, totaling 427.6 million over five days; Glamsterdam hard fork delayed.
Fidelity transferred 27,000 ETH (60.27 million) to Galaxy Digital. USDT holdings at annual low, leverage ratio increased but open positions decreased. Whales shifted from long to short 30,000 ETH (average price 2283-2430), shorting after earning 17.78 million.
$SOL: Central bank suspends SOL promotion in Shanghai and launches investigation. Pump.fun continues depositing coins to Kraken (total sales 893 million). Internal split: co-founder Toly criticizes foundation and memecoin, Labs promotes Leap causing ecological criticism.$AKE is really outrageous this round. The 24-hour volatility today is close to 189%, the difference between the highest and lowest is nearly threefold, and the turnover rate is 132%, completely showing funds repeatedly tugging inside.
This coin has previously experienced extreme short squeezes, rising nearly 6 times in 8 hours, doubling in 7 minutes, with short liquidations accounting for nearly 89% at one point, and arbitrage accounts losing over 5 million USDT in a single day. So it's not "low position means suitable for shorting," but rather "structurally dangerous, can be blown up at any time."
I’m shorting 3 times with a light position to test, holding for a day or two to see how it goes. If it drops, I’ll hold a bit; if it rebounds and breaks the position, I’ll exit immediately—no holding, no adding, no fighting. In a demon coin market, surviving is more important than guessing right.
Small position, with stop loss, not investment advice. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% #BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 A piece of news that doesn't quite sound like crypto news: Tether, the issuer of USDT, has gone to make eyes for robots.
On November 7, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said the company's VisionPsy model provides visual capabilities for G Bionics' robots, and it runs completely locally. QVAC posted a demo video, saying this robot ran at the Plan ₿ Forum in Lugano.
The key point to unpack is the word "locally." Currently, most machine vision sends images to the cloud for inference, facing three hurdles: latency, bandwidth, and privacy. Running locally means the model must be compressed small enough and the computing power packed into the machine itself—this is engineering hard work, not something you can gloss over by just releasing an API.
The second layer is the occasion. Plan ₿ Forum is a Bitcoin community event, yet Tether is showcasing a robot there. USDT has long been more than just an "on-chain dollar"; its issuer is moving itself toward AI infrastructure.
My judgment: this has no direct impact on the price of $USDT, the stablecoin remains pegged. But it changes the market's valuation imagination of Tether—from a company living off interest on U.S. Treasuries to one holding models and hardware partners.
A question to leave: when a stablecoin issuer starts selling AI capabilities, does its relationship with the $BTC ecosystem become closer or more distant?#伯克希尔巨额现金储备，财报将披露最新动向
Essentially, Buffett's team remains cautious about the current market valuation. This earnings report focuses on two key points: whether cash reserves will continue to rise, and whether Abel has made any large acquisitions. The massive ammunition held in reserve is not a bullish signal but rather a wait for market panic and discounted quality assets. It's worth referencing this big player's risk control approach!BTC and ETH spot ETFs experienced net outflows on the same day, with money flowing out
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $412 million yesterday, with IBIT having the largest outflow; Ethereum spot ETFs had a net outflow of $93.1887 million on the same day, led by ETHA. Both sides moving together suggests it’s not just a one-sided portfolio adjustment.
What holders need to watch is the sustainability, not just the single-day figures. ETF channel funds usually move slowly, but once the direction forms a chain, the market’s support strength will weaken.
Another signal comes from the mining side: Bitdeer maintains zero Bitcoin holdings and sold 258.6 BTC this week. When miners hold no inventory and ETF net outflows are considered together, supply-side actions are more worth monitoring than the price itself.Pause for a moment. Don't rush. This time, I'm more cautious about the rebound after chasing a position. ⚡Hyperliquid's public market data shows that $XMR currently has the highest absolute funding rate among contracts, at 0.0372% per hour, approximately 326% annualized, but the price dropped 0.88% in 24 hours.
My judgment: This seems more like a reminder that short-term rhythms can easily get twisted, not a direct bearish signal. A positive funding rate means longs pay shorts, so holding positions for a long time incurs costs; yet the price still falls, indicating that paying the fee didn't bring a simultaneous price increase. Conversely, a high funding rate doesn't mean shorts will definitely win, and the annualized figure shouldn't be taken as guaranteed profit.
My approach to entry and exit is to wait for price confirmation and not chase direction based on funding rates. If the price continues to weaken, I'll give up on trying to catch a rebound; if it suddenly pulls back, I won't stubbornly hold a short just because I receive funding. When encountering this combination of high positive funding rate but weak price, would you skip it directly or wait for a pullback to be supported?In 2025, losses caused by investment scams in the UK reached £221.5 million, highlighting a sharp rise that underscores social media platforms as a primary gateway for financial fraud. Scammers no longer need to hack bank accounts; a single Instagram ad or a seemingly credible WhatsApp message is enough to convince victims to transfer funds voluntarily. This shift marks a fundamental change in fraud tactics from technical attacks to psychological manipulation. New Fraud Scenarios Scammers exploit the trust and reach of social media to target retail investors, often baiting them with promises of high returns from cryptocurrencies, forex, or fake investment projects. Once contact is established, victims are guided through a series of seemingly legitimate steps—fake trading platforms, forged profit records, even small initial withdrawals—to build confidence before larger sums are transferred. This "authorized push payment" model makes it technically harder for banks and regulators to intervene. Fraud data from the UK reflects broader trends in Europe and North America, where investment scams have surpassed card fraud to become the category with the highest financial losses in consumer financial crime. Cryptocurrency-related scams are a significant component, with scammers leveraging the anonymity and cross-border nature of digital assets to obscure fund flows. Industry and Regulatory Impact The surge in social media-driven scams poses direct challenges to platforms and financial regulators. Social media companies face increasing pressure to verify advertiser identities and proactively remove fraudulent content; regulators are also urged to extend responsibility beyond banks to the platforms publishing the ads A trader once proudly shared a screenshot of a 30x leverage position as a badge of honor, but now he doesn't even dare to show his account—he's stuck in a $BTC buy order around 75,800, buying more as the price falls, to the point of forgetting why he entered the market in the first place. This is not a joke, but the most real snapshot of the current market: retail investors' "faith" is turning into the liquidity on the opposite side of the trade. Interestingly, at the same time, the macro narrative is pushing in the opposite direction. The US October nonfarm payroll data exceeded expectations, intensifying market bets on a rate hike in December—this means tightening expectations on the dollar side are resurfacing, putting pressure on risk asset valuations from the denominator side. $BTC falling in this environment is no coincidence; it reflects capital repricing the possibility of "higher rates for longer." Retail sees it as a "discount," while institutions see a "change in discount rate." This is where the crowd is most prone to misjudgment. Bottom-fishers treat price drops as opportunities but overlook that the driver of the decline has shifted from sentiment to macro structure. The reason 75,800 is a "stuck" point is precisely because it is an emotional anchor, not a value anchor—when the buying rationale is "it has fallen badly" rather than "it is undervalued," the position becomes a psychological burden rather than a trading decision. A deeper second-order effect is that when leveraged retail investors are trapped and the culture of sharing screenshots fades, the market's marginal buying power will shift from "impulsive funds chasing rallies" to "patient funds waiting for confirmation." This transition period is often accompanied by shrinking volume and weak rebounds, making $BTC's price discovery more dependent on macro data rather than on-chain narratives. $ETH and $SOL, these kinds of high$AXON
Software is growing rapidly, so why does Axon still focus solely on procurement delays?
Axon's software and services revenue in Q3 increased by 43% year-over-year, but the latest full-year guidance excludes approximately $130 million in federal Dedrone deployment revenue. There is a mismatch between long-term demand and short-term procurement realization.
Recurring software can improve revenue stability, while hardware and government deployments are still affected by budget, acceptance, and procurement processes. One high-growth segment cannot offset the risk of delays in another.
If subsequent deployments are re-implemented and payments stabilize, the short-term gap can be repaired; if order delays persist repeatedly, the backlog scale cannot be directly regarded as near-term profit and revenue visibility needs to be downgraded.Industry Chain and Market Impact
US Cloud Vendors and AI Hardware: Approval delays and soaring grid connection costs may postpone some local data center deliveries; the proportion of non-chip CapEx spent on grid access and compliance increases, effectively diluting the budget flexibility for GPU procurement
Traditional Utilities: Facing stringent pricing scrutiny, it is difficult to cover large customer infrastructure costs by raising prices for residents
Self-Generated Power and Off-Grid Generation: Tech giants will accelerate bypassing the public grid, directly signing power purchase agreements (PPA) with nuclear power (SMR), natural gas, and large-scale integrated solar-storage projects
Compute Power Offshore and Technology Shift: Domestic restrictions will push some training compute power to overflow to the Middle East, Northern Europe, and Southeast Asia; simultaneously, this forces large model vendors to shift from "purely stacking GPUs" to algorithm efficiency optimization, edge inference, and low-power chips
In the short term, the implementation cycle of related legislation is long, mostly reflecting valuation disturbances caused by policy uncertainty
In the medium to long term, "power and compliance access" has replaced "GPU capacity" as the primary hard constraint limiting AI expansion
Going forward, the core issue is no longer the total CapEx of tech giants, but what proportion can truly be converted into powered-on, operational compute
#AI巨头融资观察：OpenAI完成110亿美元融资，科技企业发债潮持续 $OPENAI No shortage of chips, but a shortage of power! The U.S. tightens data center approvals, will the AI industry chain face a new round of reshuffling?
The U.S. plans to tighten data center regulations, essentially a backlash against the disorderly expansion of AI computing power clashing with U.S. energy bottlenecks and grassroots livelihood interests.
Three main regulatory measures:
1. Limit new capacity: Propose suspending construction or raising environmental review thresholds for hyperscale computing centers. Due to resident protests over noise and water/electricity consumption, places like Virginia and Pennsylvania have begun to shelve controversial projects in batches.
2. Reshape power grid cost allocation: Require hyperscale power users to fully bear the costs of dedicated grid connections and grid expansion, ending the previous model where ordinary residents' electricity bills subsidized infrastructure costs.
3. Cancel tax incentives: Explore reducing property and equipment tax exemptions for data centers and taxing high-energy-consuming computing power, directly squeezing the capital expenditure returns of tech giants.
Underlying conflicts erupt:
AI iteration far outpaces the upgrade speed of the aging U.S. power grid; transformer shortages and grid connection queues delay infrastructure, while data centers' power grabs cause residents' electricity bills to rise and increase power rationing risks. This has evolved into a direct political issue affecting votes, forcing regulators to shift from unconditionally encouraging AI to balancing the power grid and public livelihood.
$SNDK #Anthropic仍计划11月IPO，投资者下调估值预期 There's something I've never quite understood: when someone is publicly called out once, why does it seem to work even better this round?
ZachXBT said Ansem promotes small-cap tokens and celebrity tokens, and gamblers have given him credibility again this cycle, essentially lining up to exit liquidity themselves. The criticism hasn't devalued him; instead, it has become part of his resume.
The issue lies in the attention itself. There's not much to analyze about small-cap coins; what matters is who's shouting. The more controversial the shouter, the more people think "this time it's different." But the market cap remains the same, and the money coming in has to be taken by someone.
So every time I see someone shouting about a new coin, I only ask one question: who's selling on the other side? Current price: approximately $75,900—76,100 (slight variations across exchanges), roughly RMB 506,000 24H range: 74,877 — 76,374 Distance from all-time high: about -39.9% (ATH 126,080, 2025-10-06) Phase decline: about -8.8% in the past month, about -28.9% in the past 3 months, about -13.5% year-to-date Market sentiment: panic zone (fear index around 25) Volume: significantly shrunk, down about 35%—37% compared to the previous day, below the median of the past 30 days Key moves in the last three days: - 11/4: +3.94% rebound to 80,504. - 11/5: Nasdaq plunged 5.52%, Bitcoin dropped synchronously by 5.49%; US spot Bitcoin ETF net outflow of $430 million in one day (previous day was a net inflow of $74.6 million), long liquidations about $880 million. - 11/6: US added 165,000 nonfarm jobs in October (expected only 65,000), US Treasury yields rose, December rate hike expectations intensified. Bitcoin briefly fell below 75,000 to a low of 74,888, then rebounded to close near 75,844, slightly down 0.32% — US stocks rebounded, but crypto did not follow. II. Technicals: Neither bulls nor bears won - Support: 75,633 (daily IchimZachXBT recently said something worth reading three times for those still chasing celebrity coins: He once publicly named Ansem for promoting small-cap tokens and celebrity tokens, but gamblers in this cycle have given Ansem credibility again and provided exit liquidity.
The most painful part is not "promotion," but "again."
When someone is publicly named once, logically their credibility should be discounted. But in reality, his influence hasn't dropped; instead, the controversy has made him more visible. This is the strangest aspect of celebrity coins in this cycle: negative exposure is not a detriment but a source of traffic.
The mechanism is simple. Small-cap tokens have no fundamentals; their price is driven by attention, which is highly concentrated on a few people who shout out. This creates a closed loop—shouting signals, retail investors enter and push prices up, early holders sell at the high, and the buyers become the "exit liquidity." This term is not emotional expression; it precisely describes the flow of funds: your purchase is someone else's sale.
So the real question is not "Is this KOL reliable?" but "Who holds the chips?" If the answer is him and a small group of early addresses, no matter how sincere his calls are, your position is the exit.
Don't expect safety by switching KOLs; the same structure works with different people. Varieties like $BTC still have holders, not because they have risen much, but because the opposing positions are sufficiently dispersed, and no one can decide your exit price with a single tweet.
Knowing they've been named, why do people still give credibility? Probably because they all think they can leave before the music stops. $BTC climbed back above 76,000 on Saturday, but ETFs have already withdrawn 1.28 billion in November, with BlackRock pulling out 403 million in just one day on Friday. This rebound is driven by short-covering, not institutional returns.
$ETH wavered around 2,248, with the shadow of the Glamsterdam upgrade delay still lingering. However, a giant whale quietly scooped up 8,775 coins on-chain at a cost of 2,245, picking up bloodied chips.
$ZEC's NU7 upgrade has truly landed, cutting block time to 25 seconds. On Friday, it briefly squeezed shorts to 1,387, but today it slid back to 1,267. The positive news has been fully priced in, leaving those chasing highs stranded at the peak.
On the A-share market, a hundred stocks hit their daily limit, but the spotlight was on baijiu (white liquor). Huangtai Liquor hit a two-day limit up, followed by Shuijingfang and Jinzhongzi Liquor sealing their limits. AI animation stocks Jiecheng and Guomai surged 20CM, Wentou Holdings hit the daily limit, and broad-based ETFs saw a massive inflow of 129.5 billion, with money flowing back through major channels.
ST Doushen surged 65% in a week, Zhejiang Film Industry hit a five-day limit up, photovoltaic stocks Ainengju and Yongzhen remain on the list, but banks and coal stocks fell against the trend, with funds both fighting and hiding.
In the US market, the Nasdaq rose 1.09%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index soared 4.21%, AMD gained 11%, Intel rose 7.7%, TSMC climbed 6.2%, with chip stocks rushing to recover. However, the Dow was pressed down by the non-farm payrolls, falling 0.46%, showing a clear split.
On one side, ETFs are withdrawing; on the other, chip stocks are rebounding from oversold. Meanwhile, A-shares rotate mysteriously on their own. Ultimately, the market itself is too lazy to answer which side the money trusts.Hold on to two data points tightly. First, the perpetual funding rate is still mildly positive, nowhere near the level of extreme short squeeze or deeply negative rates — the real bottom often comes when shorts are squeezed out and funding rates turn deeply negative, which is far from now. Second, the main liquidations these days are longs, not shorts, indicating the deleveraging meat grinder hasn't stopped yet. A low-volume rebound means anyone rushing in can easily get stuck halfway up the mouTRX, NEAR, and XTZ continue to increase issuance, causing token oversupply and continuous dilution of holding value, resulting in long-term pressure.
Celo, Ronin, and RVN have capped total supply, with incremental issuance gradually decreasing, and scarcity accumulating over time, supporting long-term value.
TRX relies on the TRON ecosystem but token release is nonstop; NEAR continuously produces blocks and issues more tokens; XTZ adds tokens through staking rewards; Celo focuses on mobile stablecoin payments; Ronin specializes in blockchain gaming scenarios; RVN is a PoW asset issuance public chain with no inflation backdoors.
Short-term market trends are driven by capital sentiment, but over a longer cycle, supply rules are the true dividing line of value. #Elon Musk expects SpaceX's annualized revenue to exceed $100 billion by the end of the year Elon Musk stated at an investment conference that Q4 revenue is expected to increase about 70% quarter-on-quarter, with annualized revenue reaching over $100 billion by year-end. Meanwhile, government revenue proportion is rapidly falling below 10%, with the core growth engine officially shifting to Starlink communications and AI computing power business. This expectation also drove a single-day rebound in the stock price.
Structurally, Starlink is currently a stable cash cow, continuously contributing profits through global individual, airline, and enterprise subscriptions; the high growth highlight comes from the AI computing power business, with major clients like Anthropic driving explosive computing power revenue, already surpassing traditional rocket launch business. This change perfectly offsets market concerns: after the Democrats took control of Congress, the market has worried about government contracts for Musk's companies being reviewed or reduced. The continuous decline in government order proportion reduces policy risk exposure.
However, it should be clear that this is Musk's scenario forecast, not a performance commitment. To achieve the goal, on one hand, AI computing power contracts must continue to be secured without losing major clients; on the other hand, Starlink's expansion is still suppressing revenue per user, requiring user scale to compensate for the decline in average revenue per user. At the same time, Starship R&D and computing infrastructure capital expenditures are huge, so high revenue growth does not necessarily mean profit improvement.
From the market perspective, this optimistic guidance repairs valuation cuts caused by earlier regulatory panic, but Wall Street institutions generally predict figures far below Musk's targets, showing significant divergence. Follow-up focus will be on actual Q4 revenue, AI client renewals, and Starlink new user data. $BTC $SPCX Important signals have appeared in the AI industry chain: memory orders are locked in until 2030, and demand for energy equipment remains strong!
Recently, the market has been discussing a question: how much of the crazy investment in AI infrastructure is genuine demand, and how much is just storytelling by the capital market?
On November 7, the latest earnings call information from two companies provided an answer worth noting.
First, let's look at Micron.
Sumit Sadana, Executive Vice President and Chief Business Officer of Micron, stated that in the past, traditional long-term supply agreements (LTA) usually lasted only 12 months and lacked real binding force. But now the situation is completely different.
With AI's growing demand for key chips such as high-bandwidth memory, Micron is signing new Strategic Customer Agreements (SCA) with strategic customers. These agreements typically last up to 5 years, with some orders covering until 2030, and adopt a binding "take-or-pay" model.
Simply put, previously customers could flexibly adjust orders based on market conditions; now, with the new agreements signed, they cannot buy or cancel at will. Even if they do not take delivery, they must fulfill payment obligations according to the contract.
Next, let's look at GE Vernova.
Previously, the market was worried that the large power equipment needed for AI data center construction, such as turbine orders, might be canceled or delayed due to customers' financing difficulties.🚨Weekend stock tokens are moving, but are they showing real value or just predicting Monday?
With US markets closed, tokens like $SPCX and $SNDK rely on oracle prices and platform order books rather than actual stock trading. Weekend gains can be misleading, especially when real stock redemption is limited to whitelisted institutions.
Remember: Monday’s opening bell can change everything. Don’t mistake weekend price swings for confirmed momentum.
#DailyOrbit $BTC is barely holding above 76,000, but the November ETF has already withdrawn nearly 1.28 billion, with BlackRock pulling out 403 million in just one day on Friday. Fidelity's inflows are negligible; this sideways movement is a breather after leveraged liquidation, not a return of institutions.
$ETH wobbled to 2,248 but couldn't lift its head. The ETF saw net outflows for two consecutive days, with BlackRock's ETHA losing 90.76 million in a single day. The market doesn't even bother to resist.
$ZEC's NU7 upgrade story is over; block time cut to 25 seconds. It surged to 1,330 on Wednesday but dropped to a low of 1,229 today, down nearly 5% in 24 hours. The solo rally is officially over, and those chasing highs are left stranded at the peak.
Today in the A-shares market, the "Yang" stocks retreated, while the "Oriental" group surged en masse. A hidden line-up includes Sunrise Oriental and Oriental Ocean. Photovoltaic Minfa Aluminum hit five consecutive limit-ups, Yongzhen four, continuing to hold strong. AI short drama Zhejiang Film and Television hit five consecutive limit-ups. Agriculture quietly took over due to El Niño expectations.
The US stock market saw the Nasdaq rise 1.09%, Philadelphia Semiconductor soared 4.2%, AMD up over 11%, TSMC and Intel up over 6%. Chips and optical communications are scrambling to recover, but the Dow was pressed down by non-farm payrolls, falling 0.46%. The Nasdaq's weekly decline has extended to four consecutive weeks, clearly showing a split.
On one side, ETFs are withdrawing; on the other, chip oversold rebounds and A-share mystical rotations are each doing their own thing. The market itself is too lazy to answer which side the money truly trusts. Can Bitcoin solve the problem of America's spiraling debt?
In 1981, the total US national debt was only 1 trillion dollars.
This year, just the interest payments amount to 1 trillion, more than the military budget.
Total debt exceeds 40 trillion, a 40-fold increase in 45 years.
Raising taxes would collapse the economy. Cutting spending would topple politicians.
No matter how you calculate it, it can't be repaid.
So this Tuesday, a Wall Street fund manager Andrew Horns brought up an idea he's been discussing for nearly two years in an interview:
The Treasury should build a Bitcoin reserve, buying a few dollars of Bitcoin for every 100 dollars borrowed. When the debt matures in 20 years, the gains from Bitcoin would be used directly to repay it.
The principle is simple: the government borrows at an interest rate of 4% to 5% per year; as long as Bitcoin's long-term growth outpaces this interest, Bitcoin effectively repays the national debt.
He also admits: it can't save the US, only offset part of the debt, and the premise is not selling for 20 years—if Bitcoin is dumped mid-way, the whole plan collapses.
Then comes the most ironic timeline: the day this interview aired was exactly the US midterm election voting day.
The next day’s count: Democrats took both houses of Congress, Trump lost Congress. The financial regulatory chair fell into the hands of Warren, the person the crypto community least wants to see.
The bill to regulate crypto was just blocked in the Senate in September, now basically dead; Trump's family's crypto business is likely to be investigated by Congress over the next two years.
So, this kind of Bitcoin-backed national debt basically won't be issued within two years.
But two other paths are still alive:#After the US stock market crash, tech stocks rebound, but the Nasdaq weekly chart still falls about 3.4% **My judgment: This looks more like a post-crash recovery, not enough to confirm that tech stocks have bottomed out.**
- **The rebound is real, but the weekly chart remains weak.** On November 6, the Nasdaq rose about **1.1%**, but fell about **3.4%** for the whole week, marking the fourth consecutive week of decline. A one-day recovery is not enough to reverse the previous downtrend.
- **Pressure has not been fully relieved.** The market is still reassessing AI investment returns and regulatory risks; strong non-farm payrolls have increased concerns about rate hikes. Tech stock earnings growth and valuation pressure can occur simultaneously.
- **Next, watch if the rebound can hold.** I will observe whether the following trading days hold the Friday low, whether the rise can spread to more stocks, and whether US Treasury yields stabilize. These are more valuable indicators than a single-day gain.
**Now is not the time to heavily buy the dip just because of "big drops." Tech leaders with existing profits and cash flow support deserve priority observation, while AI concept stocks relying on financing expansion still require caution.**Last night when the non-farm payroll data came out, I stared at the screen in shock for a few seconds!
165,000, while the expectation was only 65,000, that's more than double~
The unemployment rate also dropped to 4.1%...
Honestly, this data is ridiculously strong. I was originally hoping for a rate cut in December, but now it looks like the probability has jumped from 67% to 80%.
We can't hold any illusions about a rate cut anymore.
Simply put, money is going to get more expensive again.
As the dollar strengthens, risk assets are the first to get hit. $XAUT gold already started to dive last night. $BTC and $ETH didn't crash along with it,
but don't think they can stay unscathed, because the total funds in the market are limited, and with rate hike expectations weighing down, institutions dare not rush in aggressively!
As for altcoins, don't even mention it; once liquidity tightens, there's no escaping.
I casually reduced some of my altcoin positions yesterday. Surviving during this macro shift is more important than anything else~
Of course, on the flip side, there could still be opportunities. If the December rate meeting turns out to be all bad news priced in, or if next week's CPI unexpectedly cools down, this wave of expectations could be overturned at any time. Then those who missed out will be another group. So I didn't clear my positions, just lowered my leverage 🥳
What about your current positions? Share in the comments, I'd like to see what everyone thinks 😃#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 **My judgment: This nonfarm payroll report strengthens the case for a December rate hike, but it is not yet enough to conclude that the hike is a done deal.**
- **The data is indeed strong:** October added **165,000** jobs, exceeding the market expectation of about 60,000–70,000; the unemployment rate was **4.1%**, and average hourly earnings rose **0.4%** month-over-month. Employment resilience gives the Fed more room to focus on inflation.
- **There are also reasons to be cautious:** Year-over-year hourly earnings grew only **3.1%**, and the number of people forced to work part-time for economic reasons increased by 339,000. The entire report should not be interpreted as a sign of broad overheating.
- **Regarding the market, I tend to be short-term bearish on overvalued assets.** If inflation remains elevated, rate hike expectations may further push up yields, putting pressure on tech stocks and gold; if inflation cools, this stronger-than-expected employment can be understood as economic resilience.
**What matters more than continuing to hype the nonfarm report next are CPI, core PCE, and November employment data. "加息押注升温" is market pricing, not a Fed commitment.**#BTC spot ETF has seen a cumulative net outflow of about $416 million this year
I am Mid-term Intelligence Bro, breaking down this set of ETF data:
A cumulative net outflow of about $416 million this year indicates that the "safety cushion" for compliant institutional channels in 2026 has basically been exhausted.
But don't just look at the clear numbers: the single-day outflows are highly concentrated in a few products like IBIT, accompanied by a Nasdaq plunge, AI regulatory concerns, and midterm election risk aversion. This is an "event-driven position reduction," not a market-wide panic sell-off.
$BTC price fell below 76,000 but did not crash, indicating spot support is still holding.
Currently: short-term liquidity is tight, sentiment is fearful; if IBIT outflows narrow and the coin price stabilizes, it is a shakeout.
$ETH
$ZEC $CORE November 7: The hard fork recovered 68.15 million tokens, but not a single affected user has received any of them.
b14g was stolen 97.05 million CORE tokens. The hard fork performed a one-time state adjustment, recovering 68,146,177 tokens from addresses controlled by the attacker, accounting for 70.2% of the stolen total. This is verifiable on-chain, data is clean, and the official statement emphasized "no rollback of historical transactions, no token minting, no change to total supply."
Technically, this was a textbook recovery.
But today is already November 7. The recovered 68.15 million tokens are still held in the recovery address. The allocation details have not been released, the official claim channel has not opened, and affected users have not received a single token.
Recovery does not equal return. The hard fork solved "where the tokens are," but not "who the tokens belong to."
The status of the remaining approximately 29 million tokens is even more telling: some were cross-chain swapped and left the Core network before the hard fork execution, thus outside the scope of the hard fork's intervention; the project team has offered a bounty to encourage white-hat returns, but whether funds can be recovered after the deadline is uncertain. A community summary bluntly states: "Don't assume that recovering most tokens means losses are controllable."
And the underlying on-chain economy has not changed at all today because of "recovering 70%."
An analysis on OKX on November 6 separated a set of previously mixed data:
Core chain native DeFi TVL is $3.82 million, on-chain DEX daily volume is $900. The BTC staking assets supporting the BTCFi narrative are locked on the Bitcoin mainnet via CLTV timelocks and have not entered Core chain DeFi contracts.
Two systems. One supports the narrative, the other is the real economy. The real economy is already in shock.
On-chain fee income hovers in the single to double-digit dollar range. To date, no on-chain CORE transfer can be marked as "executed using ecosystem revenue" for buyback narratives. The 68.15 million recovered tokens lie dormant in the recovery address, and on-chain income remains in single digits—both represent the same stagnation.
Validator numbers still lack a unified standard today.
Design calls for 31 seats, elected daily weighted by BTC hashrate, custodied BTC staking, and CORE staking. But the community's latest tracking sees 13, while the Satoshi Plus consensus halt threshold is 15. Regardless of the exact number, the direction is consistent: the buffer zone is in single digits.
The designed 31 seats and the actual number of independent validators running are two different things. Seats can remain vacant.
Bithumb's November 30 date remains a fixed point unaffected by the hard fork.
The delisting reason states "unresolved trading warning issues," not liquidity problems. Withdrawal channels close on December 30. Of 34 exchanges, 21 have delisted. This is a calendar constraint, independent of price charts or how many tokens were recovered.
So what truly matters today is not the price.
The hard fork recovery of tokens is technically a success. But it created a harder-to-fix issue narratively: a public chain with "immutability" as its foundational promise chose a one-time on-chain state modification to recover stolen assets. The official emphasized "no rollback of historical transactions," but the gap between "modifying address balances" and "rollback" is much shorter in terms of trust than technology.
The recovered 68.15 million tokens have not returned to anyone's hands, and the fact that "the ledger can be rewritten" has returned to every holder's valuation.
The price near $0.01 does not answer "where the bottom is." It only records one state: the on-chain real economy is in shock, recovered assets are dormant, validators are shrinking, and exchange lights are turning off one by one. And the recovered 68.15 million lie quietly in an address without allocation rules, waiting for a plan that has yet to be written.
$CORE #伯克希尔巨额现金储备，财报将披露最新动向 **My view: Berkshire's focus is on how cash generates returns; a huge cash reserve itself cannot be directly interpreted as "anticipating a drop in the US stock market."**
The Q3 earnings report is expected to be released **tonight (November 7) at 21:00 Beijing time** and should still be viewed as a forward-looking earnings preview.
- **Look at the reasons for cash changes.** As of the end of June, the insurance and other businesses held about **$359.2 billion** in cash, cash equivalents, and US short-term Treasury bonds, net of unsettled purchase payments. A decline in cash may come from investments, acquisitions, or buybacks and should not be directly taken as operational deterioration.
- **See if buybacks continue.** About **$4.8 billion** was repurchased in the first half of the year, mainly in Q2. I am more focused on whether buybacks continue in Q3 and whether the purchase prices are reasonable; a larger buyback amount is not necessarily better.
- **Look at operating profit, and be less swayed by net profit on the books.** The performance of insurance underwriting, railroads, and energy businesses better reflects operational quality, while stock price fluctuations can significantly affect net profit. Another variable is interest rates: if short-term debt yields decline, interest income from the large cash pool will also be under pressure.
**I lean towards its defensive capability, but to form a more positive judgment, we need to see operational growth and reasonable capital allocation; "just having a lot of cash" is not enough to support chasing higher prices.**$IREN
AI cloud revenue nearly triples, so why is IREN still looking at delays?
IREN's latest quarterly AI cloud revenue increased 182% quarter-over-quarter to $200 million, but the company has adjusted the timeline for reaching the $4 billion annualized revenue target to January 2027, possibly delayed until February.
The annualized target is not the revenue for the current quarter, and signing contracts does not equal equipment acceptance. Construction progress determines when revenue recognition begins, while capital expenditures may occur first.
I am focusing on delivery milestones, customer prepayments, and financing implementation. If the new schedule is met on time, there is a foundation for revenue growth; if delays expand or funding gaps increase, expectations for rapid conversion of contract scale into free cash flow should be lowered.The $416 million net outflow of BTC ETFs is not a retreat, but a "net illusion"
Conclusion first: The $416 million net outflow this year is the residual after nearly complete offset between $25.63 billion inflow and $26.05 billion outflow, not a signal of one-way collapse. Reading it as "institutions fled" would misinterpret the structure.
Breaking it down, the main sellers are multi-strategy funds doing basis arbitrage, not directional shorts. Galaxy data shows that 9 institutions including Millennium, Goldman Sachs, and D.E. Shaw collectively reduced about 68,000 BTC, due to futures basis narrowing to only 0.6% above short-term debt, causing mechanical liquidation after arbitrage space disappeared. Meanwhile, total 13F institutional exposure dropped from 355,000 BTC to 307,000 BTC, a 14% decrease, while BTC price fell 53% in the same period — the position reduction is much smaller than the price drop. Bitwise also clearly states: most institutions retained their original positions.
Therefore, the correct interpretation of the $416 million is: ETFs are "beta tools with anytime reducible positions," and the outflow reflects macro risk budget contraction transmission, not an independent bearish vote. What really matters is not the net direction but whether the flow rate is drying up.
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 $BTC climbed to 76,000 and took a breather, but ETFs have already lost 1.28 billion in November, with BlackRock pulling out 403 million in just one day on Friday. This rebound is driven by short covering, not institutional returns.
$ETH wavered at 2,248 and couldn't gain momentum, with ETFs bleeding 270 million over the week. Below 2200, there's still a pile of liquidations buried, and the market doesn't even bother to resist.
The $ZEC NU7 upgrade story is over; block time cut to 25 seconds. It surged to 1,375 on Friday but slid back to 1,229 today along with the broader market. The solo rally has paused.
Meme coins don't care about macro trends at all. RELAY surged 9544% in one day, RM rose 1840%, and GM multiplied seven to eight times. All the speculative money is crowded into small caps.
In the A-share market, the "Yang" faction has retreated, and the "Oriental" group is stepping up in batches. A dark line stretches from Sunrise Oriental to Oriental Ocean. Photovoltaic Minfa Aluminum hit five consecutive limit-ups, Yongzhen four, continuing to hold strong. AI short drama Zhejiang Film and Television hit five limit-ups. Agriculture is quietly taking over due to El Niño expectations.
The US stock market saw the Nasdaq rise 1.09%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index soared 4.21%, AMD up 11%, Coherent up 13.58%. Chip and optical communication stocks are scrambling to recover, but the Dow was pressed down by the non-farm payrolls, falling 0.46%, showing a clear split.
Money is hiding from ETF outflows on one side while diving into speculative coins and oversold chips on the other, but no heavy bets are being placed anywhere. Two things this week are more worth watching than the coin price.
1. Exchanges hit hard twice. On November 6, the U.S. Treasury cut MEXC off from the U.S. financial system, accusing it of involvement in about $16 billion in illegal transactions related to Iran, Russia, and North Korea (WSJ). On the same day, the Thai SEC filed criminal charges against Bitget and cut off local access starting December 5 (CoinDesk); after Binance's $6.3 billion hack, insurers have begun stricter scrutiny (Reuters).
2. The coin price barely dropped, but leverage changed hands. $BTC current price 75,925, 24h -0.2%, yesterday's low 74,800, a seven-week low; perpetual 24h volume $4.81 billion, 11.9 times the spot volume of $405 million. Open interest on the crash day November 5 dropped from $3.835 billion to $3.608 billion, then rose back to $3.87 billion yesterday, 0.9% higher than before the crash; funding rate dropped from +0.0064% to basically zero. On the same day, U.S. spot BTC and ETH ETFs saw net outflows of $530 million.
Conclusion: What decides the wallet is no longer price moves, but where the leverage is and who holds the money.
My three points: ① Large positions split, exchanges only keep 1-2 weeks' worth of volume needed; ② Withdraw small amounts first, wait for 24h confirmation before withdrawing the rest; ③ Keep large amounts in self-custody, don't wait for trouble to think about withdrawing.
Is your crypto on an exchange or in a wallet? If all in one place, what proportion? $BTCNon-farm payrolls showed strong data, but the market first pushed back rate cut expectations
The U.S. added 165,000 non-farm jobs in October, exceeding market expectations by about 65,000, and the unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%. After the data release, the dollar index rose about 0.7% at one point, and the implied market bet on a December rate hike increased from 70% to 78%. Strong employment indicates economic resilience, but for high-valuation assets, it also means interest rates may stay elevated longer.
The pressure on the crypto market is not only from contract liquidations. The U.S. spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $430.2 million on November 5, narrowing to about $51.7 million outflow on November 6. The selling pressure has clearly eased but has not yet turned into net inflows. $BTC has returned near $76,000; what really needs to be verified is whether spot buying has returned.
I do not simply interpret a strong non-farm report as bearish, nor do I take the narrowing ETF outflow as a bottom-fishing signal. If yields continue to rise and ETFs still see net outflows, the rebound is likely to lack follow-through; if capital flow stops bleeding first, then the market has a foundation for recovery.
What this data truly changes is the market’s imagination about the interest rate path. Will you focus first on the dollar and yields, or on ETF capital flows?
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% #BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 This is not a reversal, but a technical correction after an oversell. The root cause of the Nasdaq's four consecutive weekly declines is not the election, but the timing mismatch of AI capital expenditure "input—return" that has not yet been fully priced in.
On November 6, the Nasdaq rose 1.09%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 4.2%, and AMD rose over 11%. But looking at the week as a whole, the Nasdaq still fell 3.37%, marking its fourth consecutive weekly loss, and the S&P 500 recorded its worst single week in over a year. The previous day, the Nasdaq had just plunged 5.52%, its largest single-day drop since April 2025.
The trigger for the plunge was the Democrats taking control of both chambers after the midterm elections, raising market concerns about tighter approvals for AI data centers. But the underlying contradiction runs deeper: even after the pullback, Nvidia's market value still exceeds $4 trillion. "Strong future demand" and "how much equipment to buy now" are two different matters, and some semiconductor segments have already expanded in anticipation of long-term demand. The structure of the rebound also illustrates the issue: chips and computing hardware led the gains, while Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon are still falling — what is being corrected is the oversell, not the narrative. On the interest rate front, October's nonfarm payrolls at 165,000 far exceeded expectations, and the probability of a rate hike in December rose to 80%, so the pressure on valuation denominators has not eased. One day of gains cannot change a week's ledger.
#美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% I've been closely watching Big Brother Maji's recent moves, and this time it's the familiar script again: selling $BAYC at a loss to free up capital and going long on $ETH with 25x leverage, currently showing an unrealized loss of $32,000.
In my view, it's no longer just a simple bullish stance on $ETH. He has liquidated multiple times before and keeps cycling through this pattern: robbing Peter to pay Paul to recover losses, topping up margin, and continuing to bet heavily on the long side with high leverage. Essentially, he's trying to rely on a quick rebound to recoup losses from previous contracts and NFTs, gambling on a short-term pump rather than a long-term $ETH position. The 25x leverage leaves almost no room for error; a price drop of just under 4.4% triggers liquidation, concentrating the risk heavily.
The remaining BAYC he holds acts as a backup ammunition reserve for his contract account. If he can't hold on any longer, he will likely sell at a discount, continuously putting downward pressure on BAYC's floor price.
Such large, highly leveraged long positions represent a potential forced liquidation risk for the market. If $ETH continues to decline, his forced liquidation will further crash the market.
Of course, this is just the personal trading behavior of a whale and should not be taken as a bearish signal for $ETH. But for ordinary investors like us, this is a vivid lesson on the risks of high leverage.Reading two news items from the same day together reveals the underlying meaning: The U.S. Treasury sanctions 8 Canadian money service businesses, while the Rewards for Justice program offers up to $20 million for information on Iran's nuclear program. One blocks money, the other buys intelligence.
First, let's see who got sanctioned. Not exchanges, but money service companies that do currency exchange. They conduct business for sanctioned Iranian entities, facilitate the exchange of Iranian rials for digital assets, and help sanctioned Iranian digital asset exchanges and blockchain addresses linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps move funds.
This explains why sanctions target the currency exchange step. When the door to the dollar system closes, fiat can't go out, leaving blockchain as the only outlet. To get rials in and $USDT out on-chain, someone must provide redemption — these Canadian companies are that channel.
But once the channel is named, the chain is exposed. Addresses once flagged can be frozen at the issuer level for stablecoins like $USDT and $USDC; transfers are not beyond control. The sanction targets not a single transaction but the entire redemption channel's credibility.
Assessment: Such news usually has a short-term impact on $BTC prices. What really changes is the friction cost of gray-market exchange — fewer channels, higher premiums, smaller single transaction limits. No immediate reaction needed, but it reminds us of one thing: the stability of stablecoins comes half from reserves and half from their willingness to comply with regulations.
The reward mentioning "possible settlement arrangements" is also worth pondering: they want more than just intelligence.On the monitor, USDC on-chain transaction volume suddenly rose by 49%, but the perfusion pressure of reserve income dropped by 8%—this is not an improvement in cardiac output, but myocardial compensation. Third-quarter revenue and reserve income increased by 17% year-over-year to $865 million, while net operating profit only grew 5% to $226 million, resembling a surgery that superficially stops bleeding but still seeps underneath: circulation volume increased, but oxygen supply to profits did not keep pace.
The real primary issue is not transaction volume but the decline in reserve asset yield. Reserve income decreased by 8% to $658 million, equivalent to a drop in coronary perfusion pressure; no matter how lively on-chain transfers are, they are just stronger peripheral pulses and cannot replace the myocardium's own blood supply. If stablecoin circulation is considered heart rate and reserve yield as stroke volume, the current state is a fast heart rate with weak stroke volume, which in the long term will lead to a heart failure curve characterized by high output and low resistance. More dangerously, the expansion of transaction volume masks the thinning income per unit of blood flow, like stable blood pressure after anesthesia but insufficient tissue perfusion.
Arc blockchain-related token presales contributed $182 million in revenue, supporting the bulk of other business growth, like an emergency bypass: first establishing collateral circulation to restore blood flow to the report. But whether this income is a one-time diversion or sustainable perfusion depends on post-operative drainage volume, inflammation markers, and whether the anastomosis leaks. Mistaking presale income for baseline cardiac output is like treating adrenaline as a long-term inotropic drug—blood pressure looks good short-term, but myocardial oxygen consumption increases; once the presale window closes, the report may suffer reperfusion injury.
The linkage between tokenized US stock targets and Apple tokenized targets is another neural reflex arc. Expansion of stablecoin transaction volume will improve the microcirculation around tokenized stocks, but declining reserve yields will weaken the perfusion pressure of the entire chain; when US stock risk appetite experiences arrhythmia, tokenized targets will first show conduction block, then manifest as hypotension in price. What to watch is not daily price swings but liquidity heart rate variability, the electrocardiographic spectrum of buy-sell order books, and embolism risk from cross-market linkage. The pulse of Apple tokenized targets can be strong, but if the underlying stablecoin's perfusion pressure continues to decline, distal capillaries will also become ischemic.
My judgment: the 49% increase in transaction volume is compensatory tachycardia, while the 8% decline in reserve income is the myocardial ischemia that needs addressing; the $182 million from presales is more like temporary intraoperative pacing, enough to get through this stage, but the long-term survival rate depends on whether the reserve yield curve and real on-chain blood flow can resynchronize. #circleq3usdcvolumeup49%