Orbit Post Sitemap
This move follows the short-term weakness trend; I see it reinforcing cautious sentiment, not a bottom-fishing signal. $LIT dropped 7.16% in the past hour, from $3.51 to $3.26, with a 24-hour decline of 4.48%.
I have three principles for trend trading: watch the direction, don't guess the bottom — both hourly and intraday performance are weak, and low price alone is not a reason to stop the decline; distinguish levels, don't generalize — the sharp drop in one hour indicates short-term pressure but is insufficient to judge longer cycles; consider position cost, not just price — the position volume is about $123 million, funding rate remains positive, so longs still pay funding costs during the drop, meaning selling pressure is not necessarily exhausted.
The trend is the best friend. I won't rush to look for a reversal just because of a fast drop; next, I will only observe whether the price can stop the weakness and whether positions and funding rates cool down simultaneously.Bitcoin's false boom may not last for many more years. It can't exactly be called a scam, since many early investors have made a fortune, but the inherent nature of speculative assets requires a continuous stream of new buyers. Please note, here’s the key point: over the past 5 years, those who invested regularly have basically made no profit. The average transaction price over 5 years was $60,000, and now Bitcoin is at $70,000. After accounting for the opportunity cost equivalent to bank interest, Bitcoin has had no investment value in the last 5 years. Is it possible that the next 5 years will be the same? If a financial asset cannot bring you any returns in 10 years, what will its fate be? Besides gambling and money laundering, perhaps because Bitcoin has not become an official or widely accepted payment method in the digital currency space, it can only continue to exist in the underground gray market. What is your view on this fundamental issue of returns?Democrats take both chambers, is crypto doomed? Don't panic yet!
#美国加密监管：《CLARITY法案》推进受阻，401(k)规则进入最终审查
The chat group has been full of voices saying "It's over, the Democrats are going to kill the crypto world."
Really? Let's look at the hard data first:
In 2025, the CLARITY Act passed the House with 294 votes, including 78 Democrats in favor; the GENIUS stablecoin bill passed the Senate with 68 votes, supported by 18 Democratic senators.
In this midterm election, the crypto advocacy group Stand With Crypto counted 245 pro-crypto candidates elected (226 in the House, 19 in the Senate), from both parties.
There are indeed strong regulators like Warren and Waters within the party, but they are mostly targeting Trump's use of crypto as a family ATM, not 100% opposing the entire industry.
Regulation and "crackdown" are not the same thing.
Behaviors like Trump's use of cryptocurrency as a personal or even family ATM should indeed be regulated.
Personal judgment:
In the short term, it will definitely be tighter, with more hearings and investigations, and the legislative pace will slow down.
But a complete ban? The probability is low.
Crypto is no longer a niche game; both parties have supporters.
What we should really worry about is whether the industry can continue to prove its value, not blaming all problems on political parties. SoftBank's Q2 "beats expectations," but the support isn't from OpenAI
Net profit for April to June 2026 was ¥347.3 billion, down 18% year-on-year, yet more than double market expectations. However, digging deeper: the market support came from a one-time revaluation—Intel's shareholding unrealized gains of about ¥1.3 trillion, which is non-repeatable. The real mainline Vision Fund pre-tax profit was only ¥5.43 billion, a plummet of 98.8%; OpenAI contributed zero profit or loss this quarter due to an unchanged valuation since the end of March.
The issue isn't "whether OpenAI is worth it," but "whether SoftBank can afford to wait." The cumulative commitment has reached $64.6 billion, holding about 13%, but the assets are unlisted and illiquid. SoftBank continues to sustain itself by issuing debt and pledging Arm shares, with five-year CDS nearing a four-year high. An even more glaring signal: in OpenAI's new financing in November, SoftBank only discussed investing a few hundred million dollars, a stark contrast to the hundreds of billions invested in the past.
This financial report cannot answer whether the results are "impressive"; it only exposes a crack: the headline heat of the AI narrative is decoupling from the true temperature of financial quality.
#软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ A single bet was placed before the New York Times poll was released.
The bet amount was nearly $200,000, ultimately earning over $77,000 in profit. The numbers themselves aren't shocking; what's shocking is the timing: the money was placed before the information was public, and when the poll came out, the result just confirmed it.
This matter is worth pondering not because it's another "insider trading" scandal, but because it exposes a structural issue. The pricing speeds of prediction markets and spot markets differ. If you want to profit from information asymmetry on $BTC, you first have to interpret the data, then judge how the market will interpret it, and then judge how others interpret others' interpretations—there are several layers of noise in between. Prediction markets skip all the intermediate steps and directly bet on the result itself. The information advantage here doesn't need translation; it can be monetized immediately.
Putting nearly $200,000 principal on a single point shows that the bettor was quite confident in their information. Ordinary traders wouldn't do this—they would diversify, hedge, and keep options open. This kind of all-in bet is itself a signal.
So the real question isn't "Who made $77,000 this time?" but rather: when the result itself can be traded, how much is knowing the result in advance worth? Once this question has an answer, there will be no shortage of people willing to pay for it.
The takeaway for position holders is straightforward: in event-driven markets, prices often move significantly before the news is officially announced. If you wait for the announcement to trade on $ETH, you might be stepping into positions that others have already profited from.Berkshire's $400 billion cash signals not a "top escape," but a "handover pricing"
In Q1 2026, cash and short-term debt totaled $397.4 billion, accounting for 58% of total assets, surpassing stocks at 42%. This is the fifth time in history that "cash exceeds stocks," with the previous four times corresponding to 1969/1987/2000/2008. But don't just read this as a crash warning: short-term debt yields range from 3.6% to 4.3%, equity risk premium is close to zero, Berkshire is not bearish, it refuses to pay for unjustified risks.
More importantly, in Q2: after Abel took over, the 14-quarter net selling ended, with net buying close to $20 billion and buybacks of $4.5 billion, reducing cash to about $365 billion. The $400 billion is no longer Buffett's defensive fortress; it is becoming Abel's pricing ammunition: first buy back its own shares, then wait for others to be cheap. When to play the card depends not on whether the US stock market falls, but on whether asset prices deserve patience. The phone is still ringing, but the person answering has changed.
#伯克希尔巨额现金储备，财报将披露最新动向 Yesterday I just said Anthropic's IPO is the thermometer of the AI sector, and today it has given a reading.
The roadshow continues, the November listing is still on, but investors are already lowering valuation expectations — originally planning to raise over $80 billion at a $1.5 trillion valuation, aiming to list before Thanksgiving.
Why is this important?
Because IPOs are different from secondary market stock trading: stockholders can buy today and sell tomorrow, but IPO subscription funds are locked for at least half a year.
Those willing to lock real money into long positions are the most honest votes for the long-term AI narrative.
There are three possible outcomes next:
1. Price reduction but successful issuance — the most likely and healthiest scenario. A layer of the bubble is squeezed out, the anchor shifts down a bit, which is actually good for the long term.
2. Significant shrinkage or delay — the primary market enters a winter first, AI unicorn valuations will be revised downward in a chain reaction, and high-valued stocks in the secondary market lose their reference points.
3. Withstand pressure and issue at the original price — indicating there is more long-term money than expected, and the AI narrative still has some breath left.
The performance on the first day of listing is more critical than pricing. A break below the issue price means even "new share arbitrage" money is unwilling to buy, and the entire sector sentiment turns bearish immediately.
A strong opening and stabilization means this round of tech stock correction has truly bottomed out.
Anthropic's IPO is no longer just a company matter; it is a valuation referendum for the entire AI era.
#Anthropic仍计划11月IPO，投资者下调估值预期 😆😆The draw is in two days, one number will decide life or death!!
Rocket Lab will release its Q3 earnings report after the market closes on Monday, November 9, with a conference call at 17:00 ET. The first full trading day is Tuesday, November 10.
Recent market sentiment has been highly volatile, plunging to 45.99 on Thursday with a big drop, then rebounding sharply to 53.07 on Friday, a 15.39% surge, reflecting an oversold condition combined with a pre-earnings run-up. The run-up is a double-edged sword; at the current price level, the earnings report leaves less room for error.
Market expectations are for revenue of 256.5 million, Q4 guidance expected at 267.5 million, and GAAP EPS expected at -0.067. The company’s original guidance was revenue between 250 million and 265 million, with a gross margin of 29%-31%. Based on the midpoint, the GAAP loss may be slightly worse than expected, so there is considerable pressure on the GAAP line.
Historical earnings day performance:
Q3 2025: -1.27%
Q4 2025: -4.89% (double beat but still declined)
Q1 2026: +34.22% (beat across the board + order surge)
Q2 2026: -0.04% (big drop after hours, recovered the next day)
Only one of the four quarters saw a big gain, showing that simply meeting earnings targets doesn’t guarantee a rise; the market values the long-term story more. The current stock price has pulled back significantly from its high, compressing valuation, but Friday’s rebound has raised the bar for speculation. $PLTR
U.S. commercial revenue surpasses government revenue—has Palantir's valuation logic changed?
Palantir's U.S. commercial revenue in Q3 grew 148% year-over-year, surpassing U.S. government business revenue for the first time. The growth is broader-based, which is an important change, but the high growth rate will also raise the subsequent comparison base.
The value of software expansion lies in reuse: whether new customers can generate revenue through the same set of products without a proportional increase in delivery personnel. There is still an execution process between contract signing and high gross margin revenue.
If commercial customer expansion brings sustained cash collection and per-share cash flow growth, the premium is more justified; if delivery costs, equity incentives, or customer concentration risks increase, it is necessary to reduce simple extrapolation based on revenue growth.I feel like the crypto space is full of a lot of messy nonsense news, which is why everyone keeps getting liquidated every day. People keep trying to decide their positions based on things like nonfarm payrolls and inflation data! That's inherently damn lagging. The problem is that the current logic of the crypto $BTC market has long been tied only to the Trump administration, and it has nothing to do with economic fundamentals anymore.
Back when Trump had absolute control, the entire crypto market was in a state of certainty with only slight fluctuations influenced by news in the broader environment and long-term trends. As the biggest bull for crypto $BTC, Trump would always try his best to push policies favorable to crypto. But now the logic has completely changed; it's no longer a one-man show. With the Democrats controlling Congress, they will definitely try every means to block the advancement of crypto legislation. It's going to be hard to see a stable bullish trend for $BTC in the future!
Honestly, the Bitcoin bubble is also quite serious. I've always thought that after Trump's term ended, the crypto space would likely suffer a heavy blow. Now it seems that day might come sooner than expected!
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Waiting for Berkshire's Q3 report to come out
To be honest, right now I only focus on two numbers: operating profit and cash
The total net profit fluctuates too much, investment gains and losses can quickly swing by hundreds of millions or billions, which is not very meaningful. If operating profit can remain stable or slightly increase, it means the underlying insurance, railroad, and energy businesses are still making normal profits
If it drops significantly, that would be a real problem
Cash is even more critical. At the end of last quarter, it was about 360 billion, and this quarter they've already spent on buying Taylor Morrison and buybacks. If cash continues to decline, it means Greg Abel is getting serious; if it piles back up, then it's the same old story—lots of money but can't find cheap enough places to invest
When the numbers come out, I will just look at these two; no rush to draw conclusions on the others yet.An increase of about 20.7% in one week. When I see this number, it reminds me of a bit of life experience: when a store suddenly has more customers, it means people are willing to come in, but you can't just assume the kitchen is well-managed based on the crowd alone. After retiring and studying digital assets, I often use these simple truths to remind myself not to mistake the scene for the foundation.
According to DefiLlama, Aave V4 has about $807 million locked, with a single-day increase of 4.7%. My view is that this news carries more weight for those preparing to deposit assets than for those guessing market trends: as the scale grows, it should prompt people to check risks rather than skip the checks for them.
The reason is not complicated. TVL is influenced both by capital inflows and outflows and by token prices; it is not a safety rating. If the new funds heavily rely on similar collateral assets, then when facing the same price shock, risks may be exposed simultaneously — this is my speculation, as the data does not provide asset distribution. Looking only at the total amount neither reveals this structural layer nor proves the protocol's ability to withstand shocks is stronger.
Young friends, you can watch the excitement, but don't skip the homework. At my age, I learn slowly and would rather ask one more question: "What guarantees the safety of the money put in?" If you want to further understand Aave V4, would you first check the concentration of collateral assets or look at the liquidation mechanism? Why?#Berkshire's massive cash reserves, earnings report to reveal the latest developments Earnings season #NVIDIA #JensenHuangGTCspeech
Position attached: BTC spot (quick profit) + BTCUSDT perpetual 10x long (full position)
The core of making money in earnings season is not "good performance," but "expectation gap."
NVIDIA's recent results exceeded expectations, but the stock rose too much before the earnings report, opening high then plunging (selling the fact). My indicator: expectation gap = excess EPS ÷ price increase in the 20 days before the earnings report; a large denominator = good news likely fully priced in.
▍Current strategy and dual positions
Do not chase the first-day high open, guard against pullbacks; set stop loss 1.5% above the highest price.
Actual positions: spot base position (0.0203221 BTC quick profit) + contract long (10x full position, 850.6U, average price 75930.7).
Logic: With Nasdaq volatility, crypto follows the decline, not the rise. Spot resists volatility, contracts capitalize on the short-term long driven by the AI narrative in the GTC speech, risk controlled within 2%.
Profiting from emotional recovery; the above is a personal record and does not constitute investment advice; contracts carry high risk and require caution. On Saturday, the US stock market is closed, but stock tokens like SPCX and SNDK in Orbit are still fluctuating. Let's talk about their weekend pricing.
After the US market closes, without actual stock trades as an anchor, token prices basically rely on the last closing price stored by the oracle, plus the platform's own order book game — it's less about trading stocks and more about voting on the "Monday opening price.🔥 $BTC The large cycle downtrend structure remains unbroken, small cycle rebound lacks volume: is this support or a consolidation?
Recently, many crypto friends asked a very interesting question: Before Trump took office, Bitcoin surged from around 75,000 to 120,000. Now that Trump is clearing out Bitcoin and this phase is about to end, will Bitcoin fall back below 70,000?
First, a correction: this is not a "prediction" issue, because it is currently fluctuating above 75,000.
CME Bitcoin futures closed at 75,785 last night, with an intraday low of 74,810, and about 140 billion market value evaporated within 4 hours. That means the 75,000 level has just been touched. So the real question is: is this support or a consolidation before further decline?
The meaning of 75,000 is completely different.
Before Trump took office in 2024, Bitcoin had just risen from 68,000, ETF volume was just starting, incremental inflows, plus expectations of interest rate cuts and speculative trading.
Compared to the low after a 25% pullback from the 100,000 high at the beginning of the year, plus institutional pricing with ETF down 27% in one year, flows are priced out plus expectations and realization of rate hikes.
So don’t take "returning to 75,000" as a symmetrical reference — 75,000 in 2024 was a floor, now 75,000 is a contested level below the ceiling. In June this year, it even broke below 60,000 according to Securities Times, indicating the market’s lower boundary is looser than most people remember.The U.S. added 165,000 jobs in October, significantly stronger than expected, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. The tougher the economy holds up, the less eager the Federal Reserve is to ease, causing the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields to rise accordingly. For the crypto space, this kind of "good data" is actually not good news.
More striking is the capital flow. On November 6, the U.S. spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $411.9 million, marking two consecutive trading days of heavy losses. Over the past seven trading days, the cumulative net outflow is about $1.9 billion. While U.S. tech stocks can still rebound from overselling, BTC lacks genuine incremental buying.
So the current market is quite conflicted: after large-scale short liquidations, bears dare not chase, and bottom-fishing funds are unwilling to lift the price, resulting in prices appearing to stabilize but trading volume not returning.
This feels more like a breather after a crash. What the market truly needs is not a sudden bullish candle but for ETFs to stop outflows and for trading volume to steadily expand. Before these signals appear, any rebound could be quickly taken profit on, and rapid pullbacks are likely during downtrends. The hardest part in this phase is not being wrong on direction but being repeatedly harvested by the back-and-forth volatility. Therefore, any operation must be carefully considered. I've always been puzzled: every time I see "major trades of $672 million," the market doesn't move at all.
Later I realized that this number is the sum of buys and sells. $BTC buys $368 million, sells $304 million, totaling $672 million. It sounds like big money is rushing in, but the net difference is only $63.47 million. $ETH is even funnier, buys $370 million, sells $364 million, a difference of $5.54 million, which means two parties are just exchanging hands with no one gaining an advantage.
So that excitement about "whales entering the market" is mostly just scaring yourself.
As for the $2.9 billion+ on the order book walls, positive numbers mean there are people ready to take orders below. But orders can be withdrawn anytime, just like shouting prices in a market; shouting doesn't guarantee a purchase.XMR funding rate surged to 0.0372% per hour, annualized at about 326%. I judge this as a crowded signal against a healthy trend, not proof of strength; a 0.88% drop in 24 hours actually indicates that the bulls are paying to hold on hard. The trend is the best friend.
I follow three rules for trend trading: first, check if the price cooperates—XMR has not yet cooperated; second, check if the sentiment is overheated—this funding rate is already overheated; third, do not guess the turning point based on high funding rates, wait for structural confirmation. It intensifies speculative sentiment but weakens the quality of the market. What do you use now to judge the trend: price, funding rate, or open interest?Seeing "main force 24-hour trading volume of $672 million," the first reaction is that big money has entered. But the trading volume sums up both buys and sells together, counting both sides of the same matched trade; it measures activity, not direction.
Breaking it down: $BTC buy volume is $368 million, sell volume $304 million, net difference $63.47 million, only 9.4% of total volume. Buyers are more active, but over 90% is just matched turnover. $ETH buy volume is $370 million, sell volume $364 million, net difference $5.54 million, less than 0.8% of the $734 million total. The trading volume is even larger than BTC, but directional bias is almost zero.
Money is moving, but not choosing direction; it looks more like repeated turnover at the same price level providing liquidity. BTC's directional bias is more than ten times that of ETH; active buy orders concentrate on BTC, while ETH just follows the volume increase.
Looking at order books: $BTC net order difference is $2.969 billion, $ETH $2.95 billion, both positive, meaning limit buy orders below the current price exceed sell orders, showing support. But this is just intention, not a promise: orders can be placed but also withdrawn before execution. A $2.9 billion wall holding the order book and $2.9 billion actually being eaten are two different things.
The judgment is a structure biased toward bullishness but with weak strength. There is support below and no heavy selling pressure above, so the price is unlikely to collapse easily, but it does not support the idea that "the main force has boarded and is about to push up." What to watch is whether the wall thins as the price approaches—thinning means order withdrawal; being eaten means real buying.
The net difference accounts for only a few percentage points; direction is decided by that small group, while the rest of the volume is just accompanying the move.On November 7, trader Ansem posted that he believes the short-term weakness in $ZEC is indicating the next direction for major crypto assets.
Ansem stated that $ZEC had previously performed strongly, but most unrealized profits are also concentrated there. LINK spot fund has had zero inflow or outflow for 4 consecutive trading days, with only Grayscale GLNK moving on November 6 Eastern Time, experiencing a single-day net outflow of 1.06 million USD
This does not mean institutions are running away
The cumulative net inflow is still about 176 million USD
One entity is active, not the entire market withdrawing
$LINKAfter reading, I noted three things. What made me stop the most was Apple and Meta explicitly opposing stock tokenization, rather than someone else announcing support for on-chain stocks. The material says this project, supported by OKX and ICE, has a potentially reduced range of stocks due to corporate opposition.
1. I see this as a resistance to product implementation, but not directly as evidence of insufficient user demand. Whether companies are willing to participate and whether ordinary users want to use it are two separate lists; drawing conclusions about one based on the other feels like a leap.
2. I am more concerned about whether this resistance will increase implementation costs. This is my speculation: if subsequent coordination is needed with each company, then product expansion will be difficult to advance solely based on technical progress. For the sentiment in the related sector, the previously imagined rapid replication may need to be replaced with slower expectations.
3. From the perspective of ordinary users, I would first look at what specific rights can be obtained and what usage restrictions exist, then consider how convenient the on-chain process is. The material does not explain these, so I would rather leave it blank for now than automatically assume "stock tokens" are exactly the same as direct stock ownership.
In my list, I first record this news as an implementation obstacle, then focus on product rules next, without rushing to judge the entire sector's success or failure.#伯克希尔巨额现金储备，财报将披露最新动向 The Fear and Greed Index dropped to 25 today, entering extreme fear — beginners see this and want to buy the dip, but veterans first ask: during fear, is the position volume actually decreasing or increasing?
Saturday midday science popularization. First, how to use it: The Fear and Greed Index is a contrarian sentiment indicator, not a buy button. Extreme fear only tells you the odds are improving, not that the bottom has been reached.
It ranges from 0 to 100, calculated comprehensively from volatility, momentum volume, social media sentiment, market cap dominance, trends, and other dimensions. Below 25 is extreme fear, above 75 is extreme greed. Why use it inversely: when everyone is fearful, those wanting to sell have basically sold out, leaving only those who can hold; when everyone is greedy, new money has entered, and no one is left to catch the fall.
But it can be deceptive. In strong trends, extreme fear can become even more fearful. This BTC cycle dropped from 81,000 to 74,800, the index stayed in the fear zone all along, and every dip buy was buried because in a downtrend, cheap has no bottom.
Today's market is exactly the opposite. The index is at 25 extreme fear, yet BTC open interest is rising at 612.8 million contracts, up over 11 million since this morning, and the funding rate just flipped negative at -0.000052. In fear, new longs and shorts are still betting against each other, not clearing out. This combination looks more like a downtrend continuation rather than a bottom.
Sentiment indicators help you control impulses, not make decisions for you; positions should only be held for confirmed signals.
$BTC $ETHWhy has the US stock market recently been more volatile than altcoins? The main reason is mechanical selling pressure and amplified volatility caused by rules. There are three reasons; I'll explain one now that can be used later.
One very important reason for the mechanical selling pressure amplifying volatility is that the overall market-making structure of US stock market makers has entered a negative Gamma state. The more it falls, the more they sell, no longer smoothing volatility but amplifying it. Negative Gamma acts as an amplifier. The main forced selling reason is not, as many speculate, the liquidation of some funds (which does happen), but mainly the mechanical rebalancing of volatility funds. This is determined by the volatility fund mechanism and must be done as a selling rebalance. Before the midterm elections, I joked that the only thing I was sure of was going long volatility: "It either goes up or down, but it won't stay flat." Many thought this was useless information, but it can actually be used to make money by going long volatility. Bank of America has been promoting buying volatility insurance for a month and a half, and previously volatility was very low, insurance was cheap, cost was low, and returns were high, so many people went long volatility, making these funds quite large.
This is also why you can't bottom-fish today; retail buying cannot offset institutional mechanical selling pressure. Moreover, the largest retail force, ETFs, are also seeing outflows, which is another source of mechanical selling pressure. Leveraged ETFs must sell, while passive index ETFs have long been unable to keep up. One in, one out, selling pressure doubles with no end in sight in the short term. This was already rehearsed once with leveraged ETFs in the Korean stock market. This part is both an amplifier and a source of selling pressure.
If you don't understand, just don't watch. Just remember that institutions are selling because no one is buying, and they haven't finished selling yet.BTC and ETH longs are being liquidated, while ZEC is experiencing a short squeeze
As of November 7, 03:45 UTC, in the 24-hour liquidations across four exchanges, $BTC had about $42.01 million and $ETH about $33.35 million, both dominated by long liquidations; $ZEC had about $9.46 million, with short liquidations at $6.68 million, exceeding longs at $2.78 million. While mainstream coins are liquidating longs, ZEC is liquidating shorts, indicating a divergence in capital flow.
CoinGecko's derivatives snapshot on the same day shows ZEC's price rose about 6.7% in 24 hours, open interest (OI) increased about 26.9%, and the 8-hour funding rate was approximately +0.0068%. Although these data points are not from the exact same second snapshot, they both indicate relative strength for ZEC. Price increase and OI expansion suggest higher participation in new positions; combined with dominant short liquidations, there is a short squeeze element in the short term, but this cannot be entirely attributed to spot buying.
This kind of market is most likely to cause people to chase during the acceleration phase. If the price continues to rise and OI moderately increases, the strength may persist; if OI spikes but price stagnates, new positions may become crowded.
I prefer to wait for a pullback confirmation rather than chase just because of gains. Do you think this is a new trend or a short covering?
#美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% The old whale who bottomed out 10,376 $ETH at $1,626 back in June has added to their position again after a full 5 months!
The giant whale dumped 19.7 million USDT within an hour and bought 8,775 $ETH at $2,245. On-chain, there are clear signs of batch token swaps, using Uniswap and Wintermute channels.
Calculating it all, they now hold a total of 23,097 ETH, with a portfolio value of about $51.69 million, averaging a cost basis of $1,909.
This giant whale is not the type to trade short-term for quick gains. They held their position for a long time after the last low-level layout, and now that the market has risen, they are still willing to increase their stake, indicating confidence in ETH's mid-to-long-term outlook.
But a reminder: a whale adding to their position does not mean an immediate price pump; it's just a capital signal, so don't blindly follow the rush.First, let's lay out the numbers from the last round, without any embellishment. TRX long entered at 0.31738, exited at 0.31934, +0.60%, take profit at 0.318468 was hit. ZEC short entered at 1311.33, current price 1316.24, -0.37% unrealized loss, take profit at 1254.64 and stop loss at 1345.34 were not touched, not hit. XRP short entered at 1.1550, current price 1.1694, -1.30% unrealized loss, stop loss at 1.1703 was narrowly missed, not hit. One out of three trades hit, hit rate 33%, I won't hide this number. The most valuable spike in 48 hours: the whole network had $1.05 billion liquidated in 24 hours, 88% of which were longs; Bitcoin plunged from 81,105 down to 74,780, an 11-week low, then was immediately pushed back above 76,000. This is not a problem unique to crypto—the AI trading line in US stocks was split in the middle, with the Nasdaq down 7% in a day, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down over 12%, Nvidia falling below $200, and the fear index soaring to 70% in one day. Money was pulled out from the entire risk asset space, not just from within crypto. Here's a counterintuitive fact: when the overall readings look the worst, that's precisely when leverage is the cleanest. This account needs to be settled clearly. Long leverage wasn't closed because someone convinced them to, but because their stop-loss orders were executed one by one. The main force of liquidations are those chasing highs, not非农就业数据强于预期，推升市场对美联储偏鹰的预期，周五晚间ETH承压回落，进入周末之后，市场进入缩量震荡格局。 周末美股、美债休市，宏观流动性偏弱，整体成交明显萎缩，多空都没有足够增量资金发起突破，盘面波动收窄，以消化非农利空情绪为主。 资金端上，ETH现货ETF延续流出态势，机构资金偏好偏谨慎；合约端周五集中出清了大量多头，短期杠杆压力有所释放，但抛压并未完全消失。 技术层面，当前在2200美元附近反复测试支撑，属于关键观察位。守住支撑，才有机会试探上方2350附近阻力；一旦有效跌破，下方空间会进一步打开。 周末缺少新的宏观数据催化，行情大概率维持窄幅震荡，波动会集中在流动性恢复后的周一早盘，重点留意美债、美元联动以及ETF资金变化。 The Strait of Hormuz is not just a shipping lane, but an opened chessboard: the king's wing pawn is already at the cannon's mouth; whoever blinks first will have their midgame exposed. The "limited strike" on November 6 seemed to only target air defense facilities, but in fact was a first-move exchange—using a controlled military trade to probe the opponent's response, while keeping the diplomatic line half-open. The temporary arrangement brokered by Qatar is like a draw proposal in an endgame: it allows a breather, but does not mean the central square has been secured. Iran insists on meeting conditions first, which is equivalent to refusing a free pawn; Washington continues to weigh further military action against diplomatic solutions, a dual-line calculation before doubling rooks on the same file—one line applies pressure, the other negotiates exchange.
The real focus is not on "whether to reopen," but on who holds the initiative for passage rights. Once Hormuz shipping resumes, the risk premium will be like a hanging pawn removed, and the board will immediately lighten; but as long as conditions are unmet, the temporary arrangement remains a restraint, able to pin optimistic expectations in place at any time. The linkage with the US stock token $xLITE is here as well: it feeds on the composite wave of US stock risk appetite and shipping expectations, and when the market is thin, it resembles a few-pawn endgame where any threat of a checkmate is magnified. The opening focuses on the center, the midgame on compensation; a sacrificed piece without compensation is a miscalculation. If the limited strike does not secure the shipping lane, it simply gives the opponent tempo. Position management is the same—not reacting step-by-step, but calculating the king's safety, open lines, and endgame pieces twenty moves ahead before making a move. Until Hormuz's open line is truly cleared, every pulse of $xLITE is just a bluff before checkmate. #HormuzReopeningDispute CryptoQuant's Darkfost just flipped a set of numbers: $BTC holders have realized daily losses of about $660 million to $700 million over the past three days, totaling over $2 billion in three days; the 30-day net active spot buy-sell difference on Binance and Coinbase also turned negative (around -$28 million and -$9.4 million respectively on November 5), with more aggressive selling than buying on the spot side.
The market, however, is quite calm: OKX spot $BTC is now around 76,070, 24h high/low 76,379 / 74,888, basically flat; $ETH is about 2,248, up around 0.4%. TRdesk reports that BTC liquidations across 12 exchanges in the past 12 hours are only about $3.3 million, totaling about $52.2 million in 24h, with longs accounting for over 80%.
My view is that leverage has basically been cleaned out this round, liquidations can no longer push the price, next is to see if spot buyers step in; those cutting losses are still handing over chips, and until 75,000 is truly stabilized by spot, I’m not in a hurry to call the bottom.
$BTC $ETHWhen everyone looks up at the skyscraper clusters of US stock Token targets, Stripe, Visa, and Mastercard are quietly pouring the raft foundation of the entire city three meters underground. How tall the skyscrapers can be built has long been determined by the underground load-bearing structure; no one is still focused on the facade renderings for pricing.
The payment channels are like the underground utility corridors. Stripe's Global Payouts cover more than 160 markets, essentially laying a cross-regional main drainage pipeline; Visa has commercialized USDC cross-border pre-funded capital, equivalent to replacing existing pipelines with higher-pressure pipes; Mastercard is simultaneously expanding fiat and stablecoin settlement interfaces, conducting integrated pipeline collision checks. These actions produce no visual facade effects, but once poured and capped, the cost for later parties to dig again is the closure and renovation of the entire street.
USDC and OUSD entering corporate payments, cross-border transfers, and settlement clearing is not a simple stacking of scenarios but a redefinition of load-bearing wall positions on the original cadastral map. Transaction volume corresponds to measured human traffic load, settlement cost is the material grade, and commercial adoption rate is the actual occupancy rate upon project completion; missing any of these three makes the blueprint worthless. Whitepapers are always design blueprints; what truly determines whether a project can stand long-term is the stiffness of the underlying architecture and the ductility of development capability.
There is a structural linkage between the $xHOOD US stock Token target and the above pipelines; one must see clearly where the water, electricity, ventilation, and piping access nodes are, and not be dazzled by the reflective facade curtain walls. The load-bearing logic of tokenized stocks does not automatically hold just because it is on-chain; the question is, at which load-bearing layer do the three piles behind it—equity registration, custody clearing, and cross-border compliance—reach. Before the pipelines are connected, no matter how beautiful the facade design is, it is just a rendering.
Stripe’s step lands on the correct load-bearing layer; the distribution warehouses in over 160 markets determine that it is not drawing decorative lines in the basement but laying the foundation slab of the main building. Visa and Mastercard’s simultaneous actions are reinforcements and renovations of existing infrastructure, not new buildings. Such stock reinforcement often impacts industry standards more than new construction because it directly modifies construction acceptance specifications.
What really needs to be watched is how many enterprises are actually connected to this underground utility corridor, what the actual cost per settlement is, and whether the efficiency of cross-border pre-funded capital has been compressed. The blueprints have been reviewed; next is to look at construction quality and settlement monitoring data. #stripestablecoinpayouts$ACT ACT's sharp rally this time has no "hard positive news," purely driven by narrative rotation and capital games.
The catalyst on the surface is the renewed warming of the Solana ecosystem AI agent narrative, with community attention and momentum signals generated by AI trading tools resonating together, rather than product releases or fundamental breakthroughs. A deeper reason lies in the chip structure: previously, ACT's open interest surged while the price barely moved, clearly signaling new short positions, with the short exposure piling up thicker and thicker. When sector funds flow back, the combination of low market cap and crowded shorts can easily trigger a short squeeze.
But note, the "lifespan" of these Solana AI meme tokens is very short, with median heat lasting only about 1.5 days. The sharp short-term rally can also retreat just as quickly.$MET MET IS DOWN 32.95% IN 30D BUT UP 82.51% IN 90D. Today adds 7.74%, trading at 0.2964 against the 0.2609 low and 0.4420 high on this daily view. I'd rather respect the timeframe mismatch than cherry-pick one window.
Which window deserves more weight here: 30D or 90D? #伯克希尔巨额现金储备，财报将披露最新动向
Berkshire's massive cash reserves: In this earnings report, I'm more concerned about where the money is being spent
Whenever I see Berkshire's cash reserves, some interpret it as "the stock market is about to crash." But I think looking only at the total cash amount can easily miss the truly useful information.
Berkshire will release its Q3 2026 earnings report around 21:00 Beijing time on November 7. This time, I will focus on the direction of the funds.
First, a benchmark: As of the end of June, according to insurance and other business metrics, cash, cash equivalents, and U.S. short-term Treasury bonds totaled about $359.2 billion, after deducting unsettled Treasury purchase payables. The so-called "cash reserves" are not all cash sitting idle in bank accounts.
I mainly watch three signals:
① What drives changes in cash?
Operating cash flow, stock trading, acquisitions, and buybacks can all change the balance. An increase in cash does not necessarily mean a bearish outlook; a decrease in cash cannot be directly equated with a full-scale bottom-fishing.
② Will buybacks continue?
The company repurchased about $4.5 billion in Q2. The intensity of buybacks in Q3 can help observe how management weighs their own stock against other investment opportunities.
③ Can operating performance support long-term returns?
I will look at operating profits combining insurance, railroads, energy, and other businesses to avoid drawing conclusions based solely on net profit, which includes investment valuation fluctuations.
My judgment is: The most valuable aspect of cash is that it preserves the ability to choose. What’s truly worth tracking is at what price and for what assets management is willing to deploy itRunning a small company, my biggest fear is treating the inventory on the books as cash that can be used to pay salaries at any time. Looking at this message, I first calculate the input-output: fixed allocations can be discussed for cancellation, but risk reserves must be calculated based on actual expenditures, not just asset valuations.
Zcash co-founder Sean Bowe released a ZIP proposal suggesting stopping the automatic allocation of block subsidies to ZCG, redirecting the original 8% share to NSM. The proposal states that ZCG holds about 91,452.98 ZEC, valued at approximately $125 million, and the existing funds are sufficient to continue supporting related activities. This is still a proposal, not yet implemented.
My judgment is: re-examining fixed subsidies makes business sense, but "having enough stock" alone is not enough to prove that reallocating funds is more cost-effective. Doing business means you can't keep renewing budgets just because a department has money on its books, nor can you assume it doesn't need cash flow just because it has inventory.
I will watch two sets of accounts: one is the input-output of funded projects, what the money spent has returned; the other is the expenditure timeline and reserve endurance. If expenditures need to be continuously realized, and reserve valuations fluctuate, then even a sufficient book balance may face turnover pressure. This is my risk analysis; the material does not provide a specific expenditure table.
For me, the key is whether NSM can use money more effectively than the original allocation method. How would business friends view this: facing such risks, would you budget based on reserve valuations, or first keep enough reserves to cover fixed expenses? - The 9k bounced up then slid back down, I stared at the order book dumbfounded for two seconds 🌙 With such a hot nonfarm payroll, why can't BTC even hold above 76.4? Last night, US October nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, while the expectation was only 59,000, nearly three times; the unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, hourly wages rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, and the previous two months were revised up by about 84,000. Once the data came out, the probability of a 25bp rate hike in December on CME FedWatch rose from about 70% pre-market to about 79%. At the same time, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $430 million on November 5, with Fidelity FBTC outflowing about $200 million, BlackRock IBIT about $105 million, and a cumulative outflow of about $870 million through Thursday that week. $BTC current price is about 75,910, 24-hour high 76,427, low 74,888, funding rate about 0.006%. Putting these numbers together actually tells one thing: in cross-market linkage, interest rate expectations and ETF funds are pulling in opposite directions. Hotter employment pushes back rate cut expectations, making risk-free returns on the dollar side more attractive, naturally suppressing risk appetite; continuous ETF redemptions indicate marginal buying is retreating, and every bounce above the price easily meets spot selling pressure. After nonfarm payrolls, the price first surged to 76,100 then slid back near 75,900 with moderate volume, this movement looks more like emotional repair than a trend reversal. On the bullish side: the funding rate is only 0.006%, leverage is not crowded, indicating The biggest fear in business is mistaking the number of people in line for revenue, and I have the same habit when looking at contract data. According to OKEx contract trading data, the BTC long-short ratio has risen from 1.96 24 hours ago to 2.12 now, meaning for every 1 short account, there are 2.12 long accounts; this data updates hourly.
My judgment is that this is more like a risk reserve reminder, not a bullish order. For those trading $BTC contracts, especially those using high leverage, it is more meaningful than for ordinary onlookers. But based on just 2.12, I wouldn’t conclude it has reached an extreme, nor can I judge an immediate reversal from this.
Input and output must be measured in real money: the ratio only counts accounts, not positions; more clients don’t equal more returns, and a majority of long accounts doesn’t mean capital dominance. Another issue is clustered expectations. If the market moves against the trend, those with high positions may have less room to adjust. This is my speculation, not a conclusion proven by this data set.
I run a small company and am used to first asking if cash flow can withstand surprises before discussing how big the business can grow. Applied to trading, it means first setting aside risk reserves, not just gaining confidence because there are more people. For business friends, when you see more long accounts increasing but don’t know position sizes, how much capital buffer would you reserve to manage risk? A hotter-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls print of 165,000 landed well above consensus, yet $BTC barely flinched. The initial reaction pushed Bitcoin to roughly $74,800 — almost precisely the low of its previous correction — before the market steadied instead of cascading lower. That restraint is the story, not the data. The payroll beat lifted the implied probability of a December rate hike by about ten percentage points. In a textbook macro regime, that should compress risk appetite and drag $ABNB
Has Airbnb's AI investment already become visible in its costs?
In the third quarter, Airbnb's customer service cost per order dropped by more than 17% year-over-year, with about 40% of customer service issues resolved without human intervention. This effect is closer to the profit and loss statement than simply announcing AI features.
After automation reduces costs, service quality must be maintained. If refunds, complaints, and repeat contacts increase, the apparent savings may be offset by subsequent losses.
I am focusing on whether order growth, service quality, and profits can improve together. If efficiency improves while user retention remains stable, the AI returns are convincing; if the machine handling rate rises but damages the experience, the sustainability of the savings should be reassessed.Folks, US tech stocks have rebounded, but not every coin in the crypto space is buying it.
On Thursday, the semiconductor index dropped 12.25%, then rebounded about 4.2% on Friday; the Nasdaq rose 1.1% on Friday but still closed the week down. Risk appetite is recovering, but that doesn't mean capital is fully flowing back.
$BTC: around $76,018, up 0.40% in 24h, daily low at $74,850; however, on November 6, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $411.9 million. The price has stabilized, but institutional buying hasn't turned positive yet.
$SOL: around $90.19, up 0.62% in 24h; CoinGecko aggregated open interest dropped 1.4%. Price up but positions down, more like a rebound after deleveraging, not a renewed attack by leveraged funds.
$DOGE: around $0.07192, up 0.42% in 24h, trading between $0.07113 and $0.07337 during the day, still grinding within the range without showing independent strength.
I think this round is more like an emotional recovery, not a full reversal. Whether US stocks can hold steady and whether ETFs can stop outflows is more important than one or two green candles.
#美股AI板块走势分化：云服务商走强、数据中心股承压 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% A five-point daily range on the largest crypto asset is no longer a curiosity; it is the new test of conviction. The recent sequence matters less for its drama than for its mechanics: a violent shakeout that damaged confidence, a stubborn holding pattern in which retail traders read the drop as temporary and kept shorting, an election-driven rally that convinced the crowd the bad news was over and pulled bulls in, and then a sharp collapse that punished them. Read in that order, the pattern look$TRUMP Negative news: After the Democrats took control of both chambers, the valuation of the family coin is still being pulled down
After the Democrats took over both the House and Senate, what reason does TRUMP have to withstand the political discount?
OKEx current price 1.174, 24h -3.37%, volume about 7.45 million, intraday dropped from a high of 1.279 to around a low of 1.17
CoinMarketCap and TokenPost summary: After the Democrats swept the midterm elections on 11/3, Trump-related concept coins such as TRUMP, WLFI, MELANIA led the decline. TRUMP once fell about 17% in a single day to around 1.30, even though BTC was still rebounding at that time
The core issue is not slogans, but expectations of congressional investigations: The Democratic agenda specifically targets the Trump family’s crypto projects and conflicts of interest. Related legislative ethics clauses will also block the family coin narrative, sharply cutting the political brand premium
Coupled with this week’s tech stock collapse and about $1.1 billion in crypto liquidations, low-liquidity political meme coins have fallen deeper than mainstream coins, and are still digesting the tail end of the election impact.After the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index experienced its largest single-day drop since March 2020, shorts in storage stocks like $SNDK seem to have the momentum, but the real risk lies precisely in "falling smoothly." Those shorting are also waiting for a rebound: they only dare to add positions when prices fall, and panic when prices rise. This mentality itself shows that shorts fear not the decline, but the rebound. Once prices start to rise, unrealized losses on short positions increase, and those who have leveraged will be the first to be liquidated by the system, never getting to see the logic play out.
More importantly, when shorts are crowded, the rebound doesn't need to be strong; as long as it triggers a round of forced liquidations, it will create a negative feedback loop of "the higher it goes, the more is bought." Stop-loss is not admitting defeat, but preserving capital; cutting losses before the rebound is often cheaper than cutting at the peak. After cutting losses, one can re-enter the market; holding positions until capital is exhausted means losing the chips for the next round entirely. The sharp drop in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has given shorts confidence but also crowded positions on the same side. The rebound risk for $SNDK is accumulating.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $SNDK The logic behind being bearish on $SOL has never been a guess; the big funds with clear positions on-chain have already laid their cards on the table. There's a giant whale called the "landlord" who is simultaneously shorting BTC, ETH, and SOL, with 696,100 SOL shorts at an average entry price of $94.3346. Just the funding fees have earned nearly $3.95 million. They use low leverage and have high liquidation prices, collecting money effortlessly every day; their sense of direction is not based on guessing.
Previously, SOL fluctuated between $92 and $96, and many thought "it seems it can't fall further" and tried to bottom-fish. But the US spot SOL ETF had a single-day net outflow of $25.08 million, with Bitwise BSOL alone withdrawing $14.44 million, and Morgan Stanley also transferred nearly 9,300 SOL to Coinbase, suspected to be for selling. Capital is voting with its feet, and every rebound on the chart is weak and soft.
I didn't chase shorts above $93; I entered the market after the price rebounded to around $91.42 and confirmed that the upper moving average resistance remained effective. The 100x position profited from the momentum sell-off driven by capital outflow and whale pressure, with the latest mark at $90.02, yielding 153%.
Next, the swing low at $88.48 is the first level to watch for support; a volume contraction and halt in decline would lock in some profits. If the rebound to $91.61 is pushed back down again, the bearish structure remains intact. The biggest risk is a rapid rebound after bulls fiercely defend around $88, which under 100x leverage can cause a significant portion of unrealized gains to evaporate within minutes. $BTC $ETH Wow, ZEC is attracting capital, while HYPE and SOL seem more like taking a breather
All three coins are rebounding, but their position movements are completely different. CoinGecko derivatives snapshot: ZEC around $1,312, up 2.7% in 24h, OI up 18.7%; HYPE around $79.36, up 1.4%, OI down 2.1%; SOL around $90.19, up 0.9%, OI down 1.4%.
$ZEC: Price and OI are rising in sync, participation is increasing. CoinStats aggregates Binance, Bybit, OKX liquidations in the past 24h, ZEC short positions liquidated at $5.57 million, accounting for 68.3% of the coin's liquidations. There is short squeeze support in the short term, but it doesn't mean all comes from spot buying.
$HYPE: Price rebounds but OI contracts, more like a recovery after some positions exited; whether it continues depends on if the pullback has real buying support.
$SOL: Small gains, OI hasn't expanded, currently lacks evidence of accelerated capital inflow. Watch around $90, a slight rise doesn't mean a trend reversal.
I'm willing to put ZEC on the watchlist but won't chase at the peak of sentiment. If it consolidates at a high level while OI continues to surge, crowding risk will also rise.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #8月非农16.2万远超预期，加息押注升温 The most interesting thing today is not BTC turning green, but that XRP didn't follow suit
To be honest, when the market turns green, it's easiest to mistakenly think all coins are safe. Snapshot on November 7: BTC around $76,018, up 0.40% in 24h; ETH around $2,247, up 0.85%; XRP around $1.168, down 2.12%.
$BTC: Intraday range $74,850—$76,378, current price back near $76,000; but on November 6, US spot BTC ETF net outflow was $411.9 million. Price is supported, but institutional spot funds have not yet turned positive, so I won't consider the rebound a reversal.
$ETH: Daily gain outperformed BTC, but CoinGecko aggregated OI dropped 2.9% in the past 24 hours. Price up with position reduction looks more like a deleveraging repair, no new leveraged long relay visible for now.
$XRP: Intraday low $1.1518, rebound still lagging; aggregated OI down 3.5%. Weakness and position shrinkage appear simultaneously, so we can't assume a catch-up rally just because it fell more.
I see this as a partial repair: BTC looks for support at $75,000, ETH looks for OI bottoming, XRP first recovers $1.18. Let's see who can confirm first.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% #BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 Every time I see "whale withdrawal," I want to ask: where did it go?
The news only says this address took 13,100 ETH from Binance in six days, worth 29.97 million USD. Spread over six days, that's over 2,000 ETH per day, with the last transaction being 3,300 ETH, worth 7.42 million USD.
The key point is that no one mentions the destination. Is it lying in a cold wallet, going into staking to earn interest, or will it be deposited back to another exchange in a few days to prepare for selling? Three scenarios, three different outcomes.
So, just take this kind of news with a grain of salt. Who holds the ETH is far more important than which exchange it was withdrawn from.Russia officially opens retail crypto trading, with BTC, ETH, and USDT included as tradable assets, effective November 17.
However, it is not a full liberalization and comes with clear restrictions: ordinary retail investors must first pass a risk test, with an individual annual limit of 300,000 rubles; meanwhile, cryptocurrencies cannot be used for daily payments within Russia, only allowed for investment and cross-border settlements.
Many see this as a major positive, but let's objectively break it down:
✅ Positive aspect: a new compliant incremental capital pool, representing a regional compliance breakthrough, providing another regulatory sample for global crypto oversight, which can easily boost sentiment in the short term.
⚠️ The drawbacks are also obvious: low quota limits and limited scale mean incremental funds are unlikely to offset ETF outflows and Federal Reserve liquidity trends. Moreover, this is a regional policy, not a global liberalization, so its driving force should not be overestimated.
Looking at the current market, this can only be considered a sentiment bonus, unable to reverse the current range-bound consolidation pattern.
For BTC to break out of the trend, the core factors remain U.S. Treasury bonds, interest rate hike expectations, and ETF capital flows.
The news is worth monitoring, but do not rely solely on it to bet on the market.
Do you think this news can bring sustained capital inflows?
$BTC $ETH BTC is back to 75,000, ETH is hovering at 2226, SOL is holding firm at 90. The backend is seeing more people asking about bottom-fishing again. My answer remains the same: no rush. Prices can be deceptive, but funding rates are not. A true oversold rebound is often accompanied by funding rates plunging into deep negative territory—shorts are extremely crowded, and a short squeeze provides the fuel. But now? Funding rates are mildly positive, with neither panic nor capitulation; market sentiment #After the US stock market crash, tech stocks rebound, but the Nasdaq weekly chart still falls about 3.4%
The leader has something to say
I connect this with the market situation over the past two days: On November 5, the US stock market was sold off across the board, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping more than 12% in one day, hitting AI and semiconductor sectors hard; on November 6, Nvidia and AMD rebounded, the Nasdaq recovered, but the Dow still closed down, showing market divergence. The Nasdaq still fell about 3.4% for the whole week. The community bluntly says: the single-day rebound is a technical bounce, the continued weekly decline indicates a weakening trend, this is a window to reduce positions, not a turning point.
My interpretation is: rebounds after such crashes are the easiest to deceive. A big bullish candle lifts prices, retail investors think the bottom is in and chase in, but in fact, it provides liquidity for institutions to reduce positions. The real signals are: whether the rebound can hold for a week, whether ETF net inflows can turn positive, and whether the rate hike expectations brought by the non-farm payrolls can be digested. Before that, all rebounds should be treated as technical pullbacks. For the crypto market, BTC's correlation with the Nasdaq these days is very high; if the Nasdaq does not stabilize, BTC cannot be said to have reversed.
BTC current price is about 74800, with narrow fluctuations on Saturday. My approach: 75000 has changed from support to resistance, looking down to 73000; I do not chase this weekend's rebound, waiting for the US stock market to confirm direction on Monday. The advantage of being out of the market is not having to struggle with rebounds.
The above analysis is time-sensitive, please stay safe. $BTC $ETH $SNDK