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On one side, IBIT dumped about 1.21 billion in a week, while on the other, FBTC still net absorbed about 93 million — both are US spot Bitcoin ETFs, but last week's scripts were completely opposite.
The whole category saw a net outflow of about 1.28 billion USD from 11/2 to 11/6, the worst week since late June; the year-to-date cumulative also flipped from slightly positive to about 914 million net outflow. ETH spot ETFs lost about 365 million in the same week, marking the sixth consecutive week of net outflow.
Why it matters: Just looking at "whether ETFs are buying or not" is too rough; breaking it down to individual ETFs reveals whether funds are just shifting seats or truly exiting.
Confidence: Medium-High | Weekly updates from SoSoValue / The Block / Farside and other media and data providers; outflow ≠ on-chain dumping. You should watch whether Monday continues to be positive, or first see if IBIT alone can stop the outflow? $BTC #美军再度打击伊朗，霍尔木兹海峡重开仍存分歧 Once the non-farm payrolls were released, the market's previous hopes for a rate cut were immediately dashed. Employment data significantly exceeded expectations, wages did not stabilize, and the labor market remains very resilient. Funds quickly raised bets on a December rate hike, U.S. Treasury yields surged, and the dollar strengthened.
The logic is simple: with a hot job market, the Federal Reserve has no pressure to ease monetary policy hastily; instead, it has the confidence to continue controlling inflation, prolonging the period of high interest rates. For U.S. tech growth stocks, valuation pressure has returned. There was a sharp drop earlier, and the subsequent rebound is just short covering, not a trend reversal.
This macroeconomic trend directly impacts Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a high-risk asset; with rising interest rate expectations, the cost of leveraged funds increases, and capital prefers risk-free returns like U.S. Treasuries, making the market prone to pressure. Recently, BTC spot ETFs have seen continuous outflows, institutional funds remain cautious, and combined with rate hike expectations, the market is unlikely to sustain a strong rally.
Going forward, focus on CPI inflation data, as this is the ultimate basis for the Federal Reserve's decisions. Currently, it is just an expectation game, volatility will increase, so do not chase rebounds with heavy positions. Manage your positions and wait for macro fundamentals to materialize before acting.
Open your position panel and check the defensive stop-losses on your current orders.
$BTC $ETH $SOL A signal overshadowed by the Middle East and crypto markets, which I find more honest than candlestick charts: According to Nikkei statistics, nearly half of Japan's manufacturing sector has raised its full-year profit forecasts, indicating a prosperous outlook. But hidden in the report is a sentence saying the market has started to worry that "capital expenditures by U.S. tech companies may slow down."
The weight of this statement lies in who said it. Japan's electrical machinery and chemical industries are upstream suppliers in the global AI hardware chain, and they rely on this wave of U.S. capex. Even those holding the rice bowl are beginning to worry about running out of food, which is far more convincing than downstream voices shouting "bubble."
I've always said that the tech peak won't be announced with fanfare; it will first leak out cautiously through the supply chain. $BTC is now tightly linked to tech, and the sentiment upstream will sooner or later be reflected on your screen.
Do you trust the downstream voices more, or the upstream ledgers?Bitcoin's false boom may not last for many more years. It can't exactly be called a scam, since many early investors have made a fortune, but the inherent nature of speculative assets requires a continuous stream of new buyers. Please note, here’s the key point: over the past 5 years, those who invested regularly have basically made no profit. The average transaction price over 5 years was $60,000, and now Bitcoin is at $70,000. After accounting for the opportunity cost equivalent to bank CoreWeave did something quite intriguing today: before the new governor of Texas took office, they specifically sent a letter seeking cooperation, promising to "responsibly complete approved projects and establish long-term sustainable standards."
To translate: a company that builds data centers by borrowing money suddenly starts emphasizing "sustainability" and "responsibility"—usually not because business is going well, but because the financing side is starting to demand explanations. Just as rumors circulate about Microsoft pulling out and delivery delays, they rush to show loyalty to local governments; this sequence itself is a signal.
The narrative around AI this round has never been about whether it will collapse, but about when this "borrow-to-expand" financing chain will have to repay its debts. $BTC is deleveraging alongside tech stocks this week, and it's the same underlying story.
Don't just focus on the K-line charts; pay attention to who is in a hurry to justify themselves. Do you think AI capex this round is just warming up or about to repay debts?It's almost dawn, and I'm studying the order opening strategies of the experts. I found one address holding 1,352 BTC short positions, with an unrealized profit of 3.74 million, total position size 187 million, all three legs are short.
BTC is the main position: 25x full position, opened at 78,645, nominal 103 million, accounting for 84%, the entire account relies on it. ETH and SOL are satellite positions, 15.62 million and 3.21 million respectively; ETH opened at 2,262, unrealized profit When losses become so large that all you want is to quickly end this pain, are the decisions you make next truly trading judgments, or are your emotions making the choices for you? What’s even more concerning is that when a person's decision-making system has been taken over by stress, how can they regain a sense of control, and by what standards can they judge whether they have truly recovered? This article discusses how to get the part of yourself outside the account back on track after returning. First, let's talk about a very common phenomenon: many people, once they experience a significant drawdown, their first reaction is to quickly make back the losses. This is actually very dangerous because from that moment on, your purpose in trading may have changed. Originally, you were looking for high reward opportunities, but now you just want to end the pain. Originally, you were judging the market, but now you just want your account to quickly return to its previous position. These two states may both look like trading, but their essence is completely different. When people are under the greatest pressure, what they most want to solve is often not the market problem, but their own emotional problem. This is also the starting point of many uncontrolled trades: one loss leads to immediately making the next trade, then another loss, increasing position sizes, increasing frequency. You think you are working hard to recover losses, but in reality, you are just becoming more and more unable to tolerate the current state. So after a big drawdown, the first question is not what to trade next, but whether you are actually trading or just trying to stop the pain. If the answer tends toward the latter, then you should stop, because what you most need to recover at this time is not your profitability, but your judgment ability. This also explains a phenomenon very familiar to retail traders: why they always feel like they are about to cut"Against Human Nature, Don't Run Naked Against the Wind"
The most counterintuitive aspect of trading: positions that make you comfortable often hide landmines, while decisions that make you uncomfortable may actually yield good results. Once you get complacent, the market will always deliver a critical hit.
The Nasdaq dropped 6% overnight, like a gift to those holding no positions — the more it falls, the more you buy, provided you still have ammo and aren't tied up by leverage. After US stocks went on-chain, leverage became easily accessible, with 10x or 20x leverage common on X and Square, going long 3x semiconductor ETFs, SanDisk, Micron, Hynix. Bottom-fishing against the downtrend, going long is 10 times riskier than shorting; combined with high leverage, a stampede is almost inevitable. This year has already seen three rounds of traders falling.
Looking back at 2015 data: after the Nasdaq fell more than 6% in a single day, the probability of a rise the next day was 88.9%, with 8 rebounds out of 9. For those without positions, this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to build a position, with cheap chips everywhere, albeit bloodied.
But probability is not a talisman. Going against human nature does not mean running naked against the wind; when catching flying knives, don't use high leverage.
#美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% Buying walls are not human walls
At the GRVT buy price of $0.20741, there are 119,934.3 tokens, but only 1 order, so a large single order cannot be mistaken for a group of people buying in.
Don't count heads yet.
I also record the number of orders; cancellations don't require notice.
$GRVT
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Don't rush to bottom-fish; first check if the "fuel" is enough
BTC has returned above 75,000, ETH slipped to 2226, and SOL is holding firm near the 90 mark. There are clearly more voices in the background asking "Can we bottom-fish now?" but my answer remains: no rush.
Price creates sentiment, but funding rates are closer to the facts. A truly decent oversold rebound usually first drives the funding rate deeply negative—shorts are crowded, positions imbalanced, and only then is there fuel for a short squeeze. But now the funding rate is still mildly positive, with no panic selling or capitulation in sight.
What does this indicate? It looks more like a pause in a volume-shrinking downtrend rather than the shape a bottom should take. Bottoms usually aren't "called out"; they are forced out by shorts being crowded to the extreme and then squeezed out.
Bottom-fishing is never about who acts fastest, but who can wait longest. Without the fuel in place, I'd rather stay on the sidelines and watch. The market doesn't lack opportunities; it lacks patience.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 US tech stocks sentiment transmission, Democrats' sweep ignites AI regulation panic
Nasdaq fell 5.5% on Thursday, S&P dropped 4.4%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged as much as 10%. After the Democrats took both chambers, the market worries about data center construction being blocked and tighter AI regulations. This BTC drop is synchronized with tech stocks, not its own issue. The question is, when tech stocks rebound, will BTC follow? Last night the Nasdaq rebounded, but BTC barely moved up. Now with the US stock market closed, Bitcoin also shows no rebound. The hype continues to decline steadily.Bitcoin mining difficulty has not returned to its historical peak for 374 consecutive days.
The peak was at 155.97T on October 29, 2025. This is the longest "no new high" period in the network's history, surpassing the 364 days after the 2011 crash and also exceeding the period after China's ban in 2021.
In the past, such a prolonged difficulty stagnation had only two explanations: a crash or a ban by a major country. This time, the explanation is: AI is bidding higher.
Facts: The current difficulty is 148.36T, about 4.9% lower than the peak, with the next adjustment on November 13, expected to remain basically flat. The 7-day average hash rate at the end of July was about 868 EH/s, while it exceeded 1 ZH/s at the end of last year; year-over-year difficulty has turned negative for the second time in history. Miners sold more than 32,000 BTC in the first quarter, exceeding the entire previous year. Core Scientific will confirm in this week's earnings report: it will completely exit mining in the fourth quarter and transition to data center hosting — in the third quarter, $233 million in revenue, of which $215 million came from colocation services.
Electricity has not disappeared; it has just been sold to customers who bid higher. This is not a network security issue; it is the industry changing its business.
Sources: Bitcoin.com, CoinWarz, Yahoo FinanceI think it's accurate, the four-year bull and bear cycle repeats, and at least Bitcoin is still accurate. From 2023 to 2025, altcoins are not accurate; the altcoin peak will be in the first half of 2024.
Next, let's see where Bitcoin's low point will be. The historical low is 57,800; can it break below that and create a new low? Or will it just test the 60,000 level twice and then end the bear market? Or maybe right now it's a big V-shaped recovery, starting a bull market.Will the $NBIS earnings report exceed expectations? I am optimistic Yes
Predicted price Yes 70¢, the overall market is bullish, and I am optimistic too. Reasons:
1️⃣ Revenue for the last two quarters has exceeded expectations, Q2 actual about $582 million, expected about $577 million, Q1 exceeded by about 6.6%
2️⃣ EPS has repeatedly beaten expectations by a large margin, Q2 loss of $0.12, expected loss of $0.82, Q1 loss of $0.33, expected loss of $0.73
3️⃣ AI computing power demand still exceeds supply, Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin has risen to 41%, both growth and margin are moving in a positive direction
⚠️ Risks also need to be clearly seen:
· Q3'25 and Q4'25 revenues are both below expectations, by about 5%, not every time exceeding
· Q3 revenue expectation about $920 million, compared to Q2's $580 million, the bar is not low Staying up late watching Hyperliquid positions
The whale short orders are piling up, making me a bit confused 👀
BTC shorts are about 890 to 920 million dollars
Longs are about 450 to 480 million
Shorts are roughly twice the longs
Net short is about 350 to 470 million
This is the most bearish since October 2025
The largest single short is about 178.5 million
Entry around 76390
There are also shorts of about 155 million and 101.8 million
Below that, a series of shorts over 60 million
Since around October 27, after flipping to net short, they've been adding continuously
Platform BTC perpetual open interest is about 3.13 billion
Spot is still hovering around 75,700
Big money seems more like betting on a drop right now
Remember how it moves around 76,000 first
Don’t follow the crowd shouting directions Nonfarm payrolls explode, what’s the outlook for BTC and ETH!!!
This time, nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, while the expectation was only 65,000, greatly exceeding expectations. The unemployment rate fell and wages rose simultaneously, typical hawkish data. After the data release, the probability of a December rate hike quickly rose, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar strengthened, and liquidity tightening expectations suppressed the market.
BTC: The core of the market, highly correlated with the Nasdaq. After the data release, it quickly dipped as long leverage was concentratedly liquidated. Spot ETF funds are prone to outflow, support levels are broken, and selling pressure will accelerate; with larger volume and deeper institutional holdings, its downside elasticity is less than ETH. Focus on the 74,000 support level.
ETH: Has stronger high Beta characteristics, combined with DeFi and derivatives leverage positions, volatility is significantly greater. Rising interest rates increase funding costs, DeFi funds contract, bearish for the ecosystem, and the pullback is usually stronger. Focus on the 2,200 support level.
Market rhythm: The data release is a realization of bearish expectations. The first wave is a sharp drop killing longs at the moment of release; the second phase depends on whether U.S. Treasury yields can continue to rise. If they spike and then fall back, a short-term corrective rebound will occur, which is a weak bounce after a decline.
The above is only a market review reference and does not constitute any trading advice.
Open the position panel and check the stop-loss positions of your orders. #
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Investors are pushing prices down, but what should traders actually be looking at?
A valuation cut in IPO negotiations doesn't necessarily mean the company suddenly got worse; it could also mean the cost of capital has increased. Previously, quarterly revenue growth was about 144%, compared to 47% this quarter. High growth doesn't mean it will accelerate forever.
Shift your focus to $NEAR: around $3.70 at 12:00 UTC on November 7, down 0.96% in 24h. Neither the AI narrative nor the public chain narrative can replace buying pressure; short-term gains do not equal the project securing orders from traditional AI companies.
In contrast, $WLD is about $0.3386, down 2.82% in 24h. The market has not broadly strengthened due to AI news.
I actually think the same applies to AI tokens: price pullbacks need to distinguish between valuation compression and real usage deterioration; you can't simply label it as negative news.
If the roadshow date and issue price are not finally confirmed, you can't write the expected progress as completed, nor can you replace on-chain data.
Do you see the valuation pullback as risk release, or are you worried the entire sector needs to be repriced?
#Anthropic仍计划11月IPO，投资者下调估值预期 #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% $SOL The most fragile part of this rebound isn't the price, but the sentiment on the derivatives side that hasn't been fully squeezed out yet. - Is the support at 90 really that solid? I've been watching SOL's order book these past two days; the spot market looks like it's slowly stopping the bleeding, but the derivatives side gives me a completely different feeling. The price is recovering from a sharp drop, seemingly with buyers defending 89 to 90, but in reality, it feels more like leveraged positions are tentatively covering rather than new money confidently entering. What really needs attention is that the perpetual contract open interest is still hanging there, and the funding rate hasn't clearly turned negative, indicating the longs haven't been fully flushed out and floating positions remain. I break down the key signals into two groups. Momentum side: - 89 to 90 has been repeatedly tested but not broken, short-term buying is indeed stepping in. - After the price stands back in the range, 97, 103 to 113 are natural targets for short covering. - As long as open interest doesn't continue to accumulate, the rebound has room to develop into a corrective rally. Risk side: - If the funding rate turns positive again and open interest increases, it means new longs are being put back into a vulnerable position. - Once 89 is breached, stop losses and liquidations will pile up, and the decline could be sharper than the previous round. - This rebound hasn't been accompanied by obvious spot volume expansion, indicating weak support and sentiment recovering faster than real demand. My own understanding is that the market is not trading on "SOL has bottomed," but rather on "where the shorts are willing to stop." In this structure, rebounds can move fast but lack a solid foundation; around 97 is very likely the first barrierOn the surface, ETFs have tamed BTC into a smooth straight line, but staring at this trend actually gives me a bit of a chill down my spine. That straight line—does it represent maturity, or has the explosive power been quietly drained away? From 2011 to 2017 and 2019 to 2021, BTC's acceleration phases were like an ECG sharply spiking upward—steep, sudden, and emotional; from 2022 to 2025, it almost climbs along a slanting line. At first glance, this seems positive: volatility converges, institutions enter, and the narrative becomes respectable. But when I keep a position journal, I fear this kind of "too smooth" chart the most—it easily misleads people into thinking risks have been ironed out, so leverage quietly increases, stop losses quietly loosen, and the rhythm quietly shifts from "waiting for a pullback" to "fear of missing out." What’s truly being traded this round is not just the incremental volume brought by ETFs, but also the expectation that "BTC has already become a mature asset" being priced in early. The cross-market linkage also reveals this flavor: it increasingly behaves like a risk asset breathing with macro interest rates and dollar liquidity, rather than an isolated island telling its own story. The benefit is that allocation demand from traditional capital pools is more stable, support during pullbacks is stronger, and ETH and leading altcoins are more easily taken care of as well. The risk is that once external interest rate expectations reverse, this straight line will be pulled along too, and because everyone is used to low volatility, the psychological gap during a stampede will be even greater. My own adjustment is: not to bet on 2025’s acceleration with the violent experience of 2017, nor to relax position discipline just because the chart has smoothed out. The bullish path lies in institutional allocation not yet being complete, a slow bull rhythm; the bearish risk lies in volatility being compressed afterThere's something I've never quite understood: opening the group chat shows a bear market everywhere, opening the K-line, $BTC is just slowly drifting down, no crash.
Today the dominance dropped to 59.24%, down 0.26 points, with a 24-hour trading volume of $9.207 billion. Sounds intimidating, but the circulating market cap is $1.51 trillion, and with that volume spread out, there really aren't many people selling. The pain comes from no one buying, not from people dumping.
$ETH dominance did rise a bit, but that's because others shrank while it didn't, not because it got stronger itself. This kind of rise is the easiest to deceive.$MUBARAK was the star meme of March 2025: meaning "blessed." CZ bought about $600 worth with 1 BNB, it rose 200% in two days, and the market cap touched 200 million. Now the market cap is only 40 million.
In the past two weeks, it has only done one thing: bleeding. It slid down from 0.0525 to 0.040 without a crash or black swan event, just no buyers—daily volume shrank from 6 million to 1.78 million, and the ceiling kept lowering step by step: 0.0445, 0.0438, with each rebound weaker than the last.
At 00:00 this morning, a sharp drop hit 0.03889, the largest single-hour volume in several days, approaching the previous low of 0.03856 on 11/3, then weakly pulled back to 0.040. The project team has no new updates, and CZ has not interacted again—the story is over, only existing holders are watching each other now.
The real risk for this token is not how much it falls, but if volume continues to dry up, the previous low will be breached on contact. The main bet is on a weak bottoming with a bias toward breaking down: if 0.0386 doesn't hold, look for 0.034-0.035.
Watch volume to confirm: after this drop, is there volume to follow? Can daily volume return above 3 million? Any rebound without volume is fake; only after holding above 0.0438 can a turnaround be discussed.At the $ETH 2207 USD level, only a thin layer separates it from the 2200 whole number threshold, but the real signal lies elsewhere: a trader has been averaging down from 2297 to 2343 and has not reduced their position, only planning to place a sell order at 2200. This is not an isolated case but a collective stance—bulls are fighting the trend by adding positions and comforting themselves with the average price. The biggest warning is not $ETH itself, but the behavior of the same funds elsewhere. Someone has reduced leverage on $AKE from 10x to 5x, then to 4x, raising the average price from 0.0042850 to 0.0051827. Last night, unrealized profits once reached $16,000 but were not taken; now they are holding the position. The lower the leverage, the higher the average price is pushed—not risk management, but self-comfort after passive losses. Complaints about "long and short double blowouts" essentially blame market makers for poor position management, but the market never responds to emotions, only to chips. A more subtle signal is in $SNDK. While retail investors are still discussing "bottom fishing," the order book tells a different story: 800 has already been broken, buy orders are thin, and selling pressure continues. Those entering now are not bottom fishing but supplying bullets to the shorts. The narrative of "everyone is bottom fishing" often appears at moments with the weakest support—the true bottom never needs mobilization. Putting these three clues together, the picture becomes clear: $ETH is approaching a key psychological level, $AKE's high-leverage bulls are forced to reduce leverage and hold positions, and $SNDK's "bottom fishing consensus" diverges from the order book. ThreeThe chain is faster, but the interface may not be.
I don't endorse wallets with a stopwatch.
SOL spot price is $89.16, 24-hour low is $89.10. The finality mentioned in the upgrade report is not the actual time I confirm and see the funds arrive in the wallet interface.
Two clocks, recorded separately.
$SOL
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 "Restricted Purchase Opening: Regulatory Model or Narrative Noise?"
On November 6, the Russian Central Bank fixed the retail purchase list: $BTC, $ETH, $USDT, effective from November 17. Purchases can be made through brokers, asset managers, or crypto exchanges; qualified investors have no limits but must pass a test before trading. Non-qualified investors have an annual limit of about 300,000 rubles — this is not a "nationwide open celebration," but a limited channel under regulatory control. The Moscow Exchange also plans to launch in December. Lowering the threshold ≠ reducing risk.
For the global narrative, in the short term, it looks more like noise: limited quotas, pre-trade testing, controlled channels, and actual incremental funds are unlikely to be a major catalyst. But in the long term, this is a sovereign state incorporating crypto assets into a compliance framework, which is a positive step toward institutional normalization. For $BTC and $ETH, don’t interpret "opening" directly as "liquidity easing"; first look at the implementation details and actual subscription scale.
Confidence: High | Source: Russian Central Bank official disclosure. Do you think this kind of "restricted purchase opening" adds value or noise to the global narrative? #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% #BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 #软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ How to put itIt's almost dawn, and I'm studying the order opening strategies of the experts. I found one address holding 1,352 BTC short positions, with an unrealized profit of 3.74 million, total position size 187 million, all three legs are short.
BTC is the main position: 25x full position, opened at 78,645, nominal 103 million, accounting for 84%, the entire account relies on it. ETH and SOL are satellite positions, 15.62 million and 3.21 million respectively; ETH opened at 2,262, unrealized profit only 140,000, the weakest; SOL opened at 94.66, unrealized profit 170,000.
But the biggest risk lies in the full position. BTC liquidation price is 92,450, 22% away from the current price, backed by the entire account equity with no isolation wall: if it truly stands back above 80,000, the unrealized profits of all three legs will be simultaneously given back. 121 pending orders are still hanging, take-profit and short replenishment are all arranged, this is a managed position, not a gamble.
My view: an institutional-style short portfolio, heavy main position, light satellites, orders manage the exit. The structure and patience can be learned, but I won't learn the full-position one-sided trade.
Watching two signals: closing ETH first is the retreat line, only when BTC main position reduces can the downtrend be considered over. He hasn't touched ZEC; tonight ZEC short positions are being squeezed, he doesn't squeeze thin positions.#Rapid growth of NebiusAI cloud business faces financial report test I'll be honest, this is the most interesting $NBIS story of the week.
Dylan runs SemiAnalysis, an AI chip research firm. Here he's saying Nebius should be worth MORE than the startup Baseten.
SemiAnalysis also happens to own the research firm "Citrini" which told clients this week to bet against $NBIS... then switched that bet against $IREN instead.
All this happening right before $NBIS earnings.
5 days until Nov 12.The rate hike bets are back, so why did gold fall first?
On the evening of November 6, the US added 165,000 nonfarm jobs in October, more than twice the market expectation; the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, with a total upward revision of 84,000 jobs for the previous two months. After the data was released, the probability of a rate hike in December jumped from 67% to nearly 80%, the two-year US Treasury yield rose about 8 basis points, and spot gold fell more than 1%. $XAU It's all inflation's fault that led to the Democratic Party coming to power. Once the Democrats took office, most data center projects were paused, and the entire AI industry chain was repriced. In the end, the Democrats couldn't accomplish much. The Democrats are very much like the Qingliu faction during the Jiajing period; although they start from the perspective of the American people's living costs, without relying on Trump's three-pronged approach, the U.S. will most likely decline. The U.S. government currently has only three ways to make up the fiscal gap: first, selling oil and natural gas; second, tariff wars (which are essentially years of trade deficits demanding other countries exporting to the U.S. to subsidize America); third, AI investment (this was proven in Q2 and Q3, with economic growth accelerating again in Q3). Then, oil prices need to be sold at high prices but controlled within a certain range—exact figures unknown—but global inventories are at historic lows. Regardless of whether the straits are open or not, oil prices will remain high because refined oil inventories are even lower. The surge in oil prices will affect inflation, causing it to soar and thus pushing up U.S. Treasury yields. Rising Treasury yields will limit the Treasury Department's ability to reduce the fiscal deficit and the Federal Reserve's room for rate cuts and balance sheet reduction. Overall, the President, the Federal Reserve Chair, and the Treasury Secretary form a trinity; many times this year, these three have each been responsible for controlling oil prices, with the Treasury releasing TGA accounts in coordination with the Fed's reverse repo operations on U.S. Treasuries. Both are showing green, but one surged then retreated, while the other is still near its high. I think calling both CT and NES "strong" is a bit too simplistic.
CT is currently priced at 0.12841, up 3.07% in 24h, but it peaked at 0.14627 and is now 12.21% below that high. With a volatility of 17.89% and a trading volume of about 6.71 million USDT, the market is quite active, but the price didn’t hold the surge level. For this kind of green, I prefer to call it "the afterglow of a surge."
NES is currently at 0.1559, up 6.27%, only 0.70% below its high, with a volatility of just 7.23%. It looks steadier, but the trading volume is about 160,000 USDT, which is a different level of activity compared to CT.
Here’s the controversy: CT has larger volume but retreated further; NES has smaller volume but holds its position better. I focus on the distance from the high and volatility structure, not just the ranking by gains—the green on the list only means it’s still rising, not that the rise is equally solid.
Keep watching: do you focus on the gain rankings or the position holding near the high? #OKX星球话题来啦 $CT $NES During this period, the storage sector in the US stock market has been hit very hard. I deliberately refrained from shorting SanDisk below 1200, waited for two weeks to bottom fish at 1036, hoping for an ideal rebound around 1000. I thought a pullback to around 1000 in July could rebound 400 points in one day, so a rebound of 100-120 points this time wouldn't be excessive. But the rebound was only 60 points, with almost no resistance at the threshold, extremely disappointing, almost spat out old blood. So the night before last, I had to stop loss at the July low of 970, then shorted two orders with 50x leverage, capturing 150 points of momentum in the accelerated downtrend.
SanDisk, which I traded most intensively in July-August, now I have to prepare to give up on this target. In principle, the pullback is too large, not suitable for continuously chasing shorts, but the highs keep moving lower, and the pullback trend is gradually escalating. For now, it's safer to short on rebounds. 800 is the last line of defense; if it breaks here, it will head towards 688-642 or even lower. Because the weekly MACD shows a trend of crossing below the zero line, and the daily line has not yet formed a bottom, once the 800 support breaks, the downtrend will accelerate again.
Therefore, if you still hold long positions around 1000, you must hedge by continuously reducing positions on rallies. Take profits on shorts when you can; there is not much room for choice now. Solely going long or bottom fishing the stock is currently neither affordable nor worth waiting for. The power transition in the US has a huge impact on semiconductors, which is an irreversible short-term negative. It is expected that after the congressional power transition stabilizes policies and institutional funds come in, storage may return to a bullish trend. $SNDK October Nonfarm Payroll Data Shocks the Market: 165,000 New Jobs Added (Far Exceeding the Expected 65,000), Unemployment Rate Drops to 4.1%. After the data release, the US Dollar Index surged rapidly, and market bets on a further Fed rate hike in December intensified sharply. Fed officials (San Francisco Fed President Daly) timely signaled a hawkish stance, indicating that "rate hikes may still be necessary." Faced with such strong data, the market experienced short-term dips followed by volatility, with fierce debate over whether the rebound is a dead-cat bounce or a realization of negative news. From the perspective of commercial trading and capital competition, let's break down the current core logic. The truth behind the strong nonfarm data battle: macroeconomic pressure remains unrelieved. The much higher-than-expected job additions combined with the falling unemployment rate have directly shattered the illusion of "sharp rate cuts/easing." The Fed has ample reason to maintain a hawkish stance. Short-covering vs. trend reversal: the price rebound after the strong nonfarm data is largely due to extreme panic before the data, with short sellers taking profits and covering positions after the negative news was realized; this is more of a liquidity-driven oversold rebound rather than a definitive trend reversal. The real ultimate test: November 10 CPI data. Nonfarm payrolls represent employment resilience, while the upcoming October CPI is the decisive indicator of inflation. Before the CPI announcement, capital will likely maintain high-frequency oscillations and probing. How to seize the initiative amid macro disturbances? "The market always swings between sentiment and data; traders only focus on profit and loss." What is most feared if there is progress in negotiations is misinterpretation.
The truly useful news is when navigation, supply, and risk premiums undergo substantial changes, not just a change in the tone of the headline. On November 6, Brent crude settled at about $98.32, with a weekly decline close to 17%.
First, looking at $SOL: on November 7 at 12:00 UTC, about $89.93, 24h -0.47%; aggregate OI daily change -5.2%. High elasticity has not been fully released, weekly recovery still to be confirmed.
On the other hand, $LINK: about $10.82, 24h -0.37%; perpetual OI across three exchanges about $168 million. The price has not independently broken through; subsequent spot transactions need to be observed.
Comparing horizontally, diplomatic progress itself does not equal new spot buy orders; the crypto market still needs to check if volume and contract positions are aligned.
If crude oil jumps next time, I will first look at whether the dollar and yields move in the same direction, then see if the crypto market has simultaneously expanded sell orders.
If good news is released but the coin price surges then falls back, would you consider it a cash-out or a false breakout?
#美军再度打击伊朗，霍尔木兹海峡重开仍存分歧 #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% WLFI Buyback: Where Does the Money Come From and Where Does It Go?
After WLFI dropped more than 60%, it quickly announced a buyback, showing a proactive stance, but a closer look at the terms makes it seem more like a defensive move.
The cash reserves are not substantial. The buyback funds "may include" USD1 reserve earnings, and the USD1 reserve earned about $12.09 million in October, averaging less than $390,000 per day. Compared to WLFI's market cap of about $1.5 billion, the scale of this support for the price is highly questionable.
More critically, the cash reserves themselves are leaking. The USD1 circulating supply shrank by 7.6% in one week and 19.5% in one month. Reserve earnings depend on the circulating supply; as the supply decreases, the "ammunition" for buybacks will only diminish. Using shrinking cash flow to support the price of an existing token is logically inconsistent.
It is also unclear how the repurchased tokens will be handled. The project had a precedent of buyback and burn in 2025, but this announcement only mentions "increasing voting rights for long-term holders" without clarifying whether or how many tokens will be burned. If not burned, the buyback merely transfers circulating tokens from one group of holders to another, with no change in total supply and no real change in supply-demand dynamics.
Therefore, the real indicator to watch is not whether Trump endorses it, but whether the USD1 circulating supply can stop declining. That is the only source of fresh funds for the buyback; if the source dries up, no matter how good the story sounds, it won't connect.The moment a breaking news alert popped up on the screen, the group chat went silent for two seconds, then emoji spam started flooding in. So, do you think the market believed it first, or did people panic first? What I see is the emotional fluctuation brought by the latest Financial Times report: U.S. intelligence assessment claims that Jensen Huang had a personal relationship with Megaspeed's former head Alice Huang, who is suspected of collecting information for China. Previously, Nvidia's official stance was that the two only had normal work interactions. The truth of the news is still uncertain, but the market never waits for the truth; it trades first on the word "uncertainty." What is really being priced here is not gossip, but a trust discount. Jensen Huang is not just the CEO for Nvidia; he is the narrative itself—a personified symbol of faith in AI computing power. When this symbol shows cracks, even if only at the rumor level, the first reaction of capital is to shrink risk exposure rather than verify details. The transmission path is actually very clear: once NVDA-related sentiment loosens, the AI sector's risk appetite shakes first, then it moves on to BTC and ETH. Because in this round of the crypto market, the AI narrative and computing power concept are tied to the sentiment of U.S. tech stocks, not an independent trend. Altcoins labeled with AI, computing power, and decentralized GPU tags have greater emotional volatility but are also more prone to being mistakenly sold off. The more bullish logic is: if it is later proven to be just media exaggeration and the official stance remains unchanged, then this is just an emotional dip to buy the dip In the early morning, I analyzed a set of long and short borrowing data, and the more I look, the more uneasy I feel!
BTC, ETH, and SOL long borrowing continues to accumulate,with leveraged long positions reaching new highs,while shorts are almost inactive.
When the vast majority of leveraged funds cluster on the long side, it often hides liquidation risks, and a rapid shakeout could happen at any time.
$BTC: Long borrowing 1864.85 BTC, short borrowing 50.9 BTC
$ETH: Long borrowing 17,600 ETH.#US Military Strikes Iran Again, Disagreements Persist Over Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
On November 6, Trump personally confirmed that the US military launched a "small strike" on Iran's Qeshm Island, destroying an air defense system in "about 5 minutes." He also boasted that the US military "might be the occupier," and nothing would be transported to Iran. But note the wording—"small strike," "not a war"—the US side deliberately keeps a low profile, not wanting to signal a return to large-scale combat.
The disagreement over reopening the strait hinges on "who moves first."
Iran's "two-day plan" is: on the first day, the US complies; on the second day, the strait reopens. The conditions are clearly listed: lifting oil sanctions, ending the maritime blockade, and unfreezing funds. The US insists on seeing substantial Iranian concessions on the nuclear issue first. Qatar and Egypt are mediating, but Iranian officials frankly say "the distance to reaching an agreement is still far."
Oil prices have already moved ahead. Brent crude plunged 13.3% this week, falling from $113.43 to $98.32, marking the largest weekly drop since 2022. But this is pricing in the "expectation of war premium removal," not confirmation of "supply restoration"—Hormuz transit volume remains only 75% of pre-war levels, and diesel inventories are at their lowest since 2003.
Fighting while negotiating is the norm; expectations run ahead of reality, a common trait of oil markets and risk assets. In this tug-of-war, don't take any party's "signal" as final. $ETH $ZEC $SNDK Strong employment coexists with weak coins; the problem may be leverage
When the news is hot, it’s easier to attribute price fluctuations to headlines; in reality, position adjustments might be more critical. The broad U-6 unemployment rate rose to 7.9%, so employment is not without concerns.
Turning attention to $BTC: around $75,917 at 12:00 UTC on November 7, 24h -0.21%; 8h funding rate +0.0013%. Relatively stable.
In contrast, $SOL: about $89.93, 24h -0.47%; aggregate OI daily change -5.2%. Volatility is sensitive to risk appetite.
Also adding $AVAX: about $8.27, 24h -1.40%; perpetual OI across three exchanges about $136 million. The decline is significant.
I think comparing perpetual positions of mainstream and high-elasticity coins can indicate participation levels but does not automatically determine net long or net short.
I will watch if the daily chart can hold intraday lows; strong employment is just background, and without support, it doesn’t count as market recovery.
In this wave, are you more cautious about high leverage volatility, or waiting for recovery after position shrinkage?
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% #BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 Follow me to get three things: the real trading positions after each day's close, the hard stop-loss price for each position, and the original records of losing trades. 41 trading days, not a single one deleted. BTC fell from above 80,000 down to 75,805 during this period, and my net asset value drawdown was 6.8%, which I honestly record here.
Today, two signals are conflicting. The employment report pushed the rate hike probability up another notch, but BTC only dropped 0.2%, and ETH remained almost flat at 2,236. I tend to believe the chip structure has changed: the 75,000 area is the dense spot cost zone of the past two months; when the price falls here, someone buys, not no one. The real risk is not the rate hike itself, but the forced liquidation of leveraged longs after CPI crushed the December rate cut expectations. ETH always falls before BTC when liquidity tightens, and at 2,236, I have no intention to add positions.
My position is: 60% spot, zero contracts. Hard stop-loss at 71,800; if it falls there, I cut without any story. If CPI is moderate, I add back to 80%; if CPI is explosive, I reduce to 40%. I make no subjective judgments in between, nor do I average down by adding positions.
Before the CPI release, do you clear your positions waiting for the data, or hold spot and tough it out?
Follow me, I publicly share real trading positions and stop-loss logic daily, and honestly report losses.
#OKXProphet Coins are not company shares
$1.1628, XRP spot facing the 24-hour high of 1.1853, the community is still debating whether the company should support the coin price.
I do not guarantee returns.
Holding coins does not equal holding Ripple equity; I record company news separately.
$XRP
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Total volume surpassing does not equal winning
I'll first look at the separate columns.
Provenance's surpass report sums two types of RWA, ETH spot price is 2235.36 USD, 24-hour low is 2225.31.
The original table also separates into two columns; I don't use total volume to judge the ecosystem's win or loss.
$ETH
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #软银重金押注OpenAI, can the Q2 earnings report deliver impressive results?
Oh my, is this the rhythm of a crash? The Nasdaq dropped 6.4% in a single day, the fear index VIX surged 70%, mom, I want to go home!
First, look at US tech stocks, what a massacre. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 12%, SanDisk plummeted 22%, Western Digital fell 17%, Nvidia dropped 9% wiping out all its gains for the year, CoreWeave fell another 10% hitting a new low since listing.
Retail investors sold at a record scale within 30 minutes of market open, hedge funds bought as much as retail sold, but there weren’t enough buyers to take over.
The trigger is still the Democrats. The market fears not only tighter data center approvals but also the Democrats pushing a ban on artificial superintelligence!
If this thing lands, the imagination space for the AI arms race will be politically capped. Concerns about chip capacity oversupply will follow, and the valuation logic propped up by supply-demand gaps in storage stocks will be directly shaken.
The shockwave quickly crossed the Pacific. On Friday, Asia-Pacific followed with a crash: South Korea’s composite index plunged 8.8% below 5000 points triggering a circuit breaker, Samsung and SK Hynix fell over 10%; the Nikkei fell below 60000 points, down more than 20% from its high, officially entering a technical bear market, Advantest plunged 15%, SoftBank dropped 14%.
We warned yesterday afternoon before the crash that Texas flipping blue would cause huge negative impacts on data centers, hope it helped you. But this drop indeed exceeded expectations.
$BTC $SNDK $ETH AKE surged to the top of the gainers list, with this wave of rally capped by the unlocking node on the 21st of this month. The heat has already split the market into two completely opposing scenarios. This article chooses to take a wait-and-see stance; only if large on-chain addresses continue to show no withdrawal records does the long hypothesis have room to persist. On-chain capital inflow records are the core support for bulls. Continuous capital inflow will turn the sideways phase into a chip sedimentation window, establishing positions around 0.005, with an upward target set at 0.006. The foundation for this logic is very thin; if the project’s addresses show mass transfers, the entire scenario collapses immediately. The bullish idea is fully anchored on the on-chain net inflow signal, assuming the current sideways movement is a deliberate accumulation action, and that no large-scale sell-off will occur before unlocking. Small coins have a strong habit of hype-driven speculation; when the heat is sufficient, scattered buy orders can push the price up for a short rally. But it cannot withstand concentrated profit-taking. As unlocking approaches, early holders’ willingness to exit will continue to rise. There is no need for the project team to dump; scattered profit-taking orders alone can break short-term support. Another scenario defines this rally as a hype-driven event from news, a common trick for speculative coins to pump before unlocking to attract off-market funds to take over. The external environment is also tightening; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index experienced its largest single-day drop since March 2020. The market is awaiting the December rate hike pricing, and risk appetite contraction will prioritize withdrawing liquidity from such small-cap coins. Under pressure from the broader market, independent rallies will... "First a shakeout, then differentiation: The volatile dilemma of BTC and ETH"
BTC is repeatedly tugging between $75,000 and $78,000, while ETH hovers narrowly between $2,200 and $2,300. In October, they fell by 7.3% and 16.0% respectively, with market breadth clearly narrowing 😐. Price is just the surface; the real issue lies in capital structure: BTC and ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously seeing net outflows, with ETH bleeding about $1.6 billion in a single month, as institutional demand shifts toward tactical contraction 📉.
More subtly, the total open interest across the market has dropped to a 12-month low, with leverage largely cleared out; yet perpetual funding rates remain positive, indicating some longs are still paying to stay bullish. Chips are lighter, but the obsession hasn't faded 😮💨.
Looking ahead, the probability of a one-sided breakout is low; it's more likely to first test the bottom, then differentiate. 10x Research believes BTC still has a chance to reach $90,000 by year-end, but only if it first dips to $77,000–$79,000 to complete the final shakeout; ETH may continue to underperform BTC due to value flowing to Layer 2, leaving ETH holders with insufficient returns 🧐.
The key turning point depends on whether perpetual funding rates can turn negative: only when bulls completely give up resistance can the bottom be considered truly established. Until then, any rise should be viewed as an oversold rebound rather than a trend reversal ⚠️.
$BTC $ETH
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $ZEC Bearish News: Bulls Were Washed Out After NU7 Launch, Current Price Retraces Gains Before Upgrade
Current price 1265.91 USDT, approximately -6.3% in 24 hours, trading volume about 51.3 million USDT, range 1250.67-1364.08
NU7 was activated on the mainnet on November 6, reducing block time target from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, with 60% of fees allocated to the network's sustainable reserve. ZEC had risen about 7.7% the day before the upgrade
The sell-off was decisive; CoinGlass shows about 4.73 million USD liquidated in the past 24 hours, with longs around 4.13 million USD and shorts only about 600,000 USD
The upgrade itself shortens confirmation time, but leveraged longs had fully priced in expectations early. The main theme now is the retracement of gains made before the upgrade.Market Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by market depth
$AKE large trade costs are rising simultaneously, while small trade costs remain basically unchanged. Simulated buy/sell slippage for 100,000 scale increased from 1.09%/0.67% to 1.27%/0.80%. Order size may be reduced or split until costs return to an acceptable range. 🚨 The calmer the $BTC rebound, the more cautious I am about going long! The $72,000 target remains unchanged for now!
After last night's news, the market reaction was even calmer than I expected.
BTC dipped to around $74,800 before bouncing back. This level is quite special, coinciding with an important retracement low from the previous rally in September.
Looking at $ETH, it dipped to $2,207 at the lowest, without even breaking the previous low of $2,170.
On the surface, the bulls seem to be showing decent support.
But I have another layer of concern.
1️⃣ After the sharp drop, bottom-fishing funds are starting to concentrate their entry.
From BTC dropping from $88,000 to around $75,000, and ETH from $2,880 to near $2,200, many investors already feel the prices are cheap enough.
Whether it's spot buying or bottom-fishing in the futures market, some support may form around this area.
But the problem is: concentrated short-term buying does not mean the market has completed its bottom formation.
2️⃣ Why do I still look at $72,000?
My judgment is that the market may still lack sustained upward momentum in the next one or two months.
If a large amount of funds concentrate on bottom-fishing around $75,000–$76,000, then once that support breaks, some leveraged positions may be forced to exit, and the market could see another round of concentrated selling.
Of course, this is just my view on the market structureBitcoin ETFs just logged $412M in outflows — second day running. 🟠
BTC is at $75,654, holding $75,000. Support: $75,000. Resistance: $76,371, then $79,000.
ETF flows are the tape that matters now: two days of selling, and $75K still hasn't broken.
My take: outflows without a breakdown is digestion, not distribution. CPI decides.
Are ETF flows the new fear gauge? 👇
#Bitcoin #BTC #ETF #Crypto #OKXOrbit"Silence After the Flash Crash: A Breather or the Night Before the Storm?"
$1.1 billion long positions liquidated overnight, BTC quickly retreated after testing $81,000. The market has temporarily stabilized, but it feels more like a short pause after high pressure rather than a risk resolution.
BTC is currently at $75,965, having fallen below the market average cost near $77,700. The $75,000–$75,400 range has concentrated many long liquidations; if this zone breaks, $73,000 will be the next key level to watch.
ETH is at $2,235, with a maximum 24-hour drop of nearly 7.5%, amplified by leverage. The $2,200–$2,170 range serves as a short-term defense line; breaking below it will likely maintain a weak trend.
SOL is at $89.96, showing clear high Beta characteristics, with the deepest drop close to 8%. When risk appetite cools, funds exit faster; although the rebound elasticity is strong, defense remains the priority currently.
Summary: The sell-off in AI stocks, regulatory concerns, and cascading liquidations of highly leveraged longs have created a resonance effect. The market structure is already damaged, and confidence recovery will not happen overnight. $ETH .Beichen has seen this kind of scene many times. When ETFs first came out, everyone said, "This is institutional long-term capital entering the market," but after two years, it turned out that the fastest to run were precisely the institutions. They are more afraid of losses than retail investors because they have to report quarterly to their investors. So whenever the market stirs, ETF redemptions are always faster than on-chain movements. On-chain whales can play dead, but ETF managers cannot. Back to the market. Now around 76,000, 840 million ran off in two days, but the price only dropped 1%. This detail is very important—money is running, but the price hasn't collapsed, which means other money is stepping in. Who is stepping in? Either it's spot buying from Asia, or positions above 80,000 that didn't run are adding to their holdings. Regardless, as long as 75,200 doesn't break, this wave hasn't reached its worst yet.