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$AKE extremes will reverse; the shorts at the top have stretched the battle line so long, and the long leverage positions have all been liquidated. The remaining longs without leverage no longer care whether it falls or not. Further drops will only attract hungry wolves outside the market. Based on this, it can be inferred that currently, the stop-profit and stop-loss orders of shorts inside the market are more likely to be triggered. If you were the market maker, which side would you play next? Last night when the data came out, I had an open position.
October added 165,000 jobs, expected 65,000, more than double; unemployment rate didn’t rise but fell, from 4.2% to 4.1%. The narrative of "economic weakness, rate cut in December" that had been hanging around for half a year disappeared overnight.
$BTC was hovering around 75,500, but as soon as the data came out, it broke 75,000 directly, hitting a seven-week low at 74,762. This isn’t panic selling, it’s positions recalculating; if interest rates don’t come down, valuations can’t hold.
I’ve been trading for fifteen years; I’m not afraid of bad data, I’m afraid when data contradicts my own judgment. I didn’t buy the dip tonight. The batch of longs at 75,500 was cut at 74,600, the loss wasn’t big, but when the direction is wrong, you can’t hold on stubbornly.
I can’t guess whether rates will be raised in December, nor is it necessary. Just watch if 74,200 can hold; if it breaks, the next support is 73,000. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $SPY
Is the strong non-farm payroll data a profit boost or valuation pressure for the broader market?
The US added 165,000 non-farm jobs in October, significantly higher than the average monthly increase of 48,000 over the past 12 months. Employment shows resilience, and corporate demand may not slow down rapidly, but funding costs may not decrease quickly either.
The broader market depends on whether earnings growth can offset discount rate pressure. During sector divergence, index stabilization may also mask operational weakness in most companies.
I focus on earnings forecast revisions and market breadth. If more sectors raise earnings and the number of advancing stocks spreads, the recovery is healthier; if a few heavyweights drive gains while yields continue to rise, the index performance alone is insufficient to prove that risks have been resolved.$BTC 50x long positions holding on waiting for a rebound, even if the price remains unchanged, nearly 30% of the margin will be eaten up by funding fees in one month.
OKX BTC perpetual contracts have settled funding fees 279 times in nearly 93 days, with 257 times positive, meaning longs pay shorts, accounting for 92%.
In the past 30 days, 90 times totaled about 0.56% (calculated by position notional), converted to margin:
· 3x: about 1.7%
· 10x: 5.6%
· 20x: 11.2%
· 50x: 28%
Each time is only about 0.01%, deducted every 8 hours, so few people take it seriously. This round just turned negative today (−0.0004%), but negative rates have only appeared 22 times in nearly three months.
Leverage longs are not waiting for a rebound, they are paying rent every 8 hours.
Not investment advice | Data: OKX public API
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Memecoins aren't leading this leg down. They're cheapest to push.
$PEPE -4.55% on $19.6M; $BTC -0.5% on twenty times the turnover, a ninth of the move. Which means one percent costs PEPE $4.3M, $NEAR $7.3M, $XRP $18.6M.
I stay out before the open. I flip if PEPE prints $30M without a new low.
Cheap to push is cheap to bounce.
Fade it, or wait for the book?
Crypto is high-risk. Personal observation only, not investment advice. DYOR.
$PEPE $NEAR $XRP
#Pepe #OKXOrbit #Crypto #Altcoins #BTC spot ETF has seen a net outflow of about $416 million this year. This is a critical turning signal: spot ETFs have long been a source of incremental funds since their launch, but now the funds have turned from positive to negative this year, indicating a general weakening in institutional allocation willingness.
The core pressure comes from the macro side: non-farm payroll data remains strong, the market has delayed rate cut expectations, U.S. Treasury yields stay high, and the appeal of the interest-free asset Bitcoin declines. Institutions prioritize returning to U.S. Treasuries and cash for defense. Coupled with the Democrats taking control of both houses of Congress, expectations for tighter crypto regulation have intensified, leading funds to reduce exposure in advance and increase risk-averse redemptions.
Structurally, differentiation is obvious: top products continue to see large outflows, but not all ETFs are being redeemed; some products still have small inflows, representing growing institutional divergence rather than a one-sided flight. Meanwhile, the pace of corporate treasury accumulation has slowed, weakening the buying force that originally absorbed selling pressure, thus weakening the supply-demand pattern and amplifying price volatility.
It is important to distinguish: the cumulative outflow scale this year is not extreme and has not reached panic-level stampede; it is more of a portfolio rebalancing. However, continuous outflows will suppress rebound heights, and each rise is likely to encounter redemption selling pressure. Going forward, key focus should be on U.S. Treasury yields, SEC regulatory developments, and weekly fund flows. If large outflows persist, it will further weaken the bulls' confidence.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK $UP This is very likely a bull trap!
After a sharp rebound from a steep drop at a high level, although it looks fierce and has risen above the short-term moving average, the resistance from the previous high's trapped positions above is very heavy. As the price climbs, the bullish momentum indicator's red bars are visibly shortening, showing that the upward momentum is seriously exhausted.
Looking at the underlying chip structure, the long-short ratio is 1.05, almost evenly matched, and the funding rate is still positive. This means the bulls are holding positions at a loss, and the market has not formed an extreme situation where shorts are forced to cover. Without short squeeze as fuel, why would the main force kindly push the price up strongly?
The most likely scenario is a weak rally followed by a rapid pullback, continuing to test the real support below. The margin of safety for entering now is almost zero, and the risk-reward ratio is very poor. I absolutely will not chase the high to take the bag; I will patiently wait for it to pull back and stabilize on the right side, or break key support before going short accordingly.
Never catch a falling knife, even if its rebound looks very tempting.特斯拉正在考虑一次重大的产品战略调整，Cybertruck 这款曾经备受期待的电动皮卡，可能要提前结束它的生产周期了。 根据目前披露的计划，马斯克打算从2027年年中开始逐步停止得州工厂的 Cybertruck 生产，并将更多产能转移到 Cybercab 项目。 要知道，Cybertruck 最初曾将年销量25万辆作为目标，但2025年美国市场的实际销量只有约2万辆，距离最初的预期仍有很大差距。 股价方面，特斯拉近期也经历了明显波动。周四大跌10.77%，周五随后反弹约4.2%，收盘价回到358美元附近。 我认为，这次产能调整可能是特斯拉重新分配资源的重要一步。既然产品销量不及预期，继续投入大量产能未必划算，将资源转向更有增长潜力的业务或许是更合理的选择。 但真正的问题在于：Cybercab 能否成为特斯拉下一阶段的增长引擎？ 特斯拉第三季度营收约280亿美元，但营业利润同比减少56%，汽车业务的利润压力已经相当明显。与此同时，自动驾驶技术的发展、测试和商业化落地仍需要持续投入。 Cybertruck 至少已经具备实际销售基础，而 Cybercab 未来能否进入更多市场、实现大规模运营Here's a harsh truth: Most people only hear about the Ahr999 indicator for the first time after they've already lost money.
Today, Bitcoin fell below 76,000, currently at 75,985 USD. The indicator dropped to 0.4310, re-entering the bottom-fishing zone below 0.45. In plain terms — by its own historical standards, it's considered cheap now.
But cheap can be deceiving. From the end of May to mid-August this year, it also stayed below 0.45 for 82 days. So entering the range and hitting the bottom aren't the same thing; there's a two-month-long ECG in between.
I'm not guessing the bottom; I'm planning to split the money for buying $BTC into several parts, buying a portion each time it dips. After all, historically it has stayed below 0.45 for 655 days, so no need to rush. With the midterm elections approaching, Hyperliquid risks are heating up. If the Democrats take Congress, it is highly likely to become a key investigation target. Not an outright ban, but legislative regulation, scrutinizing high-leverage perpetuals, US stock perpetuals, US user access, and HYPE token buybacks. The Bloomberg interview signals this clearly. Jeff changed into a suit to connect with Wall Street and cooperate with ICE, essentially to hedge in advance. Using ICE's compliance channelThe figure of 76,000 USD was rewritten today. Bitcoin is currently priced at 75,985.46 USD, Ahr999 has dropped to 0.4310, falling back below 0.45; the last time it was at this level was before August 20.
The indicator logic is not complicated: it compares the current price with a period's dollar-cost averaging cost and a long-term valuation anchor. The lower the ratio, the cheaper the current price is relative to the historically reasonable buying price. 0.45 is the line drawn by the market. Falling below it does not mean an immediate rise; it means that buying in batches changes from an optional choice to one with statistical advantage.
The time length is worth noting. From May 29 to August 19, the indicator stayed below 0.45 for about 82 days. The last time it entered the bottom-fishing zone was not a single spike but a window of more than two months. Historically, it has accumulated 655 days, which is a rare state and definitely not a short-term signal that ends in a few days.
The driving force is not internal to the crypto circle. The background of this round of decline is the retreat of AI trading in the US stock market, with liquidity being withdrawn from risk assets, putting pressure on Bitcoin. The pressure comes from external capital contraction, not from issues on-chain or in the ecosystem.
The judgment is as follows: long-term dollar-cost averaging investors can act here, but dividing the funds into several parts and spreading them weekly fits its historical pattern better than going all-in at once; for short-term traders, 0.4310 is not a buy signal, it only indicates that the downside space is relatively limited.
A point worth pondering: the indicator tells you whether it is expensive or cheap, but not how cheap is enough. The drop during those 82 days was even deeper. $SNDK
【Thinking about making ultra-short-term trades on SNDK this weekend? I advise you to stop!】
Brothers, if you want to make a little profit over the weekend, I think it's a bit risky. The screenshot shows a "market closed" status, no guidance from the spot market, it's all about contract funds battling it out. Weekend liquidity is extremely poor, and manipulative whales can easily spike the price up or down; you might not earn a single point, and your principal could be gone first.$BTC $ETH Brothers, this time I am bullish on Ethereum. Short-term sharp rises and falls can easily confuse people, so we must look at the weekly chart: in the past year, ETH rarely experienced a continuous 5-week decline with such a small drop; the recent decline has clearly narrowed, structurally resembling a bearish exhaustion. This is the heaviest position I've taken, holding to see a third wave rise. Similarly for BTC, its rhythm is usually half a beat slower than ETH—last night BTC hit a new low, but ETH did not break below 2200, and the relative strength already tells the story. My personal view: don't be scared off by daily noise; after weekly consolidation, ETH is more likely to take off first, followed by BTC. The key is whether ETH can break the previous high with volume.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 whether BlueBird deployment is beginning to translate into direct-to-device revenue through mobile network partners. The evidence needs to connect operational progress to a credible commercial route. Cash burn belongs in the same frame. Partner traction can validate demand, but revenue and funding needs will decide how durable the path to market looks. #ASTSQ3CommercialOutlNo matter how smooth the on-chain transfer story is, it cannot replace the coin listing announcement. TraderGauls is observing the potential Upbit KRW trading pair for $REZ as a catalyst, but it is currently just his speculation and has not been confirmed. I will not directly translate transfers from suspected wallets as the exchange having decided to list.
What can be publicly verified is that the Upbit data page already has a USDT quote for $REZ; this does not mean that a new KRW trading pair has been approved, nor can it confirm wallet ownership or future buying pressure. My personal observation is that the easiest time to chase in is often when evidence gaps are most easily overlooked.
I will wait for the exchange's official announcement, clear trading pair and opening time, combined with real transaction and liquidity assessment, rather than betting on rumors prematurely. If the announcement is delayed or wallet ownership cannot be verified, this catalyst hypothesis cannot be upgraded to an action basis; even if the announcement is made, the risks of a spike and retracement and slippage remain and it will not automatically become a good buying point.
Therefore, this is only kept as a clue to be verified, not listed as a confirmed opportunity, nor providing target gains. Will you first check the official announcement or first check the transaction depth? For discussion purposes only, not investment advice.$ONE rose 57%, but no one can clearly explain why it surged
ONE directly surged 57% today, jumping from 0.0011 to 0.00198, nearly doubling in one day. Trading volume expanded 21 times, from a few million to over twenty million dollars.
Interestingly, after the rise, mainstream media only gave one sentence as the reason, with no confirmed catalyst. So what is the market speculating on? After some research, two explanations were found.
First is transformation. Harmony is preparing to shift fromConclusion first: The most conflicted aspect of $LINK right now isn't the price, but the three sources of funds working against each other.
① Whales are buying. On November 7, a whale address withdrew 57,000 LINK in 4 transactions from Binance within 18 hours, about $612,500, transferring them into its own multisig wallet (OnchainLens 11-07).
② Official reserves are still increasing. The Chainlink official reserve page shows that on November 5, another 94,523.58 LINK were added, bringing the reserve size to 6.57 million LINK, about $70.8 million, with an average cost of $11.26—higher than the current price of $10.81.
③ But ETFs are seeing outflows. On November 6, LINK spot ETFs had net outflows, while on the same day ZEC had net inflows of $1.77 million.
Wallets: 24-hour spot trading volume was 5.62 million LINK (about $60.8 million), 2.2 times the perpetual volume of 2.55 million LINK (about $27.6 million). This drop wasn't caused by leverage blowing up; it was real money changing hands. Perpetual positions stand at 2.169 million LINK (about $23.47 million), with funding rates near 0.01% for almost 8 periods, meaning longs are paying.
10.49 is this week's low, 11.26 is the official cost price. Do you think whales are building positions at 10.8, or distributing around 11?$SNDK Stock Split Countdown: Both Bulls and Bears Await November 20
SanDisk closed at $835.06, rebounding 3.55% in a single day, but still down over 27% in the past week. Intraday volatility ranged from $816 to $912, showing fluctuations have yet to settle.
Less than two weeks remain until the 1-for-8 split takes effect: record date is November 9, new shares issued after market close on November 19, and trading at split-adjusted prices begins November 20. The split itself does not change fundamentals but will attract more retail investor attention to this stock.
Divergence is growing. Consensus among 25 analysts is "Buy," with an average target price of $2,024, but the range spans widely from $870 to $3,000. The bullish case remains data centers; the cautious side points to Kioxia's NAND average price quarterly increase dropping sharply from 70% to 25%, with price softening already seen in consumer channels.
On the eve of the split, it's not about who is more optimistic about AI, but who can better withstand the volatility. $XAG The silver market has recently shown a pattern of volatile rebound. On November 6, silver futures rose about 5.5% for the week, ending a three-week losing streak. However, stronger-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payroll data pushed the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields higher, putting pressure on silver and causing a pullback.
1. Macro factors: The U.S. labor market performed strongly, fueling market expectations for a Fed rate hike in December. A stronger dollar pressures precious metals. Yet geopolitical uncertainties continue to provide safe-haven support for silver.
2. Industrial demand: Silver is widely used in photovoltaics, electronics, automotive, and AI data centers, supporting long-term industrial demand. However, the photovoltaic industry is reducing silver usage per unit product, partially offsetting demand growth.
3. Supply and demand: The World Silver Survey expects the global silver market to experience a supply deficit for the sixth consecutive year in 2026, with an estimated shortfall of about 67 million ounces. The tight supply situation remains fundamentally unchanged.
Overall assessment: The long-term supply-demand structure of silver remains supportive, but short-term fluctuations are heavily influenced by the dollar, interest rate expectations, and changes in industrial demand, so market volatility may continue. Going forward, focus on U.S. inflation data, Fed policy, and global silver inventory changes. #日银加息预期升温，日元空头平仓风险上升 #After the US stock market crash, tech stocks rebounded, but the Nasdaq weekly chart still fell about 3.4%
The Democrats scared AI with one shout, and Goldman Sachs immediately raised its forecast?
The incoming Texas governor called for a “pause on data centers,” and the Nasdaq dropped 6% in a single week, the AI momentum index recorded the fifth largest drop in history, and data center CDS premiums soared to a record high.
As a result, Goldman Sachs turned around and raised its 2026 construction spending forecast from 67 billion to 80 billion, 2027 to 100 billion, and for the first time gave a 125 billion forecast for 2028.
In short, the market is trading on “political noise,” while Goldman Sachs is calculating the “money already spent.” The 86GW project has already broken ground, corresponding to $300 billion in spending, of which $200 billion has yet to be spent.
These five swing states together account for 42% of the capacity under construction, with Texas alone accounting for 26%, but Goldman Sachs insists: the pause order is a delay, not a termination.
Yesterday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded 4.2%, Nvidia +2.78%, but US power company AEP only fell slightly by 0.19%, not really joining the rally. Chip stocks are recovering from overselling, not clearing regulatory risks.
What really needs attention are those highly leveraged data center developers, with rising financing costs and leases that may be torn up; this is the first thing likely to explode in this round of regulatory tightening.#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 NVDA only recovered 27% of Thursday's plunge on Friday; I won't chase this rebound yet.
On Thursday, NVDA dropped 9.3% in a single day, closing at $181.60, with an intraday low of $181.46.
On Friday, it closed at $186.64, up 2.8%, with a trading volume 1.59 times the 20-day average.
It only recovered about 27% of Thursday's decline; SOXX rose 3.5%, also recovering only about a quarter.
The S&P 500 fell 2.7% this week, marking the worst week since June.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, exceeding expectations, pushing the probability of a rate hike in December to about 77%.
This is more of an oversold rebound, insufficient to confirm a trend reversal.
The stock price remains below the MA200 at 204.67, MA20 at 211.55, and MA50 at 219.81.
Increased volume indicates significant divergence, not necessarily a buying advantage.
Watch signals: hold above 194.90 (Friday's high), then see if it can reclaim 200.
Breaking below 181.46 (Thursday's low) would invalidate this rebound.
Open your position list, verify Nvidia's key price levels, and set your observation stop-loss accordingly.
$NVDA $BTC $ETH #احتياطي Huge cash reserve for Berkshire, the financial report will reveal the latest developments
Earnings season:
Investors are awaiting the "Berkshire Hathaway" report to monitor the size of its huge cash reserve. Historically, Warren Buffett's cash accumulation reflects his caution about inflated stock valuations, while its decline means seizing new opportunities. Whale movements are always the true compass for the next market direction!$TEAM
Significant pullback after earnings report, is Atlassian cheap now?
Atlassian's official investor page shows that on November 6th, the US stock market closed down about 16%, following the release of quarterly results the previous day. The large volatility indicates an expanded gap in expectations; value cannot be judged solely by the drop.
Introducing AI into collaboration software requires proving that customers are willing to continue paying, not just increasing trials. Cloud migration and new features may also initially drive up infrastructure and sales costs.
I will wait for the combined validation of retention, paid expansion, and profit expectations. If operating metrics improve while valuation falls, the research value increases; if growth expectations continue to be revised downward, prices below yesterday's may still contain overly high expectations. The biggest highlight of Berkshire's earnings report is not the absolute thickness of the ¥358 billion cash reserve, but that it has finally started to thin out — Abel is using this money to "test prices" for assets, rather than waiting for a perfect crash.
The explanation is twofold. In terms of trajectory, cash dropped from a Q1 peak of ¥397.4 billion to ¥365.5 billion in Q2, with Q3 Visible Alpha expected to slide further to ¥358 billion. Buybacks also plunged sharply from ¥4.5 billion in Q2 to an expected roughly ¥1.6 billion — cash is moving, but the steps are very restrained.
In terms of actions, Abel completed two acquisitions this year: OxyChem and Taylor Morrison, spending a total of only $16.5 billion, accounting for 4.5% of Q2 cash. The real signal is not in scale, but in direction: he invested over $10 billion in Alphabet and $930 million in Bending Spoons, completing Berkshire's largest-ever AI-themed bet. However, Alphabet has dropped more than 24% since June, so this position is currently at a floating loss.
Therefore, what this earnings report should focus on is not "how much cash is left," but "how much uncertainty Abel is willing to pay for." Hoarding cash is Buffett's legacy; spending it is Abel's pricing — the first AI tuition has already been paid, and next we will see if he dares to add a second payment amid the decline.
#伯克希尔巨额现金储备，财报将披露最新动向 SPACEX expects annual revenue of $500 billion🔥
Elon Musk is betting on a space business empire and has released another astonishing figure: SpaceX is expected to exceed $500 billion in annualized revenue by December 2027, and even considers $1 trillion not impossible.
What does this mean?
Wall Street analysts currently estimate SpaceX's full-year revenue in 2027 to be about $180 billion.
Note, one is annualized revenue for December, the other is full-year revenue, so they can't be directly equated, but Musk's target remains quite aggressive.
His ambition has long been more than just rocket launches.
Starlink satellite internet, commercial spaceflight, and AI infrastructure are forming a new business empire.
Of course, $500 billion is a forecast, not a performance commitment.
The story can be big, but ultimately it depends on whether revenue, profit, and cash flow can be realized.
$SPCX Mining difficulty sitting below its peak for 374 straight days — the longest stretch ever. 🟠
Miners are earning less and difficulty isn't chasing price down. Support: $75,000. Resistance: $76,371, then $79,000.
My take: when the network stops pushing difficulty higher, it means the weak miners already left. The floor gets stronger, not weaker.
Does 374 days below peak make you more bullish or more careful? 👇
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #OKXOrbitKORU的“磨损”，根源不在于物理摩擦，而在于其每日重置（Daily Reset）的杠杆结构本身。 它到底是什么 KORU的目标是追求MSCI Korea 25/50指数单日表现的300%，注意关键词是“单日”。它不承诺在更长的持有期内提供指数累计涨幅的3倍。 磨损的核心机制：每日重置与复利路径 磨损的产生，源于每日再平衡与复利的数学效应。 单日有效，长期背离：每个交易日结束后，KORU会重置杠杆，确保第二天的3倍敞口对应的是新的净值基数。你的长期回报是无数个“单日3倍回报”复利相乘的结果，而非指数累计涨幅的简单3倍。 · 震荡市中的“损耗陷阱”：数学上，先跌后涨相同的百分比，无法回到原点（跌50%需涨100%才能回本）。杠杆放大了跌幅，导致恢复所需的涨幅呈指数级增加。在指数反复震荡、最终回到原点时，KORU的净值可能已大幅缩水。SEC文件明确警示：即使指数在一段时间后收平，KORU也可能亏钱。 磨损有多严重：数据与现实 波动率是收益的“隐形杀手”：SEC文件指出，在指数高波动时期，波动率本身对基金回报的影响，可能和指数涨跌的影响一样大，甚至更大。数据显示KORU的波动率可高达92.2This week, the Nasdaq dropped 3.4%, so I will probably be staying up late again next week.
There are just three key points: the October CPI at 9:30 PM on Tuesday, the earnings reports of Cisco and Applied Materials after the market closes on Thursday, and then Nvidia's earnings on 11/17, with options implied volatility around ±10.5%.
Last week's nonfarm payrolls pushed up the December rate hike expectations again. If the CPI comes in hotter, tech stocks might face another wave of pressure. My approach: no adding positions before the data, wait for the CPI to settle before deciding.
Are you holding on next week, or going flat to watch?
$NVDA $QQQ
#USStocks #USStocksLostOver2TrillionOvernightSeveralHedgeFundsFaceLiquidation
Just my personal view, not advice$ONE Observation: Over 70% surge in 24 hours, biggest risk is migration hype
Current price of ONE is about 0.001835, up approximately 71.8% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of about $4.07 million, intraday high at 0.001969 and low at 0.001064
First, the biggest risk: the old chain has been shut down, but the price is still being driven by the shutdown narrative. The Block reported that Harmony sunsetted its L1 citing security threats and migrated to Ethereum ERC-20, with the mainnet expected to stop producing blocks around September 10
On November 18, the official explorer will also be permanently closed. TokenPost stated that after explorer.harmony.one shuts down, migrate.country will only retain records from 2025 onward, so data before 2025 needs to be exported in advance
Currently, about $4 million in trading volume supports the over 70% price increase. Liquidity is thin and the pullback is quick. The rise is due to speculative aftershocks of the migration, not new revenue or new product launches BTC holding above 75,000 is just the beginning! The truly dangerous signals have been overlooked by many.
The crypto market is undergoing a risk appetite contraction. On November 6, BTC hit a low of 74,780 USD, with ETH simultaneously approaching 2,200 USD. In the past 24 hours, about 1.05 billion USD worth of liquidations occurred across the network, with long positions accounting for about 88%, indicating that this round of decline is not only due to spot selling but also concentrated leverage clearing.
More worrisome is the capital side. The US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about 412 million USD on the same day (some fund data is still incomplete), marking two consecutive days of net outflows. Meanwhile, AI infrastructure investment returns and data center regulatory expectations triggered a sell-off in tech stocks, causing a clear correlation between the Nasdaq and crypto assets.
ETH faces dual pressure: on November 6, the spot ETH ETF had a net outflow close to 100 million USD, coupled with the delay of the Glamsterdam upgrade test, putting short-term market confidence under pressure.
My judgment: key levels to watch are 75,000 USD for BTC and 2,200 USD for ETH. Holding support only indicates temporary relief of selling pressure; the real reversal signal should be ETF capital inflows, strengthened spot buying, and price reclaiming key resistance. Until the capital returns, rebounds should still be approached with caution. $BTC $ETH #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 NVIDIA $NVDA's upcoming earnings report will be crucial. Whether AI-related concepts can support such a large hardware market will face the ultimate test. From another perspective, the US stock market needs these tech stocks to hold the front line.
My judgment is that NVIDIA's earnings report this time will most likely exceed expectations, but the subsequent stock price is uncertain. The guidance for the next quarter's performance is very important.
NVIDIA is expected to release its fiscal year 2027 third-quarter earnings report after the US market closes on November 17. Currently, Wall Street consensus expects revenue of about $108.98 billion and adjusted earnings per share of about $2.47, with year-over-year growth rates around 90%.
I am optimistic about exceeding expectations for three main reasons.
First, there is no obvious sign of cooling in AI computing power demand for now. Cloud computing giants like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon continue to invest in AI infrastructure, and NVIDIA's data center business remains the core growth engine.
Second, last quarter's data already gave a strong signal. Revenue was $96.221 billion, up 106% year-over-year, with data center revenue reaching $89 billion and gross margin maintained at 75%.
Third, Blackwell continues to scale up, and the next-generation Vera Rubin platform is also advancing toward mass production. Product iteration remains an important advantage for NVIDIA.
What do you think? Can NVIDIA continue to break Wall Street expectations this time, or has the AI rally already priced in this earnings report in advance?
#英伟达拟以129.3亿美元收购HuggingFace 70% of $BTC liquidations in the past 24 hours were long positions ≠ the big drop is still ahead
According to CoinGlass at 8 PM Beijing time tonight, the top 20 liquidated assets in the past 24 hours totaled $138 million, with longs accounting for 72.81%.
BTC alone liquidated $51.82 million, 80% of which were longs.
Most of these longs were wiped out by that spike last night.
On the night when the US October non-farm payrolls far exceeded expectations, OKEx perpetual contracts plunged from 76351 to 74800.
In the following 20 hours, the price fluctuated between 75370 and 76220, now around 75960.
The funding rate is 0.0037%, almost zero.
After the clustered leveraged longs at one price level were liquidated, neither side is particularly crowded on the exchange.
Where it goes next depends on who adds leverage back first, not on the $50 million-plus already liquidated.Is Bitcoin really suitable for dollar-cost averaging?
First, the conclusion: it's not that it's unsuitable, but most people can't endure until the day it becomes suitable.
Long-term dollar-cost averaging returns are indeed impressive: starting from 2015, investing $100 monthly, by May 2026 it would be about $630,000, a return of +4,515%. Even starting from the 2021 peak, dollar-cost averaging still outperforms lump-sum investment.
But behind these attractive numbers lies extreme drawdown: this strategy had a maximum drawdown of -76.72% in 2022, and historically there have been deep drops of 86%, 84%, and 77%. The "smile curve" theory of dollar-cost averaging holds, but in practice, it requires you to keep buying even when your account is halved repeatedly.
Moreover, in short cycles, lump-sum investment often outperforms dollar-cost averaging; the advantage of dollar-cost averaging only appears after fully traversing a complete bull and bear cycle. Bitcoin is a strong cyclical asset, and mechanical dollar-cost averaging does not significantly reduce unrealized losses during bear markets.
Therefore, it only suits two types of people: those with spare money that can span entire bull and bear cycles, and those psychologically able to endure over 70% unrealized losses without breaking discipline.
In short: the contradiction of dollar-cost averaging Bitcoin is not about "whether it can make money," but about "whether you are still there before dawn." $BTC Bitcoin recent breakdown below the $76K 50-week EMA has put the market under pressure.
Around $1.1B in long liquidations and ETF outflows have added to the selling pressure, with $73K and $68K now key downside levels.
However, historical data offers another perspective: 5 of 9 similar EMA breakdowns since 2019 saw $BTC trading higher 12 weeks later.
This could be a leverage flush rather than the start of a deeper bear market. The weekly close and spot ETF flows deserve close attention. Two honest truths about regulation: The CLARITY Act's progress being stalled does not mean the direction has changed. Compliance is an issue both US parties are competing over; a one-quarter delay in scheduling is a different matter from this. What really deserves attention is the 401(k) rule entering final review—that is the part that could bring long-term incremental funds to BTC. Once that channel opens, the demand structure for mainstream coins will be completely different from the past two years. So my approach is to separate them: in the short term, act only according to current sentiment and capital flow, and don't use long-term policy narratives to hold current positions; in the mid-term, focus research on the rule texts and the progress of institutional access—these things rely on clause implementation, not slogans. Before policy news is officially implemented, the market usually falls first out of caution; after the drop, look back—often it's just a change in the timeline, not the logic. Do you now treat regulation as a risk or as a catalyst? #美国加密监管：《CLARITY法案》推进受阻，401(k)规则进入最终审查 $BTC Continuous net outflows from ETFs, why hasn't BTC slowed down?
I'm more concerned about the divergence between capital and price: institutional channels are flowing out, but the market temporarily holds steady, so it can't be directly considered bullish.
According to Farside data, on November 6, US spot BTC ETFs had a net outflow of $411.9 million, marking the second consecutive day of outflows; the cumulative outflow this week is about $1.3 billion.
$BTC is around $76,104, up 0.33% in 24 hours, with an intraday low of $75,790; open interest across 5 exchanges is about $17.17 billion, with an 8-hour funding rate of +0.0017%. The price hasn't dropped, but that doesn't mean the ETF selling pressure has been offset by new buying.
$ETH is around $2,247, up 0.37%, with an intraday low of $2,238.7; open interest is about $11.76 billion, funding rate +0.0056%. Relatively stronger, but with higher funding rates, meaning higher long position costs.
Looking horizontally, ETH is more resilient, while BTC bears more direct ETF flow pressure; a positive funding rate does not equal an increase in net longs.
First, let's see if BTC can hold $75,790, then observe whether ETF outflows narrow. If large outflows continue and the intraday low is broken, the divergence may turn into selling pressure.
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 #BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 Reuters’ report of an $11B initial OpenAI funding tranche at roughly a $1.25T valuation, below earlier targets, puts a useful constraint on the AI financing story. Capital is still arriving, but the simultaneous infrastructure borrowing by major tech groups suggests investors will increasingly test whether funding scale can keep outrunning valuation discipline.
#OpenAI11BFunding "Smart Money Influencer Weekly Review" Issue 16 · MANSOOR, an influencer who only trades gold, missed three trades in a row that night, but six days later made one trade that returned six times the profit
Losing money on your own trades? It's not that you're not trying hard enough, you just lack a reliable reference. Every week, we help you evaluate well-known influencers across the internet, with real performance and data to back it up.
On the night of October 26 at 10 PM, MANSOOR placed a short gold trade but hit the stop loss within half an hour. That day, he had three consecutive trades, none of which lasted past the next day. In the end, he wrote a line himself: "Lost three portions today."
But if you stopped following him that night, you'd have missed the two most profitable trades. In half a month, he issued twenty signals, and nineteen of them were entries. Starting with 10,000 yuan and risking only 1% of principal per trade, it grew to 11,400 yuan, a 14% increase. The trade on November 2 went from 3894 to 3960, and the one on November 3 was similar—both trades returned over six times the risk.
He doesn't win often, but one win covers several losses. He only trades gold, one trade every one to two days, with stop losses set at around a dozen dollars, no adding to positions or averaging down. Targets are set far away, with risk multiples from three to fifteen times. He will call to move stop to breakeven or close half first—you have to follow his instructions.
Suitable for those who can check their phone twice a day and accept being wrong six times out of ten; if you want every trade to be right, don't follow him.
Overall, this person's trades are worth following. Entries are well-timed, and profits are substantial when winning. He doesn't need every trade to be right, just not to exit too early when winning.
Signals from many influencers are synchronized to you in real time. What is public is just the tip of the iceberg.Nonfarm payrolls stronger than expected, but crypto prices did not weaken
This nonfarm report far exceeded expectations, yet crypto prices did not reverse accordingly, an interesting contrast.
October added 165,000 nonfarm jobs, well above the expected 65,000, with unemployment dropping to 4.1%; the market has pushed December rate hike bets close to 80%.
$BTC around $76,104, +0.33% in 24 hours, daily low at 75,790; open interest across 5 exchanges about $17.17 billion, 8-hour funding rate +0.0017%. Price is stable, funding rate low, currently no sign of leveraged long chasing.
$ETH around $2,247, +0.37%, daily low at 2,238.7; open interest about $11.76 billion, funding rate +0.0056%. Performance slightly stronger, but position cost higher than BTC, still needs spot support.
$SOL around $90.17, +0.03%, daily low at 89.76; open interest about $1.94 billion, funding rate +0.0051%. Elasticity is weak, risk appetite has not expanded.
ETH is strongest, SOL weakest, all three coins have small gains. If US Treasury yields continue to rise and BTC falls below 75,790, hawkish pressure should be guarded against; only breaking above 76,142 with spot volume increase can be considered a true hold.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Micron at $692, are you scared away?
Falling from 1255 to 692, halving in just 5 months—everyone is shouting "AI bubble burst, memory cycle peaked." Just last Friday, a high-volume bullish candle rebounded 5%, RSI dropped to the 30 oversold zone, and the P/E ratio compressed to 3.7x. So is this wave a "panic sell-off at the peak of the cycle stocks" or "a good company being emotionally oversold"?
Let's look at the surface first: bad news hit the stock, but earnings are exploding.
Down over 30% in the past month, down 22% in the past week, mid-November saw the semiconductor sector collectively dive, and Micron once plunged 17.5% in a single day. Everyone is blaming: AI capital expenditure cooling, Taiwan factory shutdowns, policy changes after elections.
But if you glance back at the earnings report: FY2026 revenue $133.2 billion, up 256% year-over-year; gross margin 86%; Q4 quarterly revenue $54.2 billion, up 379% year-over-year. Earnings grew 2.5 times, stock price dropped 45%—the market isn’t pricing the present, it’s pricing fear.
First thing: everyone is focused on "AI capital expenditure slowdown" but ignoring that memory is selling the shovels.
Micron doesn’t make AI chips; it sells HBM memory—every NVIDIA GPU needs several Micron HBMs plugged in.
Whether data centers get built is up to cloud providers; but as long as AI runs, memory will always be in shortage. Multiple institutions judge: the memory price upcycle will last at least until 2027 or even the first half of 2028.
US election worries, Taiwan factory labor disputes—these are "news," not "fundamentals."
The pits created by news are often where smart money picks up chips.
Second thing: a 3.7x P/E ratio, and you’re telling me it’s a bubble?
Micron’s current forward P/E is only 3.7-4x. What does that mean?
A company with revenue up 256% year-over-year, 86% gross margin, and still buying back shares, the market is only willing to give it less than 4 times forward earnings.
The market has already priced in "AI capital expenditure halving + memory price collapse + intensified competition." As long as any one of these doesn’t happen, this valuation is a joke.
Moreover, starting December, Micron can resume large-scale buybacks, customer strategic agreements cover a significant revenue share, and it has received a large amount of prepayments—order visibility is solid, not just wishful thinking.
Third thing: technicals tell you it’s struggling in the oversold zone.
Weekly chart: from the June high of 1255, a descending channel formed, currently a mid-term correction.
Daily chart: after consecutive big bearish candles, Friday saw a high-volume bullish candle, but moving averages are still bearish (EMA20/50/200 all pressing from above).
Daily RSI dropped near or below 30—clear demand for an oversold rebound.
Support: 670-680 (intraday low) → 650-660 (channel lower edge) → 600 (extreme)
Resistance: 710-725 (rebound high) → 750 → 850+
Short-term oversold rebound is expected, but don’t mistake the rebound for a bull market before the trend reverses.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
FY2026 revenue up 256%, gross margin 86%, explosive earnings
Forward P/E only 3.7-4x, valuation extremely compressed
Memory cycle extends to 2027-2028, HBM supply-demand tight
Buybacks resume in December + customer prepayments, strong visibility
RSI oversold, 5% volume rebound on Friday
On the other side:
45% drop from ATH, trend still bearish
Post-election uncertainty in data center approvals/energy/trade policies
Taiwan Fab 11E labor disputes, production execution risks
Samsung/SK Hynix HBM competition intensifies
Break below 650, channel target revised down to 600 or lower
Trading strategy
Short-term traders (1-5 days):
Don’t chase highs. Wait for a pullback to 680-670 to stabilize with volume before lightly going long, stop loss below 660, target 710-725 to take half profits. If volume breaks below 670, flip to light short targeting 650, stop loss 690. Leverage should not exceed 5-10x; this thing is more volatile than you think.
Swing traders (1-4 weeks):
Bull plan: hold above 650 + add on break above 720, target 850-900, stop loss 620. Bear plan: confirm break below 650, target 600-550, stop loss 680.
Long-term view:
Build positions gradually below 650, spot or low leverage. If fundamentals don’t worsen (next quarter guidance + memory prices), hold with a target above 1000. An AI core asset at 3.7x P/E, time is on your side.
Micron now is like NVIDIA in 2022—
99% of people thought "semiconductor cycle peaked, AI is a scam," but it went from 150 to over 1000.
$BTC $ETH $MU #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4%
Yesterday, the US stock market experienced a thrilling session.
After the previous round of collective sell-off, tech stocks finally saw a rebound, and market sentiment seemed to ease.
But one data point is worth noting: the Nasdaq weekly chart still fell about 3.4%.
What does this mean?
I believe the biggest risk now is not that the market will continue to fall, but the rebound illusion created for investors after the crash.
Especially in the semiconductor sector.
NVIDIA, SanDisk, and other AI industry chain stocks have already seen considerable gains. Once the market starts to reprice tech stock valuations, the capital outflow could be faster than expected.
Of course, a technical rebound after a crash is normal, but a rebound and a reversal are two different things.
Next, I am paying more attention to three signals:
Can the Nasdaq regain and hold key levels?
Can the semiconductor sector attract capital inflows again?
Can trading volume continue to expand during the rebound?
If this is just short-covering after the decline, then this rebound might only be the start of the next wave of volatility.
Personal view: No rush to chase the rally or bottom-fish now. Let's first see if the market can prove itself.$CT just finished scraping the last bit of cold rice, seeing CT continuously pulling big bullish candles, I instinctively wanted to short it, but after glancing at the data below, I forced myself to hold back!
【Hardcore Review】
From the deep pit at 0.114 with a V-shaped reversal, the 1-hour MACD shows a high-level golden cross, and the red bars keep expanding, indicating extremely aggressive bulls. But now the price has reached the resistance zone of the previous dense trading area, with heavy trapped positions above.
The most critical is the chip data: the bulls' proportion has directly soared to 64.98%, with a long-short ratio of 1.86! A bunch of retail investors see the rise and are blindly chasing the highs. The manipulative whales would never kindly let these 70% profit; most likely, they will push it up sharply again to blow out the shorts, lure the bulls in, and then reverse to smash the market.
【My Trading Rule】
At this position, the risk-reward ratio is extremely poor. I absolutely will not chase the highs nor blindly try to top-fish on the left side. I patiently wait for confirmation of stagnation at the upper resistance, and when a clear top pattern appears on the right side, I will then follow the trend to short and take the most certain pullback profits.
Don't catch the retail investors' flying knives; wait for the main force to put the noose around their necks themselves.The door to retirement accounts has moved forward half a step—but it’s not open yet.
The U.S. Department of Labor has sent the final rule allowing alternative assets (including crypto) into 401(k) plans to the White House OIRA for review (registration around 11/5–11/6). The core is to provide fiduciaries with a procedural safe harbor: performance, fees, liquidity, valuation, benchmarks, complexity—following the process can reduce litigation risk.
The key point: approval ≠ BTC appearing immediately on every 401(k) menu, nor ≠ mandatory listing, nor ≠ randomly adding altcoins. More likely, ETFs or managed products will appear first. The stance: media + OIRA process disclosure; policy progress ≠ market directive. What type of product do you think will appear first once the door truly opens? Discuss in the comments.
$BTC $ETH #AI Giant Financing Watch: OpenAI Completes $11 Billion Financing, Tech Companies Continue Bond Issuance Wave
The boss has something to say
I came across the news about OpenAI's financing, and the first thing I looked at was the numbers comparison: Reuters reported that OpenAI's first tranche delivered $11 billion, with a valuation of about 1.25 trillion, lower than the previously discussed target; the community reminded that the original plan was $30 billion. SoftBank and UAE's MGX participated, and the UAE consortium is expected to become the largest investor. On the other hand, Microsoft and Meta together issued $40 billion in bonds, Oracle raised another $20 billion, all burning money for AI infrastructure.
My interpretation is: this is the financial reality of the AI bubble—primary market demand is weakening, OpenAI's financing amount was cut to one-third of the original plan, and the valuation was revised down from 2 trillion; meanwhile, the secondary bond issuance wave is accelerating, SoftBank is betting on OpenAI with junk bonds yielding 10%, and CDS rose to 432 basis points. Money is still flowing into AI, but the structure has changed: from equity financing to debt financing, shifting risk from investors to creditors. For the crypto circle, this is another gauge of AI risk appetite, moving in the same direction as BTC in the short term but not directly driving it.
BTC current price is about 74,800, sideways on Saturday. My approach: 75,000 remains resistance, looking down to 73,000; I listen to this kind of financing news but keep my position unchanged. Waiting for Monday's US stock market open and continuous positive ETF net inflows before considering adding positions.
The above analysis is time-sensitive, everyone please stay safe. $BTC $ETH $ZEC There was a piece of data I had to read twice to fully grasp: Bitcoin mining difficulty hasn't returned to its historical peak for 374 days, the longest stretch ever, even longer than the period after the 2011 crash.
To put it simply, a drop in difficulty means miners have shut down their machines. In other words, throughout this year, some have been quietly pulling the plug.
But looking at it from another angle, those still mining have effectively diluted their costs. Miners who shut down when difficulty dropped to 124.93T in June are probably kicking themselves now.
It's said that on November 13, difficulty will drop another 3.7%, marking yet another round of elimination. The harsh reality in $BTC mining is not about who earns more, but who has cheaper electricity.A little-noticed fact: Bitcoin mining difficulty has remained below the peak of 155.97T on October 29, 2025, for 374 consecutive days, setting a new historical record. This surpasses the 364 days after the 2011 crash and also exceeds the 253 days following China's mining ban in 2021.
Let's look at the data. In mid-June 2026, difficulty dropped to 124.93T, about 20% below the peak; it rebounded to 148.36T in October; Mempool.space expects another drop of about 3.7% around November 13.
The mechanism is not complicated. Difficulty follows hash rate: when prices are poor, miners shut down, hash rate exits, difficulty adjusts downward, and the remaining miners' unit costs are diluted. So the reason difficulty hasn't returned to the peak for a long time is essentially that this cycle lacks enough new hash power willing to enter at the old prices.
Economist Saifedean Ammous says this duration surpasses 95% of the price retracements after 2011 and the period of China's mining ban, representing a new world for Bitcoin mining. Translated into trading terms: the miner side has already cleared a round, and the marginal selling pressure of $BTC is smaller than in 2021.
But a drop in difficulty does not equal bullishness. It only indicates that the supply side is no longer worsening; the direction still depends on the demand side. Worth watching is: after the 3.7% drop on November 13, if the hash rate still doesn't return, then miners have truly accepted it.The stronger the non-farm payrolls, the more dangerous BTC becomes? What the market truly fears is a reversal in interest rate expectations
US October non-farm payrolls delivered better-than-expected results: 165,000 new jobs added, far above the expected 65,000; unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year. More notably, August and September employment data were revised upward by a total of 84,000.
This means the US labor market remains resilient, leaving room for the Federal Reserve to continue tightening policy. After the non-farm payroll release, market bets on a December rate hike rose to about 80%, the dollar strengthened, and US Treasury yields climbed.
For BTC and ETH, the pressure is not just from the data itself but from the market repricing: rate cut expectations pushed back, dollar liquidity tightening, and risk asset valuations under pressure. BTC briefly dipped to $74,800, and ETH weakened in tandem.
However, it is important to note that strong non-farm payrolls do not mean a rate hike is set in stone. Subsequent inflation data and Federal Reserve statements will still change expectations. In the short term, focus on the dollar, US Treasury yields, and BTC support around $74,000; do not rashly bottom-fish based solely on overselling before the trend stabilizes. $BTC #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 BTC is at 76000, ETH stuck at 2242, my view hasn't changed: no rush to enter the market.
Candlestick charts can depict a bottoming pattern, but funding rates reveal the true sentiment. A genuine reversal requires crowded shorts, deeply negative funding rates, panic sellers handing over chips, and a short squeeze with enough momentum. Currently, funding rates are mildly positive, neither bulls nor bears are cornered, no capitulation, no extreme panic, the market is just lukewarm.
This is not the bottom, just a breather in a prolonged downtrend.
Bottoms are always the result of chip battles, when bulls' stop losses are repeatedly harvested and bears' confidence swells and crowds together, funding rates turn deep red, and the fuel for a rebound is ready. Without enough sell-off to clear the market, even a pull-up is just a muted pulse.
The biggest taboo in bottom fishing is rushing in. Those who run fast mostly catch falling knives; those who stay patient have a chance to get chips with good cost-performance. I'd rather quietly observe from the sidelines than exhaust all my bullets in a downtrend.
The market won't reward those eager to bottom fish but will severely punish those heavily positioned halfway down the slope.
Wait for a clear signal from the funding rates before making a move; it's never too late.
No rush, keep waiting.
⚠️ Information shared is not investment advice
$BTC $ETH SNDK has been hammered for several days in a row, and it surprisingly didn't stop over the weekend, which is a bit heartbreaking to watch. With such a drop, is it just an emotional flood, or is someone quietly accumulating chips? What I'm focusing on is not the bearish candlestick itself, but the fact that the trading volume has shrunk to be as "small" as the price, showing a volume-price divergence at the low level. This pattern usually indicates that selling pressure is easing, fewer people are willing to sell, but the buying side hasn't rushed to show strength either, which is a typical late-stage emotional phase. The problem is, the continued hammering over the weekend is likely not spot market sentiment, but a liquidity test during the thinnest period, where sparse order books allow a few trades to push the price down ugly. What the market is actually trading now is not whether SNDK as a company is good or not, but "whether the most fragile positions can still hold." Once this expectation is priced in early, Monday's opening reaction will be more honest than the weekend's candlesticks. The bullish path is: volume continues to shrink, the low-level divergence holds, and after the passive selling pressure over the weekend is digested, the price has a chance to first recover above psychological levels, with sentiment warming up to help small-cap stocks in the same sector catch a breather. The bearish risk is also clear: if the weekend's sell-off is accompanied by volume expansion, it means it's not just a shakeout but real selling, then the low-level divergence is a false signal, and Monday may see a further drop, with risk appetite shrinking from individual tokens back to mainstream coins, delaying the overall rebound rhythm of altcoins. If BTC and ETH remain stable over the weekend, the sharp drop in single tokens like SNDK is more likely a localized event rather than a shift in overall risk appetite; conversely, if mainstream coins also weaken together, thenIf you want to bottom-fish $xKORU, Ajian's advice is to hold off for now. KOSPI closed down 6.02% on Friday despite a 20-minute trading halt, Samsung $SAMSUNG dropped 6.35%, Hynix $xSKHY fell 10.44%, and foreign investors sold off 2.8 trillion KRW in a single day. So the current situation is that no one can prove the bottom is in, and the premise of bottom-fishing is that the bottom has been reached. Even if you can't buy at the lowest point, at least don't catch a falling knife halfway up the slope 🤧