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The latest close was $835, a single-day rebound of 3.55%, but it has dropped 27% over the past week. The intraday high reached 912, the low 816, with a nearly $100 amplitude, indicating that neither bulls nor bears have convinced the other. The earnings report is indeed ridiculously strong: quarterly revenue of 11 billion, a year-over-year increase of 378%, a gross margin of 85%, and net profit of 8.1 billion. Data center business revenue increased nearly 17 times. But the market's concern is not whether it is currently profitable, but whether the 85% gross margin signals a cyclical peak. The history of storage chips has repeatedly taught us: when gross margins reach this level, it often means the turning point is near. Another variable is the 8-for-1 stock split effective November 20. The split does not change market capitalization, but against the backdrop of the stock price falling from 2354 to 835, it is easily interpreted as a "high-level market cap management" move rather than a pure positive. So the current situation is very clear: fundamentals tell you "I'm very cheap," technicals tell you "Don't catch a falling knife." $900 is the first resistance above; it touched 912 on Friday but was pushed back, indicating real selling pressure. The short-term support zone is between 780 and 800; if broken, look to 700. My view is simple: before the stock split takes effect, I won't make market decisions. Wait until around November 20 when the chip structure reshuffles, and see if $900 can be reclaimed; that is more meaningful than guessing the bottom now. No need to watch over the weekend; it won't run away. #SanDisk #TechStocksReboundAfterUSStockCrash, Nasdaq weekly still down about 3.4% This non-farm payroll report exceeded expectations across the board: new jobs, wages, and unemployment rate all strengthened, previous values were revised up, the market immediately raised the December rate hike expectations, the dollar surged, and risk assets came under pressure.
I think the single-month data is just a pulse and can't directly determine the big trend; the real core is still to watch the CPI on the 10th.
The market also shows this: the news triggered only a sharp drop, not a sustained crash, with significant capital divergence. Don't chase the dip. Next, just focus on inflation and key support levels.Bitcoin mining difficulty hasn't refreshed its all-time high for 374 days. The peak stayed at 155.97T on October 29, 2025, and every adjustment since then hasn't surpassed it, exceeding the 364 days during the 2011 crash period.
The pattern is also different. In June 2026, difficulty dropped to 124.93T, a single drop of 10.09%, about 20% below the peak. Then in October, two increases of 5.92% and 5.54% pulled it back to 148.36T, just 4.9% shy of the record. The seven-day hashrate returned to 1 ZH/s in late October, after nearly eight months below that level.
Difficulty not breaking the peak doesn't mean the network is weakening. Blocks are still produced every ten minutes, and hashrate is still rising. The mechanism is that difficulty is pushed by hashrate; now that hashrate has returned but difficulty hasn't caught up, it indicates new machines are more efficient, or the incremental hashrate is being drawn away by other sectors.
Mining companies' ledgers are more direct. Riot sold $750 million worth of Bitcoin, Hut 8 sold $250 million, Keel cleared $192 million from its treasury, Terawulf and IREN shifted collateral to AI. BTC is slightly below $76,000, a price level that can't sustain expansion.
In the short term, looking at the adjustment on November 13, another 3.7% drop is expected. The drop gives miners a breather, but the drop itself also indicates some are still shutting down.
One detail: hashrate returned to 1 ZH/s, but difficulty is still suppressed—where did the extra hashrate go?As of November 6, Eastern US time, DOGE spot funds have had zero inflows or outflows for 18 consecutive trading days
This does not mean institutions are waiting on the sidelines to buy the dip
The cumulative net inflow is only about $15.05 million, with net assets around $11.92 million
This accounts for about 0.10% of the market cap — being inactive for so long seems more like no one is using it, rather than holding back orders
$DOGEOn November 6, the U.S. stock market lost about $3 trillion in market value in a single day. This was not an ordinary pullback but a cross-asset liquidity squeeze. $BTC had already been dragged down by news of sell-offs related to Trump-associated media, leaving risk assets with almost nowhere to hide. What is truly worth cautioning about is the pattern of the decline: the Nasdaq fell 11.9% from its peak, officially entering a technical correction; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 12.5% in one day, marking its largest single-day drop since March 2020; the three major indices simultaneously recorded their worst performance since April. Semiconductors are the pricing core of this AI narrative; their initial collapse indicates that funds are not rotating but deleveraging. $SNDK dropped to around $800, serving as a sample of high-valuation assets being prioritized for liquidation amid liquidity contraction. The mainstream market narrative still interprets this decline as a "normal breath after an overextension," but I believe the crowd underestimates its transmission path. Margin pressure on the equity side will transmit through market makers' balance sheets to the crypto market. The pullbacks of $BTC and $ETH are not isolated events but two ends of the same liquidity chain. When high-beta sectors like semiconductors lead the decline, crypto assets find it difficult to have independent rallies, and the elasticity of highly volatile assets like $SOL and $HYPE will also be suppressed. In the medium term, tightening expectations have not been fully priced in. "Don't rush to catch a falling knife" fits the current structure better than "bottom fishing." The real confirmation signal is not in the rebound magnitude but in volume: if the semiconductor index shows a volume contraction after a volume-increasing sell-off, it will indicate that deleveraging is nearing completion The difficulty hasn't hit a new high in 374 days
Don't be misled by the chain.
Reports say mining difficulty hasn't broken a record in 374 days, but I don't directly use miners' performance as a gauge for coin price. Spot price is $75,906, 24-hour low is $74,888.
Tonight I'll separate the two charts first.
$BTC
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Bitcoin is 9 weeks away from a signal that has fired only once in its history.
X
It's the weekly death cross, when the 50-week moving average falls below the 200-week.
The only time it ever happened was February 2023, with Bitcoin at $24K.
Everyone screamed bear market, and Benjamin Cowen's post about it pulled over a million views.
The bottom was already in three months earlier at $15.5K.
One year after that death cross, Bitcoin was trading at $52K. Seeing "7 times all dropped," my heart still skipped a beat 😰. A study cited by PANews states that since 2016, in the 7 scenarios where the Federal Reserve paused and then resumed rate hikes, Bitcoin recorded a decline within 30 days after the hike, with a median drop of 2.4%. For office workers investing only with spare money, this kind of news really tests one's mindset.
My judgment is: this is a risk warning leaning bearish, not a script that guarantees the next drop. I won't bet on direction just because of "0 wins and 7 losses." The sample size is only 7, and the chronological order does not mean the decline was entirely caused by rate hikes; ignoring other market factors easily overestimates this pattern.
Another point that makes me cautious is that the median drop is not the maximum drawdown, much less the loss ceiling. If resuming rate hikes tightens the funding environment, I speculate that risk asset sentiment may be under pressure, but the magnitude and duration remain uncertain. Those afraid of volatility can't just take 2.4% to reassure themselves.
I prefer to first confirm the actual implementation of policies, then check whether my position affects my life and if I have enough emergency funds. Spare money is not money that can be lost casually. Facing such historical records, what percentage of account drawdown can you endure while still being able to work and sleep normally?#US Crypto Regulation: "CLARITY Act" Progress Stalled, 401(k) Rules Enter Final Review
The boss has something to say
I came across this crypto regulation news with two contrasting lines: The bad news is that the "CLARITY Act" is stuck in the Senate, and House Democrats are discussing a new plan to transfer some crypto business originally under the CFTC to the SEC, enforcing through regulation instead of legislation; the good news is that the Labor Department has submitted rules to the White House for final review to expand alternative asset investments in 401(k) retirement plans, with digital asset-related products also under discussion.
My interpretation is: This is the real tone of crypto regulation after the midterm elections—clear legislation is gone, but the door to include digital assets in retirement accounts is opening. If 401(k) plans can legally buy BTC-related products, that represents a trillion-dollar long-term incremental pension fund; however, SEC's expanded authority means higher compliance costs. In the short term, regulatory direction is unclear, so the market won't chase highs just because of 401(k); in the long term, pension fund allocation is a stronger incremental story than ETFs.
BTC current price is about 74,800, sideways on Saturday. My approach: regulatory news is a slow variable and won't affect tonight's position; 75,000 remains resistance, looking down to 73,000. Waiting for Monday's US stock market open and ETF net flow data before deciding direction. Regulatory matters like this are to be watched over a year, not a day.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; please stay safe. $BTC $ETH $ZEC AKE dropped from 0.039 to 0.0019, then pulled back to 0.0060 in two days.
This is not a successful bottom-fishing; it's leverage swapping hands.
From 0.039 on 10-23 to a low of 0.001877 on 11-05.
A 95.2% drop in 13 days.
All-time high was 0.1467, now down −95.9%.
30-day drop of 79.3%.
At first, I only looked at the price, but later realized the position size is what matters.
During the crash days, the long-short account ratio stayed between 1.7 and 2.2.
Two-thirds were long, yet the price kept falling.
The longs got buried.
On 11-06, the ratio flipped to 0.72, with shorts in the majority.
That day the price rose +78.19%, and the next day another +53.57%.
The shorts took over the same baton.
Now at 0.0060.
Long-short ratio is 0.84, with shorts slightly more.
Funding rate +0.005%, slightly positive.
Don't forget the structure.
Total supply is 100 billion tokens, with only 22.8% circulating.
Fully diluted is 601 million, market cap 137 million, a 4.4x difference.
77% is still locked up.
Some in the community say it’s a "free fall."
$AKE
It rose nearly 2.5 times in two days, with both buyers and shorts still in. $IWM
Employment is good, so why might small-cap stocks still lag?
The latest U.S. employment report shows an unemployment rate of 4.1% in October. This supports the view that the economy remains resilient but does not eliminate financing pressures on small businesses.
Small-cap companies typically rely more on external financing and domestic demand. Stable sales can improve operations, but refinancing maturing debt at higher interest rates may also erode profit growth.
I focus on earnings revisions, interest burden, and credit spreads. If demand holds and financing conditions improve, there is a stronger basis for a catch-up rally; if strong employment instead prolongs high interest rates and companies have weak cash flow, good economic data may not necessarily translate into stock price gains.Retail investors are panic selling, while smart money is frantically picking up bloodied chips While others are selling off, they dropped another 140 million. There’s a smart money that, three hours ago, directly took out 19.62 million USD and swept 8,773 ETH on-chain. The average price was 2236. You think they’re stubbornly catching a falling knife? Check out this address’s track record. When the market crashed sharply in March this year, they precisely bottomed out 7,543 coins at 2048, almost Nonfarm payrolls exploded! The December rate hike is really on shaky ground this time 🔥
October's nonfarm payrolls surged to 165,000, while expectations were only 65,000–70,000, with the previous two months revised up by 84,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, wages rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, showing a very strong labor market 💪
Once the data came out, the probability of a December rate hike jumped from about 70% to 77%–81%. The 2-year US Treasury yield briefly rose 7 basis points to 4.54%, the dollar surged to 102.2, and gold plunged nearly $60 to around 4029.82 📉 As rate hike expectations heat up, non-yielding assets take the hit first.
But don’t just look at the headline. Morgan Stanley said the unemployment rate decline is accompanied by a rise in labor force participation, so there’s no serious overheating; Huatai also mentioned that the market’s pricing for cumulative rate hikes by the end of 2027 only increased by 5 basis points to 50 basis points, showing restraint ⚖️
$BTC $ETH $UNI
There are also concerns: forced part-time jobs increased by 339,000 to 4.84 million, U-6 rose to 7.9%, and long-term unemployment still accounts for 27.6%. So this is not a "crazy rate hike" scenario, but the December hike is moving from high probability to near certainty, with the path ahead still data-dependent 👀#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% #BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 Tether's CEO, Paolo Ardoino, posted a video: controlling a model car via a mobile phone interface. The accompanying explanation is that Tether's tech stack will support Bluetooth.
Many people's first reaction is, how does a stablecoin issuer suddenly get into remote-controlled cars? My understanding is that the focus of this video is not the car itself, but the fact that "the phone directly connects to a physical device."
The battlefield for stablecoins in recent years has been on-chain: how much to issue, on which chain, how fast the clearing is. But the real last mile of payment has always been stuck on "you have to open the app first, have internet first, scan a code first." If the Bluetooth route works, it means bypassing the network for the segment from device to wallet, solving it with near-field direct connection.
The role change behind this is even more noteworthy. Tether used to be just the issuer; now it is moving toward the position of "infrastructure provider," sinking from on-chain down to the device end. The scale of $USDT is already so large that simply competing by issuing more is not very meaningful; drilling into scenarios is where the growth lies.
Of course, a demo video is still far from a product. What Bluetooth can transmit, how authorization is done, how to prevent double-spending offline—none of these questions are answered in the video.
I want to leave you with one point: if wallets can really communicate with nearby devices via Bluetooth, the first thing to be rewritten might not be crypto trading, but the whole offline payment system.$ZEC is a highly volatile box range compressed by 1,385 for a whole month (1,110–1,390). The NU7 upgrade was realized on 11-05. On 11-06, the seventh attempt to break 1,388 failed and fell back the same day—this is a typical "good news fully priced + false breakout." The current price at 1,276 is right above the box center at 1,250, a position neither up nor down, not an entry point. Trading rating: Wait and see (bearish bias, but do not chase shorts) Strategy positioning: Edge trading of the box, avoid the middle Core reference: Current price 1,275.68 | Upper edge 1,355–1,390 | Lower edge 1,210–1,250 | Invalid line 1,110 1,385 was tested seven times but not broken → This is not a "consolidation breakout," it is chips being repeatedly distributed at the same position. On 11-06, it surged to 1,388 but closed at 1,323 that day (a 4.7% pullback), then dropped to 1,273 on 11-07, confirming the false breakout. $ZEC capital and sentiment: Catalysts have been exhausted 1. NU7 upgrade = realized good news On 11-05, mainnet activated NU7: block time reduced from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, Sprout pool closed This was the only dated catalyst for ZEC in the past month Price path: pulled up to 1,388 before the upgrade (11-06) → dropped back to 1,273 two days after the upgrade A dated positive event, once the date passes, it turns negative.A proposed tokenized U.S. stock trading venue has updated its public objection list. Apple, Meta, Palantir, S&P Global, Corning, and AMD have appeared on the newly added list. The total number of companies objecting has reached 67. According to CoinDesk's statistics on the same day, among the initially selected 62 listed companies, about 90%, or 56 companies, have already submitted written objections. The companies not yet on the objection list are only Strategy, Circle, Robinhood, Securitize, BitGo, and another large crypto-listed company. All six are crypto-related companies. This is not a vote but a veto right. According to the innovation exemption arrangement given by the U.S. securities regulator to such venues, the venue must notify the issuer in writing of the third party's plan to tokenize a particular stock. The issuer then has 30 calendar days to submit a written objection. Once the objection takes effect, the token of that stock cannot be listed on this venue. The venue must include the objecting companies in the public list within five business days, so the public list will be later than the actual decision. The original design intention was to trade U.S. stock tokens around the clock, settled in stablecoins, matching through an automated market-making pool rather than a traditional order book. After the list has been reduced to its current state, the stocks that can actually be launched are most likely only insiders from the crypto industry. The large-cap technology, banking, retail, and industrial stocks originally intended to be covered have mostly been blocked by the issuers themselves. The parent company of the New York Stock Exchange also participated in this joint venture venue. The co-chairman said at a press conference the previous week that companies outside the list actively reached out$SNDK 1400 was the price 8 days ago, with an intraday high of 1,421.1 on 10-28.
Now at 838, it needs to rise 67% to get back to 1400.
10-29 −6.1%, 10-30 −9.7%.
11-04 −9.2%, 11-05 −21.3%, lowest at 794.
In seven trading days, it has dropped about 44%.
At first glance, seeing 794, I thought I was mistaken.
The drop is not due to the earnings report.
The earnings report came out on 10-29, with revenue of 11.03 billion.
Data center revenue increased 61% quarter-over-quarter, gross margin 85.1%.
The numbers look good, yet it dropped the next day.
The reason lies in the voting results.
The Democratic Party took both chambers and won several governorships.
They promised strict regulation on data center construction.
Expectations for AI infrastructure were crushed, storage being high beta, fell the hardest.
The contradiction is here.
PE is 6.72, Forward PE 3.41, average price 2,023.
But the stock price is only 838.
The reason it's cheap is not poor performance, but the market betting that policies will strangle AI infrastructure.
Whether 1400 can be reached again, I won't guess.
Here are two reference points:
52-week range is 183 to 2,354, a 67% move is considered normal fluctuation.
But it depends on whether policies loosen first or earnings can't hold up.
There will be a 1-for-8 stock split on 11-20. Farside's Friday data is out: US spot $BTC ETF had a single-day net outflow of $411.9 million, with IBIT alone withdrawing $403 million, while FBTC actually saw an inflow of $42.8 million; from November 2 to 6, the total outflow was about $1.28 billion, with IBIT experiencing net outflows for six consecutive trading days. The $ETH spot ETF also had an outflow of $93.3 million on the same day.
The market hasn't collapsed: OKX spot BTC is currently around 75,890, touched 76,251 at 4 PM but was pushed back, 24h high/low is 76,251 / 74,888; ETH is about 2,241. TRdesk reports that across 12 exchanges in the past 24h, BTC liquidations totaled about $50.9 million, with longs accounting for 83%, which is much calmer compared to Friday's liquidation wave.
My view is that leverage is no longer the main selling pressure; the pressure is on the ETF side. If outflows don't stop after the US stock market opens next Monday, the 75,000 level will be hard to hold, so don't rush to buy yet.
$BTC $ETHIf this round of oil prices stabilizes, will funds flow back to $BTC first, or to the US stock market first?
It depends. If it's a gradual easing like now, half-talked and slowly worked out, the first wave of capital return will definitely be to Nasdaq tech stocks. Oil prices fall, inflation concerns cool down, US Treasury yields decline, and public and index allocation funds prioritize returning to US stocks, which is the main reservoir for orthodox risk assets.
Bitcoin belongs to the secondary market phase; incremental funds will only overflow after the US stock market shows risk appetite. Plus, crypto itself currently faces a lot of bearish pressure, making it hard to absorb large funds first.
But if Qatar's plan is implemented directly and the Strait of Hormuz confirms the resumption of navigation, that would be an unexpectedly major positive. BTC's 24/7 trading and short-term leveraged funds will rush in first, pulling up a wave, while true long-term allocation funds will still prioritize US stocks.
The worst-case scenario is if the oil price drop is not due to peace talks but market pricing a recession. Even if crude oil falls, funds will flow into bonds, and both US stocks and Bitcoin will be under pressure.
For us, we can use the status of Hormuz shipping and US Treasury yields as anchors. If yields decline and the strait's navigation is confirmed, Nasdaq will move first, then BTC can be laid out simultaneously.
Short-term news will tug back and forth; don't let single-day rises or falls mislead your rhythm. To follow along in sync, visit the homepage research community.
#美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% $SNDK $CL $SPCX Musk's ability to paint a grand vision is truly top-notch, directly proclaiming revenue will exceed 500 billion by 2027. The core trump card has changed; SpaceX is no longer just a contractor relying purely on government orders. By tightly partnering with Anthropic, it has carved out a new path in space computing power when terrestrial data centers are choked by regulations.
$SOXL But behind the huge profits lies a big risk. A single AI client contributes one-third of the revenue, meaning it is deeply tied to the current most frenzied large model cycle. Now that AI financing is shrinking overall, if the major client runs out of funds, this high-growth myth could be discounted at any time. The story is enticing, but don't get carried away; keep a close eye on that AI giant's cash flow trump card.PUMP has experienced two consecutive hours of volume-increased decline, and it's still unclear if the buyers are strong enough to take over.
On OKEx spot from 20:00 to 21:00, about 556,000 USDT was traded, which is 4.1 times the average of the previous 12 completed hours. The closing price dropped from 0.003823 to 0.003787. The previous hour also saw about 516,000 USDT traded. Volume has been high for two hours, but the price has fallen hour by hour.
I tend to first observe whether the selling pressure can be absorbed. There are about 244,000 USDT buy orders within 1% below the price, higher than about 131,000 USDT sell orders at the same distance above, but orders can be withdrawn and cannot be directly considered support. Contract open interest slightly decreased in the most recent complete hour, which is insufficient to prove that new shorts are aggressively increasing positions.
If the next completed hour sees volume shrink but the price still breaks below 0.00377, the support explanation weakens further; if volume increases and the price recovers to 0.00387, then we can see if the sell orders above are truly being filled.
$PUMP $TRUMP Negative news: After the Democrats took control of both chambers, the valuation of the family coin is still being pulled down
After the Democrats took over both the House and Senate, what reason does TRUMP have to withstand the political discount?
OKEx current price 1.174, 24h -3.37%, volume about 7.45 million, intraday dropped from a high of 1.279 to around a low of 1.17
CoinMarketCap and TokenPost summary: After the Democrats swept the midterm elections on 11/3, Trump-related concept coins such as TRUMP, WLFI, MELANIA led the decline. TRUMP once fell about 17% in a single day to around 1.30, even though BTC was still rebounding at that time
The core issue is not slogans, but expectations of congressional investigations: The Democratic agenda specifically targets the Trump family’s crypto projects and conflicts of interest. Related legislative ethics clauses will also block the family coin narrative, sharply cutting the political brand premium
Coupled with this week’s tech stock collapse and about $1.1 billion in crypto liquidations, low-liquidity political meme coins have fallen deeper than mainstream coins, and are still digesting the tail end of the election impact.How do those who truly make big money in the crypto circle actually do it? After studying several successful cases with public trading records, I found that their ways of making money are actually quite different.
1. Ansem: Making early discoveries of Meme narratives
On December 1, 2023, he bought his first WIF with $472 at about $0.0003 per token, and added another $185 eight days later. This was during the market recovery phase after the 2022 bear market ended, when the Solana Meme trend was just beginning.
In April 2024, WIF peaked near $4.9, about 4 months after his initial purchase.
But he didn’t just hold on blindly. On-chain statistics show he invested about $2.14 million in total, sold about $2.85 million, realizing a profit of about $804,000, with another unrealized profit of about $745,000. Note: The 16,000x figure is the ratio of the initial purchase price to the highest price, not his actual realized gains.
2. Paulo.sol: Capturing the main Meme uptrend through trend trading. He started buying BONK on November 11, 2023, began buying WIF on December 4, and started trading BODEN on March 6, 2024. He didn’t blindly chase every new coin but increased his buying power after observing upward trends in tokens, repeatedly trading by buying low and selling high. As of April 26, 2024, on-chain tracking reports show he has realized cumulative profits of about $22.83 million across BONK, WIF, and BODEN tokens.Weekend watch: Bitcoin is currently around $75,878, trading narrowly between $74,888 and $76,378 today. The $75,000 level is still holding, but the real line is at $75,600 — that's the low on election night and near the 50-week moving average. If it can't hold this, it will be the fifth consecutive week of decline, closing below the 200-day moving average. Interestingly, Strategy holds 849,000 BTC at an average cost of about $75,451, and the current price is only about 0.6% higher, meaning the whole market is watching the same line. After the non-farm payrolls, the probability of a December rate hike is nearly 80%, with the Fear & Greed Index at 25, indicating extreme fear. This weekend, the focus is on whether $75,600 can hold; only a recovery above $77,700 will signal a breather $BTC #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 1. Core Conclusion This is a financial report showing "slightly below-expected profits but capital allocation far exceeding expectations." Underwriting profit dragged down by -43%, but the $9.6 billion buyback (market expectation $1.64 billion, 5.9 times) is the real key information—the management is voting with real money at a historic high. The fundamentals provide reasons to "buy on dips," but the technicals (RSI 73.6 + volume surge and pullback on 11-05) clearly warn "do not chase the breakout." $BRKB Earnings Rating: Neutral to Bullish Trading Rating: Enterable, but only on dips, do not chase breakouts Key Reference Prices: Current price 570.89 | First support 559.6–561.0 | Second support 543.7–545 | First resistance 579.09 | Second resistance 586.30 2. Q3 Earnings Breakdown (2026Q3 vs 2025Q3, unit: million USD) Item - 2026Q3 - 2025Q3 - YoY Commentary Operating Profit 12,705 - 13,485 -5.8% Operating EPS (B) 5.94, market expectation 5.91, slight beat Net Profit 22,112 - 30,796 -28.2% Dragged by investment gains/losses, noise items Investment Gains/Losses 9,407 - 17,311 -45.7% Includes $7.7 billion unrealized gains, not reflecting operations Insurance Underwriting 1,352 - 2,369 -42.9% Biggest drag, expected 1,470, missed Insurance Investment Income 2,7What will BTC do after being selected? Let's first look at the two historical instances.
On November 6, 2018, the weekly close was 6,450.
One month later it was 3,545, a drop of 45%.
One year later it was 9,039, an increase of 40%.
On November 8, 2022, the weekly close was 16,330.
One month later it was 17,085, an increase of 4.6%.
One year later it was 37,064, an increase of 127%.
Putting the two together, it looks like "long-term gains after selection."
I originally thought the short term would be the same, but after reviewing the data, I found the opposite.
One time it dropped 45%, the other time it rose 4.6%.
The difference is not in the selection, but in what was happening around it.
In 2018, it hit the last phase of a bear market, with December being the lowest point of the entire cycle.
In 2022, it coincided with FTX, and three days after selection the exchange ran into trouble.
So selection is not the main variable, just a point on the calendar.
What really determines the movement in the following three months is what else happened at the same time.
Back to the probability issue.
With only two samples, you can't calculate probability.
If someone gives you a "high probability of increase" number, that number is made up, not calculated.
Now it's 75,906.
MA20 is at 79,451, pressing down 4.7% overhead.
7-day range is from 74,888 to 81,196.
Do you think this time there might also be a "side event" that hasn't been accounted for?
$BTC
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 One detail that taught me a lesson this week: the entire process of $BTC dropping from above 80,000 back to 75,000, the OKX perpetual funding rate almost stayed at 0.01%. I checked the records: on November 4th, when it surged to 81,200, the rate was 0.01%. On the 5th, it dropped about 6% in one day (from 80,300 to a low of 75,558), and each settlement period was still around 0.01%. The real cooldown happened after the 6th; the 4 PM settlement today even turned negative at -0.0004%, while the price had been hovering around 76,000 for two days with a 24-hour volatility of only about 1.8%. My understanding is: 0.01% is the baseline, and most of the time it just indicates that longs are paying "normal interest," which doesn't mean there's no overheating, nor is it a safety signal. The rate turning negative often happens after the drop, so using it as a bottom-fishing signal can easily lag behind. Now I prefer to treat the funding rate as a "confirmation" rather than a "warning": first look at the price structure and key levels, like whether the 75,000 area holds, then use the funding rate to see if sentiment has caught up. Do you usually watch the funding rate? Do you use it for decision-making or just as a reference? $QQQ
Nasdaq rebound: how to distinguish between a correction and a trend recovery?
On November 6 during the US stock market session, a chip rebound drove the Nasdaq higher; this information reflects intraday conditions and cannot be directly interpreted as a sustained trend. After concentrated selling, short covering can naturally happen quickly.
Growth stocks face both profit-taking and interest rate constraints simultaneously. If the rebound only restores valuations without new profit evidence, its sustainability depends more on risk appetite.
I observe whether the subsequent rise spreads from hardware to software and other growth sectors. If breadth improves and profit downgrades stop, the correction is more credible; if the rebound is concentrated and then volume increases again with a pullback, it should continue to be assessed as a high-volatility environment.$SEI
Parallel execution is one of the more interesting approaches to improving blockchain performance. Sei uses this architecture to process compatible transactions more efficiently while supporting EVM applications. However, speed alone cannot guarantee ecosystem success. Developer retention, application quality, network security, and genuine user activity will ultimately determine whether its technical advantages create a lasting competitive position.To be honest, there are three questions I haven't understood these past few days.
How did BTC surge to 81,196 in one day and then drop back to 74,888 in two days?
Circle's earnings exceeded expectations, so why did its stock price fall by 10%?
SanDisk dropped 27% in three days, what is it falling over?
First, it rises fast and falls even faster.
On November 4, after the election results came out, BTC jumped from 75,736 to 81,196.
On November 5, it opened at 80,504, hit a low of 75,208, and closed at 76,088.
A 5.5% gain in one day was completely given back.
Second, Circle beat this quarter, but the market is looking at next year.
Revenue and profit both exceeded expectations, but CRCL fell from 75.22 to 67.58.
The USDC supply is still shrinking; a good quarter doesn't mean the supply is coming back.
Third, SanDisk's drop isn't about the earnings report.
SNDK fell from 1,145 to 838, a drop of nearly 27%.
Storage stocks are being hit by expectations of AI capital expenditures.
Putting these three things together sums up as: rises rely on news, falls rely on capital.
The position isn't easy either.
Current price is 75,906.
MA20 is at 79,451, 4.7% above.
MA200 is at 73,240, 3.5% below.
7-day range is from 74,888 to 81,196.
$BTC $LIT missed its takeoff, now it can only be watched quietly land
The daily chart has completely broken below the long-term uptrend line, and the 1-hour chart shows a waterfall-like plunge, with the overall trend fully turning bearish. This slight rebound now is purely an oversold correction after a sharp drop, a typical downward consolidation.
The most critical issue is the underlying data: the long position ratio is as high as 65%! With such crowded retail holdings, the main force will never lift the price to help them break even. The most likely scenario is a weak rebound followed by continued selling pressure downward to test lower support levels, completely washing out these long holders. The overall trend is lost; control your impulses and patiently watch the show.Last night's market reaction was interesting. Despite negative headlines, Bitcoin only dipped toward $74,800, almost exactly matching the September correction low. Ethereum also held around $2,207 without breaking its previous low near $2,170. But I'm not convinced the bottom is in. Here's why I'm still cautious: 1. The rebound hasn't proven itself BTC has fallen from $88,000 to $75,000, while ETH dropped from $2,880 to $2,200. These prices naturally attract spot buyers looking for bargains. 2. Seeing this made me a bit confused: The US sanctioned 8 Canadian currency exchange companies, saying they helped Iran convert rials into crypto assets. When a country's money wants to flow out, it has to rely on a few small shops in another country to handle it; this chain is much more rustic than imagined.
What's even more interesting is that at the same time, the community is arguing about KOLs pushing products and cutting leeks. Outside, the exit is being blocked; inside, everyone is scrambling to be the exit. $BTC didn't drop, what fell was that little bit of trust.
Honestly, I don't know whether to say the regulators are too diligent or human nature is just too exploitable.Bitcoin market is declining, but Open Interest is growing against the trend!
According to Glassnode data, during the recent BTC price pullback, the open interest in Bitcoin derivatives increased by nearly $1.5 billion.
This indicates that even as market prices continue to fall, traders are still opening new leveraged positions, intensifying the battle between bulls and bears.
Notably, the continuous rise in OI during the decline may mean the market is accumulating more leverage risk. Once prices experience sharp fluctuations, forced liquidations of leveraged positions could further amplify market volatility.
Key points to watch next: BTC price trends, OI changes, and liquidation data.
Price decline and rising OI do not necessarily mean the market will continue to fall, but they do indicate accumulating risk.
Do you think this is bulls bottom-fishing, or bears adding to their positions?
#RocketLabQ3Neutron $BTC #USJobsBeatExpectations Next Tuesday (November 10) there are two major events on the same day: the US October CPI and SoftBank Group's Q2 earnings report.
SoftBank's report is worth a separate look. It is now roughly equivalent to OpenAI's "meal replacement stock": it has committed to investing $40 billion (net investment of $30 billion), and as of the end of March this year, the fair value of its OpenAI holdings was $79.6 billion, with an accumulated unrealized gain of $45 billion. The problem is that Altman confirmed in September that OpenAI will not go public in 2026, so this unrealized gain currently has no exit channel in the short term.
Where the money comes from is a hard constraint: last October, SoftBank liquidated Nvidia holdings to cash out $5.83 billion; in the previous fiscal year, it reduced T-Mobile holdings to raise $16.25 billion; it is also carrying a $40 billion bridge loan due in March 2027; in June, it tried to use OpenAI equity as collateral for a loan but was shelved by banks citing "difficulty in pricing private equity." S&P downgraded its rating outlook to negative in March.
The market has already pre-judged: it fell 7.9% on Wednesday, and intraday on Thursday it once dropped over 14%, with SoftBank's dollar bonds leading the decline among Asian investment-grade bonds.
The earnings report will focus on three things: how OpenAI's valuation is accounted for, how much the LTV rises, and where the next funds will come from.
This is a factual summary and does not constitute investment advice.A sanctions announcement shifted the focus from Tehran to Ottawa. The U.S. Treasury Department named 8 currency service companies registered in Canada, accusing them of providing financial services for sanctioned Iranian entities: converting Iranian rials into crypto assets, then directing them to blacklisted Iranian exchanges and addresses related to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The real highlight is the target. The U.S. did not escalate sanctions within Iran itself but instead targeted a geographically safer location to cut off this link’s transit points. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent put it bluntly—Canada cannot become a safe harbor for sanctions evasion.
On the surface, this message is aimed at Iranian funds, but in reality, it’s a warning to all cross-border service providers: if your node handles such money, even if registered in North America and with seemingly compliant client materials, you could one day be labeled as assisting evasion.
In the same time window, another accountability event unfolded within the community. On-chain detective ZachXBT reiterated his repeated criticism of KOL Ansem for promoting small-cap tokens and celebrity coins, yet this round the gamblers still trusted him, allowing him a respectable exit liquidity.
Both incidents point to the same structure: money always finds a way out, and there are always sellers facilitating the exit. While states block cross-border gates and the market curses the promoters, demand remains unchanged, just taking a different route.
Where the next batch of transit points will move to is the latter half of this news. $BTC and $ETH feel no impact.$BTC
At 75,000, Wall Street also started pulling money out! $840 million outflow in two days, are institutions really not stepping in this time?
Farside data shows that on November 5 and 6, US spot BTC ETFs had net outflows of $430 million and $412 million respectively.
Including other trading days this week, the total outflow over five days is about $1.282 billion.
But looking at the details, things are quite interesting.
On November 6, BlackRock's IBIT had a single-day outflow of $403 million, while Fidelity's FBTC had a net inflow of $42.8 million.
The same BTC ETFs, some are pulling money out, while others are still seeing funds coming in.
So it can't be simply explained as "institutions collectively running away."
However, overall buying is indeed weakening. BTC is currently still around $76,000, with a low touching $74,811, and the rebound lacks strength.
Short term will continue to be bearish, no rush to bottom-fish.
If 75,000 is broken, there is further pressure below; only if it climbs back above 78,000 and ETF fund outflows significantly narrow will we consider adjusting the outlook.
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 $TRX Short Setup
* Current Price: $TRX 0.31984
* Bias: Bearish / Short
* Key Resistance: $TRX 0.3250 – $0.3350
* Target 1: $0.3100
* Target 2: $0.3000
* Stop Loss: $0.3420
Analysis: After failing to hold gains following the spike to $0.37589, the daily chart for TRX/USDT shows lower highs with moving averages capping upside momentum. As long as the price stays below the resistance zone, expect a drift back down toward the recent low support near $0.3000. Institutions have pulled out 800 million, but I'm still holding firm at 76,000
To be honest, I’m a bit confused tonight — institutions are pulling out, yet the price stubbornly refuses to drop. Who exactly is holding it up?
On Friday, the US Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of 412 million, with BlackRock alone accounting for 403 million, marking the second consecutive day of outflows; November has already seen 1.28 billion outflows. But $BTC is currently at 75,982, down only 0.17% in 24 hours. Last night’s 74,888 low wasn’t broken, and 76,000 has been tested all day.
My inclination is: outflows are real, but someone is buying at 76,000. The outflows are real cash, but the price not dropping indicates strong support. On Thursday, the whole network exploded with 1.26 billion in longs, 1.12 billion of which were leveraged, and most of the leverage has been washed out, leaving those unwilling to leave.
On the flip side, we have to acknowledge: continuous institutional outflows are not trivial. If next week follows the same pace, 76,000 breaks down, 74,888 breaks again, the next stop is 73,000. Then holding on at this level will be a joke.
So here’s a straightforward question: do you think ETF outflows mean institutions are the first to run, 76,000 will eventually break, and now is the time to catch the falling knife? Or do you think outflows are just outflows, 76,000 holding means a bottom, and betting near 75,000 to rebound to 80,000?
Just a market record, not investment advice #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 There is a key clause in the $AKE OKX Terms of Service: OKX may appoint "Affiliated Market Makers," who can make markets on the platform for their own accounts, hold positions opposite to those of users, and are under no obligation to act solely in your interest. The terms even explicitly state that user trades may be matched directly with these affiliated parties, and users agree not to claim against OKX for such transactions.$JUP
Aggregators sit between traders and liquidity, which gives Jupiter a view of much of Solana's trading flow. That position is valuable but not locked in, since users can switch routes in seconds. Its long-term story depends on whether it can add products beyond swaps while keeping that routing edge.$DOT
Polkadot pitched shared security for connected chains years ago, and the market has since offered many alternative designs. The architecture is still thoughtful. What remains uncertain is whether developers want its parachain model or prefer lighter options, and that gap shows up in ecosystem activity rather than in roadmaps.#Berkshire's massive cash reserves, the earnings report will reveal the latest developments The market is highly anticipating Berkshire's earnings report, with the core focus on changes in this "ammunition stockpile." Previously, cash plus short-term government bonds once approached a historic high of $400 billion, then slightly declined in the second quarter. The funds were mainly used to increase holdings in Google and boost share buybacks, without initiating a full-scale buying spree, maintaining an overall cautious stance.
There are two reasons behind the high cash balance: first, current US stock valuations are relatively high. After a surge in AI tech stocks, there are few large targets that meet Berkshire's return threshold; combined with the Federal Reserve's high interest rate environment, short-term debt yields attractive interest, making holding cash while earning coupon income a cost-effective defensive choice. Second, the insurance business needs to reserve sufficient liquidity to cope with catastrophic claims and other unexpected expenses, so this fund is not entirely "bottom-fishing capital" waiting to be deployed.
This earnings report focuses on three key points: month-over-month changes in cash, whether stocks are net sold or continue targeted accumulation, and the scale of buybacks. If cash surges again, it indicates Abel's judgment that market risks remain, which is a somewhat bearish "Buffett signal"; if cash significantly decreases and there is widespread buying of quality equity, it means institutional long-term funds recognize the prices after this round of adjustment. If only slight buybacks and sporadic accumulation occur, it indicates waiting for a larger-scale pullback. $BTC $ETH $SOL On November 5th, the market really panicked......
The exchange spot active trading volume difference (SVD) heavily shifted to the sell side, reaching the highest peak since the market rally started in August, and even surpassing the active selling pressure triggered by the Binance incident on October 30th.
Deeper sell-side dominance brought lower prices, and based on this, we cannot determine whether the buy orders have become thicker. Unless the next similar active selling pressure does not result in lower prices.
A Binance black swan event, a US stock market crash, two consecutive shocks in a short time have stretched the market nerves to the limit and dealt a significant blow to bullish confidence. Many people have started to doubt: has the bear market really ended? If the US stock market continues to crash, where will it take BTC?
People are often most afraid of the unknown darkness. This is when we need data to help us see more clearly. In my personal experience, it takes at least several weeks or even a couple of months for the market to digest panic sentiment; the probability of a direct V-shaped rebound is low.
For us, whether setting stop-loss points or finding entry points, this period requires close attention to changes in investor behavior, sentiment, and chip structure. If you are interested, you are welcome to join the subscription area for joint discussion, where more data will be synchronized in a timely manner.
Reposted from MurphyThe grid looked quite lively yesterday, but the underlying structure isn't as pretty as it seems on the surface. Can the profits and losses really prove the strategy is effective? I watched that set of grid data for a long time yesterday: the spread grid pocketed 40u, the rebate was 20u, and the take-profit grid had a floating profit of over 100u. Just looking at these columns, it really seems like a small machine steadily dispensing candy 🍬. But at the same time, the heavy position bet on SanDisk lost more than 10,000u, wiping out months of hard work in one go. This contrast is more worth seeing than any profit screenshot—it reminds me that the "liveliness" of the grid and the "structure" of the account are often two different things. First, break down the event itself. The grid profits from volatility and spreads, essentially making small profits frequently; the rebate is a subsidy from the exchange, an external infusion; the 100+ u in the take-profit grid is more like a paper profit, and it depends on whether it can actually be realized later. Meanwhile, the SanDisk position is a concentrated, large, directional bet, and losing over 10,000u directly swallows up the previous fragmented gains. The problem isn't that the grid doesn't work, but that the position structure mixed in something completely opposite to the grid logic: one relies on discipline to capture small fluctuations, the other relies on conviction to bet on big directions. The cross-market linkage line is even more worth noting. SanDisk is a name in the storage chip chain, and its price sentiment will transmit through semiconductors, AI hardware, and risk appetite. If this sector continues to be favored, storage, computing power, and AI narratives in altcoins are easily carried along; conversely, once the hardware side corrects, BTC and ETH usually hold up first, and the real bleeding starts with high-beta altcoins and these kinds of concentrated bets.Saw some impressive data today: Canton Network accounts for $320.7 billion out of the $366 billion "tokenized assets" on RWA.xyz, a clear leader by a wide margin.
Breaking it down, this $320 billion almost entirely comes from Broadridge alone — the financial giant handling U.S. Treasury repo clearing, which processed $7.5 trillion in transactions just in September.
More importantly, these assets are called represented, meaning they are only recorded on their own ledger and cannot be freely transferred on-chain.
So this is not "RWA on-chain"; it's basically traditional finance moving internal ledgers to a different place. Analysts also say Canton now acts more like a bookkeeping layer, not a distribution layer.
With a $320 billion volume, the network's daily fees are only $1.3 million. Next time you see a headline like "RWA breaks X trillion," first ask: how much of that can truly circulate on-chain?
#RWA #Web3 #CantonThe number of bulls does not equal money
I don't bet based on headcount.
Binance SOL perpetual has 78.31% of accounts long, OKX spot is $89.80, this ratio is not the proportion of bullish funds. Accounts vary in size; more people does not mean more money.
$SOL
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Term Structure Radar
The first-level positive spread for $BTC is very small. The buy near sell far quote spread is +1.24%, with the first-level pair size about $15; at a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 0.15%. Small orders can probe, but volume expansion must look at deeper levels.
For $SOL, the first-level negative spread of buy near sell far is deeper than the mark price spread. Near-month annualized +5.55%, far-month annualized +0.62%, the near end is more expensive; mark price near-far spread is -0.07%, buy near sell far first-level quote spread is -1.34%. Without the first level, cost cannot be estimated.Three factors combined determine the current strategy: On 11-05, after a volume surge decline, the price downwardly engulfed the previous day's gains (bearish engulfing), confirming the distribution zone above 80,000 → overall bias is bearish. 74,500–74,900 is the quintuple resonance Gann lifeline (main cycle 1/4 + square 45° + April 2025 low + current low + BOLL lower band) → do not chase shorts at support. 76,270–76,530 and 77,320–77,530 are two Gann resistance bands → good short positions are only at the rebound to these resistance bands. Therefore, the strategy is: short at resistance, mostly trade after lifeline confirmation, no action in between. Today's (11-07 Saturday) execution checklist: Do not open new positions. The current price is in the middle of the range, liquidity is thinnest on weekends (1H volume only 141 BTC), orders will only lose profit to slippage. Set three price alerts: 74,500 / 76,550 / 77,320. Tomorrow (11-08) watch 75,432 (1x1 angle line next day value); if broken down, it turns weak, but do not chase shorts, wait for 74,500 to clear positions, then wait for Monday's US market $BTC. Monday to Wednesday (11-09 to 11-11) decision window: 11-10 = 300-day time window after 1/14 high; 11-11 = intersection of ascending 1x1 and 76,270 resistance band → price and time simultaneously reach a critical point. Actions may appear Monday/Tuesday with volume closing above 7This is a historic-level signal for BTC.
BTC mining difficulty has not returned to its peak for 374 consecutive days. The peak was 155.97T on October 29, 2025. The previous longest stretch in history was 364 days after the 2011 crash, followed by 253 days after China's mining ban in 2021. This time, 374 days, breaks the historical record.
What does this mean? From last October until now, for over a year, miners' computing power has been shrinking continuously. In June, the difficulty dropped to a low of 124.93T, 20% less than the peak. Although it bounced back to 148T in October, it is expected to drop another 3.7% on November 13.
Why is this happening? Three reasons: First, BTC prices are sluggish, miners are not profitable and have shut down; second, publicly listed mining companies are selling BTC and even shifting mining machines and electricity to AI computing power; third, after the Democratic midterm elections, data center restrictions are expected, worsening miners' outlook.
I have been trading for fifteen years, and this data is a contrarian indicator—miners surrendering and difficulty continuously dropping have appeared at every major cycle bottom in history. When miners can no longer hold on and shut down, it is often the darkest moment.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $BTC $ETH $ZEC