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Square was flooded with $AKE today, with some doubling their holdings and others recovering losses. Let's take a look under the hood.
Facts:
1. The starting point is not a product benefit, but the OKX wallet's AKE Boost trading competition: 150,000 USDT distributed by trading volume to the top 3000 participants, launched on November 4, and ended today at 19:00 (Beijing time).
2. The market structure is volume washing: PancakeSwap's AKE/WBNB pool had a 24-hour turnover of 43.4 million USD, while the pool liquidity is only 1.23 million USD, meaning turnover is 35 times the pool size; there were 86,565 sell orders, slightly more than 83,486 buy orders.
3. Fuel comes from shorts: this round saw short liquidations of 3.13 million USD and long liquidations of 1.68 million USD; contract positions total about 68.15 million USD, roughly 60% of circulating market cap, with a funding rate of only +0.005% per 8 hours—no bullish frenzy premium, more like mechanical short squeeze.
4. The "points redemption return" cited as a new catalyst by news flashes is actually an old announcement from February 24.
Outlook: About 2.1 billion tokens will unlock monthly on November 21, while the circulating supply accounts for only 22.8% of the total.
With incentives expiring and shorts covering, what will take over next is more worth watching than guessing price moves.
Sources: Surf (citing OKX event rules, GeckoTerminal), CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko
#AKEA signal that's particularly honest but overshadowed by major market headlines: the prices of graphics cards in Huaqiangbei have collapsed.
Before the RTX 50 series, fueled by rumors of overseas production halts, prices surged for 11 consecutive trading days, with the 5080 reaching nearly 20,000. However, since the end of October, prices have reversed and dropped by 20% in recent days. Merchants themselves say that prices in the morning and afternoon are not the same.
The interesting part is this: while the stock market narrative around AI data centers is still tugging back and forth, the frontline channel dealers who stockpile with real money have already started voting with their feet. The retreat of speculation often begins closest to the money; when speculative funds withdraw, prices are the first to know.
Of course, the average price of mainstream cards is still about 1.7 times the suggested retail price, so the bubble is far from fully deflated. But the direction is clear: those that surged first often cool down first. This script is the same in any market.The sentiment for the veteran Meme trio is cooling off, and they are the first to drop.
The Meme sector is down 5.6% overall in 24 hours, $DOGE at 0.072 down 6.7%, $SHIB at 0.0000046 down 3.5%, and $PEPE is the strongest among the three, holding steady around 0.0000050, even briefly turning positive.
Recently, meme tokens were hyped with institutional entries and treasury purchases, but as the tide recedes, many problems have surfaced. Meme tokens have no cash flow, no revenue, and rely entirely on risk appetite.
With the non-farm payrolls disappointing and the probability of rate hikes rising, these assets are the first to be abandoned. But I want to say, when sentiment hits rock bottom, meme tokens actually become the best thermometer to observe the market. When one day DOGE moves first without Bitcoin rising, it means speculative funds outside the market have returned, signaling the prelude to altcoin season. Right now, even the long positions in PEPE are only defending.Core Risk Warnings
1. $75,563 is currently the only "structural survival line": a daily close below it will sequentially test 74,880 → 73,677 → 69,000 (if the weekly close is also below 75,500). Above 75,563, the structure is "bottoming"; breaking below it signals a "new round of decline."
2. The nonfarm payrolls exceeding expectations (165,000 vs. expected 65,000) is the biggest macro variable this week: the probability of a rate hike in December at 76.8% has been repriced. The asymmetry of "no follow-through on the upside, doubled on the downside" means any rebound in risk assets is unlikely to smoothly transmit to BTC.
3. ETFs have lost $1.28 billion this month, which is the "hard ceiling" for the rebound: November recorded net inflows on only one trading day, with IBIT as the main source of withdrawals. Until ETFs return to sustained net inflows, any rebound can only be qualified as a "correction."
4. The $11 billion options expiry Gamma pressure is concentrated between 70,000–82,000: today's biggest pain point is 79,000, and market makers' hedging may accelerate volatility around the expiry. "Wait to see if it holds after expiry" is safer than betting on direction before expiry.
5. The "partial replenishment" by whales is not new capital: the withdrawal of 3,009 coins only covers half of the previous sell volume, representing spread trading rather than trend accumulation. The market's default narrative of "whales bottom-fishing" is not confirmed by current on-chain data. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% 一边是现货比特币 ETF 的资金流出登上热搜，另一边是上市公司 Strive 公布，10 月 1 日至 30 日增持了 15,124 枚比特币。企业买盘能持续多久，能不能在 ETF 资金流出时给市场提供支撑？ 先看 ETF，资产缩水和资金撤出要分开读。贝莱德旗下 IBIT 在提交给美国 SEC 的季报里披露，2026 年前九个月，基金流通份额净增加 5608 万份，净资产却下降了 0.55%。同期比特币价格下跌 4.31%，季报把币价下跌列为净资产下降的主要原因。份额在增加，基金持有的资产却跌了价。只看规模变化，很容易把币价下跌和资金撤出算成两个利空。 再看企业买盘，买了多少之外，还得看钱从哪来。Strive 在同一份公告里披露，10 月完成一笔优先股发行，净募资约 6.09 亿美元，该优先股的股息率为 15%。一次增持说明公司已经买了多少，后续能不能维持这个速度，还要看融资条件和持续支付股息的成本。 我的观点是，企业增持说明市场还有买家。判断需求回暖，更要看买盘能不能持续、能不能扩散。接下来我会盯两件事。第一，ETF 的赎回是集中在少数基金，还是扩散到多只基金并持续几个交易日？第二，There's something I've never been able to figure out: 88% of the S&P 500 companies have reported, 84% beat EPS expectations, and on average they earned 2.7% more — this kind of report card would usually call for champagne.
But the market didn't smile; instead, everyone is waiting for next Wednesday's CPI and core PCE.
It's like the whole class scored above expectations on a test, but the parents are still waiting at the door for the health check report. $BTC has been stuck, neither going up nor down these days, probably in the same situation.
I'm the same, watching the market so closely that I start doubting I'm waiting for an answer that can't be guessed at all. Right now, it seems like everyone is just watching and no one wants to make a big move first. If they try to push it up, there are still a bunch of people stuck from before waiting to break even and run, so a push up easily triggers selling; if they try to keep pushing it down, around 74887 some people are willing to buy a bit, so it’s hard to push it down further.
Trading volume has cooled off too, giving the feeling that everyone is taking a breather, just waiting to see if something happens next to take the lead, to see whether it will finally move up a bit or dip down again. $BTC A whale bought $7,410,000 in $ETH today.
He has now accumulated $30,000,000 in Ethereum this week.俄罗斯央行终于把BTC、ETH和USDT的普通投资者交易规则定下来了。 $BTC $ETH #伯克希尔巨额现金储备，财报将披露最新动向 11月17日生效，普通投资者通过单一中介每年最多买30万卢布，交易前还要考试。 12月1日，莫斯科交易所计划开始试点BTC、ETH和USDT交易。 我觉得这件事值得持续跟踪。 因为它不是又一个项目方出来喊采用率，而是传统金融市场正在尝试把加密资产纳入自己的交易和清算体系，虽然俄罗斯自身金融信誉低到极点，但是本质上BTC不是俄罗斯国债！ 所以这还跟上世纪的情况不一样，并且这里还有一个有意思的矛盾： 莫斯科交易所及其清算机构仍受到美国制裁，实际交易渠道、清算安排和USDT合规问题都需要观察。 所以我对BTC、ETH的中长期制度化发展偏正面，但不会把这条新闻直接翻译成短线暴涨。 真正值得盯的是11月17日有没有实际成交，以及12月1日莫斯科交易所能不能形成真实交易量。 像香港那样也就纯纯是个添头了！ 你觉得俄罗斯投资者会逐渐转向正规交易渠道，还是继续使用原来的场外交易方式？ 大家可以评论区一起聊聊对BTC后续价格影响的看法，我们一起讨论一下！ 我接下来也会Counterintuitive phenomenon: The earnings season is almost over, the report cards are good, yet the market shows no respect.
88% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings, 84% have exceeded consensus EPS expectations by an average of 2.7%.
But the real direction decider next week hasn’t come out yet — October CPI and core PCE. The market is waiting for the data, not the earnings reports. Earnings show how much was earned in the past three months; inflation data shows whether the Fed still has room to cut rates.
Here’s the mechanism. If inflation is higher than expected, the rate cut space shrinks, US Treasury yields rise, discount rates go up, and valuations of long-duration assets get compressed across the board. Crypto assets, being the outermost layer and most sensitive to liquidity, usually don’t see $BTC fall the most, but it reacts the fastest. $ETH moves in sync with macro trends, while high-elasticity assets like $SOL experience even more exaggerated volatility.
There’s another easy-to-miss clue: Cisco’s earnings on Thursday, with the market watching the progress on $7.5 billion AI infrastructure orders for the full year; CoreWeave’s earnings on Tuesday, focusing on data center construction and order backlog, while facing rising borrowing costs and debt financing pressure. The AI narrative is shifting from "how many orders were signed" to "how to pay the interest."
My judgment: Next week won’t be about direction, but about volatility. The valuable information isn’t whether CPI is high or low, but whether the market’s reaction is excessive. A deeper-than-necessary drop is an opportunity; if data is good but prices can’t rise, that’s when to be cautious.
84% of companies have beaten expectations; beating expectations itself is no longer news. #BerkshireQ3CashOutlook The key point is not how much cash there is, but that cash is starting to decrease: Q1 peak was about $397 billion, Q2 dropped to about $365 billion, Q3 is expected to be about $358 billion; Q2 net stock purchases were about $20 billion, ending 14 consecutive quarters of net selling, and acquisitions include Taylor Morrison and an investment in Alphabet. Abel has shifted from "hoarding cash" to "active allocation," which is the most practical good news — $ZEC Records $12.76 Million in 24-Hour Liquidations, Rivaling $BTC and $ETH ! $ZEC has experienced a massive wave of liquidations, with approximately $12,756,700 wiped out within just 24 hours, putting its liquidation activity on a level comparable to major cryptocurrencies like $BTC and $ETH. During the day, $ZEC briefly moved into positive territory, gaining 0.64% and attracting traders who rushed to open or increase their positions. However, the situation quickly reversed overnight, with thAn on-chain position record is challenging the market's habitual assumption that "shorts will inevitably be forced to explode": a certain whale is shorting simultaneously on three fronts—$BTC, $ETH, and $ATOM—with both $BTC and $ETH positions leveraged 20x at full margin, and the liquidation prices deliberately set extremely far away. This is not a short-term directional bet but a long-term ambush with ample room for error. Let's first look at the most striking set of numbers. $BTC short position: -436 contracts, entry price $77,001.5, unrealized profit +$561,800, cumulative funding fees +$3,240,800, margin $1,650,500; $ETH short position: -14,000 contracts, entry price $2,443.6, unrealized profit +$2,993,700, cumulative funding fees +$3,769,200, margin $1,554,700. Combined, just the funding fees exceed $7 million, far surpassing the unrealized gains themselves. What does this mean? This player’s real battlefield is not price difference but the funding rate curve—he stands on the side collecting fees, exchanging time for space. The $ATOM position reveals another aspect of this strategy: 5x leverage, -24,600 contracts, entry price $10.1735, unrealized profit +$215,300, but funding fees of -$6,220.77, the only one among the three lines incurring funding costs. The same logic is treated unequally across different assets, which precisely indicates that the funding fee structure, rather than pure bearish sentiment, is the underlying basis for position allocation. What the market tends to overlook$CT Bullish: OKEx contract trading shares 1.67 million CT, current price follows volume
OKEx launches CTUSDT contract trading to earn coins from November 5 to 11, prize pool 1,670,000 CT, CTUSDT coin coefficient 1.10x
After registration, cumulative original nominal transactions reaching 5,000 USDT equivalent will share rewards proportionally by effective volume, individual cap 7,500 CT, rewards expected to be distributed before November 13
The event directly ties contract transactions to CT rewards, OKEx spot CT current price 0.1335, 24h approx. +4.57%, volume about 6.1 million USDT, high 0.1463 low 0.1229
Early bird 1.2x ended today at midnight, but CTUSDT still enjoys 1.10x weighting until November 11 18:00, volume remains strong. 19.7 million USDT, and bought another 8,721 ETH.
Ember monitoring: This whale bought 10,376 ETH at about $1,626 in June 2026; today spent about 19.7 million USDT, approximately $2,245 per ETH, to add 8,721 more. Currently holding about 23,097 ETH, worth around $51.69 million, with an average cost of about $1,909. At the time of writing, BTC≈76042, ETH≈2248.
What concerns me more is: from 1,626 to an average of 1,909, the current price is still above cost — this pace looks more like accumulating in batches rather than betting on a short-term rebound.
Do you think he will continue to add more, or stop first and wait for a pullback? Whenever the on-chain whale makes a big move, I’ll keep breaking it down, follow so you don’t miss out.
$ETH 3. Indicators are only for reference; don't place orders just because of signal convergence.
I look at MACD, RSI, and Bollinger Bands, but I won't enter a position just because two indicators align. You also need to consider the trend, position, and stop-loss space.
4. Regularly organize your account.
I consistently check profits and positions, and once I reach my plan, I take out a portion. Money in the trading account can shrink if the market changes.
5. Analyze charts in conjunction with timeframes.
For short-term trades, you can look at the 1-hour chart and also refer to the 4-hour trend. Two bullish candles don't necessarily mean you should go long, and a sideways market doesn't always break out immediately. Don't treat simple patterns as buy or sell signals.
Leverage and borrowing to trade crypto can easily amplify risks, especially when you're just starting. Set your own viewing times, position sizes, and stop-losses, and stop when the time is up. $BTC | Bitcoin 4-Hour Chart: Key Support and Resistance Levels to Watch I've marked several important price levels on the 4-hour $BTC chart. Here's why these zones matter and what I'm watching next. 1. Key Resistance Levels The first major resistance is $82,000. This level previously witnessed intense battles between buyers and sellers, resulting in significant losses on both sides. If Bitcoin rebounds toward this zone, a breakout must be supported by strong trading volume. A temporary move abI am increasingly worried that the real black swan in the AI industry is not a sudden failure of technology.
But rather running out of money.
On November 6, Musk suddenly accused SoftBank of defaulting on turbine orders. This accusation has not been confirmed, but on the same day, SoftBank's stock price plummeted 10.8%, and the five-year CDS rose to a four-year high.
What is truly worth being cautious about is not what Musk said.
But the increasingly real problem the entire AI industry is facing:
GPUs can be bought, data centers can be built, power facilities can be planned.
But all these things ultimately require real money to pay for them.
If the speed of AI infrastructure construction exceeds companies' financing capacity and cash flow tolerance, then once financing tightens, the problem could spread from one company's balance sheet to the entire industry chain.
The AI revolution may not lose to technical bottlenecks but could first lose to capital expenditure and cash flow.
The true winners in the future may not be the companies that announce the most investment.
But those that can turn computing power into revenue, revenue into cash flow, and survive the capital winter.
The story of AI is far from over.
But the market may be shifting from believing in grand visions to asking a harsher question:
When will every dollar you invest actually be earned back? $SPCX $SNDK Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
After amplifying orders for $ONE, slippage on both entry and exit sides significantly increases. Simulated slippage for 10,000 scale buy/sell is 0.13%/0.12%, and for 100,000 scale is 0.59%/0.68%. Depth is discontinuous in scale; the 100,000 level is the real execution constraint.$XLRE
The economy is resilient, so why might real estate stocks not immediately benefit?
The latest U.S. employment report does not show a rapid collapse in demand. This supports leasing demand, but real estate assets still need to face financing and capitalization rates.
Slight income growth may not be enough to offset refinancing costs under higher interest rates. Occupancy rates and lease terms of different properties can also cause the same macro data to produce different outcomes.
I pay more attention to rental cash flow and debt maturity arrangements. If net operating income growth can cover increased interest, asset value is more stable; if financing pressure forces discounted sales, even with a good economy, equity holders may not receive the same protection.A $75,000 floor for $BTC is doing more than defining the weekend’s mood. It is quietly setting the terms for how traders are approaching risk across the rest of the market. The logic is straightforward: as long as Bitcoin holds that level, or slips below it only briefly before recovering, the recent decline can be treated as having found its turning point. That view, discussed between the author and a foreign counterpart overnight, frames the current setup as a moment to position in assets alreaMSCI has set the exclusion rules for Bitcoin treasury companies—the list is around 11/11, effective after the close on about 11/30.
Screening by operating assets, then applying financial ratios; reports simulate naming Strategy, Metaplanet, and the like. Strive publicly stated: first clearly define "operating assets," don’t simply classify structured finance as investment vehicles.
The key is not guessing stock prices, but whether passive indexes can continue to hold such exposures—once the channel rules change, liquidity on the stock side will shake first, which doesn’t mean immediate on-chain coin dumping.
Confidence level: Medium | Disclosure/Media (MSCI rule reports + Strive open letter). Approved list ≠ already excluded, recheck on 11/11. Are you focusing more on the list or on passive fund reactions? $BTC #I believe the four-year Bitcoin bull and bear market cycle is still following its historical pattern, at least when it comes to $BTC . However, the same cycle hasn't been as accurate for altcoins between 2023 and 2025, as many altcoins actually reached their peaks in the first half of 2024. Now the biggest question is: Where will Bitcoin finally bottom out? Its previous historical low stands around $57,800. Will $BTC break below that level and establish a new low? Or will it test the $60,000 suMEXC Chain Reaction Case Two: Someone Has Withdrawn Liquidity
The day after FinCEN issued that cutoff order, the second chain reaction occurred: Reserve announced it would stop providing market-making liquidity for $LCAP and $CMC20 on MEXC, and related funds will be withdrawn, citing FinCEN's order.
The earlier case this morning was a single source: Plasma One's app showed a pause on deposits from MEXC, seen by only one source and unconfirmed. Now this case is a named, official action, reported by WEEX at 08:22 this morning.
To be honest: $LCAP and $CMC20 are small tokens; this is just a liquidity move for one project, not a large-scale exchange-level exodus. Reserve also said liquidity on other exchanges and chains is unaffected.
The ban hasn't taken effect yet, but some have already started calculating the accounts. #After the US stock market crash, tech stocks rebound, but the Nasdaq weekly chart still falls about 3.4%. NVDA only recovered about 27% of Thursday's plunge on Friday; I won't chase this rebound yet.
On Thursday, NVDA dropped 9.3% in a single day, closing at $181.60, with an intraday low of $181.46.
On Friday, it closed at $186.64, up 2.8%, with a trading volume 1.59 times the 20-day average.
This means it only made up about 27% of Thursday's loss; SOXX rose 3.5%, also recovering only about a quarter.
ETF.net reported that the S&P 500 fell 2.7% this week, the worst week since June.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, higher than expected, raising the probability of a rate hike in December to about 77%.
I think this is an oversold rebound, not enough to confirm a trend reversal.
The stock price is still below the three moving averages: MA200 at 204.67, MA20 at 211.55, and MA50 at 219.81.
The increased volume indicates significant divergence, which does not mean the buyers have won yet.
My observation is to not chase: wait for a firm break above 194.90 (Friday's high), then see if it can reclaim 200.
If it falls below 181.46 (Thursday's low), this rebound is considered invalid.
Do you think this is a true bottom after panic, or just a temporary rebound in a downtrend?
$NVDA $AMD $MU
#USStocks #StorageStocksPressureEases, IsTheAI MemoryBullMarketStillStable? Are you okay with Brother Ba Bai losing 26 million? You promised to close the position again when it returned to 10 million.
SOXL opened at 63, with 66,421 units, closed at 61 with a loss of 144,061u. Since starting from over 80, I have been bottom-fishing $SOXL long positions, buying more as it fell, and finally chose to cut losses and exit near 60. From a principal of 26 million to now 2 million, it can't even be called halving; it's been cut down to the ankles.
The storage sector has been weak in its rebound, with $SNDK and $SKHYNIX repeatedly hitting new lows and continuously falling with high volume, causing continuous liquidation and stop-loss of longs, further pushing prices down.
From last Friday's semiconductor and storage trends, there was a pre-market spike followed by a drop. Currently, the market shows no signs of stopping the decline or stabilizing; it looks more like a technical rebound after overselling. Now is not the time to add positions or enter the market.
Currently, policies regarding the semiconductor AI industry are unclear. The Democratic Party is requesting a pause on data center construction, which greatly dampens future expectations for the storage and chip sectors. Although the recent drop has been severe, this does not yet look like a bottoming trend. Even if it is the bottom, there will be repeated oscillations to wash out the unsteady panic sellers. Holding positions will be tough. Remember this: bottoms are broad and tops are sharp. Don't be afraid of missing entry opportunities. #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% Stop staring at the K-line; the risks of these three coins are not reflected by technical analysis at all, but entirely lie in fundamentals and token distribution structure. Newbies who get involved will get "shocked":
1. $ONE (Harmony): Substantial liquidation of the public chain
This is not about whether the price has dropped enough to buy the dip, but about the project being "shut down." In August this year, a cross-shard vulnerability was exploited, resulting in the issuance of trillions of tokens, which directly led the project team to propose shutting down the seven-year-old mainnet, migrating to Ethereum, and pivoting to AI video. Coupled with the previous $100 million cross-chain bridge hack, the current market cap is only in the tens of millions. Essentially, this is a cleanup of the aftermath, facing liquidity exhaustion at any time.
2. $AKE (AKEDO): A slaughterhouse for extremely thin circulating supply
Don't get excited by a single-day surge of over 50%. Look at the token distribution: total supply is 100 billion, but only 22.8% is circulating, with as many as 77 billion tokens locked waiting for future release. Such an extremely low circulation and high control market means rapid pumps and even harsher dumps. It's purely a tool for capital games; retail investors entering are just taking the bag.
3. $PIEVERSE: Narrative exhaustion and unlocking gloom
As a new coin, the current price is entirely propped up by narrative. But the iron rule in crypto is that once the narrative is fulfilled or the hype fades, what follows is a massive unlocking and selling pressure of early low-cost tokens. With insufficient market depth, once funds withdraw, you can't even run away.Technically, $SOL is being pressured by the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, and the overhead supply from trapped positions continues to exert selling pressure. The reason it can still hold the critical support level at 90 is because institutional cost lines are around here, and 90 is roughly the average cost price for long-term holders. But whether it can continue to hold 90 going forward, I think it's unlikely! The short-term macroeconomic outlook remains bearish, and with spot ETFs experiencing record outflows recently, I believe the buying power is insufficient to counter the selling pressure. My personal guess is that the bottom for $SOL in this bear market should be between 76 and 82!#伯克希尔巨额现金储备，财报将披露最新动向 Berkshire Hathaway's Q3 2026 earnings report shows its cash reserves have further climbed to $377.4 billion, setting a new record high. Despite holding such a massive cash pile, the company has not engaged in large-scale external acquisitions but has instead chosen to increase share buybacks, repurchasing about $9.6 billion in the quarter, the highest this year.
Latest Developments Explained
· Why is cash piling up? The core reason is the scarcity of high-quality acquisition targets that meet its standards in the current market. Holding nearly $380 billion with "nowhere to spend it" reflects management's cautious approach in a high-valuation environment, preferring to keep ammunition ready for the right opportunity.
· Where is the money going? Besides buybacks, funds are mainly allocated internally. Due to higher interest rates, holding short-term government bonds and other cash-like assets generates considerable interest income (about $12 billion annualized), which itself is a worthwhile "investment."
· Performance context: Q3 operating profit fell 5.8% year-over-year to $12.71 billion, mainly pressured by the insurance segment. With core business growth slowing, boosting per-share value through buybacks is a reasonable capital allocation choice.24-hour options trading volume bullish vs bearish ratio revealed: Options funds still lean towards bullish! The biggest pain points for BTC and ETH are both exposed, where the market makers want to push the price at expiration is clear to all!
📊 24-hour trading volume + biggest pain point breakdown
✅ $BTC: 24h trading volume bullish 61.88% vs bearish 38.12%
Bullish volume 30189.04 BTC, bearish volume 18596.59 BTC
Biggest pain point: 76000, nominal amount 10.781 billion
✅ $ETH: 24h trading volume bullish 52.24% vs bearish 47.76%
Bullish volume 156895.27 ETH, bearish volume 143425.29 ETH
Biggest pain point: 2800, nominal amount 73.072 million
Core interpretation:
The so-called biggest pain point is the strike price at expiration that causes the most option buyers to lose money. BTC 76000, ETH 2800, BTC's current price is close to the pain point range, and the market has strong traction to converge at this position.
Buyers overall lean bullish, with over 60% of BTC trading volume betting on a rise, yet market makers have the incentive to keep the price near the pain point, invalidating a large number of bullish options. This explains why the bullish proportion is high but the price is slow to rise.
Moreover, BTC options nominal volume exceeds 10 billion, much larger than ETH's 73 million, so the pain point traction and pinning battles on $BTC will only be more intense.
But remember, the pain point is only a reference, not an iron bottom or top. News can break it anytime, so avoid high leverage naked positions and always set stop losses—this is more important than anything!
Just personal opinion, trade at your own risk20,000 buy orders, first check the date
I'll check the announcement first.
Breaking news reaffirms Strategy bought 21,021 coins, but the original text is from July 2025, so it can't be counted as new buying tonight.
Spot price $75,959, 24-hour low $74,888, I mark this as old news.
$BTC
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $BTC has been stuck watching this market all day, with Bitcoin just hovering around the lousy 75,900 level, moving less than two hundred dollars up or down. The volume has shrunk like a ghost, the whole market is dead silent, like trading has been suspended. Why? Simply put, it's been scared stiff by the US stock market. A couple of days ago, the Nasdaq crashed 5.5%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 12%, and Bitcoin followed the US stocks from just above eighty thousand all the way down to seventy-five thousand. The correlation has almost hit 0.68. Now that the US stock market is closed for the weekend, the external master holding the leash isn't moving, and BTC itself doesn't even know which leg to step with.
The two macro knives are still hanging overhead. Non-farm payrolls came out at 165,000, far exceeding expectations, and the probability of a rate hike in December has shot up to 70-80%, tightening the interest rate anchor firmly. The ETF side is even more honest: nearly 1.3 billion net outflows accumulated in November, with BlackRock redeeming over 400 million in a single day. Institutions are cutting high Beta positions, and Bitcoin is the first to be cut. As for the news about Strategy's 2.5 billion fundraising in the chart, it sounds impressive, but the STRC financing-to-buy-coin mechanism just resumed after being suspended for over 170 days. Converted, it only amounts to about a hundred BTC in purchasing power, more symbolic than substantial, so don't treat it as a lifeline.
I'll leave it at that. The real judgment moment is when the US stock market opens on Monday. If ETF funds keep flowing out, the 75,000 defense line will be pulled out and tortured repeatedly. Anyone itching to bet on direction now is just bored and handing fees to the market makers. Control your hands, wait for Monday's opening to see how the US stock players react—it's a thousand times better than guessing blindly here. I've seen many proposals to defend against quantum computing hackers, but this is the first time I've seen such a blatant attempt to seize someone's assets. 😅
The "quantum mine" created by Core developers is nominally meant to raise the cost for hackers stealing old wallets.
But on-chain, it can't distinguish who is the hacker and who is the legitimate owner; even legitimate holders moving old coins have to obediently lock up a deposit and wait through the challenge period.
The most absurd part is the latter half.
They say dormant assets with lost private keys will be subject to a "challengeable auction mechanism" in the future.
So the 1.1 million-plus BTC lying in ancient addresses by Satoshi are basically unclaimed meat on the shelf?
Under the banner of consensus security, reaching into others' ledgers to grab dead money—this scheme is audible across the entire network.
$BTC
$ETH BTC funding rate has turned positive, SOL's negative funding rate only lasted for an hour
The post-market analysis said it would grind between 75,200 and 76,400, waiting for one side to break first. Nonfarm payrolls topped the hot list all day, but the market remained unchanged, the box is still there, no breakout.
$BTC 75,938, +0.54% in 24 hours. High at 76,251, low at 74,888, 75,200 was pierced once overnight but pulled back.
Funding rates have all turned positive. Post-market BTC funding rate was -0.00016%, longs were unwilling to even pay interest; at 21:10 it turned back to +0.0051%, now +0.0068%, paying more and more. $ETH 2,246, funding rate +0.0063%, continuously paying. $SOL 89.98, at 21:10 funding rate was -0.00082%, just took over the negative funding baton for over an hour, now turned back to +0.0011%.
Positions haven't moved either. BTC contract open interest is 34,487 contracts, post-market 34,524 contracts, down by about 40 contracts.
Tonight, watch the funding rates first. If BTC funding rate turns negative again and SOL follows back, it is very likely to test lower tomorrow; if 75,200 doesn't hold, look for 73,000. Conversely, if the 4-hour candle closes above 76,400, the bearish outlook is invalidated, and look towards 78,000.
Do you think the funding rate will turn back tonight? #美军再度打击伊朗，霍尔木兹海峡重开仍存分歧
The US military has struck Iran again, and disagreements remain over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The US-Iran situation is now particularly divided.
The Qatari Prime Minister stepped forward saying the negotiations have achieved "significant results," Vice President Pence is on calls with mediators almost daily, claiming the mediation has reached the highest levels of the White House.
But on the same day, Trump personally admitted the US military carried out a "small strike" on Iran, with two missiles directly hitting Qeshm Island. He says "we are talking," but the actions haven't stopped.
The market is caught in a dilemma because of this drama. On Thursday, the VIX panic index surged past 50%, the Nasdaq dropped over 5% intraday, Bitcoin fell below 76,000, and the crypto market liquidated over $1 billion in leveraged long positions.
But gold doesn't play by those rules; it surged above $4,146, hitting a two-week high. Crude oil is even more conflicted: WTI closed up only 0.34% at $90.83, Brent at $98.32. Traders fear that negotiations might cause oil prices to crash, but also fear a breakdown could disrupt supply.
Pence is the person in Trump's circle least eager for war, but since he's now leading the talks, it shows the White House is also gambling internally. The problem is Iran has already declared it "no longer trusts paper promises" and wants to see actions first.$JUP
Jupiter illustrates why liquidity aggregation and trading infrastructure matter in a fragmented DeFi environment. Finding competitive execution across decentralized liquidity sources can improve the trading experience for users. However, platform popularity and token value are separate questions. Fee generation, token utility, competitive pressure, and the sustainability of ecosystem incentives remain important factors in evaluating JUP's longer-term fundamentals.Amazing! Congress is deadlocked, but the administration is quietly pulling the plug on the trillion-dollar long-term funds. This move in US crypto regulation, a "clear path above, secret passage below," has completely confused the market!
Recently, everyone has been flooded with news about the Senate stalling the CLARITY Act, thinking compliance efforts have stalled again. But don’t just focus on Congress; a more crucial move has already been made—the Department of Labor has officially submitted the final rule allowing 401(k) retirement plans to allocate crypto assets for White House review!
Looking at these two things together, the underlying logic is very intriguing.
The CLARITY Act is stuck in Congress mainly due to fierce conflicts of interest. Provisions about stablecoin interest and DeFi liability boundaries are deadlocked, making it hard to surpass the 60-vote threshold in the short term. This means a unified federal regulatory framework is still absent.
But the executive branch is bypassing this deadlock. The US 401(k) market exceeds $10 trillion. Previously, employers avoided involvement fearing lawsuits for "breach of fiduciary duty." This time, the Department of Labor clearly states that as long as six factors including fees and liquidity are evaluated, employers can obtain "safe harbor" protection, directly removing their legal concerns.
In short: legislative gridlock means the industry can’t get a unified compliance ID in the short term; but administrative loosening forcibly carves out an entry gap amid regulatory fog.
#美国加密监管：《CLARITY法案》推进受阻，401(k)规则进入最终审查 I took the first position in $BSB at 0.093, just one lot of spot.
Here's why. The order book looks weird: the 0.093 level has an absurdly thick order, and the key is that after it gets pulled, it gets replenished exactly the same way, back and forth several times. Someone who really wants to sell wouldn't mess around like this; the purpose of this is to make you see that wall and trust it.
Volume has shrunk sharply here, the candlesticks are basically flat, but the MACD is showing a bullish divergence. The price hasn't made a new low, but the indicator has already risen — I usually interpret this kind of mismatch as a shakeout to force out weak holders. Also, there's no news influencing the market right now; it's purely capital playing against each other, so the technical signals are actually cleaner.
So I don't plan to chase upwards. If it can hold on a pullback, then move, but chasing at this kind of level won't hold up through a retracement.
If 0.088 breaks, I’m out, no hesitation. The first target upwards is 0.11, and only if it really breaks above that is 0.125 a realistic target.
Manage your own money carefully; don't copy others' positions.In the prediction market, when they say "everyone thinks Bitcoin will break through," I always want to ask a follow-up question. Who exactly is "everyone"? Is it the majority of people, or the majority of money? Odds leaning toward a certain outcome can show the direction of funds, but that doesn't mean the answer is known in advance. It's different from just watching coin prices regularly; here you also have to consider the cutoff time and what exactly counts as a breakthrough. You might guess the direction roughly right, but you might not even fully understand the settlement conditions. I'm still reading the rules, and the comment section is already celebrating—this is way too hasty.$XLF
With interest rates remaining high, which factor is more important for financial stocks?
The resilience of U.S. employment means that demand and credit conditions faced by financial institutions may not deteriorate rapidly. However, the impact of interest rate changes on asset returns and liability costs is not synchronized.
Banks may achieve higher loan yields but might also increase interest payments to retain deposits. Insurance, payment, and capital market businesses respond differently to the same macro environment.
I focus on net interest margin and credit costs rather than simply betting on high interest rates. If deposits are stable and bad debts are controlled, profitability resilience improves; if financing costs rise faster than asset returns or loan losses increase, the sector may still face pressure.Raised approximately $2.521 billion, Strategy's Stretch completed its initial issuance and acquired 21,021 bitcoins
Digital credit combines financial infrastructure developed over centuries, including corporate equity, preferred stock, trading markets, tax laws, and securities regulation.
Strategy's Stretch completed its initial issuance in July 2025, raising about $2.521 billion. Strategy stated that it has used the net proceeds after deducting fees to purchase 21,021 bitcoins. Stretch is a perpetual preferred stock traded on Nasdaq, adopting a monthly dividend rate policy determined by the board of directors. $MSTR I've never quite understood: a company borrows money to buy coins, and the buyers of the coins are even scrambling to buy its preferred shares. So who exactly is making money from this?
Strategy just played out this scenario. Stretch raised $2.521 billion, and after fees, bought 21,021 bitcoins, not a single one left.
The most outrageous part is that what it issued isn't debt, but perpetual preferred shares—no maturity date, and the dividend rate can be changed by the board at monthly meetings. It means I get the money first, I decide the interest rate, and you don't have to wait for the principal.
I originally thought the buyers were betting on $BTC going up, but later I realized they were actually betting that this company can always raise new money.Let's first look at an unassuming number: 2.521 billion USD, converted into 21,021 bitcoins. This is the fundraising and usage of Stretch under Strategy, with all proceeds, after issuance fees, fully invested into spot assets, not a cent left out.
What’s noteworthy is the form of the money. Stretch is not a bond; it is a perpetual preferred stock traded on Nasdaq, with no maturity date, and the dividend rate is decided monthly by the board. It neither requires principal repayment nor promises a fixed coupon, so the financing cost is controlled by the issuer. Saylor calls this "digital credit"—combining company equity, preferred stock, trading markets, tax law, and securities regulation into a machine that continuously converts capital market funds into $BTC.
First issued in July 2025, and still able to raise funds at this scale today, indicates no shortage of buyers. The issue is not on the demand side but on the cost side: the dividend rate floats, affordable when the coin price is good, but during sideways or deep declines, this expense becomes a fixed cost on the balance sheet.
So this is not "buying coins again," but a choice of financing structure. Using perpetual preferred stock instead of convertible bonds means spreading the repayment pressure from "a certain day" to "every month," gaining the flexibility of no maturity date.
Worth considering: as more entities learn to channel stock market money into $BTC this way, the marginal buyers will no longer be retail investors but a group of institutions extremely sensitive to dividend rates and net asset premiums. Their rhythm is even harder to predict than ETF subscriptions and redemptions.【Follow Old Chives, Wealth Is Yours】$AKT: The veteran decentralized computing power project moves to Solana, bringing new variables to the AI computing power track!
The Akash community has passed governance proposal #346, deciding to migrate the standalone application chain originally running on Cosmos to Solana.
This is not just a simple ecosystem switch but a fundamental architecture reconstruction.
Why migrate?
Akash itself is a decentralized cloud computing marketplace where GPU and server providers can rent out computing power, and developers can rent resources.
With the growth of AI inference and GPU demand, Akash hopes to concentrate more resources on the computing power market rather than continuing to maintain an independent consensus chain.
But migration also brings a key issue:
Previously, AKT staking was used to maintain the security of Akash's independent chain; after migration, this demand may change.
The project’s proposed AEP-95 adopts a one-way migration mechanism: locking AKT on the original chain, then minting an equivalent amount of SPL AKT on Solana after proof verification.
In the initial phase, AKT on Solana will not have staking and governance functions.
What’s truly worth attention is Akash’s BME mechanism:
Users consuming computing power services may translate into AKT burn demand. If future computing power usage grows and net burns expand accordingly, AKT will have a more solid value capture logic.
Currently, AKT is about $0.64, with a market cap of approximately $193 million, and a 7-day increase of about 5%–6%. However, trading volume and capital flow have not yet given strong confirmation $BTC $ETH 九月底那篇我说过，下次费率转负发跟踪帖，一起验证。这篇就是兑现。 先说结论：连续转负还是偏空，十次里七次跌。但这次多了一个提醒：它更像是"跌势没完"的确认，不是"跌到底了"的信号。想靠它抄底的人，十月这波要失望。 怎么测的，还是老口径。OKX 的 BTC 永续费率，每 8 小时一个点，前值大于等于零、当前值变负，记一次转负。看事件当天收盘到 7 天后收盘的涨跌。这次窗口是 8 月 6 日到 11 月 7 日，费率只保留三个月，这是 OKX 的规矩，样本就这么大。279 条费率记录，14 次转负，13 次能算出 7 天结果。 结果摆这。13 次里 5 涨 8 跌，中位数 -0.94%。拆开看，连续转负（前后 3 天内还有转负）10 次，3 涨 7 跌，中位数 -1.27%，平均 -0.78%，最惨一次 -3.24%，最好一次 +3.18%。单次转负（孤立出现）只剩 3 次，2 涨 1 跌，中位数 +1.40%。 跟九月底那版比，方向没变，力度变了。连续那条还是站得住：10 次里 7 次跌。九月 5 号、7 号那两次，我当时说偏空，结果 7 天分别跌了 3.24% 和 3.04%，这套当时Many people study macroeconomics every day, guessing when the US stock market will crash.
But I pay more attention to one action:
Berkshire Hathaway spent $9.6 billion on stock buybacks in the third quarter.
In the same quarter, its operating profit fell by 5.8%, and net profit dropped by 28%.
If you only look at the income statement, you would think this company is weakening.
But if you look at buybacks, cash reserves, and management's capital allocation together, the story is different.
The market trades fear every day, but the real big money must answer a more practical question: where exactly should the money in hand be placed?
Holding cash has its cost, buying stocks has its risk.
No asset is worth unconditional bullishness, and no cash is worth indefinite hoarding.
The hardest skill in investing is not predicting when a crisis will come.
It is whether you have the courage and discipline to act when the opportunity truly arises.Whales — "Partial Replenishment," Not New Capital
A dormant address that previously sold 5,699 BTC near $89,000 withdrew 3,009 BTC (about $228 million) from Binance on November 6 in the $75,000–$76,000 range, but only covered half of the previously sold amount. This is a "sell high, buy low" arbitrage operation, not new capital entering the market. Although there is a shift in accumulation direction among ultra-large holders with over 10,000 BTC, the continued outflow from the US spot ETF and the contraction of stablecoin liquidity indicate that overall spot demand remains weak.
Derivatives — Long Positions Have Been Cleared, but Option Gamma Suppression Persists
During this week's decline, $428 million in long positions were liquidated, with $265 million liquidated in a single 12-hour unilateral long session; the derivatives market saw forced liquidations exceeding $1.27 billion within 24 hours, with bullish positions liquidated over $1.1 billion. Leveraged longs have undergone a round of systemic cleansing, but the $11 billion option settlement's Gamma pressure is concentrated in the $70,000–$82,000 range, and market makers' hedging may accelerate sell-offs around the settlement. The largest pain point for today's expiry is at $79,000, about 3,000 points from the current price.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美军再度打击伊朗，霍尔木兹海峡重开仍存分歧 #cohr's performance growth exceeds expectations, can it drive a rebound in optical stocks?
My view is: mrvl and lite are unlikely to return to previous highs in the short term due to acquisition impacts. For cohr, optical interconnection is simultaneously driving revenue growth and profitability improvement. In Q1 of fiscal 2027, revenue was $2.37 billion, up 50% year-over-year; adjusted EPS grew 80%, adjusted gross margin rose to 40.6%, an increase of 1.84 percentage points year-over-year, indicating growth is translating into stronger profitability.
The company expects comparable revenue growth excluding sold businesses to exceed 60% for the full year, further reinforcing expectations of accelerated growth.
The approximately $20 billion five-year PhotonLink agreement also enhances long-term demand visibility, but revenue from this agreement will not ramp up until early 2028 and cannot be counted in near-term performance.
The most critical test going forward is whether capacity expansion can continue to convert into deliveries and profits. If capacity is smoothly released and gross margin continues to improve, COHR is expected to maintain a trend of profit growth outpacing revenue growth, providing earnings support for the stock price; delayed deliveries or stagnant profit margins would weaken this bullish thesis. AI stocks rebounded, but the gains shrank by half, did the bottom-fishers end up taking the hit again?
Not necessarily. A single day of a rise followed by a fall is not enough to declare the rebound dead.
Last night, Nvidia rose about 7% intraday but closed with only 2.8%; the Nasdaq narrowed from 1.7% to 1.1%. There were buyers at the low, but once the price went up, sell orders pushed it down.
Three points to clarify:
1. Panic easing ≠ confidence restored
The rebound includes both bottom-fishers and short-covering. Just because some dare to bet doesn’t mean others dare to chase the highs.
2. After a big drop, a rebound is possible; to keep rising requires worries to cool down
The market fears tighter AI regulation and a slowdown in data centers. One day of price increase won’t make these issues disappear; we still need to watch policy details and capital expenditure guidance.
3. The sector is diverging
AMD and Intel closed up about 11% and 8%, clearly stronger than Nvidia; capital is starting to pick selectively.
Next week, watch three things: whether the pullback can hold Friday’s low, whether the leading stocks can continue to be strong, and whether the price can hold above Friday’s high on another rally.
Repeated high opens and low closes mean using the rebound to exit; a pullback with shrinking volume followed by expanding volume breakout means the rebound is solid.
Panic is retreating, but there aren’t enough buyers chasing the rise yet. The first bullish candle only shows the downtrend is easing; whether the bottom is solid depends on subsequent support.$SAFE
Safe became the standard multisig wallet for DAOs and teams managing large treasuries. That trust is hard to replicate. The question is how directly the SAFE token captures value from that usage, since a widely used product doesn't automatically create token demand.