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#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温
Bitcoin has really had a tough time lately.
It was first tossed around by the interest rate decision.
Finally, the non-farm payrolls came out,
but US employment again exceeded expectations.
Now the rate cuts that bulls were hoping for
will probably have to wait in line again.
Originally, the market was hoping
that the US job market would gradually cool down,
giving the Federal Reserve a reason to cut rates.
But employment was not that bad;
in fact, it was much stronger than expected.
What’s even more painful is
that the market’s bet on a rate hike in December
has already risen to nearly 80%.
Previously, people hoped the Fed would ease monetary policy,
but now, on the contrary,
we have to be wary of it continuing to tighten.
US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthening
may also keep risk assets under pressure
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Bubblemaps accuses some KOLs of secretly diverting millions of dollars from the community and then squandering it on their fans.
Those who pay a little attention might notice this, but some inexperienced traders who fear missing out tend to overlook it.
Top KOLs use public wallets and leverage platforms like FOMO (everyone can see and trade).
They buy a backup wallet; the main wallet is made public so others can follow and buy. The main wallet rarely makes any trades, while the backup wallet is used for trading.
First, buy this coin at price level X, which is a good entry point. The moon phase is coming, and it can be used to earn money/rewards from Launchpad or social trading platforms like FOMO.
Developers/creators usually buy large amounts of tokens in the same transaction as creating the token or use multiple wallets to buy simultaneously.
From charts and holder lists, it superficially appears that "there are many buyers" and the supply is dispersed.
In reality, one or two people control most of the supply through multiple wallets.
Then, they gradually sell shares through secondary wallets without being immediately detected, making it easier to control the price and giving others the impression that the community is actively buying.The cryptocurrency market experienced a broad sell-off, with all major sectors seeing significant declines. The DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network) sector, which led gains the previous day, plummeted 7.31% within 24 hours. Among them, Grass (GRASS) plunged 14.32%, Filecoin (FIL) fell 8.47%, and Render (RENDER) dropped 5.72%. Bitcoin (BTC) declined 5.66%, touching the $76,000 mark; Ethereum (ETH) fell 7.71%, dropping below $2,300. General Declines Across Sectors This downturn was not limited to the DePIN sector but swept across the entire crypto market. Major sectors such as DeFi, Layer 1, and meme coins all recorded significant losses. This synchronized decline indicates a decrease in overall market risk appetite rather than issues isolated to specific sectors. The DePIN sector had previously performed strongly, and this sharp reversal highlights the current market's fragility and susceptibility to profit-taking. Industry Analysis and Impact This sell-off may have been caused by multiple factors. Macroeconomic uncertainties, including potential regulatory developments and volatility in traditional markets, have weakened investor confidence. Additionally, the recent surge in DePIN tokens may have been overextended, triggering a correction. As market bellwethers, the declines in Bitcoin and Ethereum underscore the lack of immediate bullish catalysts. On-chain data shows increased selling pressure from short-term holders and a slowdown in institutional inflows. The sharp decline in the DePIN sector is particularly noteworthy$BTC How long do you think BTC will continue its weak consolidation before it can resume a sustained upward trend?
‼️Trouble, the most tormenting $BTC market is here: it can't fall further, nor can it rise, and confidence recovery may take months. Has the long, volatile, and gradual decline just begun?
The US midterm elections changed the congressional landscape, with the market worried that crypto regulatory legislation will be blocked, and policy uncertainty suppresses risk appetite.
A major exchange hacking incident further undermines confidence, causing some investors to withdraw funds for safety.
Continuous outflows from spot ETFs have further weakened one of BTC's most important institutional buying forces.
Policy suppression expectations, hacking incidents shaking confidence, ETF outflows removing buying power. Triple pressure combined, BTC repeatedly struggles around $75,000.The real killing logic behind the big crash in the crypto circle (90% of people don't understand)
Many have been trading contracts for years but still haven't grasped a fundamental truth:
Your stop loss, closing positions, and liquidations never mean the numbers in your account just disappear.
Every exit order is genuinely executed in the market, turning into buying pressure or selling pressure, directly affecting market trends.
All long position stop losses, take profits, and liquidations uniformly equal 【market selling pressure】;
All short position stop losses, take profits, and liquidations uniformly equal 【market buying power】.
Understanding this is the real entry point into trading.
Now let's talk about the most dangerous core structure in the current market:
Currently, $BTC longs are extremely crowded on the spot market, with a severe imbalance between longs and shorts, compounded by very poor liquidity in the current market.
This structure leads to two completely different outcomes: a slow decline or a sharp drop.
A slow decline is a healthy deleveraging.
A gradual grinding down gives everyone ample time to react.
Contract traders actively reduce positions and stop loss to exit;
Spot users remain calm and won't panic sell mindlessly.
Risks are gradually released, leverage is slowly unloaded, and no concentrated selling pressure forms.
A high-volume sharp plunge is a vicious two-way stampede.
The rapid drop leaves no buffer time; no one can manually deleverage in time.
Prices instantly break through multiple long liquidation zones:
Massive long liquidations in contracts trigger continuous forced market sales, generating endless new selling pressure;
Panic from the rapid drop instantly spreads to the spot market, many holders can't withstand the emotion and follow the crowd to sell off.
Contract liquidations hammering the market + spot panic selling create a double selling pressure resonance. $ETH #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温
The market currently does not simply interpret a strong non-farm payroll as bearish, nor does it see the narrowing of ETF outflows as a bottom-fishing signal.
Only if yields continue to rise and ETFs still have net outflows will the rebound likely lack follow-through; if capital flow first stops the bleeding, the market will have a foundation for recovery.
What this data truly changes is the market's imagination about the interest rate path. Now the most important thing for the market is to watch the US dollar and yields, and $ETH capital flow is also very important.
$BTC $ZEC My view on yesterday's non-farm payroll data
The recently released October non-farm payrolls showed an increase of 165,000 jobs, while the market had originally expected only 70,000, a significant gap. The unemployment rate also dropped to 4.1%. Once this data came out, the market raised its expectations for a Fed rate hike; now the probability of a rate hike in December has reached 76%. The US dollar strengthened, US Treasury yields surged, and gold came under pressure and weakened.
Normally, with rising rate expectations, high-valuation tech stocks should be suppressed. But a few days ago, due to the elections and regulatory rumors, the chip and computing power sectors had already experienced continuous sell-offs, releasing a lot of short-term selling pressure. Investors took advantage of the negative news to enter the market and pick up chips, which explains the contradictory scenario where rate hike expectations rise but tech stocks rebound.
At this point, I think the uncertainty brought by the midterm elections is likely behind us. Going forward, the market focus will return to two major issues: the US-Iran situation and whether the Fed will hike rates in December. It’s undeniable that the short-term US stock market is indeed testing patience, but the recent global markets are all similar, all struggling, so it’s better to complain less and be more patient. Submission for review is not approval
I won't count it as positive news yet.
SEC crypto broker rules are still under White House review, the draft has not been made public, BTC spot price is $75,695.8, 24-hour low is $75,395.3.
I haven't seen the custody details, so I won't calculate the money brokers use to buy coins.
$BTC
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4%
【Midterm Election Results｜US Tech Stocks Review】
The midterm election results are in, uncertainty has been removed, but this does not mean all risks have been cleared.
With the Democrats controlling both chambers, expectations for policies like computing power regulation and energy consumption taxes will continue to suppress sentiment in the tech and semiconductor sectors.
Recently, memory stocks have rebounded with a high open but closed lower; selling pressure has not been fully exhausted. Currently, this is more of a technical correction rather than a trend reversal.
From a fundamental perspective, the memory sector remains promising. We continue to monitor NAND/DRAM prices and cloud providers' capital expenditure guidance, waiting for a true stabilization signal. Personally, I continue to focus on SanDisk and Micron.
⚠️This is only a personal review and does not constitute investment advice $SNDK After the Democratic Party won the election, their first focus is on tariff policy. Several Democratic lawmakers have expressed plans to amend the previous tariff framework.
The logic is clear: high tariffs will ultimately be passed on to domestic consumers in the U.S., raising prices and pushing up inflation, which is also a key point for winning voters. However, the reality must be acknowledged—legislation must go through multiple rounds of congressional negotiation and veto constraints, making it difficult to completely repeal tariffs in the short term.
This issue's impact on the market cannot be ignored. If tariffs are marginally relaxed, it will affect global supply chains, corporate costs, and inflation expectations, indirectly altering the Federal Reserve's policy pace.
However, this is more of a medium- to long-term variable. In the short term, the main market drivers remain CPI data, U.S. Treasury yields, and ETF fund flows. Policy developments can be continuously monitored, but do not rely solely on this news to bet on short-term market moves.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK Suddenly feel this chart is quite scary
From 201·~2017, 2019~2021, BTC was accelerating upward.
But from 2022~2025, BTC is generally rising linearly.
Brother Feng hopes that with the addition of ETFs, the market becomes more mature and rational, rather than BTC's upward momentum being insufficient.
Brother Feng, because he is deeply involved in this industry, inevitably has some bias. So here he also wants to advise himself to be rational and not to participate in this industry based on past#伯克希尔巨额现金储备，财报将披露最新动向
The core focus of this news is: Berkshire Hathaway holds a massive amount of cash. Is Buffett waiting for investment opportunities, or has he already found assets worth acquiring?
I suggest paying close attention to three figures: cash reserve size, stock purchase amount, and stock sale amount. These three indicators can help assess Buffett's current investment stance.
Q3 2026 earnings report, latest data
Data source: Reuters and Berkshire's financial report.
What does this report indicate?
1. After the Buffett era, Berkshire has started to use cash more actively.
Current CEO Greg Abel repurchased $9.6 billion in stock in Q3, indicating management is becoming more proactive in capital allocation.
2. The $356.9 billion cash reserve remains astonishing.
Although the cash reserve dropped from $380.2 billion at the end of March, it is still at an extremely high level.
This means Berkshire has not invested all its funds in the stock market and still maintains huge liquidity.
3. This should not be simply interpreted as Buffett being bearish on the stock market.
A high cash reserve may mean:
There are currently no sufficiently attractive large investment opportunities.
Management wants to retain the ability to buy at distressed prices during crises.
Short-term government bonds can provide relatively stable interest income.
Waiting for better valuations and investment returns. Bitcoin briefly fell below $75,000: On November 5, BTC flashed down nearly 6% from above $80,000, hitting a low of about $74,762, the lowest since August 21; it then repeatedly fluctuated around $76,000. Over $1.2 billion was liquidated across the network within 24 hours, with long positions liquidated over $1.1 billion, resulting in a large-scale clearing of leveraged funds.
Market sentiment plunged into "extreme fear": On November 7, the crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped from 28 to 25, officially entering an "extreme fear" state. However, there were conflicting signals in the market—73% of the 248 listed coins were rising, BTC only fell 0.22%, ETH rose 0.41%, and turnover was very low, indicating that top assets did not participate in the sell-off; the decline mainly affected mid-tier high-leverage positions.
Institutional funds are retreating rather than bottom-fishing: The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a cumulative net outflow of about $1.28 billion in November, with a single-day outflow of $411.9 million on November 7 alone (BlackRock IBIT redeemed $403 million). Wall Street has not shown active bottom-fishing intentions after the liquidations and is still waiting for clearer price signals.
Regulatory tightening in some areas: The US Treasury's FinCEN ordered cutting off MEXC's connection with the US financial system, accusing it of handling at least $16 billion in illegal funds related to sanctions evasion from 2021 to 2026. This is another substantial blow by US regulators to offshore exchanges following the Binance incident.
#伯克希尔巨额现金储备，财报将披露最新动向 Buffett left behind a huge cash reserve; what exactly is Berkshire waiting for? Cash reserves hit a new high of $377.4 billion 🔥
On November 7, Berkshire released its Q3 earnings report:
Net profit: $22.112 billion, down 28.2% year-over-year
Operating profit: $12.705 billion, down 5.8% year-over-year
Stock buybacks: $9.6 billion
What I’m more focused on isn’t the profit decline, but two moves:
First, continuing to hoard cash, unwilling to blindly act in a high-valuation environment.
Second, aggressively buying back its own stock, indicating management believes their shares had investment value at that time.
Signals worth noting:
AI can change the future, but capital ultimately looks at returns.
While the market chases AI, tech stocks, and growth stories, Berkshire chooses to hold cash and wait for opportunities.
True mature investing isn’t about being fully invested all the time, but knowing when it’s not worth making a move.
Cash is also a strategy!I saw a piece of data tonight that shocked me: U.S. spot BTC ETFs had a net outflow of about $1.28 billion this week.
As a newbie, my first reaction was: Have institutions all fled?
But after examining the data closely, I found three points worth mentioning.
First, don’t mix up the time periods of the numbers. The news said "a cumulative net outflow of about $416 million since the beginning of this year," while "this week" saw an outflow of about $1.28 billion. One is the total since the start of the year, the other is just one week. When you see big numbers, first ask: What time frame does this cover?
Second, not everyone is selling on the same day. On Friday, BlackRock’s IBIT redeemed about $403 million, but on the same day, Fidelity’s FBTC actually had a net inflow of about $42.8 million. In the same week, ETH spot ETFs also had a net outflow of about $365 million, marking the sixth consecutive week. So "ETF fund outflows" do not equal "institutions collectively retreating," it’s more like a few large positions adjusting.
Third, while there are outflows, some are buying. While ETFs are bleeding, Strive disclosed that it increased its BTC holdings by 15,124 coins in October. Different institutions are acting differently.
My current understanding: fund flows are a thermometer, not a script. They indicate the market sentiment is somewhat cold, but they don’t prove "a drop is imminent," nor do they prove "it’s time to bottom-fish immediately." What really matters might be how long this outflow lasts and whether the corporate side can absorb it.
Asking veteran players: Do you focus on weekly data or daily data? When you see "net outflow" #BTC spot ETF net outflow this year totals about $416 million. Bitcoin and Ethereum are stuck in a "neither deep drop nor strong rise" oscillation dilemma. $BTC fluctuates repeatedly between $75,000 and $78,000, while $ETH consolidates narrowly around $2,200–$2,300. In October, BTC and ETH fell by 7.3% and 16.0% respectively, with market breadth sharply contracting. The root of the oscillation lies not in the price itself but in the capital structure: both BTC and ETH spot ETFs have net outflows, with ETH alone seeing a $1.6 billion outflow in a single month, indicating tactical contraction in institutional demand. More troubling is that the total open interest in the market has dropped to a 12-month low, leverage has basically been cleared, yet the perpetual funding rate remains positive, meaning bulls are still paying to "stay long"—chips have cleared out, but those unwilling to admit defeat are still holding on.
The future trajectory is more likely not a one-sided breakout but a bottom test followed by divergence. 10x Research expects BTC could still reach $90,000 by year-end, but only after first dropping to $77,000–$79,000 to complete the final shakeout, and ETH is expected to underperform BTC because value continues to flow to Layer 2, and ETH holders have not received sufficient returns. The key signal triggering a trend reversal is the funding rate turning negative, which would mean bulls truly give up and a bottom structure is established; before that, any rebound is more likely a recovery rather than a reversal.
#US October nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, fueling bets on a December rate hike #BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 Brothers, BTC and ETH barely held above 75,000, but ETF funds are still flowing out
$BTC $75,900 |$ETH $2,244
Bitcoin slid from above 76,700 to around 75,900, touching 75,100 intraday, while Ethereum struggled near 2,244. The entire network saw liquidations exceeding $1.27 billion, with longs accounting for over $1.1 billion; bulls have been wiped out in two consecutive rounds.
The core of the sell-off is the crash in AI tech stocks spreading. After the midterm elections, the market began pricing in tighter data center approvals, leading to a collective sell-off in Nasdaq and semiconductor sectors. IG analysts bluntly stated that this wave of selling reflects a broad retreat from overvalued growth assets.
But one signal is more worth watching than the price. On November 6, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $411.9 million, marking the second consecutive day of outflows, with BlackRock's IBIT alone withdrawing $403 million. Since November began, ETFs have had a cumulative net outflow of about $1.28 billion, with only one day of net inflow this month.
ETH faces an additional bearish factor. Ethereum developers delayed the activation of the Hoodi testnet for the Glamsterdam upgrade after audits found eight smart contract compatibility risks. On November 6, ETH ETFs had a net outflow of $93.18 million.
Technically, BTC's 75,000 level is a short-term key defense line. ETH's 2,200 is a psychological threshold.
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元The midterm elections had unexpected results, with traditional red states like Texas turning blue.
October non-farm payrolls also exceeded expectations, with a forecast of 65,000 but an actual of 165,000, and previous months' data were revised upward, strengthening the possibility of a Fed rate hike.
US stocks plunged after the midterm elections: there was a technical rebound yesterday, but overall market risk appetite has not fully recovered; the Nasdaq still fell 3.37% this week.
$BTC remains weak: it briefly dropped below $75,000 on Friday, then partially recovered, but the price is still significantly below this week's high.
Institutional outflows continue, with a net outflow of about $1.28 billion from BTC spot ETFs this week.
Gold is under pressure, and the dollar is strengthening: strong employment data boosted the dollar and Treasury yields; gold retreated on Friday but still rose about 5.2% for the week.
The focus next week is Tuesday at 21:30 with the October CPI.
US stocks rebounded on Friday but BTC did not; an important reason is that BTC is a liquidity-sensitive asset, so the stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls had a greater impact on BTC, and next week's CPI may determine whether BTC can hold $75,000 The two trades I made against the trend on the day the semiconductor sector crashed to a circuit breaker level turned out all green when I checked, feeling a bit dazed.
What was the environment like then? The non-farm payroll data blew past expectations, December rate hike expectations were fully priced in, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index hit its largest single-day drop since the pandemic, and the Korean stock market crashed straight to triggering a circuit breaker, with panic selling everywhere. On impulse, I went against the grain and bought long on SK Hynix with 30x leverage at a cost of 865.1, and also casually took a 100x leveraged long position on ETH around 2224, fully prepared for a short-term drawdown.
Now $SKHYNIX is up nearly 14%, and $ETH is even more impressive, hitting 102% floating profit. Together, these two small positions have earned me almost $13. It’s not false to say I’m a bit secretly happy, but then I ask myself: does this count as successfully bottom-fishing?
Honestly, I’m not confident. It’s the weekend market close with very thin liquidity, so prices aren’t very reliable. The real test will be when the US market opens Monday—whether the semiconductor sector can hold off selling pressure and if the sentiment recovery can continue. After all, the bearish fundamentals from the non-farm data remain, and the threat of a December rate hike hasn’t been lifted. This feels more like an emotional rebound after a crash, not a trend reversal.
Until I close the positions and take profits, floating gains are just numbers. I’ll hold and see how Monday goes. My position size is light, so losses won’t be too bad. If the rebound continues, then it’s a lucky catch.#BTC spot ETF has seen a cumulative net outflow of about $416 million this year. The strong nonfarm payroll data pushed the market to delay rate cut expectations.
The US added 165,000 nonfarm jobs in October, exceeding market expectations by about 65,000, and the unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%. After the data release, the US dollar index rose about 0.7%, and the implied market bet on a December rate hike increased from 70% to 78%. Strong employment indicates economic resilience, but for high-valuation assets, it also means interest rates may stay elevated longer.
The pressure on the crypto market is not only from contract liquidations. The US spot BTC ETF had a net outflow of $430.2 million on November 5, narrowing to about $51.7 million on November 6. The selling pressure has clearly eased but has not yet turned into net inflows. $BTC has returned near $76,000; what really needs to be tested is whether spot buying has returned.
I do not simply interpret a strong nonfarm payroll as bearish, nor do I see the narrowing ETF outflow as a bottom-fishing signal. If yields continue to rise and ETFs still have net outflows, the rebound is likely to lack follow-through; if capital flow stops bleeding first, the market will have a foundation for recovery.
What this data truly changes is the market's imagination about the interest rate path. Will you focus first on the dollar and yields, or on ETF capital flows?A company that hasn't gone public yet has already been shorted on-chain to a floating profit of 6.56 million USD.
In Hyperliquid's Anthropic pre-market contract, the address holding the top short position rolled over its position again early this morning, accumulating a short position of 36.95 million USD, with an average entry price of 1838 USD and a liquidation price of 2498.65 USD. The position is placed on the $HYPE ecosystem's order book.
First, look at the distance. From 1838 to 2498.65, there is more than a 30% gap; the price must rise over one-third for this position to be liquidated. The fact that they dare to add here indicates their judgment that the pre-market pricing is too high, not a short-term trade.
Next, look at the action. Rolling over the position is not opening it all at once; it uses the floating profit as margin to stack upwards. The 6.56 million floating profit has turned the initial risk into a safety cushion, and each subsequent add-on uses money provided by the market.
Mechanically, pre-market contracts fear liquidity the most. Without spot delivery, the mark price relies on a few quotes; a large order can distort the curve. The larger the position, the closer it is to pricing power, which is the biggest difference from mainstream perpetual contracts.
Their other leg is a 10x SK Hynix short position, with an average entry price of 1305 USD. On one side is the hottest private company in the AI narrative, and on the other is a storage leader, both betting in the same direction.
Worth considering is the exit: pre-market contracts have no delivery buy orders to take the position; closing can only find a counterparty, and the thicker the floating profit, the more someone needs to stand on the opposite side.US October nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, far exceeding expectations, with the probability of a December rate hike soaring to 85% at one point, but there is a clear divergence within the market: BTC spot ETF saw a single-day net outflow of $412 million, with a cumulative outflow of $1.28 billion in November; ETH ETF simultaneously outflowed $93.19 million, with BlackRock's ETHA alone accounting for $90.76 million.
$BTC: around 75,586. Intraday low at 74,762, the lowest since August 21. Resistance at 76,000 above, key support zone between 74,000–75,000 below; if broken, 69,000 will come into view. 4H long-short ratio is 2.01, bulls still relatively crowded, watch for a potential double bottom after weak rebound.
$ETH: around 2,226. ETFs are withdrawing, but a certain whale bought 8,775 ETH one hour ago for 19.7 million USDT at an average price of 2,245, increasing holdings to 23,097 ETH.
$SOL: around 89.65. Has fallen below 90, lowest at 88.24, currently testing the 200-day moving average at 89.03. RSI has entered oversold territory, but 4H long-short ratio of 3.10 is the highest among the three coins, indicating the heaviest bull crowding.
In short: Macro factors have pushed rate hike expectations back up, ETFs are withdrawing while whales are accumulating, BTC is breathing at 75,000, ETH is holding at 2,200, and SOL is undergoing oversold recovery at the 200-day moving average — all three coins are waiting for the same signal: when will the capital flow shift from defense to offense. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 【Bitcoin Enters Historical Bottoming Zone, Is the Opportunity Here?】
$BTC has dropped to around $76,000, and the AHR999 has fallen to 0.431, marking a return to the historical bottoming zone since the end of August. According to the historical experience of this indicator, the market price is significantly undervalued relative to long-term valuation; in the past, it has stayed below 0.45 for a total of 655 days. The 200-day dollar-cost averaging cost is about $72,800, only about 4% away from the current price, indicating that the long-term valuation advantage is emerging.
This decline is also accompanied by real capital outflows. On November 6 (U.S. Eastern trading day), the U.S. spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $412 million, marking two consecutive days of outflows, with a cumulative net outflow of about $1.3 billion since November. The risk appetite decline caused by the AI trading retreat has begun to transmit to institutional capital allocation.
It should now be seen that BTC is gradually entering a long-term value zone, rather than confirming a short-term bottom. AHR999 is suitable to assist with dollar-cost averaging and is not responsible for predicting the lowest point. The 200-day cost line near $72,000 to $73,000 is a support area worth watching next. For those preparing to hold BTC long-term, the odds of phased accumulation are becoming attractive, and there is no need to wait for all indicators to improve before taking action. 📉 $BTC has dropped from $80,000 to around $75,000. Is now really a good time to buy the dip?
Lately, many people have been asking me the same question: Bitcoin has fallen so much already, is it almost at the bottom? If I enter now, will I catch this rebound?
My view is: what’s most needed now is not rushing to buy the dip, but waiting for the market to give a genuine reversal signal.
To judge the market bottom, you can’t just look at how much the price has dropped. More importantly, observe the leverage structure, funding rates, and whether market sentiment has truly been cleared out.
Currently, there are two key indicators worth focusing on:
First, the perpetual contract funding rate has not yet shown an extreme negative value.
The current funding rate is still mildly positive, indicating that bullish sentiment has not completely disappeared, and the market has not yet shown obvious signs of extreme short overcrowding.
Historically, many important market bottoms have been accompanied by large-scale clearing of leveraged funds, extremely pessimistic sentiment, and funding rates entering deep negative territory.
Of course, a negative funding rate does not necessarily mean the bottom has been reached, but the current market clearly has not released a sufficiently clear extreme clearing signal.
Second, recent liquidations have mainly concentrated on the long side.
This means the previously accumulated bullish leverage is still being continuously cleared by the market.
When a large number of long positions are forced to close, selling pressure may further increase. If leverage is not fully cleared, even if the price experiences a short-term rebound, it does not necessarily mean the downtrend has ended.
There is also an easily overlooked issue:I'll make a counterintuitive judgment: the main force is inducing short selling.
The reason is simple. In the past 24 hours, liquidations totaled 218 million, with long positions liquidated at 143 million. The bulls have been almost completely cleaned out. But if you look at the funding rates, 16 out of 18 exchanges are still positive. What does this mean? The shorts haven't truly entered the market; the current sell-off is actually the longs unable to hold and getting cut out. The real big shorts haven't boarded yet. If the main force really wanted to push prices down, they would first drive the funding rates deeply negative to squeeze in the shorts before triggering a sharp spike down. Right now, the funding rates are mild, and the shorts haven't been fully fed.#美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $BTC $ETH Down 17% on Thursday, then up 11% on Friday: AMD flips in one day
Midterm elections concluded on Thursday, Democrats took both chambers
Market fears AI data centers will be choked by regulations
Nasdaq dropped 5.5% in one day, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 12%
The worst day in six years
Friday's tone suddenly changed
AMD closed at $449.04, up $44.64
Trading volume 45.2 million shares, double the usual
Intel +7.7%, NVIDIA +2.8%, Philadelphia Semiconductor +4.2%
Earnings report actually not bad
Q3 revenue $13.38 billion, up 45% year-over-year
Data center revenue doubled, EPS $2.09 beat expectations
Morgan Stanley raised target price to $550
I think this rebound is a "correction after overreaction," not a confirmed reversal
Thursday's drop was due to regulatory expectations, Friday's rise is about the earnings themselves
Regulation is just "getting tougher," not completely blocked
Invalidation level: AMD falls back below Thursday's close at $404.40
Or if Texas or federal level really issues data center restrictions
Then this rebound never happened
Do you think Friday's bullish candle is a bottom-fishing signal or a dead cat bounce?
$AMD $NVDA $INTC
#美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% Last night, despite the news, there was no major drop; the lowest point only dipped to 74800, which is a very precise level, exactly the lowest point of the last upward correction in September. Ethereum $ETH only dipped to 2207, not even breaking the previous low of 2170. I judge that the recent drop was too steep, and at this price level, there are many people bottom-fishing spot positions. Indeed, who can resist a Bitcoin that fell from 88000 to 75000, and an Ethereum that dropped from 2880 toNear 75K, the whale who precisely bottomed and topped last cycle re-entered the market to buy 3,009 BTC
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元
In the last cycle, this whale bought 50,000 BTC at an average price of about $20,000 at the end of 2022, gradually selling from 2024 to early 2025, with total profits of about $2 billion. After being silent for more than a year, yesterday it directly bought 3,009 BTC near 75K.
Historical actions have proven this whale's judgment, and I don't think this re-entry is accidental.
Next, I judge that $BTC is very likely to consolidate and form a bottom near 75K in the short term, with a continued bullish outlook in the medium to long term.
Trading advice:
Spot can be accumulated in batches within the 74.5K–75.5K range, adding more if it falls below 74K.
For contracts, take light long positions near 75K, set stop loss at 73.8K, with targets at 77.5K–80K.
There is still some room to dip, but the overall direction is upward. Strictly control position size to avoid heavy exposure.I noticed $ONE was pumping this afternoon, and now looking at it, it has actually risen 32%! Is it still worth chasing?
The 24-hour trading volume is 6 million USD. With this depth, a few million can create this pattern, so don’t treat it as market movement but as an event.
I dug into the reasons behind it: Harmony proposed shutting down the Layer 1 mainnet that has been running for seven years, migrating ONE to Ethereum as an ERC-20 token, airdropping to qualified wallets, and the team is shifting entirely to focus on AI video remix economy. The block explorer will permanently close on November 18.
Compared to the last tenfold pump from 0.0006 to 0.0066, there are two differences: last time it was purely storytelling, this time there is a clear date and migration path, which looks like progress; but last time it jumped from the floor, this time there is a whole range of trapped positions from 0.0025 to 0.0066 overhead, and every rise is met with people selling to break even.
So, can you buy? I only analyze, not invest. But if someone doesn’t want to miss out, you can take a small amount as a lottery ticket. In August, a cross-shard vulnerability minted 3 trillion ONE out of thin air, the chain even rolled back, and now TVL is only 9,000 USD. This is no longer a valuation issue but whether this asset still exists. Once the explorer closes on November 18, the story ends and it’s a vacuum.
If you really want to play: spot trading, position small enough to lose everything without pain, unconditionally exit if it falls below 0.0015. But on contracts, a single spike can wipe you out.Regulatory side: FinCEN cuts off MEXC Global's access to the U.S. financial system — accusing about $16 billion in transactions related to sanctions evasion and other issues.
They are using Section 9714: prohibiting U.S. financial institutions from transmitting funds with it, covering both fiat and crypto. This is not an OFAC-style full asset freeze list; the boundaries are different.
It takes effect about 30 days after the Federal Register publication — before publication ≠ completely cut off. The key is whether the dollar clearing/U.S. capital channels can be touched, which determines liquidity placement more than slogans.
Confidence: High | Disclosure (U.S. Treasury/FinCEN). The order ≠ OFAC naming and freezing; effectiveness depends on the publication date. Are you focusing more on the channels or on following the blacklist? $BTC $BTC Last night, the non-farm payroll data was released, directly rewriting market expectations. New jobs added were 165,000, far exceeding the expected 65,000, and the data for the previous two months was revised up by 84,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%.
After the data release, the market's bets on a December rate hike quickly rose, with the probability of a rate hike surging to around 80%. Interest rate futures weakened in tandem, and traders began to increase their bets on a rate hike.
But there is a contrast: the initial one-year inflation expectation for November was 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.7%. Inflation expectations are declining, yet employment is exceptionally strong, leaving room for the Federal Reserve to continue focusing on inflation.
Another key point is that the U.S. now only needs to add about 40,000 jobs per month to match the growth of the working-age population. This balance point has significantly dropped from 150,000 in 2024. The core reasons for the falling unemployment rate are labor supply contraction, tightened immigration, and increased retirements. Federal Reserve officials themselves do not currently view employment as an inflation risk.
Strong employment drives up rate hike expectations, and low unemployment means the Federal Reserve does not need to worry excessively about a recession. This non-farm payroll report directly tilts the December rate balance toward a rate hike side [Bitcoin mining difficulty has been below its peak for 374 days, miners are losing business to AI]
$BTC mining difficulty has remained below its historical peak for 374 consecutive days, setting a new record. This reflects the ongoing pressure on mining profit margins: in June 2026, difficulty dropped to 124.93T, then rebounded to 148.36T by the end of October, still short of the all-time high of 155.97T.
Currently, the total network hash rate has returned to about 1,060 EH/s, but on November 6, miners earned only about $32.4 per PH per day. Competition is recovering, yet the revenue per mining machine has not improved accordingly. Electricity costs, equipment depreciation, and financing expenses are pushing out less efficient miners.
Mining company Keel Infrastructure disclosed in its latest financial report that it has shut down some Bitcoin mining farms in the U.S., shifting focus to building AI and HPC data centers. It also cleared its BTC treasury in Q3 and generally opts to sell newly mined Bitcoin immediately. Mining companies are reallocating power, land, and hash rate resources toward AI businesses with higher profit expectations.
This has a twofold impact on BTC: continuous selling by miners increases spot supply pressure, and some mining farms exiting will alter the network's hash rate competition landscape. However, hash rate is still recovering, and the industry has not collectively collapsed. More mining companies are recalculating the return on investment for mining. AI is becoming a new competitor for electricity and capital in Bitcoin mining, and this resource competition may be more worthy of long-term attention than mere price declines.$BTC net outflow of 416 million USD this year, broken down it's an inflow of 25.63 billion almost completely offset by an outflow of 26.05 billion
The money is basically just circulating in place
The "support" role of the ETF hasn't disappeared, but it's moving back and forth between funds rather than steadily flowing in one direction
The direct impact is that $BTC is struggling to hold near 76,000
24-hour liquidation is 218 million, with long positions accounting for 143 million. The price is supported, but the strength of the support is not concentrated
At this position, bets are continuously placed both up and down, and whichever side triggers, neither side will pass smoothly
If IBIT continues large redemptions and FBTC only sporadically replenishes, the rebound pressure at 76,500 will be hard to truly overcome
ETF money is still on the market, but it is no longer a unified buying force; rather, it's a group of funds each calculating their own moves and exchanging hands
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 最脆弱的一环其实是情绪，不是价格。 你真的确定现在是底吗？ BTC回到75,000，ETH在2226附近，SOL守着90。后台问"能不能抄底"的人明显变多，可我盯着资金费率看了很久，心里反而更冷静了。价格会骗人，费率不太会。真正意义上的超卖和反转，通常伴随费率被压到明显负值，空头拥挤到极致，逼空才有燃料。现在呢，费率只是轻轻偏正，没有恐慌，也没有投降，情绪淡得像白开水🌙 这告诉我什么？更像低量下跌里的一次喘息，而不是该有的底。底从来不会安安静静地来，它得带点血腥味，止损被扫干净，空头仓位被挤到爆炸，费率红得发烫，那才叫燃料充足。眼下燃料不够，点火也只是假烟花。 放到板块轮动里看更清楚。BTC还在高位区间撑住体面，ETH相对偏软，SOL守着90但弹性一般，山寨的情绪更是提不起劲。这种结构说明风险偏好没有真正回来，大家只是在等一个理由，而不是在抢筹码。偏多的路径当然有：一旦费率转负、空头堆起来，反弹会很快很急。但风险也明摆着，如果情绪继续这么温吞，横盘磨人比下跌更消耗耐心，山寨会先扛不住。 抄底从来不是手速比赛，是耐力比赛。手快的接飞刀，会等的捡筹码。我宁愿在场外多看一会儿，也不想在阴跌I feel that this wave is not just a fake-out shakeout, but a real capital flight 😮💨
Compared to candlesticks, capital flow is a signal that deserves more caution.
One-hour capital data: BTC contracts net outflow of 132 million, spot market simultaneously outflow of 43.39 million; ETH contracts outflow of 39.31 million, but spot market quietly received 12.42 million; SOL is the weakest, with both contracts and spot outflowing a total of 24.39 million.
The interpretation is very clear: BTC sees leveraged longs and spot funds exiting simultaneously, no one is willing to actively take over; ETH, although it has a larger drop, already has funds quietly absorbing in the spot market; SOL’s selling pressure has not yet been fully released, short-term is weak.
Combined with the Nasdaq’s big drop and semiconductor sector collapse, this decline is not just a weakness in crypto but a synchronized de-risking of global risk assets.
Key supports: BTC 75,500–76,000, ETH 2200, SOL 88.
Chasing shorts now is easy to get slapped by a quick rebound, and bottom fishing lacks capital confirmation.
Don’t rush to guess the bottom yet; with such volatile market swings, controlling position size and being able to sleep peacefully is already a win. Today there was a rather awkward scene: on one side, the Qatari Prime Minister publicly said that the indirect talks between the US and Iran "have made great progress," while on the other side, Iranian media reported that two missiles hit Qeshm Island, with no official statement on the losses yet. On the same timeline, negotiations and fighting are happening simultaneously.
Actually, the negotiation track is not a single line but three: Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed set the tone that "a solution can be reached"; US Vice President Pence has been involved in indirect talks with Iran over the past two weeks; Pakistan Army Chief of Staff Munir has also been pulled into the communication chain. The simultaneous movement of these three lines indicates that the driving force is not coming from just one side.
Now looking at the fighting track. Iran proposed a seven-day plan in September with very specific conditions: lifting the port blockade, unfreezing assets, and reopening waterways. This plan has been rejected by Trump so far. With its biggest concession on the table but getting nothing in return, the motivation to create pressure outside the negotiation table has always existed.
On November 6, Qatar's Emir Tamim had a phone call with Trump, discussing easing tensions and promoting a comprehensive agreement. This call happened the day before the missile news—high-level officials are laying the groundwork while ground-level friction proceeds at its own pace.
The only real variable worth watching is whether working-level technical talks will start in the coming days. This is the threshold from statements to text. If this step cannot be reached, all the previous "great progress" is just atmosphere. For assets like $BTC, easing tensions is priced up step by step as the negotiation level rises. $BZ is the authentic commodity! Recently, oil prices have plummeted from $114 all the way down to $97, a 13% drop in a single week, breaking below the $100 mark! Why the crash? Progress in US-Iran negotiations in the Middle East, and the de-escalation of conflicts between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia have drained all geopolitical premiums. On top of that, with the Democrats sweeping Congress, market expectations for global energy demand have cooled off, and hedge funds have cut their long crude positions by the largest margin since June. Now at $97, technically it's severely oversold; today's small rebound of 0.62% is a sign of stabilization. But brothers, don't rush to bottom-fish—oil prices depend on the Middle East's mood—when fighting breaks out, prices surge; when negotiations happen, prices plunge. The sideways movement at $97 indicates the market is waiting for the next catalyst. In the short term, $95 is a strong support; breaking below $90 could lead to $85; but if the Middle East stirs up trouble again, a bullish candle pulling back to $105 is not a dream. Using crude oil as a hedge is fine, but don't use high leverage to bet on direction!US October non-farm payrolls landed with an increase of 165,000 jobs, stronger than expected, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%😮💨
The stronger the economic resilience, the more the Fed delays rate cut expectations, with the dollar and US Treasury yields rising in tandem. This positive data for the real economy is actually bearish for the crypto space.
The real pressure is on liquidity: On November 6, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of 411.9 million, marking two consecutive days of large-scale exits, with nearly 1.9 billion USD withdrawn over the past 7 trading days. While US tech stocks have at least seen an oversold rebound, incremental buying for BTC remains absent.
The current market is particularly conflicted: shorts just went through a wave of liquidations and dare not chase further, while bottom-fishing funds are unwilling to actively push prices up. The price looks stabilized, but volume is not keeping up.
This feels more like a brief breather after a big drop, not a reversal. A true stabilization signal requires ETF outflows to stop and volume to continuously expand. Before that, rebounds are easily cashed out by funds, causing choppy swings that shake out traders.
The most frustrating thing at this stage is not being wrong on direction, but repeatedly getting harvested by volatility. Caution is essential in trading. ETH rebound retraced, I still don't consider it stabilized.
Market status as of 11/7 23:04 Taipei time: ETH around 2,245, down about 8.4% from the 11/4 high of 2,450, only about 1.8% above the 11/5 low of 2,206.28; ETH/BTC around 0.0296, relative strength is also retreating.
ETF data as of 11/6: US spot ETH ETFs had net outflows for two consecutive days, with a total net outflow of $365.2 million in the first five trading days of November, with only one day of net inflow. One rebound does not prove sustained capital return.
I look at three conditions: daily chart holding above 2,206 and rising back above 2,300; ETF showing net inflows again, preferably ETHA turning positive; ETH/BTC rising back near 0.030. Until these are met, I still view it as low-level oscillation.
OWL AI is a decentralized portfolio strategy platform. Writing adjustment conditions as public, on-chain verifiable strategies, allowing the operator's actions to be compared against preset rules, is the transparency I focus on.
#ETH $ETH Two missiles hit Qeshm Island, Trump characterized it as a "small strike," and Iran immediately shot down an MQ-9 drone, yet gold prices fell 0.6% on Friday, closing near $4063. $BTC $ETH $SNDK The issue is not that safe havens are useless, but that the market has already priced in "peace" in advance. Consider three accounts: Brent April contracts are at $88.42, July and later contracts are below $84, oil prices have plunged about 13% to 16% this week, indicating funds are betting unilaterally on a quick end to the conflict. Negotiations have not landed. Iran demands the implementation of seven conditions first and no longer trusts US paper promises. The military pace is still advancing. Three aircraft carriers are expected to be in place by late November, and New York bank Levin also warns that the long-term Iran conflict black swan has not been fully priced in. So safe havens are not absent, but they won't come in the "rush to gold on the day of the incident" manner. More likely, the market will reconcile the previously prepaid peace expectations. In terms of positions, it can be divided into three steps: First, separate tactical and strategic. Event pulses are suitable for watching the dollar and crude oil, with weekly volatility already reaching $19; strategic allocation is for gold, don't use short-term tools for long-term work. Second, buy gold on dips in batches, don't chase highs. Gold is now near $4063, with $4000 to $4020 below as a safer observation zone. Global central banks bought 321 tons of gold in Q3, a 42% year-on-year increase; interest rate suppression is a short-term pulse, central bank gold buying is a medium-term structure. Avoid chasing near $4100. Third, asPrice $BTC: 75,994.3$ 24-hour change rate is relatively stable.
The 4-hour chart shows weakness; the daily chart still maintains an upward trend. The EMA indicator on the daily chart has not yet reflected this trend.
On the closing price K-line, the retracement line slopes downward and is below the signal line. This indicator alone is insufficient to conclude a price trend reversal.
Support level 75,534.45: A daily close below this value will confirm the loss of support.Both H4 and D1 $SHIB are sloping downward. This is the context for interpreting the Bollinger Bands index.
Price SHIB: $0.000004514 with a slight decrease in the 24-hour change rate.
Support at 0.00000444: Closing below this value on H4 will confirm the loss of support.
According to the Bollinger Bands indicator, the daily closing price is within the range. A breakout supported by the closing price is needed to give a clearer signal. Both the 4-hour and daily charts show a bearish trend.$XLU
In a high interest rate environment, how do utilities maintain their appeal?
The resilience of U.S. employment means expectations for rapid easing lack direct confirmation. Utilities have relatively stable demand and require ongoing capital investment, so it's not just about dividend yield.
Expanding the grid and adding new power supply can increase the future asset base, provided regulators allow reasonable returns and projects can be commissioned on time. If financing costs rise first, cash returns may be delayed.
I observe capital expenditures, financing arrangements, and approved returns. Growth is steadier if project execution aligns with regulatory recovery; if investments increase but cannot be converted into revenue promptly, the defensive nature may not fully offset cash flow pressure.I've been watching the US stock market all week.
The Nasdaq dropped 3.4% this week, falling for the 4th consecutive week. On Thursday, due to the midterm election results, the market feared tighter AI regulations, and chip stocks were hit hard. On Friday, AMD rebounded 11%, while Nvidia only recovered 2.8%.
My view: This is a rebound after an oversell, not a bottom. With the strong non-farm payrolls, if Tuesday's CPI exceeds expectations again (month-over-month 0.3%), the rate hike expectations will only harden, and high-valuation chip stocks will take another hit.
What I'll do: I won't add positions over the weekend; I'll keep cash and wait for the data at 9:30 PM Tuesday, then decide whether to buy.
When the CPI comes out, do you think it will be above or below 0.3%?
This is not investment advice
#存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #USStocks #CPI #AI$ZEC Five little-known facts, each of which can explain why you lose money.
1. 100x leverage doesn't mean liquidation happens only if the price drops 1%, but rather liquidation occurs if it drops 0.5%.
100x means a 1% margin, but there are also maintenance margin and fees. BTC's maintenance margin rate is about 0.4%-0.5%, so the actual liquidation price is around -0.5%.
The same applies for 20x: it's not actually -5%, but about -4.5%.
The leverage's margin for error is even narrower than you think.
2. Fees can eat up half of your principal in a year.
Assuming you use 10% of your funds each time with 10x leverage, the nominal position equals your entire principal. The one-way fee is 0.05%, so opening and closing a position costs 0.1%.
Two trades a day equals 0.2%. Over 250 trading days, 50% of your principal goes to the exchange.
You lose to fees before you even lose to the market.
3. Funding rate is an invisible holding cost.
0.01% every 8 hours, three times a day, about 11% annually.
Long-term longs effectively pay an 11% "position tax" per year. Even if the market doesn't move, you're still losing.
4. Adding to a profitable position raises your average cost.
Buying 10,000 U at 10U, then adding another 10,000 U at 20U, your average price becomes 15U.
If the price pulls back 25%, you go from unrealized profit to unrealized loss.
Adding to a position amplifies both gains and costs simultaneously; it’s not a free way to boost profits After the major crash, the market entered a breathing period, but smart money did not rush to go long; instead, it quietly increased short bets.
$BTC 76,036: In the past 24 hours, it has repeatedly tugged between 75,000 and 76,000, with ETF single-day net outflows close to $400 million; smart money long positions are down to only 19%, nearly 80% betting on shorts, and the 80,000 mark has become a strong resistance.
$ETH 2,245: After hitting a high of 2,450 and being resisted, it fell back to daily support near 2,240. Although a whale just spent 19.7 million USDT to buy 8,775 ETH at an average price of 2,245, ETF continuous outflows and liquidation risks still suppress the rebound.
Summary: Leverage has been significantly cleaned up, but incremental ETF funds have not yet returned. The market is in a phase of "stock repair, incremental observation," with sideways consolidation and bottoming still the main theme. #BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $1.28 billion withdrawn in one week, BTC still stands above $76,000.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $1.282 billion this week, with 4 out of 5 trading days showing net outflows.
On Friday alone, $412 million was withdrawn, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for $403 million.
IBIT has cumulatively withdrawn $1.21 billion this week, with net outflows for 6 consecutive trading days.
However, Fidelity's FBTC had a net inflow of $43 million on Friday, so not everyone is running.
On Thursday, BTC briefly fell below $75,000, hitting a low of about $74,800, the lowest since August.
Over $1 billion in liquidations occurred across the entire network within 24 hours.
I think money is moving out but the price hasn't collapsed, indicating that spot buyers are stepping in; the invalidation point is BTC closing below $75,000 on the daily chart, or IBIT having a single-day outflow exceeding $400 million again.
Choose one: With ETFs withdrawing $1.28 billion in a week, do you think institutions are taking profits or is bull market capital retreating?
$BTC $IBIT $FBTC
#比特币BIP-110分叉停滞，矿工支持不足 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4%
After a sharp plunge in US stocks, tech stocks rebounded, but the Nasdaq weekly chart still fell about 3.4%.
Although the Nasdaq market saw a technical rebound on Friday following a severe midweek sell-off, the weekly chart recorded a rare "four consecutive declines." From the perspective of technical patterns and macro-level dynamics, the Nasdaq is engaged in a critical defense battle at the lower boundary of its mid-term upward channel. The market's main logic has shifted from unilateral bullishness to a "high volatility, high differentiation defensive game."
Goldman Sachs expects cloud giants' AI CapEx to reach $800 billion by 2026, but at least $300 billion in annual AI revenue is needed to justify its financial rationality. The market's tolerance for giants blindly burning money has been exhausted. To make matters worse, after the midterm elections, states like Texas, Ohio, and Georgia have tightened approvals for power, water resources, and environmental reviews for large AI data centers, causing some projects to be suspended or delayed, directly hitting the hardware expansion expectations on the weekly level.
Following the midterm elections, market expectations for accelerated diplomatic resolutions in the Middle East have risen, leading to an over 8% plunge in crude oil prices. If oil prices continue to decline, it could ease inflation concerns and lower long-term US Treasury yields, providing breathing room for the Nasdaq.
Waiting for signals next week $UNI
Uniswap helped establish decentralized token swapping as a major component of crypto's financial infrastructure. Its long-term position depends on maintaining competitive liquidity, efficient execution, and relevance across blockchain ecosystems. One important question remains: how effectively can protocol-level economic activity translate into sustainable value for UNI holders? Governance influence and protocol adoption are related, but they are not identical.$ZEC dropped from 2300 to 1200, more than halved.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温
Before the hard fork, it rose to 2300, and I even said this wave of privacy coin market was about to take off. So what happened? After the hard fork, the good news was all priced in, and it crashed straight down from the high point, dropping nearly half.
This is the nature of altcoins — they soar when expectations are hyped, but crash hard when reality hits. Before the hard fork, everyone was betting and it went up; after the hard fork, those who needed to sell sold, those who needed to run ran, and it just collapsed.
Now it has fallen again from the high point. Personally, I’m just watching, not bottom fishing. Do you think 1200 is cheap? It has dropped a lot from 2300, but how do you know how much further it can fall? Privacy coins are like this: they go to the moon when hyped, but go underground when not.
If you really want to bottom fish privacy coins, wait until it stops hitting new lows for several consecutive days before considering. Now? I’m not catching a falling knife.
What about you? $ZEC dropped from 2300 to 1200, do you think it has lost its value or will it keep falling?