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🚨 BREAKING: Bitcoin open interest has reached the exact levels where MAJOR SHORT SQUEEZES have historically occurred.
The last 3 times this happened, $BTC saw massive pumps.
#USJobsBeatExpectations #软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ SoftBank Group will release its FY2026 Q2 financial report on November 10, with the market focusing on the financial results of its AI sector bets. Through Vision Fund II, SoftBank has completed an additional $30 billion investment in OpenAI's third round, with a total cumulative investment of $64.6 billion, corresponding to about a 13% stake, making it one of OpenAI's most important investors.
The core highlights of this financial report focus on the Vision Fund's investment gains and losses, changes in the fair value of underlying assets, and the group's financing pressure. To complete this huge capital outlay, SoftBank arranged financing tools such as foreign currency senior notes, and the large capital investment will be directly reflected in liabilities and cash flow data. Fluctuations in OpenAI's valuation will directly affect the Vision Fund's book gains or impairments, impacting SoftBank's overall net asset performance.
The high volatility of AI investments is the biggest variable. If OpenAI's valuation continues to rise, it will continuously increase SoftBank's investment income; if the AI sector valuation corrects, the huge holdings may bring asset impairment risks. The market will use this financial report to judge the sustainability of SoftBank's continued AI funding and the ability of Masayoshi Son's AI investment strategy to deliver. $BTC $ETH $SNDK 反弹到八万二，不等于行情已经反转；真正要看的，是到了那里还能不能站住。@张教主。 这场对 $BTC 的判断并不是闭眼看涨，而是先拿现货，等价格走到关键位置，再分辨这究竟是一段反弹，还是更强行情的起点。他反复提醒：方向看对了，合约仓位也未必能活到兑现那一天。 先把周末的横盘和后面的趋势分开。面对反弹没力度的疑问，他没有把一天的震荡直接定义成失败，而是把下一步确认放到周一：眼前的小高点能不能冲出去，冲出去以后能不能踩住，再继续往上走。只有这样的强势表现出现，他才会提高对后续行情的预期。还没走出来，就不能拿希望替代确认。 小级别上，他保留了一个让合约多头很难受的剧本：价格可能先往下再扫一次流动性，随后收回来，继续在区间里震荡。前一次假跌破，并不保证后面不会再来一次。对现货来说，这可能只是持有过程中的波动；对止损贴着低点、仓位又重的人来说，同样一段走势却可能先把人清出去，再沿原先判断的方向运行。 他说到七万四千三附近的止损时，重点也不是替观众决定该不该挪，而是提醒那个位置仍可能被再次扫到。这不是取消止损的理由，更不是让人把亏损无限往下扛。恰恰相反，问题在于开仓之前有没有把这种可能性算进风险里，The market's last bullish hope did not survive the payrolls print. US jobs data came in far above expectations, reviving the case for tighter policy, and the dollar and Treasury yields rose together. $BTC could not even defend its psychological levels, sliding to 74,877 before stabilising near 75,700. That is the tell. Good macro data should have been a relief; instead it hardened rate expectations and squeezed the most rate-sensitive assets. Crypto is trading as a liquidity barometer, not a groTrump has been in business for decades, long handling issues of interest exchange, negotiation, and risk.
He cannot be unaware of the toughness of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, nor can he be unaware that Iran is not a country that would easily surrender after a few rounds of bombing.
Currently, Trump has deployed the U.S. Army's elite 82nd Airborne Division, the U.S. Marine Corps' 31st Expeditionary Unit, the U.S. Navy SEALs, and Army Rangers to the Middle East,
establishing a multi-layered military deployment including the Air Force, Navy (three carrier strike groups), Marine Corps (two amphibious landing groups), airborne troops, and special operations forces, totaling 60,000 troops!
Based on the current U.S. military deployment in the Middle East and the reinforcements being sent there, it is still insufficient to overthrow the Iranian regime, but it can completely shatter Iran's economic lifeline!
Oil price risks will persist for a long time, and the U.S. stock market will continue to be under pressure! If an energy shock and AI valuation adjustment happen simultaneously, that would be even more interesting!$BZ #SoftBank's Heavy Bet on OpenAI: Can Q2 Earnings Deliver Impressive Results? In a nutshell
SoftBank's Q2 performance heavily depends on the fair value appreciation of its OpenAI equity; the book profit has a good chance to be strong but is unrealized and not cash; Arm is the stable foundation, while the biggest risk lies in OpenAI's ongoing massive losses, large investment exposure, liquidity, and leverage risks, making it difficult to deliver solid, sustainable impressive results.
Key Points
1. Bet Overview
SoftBank has committed a total investment of about $64.6 billion in OpenAI, targeting approximately 13% ownership, making it the second-largest shareholder after Microsoft; this investment is held in Vision Fund 2, and is accounted for at the latest financing round valuation ($500 billion), with valuation changes directly determining SoftBank's current investment income and being the biggest variable in the financial report. At the same time, SoftBank co-develops the Stargate computing power project with OpenAI and Oracle, representing a heavy-asset, long-term AI layout.
2. Positive Highlights (likely to create "impressive book" results)
- Stable or upward OpenAI valuation → brings large unrealized investment gains, boosting group net profit and net asset value (NAV) significantly;
- Arm's resilient performance and stable dividends serve as SoftBank's cash flow ballast, hedging high-risk AI investments;
- The Japanese joint venture SB OAI Japan delivers OpenAI services to enterprises, opening local B2B commercialization leads, representing a new growth point in SoftBank's own operations.
3. Core Risks (market's main concern and financial report's deduction points)
- OpenAI is still burning huge cash, revenueRocket Lab ($RKLB) Q3 Earnings Forecast: I choose YES, leaning towards revenue beating expectations.
There are three main reasons:
① High certainty of growth in launch business. Q3 Electron completed 6 orbital launches, while Q2 had only 4 similar launches with revenue mainly recognized in the same quarter. Launch business revenue is expected to grow from $44.6 million in Q2 to about $59.8 million.
② Continuous expansion of satellite manufacturing business. Q2 space systems business revenue reached $189.5 million. The acquisitions of Mynaric and Motiv contributed full quarter revenue in Q3, combined with ongoing satellite manufacturing order deliveries, expected to push this business beyond $200 million.
③ Backlog provides support. At the end of Q2, backlog reached $2.36 billion, a 137% year-over-year increase. The company expects to recognize about 45.5% of this revenue in the next 12 months, providing strong support for future growth.
Currently, the market expects Q3 revenue around $257 million, with company guidance between $250 million and $265 million. I personally expect actual revenue near $260 million, slightly exceeding market expectations.
However, Q3 gross margin guidance is only 29% to 31%, with R&D investment still high, posing a risk of EPS falling short of expectations.
Overall judgment: choose YES, mainly optimistic about revenue beating expectations, confidence about 60%. A flat BTC is not a calm market. It is a deaf index.
Three free checks:
1) Funding: SOL 0.0046%, BTC 0.0067% - spot sells, not leverage.
2) ETH/BTC 0.0295, ETH the only green cap: rotation, not exit.
3) Turnover per 1%: ZEC $7.5M, PEPE $2.8M - 14x less money.
My read: rotation. I'd flip if funding passes 0.05%.
Rotation or distribution - which leg?
Crypto is high-risk. Personal observation only, not investment advice. DYOR.
$SOL $BTC $PEPE #Solana #OKXOrbit #Crypto #AltcoinsWhy is HYPE Treasury Company on Nasdaq applying for a US futures brokerage license?
Hyperliquid Strategies' subsidiary HypeStrat Markets is applying for an FCM license through the NFA/CFTC route: if approved, it can handle HIP-3 licensed perpetual accounts for US clients—the blockchain remains a neutral infrastructure, and compliance is layered on the account side. The application was submitted around August and is still pending; the company itself stated "the timing and outcome are uncertain."
A note from the quarterly report: revenue is about $13.3 million, with the majority of net profit still coming from HYPE unrealized gains—the application form and the ledger are two different things.
Confidence level: medium-high | company disclosure + media reports. Application ≠ approval, and certainly does not mean US users can open positions tomorrow. Are you more focused on the license progress or on whether anyone is actually deploying HIP-3? $BTC #RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？
#RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？
$RKLB is getting closer to its post-market earnings report on November 9, and the feeling of holding your breath waiting for the landing is truly a unique experience for aerospace stocks 🚀
The topic views have surged to 404,800, and the attention is visibly rising, but market sentiment remains calm, even leaning pessimistic: only 27% of voters believe the earnings will beat expectations, while a full 73% expect it to miss; trading volume has reached 391,500, with intense long-short battles, yet the stock price is barely moving, up just +0.07%, almost flat.
After following RKLB for a while, you get this "tug-of-war without movement" feeling.
Electron launch business is a steady foundation, with revenue guidance pinned at 250–265 million, which everyone understands, making it hard to deliver big surprises. What everyone truly cares about is Neutron. Trading this stock has never been about current revenue, but betting on whether that reusable rocket can be delivered on time in the future.
The most frustrating experience is this: obviously everyone is discussing it and watching it, but the price remains stagnant. Everyone is holding their breath waiting for the earnings report moment. As soon as any good news about Neutron comes out, the calm market can instantly explode; but if progress is delayed, the already pessimistic market sentiment immediately weighs down the price. $BTC Market Analysis
Conclusion: Currently, there is insufficient strong rebound signal. The recovery after the main control line break is not straightforward. There are two response strategies for the weekend!
Scenario 1: Stabilize above 76360 in the next two days, bullish towards 77330-78420 (30 min / 1H MA250).
Scenario 2: Weak oscillation over the weekend fails to break through 76350, or dips to new lows at 73348-72680 (daily MA250) before rising again.ETH and SOL are also flowing out; is market risk spreading?
This time, it's not only BTC ETFs showing negative numbers; ETH and SOL products have not turned positive either. In the past two trading days, BTC spot ETFs have had a combined net outflow of about $842.1 million.
Let's first look at $ETH: around $2,243 at 12:00 UTC on November 7, 24h +0.03%; perpetual open interest across three exchanges is about $8.6 billion. The restrained price reminds us not to just listen to macro slogans.
Next, $SOL: about $89.93, 24h -0.47%; aggregated open interest daily change -5.2%. High elasticity has not been fully released.
Another comparison is $BTC: about $75,917, 24h -0.21%; perpetual open interest across three exchanges is about $15.2 billion. The market's support still needs spot trading confirmation.
Finally, putting them together, the cross-asset simultaneous outflow indicates institutional channels are cautious, but price elasticity and capital scale differ among coins.
If you could only wait for one signal, would you want BTC funds to stop bleeding, or all three types of funds to turn positive together?
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% In Q3 2026, $TRX processed 1.08 billion transactions, a year-on-year increase of 31.19%.
TRON's transaction volume in the third quarter continued to maintain historic highs.
• Total transaction volume in Q3 2026: 1.08 billion transactions, up 31.19% year-on-year
• Average processing speed this quarter reached 135.76 TPS
• The fourth quarter is expected to maintain this record, with 364.4 million transactions in the past 30 days.
The steady growth in transaction volume indicates effective utilization of the TRON network, especially in the stablecoin transfer sector. However, an increase in transaction volume does not necessarily mean a rise in TRX price, as Tron’s recent weekly purchases of TRX have been worth less than $50,000, indicating quite limited funding demand. I believe the TRX price is likely to remain sideways, following the overall market trend. I only see this as a positive signal for the platform itself, but I do not dare to assert that this will be a driver for price increases.
People wonder whether such a large user network is enough to push up the price of TRX, or if its price will still depend on BTC.“AI meme” has once again been pushed to the front by ACT, and I almost thought the entire Solana sentiment chain was heating up. But when I flipped to PUMP, I realized I was imagining things too quickly.
Let's first look at the prices. BTC is almost flat, SOL dropped 0.79%, while ACT rose 14.86%, with a volatility of 25.59%. However, it is still about 7.46% away from its high point, so this baton isn't held very steadily.
Next, let's look at the funds. ACT's trading volume is about 1.74 million USDT, PUMP's is about 6.33 million USDT, but the latter dropped 10.15%. More active trading doesn't mean stronger prices; even within the same ecosystem chain, they didn't move forward together.
Finally, the funds connect to that term: AI meme. For now, I lean towards it being "short-term noise," not because I find the term unattractive, but because ACT's performance alone isn't enough for me to treat this local anomaly as a narrative comeback. My brain that chases hot terms shouldn't rush to add drama.
Do you stand by "the keyword is still passing the baton," or "it's just short-term noise"? Leaving aside ACT's recent gains, how many more rounds of discussion can the term "AI meme" sustain? #OKX星球话题来啦 $ACT $PUMP Today I did a long-term return comparison between $XAU and $QQQ, and the results are really quite interesting!
Both are types of assets, but just different purchase times, and the final results differ so much!
The first chart shows holding QQQ continuously from its inception in 1999 until now:
Gold has accumulated an increase of about 1321%, QQQ about 1211%, surprisingly close, with gold slightly ahead!
The second chart, if unlucky, buying right at the 2000 internet bubble peak:
Gold rose about 1313%, but QQQ only 472%.
This time gold really left QQQ far behind!
The third chart, changing the time, buying from the top of gold’s previous bull market in 2011:
QQQ rose about 1135%, but gold only about 120%!
This time it’s completely reversed, QQQ left gold far behind.
After seeing these three charts, my biggest takeaway is: sometimes what you buy is important, but when you buy is equally important! Buying even the best assets at high valuations may require a long time to digest the bubble. Conversely, buying during market downturns can lead to completely different long-term returns.
Of course, these are just price appreciation comparisons on the charts, without uniformly accounting for dividend reinvestment and other factors. Both gold and QQQ have their own long-term investment value and have moments that make investors question their decisions.$XAUT is a gold token issued by Tether, with 1 token = 1 ounce of physical gold; OKX's gold perpetual is called $XAU. This week, gold has been the most stable asset overall.
What happened: The election results came in, the Republicans lost Congress, and the market bought into a "divided government" — the US dollar fell, yields dropped, and gold surged 2.8% on Wednesday alone, jumping from 3,945 straight to 4,056; on Thursday, it further climbed to 4,152, fueled by safe-haven demand amid the US stock market crash. $BTC struggled around 75,000 during the same period, with only gold fully playing the safe-haven role.
The cost was borne by the shorts: this week, short liquidations totaled about $66 million, while longs only saw $3 million; those who tried to top out were forced out. But leverage has mostly been burned off: positions have dropped by over 30%, funding rates are near zero, and now spot prices are setting the tone.
Currently, COMEX is closed for the weekend, and OKX's 4,077 price is just a shadow price, with less than a million traded in an hour, so don't interpret weekend fluctuations as signals.
The key verification point is Monday: how COMEX opens relative to 4,077 and where it closes in the first hour. Holding above 4,152 points to 4,200; if it first dips, 4,028 and 4,000 are the touchstones for this breakout—breaking below them would indicate the election rally is set to retrace.#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元
$BTC The current market is basically a half-dead stalemate. The selling pressure has indeed been mostly exhausted, the short momentum is fading, but the big money off-exchange is completely dormant, with no sign of buying activity at all. Deleveraging is basically over, but the macro environment and institutional funds remain bearish, with no confidence to push the market up.
The strength contrast is very clear, $ETH is now a soft target, much weaker than BTC, and there is a cascading liquidation point hanging overhead. If that triggers, it will definitely cause a chain stampede.
Looking at structural data, the 30-day range is between 74,888 and 84,898, and the current price is stuck rubbing the lower boundary intensely. The most fatal signal is extremely low volume; Binance’s ten high-liquidity samples only traded just over 2.2 billion, shrinking nearly 40%; Ethereum is even worse, shrinking over 40%. What does this data mean? There are indeed fewer stop-loss cuts, but no one dares to step in to catch the falling knife.
Based on the current framework, the overall direction is still bearish, in a downtrend cycle. At times like this, total position size should definitely not exceed 30%, single trade risk strictly capped at 0.3%, and absolutely no adding long positions against the trend.
Low-volume slow decline is the most exhausting; don’t guess the bottom blindly, wait for right-side signals before making a move. Are you currently sitting out watching, or holding half your position and toughing it out?
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温
#美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% #英伟达冲击千亿美元季度营收纪录
$NVDA Nvidia's earnings exceed expectations, but political discounts are rewriting valuation anchors
Nvidia's FY2027 Q3 revenue guidance midpoint is $108 billion, about 2.7% higher than Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $105.155 billion, and does not yet include China data center revenue, so the revenue side is indeed above expectations
However, the Non-GAAP gross margin guidance drops to 74%, with Q4 expected to further slide to a low range of 71%–72%. The signal of "revenue growth without profit growth" has already appeared, which is the key reason the market is not buying it
Where is Nvidia's bottom?
On November 5, it plunged 9.26% to close at $181.60, the lowest since April 2026, retreating more than 25% from the October high of $243.37
Technical support is around $175–180, while the 52-week low points to $160–165
The midterm elections have ended, with a big win for the Democrats. After the midterms, the Democrats took control of both houses, and senior officials quickly sent signals targeting data center construction and AI expansion
Texas, a key state accounting for 27% of the planned data center capacity in the US, also elected a Democratic governor, and Nvidia fell 8% that day
Morgan Stanley's optimistic scenario is $350, corresponding to about 22x PE in 2027, assuming regulation remains at the statement level, Rubin's ramp-up goes smoothly, and gross margin stabilizes
The pessimistic scenario is $160, corresponding to about 13x PE, roughly coinciding with the technical low of $165. Note the risks Liquidation data cools off overnight: from 1.256 billion to 355 million
24-hour total network liquidation dropped to $355 million, with 99,000 people liquidated; the previous day was $1.256 billion and 238,000 people, shrinking by about two-thirds. The largest single liquidation was on Binance ETH, $2.87 million, significantly reduced from yesterday's $10.93 million.
Structural shift observed. The 24-hour window still mainly long positions, accounting for 73.2%; but the short-term trend has changed: in the last hour, liquidations totaled $5.74 million, with shorts at $4.7 million; in 4 hours, liquidations reached $13.55 million, shorts at $9.15 million. BTC rebounded near 74,762; after breaking below 75,000 yesterday, short sellers were liquidated on the rebound.
Coin differentiation. BTC liquidations at $108 million, longs accounting for 81.4%, still mainly long position clearings; ETH liquidations at $60.23 million. ZEC and SOXS are in the red, shorts liquidated, small coins rebounded simultaneously.
Total volume dropped from 1.2 billion to 350 million, indicating the most intense long liquidation phase has passed. However, short-term short liquidations seem more like a corrective rebound due to thin weekend liquidity, so a trend reversal cannot yet be confirmed. "Volatility is not the bottom, it's chips holding firm (￣▽￣;)"
BTC is repeatedly tugging between $75,000 and $78,000, ETH is narrowly consolidating between $2,200 and $2,300; in October, both fell by 7.3% and 16% respectively, with market breadth clearly shrinking. On the surface, prices are sideways, but in reality, the capital structure is conflicted: BTC and ETH spot ETFs are both seeing net outflows, ETH lost $1.6 billion in a single month, and institutional demand is shifting toward tactical contraction (・_・;)
More subtly, the total open interest in the market has hit a 12-month low, leverage is basically cleared out, yet perpetual funding rates remain positive—longs are being washed out on one side, but still paying a "bullish fee" on the other. Chips are leaving, but stubbornness remains (｡•́︿•̀｡)
Going forward, it looks more like "probing the bottom first, then diverging," rather than flooring the gas pedal for a breakout. 10x Research believes BTC still has a chance to reach $90,000 by year-end, but the premise is first to test $77,000–$79,000 for a final shakeout; ETH is likely weaker than BTC because value continues to flow to Layer 2, and holders' returns feel insufficient (￣▽￣)ゞ
The real turning signal is not a single rebound bullish candle, but when funding rates turn negative: longs admit defeat, and the bottom structure is established. Before that, rebounds are mostly repairs, not reversals. Don't mistake a bounce for a reversal ヾ(≧▽≦*)o
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 BTC / ETH Today's Analysis
Both are in a state of "selling pressure exhaustion but no buying interest yet," with macro and institutional funds still bearish, and derivatives deleveraging basically completed. According to your v4.8.5 framework, the outlook is bearish with 65% confidence, and the cycle is positioned in a downtrend—corresponding to a total position cap of 30%, single trade risk of 0.3%, and prohibition of counter-trend long additions. ETH is clearly weaker than BTC, with a cascading liquidation point looming overhead.
Structural Assessment: The 30-day range is 74,888–84,898, currently hugging the lower boundary. The contraction in trading volume is the most critical information—Binance's ten high-liquidity spot samples combined trading volume is 2.211 billion USDT, down 37.23% week-over-week; BTC volume is 1.304 billion (−35.60%), ETH 470 million (−44.31%); eight out of ten samples are below their own 30-day median. The volume contraction to this extent during the decline indeed indicates selling pressure exhaustion, but there is no evidence of any new buying interest. ETH long positions are approaching the liquidation line. Is Brother Maji a qualified contract trader?❗️
Brother Maji's ETH long positions are in danger again: liquidation price at 2,203, current price around 2,240, less than 2% away from liquidation. In the past 4 days, he sold 15 NFTs and lost $500,000, only managing to raise $223,000 to add margin, which was burned through in just a few days. Papertrade shows a small loss of $909,000, and Hyperliquid accumulates a huge loss of $37.4 million. Once a whale holding 150 Bored Apes, now he survives by selling monkeys, then continues to open new positions.
My answer is very clear: he is not❗️
He looks more like a gambler with whale capital than a contract trader.
Looking at his operations, the problems are consistent:
First, almost exclusively long positions. ETH, HYPE, PUMP, BTC are all longs. The crypto cycle is volatile; betting only on the upside is like handing your fate over to liquidity.
Second, no active stop-loss. With 25x leverage, entry at 2,263, liquidation at 2,227, less than $40 in between. His stop-loss is forced liquidation.
Third, he relies on margin top-ups to endure losses. Normal traders reduce positions and admit mistakes; he chooses to sell NFTs to survive. He once profited $44.84 million, now he has lost it all and is down $37.4 million.
The core of a qualified contract trader is not always being right, but surviving when wrong. What Brother Maji lacks is not direction, but position management, stop-loss discipline, and switching between long and short. This is not a trader's liquidation; it's a wealthy person proving in the most expensive way that no matter how big the capital, it can't withstand gambler-style position openings #软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ SoftBank's Q2 financial report indeed looks impressive on paper, with profits largely coming from the unrealized gains in OpenAI equity valuation, representing "paper wealth" rather than stable operating cash flow. The heavy bet on OpenAI is a high-risk gamble: in the short term, it relies on valuation increases to beautify the financial statements, but it requires continuous large investments afterward. Coupled with OpenAI's slow profit realization, intensified industry competition, and high valuation volatility, once OpenAI's valuation corrects, the performance will sharply retract. The financial report can only be considered a temporary report card and does not mean this investment is safely cashed out; its sustainability is questionable. $BTC has returned above $75,000, while $ETH has slipped to 2,226, and $SOL is holding firm at 90 — these three numbers together form a crack. What’s more intriguing is that the buying pressure behind the scenes is becoming increasingly intense, yet the price hasn’t shown corresponding explosive strength. This combination of "high calls, weak moves" is often more worrisome than a crash. I’m not rushing to take sides, and my reason isn’t found in the price charts but in a more honest indicator: the funding rate. What does a true oversold reversal look like? The funding rate is crushed deep into negative territory, shorts are squeezed tightly with no room to escape, and only under this position structure does a rebound have the fuel to trigger a short squeeze. But right now, the funding rate is still lightly positive — there’s neither panic nor capitulation. This means the market hasn’t undergone a proper cleansing; the bulls haven’t been forced off the train, nor have the shorts accumulated enough to be harvested. In other words, this currently looks more like a pause during a volume-shrinking downtrend rather than a bottom formation. $BTC standing above 75,000 doesn’t mean the structure is repaired, $ETH dropping to 2,226 doesn’t mean panic selling, and $SOL holding 90 feels more like inertia than support. The divergence in their movements precisely indicates that capital hasn’t formed a unified direction, and this divergence itself is a weak signal. My core judgment can be summed up in one sentence: a rebound without negative funding rate fuel is just noise, not a trend. Buying is never about who’s fastest, but who can wait longer. Without full fuel, I’d rather stay on the sidelines and watch Average transaction price behind the top spot
For ONE at $0.002258, I divide the 24-hour trading volume by the transaction amount, resulting in an average price of about $0.001934. Not everyone made a profit.
This is not the holding cost.
Some sold early, some bought late; I leave the average price in the review section.
$ONE
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 After the US FinCEN issued a special measures order against MEXC Global, the funding channels responded first.
Some users reported that when withdrawing from MEXC to platforms like OKX, Binance, Gate, etc., deposits were intercepted or delayed. The special measures target "primary money laundering concerns" institutions, meaning US financial institutions and compliant exchanges need to conduct extra scrutiny on funds related to MEXC, or even cut off directly.
The judgment is somewhat negative for MEXC and its platform token MX. The key issue is not the fines, but the funding channels: once mainstream exchanges collectively tighten deposit risk controls, MEXC's deposit and withdrawal efficiency and user experience will be impacted first, easily causing withdrawal queues and asset discounts.
Two scenarios to observe: if it is just isolated community cases, the main effect is emotional disturbance; if mainstream platforms publicly restrict, the pressure on MX and the MEXC ecosystem will be more obvious.
Are you more concerned about whether MEXC withdrawals are experiencing queues, limits, or delays in arrival, or whether OKX, Binance, etc. have issued official announcements?
Source: Wu Shuo"USDC is lively, but that doesn't mean $BTC is taking off"
Circle's Q3 revenue was about $865 million, with on-chain USDC transaction volume soaring about 49% year-over-year, showing the stablecoin sector is indeed bustling. But over the weekend, $BTC was still hovering around 75,980, and the capital flow is even more striking: the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $412 million on November 6, with BlackRock's IBIT alone withdrawing about $403 million, marking the second consecutive day of net outflow. The 24-hour range was roughly 74,890 to 76,380, with funding rates nearly zero.
The rise in USDC volume indicates there is no shortage of USD-denominated liquidity on exchanges; however, with ETFs still pulling real money out, the price has to hold on its own. With this kind of volume over the weekend, I won't chase strength. Short-term, treat it as a range: support is at 75,500–74,890, resistance at 76,380; if it can't hold, don't rush to chase; if it breaks 74,890, reduce positions and observe, with a target of 76,800. Better to keep positions small and wait for liquidity to return on Monday before discussing trends.
Don't mistake the stablecoin activity for a signal that BTC is about to take off; first watch how the resistance levels behave.
$BTC $ETH
#CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4%
This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.🔥 I no longer want to predict BTC's lowest point because the trades that truly make money don't necessarily have to buy at the lowest price!
📉 The four-year bull and bear cycle has indeed shown some patterns in BTC's past. From 2023 to 2025, BTC's performance relatively aligns with the cycle rhythm, but altcoins have diverged early, with many coins reaching their phase highs in the first half of 2024.
💥 Next, BTC has three possibilities: breaking below $57,800 to set a new historical low; returning near $60,000 for a second bottom before ending the bear market; or directly reversing in the current area to start a new round of rally.
I won't rule out any of these three scenarios.
🧠 I don't need to guess the lowest point; I just need to wait for the price to offer a good enough opportunity. Without a margin of safety, I won't buy; without clear trading conditions, I will stay out of the market.
💰 Serious opportunities are worth seeking only after a big drop, but a deeper drop doesn't necessarily mean it's the bottom. We also need to see if selling pressure is exhausted, if the price stabilizes, and if the market truly has capital support.
🔥 Tonight, patience is still key. Missing out is not scary; the scariest thing is buying at the riskiest point just to avoid missing out.
Are you willing to miss the rally in order to wait for a margin of safety? #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 🔥In this BTC bear market cycle, the truly worthwhile opportunity to wait for may not have appeared yet!
📉 According to the historical pattern of the four-year cycle, Bitcoin's bull and bear transitions usually follow a certain rhythm. From 2023 to 2025, Bitcoin's cycle performance is relatively clear, but altcoins have not fully synchronized; many altcoins actually peaked in the first half of 2024.
💥 What the market is most concerned about now is where BTC will complete its final drop?
Currently, I mainly consider three possibilities: first, breaking below the historical low of $57,800 to create a new low; second, returning to just above $60,000 for a second dip before ending the bear market; third, the current area is the bottom, and the market directly makes a big V-shaped reversal.
⚠️ All three scenarios are possible, and no one can guarantee in advance which one will definitely happen. The four-year cycle can be used as a reference but should not be treated as an exact price prediction.
💰 So my strategy is simple: don't buy if it doesn't drop, only act on a big drop. Without enough safety margin, even if the price rises before your eyes, do not chase.
🧠 Tonight, I will continue to wait patiently. Do you think $57,800 will be the last line of defense, or will this cycle see a deeper correction? #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 The Nasdaq just caught its breath, but AI coins showed two different moods
On Friday, the Nasdaq rebounded 1.1%, but it still fell 3.4% for the whole week. This kind of market easily misleads people into thinking that tech risk appetite has returned, but the AI sector in crypto is not so uniform.
$RENDER was about $1.587 at 09:10 UTC on November 7, up 3.41% in 24 hours; perpetual open interest on seven exchanges was about $36.63 million, up 4.95% daily. Price rising with open interest increasing at least indicates rising participation, but new positions are not necessarily all longs.
$NEAR was about $3.709 at 10:15 UTC in the Hyperliquid snapshot, down 0.80% in 24 hours, with open interest around $159.5 million and a 1-hour rate of +0.0004%. Funds are still present, but the price hasn’t kept up with the tech stock rebound.
RENDER is more active, NEAR is temporarily lagging; the two data sources have different standards, so only compare direction, not absolute open interest to judge strength.
If tech stocks rise again next week, will you chase the leading RENDER, or keep an eye on the temporarily lagging NEAR?
#美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% Don't mistake institutional entry snapshots for your holding confidence
I once regarded ETFs as "stabilizers": since Wall Street is involved, the market should be more resilient. But capital has both entry and exit points; inflow and outflow always go through the same door.
On November 5, BTC spot ETFs had a net outflow of about $430 million, ETH spot ETFs had a net outflow of about $99.9 million, totaling approximately $530 million. More strikingly, after just returning the day before, the next day they turned around and exited again. This shows institutions are not "anchors" that only buy and never sell; they also rebalance, take profits, and hedge.
This made me rethink "institutional entry": having bought doesn't mean they will hold forever; recognizing the market doesn't mean they agree with your purchase price. Institutions focus on allocation and timing, while you bear your own cost basis. These are not the same.
In the future, when you see "institutions bottom-fishing," first check three things: the date of the data, whether outflows continue, and if they keep adding positions afterward. Don't take a single entry snapshot as a long-term commitment. They may have already swiped their card and left, while you're still taking photos excitedly at the door.Short sellers also need to guard against rebounds
When storage stocks keep weakening, short sellers tend to mistake the decline for a tailwind. The more it falls, the bolder they get adding positions; the more it rises, the more uneasy they become. For stocks like $SNDK, what really troubles shorts isn’t the gradual decline, but the sharp rally triggered suddenly by bottom-fishing funds.
Once the price rebounds, the floating losses on short positions get magnified. Leveraged positions become even more passive; when margin tightens, the system stops you out before you can even analyze the structure. Shorts fear not continued drops, but a sudden bullish rebound candle cutting into the downtrend.
Therefore, stop-loss isn’t admitting defeat, it’s leaving yourself a fallback. Proactively reducing positions before a rebound may feel painful, but it’s much cheaper than holding on until the peak and getting forcibly liquidated. After cutting positions, you can wait for the next opportunity; stubbornly holding on might cost you both your principal and control.
Short selling isn’t about who can endure more, but who can survive longer.NVIDIA's revenue potential in the Chinese market indeed exists
But there is one data point worth noting:
NVIDIA disclosed in its quarterly filing ending July 26, 2026, that shipments of the licensed H200 represent only a portion of the approved quantity, and the related shipment revenue accounts for less than 1% of the data center revenue for that quarter
This indicates that there is still a long way to go between policy approval and actual commercial revenue
Therefore, one cannot directly infer that NVIDIA is about to receive tens of billions of dollars in new orders just because the number of approved companies has increased
I prefer to understand it as a long-term market access opportunity rather than a short-term performance explosion catalyst
For China's AI industry: short-term to supplement computing power, long-term to compete for an independent ecosystem
Here is a contradiction:
Chinese AI companies need NVIDIA's high-performance GPUs, but China also needs to reduce dependence on advanced American chips
If the H200 is widely introduced in China, it may improve the supply of computing power for some model training and alleviate enterprises' demand for high-performance computing resources
But if the NVIDIA ecosystem continues to be used long-term, it may also increase dependence on CUDA, software tools, and the supply chain
Therefore, what China's AI chip industry truly needs to break through is not just single-chip performance, but:
Chip manufacturing capability
High-bandwidth memory supply
High-speed interconnect
Cluster computing efficiency
Software and developer ecosystem
This is a competition from chips to the entire computing infrastructure#软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ Two major events collide on Tuesday next week (November 10): the US October CPI and SoftBank Group's Q2 earnings report.
SoftBank's report deserves special attention. It is now roughly equivalent to OpenAI's "meal replacement stock": it has committed to investing $40 billion (net investment of $30 billion), with OpenAI holdings valued at $79.6 billion fair value as of the end of March this year, and cumulative unrealized gains of $45 billion. The problem is that Altman confirmed in September that there will be no IPO in 2026, so these unrealized gains have no short-term exit path.
Where the money comes from is a hard constraint: last October, SoftBank liquidated Nvidia holdings for $5.83 billion; in the previous fiscal year, it reduced T-Mobile holdings for $16.25 billion; it also carries a $40 billion bridge loan (due March 2027); in June, it tried to use OpenAI equity as collateral for a loan but was shelved by banks citing "private equity valuation difficulties." S&P downgraded its rating outlook to negative in March.
The market has already pre-judged: down 7.9% on Wednesday, intraday drop exceeded 14% on Thursday, with SoftBank's dollar bonds leading the decline in Asian investment-grade debt.
The earnings report will focus on three things: how OpenAI is valued on the books, how much the LTV has risen, and where the next funds will come from.
This is a factual summary and does not constitute investment advice. $ETH – Institutional Money Is Moving Out
Ethereum is struggling to attract fresh institutional capital as spot ETFs record another $93M in outflows. Bulls need to defend support before another correction develops.
#BTCETFOutflows416M $BTC – Bitcoin Bulls Need Stronger Confirmation
Bitcoin is holding near $76K, but ETF outflows of $412M show institutional demand remains weak. A recovery needs stronger buying volume, not just a temporary bounce.
#TechStocksReboundWatch 最脆弱的一环，其实不是BTC本身，而是杠杆退潮后山寨的承接力。 这轮波动阶段，谁在裸泳？ 这两天翻BTC的资金和清算数据，有种很微妙的感觉。11月7日那组数字里，24小时净流入约1308.74 BTC，相比前一日和7天前分别跳增194.98%和256.43%；同一时间清算额只剩约4164.94万美元、3152笔，较24小时前降了79.46%，较7天前降了56.11%。买盘在回，杠杆在退，听起来像教科书式的健康调整，但我盯着这组数反而先想到山寨。 原因很简单：波动收缩期，BTC往往是第一个被重新定价的，ETH跟得慢半拍，而山寨要等到风险偏好真正回来才有人接。现在清算量骤降说明高杠杆仓位被清得差不多了，短期踩踏风险确实在变小，这对BTC和ETH是偏多的底色。但另一面，现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元这个背景还压着，说明增量资金并没有想象中那么积极，净流入更像是存量回补而非新钱进场。 所以我看这段行情的顺序是：先看BTC能不能把净流入延续成价格站稳，再看ETH/BTC有没有走强，最后才轮到山寨补涨。如果前两步走不出来，山寨的反弹大概率只是情绪修复，不是趋势。波动阶段最怕的就是把"清算As of November 8, the cryptocurrency market experienced a typical leveraged long liquidation cascade. According to Coinglass data, the total liquidations across the network in the past 24 hours rose to $812 million, with long liquidations at $668 million and short liquidations only $144 million, sweeping out 225,000 traders. The largest single liquidation occurred on the Binance ETHUSDT contract, valued at $11.85 million.
The position distribution shows extreme long crowding: Bitcoin long liquidations reached $216 million, shorts $102 million; Ethereum long liquidations were $230 million, shorts only $45.11 million. Long liquidations accounted for over 80%, indicating that leveraged positions stacked above $80,000 were forcefully liquidated in a chain reaction after the price broke down, with passive selling further pushing prices lower.
On the chart, Bitcoin accelerated a flash crash from around $81,000, quickly losing support at $76,000, hitting a low of $75,200 before buyers stepped in to support and trigger a rebound. The liquidation heatmap shows a dense long liquidation zone between $75,000 and $75,400, where this rebound started; the first short liquidation cluster is between $76,800 and $77,200, and $79,500 to $80,000 is the next liquidity gap. If the rebound continues, $77,000 is the first test; if $75,000 is lost again, the $74,500 to $74,800 range will come into view.
The current market is in a repair phase after leveraged clearing, with longs and shorts re-battling in the $75,000 to $77,000 range. It is not advisable to chase positions before the direction becomes clear. Non-farm payrolls blew past expectations, the crypto market didn’t crash, but "not crashing" doesn’t mean "improving"
New jobs added were 165,000, with the previous figure revised up from 29,000 to 60,000, totaling an 84,000 upward revision over two months. BTC only dropped by a few tenths of a percent, and the Fear & Greed Index remains stuck at 28. Bad news came out but no drop, indicating that leverage was mostly cleared during Thursday’s move. But not crashing is just not crashing; funding rates are still positive, longs are still holding on, this isn’t liquidation, it’s just holding on stubbornly.Conclusion first: Currently, it is a "single bank collapse + political crisis + financial credibility shock," not a full-scale financial crisis, but there is a risk of evolving into a sovereign credit and liquidity crisis. 1. The event itself: The collapsed bank is Ueno Bank - Nature: Paraguay's largest digital bank, about 3 million customers (national population about 6.5 million, covering nearly half to 60% of the adult population) - Timeline: - June 2026: Central bank discovered related-party transactions and liquidity deterioration - November 2–3: Central bank determined solvency fell below half the legal limit, directly took over/initiated disposal, app, cards, and transfers all stopped - Subsequently: 8 senior executives investigated, President Peña resigned → impeached and removed → placed under house arrest, central bank governor resigned - Direct cause of death: not a technical collapse, but governance collapse - Illegal loans to related enterprises of the controlling shareholder - After provisioning, capital adequacy ratio dropped from about 15% to just over 5% - Public funds (pensions/social security IPS) deposited about $380 million–$850 million, run on deposits + asset hole exposed 2. Is it a "financial crisis"? Strictly speaking: not a systemic financial crisis, but a "quasi-financial crisis scenario" Dimension Current status Banking system capital Overall capital adequacy ratio still about 17%, non-performing loan ratio not high Contagion path Ueno's problem assets mainly within the group, interbank holdings not deep Deposit insurance Individual limit about $38,000, covering about 97% of depositorsRecently, many people have been asking: Has BTC already hit the bottom this time?
My view hasn't changed for now; in the short term, I am still watching around $72,000.
After last night's news, the market did not experience the expected panic selling. BTC's lowest pullback was to 74,800, and ETH only dipped to 2,207, not breaking the previous low of 2,170.
What does this indicate?
I believe that after the continuous decline earlier, quite a bit of capital has started to enter for bottom-fishing. After all, BTC fell from 88,000 to 75,000, and ETH dropped from 2,880 to 2,200, making the prices look attractive enough.
But I actually think it's still too early to be optimistic.
The reason is simple: the more people think it's cheap, the more we need to be cautious about whether there will be a second dip.
Currently, many have entered around 76,000, whether in spot or futures, accumulating a certain bullish expectation. If the subsequent rebound lacks strength and market sentiment weakens again, a new round of correction cannot be ruled out.
Of course, 72,000 is my personal forecast and does not mean the market will definitely reach there.
I am more willing to wait patiently now, rather than rushing to bottom-fish just because prices have dropped a lot. What really matters is not just how much the price has fallen, but whether the buying can continue to hold.
Do you think BTC has already bottomed this time, or is there still one last panic drop to come?
#BTCETFOutflows416M Bitcoin mining difficulty has not returned to its peak for 374 days, breaking a historical record
Bitcoin mining difficulty has remained below the high point of 155.97T set on October 29, 2025, for 374 consecutive days, marking the longest period in the network's history. The previous two records were 364 days after the 2011 crash and 253 days following China's mining ban in 2021, both of which have now been surpassed.
Pressure comes from two sides: low coin prices, with listed mining companies selling $BTC and shifting towards AI; and the Democratic Party pushing for data center restrictions after the midterm elections, which could also impact mining companies. Those holding mining stocks or positions related to computing power need to watch both these factors closely.
A verifiable point: difficulty dropped to 124.93T in mid-June 2026, about 20% below the peak, rebounded to 148.36T in October, but Mempool.space expects it to drop about 3.7% again around November 13.Falling while rising: IREN's mining revenue dropped about −58% in one quarter (around $28 million), but AI cloud revenue surged about +182% quarter-over-quarter to around $200 million — the same mining company, two faces on the books.
Hashrate was compressed from about 45 EH/s to about 8.8, mining about 402 BTC (about two thousand in the same period last year); daily settlement and clearing, no coin hoarding on the books. The company says it will basically exit mining and switch capacity to GPU by the end of the year — a realignment in the quarterly report, not just a slogan.
Confidence: High | Company disclosure (10-Q) + media reports. Are you more focused on how much mining companies are still mining, or on where the hashrate is moving?
$BTC $ONE is the coin of Harmony, the star public chain of the last bull market, which peaked at $0.379 and now is worth just a fraction — the project team has even proposed shutting down the mainnet and migrating to Ethereum. This is a coin that is "preparing to close," yet it surged 143% in two days.
How it rose: It bottomed out at 0.00102 on November 5, then surged 49% the next day with increased volume. Yesterday, it steadily climbed step by step all day with continuous volume; today at midnight it accelerated again to 0.00248. The project team made no announcements, and there is no news.
All the impact is written in the contract: liquidation samples show shorts overwhelmingly liquidated, longs have zero liquidations; positions nearly tripled in two days, and the fee rate is still negative — shorts are still rushing in, fuel not yet burned out. Some analysts call this the "derivatives fuel liquidation engine," not spot buying.
This market movement is unrelated to fundamentals, purely a position game. The main bet is on a high-level wide-range shakeout, first retesting support: if 0.0019-0.0020 holds, there will be more action; if broken, it will return to 0.00156.
Verification points to watch are two things: whether 0.00248 can hold with volume, and when the fee rate turns positive. A positive fee rate means longs start crowding in to take over, often signaling the end of the squeeze.#ASTS推进手机直连卫星服务，商业化进展待披露
ASTS:
1.3 billion backlog orders do not equal recurring revenue; revenue has consecutively missed expectations. The commercial service of 45 satellites has been postponed to early 2027; available cash is about 3.3 billion, while consumption from 2026 to 2028 is about 3.1 billion. The risk of dilution from financing is imminent. The other party does not leverage before the financial report, essentially leaving room for error in the conversion window, which does not contradict your pessimism.Can gold stand above 4100 before the 25th? My judgment and trading logic
Recently, the gold market has seen intense battles between bulls and bears. Regarding the question "Will the gold price reach 4100 USD before November 25th?", my judgment is: the probability is low.
First, macroeconomic pressure remains strong. The market currently prices in about an 80% chance of a Fed rate hike in December. Gold, as a non-yielding asset, has a very high holding cost when rate hike expectations rise. Additionally, Goldman Sachs just lowered its year-end target price to 4150 USD, clearly stating "bullish in the long term, but not now," which means the short-term upside is already capped by institutional pricing.
Second, technical selling pressure is heavy. The 4100 to 4130 range is not only a psychological barrier but also a dense resistance zone. Although gold briefly surged to around 4140 in early November, it quickly formed a long upper shadow and retreated, proving there is real and concentrated selling pressure at that level. It will be very difficult to break through and hold above it again in the short term.
Of course, I also respect the market. "Pulse-like" false breakouts caused by geopolitical conflicts or unexpected data cannot be ruled out. Therefore, I have constructed a two-way strategy: using free XP to buy into the "not reaching" prediction betting list rewards; at the same time, opening a 10x long position with a strict stop loss anchored at 3940.
The confidence in trading comes from risk control. Regardless of the outcome, my maximum drawdown is locked within an acceptable "tuition fee" range. Before the 25th, I leave it to time to verify. What do you think? The core reasons for $NBIS are twofold:
First, there is a huge consensus gap. The current mainstream institutional consensus (MarketBeat -$0.71, Seeking Alpha -$0.83, TipRanks -$0.75) has deeply fallen below the -$0.61 threshold. To reach a "Yes," a positive deviation far beyond the normal range is required.
Second, the cost side is concentrated and off the charts. Q3 is the first full depreciation period after the large-scale deployment of GPU clusters. Previously, quarterly depreciation amortization reached $250 million, and equity incentives nearly $90 million; these non-cash expenses are heavily impacting the income statement, directly dragging down the GAAP bottom line.
Unless there is a massive one-time asset revaluation (such as a surge in financial assets) to fill the gap, relying solely on main revenue growth (about $900 million) cannot reverse the trend of expanding GAAP losses.Continuously adding to positions during a decline is not about buying at a bargain; it's about giving up your retreat path.
$SNDK $MU keep falling, and the most common scenario is: the lower the price drops, the more buy orders appear.
Many think this is called "averaging down." But what gets diluted is the cost per share, while the total position risk is magnified. The heavier the position gets, if the price drops another level, the account will only face greater volatility.
What's more dangerous is that if every "replenishment" is accompanied by moving the stop loss lower, that's not risk control but exchanging a larger loss margin for psychological comfort. Once the stop loss moves back with the price, it easily ends up as no stop loss at all.
Thick buy orders on the order book don't necessarily mean the bottom has been reached. Orders can be withdrawn, selling pressure will consume buy orders, and what truly determines the short-term direction is not "how many people seem willing to buy," but whether the marginal selling pressure has weakened.
In a one-sided decline, the biggest fear is not making one wrong judgment, but having a position structure that leaves no room for correction. Heavy positions, averaging down, moving stop losses back—when these three combine, you are not being harvested by the market but dragged down by your own position.
In short: adding to positions and averaging down can be part of a plan, but it cannot be an instinctive reaction after losses. Unchanged logic, capped position size, and stop losses that do not move back—that's a strategy; otherwise, it's just holding on to losing positions. #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% #ASTS推进手机直连卫星服务，商业化进展待披露 Not optimistic $UP Altcoin Short-Term Volatility Summary｜Volume and Position Signal Analysis, Beware of Chasing High in Soaring Tokens:
$AKE 📈59.02%: Extremely strong short-term breakout power, impressive gains, trading volume surged to 79 times, showing prominent characteristics of concentrated speculative buying. After a massive rapid rise, market fluctuations will sharply increase, chip realization pressure can come at any time, chasing highs at peak has a poor risk-reward ratio, extremely high risk.
$ONE 📈28.09%: Price and position both strengthen synchronously, 4-hour position growth of 21.58%, price increase accompanied by continuous capital inflow, strong bullish capital support, short-term trend is relatively strong.
$UP 📈11.60%: Gains are acceptable, but price remains in horizontal consolidation, positions only slightly increased, capital is divided with no clear one-sided direction, bulls and bears are still contesting, continue to observe.
$ACT 📈8.20%: Although there is intraday gain, price fell 10.12% in the last 4 hours, accompanied by a 15.11% drop in positions, capital is retreating, rebound lacks capital support, rebound strength is weak.
$MET 📈7.63%: Trading volume moderately expanded, price and positions rise synchronously, no extreme volume surge, steady rhythm, represents moderate capital push, more stable compared to other speculative targets.
#US October Nonfarm Payrolls Exceed Expectations, December Rate Hike Bets Heat Up