Orbit Post Sitemap
Has $XLY consumer income outpaced inflation?
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release CPI and real income data simultaneously on November 10. Discretionary spending depends more on purchasing power adjusted for price changes and is also constrained by installment costs. If real income improves and retail sales keep pace, demand is more reliable. If the increase is mainly driven by nominal price hikes and sales weaken, the assessment of consumer resilience should be lowered.On Thursday, trading volume surged to nearly three times the average during the sharp drop, while on Friday's rebound, volume noticeably shrank. Most leading tech stocks only recovered about 30% of Thursday's losses, indicating that large institutional funds remain mostly cautious.
At the same time, recent valuation expectations for leading AI unicorns in the primary market have also been revised downward. The market is shifting from simply chasing the scale of computing infrastructure to rigorously testing AI's commercial monetization and cash flow returns.
This downturn is essentially squeezing out the valuation excess from AI tech stocks that surged too rapidly over the past two years. The market is using the election and economic data as an opportunity to wash out uncertain positions.
Next, the Nasdaq is likely to continue oscillating and consolidating near the 200-day moving average. It will be much safer to wait until next week's inflation data is released and the index truly shows volume expansion and stabilization before taking action.
$QQQ 🔥How much strength does the BTC rebound still have? What’s really troubling the bulls now isn’t just the strong nonfarm payrolls, but also the continuous withdrawal of institutional funds!
📉The US added 165,000 nonfarm jobs in October, far exceeding the market expectation of 65,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. The robust employment data has heated up expectations for a Fed rate hike in December, with market bets rising to 78% at one point. The US dollar index rose about 0.7%, and US Treasury yields also moved higher. The originally anticipated easing trades are being repriced.
💸What’s even more concerning is the funding side. Last week, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $1.28 billion, the largest weekly outflow since the end of June, and the cumulative net inflow for the year has turned into a net outflow. The ETH ETF has also been bleeding for six consecutive weeks, with institutional funds showing no clear bottom-fishing intentions for now.
📊I believe the short-term rebound may come from oversold recovery and short covering, but to truly reverse the trend, spot buying and ETF funds need to re-enter.
⚠️Next, focus on CPI, the US dollar, and US Treasury yields. No rush to chase the rebound today; first, see if funds turn back.
Brothers, do you think BTC still has a chance to turn this rebound into a reversal? #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $BTC $ETH Brothers, I just can't figure it out, really can't! Tonight's nonfarm payrolls came in at 16.5, far exceeding expectations, and the probability of a December rate hike jumped 10%. Logically, there should have been a big drop, with BTC going to 74000 and ETH to 2100, but the market barely fell, not even a decent downward spike. What's more coincidental is that BTC tonight landed exactly at 74800—the lowest point of the last pullback. This level might not be broken in the short term, indicating that support below is stronger than expected. The fact that it didn't drop on bad news suggests we should be wary of short-selling momentum fading. I plan to close my short positions around 75000 and try a short-term long, first seeing if 74800 holds and then a rebound near 76300. Of course, if volume breaks below 74800, the short-term long idea is invalid. What do you guys think?
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 SpaceX did not secure the rumored $10 billion lunar contract.
First, understand NASA's original text: CLPS 2 is a 10-year framework contract.
The total cap is $10 billion, shared among 8 companies.
Being selected only means qualifying to bid; subsequent orders must be competed for one by one.
The company that actually secured mission orders this round is Blue Origin.
They are responsible for delivering the PROMISE nuclear-powered lunar rover, with a base contract of $94 million and options adding up to a maximum of $140 million.
SpaceX secured a separate mission:
In 2028, to launch a Earth-Moon communication satellite using Starship; the amount has not been disclosed publicly.
A simple calculation:
$10 billion spread over 10 years, divided among 8 companies, averages to a cap of about $1 billion per year.
SpaceX's aerospace segment revenue alone in Q3 was $1.77 billion.
My judgment is straightforward:
This framework contract has almost no incremental impact on SpaceX's revenue.
The real point to watch is that Starship now has a hard deadline to deliver in 2028.
Starship's 15th flight is earliest on November 14 morning Beijing time.
At that time, we will continue to watch and calculate. $SPCX 🔥The non-farm payrolls are just the appetizer; the real factor that might determine the market's next move is the US CPI on November 10! This time, 165,000 new jobs were added, far exceeding the market expectation of 65,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. The US job market is clearly stronger than expected.
📊Strong employment gives the Federal Reserve more reason to continue focusing on inflation rather than rushing to ease policy. San Francisco Fed President Daly also stated that further tightening of policy is still possible, but the timing and magnitude need to be carefully assessed. Market bets on a rate hike in December have consequently intensified.
📉This is not good news for BTC. A stronger dollar and rising rate expectations will put pressure on risk assets. But I am more focused on how prices react to the negative news: if the data is very poor but BTC doesn't fall, it indicates the market may have already priced in some pessimism.
🕘At 21:30 Beijing time on November 10, the US October CPI will be released. If the data continues to exceed expectations, the market may further bet on rate hikes; if inflation cools significantly, risk assets might get a breather.
🎯Before the CPI release, I prefer to control my position and wait for a clear direction. Do you think this CPI will continue to pressure the market or become the trigger for a rebound? #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温
🔥Nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, while the market originally expected only 65,000! Such a clear beat should logically put pressure on risk assets, but how the crypto market moves next might not be as straightforward as it seems.
📉Strong employment data has reignited expectations for a Fed rate hike in December, and the unemployment rate has also fallen back to 4.1%. The US dollar index has quickly strengthened, and market expectations for easing policies have cooled again. For BTC and ETH, the short-term liquidity environment is not very friendly.
📊But another perspective is worth noting: before the data release, the market had already experienced a round of declines, and some shorts may have positioned early. When the negative news actually lands, if prices do not continue to plunge significantly but instead rebound, it’s important to watch for short sellers taking profits and potential oversold corrections.
💡So I’m not in a hurry to define the rebound as a reversal, nor will I assume the market will inevitably continue to fall just because the nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations. The key point to verify inflation pressure and rate hike expectations will be the US CPI on November 10 Beijing time.
⚠️If CPI remains hot, shorts may regain the upper hand; if inflation cools, the market could see a recovery opportunity.
Brothers, do you think shorts are using the bad news to push further, or is the market preparing to rebound after the negative news has landed? In the past week, U.S. tech stocks experienced a rare "sharp drop followed by a rebound": on Thursday, there was a historic intraday sell-off, but on Friday, strong buying pushed prices significantly higher to recover losses.
Even so, the Nasdaq still closed the week down about 3.4%, marking a rare four-week losing streak and officially entering a technical correction zone with a pullback of over 10% from recent highs.
Behind this intense volatility are a reversal in policy expectations and concentrated release of macro interest rate pressures.
On Tuesday, the U.S. midterm elections saw the Democrats sweep Congress and capture key data center hubs like Texas, sparking market fears that AI computing infrastructure might face policy restrictions. This directly triggered a single-day drop of over 12% in the semiconductor sector on Thursday; then on Friday, stronger-than-expected nonfarm payroll data sharply reduced rate cut expectations, further suppressing valuations of high-growth tech stocks.
It wasn’t until the White House and the incoming Texas governor clarified that "approved projects will continue," combined with rating upgrades from institutions like Deutsche Bank and short sellers covering positions ahead of the weekend, that leaders like Nvidia and AMD saw a strong rebound on Friday.
From a trading perspective, Friday’s rally was more of a technical rebound after overselling rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
#美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% $QQQ Tech stocks are rebounding while crypto funds are retreating; this divergence is dominating today's market.
① BTC ($75,946 / +0.37%)
Testing weekly 50-day moving average support near $75,500, with short-term resistance at the 50-EMA around $77,419. BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of $1.28 billion in a single week, with a cumulative net outflow of about $914 million in 2026. The capital flow is the most direct suppressing factor currently.
② ETH ($2,236 / +0.11%)
The Glamsterdam upgrade was delayed due to compatibility risks with gas billing for 8 smart contracts; the Hoodi testnet hard fork is postponed. ETH ETF has had net outflows for six consecutive weeks, totaling $365 million. Lacking independent catalysts technically, its movement continues to anchor to BTC.
③ BCH ($245 / -4.17%)
Has broken below the key support zone of $250–255, hitting a new low since September. This round of decline is driven by spot trading, not leverage liquidation: investors who bought during the September ETF hype at $310–345 remain trapped, and the rebound to $255–265 has generated selling pressure. The next support is expected around $222–230.
The core market contradiction is "tech stocks rebound, crypto sector bleeding." The US CPI on the 10th and PPI on the 13th will be released consecutively. Whether ETFs can end net outflows is more worth watching than the price itself.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 ETF asset base at the $95.9 billion level, can it withstand outflows?
Large outflows are certainly worth watching, but BTC spot ETFs still have about $95.9 billion in net assets, a base that cannot be wiped out in a single day.
Using $BTC as a reference, price is about $75,810, 24h -0.25%; OI 24h +2.0%, fee rate +0.0072%/8h (CoinGecko perpetual summary). Contract participation is rising, but the fee rate is mildly positive, indicating bulls are present, so it’s not yet extremely crowded.
$ETH is about $2,234.31, 24h -0.63%; OI 24h -0.1%, fee rate +0.0055%/8h (CoinGecko perpetual summary). Price has fallen but open interest is almost flat, currently more like waiting for direction rather than new leverage entering significantly.
The same news affects the two coins differently, indicating that funds do not treat $BTC and $ETH as the same kind of risk.
Asset scale and marginal flow answer different questions. Do you see this round as institutional retreat or a phase of rebalancing?
#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% 🚨 The non-farm payroll data is just the first round of tests; the real market direction will be decided by next week's CPI!
The strong non-farm employment data has already been partially priced in by the market. The December rate hike expectation has risen to about 76.8%–80%, but notably, BTC has not continued to drop sharply because of this. This may indicate that the market's selling pressure is gradually easing.
However, the real test is still ahead.
If the October CPI continues to rise, the expectation of a Fed rate hike in December may further intensify, putting greater pressure on risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Conversely, if inflation data cools down, the market's suppressed rebound demand may be released again.
$80,000 has shifted from a previous support level to a new battleground. Until BTC truly holds this threshold, any upward movement should be viewed cautiously.
My view is simple: don't rush to chase gains, and don't panic over short-term fluctuations. The next CPI data might be the real key to determining the market's next direction.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #CPI #FedRate #OKXOrbit
NFA DYOR — Not financial advice, please do your own research.
#DailyOrbit A company that hasn't gone public yet already has continuous quotes on the exchange. ANTHROPIC's latest price is $142.02, up 3.25% in 24 hours, and OKX issued an abnormal movement alert for the ANTHROPIC/USDT contract.
Let's clarify this first: this is not a stock, but a contract listed under USDT. It is a leveraged certificate that follows the underlying asset's price, with a liquidation line. If the underlying rises 3.25%, the leverage will amplify this number, so profits and losses are calculated on the amplified amount.
The 3.25% itself is not dramatic. What’s really worth noting is its source: this is the net change over the whole day, not a sudden price jump. In other words, the buying pressure is continuous, not driven by a single big bullish candle. For an asset with limited liquidity, continuity is more valuable than magnitude.
The opposite is also true. With a thin order book, quotes can be easily pushed by a single large order, and price dislocations can occur when the underlying is closed or liquidity dries up. The 142.02 you see on the contract order book may not necessarily mean someone actually traded at that price.
The judgment here is: $ANTHROPIC is not suitable as a main position, but rather for small amounts with clear stop-losses to express directional views. Treating it like $BTC or $ETH, assets that can withstand pullbacks, is a misallocation.
What’s worth thinking about is this: more and more unlisted companies are being made into contracts. Is price discovery happening in the stock market, or in this 24-hour nonstop order book?This week the market was overwhelmingly red, yet some DEX tokens bucked the trend and closed in the green!
 HYPE, ASTER, and UNI all boast about their real user adoption, and this weekend's market movement reveals their true on-chain resilience through capital flows.
$UNI is the only one among the three that posted an upward trend, rising 2.93% against the market on Sunday. The core catalyst is the fee reform; the UNIfication mechanism will directly burn UNI tokens. The v4 TVL remains stable at $1.09 billion, and with Robinhood Chain's main AMM integration, compliant traffic continuously flows into the liquidity pools. In my view, UNI is undervalued below $7, relying not on hype but on token burns and multi-party integrations for real adoption.
$HYPE has a strong business foundation; Hyperliquid's perpetual contract fees over 30 days approach $85.6 million, nearly on par with PumpSwap, securing its leading position in the on-chain perpetuals sector. However, its TVL has dropped 8.6% over the past week, withdrawal restrictions remain, and the selling pressure accumulated before the resumption of trading is still the biggest risk. The project's moat remains intact, but positive developments are stalled by regulatory approval. I plan to observe further once neighboring assets are officially unlocked.
$ASTER still faces unresolved risks; the claim window runs from October 28 to November 28, trading volume continues to expand, insider holdings have surged from 0.5% to 11.6%, and TVL has fallen from a peak of 2.46 billion to 777 million without recovery. The token distribution risk is very high. Even with a promising mechanism, I won’t consider it a bottom buy during this window period.
All three are in the DEX sector, and whether they can withstand market pressure and develop independent momentum clearly reflects their real-world adoption capabilities. Among these DEXs, which one would you prefer to place your bets on? In the early hours of November 7, Web3Auth discovered a vulnerability and notified Keplr, which immediately suspended Google and Apple logins. The issue was that Web3Auth's social credential relay service was compromised, allowing attackers to potentially forge authentication, hijack third-party login credentials, and obtain private key shards of custodial wallets. Only Keplr wallets created using Google or Apple accounts were affected; mnemonic phrases and hardware wallet accounts remained completely secure. The convenience of social login comes at the cost of a single point of failure: if the authentication layer collapses, all wallets relying on it are compromised together. When users hand over control of their private keys to third-party custodians, they are essentially betting that this third party will never have issues. But this incident proves the stakes are too high. Web3Auth manages authentication and key management; breaching it is equivalent to obtaining the keys to 44,000 wallets simultaneously, without needing to attack each one individually. This is the same logic as Keystone's "authentication key theft," Ledger's "supply chain implant," and Bloom Trading's "RCE"—the target shifts from "asset storage" to "signing and verification infrastructure." The theft occurred on 8 Cosmos chains, pointing to a flaw in the ICS-20 module that failed to enforce verification of the source chain ID in cross-chain messages: after obtaining private key shards, forged cross-chain messages could move funds from one chain to another. When sharing the same codebase, a vulnerability in any one chain becomes a springboard to attack other chains. In the first half of 2026, 88.3% of Web3 secu Tomorrow (November 9) the US stock market opens again, and I, a newbie in crypto trading, have actually started watching the US stock market.
The reason is simple: last week's scene was too typical.
On November 5, the US stock market saw a broad sell-off, with AI and semiconductor stocks leading the decline; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped more than 12% in a single day. On November 6, Nvidia and AMD led a rebound, with the Nasdaq rising 1.09%, but the Dow Jones actually fell 0.46%.
Tech stocks are rising, but traditional blue chips are not keeping up.
My first reaction was: can I finally breathe a sigh of relief? Looking at the weekly chart, the Nasdaq still fell about 3.4% last week, and the S&P dropped about 2.7%. Friday's rebound only partially filled the gap.
I have now set three simple rules for myself:
First, see who is rising. Only AI tech stocks are rebounding, blue chips are not following; this is called divergence, not a full recovery.
Second, look at the weekly chart and don’t be fooled by a single day. A 1% rise in one day doesn’t mean the trend has changed. As a newbie, I’m most easily excited by red and green.
Third, see if the strength can hold in the following days. Some say it’s a capital inflow, others say it’s a technical rebound. Whether it can stay strong after tomorrow’s open is more important than how much it rises at the open.
As for whether BTC will follow the US stock market, I don’t know and don’t want to guess. I’ve only learned one thing: a return of risk appetite doesn’t mean a market reversal; don’t treat one day as a whole week.
When you look at the crypto market, do you refer to the US stock market?The central bank has been buying gold for 24 consecutive months, and this time the increase in holdings is the largest since the gold purchase program resumed.
At the end of October, gold reserves reached 78.3 million ounces, a month-on-month increase of 830,000 ounces, marking 24 consecutive months of accumulation. The increase is the highest since the gold purchase program resumed in November 2024. During the same period, XAU fell by 0.18%, with prices not following the news.
The two groups to watch most closely are: those holding long gold positions and those who see the central bank's buying as a "strong floor." Analysts give a straightforward reason — the reserve structure needs optimization, and they continue buying even with high gold prices.
One verifiable point: gold prices slightly declined in months when accumulation hit new highs, indicating that buying activity and market sentiment are two different things. Next, watch whether the monthly accumulation volume can continue; this is more useful than just reading headlines. $BTC $ETH$32.2 million liquidated, where is the risk concentrated among coins?
Around 10:12 UTC on November 8, 24-hour liquidations covering 53 coins totaled approximately $32.2 million, with ZEC leading at about $5.8 million.
$ZEC is around $1,260.58, down 3.88% in 24 hours. Open Interest (OI) down 5.9% in 24h, funding rate +0.0265%/8h (CoinGecko perpetual summary). This data seems to indicate: price is falling while positions are shrinking, funding rates remain relatively high, long position cost pressure is not low, and deleveraging may not be over yet.
Looking at $ETH: current price about $2,234.31, down 0.63% intraday. OI down 0.1% in 24h, funding rate +0.0055%/8h (CoinGecko perpetual summary). Price is falling but positions are almost flat, temporarily more like waiting for direction rather than new leverage entering significantly.
ZEC funding rates remain high and OI is shrinking; ETH liquidations about $5.7 million, BTC about $4.5 million, mainstream coins also have positions passively exiting.
Liquidation statistics do not cover all contracts in the entire market and cannot predict the next round's direction. Which side do you think is the most crowded now?
#美军扩大对伊朗封锁，霍尔木兹重开仍存分歧 #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% 🔷 CryptoDigest #3: $1.28B fled from ETFs in 5 days
Briefly about the week:
1️⃣ The world's largest exchange reopened withdrawals after a $6.3B hack. FBI blames North Korea.
2️⃣ $BTC: $81k after elections, $75k two days later.
3️⃣ $1.28B left BTC-ETFs.
4️⃣ USA: +165K jobs, rate hike odds ≈77%.
5️⃣ Democrats took Congress, CLARITY law at risk.
The market lives on the rate and Nasdaq. CPI on Tuesday. What weighs more on the price: the rate or ETFs? 👇
DYOR.$XLRE Housing inflation is relatively strong; does this necessarily benefit listed real estate?
The US October CPI is scheduled for release on November 10. Changes in the housing component have a time lag compared to current leases of listed properties, and real estate stocks are also affected by refinancing costs. If net operating income growth covers the increased debt refinancing rates, cash flow will be more stable. If rent growth slows while refinancing rates rise, even a hot housing component should lower valuation expectations.Next Tuesday, the US stock market faces two major events. At 9:30 PM Beijing time, the October CPI will be released, and on the same day, CoreWeave will report its Q3 earnings—one relates to interest rates, the other to where the money for AI data centers comes from.
CoreWeave $CRWV is the eye of the storm in this round of AI sell-off. According to Trefis, from May 8 to November 4, its stock price dropped 57.6%. At the end of June, its debt was $51.6 billion, more than triple that of a year ago, with free cash flow negative $13.66 billion over the past 12 months. The 9.625% coupon 2032 bonds fell below 80 cents on the dollar, and some have inferred a roughly 35% probability of default within five years based on CDS. Its hand includes $104.2 billion in backlog contracts, and Nvidia has promised to take up any unsold computing power until April 2032. The market expects revenue of $3.5 billion this quarter, compared to $1.4 billion in the same period last year, with a loss of $1.55 per share.
CPI expectations are overall month-over-month 0.3%, core 0.2%, with futures pricing in about an 80% chance of a rate hike in December. Friday brings PPI, and Nvidia will close the show on the 17th.
The Nasdaq $QQQ fell 3.37% last week, closing at 24,579, now below its 52-week moving average. CoreWeave’s report is more of a barometer than the CPI; everyone knows revenue is doubling, but the key is how the $6.2 billion debt maturing in 2027 will be rolled over. If management can’t find a way without relying on new issuance, it won’t be the only one falling. Nvidia $NVDA will have to bear the brunt before its report on the 17th. #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% How many days are left for Thai users? The SEC has named Bitget, with website and app blocking starting around December 5.
Thailand SEC Notice No. 241/2026 dated November 5: A criminal complaint has been filed with the Economic Crime Suppression Division against BG Limited, the operator of bitget.com, and an alleged promoter, for operating an unlicensed digital asset exchange from 2022 to 2025 (Thai language site, pricing in Thai Baht, Thai social media traffic). The Ministry of Digital Economy and Society has been notified to block the website, related domains, and apps starting around December 5.
The notice reminds users to handle their assets on the platform before the blocking date; there is no mention of forced liquidation or freezing: blocking does not equal automatic confiscation of assets. Bitget's user terms already list Thailand as a prohibited jurisdiction; it is also in the process of acquiring the locally licensed GMO-Z, with the transfer date extended from October 31 to November 30, pending regulatory approval. Approval of the acquisition does not mean the criminal case will be dropped. This is a block within Thailand, not a global shutdown.
Why is this important: Another crackdown on unlicensed exchanges in Southeast Asia. When licenses and traffic sources don’t align, the calendar is more decisive than slogans.
Confidence level: high to medium | Based on the Thailand SEC English notice (sec.or.th) and reports from CoinDesk and others. The blocking date and acquisition progress are subject to official updates. Do you think users will move their assets before the block or wait for the local licensed channel?Macro Background: After the Nonfarm Payrolls "Explosion," Next Week's CPI Is the Real Verdict
The impact of the Nonfarm Payrolls has already been partially digested by the market—December rate hike probability has jumped to about 76.8%-80%, but BTC has not continued to drop, which is a positive signal of bearish news not leading to a decline. However, the "second-order effect" of this data is that it makes the market extremely sensitive to next week's CPI. If October's CPI is also strong, the "December rate hike" will shift from expectation to a more certain pricing, further lowering the valuation ceiling for risk assets; if CPI eases, the currently suppressed rebound demand will have room to be released.
Differences in institutional perspectives are also worth noting: some analyses believe "the trend has not been broken, and institutional funds have not returned"—the $80,000 level has shifted from previous support to a position that needs to be contested again; before firmly standing above it, any rise is better viewed as a rebound. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #Anthropic仍计划11月IPO，投资者下调估值预期 Today I saw a report from Fidelity saying that Solana's transaction count once surpassed that of the NYSE this year.
To pour cold water first: it's comparing transaction counts, not amounts, and the things traded on both sides aren't the same. But under this metric, it was only 0.30% in 2022, and this year it reached 15%, that slope is a bit scary.
There's another data point I care more about: the monthly trading volume of tokenized assets surged from less than $100 million to nearly $5 billion.
I'm increasingly convinced that the blockchain isn't the "finance of the future," it's already being used as infrastructure. What about you?
#Solana #Web3 #FidelityToday is the weekend, and the market looks quite boring. BTC is grinding around 75,900, and ETH is fluctuating around 2,244. But one piece of data makes me feel very uncomfortable, even a bit amused.
The long-short ratio is 3.27, leaning bullish, but the fear and greed index is only 28, indicating fear.
To translate: retail investors are leveraging up bullishly, but emotionally they are scared to death. They are afraid, holding on, and still charging in. Meanwhile, ETFs are steadily withdrawing — BTC spot ETFs had a net outflow of $1.28 billion this week, and ETH ETFs have been bleeding for six consecutive weeks, totaling $365 million.
Retail investors are holding on, institutions are pulling out. This structure is very familiar to me.
So what’s next? My personal view is simple: there will be a short-term rebound, but the rebound is for you to exit, not to chase.
The short-term critical support for BTC is 75,000; if it holds, it might test 78,000-79,000, but that level is full of people waiting to break even. If ETH holds 2,220, the rebound will first target 2,300; only after breaking that can we talk about 2,320-2,360. If it can’t break through, it’s a false recovery.
But ETF money won’t come back; above 79,000 and 2,300, the market can’t hold. After the shorts finish covering, who will take over? The retail investors’ long-short ratio of 3.27 has already lit the fuse.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 BTC is holding near $75,784 even as BTC ETF outflows of $416M dominate the discussion. That resilience is notable, but it leaves the market dependent on whether flows stabilize rather than on a broad risk-on impulse.Don't just focus on the BTC price next week; the US inflation data might be the real trigger!
The market is still volatile over the weekend, but what really deserves caution is next week's macro data.
Here are some key dates:
📌 November 10, 21:30
US October CPI Consumer Price Index.
📌 November 12, 21:30
US Initial Jobless Claims.
📌 November 12, 23:00
US October Existing Home Sales.
📌 November 13, 21:30
US October PPI Producer Price Index.
I'm particularly focused on Tuesday's CPI.
What the market fears most now is not bad data, but inflation picking up again, forcing the Fed to maintain a tight policy stance.
If inflation exceeds expectations, the dollar and US Treasury yields will strengthen, and BTC may come under pressure again; if inflation cools down, the market will have reason to trade risk appetite again.
But one thing can't be ignored: positive data doesn't necessarily mean prices will rise; it also depends on whether there is real buying in the spot market, and we shouldn't be misled by short-term contract-driven price pumps.
Next week, I will focus on the volume and price changes after the CPI release, rather than betting on the direction in advance.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $BTC The number of new coins coming in daily has decreased by about 75%, and this is mainly not due to the upgrade that happened a few days later.
In mid-October, the six-year vesting for early institutions arranged at genesis ended. According to public estimates, this originally contributed about 66.7 million coins per year. After it stopped, the new incoming coins are roughly only the block rewards, about 22 million per year, which is about a 75% reduction. The upgrade a few days later changed how block rewards are distributed, giving more to services that bring paid usage; any unearned rewards will be burned. It changed the distribution method, not the cut of three-quarters of the new supply.
The supply growth has slowed, but it hasn't automatically supported the price. The closing price on October 15 was about 1.08, now it's about 0.76, down roughly 29%. Less new issuance only means fewer new coins; the amount available for transfer also depends on staking and burning on the other side, so it won't decrease in sync with new issuance.
$FIL Ripple Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty said at the Swell conference: Regulatory rules are meant to restrain bad actors, not those who comply with the law.
It sounds like common sense, but in the crypto industry, this is a clear positioning statement. Over the past few years, the entanglement between $XRP and regulators has been one of the longest battles in the entire industry. From being sued to having issues dissected one by one, Ripple has paid more than just legal fees; it has turned "we follow the rules" into a burden that must be repeatedly proven.
Alderoty’s focus is elsewhere: 67 million Americans who hold and use cryptocurrencies are truly concerned about security. This number shifts the perspective — no longer debating whether the industry should be regulated, but acknowledging that ordinary people are already using it and how rules should be adapted accordingly.
Designing regulation with the assumption that "you have a problem by default" means the cost is not only borne by companies but also by these 67 million people together. Compliance costs never disappear; they only get passed down.
$XRP won’t change its price structure in the short term. But narratively, a project long labeled as a "regulatory adversary" actively restating itself as a "law-abiding entity" is the hardest part to quantify in pricing and the easiest to underestimate. The compliance stories of $BTC and $ETH have long been digested; $XRP’s story is not yet finished.
It’s worth pondering: When everyone is fighting to say "I’m not the bad guy," who decides who the bad guy is?In prediction markets, if a whale pushes the odds up, I’m also hesitant to take it as a real chance of winning. When the market is thin, it might just be that the side with more money is louder. Unlike usual crypto buying, here you also have to consider how the question is phrased and how it will be settled in the end. For example, guessing whether a crypto project can launch on time—no matter how many contracts you buy, you can’t write code for the team. But when it comes to guessing the closing price of Bitcoin, I get a bit suspicious: after buying contracts, would they actually go to the spot market to push the price?Will it exceed expectations?
Most likely it will slightly exceed. Historically, it often surpasses expectations, especially with losses being much smaller than anticipated. Revenue also often slightly exceeds expectations. Analysts' previews generally believe that since the annualized revenue reached $3 billion by the end of June, as long as Q3 maintains growth, it will easily exceed $900 million.
But the real key is not just the quarterly numbers, but:
Whether the annualized revenue is progressing toward the year-end target of $7 to $9 billion.
Profit margins, customer prepayments, and contract fulfillment status.
Whether expansion funds are sufficient.
Currently, the business looks very good, with a high probability of exceeding expectations, but the market cares more about "whether it can continue to expand at such a high speed." Stock price volatility will be significant. A fascinating disconnect in the gold narrative.
The market is highlighting a reported 59% rise in gold reserves, yet $XAUT is down 0.14% and $XAU is down 0.26% in today’s snapshot.
Reserve accumulation and daily price movements measure different things.
One headline doesn’t explain the entire market.NBIS Earnings Forecast: Why I Lean More Towards NO?
There is a noteworthy issue: the source of the strike price and the EPS calculation basis for final settlement might actually be inconsistent?
The market sets -$0.61 as the GAAP EPS strike price, claiming it comes from the consensus analyst expectations of Nasdaq/Zacks. But Zacks usually uses adjusted Street EPS, while the market ultimately explicitly requires using official GAAP EPS for settlement.
How big is the gap between the two bases?
Taking NBIS last quarter as an example:
Adjusted EPS: -$0.12
GAAP EPS: -$0.68
Currently, Finviz's forecast for this quarter is:
Adjusted EPS: -$0.72
GAAP EPS: -$2.18
This means the market might be setting the strike price using the consensus adjusted EPS expectation, but judging the outcome using GAAP EPS, which includes depreciation, stock-based compensation, and other expenses.
This obviously makes NO more likely to occur.
I estimate the probability of NO at about 80%, and YES about 20%. On one hand, the strong non-farm payrolls have heated up bets on a December rate hike again, while on the other hand, ETFs have withdrawn 1.647 billion in two weeks. But I watched all night, and not a single one is dropping; this contrast is really worth mentioning 😮
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温
The chain of events is not hard to follow. October's non-farm payrolls increased by 165,000, which is two and a half times the expected 65,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. Even the San Francisco Fed President said a rate hike might still be necessary. Institutions reacted most honestly, with money flowing out through ETFs, only turning back once on November 4.
But the market didn't catch this panic. The total contract positions across the network are 131.6 billion, down only 0.40% in one day, basically unchanged; 24-hour liquidations were 61.93 million, 65% less than yesterday, with long positions accounting for 68.9%, far from panic levels. The three major mainstream coins fell less than half a percent, with ZEC down 1.83% at the deepest, but no trend formed.
Why can't it be shaken? The ETFs withdrawing are from allocation and arbitrage funds, afraid that valuation anchors will be changed by rate hike expectations; contract positions haven't fled, and on-exchange leverage hasn't been shaken. Strong employment is a double-edged sword for crypto: rate hikes suppress valuations, but if employment doesn't collapse, the money to take over positions doesn't stop flowing. This is the confidence to hold steady.
My two short positions are still floating profits; I won't add or close them tonight. The real hurdle isn't this 1.6 billion, but the inflation data on Tuesday night: if it again exceeds expectations, bets will shift from heating up to being confirmed, and withdrawals will turn from portfolio adjustments to a trend. If it stands back above 77,000, I'll first reassess the shorts; if it falls below 75,000, I'll consider adding positions. What do you think, after this 1.6 billion withdrawal, is the bad news fully priced in, or is it just the beginning? 🤔Will the rise in $XLF PPI improve banks' net interest margin?
The US October PPI is scheduled to be released on November 13. If input price increases transmit to market interest rates, asset yields and deposit costs will still be repriced at different speeds. If loan yields increase and deposit costs remain controllable, there is room for net interest margin improvement. However, if deposit competition intensifies or corporate debt repayment ability weakens, high interest rates may instead squeeze profits.It's often said that when the US dollar weakens, Bitcoin should rise.
This week, the dollar weakened, but Bitcoin still dropped by 5%.
It's the opposite.
Why is this happening?
First, let's talk about how the dollar weakened.
The US government spends money by borrowing. This week, with a change in Congress, the big spending plans got blocked, so less borrowing happened. With fewer borrowers, interest rates dropped—from 5.3% down to 4.92%.
When interest rates get cheaper, money doesn't want to stay in dollars. The dollar fell to a five-week low.
According to the old logic, this should be the time for crypto to rise.
But crypto is falling. That's because sellers aren't calculating interest; they're afraid of AI.
Tech stocks have been dropping sharply these days. Many people buy stocks on margin.
When stocks fall, the platforms that lent them money worry they won't get repaid, so they sell the stocks directly to get cash. Cash gets tight, and Bitcoin is the easiest to sell, so they sell crypto first.
So this week, it's not that the dollar weakens and crypto rises,
it's that when money is tight, everything gets sold.
This week doesn't count.
Wait until people stop fearing AI; when the dollar falls, Bitcoin will rise again. $BTC 在这个75500到76400的缝里磨了两天了。不上不下，看着看着就想把软件关了。恐慌指数勉强爬到了28，还是那个半死不活的样子。 过去一天又爆了8000多万刀，多单占了6000多万。一句话，现在的行情就是钝刀子割肉，多头在熬，空头也不敢太嚣张。 不过钱可没闲着，全去$ZEC 那儿抱团了。 大盘跌成这个鬼样子，ZEC周线居然是红的，NU7升级完了之后，硬生生在1250到1300扛住了。链上还有个奇葩事：有1600多个ETH从Tornado洗出来，反手全换成了ZEC。还有个关联地址跑到Hyperliquid去开了20倍的BTC多单。 你看，洗黑钱的在买隐私币，赌命的在开多，大家都不买现货，都在玩心跳。ZEC现在就是靠着筹码集中和叙事在硬撑，1250是它的底裤，上面1344过不去的话，千万别无脑追，这种币洗盘起来六亲不认。 聊个八卦，币安的CFO今天辞职了。 彭博刚爆的，Kaiser Ng走人，换了个以前在摩根士丹利做投行的新人上来。官方说这是半年前就定好的计划，但大家心里都有数，前脚刚被黑客搞走60多亿，提现刚恢复，后脚管钱的大佬就不干了，这让外面的人怎么Short positions make money by others paying
Three short positions have an unrealized profit of over 9 million U.
At the same time, there is also over 12 million U in funding fees collected.
What does this number mean:
Funding fees are not rewards issued by the platform.
They are payments made by long position holders to short position holders at fixed intervals.
What was actually done:
$BTC and $ETH used 5x full margin, $SOL used 7x.
The nominal value is 420 million U, with very heavy positions opened.
Common misinterpretations:
Low leverage does not equal safety.
Under full margin, the three positions share one margin; a single rebound affects all.
A distant liquidation price does not mean unrealized profits won’t be given back first.
Funding fees can be collected because long holders are still willing to pay during this period.
If this premise changes, the ledger immediately reverses direction.
#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 $BTC $ETH 13亿美元，这是本周华尔街现货ETF单周净流出的数字，其中BlackRock一天就被抽走4亿多，创下六月末以来最猛的一次撤离。你猜这种时候，谁在悄悄接货？ 早上刷到这组数据时我愣了两秒，因为上一次见到这么难看的流出曲线，正好是BTC砸到6万出头那会儿，而那天恰恰是我定投记录里最舒服的一笔。 先把事实摆清楚：ETF大额赎回叠加金价走弱，海外媒体开始追问"华尔街今年还买得动吗"。但真正值得盯的不是赎回本身，而是钱撤出之后往哪儿去了——这才是板块强弱的信号源。 我自己的定投系统今天照常扣了400 USDC，成交均价75719美元，连续第三天买在持仓成本线下方，账户来到1.7515枚，进度58.38%。说这个不是晒单，是想说明一个节奏感：当BTC在7万5附近被反复摩擦时，定投型资金的动作是机械的，而ETF型资金的脚步是情绪化的，两者错位的地方，往往就是短期底部酝酿的位置。 这轮最容易被忽略的一点是强弱排序变了。BTC被ETF赎回压着走，但ETH和部分山寨并没有同步破位，跌幅更收敛，说明抛压主要集中在被动型敞口上，而不是全市场风险偏好整体塌陷。换句话说，恐慌是局部的，不是系统性的。 偏多路径看：When I saw this message, the first thing that came to mind was the most common mistake in business: mistaking revenue for profit. The books may look lively, but if you can't clearly calculate input and output, cash flow may not be stable, and risk reserves definitely cannot be spared.
The Solana ecosystem weekly report revealed a net inflow of $2.6 billion in on-chain Real World Assets (RWA) over the past six months. Progress with Samsung Wallet and Schroders Fund was also highlighted this week. My judgment is that this is generally positive attention for RWA, but it is not enough to prove that the related business has been successfully executed.
Net inflow indicates that funds have entered, but it does not mean sustainable income has been generated. From my business perspective, we still need to see whether these assets can be continuously utilized and whether the income generated can cover customer acquisition, compliance, and operating costs. The materials do not provide these accounts, so for now, I cannot count it as profit.
Cash flow and risk reserves also need to be examined separately. I speculate that if the underlying asset repayments are slow and user withdrawal demands are concentrated, then even if on-chain circulation is convenient, it may not eliminate maturity mismatches. What ordinary users really need to understand is what the repayments rely on and who bears the losses, rather than just looking at the scale of net inflows.
I will continue to follow this fund movement, but I am more interested in seeing whether subsequent disclosures can clarify asset quality, exit arrangements, and risk buffers; in business, scale is the facade, but the ability to withstand risk is the real strength.The whole network is crowded with short positions, am I the only one bullish?🤔
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温
Hyperliquid whale's BTC short positions have piled up to the highest level since October 2025, with net shorts nearly twice the size of longs; spot ETFs continue to see large outflows, macro selling pressure is obvious, on the surface there really seems to be no reason to be bullish.
But my view is different:
73K is the core structural support this round, 75K is the first short-term defense line. If it breaks below 75K, it will likely quickly test around 74K, but there is still buying support below 73K, so it’s not suitable to be purely bearish.
Logic:
Currently, shorts are actively positioned and have not reached an extremely crowded level, funding rates have not hit extremes.
Once the price stabilizes in the 73K–75K range and climbs back above 76K, it can easily trigger a chain short squeeze, leading to a sharp rally. ETF outflows and macro bearish factors are facts, but the rebound elasticity from contract squeezes should not be ignored.
Trading idea:
I prefer to lightly and gradually go long in the 74K–73.2K range, with stop loss below 72.8K; aggressive traders can try small long positions near 75K.
If there is a strong volume break below 73K, confirming the bearish logic, exit immediately;
If it holds the range and breaks above 76K with volume, watch for a short squeeze rally, with the first target at 77.5K–78.5K.
$BTC $ETH The weakest link has never been getting the direction wrong, but starting to average down before the stop loss is executed. Have you ever had the moment of "just hold on a bit longer"? This week I saw two very typical cases: a $700 loss on crude oil and a $2000 loss on SanDisk. The numbers aren't exaggerated, but the process is painful—the information was misinterpreted, the judgment followed suit, the stop loss wasn't executed in time, and when the price moved in the opposite direction, instead of cutting losses, the average price was pulled down, resulting in a position so heavy that even reducing it became impossible. 🍓 I stared at this review for a long time because its rhythm is almost identical to what I see in derivative structures. On the surface, "the heat is still there," with contract positions and trading volume quite lively, but the real support is thin: once the price moves against the position, leveraged positions are pushed first, stop loss orders cluster in the same area, slippage amplifies, and only then does the spot market sentiment react. It looks like news is driving it, but what is actually being traded is often the fragility of the position structure itself. Of course, a bullish path exists: if positions are cleared during a pullback, leverage decreases, and spot buying re-enters key ranges, the rebound will be lighter and cleaner, and altcoins will have a chance to switch from "only contracts are lively" to "spot is willing to follow." But the risk points are clear—the positions with average costs continuously moving down are the ones most likely to be forced to sell chips on the next spike; and until the crowding on the derivatives side eases, any false breakout may first wash out a batch of people thinking "it's about to reverse." So my current judgment is: this round looks more like the structure squeezing out water rather than sentiment fully turning bullish On November 8, market analyst Murphy published an article discussing "Will BTC return to a bear market?" He cited the Realized Profit-Loss Ratio Momentum (RPLR-M), noting that observing periods of accelerated growth or decline in the profit-loss ratio under the entity metric helps identify trend turning points. Looking at the long-term cycle, the most valuable references are how long the red or green zones persist, whether the peak of the top green line decreases, and whether the trough of the bottom red line narrows. Typically, at the start of a bear market, the red line trough is at its lowest, indicating accelerating losses. Afterwards, the price hits new lows again, but the trough begins to narrow, meaning the new round of decline can no longer trigger panic selling of the same scale, until it finally "turns green." This process represents a full bear market cycle. From 2018 to 2019, this process lasted about 14 months; from 2021 to 2023, about 13 months; and this current cycle has lasted about 11 months. Based on the duration and the narrowing of the red line trough since the initial bottom, there has been a sufficiently long period of losses and panic, meeting the criteria for a cyclical bear market. $ETH $OKB #软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？
If the New York Times report is true ("SoftBank is reportedly investing hundreds of millions of dollars in OpenAI"), I believe OpenAI is currently in a death watch period...
According to Ramp's data, OAI accounts for 55-60% of ANT token spending, but this is only sustained by burning over $10 billion in cash each quarter. If they cannot complete the current funding round, they will have to drastically cut subsidies and cede more market share to ANT.
If SoftBank does not continue to invest, and ANT's IPO valuation is downgraded to $1.25 trillion, OAI basically should not be valued higher than its previous $852 billion financing valuation deal.As of the morning of November 8, during the full trading week (US session 11.2–11.6), BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.282 billion, which at first glance looks like a collective institutional exit 😮
Breaking down the data, the divergence is quite clear: on Friday, BlackRock's IBIT had a net outflow of $403 million, but Fidelity's FBTC actually had a net inflow of $42.8 million.
Capital pressure is a fact, but directly concluding a "collective institutional retreat" is somewhat one-sided. Net flow cannot pinpoint specific sellers, nor does it mean BlackRock itself is bearish. The total amount needs caution, and the differences between funds are also worth noting.
A reminder: US stock ETFs are closed over the weekend, so this data is from last week’s statistics, not new outflows today.
$BTC #BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 Whale groups are massively shorting Bitcoin, with shorting pressure reaching the highest point since October 2025. Currently, the short positions held by whale accounts range between $892 million and $924 million, while long positions are only between $454 million and $483 million. The largest single short position is valued at approximately $178.5 million, with an average entry price of about $76,400, while the current Bitcoin price hovers around $75,800. Data shows that these whale accounts have been continuously increasing their short positions since turning net short on October 27. However, some market analysts point out that an extremely crowded short position is a double-edged sword. If the price does not drop as expected but instead breaks upward, shorts will face forced buybacks to close positions. This forced covering could trigger a sharp short squeeze, driving prices to accelerate upward. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC Latest ETF data revision shows that this week's capital outflow is much larger than previously estimated 📊
On November 6, the US BTC spot ETF had a net outflow of $412 million; from November 2 to 6, the total net outflow for the week was $1.282 billion. On Friday alone, IBIT saw an outflow of $403 million, which many previous statistics did not include, making it easy to underestimate the real selling pressure.
This is why I am now paying extra attention to the timing of data updates. Market fluctuations are fast, and subsequent data revisions will directly change the assessment. Judging "institutional selling pressure is about to end" based on incomplete data can easily backfire.
Key question: With such a large continuous redemption volume, how much incremental buying is needed to absorb it?
Short-term sentiment may warm up, but the incremental funds that can steadily digest the selling pressure need time to be verified.
A single week's outflow does not mean BTC will perform poorly in the long term, but short-term changes in supply and demand must be taken seriously. Going forward, focus on two points: outflows starting to slow down and prices stabilizing at lows—these are the signals worth tracking.
The hardest part at this stage is the selling pressure right in front of us, while occasional rebounds interfere with judgment.
At this time, being less eager to guess the direction and more patient is far more important than obsessing over price points.
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 One day, 3 trillion dollars. Trump directly attributed this to the election results, saying the US "has taken a big step backward in history." Setting aside the stance, this number itself is worth pausing over—3 trillion is not a single stock hitting the limit down, but the entire market's pricing benchmark being re-evaluated.
Note his wording: within one day. Not a week, not a month. This speed usually corresponds to liquidity suddenly withdrawing, not fundamentals gradually deteriorating. Fundamentals don't change a 3 trillion judgment within 24 hours.
Mechanically, risk assets form a network. Margin pressure on the stock side transmits through leverage; the first to be sold are often not the worst assets, but the easiest to sell—in the crypto market, that's $BTC, the deepest liquidity asset. So the real issue isn't "whether coins fall," but "whether the hole on the US stock side has been patched."
Trump added later that America will definitely make a comeback, becoming stronger and more glorious. This is political language, not market language. The market only recognizes two things: when selling pressure stops, and who is buying. He didn't answer.
My judgment is, in the short term, neither $BTC nor $ETH should be seen as safe-haven assets; pricing power has been in the hands of US stocks these past few months. The real signal isn't how much it rebounds on a certain day, but whether US stock trading volume can shrink at low levels—that's what clearing selling pressure looks like.
A question to leave: if 3 trillion evaporates in one day, what conditions are needed for 3 trillion to be replenished in one day? Thinking this through is more useful than staring at K-lines.The buying logic for $ENA should be a "short-term rebound after confirming a bottom in a weak coin," not trend-following or bottom-fishing at a specific price.
The latest external reference price is about 0.15354, with an intraday data range of 0.15235—0.16138; $BTC is about 75,825. The quote does not have an exact transaction time; use OKX as the standard.
Project buying logic and execution conditions
The trading goal is to capture the short-term rebound brought by BTC stabilization, ENA bottoming, and short covering; no preset mid-term trend reversal.
Potential favorable factors: In the last CoinGlass snapshot, ENA funding rate was negative; if the price stops falling, short covering may amplify the rebound. Negative funding rate itself does not trigger buying.
Current unfavorable factors: The high and low points on the previous 15-minute chart are moving lower, and the rebound lacks sustainability; ENA is still weaker than BTC, and buying pressure has not yet proven it can reverse the structure.
Price confirmation: Form higher lows on the 15-minute chart, then break through the most recent rebound high; only after a pullback holds can entry be evaluated.
Capital confirmation: Spot CVD improves synchronously, and rising trading volume increases. If the price rises but OI decreases, consider that it is mainly short covering and should not be regarded as continuous new buying.
Market conditions: BTC must at least hold the recent correction structure; if BTC breaks the previous low, cancel the ENA rebound buying plan.
Stop-loss principle: Place below the actual pullback low, leaving reasonable fluctuation space; exit once stop-loss is triggered, no averaging down.
Take-profit principle: First look at the previous rebound high or dense trading area; potential profit after fees should be at least twice the risk. 周末流动性薄得像一层纸，任何一点卖压都能被放大成心理折磨。有位交易者凌晨刷新账户才发现，$BTC 均价78596.8、现价75719.9，浮亏-199.65U，ROI-366.02%，维持保证金率1441.39%，强平价69350.9——仓位暂时安全，但这份"安全"正被时间慢慢啃食。真正值得琢磨的不是亏损数字，而是他选择什么都不做。 这轮下跌最反直觉的地方在于：不是杠杆先崩，而是流动性先撤。周末订单簿变薄，价格下滑的摩擦力被放大，$SOL 从均价95.79跌到89.19，浮亏-94.57U，ROI-137.80%，强平价58.35，卖压持续而承接稀薄。同一时间$SNDK 从896.7滑向830.1，浮亏-23.63U，ROI-74.25%，跟随大盘走弱。三个仓位、三种跌幅，却共享同一个背景——没有增量资金的周末，任何方向都显得格外沉重。 多数人盯着"浮亏扩大"这个结果，却忽略了更关键的信号：这位交易者明确不加保证金、不随意止损，选择持仓等待市场选方向。这不是麻木，而是一种被动的仓位管理——用时间换空间，把决策权交还给市场结构本身。当维持保证金率仍高达1441.39%、强平价远离现价时，Today I looked back at the daily chart of $BTC from the last bull market and found something quite surprising!
After the effective breakout above the 365-day moving average in 2023, it took a full 756 days—more than two years—before it fell below it again! This time, it only took 48 days!
Currently, BTC has dropped back to around $75,800, with the 365-day moving average near $76,600. A few days ago, it barely managed to climb above it, but didn’t hold for long and fell back down—almost like just checking in briefly! Honestly, this is quite different from the 2023 trend. I originally thought this moving average would provide solid support, but it’s been repeatedly broken.
However, I’m not ready to declare the bull market dead just because of this dip below the line. Next, we’ll see if it can quickly climb back above $76,600. The historical pattern isn’t as reliable this time; the market really isn’t giving any leeway!
Hopefully, Bitcoin can quickly reclaim the 365-day moving average!