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Maji just cashed out BAYC, then immediately pushed his chips onto the ETH long table. Over the past five days, he sold 15 NFTs, losing about $505,000, only cashing out $223,000; yesterday he sold another BAYC for 12.5 ETH (about $28,000). The funds recovered did not exit the market but were instead used to increase a 25x leveraged long position.
Current bet:
· Long position size: 540 ETH
· Leverage: 25x
· Entry price: $2304.23
· Liquidation price: $2203.40
· Current unrealized loss: about $32,000
The signals on the other side are not friendly: BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw a net outflow of over $1.6 billion in a single week, institutions are withdrawing, but Maji is holding on. Faith and leverage stacked together mean the buffer before the liquidation line is thin.
Will ETH save him this time? Or will the next bearish candle answer for the market.The market is heavily leaning bearish, but I don't think the bullish scenario should be ignored. According to Hyperliquid positioning data, whale BTC shorts have reached their highest level since October 2025, with net short exposure nearly twice the size of longs. Meanwhile, ETF outflows and macroeconomic uncertainty continue to weigh on sentiment. However, crowded bearish expectations can create opportunities if price refuses to break lower. Key BTC levels: • $75K – First important support. • #软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？
SoftBank's net profit for the quarter was ¥347.3 billion, far exceeding Bloomberg's consensus analyst forecast of ¥166 billion, and the 18% year-on-year decline was also better than market concerns.
The profit driver was Intel, not OpenAI. SoftBank's Intel shares surged 216% that quarter, contributing about ¥1.3 trillion in one-time revaluation gains. OpenAI's valuation remained flat compared to the end of the previous quarter, with no revaluation, contributing zero to SoftBank's investment gains or losses. In the previous quarter, OpenAI contributed about $25 billion in valuation gains, but this quarter the core engine directly "shut down." Dragged down by this, the Vision Fund's pre-tax profit was only ¥5.427 billion, a year-on-year plunge of 98.8%.
SoftBank has cumulatively invested $44.6 billion in OpenAI, with a fair value of $89.6 billion, nearly doubling the book profit, but this is a cumulative figure, not a new contribution for the quarter. SoftBank has committed to a final investment of about $64.6 billion, holding about 13%, with part of the funds coming from a $40 billion bridge loan, even pledging Arm shares. Betting on unrealized AI valuations with certain assets is a more worrisome signal behind the financial report.
When OpenAI's valuation stalls, SoftBank's profit engine slows down accordingly—this is a direct reflection that the "heavy bet" has yet to translate into sustainable profitability.
$OPENAI $AI $AKE At the 0 o'clock settlement, $ZEC longs paid shorts 0.0936%. Seeing this number and shouting that longs control the market makes me want to laugh a bit.
Those willing to pay to hold positions, frankly, it just means there were many crowded on the long side at that time and they were anxious. But once the settlement passed, the lowest price could still be seen at 1235; yesterday the price was still fluctuating around 1310–1330. If there was really that much driving force, would the price drop right after paying the fee?
High fees only indicate that longs were very crowded at that time, not the direction. The money that needed to be paid was paid, but the price was still not pushed up. Positions first paid the cost.
As for what happens next, this number itself doesn't give me an answer.🔥For BTC to sustain its rebound, relying solely on short covering might not be enough! In October, the US added 165,000 nonfarm jobs, significantly exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.1% and wage growth also surpassing forecasts. The more resilient the employment, the less pressure the Fed has to cut rates quickly, which has intensified bets on a rate hike in December.
💵The rise in the US dollar and Treasury yields increases the opportunity cost of risk assets; when Treasury yields become more attractive, some funds may choose to wait and watch rather than chase BTC. Coupled with weak flows into spot ETFs, for the market to form a sustained uptrend, it needs stronger spot buying to take over.
⚠️But don’t equate macro headwinds directly with price drops; the market may price in these factors early or readjust expectations after the CPI release. Watching the market today, the key is to observe whether BTC’s rebound is supported by volume and spot demand, rather than just short-term price spikes. If only contracts are driving the move and spot lags, the sustainability of the rebound is questionable. Remember, funding rates and liquidation data can only assist judgment, not replace spot trends. Do you think BTC’s next move is more constrained by a lack of buying or by macro positives? #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 165K jobs are not the whole story; revised numbers are also changing expectations
Don't just focus on the addition of 165,000 people; the data for the previous two months was revised upward by a total of 84,000, which will also affect market judgment.
Looking at $BTC: current price about $75,810, down 0.25% intraday. OI 24h +2.0%, fee rate +0.0072%/8h (CoinGecko perpetual summary), contract participation is rising, but the fee rate is mildly positive, indicating bulls are present but it’s not yet extremely crowded.
Using $SOL as a reference, price about $89.14, down 1.11% in 24 hours; OI 24h -4.8%, fee rate +0.0062%/8h (CoinGecko perpetual summary). Price and open interest are falling together, risk appetite is contracting, and spot follow-through still needs observation.
BTC’s OI is increasing while SOL’s OI is shrinking; capital’s reaction to macro news is inconsistent.
If employment continues to be resilient, interest rate expectations may be harder to ease; are you more concerned about new jobs or historical revisions?
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% #BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 #软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ SoftBank's heavy investment in OpenAI results in a strong Q2 financial report only due to valuation gains on paper, not actual realized profits. The performance heavily depends on OpenAI's valuation changes, representing a high-leverage AI bet that looks good short-term but carries significant long-term uncertainty.
Positive: The rise in OpenAI's valuation brings substantial fair value gains, boosting SoftBank's net assets and book profits, which is the core support for this quarter's results; SoftBank uses this to anchor itself in the general AI track and to build out the computing power ecosystem story.
Risks: The gains are unrealized and lack cash flow; OpenAI itself continues to incur large losses and has yet to prove its commercialization; SoftBank keeps selling assets and increasing leverage to fulfill funding commitments, with investment concentration too high. If AI valuations correct downward, the financial report will quickly come under pressure, risking a repeat of past investment pitfalls.Big brother, this position clearly shows a large capital move. The total scale of perpetual contracts is about 600 million USD, with $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL all shorted simultaneously, using 5 to 7 times leverage on the full position. The opening positions are generally high, and currently, the combined floating profit of the three short orders is close to ten million USD, with funding fees still continuously flowing in. Looking at the leverage alone, it’s not aggressive; the liquidation price is far from the current price, clearly indicating a long-term short squeeze strategy to earn fees and add positions on pullbacks.
But what really needs attention is not the floating profit, but the volume. Such a large short position concentrated on three mainstream assets means that once the market shows a strong rebound, large holders are very likely to actively take profits and close positions. The massive short covering will create a push similar to "short fuel," potentially triggering long liquidations and a follow-up rally. Don’t treat large capital directions as ironclad rules; oscillating rebounds can disrupt the rhythm at any time. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Weekly Review｜ETF Funds, Leverage, and Price: Which Signals Are Truly Useful?
This week, BTC first surged to about 81,000, then sharply dropped to about 75,000 on Thursday, and afterward traded sideways around 76,000.
📌 Cause and Effect Ranking
On Thursday, the entire network liquidated about $1.25 billion, nearly 90% of which were long positions (CoinGlass rolling 24h), acting more like an amplifier of the decline rather than the cause. Spot ETFs had a net outflow of about $1.28 billion over 5 trading days this week, with inflows only on Wednesday, indicating a weak capital flow, but the flow data is delayed and price and flow influence each other.
✅ Useful Signals
1. Whether ETFs have continuous outflows and if the price can hold during outflows
2. Whether leverage is truly cleared after liquidations or quickly added back
3. The Fear and Greed Index at 28 only indicates a cold sentiment and cannot be used alone as a bottoming signal
🔭 Next Week's Watch
The US October CPI is scheduled for release on 11/10 (Tuesday) at 8:30 AM Eastern Time.
· If ETFs turn to inflows and the price holds above 78,000, the rebound may continue
· If outflows persist and the price breaks this week's low, leverage may be liquidated again
This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice $BTC #BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 Last Wednesday afternoon, the number of $USELESS token holders suddenly surged by 40%, but the average holding per address dropped from 1,200 tokens to 380 tokens, a typical "breaking up chips and distributing to retail investors" pattern. Short 10x at 0.1369, exit at 0.12847, 61.57% profit.
A surge in address count combined with a sharp drop in average holdings is a textbook distribution signal, but Meme coins can also "fake distribution and then pump" to shake out shorts.
The break-even line is firmly welded, the mark price is not the transaction price, and slippage will bite. Withdrawal capital is firmly welded to stop losses on the move. If you missed it, wait for the next structural cycle. $BTC $ETH Price and Market Overview
As of early November 2026, SOL is in a clear correction cycle, showing pressure in performance:
· Price Level: Recently fluctuating between $89 - $95, down nearly 47% from the 52-week high of about $172; the decline in just the past month ranges from 13% to 19%.
· Market Cap and Staking: Total market capitalization is approximately $53 - $56 billion. Although the annualized staking yield is about 5.23%, 4.82 million SOL have been unstaked in the past month, indicating some holders are exiting.
· Capital Outflow: The stablecoin supply on the network decreased by $1.6 billion during the same period, reflecting a decline in capital activity within the ecosystem.
Despite the weak coin price, the Solana network completed its most significant technical upgrade in history in October 2026:
· Alpenglow Consensus Launch: Activated on the mainnet on October 21, this was the first full consensus mechanism replacement, compressing transaction finalization time from about 12.8 seconds down to 150-196 milliseconds.
· Block Time Halved: On October 9, through an upgrade, the target slot time was shortened from 400 milliseconds to 200 milliseconds, further enhancing network throughput.
· Performance Positioning: This upgrade makes Solana highly competitive in real-time financial scenarios such as high-frequency trading, stablecoin payments, and RWA (Real World Assets). Capital flow in one sentence: $BTC withstood a $416 million ETF outflow, holding price near 75,784, with resilience driven by capital flow dependence rather than a rebound in risk appetite.
Even though market discussions are dominated by $BTC ETF outflows as high as $416 million, $BTC still maintains around $75,784. This resilience is noteworthy, indicating that despite selling pressure, the price has not significantly broken down. However, it should be clear that current support depends more on whether capital flow remains stable rather than broad risk appetite driving it. In other words, the market relies on capital support, not a recovery in sentiment. If outflows accelerate again, this assessment will be challenged. This is not financial advice. $BTC
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温
#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 Negative factors dulling, not equal to bottom confirmation
Bitcoin is reported at $75,799, Ethereum at $2,234.69, both slightly down intraday but hugging the lower edge of the near one-week range: BTC is at the 14.4% percentile, ETH only 11.7%. Over the past three days, both have dropped 5.93% and 7.95% respectively, with the seven-day decline narrowing to 2.51% and 1.27%. The sideways movement after continuous pullbacks looks more like a pause in selling pressure rather than a signal of stabilization.
Notably, negative factors are not few: continuous outflows from ETFs, stolen funds from Binance being moved, changes in US regulatory expectations, and bearish community discussions, yet prices hardly dip further. Behind this is the fact that leveraged funds have been cleared in advance—open interest decreased by 1.42% in 24 hours, liquidations around $60 million, down 70% from the previous day; funding rates are positive but only 0.0087% for BTC and 0.0061% for ETH, bulls dare not rush ahead, bears have no intention to aggressively attack. The long-short ratio is 58 to 42, and the fear and greed index is 26, all pointing to low-level wait-and-see.
Therefore, the current market is not "all negative factors exhausted," but rather "negative factors dulling." Reduced floating positions lower the momentum for further sharp declines, but the lack of incremental buying makes rebounds difficult to proceed smoothly. In the short term, it is more likely to maintain weak oscillation, waiting for new directions from funding or regulatory aspects. It is too early to treat the sideways movement as a bottom. #RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ Neutron is the core of Rocket Lab's mid-to-long-term valuation and also the biggest highlight of this earnings report. The project has been postponed again to its maiden flight in 2027, with the main bottleneck focused on manufacturing defects in the first stage carbon fiber tank; progress on the engine, fairing, and second stage subsystems is relatively smooth, but the tank issue will extend the overall testing cycle, increase R&D expenses, and delay the realization of medium-sized reusable launch revenue. Market expectations have already been lowered, but management's statements during the call regarding the tank process rectification, testing plans, and cash burn pace remain key variables for short-term stock price fluctuations. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温
The US added 165,000 non-farm jobs in October, far exceeding the expected 65,000, and the market's bet on a Fed rate hike in December has risen to 78%.
The previously anticipated easing trades are facing repricing, and beyond macro pressures, institutional funds are also withdrawing. Last week, US spot BTC saw the largest weekly outflow since the end of June.
This means BTC is currently facing not only interest rate pressure but also a shortage of incremental funds. Short-term rebounds can come from short covering, but to form a trend reversal, spot buying and ETF funds need to re-enter.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #伯克希尔Q3回购96亿美元，现金储备创新高 $BTC $ETH Berkshire repurchased $9.6 billion in Q3, cash reserves hit a new high: This company, known for "waiting for the right opportunity," is simultaneously piling up cash to new highs while increasing its buybacks of its own stock. The Q3 report released on November 7 shows Berkshire's operating profit for the third quarter was about $12.7 billion, down 5.8% year-on-year from about $13.48 billion in the same period last year, mainly dragged down by a decline in insurance underwriting profits. More eye-catching is the capital move: the company repurchased about $9.6 billion of its own stock in the quarter, exceeding about $4.5 billion in Q2 and about $234 million in Q1, marking the largest single-quarter buyback in the company's history. As of September 30, cash, cash equivalents, and short-term U.S. Treasury securities totaled about $377.4 billion, setting a new record and also higher than about $365.5 billion at the end of June. This set of figures carries an implication that cannot be ignored. The continued increase in cash indicates management still believes that high-quality external targets are not cheap enough and prefers to keep money in U.S. Treasuries; at the same time, spending $9.6 billion on buybacks shows they consider their own stock price more attractive relative to intrinsic value. On one hand, they remain inactive on acquisitions; on the other, they buy back their own shares, essentially saying "external prices are expensive, ours are relatively cheap." This move happened after Greg Abel took over from Buffett as head of the company, with buyback intensity more pronounced than in Buffett's later tenure. For the crypto market, this signal is not easy. Bitcoin is currently fluctuating slightly around $76,076 (24-hour $BTC price just slowly moved near 76,000. However, the funding rate is very low, basically hovering around zero. The market seems to be continuously moving up, but the open interest in both 1-hour and 4-hour contracts hasn't increased. Short-term positions are even slightly decreasing.
The price is rising but open interest isn't increasing, which is a bit surprising. On-exchange funds show no active willingness to go long. This rebound isn't driven by increased long positions but more like a passive push from short covering. Both long and short sides on the leverage end are cautious. The market lacks new buying momentum to follow through.
Looking at a larger timeframe for position, this rebound just hit the daily resistance near 76,000. Several moving averages on the 4-hour chart are pressing downwards, with EMA20 continuing to slope down. The 1-hour EMA20 is also below EMA50. The daily structure is overall bearish, and the rebound momentum is weak. There are many sell orders above, and without volume expansion, it's hard to break through.
I am bearish on the outlook. Strong daily resistance is blocking above the current price. Without long position follow-through on the sentiment side, the market is likely to face resistance and move lower next.
$ETH $SOL #CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% 美国现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）已抹去2026年全部资金流入。约261亿美元的抛售规模，完全抵消了年初至今累计256亿美元的净流入。这一逆转标志着该加密投资工具自推出以来最剧烈的情绪转变之一。 以太坊ETF年内同样录得负收益，表明回调已从比特币扩散至更广泛的数字资产领域。同步流出的态势显示，投资者正在全面削减加密资产敞口，而非在加密产品之间进行轮动。 资金撤离的驱动因素 此轮抛售是宏观压力与加密市场内部因素共同作用的结果。美国国债收益率上升和美元走强降低了风险资产的吸引力，而去年上涨后的获利了结加速了赎回。此次平仓也凸显了基差交易和套利策略在ETF资金流中日益重要的作用：随着期货溢价收窄，此前推动资金流入的套利交易变得无利可图，迫使基金平仓。 宏观逆风：利率长期维持高位的预期和债券收益率走强，削弱了市场对波动性资产的兴趣。 基差交易平仓：期货溢价收窄使现金套利交易的利润下降，引发机械性资金流出。 动量反转：在2025年强劲表现后，趋势跟踪和动量基金在价格跌破关键技术水平时削减了敞口。 对市场结构的影响 此次赎回规模意义重大，因为ETF已成为比特币边际需求的主要来源。持续的资金流出The long liquidation scale below is approximately $3.06 million, while the short liquidation above is only about $760,000, making the price structurally more prone to being "pulled down." A large number of pending orders are concentrated around $0.072, about 7% lower than the screenshot price of $0.10076; whereas the upward space to $0.0787 is only about 1.7% (based on data at the time of writing). This means that the current spot risk-reward ratio for chasing longs is roughly 1.7% upside potential versus 7% downside risk, which is a typical negatively skewed trade.
Regarding funding rates, data varies across different time periods: some periods saw the CAP rate in negative territory at -0.0172% (4 hours), superficially indicating shorts are paying; however, combined with the nearly stagnant price and slightly expanding open interest, a more reasonable interpretation is that funds are probing the crowded direction rather than shorts dominating. Regardless of the rate's sign, the core fact remains: long positions are already quite crowded, and the sustainability of marginal buying is weakening. 401(k) rules entering White House review does not mean pensions will immediately buy crypto
Rules entering review do not mean retirement accounts will immediately allocate crypto assets. The Labor Department's 401(k) alternative asset rules have been sent to the White House for review, focusing on performance, fees, liquidity, valuation, benchmarks, and complexity.
Looking again at $BTC: current price about $75,810, down 0.25% intraday. OI 24h +2.0%, fee rate +0.0072%/8h (CoinGecko perpetual summary), contract participation is rising, but the fee rate is mildly positive, indicating bulls are present but it’s not yet extremely crowded.
Using $ETH as a reference, price about $2,234.31, down 0.63% in 24 hours; OI 24h -0.1%, fee rate +0.0055%/8h (CoinGecko perpetual summary). Price has fallen but open interest is almost flat, temporarily more like waiting for direction rather than new leverage entering clearly.
BTC and ETH contract data reflect trader positions but cannot prove retirement accounts have bought in.
After implementation, it also depends on whether trustees adopt it. Do you think pensions will allocate BTC first?
#美国加密监管：《CLARITY法案》推进受阻，401(k)规则进入最终审查 #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% Solana's LST and restaking sector has been pushed to the extreme. On the surface, APYs are all above 7%, but when breaking down the yield composition, the real external MEV and inflation subsidies vary greatly within the high staking returns.
Comparing these three targets:
$JTO: The absolute leader in Solana LST and MEV. Mechanically, the protocol distributes most MEV income to stakers, and the JTO token has the JIP-38 proposal design. However, the pain point is that the "fuel" for its buyback flywheel heavily depends on transaction activity on the Solana chain. Once the Meme craze cools down, the buyback strength will shrink accordingly.
$MNDE (Marinade): The earliest native LST. Mechanically, it focuses on a decentralized validator set and uses part of the staking fees to buy back MNDE. But it has been significantly squeezed by rising stars like Jito, suffering serious market share loss. Without top-tier MEV capture capability, its staking yield lacks competitiveness, and token empowerment has become empty talk.
$CLOUD: The new star in LST infrastructure. Positioned as the "LST of LSTs," its mechanism design is complex, attempting to capture value through liquidity aggregation. But currently, the token is purely a governance symbol; the real protocol-generated revenue is not strictly tied to CLOUD, lacking immediate cash flow support.
Conclusion:
JTO is "mechanism works but depends on on-chain transaction heat"; MNDE is "losing share, becoming mediocre"; CLOUD is "narratively clever but zero token capture."Geopolitical risks are heating up, is BTC really a natural safe haven?
Every time there is news from the Middle East, some people immediately call BTC a safe-haven asset. I think this conclusion is too hasty.
Looking at $BTC: current price about $75,810, down 0.25% intraday. OI 24h +2.0%, funding rate +0.0072%/8h (CoinGecko perpetual summary), contract participation is rising, but the funding rate is mildly positive, indicating bulls are present, but it’s not yet extremely crowded.
Using $ZEC as a reference, price about $1,260.58, down 3.88% in 24 hours; OI 24h -5.9%, funding rate +0.0265%/8h (CoinGecko perpetual summary). Price is falling while positions shrink, funding rate remains relatively high, indicating bullish cost pressure is not low, deleveraging may not be over yet.
The same news affects these two coins differently, showing that capital does not treat $BTC and $ZEC as the same kind of risk.
BTC still has risk asset characteristics, and ZEC’s decline may also be influenced by its own positions. Do you think crypto assets can be considered safe-haven tools?
#美军扩大对伊朗封锁，霍尔木兹重开仍存分歧 #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% Just past midnight, my eyelids are fighting to stay open. Before sleeping, I take one last look at the capital flow. Brothers, don’t think that just because the market hasn’t crashed hard now, everything is fine. Look at this capital data — the main players are playing a trick of overtly repairing the plank road while secretly crossing the Wei River. It’s very shady!
$BTC in the short term over the past few hours shows rows of green bars in both contracts and spot, with money pouring in crazily. It looks good, but if you look to the right at the 30-day long cycle, the contract side has a net outflow as high as 8.4 billion, which means short-term funds are just hyping themselves up inside, while big money has long taken advantage of the rebound to pack up and leave. The small inflow on the spot side now is just quietly picking up some bloodied chips at the bottom.
Looking at $ETH, it’s simply unbearable to watch. Although short-term contracts are also seeing money coming in, if you look carefully at the 24-hour spot side, over 30 million has flowed out, and the long-term 30-day contracts have fled nearly 6.6 billion. Ethereum is like an orphan now; once the market shows some resistance, it will definitely be the one smashed the hardest.
Finally, $SOL, although short-term contract funds are withdrawing, switching to the spot side and looking at the long cycle, there’s a net inflow of over 200 million in 30 days and over 50 million in a week. This indicates that some big players are accumulating long-term holdings to support the bottom. Among these major coins, it’s the most resistant to decline.
In summary, short-term rises are all bait; the long-term declines are the truth. Big money is strategically retreating. Let’s not be cannon fodder, keep fussing less, and sleep peacefully.
It’s already midnight. Are you still guarding your screen tonight? Are you holding BTC, ETH, or SOL?
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 On November 6, SoftBank shares fell by about 10.8%, and the cost of insuring its debt rose to the highest level since 2022, amid concerns about debt and returns on artificial intelligence investments.
Concerns about debt and liquidity support gold
A sharp drop in tech stocks may support gold
Rising dollar and bond yields put pressure on gold
My reading: The news carries more negative risks for stock markets than it does confirmed positive news for gold. There is no direct relationship guaranteeing gold's rise due to SoftBank's results. Originally waiting for $CT to pull back to 0.12 to go long, but it hovered at 0.12597 for eight hours. Every dip was pulled back, but the upward momentum was weak. @大勇干短线（互动）
Such high-level sideways movement in small coins is most likely distribution, not accumulation. Checking the order book, the buy walls are all fragmented orders propping it up, while the sell orders are in large blocks. Reversed to 20x short, exited at 0.12124, 75.09% profit.
Fragmented buy orders propping the price is the most basic bull trap tactic. Shorting has a high cost but the direction is confirmed. Move the stop loss tight to the breakeven line. For those who missed it, patiently wait for a rebound. $BTC $ETH X Layer Ecosystem Weekly Report｜2026.11.02—11.08
From the overall ecosystem performance perspective, DeFi locked value has rebounded somewhat, but DEX trading volume and active users still face pressure, and stablecoin scale has basically stabilized.
Uniswap has proposed an upgrade to the X Layer fee release mechanism.
Although X Layer has already enabled the Uniswap protocol fee mechanism, its underlying architecture has particularities:
X Layer uses OP Stack as the execution framework
Cross-chain assets still use Agglayer
The OP Stack message bridge cannot directly transfer UNI ERC-20 tokens
The original fee release contract was not adapted to Agglayer
Aave and Spark remain core participants in X Layer's lending and yield scenarios, while Uniswap undertakes the main trading liquidity function.
However, currently ecosystem funds are relatively concentrated in a few mature protocols, and the capital scale of emerging projects is still limited.
X Layer has previously launched two rounds of RWA ecosystem liquidity incentives and initiated an RWA ecosystem token trading competition.
Among them, the first round of RWA liquidity incentive plan announced a total scale of up to 5 million USD, followed by a second round of incentives.
The RWA token trading competition launched in September focuses on enhancing the trading activity and liquidity of ecosystem assets $SNDK 🫀 Regarding SanDisk's stock split, I don't think there's a need to be too anxious.
A stock split basically just lowers the unit price, adjusts the holding quantity proportionally, and the total value doesn't disappear out of thin air. After the price drops, the participation threshold is lower, and liquidity might improve.
But what you really should focus on isn't the stock split, but the position size.
SanDisk has dropped from around 1900 to about 800, a nearly 58% decline, with heavy trapped positions above. Currently, long accounts consistently make up about 86%-90%, and the long-short ratio can even reach 6.5-9 times.
So I've been wondering, is 800 really the bottom?
If I were the main force, with so many trapped positions above and a bunch of leveraged longs below, why would I rush to push it up?
I'd first shake out the unsteady longs, accumulate chips at the bottom, then use the low price and liquidity after the stock split to push it up more easily.
Of course, it might also complete the stock split smoothly without scaring itself.
The stock split isn't scary; what you really need to guard against is that 800 might not be the bottom.
With heavy trapped positions above and an imbalanced long-short ratio, without major positive news, a quick V-shaped recovery is difficult in the short term. It looks more like a downward choppy grind, slowly finding the bottom.
For longs that are trapped, I tend to do T trading to reduce cost; stubbornly holding to break even costs too much time.
For now, I see the bottom area around 550-720.
If it can't hold near 750, then this area will likely be tested.
Long term, I still am optimistic about SanDisk, but being optimistic long term and bearish short term are not contradictory.
The worst is using long-term logic to justify short-term trapped positions.
$BTC
Just my personal humble opinion, feel free to chat.Five Heavy Mountains Pressing Down on Bitcoin
These five mountains are not short-term news disturbances; they are structural bearish factors that accumulate and resonate with each other, making them difficult to resolve all at once in the short term. This is the core logic behind the current pressure on BTC's trend:
First Mountain: Irreversible theft, lost assets cannot be recovered
Once a Bitcoin transaction is confirmed on-chain, it cannot be rolled back. Major theft cases on leading platforms have proven that even the industry benchmark BTC, after being hacked, has a large amount of assets that are difficult to freeze, trace, or recover.
Hackers' chips cost almost nothing; as long as the market rebounds, they will gradually liquidate, creating a long-term selling pressure ceiling hanging over the market.
This breaks investors' most basic expectation: even Bitcoin held on top custodial platforms cannot guarantee asset safety, and there is no safety net after incidents occur. This is not a problem with the mainnet's computing power but a permanent pain point caused by the custody system combined with the irreversible transaction mechanism.
Second Mountain: Continuous selling by large institutions, main buyer camp turns into sellers
In the last bull market, institutions, corporate treasuries, and spot ETFs were the core bullish forces.
Now the situation has completely reversed: ETFs continue to have large net redemptions, which must be passively sold into the spot market; benchmark companies and leading funds are gradually reducing or even liquidating their holdings.
Previously, institutions bought on dips and held long-term; now risk controls have tightened, prioritizing reducing crypto asset exposure.
The largest batch of bottom-supporting funds have exited, the main pool of buyers has disappeared, and the market lacks counterparties to absorb large sell orders.
Third Mountain: Large capital short-selling forces continuously suppress the market
Short positions in futures and options markets continue to increase, with professional funds continuously building short positions using multiple bearish logics.
Shorting in a bear market has natural advantages: liquidity thins, support levels weaken, and once selling pressure arrives, it easily triggers long stop losses and cascading liquidations, causing multiple long positions to be wiped out.
Rallies are often treated by short sellers as windows for secondary suppression, with rebound heights continuously capped, making it difficult to form a decent reversal.
Fourth Mountain: AI + quantum future cryptographic risks, valuation logic re-evaluated
Bitcoin’s underlying secp256k1 elliptic curve signature faces theoretical cracking risks against fault-tolerant quantum computers. AI accelerates the development of quantum algorithms and vulnerability detection, causing the market to price in this long-term risk in advance.
The risk cannot be cracked immediately today, but it raises the risk discount rate for holding BTC long-term: institutions no longer assign "digital gold" the same low-risk valuation.
Compared to new quantum-resistant public chains, Bitcoin’s outdated cryptographic system’s weaknesses are increasingly exposed, fracturing the foundation of its long-term narrative.
Fifth Mountain: Collapse of consensus confidence, failure of the digital gold narrative
Bitcoin’s core survival depends on consensus: decentralization, secure value preservation, digital gold.
A series of security thefts, institutional exits, and quantum risk discussions have gradually dismantled this belief.
Retail investors dare not hold large positions, whales continue withdrawing coins and exiting, and funds prioritize shifting to gold and U.S. Treasuries for safety.
Once consensus loosens, the biggest problem is not an immediate crash but the lack of incremental funds willing to enter and support the market. Without new faith capital, all rallies are just downward pauses.
The Core Destructive Force of the Five Mountains Resonating Together
One mountain alone, the market still has opportunities to digest and repair;
Five stacked together form a negative feedback loop:
Confidence collapses → capital withdraws → institutional selling → market weakens → shorts increase profits → security incidents and quantum risks are repriced by the market again, further damaging confidence.
They reinforce each other and do not exist in isolation.
Moreover, none of these five issues can be overturned by short-term positive news:
Stolen chips won’t disappear out of thin air, institutional risk controls won’t reverse overnight, quantum cryptographic risks won’t be quickly resolved, and market confidence recovery cycles are extremely long #إنفيديا aims to achieve a quarterly revenue record of $100 billion 【Breaking｜November 8 Reuters】
NVIDIA plans to invest several billion dollars to support the expansion of ASE's advanced CoWoS packaging capacity, a critical part of the Blackwell GPU unit, as packaging capacity shortage has become a new bottleneck in providing computing power.
Funding disputes: easing long-term delivery pressure, highlighting short-term computing power supply constraints, awaiting consumer price index and NVIDIA earnings reports.$BTC is sideways at 76,000, but the bulls are actually still holding on.
On the 4-hour chart, it dropped from 81,200, touched a low of 74,800, and is now stuck around 76,000, neither up nor down. On the surface, it looks like consolidation, but looking at the data, the fundamentals aren’t looking good.
The long-short ratio is 2.79, with 73.63% of accounts crowded on the long side. The funding rate is only +0.001%, almost at the zero line. To translate: there are many bulls, but the amount they’re willing to pay has dropped to the floor. If the trend were strengthening, the funding rate would rise along with the long-short ratio, creating positive feedback; since the funding rate isn’t rising, it means this wave of bulls is holding on, not attacking.
This combination has a classic name in the market: a breeding ground for a bull trap. When the bottom is truly being tested, the long-short ratio usually drops below 40%. Now, with over 73% crowding, it means those wanting to sell haven’t finished selling, and those wanting to hold are still holding.
The resistance above is first seen at 77,400 (50-EMA). If it can’t break above, there’s no talk of recovery. Below, around 73,300 is the lower Bollinger Band, which is the real battleground for the next round of bulls and bears.
In short: the sideways movement is not stabilization; it’s bulls paying to wait for direction. Let the bullets fly a little longer. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #BTC高位回落，黄金联动受考验 The US dollar, oil prices, and crypto assets are separated by several transmission steps
Geopolitical events do not directly determine BTC price movements; the process involves oil prices, inflation expectations, the US dollar, and interest rates.
Using $BTC as a reference, the price is about $75,810, down 0.25% in 24 hours; OI up 2.0% in 24h, funding rate +0.0072%/8h (CoinGecko perpetual summary). Contract participation is rising, but the funding rate is mildly positive, indicating bulls are present but it’s not yet extremely crowded.
$XRP is about $1.16, down 0.13% in 24 hours; OI down 3.6% in 24h, funding rate +0.0054%/8h (CoinGecko perpetual summary). Price is nearly flat but positions are decreasing; the market is still adjusting direction, so a positive funding rate should not be interpreted as confirmed buying pressure.
BTC OI increased by 2%, XRP OI decreased by 3.6%; the position changes do not show a unified direction.
Breaking down the transmission chain is more reliable than making directional judgments just based on news. Which intermediate variable do you watch first?
#美军扩大对伊朗封锁，霍尔木兹重开仍存分歧 #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% #تقرير RocketLab المالي المتوقع: How is the progress of the Neutron rocket?
Profits are coming too.
Optimistic but realistic that we may reach lower levels.
In my mental model, the current market cap without Neutron generating any revenue until 2028 ranges between 20-30 billion, and this has nothing to do with their finances but with the cost of replacing their technology.#软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ Tough call #软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？
SoftBank's Q2 earnings look impressive, with a net profit of 347.3 billion yen, more than double the market expectation of 166 billion. But looking closer, this money wasn't earned from AI. The real support came from a one-time revaluation gain of Intel's stake, about 1.3 trillion yen, which is non-recurring. The Vision Fund's pre-tax profit was only 5.4 billion yen, a year-on-year plunge of 98.8%.
The most watched OpenAI, SoftBank has cumulatively invested $44.6 billion, with a book value of 89.6 billion, showing a paper gain that looks doubled. But the problem is OpenAI's valuation didn't move this quarter, so profit contribution was zero. SoftBank promises to increase total investment to $64.6 billion, relying on bond issuance and pledging Arm shares for funding. CDS has already soared above 383 basis points; the market is really worried about whether SoftBank can afford to wait, not whether OpenAI is worth the money.
For the crypto circle, SoftBank is a thermometer of AI risk appetite. Its earnings quality thinning indicates the market is repricing "AI spending," and BTC follows risk appetite in the short term. BTC is now around $74,800–75,800, with resistance at 75,000 above and the next support reference at 73,000 below. ETH is near 2,220; first watch if 2,188–2,208 can hold, and if it can't break above 2,350, it will remain volatile Circle Q3 revenue exceeded expectations, USDC on-chain transaction volume increased by 49%, and the rebound in stablecoin capital activity provides sentiment support for payment narrative coins like BCH. However, the current market has not followed the rally. My judgment is weak consolidation, waiting for a breakout. BCH current price is 245.4, down 4.4% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of only 1.719 million, showing a significant shrinkage in volume; the 1-hour and 4-hour moving averages are both trending downward, having fallen 17.69% from the 4-hour high, but only 0.20% above the low. There is support around 243.23, but the top 10 bid-ask ratio is 0.38, indicating heavy selling pressure. The funding rate of -0.0143% shows shorts are paying, and sentiment is bearish. Strategically, if it rebounds near 251.6, a light short position can be tried with a stop loss at 256.8 and a target of 243.7; if it breaks below 242.6 with volume, follow the trend to short with a stop loss at 247.9 and a target of 236.5. Single position size should not exceed 5% of total capital.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$BCH #Moderna Q3 turned profitable, raising full-year revenue growth forecast
#Circle Q3 revenue exceeded expectations, USDC on-chain transaction volume increased by 49%
$BCH The first thing people who steal hundreds of millions do is not to run, but to convert altcoins into Bitcoin.
44 million $XRP were swapped for $BTC through THORChain, while 148 million remain untouched.
Do you think they are bullish on Bitcoin, or do they simply know that when things really go wrong, only Bitcoin is easy to liquidate?
Even more absurd is the coin mixing—they only mixed 88 coins, worth over six million dollars, less than 4% of 175 million, while the rest boldly lie on the chain.
The main BTC and $ETH remain completely still.As of 16:00 on November 7, a stolen fund outflow from Binance sent a clear signal: about 2,300 BTC, equivalent to approximately $175 million, has been transferred to a new address. But what’s more worth pondering is the subsequent move — swapping about 44 million XRP (around $51 million) for BTC via THORChain.
First, let's see what remains. The address still holds about 148 million XRP, valued at roughly $173 million, which could be swapped for another large sum at the same ratio.
Next, let's look at how the traces are handled. About 53 BTC, worth around $4 million, went into Wasabi-like CoinJoin mixing, totaling about 88 BTC, approximately $6.7 million, serving to sever on-chain associations.
This round of operations has three characteristics: cross-chain swaps without going through centralized exchange accounts; swapping for $BTC instead of stablecoins; the hacker’s main BTC and $ETH holdings remain untouched.
So this is not a liquidation but a structural portfolio swap. Converting well-divisible, liquid XRP into the most consensus-strong BTC is equivalent to concentrating assets in the direction easiest to offload.
One detail: the total mixed coins are only 88 BTC, about $6.7 million, less than 4% of the $175 million. If this were a complete laundering, the pace is too slow; it looks more like making a small clean sample first, with the main body holding position, waiting for better prices or safer channels. Macro Game: Who Is Manipulating the AI Act?
The recent AI crisis proposal directly triggered an epic panic sell-off in the US stock market. Many people panicked, but if you look at it from the perspective of political maneuvering, the logic behind this is actually very blatant.
The Democrats are very clever. Their calculation is: rather than waiting for their own people to be in power when the AI crisis breaks out, it's better to trigger this AI bubble during Trump's term.
Why? Because Trump set a very bad precedent. Previously, it was assumed that the rights of American elites could not be exploited, but he almost openly cashed in on it. Since you play that way, your opponents, including his close associates, start to imitate him — you blow up the bubble, and I make money by shorting at the top with my associates.
The recent AI proposals are actually just a detonator. Many proposals won't pass, but it doesn't matter, as long as they create enough panic selling and expectations of collapse.
They have calculated this very clearly: first short to make money, then when the financial crisis breaks out, use the money from shorting to engage in politics, making Trump the Hoover president of this century. When the world is wailing again, they will start a rate-cutting cycle, re-enter the market at a low point with the money earned from shorting, playing the role of savior. $GRASS
Decentralized data infrastructure presents an interesting question for the AI economy: who controls the resources used to collect and organize information? Grass explores a distributed approach to web data collection. Its potential depends on data quality, transparent sourcing, sustainable demand, and the economics of its network. AI-related attention alone cannot establish whether its underlying business model is durable.亏到想退圈的那晚，我反而看清了情绪底长什么样 你有没有发现，最绝望的时候往往不是行情最坏的时候？ 昨晚刷到一条动态，博主说钱没了、感情也散了，只留下一句"等我复活"，配着 BTC、ETH、ZEC 三个代号。说实话我看完心里一紧，不是想笑，是太熟悉那种感觉了——贪婪上头时每次都说"这次能控制住"，结果一次比一次重。 但我想说的不是她，是这条动态背后的信号。 先看事实：这是一条典型的个人爆仓式情绪宣泄，没有具体仓位、没有价格、没有时间点，只有结果。可恰恰是这种"什么都没了"的表达，在加密市场里往往出现在阶段性情绪极值附近。ZEC 这种老币被一起点名，说明她的仓位大概率不是纯 BTC 现货，而是带杠杆、带山寨、带幻想的组合。 市场实际在交易什么？不是她的故事，是"还有多少人和她一样"。当散户情绪从"再冲一次"滑到"算了不玩了"，通常意味着两件事在同时发生：一是高杠杆多头被清得差不多了，二是场外观望的人开始用"别人亏光了"来安慰自己不敢进场。这两种情绪叠在一起，短期抛压会变轻，但接盘意愿也不会立刻回来。 偏多的路径在这里：情绪出清往往先于价格出清。BTC 如果能在这种"没人想聊行情"的氛围里守#Oklo推进核电项目建设，商业化进展受关注 This type of infrastructure narrative is unlikely to provide substantial liquidity to the crypto market in the short term. BTC is still priced based on its own chip structure. My judgment is that the weak consolidation remains unchanged, with discipline prioritized over prediction.
The rebound strength at the 76037.3 level is relatively weak, with the one-hour and four-hour trends both moving downward, respectively -5.76% and -6.98% from the high, and only 0.71% and 0.62% from the low, leaving limited room below. The buy-sell ratio of 6.33 indicates buy orders dominate, the funding rate of 0.0013% is relatively neutral, and the 35,000 contracts open interest shows that the bulls have not collapsed but there is no increase either. The 24-hour slight rise of 0.4% looks more like a halt in the decline rather than a reversal.
In terms of operation, do not chase the rally: if the rebound above 75890 is weak, you can lightly try short positions, stop loss at 76240, target 74980; if it pulls back to 74860 and buy orders clearly support, then go long, stop loss at 74420, target 75610. Single trade risk should not exceed 1.5% of total funds; exit immediately if the position breaks.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you smooth trading. —
$BTC#Oklo推进核电项目建设，商业化进展受关注
#Oklo推进核电项目建设，商业化进展受关注
$BTC An 8.8% rise and a 17% drop mean the same thing in a low-volume market
RSR is now at 0.001686, up 8.84%, pulled from 0.001531 to 0.001691 in 24 hours, basically stuck near the daily high. But its total trading volume for the whole day is only $1.1734 million, with a market cap of 105 million and a turnover rate of 0.11%. This increase is not driven by demand, but because the float is too light.An 8.8% rise and a 17% drop mean the same thing in a low-volume market
RSR is now at 0.001686, up 8.84%, pulled from 0.001531 to 0.001691 in 24 hours, basically stuck near the daily high. But its total trading volume for the whole day is only $1.1734 million, with a market cap of 105 million and a turnover rate of 0.11%. This increase is not driven by demand, but because the float is too light.Every time I watch the market, I feel like the market is gently holding my wrist, and the more I add, the more I lose—this feeling is all too familiar 🫧 Have you ever experienced that as soon as you add to your position, the market turns against you? Reviewing my records over the past half month, it's almost always the same story: seeing a sector strengthen, I can't help but chase in, and as my position grows heavier, the direction immediately reverses. My account's unrealized losses have already reached over a hundred thousand U; it's hard not to feel the pain. But after calming down and reviewing, the problem isn't luck—it's that I misread the rhythm of derivatives. What’s really trading in the market now isn’t the story of a particular coin, but the strength differences between sectors. Positions in strong sectors are piling up, and funding rates are relatively high, indicating crowded longs; meanwhile, weak sectors are losing attention. In this structure, chasing strength actually fuels the squeeze—the price doesn’t need to crash hard, just one quick pullback will liquidate high-leverage longs, then the next phase begins. The more bullish path is: strong sectors first wash out floating positions, holdings decline, funding rates cool down, then reorganize for an upward move—at that point, following in is actually more stable. The risk is that if funding rates don’t retreat and positions keep piling up, any small negative news could trigger a chain liquidation, with altcoins experiencing sharper drawdowns than BTC or ETH, and risk appetite will shrink before recovery can be discussed. My current feeling is: don’t add the last position when the sector is hottest—that’s often where fragility is most concentrated. Wait until sentiment cools and leverage lightens, then the rhythm will be on your side 🌙 The above is just my personal market observation and does not constitute any trading advice. #BTC #ETH #Crypto$ARB
Arbitrum's challenge is no longer simply demonstrating that Ethereum can scale through Layer-2 technology. Competition between scaling networks has become increasingly important. Developer retention, application diversity, transaction economics, and liquidity distribution will help determine its position. A growing ecosystem is encouraging, but network activity must eventually translate into sustainable value rather than relying entirely on incentives.The vast majority of traders clearly know to set stop losses and will write down the stop loss price in advance at the moment of opening a position. But many overlook a fatal problem: a stop loss is not a fixed line; rather, during the holding period, it is gradually softened and relaxed psychologically, changing from a rigid rule to a flexible option. This is why, even though every trade has a stop loss set, large losses still occur in the end. First, distinguish between two types of stop losses. Rigid stop loss: the position is set at the time of opening, with a single condition—exit unconditionally when the price is reached, unaffected by intraday fluctuations or subjective thoughts. Flexible stop loss: there is an initial stop loss when opening the position, but when the market moves unfavorably, the mind begins to self-persuade—let’s wait and see, this support should hold, it’s just a spike, it will quickly recover. Quietly moving the stop loss further away, continuously expanding the tolerable loss, and the bottom line keeps retreating. The birth of flexible stop losses is often not an impulsive moment but a series of self-rationalizing psychological suggestions. When the price first approaches the stop loss level, you tell yourself: the volatility is so large, give a little more tolerance to avoid being stopped out. So you move the stop loss out a bit. The market continues to weaken, unrealized losses further increase, and sunk costs start to take effect. You have already lost some and are unwilling to admit the trade was a mistake, beginning to reject the outcome of “I was wrong” and instead seek every reason to support holding the position: the overall market structure hasn’t changed, the fundamentals of the asset are fine, there was previous support here. In the end, the stop loss becomes nominal only, and the trade turns into a forced hold. The originally planned small, controllable loss evolves into an unresolvable deep trap. ManyI'm focusing on one thing next week: the CPI at 9:30 PM on Tuesday.
The Nasdaq has already pulled back about 11% from its October 6 high and is still in a technical correction. This data is even more awkward—last October's shutdown meant no price data was collected, so the official report doesn't provide year-over-year figures, only month-over-month. The market expects about +0.3%, with the core at +0.2%.
The non-farm payrolls have already heated up: an increase of 165,000, unemployment rate at 4.1%, and about an 80% chance of a rate hike in December. If the CPI comes in hotter again, I'll continue to avoid high-valuation chips. I use the earnings reports from CoreWeave, Cisco, and a few others to see if AI spending is still ongoing, not as a reason to chase gains.
I won't make any moves before the CPI is released.
How about you? Are you staying in cash this week waiting, or have you already adjusted your positions?
This does not constitute investment advice
#AI巨头债券利差飙升：投资风险还是抄底良机 #USStocks #CPI #AIThe opening hour isn't new money. Same money, tighter funnel.
My 30-coin basket: $16.8M at yesterday's tail, $18.4M at the open. 1.09x.
$BTC ate the gap: from 19.5% to 28.9% share; the other 29 lost $0.4M.
$SOL held #6 on 0.94x volume. $NEAR #13, $DOGE #11.
Concentration, not rotation. Waiting: I flip if the basket clears $25M/hour.
SOL's hour: rest or leak?
$SOL $NEAR $DOGE #Solana #OKXOrbit #Crypto #Altcoins
Crypto is high-risk. Personal observation only, not investment advice. DYOR.BTC's movement today is relatively stable. The current price is about $76,000, fluctuating within ±0.1% over 24 hours, with a daily high of 76,245 and a low of 75,571. It has dropped 3.04% over the week, closing basically flat.
Position data better reflects market sentiment: the total network open interest has dropped to $44.2 billion, shrinking 2.07% in 24 hours, with leveraged funds withdrawing; the funding rate is +0.0073% (CoinGlass open interest weighted at 0.0087%), in a neutral range, with both bulls and bears reluctant to add positions. Binance shows 49% of accounts are long, retail longs and shorts are nearly equal; however, top traders on Hyperliquid are 94% short, with nominal short positions increasing by about $2.15 billion and longs decreasing by about $734 million, indicating a clear bearish bias among leading funds. ETF single-day net outflow is $412 million, with no inflow from institutional funds.
It is likely to continue oscillating narrowly between 75,571 and 76,245, with reduced volume and crowded short positions, making it prone to a dip followed by a rebound. A break below 75,571 points to the next target at 74,888; only a move above 76,245 would suggest a rebound. Avoid chasing orders or betting on direction; weekend liquidity is thin, and volatility can expand at any time. #BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 Political meme, this trend really pushed emotional pricing to the extreme this year.
$TRUMP came back to life riding the election cycle narrative. Among people I know, some used it to break even, while others got stuck at the peak.
$WLFI is the coin issued by the Trump family's DeFi project. The hype is real, but the more I look, the more it feels like the old "celebrity coin" routine, with liquidity shockingly shallow.
As for $DOGE, it twitches every time Musk tweets; holding it long-term is like raising a neurotic cat.
But for these kinds of coins, I only allocate up to 5% of my portfolio as a lottery ticket—happy if it rises, and no big deal if it goes to zero. When the celebrity halo fades and the narrative ebbs, how many candlesticks can that "political faith" in your hands really hold up?