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On November 6, the U.S. Treasury Department named eight Canadian OTC exchanges, including Nia Nations (NNCE) and Million Exchange (MillionEX). The most interesting part is not the sanctions themselves, but the timeline — five months ago, ZachXBT suggested taking action against the abuse of Iranian OTC brokers, and it has only now come to fruition.
What is OTC? It leaves no trace on the blockchain and is the final hidden channel for fiat currency inflows and outflows. Large currency exchanges, over-the-counter bulk trades, and cross-border money transfers all go through here. Sanctioning these eight is equivalent to sealing off this hidden channel, rather than targeting a few specific individuals.
Looking at ZachXBT’s reasoning: Canada has low legal enforcement efficiency globally, leading to widespread abuse. The subtext is — regulation doesn’t just look at where you are registered, but whether you actually allow transactions. The leniency dividend of registration location is being revoked item by item.
The market impact is a slow variable. In the short term, no one will sell $BTC just because eight Canadian OTCs are sanctioned, but it will raise the compliance costs of all OTC channels, with friction ultimately borne on every large inflow and outflow. The OTC liquidity of $ETH and stablecoins is most sensitive to this friction.
What’s truly worth considering is: when hidden channels are blocked one by one, will funds seek the next, more obscure hidden channel, or simply return to licensed, transparent channels? The former means regulation is always chasing, the latter means the "permissionless" narrative of crypto needs to be revalued.Brothers, the big coin's funding sentiment is very unified, no so many twists and turns. The chip structure is quite stable with no obvious mismatches.
But what does this ETH mean? The bullish positions are as high as 62%, the long positions are extremely crowded, but the 24-hour trading shows bearish volume has overtaken to 54%. Long-term heavy longs, but short-term funds are frantically defending against a drop. What kind of operation is this mismatch?
#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 今早链上资金流数据给出一个刺眼信号：超过7亿美元的杠杆仓位在24小时内集体撤离，而现货端的接盘力量几乎为零。这不是换手，是退场。💸 先看合约端。$BTC 合约净流出5.69亿美元，$ETH 净流出1.14亿美元，$SOL 净流出2538万美元，三大主力同步减仓，没有一个逆势加码。杠杆资金向来是行情的放大器，如今放大器被拆走，市场剩下的只是裸泳的现货结构。 现货端更值得警惕。$BTC 现货净流入仅270万美元，$ETH 约227万美元——这点量级在平日连一笔大额转账都算不上。而$SOL 现货继续净流出1072万美元，说明持有者仍在离场而非补仓。没有新资金进场，抄底力量薄如纸，任何反弹都缺乏承接基础。 成交量印证了同一逻辑：全网交易量单日骤降56.7%，萎缩至1416亿美元。缩量之下，市场很难组织起有力反转，更容易演变成诱多陷阱——拉一波，然后被卖盘吞掉。 但有一个例外值得单独拎出来：$ZEC。合约净流入1238万美元，现货净流入1918万美元，双向吸筹。当所有人夺路而逃时，它独自接钱，这种逆势资金行为在弱势市场里极为罕见，值得放进观察名单。 期权端则透出矛盾心理。$BTC 看涨期权交易The $IREN contract has been signed, so why is the launch still a key variable?
IREN disclosed $200 million in quarterly AI cloud revenue and adjusted part of the launch schedule. Data center power supply, equipment arrival, and customer acceptance determine when billing starts, with capital expenditures possibly leading. If production starts according to the new milestones and prepayments cover the investment, execution risk decreases. If delivery is delayed again, the annualized contract figures will require a larger discount.Many people think Solana mining tokens are just a change in narrative with similar costs, but that's completely not the case.
Ordinary SPL tokens rely on the official built-in Token Program, with very low on-chain costs. Many can complete the launch process with less than 1 SOL, and some don't even require an audit.
However, Solana mining tokens, although the tokens themselves are also SPL, require additional deployment of mining contracts, audits to prevent coin farming, and long-term tasks like running computing power statistics, connecting to mining pools, and maintaining miner dashboards. Overall, whether it's a one-time investment or long-term operation, the expenses are much higher than ordinary Meme.
The mining token narrative looks attractive, but the capital threshold and technical risks are on a whole different level.
$SOL After reading, I noted three things. As someone who loves checklists, what I fear most is drawing the same conclusion from several different statuses.
1. According to PANews on November 8, the official website of JD.com's JD Coin Chain is currently inaccessible. The exact time of going offline is unknown, but Qichacha still shows the company as "still registered." My judgment is that this will weaken external confidence in the project's progress but is not enough to prove that the business has been terminated. The website status and company status are recorded in separate columns.
2. JD previously planned to issue a stablecoin pegged 1:1 to the Hong Kong dollar. JD Coin Chain entered the Hong Kong Monetary Authority sandbox in July 2024 but did not receive the first batch of licenses in April this year. The licenses were granted to Anchor Financial led by Standard Chartered and HSBC. I think this news should cool down the expectation that "big companies entering the market can quickly launch products": the sandbox is a testing phase and cannot be directly regarded as proof of approved issuance.
3. For ordinary users, I care more about whether there will be clear service explanations later rather than guessing reasons for the official website malfunction. If the official side continues to lack verifiable information, it will be even harder for users to judge which stage the project is at. This is my speculation and also shows that transparency itself affects trust.
I will record this as a project expectation adjustment rather than a negative for the entire stablecoin sector; what would you add as a fourth point, for example, judging that the project is still progressing, what verifiable evidence is most needed?$BTC daily chart shows a large bearish candle dropping near 75,000, with a total liquidation of 1.23 billion across the network, the long-short ratio still hanging at 3.02, but the funding rate has decreased. The ETF saw a single-day outflow of 430 million, with nearly 1.3 billion withdrawn cumulatively in November; the price is holding firm, but the money is leaving.
$ETH's dilemma is even more typical. 45.2 million tokens are staked, with 1.37 million queued to enter, waiting 24 days, yet the ETF had a net outflow of over 1.2 billion in October, and ETH/BTC is clinging to a three-month low of 0.029. The stakers and the withdrawers are two groups telling different stories with different money.
There is also new news: Solana made a high-profile ad push in Shanghai, which was directly stopped by the central bank, and the involved entities are under investigation.
Today, 100 stocks hit the daily limit in the A-share market, with a turnover of 1.78 trillion. AI manga dramas are booming in batches of 20CM, but banks and coal are the only two sectors closing in the red against the trend. Broad-based ETFs released 129.5 billion, flowing into indices rather than individual stocks, rotating as fast as a fan.
The US Nasdaq has fallen nearly 12% from its high, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index crashed over 12% in a single day, chip stocks bounced slightly on Friday, but Tuesday's CPI month-over-month expectation was 0.3%, with nearly 80% betting on a rate hike in December. CoreWeave's earnings report is coming soon.Withdrawal resumption ≠ buying pressure return, don't mistake channel reopening as a bottom-fishing signal.
Binance has resumed withdrawals for HYPE and APT. Previously, it phased the resumption of stablecoins on the Ethereum network such as RLUSD, USD1, TUSD, FDUSD, XUSD, as well as tokens like ENA, USDE, PENDLE, WLD, LINK, ONDO, ETHFI; and assets on the Solana network including USD1, FDUSD, PUMP, TRUMP, JUP, BONK, WIF, RENDER. The official statement says that as security checks complete, more assets and networks will continue to be resumed in phases.
The judgment leans positive, reflecting sentiment recovery. Withdrawal resumption means the previously paused risk control security inspections are concluding in stages, users regain liquidity, and panic discounts and OTC selling pressure ease. Locked selling pressure on HYPE and APT can be normally released, short-term liquidity and sentiment are somewhat positive, but this only restores the cash-out channel, not new buying demand.
Phased resumption indicates security audits are not fully complete; assets not yet resumed may still face liquidation restrictions. Don't treat withdrawal resumption as a bottom-fishing signal; focus on official subsequent lists and whether large concentrated transfers to exchanges appear on-chain.
Source: PANews
Are you more concerned about the next batch of resumed assets or large on-chain transfers?Strong non-farm payrolls combined with ETF outflows, how much momentum does BTC's rebound still have?
The US added 165,000 non-farm jobs in October, far exceeding the expected 65,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. The resilience of the labor market surpassed expectations, pushing market bets on a Fed rate hike in December to 78%. The US dollar index rose about 0.7%, and US Treasury yields increased in tandem. The previously anticipated easing trades are now facing a repricing.
What is truly concerning, beyond macro pressures, is that institutional funds are also retreating. Last week, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $1.28 billion, marking the largest weekly outflow since the end of June, with the year-to-date net flow turning into a net outflow of approximately $914 million. ETH ETFs have also recorded net outflows for six consecutive weeks, showing a clear weakening in capital absorption capacity.
This means BTC is currently facing not only interest rate pressure but also a shortage of incremental funds. Short-term rebounds can come from short covering, but to form a trend reversal, spot buying and ETF funds need to re-enter the market.
Going forward, focus on inflation data, the US dollar, and US Treasury yield changes. A macro bearish bias does not mean prices can only fall, but before capital returns, it is unwise to easily define the rebound as a bull market restart. Control your positions and wait for the market to give confirmation signals. $BTC #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Single-week BTC+ETH spot ETF net outflow exceeds $1.6 billion; are institutions really fleeing this time?
Looking at the data: Bitcoin ETF weekly outflow is $1.28 billion, Ethereum $365 million, and IBIT alone had a $400 million outflow on Friday.
BTC has turned negative cumulatively this year, and ETH has been bleeding for six consecutive weeks. Prices have also fallen back to around $75,000-$76,000. Retail investors are still waiting for a rebound, but institutional funds continue to flow out, a divergence that warrants caution.
But don’t just look at the surface. ETF outflows do not equal institutions being completely bearish. Often, it’s profit-taking, position rebalancing, or opportunity cost considerations under the macro interest rate environment for non-yielding assets. ETH ETFs have no staking yield, making them less attractive when U.S. Treasury yields are high. Funds leaving the ETF channel do not mean they are leaving the crypto market entirely.
For short-term traders: during such continuous outflow phases, chasing longs is easy to get shaken out, and false breakout probability increases. Focus on the price’s support strength at key levels (such as around $75,000) and whether daily ETF fund flows show clear convergence or turn positive. When volatility amplifies, using stop-losses and position control is more important than betting on direction.
For mid-to-long term: cumulative net inflows remain the bigger picture, and this week’s outflow accounts for a limited proportion of historical cumulative flows. Institutional demand indicators turning negative this year is a phase of cooling off or a trend change that requires confirmation from data in the coming weeks. Don’t treat extreme single-week data as a direct signal of market reversal.$BTC dropped to 75,700, with liquidations exceeding 1 billion, long positions dominating, yet the funding rate stubbornly refused to turn negative; what’s being shaken out is leverage, not faith. ETFs saw a net outflow of 1.28 billion in November, cumulatively turning negative for the year, with rebounds lacking institutional support.
$ETH is even more conflicted, with staking queues dropping from 3.73 million coins six months ago to 1.03 million now; ETFs had a 270 million outflow in one week, with stakers and withdrawers each telling their own story.
In the A-share market, a hundred stocks hit the daily limit, with turnover at 1.78 trillion; banks and coal were the only sectors closing in the red against the trend. Broad-based ETFs saw inflows of 129.5 billion, flowing into indices rather than individual stocks, rotating as fast as a fan.
On Thursday, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was bloodied with a 12.2% drop, then bounced back 4.2% on Friday, but the Nasdaq still fell 3.4% for the week, marking four consecutive weeks of decline. Tuesday’s CPI month-on-month was expected at 0.3%, with December rate hike bets pushed close to 80%, and even a slight chip miss got hammered.
All three markets are stubbornly holding up amid divergence; whoever breaks first will be the first to clear out.The weekend data looks quite interesting. Let's first look at BTC: in the past 24 hours, there was a net capital inflow of 595.75 BTC. Although this is a drop of more than 50% compared to the inflow scale of the previous day, it represents a 428.18% increase compared to seven days ago, indicating that the capital foundation is still there. During the same period, the liquidation amount was only $4.355 million, with a total of 605 liquidation orders. Compared to both the previous day and a week aIs the whole network shorting while I'm the only one going long?
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温
On Hyperliquid, whale BTC short positions have piled up to the highest level since October 2025, with net shorts nearly double the longs; spot ETFs continue to see large outflows, macro selling pressure remains, and on the surface, there seems to be no reason to go long.
But I believe:
73K is a relatively stable structural support in this round. 75K is the first line of defense; if it breaks short-term, it may quickly dip near 74K, but buying interest below 73K still exists, so a one-sided bearish view is not advisable.
The basis is:
Current shorts are more of an active layout rather than extreme crowding, and funding rates are not yet extreme;
Once the price stops falling in the 73K-75K range and climbs back above 76K, shorts are likely to trigger a chain of liquidations, causing a short-term sharp rise. ETF outflows and macro pressure are real, but the contract-side squeeze elasticity should not be ignored.
In terms of operation, I personally prefer to lightly and gradually go long in the 74K-73.2K range, with a strict stop loss below 72.8K; aggressive traders can lightly go long near 75K;
If it effectively breaks below 73K with volume, the short logic strengthens and exit decisively; if it holds and breaks above 76K with volume, then look for a short squeeze rally targeting 77.5K-78.5K $BTC $ETH Brothers, the wolf is really coming, and the blade might be faster than expected!
The Wall Street Journal revealed that the famous "number one nemesis of cryptocurrency" Elizabeth Warren is expected to take over as chair of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee as early as January 2027.
This position holds immense power, essentially controlling the lifeblood of the financial world. Previously, Warren could only pressure through letters, and whether the other side responded was up to their mood; once she sits in the chair, she will have subpoena power, able to compel executives to testify and obtain documents. This regulatory scythe might swing down at any moment.
Warren has always been extremely tough on cryptocurrency and has frequently challenged it in the past. She publicly opposed the CLARITY Act, stating, "We need crypto regulation, but it can't be legislation written by the crypto industry itself." Her upcoming investigation list will likely include: crypto consumer protection, insider trading in prediction markets, and conflicts of interest in the Trump family's crypto businesses (such as World Liberty Financial).
Some analysts poured cold water on this: Warren's legislative power is limited by the Senate's 60-vote threshold, making hardcore proposals difficult to pass directly into law; the chairs of the SEC and CFTC remain in Republican hands, so administrative crypto policies won't flip overnight. But just the intensive hearings and investigations will be enough to give exchanges and blockchain companies a hard time.
Times are definitely tough, but how deeply the "wolf" can bite still depends on the tug-of-war among the folks on Capitol Hill. $BTC $ETH $SOL An easily overlooked comparison: As of September 23, Solana has averaged about 95.92 million transactions per week this year; Nasdaq, NYSE, ARCA, BATS, and NYSE American combined average about 657 million transactions per week during the same period. The former is about 15% of the latter.
15% is not impressive, but this is comparing a single public blockchain to the entire major US stock trading venues.
More importantly, the statistical criteria. This only compares the number of transactions, excluding trading volume and individual transaction size. So this 15% reflects not the amount of capital, but the number of times it is used. A single US stock trade is often a large institutional order, while a Solana transaction might just be someone swapping a few dollars worth of tokens or claiming an airdrop.
The mechanism lies here. The value of $SOL is not in how large each transaction is, but in how many actions it can support per unit of time—high frequency, small amounts, automation. This is its ecological niche completely different from traditional exchanges.
My judgment is: the real significance of this comparison is that it provides a traditional financial frame of reference for valuing public blockchains. On-chain activity has grown large enough to be placed on the same chart as mature markets, even if they are not compared on the same dimension. $ETH was compared to Visa back in the day in the same way; the frame of reference is more valuable than the absolute value.
One point worth considering: if we compare by transaction amount instead, how much would this 15% shrink? The answer might be much less flattering, but that is where the money speaks.Although the non-farm payrolls increased market pressure for rate hikes, there’s no time to be sad, friends, because a wave of inflation data is coming 😵 Whether it’s the CPI on November 10 or the PPI on the 13th, the market currently expects increases, making a December rate hike a high-probability event. If that happens, it will be even harder for the Fed to easily pivot to easing. Crypto has already benefited from the market’s pricing of risk assets under rate cut expectations, so if the interest rate path adjusts further, it’s hard not to feel anxious.
That’s all. The importance of next week’s CPI is no less than this week’s non-farm payrolls. Hopefully, we won’t see another major crash. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $PLTR How to verify the replicability of new customer growth in software?
Palantir's U.S. commercial revenue in Q3 grew 148% year-over-year. The quality of expansion depends on whether similar deployments can shorten delivery times and reduce reliance on on-site personnel. If cash collections keep pace and the proportion of delivery costs decreases, the replicability of growth is stronger. If orders require continuous increased customization investment, the profit content of high growth needs to be reassessed.判断稳定币是不是真的用得更多，你会先看有多少钱留在链上，还是链上累计转手了多少钱？Circle 最新财报里，这两个数字的增速差得挺远。 Circle 在 11 月 4 日公布的财报显示，第三季度 USDC 链上交易额达 13.9 万亿美元，同比增长 49%。同期平均流通量是 733 亿美元，同比增长 8%。到了季末，流通量约 739 亿美元，和上年同期基本持平。链上交易额是一个季度累计转了多少钱，流通量看的是某个时点或一段时间里有多少 USDC 在外流通。同一笔钱来回转几次，每笔转账都可能计入交易额，余额却可以没怎么变。 再看 Circle 自己赚的钱。季度总营收及储备收入为 8.65 亿美元，同比增长 17%，但其中的储备收入约 6.58 亿美元，同比下降 8%。公司解释，储备回报率同比下降了 0.61 个百分点，平均流通量增加只抵消了部分影响。同一季度，其他收入还包含 1.82 亿美元的 ARC 代币预售收入。所以公司这一季收入为什么增加，得看各项收入分别来自哪里。 我的判断是，USDC 的链上流转确实更活跃，但要看使用场景有没有扩大，我会同时跟踪流通余额和支付用途。Visa 的统Today (November 8, 2026), the four markets did not move in the same direction but were torn apart by the same macro theme: after the US midterm elections concluded, expectations of escalating geopolitical conflicts quickly faded. This theme simultaneously drove an epic crash in crude oil, a speculative sell-off in gold, and a narrow tug-of-war for Bitcoin amid "extreme fear." The stock market, however, showed a completely different logic—local overheating of A-share stocks with consecutive daily limit-ups diverging severely from fundamentals. --- 🛢️ Crude Oil: Plunged over 16% in one week, the largest weekly drop since 2020 This is the most intense anomaly today. The Brent crude oil front-month contract fell a cumulative 16.42% over the week, and the WTI front-month contract dropped 12.76%, both marking the largest weekly declines since 2020. On November 7 intraday, New York crude briefly fell below $90 per barrel. The core driver of the crash was a concentrated sell-off by hedge funds. After analyzing CFTC position data, Goldman Sachs' FICC team found that from October 27 to November 3, managed money net sold Brent crude oil positions totaling $6.6 billion, marking the seventh time in five years that weekly sales exceeded $6 billion. The trigger for the sell-off was the market's rapid shift from "rushing to price in war escalation" to "rushing to price in war ending" after the Democrats swept Congress—reports indicated Trump favored negotiation over military strikes, Iran's Supreme Leader authorized the president to engage in dialogue, and Qatar-mediated calls were continuously made. Long positions betting on a supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz were forced to liquidate massively, creating a chain reaction of negative feedback. However, the supply side is not亏光不是最可怕的，把"重仓赌一波"误当成"行情快来了"才是 🫧 你有没有过那种时刻：明明只是波动放大，却觉得必须马上做点什么？ 昨晚看到那条动态，心里咯噔了一下。钱没了，感情也散了，最后说要去送外卖、等翻身。我不想消费别人的难处，但它像一面镜子，照出一个很常见的误判：把波动阶段当成趋势起点，然后不自觉把仓位越加越重。$BTC $ETH $ZEC 我自己的观察是，最近这种拉扯感特别明显。大饼上下扫，山寨偶尔冒头又迅速熄火，ZEC 这类老币冷不丁被拎出来讲两句故事。表面看是热点轮动，实际更像波动率被反复挤压后的情绪消耗。很多人以为"波动大等于机会多"，但波动阶段真正考验的不是方向判断，而是节奏和仓位纪律。方向看对、节奏踩错，照样被扫出去。 传导路径其实不复杂。新闻催化先点燃情绪，短线资金涌入，价格快速脉冲，然后获利盘和止损盘互相踩踏，波动被进一步放大。这时候 BTC 的走势决定风险偏好能不能稳住，ETH 跟着看资金愿不愿意承担久期，山寨则负责放大贪婪和恐惧。一旦大饼收回涨幅，山寨的反弹往往最先失效，追高的人被留在原地。 偏多的路径也存在：如果波动之后成交量能跟上，BTC 站稳关键区间，ESanDisk: 6x PE, the market is discounting the "cycle length"
Current price $835, TTM PE about 6.1x, analyst consensus target price $2047. The disagreement is not about the authenticity of earnings, but how long the earnings can be sustained. NBM's long-term contract guaranteed revenue is $93.9 billion, with an average term over 4 years, and about 50% of bits locked for FY2027, which indeed improves visibility; however, SanDisk's NAND market share is only 11.7%, ranking sixth, with pricing power still held by Samsung and SK Hynix. Long-term contracts can lock in their own volume but cannot lock in the entire industry's supply discipline. If the leaders loosen contract prices, SanDisk can only maintain volume, not valuation multiples. The November 20 stock split only lowers the entry threshold, not the logic. Monitor NBM's new contract signings and contract price divergence. $PONS Bearish news: The buyback budget dropped from about 18.7 million to about 2 million in one month
Current price 0.1657 USDT, down 13.52% in 24 hours, volume about 3.48 million, lowest seen at 0.1644
According to DefiLlama data verified by Coindoo today, Pons Launchpad's fees were $137.1 million in September, but only $16.8 million in October, a decrease of 87.8%. Protocol revenue dropped from 23.4 million to 2.5 million
According to the EU white paper, the platform keeps 30% of the fees, 80% of which is used to buy back and burn PONS. Using the same calculation, about 18.7 million was used for buybacks in September, but only about 2 million in October
Galaxy Research's daily fee chart on November 6 also shows a drop from about 11.4 million on September 5 to about 250,000 in early November, with market cap falling from over 600 million to about 120 million. The only channel for holders to receive platform income has been almost completely drained.ETF withdrew $1.28 billion in one week! All inflows this year have been lost, are institutions the least faithful?
Really, stop blindly believing in institutional long-termism. The BTC spot ETF had a net outflow of $1.28 billion last week, wiping out all net inflows since 2026 and turning it into a net outflow for the year.
This happened in just one week. At the beginning of the month, there were still positive inflows of over a billion, but now they're gone. This is the worst single-week performance since the end of June. Just BlackRock's IBIT alone ran off with more than $400 million on Friday, accounting for over 80% of that day's outflows. Even the most stable leading institutions are rushing to exit. $ETH
Frankly, it's not surprising. The non-farm payroll data exploded, December rate hike expectations were fully priced in, and with the midterm election results settled, funds that had bet on regulatory easing cashed out and fled. Institutions are a hundred times more pragmatic than retail investors; they take profits when they can and exit faster than anyone when bad news hits, without any talk of long-term faith.
No wonder the market has been soft like cotton lately, with every rally lacking follow-through. This rally was originally driven by incremental ETF funds, but now the inflows have turned into outflows. With no one injecting fresh capital, the price naturally can't rise.
Don't listen to nonsense about a strong bottom or bottom-fishing. As long as ETF fund flows don't turn around, all support is paper-thin. Wait until there are consecutive net inflows again before talking about stabilization.#RocketLab financial report ahead: How is the progress of the Neutron rocket? Bitcoin has fallen exactly like the Nasdaq, so where are the buyers when it rises?
On November 5th, three numbers lined up: Nasdaq -5.52%, Bitcoin -5.49%, Ethereum -7.70%. Same day, same direction, almost the same magnitude.
Many still treat it as an independent asset, but its current pricing is based on a single variable: "global risk appetite." The reason is simple — the money buying Bitcoin and the money buying Nasdaq come from the same group, flowing through the same channel: spot ETFs. This week, this channel saw a net outflow of $1.28 billion, and cumulatively for 2026, it has already turned into a net outflow.
What’s even more interesting is the reverse: the next trading day, Nasdaq rebounded 1.09%, while Bitcoin barely moved. When falling, they move in lockstep; when rising, Bitcoin’s buyers are absent.
So don’t ask "Is Bitcoin a safe-haven asset?" Instead, ask "How many Nasdaq-style crashes can your position withstand?"
Is your position allocated for defense or offense? Share your thoughts in the comments.
BTC #Nasdaq #ETFFlows #MarketAnalysis现在我很慌，这个周末，市场安静地过分了，太像暴风雨来临前的宁静了。 明天早上，韩股就要开盘了，一旦海力士的表现不佳，恐怕$SNDK 会暴跌。 到时候，$NVDA 很有可能被拖下水，一旦发生这种情况，美股就炸了。 美股炸了，世界都不好过。 加密也不例外，$ETH 更是不例外。 这么一讲，明天海力士的表现就至关重要，一旦表现不好，全球可能就要开始集体暴跌了。 —————————————————— 现在我内心其实有一个顾虑，就是加密提前开始跌。 在我记忆里，之前是有这种情况的。 说实话，现在$ETH 的合约数据其实还可以，多空比和持仓量都挺高，说明现在还是有不少人看多的。 但是，加密行情不完全由自己决定，尤其是现在这种情况，加密的行情就系于美股了。 现在，最好的策略就是空仓，然后等明天海力士的表现。 这是比较稳妥的办法。 —————————————————— 我现在是在空。 因为我分析了之前的趋势，周末晚上是有可能暴跌的。 我想搏一搏。 而且，我现在不认为明天海力士表现会好，所以做空大概是不亏的。 我认为，现在做空，大概率不亏，有概率爆赚，小概率爆亏。 这种情况，我认为对于我来说是值得冒险的Every time I see "Hong Kong is going to issue crypto licenses," my first reaction is: Here we go again? After the last round of licenses were issued, the market didn't really react; if it was going to drop, it dropped.
But this time the situation is a bit different. Trading, custody, consulting, and management—all four require licenses. Before, they only focused on exchanges; now even "helping you store coins" and "giving you advice" are included.
To put it bluntly, Hong Kong is regulating crypto as a financial industry, not as a tech product. It sounds serious, but in reality, the threshold is higher and fewer people can get in.
For ordinary holders, there probably won't be much impact in the short term; $BTC will still fluctuate as usual. Just remember to ask first when looking for a place to store your coins: Do you have a license?Hong Kong has made it clear this time: by the end of the year, it will submit a crypto bill requiring four types of licenses for trading, custody, advisory, and management businesses respectively.
First, let's look at what it breaks down. In recent years, the most ambiguous regulatory area worldwide has been "custody"—who holds the coins, and who is responsible if something goes wrong has never been clearly defined. This time, custody is singled out for a separate license, which acknowledges one thing: the core that truly needs regulation in the crypto industry is not trading but asset custody. Trading, advisory, and management are independent, indicating that Hong Kong does not intend to use one big license to cover everyone but rather stratifies by risk.
From a mechanism perspective, the consequence of layered licensing is a change in the cost structure. Trading platforms bear the heaviest compliance costs, advisory and management are much lighter, and custody is in the middle but has the highest capital and audit requirements. This will lead to an expected differentiation: licensed institutions handle custody and distribution, unlicensed ones handle traffic entry, and the middle layer gets squeezed.
For mainstream assets like $BTC, the significance lies on the demand side. Once compliant custody is established, the last procedural barrier for institutions entering the market is removed—not because the bill makes the coins more valuable, but because internal control clauses of funds, insurance, and family offices can finally be approved.
One point worth considering: among the four licenses, the most expensive is not trading but custody. Whoever is willing to pay this cost will control the next round of capital inflow. And this cost is unaffordable for small platforms. Berkshire's financial report has been released, and this time I'm more interested in the money it spent.
In the third quarter, the company repurchased about $9.6 billion in stock, more than double the approximately $4.5 billion in the second quarter. Meanwhile, quarterly operating profit was about $12.7 billion, down 5.8% year-over-year. Putting these two facts together is more interesting than just focusing on the cash balance alone: operating performance is under pressure, yet management was still willing to buy back its own shares at the prices at that time.
Of course, buybacks only reflect capital allocation choices during that period; they don't allow us to judge today's price, nor do they guarantee an immediate stock price increase. But at least it is an action that has already occurred and can be verified by the amount.
Whenever the market sees Berkshire's large cash reserves, it likes to write a line saying "waiting for a crash." I think this explanation is too simplistic. The company needs to retain funds to meet insurance and operational needs, while also weighing the attractiveness between external acquisitions, securities investments, and buybacks. The answer is not necessarily just one.
This financial report reminds me that patience and using funds can happen simultaneously. There's no need to force money out just because you can't find a particularly satisfying opportunity at the moment; and when you do encounter an acceptable price, you don't have to wait for all news to improve.
Rather than guessing when it will make a big bottom-fishing move, I prefer to observe the next few quarters: whether buybacks will continue, whether operating profits can improve, and where the funds ultimately go.
#伯克希尔巨额现金储备，财报将披露最新动向 What was stopped: an offline event or the entire onshore promotion narrative?
Around November 6, the Financial Times published a response from a central bank department head: it was monitored that domestic entities displayed Solana branding on the exterior walls of the Citigroup Tower in Lujiazui, Shanghai, which was classified as virtual currency marketing. The People's Bank of China, together with local financial, public security, and market regulatory departments, stopped the "Solana Accelerate China 2026" offline event before it started and will investigate the related organizations and individuals. The official stance is that SOL "is essentially a virtual currency" and also provides technical services for the issuance and trading of USDT and others; according to a February notification from eight departments this year, such promotion is already in violation.
So far, no names, no penalty lists, and no timetable have been released. Foundation President Lily Liu explained around October 16 that the postponement was due to registrations increasing about fourfold overnight, exceeding the venue capacity already filed, and needing to comply with local requirements—both explanations can coexist and do not contradict each other.
This is not a "comprehensive ban on SOL in China," nor an upgrade to a trading ban; it is more like a sample of the boundaries for onshore promotion.
Why it matters: this time provides a verifiable on-site reference point for what overseas public chains can and cannot say onshore.
Confidence level: medium | official media relay, no penalty results yet. Will you focus more on the investigation list later or on whether the foundation has new statements? $SOL Only veterans in the crypto circle know the truth
Actually, the Democratic Party coming to power is a huge positive for crypto
How much liquidity did Trump drain from the crypto circle when he was in office
The Bitcoin ETF was approved during the Democratic Party's tenure
The Democratic Party does not ban crypto, but wants regulation
Trump seemed to support cryptocurrencies, but in reality, he was greedily making money, completely harming the industry!#美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4%
The weekly decline is 3.4%, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunging 12% in a single day before quickly rebounding. Many are debating whether this is a "technical dip," but from an institutional perspective, this is far from a simple emotional release; it is a repricing after the AI narrative has entered the "accounting period."
Sharing three core judgments:
1. The essence of the plunge: from "buying dreams" to "looking at financial reports." The market's concerns about AI data center regulation and the return on massive capital expenditures (Capex) are heating up. In the past two years, any association with AI could boost valuations, but now institutions are doing the math: major companies have spent hundreds of billions on GPUs, so when will this translate into profits? Once ROI (return on investment) is disproven, high valuations are just castles in the air.
2. Why the rebound is so fast? Because of "short covering" plus "denominator-side" games. The rally in Nvidia and AMD is largely due to the previous sharp drop, where some hedge funds hit their "stop-loss" lines and were forced to liquidate, combined with technical buying after overselling. Additionally, if subsequent macro data weakens and rate cut expectations reignite, it is positive for the valuation denominator of tech stocks (long-duration assets).
3. Divergence is the main theme going forward. The Nasdaq has rebounded, but the Dow Jones still closed down. This means funds have not fully returned to risk assets but are switching between "weeding out falsehoods within tech" and "defending traditional value sectors."
Conclusion: Don't mistake a single-day rebound for a reversal. $QQQ $BTC dropped to 75,700, with over 1 billion liquidated in 24 hours, longs making up the majority. But the funding rate stubbornly didn’t turn negative, and Binance’s long-short ratio even rose to 2.16; what’s buried is leverage, not positions. The real drag is the ETF, which net ran off 1.28 billion in November, cumulatively turning negative for the year, with no one catching the rebound.
$ETH is the most conflicted. Total staked is 45.2 million, with 1.37 million queued to enter, waiting 24 days, yet the ETF ran off over 1.2 billion in October, and ETH/BTC is clinging to a three-month low. Those locking coins and those withdrawing funds each tell their own story.
China A-shares saw 100 stocks hit daily limit up, with turnover of 1.78 trillion, looking lively. But banks and coal are the only two sectors closing in the red against the trend; money is only flowing into AI manga dramas and baijiu, with broad-based ETFs seeing 129.5 billion inflows, going into indices, not individual stocks.
US stocks lost 4 trillion in a week; chip stocks rebounded on Friday but the Nasdaq still fell for the whole week. Tuesday’s CPI was the real knife, with December rate hike bets pushed close to 80%.
All three markets are stubbornly holding on amid divergence. Many people yearn to follow Bitcoin's old path: writing a whitepaper, open-sourcing the code, zero pre-mining, no fundraising, and building a public chain from scratch.
Technically, this process is still feasible today, but the era is completely different. Back then, the field was blank, regulations were loose, and home computers could participate in mining; now, computing power is highly concentrated, regulations are tightening, and launching a new PoW chain from cold start is extremely difficult and prone to 51% hash rate attacks.
The code can be copied exactly, but the consensus, liquidity, and first-mover advantages accumulated over more than a decade cannot be replicated. Even if successfully launched, most can only remain niche experiments and it is hard to replicate Bitcoin's legendary success.
$BTC When I saw this message, the first thing that came to mind was budgeting for starting a company: just because the business scope is expanded doesn't mean the cash flow is stable. The same goes for trading; input and output must be calculated, and risk reserves cannot be skimped on.
The rules finalized by the Russian Central Bank will take effect on November 17: non-qualified investors can purchase up to 300,000 rubles worth of cryptocurrency per year through each intermediary, qualified investors have no limits, and all investors must pass a mandatory test before trading.
My judgment is that this looks more like a reshuffling of channel business rather than a personal risk cap. The test means service providers have to bear the cost of access management, and whether they can cover the cost depends on the business volume; the quota is calculated per intermediary, which does not equal a cap on an individual's total annual investment. If users spread their purchases across multiple intermediaries, the total exposure could still increase—this is my speculation.
For friends in business, if you encounter such channel-based quota rules, how would you set the line for your total investment and risk reserves? $XAU The trading volume of a certain secure tokenized gold has hit a record high. Simply put, the crypto market has crashed badly, and high-volatility assets are no longer playable. Panicked funds are rushing to find a safe haven to hold on, fully maximizing the safe-haven attribute.
Looking deeper at $BTC, gold has dropped by 30% this year and has only just stabilized around the 4000 mark. There's no real bottom to buy into. This is purely an internal reshuffling of existing funds under extreme panic. It indicates that market confidence is extremely fragile. Chasing gold now has very low cost-effectiveness. Once the market crashes deeply and sentiment warms up, this safe-haven capital will be pulled back in a flash to continue the game.#SoftBank's Heavy Bet on OpenAI: Can Q2 Earnings Deliver Impressive Results? SoftBank Q2: OpenAI's Paper Gains Celebrate, But Single Exposure Risk Remains
On November 10, SoftBank released its FY2026 Q2 earnings report, with the spotlight still on OpenAI. Having invested a total of $64.6 billion and holding about 13% equity; OpenAI's valuation reached $852 billion, generating cumulative unrealized gains of approximately $45 billion, with about $25 billion in a single quarter, making Q2's paper gains highly likely to be impressive.
However, the profit and loss statement is highly tied to OpenAI's valuation: In the previous fiscal year's Q2, net profit was 2.5 trillion yen, and the Vision Fund earned 2.38 trillion yen; in FY2026 Q1, the Vision Fund's pre-tax profit was only 5.4 billion yen, a year-on-year plunge of 98.8%, mainly because OpenAI's valuation remained flat quarter-over-quarter. When valuation rises, profits explode; when valuation stalls, profits nearly vanish.
The funding side is even more concerning: Jefferies reports that OpenAI raised about $70 billion in the past 12 months, nearly 85% (about $60 billion) coming from SoftBank, creating a self-reinforcing valuation loop; SoftBank borrowed another $20 billion in April, partly to invest in OpenAI. Meanwhile, Grab's decline during the same period has offset some gains; Malaysia's $50 billion AI data center remains an intention without formal agreements or timelines.
Assessment: The strong Q2 performance mainly relies on OpenAI's valuation. The key question is whether SoftBank can hedge the extreme single-asset exposure using Arm's cash flow, telecom business, or AI infrastructure deployment. If not, the more dazzling the $45 billion unrealized gains appear, the more underestimated the concentration risk becomes. The on-chain weekend report provided a market forecast for Monday, showing that storage chips are clearly stronger. SK Hynix is expected to open up 4.5%, Samsung about 2.6%, while the overall US stock market is opening flat to slightly weak.
This price is the pre-pricing of Trade.xyz's perpetual contracts. The stock market is closed on weekends, and only this can trade continuously, reflecting market expectations in advance. Popular AI storage stocks like Nvidia, Micron, and SanDisk all quoted slightly below Friday's close over the weekend, showing weakness.
The differentiation is clear: capital is currently prioritizing bets on Korean storage giants. After a sharp drop in the storage sector, capital is speculating on a cyclical recovery, with SK Hynix and Samsung showing greater elasticity. But for US AI leaders, capital is cautious and unwilling to go long. $SKHYNIX
Everyone should understand this is only the advance expectation from on-chain contracts, not a guarantee that Monday's open will follow this trend. It should only be used as a sentiment reference, not an accurate result.
In the crypto space, pay attention as well: weak sentiment in tech stocks will indirectly suppress high-risk assets. The storage sector's isolated strength is a sectoral divergence, not a broad recovery. Don't blindly chase SK Hynix's expected rise; wait for the official open to see real support before making plans. $BTC $ETH
#美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% Vitalik, the founder of Ethereum, posted on X, disagreeing with the recent negative reactions to the anti-data center movement, believing that slowing down the hyper-scale expansion of computing power is overall more beneficial than harmful. Coming from the founder of $ETH, this statement carries a different weight compared to environmental organizations shouting for a decade.
What he offers is not "AI is dangerous so don't build it," but rather a timeline misalignment. With algorithmic progress, the AI capabilities that will require larger-scale data centers in the next two years might be achievable within about four years, or even less, using existing data centers. To translate: the demand priced today as "computing power is never enough" might be cheaply eliminated by algorithms tomorrow.
From this, he draws a second point—the anti-data center movement may not cause catastrophic consequences. What to do with the time saved? His answer is that the world needs more time to address cybersecurity threats and biosecurity risks.
There is also an easily overlooked sentence: scientific research is constrained by factors beyond AI, so a one-year slowdown in AI development causes an actual delay in scientific progress of less than one year. This breaks the equation that "slowing down equals an equivalent loss."
For the market, what’s worth pondering is the scarcity premium of computing power. The AI infrastructure valuation over the past two years has been based on the assumption of "constant new construction," but if algorithms can spread out the two-year demand, the foundation loosens.
One question remains: is the money currently paid for "computing power is never enough" actually paying for a demand that might never come? The Georgia House of Representatives has a total of 180 seats; obtaining 91 seats constitutes a majority. Before the memory card vote supplement, preliminary counts estimated the Democratic Party would secure 93 seats (a safe margin of 2 seats). If this one seat is ultimately certified and reversed, the Democrats would have 92 seats, still exceeding the 91-seat majority threshold, thus retaining control of the state House but with a majority reduced to just 1 seat, making it extremely narrow.
Market reversals usually come with news; awaiting results #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% Can the money saved from $ABNB customer service automation be retained?
Airbnb disclosed that its customer service cost per order in Q3 dropped by more than 17% year-over-year. Improved handling efficiency can enhance profits, but error resolution might shift costs to refunds and complaints. If subsequent repurchases remain stable and the refund rate improves, the savings will be more solid. If the issue escalation rate rises, the net benefits of automation should be reassessed.$CORE ⚠️ Important Reminder
1. No fixed timetable
Zeroing out (price approaching 0) is not a fixed point in time; it is a process of liquidity gradually disappearing:
It doesn't suddenly become 0 on a certain day. The usual path is: exchanges successively delist → depth worsens, slippage becomes huge → only niche OTC/on-chain scattered trades remain → almost no one takes the position, price approaches 0 indefinitely.
If the core support remains (mainnet blocks normally, exchanges still keep trading pairs, community nodes continue running), it can linger at a low level for a long time, months or even longer without zeroing out; but if negative triggers concentrate, the decline will be rapid.
2. Several key triggers that accelerate this process (these are the red lines you watch on your dashboard)
- Multiple mainstream exchanges officially announce batch delisting of CORE trading pairs
- Deposits and withdrawals remain closed for a long time with no clear recovery plan
- Remaining stolen large chips concentratedly dumped
- Large number of validator nodes exit, causing chain operation issues
As long as these signals do not erupt simultaneously, it will not quickly approach zero; once multiple appear at the same time, the risk will sharply increase. CORE Short-Term Risk List
Summarizing the four major short-term risks currently facing CORE, holders need to pay close attention. First is the supply security risk: after the b14g token theft incident, about 19 million tokens have yet to be recovered, compounded by ghost tokens created from the August reward loophole overflow, resulting in long-term selling pressure expectations; two major security incidents occurred consecutively, with unclear compensation plan details, continuously suppressing market sentiment.
Second is the governance trust crisis: there are only about twenty active validator nodes, the project team can quickly coordinate hard forks to intervene in on-chain accounts, casting serious doubt on the decentralization narrative; core members have announced their exit from the DAO, but there is no verifiable handover plan for the treasury and code permissions, and the previously anticipated revenue buyback has yet to materialize.
Third is liquidity risk: Bithumb will delist CORE at the end of November, further shrinking liquidity, thinning market depth, making flash crashes and stampedes highly likely, while there is also potential risk of other exchanges following suit.
Fourth is pressure from the sector and the broader market: Babylon and Merlin continuously divert BTCFi staking funds, and if BTC weakens, the consensus-fragile CORE is very likely to experience a larger pullback than mainstream coins.
Technical bugs are minor issues that can be fixed; the most fatal risks are consensus collapse, liquidity decay, and being caught in downward momentum.$BTC fell below 75,800 in the afternoon, the panic index climbed from 25 to 28, still in the panic zone [reference:0]. Nearly 100 million liquidations in 24 hours, but the funding rate hasn't turned negative, and the long-short ratio even rose to 2.16; what's being washed out is leverage, not positions.
The real awkwardness is with ETFs; in November, a net outflow of 1.28 billion occurred, no one is catching the rebound, and the whale's replenishment volume is just enough to fill the gaps.
$ETH is even more typical; Grayscale ETF just pledged 850,000 ETH, locking nearly 3.9 billion USD. But the ETF overall is still bleeding; the staking lock-up and capital withdrawal are completely out of sync.
A-share media sector gained 13.4% in a week, power equipment 9.3%, but banks and coal stocks closed down against the trend; all the money is betting on elasticity, no one wants the heavyweights.
US chip stocks violently reversed on Friday, AMD jumped 11 points, but the nonfarm payroll of 165,000 pushed interest rate bets to 70%, and the Dow alone dropped 237 points.
All three markets are stubbornly holding amid divergence; whoever can't hold first will be cleared out first. Oil prices plunged 16% in one week, but has the Middle East situation really eased?
After the US midterm elections, the Democrats took control of both houses of Congress. The market once bet on a cooling of US-Iran conflicts, pushing international oil prices down more than 16% in one week. On Friday, Brent crude oil ($BZ) remained above $97, while WTI hovered around $90.
But the reality is not so optimistic.
Oil tankers near Oman were attacked in succession, explosions reoccurred around the Strait of Hormuz, and the US's third aircraft carrier strike group is also heading to the Middle East. Trump stated that he does not rule out taking military action against Iran again. Both sides are conducting diplomatic communications through Qatar, but significant differences remain in the negotiation terms.
Meanwhile, Rapidan Energy believes the probability of a renewed US-Iran conflict is as high as 80%. If the war restarts, oil prices may break through $100 again.
My view: This round of oil price decline is more about the market trading peace expectations in advance rather than the actual disappearance of geopolitical risks.
Next, focus on three key signals:
1. Whether WTI can hold $90; if it effectively breaks below, it indicates the market's confidence in peace talks is strengthening.
2. Whether the situation in the Strait of Hormuz further deteriorates, which directly affects global crude oil supply.
3. The US November CPI and December Federal Reserve interest rate decision; a rebound in oil prices may push inflationary pressures higher again.
For $BTC, rising oil prices may exacerbate inflation concerns, compress the Federal Reserve's room for rate cuts, and thus affect liquidity in risk assets. CORE DAO's "Darkest October": Two Security Incidents, Founders Exit, Can It Still Carry the BTCFi Banner?
October became a defining dark period for Core DAO: first, the official announcement that two core contributors, Rich Rines and Brendon Sedo, stepped down from their DAO positions, externally framed as a move toward decentralization; at the end of the month, the b14g protocol suffered a major vulnerability, with hackers exploiting a zero-amount withdrawal logic to steal 97.05 million CORE tokens. Although about 70% of the assets were recovered through a hard fork, the tracing of the remaining tokens remains uncertain. Coupled with an underlying vulnerability from August involving validator reward overflow, security risks have been repeatedly exposed.
Under multiple shocks, the market has begun to reassess whether CORE can continue to lead the BTCFi sector. The project's biggest pain point is not merely code bugs but a governance trust crisis: the ability to quickly coordinate nodes to push hard forks to modify account states confirms network power centralization, continuously damaging the decentralization narrative. Meanwhile, competitors like Babylon and Merlin continue to divert BTC staking funds, intensifying internal competition within the sector.
Even though the underlying narrative logic of BTC staking remains, the consecutive incidents have severely damaged confidence among institutions and retail investors. To reclaim the leading position in the sector, it is not enough to rely solely on technical fixes for vulnerabilities; transparency of the treasury, transfer of governance rights, and implementation of compensation plans are all indispensable. Security incidents can be remedied, but once consensus is lost, rebuilding becomes extremely difficult.要问 meme 和技术叙事哪个更容易涨，我觉得短时间里，梗确实更容易点火。技术项目讲半天架构，听的人还在查名词；土狗甩张图，群里就能接着玩了。传播这关，技术叙事挺吃亏的。但容易传开，也不等于买盘能接住。我挺爱看梗，可碰到连路线图都写成段子的项目，就有点犯嘀咕：这是在整活，还是压根没打算干活？#美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% 【闪迪（SNDK）1拆8观点】Lowering the threshold to unlock liquidity, short-term profit prevention, long-term focus on computing power
SanDisk (SNDK) is implementing a 1-for-8 stock split, which does not materially change the company's market value or fundamentals, but will have a direct impact on market trading logic and psychology:
1. Significantly lowers the threshold, releasing retail liquidity: The high single stock price makes it difficult for retail investors and employees to hold shares. After the split, the stock price drops to 1/8 of the original (down to around a hundred dollars), greatly lowering the trading threshold, directly stimulating retail participation and turnover rate, significantly enhancing intraday liquidity.
2. Triggers short-term chip game, preventing emotional exhaustion: Stock splits are often seen as a signal of management's confidence in long-term performance. However, the split itself is a non-profit adjustment, and the market may experience a short-to-medium term "good news realization" emotional pullback and institutional profit-taking, causing short-term volatility to increase significantly.
3. Premium transmission to AI storage and Crypto sectors: As an important support for AI data centers and high-bandwidth physical flash memory, SanDisk's split enhances market attention on the storage cycle, and this heat will also positively transmit to decentralized storage infrastructure (such as FIL, AR, and other DePIN ecosystems).
Summary: The stock split is a catalyst for optimizing chip structure and liquidity, with short-term focus on sentiment and turnover, and medium-to-long term still depending on the actual supply and demand of physical storage chips for AI data centers. $SNDK Today (November 8), Bitcoin is around $75,776, down 39.9% from the high of $126,102 on October 6, 2025; Ethereum is around $2,235, down 54.8%.
On the US stock side, on November 5, the Nasdaq dropped 5.52% in a single day, falling 11.9% from the October 6 high, just entering a technical correction; the S&P fell 5.7%.
■ Three scenarios
Scenario A: Bottoming out: ETF outflows stop the decline + the Fed does not act in December, BTC oscillates between 68,832 (200-week moving average, -45.4%) and 75,000.
Scenario B: Typical bear market intensity: a retracement of 60%~68%, corresponding to $40,350~$50,440.
Scenario C: A repeat of the November to December 2018 period (which was -50.6%): about $37,500.
■ Buying pressure is the key variable this round
■ Focus on four signals only
1. Whether ETF weekly net inflows can turn positive; 2. Whether the 68,832 200-week moving average breaks; 3. Whether the Fear and Greed Index (currently 28) can drop to extreme levels and trigger short-term holder loss selling; 4. Whether the 10-year US Treasury yield will break 5%.#软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ #软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ Regarding this question, the simple explanation is that SoftBank is betting heavily on OpenAI, using borrowed huge sums to buy a "large stake" in the ChatGPT company. Whether the financial report looks good mainly depends on how much this stake has "appreciated on the books." How much has SoftBank actually invested? SoftBank Group has cumulatively invested about $64.6 billion in OpenAI, holding approximately 13% of the shares. This means that for every 10 dollars OpenAI's value rises, SoftBank earns a bit more than 1 dollar. This money was invested in several rounds, with an additional $30 billion added this year, paid in three installments of $10 billion each, the last one completed on October 1. Much of the money was raised through debt issuance. What does this have to do with the Q2 financial report? A large part of SoftBank's profits does not come from selling phones or running businesses, but from "valuation increases" of the companies it invests in recorded on the books. When OpenAI's valuation rises, SoftBank can record an "investment gain" in its financial report. In previous quarters, OpenAI's valuation soared from several tens of billions to $852 billion, and SoftBank earned a huge profit from this. So, will Q2 be "impressive"? Most likely not, and I believe there is a possibility of underperformance. The reason is simple: the latest round of financing raised OpenAI's valuation to about $1.25 trillion, but this