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20261027
6. Tesla and SpaceX to merge? Combined holdings of 30,221 bitcoins, about $2.5 billion
1. Elon Musk personally confirmed on SpaceX's earnings call that independent boards on both sides have each formed special committees, but terms have not been agreed upon. He also said: this matter may never be resolved
2. If it happens, the merged company would become the world's sixth-largest publicly listed bitcoin holder, behind Strategy and Metaplanet
3. In 2021, Tesla spent $1.5 billion buying bitcoin, but in 2022, due to liquidity issues, sold about 75%
SpaceX is the opposite, with a holding cost of about $661 million, and has barely moved. But its Q3 capital expenditure was $20 billion, with $16 billion invested in AI infrastructure; Q4 guidance: $35 billion to $40 billion
4. China accounts for about 20% of Tesla's revenue (Shanghai factory contributes more than half of global production), Starlink has no operating license in China, and SpaceX also does US defense work (US government business accounts for a significant portion).
JPMorgan calls this the "biggest obstacle," with a plan for Tesla's China business to become locally controlled.
5. Don't automatically see a larger combined holding as a bitcoin positive; what really needs attention is cash flow pressure and historical behavior 20261027
5. Circle CEO doesn't care about the coin price?
1. BTC price is falling, and when the Circle CEO was asked about it by reporters, he only replied: I don't really pay attention to how these digital commodities are traded. Interpretation: He doesn't care about the coin, he cares about the money.
A CEO of a stablecoin issuing company saying he doesn't care about the coin price sounds like a vegetable seller not looking at vegetable prices but focusing on making you spend money.
2. USDC is an electronic dollar, the world's second largest, with a market cap of about $72 billion.
3. AI agents will work and pay by themselves; in the future, not only people will spend money, but a program that can buy things on its own will need to carry its own wallet, so money for machines is needed.
4. Circle launched the Arc chain in September, with about $740 million USDC already on-chain, but its security is questionable.
5. The US OCC is setting rules for stablecoins, simply put, there are three points:
(1) The deposited money must be backed by equivalent cash and government bonds.
(2) If you want to redeem dollars, you get every cent within two business days.
(3) No interest is given.
6. "Bipartisan consensus"? The Clarity Act didn't even pass the Senate.
7. Regulation implementation + banks entering + giants joining
Circle obtained the first digital currency banking license in the US in July; banks are starting to compete, 21 institutions have formed a coalition to issue stablecoins, and Binance invested $100 million in September.On the same day, the two ETFs moved in opposite directions. The main players are $BTC and $ETH. The $BTC spot ETF had a net inflow of about $110.34 million. The $ETH spot ETF had a net outflow of about $88.58 million. The total net inflow of the four mainstream ETFs that day was about $9.92 million. The money hasn't disappeared; it just changed places.
The details are even more interesting. The entire $BTC amount came from BlackRock's IBIT. Other firms made no moves that day. On the $ETH side, BlackRock's ETHA accounted for the majority, about $104.71 million. Fidelity's FETH actually had an inflow of about $16.13 million. The same institution was buying with one hand and selling with the other. $ETH has already seen over $1.1 billion outflow in October, the largest monthly outflow this year.
Price-wise, the two are not in sync. $BTC is currently around $79,900, still hovering near the $80,000 mark. $ETH is around $2,310, down about 4.26% over 7 days and about 14.27% over 30 days. Watching this pair feels like two people going out together, one heading left and the other right, both insisting they're not wrong.
So this article won't discuss direction, only divergence. $BTC is seeing its first day of inflow. $ETH is experiencing outflow again. The next point to watch is whether the outflow continues into a second day or if it’s just a one-day turnover.The real trigger this week is not the interest rate decision itself, but the combined risk of "strong data + hawkish statements." The market is almost certain that the October FOMC will hold steady, so the decision itself is no surprise; all the suspense lies in every word Powell says at 2:30 AM and the core PCE at 8:30 PM. 📊 Timeline first: interest rate decision announced at 2:00 AM, press conference at 2:30 AM. The unchanged rate is fully priced in; what really moves funds is the wording—if Powell acknowledges inflation is easing and leaves the door open for future rate cuts, Nasdaq and the memory sector will immediately be pushed by funds; if he continues to emphasize inflation volatility and delays rate cuts, high-valuation stocks like $SOXL and $SNDK will be the first to feel pressure. The same press conference, two different wordings, two directions. Next, look at the 8:30 PM GDP and core PCE. GDP is like a thermometer; if too strong, the market will believe "the economy can hold up, no need to rush rate cuts"; core PCE is the inflation gauge the Fed cares most about. If PCE is higher than expected, rate cut expectations cool down, and US tech stocks are prone to sell-offs; if PCE is 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous value, rate cut expectations heat up, and growth stocks gain upward momentum. This is not abstract logic but the most direct fund switch this week. The key second-level insight is here: Hynix's earnings have just been released, and the memory industry is in a "catching the rebound" phase. The fundamentals have already delivered answers, but for the industry to break out of the big trend, it cannot bypass the Fed's macro gate. Earnings are the industry's foundation; interest rates and inflation are the market's access control. No matter how solid the foundation is, 🔥 BTC is increasingly resembling US tech stocks! As the Nasdaq weakens, the crypto market also finds it hard to stay unaffected!
🔴 Strengthened correlation: The correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq has recently risen, indicating that their short-term trends may align again. However, correlation is dynamic; a 0.5–0.6 correlation does not mean every rise or fall is synchronized, nor does it directly prove that Nasdaq determines BTC's trend.
🟠 Core reason: Institutions are gradually including BTC in their risk asset allocations. When AI tech stocks face sell-offs, inflation exceeds expectations, or rate cut expectations cool down, capital may simultaneously reduce risk exposure; conversely, strong tech earnings reports and improved market sentiment can also drive crypto assets to rebound.
🟢 Macro key factors: Federal Reserve policies, the US dollar index, and US Treasury yields are important variables linking US stocks and the crypto market. Spot BTC ETFs make traditional capital inflows and outflows more convenient and may also strengthen short-term correlation.
🔵 Personal judgment: When analyzing BTC going forward, don’t just focus on candlestick charts; also observe Nasdaq trends, ETF capital flows, and key support levels. If US stocks continue to weaken, BTC’s rebound may also face pressure; if Nasdaq stabilizes and capital returns, the market has a better chance to improve.
⚠️ Risk reminder: Correlation does not equal causation. BTC still has its own supply-demand and news-driven factors. Do not blindly open positions based solely on Nasdaq’s rise or fall!
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC $ETH $SOL #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ What should we look at for $AAVE lending demand recovery, not just total locked value? Collateral price increases can raise TVL but don't necessarily mean more borrowing; utilization, net revenue, and bad debt are closer indicators of business quality. If volatility rises after the FOMC, liquidation risk will also increase accordingly. If borrowing and fees continue to improve and bad debt is controlled, I will turn positive; if revenue weakens and risk exposure expands, TVL cannot be used to cover up problems.Solana's "double deflation" proposal has been historically approved, but the price of SOL has fallen instead of rising at the $100 mark. This reveals a harsh reality: when macro liquidity tightens, even the most attractive long-term benefits are ignored in the short term.
$SOL is reported at $100.11 (-1.73%). The proposal doubles the annual inflation reduction rate, bringing the terminal inflation forward to 2029, combined with massive net inflows into ETFs, making the long-term logic solid. However, it is currently caught between "all good news priced in" and "macro headwinds," with short-term pricing power still dependent on BTC's mood.
$BTC is reported at $79,860.1, firmly defending the $80,000 level. Reflation concerns suppress risk appetite, and rate cut expectations have cooled; meanwhile, spot ETFs are seeing large outflows, and Coinbase premiums remain negative. If BTC breaks down, altcoins will struggle to fare well.
$DOGE is reported at $0.0772. Spot ETFs have recently seen net outflows, and institutions remain cautious. Meme coins heavily rely on sentiment and incremental funds, and in a risk-off mode, their "high elasticity" can easily reverse into "high vulnerability."
[Summary] The dilemmas of the three differ: SOL is "born at the wrong time," BTC is "holding firm against macro pressures," and DOGE is experiencing "capital withdrawal." It is recommended to wait for the Federal Reserve decision and macro clearing before the market re-prices SOL's scarcity.
#Solana通胀缩减提案获投票通过 $SOXL This rebound is not because the bulls won, but because the shorts ran first. The price bounced from 77.99 to 94.44, while open interest actually decreased by 3.3%.
1. In the past 24 hours, liquidations on OKX were almost one-sided: the 141,000 USD range from 94.44 to 95.38 was all shorts, while the 23,000 USD range from 87.83 to 88.77 had only 14,000 USD longs. The bulls basically took no hits.
2. Typical short covering: price rises, open interest falls, liquidations concentrated on the short side, and buying comes from closing positions rather than new money. The 4-hour EMA20 is at 88.41, and the price is already above it; EMA60 is at 94.15, right overhead. This is a triple-leveraged daily reset instrument, so sideways movement means loss—turnover is 10.13 times, ATR 4.24%.
3. This Wednesday, the FOMC meeting overlaps with the tech earnings window (Cointelegraph, 10-26), which will decide whether this short covering turns into a trend or stalls at EMA60. The key observation points are only 77.99 and 94.15.
If I were a bull, I would argue: the shorts have been fully cleared, EMA20 is turning up, and 77.99 forms a double bottom. The premise is that open interest rebounds—without new positions, the buying from covering will run out.
So the question is not whether it can hold above 94.15, but how many of these longs are truly new money with real capital? #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ [Three disclosures each worth 30 seconds: two quarterly reports, one obscure 13G/A]
Every earnings season, the highest information density isn't in the headlines but in the corners of the disclosure calendar. On October 26, three documents each deserve about 30 seconds.
Two are quarterly reports: Cincinnati Financial (CINF) and Brown & Brown (BRO). The former is a property and casualty insurance company; the key focus is the combined ratio—below 100% means underwriting itself is profitable. Recently, the US property and casualty insurance industry has been pressured by catastrophe losses and reinsurance rate squeezes, making underwriting profit margins a sector-wide issue. CINF serves as a sample to observe how this pressure transmits. The latter is an insurance brokerage firm whose business model relies on mergers and acquisitions combined with organic growth; the focus is whether the organic growth has been diluted after consolidation. Neither company is a traffic star, but both are commonly used as reference anchors in institutional pricing.
The third is more obscure: Optimum Communications filed a 13G/A. A 13G is a statutory disclosure requirement under US securities law for shareholders holding more than 5%. The "/A" at the end indicates an amendment—meaning a major shareholder has increased or decreased holdings, or there has been a change in shareholder identity. These documents contain no performance figures but are the standard window to observe changes in shareholder structure; institutional inflows and outflows often leave traces here first.
Many people face hundreds of announcements daily and don't know where to start. The practical approach is: you don't have to read every document, but you need to know what "priceable information" the market has added each day—these three documents are part of what was added on October 26. Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$HUMA large trade costs decrease simultaneously. Simulated buy/sell slippage for 100,000 scale drops from 1.86%/1.75% to 1.39%/1.55%. Comparing adjacent windows, execution constraints are relaxing.
$CAP small trade costs on both sides are close, large buy orders are more expensive. Simulated buy/sell slippage for 10,000 scale is 0.12%/0.13%, for 100,000 scale is 1.31%/0.77%. Asymmetry not visible at 10,000 scale, exposed at 100,000 scale.
$IRYS large buy order costs decrease. Simulated buy slippage for 100,000 scale drops from 1.10% to 0.91%. Depth improves, feasibility of large orders increases.The same batch of funds is holding alone on BTC while retreating on ETH — this divergence says more than the FOMC itself.
Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $110 million last night, but all came from a single leading product, with all other products showing zero inflow or outflow. On the same day, Ethereum ETFs had a net outflow of $88.6 million, with one product alone accounting for $105 million, setting a new single-day outflow record for that product. Same direction, two faces.
$BTC around 79,700. The leading product ended the combined $770 million outflow over the previous two days, but the ETF still had a net outflow of about $200 million for the entire month of October. 79,200 is the low point tested twice, and the 50-day moving average above is near 80,700; if it can't reclaim that level, it remains in correction.
$ETH around 2,310. That product's single-day outflow set a record, while another product bucked the trend with an inflow of $16 million, but it was insignificant. 2,300 is the most critical support right now, and pressure on the ETF side has not eased.
$SOL around 100. ETFs had a net outflow of $8.23 million yesterday, with two products outflowing $7.22 million and $1.82 million respectively. The $100 level is repeatedly tested, with buying continuously absent.
In short: There is a 90% probability that the FOMC will hold steady, but PCE expectations have risen year-over-year to 3.6%. BTC's ETF is supported by one product, ETH is dragged by the same type of product, and SOL's buying is absent. Money is not panicking, but it hasn't returned either.
For market record only, not investment advice.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Over 300 million in net profit, Galaxy Digital delivered a strong quarter.
But what really stands out is the line after that: total power reserve for data centers expanded to over 5.7 gigawatts ⚡
Cash plus stablecoins plus U.S. Treasuries, 4.9 billion; total shareholders' equity, 3 billion.
Using 4.9 billion to build out the power grid — that's not something a brokerage should be doing.
3.5 billion USD senior secured notes to fund Helios I Phase II; on the other hand, they repurchased 9.8 million shares this year, and the board approved another 200 million quota.
Crypto brokerages are starting to look like power real estate developers.
$BTC
$ETH 对于$ETH 来说，财库公司BitMine停止买入，短期无疑是利空。
目前距离5%的持有目标，还差58067枚。也就是还有四五周的时间就会停止买入，市场已经在为这个转折定价了。
但是长期来看，5%的总量被锁定，筹码集中度提升，卖盘更少。而且，Bitmine的重心会转向质押收益和业务扩展。其他机构和资金看到收益，也会成为潜在的买盘。
最终以太坊会从单纯的买币叙事，转向持币收益叙事。
$BTC $SOL
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 **$ETH Smart Money Analysis: Why Are Large Traders Still Holding Their Positions?** Let’s break down the latest $ETH smart money data and see what the positioning tells us. **Current $ETH Market Data** - ETH Price: $2,320 - Funding Rate: 0.0050% - Smart Money Traders: 2,329 - Reported Long-Short Ratio: 24.03% **🐂 Long Smart Money** - Traders: 842 - Position Value: $363.55M USDT - Average Entry Price: $2,821 - Unrealized P&L: -$78.4572M - Profit Ratio: 32.06% Long positions are carrying subst$BTC The US and Iran are holding consultations on a navigation plan for the Strait of Hormuz. The market has quickly digested the tail-end panic premium related to the blockade and supply cut fears, causing international oil prices to fall accordingly. However, this is only a framework discussion; the two sides have not reached consensus on core issues such as nuclear matters and regional security. The navigation plan has not yet been implemented and there is a risk of reversals at any time. This round of oil price decline is more a withdrawal of geopolitical risk premiums and does not indicate a weakening of the fundamental trend. Weaker crude oil prices will indirectly ease inflationary pressures, giving the Federal Reserve some policy space, which is favorable for US Treasuries and risk assets; if negotiations break down and friction in the strait resumes, oil prices could quickly rebound and inflation expectations would rise again. The market remains in a high volatility window, so it is unwise to simply bet on a continuous decline in oil prices. The market carries risks, and the above is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC $ETH #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ All financial media are writing about the Anthropic IPO drama, and perhaps many friends are still hesitating whether to chase the high chip stocks, which is a narrow perspective. Spend three minutes following Ajian to analyze it from a Crypto angle, and maybe you'll have a more complete framework to judge this matter. First, let's look at the investment exposures around the unlisted AI companies in recent days, and what products the industry has created to compete for the chance to get in:
First is OKX's Pre-IPO X-Perps, offering up to 10x leverage cash-settled contracts to eligible users in the European Economic Area. What you buy is not Anthropic stock, nor do you have IPO allocation rights; it's just a derivative exposure to the company's valuation changes. The risks include not only leverage liquidation but also the lack of a public stock price as an anchor, so the contract price may deviate from the final IPO pricing;
Second is trade.xyz's ANT pre-market perpetual, which tracks the price exposure of Anthropic's proposed Class A shares but does not grant real equity, dividends, or voting rights. Worth noting is the basis risk: without directly tradable spot stock, the contract price may not smoothly converge to the final issuance price, and the specific post-listing conversion arrangements depend on the contract terms;
Third is Ondo Finance's OpenAI pre-IPO tokenized notes, planned to be open for subscription to eligible private clients. This path differs from perpetual contracts but also does not equal direct ownership of unlisted shares. The issuer, contract rights, liquidity, and exit arrangements are all risks that need to be studied. This product corresponds to OpenAI, but because the nodes are close and the processes differ, Ajian places it here for comparison.
These three products represent three different participation paths but all face one problem: the underlying stock lacks a mature public market price as an anchor since it is not yet publicly traded. The product's trading price may be influenced by the previous financing valuation, private market transactions, market sentiment, and specific contract mechanisms. It does not equal the company's final IPO pricing, nor does it guarantee the true market value after listing.
Finally, if Ajian were to invest, first is always position management, and secondly, I would rank these three types of products by the certainty of the exit path rather than the upside potential. Understanding exactly what you are buying is far more important than guessing how much it will rise after listing.
That's all, DYOR #Anthropic officially files for IPO, potentially setting a record for listing valuation 如果把这周ETF的进出和巨鲸加仓放在同一张衍生品桌上，你会先盯哪一边？ 你看到的是买盘回归，还是杠杆在悄悄换手？ 这两天我把现货ETF、机构持仓和永续合约的数据叠在一起看，最直观的感受是：表面在回暖，底层却有点脆。美国现货BTC ETF本周净流入3.01亿美元，结束了连续几周的失血；BlackRock的IBIT单周进5.657亿，可其中一天又吐出6.356亿，节奏像坐小过山车。另一边，Saylor的Strategy握着超84.8万枚BTC、占总供应4%以上，最近又用8.29万美元均价补了267枚；Grant Cardone买入80万美元，Strive持仓抬到3.6818万枚。数字摆在这，机构的底仓没松，但ETF那端的边际买盘明显在打架。 我更在意的是衍生品这层。现货有承接、ETF却大进大出，通常意味着短线资金在用永续和期权表达观点，而不是单纯搬现货。只要资金费率还偏正、未平仓合约没有明显出清，价格往上走就容易遇到多头挤压后的回踩；反过来，若费率回落、OI在下跌中收缩，反而说明杠杆被洗掉，后续上行会更干净。简单说，现在市场交易的更像"杠杆能不能撑住"的预期，而不是"ETF会不会一直买"的#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
$SKHYNIX SK Hynix's Q3 earnings report is due tomorrow morning, and I am betting on exceeding expectations.
AI server demand is still growing, but what is more easily overlooked is that traditional DRAM prices are also rising. There is demand for high-end memory, and ordinary DRAM prices are also improving. With both driving growth, profit elasticity might be greater than the market expects.
So this time, I am focusing less on whether HBM4 can tell a new story, and more on how much profit the existing business can actually contribute. My judgment is that the market may be underestimating the impact of storage price increases on this quarter's performance. Is Wall Street starting to buy the dip? $BTC has been drifting sideways and down for a month, but ETF funds are quietly flowing back!
What’s worth paying attention to recently is not just where BTC has fallen to, but that institutional fund sentiment is changing.
1️⃣ ETF funds are warming up
Previously, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw continuous outflows, but recently signs of fund inflows have appeared. If net inflows continue, it indicates institutional demand may be recovering, which is an important signal to watch for a possible market rebound.
2️⃣ After a month of decline, the rebound window is worth watching
BTC has experienced a sustained pullback, and market sentiment has clearly cooled. After selling pressure gradually eases, once buyers re-enter, a rebound could come faster than expected. What’s missing now might be a catalyst to drive market sentiment.
3️⃣ Two macro signals can’t be ignored
Focus next on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting and PCE inflation data. If policy expectations and inflation data lean positive, market risk appetite may recover; otherwise, the market may remain volatile.
4️⃣ How to view BTC’s key levels?
On the upside, watch $82,500 and $84,000 as resistance zones that need to be broken for a rebound; on the downside, pay attention to $80,000 and $78,000. If support holds, the rebound has a foundation for further development.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 这轮市场震荡，让不少高杠杆多头付出了代价。 从24小时合约清算数据来看，BTC和ETH合计爆仓超过5396万U，多单清算金额均高于空单。 但缩短到最近4小时，清算规模反而是ETH更大，这个细节值得关注。 📊 先看看关键数据： 🟠 BTC：多头损失最明显 24小时总爆仓：3154.63万U 多单爆仓：1836.94万U 空单爆仓：1317.69万U 多单占比约58.2%，是三个币种中清算金额最大的。 🔵 ETH：多空双方都在承压 24小时总爆仓：2241.90万U 多单爆仓：1222.51万U 空单爆仓：1019.39万U 值得注意的是，最近4小时ETH爆仓229.53万U，高于BTC的160.24万U。 🟣 CORE：清算集中在多头 24小时总爆仓：4423.20U 全部来自多单，空单清算为零，但整体金额较小。 💡 我的观察： 这组数据最大的看点，并不是单纯的多头爆仓，而是不同时间周期的清算强度存在差异。 BTC在24小时维度损失更大，ETH在最近4小时反而更突出。 爆仓数据只能反映已经发生的杠杆清算，不能直接判断市场接下来涨跌。 我更关注清算过后，价格能否企稳，以及新的买盘#SK Hynix Q3 earnings report is coming, can HBM4 boost profitability? $HYPE trading activity is rising, but is value capture sufficient to support the valuation? Derivatives platforms' revenue depends on trading volume and risk management. When volatility increases, revenue may rise, but it also brings liquidation, regulatory, and concentration risks. If fees and buyback mechanisms are transparent and sustainable, token support is more credible; if growth relies solely on high-leverage trading, revenue and price may decline simultaneously when the market cools down. Over the past month, Wall Street has quietly changed its appetite.
Chip stocks were sold off, while essentials were bought. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped about 12% in a month, with a maximum drawdown close to 15%. Yet, the S&P 500 itself fell less than 1%. Strange? Not really—the index is being carried by big tech like Nvidia, while most stocks are actually rising.
The equal-weighted S&P rose 2.5%, while the regular S&P fell 0.9%. September was still dominated by the giants, but in October, the ordinary stocks led by four points. Such a monthly reversal is rare even when looking back to 1990.
$SPY
Where did the money go? Energy rose 13%, daily consumer goods rose 9%. Pools, RVs, yachts—things no one mentioned before, all performed well last week.
$QQQ
Now we’re stuck in a midterm election year. Historically, this year is the weakest for the stock market, but late October often marks a temporary low; in the year following the election, the S&P has risen 19 times. However, in 2018, it kept falling until Christmas before bottoming out, so these patterns are only references, not signals.
$NVDA
In short: it’s not necessarily that AI is over, but more like a style shift—from a few giants to a broader market. Going forward, focus on two things: whether it can hold by month-end, and whether chips will continue to drag.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC $ETH Iran seeks peace, is the bull market back?
Lulu will break down this news step by step for everyone:
1. The current deadlock: no formal full-scale war, but both sides are probing and clashing, with the Strait of Hormuz constantly at risk of being blocked, causing the market to add a high risk premium to oil prices.
2. Iran does not want a prolonged standoff with the US; a ceasefire comes with conditions. The US must meet Iran's demands and guarantee the interests of Iran and its resistance front, not a one-sided compromise.
3. Establishing a regionally led order: Iran does not want the US or other external powers to dominate Middle East rules. It hopes local Middle Eastern countries can negotiate security arrangements themselves, which is a long-term strategic goal for Iran.
This is just a starting signal for diplomatic talks, not a ceasefire agreement. Iran has signaled willingness to end the deadlock, but the prerequisite is that the US accepts Iran's demands.
Currently, it is still negotiations with no confirmed ceasefire. The key is to watch the US side's statements #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $IRYS $ETH $BTC got liquidated
I didn't sleep all night yesterday, only went to bed at 4 a.m. Many friends are trading this IRYS, basically an 80/20 split, 20% are making money, 80% are losing, it's really tough. $90,000 got liquidated, almost half a year's investment all sunk into this coin. Yesterday, the whale wanted to liquidate the big holders, so it surged straight up, giving many people a chance. People thought it would be like usual, with a wick and then a drop, but this coin seems to have no intention of turning back, it kept pushing upwards. Only after hitting 0.4 and liquidating the big holders on various exchanges did it finally come down. Now it's still consolidating with a hat trick sideways move, really can't figure out the whale's mind 🧠. As for myself, these past two days, I cut losses on ETH. I don't want to hold anymore, this structure clearly broke the range, I don't see room to go up, the rebound is weak, but there's plenty of chips below. If I were the whale, I would definitely use the current environment to probe the chips below. I don't want to take such a big risk, plus there's a Fed decision on the 29th, who can say for sure? Small funds can't withstand big volatility, that's the truth. So I protect my principal, don't gamble on unclear markets, only trade what I understand..$BTC The US and Iran have held consultations on the navigation plan for the Strait of Hormuz. The market has quickly digested the tail-end panic premium related to the blockade and supply cut fears, leading to a decline in international oil prices. However, this was only a framework discussion; the two sides have not reached consensus on core issues such as nuclear matters and regional security. The navigation plan has not yet been implemented and there is a risk of reversals at any time. This round of oil price decline is more a withdrawal of geopolitical risk premium and does not indicate a weakening of the fundamental trend. Weaker crude oil prices will indirectly ease inflationary pressures, giving the Federal Reserve some policy space, which is favorable for US Treasuries and risk assets. If negotiations break down and tensions in the strait flare up again, oil prices could quickly rebound, and inflation expectations would rise again. The market remains in a high volatility window, so it is unwise to simply bet on a continuous decline in oil prices. The market carries risks; the above is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 The company hoarding the most coins didn't buy a single Bitcoin this week 📉
SEC filing: From October 19 to 25, Strategy neither bought nor sold Bitcoin.
$204.9 million was used to repurchase preferred shares STRC.
Accounts from October to now: spent about $664 million on buybacks, only $72.3 million on buying coins.
I think the treasury narrative has changed: first, see whose balance sheet is stronger; don't chase coin-hoarding stocks for now.
If they resume buying coins next time, it just means they're catching their breath.
This round of coin-hoarding stocks, are you following or watching first?
$MSTR Conclusion first: Today's $DOOD funding rate is -0.6248%, settled every 8 hours, which totals -1.87% per day. This is not a bearish signal; it's a thermometer for the bears.
Breaking down three numbers: $DOOD perpetual contracts traded $295 million in 24 hours, with only $3.77 million open interest, turnover rate 78x; meanwhile, spot trading volume in 24 hours is only about $8.86 million — perpetual is 33 times the spot. The price is being pushed up on perpetuals, not spot buying.
Looking at the chart: On 10-26 at noon, the 4H candle shows $DOOD rising from 0.001378 to 0.002666, an 8-hour +93% increase, with single candle volume jumping from the usual 1.5 billion tokens to 23.4 billion tokens; on 10-27 at 8 AM it surged again to 0.002945, then retraced steadily to 0.00204, a 30.6% pullback from the high, 24-hour -9.65% (CoinGecko synced at -9.16%, market cap down to $16.18 million, -88% from all-time high).
So the correct interpretation of the negative funding rate is: bears are very crowded and could be squeezed at any time. The surge at 8 AM today was a preview. The funding rate tells you where the money is standing, not where the price is going.
Your turn: When you see such a negative funding rate, do you short along or wait until settlement to decide? $DOOD马上又到了Robinhood公布财报的日子了。期权市场隐含财报后波动约 10.2%（历史模型口径约 8.1%）——说明市场本身就在定价“大动”。 上季度（Q2 2026） 是 Robinhood 上市以来最强季度之一：
营收 $1.308B（同比 +32%），超预期的 $1.287B；稀释 EPS $0.62，大幅超出 $0.43 的一致预期。
交易收入 $776M（+44%）：事件合约 $156M（增逾 10 倍，合约数达创纪录的 136 亿张）、期权 $342M（+29%）、股票 $129M（+95%）、加密 $100M（-38%）。
但是财报公布后仍然下跌。事实上，近三季财报次日股价分别下跌 -3.6%、-13.2%、-8.9%——“beat 但 sell off”已成惯性。
那这次的财报会怎么样？如果beat都是sell off，那不及预期不是完辣？
市场对于财报预期的一些核心数字：
营收 $1.44B；同比 +$12.9%，若达标将创单季新高
分项预期：期权收入约 $4.0 亿（同比 +31.5%）、股票收入约 $1.33 亿（+54.7%）、加密货币收入约 $1.19 Can the $SUI ecosystem growth overcome the token supply pressure? Active applications and capital inflows are positive signals, but incentive trading and unlocked supply in emerging public chains will dilute demand. Markets are usually more selective about cash flow and liquidity before the FOMC. If trading volume and active users persist, and the price holds relatively strong against mainstream coins, the trend is of higher quality; if volume increase only comes from short-term activity or supply growth, I would turn cautious.$BEAT When is the big plunge Leverage positions remain, but liquidation is very light
The derivatives market for Dogecoin is unusually quiet. Open interest holds steady around $215 million, so leverage positions remain; however, in the past 24 hours, liquidations on both long and short sides combined total less than $50,000. The leverage is there, but liquidation hasn't occurred.
This comparison reveals two things. First, the overall leverage on $DOGE positions is not high—liquidations are concentrated in high-leverage positions, and a $50,000 liquidation amount means most traders have sufficient margin and have not been forcibly liquidated. Second, the narrow price fluctuations have not created conditions for forced liquidations. Liquidations require prices to quickly hit the liquidation threshold, and a daily volatility of 2.4% is insufficient to trigger most positions.
A calm market has its benefits: without cascading liquidations, prices are not pushed around by leverage amplifiers. But outstanding leverage is still outstanding risk; the $215 million in open contracts won't disappear just because the market is quiet—it is simply temporarily unused. Once volatility rebounds from low levels, these positions will again amplify market moves—regardless of direction. So don't mistake this calm for safety; it only delays volatility. Leverage never sleeps; it is just waiting for a price.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ $ANTHROPIC has publicly submitted the S-1 to the SEC, with the market expecting a listing as early as mid-November. Combined with the earnings reports from Google, Microsoft, and Amazon in the next two days, let's see if this can boost market sentiment and trigger a rebound with semiconductors like at the end of July. However, the current market issues still persist. AI capital expenditures are squeezing the free cash flow of some cloud providers, increasing their reliance on external financing for new expansions. Meanwhile, high oil prices are fueling concerns about sticky inflation. Although some Federal Reserve officials have indicated that rate hikes do not need to occur at every meeting consecutively, the elevated oil prices remain a Damocles sword hanging over the market. Currently, the market pricing for the October FOMC does not expect a rate hike. If the major cloud providers' business growth, profitability, and cash flow exceed expectations enough to sustain high capital expenditures through 2027, the Nasdaq and semiconductors could see a round of sentiment recovery. In the short term, sentiment repair will dominate, but in the medium to long term, it is hard to say it can outweigh concerns about financing and inflation. The market still expects a 25bp rate hike in December with over 70% probability. Additionally, a giant IPO like Anthropic's before listing will have a certain draining effect on the market. Referencing SpaceX's historical window: after publicly filing the S-1 on May 20, the Nasdaq oscillated upward, then fell after reaching a stage high on June 3. Although there were rebounds during this period, it declined again by June 10, only to rebound the day before the listing on June 11. 帕尔 $BTCETF 每日观点 ——10.27 1、数据情况：周一 BTC ETF 单日净流入 +1.1034 亿，但全是 IBIT 一家干的，其余 11 只全是 0。 2、数据分析 1）贝莱德在 80–81.5 机构成本区再次出手，单日独自吸金过亿，连续两天净流出直接终结。 2）上周四、周五狂砸的 FBTC / ARKB，周一流量归零，说明上一波受美股财报和高油价惊吓的短线动量浮筹，有大概率阶段性出清。 3）同日 ETH ETF 流出约 -8858 万，SOL -823 万，XRP -361 万，合计约 -1 亿；钱在从山寨撤，往 BTC（尤其 IBIT）躲。 4）10 月累计还差一口气：截至 10.26 约 -0.92 亿，离全月由负转正不到 1 亿；IBIT 月内已累计约 +9.38 亿。 但是资金回流≠立刻暴拉。结构上还是看关键位置拒绝还是站稳。45 billion big Bitcoin dump! $SKHYNIX "setting off fireworks" at a high level, is the main force going for a total kill?
Buying on expectations and selling on facts, when the good news lands, it's time for the scythe to swing!
Analysis: Tonight's earnings report + rumors of a buyback up to 45 billion look very attractive. But looking at the chart, the current price is 1034, consolidating at a high level. The liquidation chart shows that there is short-selling fuel above 1045-1070, but below 1000-1013 is packed with massive long liquidation blood bags! Capital outflow over 7 days is severe, short-term inflow is purely a lure before the earnings report. The main force's intention is extremely sneaky: use the good news for a fake breakout to trigger shorts, then reverse to smash the market, wiping out the chasing longs all at once!
Viewpoint: I've seen many "good news turning bad" pig butchering traps; chasing at this time is purely catching a flying knife.
Suggestion: Short on rallies. Short in batches at 1040-1050, defend at 1060, target directly the long trap pit below at 1010. #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ A 50x leveraged short position doesn't necessarily bet on how deep the price will fall; it could also be about whether one can precisely time the market. I saw Core Trader 19 (0x0c1f69…9672b) open a short of 53.158 SP500 contracts, with a notional value of about $407,700, at a reference price of $7,669.0029; this is an opening position, with no profit or loss realized yet.
I'm reluctant to interpret this $400k+ simply as "strong bearish confidence." Roughly calculating with 50x leverage, the initial margin corresponds to about $8,153, but this does not equal the total collateral actually put up in the wallet. The notional position acts like a magnifying glass, enlarging the risk exposure but not directly revealing the trader's actual capital or resolve.
More importantly, it's about the margin for error. If the price moves against the position by about 1%, this short position would incur an unrealized loss of roughly $4,077, which is about half of the theoretical initial margin mentioned above, not accounting for fees. Even if the directional judgment eventually proves correct, a single adverse price swing along the way could push the position into a forced or passive state; the exact liquidation point still depends on the margin arrangements.
So what I see is not a ready-made directional answer but an execution challenge. What I want to observe next is whether this address will add margin or adjust the position, using subsequent actions to test how much judgment error it is willing to bear. Does the expansion of $AVAX subnets and applications create sustainable network demand? The number of projects is not the end goal; the key is whether active users, fees, and token usage persist, as short-term data driven by subsidies can be misleading. If macro risk appetite contracts, funds will first withdraw from high-volatility public chains. If activity growth also brings net fees and retention, the outlook can turn positive; if traffic declines after incentives end, the hype should not be considered fundamental.The moment to short and pick up money has arrived. Why is $RE the most suitable altcoin to short this year?
Bitcoin was designed to resist inflation and has an extremely high acquisition difficulty. After Bitcoin achieved great success, a bunch of fake coins pretending to be digital currencies started to be issued crazily. In the past few years, 120 million altcoins have been issued, of which 99.99% have completely gone to zero or disappeared. Among those with trading records, 50% have gone to zero. For those involving large teams, the median investment return one year after listing is -81%. The essence of altcoins is over-issuance, which is exactly the opposite of Bitcoin. Therefore, Bitcoin's market value and market share continue to rise, while altcoins continuously fall infinitely in the opposite direction.
Shorting altcoins = picking up money, but most altcoins in the market have already dropped 99%, so shorting must choose new coins. Currently, RE is the most suitable new coin to short. It rode the Bitcoin bull market at listing and hasn't dropped much. Now the market has turned bearish, combined with a one-time unlocking of 40 million RE tokens in December and a subsequent unlocking of 750 million tokens, this guarantees that this altcoin is absolutely powerless to rise. Therefore, RE can be said to be the most suitable altcoin to short and pick up money. It is expected that after the 40 million tokens dump in December, the price can drop to 0.15; after another dump of 126 million tokens in June next year, it can drop to 0.07; and after unlocking another 126 million tokens in December next year, it can drop to 0.03. When competing altcoins appear, it will fall below 0.01. Currently, shorting offers at least 20 times the profit. SK Hynix Q3 Earnings Forecast: I Bet Yes (Beating Expectations)
I just opened a Yes position on Outcomes for whether SK Hynix's earnings this quarter will beat expectations, costing 0.99 XP. Currently, there's a slight unrealized loss, but my conviction remains strong.
The core reason is that the market's expectations for this quarter are already very high, but I believe there's still a chance to exceed them a bit more:
The institutional consensus generally expects revenue close to 98 trillion KRW, operating profit around 77 trillion KRW, and an operating margin near 78%. This is already a historically high profit margin, mainly supported by the volume growth of HBM (especially HBM4 supplied to NVIDIA) and the continued price increases of DRAM/NAND.
AI inference demand is still accelerating, KV-cache and data center storage demand are strong, and multiple brokerages (including Citi) believe the actual operating profit could beat consensus by a few points.
Last quarter already set a record, and this quarter HBM4 is starting to truly contribute revenue. Coupled with long-term contracts locking in prices, the supply-tight situation is not over yet, and price elasticity remains.
Of course, there are risks: the ramp-up progress of HBM4, competition with Samsung, and the market's expectations are already quite full. If guidance isn't strong enough, the stock price might fluctuate. But I still think the probability of earnings beating expectations is higher, so I bought Yes first.
$SKHY $SKHYNIX
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ After the market closes tomorrow, Hynix $SKHYNIX will report, and I'm directly betting on an outperform, possibly even so much that it will hurt the shorts 😏 The stock price has been hammered down by 30% this past month, making it seem like all storage customers have collectively disappeared. Profits keep hitting new highs, but the stock price acts like it's doomed — honestly, I don't get it 😆
Look at what the others are doing. Micron $MU posted revenue of $54.2 billion last quarter and is guiding $61.5 billion for the next; Samsung forecasted operating profit of 107.4 trillion KRW for Q3; Western Digital's revenue even grew 55% year-over-year. Western Digital sells hard drives, and even hard drives are selling like this, yet some still claim AI demand for storage is over? TSMC is even more direct: AI demand is very strong, and customers are still increasing orders. Both upstream and downstream are counting money — it can't be that in the same quarter, the neighbors are all having a bumper harvest while Hynix is starving, right? It's all an open secret. It's just a matter of how much they beat expectations.
The market expects Hynix's Q3 operating profit to be around 76–77 trillion KRW, but I think it might exceed 80 trillion. The 40 trillion KRW buyback just finished, and there’s more shareholder returns to come. I think none of these positives have been priced in yet.
I'm betting this earnings report will be an epic beat, and management might spin next year's orders, prices, and long-term contracts into something almost unbelievable. The stock can fall 30% on sentiment, but the profits are real. Once sentiment turns, the harder it fell, the faster it will recover.
Still holding firm, bullish on storage! 😎 This is my most confident bet.
Microsoft earnings report: consensus expectation 4.72, settlement line stuck at 4.82 — I bet No
The rule for this bet is very clear: Microsoft’s GAAP EPS must be above $4.82 this quarter to count as Yes. Currently, Yes is about 75¢, No is 26¢, and the market is 80% confident it will surpass that.
But the consensus I found is around 4.71 to 4.72, about a dime lower than 4.82. Microsoft has beaten expectations for many consecutive quarters, but the "beat" usually only adds a few cents, not a full 10 cents at once.
So I bought No with a small position: if I’m right, it’ll triple or more. 预测市场已经把众议院归属写进价格：Kalshi给出91%，Polymarket给出92%，参议院则是67%与68%。这不是"可能"，而是被定价的既成事实。但多数人把它读成一句粗糙的口号——民主党赢，加密崩——于是为一个根本不存在的坏消息提前恐慌。🎯 真正的误读在于把"立法权"和"传票权"混为一谈。众议院翻蓝，民主党拿到的是传唤、听证、公开羞辱的工具：可以请WLFI的人来作证，可以要求Polymarket交出内部文件，可以拿CZ的赦免问题向司法部施压。然后呢？没有然后。调查制造新闻，新闻制造波动，波动制造恐慌，但没有任何法案会因为一场听证会而死——因为法案本来就不在众议院的议程上。 真正决定估值的是法案的生死，不是国会山的噪音。CLARITY法案——美国加密市场结构法案——9月15日参议院程序性投票49:50，差11票，连辩论都没能开启。没有新的投票日程。JPMorgan说得直白：今年过不了，可能得等到2027年。预测市场更诚实：Kalshi年内通过概率37%，Polymarket为26%，都是全年最低。换句话说，立法红利早已死亡，而且死在民主党赢下众议院之前。市场不是没等到坏消息，而I previously mentioned a viewpoint that crypto-stock trading is definitely the major trend of the future, and this trend is becoming increasingly obvious. Recently, in the exchange's gainers list, 70% of the tokens listed are US stock tokens. The crypto market is becoming more difficult, and the market lacks continuity and smoothness. In the future, the vast majority of the cryptocurrency market will be like this: a $BTC rally only takes a few days to complete, altcoin rallies also finish within a month, and then the overall market falls into endless oscillations. During these oscillations, the entire market lacks liquidity and trend momentum, making it increasingly difficult for retail investors to make money. This is also an important reason why exchanges have started frequently launching crypto-stock trading.
Of course, the cryptocurrency market will not collapse; BTC will still rise. This bull market will reach 150,000 to 200,000, and the leading coins and mainstream coins in major altcoin sectors will still have 5 to 10 times gains. However, most of the time, the market is stagnant. The truly profitable rallies usually occur when most retail investors are shaken out by the endless oscillations, then the market quickly pumps in a short time. When retail investors react and re-enter the market, it falls back into endless oscillations. This is why there have been very few trading stars in the market over the past two years, because the previous kind of one-sided major trend no longer exists, and in oscillating markets, the vast majority of retail investors lose money.Core data analysis of ETH smart money dynamics, why are smart traders still resisting the positions???
Current ETH price is 2320, funding rate 0.0050%. Overview of smart money: a total of 2329 traders, nominal long-short ratio 24.03%.
Long smart money
842 traders, current position 363.55M USDT, average entry price 2821, unrealized P&L -78.4572M USDT, profit ratio 32.06%. Long costs are concentrated near 2821, most long positions are at a floating loss, with 2821 above being a concentrated cost resistance area for longs.
Short smart money
1487 traders, current position 1.51B USDT, average entry price 2307, unrealized P&L -8.481M USDT, profit ratio 59.91%. Short positions are larger in volume, also at a floating loss, with a profit ratio significantly higher than longs, and the current price close to the short entry cost.
Market logic
Price is oscillating narrowly, both longs and shorts are simultaneously in loss, resulting in a double kill scenario. The strong resistance is at 2821 above, with support near short costs; short term is likely to maintain range-bound tug-of-war.
For market reference only, does not constitute any trading advice #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ $BTC $ETH $SOL Microsoft and Google benefit from AI and cloud business growth, with profits expected to exceed expectations; Amazon AWS and advertising business provide growth momentum; Apple's performance is relatively stable, but high valuation may limit post-earnings gains. SK Hynix and SanDisk are driven by AI storage demand and rising storage prices, showing greater earnings elasticity. Robinhood is boosted by increased trading activity, with a higher probability of exceeding expectations. Strategy's performance is greatly affected by Bitcoin price volatility, with the highest uncertainty. Overall, the most optimistic are SK Hynix, SanDisk, and Robinhood. $BTC repeatedly fails to hold the 80,000 level; the nature of this position has already changed!
The weekend low hit 79,100, and in the past two days it has broken below 80,000 several times, each time pulling back but failing to hold. The 80,000 level, which was originally considered support, has gradually turned into a tug-of-war zone between bulls and bears after repeatedly breaking.
ETFs saw a net outflow of $773 million combined last Thursday and Friday, putting selling pressure in plain sight. Coupled with the US stock market correction and the upcoming Federal Reserve decision, short-term funds are cautious. Weekend liquidity is poor, so declines tend to be amplified.
The key is not whether it can instantly pull back to 80,000, but whether there is sustained buying support after the pullback. The rebound has consistently failed to surpass 80,000. Next, look for support between 75,000 and 78,000. Only by holding above 82,000 can selling pressure be considered somewhat eased. For a repeatedly broken level to hold, it can only rely on real, solid buying.
#以太坊草案EIP-8363引争议 Liquidations are accelerating again, with long positions accounting for over 90% in the past hour.
In the past 24 hours, the total network liquidations amounted to approximately $138.79 million, including $80.9 million in long position liquidations and $57.89 million in short position liquidations, with longs rising to 58.3% of the total.
We need to pay attention to short-term changes:
▪️ In the last 12 hours, liquidations totaled $49.52 million, with longs accounting for $33.13 million
▪️ In the last 4 hours, liquidations totaled $19.63 million, with longs accounting for $14.83 million
▪️ In the last 1 hour, liquidations totaled $8.84 million, with longs as high as $8.12 million
The shorter the period, the higher the proportion of long position liquidations. This indicates that although the market has not experienced a sharp plunge, the support below is weakening, and the funds chasing the rally have begun to be continuously liquidated.
By coin:
BTC liquidations are about $31.46 million, with longs accounting for 62.8%;
ETH liquidations are about $23.3 million;
SOL liquidations are about $5.53 million;
ZEC liquidations are about $3.73 million.
The 24-hour heatmap for BTC shows a significant accumulation of liquidation liquidity near the $81,000–$82,000 range above, suggesting that a short-term rebound may first approach this area. However, if it cannot hold above $81,000, the rebound looks more like giving shorts space to re-enter.
I remain temporarily bearish. The focus is no longer on how large the total liquidation amount is, but on the fact that long position liquidations are rapidly concentrating in the most recent hour, which usually means the short-term decline has not yet fully played out.$TIA
Data availability is one of those blockchain infrastructure problems that becomes more important as applications scale. Celestia focuses on separating data availability from execution, giving developers another way to design modular networks. Yet technical flexibility does not automatically translate into lasting token demand. Adoption by independent rollups, sustained data usage, and competition from alternative solutions will help determine whether the model gains durable relevance.