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A return flow of 1.08 billion USD in three days—is it a "real reversal" or a "false move"?
Looking at the ETF data, the Bitcoin spot funds have had net inflows for three consecutive trading days, directly pushing the net inflow for October back to 461 million.
BlackRock and Fidelity absorbed the majority, and the buying was indeed widespread. But one detail is worth pondering: in the past three rounds where Bitcoin rose over 50%, the daily average ETF net inflow was over 200 million USD, while since July this year, the daily average has only been 86 million.
In other words, this return flow is real, but the speed has not yet reached the "ignition" level.
For Ethereum, the ETF single-day net inflow was 29.4 million, with Grayscale contributing the bulk, but on a 30-day scale it is still a net outflow hole. SOL had a single-day net inflow of 10.67 million, the smallest volume, and its confirmation effect on the trend is also the weakest.
Zijin's replenishment is the first step; sustainability is the second. If no action is taken (currently the market pricing maintains a probability of over 90% that interest rates remain unchanged), the real test is just beginning.
This is only a market record and does not constitute investment advice.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
#美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 Until then, BTC’s reaction may be more about positioning and sentiment than a genuine shift in macro conditions.
I’d rather see BTC reclaim $80K and hold it after the initial news-driven move than chase a relief rally that could fade as quickly as it started.
#USIranHormuzTalks 1. Current Position
OKX BTC-USDT around 79,840.5 (13:22, -0.45%); 24H range 79,455.8 ~ 80,849.9; other levels 79,821.7 (12:08), 80,040.2 (09:53)
Last night US stocks surged, but BTC did not follow: S&P +0.70% at 7,676.77, Nasdaq +0.82%, Dow +0.28%, Philly Semiconductor +2.82% (Anthropic filed S-1 igniting AI rally), while BTC remains below 80,000. This is the most important divergence tonight: the risk appetite recovery in stocks has not transmitted to the crypto space.
Three pieces of evidence supporting this divergence: Coinbase premium index has been negative for 33 consecutive days (-0.126%~-0.15%, weak US spot buying); BTC market dominance rose to 57.8%~60.1% (funds are only contracting internally within crypto towards BTC, no new money inflow); Strategy last week (10/19~25) had zero purchases and used $204.9 million to repurchase preferred shares (holding 848,517 units, average price $75,446) — major real buyers have stopped.
#美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 For every 100 KRW of products sold, about 76 KRW remains as operating profit. This is the profit margin SK Hynix reported last quarter. In Q2 2026, the company’s revenue was approximately 79.32 trillion KRW, with operating profit around 60.54 trillion KRW. Looking at a company like this, I would first set aside the "AI demand is very strong" narrative and calculate how much demand has actually impacted the profit statement. At least from these figures, price increases in storage and sales of high-value products have turned into real, tangible profits. Next, the question is how long this high level of profitability can be sustained. SK Hynix will release its Q3 results on October 28. I am more focused on the ramp-up of HBM4: the company previously disclosed that HBM4 began mass shipments in Q2 and plans to continue scaling up in the second half of the year. Whether this growth will be reflected in revenue and profit in Q3 will directly affect market expectations for the following quarters. There is one easily overlooked factor here. Increased orders require capacity expansion; new capacity coming online requires upfront spending. Selling more is obviously good, but if growth demands continuous investment, how much cash remains in the end must also be considered. In August, the company approved about 54 trillion KRW in new factory investments, involving Yongin Y2 and Cheongju M17, which is a multi-year construction plan and not all spent in this quarter. The scale of this investment also makes me want to hear management’s explanation about future demand and capacity plans: which demands are already secured by customers, and which still require gradual investment as the market evolves. So IStarting from the afternoon of October 21, BTC and ETH both moved downward, stopping at noon on the 24th. BTC dropped by 5677 USD, 6.7%, over 68 hours. ETH fell by 244 USD, 9.7%, over 44 hours.
At the stopping points, each left a low point on both sides. BTC was at 79220, ETH at 2282. Both positions still hold now.
The rebound was not urgent. BTC touched 80844 and then retreated, ETH reached 2344 and lost momentum. Based on their respective drops, both only recovered about 25% to 30%, not even reaching 38%.
The low points were tested twice; I compared these two times. BTC's first test was on the 24th, the second in the early morning of the 26th. The second test had 40% less volume and a 20% smaller rebound. ETH dropped more, with nearly 60% less volume and a 40% smaller rebound.
The low points were raised slightly, indicating someone was buying. Each rebound was smaller than the last, showing buyers are not in a hurry.
For now, I treat the upper boundaries as references, not as solid resistance. BTC's 80844 and ETH's 2344 were each touched only once, not enough evidence to block the price. I focus on the closing price.
If the close is above 80844, BTC's recent drop is considered repaired, and we look upward toward the retracement level and the mid-term moving average above. If the close is below 79220, the drop is not yet repaired, and we set another level down based on the drop. ETH uses the same criteria, with numbers replaced by 2344 and 2282.
My current bias is toward the downside. Both are still below the three moving averages, and the rebound hasn't even reached 38%. This bias is easy to change; it only requires the two upper levels to close above.
Finally, a few off-topic remarks.
Using the same rules, in backtesting I can accept a 30% retracement without emotion. With real money, I want to close positions after just a 3% drop. The rules haven't changed a bit, but I still want to exit during the toughest periods. So now, when I judge whether something will succeed, I first see if I would act when feeling uncomfortable.Looking at OKX's earnings season forecast targets this week, wow, they're all top tech companies.
The big players are busy figuring out how to expand capacity and boost profits, while I'm here calculating how to maximize the returns on my 553 XP points, climbing from Growth Helper to the Expert Leaderboard~
There are three days left until the weekly leaderboard closes on the 29th, so I'll pick two tech giants from the weekly leaderboard to study carefully and try to grab some of the weekly leaderboard bonus pool.
First up, SK Hynix.
My judgment is straightforward: the earnings report will most likely beat expectations, and it’s almost a sure thing.
The logic is so simple it’s almost boring. HBM capacity is sold out, DRAM prices are still rising, and the storage sector has long shifted from a cutthroat price war to a seller’s market. A manufacturer sitting at the fattest spot in the supply chain—if their earnings report looks bad now, that would be real news. So the question isn’t whether they can make money, but how much they make.
Next, Robinhood.
My judgment is also that it will likely beat, but this time it depends on whether the crypto market shows some respect.
Crypto overall has been trending up these past few months, retail sentiment hasn’t faded, and options are lively. Robinhood’s business model relies on taking a cut; the more people in the arena and the more active the betting, the better it is for them. So revenue, especially from crypto and options, is very likely solid. The HBM trade is becoming a capacity allocation story, not just an AI demand story.
When memory inventory gets this tight, chipmakers face a choice: prioritize high margin HBM or supply conventional DRAM. That competition can push memory prices higher, but it also makes supply normalization the biggest risk to the trade.
SK Hynix has the advantage today, but Samsung's progress shows that leadership is not guaranteed.
#SamsungQ3ProfitOutlook Why is it that the longer you research a coin, the harder it becomes to cut your losses?
The most dangerous kind of research is when you uncover more and more problems with the project, yet your reasons for holding on become increasingly justified.
Before buying, you look at the team, revenue, unlock schedules, and valuation; after getting stuck, the team selling coins is called improving liquidity, user decline is called an industry downturn, and breaking support is called a shakeout by the main players.
You use all your research skills, except to test whether you bought wrong.
There’s a psychological account hidden here: having spent so much time and gone through so much information, selling now would mean all that research was for nothing. So besides the purchase cost, there’s an additional layer of reluctance to give up.
But the market doesn’t pay you for research time. Understanding a project doesn’t mean its token is worth holding: business growth doesn’t necessarily bring token demand, and the money raised by the project won’t automatically be shared with token holders.
A practical self-check is: if you were empty-handed today, with the same information and price, would you still want to buy? If the answer is no, you should reassess your position and not let “I’ve held it for so long” make the decision for you.
Remember: research should clarify your exit conditions. If in the end you only have more and more reasons to hold, you may have stopped being an investor and become a free PR agent for the project team.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ I think SK Hynix's Q3 might fall short of expectations, mainly because people may be overestimating HBM's profit-making ability. No matter how many orders there are, actual delivery matters, and ramping up production and new lines could still push costs higher. If the regular DRAM and NAND businesses perform just average, the overall profit might not be as good as imagined. The worst thing in earnings season is when a company makes a decent profit, but the market responds with: "Is that it?" Many people no longer remember the name Arbistar, the Spanish Ponzi scheme that collapsed in 2020. Today, the Spanish police released news that wallets associated with it before and after the collapse transferred over 1.1 billion USD worth of Bitcoin. When I see such news in a bear market, I always take a closer look.
On the market, BTC is now hovering around 79,700, with a 24-hour low of 79,455, missing the 80,000 mark again. The fee rate is 0.01%, with neither panic nor rush to accumulate; the contract open interest is still over 2.6 billion USD, and no major withdrawals are seen.
My view is that breaking 80,000 itself is not scary; what's scary is if it breaks and no one catches it. There is still volume supporting below for now. If it really crashes to a new low, that’s not a signal to bottom-fish, it’s a different matter. Just watch and keep your hands still.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 This $SNDK long position, 75x leverage, opened at 1235.7, current price 1286.6, floating profit 308.93%.
Three numbers govern this position: buffer 3.95%, resistance 1300, target 1350.
Buffer 3.95% — if it retraces 3.95%, this 308% profit resets to zero. With 75x leverage, there is no margin for error, no room to "wait and see." It's 0.38 percentage points thicker than the evening's 3.57% because it moved 5.1 points further, not because my judgment is more accurate. Positions with thin cushions have no right to talk about the big picture, only about rules.
Resistance at 1300 is 13.4 points (1.04%) overhead. This integer level is critical — if broken, 1350 can be expected; if not, this is the short-term top. 1280 has long been established (6.6 points below), but holding steady does not mean it can hold; a pullback confirmation is standard. If it falls back, this breakout must be questioned.
Review: Last night 1269, 202%, 2.69% → Evening 1281.5, 278%, 3.57% → Now 1286.6, 308.93%, 3.95%. The cushion is gradually thickening, but its nature hasn't changed — still a thin cushion position.
Trading discipline: protect principal and push up, no further exposure expansion. Once over 300%, half should be taken off the table, base position waits for 1300 confirmation. No adding positions, no holding losing positions. If it holds 1300, watch for 1350; if it falls back to 1235.7, admit the mistake. $BTC $ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 There is a rather scary statistic: among the top traders on the four perpetual platforms Hyperliquid, Lighter, dYdX, and Pacifica, only 9% are long positions.
My first reaction was that it was another panic hype. Checking the original data, it’s the combined top 100 accounts by 7-day profit, with longs at $324 million versus shorts at $3.11 billion. The short positions are more than nine times the value of the longs; the numbers are not fabricated. But I’ve seen the same metric flip from 94% short to 80% long within 24 hours, a swing of 74 percentage points, so I treat it as a thermometer, not a steering wheel.
HYPE is now around 77.8, fluctuating between 76.7 and 80.6 in 24 hours, moving sideways enough to make people sleepy.
I’ve learned my lesson: the more I look at this data, the fewer trades I place, and my wallet stays more secure.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Many people shout "recovery" when they see ETF inflows, but after reviewing the data, I just want to say: this is not a recovery market at all, it's a single-plank bridge market📊
Let's sort out the capital flow: In the past two days, BTC spot ETFs had a total net outflow of 774 million USD, the selling pressure has made the market very uncomfortable. Yesterday finally saw an inflow, a single-day net inflow of 110.3 million USD, but this money almost entirely came from BlackRock's IBIT, while the other ETF varieties basically remained flat with no capital movement.
What does this mean?
It's not a collective bottom-fishing by institutions, but just a single test move by a leading giant.
The volume is also insufficient to support a reversal: counting the whole of October, BTC spot ETFs still had a net outflow of 202 million USD, the gap remains.
ETH is even quieter, with yesterday's ETF net outflow of 88.6 million USD, and ETHA alone outflowed 104.7 million, the selling pressure continues to release.
The market also confirms this logic: BTC is now stuck at 79,700, continuously pressured below the 80,000 threshold.
The capital bleeding rate has slowed, but the market structure is far from repaired.
In summary: before the FOMC announcement, this wave is merely a test, not a counterattack.
Do not mistake IBIT's single purchase as a signal for a new trend start.
Coincidentally, ZECW and UAI in the group successfully captured gains this wave, again confirming the current market is severely differentiated, broad rallies have not arrived, only local opportunities can be seized.
The profit and loss calendar is here; the premise of stable gains is understanding the true and false signals of capital, not being fooled by short-term single data points into jumping in. I often look at on-chain prediction markets and first flip through the settlement rules, with the odds reversed at the end. When trading crypto, you can always argue about whether it's expensive or cheap, but when predicting an event, you have to clearly define what conditions count as the event occurring.
Stablecoin settlement and recording on-chain are quite crypto. But the odds are just judgments expressed by participants using money; if funds crowd on one side, it doesn't necessarily mean it's closer to the truth.
Especially when the question is vaguely written, I get a bit distracted: the money is on-chain, but if there's a dispute in the end, who will make the final call?Binance will remove 12 spot trading pairs on October 30. I counted them one by one, and they are all /BTC pairs—AAVE/BTC, TAO/BTC, ICP/BTC, PENDLE/BTC, XAUT/BTC, etc. There isn't a single USDT pair.
This detail is more interesting than the delisting itself. What's being cut isn't the coins, but the pairs that no one trades: altcoins paired with Bitcoin have had their liquidity drained long ago, so they're just placeholders now.
AAVE spot is currently at 132.96, fluctuating between 129.5 and 138.8 in the last 24 hours. The coin is fine; it's the trading pairs that are dead.
I also have a few BTC pairs in my wallet that I haven't touched for years; the exchange cleaned them up before I did.
#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 Six categories clearly not to buy tonight
Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Intel, Coinbase, Strategy, Caterpillar, Mastercard, Merck — all releasing earnings reports between 10/29 and 10/30 early morning (Alphabet confirmed after market on 10/28, conference call early morning 10/29). Opening new positions tonight = directly betting on the event.
Meta: The pricing discount for the $95 billion equity financing has not been finalized, and "NVIDIA investing $3 billion in Meta" is a circular transaction narrative (the market has already expressed clear doubts), diluting while buying each other — direction uncertain.
New cloud (CRWV/NBIS/IREN/HUT/RIOT): Musk warns "over 200 companies face massive death and consolidation," CoreWeave’s 2032 bond yield once near 15%.
Defense/Aerospace (LMT etc.): Lockheed reported earnings on 10/22 (revenue $20.711 billion +11%, EPS 7.97, backlog $291.984 billion record high, raised full-year guidance), closed last night +5.13% at 635.2, about -7.7% from 52-week high 688.55, better to wait for a pullback near 600 than chase highs.
Leveraged/inverse ETFs, single stock options (volatility structure on the eve of decisions is most unfavorable for holding leverage).
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #The October FOMC rate decision will be announced this week
The FOMC opens at midnight on the 29th, how much longer can this hawkish stance from Waller last? How should AI and BTC position themselves?
Brothers, the FOMC is at 2 AM tonight, and the market has already priced in a "hold steady" — rate futures show over 90% probability of no change in October. But the real drama isn’t in the decision itself, it’s in Waller’s speech at 2:30 AM.
Is Waller hawkish? Most likely yes.
This guy was famously hawkish during his Fed days. Although he’s been softer in words recently, with inflation expectations soaring to 4.7%, he can’t afford to sound dovish now. Bloomberg put it bluntly: Waller’s dilemma is to reassure the market "we’re still fighting inflation" while explaining why there’s no rate hike this time. Translation: hawkish words, steady hands, a December hike is the script.
How to position AI?
The Nasdaq closed at 26,169 yesterday, up 0.82%. But if Waller stays tough on the 29th, tech stocks — these long-duration assets — will be hit first. My strategy: don’t chase before the meeting, wait for the dip from the 2:30 AM sell-off. The AI narrative isn’t broken; what’s broken is valuation sensitivity to rates.
What about BTC? Current price 79,756, can’t even hold above 80,000. Classic "playing dead before the meeting." BTC is now the most sensitive to macro liquidity; if Waller’s hawkish, 78,000 is seen; if he softens, 82,000 gets tested. But don’t bet on direction, wait until he finishes speaking before moving.
The decision itself is no drama, the press conference is the real thunder.The number of whale shorts keeps piling up, yet ZEC remains pinned above $1200. This round, I'm siding with the bulls first.
Current price is 1274, 24-hour low is 1211. The perpetual funding rate is negative, at -0.0033% for the first tier, meaning shorts pay longs every 8 hours, with $150 million in contract positions open. With such heavy short pressure, the price just won't go down.
There's also something tonight: a Zcash co-founder proposed stopping the automatic community funding plan, saying the pool already has over $125 million. According to short logic, a coin starting to shrink should be hammered down more, but it can't be pushed down.
When the market can't be pushed down, I won't say much; let's first see how long the $1200 line holds.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Today, Bitcoin and Ethereum have been fluctuating all day, with volatility even less than the weekend's market. Bitcoin has been trying to hold steady at 80,000, but every time it reaches the 80,000 mark, it falls back. Is the pressure really that strong?
According to Bitcoin ETF funds data on October 26, there was a net inflow of $110.3 million that day.
However, net fund inflow alone cannot determine an upward trend. Currently, it is just a phase of returning funds, not a sustained inflow. Last Thursday and Friday saw relatively large outflows, totaling $774 million. We still need to pay attention to the subsequent ETF fund inflow situation.
On October 26, Ethereum's spot ETF had an outflow of $88.6 million that day.
The fund situation is not optimistic and is completely different from Bitcoin's. Ethereum ETF funds are still continuously flowing out. Although there have been net inflows during this period, they are negligible—millions when inflowing, tens of millions to hundreds of millions when outflowing. It is a completely different situation from Bitcoin.
The market uncertainty is currently high, and many funds prioritize allocating to Bitcoin rather than Ethereum or other high-risk products. From the current perspective, Ethereum's trend is relatively weak. Only when the fund situation improves will its rebound be stronger; otherwise, the upward momentum will remain weak. $PUMP
Regarding meme coin dumping, I only recognize one thing: whether what's moved is unrealized profit or principal.
This time it's the former. The Solana trader who moved 300 million PUMP tokens to Binance has cumulatively cashed out $8.23 million on-chain, depositing in batches over 6 days. At the current price of 0.00414, that's about 1.24 million. PUMP is hovering around 0.00414 today, down over 2% in 24 hours, with a low of 0.00409; Binance spot prices are similar. The money has been settled and moved out, which is different from a panic sell and run.
I've seen too many cases where dumping is called a shakeout; this time it's reversed, unrealized profits exiting are being called a dump.
Whether it comes back after moving depends on his next move. I'll first note the destination of this 1.24 million.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 BTC is currently at 80,300, with 68.8% of accounts long, while Binance's active sellers account for 68.9% — positions are holding, but money is selling. Long liquidations account for 77%, 79,100–79,200 is the next dense liquidation zone, and short positions above 81,300 have even more fuel. $BTC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $AAVE
On October 30, Binance will remove 12 spot trading pairs. I counted them one by one, and they are all /BTC pairs—AAVE/BTC, TAO/BTC, ICP/BTC, PENDLE/BTC, XAUT/BTC, etc. There isn't a single USDT pair.
This detail is more interesting than the delisting itself. What's being cut isn't the coins, but the pairs that no one trades: altcoins paired with Bitcoin have had their liquidity drained long ago, and are just occupying space.
AAVE spot is currently at 132.96, fluctuating between 129.5 and 138.8 in 24 hours. The coin is fine; what's dying are the trading pairs.
I also have a few BTC pairs in my wallet that I haven't touched for years, but the exchange is cleaning them up before I do.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The market in one sentence: big players are playing dead, retail investors are getting hit, and ETH bulls are still stubbornly holding on.
BTC is grinding back and forth between 79,800 and 80,000, just like you five minutes before clocking out—sitting at your desk but your mind is already gone. The retail long-short ratio has dropped to 0.4861; after massive liquidations, bulls don’t even have the strength to be optimistic; the big players’ long-short ratio is 0.77, flat longs watching, bears dominating, clearly signaling "I won’t dump, but I won’t catch either." There’s still a perpetual sell order of about $19.6 million hanging at 79,850 above, like a ceiling with a sign saying "Don’t look up." $ETH
ETH is even more conflicted. The price hovers around 2,300, but the long-short ratio remains at 2.46, indicating bullish exposure hasn’t been fully cleared. In the past 24 hours, ETH bulls have been liquidated for $17.47 million, while bears only $10.2 million; bulls have taken most of the pain. The funding rate is still the highest at 0.01%, bulls losing money while paying bears—truly "paying to get hit." Even worse, a certain whale’s nearly $400 million long position has a liquidation price at 2,181; last night’s low was 2,282, just $30 away from being taken out, forcing an emergency margin top-up to stay alive.$BTC
On the capital side, BTC saw a net inflow of $171 million in 24 hours, while ETH only $35.72 million; big players clearly favor BTC
Before the meeting, volume shrinks and the market grinds; big players lie flat and won’t catch the knife, retail investors shouldn’t bear the liquidation line for whales. If you’re itching to trade, wait for the FOMC to set the direction first. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 A tale of two extremes! U.S. economic data is torn apart, is the "lifeline" for BTC bulls here? Just now, the U.S. September durable goods orders data was released, showing an extremely split "ice and fire" picture! This sends a very subtle macro signal to the crypto market, which is desperately defending the $80,000 level. Let's look at how contradictory these three sets of data are: First, the month-over-month durable goods orders excluding defense surged to 2.2% (previously only 0.3%), far exceeding expectations! The data label directly signals "bearish for gold and silver." This indicates that the hard demand from civilian and industrial sectors remains strong, and the U.S. economy still appears "hot" on the surface. Second, durable goods orders excluding transportation rose only 0.5% (below expectations). Third, the most fatal blow: durable goods orders excluding aircraft and non-defense capital goods (core capital goods) recorded only 0.5%, far below the expected 0.7% and the previous 1.6%. Expert perspective breaks down the macro drama behind this: Don't be fooled by that 2.2% superficial prosperity! In economics, "core capital goods orders" are the most critical leading indicator measuring companies' real investment intentions (CapEx). It plunged sharply from 1.6% to 0.5%, indicating that under the extreme pressure of high interest rates, U.S. companies simply dare not spend money to expand production, and the forward momentum of the real economy is accelerating its decline. What does this mean for the Federal Reserve? It means the confidence for "no rate cuts and even rate hikes" is being drained. Companies not investing means future employment and inflation will inevitably cool down. This is for the struggling risk assetsBTC buy orders are futures limit orders, ETH whales are 5% away from liquidation, SanDisk is supported by AI narrative before earnings
Three assets, three different kinds of "strength"
$BTC buy orders may not be spot
Between $78,000 and $79,000, BTC has over $80 million in buy orders concentrated, but a significant portion comes from futures limit orders, not spot purchases, and can be withdrawn at any time. More importantly, exchange stablecoin reserves have dropped to $60.62 billion, the lowest in nearly 12 months, meaning the "ammunition" for bottom-fishing is shrinking
$ETH $2,180, the life-or-death line for a $214 million whale
Down 13.2% since October. One whale holds 93,184 ETH, a $214 million leveraged long position, and after adding 5.67 million USDC, the liquidation price dropped to about $2,180. Spot ETH ETFs saw $225 million outflows this week, with sustained buying pressure fading
$SNDK before earnings, AI narrative reignites
Pre-market rose to about $1,268, Anthropic filed IPO documents reigniting expectations for AI chips and storage demand, storage sector rose broadly pre-market. Q1 earnings are the test point, market expects revenue of $10.72 billion, focus on NAND pricing and enterprise storage demand
Summary: For BTC, watch if the $78,000-$79,000 limit orders convert to real trades; for ETH, watch the $2,180 whale defense line; for SanDisk, watch if earnings can sustain the AI narrative. The quality of buy orders is more worth monitoring than quantity
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Will the growth of Robinhood's trading business continue?Has the $DOT cross-chain vision already generated sufficient token demand? Technical interoperability needs to be validated through developers, applications, and fees; the number of ecosystem projects alone is insufficient to create buying pressure. High interest rate expectations will depress the valuation of long-term growth assets. If on-chain usage and development activity continue to improve and drive token locking, the outlook can be revised upward; if the ecosystem remains fragmented and users and fees do not increase, the vision remains underdelivered.Yesterday BTC touched 80,000 twice. Both times it was pushed back down, closing at 79,842. The strange thing isn’t the price. It only moved 0.8% all day, but the 24-hour trading volume surged 84%, reaching 68.4 billion. The price stayed put while the volume doubled. Someone is rotating positions. I can clearly see the selling side. Last week, BTC spot ETF inflows were 1.075 billion from Monday to Wednesday, then 636 million out on Thursday—the largest single-day outflow since June—and another 138 million out on Friday. Net for the week, that leaves 301 million inflow, a positive number, but looking at the week as a whole, it’s a line that surged up then fell back down. ETH is even more straightforward, with four consecutive weeks of net outflows, last week another 221 million out, totaling over 1.2 billion in a month. On the buying side, I found nothing. Looking downward, there’s no sign of buyers stepping in either. Bitfinex’s assessment marks 79,821 as a potential liquidation trigger level, and below that, the market uses 77,600 as a reference price. If it really falls, the first alarm will sound below 79,000, where there’s no substantial buy support. There’s an even tougher factor explaining why 80,000 can’t hold. Glassnode’s report last week noted that a recent batch of buyers’ cost basis is between 80,000 and 81,500. This group is currently all at unrealized losses; once the price returns above 80,000, their first thought is to break even and exit. So those two surges yesterday were reallyRipple has obtained the U.S. National Trust Bank license, and $XRP only rose 1% overnight.
The OCC gave the final approval last night; it was conditionally approved back in December last year, so this counts as the official launch.
I reviewed the official text, and the bank's responsibilities are clearly stated: managing the reserves of RLUSD and providing custody.
Throughout the document, the letters XRP barely appear.
The most direct beneficiaries are Ripple and its $2.5 billion stablecoin.
If you treat this as a major positive for XRP after waiting for years, I'm a bit hesitant to buy in.
The company is increasingly like a bank, and the coin price doesn't necessarily follow; last week it was at 1.38, now it's 1.31.
I don't hold XRP, so I just watch this kind of news for entertainment and don't chase it.
If we really talk about positive developments landing, the price at least needs to reclaim last week's high.
Do you think the company getting the license counts as a positive for the coin?
$XRP $BTC
#Ripple获美国国家信托银行最终批准 #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Rate cut? Don't even think about it. The real suspense for the Fed this week is: will there be another rate hike in December?
At 2 AM Beijing time on October 29, the October FOMC rate decision will be announced. Let's look at some numbers first:
1️⃣ Current rate is 3.75%-4.00%, with a 25bp hike in September, the first rate increase since 2023
2️⃣ Rate futures price in about a 92% probability of no change this week
3️⃣ Latest CNBC survey: 93% of respondents expect a pause this week, but 76% expect a hike in December
4️⃣ September CPI year-on-year is 3.7%, with US oil around $101 at the time of the survey, inflation pressure remains
5️⃣ 10-year US Treasury yield fluctuates near the 5% mark
My view: "No change" this week is basically priced in; the real variable is what Waller says about December during the press conference. If the tone is hawkish, risk assets like BTC and ETH may face short-term pressure; if the tone is dovish, a "sell the rumor, buy the fact" style rebound wouldn't be surprising. Personally, I'm cautious and will wait for clear direction after the meeting, no chasing.
Just my personal opinion, not investment advice.
Do you think this will be a "hawkish pause" or a "dovish pause"? Take a side in the comments 👇#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
HBM4 started mass shipments in Q2 and is in the early ramp-up stage in Q3. The main customer is Nvidia's Rubin platform, but GPU platform debugging delays have caused Q3 HBM4 shipments to fall below the market's previous optimistic expectations. It is still in the small batch validation and small order stage, with limited revenue share. The boost to profitability is limited. Bitcoin is slightly bearish in the short term, with the price sticking close to the recent upper boundary, but active trades are selling downward. Ethereum is almost at the upper boundary, with active buying and selling nearly balanced; I expect consolidation in the next few hours. Bitcoin's low in the past 12 hours was 79,505.00, and the high was 80,372.30. Bitcoin's price is near the recent range's upper boundary, but among large active trades, there is a cluster of reducing longs, increasing shorts, and switching from long to short, while buying is only scattered reducing shorts and increasing longs. Being near the upper boundary does not mean true strength; while prices are pushed up, some are closing longs and adding shorts. Public opinions are bullish, but words and actions don't match. I see this more as a rally meeting resistance, slightly bearish in the short term. Next, I will watch if the price near the upper boundary can be supported by buyers. Ethereum's low in the past 12 hours was 2,297.82, and the high was 2,334.00. Ethereum's price is almost at the range's upper boundary, but active trades are nearly balanced, with some adding shorts. Without a clear directional sample, I won't force a direction and will consider short-term consolidation. The difference from Bitcoin is that buying hasn't clearly retreated but hasn't taken control either; we wait for trades to reveal strength or weakness. Next, watch if active selling continues to pressure the price, especially near the upper boundary; if active buying overtakes selling and the price holds above the upper boundary, I will no longer be bearish.On the eve of the FOMC, BTC repeatedly tugged within the narrow range of 79,400–80,800. The daily MACD negative value continues to expand, with the price suppressed below the middle Bollinger Band, but every time 79,400–79,600 is pushed down, it is bought back. This is not a "bottoming out completed" but a stalemate where bulls and bears "are unwilling to reveal their cards first" before the interest rate decision. What truly determines the direction is not tonight's interest rate result, but what Walsh says about "December" at the press conference.
$BTC $ETH $DOOD #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 MicroStrategy $STRC, when this big-eyed guy stops, the market's sky changes. This is not an ordinary shakeout; it's a real supply cut by big money. Strategy not only didn't buy last week but also used over 200 million USD to repurchase preferred shares. What does this mean? It means even the most loyal bulls have to account for interest in a high-yield environment, prioritizing cash flow survival. The big coin $BTC dropped below 80,000 in response, a normal reaction to capital withdrawal. Don't expect infinite bullets from the sky to save you. The heavy trapped positions above mean rushing in now is like catching a flying knife. Long-term bullish is fine, but short-term longs are just asking for a beating. If you short in the short term, you must set stop losses properly. Shorting is shorting; never stubbornly hold without stop loss, or you're just giving away money.
Looking at $ETH Ethereum, BitMine is increasing holdings and heavily staking, paying billions in interest annually. They buy Ethereum now purely as a fixed-income asset, aiming for passive cash flow, not expecting an ecological explosion. Ethereum is already weak with no capital support. If the big coin tests lower support, this hopeless follower will fall the hardest. Control your hands and never catch a flying knife.
The macro backdrop is clear: US Treasury yields hang overhead, and the high-yield environment suppresses risk appetite. Although oil prices have fallen, inflation fundamentals remain, and there is no fresh capital willing to enter the market. Even large institutions are shrinking defensively; retail investors should not be cannon fodder. #Strategy暂停增持，Strive与BitMine扩大储备 Major turning point in the US-Iran situation this week — a real diplomatic window is emerging between the US and Iran, and the Israeli election is the biggest political variable determining whether this window can quickly turn into an agreement. Currently, based on multiple sources, the US-Iran situation has reached a critical variable stage: 1. Iran has expressed willingness to accept a shortened timeline. Previously, Iran proposed a 7-day plan to open the Strait, and last week Munir's visit to Tehran brought a plan to shorten the timeline. Iran now says it can accept this but still sets conditions. Clearly, Iran can "allow time but not conditions." #US-Iran discuss Hormuz opening plan, oil prices fall. The move to "shorten the timeline" may mean Trump wants to quickly push US-Iran negotiations at a certain stage, open the Strait, and lower crude oil prices. I believe this stage could be between October 27 and November 3. 2. Senior security officials from Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE visited Tehran to guarantee conditions for the US. 3. China officially intervenes to mediate the US-Iran situation. On the 27th, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced it will send envoys to visit the Middle East and surrounding countries to strengthen communication. 4. October 27 is the official voting day in Israel. Reuters reported that today's voting is the fastest in nearly 50 years in Israel. This election essentially decides Netanyahu's political survival. Tonight, the focus is on whether Netanyahu's camp can secure more than 61 seats. If enough, Netanyahu's re-election is basically hopeful. Once Netanyahu wins, then for$SOXS 336.35%. This is the unrealized profit ratio. But the real factors managing this position are not this number, but three others.
First: 15.55%. This is the buffer — the 7.12 points from the current price 45.8 to the cost 52.92, converted into a percentage increase equals 15.55%. If it rises 15.55%, this 336% resets to zero. Note that this is different from the actual drop of 13.45%: the drop is calculated from the opening price, while breakeven is calculated from the current price. The deeper the drop, the harder it is to break even.
Second: 0.25. This is the relative displacement increment since the afternoon. Afternoon was 46.05 with unrealized profit 324.54%; now 45.8 with 336.35%. It dropped 0.25 points, but unrealized profit increased by 11.81 points. This is not because the judgment got more accurate, but because it moved further on its own. Incidentally, the integer level of 46 has officially been broken downward.
Third: 1.74%. This is the distance to 45. If it breaks, 44 is the first target; if not, 45 is the floor for this wave. Note that 46 just broke but hasn’t been confirmed yet; a pullback to confirm is standard.
With these three numbers laid out, the operation is clear: push to breakeven, take profit on the main position, wait for confirmation at 45 on the bottom position. No adding positions, no holding losing positions, no fighting to the end. If it breaks below 45, look to 44; if it recovers 52.92, exit. Do nothing in between. $BTC $ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 A nominal short position of $832,000 appeared on Hyperliquid, but what is truly worth being cautious about is not the direction of this position, but the systematic distortion in how it is being interpreted. This large short on $HYPE has been widely spread as a "whale bearish signal," but nominal contract value never equals margin. Without the three key pieces of information—leverage multiple, total account position, and hedging structure—no matter how eye-catching the single amount is, it cannot prove which side the trader is actually betting on. The most common mistake in the market is confusing "closing an old position" with "establishing a reverse position." Closing a short means buying back the previously sold position, not opening a new long; closing a long only reduces the existing long exposure, not opening a new short. Exiting and reverse positioning are two completely different actions. Once mixed up in dissemination, the "signal" readers see is no longer what actually happened on-chain. 📉 This leads to a more worthy thesis for discussion: in a narrative environment dominated by perpetual contracts, the speed of position data dissemination has outpaced the accuracy of its semantics, and the market is pricing in this "translation loss." As the core asset of the Hyperliquid ecosystem, $HYPE’s price is naturally more sensitive to on-chain whale movements. Any misinterpreted large position can amplify short-term volatility, but the informational content of such volatility is far less than it appears on the surface. The truly confirmable signal is not in the single amount, but in the structure: if subsequent disclosures of leverage and total account position appear, or if the address continues to increase exposure in the same direction, only then does it constitute a trackable signal.Durable goods growth, I see interest rate transmission
I temporarily view BTC as oscillating; whether strong data can create pressure still awaits price confirmation
OKX Economic Calendar update on October 27 at 20:30: US September durable goods orders month-on-month 1.8%, expected 1.5%, detailed original text still to be verified
I regard this as a clue of demand resilience; if it drives US Treasury yields higher, it may suppress crypto valuations, which remains a transmission to be verified
The opposite evidence is that growth improvement may also boost risk appetite, so strong data should not be directly equated with BTC decline
OKX BTC/USDT spot closed at 80250 at 20:30, range from 16:30 to 20:30 was 79505–80250 USDT
Only if the 15-minute close breaks below 79505 and the next candle does not recover, I confirm bearish bias; breaking above 80250 and holding invalidates the bearish bias within the above range #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC $ETH $DOOD $BZ Oil prices have finally fallen from their highs, which in my view is a very good bottom-fishing signal for the US stock market📈#闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？
Previously, the biggest burden weighing on technology and storage sectors was the inflation panic caused by the continuous rise in crude oil prices. As long as oil prices remain high, the market will keep worrying about inflation rebounding, making it difficult for Powell to signal a dovish stance, and high interest rate expectations firmly suppress growth stock valuations.
Now that oil prices have fallen, it means a major inflation variable has eased, leaving room for a more accommodative tone in upcoming rate decisions and PCE data.
A series of major events are lined up next: Powell's press conference, US GDP, core PCE, and earnings reports from Hynix $SKHYNIX and SanDisk $SNDK.
If macro inflation expectations cool down with falling oil prices, Powell speaks dovishly, and US Treasury yields decline, it will be a double positive for interest rate-sensitive storage stocks like SOXL, Micron, and SanDisk—fundamentals and macro factors resonating together.
But we must be clear: this is not a free pass to blindly bottom-fish. This recent drop in oil prices could be just a short-term relief, with Middle East geopolitical tensions potentially flaring up again at any time; and if PCE data unexpectedly rises, previous optimistic expectations will be instantly dashed.
We are currently in a window of expectation repair, better suited for buying on dips rather than chasing highs aggressively. The storage sector’s AI HBM demand logic remains intact, and the retreat in oil prices is paving the way for the market.
With each shoe dropping, the conditions for this storage rebound are slowly coming together.When oil prices rise, large holders who stockpile SOL are the first to clear their positions. As oil prices climb this round, the first thing to be recalculated is the interest rate cut scenario. $SOL is a high beta coin most sensitive to interest rate expectations and has historically reacted the fastest. With Middle East supply risks resurfacing, funds that previously bet on rate cuts have to reprice their positions.
SkyAI has completely cleared over 2 million SOL from its holdings, leaving about $223.8 million in cash on the books. Such a large coin holding turning in the same direction is itself a signal.
Where the money goes is even more worth watching—up to about $201.3 million is used for stock buybacks and stock subscriptions at $3 per share. Nearly 90% of the cash is withdrawn from the crypto space and moved into its own stock.
On one hand, large holders are cashing out and exiting; on the other, oil prices are rising amid inflation expectations. Currently, SOL lacks any catalyst to move independently, so both the funding and macro factors are aligned in the same direction.
#中东原油供应风险再起，油价持续走强 In the past three days, BTC has hovered above 80,000 without moving, and the whole market has had only one topic: the Federal Reserve early Thursday morning. Everyone is waiting for that moment—as if once the clock strikes, the direction will automatically emerge.
This afternoon, the market gave the answer in advance.
BTC broke below 80,000, currently at 79,674; ETH is clinging to the edge of 2,300, at 2,305; SOL is the hardest hit, losing triple digits directly, at 99.7.
Ironically, during the three days of sideways movement, the phrase "the longer the consolidation, the stronger the breakout" was repeatedly quoted, and everyone assumed the breakout would be upward.
But what will happen on the fourth day of consolidation?
Those wanting to buy the dip had already maxed out their positions three days ago; they are now the market's existing holders, not new entrants. Those wanting to short were cut early by the dull knife of consolidation and exited the market. What remains is the most dangerous group: they look at the candlesticks and think, "It’s been sideways for so long, how much lower can it go?" So they heavily bet, confidently waiting for Thursday’s data to wrap things up for them.
The market specializes in taking in this kind of confidence.
Breaking below 80,000 is not just crossing a round number in price; it also shatters the psychological defense line of "how much lower can it go?" Once the defense line breaks, below lies the liquidation map: BTC has two long positions lying at 79,200 and 78,800, and even bigger ones stacked at 77,200 and 76,600; ETH’s are lined up at 2,282 and 2,242; SOL’s 9.69 million long positions hang just above 98.
The main event early Thursday morning will not be canceled because of today’s drop. But the market’s direction has never grown out of the news; it grows out of liquidation prices.
The news is just the finger pulling the trigger. And the gun barrel has long been aimed at those fully invested, waiting for the data. Before the rate decision on the 29th, I am more cautious about another dip but not ruling out a rebound.
After 18:00, BTC briefly dipped to 79,505, ETH dropped to around 2,298, then both pulled back. The rebound is not weak, but the hourly charts for both coins still haven't reclaimed the upper resistance. Because there are buyers when prices fall and the pullback doesn't hold, I am not in a hurry to conclude which side has won yet.
Spot snapshot at 20:12 Beijing time: BTC around 79,900, ETH around 2,315. My main judgment is: before the rate decision announcement on the 29th, still expect a retest of tonight's lows. BTC target 79,505–79,455, ETH target 2,301–2,293; this is a zone formed by new lows, 24-hour lows, and 4-hour previous lows, not just arbitrary round numbers. If prices truly break below, the lows could be deeper than this support layer; but if one or two hourly candles quickly recover, I prefer to see a short dip followed by a rebound rather than a continuous decline.
This judgment has boundaries: if BTC closes hourly above 80,175 and ETH above 2,326, and the pullback holds, my bearish bias is invalidated; if two consecutive hourly closes fall below 79,455 and 2,293, the "short dip" view must be withdrawn. The meeting may amplify volatility but cannot be used to explain today's decline. To say the market has stabilized, I want to see a clear full daily candle reclaiming lost ground and not giving it back afterward.
$BTC $ETH For conditional observation only, be aware of volatility risks. #US-Iran discuss Hormuz Strait reopening plan, oil prices fall
Will this impact the macroeconomy and cause $BTC to drop?
The drop in oil prices due to expectations of the Hormuz Strait reopening does not directly negatively affect BTC; from a macro perspective, it is marginally positive but insufficient to reverse the current weakness.
The transmission path is: oil price decline → easing inflation pressure → relaxation of Federal Reserve rate hike constraints. The September CPI energy component rose 20.4% year-on-year, with high oil prices being a key driver of persistent inflation. If the strait truly reopens and oil prices continue to fall, it will create conditions for the Fed to pause rate hikes later. However, the Fed is very likely to take a "hawkish pause" in October, with about an 80% chance of a rate hike in December; the policy turning point has not yet arrived.
Currently, BTC's main pressure is risk aversion sentiment, not oil prices. On October 27, BTC still hovered below $80,000, with traders awaiting inflation, GDP data, and the Fed decision. Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of about $314 million in October.
More importantly, the US-Iran negotiations themselves are fragile. Iran previously denied nearing an agreement, causing oil prices to reverse sharply. If talks break down and oil prices rebound, macro pressures will increase again. In short, the oil price decline is a "nice-to-have" for BTC but unlikely to be a "lifeline" before Fed uncertainties are resolved.Staring at the screen for a long time, I suddenly feel this market is quite darkly humorous.
Today's biggest bearish factor is not some macro data, nor the Federal Reserve, but "our own people" running first.
Arthur Hayes casually said on X, "I sold everything," and casually dumped 6,400 ETH worth $15.2 million. He said it very bluntly: "The market has to fall first before it can rise again."
What’s even more intriguing is that a wallet associated with the Ethereum Foundation sold 2,785 ETH on CoW Swap today at an average price of $2,304, cashing out $6.42 million and immediately converting it into stablecoins.
The project team itself is cashing out at this point, while retail investors are still staring at the candlestick charts waiting for a "bullish rebound."
The ETF side is even more straightforward. On October 27, the US spot Ethereum ETF had a single-day net outflow of $88.58 million, with BlackRock’s ETHA alone withdrawing $104.71 million, setting a record for the largest single-day outflow.
Throughout October, Ethereum ETFs have seen cumulative outflows exceeding $1 billion, more than three times the outflow scale of Bitcoin ETFs.
This is not a technical correction. This is capital voting with its feet.
As for my short position, the average price is 2,583, current price 2,307, floating profit 1069%. The forced liquidation price is far away at 2,779, with more than four hundred dollars in between. You are heavily buying near 2,300,
The game you’re playing is "it should rebound after falling too much"; I’m holding a small position, playing the game of "which direction the money is flowing."
Below is $2,209 #SK 79.6% of Bitcoin is still held by individuals.
Bitcoin is the only major asset still controlled by individuals.
River's chart breaks it down clearly. Among the tradable Bitcoin, individuals hold 79.6%, while funds and ETFs combined only have 8.5%. Individuals hold more than 9 times what institutions do.
Bonds, stocks, and gold have been dominated by institutions for hundreds of years. Bitcoin is different; after more than a decade, the majority is still in the hands of individuals.
Why can ETF flows of just one or two hundred million dollars cause such a stir? Because the 8.5% held by institutions is active money moving in and out of the market daily, while the 79.6% held by individuals mostly stays put. The real driver of daily price changes is the flow of active money, not the size of the total holdings.
River says this will change in the future. Institutional share will only increase, slowly following gold's old path.
But that is a slow-moving variable. Today's structure remains unchanged.
Bitcoin is the only major asset still controlled by individuals. $WLD perpetual 50x short position, opened at 0.4465, currently at 0.4336, floating profit +144.45%.
The idea is very straightforward: a top consolidation with volume but stagnant price, volatility compressed to the extreme, indicating chips are ready to be distributed. A single high-volume bearish candle smashed the price down from 0.4465, a typical breakdown signal, shorting is favored over longing. 50x leverage. The trend goes straight down, giving no comfortable exit point, profits take off directly.
At this position, I plan to take half the position off the table first, and move the stop loss of the remaining half to 0.44 to let profits run. If 0.42 breaks down with volume, I will continue holding; if it can't fall further, I will close all positions. $ETH $DOOD #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？
I bought the "No" on this Google deal.
The market is asking: can diluted GAAP EPS be higher than $3.10? Currently about Yes 61¢, No 43¢. Analysts' consensus estimates mostly range from $2.94 to $3.03, so the threshold is a bit higher than consensus, meaning my position isn't large; just testing the idea, not betting heavily.
Why buy No:
Contracts only recognize GAAP numbers; no matter how good the cloud and AI story looks, it doesn't directly count.
To win Yes, EPS must exceed 3.10. Even if it slightly beats consensus, it might not reach 3.10, so the result is still No.
Yes is already near 60¢; many think it will pass; I prefer to bet "it's not that easy to exceed 3.10."
Risks are also clear: last quarter GAAP was boosted heavily by equity investment gains. If that happens again this quarter, EPS could easily exceed 3.10, and No would lose. $BEAT 1. Early stage (June–August) stabilized at ~770k/week, market trading "revenue flywheel, weekly burn"
2. Maintained a range of 750k–850k for most of September, no significant volume increase;
3. This latest week (10.26) jumped to 1,245k, burn accelerated; At 8 PM Beijing time, $BTC is priced at $79,861, down 0.66% in 24 hours, with a funding rate of 0.0013% per hour; the Fear and Greed Index is 48, indicating neutrality. Among contracts with a trading volume over $20 million, CHIP leads with an 11.75% increase.
I run a small company, so when I see this market, I first calculate input versus output: my judgment is that this is not yet a full recovery, more like localized excitement. BTC, ETH, and SOL have all declined in the past 24 hours; a single contract performing well cannot be taken as evidence that the entire market is thriving.
Cash flow must also be considered. BTC’s funding rate is positive, so if holding a long position and the rate remains unchanged, the position incurs ongoing funding costs. The direction hasn’t emerged yet, but costs are accumulating—similar to a store not selling much but still paying rent. Focusing only on the gain leaderboard can easily cause you to overlook this calculation.
Risk reserves are another matter. Neutral index does not mean low risk, nor does it tell me how large localized fluctuations might be. I prefer to view reserved margin as an operating cost rather than idle money wasted; this is my risk assessment, not a prediction of future price movements.
For friends in business, if you treat this kind of fragmented market as taking a new order, how would you set aside risk reserves: based on expected returns, or based on the worst loss you can bear?