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$ZEC
ZEC is now at 1239, with a 24-hour high of 1268 and a low of 1210, moving just half a point in a day, very quiet.
This afternoon a proposal popped up: the Zcash co-founder suggested stopping the current 8% block subsidy to ZCG and redirecting the funds to NSM. I haven't dug into how NSM specifically operates, but just the phrase "cutting the subsidy" is eye-catching, as it affects the developers' share.
There was no reaction in the market; funding rates remain negative, with $146 million in open positions, and no one is rushing to take a direction. I understand they are waiting for the process; such proposals are never final just by being issued.
I tend to see this as the start of a governance game, not a realized negative. The temperament of ZEC has always been quiet on news, with big volatility only when things get serious. At this position, I’m holding and watching.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 The 80,000 line was completely broken yesterday
BTC 79,700. The 80,000-87,000 range that held for a month was officially broken yesterday.
The reason for this dump is not macro but MicroStrategy: it had been buying continuously for months but didn't buy a single coin last week, not adding any of the 848,517 coins it holds, instead using the money to repurchase preferred shares. The largest corporate buyer stopping is more damaging to sentiment than any hawkish speech.
US spot ETF saw a net outflow of $202 million in October, with $636 million leaving on the 22nd alone.
86 million liquidated in 24 hours, with BTC longs accounting for 56%. Fear & Greed index at 48, neutral, no one is buying.
The rate decision is at 2 AM the day after tomorrow, 90% chance of no change, but a 70% chance of a rate hike in December.
My long position is still open, stop loss at 79,200 hasn't moved; if it breaks, I accept it, if not, I'll wait for 83,000.
Did you reduce your position or hold through this wave? $ETH $BTC $SOL
Core truth about the funds: After a massive outflow of 774 million, only one institution remains supporting the market
In the previous two days, BTC spot ETFs saw a combined massive outflow of 774 million USD, putting continuous pressure on the market. Yesterday, the market finally saw a slight capital inflow, with US-listed BTC spot ETFs recording a single-day net inflow of 110.3 million USD, briefly halting the trend of large consecutive redemptions.
However, the market did not collectively recover.
All the inflow this time was solely absorbed by BlackRock's IBIT; all other ETF funds remained flat with zero inflow or outflow.
Simply put: this is not a bottom-fishing inflow by institutions, but a tentative entry by a leading industry giant alone.
Overall, the capital situation in October remains weak; as of now, the monthly total funds are still net outflows, with a cumulative gap of about 202 million USD.
Compared to BTC's slight recovery, ETH's capital flow appears weaker: yesterday, ETH spot ETFs had a net outflow of 88.6 million USD, with BlackRock's single ETHA product alone seeing an outflow of 104.7 million, showing obvious selling pressure.
Currently, BTC price is 79,700 USD, continuously pressured below the 80,000 USD key level.
Although the funds have stopped falling and slightly recovered, the volume is very small and completely insufficient to repair the weak structure this month.
The conclusion is clear: before the FOMC decision is released, this wave of funds is just a test, definitely not a trend reversal. Even when it comes to driving financial innovation, as long as Crypto is not directly mentioned, Americans show much higher support.
A survey conducted by @fund_defi and @Ipsos shows that 35% of respondents support political candidates promoting the development of the next generation of financial technology in the U.S.; but when the question explicitly involves blockchain, cryptocurrency, and DeFi, support drops to 13%.
Another set of figures is even more intriguing: 74% believe the financial system needs to change to give them more control over their money and assets. Yet only 9% say they are very or extremely knowledgeable about Crypto, and only 5% have full or high trust in decentralized platforms.
Demand does not equal trust, and wanting to reform the financial system does not mean believing in Crypto.
The survey also shows that those open to DeFi prioritize using it for saving money and domestic transfers within the U.S., rather than speculation. Crypto ownership has increased by 4 percentage points, but usage over the past year remains at 13%.
This indicates the industry cannot focus solely on acquiring new token holders.
What ordinary people truly need might be cheaper transfers, more convenient asset management, and more direct control over their funds. They may not care whether these functions are implemented via blockchain.
For Crypto to enter everyday life, it relies not on repeatedly explaining how advanced the industry is, but on letting ordinary people genuinely feel its practical value.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ For $ETH, the treasury company BitMine stopping purchases is undoubtedly a short-term bearish factor.
Currently, there are still 58,067 tokens short of the 5% holding target. That means buying will stop in about four to five weeks, and the market is already pricing in this turning point.
However, in the long term, with 5% of the total supply locked, the concentration of chips increases, and selling pressure decreases. Moreover, BitMine will shift its focus to staking yields and business expansion. Other institutions and funds seeing the returns will also become potential buyers.
Ultimately, $ETH will shift from a pure coin-buying narrative to a holding-for-yield narrative.Conclusion first: The HUMAUSD X-Perp launched by OKX today at 16:00 only traded 646 contracts worth $1,700 in two hours; the real 42% increase was in the old perpetual $HUMA that has been around since last year. The gains are in the contract, not the protocol.
① OKX officially announced on 10-27 at 11:00, opened at 0.02527 at 16:00, current price 0.02648, +4.8%.
② The old contract HUMA-USDT-SWAP rose from 0.01851 to 0.02634 in 24h, +42.3%, with $24.76 million traded, only $1.54 million open interest, 16x turnover; spot accounts for only $4.01 million.
③ Fundamentals unchanged: On DefiLlama, Huma's TVL is $380 million, 24h fees $98,000. CoinGecko: market cap $46 million, FDV $265 million, with 10 billion total supply but only 17.3% circulating.
Funding rate at 08:00 was -0.0093% (shorts paid longs), converged to 0.0003% at 16:00, no squeeze on longs.
With TVL at $380 million and market cap at $46 million, do you value it by FDV or by TVL? IBM, Oracle, Intel, and IonQ have joined the opposition list, bringing the number of issuers objecting to OKXICE tokenized US stocks to 26. Previously, on October 23, the public notice listed 22 issuers, initially planning to cover about 63 US stocks. The joint venture platform, equally owned by OKX and ICE, plans to conduct 7×24 hour tokenized stock trading on the X Layer, operating under the SEC's innovation exemption with a 30-day objection window. CoinGecko spot price for OKB is about $107.78 (snapshot around 18:04 Beijing time).
The opposition comes from third-party issuers, not the companies themselves issuing tokens on-chain. Opponents may say the list will grow and trading hasn't started yet. But with major companies individually issuing written rejections, it at least indicates that the path forward is not smooth if default non-opposition is assumed.
If the remaining issuers remain silent during their respective 30-day windows, this will continue to be a tug-of-war over the list; if objections keep piling up before the market opens and the planned listings are cut by more than half, this round should be seen as a signal of product shrinkage, not as the tokenization channel having been successfully established.
$OKB
#OKX #TokenizationWhy does the market trust Berkshire Hathaway when it retains earnings instead of paying dividends, yet remain skeptical of Pinduoduo ($PDD)? The answer comes down to three things: capital allocation, shareholder returns, and trust. Warren Buffett’s philosophy is straightforward: every dollar of retained earnings should ultimately create at least a dollar of market value for shareholders. Retaining cash only makes sense when management can reinvest it efficiently. 1️⃣ Free Cash Flow Matters More $HUMA vs $IRYS
Two completely different situations here.
HUMA is up over 40%, and shorts are getting crushed. Most longs are already sitting in profit, but buyers are still showing up. I wouldn't rush to short this just because it pumped.
IRYS looks much weaker. Longs are deep underwater, shorts are comfortably profitable, and selling pressure is still there.
My take? HUMA could squeeze higher if shorts keep holding. IRYS needs fresh buyers before I'd even consider a long. BTC fell below 80,000, but TRX is busy settling trillions of dollars on-chain! On-chain activity is lively, but the coin price is quiet—is this a failure of fundamentals?
In TRON's official Q3 2026 report, there's a contrast: stablecoin settlement volume is about 2.21 trillion USD, a 5.1% quarter-on-quarter increase; meanwhile, the average daily network fees dropped 4% quarter-on-quarter. An increase in transfer volume does not mean fees increase correspondingly.
The Federal Reserve's rate meeting is from October 27 to 28, but this round of decline cannot be directly attributed to meeting expectations.
First, look at $BTC, quoted at 79,644, down 0.52% in 24 hours. It's still 356 USD short of 80,000. Regaining the integer level and sustaining a rebound are still two different things.
Next, $ETH is at 2,304, down 0.60%. It's only 4 USD away from 2,300, but the integer level is not an automatic support; you can't assume it won't fall just because it's "very close."
Finally, $TRX is at 0.3284, down 0.61%. Instead of just focusing on 0.33, it's better to break it down: with settlement volume growing, how exactly does that translate into token demand?
What’s more worth studying this time is not "why the positive news didn’t cause a rise," but whether we have mistaken business scale for holding income.
More on-chain transfers do not equal more earnings in accounts.
#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ 今天BTC在8万下方磨蹭 大概7.95万到7.98万一带 ETH在2300美元附近 24小时振幅很窄 整个市场像等男朋友回消息 手机攥在手里 啥也不敢干 今天为什么不涨不跌 因为美联储两天会议今天开始 北京时间10月29日凌晨2点出决议 CME定价约90%概率按兵不动 利率维持3.75%到4.00% 不动已经被定价得明明白白 真正的雷在发布会 12月加息概率被定价在八成左右 分手不可怕 可怕的是那句 我们需要谈谈 再看几个小细节 Strategy截至10月25日那周一枚BTC都没买 持仓停在848517枚 钱拿去回购优先股了 MARA关联钱包转了约1000BTC进Galaxy 市场猜要卖 但转到做市商不等于砸盘 另一边Strive一口气买了6182枚 老钻石王老五说这周先不约了 新人立马冲上来表白 信号是混的 别只看一边 另外美国现货ETF 10月22日净流出6.35亿美元 一进一出来回拉扯 不是单边撤退 明日展望 决议本身大概率是个哑炮 看点在发布会口吻 偏鹰 12月加息坐实 短线可能再测7.8万到7.9万 那里有约8000万美元买单堆着 偏鸽 8万有机会重新站回 操作建议 决议前别Last night BTC dropped below 80,000, and the group chat was full of people crying and panicking. I guess many pressed the sell button out of fear. Early this morning, after checking ETF fund flows, I found it fascinating that the Wall Street big players collectively played a disappearing act in this scenario!
$BTC ETF funds were actually zero yesterday, you read that right—zero inflow and outflow. A few days ago, BlackRock and Fidelity were still aggressively dumping (on the 23rd, they sold 16.94 million), but now at the 80,000 mark, these big players are holding steady, indicating institutions are also waiting and watching, neither bulls nor bears daring to shoot first, all waiting for direction.
Looking at $ETH, it was the only one with inflows. While everyone else was hesitant, Fidelity quietly bought 69.14 million worth, forcefully turning the total volume into a net inflow. They were dumping just the day before yesterday, but now at the 2,300 level, institutions clearly think "the price has dropped enough to be worth it," starting to build positions on the left side. This might be the most positive signal in today's market.
Finally, $SOL looks a bit rough, still seeing outflows. Yesterday's net outflow was 80,900. Bitwise and Grayscale are both exiting. Compared to institutions bottom-fishing on ETH, SOL's funding situation remains under pressure, and the selling pressure in the spot market hasn't fully ended yet.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？CORE Hard Fork: Fix the Future, Not Chase the Past
In one sentence, the core idea of this hard fork: fix future protocol vulnerabilities to prevent excessive token issuance; but do not trace back or roll back completed historical transfers.
✅ Fix the Future:
Modify protocol rules through the hard fork to plug the validator reward loophole, fundamentally preventing anyone from exploiting the loophole to unlock tokens prematurely in bulk, avoiding ongoing inflation disasters and preventing more abnormal tokens from emerging. The 186 million CORE tokens still in the vulnerable addresses that have not been transferred out will be directly destroyed.
❌ Do Not Chase the Past:
About 69 million ghost tokens that have already been transferred early to external independent wallets will not be rolled back or forcibly reclaimed by the project team, acknowledging the validity of this on-chain transaction.
The cost is that the selling pressure risk of these tokens remains, which could be sold anytime when the market recovers, suppressing the upward potential of the token price.
Investment Research Interpretation
This choice prioritizes protecting the fundamental trust of the public chain that "once a transaction is on-chain, it cannot be arbitrarily altered," which is the most valued trust foundation in the BTCFi sector.
If historical transactions were arbitrarily rolled back, it would severely undermine the confidence of BTC staking users, who would worry that their staked BTC and on-chain assets could be changed by the project team at any time.
However, only fixing the future and not chasing the past merely solves the single issue of the inflation loophole.
Basic problems such as continuous node withdrawals, SatPay delays, and lack of stable on-chain income will not be automatically fixed by this hard fork.
The hard fork is a stop-loss measure, not a fundamental turnaround.🔥Bitcoin has always dropped after past midterm elections. But one thing most people overlook is that in the past, Bitcoin only completed its cycle bottom after the midterm elections. So the decline is just a correlation, not a causation.
This time, Bitcoin has already completed its cycle bottom, so this round of decline may not repeat. Bitcoin is very likely to have bottomed out before this year's midterm elections, and those , and it may happen again.👀
#DailyOrbit
#BTCETFFlowSwings From "collective retreat" to "single-day turnaround," the attitude of funds is subtly changing
A few days ago, ETFs were still experiencing net outflows, but suddenly reversed:
$BTC net inflow of $40.8 million,
$ETH net inflow of $29.4 million,
$SOL also turned to a slight inflow.
Although not exaggerated in absolute terms, the synchronized return of the three major assets at least indicates that some institutional funds are willing to tentatively take positions at the current level.
However, single-day data cannot be linearly extrapolated.
ETH still had a net outflow of $680 million over the past 30 days,
SOL also has a cumulative outflow gap of $57.9 million; the "scar effect" on the capital side will not completely fade away because of one day's data.
From the market perspective, BTC near 79,740, ETH near 2,312, and SOL near 99.86 are all at the lower edge of the previous volatility range. The appearance of capital inflow at this position indicates that some participants tend to see "dips as opportunities," but whether a trend can form depends on whether inflows continue in the following days.
An imminent variable. The market generally expects no change this time, but the probability of a rate hike in December remains above 60%, which means that even if short-term sentiment recovers, macro-level constraints have not been lifted.
Recording the change in fund attitude; the focus later will be on the sustainability of inflows, not just single-day figures.
This is only a personal market observation and does not constitute any trading advice.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Doing perpetual cross-exchange arbitrage, the outcome is decided before you even hit the order button.
The server is rented on AWS Tokyo, with availability zone az4 selected. Also in Tokyo, az4 to Binance is only 0.3 milliseconds, while the other two zones take 1.5 to 1.9 milliseconds. To mainly run Hyperliquid and Lighter, these two use CloudFront, and switching Lightsail to AZ C can be 1 millisecond faster.
For Hyperliquid market data, don’t just open one connection. I open 3 to 4 simultaneously, and use whichever arrives first, which is faster than a single connection. This trick doesn’t work back on Binance, as there’s no such jitter there.
Don’t click cancel to withdraw quotes. Use modify to move the order to a price that definitely won’t execute; tests show this is twice as fast, with two round trips for canceling but only one for modifying.
A free Lighter account is enough to run arbitrage; don’t rush to buy a paid plan.
The most valuable data is crypto stocks. When the US stock market is closed, tokenized stock prices on Binance move first, leading Lighter’s main site by 50 to 200 milliseconds, and leading Entropy by about 800 milliseconds. During trading hours, Binance only lags Nasdaq by 50 to 60 milliseconds, while Tokyo’s public network takes at least 75 milliseconds to receive Nasdaq data; the middle line is the market maker’s dedicated New York-Tokyo line.
These aren’t strategies, just the baseline. Only those with a low baseline get to discuss strategies. Holding $ENA for almost a month now, without being able to buy low and sell high. Several times it returned to the break-even point but didn’t move. I have always believed this coin has great potential and prefer to accumulate long-term at low prices because this is the trend.
Currently, ENA is in a vacuum period where the buyback mechanism has been approved but not yet activated. The price is fluctuating around $0.20, facing short-term pressure while long-term mechanism options coexist.
⚙️ Core Mechanism: Fee switch approved, but the hard threshold is far from being reached
· Governance progress: ENA holders voted to approve the fee switch proposal on September 2.
· Trigger condition: The 14-day average supply of USDe must reach $7.5 billion to activate the first tier (extracting 5% of net income, of which 95% is used to buy back ENA).
· Current gap: USDe supply is between $4.66 billion and $4.98 billion, about $2.5–2.8 billion short of the threshold, requiring approximately 61% growth to trigger the buyback. The buyback engine is currently completely idle.
📈 Potential growth point: Incremental logic of stock perpetual contracts
· New revenue source: Ethena has expanded its basis strategy to the stock perpetual contract market, which has an annualized funding rate of about 14%-17.5% (compared to Bitcoin’s approximately 4.1% in the same period) and has nearly zero correlation with crypto funding rates.
· Significance: If this business can bring incremental funds, it will accelerate USDe’s scale toward the $7.5 billion threshold, thereby shortening the trigger time for the fee switch. However, this business is less than a year old and has not yet undergone a full cycle test. The top short seller in the crypto market is making a killing again! Fasanara Capital's basket of short crypto assets has unrealized profits reaching $6.49 million.
A $125 million contract position, with short positions around $123 million, accounting for a massive 98.4%, almost entirely bearish.
The largest short bet is on $ETH:
$ETH: short position valued at about $60.82 million, 25x leverage, unrealized profit about $3.91 million, over 60% of total unrealized gains.
$ZEC: short position about $19.17 million.
XMR: short position about $8.98 million.
$BTC: short position about $6.10 million.
$SOL: short position about $3.14 million.
Looking closely at this short portfolio, shorts on ONDO, PUMP, NEAR, etc., also contributed considerable profits, but positions in ZRO, ENA, WLD, etc., are still at unrealized losses.
With $123 million bet on a decline, $6.49 million unrealized profit. This is not a single coin bet but a systematic short covering both major coins and altcoins. For perpetual cross-exchange arbitrage, machine location is more important than strategy.
Place the server in AWS Tokyo, choose availability zone az4, which has 0.3 ms latency to Binance, while other zones have 1.5 to 1.9 ms. For running Hyperliquid and Lighter mainly, switch to Lightsail AZ C for another 1 ms speed boost.
Open 3 to 4 connections for Hyperliquid market data; use whichever arrives first. When withdrawing quotes, don't use cancel; modifying the order by moving the price far away is almost twice as fast.The ancient giant whale who subscribed to 100,000 $ETH in the 2015 ICO continues to sell, transferring 3,000 ETH to exchanges in nearly 24 hours, worth 6.94 million USD 🙌
Since its cost was as low as 0.31 USD, the return rate for this sale will reach 746,324%. There are still 47,000 ETH left on-chain, worth 109 million USD; additionally, it is worth noting that last night he transferred over 100 million USD in stablecoins to major exchanges / MM / OTC institutions, purpose unknown #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
Use 100 XP to participate in SK Hynix earnings forecast, how to maximize profit?
Current OKX Outcomes odds: YES 82, NO 18
YES looks like a high win rate, but buying in full position only earns about 21.95 XP if correct; if wrong, you lose all principal
My approach is not to gamble until settlement, but to trade price fluctuations before the earnings report:
• If YES falls back to 78–80, consider entering in batches with 60 XP
• Take profits in batches if it rises to 86–88
• Consider stop loss if it falls below 76–77
• Keep the remaining 40 XP as reserve, do not blindly add positions
NO odds are indeed tempting, but high odds do not mean high win rate;
Strong SK Hynix performance does not necessarily mean EPS will exceed the market's set threshold. In prediction markets, the key is not guessing the direction correctly, but whether the buying price has an advantage
The above is a trading idea, not a guaranteed profit plan. Odds change quickly, actual transaction price and liquidity are the key
OKX App's asset page now adds company tags, with clear enterprise overview and financial status. For US stocks and data search, one OKX is enoughOperation signals:
After breaking through $83,000, observe whether it can retest without breaking down;
If it holds above $84,000, the short-term bearish structure fails;
But also beware of "buy the rumor, sell the fact," especially if the ETF does not show simultaneous net inflows.
More practical monitoring sequence for this FOMC round:
02:00 Check the statement wording and voting pattern: whether the tightening bias is retained, number of hawkish dissenting votes.
02:30 Listen to the Fed Chair's press conference: focus on "December rate hike," "inflation path," and "urgency to act."
02:00-03:30 Watch the dollar and US Treasury yields: whether DXY and 10-year Treasury yields confirm direction.
After 03:30, watch BTC/ETH structure: whether there is a volume breakout or breakdown beyond the first key K-line high/low after the data.
Next day, check ETF fund flows: if BTC rebounds but ETF continues outflows, the rebound's sustainability should be discounted.
Key price levels and risk control #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ Are U.S. retail investors going crazy? From October 12 to 16, leveraged ETFs attracted about $9.5 billion in one week, setting a new record for Goldman Sachs, nearly double the previous record!
In the red box in the chart: the cumulative capital flow of the top 10 U.S. leveraged ETFs recovered from about -$18 billion to about -$8 billion, while market value shrank from about $120 billion to about $100 billion. Why are investors buying more as prices fall?
The funds mainly rushed into the triple-leveraged semiconductor ETF $SOXL, which saw inflows of about $9.3 billion in just two weeks.
What about the counterparties? Hedge funds reduced their holdings in tech stocks at the fastest pace since Goldman Sachs started tracking in 2016. While retail investors are bottom-fishing, institutions are retreating.
It looks like retail investors are taking over positions from funds. This was indeed the case earlier. The chip sector just experienced its worst week in over a year, with SOXL dropping nearly half from its high on October 6.
So the retail investors who rushed in first did suffer a bit, but now that it has pulled back significantly, the cost-performance ratio is better—same goes for Bitcoin.
I think now is a good time to bottom-fish and build initial positions in spot assets, but don’t heavily bet on a big rebound; the risk is still high. To prevent further pullbacks, take it slow and hold a position size you can sleep well with—that’s sustainable in the long run. What do you think?黄金跌破4,000、BTC跌破80,000，两个避险资产同时下跌。避险资产怎么一起失灵了？ 先说新闻。三个数字：黄金3,998.6（-0.23%，现货3,992.90）、BTC 79,808.7（-1.03%、近一周 -2.6%）、美元指数101.64（-0.17%）。资金侧：BTC ETF最新单日净流出1.172亿、5日净流入3.065亿、10日净流入1.607亿。情绪侧：恐惧贪婪指数54到50。股市侧：标普500 7,623.68（-0.52%）。 再看资金影响。黄金和BTC同时下跌、美元也小幅回落——这个组合很特殊：如果是避险需求上升，黄金应该涨；如果是风险偏好上升，BTC应该涨；如果是美元走强，两者都该跌。现在美元也在跌，说明市场在回收流动性：投资者在卖出资产、持有现金。 对BTC的含义：在这种流动性收缩的环境里，避险资产的标签没有意义——市场只认流动性。BTC和黄金同时被卖，说明这轮调整是系统性的，而不是某个资产自身的问题。这也意味着：单靠BTC自身的好消息很难扭转走势，需要宏观流动性改善。 我接下来盯四个指标：一是黄金能否收回4,000；二是BTC能否守住79,220；三是There is a metronome in Dogecoin's K-line: one year up, one year down, one year grinding, a three-year cycle. In 2021, +2901%, 2022, -59%, 2023, +27% completed recovery; 2024, +244%, 2025, -64%, 2026 so far -25.6%. The rhythm of the second cycle is following the footsteps of the first, currently in the "grinding" phase.
The decline is the clearest signal. Nearly 60% retracement in 2022, turning positive in 2023; this round narrowed from -64% to -25.6%, selling pressure is retreating, chips are changing hands at low levels, the bottom outline overlaps with 2023. If the historical pattern continues, 2026 will be the bottoming year of this cycle, and 2027 will enter a new upward phase.
The force supporting the metronome has not changed. Dogecoin's market cap is small, chips are concentrated, capital sentiment swings create big waves; Elon Musk's endorsement remains, payment licenses are advancing, Tesla merchandise accepts $DOGE payments, each implementation adds fuel to the cycle. The capital watching this window is waiting for the bottoming phase to repeat for the third time.
But the cycle law is probability, not a promise. Two cycles are too few samples, macro liquidity, regulatory tone, and payment rollout pace could rewrite the script. Reading -25.6% as a bottoming signal is fine, but betting all chips on it is not—the metronome will sound, but no one guarantees it will be on time.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ To be honest, I really don't dare to chase this wave of Yushu anymore.
It went from over 60 to just above 100 in two weeks, looking quite fierce, but the company itself came out and said: P/E ratio is 465 times, the industry average is only 38 times, humanoid robots are still in the early stage, don't mistake the story for performance.
What’s even more painful is the half-year report: revenue rose by 48%, but net profit after deducting non-recurring items dropped by 19%. No money was made, but the valuation has already soared. The free float is only 7.4%, so any slight stir causes wild fluctuations.
There are quite a few bearish people in the market square, the funding rate has dropped to -1.12%, and the 104 level is clearly a resistance. Only breaking below 95 would be truly weak, with 90 as the next target.
I entered at 93 myself and am still holding. I'm not advising you to follow, just putting it out there: the financial report won't be released until October 29, so don't get overly excited and chase before then. Negative funding rates for short positions aren't cheap either, so weigh it yourself.
What do you think? Will it break 90 first, or make another push to 104? #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 HUMA has been trending for more than a day now — OKEx price at 0.02645, +16.12%, 24h volume 4.12 million, climbing steadily from the low of 0.01756 to 0.02662, close to the 24h high. MA5/30/120 all crossed above, with the three-day gain accelerating from +10% to +16%, and volume has not shrunk.
What's driving this? Still the payFi setup (after Huma and Arf merged and joined Circle Payments Network as a credit service provider, handling cross-border payment financing). No explosive new announcements today — but this continuous leading rally looks more like capital picking the leader in the sector to build positions: a one-day rise could be coincidence, but three consecutive days means someone is seriously buying.
My judgment: the moderate accelerating gains and healthy volume (4.12 million volume with a market cap over 45 million) indicate this is not a pump-and-dump coin; however, the market cap is small, so volatility will increase as it rises, and those chasing should be clear about what they are doing.
Watch the signals: a volume breakout above 0.02662 (24h high) is a new level; on pullback, first see if 0.02625 (MA5) holds, then 0.02426 (MA30) — as long as this line doesn't break, the payFi trend remains intact.
#HUMA #PayFi #Circle
Not investment advice, DYOR There are so many big holders selling data on today's monitoring feed 😂
1️⃣ Address 0x88239aEc29987BE70c69B5e9d8542d4353142058 deposited 2558.5 $ETH, worth 5.9 million USD; this address had built positions in batches during 2025-2026, with an average entry price around ~$2880, so selling now would also be exiting at a loss
2️⃣ Address 0x5a3489764431956FBb99C28E376b189577CCf9F5 woke up after 11 months of dormancy, redeemed 2511 ETH from Aave 2 hours ago and deposited all into an exchangeThree tokens haven't been mentioned today, but the logic is quietly changing
$HYPE 77, protocol fees from on-chain exchanges are flowing back 📊
The biggest difference between Hyperliquid and CEX is that it distributes trading fees proportionally to token holders. If you hold HYPE, you receive a share of the on-chain fees. This week, on-chain trading data looks good, but the price isn't rising, indicating the market is waiting for the protocol fee dividends to materialize. At the 77 level, holders are waiting for dividends, while those chasing highs are waiting for capital to flow back; neither side is in a hurry.
$ENA 0.21, interest-bearing stablecoins are not the same as regular stablecoins 🌾
USDe is backed by a basket of short-term US Treasuries; by depositing, you earn the Treasury yield, which is completely different from zero-yield stablecoins like USDT. The market is pricing in an interest rate cut in advance, but note: if a rate cut actually happens, short-term Treasury yields will fall, and USDe's interest income will decrease. So the logic of this token might be the opposite of what people expect; don't simply view it as a beneficiary of rate cuts.
$WLD 0.476, user data is quietly increasing 🌐
Worldcoin is not just issuing tokens; it is truly building a "you are human" verification layer for the AI era. The app's user base has been growing over recent quarters, but the token price hasn't kept up, indicating the market is still skeptical about how much this demand is worth. At the 0.476 level, controversy is high; keep your position light.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice
#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ ETH$ funding rate dropped 56%, it's not that longs were liquidated, but that longs exited themselves
After ETH broke below the $2,350 uptrend line, the funding rate fell from a high to 0.004 within 24 hours, a 56% drop. Most people's first reaction is "leveraged longs got liquidated." Wrong.
If it were liquidations, the funding rate would sharply drop then rebound, because shorts covering would push it back up. Now it’s a continuous slow decline, indicating longs are actively reducing positions, not passively liquidated. Those actively reducing positions won’t buy back at $2,300 where they just sold; they will wait, either for a price lower than $2,300 or a confirmed stabilization signal.
This distinction is crucial: after passive liquidation, there is often a V-shaped rebound; after active retreat, it usually grinds at the bottom. ETH’s short-term rebound space is not lacking; what’s lacking is people willing to buy above $2,300. The funding rate not only fell back to positive but even the rebound is just shorts giving face.
Watch: whether the funding rate can stabilize above 0.004 for two consecutive days. If it can’t stabilize, don’t tell me "the shakeout is over." $ETH OCC officially approved Ripple National Trust Bank, the coin is still hovering around 1.30, the "$XRP" "federal license landing" market reaction is quite slow
On Monday Eastern Time, OCC gave the final approval to Ripple National Trust Bank; there was a conditional approval last December, and this time it’s finalized.
Capabilities: managing RLUSD segregated reserves, acting as collateral trustee, providing custody; issuance rights still belong to Standard Custody under NYDFS.
On the same day, the US spot XRP ETF also saw an outflow of about 3.61 million (SoSoValue).
OKX is currently around 1.295 (24h high about 1.313 / low about 1.281), 4H chart shows a rebound from about 1.28 to around 1.30 then pushed back to about 1.296.
Recognizing the license is a plus for institutional narrative, and the current price is still digesting the "good news realization"; it’s not believed that the federal regulatory story near 1.30 has been fully bought in yet.
Watch this price first: see if it can hold between about 1.281–1.30, and break back above about 1.313; if 4H closes below about 1.281, it may go down to about 1.27/1.25.
Do you believe the license will gradually raise valuation, or do you think the good news has already been priced in?
$XRP
#Today's Market Hot Topics#DASH 5.0 official version has been released, but the price dropped with increased volume at 16:00. The project repository shows the version was released at 04:14 Beijing time, with notes stating the new protocol rules require waiting for mainnet activation of version 14. At 16:00 on OKEx, the hourly close fell from $55.58 to $54.86, with a trading volume of about $145,800, which is 2.05 times the average volume of the previous 24 closed hours. At 17:46, the spot price was $54.16.
My judgment is that this release has not yet been confirmed by the price. The volume expanded at 16:00, but the close was lower than the open; this only indicates selling pressure dominated that hour and the decline cannot be directly attributed to the release.
I am more focused on when the mainnet will activate version 14, and whether subsequent closed hours can recover to $55.58. If activation is confirmed and the price returns above that level, the current cautious judgment should be reconsidered.
$DASH Brother Sun added another $20.32 million $PEPE?! Since 10.17, a total of $48.76 million has been transferred out 🐸
10 hours ago, the address 0x721…E5991, marked by Arkham as associated with Sun Yuchen, withdrew 4.65 trillion PEPE; currently Brother Sun holds a total of 11.8 trillion $PEPE, with an average withdrawal price of $0.000004114. Despite market fluctuations, there is still an unrealized profit of $2.085 million, but it is unclear whether this is Brother Sun's personal wallet $MORPHO has secured another exchange, as Latin American crypto platform Bitso officially launches Bóvedas, allowing users to deposit USDC and the Mexican peso stablecoin MXNB directly into Morpho lending vaults within the app, with risk managed at the base layer by Gauntlet.
As of around 17:00 Beijing time on October 27, MORPHO is priced at $2.18, up about 7.5% in 24 hours; the 24-hour spot trading volume for MORPHO/USDT is approximately $1.67 million.
This reminds me of the previous Robinhood Earn.
In the future, users might not even know what Morpho is, yet they will use its lending infrastructure through financial apps like Robinhood and Bitso.
This is the direction worth watching in the competition between Morpho and Aave: who can become the default lending layer behind financial platforms?
Currently, Morpho's TVL is about $11.3 billion, but protocol revenue reported by DeFiLlama remains $0, and the Fee Switch has yet to generate actual value capture.
#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ The FOMC is just two days away, and shorts dare not hold heavy positions overnight at this level.
From October 27 to 28, the Federal Reserve will hold its policy meeting. The market generally prices in a "hold," but the real variable is Powell's wording after the meeting.
If hawkish, interest rates will stay high longer, putting pressure on risk assets. If dovish, rate cut expectations will warm up, and BTC will rally ahead.
Shorts in the 79146 to 80300 range face an asymmetric bet: downward requires the Fed to confirm hawkishness, which will take two days. Upward only needs Powell to say "inflation is improving," and a short squeeze will happen instantly. At a position that has already deeply fallen and where selling pressure is exhausted, shorts have no reason to bet heavily on a binary event.
The backdrop of oil prices also complicates this bet. Brent crude remains above $110, and high oil prices amplify inflation stickiness, forcing the Fed to maintain a tight stance. But Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia have agreed to continue talks, showing slight signs of geopolitical cooling, and WTI crude has slightly given back the war premium from $103. The marginal easing in oil prices gives risk assets a brief breathing window. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 8 days left until the election, and Trump's own coin has dropped 97%. Who the hell can he complain to…
$TRUMP 1.6769, up +0.71% today, giving the election a bit of face, but down -16% over 30 days, the trend is still downward. Only 28% in circulation, a valuation of 1.68 billion is pressing down on a market cap of 470 million. Every step up has sellers waiting, who would want to be stuck with this burden…
$DOGE 0.07708, the worst performer among memes, down -22% in 30 days, never even organizing a decent rebound. Maybe Musk is busy building rockets now, and no one is walking the dog!
$PEPE 0.000004303, down -2.13%, hasn't recovered since the spike on October 23, slowly declining on low volume.
This week is the last window for political coins. If TRUMP can't rally before election day, the political narrative ends there, leaving only unlocks with no story. The problem with DOGE and PEPE is simpler: memes need new retail investors, and this batch is all waiting for the FOMC results!
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 In a nutshell: Even if it's called the same BTC treasury, first look at where the money is spent, don't just focus on who bought how much.
Strategy neither bought nor sold BTC last week, using $204.9 million cash to repurchase STRC; Strive bought 6,182 coins, increasing its holdings to 43,000 coins. The two have different statistical periods, so don't rush to judge which is more bullish.
After Strategy's buyback, it still has $242.4 million in flexible USD cash; another reserve is mainly used to pay dividends and interest. The money for buying coins has a source, and buybacks also require cash. Just looking at the coin holding rankings can easily make you think the company has unlimited ammo.
One last reminder, treasury stocks are not spot BTC, you also need to look at the cash accounts.I think the step that brings stablecoins closer to everyday payments might not be having merchants accept coins directly, but rather merchants not having to handle coins at all.
According to Bitcoin.com News, a collaborative project in Thailand has launched a wallet app called WORPT, allowing foreign tourists to exchange stablecoins like USDT and USDC for Thai baht, and then pay local merchants via Thailand's QR Promptpay network. The app was launched under the Thai SEC's tourist Digipay regulatory sandbox program.
What I value most in this news is the "connection to existing payment networks." Tourists use stablecoins as the funding entry point, but merchants still receive Thai baht, so they don't have to deal with price volatility or on-chain operations to accommodate these customers. Embedding payment tools into existing habits is more practical than setting up a separate payment system.
However, I wouldn't equate launching with widespread adoption. For tourists, whether the exchange fees, rates, and ease of use are convenient will determine if it can replace the original payment methods; the information doesn't clarify these, so the experience remains uncertain. The regulatory sandbox also means there is a defined trial scope and it cannot be considered a full liberalization.
My judgment is that this is a positive signal for stablecoin payment implementation, but not yet proof of large-scale adoption. If you travel to Thailand, would you consider this "stablecoin-to-Thai baht then scan code" method? Among fees, privacy, and convenience, which matters most to you? 📉 SOL Midday: The Bulls' "False Prosperity" and the Last Line of Defense at 99.38
SOL is quoted at 99.72, down 2.11% in 24 hours, with a low touching 99.38.
On the surface, bulls account for 69.6%, with a long-short ratio of 2.29:1, and accounts show a widespread "bottom-fishing" scenario. But this is a typical false prosperity. Among smart money positions, shorts hold 383M with unrealized profits of 15.67 million; longs hold 62M with unrealized losses of 9.12 million. On-chain, three related whale wallets have transferred 482,200 SOL over 3 days preparing to sell, with 171,400 SOL already deposited.
The capital side also does not support a reversal. A net outflow of 25.61 million in 4 hours, and 260 million in 24 hours. The annualized basis has dropped to -22.0%. Under the negative basis environment, open interest has increased to $4.7B, indicating accumulation of short hedges and leveraged positions rather than healthy spot buying. In the past 24 hours, long liquidations totaled $5.1M, shorts only $1.3M; long leverage near $100 is being continuously cleared.
Technically, the price is running along the lower Bollinger Band, with MA5 to MA20 all in bearish alignment. The 99.38–99.79 range is a dense area of long liquidations. Above, 101.44–102.22 is a short liquidation zone. Until the price effectively holds above 102.22, any rebound structurally lacks reversal significance.
🤔 After a 774 million run-off, only one buyer remained yesterday
The US spot $BTC ETF finally recovered yesterday: a single-day net inflow of $110.3 million, ending two consecutive days of $774 million outflows.
But this $110 million was all bought by BlackRock IBIT alone; other ETFs had zero net inflow or outflow that day. It's not a collective institutional return, but the largest one acted first.
The October ledger is still negative so far: a cumulative net outflow of about $202 million. On the same day, the $ETH ETF also had a net outflow of $88.6 million, with BlackRock ETHA alone selling $104.7 million.
$BTC is currently about $79,700 (Beijing time 17:26), still below $80,000. The recovery is real, but the scale is not enough to turn the monthly line positive—before the FOMC decision, this $110 million looks more like a probe than a counterattack.Whales rapidly withdraw 200 million! On the eve of the FOMC, is the $BTC 80,000 level facing the ultimate judgment?
Sideways movement is not stagnation but a warm-up before the long-short meat grinder starts.
The FOMC meeting today has heightened risk aversion. Two whales deposited over $200 million BTC into Coinbase; the ETF is barely holding up with a single-day inflow from BlackRock, while other institutional funds remain cold. Current price is 79,754, with heavy short liquidation chips concentrated between 80,800-81,400. Net outflow over the past 15 days is nearly 2.9 billion, indicating severe long-term bleeding.
Long-short strategy:
Short: Enter shorts near 80,500-81,000, target around 79,200-78,500.
Long: Enter longs near 78,500-79,000, target around 80,200-80,800.
Personal view: Whales depositing to exchanges before the rate decision is definitely not a good sign. With continuous capital outflow, the repeated tug-of-war at the 80,000 level is very likely a bull trap rather than a bottom formation.
Whales show their hand before the FOMC; at the 80,000 level, which side are you on? $ETH $DOOD
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $80,000 Defense Battle: Liquidity Is the Real Examiner
$80,000 Defense Battle: Digital Gold Also Watches Macro
17:36, BTC at $79,692, ETH and SOL fail to turn green. High oil prices, US bond yields breaking 5.3%, bill failure, institutions are re-evaluating crypto pricing.
$BTC: The $80,000 level is under pressure for the third time. $78,000–$79,000 has over $80 million in buy orders, but mostly futures, not necessarily forming spot support; stablecoin reserves drop to $60.62 billion, Coinbase premium turns negative. Fed decision on October 28 approaches, 68% chance of a rate hike in December.
$ETH: $2,310 breaks below the approximate $2,350 trendline. Funding rate drops 56% in 24 hours, leveraged longs retreat; large whale deposits and suspected foundation address sells shake confidence.
$SOL: $99.75, three related wallets transferred 482,200 SOL (about $49.17 million) for sale over three days, with 171,400 SOL already deposited, showing visible selling pressure. The ecosystem fundamentals are not bad, but liquidity temporarily suppresses fundamentals.
Summary: The core contradiction lies in liquidity: ETF fluctuations, stablecoin contraction, and rising rate hike expectations suppress risk appetite. BTC’s $80,000, ETH’s $2,350, and SOL’s $100 are the same macro exam. Before the Fed’s direction is clear, defending support is more realistic than betting on a rebound.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Costing $0.31, 3,000 ETH were transferred into the exchange.
The ancient giant whale who got 100,000 tokens in the 2015 ICO moved 3,000 ETH worth $6.94 million to the exchange in the past 24 hours. He still holds 47,000 tokens, valued at $109 million.
Transferring to the exchange, does it mean selling? Let's look at the details, not just the total.
3,000 tokens account for only 6% of his position. On the same night, he also transferred over $100 million in stablecoins to the exchange, market makers, and OTC institutions, more than 14 times the ETH amount.
Frankly, someone who really wants to liquidate wouldn't just move a small portion, nor would they transfer a small amount of tokens while moving $100 million in cash into the market—a person holding for 11 years with a cost basis of only $0.31 is adjusting structure, not direction; the token portion is trivial, the stablecoin portion is the position.
Big money is repositioning, not exiting.
Next, we watch two things: whether the 3,000 tokens were actually traded, and which account holds the $100 million in stablecoins. Until the trade happens, this is just a portfolio adjustment.
Big money is repositioning, not exiting. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
SK Hynix's Q3 earnings report is about to be released, and market expectations are exaggerated: revenue is estimated around 98–101 trillion KRW, operating profit close to 77 trillion, with a profit margin reaching about 78%, basically setting another record pace.
The core reason is still AI driving up storage prices; both DRAM and NAND ASPs are clearly rising this quarter, plus the high-priced long-term contracts for existing HBM are being realized. HBM4 has indeed started shipping, mainly the 12-layer version, which positively contributes to Q3 profits, but it hasn't reached the level of "pulling up the entire profit" yet. The 8-layer version's mass production for Nvidia is currently expected by Q2 next year.
Therefore, HBM4 can help the company maintain high profit margins and is the most important growth point going forward, but this quarter's explosive numbers are more due to overall storage price increases combined with existing HBM lifting the results. At the earnings call, besides the HBM4 ramp-up progress, everyone is also concerned about whether there will be a relatively large shareholder return from Kioxia.
The tight storage supply-demand situation is not expected to ease in the short term; this cycle looks like it can still last for a while.Given the sharp tightening in the broader bond markets and rising sovereign yields cooling down consumer demand across Europe, the structural setup heavily favors a wait-and-see stance. Expecting the central bank to avoid adding immediate stress and comfortably hold the line on the benchmark deposit rate for this meeting. #ECBDecisionInOctober $BTC still has "breath but no strength" in the 800-808 range — resistance at 805-808 above, defense line at 800 below. This low-volume stalemate itself is a signal: the market is waiting for the FOMC direction on October 28, not the fundamentals. Nasdaq is slightly recovering pre-market, but no one really expects a strong trend before the decision; a rebound to 293xx-295xx is considered enough. The real undervalued factor is the rhythm change. The FOMC on October 28 will likely cause volatility spikes, followed by the midterm elections on November 3 taking over. Market pace will noticeably accelerate in the next two weeks. This means "structure" is more valuable than "direction": if you didn’t accumulate chips at old bottoms or tops, intraday and short swing trades are the only reasonable ways to participate; don’t try to forcibly change market structure. Profits not taken will be given back routinely 😂. $XAU has rebounded a bit but remains weak; there’s a lot of bottom-fishing around 4050-4080. The key is whether these players can be "asked off the bus" first — the quality of the precious metals rebound depends on whether floating chips are fully cleared, not the rebound magnitude itself. The storage sector remains bearish; no short positions entered, waiting for earnings to provide answers. SK Hynix’s Q3 results will likely be steady as always, but whether the HBM4 narrative can be realized is the real watershed for the storage chain. To sum up the view: this is not a coin selection market, it’s a rhythm selection market — $BTC stuck in range, $XAU lacking strength, storage, etc.法国交易员 Théo，是预测市场 Polymarket 上赚钱最多的人。 二零二四年美国大选，他押特朗普赢，说自己一共押进去八千万美元。 链上分析公司估算，光是认得出来的九个账户，他就赚了七千八百七十万美元。到今天，Polymarket 历史盈利榜的第一名还是他的号。 当时美国大多数民调都说，这两个人不相上下。很多人都说Théo是个傻子，根本不知道自己在干什么。 Polymarket 的创始人后来上 60 分钟 这档节目的时候，还特意说起了当时的情况：所有人都说他是个傻子，根本不知道自己在说什么。大家以为他只是喜欢特朗普，其实他自己花钱做了一大堆私人民调。 结果他说中了。 他选前预测，七个关键州特朗普能赢六个，最后七个全赢。他算特朗普全国能拿到百分之四十九到五十的票，最后是百分之四十九点八。 他用的方法说出来很简单：不问你投谁，而是问你觉得你的邻居会投谁。 二零一六年有研究用过类似的问法。那年意外投给特朗普的五个州，民调平均一个都没猜对，但这种问法猜对了四个，非常有意思。 接下来，我就把他的方法全部泄露给各位。看完你会知道，原来交易并不是只有两个按钮。想赚大钱，后面一些场外的工作也是要SK Hynix $SKHYNIX
I choose No, this is what I most want to talk about today
Everyone sees AI storage, HBM supply shortage, and instinctively says Yes, I also admit its main business is very strong.
But this contract is based on the company's officially disclosed data,
And there lies an investment in Kioxia
Last quarter this investment helped it earn a big chunk, but this quarter Kioxia's stock price dropped a lot, so the same account has to be deducted in reverse.
So my view is, its main business will be good, but the earnings per share on the books will be dragged down by this investment.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ A neutral label of 48 minutes is most likely to make people mistake BTC's sideways movement for stability.
My judgment is narrower: the sentiment hasn't reached an extreme, but the price hasn't yet confirmed the previous hour's high; neutrality cannot confirm a breakout.
As of the snapshot around 17:10 on October 27, the Alternative.me index was 48 for the day, 50 the previous day, both Neutral, a drop of 2 points, not 2%.
This is the daily crypto market sentiment, not BTC's one-hour capital flow; the index level hasn't changed, so it can't be used to judge that buying is increasing.
OKX spot BTC/USDT is quoted at 79,831.5; the 16:00 hourly candle closed at 79,863.5, higher than the 15:00 close of 79,809.9, which is indeed evidence of a recovery.
But the snapshot quote is again below 79,863.5 and still some distance from the 16:00 high of 79,950.6; a high close in the previous hour does not mean the next hour has already held.
The 17:00 hourly candle has not yet completed at the lock point, so 79,831.5 can only be considered a quote, not a new closing confirmation.
If a full subsequent hour closes above 79,950.6 and the pullback holds above 79,863.5, then the local judgment can be upgraded from sideways to a confirmed breakout support.
If it first loses 79,809.9 and even the previous close advantage cannot be maintained, then the recovery continuation judgment should be withdrawn; sentiment remains neutral but cannot change this price line.