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Watched for an hour this afternoon, each bounce is lower than the last, ETH lost momentum after dropping from 2159. I'm positioned short; this kind of grinding feels like it's building up to move downward, not a reversal. But be cautious Monday night, volume picking up can easily cause a two-way sweep.
ETH perpetuals, I'm bearish: open shorts around 2115–2130, stop loss at 2165, take profit at 2085 / 2060. Wrong if: 1H close moves back above 2160.
(Personal opinion, not investment advice)#BTC and ETH spot ETFs see a net outflow exceeding $1.6 billion in a single week. This week, BTC and ETH spot ETFs combined recorded a net outflow of over $1.6 billion, signaling a concentrated withdrawal of institutional funds, creating a negative feedback loop of redemptions and price declines. The core pressure comes from the macro side, with the market repricing a delayed Fed rate cut, U.S. Treasury yields remaining high, and the opportunity cost of cashless crypto assets rising, leading funds to prefer high-yield fixed income products.
Structurally, ETH ETFs face more pronounced outflow pressure. On one hand, ETH's staking yields and ETF products are disconnected, with some institutions opting for on-chain staking directly, diverting demand from ETF allocations; on the other hand, the crypto sector lacks new catalysts, compounded by volatility in U.S. tech stocks and geopolitical risks, prompting institutions to actively reduce risk exposure and rebalance portfolios.
ETF redemptions force funds to sell underlying assets in the secondary market, intensifying selling pressure. However, outflows do not necessarily mean a complete bearish trend, but rather a phase of institutional deleveraging. Key factors to watch going forward include changes in U.S. Treasury yields, whether ETF funds stabilize and return, SEC regulatory news, and on-chain staking data. $BTC $ETH $ZEC 🔥What worries people the most now is not how much BTC has dropped, but that the entire market's money seems to be becoming cautious!
💵 Many attribute this round of decline to US Treasury withdrawals draining liquidity, but the real situation is more complex. The market is concerned about the Fed delaying rate cuts or even raising rate hike expectations again; meanwhile, AI tech stocks face valuation pressure, and institutions are readjusting their risk exposure.
📉 When a significant downturn occurs, investors tend to prioritize reducing positions in high-volatility assets. BTC, ETH, and altcoins naturally get affected. Coupled with weak ETF fund flows and insufficient spot buying, rebounds become harder to sustain.
🌪️ Last October was a black swan event, and this October is another period of intense volatility. The market won't immediately reverse just because we hope for a rise.
🛡️ My approach is to first control risk, avoid high-leverage contracts, and not rush to fully buy spot positions at once. What really needs to be awaited is stable interest rate expectations, tech stocks bottoming out, and crypto spot funds flowing back. Today, do you think the market lacks liquidity or confidence? #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $BTC at 74k is a very critical position, hoping it can hold; if it can't, then brace for half a year to a year of waiting.
Never expected to reach 73k in this way... North Korean hackers and the US circuit breakers aren't as fierce as Huang Renxun's moves. I originally planned to go all-in on a black swan event, only to realize this is the real black swan 😭
This morning, retail investors were still very bullish, but the main players withdrew all large orders above 65k. Now retail is still enthusiastically long, while the main players have placed large orders at 70k. Strong altcoins are no longer hitting recent lows, but BTC is still probing the bottom, which is very rare...
The over 10k pullback I called at the end of September has already happened, a 13,000 dollar drop, nearly 16%. The weekly chart shows five consecutive bearish candles, the 3-day moving average is converging, and the daily, 3-day, and weekly charts are all oversold. BTC is still struggling in the negative gamma zone... I believe there is still a very strong demand for a rebound, but if 74k doesn't hold, then it's game over, and spot holders should just play dead.
Brothers, what do you think? Will it plunge straight down to 68k, or shoot like an arrow through the clouds to 80k?Another wallet has had issues again and again.
Keplr @keplrwallet warned that wallets created using one-click login with Google or Apple accounts are suspected to have been hacked,
because the login service provider Web3Auth had a security problem, causing some users' private keys to be leaked.
Accounts created with mnemonic phrases and hardware wallets were not affected.
Damn it, what is safe anymore? Better RUN first!#d[Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Brothers and sisters, Pharaoh took a glance at the latest data today and was so angry he threw his coffee cup: BTC and ETH spot ETFs crazily saw over $1.6 billion outflow in a single week! Setting a new phase record. Pharaoh sneered: What happened to Wall Street institutions' "long-term allocation"? Their exit speed is even faster than retail investors pulling the plug, a typical "jerk" move!
The deadly causal chain behind this:
Non-farm payroll data blows past expectations ➡️ December rate hike expectations firmly capped ➡️ Dollar and US Treasury yields surge wildly ➡️ Traditional institutions see no chance of rate cuts and frantically retreat from high-volatility assets ➡️ BTC and ETH both suffer capital hemorrhage ➡️ Bitcoin plunged sharply overnight to 73,380, now struggling around 74,800!
Brothers, $1.6 billion is no small amount. This shows that under the current macro pressure, institutions have no intention to support the market. Every intraday rebound is just bait for them to sell. Without fresh liquidity in spot, the market can only continue to grind lower in this quagmire.
The big trend remains bearish, currently in an "ICU consolidation phase" after the crash.
Pharaoh's practical strategy:
1. Short aggressively on rallies to the 75,500-76,000 resistance zone, enter decisively if a long upper shadow forms on the 15-minute chart! Stop loss strictly at 76,400, target 74,200/73,600! $BTC $ZEC #BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 $SKHYNIX bounced from $822.70 but is now facing resistance around $850-$855. The broader hourly structure remains weak, and this recovery needs stronger follow-through to change the trend.
Entry: $851-$854 (Short)
SL: $861
TP1: $842
TP2: $832
TP3: $823
Momentum context: Relief bounce within a broader bearish structure.
Conviction: MediumBased on the xSOXL/USDT chart (1D), the price of 46.59 is recovering slightly (+5.65%) after dropping from 108.72 to 40.13.
Key Technical Insights
* Trend: Strong downtrend. Price sits far below the 20-day MA (74.56) and 10-day MA (59.64).
* Support & Resistance: Key bottom support is at 40.13. Immediate resistance is near 59.64, with major resistance at 108.72.
Short-Term Prediction
A temporary bounce toward the 55.00 – 60.00 zone is possible, but overhead selling pressure remains high. ETH/BTC exchange rate dropped 3.56%. Drift Black (0x45d.c00ca) opened $20 million worth of 20x ETH short and 20x BTC long positions yesterday morning, with related positions gaining $658,000 in unrealized profit in just one day. At 6 AM this morning, both Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced significant declines, followed by a stronger rebound in Bitcoin compared to Ethereum, which expanded the unrealized profit of the positions. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC $ETH A foreign KOL with a million followers seems to have finally gotten it right this time with the "carving the boat to seek the sword" strategy. Currently, Bitcoin has dropped back to 75,000, but it's still much higher than the new low of 57,800, so we can only say it seems to be correct.
Next, we need to see if a crash can be repeated, similar to 2018's drop from 6,000 to 3,000, or 2022's drop from 20,000 to 15,000. Personally, I still believe that the "carving the boat to seek the sword" approach can make money. In 2025, based on this, I successfully withdrew at 110,000 to 120,000 dollars, rather than believing in the eternal bull market that some family members talk about.
I also don't think the family members in the market can accurately analyze fundamentals, liquidity, macro factors, policies, and so on. Rather than that, it's better to follow the "carving the boat to seek the sword" method, since it has always been right.
History doesn't repeat itself, but it is surprisingly similar. Studying historical cycles and trends is useful, and the "carving the boat to seek the sword" strategy has value.BTC从8万美元上方摔到7.3万美元附近，连续第五周下跌。很多人只看到其中一个原因，要么怪中期选举，要么怪AI监管，要么怪非农数据。但真相是，这几件事在同一周撞到了一起，每一件单拎出来都能让BTC跌一波，三件叠在一起，就成了现在这个样子。 第一拳：AI监管把科技股砸了，BTC跟着遭殃。 11月4日美国中期选举结果落地，民主党横扫参众两院。这些人在竞选时说得最多的一件事，就是要限制数据中心的无序扩张，要收紧AI监管。全美几十个地方的选票上，甚至直接附带了限制修建数据中心的公投提案。 市场读到的信号很直接。过去两年美股涨得那么猛，核心燃料就是AI。AI要发展就得建数据中心，建数据中心就得买芯片，买芯片英伟达这些公司就赚钱。这条链的前提是监管环境足够宽松，你爱建多少建多少。现在这个前提被打上问号了。谁的手笔？美国民主党。 11月5日，纳斯达克跌5.52%，费城半导体指数跌12.25%，英伟达跌9.26%，AMD跌17%，闪迪跌22%。标普500全部11个板块下跌，一天蒸发3.2万亿美元。 BTC的问题在于，它和AI科技股背后站着同一批人。 对冲基金、多策略基金、追逐高风险收益的资金，同时买了🔥Pullbacks are not scary; what's scary is betting on the bottom with high-leverage contracts before the direction is confirmed!
📉 I currently still lean towards a medium-term pullback. If the Nasdaq continues to adjust, the AI high-valuation sector experiences a larger valuation correction, and U.S. Treasury yields fail to decline, then the funding pressure in the crypto market may continue to increase.
🌍 The Middle East and Russia-Ukraine situations have not formed stable ceasefire expectations, and global risk appetite is easily disturbed by news. After the U.S. midterm elections, if the Democrats control both houses of Congress, future policy and regulatory directions still need further observation; market uncertainty has not disappeared.
💵 But I am not panicking. If BTC returns to around $72,000, I will consider buying spot in batches, slowly accumulating through grid and dollar-cost averaging. If it really falls back near the starting point of this bull market, I will stop adding positions and no longer replace judgment with faith.
⚠️ Spot can withstand volatility, but contracts cannot ignore liquidation risk. Without clear structure, stop-loss, and position management, even the best directional judgment can lose money. Tonight I will continue to observe the rebound highs; if they keep declining, I won’t easily turn bullish.
Are you more willing to hold spot now, or trade short-term contracts? #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ Orbit last night, a long article was pushed to 54,300 views. tvbee wrote: "From 2017 to 2021, BTC was accelerating upwards. But from 2022 to 2025, BTC is generally rising linearly. Brother Feng hopes that with the addition of ETFs, the market has become more mature and rational, rather than BTC's upward momentum being lacking." The night before last, this article had only 3,030 views; last night, 54,300. A jump of more than ten times in one day shows that this sentence hit on something many people want to ask but dare not: Has BTC stopped rising? Let me break down this sentence first. First, acceleration and linearity refer to the pattern, not the conclusion. From 2017 to 2021, accelerating rise: rise for a while, sideways for a while, then rise again, each segment steeper than the last. From 2022 to 2025, linear rise: slower, steady rise, no "doubling in a month" segments anymore. The pattern changed, that's a fact; the pattern changing equals no upward momentum, that's an inference. Facts and inferences should be viewed separately. Second, the addition of ETFs has at least changed two things. One is the buyers: previously retail investors chasing highs and selling lows; now there are institutional funds like ETFs that subscribe and redeem methodically every day, making buying and selling more rhythmic, with fewer sharp rises and falls. Two is the chips: ETFs have daily net subscriptions and redemptions, with funds flowing in and out tracked by ledgers, so sentiment is no longer the sole pricing force. BTC and ETH spot ETFs had a weekly net outflow exceeding 1.6 billion USD.$UNITREE exploded from the $98 region toward $108.88 and is now consolidating around $105.50. Buyers are holding much of the breakout, but a clean move above $106 is needed for continuation.
Entry: $104.80-$105.20 (Long)
SL: $103.80
TP1: $106.50
TP2: $108.00
TP3: $108.88
Momentum context: Strong breakout followed by consolidation.
Conviction: Medium$ONE remains under significant pressure after a prolonged hourly decline. Price is hovering near $0.00149, just above its recent low of $0.0014842. Buyers have yet to show a meaningful reversal.
Entry: $0.001495-$0.001510 (Short)
SL: $0.001535
TP1: $0.001460
TP2: $0.001420
TP3: $0.001380
Momentum context: Persistent lower highs and weak buying interest.
Conviction: Medium-High🔥I don't think we are already in a new major uptrend; the real trending market may still need more time to develop!
📉Currently, the market faces multiple pressures: valuation adjustments in the Nasdaq and AI sectors, persistently high US Treasury yields, and ongoing uncertainties in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine situation. Additionally, with the change in congressional power after the US midterm elections, policy expectations need to be repriced.
📊From the market structure perspective, I pay more attention to the rebound highs. If each rally fails to surpass the previous high and instead forms progressively lower highs, this is a weak structure that requires caution. You can participate in the rebound for observation, but it should not be taken directly as a trend reversal.
🧭For BTC's next correction, I am first looking around $72,000, near the 0.618 retracement zone. Once there, I will consider buying spot in batches, prioritizing grid and dollar-cost averaging. If it continues to fall back near the start of this bull market, I will stop adding positions and wait for a new structure to emerge.
🛡️As for contracts, I won't touch high leverage without confirmed signals. My expectation is that the main uptrend may still take at least two months to arrive, but this is just a personal timing judgment, not a fixed schedule.
Keep cash ready; patience is more important than impulsiveness. How long do you think the next major uptrend will take? #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ Just reviewed the market intelligence for BTC and ETH again, and found that the current capital flows and fundamentals are releasing some signals worth caution. $BTC: Divergence between capital inflows and market sentiment. The US spot BTC ETF saw a weekly net inflow as high as $1.28 billion, indicating that institutional capital still has allocation demand. However, on the other hand, Hyperliquid whales have started to shift to bearish positions, and market leverage sentiment is changing. Meanwhile, Core Scientific is adjusting its business focus, directing more resources toward AI data centers and high-performance computing. This also reflects that mining companies are reassessing the profitability of traditional mining operations. $ETH: Fundamental pressures are more apparent. The ETH spot ETF has experienced six consecutive weeks of net outflows, with institutional demand temporarily lacking sustainability. At the same time, network supply growth and reduced burn intensity challenge the deflation narrative. Additionally, the Glamsterdam upgrade progress has been delayed, meaning market expectations for near-term Ethereum technical catalysts may need to be readjusted. Latest market intelligence: Risks are further accumulating. There is a very important data correction needed here: as of November 6, 2026, the US spot BTC ETF last week did not have a net inflow of $1.28 billion, but rather a net outflow of approximately $1.282 billion, marking the largest single-week outflow since late June. ETH ETF had net outflows during the same period $NVDA continues to print lower highs after dropping from $188. The recovery attempts remain weak, and price is now trading close to the $174.76 support zone.
Entry: $177.50-$178.20 (Short)
SL: $179.30
TP1: $175.50
TP2: $174.76
TP3: $173.50
Momentum context: Persistent selling pressure with no confirmed reversal.
Conviction: HighGold is showing strong buying pressure after bouncing from $4,045. Price has climbed toward $4,141 and is holding close to the session high. Buyers are currently in control, but resistance is approaching.
Entry: $4,120-$4,126 (Long)
SL: $4,108
TP1: $4,141
TP2: $4,155
TP3: $4,170
Momentum context: Strong bullish recovery with rising volume.
Conviction: Medium-HighETH/USDT — BEARISH
ETH trades near $2,120 after a sharp breakdown from $2,240. The weak rebound from $2,063 does not yet show a confirmed reversal.
RSI(6): 27.50 — oversold, but selling pressure remains dominant.
Resistance: $2,140–$2,160
Support: $2,063
Bearish trigger: Rejection below $2,160.
Downside risk: Break below $2,063.
SIGNAL: BEARISH — sellers remain in control. A sustained reclaim of $2,160 would weaken this view.
#Ethereum11Years
$ETH If you want me to make a prediction, I want to ask: Will Ethereum's next upgrade launch on the originally announced date? I'm a bit tired of guessing price ups and downs every day; I’m still willing to check the development progress for this kind of question.
Usually, trading focuses on coin prices, but here we have to figure out whether things can actually be delivered. I understand the odds are somewhat like participants expressing their confidence with money, but everyone might be overestimating the development speed.
As I write this, I realize we also need to clearly define what "launch" means. When developers see this kind of question, will they want the questioner to come fix the bugs? 😂On November 9, BTC flash crashed to $73,477, with the entire network's liquidations dominated by long positions, accounting for about 90%, and over 160,000 people liquidated.
The core issue is not a technical correction, but a concentrated liquidation of leveraged longs:
• Macro: Non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, easing rate cut expectations, putting pressure on risk assets;
• Capital: Spot ETFs saw continuous net outflows, amplifying real selling pressure;
• Liquidity: Weekend trading volume was thin, magnifying the impact of sell orders;
• Trust: Binance security concerns triggered a flight to safety;
• Structure: The long-to-short ratio was high, and after breaking the cost line, forced liquidations and stop-loss spirals resonated.
In short: Macro factors withdrew support, ETFs sold underlying assets, weekend liquidity amplified the shock, security panic ignited the fuse, and crowded longs were deleveraged all at once. Leverage can be liquidated instantly, but confidence restoration takes longer. $BTC #RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ 🔥Don't just focus on how much BTC has rebounded; you should pay more attention to whether the highs of each rebound are getting lower!
📊 If each rebound is weaker than the last and key resistance levels cannot be reclaimed, then the market structure hasn't truly reversed. Short-term rallies might just be short-covering or funds waiting for better selling points, so don't assume the bull market is back just because of one bullish candle.
🌪️ There are still many pressures now: valuation adjustments in the AI sector, high US Treasury yields, uncertainties in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine situation, plus changes in congressional power dynamics after the US midterm elections. Market risk appetite may continue to fluctuate.
💵 My spot trading plan is clear: if BTC pulls back to around $72,000, consider buying in batches, prioritizing grid and dollar-cost averaging strategies, not going all in at once. If it falls back near the start of this bull run, stop adding positions and protect your principal first.
🛡️ Futures trading follows a completely different logic. Without a trend, entry structure, or stop-loss level, even if you are right about the big picture, high leverage can prematurely knock you out.
Today, I’m more focused on whether the rebound can break the previous high. How far do you think this rebound can go? #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ I used to think that as long as I didn't sell, the loss was just a paper loss.
But now I realize that holding an asset that hasn't performed for a long time also comes at a cost. Having funds locked in $CORE means potentially missing out on better opportunities elsewhere.
If the project's progress falls short of expectations, market enthusiasm continues to decline, and exchanges gradually announce stopping support, you can no longer rely solely on faith to wait.
Long-term holding does not mean unconditional persistence; what truly matters is whether the project still holds the value you initially believed in.
The market won't give you better returns just because you've held your position longer.
The biggest fear in investing is not loss, but refusing to make a new decision because you can't accept that the logic has already changed.
$CORE
#USCPIDecemberRateWatch NYSE-associated platform chooses Avalanche for clearing ledger!
Ava Labs just announced: the upcoming NYSE-associated tokenized securities platform will use Avalanche as the core ledger for clearing and settlement layers; Dennis Lee, head of NYSE digital issuance, also publicly stated this. Pending regulatory approval, the goal is to support 7×24 operations. OKX spot AVAX is about $8.67, up approximately 5.2% in the last hour (around 21:25 Beijing time, OKX). Wall Street is really embedding blockchain into clearing.
$AVAX $BTC $ETHWhale Hedging Positions: Making Huge Profits While Dragged Down by ZEC
This set of perpetual contract whale positions has a total value of 31,857,800 U, with a very clear strategy: long-short hedging, full position with high leverage. After seeing this, one can only say the capital scale is indeed intimidating.
🔸$BTC Long position at 29X leverage, holding 114.6 coins, position value 8,551,000 U, entry price 74,296.3 U, unrealized profit 36,900 U; but funding fees already paid 274,600 U, margin 294,900 U, liquidation price 39,648.
🔸$ETH Long position even more aggressive: 25X leverage holding 10,000 coins, position value 21,338,000 U, entry price 1,765.8 U, unrealized profit 3,679,900 U. However, funding fees paid 725,400 U, margin 853,500 U, liquidation price 1,729.99, not far from the entry price.
The real drag is the $ZEC short position: 10X leverage holding -1,600 coins, position value 1,968,800 U, entry price 660.6406 U, unrealized loss 911,800 U; funding fees received 55,200 U, margin 196,900 U, liquidation price 3,586.09.
ETH is making big profits, BTC small profits, ZEC short position under pressure, funding fees flowing out rapidly. High leverage hedging seems balanced but in reality, every step is dancing on the edge of a knife.BTC Investment Weekly Report | Issue 18 (Exclusive for Long-term Holders · Major Cycle Analysis) Statistical Period: 2026-11-02 to 2026-11-09 Reference Closing Price This Week: 74850 USDT Risk Warning: This is only an on-chain cycle review record and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency assets carry extremely high volatility risk. 1. Core Indicator Data (CBBI uses a percentage scale, consistent with previous standards) 1. CBBI (Bitcoin Bull Market Sentiment Index): 49 2. MVRV Z-Score: 0.71 3. RHODL Ratio: 932 4. 200-Week Moving Average Price: approximately 64076 USDT; current premium relative to 200-week moving average ≈117% Note: According to Plan C discipline, a premium above the 200-week moving average ≥220% enters the observation zone, and only with multiple indicator resonance will position reduction be triggered; this round of ETF funds continues to enter, posing a risk of indicator dulling, and signals are continuously monitored for synchronization. Premium at 220% corresponds to: 64076 × 2.2 = 140967 USDT 2. Cycle Position Analysis Price range this week: 73750–80600 USDT, with intraday rise and fall, representing mid-stage bull market consolidation and shakeout. CBBI is in a neutral range, not reaching historical frenzy extremes; MVRV Z-Score and RHODL Ratio still have significant room before reaching the bull market top overvaluation thresholds, and on-chain long-term holders' chips have notNew York Stock Exchange officially selects Avalanche to settle tokenized US stocks on the blockchain.
This is MASSIVE for $AVAX !$SNDK Today, Sister Xi said the main strategy for the US stock AI sector is to short at highs. The current position is 840, which has reached a resistance level. Bears, assemble! You can add to your position if it rebounds above 850 $BTC just surged past the high point of the 15-minute consolidation, then quickly dropped back down. When it surged up, my heart skipped a beat, thinking a trend reversal was coming. The price touched around 75,000, but not a single candlestick held above that level before falling back.
Looking at the 15-minute chart, the previous 30 candlesticks have been moving within a horizontal range. Just now, this candlestick broke above the upper boundary of the range but closed back inside. This is a UTAD within the range consolidation. The surge swept through the sell orders above, leaving a candlestick with a long upper shadow. Although volume appeared, the buying momentum did not continue.
Zooming out to the daily chart, the area around 75,000 is exactly the resistance formed by a daily swing low turned resistance. The daily price has touched this level twice, and the resistance above remains intact. Meanwhile, on the 4-hour chart, the EMA lines are still in a bearish alignment pressing downward. The 15-minute rebound hit major resistance from higher timeframes, and the momentum quickly exhausted.
I judge the outlook to be bearish next. The current price just touched the daily resistance zone, and without large capital volume to break through, the price is expected to turn down and fall first.
$ETH $SOL #英伟达启动独立调查，管理层稳定性受关注 $ZEC is showing high volatility after correcting from $1,293.93. Buyers defended $1,178.66, but the recovery toward $1,225 has faced another rejection.
Entry: $1,220-$1,228 (Short)
SL: $1,240
TP1: $1,200
TP2: $1,185
TP3: $1,178
Momentum context: Volatile recovery with sellers defending higher levels.
Conviction: Medium$SNDK SanDisk had a week of relentless decline. Earlier, there was talk about the AI storage story, but once the earnings report came out, the story collapsed on its own.
The earnings report isn't actually bad; revenue is still growing, and the data center segment is even surging. However, the stock price reversed sharply with a more than 20% big bearish candle, and volume tripled compared to usual. This kind of drop doesn't look like retail selling but more like expectations being fulfilled and insiders exiting early.
In the following two days, it closed with two small bullish candles at a low level, with volume shrinking, showing signs of stopping the fall. But it hasn't even recovered half of that bearish candle, indicating few are willing to buy in, and bottom-fishers are still waiting for a cheaper price.
More subtly, there's a stock split at the end of the month, splitting one into eight, cutting the price to a fraction. The threshold drops suddenly, the story can be told again, and more people will come in to catch it.
#美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% $XRP is struggling to hold its recovery after falling sharply from $1.1693. The bounce toward $1.10 faced selling pressure, keeping the short-term structure bearish.
Entry: $1.0980-$1.1030 (Short)
SL: $1.1120
TP1: $1.0880
TP2: $1.0800
TP3: $1.0757
Momentum context: Lower highs and weak recovery momentum.
Conviction: Medium-High$PEPE is quietly climbing despite market volume dropping 44.63%. With RSI at 67.58, it’s nearing resistance, while $BTC remains directionless. This looks like capital rotation into memes and altcoins, not a broad market recovery. Watch $PEPE 0.0000050458 breakout and BTC’s 76,135 resistance.#NebiusAI cloud business rapid growth faces earnings test
The leader has something to say
I came across this about Nebius: Q3 earnings report will be released before market open on November 12, Q2 group revenue increased by 454% year-over-year to $582 million, with AI cloud as the main source of income. The community's three points are reasonable: first, AI cloud providers are shut out from the high-yield bond market, effectively tightening financing channels; second, revenue up 454%, EBITDA turned positive, but single-quarter capital expenditure of $5.657 billion far exceeds revenue, growth is fueled by burning money to gain scale; third, B200 spot price doubled within seven days, new capacity will be quickly booked once online.
My interpretation is: Nebius is a microcosm of AI cloud expansion. The revenue surge is real, but the burn rate is even more alarming—single-quarter capex is nearly 10 times the quarterly revenue. In an environment of unexpected weak non-farm payrolls, a 79% chance of a rate hike in December, and the high-yield bond market closing its doors, this money-burning financing model will be repeatedly scrutinized. For the crypto space, NBIS, like IREN, ASTS, and RKLB, is a high-beta AI/computing power risk asset; its earnings directly affect sentiment across the AI cloud sector.
BTC current price is about 75000, consolidating Monday night. My approach: NBIS earnings are before market open Wednesday, no rush; do not chase above 75000, if it breaks below 74500 look toward 73000. RKLB and ASTS earnings tonight, will decide direction after US market opens.
The above analysis is time-sensitive, please stay safe. $BTC $ETH $SOL $AKE New Coin Ranking No.7, 24-hour trading volume 148 million, holdings 48.83 million, turnover rate 8 times."
No need to say much about this coin, it has been analyzed before. Today it directly dropped to -10.78%, sending all the 2x leveraged longs to the crematorium. The ratio of large holders' long to short positions rose from 0.8 to 1.16, indicating someone is building a position, but building a position ≠ pumping the price; during the accumulation phase, the dealer wants to make you suffer.
On November 21, 2.11 billion tokens will be unlocked. Every 1 yuan drop now saves the dealer the cost of unlocking and selling. You talk about faith here, the dealer is calculating KPIs.
Tonight's main course: shorting brothers feast on seafood, longing brothers wash dishes in the kitchen. 2x leverage in front of this coin is like running naked, don't be stubborn.$OKB is still trading within a broader bearish structure despite recovering from $107.25. The latest candles show hesitation near $109.50, keeping downside risk in focus.
Entry: $109.50-$110.00 (Short)
SL: $110.60
TP1: $108.50
TP2: $107.80
TP3: $107.25
Momentum context: Recovery is facing resistance. A rejection below $110 would favor sellers.
Conviction: Medium$ETH is showing a strong recovery from $2,236, with buyers pushing price back above $2,280. Volume expansion supports the move, but $2,300 remains a key hurdle.
Entry: $2,275-$2,285 (Long)
SL: $2,260
TP1: $2,300
TP2: $2,318
TP3: $2,340
Momentum context: Bullish recovery with strong buying activity.
Conviction: Medium-High$BTC is attempting a recovery after bouncing from $76,360. Buyers have pushed price toward $77,450, but the broader hourly structure still needs confirmation.
Entry: $77,250-$77,400 (Long)
SL: $76,950
TP1: $77,700
TP2: $78,000
TP3: $78,400
Momentum context: Short-term bullish recovery. $77,600 is the next important resistance.
Conviction: Medium$BTC closed last Sunday’s weekly candle at 74,851 (Binance), marking the first time since September that it closed below the 50-week moving average, which is currently around 75,500. Tonight at 7 PM, it rebounded to a high of 75,103 but was pushed back down to around 74,800, dropping 1.75% in 24 hours. It’s just a few hundred dollars short of the 50-week moving average and can’t quite reach it.
The Block cited CoinGlass data showing $1.15 billion liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, with long positions accounting for $1.04 billion. $ETH alone saw over $500 million liquidated, more than BTC’s $309 million. ETH is now at 2,120, down 5.5% in 24 hours.
Galaxy’s Alex Thorn reviewed history: after the 2011-12 drop below the 50-week moving average, it stayed below for 20 weeks, with a maximum drop of 35%; in 2019-20, it crossed below and above the 50-week moving average five times, but the previous bear market lows were never broken.
My view is that this moving average won’t be reclaimed in a single day. The 200-day moving average is around 73,200; this afternoon, 73,750 was the level where it was caught above it. This week, I’ll watch the 73,200 to 75,500 range to see which side breaks first. I won’t chase before the CPI release.
$BTC $ETHDo you need to constantly monitor the market when trading?
Do you have to enter the market immediately whenever the price moves?
As an analyst, I won’t let my students fall into endless internal exhaustion from staring at the screen.
Most of the time, the market does not present high-quality opportunities.
Every day, I pre-select and only provide students with a small number of repeatedly verified directional strategies, defining key zones, entry conditions, and risk control boundaries.
Usually, I just quickly glance at the market without being led by chaotic fluctuations. Only when the market reaches a preset signal point do I analyze it deeply; if there is no opportunity that fits the system, I remain on the sidelines.
The longer you stare at the market, the more likely you are to be disturbed by intraday noise, forcing yourself to find opportunities to act, constantly trial-and-erroring in oscillations and false signals, causing unnecessary losses.
The core of trading is not about who spends more time watching the market, but about the ability to filter noise and stick to the rules.
The strategies I provide to students always follow three bottom lines:
Do not participate in market moves outside the plan
Do not place orders without clear entry signals
Do not set up trades if the risk-reward ratio is inappropriate
The market is always there, but opportunities are not endless.
I am responsible for filtering the market and delivering concise ideas; everyone only needs to wait for signals and execute according to the strategy, without having to watch the market all day tightly.
Learning to keep distance from market noise and patiently waiting for certain opportunities makes it easier to achieve stable results.
$XAUT $ETH fell below 2100, still buying the dip? Whose position are you taking over?
You call this a rebound? ETH smashed through 2100, down 5.6% in 24h, with 91% of the $500 million liquidations being longs. Bulls, take a step back—where is your stop loss?
Funding rates are interesting: Binance is -0.0073% dominated by shorts, but the whole market weighted average is +0.0026%, showing full divergence. Last time I saw this structure, I reduced my position by 30% early, earning 8% less but avoiding liquidation. Is it happening again?
Open Interest dropped 5.89%, smart money is exiting, yet 47% of longs are still naked. BTC dominance surged to 60.25%, draining ETH. Regulatory panic plus Vitalik’s call to shift to SoV. My judgment is this is a downtrend continuation, not a bottom. Those buying the dip should first consider whose position they are taking over.
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ #BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 #美国加密监管：《CLARITY法案》推进受阻，401(k)规则进入最终审查 $ACT jumped 12% and $SIGN 16%, but sharp moves can reverse just as quickly. Meanwhile, $LAB barely moved due to weak buying interest. The real difference isn't the price gain, but whether buyers have enough conviction to keep pushing higher.Coinbase's national trust bank license has been officially approved, upgrading from conditional approval. The approving authority is the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) in the United States. As early as April this year, the entity received preliminary approval to conduct federally regulated custody and payment-related businesses, but it will not become a full-service bank that can accept deposits and issue loans. After obtaining the preliminary license, Coinbase spent several months building a supporting compliance system, staffing relevant personnel, and completing various regulatory reviews, ultimately achieving this official license issuance. Currently, public information has not disclosed the specific effective date of this license or more detailed business scope regulations. This license issuance means Coinbase has taken another step forward on the compliance path, operating custody and payment businesses under a federal trust qualification. Compared to a purely state-level license, the regulatory framework will differ. However, it is important to note that the currently available information on business boundaries is incomplete, and the actual implementation of related businesses will require more details to be released in the future. $BTC $ETH plunged sharply at dawn, triggering liquidation chains 👀
At 05:45 this morning, $BTC and $ETH simultaneously dived, driven by multiple negative factors: the non-farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, pushing the rate hike probability to 80%, regulatory tightening after the midterm elections, the old Binance $6 billion theft case resurfacing and thinning the spot liquidity pool, and investigations related to Jensen Huang disturbing sentiment. The funding side is also under pressure, with BTC spot ETFs seeing a net outflow of $1.282 billion last week, IBIT alone accounting for $1.2 billion; Hyperliquid whales' net short positions approaching $1 billion, hitting a new phase high.
The trigger was pulled during the Sunday night session: thin Asian trading, Upbit offline for 5 hours, weekly close sweeping liquidity, shorts started dumping at 06:00, Drift hacker's 20x ETH short and BTC long positions ignited the market, instantly triggering a cluster of liquidations between 73K-76K longs. The stampede was brutal: 56,667 ETH longs ($118 million) wiped out with a loss of $44.78 million; $253 million long positions blew up $140 million; a trader's 540 ETH precisely liquidated at 05:51.
The aftermath is still unfolding: nearly $1 billion net short positions are a double-edged sword, easily causing a short squeeze. Tomorrow night’s US CPI will determine whether this is a shakeout or a trend reversal.
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ The four-hour candle early this morning broke through a range that had lasted over two months.
BTC directly dropped to 73,500, with trading volume twice the average of the previous twenty candles. ETH was even more decisive, with a single K-line dropping over seven points intraday, and volume expanding to four and a half times.
The speed of the drop differs, and this is more important than the drop itself.
From their respective highs, BTC retraced less than 15%, while ETH nearly 25%. If this were rotation, money moving from ETH to BTC, then BTC should rise when ETH falls. Today both fell together, with ETH falling even harder. This is not rotation; someone is withdrawing funds, with BTC just retreating more slowly.
After breaking the support, the key is whether the rebound can recover the losses.
BTC bounced to 75,600, looking like it might reclaim the level, but none of the last four closes stood above 75,000. Intraday spikes don’t count; only closing above counts.
Looking at volume again: the break candle was double volume, and the following three candles did not shrink below average volume. This volume is not just a one-off selling pressure; it indicates a sustained move.
The downside levels are also straightforward.
Below BTC’s break point, between the June-July lows, there is almost no trading support. If it really falls in, there’s nothing to catch it in between.
ETH is even tougher. The September low was lost long ago; today’s low is the last line of defense. Only below 2,000 is there decent trading volume; the middle section is empty, so there’s no support when it falls.
My action today was no action.
I didn’t catch the rebound nor chase the short. On the break day, both sides are easily stopped out: chasing shorts can be stopped by a single pullback; bottom fishing has more room below. Wait for the four-hour close to give the answer—if it closes below the break point, treat this as a downward move; if it recovers, then act as if nothing happened.
Position sizing is based on the worst-case scenario. If wrong, no adding or averaging down. This is the only part I can control.
The charts are from today’s close, with key levels marked; you can see for yourself.
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Thanks for following, and feel free to share your observations and thoughts in the comments. I will continue to share chart records and market insights for your reference.$SOXL : The ideal dip-buying zone is $40–43, with a potential bottom around $35–40 and a worst-case target near $30. For mid-to-long-term longs, keep leverage at 2–3x max to reduce liquidation risk. Trade at your own risk.$AAVE
AAVE’s long-term relevance comes down to whether decentralized lending can remain competitive as financial infrastructure evolves. Its lending markets provide a practical use case beyond token speculation, but sustainable growth requires borrowers, lenders, and healthy collateral management. Rising deposits alone are not enough; genuine borrowing demand and manageable liquidation risk matter just as much.$ONDO
Tokenized real-world assets are creating an interesting bridge between traditional finance and blockchain infrastructure. Ondo operates in this developing sector, where transparency, regulatory compliance, and access are just as important as technology. However, growth in tokenized assets does not automatically translate into demand for ONDO itself. Understanding that distinction is essential when evaluating the project's long-term economics.XRP/USDT Prediction
XRP is in a steep daily downtrend, currently testing the critical support zone around $XRP 1.076. While the broader market faces liquidations, watch for a potential double-bottom or a bullish divergence on the RSI. If buyers step in here, a short-term relief bounce toward the $XRP 1.15 resistance is possible. However, failure to hold this floor could trigger a deeper flush.
Will XRP hold this crucial support, or are we heading lower?