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🔥 Tonight's CPI report may determine whether BTC continues to test new lows in the short term or enters a period of respite!
Looking back at this market cycle, the bears' strength is already very evident. BTC has seen five consecutive weekly declines, falling below $75,000 and losing the 50-week moving average; during Sunday's liquidation wave, long positions were heavily hit, with a single liquidation amounting to about $855 million. Even more concerning is that the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow exceeding $1.2 billion in a single week, with institutional capital outflows adding further pressure on market absorption.
📊 The biggest variable in the market now comes from Federal Reserve policy expectations. October's nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, rekindling bets on a December rate hike, and the market fears that high interest rates will persist longer. At 21:30 Beijing time tonight, the October CPI will be released, with core inflation and service and housing price performance especially worth watching.
📉 If CPI is higher than expected, tightening expectations may continue to suppress BTC; if lower than expected, the dollar and yields may retreat, and risk assets could gain support. But even if a rebound occurs, it is important to see if it can hold key levels—one bullish candle should not be mistaken for a reversal.
⚠️ My strategy remains to wait for the data to land and not to take heavy positions prematurely. The more extreme the market, the more important it is to control emotions. Do you think the bears will continue to exert force tonight, or will the bulls finally see a turning point? #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ The cryptocurrency market is experiencing pressure from a broader decline in technology stocks, highlighting the growing connection between digital assets and traditional financial markets. Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP and Solana have all moved lower as investors reduce exposure to risk-sensitive assets. CoinDesk reported that only five of the top 100 cryptocurrencies gained at least 1% during the reported 24-hour period. The technology market has also become an important source of uncertainty. Weakne#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？
🔥 After BTC fell below 75,000, what really worries the market is no longer just the price itself!
Five consecutive weekly declines, losing the 50-week moving average, indicate that the medium-term trend is under significant pressure. On Sunday, the market saw concentrated liquidations, with about $855 million in positions forcibly closed, making the bulls the main victims. Meanwhile, the US spot BTC ETF experienced a net outflow of over $1.2 billion in a single week, with institutional funds continuously withdrawing, making it naturally difficult for market confidence to quickly recover.
📊 Why did it fall so sharply at this particular time? The core reason is a change in macro expectations. Strong October non-farm payrolls led the market to start betting again on a possible Fed rate hike in December. Changes in the dollar and US Treasury yields also affect the risk appetite for gold, the Nasdaq, and crypto assets.
🎯 Tonight at 21:30 Beijing time, the October CPI will be officially released. If inflation is higher than expected, the market may continue to trade under tightening pressure; if significantly lower than expected, rate hike bets may cool down, giving risk assets room to recover.
⚠️ Do not bet on direction before the data, and do not rush to chase the first candlestick after the data. First observe the market reaction, then decide whether to enter. Do you think this round of decline is not over yet, or is it already close to a phase of panic bottom?$ZRO This short position belongs to the "waited until the right moment to act" type. 1.6282 is not a random short; it’s based on observing a 4-hour level bearish divergence with volume stagnation. The rebound spike is the entry signal.
With 20x leverage, currently at 1.4779, floating profit is 184.62%. The biggest risk for shorts is a short squeeze, so the first profit level is cashed out immediately, and the remaining position uses a trailing stop loss. If it rises back, at most some profit is lost, but no serious damage.
If you missed it, don’t worry, wait for the next opportunity. $BTC $ETH How are the bulls doing? Where did the people shouting 'bull' go? Those who shorted $ETH at 2297 either took small profits and exited or got stopped out by the subsequent rebound, with an average price of 2343. And with 2200 looming close, it’s about to be broken — anyone still willing to catch the knife at this level truly deserves a 👍. This is not schadenfreude but a signal overlooked by most: when "bottom fishing" turns from a strategy into a belief, the market often hasn’t finished its course. What’s really worth watching is not the round number 2200 itself, but the structure behind it. Shorts have been building positions continuously from 2297 up to 2343, indicating that selling pressure is not a one-time release but a sustained suppression through phased entries. At this pace, if 2200 breaks, it won’t trigger panic selling but rather a stop-loss chain from those who repeatedly bottom-fished before — the second layer of selling pressure is just being ignited. As the sentiment anchor, if $BTC weakens simultaneously, $ETH’s breakdown will be smoother; conversely, if $BTC holds steady, $ETH’s decline might evolve into an independent catch-down drop, which is actually a weaker signal. Now looking at $AKE. Has the controlling party "stopped eating"? It can’t rally, can’t crash to create extreme moves, can’t even generate negative fees, and can only linger sideways at a high level. This stalemate itself is information: there’s neither capital willing to push it up nor courage to clear it down. Staying sideways at a high level is not strength but a passive pause after liquidity dries up. The controlling party loses whether it rises or falls, indicating the chip structure has loosened, just waiting for a trigger point. A sharp drop might be its only way out. My judgment is straightforward: this is not a "bull return" $ETH interest rate hike bet reaches 80%, while gold surprisingly surges to 4100, the logic isn't contradictory, the expectation for the final cut has been moved forward from June next year to April. After this round, it will be over; did the smart money run early? Did everyone flee to gold for safety? If the last inflation data before the December rate decision exceeds expectations, Ethereum will take another hit, the crypto market will be the most hurt, BTC breaks weekly support, ETF outflows reach 1.28 billion in a week, the market drops on slight bad news. Before the data is released, those with empty positions should neither catch falling knives nor chase gold; wait for the landing to see, CPI will set the direction, trash Ethereum #VanEck停止推进Lido质押以太坊ETF Solana is struggling to maintain its position as cryptocurrency investors continue reducing exposure to altcoins. SOL was trading around $87.45 in the reported market snapshot, while the broader market remained under pressure from Bitcoin's latest decline. The $85 region is becoming an important psychological and technical area for traders. A successful defense of this level could encourage buyers to return and potentially push SOL toward higher resistance zones. However, a breakdown could exposThis week, there are three clues in the crypto market worth noting, coming from BTC, ETH, and SOL, and they are not just routine updates at the ecosystem level.
Regarding BTC, Cathie Wood once again discussed Bitcoin and gold: she believes that "digital gold" does not mean replicating gold's price movement, and BTC still has room to strengthen relative to gold. This insight is enlightening—if BTC wants to form an independent narrative, it should not be long-term driven by gold and U.S. stock market sentiment.
Regarding ETH, Vitalik expressed reservations about "supporting valuation solely through burn volume," stating that burning alone cannot prove that ETH has reached a true bottom; he is more focused on whether RWA can bring external economic demand. This actually brings the discussion back to fundamentals: ETH's long-term support cannot rely only on the deflationary story but must see real on-chain activity and usage demand.
Regarding SOL, Samsung Wallet's stablecoin account went live, Schroders partnered with Centrifuge to launch an emerging market debt fund, and ecosystem application revenue reached $153 million in October. The continued involvement of traditional institutions is a somewhat positive signal for SOL's application landing and long-term development.
Overall, mainstream crypto assets leaned positive this week, with favorable factors accumulating. The more critical question going forward is whether BTC, ETH, and SOL can translate these fundamental changes into market performance. What should you consider before macro data releases when holding BTC?
1. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics calendar: The October CPI will be released at 21:30 Beijing time on November 10. As of the data cutoff, this has not yet been published; scheduled time does not equal released results.
2. More useful than guessing numbers is understanding risk transmission: if data changes interest rate expectations, it may affect financing costs and risk appetite, which then impacts BTC. However, data strength or weakness does not correspond to fixed price moves; market expectations and positions also influence reactions.
3. For a portfolio, the question is: if the price surges then falls after the news, can the current risk exposure be tolerated? The same price volatility can lead to different loss paths depending on leverage and liquidity conditions. Separating tolerable loss from directional judgment prevents a single headline from temporarily disrupting discipline.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics November release calendar; mechanism section is a research framework.
Data cutoff: 00:27 Beijing time, November 10, 2026.
Research discussion only, not investment advice.
#比特币与纳指相关性大幅下降：独立还是假象 Has Ao Ying's market sense been this good these past few days? He's made gains again
Ao Ying holds $NVDA with an average entry price of 174.5, currently floating a profit of 11.45%. The RSI is at 44.77, clearly rebounding from the previous oversold zone of 32.6, confirming the oversold rebound logic;
The Bollinger Bands position has risen from 0.22 to 0.51, and the price has returned near the middle band, signaling an initial repair of the bullish structure.Solana coin stock Meme launcher STONK plummeted over 30% overnight STONK whale ImBrentJames, who has 12,000 fans on fomo, liquidated all STONK holdings, losing $775,000 ImBrentJames initially spent $1.229 million to buy at an average market cap of $169 million, but ultimately exited with a 63% loss On one hand, the coin stock Meme is cooling off, both STONK and PONS are struggling, and buyback amounts have sharply declined On the other hand, a new contender emerges in the Solana Launchpad arena,#NebiusAI cloud business rapid growth faces earnings test
The core contradiction in Nebius's Q1 earnings lies in the intense tug-of-war between explosive demand and execution risks on the supply side.
The earnings report itself is impeccable: AI cloud revenue reached $390 million, up 841% year-over-year, ARR surged to $1.9 billion, and adjusted EBITDA margin doubled from 24% to 45%. Long-term contracts with Meta worth $27 billion, Microsoft up to $19.4 billion, plus Nvidia's $2 billion strategic investment, form a contract visibility exceeding $44 billion. Management also explicitly stated that AI computing power has entered a "seller's pricing power" era, with spot prices having room for sustained upward movement.
However, the market's focus has shifted from growth rate to contract quality and capital discipline. Microsoft subsequently intensified its review of Nebius's data center projects, exited some high-risk projects, and paused signing new deals, causing Nebius's stock price to drop over 20% at one point. Customer concentration is also unavoidable—confirmed contracts with Microsoft and Meta total about $32 billion, accounting for roughly 80% of the $40 billion customer commitment, and only about 36% of backlog orders are expected to convert to revenue within two years.
Conclusion: Nebius's AI cloud demand narrative still holds, but the real test from the earnings report is whether it can prove its delivery execution certainty is sufficient to match its aggressive expansion pace during the window when Microsoft is tightening its "new cloud" exposure.$XAU Three big Federal Reserve officials lined up calling for rate hikes. Williams said inflation is too high, Musalem said AI infrastructure is pushing prices up, and Daly directly said it still needs to tighten. The probability of a rate hike rose from 67% to 80% in one week. Strangely, the market is moving in the opposite direction: gold surged to 4100, US stocks rebounded across the board, and the dollar actually fell. Tuesday's CPI is the last inflation data before December 9. Gold support is at 4054/4000, resistance at 4143/4200. Gold is rising instead of falling; has safe-haven money all gone into gold?"Bitcoin has entered another difficult phase after briefly falling below $74,000, increasing concerns about the strength of the current market structure. BTC's latest decline has pushed it below its 50-week moving average for the first time since September, ending a seven-week period above this important technical indicator. The selling pressure has been accompanied by massive liquidations across the cryptocurrency market. More than $1.15 billion in leveraged positions were reportedly liquidated Looking at the data: Bitcoin ETFs saw a weekly outflow of $1.28 billion, Ethereum $365 million, and IBIT alone had a $400 million outflow on Friday. BTC has turned negative cumulatively this year, and ETH has been bleeding for six consecutive weeks. Prices have also fallen back to around $75,000-$76,000. Retail investors are still waiting for a rebound, but institutional funds continue to flow out; this divergence is a warning sign. But don’t just look at the surface. ETF outflows don’t mean insLast week's market dealt a cold shower to all investors hoping for a "shift to easing." The U.S. October nonfarm payrolls surged by 165,000, more than double the expected figure, directly pushing the probability of a Fed rate hike of 25 basis points in December back up to nearly 80%! Tightening expectations have returned, instantly reshaping global asset pricing logic. On one side, the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields surged strongly, while the Nasdaq and S&P weekly charts fell into a "four-week losing streak"; on the other side, international oil prices plunged about 13% in a single week, locked in a fierce tug-of-war between "diplomatic cooling reducing risk premiums" and "oil tanker attacks causing supply disruption risks." Viewpoint 1: Nonfarm payrolls reignite bets on December rate hike, providing strong support to the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields The U.S. labor market shows remarkable resilience, with multiple Fed officials turning hawkish, emphasizing that "even with tech stock sell-offs, further rate hikes are still possible." The U.S. dollar index (DXY) promptly recorded its largest single-day gain in nearly five months, putting pressure on the euro, pound, and yen. Traders need to closely monitor upcoming inflation data and officials' remarks, guarding against spread widening risks around data releases, and avoid blindly shorting the dollar against the trend. Viewpoint 2: The 13% weekly plunge in crude oil is just a "removal of risk premium"? The shipping powder keg remains unresolved Influenced by expectations of U.S.-Iran diplomatic cooling after the U.S. midterm elections and concerns over oversupply, Brent and WTI crude oil both plunged about 13% in a single week. However, frequent attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz keep the tail risk of supply disruption high. Crude oil (UKOUSD) is currently in a "risk premium"$ENS $ETH Damn it! The ETH order book is acting so weird, repeatedly hitting and absorbing at the 2128 level, clearly some funds are secretly accumulating. Brother Lie has been watching for a long time, sell orders are being withdrawn quickly, a typical manipulative wash trading tactic, got it?
From a pure technical perspective, the 4-hour chart shows low volume sideways consolidation, with solid support at 2120 below. In this kind of fund battle on the order book, once volume breaks through 2150, it will be a sharp rally. 💡
Suggest lightly positioning around 2128.63, stop loss at 2105, target first at 2185. Don't chase the highs, wait for a pullback to buy.
If you want to follow, check the real-time order book on the market card below. Brother Lie can only point this out, following trades is voluntary, profits and losses are your own responsibility. 👇👇👇I'M WATCHING A BIG LONG ON $AEVO .
EP: 0.0188–0.0190
TP:0.02067
SL: Below 0.01719
Hard sell-off into 0.01719 got completely absorbed. Strong 4h recovery candles flipped the short-term structure and pushed price back above 0.0188.
Buyers stepped up aggressively. As long as 0.01719 holds, the long remains valid. Break that low and it’s done.
Momentum is building. Watching closely.
$AEVO
#USCPIDecemberRateWatch 1. Cryptocurrency Market Quick Update 1. Top Trader Joshua Updated at 10:27 AM Beijing Time on November 7: Even after the largest hacker attack in history, the outflow of funds from IBIT (BlackRock Bitcoin Spot ETF) remains minimal. Even though the stock market environment is almost at its worst, the cryptocurrency market has remained quite resilient. If investing before the end of this year, the entire crypto market could potentially enter a bull run from now until next summer. Genuine large-scale buying should have clear catalysts, such as changes in the macroeconomic environment or major news events. Before these catalysts appear, the market is expected to mainly move sideways. What can be done before then: Conduct more research and prepare in advance on on-chain data. Establish independent and clear core investment theses for each potential investment target, then gradually filter and narrow the scope of observation. Regarding the stock market, it still seems necessary to continuously monitor the biotech and robotics sectors. (Joshua believes there will be a crypto bull market from the end of this year to next summer.) 2. Trader Mockingbird Updated at 4:56 AM Beijing Time on November 9: As hardware companies, namely the semiconductor sector, fall out of the market spotlight due to factors like climate change, I think we should start preparing for the next round of trendsThe cash flow of aerospace companies and the rise and fall of tokens are two different matters.
When looking at commercial aerospace, both cash consumption and project delivery must be considered; when looking at tokens, you can't rely solely on narratives. Rocket Lab is scheduled to release its Q3 earnings after the U.S. stock market closes on November 9.
$BTC is currently priced at about $73,903, down 2.67% in 24 hours; if it can stabilize first, it will be easier for other coins to recover on a more solid basis.
Looking at $PI, it has dropped 13.34% in 24 hours, priced at about $0.063. The weakness far exceeds the broader market, and liquidity and concentration of holdings should be carefully studied.
In comparison, $ONE has dropped 24.50% in 24 hours, priced at about $0.0015. Behind such a magnitude, attention must also be paid to order book depth, not just the red and green numbers.
The risk structures differ greatly; you can't put all high-volatility assets in one basket. Corporate orders, profits, and capital expenditures are one set of accounts, while token price supply and demand and liquidity are another.
Would you look at cash flow first or market sentiment?
#RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% #US October CPI Preview: Will December Rate Hike Expectations Change? The upcoming US October CPI is the most important inflation report before the Federal Reserve's December meeting, directly determining whether market rate hike expectations will shift. Previously, stronger-than-expected nonfarm payroll data has already increased market bets on a December rate hike. The current mainstream market expectation: overall CPI and core CPI will likely rise about 0.3% month-over-month. There are two scenarios: ✅ If CPI exceeds expectations and inflation rebounds: expectations for a 25bp rate hike in December will quickly heat up, the dollar will strengthen, and US stocks will come under pressure; ✅ If CPI is significantly below expectations and inflation continues to decline: the market will lower the probability of a rate hike, even repricing to "maintain rates unchanged," giving risk assets a breather. Focus should be on core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, as this is the inflation trend the Fed cares about most. Housing and service prices are the main drags on core inflation and are key points to watch this time. The Fed's bottom line is clear: if inflation does not continue to fall toward the 2% target, it will keep the option to tighten further. This CPI report is a watershed for the short-term market. Before the data release, market funds will remain cautious and volatility will increase. For forex, gold, and US stock traders, tonight's data cannot be missed. $BTC $ETH $SOL The day before yesterday, during Applied Materials (AMAT)'s earnings call, management mentioned that "AI-related equipment orders are booked through the second half of 2026." This detail didn't make the news headlines, but $SOXL closed with a long lower shadow at 47.89. Betting on the equipment chain's boom at over 20x, selling at 55.14, a 302.77% gain.
Equipment suppliers are at the very upstream of the semiconductor cycle; extended order visibility means the entire sector will enjoy at least two quarters of high prosperity. Luck can't be replicated, so lock in principal and weld down losses. If you missed out, don't worry, the next opportunity will come. $BTC $ETH Technically, it is extremely oversold, but under a strong bearish trend, this is by no means a safe "bottom-fishing" signal.
Trend and Moving Averages: Dropped from a high of 302.40 to 38.82, currently MA5/10/20 show a perfect bearish alignment (49.62/58.93/74.29), with the mid-term trend completely controlled by bears.
Momentum and Indicators: Price is suppressed below the SUPERTREND resistance at 79.17; although KDJ has entered the oversold zone, it is prone to low-level stagnation during a one-sided plunge, limiting its reference value.
Token Discount and Premium Risk: SOXLUSDT is an on-chain derivative; recently, the underlying SOXL once plunged 38% in a single day. The token side (low at 38.82) experienced a deeper dip compared to the underlying (low at 40.59). The perpetual contract's funding rate and liquidity friction will further amplify losses.
Operational Suggestions
Strictly avoid heavy positions and long holding: SOXL itself is a daily reset 3x leveraged ETF, which suffers fatal volatility decay in a choppy down market, continuously eroding principal over the long term.
Better to wait and see: Currently, moving averages are diverging downward, and a right-side buying point has not yet appeared. Blindly catching a falling knife is not recommended. If participating in a rebound play, be sure to use a very small position and set strict stop losses; do not hold through losses.
#软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ $SOXL It's past midnight, brothers, are you still glued to the screen, watching this sea of green short-term funds, excitedly calculating that a big counterattack is coming, wondering if you can break even tomorrow?
Quickly wash your face and sober up! It's the middle of the night, and the more I look at the fund flow backend, the colder my spine feels. Don't be fooled by this illusion; this is a classic "fellow townsmen don't leave" script, the drama of chives and sickles is playing out.
Look at $BTC and $ETH, in the short term these past few hours, both contracts and spot are indeed pouring in money crazily. The green bars look pretty good, but if you look at the longer cycle to the right, Bitcoin's 30-day contract net outflow is a full 9 billion, and Ethereum has nearly 7.9 billion running away. What does this mean? All these short-term funds are just playing a game of hot potato to lure more buyers; the real big money has long taken advantage of the rebound to grab their buckets and run.
Interestingly, among these three, only $SOL's long-term spot side shows something. Not only is there net inflow for 15 days and 1 week, but even the 30-day period stubbornly holds nearly 200 million inflow. It seems there really are some stubborn whales or big holders quietly accumulating at the bottom, but that doesn't mean it will fly immediately. If the overall market continues to lag, it will get hit too.
My view: late at night is the easiest time to get carried away, but the long-term outflow is the truest trend. The big money is strategically retreating, so don't be cannon fodder; go to bed early and take care of your hair 🤣
What do you think about this late-night short-term rally? Is it a dog whale luring more buyers, or is there really some mysterious capital supporting the market? How many of you are still staying up late watching the market tonight?
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ this feels more like still catching breath after a washout, not like the mood has switched back to excitement. This time I stand by "ETH is high beta amplified by leverage," not "weekend risk appetite first hits altcoins." According to OKX spot, BTC current price 74639, 24h -1.63%, volatility 3.56%; ETH current price 2134.71, 24h -4.54%, volatility 8.18%, clearly heavier on this side. CoinDesk quoting CoinGlass: 24-hour liquidations exceeded $1 billion, longs about $913 million; ETH about $448 mThe U.S. stock market feels like it has bottomed out, but crypto still feels a bit short of that.
The RSI14 for NDX and NVDA has both dropped below 30.
The last time NDX's RSI was this low was at the end of March 2026 when the U.S. and Iran went to war; the last time NVDA's RSI was this low was in April 2025 during the tariff war.
NVDA's daily RSI even shows divergence, which is rare for U.S. stocks as their RSI usually moves in sync.
But Brother Feng still didn't dare to buy NVDA; not afraid of a mistress, just afraid the mistress is actually a spy, so he bought some QQQ instead.
As for crypto, it still feels a bit off, mainly because although funds are flowing into USDC and USDT, the inflow is very small.
However, I don't think BTC's low point will be extremely low. When the community members see a drop, they look at 30,000 or 49,000... This is Huang Renxun cheating, not a Bitcoin fork... The impact of non-liquid negative factors is limited.
Brother Feng can't think of any major liquidity negatives coming up. The December rate hike is expected, and even another hike in Q1 next year wouldn't be very surprising. U.S. Treasury yields have risen a bit recently, Trump's stance on Iran has softened, and oil prices have dropped quite a bit today. Although there might be a rebound related to the U.S.-Iran situation and oil prices, it probably won't lead to a major black swan event, right?#软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ 3. Capital-level constraints: financing, valuation, exit pace
OpenAI burns money at an extreme rate, requiring massive new financing every year. SoftBank is one of the main funding providers:
- Can decide whether to continue increasing investment and under what conditions;
- Can coordinate with other major capital such as Middle Eastern sovereign funds to jointly impose governance, commercialization, and IPO timetable requirements on OpenAI;
- The risk is tied back to itself: if OpenAI's growth falls short of expectations or the IPO is delayed, SoftBank will face significant pressure from this high-cost debt (bond coupon close to 10%), and rating agencies have already issued a negative outlook.$SOXL: Based on my recent trend analysis, the potential bottom-fishing zone for $SOXL is around $40–$43. Under normal market conditions, the likely bottom could be in the $38–$40 range, with a possible extension toward $35. In a more bearish scenario, the major bottom could be around $30.
For those considering mid-term or longer-term positions, accumulating gradually on dips below $43 may offer better opportunities. A leverage of 2x–3x should be sufficient for this strategy.#DailyOrbit Rocket Lab's GAAP EPS for this quarter, I estimate between −0.08 and −0.09, while Wall Street estimates −0.07. Just based on the company's own guidance, it's off by 1 cent. There is a bridge loan it never used, and after deducting interest on the new money, it will further reduce EPS by about 1 cent. The results will be released after the market close on November 9 Eastern Time. Its small rocket Electron has launched 99 times as of November 2, and it is still building the medium-sized rocket Neutron. Additionally, it is building satellites for the U.S. Space Development Agency, with two contracts totaling over $1.3 billion. On October 14, it announced that Neutron's maiden flight was postponed to 2027 due to voids found in the composite dome of the first stage propellant tank. The stock price peaked at 150.23 this year and closed at 53.07 on November 6. This quarter's numbers can be roughly calculated based on the company's August guidance. Revenue between $250 million and $265 million, GAAP gross margin 29% to 31%, GAAP operating expenses between $143 million and $149 million, net interest income of $21 million, and 641 million shares outstanding. Taking the midpoint and deducting two to three million in taxes, EPS is about −0.078, which rounds to −0.08, already worse than −0.07. After issuing the guidance, an additional expense appeared. At the end of June, to acquire Iridium, it signed a $3.6 billion bridge loan with Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo.$XAU Direction: Short
· Entry: Short when the rebound is resisted near 4135 - 4140 (close to the resistance just above the current price).
· Stop Loss: Firmly stop loss if it breaks above 4145 (above the previous high).
· Take Profit: First target 4080, second target 4045 (near the previous low).
⚠️ Note: The price is approaching the previous high resistance zone again, MACD momentum above the zero line is weakening and showing signs of a bearish crossover. Beware of a double top pullback. Do not short directly; wait for rebound resistance confirmation, use light positions with stop loss.To put it simply, this round of adjustment is a macro liquidity tightening. CME FedWatch shows a 78% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December. After strong non-farm payrolls, the hawkish stance hasn't eased, pushing real yields higher and suppressing risk asset valuations. $BTC dipped to 73700 intraday, $ETH fell below 2100, with longs concentrated in liquidations, causing deleveraging and risk aversion to collide. ETF funds are still marginally flowing out, and US regulatory expectations are tightening. Tomorrow at 21:30, the October CPI will be released, with the core month-on-month consensus at 0.2%. This figure will be the final decision point—any deviation will rewrite the entire policy path. Watch $SOL first, don't rush to act.🚨 Oil prices suddenly plunged, but BTC, ETH, and U.S. stocks may not necessarily keep rising! With the Strait of Hormuz negotiations, the market might not have fully accounted for this yet.
This round of market movement is interesting: risk assets want to go up, but the rally consistently lacks sufficient momentum.
Iran has signaled a possible abandonment of charging fees for the Strait of Hormuz, and the market quickly priced in expectations of eased geopolitical tensions. International oil prices came under pressure accordingly, with Brent crude briefly falling near $95, and WTI weakening in tandem.
However, I believe what truly deserves attention is not whether Iran charges fees, but what the U.S. ultimately aims to achieve through these negotiations.
1. What the U.S. really cares about may not be just the Strait fees
The Strait of Hormuz plays a critical role in global energy transportation.
For the U.S., restoring freedom of international navigation, weakening Iran’s leverage over the strait, and reestablishing regional security order are clearly more important than simply canceling a fee.
In other words, the fee issue is just one part of the negotiations, which involve energy transport, sanction policies, and geopolitical influence.
2. Temporary easing does not mean a final agreement has been reached
Currently, the market has started to price in potential easing expectations around reopening the strait, maritime restrictions, fund unfreezing, and halting attacks on vessels.
But differences remain on nuclear issues, sanction relief, and ceasefire conditions.
This means the current optimism is still based on the assumption that negotiations will continue to progress.
As long as any of these key elements change, oil prices and the entire#ASTS promotes direct phone-to-satellite connection service, commercialization progress pending announcement
ASTS could book 13 rocket launches in 2027 and 32 by 2031 with just eight Falcon 9 and two New Glenn flights potentially carrying ~40 BlueBird satellites in 2027.🚨 Another liquidation, another re-entry... but is 100x leverage really worth the risk? 👀
Big Brother Maji has once again become the market focus, this time facing a massive liquidation on Hyperliquid!
It is reported that his 540 ETH long position was completely liquidated when the market suddenly dropped, leaving his account balance at only about $16,000. But he didn’t stop there; he turned to simulated trading and opened another 100x ETH long position.
Meanwhile, his on-chain account reportedly still holds a 25x leveraged long position of up to 690 ETH, valued at over $1.4 million.
Currently, the floating profit is about $8,000, but the liquidation price is already very close to the current market price.
This is the harsh reality of high-leverage trading: even a slight market reversal can wipe out all profits and even principal instantly.
Whales may have the capital to start over, but ordinary traders don’t have unlimited chances to learn from mistakes.
Don’t mistake lucky survival under high leverage for true trading skill. Protecting your principal is itself a form of trading ability.
Trade rationally, stay patient, and don’t let FOMO cloud your judgment.
#Hyperliquid #ETH #加密货币 #杠杆交易 #风险管理 #OKX
#DailyOrbit $ZEC Direction: Short
· Entry: Short when the rebound is resisted around 1205 - 1215 (near the resistance just above the current price).
· Stop Loss: Firmly stop loss if it breaks through 1230.
· Take Profit: First target 1178 (near previous low), second target 1150.
⚠️ Note: Overall in a wide-range oscillating decline phase, rebound highs gradually lowering, MACD dead cross above zero line with green bars appearing. Do not chase shorts directly; wait for rebound to confirm resistance, use light positions with stop loss.SNDK, ETH, NVDA Late Night Market Commentary (Personal Perspective, Not Investment Advice)
Anyone here understand? I woke up in the middle of the night to check the market and almost thought I was holding my phone upside down. It used to be the crypto world playing by itself, but now the US stock market and crypto are "bathing" together, and this water is really cold. Veteran traders staying up late to review the market, bringing you the hard facts.
$SNDK (SanDisk/Storage Giant) has been a roller coaster that makes people want to vomit. It plunged from 1198 all the way down to 790, a 44% drop in 30 days, but after the earnings report came out (EPS 49.51, far exceeding expectations), it was forcibly pulled back to 899. A typical "sell the rumor, buy the news" scenario, combined with a 12.56% turnover rate, making short-term trading extremely brutal.
$ETH followed the market down to 2051, now at 2134. Besides being dragged down by the US stock market macro environment, there’s also trouble at home—the Ethereum Foundation’s former employee sued Vitalik and five others. ETH’s high beta characteristic is very strong now; it falls like taking a laxative and rebounds like squeezing toothpaste. Let’s first see if it can hold above 2100.
$NVDA dropped from 211 to 170. Although it released new technologies like GROOT 2, the funds simply aren’t buying it. US tech stocks are having their valuations slashed, and Nvidia is the first to take the hit. It’s down nearly 24% in 30 days. It looks like it’s forming a bottom, but until the right side emerges, don’t be stubborn.
In summary: Macro pressure and emotional double whammy. Traditional asset tokenization (TradFi) hasn’t escaped this wave either, getting ground down along with the underlying stocks. Don’t keep thinking about bottom fishing.$BTC Direction: Long
· Entry: Buy on a pullback near 74,700 - 74,900 with stabilization (close to the current price support below).
· Stop Loss: Firmly stop loss if it breaks below 73,385 (below the previous low).
· Take Profit: First target 75,600, second target 76,000.
⚠️ Note: Overall, it is in a low-level oscillation rebound repair phase after a sharp drop, with MACD golden cross below the zero line and strong red bars. Do not chase the high directly; wait for a pullback to confirm support, and trade lightly with stop loss.Rocket Lab's US stock after-hours earnings report, what is really being traded in the crypto space?
The company's earnings report was released after the US market closed on Monday, but the crypto space was already trading risk appetite early. Rocket Lab had given a Q3 revenue guidance of $250 million to $265 million.
$BTC is currently priced around $73,903, down 2.67% in 24 hours; if it can stabilize first, it will be easier for other coins to recover with a more solid foundation.
Next, observe $ETH: about $2,094, down 6.46% in the past 24 hours. A single day’s drop cannot determine long-term value, but short-term risk is very apparent.
$OKB is currently about $96.19, down 5.96% in 24 hours. It is not traditional company equity, so valuation methods cannot be simply copied.
Corporate performance and token prices do not have a direct conversion formula; at most, we first observe sentiment transmission. Earnings reports can change US stock market expectations but cannot directly change the cash flow of on-chain assets.
Will you trade expectations in advance, or wait to confirm after the earnings report?
#RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% $SUI SUI has been generally weak recently. Even if there are occasional small rebounds, the follow-up support is insufficient, making it easy to be pushed back down. Although the underlying ecosystem has been continuously updated, short-term capital inflow willingness is weak, and selling pressure remains. In this market, don't rush to push up; whether the support level can hold still needs to be seen.🔥 Is the mid-term trend of $UNI not over yet? Whether the DeFi leader can usher in the next round of catch-up depends crucially on the Wave 4 correction!
Recently, many mainstream coins have been searching for new directions. In my view, besides $ZEC and $HYPE, $UNI also deserves to be on the key watchlist.
As an important representative in the DeFi sector, UNI's performance not only relates to its own trend but also reflects the risk appetite of some DeFi funds.
From a technical structure perspective this time, I am more focused on whether it is completing a mid-term correction and whether there is a chance to start Wave 5 upward afterward.
📈 1. Is the five-wave structure gradually forming?
According to Elliott Wave Theory, UNI's current trend can be divided into the following stages:
- Wave 1 (June 5 – July 31): Rose from $2.32 to $4.58, initially breaking away from the previous weakness, and the rebound trend began to form.
- Wave 2 (July 31 – August 14): Fell from $4.58 to $3.17, completing the first technical correction.
- Wave 3 (August 14 – September 23): Quickly rose from $3.17 to $10.94, becoming the strongest upward phase in the entire trend.
- Wave 4 (September 23 to present): Entered a correction cycle, the market began digesting previous gains, and short-term bullish and bearish forces rebalanced.
- Wave 5 (potential stage): If the Wave 4 correction completes and the price shows renewed volume$ETH Trend Structure Analysis, let's analyze it together
• Early Surge: From July to mid-September, ETH experienced a strong bullish rally, with the price reaching a high of 2,807.67.
• Pullback from Highs: After peaking in late September, the market entered a clear downtrend channel, with consecutive bearish candles, and the price steadily declined from around 2800.
• Current Status: The price is currently hovering near 2,100, at a recent low area, with a short-term bearish bias.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
• Support Below:
◦ First Support: Around 2,063 (24-hour low)
◦ Second Support: The 2,000 round number (psychological support level)
◦ Strong Support: Around 1,800 (upper edge of the earlier consolidation zone on the left side of the chart)
• Resistance Above:
◦ First Resistance: Around 2,246 (24-hour high)
◦ Second Resistance: Around 2,400 (rebound high during the previous downtrend)
⚠️ This market review is for idea sharing only and does not constitute investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile; please manage risks carefully!🚨 Bitcoin is dropping, but leverage is climbing. That’s a dangerous combination!
Glassnode data shows BTC Open Interest surged nearly $1.5B during the recent selloff.
More leverage means more volatility, and one sudden move could trigger massive liquidations. 👀
Is this the setup for a bullish rebound or a liquidation trap?
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #Glassnode #OKXOrbit
#DailyOrbit $BTC family! Bitcoin is currently priced at 75,000. The trend over the past two days is just like sliding down a slide. A few days ago, it experienced a sharp drop. Although it caught a slight breather and rebounded a bit, it never stabilized and was immediately crushed by the bears. The current situation is very clear: the bulls have completely surrendered, and the market is full of panic selling. This kind of deep, bottomless decline is the most exhausting. Do not blindly guess where the bottom is, because there might be a basement below the bottom. Technical indicators perfectly show a bearish trend. The EM standard bearish alignment pattern shows weak rebounds. The MACD indicator shows extremely heavy selling pressure. The Bollinger Bands indicate a one-sided downward channel, meaning the downward momentum is still strong. Any rebound without volume will be seen as a bull trap.
Bull and Bear Practical Strategies
Bearish main strategy: Short at 75,500-76,000 on rebound, stop loss at 76,500, target 74,000 - 73,000
Bullish auxiliary strategy: Light long positions at 73,000-73,333 if stabilized, stop loss at 72,500, close positions at rebound to 74,500 #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% #RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ 🚨 TAO vs RENDER: Both AI Coins, But Very Different Games!
$TAO focuses on decentralized AI networks, while $RENDER powers GPU computing. Both have strong narratives, but real demand matters more than hype.
📊 TAO: $222.44 | Volume: $40.7M
📊 RENDER: $1.54 | Volume: $15.53M
The real winner will be the project that proves lasting demand, not just attracts attention.
Which one has stronger long-term potential: TAO or RENDER? 👀
#TAO #RENDER #AI
#DailyOrbit Cryptocurrency Trading Strategies and Market Psychology Analysis Host: @梁老表 I. Market Overview and Trend Analysis 1. Bitcoin Pullback and Support Level Judgment Currently in the Wave 2 Pullback Phase: The market is currently in the Wave 2 retracement phase of the larger cycle (weekly level). The overall bull market trend remains unchanged, but short-term intense shakeouts are expected. 73,000 Points as the Core Defense Level: The 73,000 to 74,000 range (i.e., the MA200 daily average holding cost line) is a strong support zone for bulls. If this level is broken, market confidence will be severely damaged and may further decline to the 67,000 to 70,000 range. 76,000 to 77,000 as the Key Rebound Level: If the market can close with a bullish candle this week and retake the 76,000 to 77,000 range, it will help restore bullish sentiment and support subsequent rebounds. 2. Ethereum Deleveraging Risk Ethereum's Deleveraging is More Intense: Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum deleverages faster during the adjustment phase, with more volatile and erratic movements, making it prone to sharp flash crashes and liquidation events in a short time. Clear Spot Investment Range: For spot trading, the 74,000 to 77,000 range is considered a dollar-cost averaging zone, suitable for buying in batches on dips. II. Core Trading Strategies and Risk Control Recommendations 1. Bitcoin Position Building and Stop-Loss Strategy Left-Side Position Building to Play the Rebound: It is recommended to build long positions on the left side of the 73,000 to 74,000 range, aiming to play the market rebound with a risk-reward ratio of over 1:2. Strict 1,000-Point Stop-Loss Setting: Long position stop-loss must be set below 72,800 to 73,000; once broken, it mustSnapshot: 2026-11-09 23:56:31 (Asia/Shanghai). The current unfinished K-line may participate in real-time alerts. Scan: 77 core, 73 successful, 4 failed; Current top 20 gainers' signal hit rate in the past 48 hours: 0.0% (0/20). Coverage incomplete: Among them, historical K-lines are less than 4, others failed 0; these targets cannot be treated as no signal or low risk. 【Official Early Warning (up to 3)】 1. ARB-USDT｜Base 7｜Quality 82｜24H volume 8.29 million Current price 0.18424｜Entry 0.1805～0.1832075｜Trigger 0.1805 Stop loss 0.1575015｜Take profit 1 0.21838212｜Take profit 2 0.2633916 Basis: 4H box volume breakout, 4H low point raised, 4H double bottom recovery; daily/4H volume 1.22/2.83; 24H 8.41%, 7 days 18.24%. Already broken through, waiting for pullback to entry zone, do not chase the rise 【Preparation Observation (up to 5)】 1. AVAX-USDT｜Base 7｜Quality 85｜24H volume 10.38 million Current price 8.978｜Entry 9.17～9.3075｜Trigger 9.17 Stop loss 7.6406｜Take profit 1 11.636｜Take profit 2 13.2341 Basis: Near 4H box upper edge, 4H low point raised, 4H double bottom recovery;#Vitalik重提ETH价值存储定位，手续费销毁还是核心吗？ This narrative shift is driving the linkage between layer 2 and computing power assets. AMD surged sharply today with high volume. My judgment is that short-term sentiment has entered an exuberant zone, and chasing highs has a low cost-performance ratio.
Up 12.7% in 24 hours, the price shot up from around 439.63 to 505.26. The 1-hour level is still running near the top, having risen 24.86% from the low point, but the 4-hour structure has not yet turned bullish and is still 12.93% below the high, indicating this wave is a pulse correction rather than a trend confirmation. The trading volume is only 70,000, open interest 14,000, funding rate zero, leverage sentiment cautious; order book top 10 levels show 12 buy orders and 6 sell orders, strength ratio 2.07, buyers have short-term advantage.
Strategically, a light long position can be taken on a pullback to 486.35, stop loss at 470.85, target 512.6; if it directly surges to around 514.25 and stalls, then lightly try short, stop loss 521.8, target 492.4. Keep position size within 20%, volatility increases after sharp rises, be sure to set stop loss.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading.——
$AMD#Vitalik重提ETH价值存储定位，手续费销毁还是核心吗？
#Vitalik重提ETH价值存储定位，手续费销毁还是核心吗？
$AMD 🚨 Jensen Huang's open letter sparks speculation: Is this just a personal controversy, or is Nvidia's management facing a bigger test?
Recently, there has been a lot of discussion in the market surrounding controversies related to Jensen Huang. Looking at the currently circulating timeline, I think this matter deserves to be re-examined from both business and political perspectives.
First, a detail worth noting: if the controversy had already entered the view of the U.S. political arena, why did the open letter and a series of responses only appear after the congressional investigation gained attention?
Of course, these timelines and the causal relationships behind them still require more reliable information to confirm; we cannot conclude there is some political arrangement based solely on the order of events.
But I believe what truly deserves attention is not just the personal controversy, but the position Jensen Huang holds.
First, Nvidia is no longer just an ordinary tech company.
As one of the core enterprises in the global AI industry chain, Nvidia holds significant influence in U.S. tech competition and Sino-American industrial relations. Jensen Huang has long needed to navigate the complex balance between different markets, policies, and business interests.
This position brings huge business opportunities but also entails higher political sensitivity.
Second, management stability may become a new market focus.
If the controversy continues to escalate, outsiders will naturally pay attention to the board's stance, corporate governance, and whether the senior management team is affected.
However, a personal controversy does not equate to operational problems for the company, nor can it directly imply that Jensen Huang is about to step down.
ThirdOn the four-hour chart, the $PENGU perpetual contract moving average system has completed a golden cross with multiple alignments, and the MACD continues to expand above the zero line, indicating a complete bullish trend structure with no signs of weakening.
On the one-hour chart, after the price retraced to around the 42.87 entry average price, it clearly stabilized, with lows never breaking previous lows, indicating insufficient short-term bearish momentum. The logic of determining direction on the larger timeframe and finding rhythm on the smaller timeframe is validated here.
This 20x leveraged long position opened at 42.87 and reached a marked price of 45.89, yielding a floating profit of +140.89%. The key is not guessing the direction but waiting to act only after confirming the support zone.
If the price retraces again to the 43-44 range and the one-hour chart shows stabilization signals, it is still possible to observe with a light position; the first take profit at 45.89 has been reached, the second target is around 48-50, and the stop loss is uniformly set below 41.5. $BTC $ETH #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ Four years of price history can flatter an asset or expose it. Set alongside drawdowns, the records of $BTC, $ETH and $OKB tell a more useful story than returns alone: endurance, not speed, separates them. $BTC leads on four-year returns and has absorbed the deepest wound of all, a historical maximum drawdown beyond 70%. Yet its current slide from the 2025 peak is roughly 53% — severe, but shallower than its own worst episode. That gap matters. Bitcoin has now survived multiple halving cycles an