Orbit Post Sitemap
After hackers steal large amounts of assets, stablecoins (USDT/USDC) can be urgently frozen by the issuers, but ETH cannot be frozen. Therefore, hackers prioritize converting stablecoins into ETH and gradually selling them off on decentralized exchanges (DEX), creating continuous and targeted selling pressure on ETH. $ETH Additionally, hackers still hold approximately 467,000 to 525,000 ETH (worth over $1 billion), which constitutes a huge potential oversupply, continuously suppressing market seJust put the baby to sleep, then saw Core Trader 90 shorting $BTC with 40x leverage, position size 5 coins. 🍼
I don't take a large position as evidence of bearishness, but I care more about the pressure behind the leverage. Roughly calculating, excluding fees, if the price moves about 2.5% against the position, the loss would equal the initial margin, leaving very little room for error in judgment.
With my small amount of capital, I would first consider how much loss I can bear. When buying groceries, I still need to keep enough budget for a week; watching the market also requires leaving some margin for myself. Seeing "crypto financing doubles," my first reaction was that the bull market is back, but after checking the details, I realized I was overthinking it.
1.65 billion, Kalshi alone accounts for 1 billion, making up 60%. The remaining projects combined total 651 million, slightly less than last month. It's like the class average was pulled up by a top student, while the other students actually fell behind.
The most striking part is that if you remove the two largest amounts, the remaining money is the same as last month, not a penny more.
So don't rush to see if $BTC $ETH will rise or not; this round of money is for product makers, not for coin speculators.Senbei 11.9 Afternoon Session｜BTC breaks 74,000 again in the afternoon, how will the US stock market respond tonight?
At noon, BTC even touched 75,060, but by the afternoon it had dropped back to 73,751, a decline of about 1,309 points. ETH also fell from around 2,146 to 2,081, losing the 2,100 level again. The rebound at noon lasted into the afternoon, but both supports were broken. Next, if the price bounces back, first see if the original supports can be reclaimed; the subsequent highs have been capped below these two levels. Currently, BTC is around 73,800, ETH around 2,091, both not far from the morning lows.
There is a new variable in the US stock market tonight. Nvidia's board announced it has launched an independent investigation regarding reports that CEO Jensen Huang might be a target of foreign intelligence activities. Reuters earlier recorded an off-market quote of about 180.30, roughly 3.4% lower than last Friday's official close. The US stock market opens at 22:30 tonight; I will watch Nvidia, the Nasdaq, and crypto prices together. If tech stocks continue to weaken, BTC support near 73,385 and ETH near 2,052 will be tested again.
Regarding oil prices, Trump said if negotiations progress, the possibility of further strikes on Iran is lower, while Rubio stated that talks have made limited progress. How oil prices move next will continue to influence market inflation expectations. The US October CPI will be released tomorrow at 21:30; if core inflation is hotter than expected, watch if the 2-year US Treasury yield rises.
BTC's afternoon rebound was pressed down from 75,060 to around 74,630, with the 1-hour close falling below the noon focus at 74,444. ETH also closed below 2,116 on the 1-hour chart, and the 15-minute rebound was capped near 2,100. Both coins' 4-hour closes remain below their respective 20-period moving averages. Currently, I am treating this as a weak consolidation after a breakdown, waiting for prices to return near original supports before seeing if they hold.
For BTC, wait for 74,450 to 74,650, near the lower edge of the noon session and the 14:00 rebound high. Wait for the 15-minute close below 74,400, then if a rebound from 74,350 to 74,400 is resisted, consider shorting. Stop loss at 74,900, placed above the afternoon rebound high, corresponding to about 500 to 550 points. Target 1 is 73,750, target 2 is 73,400; if it breaks below the early morning low, then look at 73,000.
For ETH, wait for 2,115 to 2,125, near the noon lower edge and the 15-minute 20-period moving average. Wait for the 15-minute close below 2,110, then if a rebound from 2,107 to 2,110 is resisted, consider shorting. Stop loss at 2,135, target 1 at 2,082, target 2 at 2,055; if it breaks below the early morning low, then look at 2,000. Before entering, if BTC closes above 74,650 on the 1-hour chart or ETH closes above 2,125 on the 1-hour chart, pause the corresponding short plans.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC at 74k is a very critical position, hoping it can hold; if it can't, then brace for half a year to a year of waiting.
Never expected to reach 73k in this way... North Korean hackers and the US circuit breakers aren't as fierce as Huang Renxun's moves. I originally planned to go all-in on a black swan event, only to realize this is the real black swan 😭
This morning, retail investors were still very bullish, but the main players withdrew all large orders above 65k. Now retail is still enthusiastically long, while the main players have placed large orders at 70k. Strong altcoins are no longer hitting recent lows, but BTC is still probing the bottom, which is very rare...
The over 10k pullback I called at the end of September has already happened, a 13,000 dollar drop, nearly 16%. The weekly chart shows five consecutive bearish candles, the 3-day moving average is converging, and the daily, 3-day, and weekly charts are all oversold. BTC is still struggling in the negative gamma zone... I believe there is still a very strong demand for a rebound, but if 74k doesn't hold, then it's game over, and spot holders should just play dead.
Brothers, what do you think? Will it plunge straight down to 68k, or shoot like an arrow through the clouds to 80k?Short-term green candles can be the most misleading signal in crypto. The latest flow data around $BTC tells a story of divergence: spot and futures inflows lit up over recent hours, yet the 30-day net futures flow has drained roughly $8.4 billion. That gap matters. It suggests short-term capital is bidding up price while larger players use the recovery as an exit ramp. Retail spot buyers, meanwhile, appear to be quietly accumulating cheaper names near the bottom rather than chasing the headlineOctober financing doubled, sounds exciting, but the reality is different.
Out of $1.65 billion, $1 billion came from Kalshi's Series G round, accounting for 61%. Remove it, and the remaining projects have $651 million, which is even lower than the entire industry's $665 million in September. The so-called recovery is a figure propped up by a super individual case, not an industry-wide increase.
Peeling another layer: excluding the two largest deals of the month, the remainder is $451 million, almost the same as September's $455 million. Doubling the total amount but stagnating after removing the top deals is the most important comparison to remember.
The real money inflow is in two directions: payments with $342 million, with Whop alone at $200 million; RWA with $137 million, Spiko $90 million, Meanwhile $37.5 million. Capital no longer pays for narratives, only for things that can generate cash flow.
Institutions are indeed expanding: 155 participants, 16% more than September; Tether invested in 4 rounds, Sequoia in 3 rounds and led all of them. Less money, more bettors.
$BTC and $ETH won't get this infusion in the short term; money is not intended to enter the secondary market for liquidity. When capital concentrates on a few verified projects, what do the rest survive on? October saw 46 financing rounds and 13 acquisitions—acquisitions might be the main exit channel going forward.$75,775 has been broken.
On Sunday night, $BTC dropped from above $75,600 to about $73,477 within an hour. This is the lowest since August. The current price is around $74,800, down about 1.4% for the day. $ETH is around $2,128, down about 5% for the day. This marks the fifth consecutive week of decline.
The reason for the drop is not on-chain but in policy expectations. After the midterm elections, the Democrats took both chambers. The CLARITY Act has already stalled in the Senate since September, and traders are pricing in stricter regulations.
The turning point is tomorrow, with the October CPI release. If inflation is soft, first see if it can hold above $75,775. If inflation is hot, the 200-day moving average at about $73,170 is the next line. The conditions are set here; no conclusion yet.Even if you get eight out of ten trades right, your account can still lose money. Why? Because what ultimately determines whether you make money is not just the win rate, but a more critical factor: whether you control those losing trades well. Many traders seem to have a high win rate and quite a few profitable trades, but when you look at the account curve, you find the capital is stuck in place or even decreasing. The problem often lies in these five areas. 1. The win rate looks high, but the capital curve never rises. For example: Ten trades, eight each earn 100, but the other two each lose 500. The eight winning trades earn a total of 800, but the two losing trades lose 1000. After ten trades, not only is there no profit, but a loss of 200. This is a typical case of high win rate but low profit-loss ratio. So when reviewing your trading strategy, never just look at how many times you guessed right; you must also record average profit, average loss, and overall profit-loss ratio. The win rate only tells you how many times you were right; the profit-loss ratio helps you see the value of each judgment. 2. Can't hold onto profits, but always try to stubbornly hold losses. Just after making a little profit, you worry about giving it back and quickly close the position to lock in gains. Once a loss appears, you start comforting yourself: wait a bit longer, maybe it will rebound. This eventually forms a very bad habit: holding profitable trades very briefly, but holding losing trades longer and longer. Remember, the market won't change direction because of your entry cost. Before opening a position, you should clearly decide where to set stop loss and the maximum loss you can bear. Once the preset condition is triggered, follow the plan.$SOL is being pressured on both ends today. Coinglass reports 85.4, down 4.2% in 24 hours, down 21.8% in 30 days, and it was still around 109 a month ago.
On the protocol side, Anza's Gabe Rodriguez proposed SIMD-0723 on November 5 to retire the durable nonce. In April, Drift lost $270 million relying on it: pre-signed multisig transactions remained valid, allowing attackers to submit them at chosen times. The draft will take effect as early as May 2027, with no alternative plan yet; custodians' cold wallet offline signing will need a complete rewrite by then.
Money is flowing out. According to SoSoValue data, the SOL spot ETF saw an outflow of $25.08 million on November 6, with a net outflow of $26.25 million from November 2 to 6 over the week.
All the contracts taking hits are longs. The entire network holds $5.15 billion in positions, with $5.98 billion in daily contract volume, and only $600 million in spot. Liquidations in 24 hours reached $40.89 million, with longs accounting for $38.74 million. Binance's long-short ratio is 3.43, OKX's is 3.59; despite a month of decline, longs are still buying the dip.
The nonce retirement is still six months away, so it can't push the price down; the pressure comes from ETF outflows and these long positions. Over 90 days, it’s still up 12%, having risen from around 75 in August. The long-short ratio dropping below 2 and several days of ETF inflows are needed to hold the 80 to 85 range; longs have not withdrawn, so the day they get squeezed out will likely see a drop straight to 75. $BTC $ETH $75,775 has been broken.
On Sunday night, $BTC dropped from above $75,600 to about $73,477 within an hour. This is the lowest since August. The current price is around $74,800, down about 1.4% for the day. $ETH is around $2,128, down about 5% for the day. This marks the fifth consecutive week of decline.
The reason for the drop is not on-chain but in policy expectations. After the midterm elections, the Democrats took both chambers. The CLARITY Act has already stalled in the Senate since September, and traders are pricing in stricter regulations.
The turning point is tomorrow, with the October CPI release. If inflation is soft, first see if it can hold above $75,775. If inflation is hot, the 200-day moving average at about $73,170 is the next line. The conditions are set here; no conclusion yet.Bitcoin's downward move this afternoon is not the same as the drop at dawn: the dawn drop was due to leverage being liquidated, while during the day, leverage was added back.
At 5 AM, within one hour, the price fell from around 75,750 to a low of 73,500. OKEx's total contract open interest dropped from about 3.827 billion USD to 3.706 billion USD, a decrease of approximately 121 million USD in one hour. By 7 AM, it rebounded to 75,738, looking like a washout.
Afterwards, the price gradually retraced, currently around 74,180, about 2% lower than the rebound high and about 680 above the dawn low. However, open interest did not decrease accordingly; by 4 PM, it returned to about 3.773 billion USD, recovering more than half of the 121 million USD wiped out at dawn.
Funding rates are also rising: 0.0013% at midnight settlement, 0.0021% at 8 AM, 0.0096% at 4 PM, with the next estimate still around 0.01%. The price is falling, but those holding long positions are paying more.
Therefore, the nearby 73,500 level is not a fully cleared position; it is holding the new long positions accumulated during the day. 73,500 is the lowest since August 21. If it truly breaks below, the first to break will likely be this batch of traders.
$BTC Maji blew up again, then immediately opened another position
Maji blew up again. This morning at 05:51, 540 $ETH long positions were fully liquidated at an average price of about $2192, wiping out the entire position, leaving only $16,610.
He withdrew the remaining approximately $16,600 to a demo account, where he lost $1.62 million; even the $485,000 reward couldn't cover the losses, and the account is still down about $1.14 million.
Shortly after the blowup, he acted again: sold 3 BAYC, withdrew 100 $ETH from Coinbase, gathered $53,000, transferred it back to Hyperliquid, and opened a new $1.48 million $ETH long position.
This isn't the first time: on October 15, he grew $56,000 to a $12.25 million account which was then liquidated down to just $21,800; on October 24, he blew up again, accumulating losses over $35.37 million; on October 30, he deposited $250,000 to restart, and today it's gone again.
Three blowups in one month, Maji hasn't changed the script.The October CPI will directly test the current market consensus of a "high probability of a rate hike in December." After the Federal Reserve chose to hold steady at the October meeting, funds have concentrated the main rate hike window on the December 8-9 meeting, with the current probability of a rate hike above 75%.
The core significance of this data lies in whether it can make the market reassess "whether inflation stickiness is still sufficient to support another rate hike."
The scenarios roughly split into two extremes. If the core month-on-month increase is significantly below 0.2%, and pressures from housing and services continue to ease, the probability of a December rate hike may fall from the current high level, and the market will reconsider the possibility of "pausing after one rate hike," with long-term yields and the dollar potentially under pressure.
If the core month-on-month increase reaches or exceeds 0.3%, and the price increases are broad-based, the rate hike expectations will be further locked in, possibly even triggering pricing for a more hawkish subsequent path.
Currently, the market has priced in December action at a relatively high level, so "meeting expectations" may have limited impact on the rate hike probability; exceeding expectations is the real variable. Recent fluctuations in energy prices remain the main disturbance to overall CPI, but the Federal Reserve focuses more on the core trend.
After the data release, it is necessary to judge whether to change the policy narrative based on the component structure. For trading, this is the last key inflation anchor before the December meeting, and price sensitivity to core components will be higher than to the overall figure.#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ The US October CPI will be released on November 10 (8:30 AM Eastern Time), and it is one of the most important inflation data points before the December FOMC meeting. The overall CPI year-on-year for September has risen to 3.7%, with the core year-on-year around 2.6%. The market generally expects the overall month-on-month for October to be about 0.24%-0.3%, and the core month-on-month about 0.2%, mainly supported by a slowdown in gasoline price increases and a decline in some commodity prices.
The expectation for a rate hike in December is currently high. CME FedWatch, Polymarket, and others show about a 76%-80% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December, with about a 20% probability of no change. The October meeting was held steady, pushing the window for action to December.
If the core month-on-month lands at 0.2% or below, and subcomponents (especially housing and core services) do not show significant acceleration, it may slightly reduce the probability of a rate hike in December; if the core month-on-month rises to 0.3% or above, and the diffusion is broader, it will further consolidate or even increase rate hike expectations.
For the market, single-month data will not solely determine policy but will significantly affect interest rate path pricing. Soft data is favorable for a decline in US Treasury yields and a breather for risk assets; hot data strengthens the upward pressure on the dollar and yields. Focus on core services, housing subcomponents, and signs of energy transmission to the core. Before the December meeting, there are also November employment and more inflation data; this CPI is key but not the only variable. #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ When I saw this message, my first reaction was not "regulation again," but rather: crypto assets have moved one step closer to ordinary property. I think this is beneficial for legal certainty, but it cannot be directly translated into a positive impact on coin prices.
On November 9, the Administrative Office of the Supreme Court of South Korea announced that the revised Civil Execution Rules took effect on November 1, clarifying the procedures for seizure, transfer, and liquidation of crypto assets. Platforms holding coins can seize users' asset transfer requests; assets in personal wallets can be prohibited from disposal and must be handed over to enforcement officers for management, then lawfully sold or transferred to creditors.
What really matters is that creditors now have a clearer path to recover assets. The number of civil enforcement cases involving related platforms increased from 423 in 2023 to 3,136 in 2025, and reached 3,186 in the first nine months of 2026. This volume indicates that the execution rules respond to real disputes, not just theoretical fixes.
For ordinary users, I want to remind myself: holding private keys does not mean assets are outside the law. But just because courts can issue orders does not mean on-chain assets will automatically be received. If actual enforcement still depends on debtor cooperation, then there may still be a gap between clear rules and smooth execution — this is my speculation.
I will continue to observe how far actual enforcement can go, rather than rushing to label this news as bullish or bearish.BTC's trend one year after the midterm elections!
Long-term value investing is not about buying into trends, but about finding stable value assets within the trend and holding them at a reasonable price. $BTC $ETH
#BTC现货ETF连续流出 You might think the problem with CORE is that no one is supporting its price, but what’s even more painful is that it’s losing even the qualification to be traded. A four-year cycle has passed, and are you still waiting for it to tell a new story? Recently, I reviewed CORE’s price trend, and my biggest feeling wasn’t anger, but calm. Without institutional endorsement or major capital support, the market depth is basically sustained by retail investors betting against each other and system matching. In this structure, rebounds often just follow the overall market sentiment and rarely develop into independent trends. What’s more alarming is that the time cost has already sunk: after completing the four-year cycle, the ecosystem hasn’t taken root, market cap hasn’t grown, and the price has returned near the starting point. This actually indicates that its development logic has already failed once. But I want to correct a common misjudgment: many people attribute CORE’s weakness simply to the “project being no good,” ignoring the cross-market linkage transmission. At the current stage, the risk appetite of BTC and ETH is the master switch for altcoin rhythms. Capital first looks at the certainty of mainstream assets before deciding whether to penetrate downward. Without real incremental capital entering CORE, it means it’s at the end of the linkage chain—when the market rises, it lags; when the market falls, it bleeds first. This is not a narrative issue, but a capital priority issue. Even on the bullish path, one must stay clear-headed: if there is substantial business progress later, or breakthrough capital injection, combined with BTC stabilizing and driving risk appetite recovery, CORE theoretically could have a corrective emotional catch-up rally. But the potential risk is also obvious: without ecosystem and market cap support, the asset is most likely to become a distribution target during divergence phases, reversing.Unitree rises again by 6.63%, shorts lose money every hour
UNITREE perpetual contract currently at $104.26, up about 6.63% in 24 hours. From 9 AM to 3 PM today, there were 7 consecutive negative settlement rounds, with a peak hourly rate of −0.258% at 11 AM. The current reference rate remains at −0.144%, annualized over 1400%.
The painful part is for the shorts holding on. The address starting with 0xfdf1 began shorting on October 20, with a cumulative net funding payment of $112,100 over 20 days, exceeding 113.70% of its 10x leverage-adjusted initial margin (about $98,600). Including unrealized and realized losses, the total loss in this round is about $430,400.
For those holding contracts, just watch one number: the liquidation price for this address is $124.36, about 19.2% above the current price as a buffer. If the funding rate doesn't turn positive, this contrarian short position is essentially exchanging principal for time.Ethereum has dropped, so why is Arbitrum's token still rising?
$ETH is quoted at 2,143.77 USDT, down 4.2% in the last 24 hours, while $ARB is at 0.1718 USDT, up 1.2%. The divergence occurs in the latter half of the rebound: ARB has already surpassed the pre-drop level around 0.167, whereas ETH remains below the previous sideways level of 2,230. Technically, the two are related, but short-term trading differs. When trading on Arbitrum One, fees are generally paid in ETH, and buying ARB is essentially bidding for governance rights and ecosystem expectations.
As another layer-2, $OP hasn't followed ARB's trend. OP is quoted at 0.09985 USDT, down 1.5% in the last 24 hours, bouncing near 0.10 before dropping again. The OP mainnet also uses ETH to pay fees; more chain usage means more transaction fees. However, this time the market prices for OP and ARB have diverged. Looking at these two trends, saying that layer-2 tokens are strengthening together doesn't align with OP's market performance.
Let's compare with SOL. At 87.8 USDT, down 1.6% in the last 24 hours, its drop is close to OP's, but the fee payment paths differ: Solana's base fees and optional priority fees are paid in SOL. When the network is congested, how much users are willing to pay for priority reveals how urgent transactions are within applications. It's convenient to place public chain tokens and layer-2 governance tokens on the same price movement list, but what's truly useful is knowing what currency users ultimately use to pay those fees.$BTC Short-term holders underwater at ~$75,700 — that level is resistance now, not support. #BTC #Bitcoin$BTC $ETH crypto market leverage levels are retreating, with funding rates for Bitcoin ($BTC) and Ethereum ($ETH) nearing neutral, indicating speculative positions are not overly crowded. However, this does not mean the downtrend has reversed, as key spot buying has not kept pace. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of 1.28 billion last week, with a very sudden shift in funds—from net inflows on Monday quickly turning into net outflows by Saturday, as institutions concentrated their withdrawals, favoring a risk-off exit. Ethereum ($ETH) is experiencing a more prolonged situation, with spot ETFs having outflows for six consecutive weeks, totaling approximately 2.02 billion, continuously draining market sentiment. The leverage bubble being squeezed out means positions are no longer crowded, but this does not equate to a market turnaround. Without sustained spot buying support, the market lacks new backing forces. The focus now shifts to the upcoming CPI data release, which will determine whether this round of ETF outflows is just a short-term cleanup or the start of a long-term institutional portfolio adjustment. Until spot capital flow improves, the market is more likely to trade sideways or continue to probe lower. Inflation data is the most important macro test ahead.Right now, many groups are discussing OKB, and it's mostly all criticism. A consensus has been reached that no veteran players dare to play anymore; it's all newcomers and newbies buying. The newcomers and newbies were fooled by a group of KOLs from Orbit some time ago. Those posting to hype it up are said to be paid promoters helping to unload tokens because OKX plans to abandon OKB, but Mr. Xu and the platform hold over 19 million OKB and want to sell. So every time someone posts to praise OKB, it's actually a slow sell-off. At this stage, it's just continuous selling; once it's all sold, OKB will be delisted, ending up like OKT. Some say it's already decided, others say it will be even worse than OKT. They say the team lacks vision and is solely focused on harvesting users. It can't compare to Binance because where is the price? All BNB holders have made money. Also, starting today, the price will keep falling. Recent Crypto Market Analysis
BTC is reported around $74,200, with a weekend dip to 73,708, marking the lowest since August, down 41% from the all-time high of 126,259 in October last year; ETH fell faster, briefly breaking below 2,100; XRP is approaching the $1 mark.
Over $1 billion in liquidations across the network in 24 hours, 90% of which are long positions, with 140,000 people liquidated — leveraged longs have been wiped out in two rounds.
Why the drop?
1. Regulatory shift — Democrats swept Congress, with strict regulator Warren possibly taking control of the Senate Banking Committee; crypto legislation pushed by Republicans over the past two years faces reversal.
2. Institutional retreat — Spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.28 billion last week, the largest since the end of June; selling pressure has surpassed the leverage layer and hit the spot layer.
3. Macro rate hikes — After a strong nonfarm payroll report, the probability of a rate hike in December is near 80%, raising the opportunity cost of non-yielding assets.
4. AI bubble resonance — The Nasdaq is undergoing a technical correction; crypto and tech stocks share the same risk appetite pool.
5. Exchange risks — The aftermath of a $6 billion theft at a certain exchange remains unsettled; the U.S. Treasury has cut off MEXC's USD channel, increasing counterparty risk.
The weekend was further complicated by scandals involving Huang Renxun and deadlock in U.S.-Iran negotiations — with U.S. stock markets closed, crypto became the only pressure relief valve.
Don't go all-in in panic, nor exit entirely in panic.
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $CORE 🚨 Only 150 minutes left until OKX reopens deposits and withdrawals for $CORE! 🕰️
If resumed according to the announced time, this will be an important window to observe liquidity.
It is worth noting that this is already the second time this quarter that CORE has experienced a suspension of deposits and withdrawals.
From the previous abnormal reward incident, to the theft of B14g staked assets, and then the exchange suspending deposits and withdrawals, CORE is facing not only price pressure but also a test of market trust and liquidity.
Resuming deposits and withdrawals does not mean trust is simultaneously restored.
What really needs to be observed next is:
Will there be concentrated withdrawals after resumption?
Will the price gap inside and outside the exchange widen?
Is CORE facing a new round of selling pressure?
The market will provide answers through capital flows.
Personal opinion, not investment advice, DYOR. NVIDIA drops nearly 4%, while Hon Hai surges nearly 6%! What exactly is the market trading this time? 🧐
The scandal involving Huang's extramarital affair continues to ferment. NVIDIA perpetual contracts on OKX once fell nearly 4%, but on the other side, the Taiwan stock market showed a completely different trend.
Hon Hai, which assembles AI servers for NVIDIA, surged nearly 6% right at today's open! In just half an hour, it not only recovered all the losses from Friday but also drove the Taiwan stock index up by more than 1,200 points.
Originally, the market was worried that the Asian markets on Monday would be dragged down by the NVIDIA news. Unexpectedly, while NVIDIA is falling, Taiwan's AI supply chain is actually rising.
The key is to clarify the timeline first:
1️⃣ Taiwan stocks closed at 1:30 PM on Friday. 2️⃣ Subsequently, the U.S. semiconductor sector rose 4.2%, and TSMC ADR surged 6.3%. 3️⃣ Today's rise in Taiwan stocks largely makes up for the overnight gains after Friday's close. 4️⃣ Huang's admission of the extramarital affair and the board's investigation started around 4 AM today, when NVIDIA's U.S. stock had not yet opened for trading.
Looking at the crypto market, OKX's NVIDIA perpetual contracts fluctuate around $180, and the funding rate has turned negative, meaning shorts are starting to pay funding fees to longs.
What really deserves attention is the U.S. stock market opening tonight.
If NVIDIA's stock really opens 4% lower, how much of today's 1,200+ point gain in Taiwan stocks can hold tomorrow?
Short-term sentiment is one thing; how capital truly prices it is another.
Tonight, keep a close eye on NVIDIAMy first reaction: It’s like seeing someone pushing a shopping cart into a supermarket, and someone next to them immediately shouts, "New spending has arrived!" But I want to ask: Bro, did you just get paid, or did you return goods to the neighboring store? 😂
According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi’s monitoring, 0xFD1…6FEe3 bought 10,000 ETH through CowSwap at an average price of $2,149.25, worth about $21.49 million. ETH has become the largest on-chain asset for this address. I think this transaction is big enough, but it can’t be directly taken as evidence of new industry capital inflow.
The reason is simple: the data doesn’t explain the source of funds, and the purchase scale doesn’t equal the scale of new funds; a single address doesn’t represent all positions held by the owner. If related addresses are simultaneously reducing holdings, then the overall exposure may not increase synchronously — this is my speculation and needs further verification.
Would you rather first check the source of funds or whether related addresses have done reverse operations? I choose the former; even when watching the drama, you have to see which cart the melon was unloaded from first.Sandisk (SNDK) Stock Split First Day: $835 "Visually Cheap," But Valuation Disagreement Remains
On November 9, Sandisk's 1-for-8 stock split officially took effect, with each share split into 8 shares. Trading with the adjusted split price will begin on November 20. Last Friday's closing price was $835.06, with intraday fluctuations ranging from $816 to $912, ultimately closing near the lower end of that range.
The stock split does not change any fundamentals but presents a clearer choice: a company with a forward PE of only 3.67 times and a long-term contract locked in for about 50% bit shipment in fiscal year 2027, yet the market is only willing to assign this multiple. Before the split, Wells Fargo and RBC had just cut their target prices from $1550 and $1600 to $1300 and $1400 respectively, citing "shrinking earnings multiples"; meanwhile, Bernstein's pre-split target price of $3000, after the split, equates to about $375, still several times above the current price.
The stock split lowered the per-share price to a "visually cheap" range, but $835 is just arithmetic, not a valuation answer. The real issue remains unresolved: how many times the market is willing to multiply a cyclical profit that will eventually decline. After trading begins with the split adjustment on November 20, whether incremental buying can offset this gravitational pull is what should be watched next.Bitcoin prices continue to decline, and market panic is spreading, but on-chain data shows an intriguing divergence: long-term holders' positions are starting to loosen, while short-term holders remain relatively stable in sentiment.
According to on-chain data from November 5, the realized loss scale of chips transferred by long-term holders (LTH) to exchanges reached 139 million, indicating that some older chips held for a long period can no longer withstand the ongoing pressure in the market and have chosen to exit. In contrast, short-term holders (STH) have not simultaneously triggered panic selling of the same scale. After sufficient turnover in the previous period, the average holding cost of the short-term holding group has dropped to the 75K–76K range, and the current coin price is just near their breakeven line, so no concentrated stop-loss has been triggered.
Another key signal worth noting: although the absolute scale of realized losses across the market remains high, the losses have not continued to accelerate. This sends a clear message—market panic does exist now, but the momentum for further panic spread is weakening. I personally tend to judge that BTC is currently in the early stage of a bull market, undergoing a challenging chip restructuring period. $BTC #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ An address under continuous surveillance did something counterintuitive on-chain.
In August this year, the address 0xde8d...9524 related to the UXLINK security incident pushed a large amount of funds into Hyperliquid, establishing long positions on $ETH, $SOL, and $XRP perpetuals: about 30,282 ETH, 550,000 SOL, and approximately 35.03 million XRP, with a nominal value close to $148 million, quietly maintaining the positions for nearly three months.
Common sense suggests that assets of unknown origin should be quickly layered, transferred, or disappear. Instead, it put the money into a public, leveraged contract account and then took directional bets.
On November 9, it used TWAP to gradually close the long positions in batches, completing execution in about 16 hours, exiting around 6 a.m. the next day. Estimated losses were about $3.3 million. Losing $3.3 million on a $148 million position is just a few percentage points, far from liquidation. This was not a forced liquidation but a paced surrender.
Why at this timing? One can only speculate: the heavy position exposure was too obvious, continuing to hold meant bearing volatility under the spotlight; the tracked identity combined with large contracts inherently created uncertainty. The pressure may not have come from price.
Previously, tracking stolen assets ended with where the money stopped; now funds may complete the cycle from opening to closing positions within decentralized derivatives. Attackers can also be wrong about direction—should "hacker profits" be deducted by losses?Last week (November 2 to 8), risk assets were generally weak. The crypto market briefly rebounded midweek, but after a sharp drop in US tech and storage sectors on Friday, risk sentiment weakened again. BTC and ETH rebounds failed to sustain; crude oil's daily high signal at elevated levels was realized, while gold rebounded from its yearly low and climbed back above 4K. The main market theme remains the transmission of US stock volatility to the crypto market, while commodity trends showed divergence. BTC rebounded early in the week from a 1H low near 7.65 to around 7.85 but never managed to firmly reclaim 8W. Midweek, BTC followed the market rebound, and after ETH broke the descending line, BTC also strengthened briefly but still failed to surpass the previous high of 8.2. After the sharp US stock drop on Friday, BTC returned to around 7.6. Entering Monday morning, the price further dipped and briefly broke below the 7.5 triangle support; although a 12H low appeared, it is not yet enough to change the weak structure. ETH was pressured near 2250 early last week, broke the descending trend line on Thursday reaching near 2400, with a short-term target of 2520; however, after the sharp US stock drop on Friday, it fell back near 2200 and further broke below 2200 Monday morning, showing weaker performance than BTC. SOL hit new lows, while BNB, NEAR, and ZEC also experienced varying degrees of decline. The crypto market lacks sustained hotspots and broad profit-making effects; short-term rebounds still require confirmation from BTC, ETH, and other major coins. Regarding US stocks, QQQ failed to reclaim 730 after breaking the daily trend line previously and tested it twice. Last Friday, tech, storage, and other AI-related sectors... The hypothetical figure of “$62.6 billion” is indeed eye-catching. I used to be easily swayed by such big headlines, directly translating “possible” in my mind to “imminent.” The flawed thinking lies here: mistaking the impact of the story for the weight of evidence.
This material links marriage rumors, company investigations, and market fluctuations together, but until the original letters and announcements are verified, I won’t take it at face value. My judgment is that the most easily overestimated inference is the one that “divorce will inevitably trigger massive sell-offs”: whether there is a divorce, how assets are divided, and whether sales occur cannot be equated. If this narrative spreads to AI-related sectors, I guess the most common mistake ordinary people make is using unverified gossip as leverage justification.
Now I set two rules for myself: first, major news must be traced to original sources; second, assumptions about family wealth should not be directly treated as trading signals. Honestly, missing out on the hype once is more important than rushing to prove you’re quick to react."The earliest will be May 2027," I think this is the most significant information in Solana's proposal to deprecate persistent Nonce: the technical mechanism can be phased out, but the migration pressure cannot be dumped on users overnight.
The proposal is still pending finalization, including content such as custodians switching to a new offline signing process and the alternative program adopting different rules for failed transactions. I prefer to see it as an infrastructure migration issue rather than a market catalyst; those more directly affected are custodians relying on the existing process.
Why focus on this timing? Because adjustments to the offline signing process could impact the entire business chain. My guess is that if custodians need to simultaneously modify signing, approval, and exception handling steps, then allowing enough verification window is more important than rushing to complete the upgrade. The calendar buffer ultimately needs to translate into operational reliability.
But I also don’t want to misinterpret "there’s still time" as "the problem is solved." The proposal sets boundaries but does not complete the migration for institutions, nor can it be used to judge what experience improvements ordinary users will get. Next, I will look at whether the alternative process can be clearly explained and thoroughly tested, rather than prematurely labeling this news as positive.The overnight drop was brutal, $BTC plunged to 73,708, a new low since August, with 855 million in liquidations, long positions bore 90.2% of the losses. But the funding rate stubbornly didn’t turn negative, and Binance’s long-short ratio actually rose to 2.16; what was taken away was leverage, not positions.
$ETH was even worse, with 456 million liquidated, more than Bitcoin, so weak it didn’t even bother to struggle.
A-shares turnover was 1.48 trillion, shrinking by 175.2 billion. The surge in coal and robotics stocks looked lively, but over 3,100 stocks were falling, volume was retreating, and the faster rotation felt more like exhaustion.
The US market saw the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jump 4.21%, AMD up 11%, but the Dow was in the red. The nonfarm payrolls beat expectations, which ironically pushed up the probability of rate hikes. The chip stocks’ own rebound couldn’t lift the whole market.
Solana’s Lujiazui advertisement was stopped by the central bank before it even got popular, and the involved parties are under investigation. The regulatory cracks have never loosened.$BTC standard accumulation manipulation method, starting from the afternoon retail investors' chips were thrown out and absorbed, if no one absorbs, it would be quickly smashed through directly instead of slowly grinding hour by hour #NebiusQ3AICloudGrowth
Nebius is highly likely to meet its Q3 revenue target
because its existing June momentum already guaranteed a strong baseline. The real metric to watch is their updated Annualized Revenue Run-Rate (ARR); any infrastructure or chip delays that threaten their aggressive $7.0B+ year-end goal pose the biggest risk to the stock.There are only two reasons to follow me: first, I post the real BTC position ratio and stop-loss price every day after the market closes; second, I don’t delete posts on days I have unrealized losses. In the past 142 days, there were 37 losing days, and the screenshots are still there.
After last night’s non-farm payroll release, the probability of a rate hike was raised again, and the December CPI became the next pricing anchor. My judgment is that BTC’s sensitivity to interest rates this round is clearly weaker than in 2022: the position structure has shifted from leveraged contract longs to spot plus ETF subscriptions and redemptions. Macro negative factors now bring more volatility rather than trend reversals. The real risk is not in the data itself but in the market’s repricing of "no rate cut," where leveraged funds can’t withstand those two spikes.
My action is simple: I reduced my position from 50% to 30%, didn’t clear it out, and set the stop-loss 6% below cost; if it breaks, I’ll reduce by half again. I don’t guess the direction, I just execute the conditions.
With this round of macro negatives, do you reduce your position first and wait for the CPI release, or hold and bet that December won’t cut rates but BTC will still rise?
Follow me for daily public real position and stop-loss logic, and I write honestly even when losing.
#BTC #ETH #JobsReportRaisesHikeOdds
#OKXProphet $DOGE I saw it on the volatility list this morning, then it was -2.5% in 24 hours, and when I checked again in the afternoon, it became -3.5%.
It evaporates about one point a day, the decline is still expanding, but the trading volume can reach over 40 million dollars — the volume is not small, but the price keeps grinding down.
Some say it’s because the CEO muttered “the altcoin season won’t come back,” which dragged Doge down. Take that with a grain of salt; Doge has been falling for three months — down 20% from 30 days ago, and those who bought six months ago are still down 39%. Can one CEO’s words control Doge’s price for three months?
My take: there’s no serious capital washing the market in this volume, it’s just no one is buying, and retail investors are grinding it down bit by bit. The volatility list has now become a list of coins no one wants; Doge was last on it because of a drop, and now it’s back again. $DOGE $SNDK has broken a new low, and you're still thinking about bottom-fishing???
Old Liu already said earlier that this is definitely not the bottom. If you try to bottom-fish, he will only bottom-fish your home!
After two days of consolidation without the support of US stocks over the weekend, Monday still shows no rebound, proving that it has started to lose capital attention!
Now that the previous low has been broken, panic in the market has intensified again. The panic caused by the Democratic Party's blanket crackdown on the AI sector has not yet subsided. Institutions are not bottom-fishing, so why are you? The right move is to short on the rebound #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% $BTC is now at 75,799, appearing to have only dropped 0.19%, but it has actually fallen nearly 6% over the past three days, with the price grinding near the weekly low. Interestingly, liquidation volume has shrunk and almost disappeared, with only about 60 million in 24 hours, down 70% from the previous day. Leverage was already cleaned out by the recent declines, so it's not new money holding the position, but old positions being lifted.
$ETH is weaker, down nearly 8% in three days, without any decent rebound. The aftermath of the Binance hack and regulatory concerns following the Democrats taking Congress are hanging over, all bearish factors present, yet the price barely moves.
The Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly by 0.32%, but over 3,100 stocks declined, with turnover shrinking by 177.1 billion. Robots, coal, and 6G sectors are taking turns leading, volume is retreating, and the faster rotation feels more like exhaustion.
The US semiconductor index rose 4.21%, the AMD stock surged 11%, but the Dow Jones fell for two consecutive days. The non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, pushing the probability of a rate hike to 76%. The chip stocks have their own excitement but can't drive the whole market.#Circle Q3 revenue exceeds expectations, USDC on-chain transaction volume grows 49%# Stablecoin settlement expansion provides sentiment support for cross-chain asset DOT, but the market has yet to confirm. I judge that DOT's short-term trend is still dominated by technical factors, with weakness unchanged.
Price dropped 4.9% in the past day, quoted at 0.8521, almost touching the intraday low of 0.8406; the four-hour chart shows a 21.65% retracement from the high, with a clear downward structure. The top ten sell orders in the order book total 35,000, outweighing buy orders of 22,000, with a buy-sell ratio of 0.62, indicating selling pressure dominance. Funding rate is -0.0157%, open interest at 10.536 million, bearish sentiment is relatively strong.
Strategy: Light short positions can be tried on a rebound to 0.8613, with stop loss at 0.8746 and target at 0.8268; if volume breaks below 0.8406, enter short at 0.8385, stop loss at 0.8521, target 0.8172. Single position should not exceed 5% of total capital, exit immediately on breakout.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$DOT#Elon Musk expects SpaceX to exceed $100 billion in annualized revenue by year-end
#Circle Q3 revenue exceeds expectations, USDC on-chain transaction volume grows 49%
$DOT How much fluff is really hidden in CORE's buyback rescue roadmap?
The two core narratives of the 2026 roadmap: large-scale lock-up bringing a huge BTC staking volume, and ecosystem revenue converted into continuous buybacks to support the token price, were once the most important logic supporting market confidence. But now, after the b14g coin theft and the price continuing to decline, investors are beginning to re-examine the fulfillment quality of this blueprint. First is the fluff in the "30 billion lock-up" narrative: the Bitcoin lock-up scale in the promotional statements mostly involves time-locked staking, not permanent lock-up; after expiration, users can freely unlock and withdraw. Once market expectations turn cold, staked funds will quickly flee, and the locked volume can shrink at any time. Coupled with competition from other projects in the sector, projects like Babylon continuously poach BTC staking users, so CORE's actual new staking increments fall far short of early promotional expectations. Second is the market's high hopes for the buyback rescue promise: the roadmap clearly states that ecosystem-generated revenue will be used to buy back CORE, offsetting token inflation lasting 81 years and improving the token economic model. But so far, there is no on-chain verifiable record of large-scale buybacks; the narrative remains at the planning stage without real capital inflows. Without real buybacks in cash, inflationary selling pressure cannot be effectively hedged. Adding to this is the fatal impact of the b14g vulnerability, and the controversy over hard fork ledger modifications severely damaging decentralized consensus, greatly undermining project governance credibility. Now with liquidity continuously drying up and prices hitting new lows, it is difficult for investors to continue buying purely based on PPT expectations Last Thursday, the four major spot ETFs all saw outflows. BTC had a net outflow of $1.28 billion, ETH $365.28 million, SOL $26.25 million, and XRP $529,510, with none showing positive inflows.
First, let's look at how the numbers are distributed. BTC accounts for the vast majority, ETH about 30%, SOL dropped to the tens of millions, and XRP only around fifty-some thousand. In the same week and same direction, the scale differs by three orders of magnitude.
So this is not "four coins being abandoned together," but rather four different situations masked by the same numbers. The $BTC and $ETH ETF pools are large and have frequent subscriptions and redemptions, so any redemption amount naturally looks huge; $SOL and $XRP outflows are small, possibly because subscriptions were never high to begin with, so it doesn't indicate panic.
Mechanically, a net outflow from spot ETFs means authorized participants redeem shares and sell the corresponding spot assets. This chain doesn't consider sentiment, only prices and spreads; it answers "who can convert the asset to USD at the current price," not "who is optimistic about the future."
My judgment: this round looks more like institutional portfolio adjustment and profit-taking, not systemic withdrawal. The real focus should be next week—if $BTC sees net outflows for a second consecutive week without a reduction in scale, then that would indicate a trend; a single week can only be considered noise.
A question to leave you with: when all four ETFs turn negative simultaneously, can you tell which is being sold and which simply has no buyers? These two scenarios look exactly the same on the market.Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
After amplifying orders for $AXIS, slippage on both entry and exit sides has significantly increased. Simulated slippage for buy/sell at a scale of 10,000 is 0.27%/0.27%, and for 100,000 it is 1.82%/1.60%. Large orders are estimated based on the 100,000 level cost first, not the 10,000 level.【On-Chain Trading Update｜ETH】
Detected short position opened by address 0xc532:
▪ Execution price: $2,153.6
▪ Transaction amount this time: $134,944.58
▪ Leverage: 25x
What do you think about opening a short at this position?
Note: This address has earned over $33,000 in profit in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +120.47% Circle Q3 revenue exceeded expectations, but ETH continues to fall. USDC on-chain transaction volume increased by 49%, indicating expanding demand for stablecoin settlements, while ETH/USDT dropped -6.63% in the past 24 hours, currently priced at 2,093 (OKX 1H market data, past 48 hours).
These two events occur on different chains: USDC transaction volume reflects on-chain payment and settlement activity, related to the stablecoin issuance side; ETH's price elasticity depends on its own demand growth and risk appetite, with no direct gains from this $ETH financial report.
From the 90-day high of 2,756, it has retraced -24.07%. In the past 90 days, there have been 7 days with single-day declines ≤ -4%, showing repeated downward momentum.
#CircleQ3营收超预期，USDC链上交易量增长49% 🚨 US STOCKS AT RISK OF CONTINUING TO PLUNGE AFTER THE ELECTION!
The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on November 5. History shows that US midterm election years often experience strong corrections, although not entirely due to the election.
SCENARIO:
- Selling pressure increases → S&P 500 continues to decline
- Tests EMA 200 → important support zone
- Holds EMA 200 → recovery opportunity
- Breaks EMA 200 → risk of deeper decline
The market may need another correction phase before resuming the uptrend.SpaceX's $100 billion annualized revenue target is eye-catching, but looking into the financial report, the sources of growth and profit are actually quite different.
In the third quarter, SI business revenue was about $7.56 billion, accounting for more than half of total revenue; connectivity business revenue was about $5.248 billion, contributing operating profit of about $2.367 billion, significantly higher than the SI business's operating profit of about $431 million. The fastest-growing part of revenue and the part contributing the most profit in the quarter need to be viewed separately.
The financial report also clearly mentions that SI growth is driven by cloud service agreements, the Cursor acquisition, and other factors. When analyzing subsequent growth, changes brought by existing business expansion and acquisitions must be clearly accounted for.
I find this more interesting than simply predicting revenue to multiply several times. Different businesses require different capital investments, and profit performance and sustainability may vary greatly. Putting all revenue into one total and applying a single valuation multiple easily overlooks internal differences.
If the $100 billion target is realized, it is certainly worth attention. But shareholders need to know how much profit the new revenue ultimately leaves, which businesses are contributing funds, and which still require ongoing investment.
I am willing to look at growth, but I also want to see that the growth calculations make sense. The larger the company, the more important segment data becomes; otherwise, a nice total revenue figure may cover up questions that need to be asked.
#马斯克预计SpaceX年底年化营收突破1000亿美元 $ETH 2091: Long-short ratio 3.44 and the "liquidity trap" of negative fees
Don't be fooled by "too much drop," the current market is a textbook market maker meat grinder.
• Data deception: 77% of accounts are long, but the fee rate is -0.011%. This is not a bottom, but a double kill scenario of the main force "spot suppressing + contract shorting," with contract discount proving bears hold pricing power.
• Liquidity backlash: Look at that peak in active sell volume, it's not panic selling, but the main force's market orders directly swallowing retail investors' lower limit buy orders. You place limit buy orders to catch the bottom, they use your orders to close shorts.
• Hidden landmine: Negative fees attract spot-futures arbitrage (buy spot, short contracts), which only brings short-term false bottoms. Once the basis is repaired, arbitrage closing will trigger a secondary bottom.
Trade deduction:
The 2180-2200 range above is a heavy trapped zone; any rebound is bears gathering strength. Abandon left-side limit orders to catch falling knives.
Right-side iron rule: Wait for the long-short ratio to fall below 2.5 and fees to return positive (deleveraging complete), or after a volume drop below 2050 followed by volume divergence before reconsidering.
Not investment advice. #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ The overnight drop was brutal, $BTC plunged to 73,708, a new low for August, with 855 million liquidated and longs holding 90.2%. But the high fees didn’t turn negative, and the long-short ratio actually rose to 2.16. What was taken out was leverage, not positions.
$ETH was even weaker, with ETFs seeing outflows for six consecutive weeks, another 365 million left last week, and 80% of liquidations were longs, so they didn’t even struggle.
A-shares turnover was 1.49 trillion, shrinking by 177.1 billion. The coal and robotics sectors hit their daily limits, looking lively, but over 3,100 stocks fell. Volume is retreating, and the faster rotation feels more like exhaustion.
The US semiconductor index bounced 4.21%, AMD surged 11%, but the Dow was down. The stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls actually pushed up the odds of a rate hike. The chip stocks have their own excitement but can’t lead the whole market.
Solana’s Lujiazui advertisement was stopped by the central bank before it even got popular, and the involved parties are under investigation. The regulatory cracks have never loosened.