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$ From the 7-day liquidation chart, over 90% of the bulls have been cleared out, the remaining bulls are mostly low leverage, so further decline doesn't make much sense. Even if the price breaks below 720,000, it would only liquidate about 100 to 200 million USD, and this doesn't account for retail investors increasing margin at that time. With increased margin, the liquidation price would definitely be further away, so the remaining bulls holding on tightly are hard for the market makers to har$BTC plunged to 73,708 overnight, hitting a new low for August, with 855 million in liquidations where longs bore 90.2% of the losses, and 140,000 people were wiped out. But funding rates are still battling; some say it has turned negative with shorts collecting rent, others say it stubbornly holds at 0.0069% without yielding. The long-short ratio even rose to 2.16, indicating that leveraged positions were shaken out, but positions haven't surrendered. 73,000 can't hold; 70,000 is the next stop.
$ETH barely made a sound throughout, too weak to even bother with a decent rebound.
A-shares turnover was 1.48 trillion, shrinking again. Coal, robotics, and PCB sectors took turns pulling up, but over 3,100 stocks fell. Volume is retreating, and the faster rotation feels more like exhaustion.
The US semiconductor index rose 4.21%, AMD surged 11%, but nonfarm payrolls at 165,000 far exceeded expectations. The December rate hike bet pushed above 76%, the Dow fell for two consecutive days, and the chip stocks' own rally couldn't carry the whole market.
$SOL's Lujiazui advertisement was stopped by the central bank for investigation before it even got hot; regulatory cracks have never loosened.The heavy hammer on the Nasdaq was dropped on Thursday, with a single-day drop of 5.52% and a weekly decline of 3.4%; overnight, tech stocks recovered on their own, with the index closing up a bit. At the same time, crypto did not follow — Bitcoin fell from 76,044 to around 74,000, and Ethereum retreated from 2,245 to about 2,100, bouncing once only to be sold off again. The same pool of money, one side recovering while the other continues to bleed, is no coincidence. Over the past two years, the computing power and crypto trading have been fueled by the same dollar liquidity: tech stock valuations were adjusted down first, risk appetite contracted, and the most leveraged side was washed out first. The difference lies in who receives the new money first after the washout. Stock buybacks, passive index purchases, and 401k regular investments are mechanical buying forces that automatically step in when prices fall; cryptocurrencies lack this buffer, and the only buyers are the allocation funds in the spot market channel, which are currently withdrawing — spot products saw a net outflow of $1.28 billion in one week, the worst week since June, fully reversing the inflows for the year, with $411.9 million withdrawn in a single day on Friday. To put the transmission chain in plain language: nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, while the market had only priced in 59,000; the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%; the two-year US Treasury yield rose from 4.46% to 4.51% on the same day, and the ten-year yield went from 4.84% to 4.86% — the short end rose more, which is straightforward: the market has pushed the December pricing toward a rate hike, with an implied probability of 80%. Money becomes more expensive, and the opportunity cost of non-interest-bearing assets rises,Former U.S. House Speaker Pelosi's family made a 70.9% profit from stock trading in 2024, while the S&P 500 only rose 24.9% during the same period.
Someone created an ETF based on the trades reported by Democratic lawmakers and their families, with the ticker symbol NANC, derived from her name Nancy.
By entering the TradingView code NANC/SPY, you can see whether following the lawmakers' trades actually outperforms the market.
Not just NANC, whether it's your own stocks or funds recommended by others, you can compare their performance against the market by dividing by SPY to see if they outperform or just follow the market.
NANC/SPY plots a line representing the price of NANC divided by the price of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY).
If the line goes up, it means NANC is rising more than the S&P; if it goes down, it means it is rising less. You can use daily charts with a free account.
The second chart is this line.
Since its listing in February 2023, NANC has risen 89%, while the S&P 500 ETF has risen 77%, so the line overall trends upward.
From its listing until mid-2024, it rose the fastest, then basically fluctuated back and forth for over two years.
On October 1, this line hit a new high, then in the following month-plus, NANC dropped 8.6%, while the S&P only fell 3.8%.
Year-to-date, NANC has risen 5.3%, which is actually less than the S&P's 7.8%.$BTC plunged to 73,708 overnight, hitting a new low for August, with 850 million in long liquidations absorbing 90% of the pressure, and 140,000 traders being forced out. However, funding rates are reported variably—some say it's still at 0.0069%, others say it has turned negative. The long-short ratio actually rose to 2.16, indicating that what was forced out was leverage, not positions surrendering. 73,000 can't hold; 70,000 is the next stop.
$ETH is weaker, with ETFs seeing outflows for six consecutive weeks, another 365 million fled last week, and 80% of liquidations were longs, skipping even the struggle.
A-share turnover was 1.48 trillion, shrinking by 175.2 billion. Coal, robotics, and PCB sectors took turns pulling up; 57 stocks hit the daily limit, looking lively, but 44 broke the limit down, and over 3,100 stocks fell. Volume is retreating, and the faster rotation feels more like exhaustion.
US tech stocks rallied: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 4.21%, AMD up 11%. Nonfarm payrolls at 165,000 far exceeded expectations, pushing the December rate hike probability above 80%. The Dow Jones closed down against the trend.
Wall Street calls this a dead cat bounce; the chip stocks' own rally couldn't carry the whole market.
$SOL's Lujiazui advertisement was stopped by the central bank before it even got hot, and the involved entities are under investigation. Regulatory loopholes have never loosened.#美伊外交斡旋持续，霍尔木兹通航分歧待解
Last week, oil prices took a rollercoaster ride. On Wednesday, Brent crude plunged as much as 8.7%, ending the week down about 17%, while WTI fell about 13%, marking a rare recent weekly drop.
At Friday's close, Brent was at $98.32, WTI at $90.83. This morning during the Asian session, oil prices slightly retreated, with Brent at $97.59 and WTI at $90.41, as market sentiment temporarily stabilized.
The turning point lies at the negotiation table. The U.S. President stated that as long as talks continue to make progress, the likelihood of launching a new round of strikes is low; any diplomatic progress quickly squeezes out the war premium.
However, disagreements remain. The navigation issue through the Strait of Hormuz is still the core problem. If negotiations break down, oil prices could rebound at any time. Some estimates suggest that if conflict escalates, Brent could surge to $110–$125.
From a positioning perspective, after such a large weekly drop in oil prices, shorts have mostly profited, and the cost-effectiveness of continuing to short is declining. Both bulls and bears are waiting for the next piece of news; no one dares to fully commit their positions.
Gold and crude oil have recently diverged: gold has risen above $4100, while oil prices have retreated from highs. Both are safe-haven assets, but one fears inflation, the other fears war; their concerns differ, so their trends naturally differ.
For traders, the current oil price is neither a clear trend nor a stable range. Chasing rallies risks buying at emotional peaks, while shorting risks stepping on diplomatic good news.
In a news-driven market, survival is more important than quick profits; preserving capital is essential for the next round.Geopolitical risks and capital outflows exert simultaneous pressure. Explosions reported in southern Iran, multiple oil tankers on fire in the Strait of Hormuz, risk aversion sentiment rises; meanwhile, US BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw a combined net outflow of $1.65 billion in one week, BTC ETF outflow of $1.28 billion marking the worst week since late June, ETH bleeding for the sixth consecutive week, SOL ETF ends 14 consecutive weeks of net inflows.
$BTC: Around $74,274, falling below the 75,000 mark, down nearly 2%. Resistance now at 75,000–76,000 above, key support at 74,000 below.
$ETH: Around $2,120, down over 5%, underperforming BTC. After losing 2,150, 2,100 is the next psychological support.
$SOL: Around $85.82, down 3.8%. ETF inflows end after 14 consecutive weeks, but derivatives short liquidations account for nearly 96%, with bears heavily flushed out; volatility mainly due to liquidity contraction.
In short: Geopolitical and ETF pressures combine, capital shifts from "taking turns running" to "running together." Before this week's CPI (Nov 10) and PPI (Nov 13) releases, waiting for confirmation is safer than betting ahead.
For market record only, not investment advice.
#RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ 40x leverage, my first reaction to this number is not "dare to short," but rather "how long can I wait." Core Trader 90 is shorting 5 $BTC this time, with a nominal value of about $369,800. I prefer to view it in the comparison of "correct directional bet VS withstanding adverse volatility."
Shorting can be a judgment that is realized slowly, but 40x leverage is very sensitive to entry timing. Roughly calculating based on initial margin, if the price rises 1% against the position, the unrealized loss is about 40% of the initial margin, not including fees. This does not directly give the liquidation price; the actual liquidation depends on margin arrangements.
So my judgment is: this trade is not only betting on a price drop but also betting that there won't be a large rebound before the drop. I will first look at the margin buffer, then the directional thesis, because the realization of the judgment and the position's ability to wait for realization are two different things. When evaluating this trade, would you first check the shorting rationale or the margin balance?Prediction markets are heating up, and I really have more expectations for the crypto space. Usually when buying coins, people can make up stories about price rises and falls; but in prediction markets, you have to clearly state what the event is and when the outcome will be revealed, so there's less room for stubbornness. However, odds aren't the truth—they're just judgments expressed by participants putting money on the line. When there are few participants, a little nudge can skew things. I'm quite eager to see it bring up topics beyond just coin prices, but if you click in and it's still guessing when Bitcoin will rise or fall... isn't that just watching the market after all? PONS didn't even put on a show, it just crashed straight to zero, brothers. Those who shorted this coin made a fortune.
Some people are still adding drama, using all kinds of logic to argue that this coin will definitely do well in the future. They say RobinHood is a very competitive chain, so this project can't be that bad either.
But these are completely two different things. A chain develops well because it is backed by an exchange and has fixed traffic. But whether projects on the chain can survive depends on their own fundamentals and ability to generate value.
Now many so-called "value investment" logics are worthless in the face of zeroing out. Everyone must not forcibly apply the narrative of public chains to specific low-quality projects; this is a typical case of misleading. In this market, recognizing reality is more important than anything else. Don't bury yourself for the sake of sunk costs. #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ A promise delayed twice On May 28, 2026, AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) hit a historic high of $133.09. Five months later, on November 5, the stock price fell to $28.98—a 78% retracement, with market capitalization shrinking from over $50 billion to $12.6 billion. In the same year, technical milestones were achieved one after another: in August, three BlueBird satellites were launched at once; in October, "service readiness" was announced; on November 2, the industry’s first seamless handover between terrestrial cellular networks and satellite direct networks was completed with AT&T. The technology had no issues, yet the stock price plummeted. This contrast is the starting point for understanding the commercialization of direct-to-device satellite phones: the problem lies in capacity. 1. $ASTS Technical route: Why it must be a "giant base station in space" There are two paths for D2D (Direct-to-Device). SpaceX puts eNodeB into satellites, with smaller antennas and limited capacity per satellite, but covers by a large number of satellites. $ASTS, on the other hand: each BlueBird’s deployable phased array is about 2,400 square feet (223 square meters), the largest commercial communication array in low Earth orbit history. After launching BlueBird 11–13 on August 5, the total hardware array area of 13 satellites in orbit reached about 20,000 square feet. The commercial implication is straightforward: the larger the antenna, the wider the link budget, the more$BTC plunged to 73,708 overnight, hitting a new low for August. Long positions worth 850 million were liquidated, with 90% of longs wiped out and 140,000 traders forced out. However, funding rates are conflicting—some say it's still at 0.0069%, others say it has turned negative. The long-short ratio actually rose to 2.16. The conflicting data is more frustrating than a one-sided decline. Leverage was washed out, but positions haven't surrendered. 73,000 can't hold; 70,000 is the next stop.
A-shares turnover was 1.48 trillion, shrinking by 175.2 billion again. Coal, robotics, and PCB sectors took turns leading the rally, but over 3,100 stocks fell. Volume is retreating, and the faster rotation feels more like exhaustion.
The US semiconductor index rebounded 4.21%, AMD rose 11%, but nonfarm payrolls at 165,000 far exceeded expectations. The December rate hike bet surged above 78%. The Dow closed down against the trend, and chip stocks' own rebound couldn't lift the whole market.
$SOL's Lujiazui advertisement was stopped by the central bank before it even got hot, and the involved entities are under investigation. Regulatory loopholes have never loosened.The deposit limit for a US dollar stablecoin in the Aave core pool has been fully utilized, and the risk control team wants to increase it further. This move seems more like making room for concentrated positions rather than an expansion of lending demand.
On November 8, LlamaRisk suggested on the Aave governance forum to raise the deposit cap for USDe in the V3 core market from 550 million to 750 million because the current limit has been exhausted; in the same report, the largest single supply address accounts for about 61%.
Some might interpret this as a demand recovery. The report itself clearly states: usage is concentrated in a few addresses, many suppliers are simultaneously borrowing stablecoins, so the positions are not heavily leveraged. The limit has not been officially increased yet; this is just a recommendation within the risk control process.
In the days after the new limit is implemented, we will first see who occupies the new space. If the proportion of top-tier large holders significantly decreases, it would more likely indicate demand expansion; if the same few addresses fill the new space again, then this limit increase is merely extending space for existing positions. Snapshot around 18:05 Beijing time, Binance AAVE about $131.07, 24h approximately +0.4%.
$AAVE
#AAVE #Aave #cryptocurrency Binance is in trouble, why is OKEx also falling along with it?From the latest liquidation data, these several assets lead comprehensively in long position liquidation scale across different periods, with short-term bulls continuously being cleaned out, though the intensity varies.
CORE's overall liquidation volume is relatively small, with relatively mild volatility. Only a small number of long positions were liquidated in the one-hour and four-hour periods, with no short position liquidations; the total 24-hour liquidation is 40,200, almost entirely long positions, and there were no severe chain liquidations on the market.
HYPE's liquidation intensity is significantly higher, with a total 24-hour liquidation of 15,400,200, of which long position liquidations account for 15,267,700, and short positions only 132,400; the 12-hour data also shows a one-sided trend, with a large number of short-term long positions being liquidated in concentration.
ZEC also mainly liquidates long positions, with a total 24-hour liquidation of 14,205,500, long position liquidations at 12,270,700, and short positions at 1,934,800; however, in the four-hour period, short position liquidations surpassed long positions, indicating a rapid rebound mid-way that swept out some short positions, making the market battle more intense.
Overall, the recent liquidation pressure on these assets mainly falls on the bulls. Short-term concentrated liquidations often consume short-term bullish sentiment, but a single liquidation event does not equal trend continuation; if follow-up capital enters the market, a rebound recovery is also likely.Today's market looks like two people going downstairs together: BTC is still stepping down, ETH has already missed two steps. At 18:01 on November 9, Wuxi time, OKX spot BTC was quoted at 74301 USDT, down about 2.16% in the past 24 hours; ETH was quoted at 2108.77 USDT, down about 5.74%. ETH fell more heavily from the morning report to before dinner, and the intraday rebound did not erase this gap. What’s more worth reviewing this afternoon is Ankr’s Ethereum cross-chain bridge. From 16:09 to 16:12, on-chain records show the same address initiated five successful withdrawals, with multiple tokens flowing to the same receiving address. The first transaction transferred about 83 ankrETH. Where did the money go? You can trace it along the transactions. Why was it withdrawable? What other assets are affected? Further verification is needed. This is like seeing a fire door suddenly open in a mall; security should first check the door lock, but you can’t just turn around and say all the shops on the street had no business today because of that door. ETH had already fallen more than BTC in the morning, before these five withdrawals happened. Putting the timeline back in order allows us to separate the market sell pressure from the risk of a single protocol. Tomorrow, I will watch two things: on the bridge side, wait for the official clarification on the affected contracts and the progress of handling; on the market side, see if the relative drop of ETH compared to BTC can narrow. Those who have used this bridge should first verify the chains and contracts they have interacted with. Before verification, do not add new exposure, and do not click on refund links sent in the group casually. If there is a real update, it will come first.$BTC is now at 75,799, appearing to have only dropped 0.19%, but it has actually fallen nearly 6% cumulatively over the past three days, with the price grinding near the weekly low. Interestingly, liquidation volume has shrunk and almost disappeared, with only about 60 million in 24 hours, down 70% from the previous day. Leverage was already cleaned out by the recent declines; now it's not new funds holding on, but old positions being lifted out. The funding rate is a negligible 0.0087%, the long-to-short ratio is 58 to 42, and the fear and greed index is 26. Despite all the bearish signals, the price barely moves.
$ETH is weaker, down nearly 8% over three days with no decent rebound. The spot ETF saw another 365 million outflow last week, marking the sixth consecutive week of bleeding. BlackRock's IBIT had a weekly net outflow of 1.209 billion, ranking first.
The A-share market closed at 1.49 trillion, shrinking by 177.1 billion. Coal, robotics, and PCB sectors took turns rallying, with nearly 60 stocks hitting the daily limit up, but over 3,100 stocks declined. Volume is retreating, and the faster rotation feels more like exhaustion.
The US semiconductor index rebounded 4.21%, AMD surged 11%, but the Dow Jones was down. Nonfarm payrolls came in at 165,000, far exceeding expectations, pushing December rate hike bets higher again. The chip sector's own rally couldn't lift the whole market. $SOL's Lujiazui advertisement was stopped by the central bank for investigation before it even got hot; regulatory gaps have never loosened.$449 million liquidations, ETH became the biggest loser in the entire market in one day
Ethereum fell below $2100, hitting a daily low of $2060, currently around $2115.
Over $1 billion liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, with ETH alone accounting for $449 million, nearly twice Bitcoin's $272 million.
The largest single liquidation was also ETH: a $48.16 million long position forcibly closed at $2095, with 151,000 people liquidated on the same day.
The trigger was not an on-chain incident, but legislative failure: the CLARITY Act stalled in the Senate procedural vote in September at 49-50, needing 60 votes to advance.
Former House Financial Services Committee Chairman McHenry publicly admitted fault: splitting the stablecoin bill out of the market structure bill was his mistake.
ETH spot ETFs have seen net outflows for six consecutive weeks, with $365 million outflow last week alone.
My view: ETH’s current drop is not in price but a pricing of regulatory expectations; if the bill does not restart, institutional money will not return, so observe and do not chase.
Invalidation point: ETH closes above $2300 for two consecutive days, and ETH spot ETFs resume net inflows.
Which side are you on: Is the bill stalling a bottom-fishing signal, or the start of institutional withdrawal?
$ETH $BTC
#美国加密监管：《CLARITY法案》推进受阻，401(k)规则进入最终审查
#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 With today's $ETH plummeting 6%, the liquidation for ETH contract traders in this wave of decline has been nothing short of brutal.
Open interest on contracts has now dropped to levels near ETH's price of 1850 in July.
The good news is that if the decline continues, the selling pressure ammunition is much reduced, lowering the probability of a chain liquidation. At this point, longs have been massively liquidated, and shorts have become more cautious.
Further observation is needed.
1. Stabilization and rebound phase: watch whether OI rises or continues to fall.
If it rebounds and OI steadily rises in sync: this indicates new funds are willing to enter the market to speculate, signaling a sustainable rebound.
If it rebounds but OI remains low and unchanged: this is just a weak recovery after overselling, involving minor activity from existing funds, and a secondary drop is very likely.BTC smashed down to about 73,761 monthly low, liquidating about 448 million ETH on the books, almost twice BTC's 272 million.
Weekend thin liquidity caused a flash drop from the high to the low in about 15 minutes, CoinGlass recorded over 1 billion yuan in liquidations within 24 hours, longs about 913 million, with roughly 4,800 trades also falling. ETH Binance spot at 74,244, down about -2.3% in 24 hours, daily low around 73,510; related negotiations between Intel and Iran stalled over the weekend, spot took the hit first.
Don't cover liquidation structure with BTC headlines. Before Monday's open, spot must hold firm, don't let leverage wipe out the upper license.
$BTC #BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 Brothers, daily mainstream altcoin quick report
$XRP $1.09 | $SOL $86.4 | $DOGE $0.0691
XRP is replaying the June script. The price broke below the 1.24-1.25 range support, dipping near 1.09, very similar to the pattern in June when it broke below 1.10 and then rebounded 70% to 1.70. But the premise is to first reclaim 1.24-1.25, otherwise it’s just a breakdown. There is considerable long liquidation pressure below, with 1.06 as the immediate support.
SOL is struggling near a key level. Current price is 86.4, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at 91.40 is a short-term target that must be reclaimed. ETF net outflow in October was $114 million, institutional buying remains absent. RSI at 30.88 is close to oversold, but volume is weak and no reversal signal has appeared.
DOGE’s big whales are selling. Wallets holding 10 million to 100 million coins have reduced about 120 million coins since Thursday, small whales are buying but can’t fill the gap. Price at 0.0691, 0.068 is the next important support; breaking below would further weaken the structure. RSI at 35 is weak but not oversold, sellers still have room.
Discuss in the comments, do you believe in this "historical replay" of XRP? 👇
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $RSR  From a technical perspective, RSRUSDT is currently at a very critical turning point:
1. Candlestick pattern: After bottoming at 0.001206 earlier, it formed a V-shaped reversal. It has now broken through and stabilized above EMA20 (0.001618) and EMA60 (0.001560), indicating a clear bullish trend.
2. Indicator convergence: MACD shows a golden cross above the zero line with expanding red bars, and STOCHRSI is in a neutral to strong zone, suggesting momentum for further upward movement.
3. Path projection: As shown by the red line in the chart, there may be a short-term pullback to test the EMA moving averages (around 0.0016) to confirm support, which is a healthy "mid-air refueling."
4. Target level: The first target is near the previous high of 0.002580. If it breaks through with volume, the upside space will fully open.
Trading advice: Buy on dips, stop loss if it breaks below EMA60. Always use stop loss and avoid blindly chasing highs. How much funding does Oklo currently have, and when will its power plants be able to generate stable profits still need to be answered separately.
As of the end of September, the company had approximately $3.131 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable debt securities; net cash outflow from operating activities in the first three quarters was about $111 million. The book liquidity can indeed alleviate some of the recent financing pressure, but you cannot simply divide these two numbers to estimate how many years the company can operate in the future.
The reason is specific: as construction progresses, equipment and engineering investments will change, and operating cash flow does not include all investment expenditures. The speed of fund usage may vary at different project stages.
My focus on nuclear power commercialization is shifting from "whether there is demand" to "how much money and time are needed to sustain power supply." Customers needing electricity is one thing; the company delivering according to agreed costs and timelines is another challenge.
Having sufficient funds is certainly an advantage, at least allowing the team space to advance engineering and approvals. But ultimately, it depends on each project's budget, construction milestones, and actual power generation performance.
This is also where my patience with companies like this lies: willing to wait for engineering progress and hoping for increasingly detailed disclosures. The cash balance brings peace of mind, but where the subsequent funds are spent and what progress is exchanged for will determine how long that peace of mind lasts.
#Oklo推进核电项目建设，商业化进展受关注 Elysium mainnet hype cools down before launch, MEV controversy adds pressure
Elysium's mainnet launched on the evening of November 9, but the hype backed by Hyperliquid did not carry through to the starting line. The testnet recorded over 6.379 million transactions, with cross-chain bridge inflows exceeding 210,000 HYPE tokens, worth about $15.48 million. The inflow was 12.4 times the outflow, yet market enthusiasm had already begun to wane before launch.
The most directly affected are the early investors and the Launchpads rushing to go live. In the past 24 hours, Elysium's Launchpad trading volume was about $21.19 million, with over 66,000 tokens issued. The scale expanded quickly, but the wealth creation effect did not keep pace.
A key point to watch is the MEV bot controversy. The fairness of transactions is being questioned, which adds pressure to the most fragile trust link of the new chain. Whether the on-chain transaction and token issuance pace can hold after the mainnet launch will reveal more than just the initial opening spike.Are U.S. retirement accounts really about to become a new source of funds for the crypto market? The U.S. crypto market may be on the verge of a noteworthy policy change. On November 5, the U.S. Department of Labor submitted a final rule regarding 401(k) retirement plan investments in alternative assets to the White House for review. The scope of investments includes private equity, real estate, and the potential allocation of digital assets through related investment products. To briefly explain: 401(k) is a very common employer pension plan in the U.S., where employees can regularly contribute from their wages to accumulate funds for retirement. Because these accounts are large in scale and have long investment horizons, any change in investment scope could have a profound impact on the capital markets. Of course, this policy is not without controversy. Previously, Senator Elizabeth Warren and others expressed concerns about the arrangement, believing that including highly volatile assets like cryptocurrencies in retirement investment options could expose ordinary workers to risks beyond their expectations. The Department of Labor’s push for rule adjustments aims to give retirement plan managers more investment choices, provided they meet prudent evaluation requirements. What truly deserves attention is not that American retirees will immediately start buying Bitcoin, but that crypto assets may gain a broader institutional allocation channel in the future. If the final rule is successfully implemented, some 401(k) plans may indirectly gain digital asset exposure through target-date funds, asset allocation funds, and other investment products. These funds typically target long-term retirement savings, with investment horizons thatThe early morning spike hit 73,500, with over 800 million blown up in four hours, and longs held on to 740 million. But $BTC funding rate is only 0.0028%, and the long-short ratio even rose to 2.86; what was pushed out were leveraged positions, the positions themselves haven't fully cleared.
$ETH liquidations reached 358 million, even more than Bitcoin, so weak it didn't even bother to struggle.
The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.32%, with turnover shrinking by 175.2 billion to 1.48 trillion. Coal, winter sports, PCB, and robots took turns leading gains, but over 3,100 stocks fell, the board lock-up rate was just over 50%, volume is retreating, and the rotation is so fast it feels like exhaustion.
US nonfarm payrolls came in at 165,000, far exceeding expectations, with December rate hike bets pushed to 78%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 4.21%, AMD rose 11%, but the Dow was in the red, core assets didn't keep up, making this rebound look more like a technical correction after overselling.
$SOL's Lujiazui advertisement was taken down before it even got hot, stopped by the central bank for investigation; regulatory gaps have never loosened. There's a trapped position above 75,700; if it can't hold above, it's just a rebound.$ETH daily MA200 (2,154.89) was effectively broken down, with the price running below the BOLL lower band (2,116). The $48.16 million long position forced liquidation just cleaned up leverage, but the funding rate remains positive — this is a trend breakdown, not an oversold panic sell. 11/7 low volume sideways 65,427 units → 11/8 late night collapse → 05:00 spike to 2,060 → rebound to 2,168 → 15:00 broke 2,083 again → 16:00 rebound to 2,125 then pushed back down. Lower highs + lower lows, structure intact. 11/7 low volume sideways 65,427 units → 11/8 late night collapse → 05:00 spike to 2,060 → rebound to 2,168 → 15:00 broke 2,083 again → 16:00 rebound to 2,125 then pushed back down. Lower highs + lower lows, structure intact. Volume: today 10-hour trading 184,690 units, equivalent to full day 443,000 units = 1.92 times volume. 4h sequence: 9,767 → 149,163 (crash) → 55,814 → 81,442 (second kill) → 45,793. Selling pressure not weakening. $ETH leverage cleanup (today's core event) 05:55 Binance ETH perpetual single order $48.16 million long forced liquidation, trigger price 2,096 $BTC market is rotten, no buyers, no one to take over, needs time to digestIn the current cycle, I pay more attention to the depth of the drawdown rather than the time progress,
because time only indicates how long the grinding has lasted, while the depth of the drawdown reveals how much further the decline can go and whether the chips have truly changed hands; we are still in a rate-hiking cycle, ETFs are experiencing net outflows, and leveraged long positions have just been liquidated once. The longer it drags on, the more it drains on on-exchange funds and confidence. Enduring longer does not necessarily mean a bull market will emerge. It's like two people falling into a pit: one falls half a meter and can climb out after a while, the other falls ten meters and no matter how long they wait, they can't get out. First, you need to see how deep the pit is, not how long you've been in it. In the market, a three-month slow decline and a three-day sharp drop cause completely different damage to positions. Therefore, my approach is to first use the depth of the drawdown to determine risk, then use time progress to set the pace. At the current stage, depth is more important than time. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 "Redeemable at face value" is the detail I care most about in this New Zealand stablecoin news: the confidence of a payment tool should not come from the next buyer, but from whether you can get your original money back.
The FMA is seeking opinions on a proposal that New Zealand dollar payment stablecoins, fully backed by NZD held in New Zealand-registered banks and meeting safeguard requirements, will no longer be regarded as financial products under the Financial Markets Conduct Act. No decision has been made yet, and this positioning is also a transitional arrangement. My judgment is that this means more for payment stablecoins than just adding a "regulatory positive" label to the crypto market.
The logic I understand is simple: for money used to pay, users need certainty most, not a story of appreciation. Redeeming at face value sets the bottom line for this certainty. If the proposal is implemented, issuers will have the opportunity to develop business more aligned with payment use cases, rather than revolving around the positioning of investment products. This is my speculation and does not mean the threshold disappears.
I also won’t get excited just because it’s "no longer regarded as a financial product." Redeeming on paper and redeeming smoothly in practice are separated by operational processes. Next, I want to see how safeguard measures are detailed: whether stablecoins can become everyday tools ultimately depends on how easy the exit door is.Conclusion first: $TRUMP hit a low of 1.102 today, CoinGecko: 7 days -30.3%, 30 days -39.8%, market cap 323 million.
The reason is not the overall market, but the Senate. On November 5, Blumenthal, who will become the chairman of the Senate investigation committee (PSI) after the election, sent letters to Binance, Tether, World Liberty Financial, and the operator of the TRUMP memecoin Fight Fight Fight, requesting documents by January 4, 2027. Trump-related companies will submit documents starting November 30. This is currently just a file request, not a subpoena.
The market is even colder: OKX $TRUMP perpetual contracts had a 24-hour trading volume of 71 million USD, 11.4 times the spot volume; open interest dropped from 20.7 million USD on October 10 to 13.23 million, shrinking 36%; funding rates were negative in 4 of the last 5 periods, indicating shorts are paying.
WLFI is even worse: from 0.0522 on November 3 to 0.0435 on November 5, hitting a record low, down 16.7% in two days, while announcing a buyback of its own tokens during the same period.
What do you think, can the buyback support it, or are the investigation documents the real risk? $TRUMP - The figure of 38 dollars is more honest than any promotional material. Why is an event that was stopped before it even started worth watching? When I saw that Solana's offline meetup in Lujiazui, Shanghai was abruptly suspended, my first reaction was not "another event canceled," but to check if the price had already reacted. On OKX, SOL is currently priced at 87.38, down 1.93% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of about 67.12 million USDT, and the intraday low touched 84.98. The drop is not exaggerated, but the rhythm is subtle—the buying activity clearly became more cautious before and after the news broke. The outline of the situation is actually clear: the relevant party put up an advertisement on the exterior wall of Citibank, planning to hold the Accelerate China 2026 offline meetup, but it was stopped before it started by the central bank together with local financial regulators, public security, and market supervision. The central bank's stance is very direct: SOL is essentially a virtual currency, and its promotion within the country crossed the red line set by the February 8 joint notice from eight departments; the related entities will be further investigated. Note, what was cut off was brand marketing and offline channels, not the on-chain protocol itself—this distinction is very important. The signal I see is that compliance risk has been repriced. In the past period, the market was used to treating "Chinese-speaking community heat" as narrative fuel; advertisements on walls, offline gatherings, and KOL hype were all interpreted as preludes to capital inflows. But this time it reminds everyone that exposure does not equal access, and popularity can instead become an entry point for regulatory attention. For SOL, the short-term pressure is not on the technical side, but $BTC plunged to 73,708 overnight, hitting a new low for August, with 850 million in long liquidations absorbing 90% of the impact, and 140,000 people forced out. However, funding rates are reported variably—some say it's still at 0.0069%, others say it has turned negative. The long-short ratio actually rose to 2.16, indicating that leveraged positions were washed out, but overall positions did not capitulate. 73,000 couldn't hold; 70,000 is the next stop.
$ETH is even weaker, with ETFs seeing outflows for six consecutive weeks, another 365 million fled in a single week, and 80% of liquidations were longs, so no struggle even occurred.
A-shares turnover was 1.49 trillion, shrinking by 177 billion. Robotics, commercial aerospace, and coal sectors took turns pulling up; Yushu Technology rose over 9%, but volume is declining. The faster the rotation, the more it looks like exhaustion.
The US semiconductor index rebounded 4.21%, AMD rose 11%, but nonfarm payrolls at 165,000 far exceeded expectations, pushing the December rate hike probability above 76%. The Dow closed down against the trend, and chip stocks' own rebound couldn't lift the whole market.
$SOL's Lujiazui advertisement was stopped by the central bank before it even got hot, and the involved entities are under investigation. Regulatory loopholes have never loosened.$ATH$ATH
Damn it! This ATH market is making my blood pressure spike. The dog whale is still stubbornly holding at 0.0045, while outside it's as quiet as a graveyard, clearly planning to shake out and harvest. 🔥
The candlesticks are sliding down along the moving average, volume is all fake orders flipping back and forth—a classic move where strong funds pump then dump. I don't care how it plays out, I'll short around 0.0045 first, with a stop loss above 0.0049, and if it breaks below 0.0042, it will accelerate. 💡
Don't rush to bottom-fish in this stealth kill market; follow the dog whale's scythe direction to make profits. For specific entry points and position sizing, check the token market card below. Don't chase highs or hold losing positions, always use stop loss! 👇👇👇#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 Last week, the combined net outflow of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs exceeded $1.6 billion, with Bitcoin-only products seeing a $1.28 billion outflow in one week. Ethereum spot ETFs have experienced net outflows for 10 consecutive days, indicating institutional money is moving out.
This morning, before the weekly close, there was another flash crash: Bitcoin dropped 2.77% in 15 minutes, briefly dipping to $73,510. Ethereum plummeted 7.3% in 15 minutes, hitting a low of $2,060, with $715 million long positions liquidated in one hour, almost all longs.
Bitcoin has now bounced back to around $74,800, and Ethereum to about $2,130, meaning half of the dip was recovered. However, the $75,000 level has already been breached once. The support level mentioned last night needs to be reassessed today.
Capital outflows and price declines reinforce each other: ETF redemptions create selling pressure, which pushes prices down, and falling prices scare off more funds. This is a typical negative feedback loop, the most common scenario in a weak market.
The bigger context is the rising expectation of interest rate hikes. The probability of a rate hike in December is close to 80%, the US dollar index has risen above 102.35, and in this environment of tightening liquidity, risk assets are struggling, with the crypto market hit first.
The flash dip indicates there aren’t many buyers below $75,000. Bulls wanting to turn the tide must first reclaim the lost ground. Capital flow data is updated weekly; before a trend reversal, watch if the outflow rate slows down and wait for stabilization signals before considering a bottom.
When capital votes with its feet, first understand the direction, then decide whether to follow.On-chain data providers have started labeling fund holdings, and this time the labels are on a batch of Bitcoin products.
Arkham has added tags for about $3 billion in crypto fund assets, from CoinShares, VanEck, Invesco, and Grayscale. Breaking it down: CoinShares' BITC Bitcoin physical ETP is about $1.52 billion, VanEck's VBTC Bitcoin ETN is about $507.2 million, and Invesco's BTIC is about $266.6 million. All three are physical Bitcoin carriers, accounting for the vast majority of the tagged amount.
Mechanically, these products can be tagged because the holding addresses are long-term fixed and single transactions are large. Previously, institutional positions were only disclosed in quarterly reports; now they can be checked in real time. For the first time, the portion of $BTC spot supply locked in these products is visible transaction by transaction.
The only non-Bitcoin product is Grayscale Solana Trust for $SOL, about $125.9 million, which is an order of magnitude smaller than the others. Institutional altcoin allocations remain very thin.
Transparency is a double-edged sword. Tracking costs decrease, making it easier for copycat funds to follow; but large holdings are fully exposed, effectively handing over the timing of position building to the opposing side.
What’s truly worth considering is this: institutional positions have changed from a black box to a map. The scarce resource is no longer information, but who can act first before others see clearly.This is a stock that has dropped 64% from its high, showing a pattern of seven bearish candles with only one small bullish candle after breaking the parabolic structure; the +3.55% on Friday was a long upper shadow with an 11.4% gap up open but closing at only +3.55%, indicating distribution rather than a reversal. Tonight, NVDA is down 5.4% pre-market, which will weigh on the "Big Seven" and the semiconductor sector. SNDK is already down 2.58% pre-market, with a pre-market low of 791. All bullish reasons for $SNDK are on a 6–12 month horizon; none can immediately support the bottom tonight. Cyclical stocks at the peak of the cycle should be valued at 5x PE. The uptrend structure has failed: the drop from 1,909 to 804, with only a rebound to 912 on Friday, is weak—recovering only 9.8%, not even reaching the 23.6% Fibonacci level (1,065). How to trade $SNDK at the 22:30 open tonight — iron rule: no orders in the first 0–15 minutes after open; ATR is 13%. A 5–8% dip within the first 15 minutes is normal, and slippage will consume the entire trading plan. Plan A | Breakout short (main plan, probability ~55%) Trigger: 5-minute close < 791.10, and a pullback that fails to surpass 815 Entry: 800–812 Stop loss: 832 (+3.0%) Targets: T1 770 / T2 750 / T3 735 Risk-reward ratio: T2 ≈ 2.0, T3 ≈ 2.6 Position size 🚨Bitcoin’s biggest danger isn’t the crash — it’s the belief that every dip is a buying opportunity.
$BTC has dropped below $75K, touching nearly $73.7K. Nasdaq weakness, ETF outflows, and over $1B in long liquidations show that broader market pressure is building.
I’m watching one key level: $73K.
If it breaks, are we heading toward $70K, or could Bitcoin surprise everyone with a reversal?
What’s your call? 👇
#BTC #ETH #CryptoMarket
#DailyOrbit "No changes involving the G token," this sentence actually caught my eye more: $G hasn't changed, but that doesn't mean the logic behind it remains the same. Galxe has integrated its team and brand into Gravity, focusing on L1 development and applications. Services like Quest, ID, Passport will gradually be shut down, while the network continues to operate normally.
Token continuity VS usage continuity, I care more about the latter. My judgment is that this adjustment impacts users' re-understanding of the project more than the token name itself. Previously, when looking at growth platforms, one could focus on whether task services had demand; shifting to L1, I need to change my measure and see if on-chain applications have real usage. The code hasn't changed, but that doesn't prove anything for the new direction.
If subsequent applications can meet the demand, only then will I consider the resource consolidation a plus; this is my observational hypothesis, not a concluded result. I won't rely on old impressions for now; moving forward, I'll focus on application implementation rather than brand rebranding.#美伊外交斡旋持续，霍尔木兹通航分歧待解
Is the game in the Strait of Hormuz just emotional disturbance or a trend turning point?
Recently, the US and Iran have been negotiating while applying pressure, but the core disagreement over navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved. Many are closely watching this global energy artery.
If the shipping route is truly blocked, oil prices could quickly surge, inflation expectations would rebound, and eventually, this would feed into expectations of interest rate hikes, causing risk assets like the Nasdaq and Bitcoin to experience sharp volatility.
Currently, the market is divided into two views:
One side believes this is just repeated tug-of-war rhetoric, with friction followed by a quick return to the negotiating table, resulting in only short-term pulse movements;
The other side worries that a prolonged deadlock will keep pushing oil prices up, making inflation uncontrollable, delaying the Fed's rate cut schedule, and continuously suppressing risk assets.
My approach is to first distinguish the levels: at this stage, low-intensity friction is mostly emotional impact; only a substantive navigation disruption would change the medium-term macro narrative.
Geopolitical news is highly random and can spike suddenly. In such an environment, controlling position size and leaving enough room for error is always the top priority. $BTC At 5:55 AM today, Bitcoin dropped from 76,000 to 73,500 within half an hour, hitting a new low since August. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $1.071 billion, with long positions accounting for $996 million, or 93%. What's more interesting is the time distribution: just in the hour before 6 AM, $745 million was liquidated, with longs at $715 million. 137,000 people were liquidated, the largest single liquidation was Binance's ETH/USDT at $48.16 million.
Note the sequence. It’s not that the price crash triggered the liquidations, but the liquidations themselves pushed the price down. The long-short ratio is 72 to 28, with longs crowded on one side and leverage concentrated. When the price breaks down through a key integer level, the first batch of forced liquidations become market sell orders, which push the price down further, triggering the second batch, and so on. The exchange’s liquidation engine acts as an accelerator in this process, not a brake.
So, to judge whether this cycle has bottomed out, the most direct indicator is when liquidation volume shifts from predominantly long-only to both sides. Today, longs account for 93%, indicating leverage has not yet been cleared and bottom-fishing money is still flowing in. #摩根大通称比特币或跑赢黄金 $BTC dropped from 75,690 to 73,477 in fifteen minutes over the weekend, losing two thousand dollars just like that, but liquidation data actually shrank to just over 50 million. Leverage had already been cleaned out in previous rounds, and no one stepping in to buy is more exhausting than a crash. The spot ETF saw a net outflow of 1.28 billion last week, fees turned negative, shorts started collecting rent, and the critical 75,000 line is being closely tested; if it can't hold, it will be a prolonged battle.
$ETH followed the bleeding, with ETFs seeing outflows for five consecutive weeks, BlackRock is also selling, so weak that even a rebound was skipped.
The A-share Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.32%, looking stable, but turnover shrank by 175.2 billion to 1.48 trillion. Robotics, commercial aerospace, and coal sectors took turns pulling up, but over 3,100 stocks fell. Volume is retreating, and the faster rotation feels more like exhaustion.
The US semiconductor index rebounded over 3 points, AMD rose 11%, but nonfarm payrolls at 165,000 far exceeded expectations, pushing the December rate hike probability to 85%. The Dow closed down, and Wall Street calls this a dead cat bounce. The chip stocks' own oversold recovery couldn't lift the whole market.
$SOL's Lujiazui advertisement was stopped by the central bank before it even got hot, and the involved units are under investigation. Regulatory scrutiny has never loosened.No more bull market, but I say this might not necessarily be a bad thing!
Think about late August and September, during the huge surge, how many people shorted and got trapped, now similarly many brothers are trapped going long.
Now, I judge that there is a high probability of entering a long-term consolidation phase. This is not necessarily a bad thing.
In the short term,
Bitcoin $BTC is likely to fluctuate between 70,000 and 76,000,
Ethereum $ETH is likely to fluctuate between 2,000 and 2,200.
My approach within the range is to sell high and buy low,
seek to go long near the lower boundary of the range, and look for opportunities to short near the upper boundary.
If no one-sided market appears,
we can hold positions in time without being liquidated,
consolidation markets are actually better.
Otherwise, in a big one-sided market, if the direction is wrong,
it’s easy to get liquidated.
Brothers, what do you think? How do you see it now?
Check my pinned post to discuss.
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ To start with the conclusion: This round of crash is not caused by the crypto community itself, but because money has become more expensive. In the past four hours, $803 million worth of contract positions across the entire network were liquidated, 92% of which were long positions. Ethereum alone saw $358 million liquidated, even more than Bitcoin—it has become the main battlefield of this round of liquidations. A well-known bull had a $54.46 million Ethereum long position forcibly liquidated, and another major holder’s 540 ETH long position was liquidated, wiping their account to zero. The price retreated from above 2,300 to 2,110, bouncing once only to be sold off again. The root cause lies in macroeconomics. October added 165,000 jobs, while the market had only expected 59,000; the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, pushing the probability of a rate hike in December above 80%. As interest rate expectations rise, leveraged money instantly becomes more expensive, and the first to be liquidated are always those with the most crowded positions. The timing of this data release is also intriguing—the closer to the election cycle, the more a strong data report is needed to prove the economy hasn’t collapsed, while the market only cares about how far it pushes rate cuts away. Politics is politics, but where the money flows is what really matters. The transmission chain is straightforward: US Treasury yields rise, the dollar strengthens, the opportunity cost of non-interest-bearing assets increases, spot channels saw a net outflow of $1.28 billion in one week—the worst week since June—and all inflows this year have been fully reversed. Money isn’t scared away; it’s attracted by yields elsewhere. When allocation funds withdraw, funds have to sell spot assets—this is a mechanical action unrelated to sentiment. There is a counterintuitive point here: the fear and greed index reads 3 SOL has been dropping for six weeks, but the amount of coins held in contracts has actually increased: throughout this decline, some have been leveraging more to buy the dip.
On October 1st at 0:00, it opened at 119.34, now around 86.5, down about 27%. During the same period, OKEx's total contract holdings measured in USD dropped from about 384 million to 355 million, only about a 7.5% decrease. Roughly calculated in coins at the spot price then, it went from about 3.22 million to about 4.1 million, an increase of about 27%. The price dropped by more than a quarter, but the holdings measured in coins actually grew by more than a quarter.
Most of the added positions are longs. In the last 20 funding rate periods, 17 were positive, with a maximum of 0.01%, meaning most of the time, long holders are paying shorts.
At 5 a.m. today, it dropped to 84.98, the lowest since August 20th. Contract holdings decreased by about 19.5 million USD in one hour, but measured in coins, it still remains above 4 million, so only a small portion was washed out.
This kind of decline indicates that not many have given up yet. To find the bottom, I pay more attention to when these over 4 million coins start to drop in large batches, rather than where the price stops first.
$SOL Looking at BTC's market today, another change worth studying has appeared. OKX's market record on November 9 shows BTC's intraday low reached $73,500. Compared to the closing price of $76,074.80 on November 8, the maximum intraday drawdown was about 3.38%. This makes me feel that the market may be facing more than just an ordinary price adjustment now. The more important question is: Does the US inflation and interest rate environment still have enough room to support a rebound in risk assets? Tomorrow night at 21:30, the US will release the October CPI data. First, let's look at the confirmed numbers. US September CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year, overall September PCE rose 3.6% year-over-year, and core PCE rose 3.1% year-over-year. Last week, the October nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. Employment has not collapsed significantly, but inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target. On October 28, the Federal Reserve kept the policy rate at 3.75%–4.00%, with even two members supporting a 25 basis point rate hike. Putting these numbers together, I think the real dilemma in the market emerges. If the economy is too weak, the market fears a recession; but if the economy remains resilient and inflation does not come down, investors may worry that high interest rates will persist longer. BTC, being a highly volatile asset without fixed cash flow, is influenced by both the opportunity cost of capital and risk appetite. However, I do not believe that as long as tomorrow night's CPI is lower than last month, BTC will definitely rise. What truly affects the market is alsoBefore the market opened on November 9, ASE Technology Holding (ASX.US) rose nearly 6% again, closing at $33.5. The rise wasn't due to financial reports but an unconfirmed rumor: Nvidia is investing billions of dollars to support ASE's subsidiary, SPIL, in expanding CoWoS packaging capacity.
The spending details are quite specific—new cleanroom expansion and equipment procurement. This is not a financial investment; it's cash directly injected into the production line. ASE declined to comment on market rumors involving clients, and Nvidia also did not respond to requests for comment; neither side denied the news.
Why is this worth watching? CoWoS is an advanced packaging technology essential for AI accelerator card shipments. Expanding capacity requires building cleanrooms, purchasing equipment, and waiting for delivery, with cycles measured in quarters. Now, with customers funding the supplier's expansion, it effectively locks in part of the future supply in advance.
In the crypto world, this is a typical "upstream capital expenditure" signal. Assets like $BTC depend on overall risk appetite, while $ETH and AI narrative tokens have greater elasticity. The real transmission path is not "Nvidia spends money so crypto prices rise," but rather an improved expectation of computing power supply and a steady stream of new AI narratives, which encourages capital to buy on dips.
One point worth considering: even packaging expansion requires customers to pay—does this mean capacity is truly insufficient, or that suppliers are unwilling to bear this capital expenditure themselves? These two explanations point to completely different scenarios for next year.A contract account simultaneously holds short positions on three major public chains, generating both unrealized profits and funding fee income—this is not an ordinary whale's position but a clear statement on market structure. On-chain monitoring shows that this address has simultaneously established short positions on the $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL perpetual contracts, with a total nominal value of about $600 million. All three positions are currently in unrealized profit, and the funding fee income is also considerable 💰 Let's first look at the largest position: $ETH short holding 78,100 tokens, nominal value about $170 million, entry price $2,322.72, unrealized profit $7.67 million, cumulative funding fee income $4.84 million, margin $34.75 million, liquidation price $3,912.56. Under 5x full margin mode, the liquidation price still has a considerable buffer from the current price, meaning this position is not under short-term forced liquidation pressure and can patiently wait for market development. The $BTC short position holds 2,354.6 tokens, entry price $76,390.2, unrealized profit about $1.6 million, funding fee income $3.84 million, margin $35.65 million, liquidation price $132,167.35. Notably, the funding fee income for the $BTC position is more than twice the unrealized profit—this indicates the short has been held for a long time, during which the market funding rate has consistently favored longs, allowing the short side to collect subsidies. This itself is a signal often overlooked by many: when bullish sentiment overheats and funding rates remain positive for a long time, the time cost for shorts is actually negative. The $SOL short position holds 636,Jensen Huang's affair: will NVIDIA rise or fall?
The conclusion is a short-term bearish outlook, and this scandalous black swan is precisely hitting institutional confidence.
This is not just a simple moral gossip; the fatal issue is that it is tied to a national security investigation. The U.S. side suspects the woman is connected to Chinese intelligence agencies, and NVIDIA's board has swiftly launched an independent investigation.
Given the current sensitive environment of AI chip export controls, this espionage suspicion is the kind of uncertainty Wall Street hates the most.
Although Trump has publicly stated that Jensen Huang is an upright person, this cannot hedge the instinct of capital to seek safety. After the scandal broke, NVIDIA's after-hours trading dropped over 4%, with a cumulative pullback of 22% from the October high.
The technical indicators also show red flags: the 15-minute chart reveals the stock price plunged straight from 188 to around 177, with SAR and super trend lines pressing overhead. The MACD golden cross below zero is extremely weak, typical of an oversold weak rebound.
Prediction: the short-term is very likely to continue searching for a bottom. The 182-183 range above has become a heavy resistance zone; any rebound is a short-term selling opportunity.
Unless the investigation before the mid-November earnings report proves the allegations completely baseless, once the investigation escalates, 177 will definitely break, with the next target below 170. Operationally, do not blindly catch the falling knife at this position to avoid getting trapped.
$NVDA
#英伟达启动独立调查，管理层稳定性受关注 $BTC dipped to 73,708 overnight, hitting a new low for August, with 850 million in long liquidations absorbing 90%, and 140,000 people being taken out. But the funding rate hasn't turned negative, and the long-short ratio actually rose to 2.16; what got washed out were the leveraged positions, not the overall holdings. 73,000 can't hold, 70,000 is the next stop.
$ETH is even weaker, not even bothering to give a decent rebound.
A-shares traded 1.49 trillion, shrinking by 177 billion; robots, ice and snow, and coal sectors took turns pulling up, with 58 stocks hitting the daily limit looking lively, but 51 stocks broke the limit, and over 3,100 stocks are falling. Volume is retreating, and the faster rotation feels more like exhaustion.
US stocks: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 4.21%, AMD up 11%, but nonfarm payrolls at 165,000 far exceeded expectations, pushing the December rate hike probability above 76%. The Dow closed down against the trend, and the chip stocks' own rebound couldn't drive the whole market.
On Binance's side, the MiCA transition period is nearing its end; some accounts in France, Italy, and several other European countries will have to be closed before the end of December. Regulatory costs are real money.