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The debt from AI computing power expansion is growing larger and larger. Now some people are discussing whether the financing gap that banks can't fill can be covered by on-chain credit in the crypto market. After reading this, what popped into my mind were the machines in the data center: if computing power equipment is used as collateral, what happens if the borrower doesn't repay? Coins are pledged on-chain, and liquidation can be executed by contracts, but machines can't be put on-chain. Then who has the right to enter the data center and actually take the machines away?Nebius will disclose its Q3 report on November 12, with the market consensus expecting revenue of $906 million, a year-over-year increase of more than five times, and a loss per share of $1.24. The real test is not the growth rate, but whether the $3 billion annualized revenue at the end of June can be realized into the year-end guidance of $7–9 billion — the group’s revenue in the first half was only $981 million, so the second half needs to more than double.
The stock price has fallen more than 40% from its June high, closing at $126.58 on November 9, with a market capitalization of $34.4 billion. The Democratic Party’s victory in the midterm elections, the Texas governor-elect’s proposal to pause new data center construction, combined with Microsoft’s increased scrutiny of the “new cloud” projects and Gartner’s prediction that 80% of new cloud providers will be eliminated, have significantly pressured the sector’s sentiment. Citi has already lowered its target price from $324 to $265.
Support remains: $37.5 billion in unfulfilled orders, billion-dollar long-term contracts with Microsoft and Meta, and near full capacity sold out through 2027. However, capital expenditures of $20–25 billion and nearly $10 billion in convertible bonds determine whether this report card will be impressive. The key lies in the pace of capacity ramp-up and cash flow, not the reported growth rate. #NebiusAI云业务高速增长迎来财报检验 SNDK at $820, are you bottom-fishing or catching a falling knife?
From 2300 down to 820, halved twice. Revenue surged 378%, EPS beat expectations, $5 billion buyback—yet the stock price crashed like a dog. On the eve of the stock split, is 820 the golden pit for AI storage, or a meat grinder halfway up the mountain?
First, look at the surface: explosive earnings report, but the stock price collapsed.
On October 29, the earnings report showed revenue of 11 billion, up 378% year-over-year; data center revenue 4.8 billion, up a staggering 1600%; gross margin 85%; $5 billion buyback; and an 8-for-1 stock split announced. For any company, this would be a script for a limit-up. Instead, SNDK crashed from 2300 to 820, down over 60%. Earnings reports are like a truth mirror, stock price is an emotion gauge—the better the performance, the harder the sell-off.
Why? Because expectations were already maxed out. Everyone knows about the AI storage super cycle. You buy the “future,” sell the “realization.”
First point: this is not a fundamental collapse, it’s a leverage collapse.
AI training, inference, KV cache, data centers—all consuming storage. Enterprise SSDs already account for nearly half of NAND shipments, supply is tight through 2027. The company is debt-free, cash-rich, with long-term contracts locking capacity, and customers prepaying deposits.
Is the fundamental strong? Yes. But perpetual contract funding rates have been positive—longs are paying to hold positions. When the earnings beat came out, leveraged longs collectively panicked; this is not value destruction, it’s leverage cleansing.
Second point: the stock split is not a positive, it’s a truth mirror.
On November 19, the 8-for-1 split takes effect, with record date November 9. Many get excited hearing “stock split”: “It’s cheaper now, time to buy!”
Wake up. A stock split doesn’t change any fundamentals, only the per-share price. It’s candy for retail investors, not meat for institutions. Liquidity expands and volatility intensifies before and after the split, so price spikes will be even sharper. You think 820 is the bottom, after the split it becomes 102, but you can still get swept out by a spike.
What really matters is whether the 800-820 demand zone holds. If it holds, post-split is a new narrative; if not, expect 750-780.
Third point: the AI storage cycle isn’t over, your patience is.
TrendForce raised the 2026-2027 memory market size forecast, NAND supply-demand imbalance continues, Agentic AI further boosts storage demand. SanDisk’s backlog is huge, gross margin 85%, this is not a cyclical peak bubble, it’s structural shortage.
But you must distinguish: correct mid-to-long-term logic doesn’t mean short-term prices won’t crash. From 2300 to 820, what fell was valuation excess and sector sentiment, not AI storage demand. Analysts’ average target price is still above 2000, but that’s a one-year outlook.
Bull vs. bear, judge for yourself
On one side:
Revenue +378%, data center +1600%, gross margin 85%
$5 billion buyback, no debt, cash rich
NAND shortage continues to 2027, pricing power in hand
Strong demand zone 800-820, oversold rebound momentum
Post-split retail inflow, liquidity expansion
On the other side:
60% drop from 2300, lower highs and lows, bearish structure
Positive perpetual funding rates, long leverage still present, liquidation risk not cleared
Semiconductor/AI sector overall correction, linked to BTC/Nasdaq
Volatility intensifies around split, high spike risk
Memory cyclicality, AI CapEx slowdown means Davis double kill
Key levels
Resistance above: 900-950 → 1000-1100 → 1200+
Support below: 800-820 (strong demand) → 750-780 (breakdown target)
Trading strategy
Conservative bulls:
Scale in lightly at 800-820, total position 5-10%, leverage ≤5-10x. Strict stop loss below 780. First target 900-950, second target 1000+. Add positions on volume-supported hold above 850-900 with higher lows. Avoid all-in; building positions gradually on pullbacks is better.
Short-term traders:
Wait and watch, enter small longs on 4H volume surge or breakout of short-term downtrend, quick profit-taking. If rebound meets resistance at 900-950 with weak volume, consider light short positions targeting 820/800 retest. Below 800, trend continuation short but beware oversold bounce.
Long-term believers:
If you believe in the AI storage cycle, 800-820 is a region worth scaling in gradually. Use spot tokens or low leverage; avoid high-leverage perpetual bets on the split. Liquidity traps abound around the split; staying alive is more important than bottom-fishing.
SNDK now looks like Nvidia in 2022—
Explosive earnings, stock halved, everyone said “cycle topped.” What happened? AI came, from 100+ to over 1000.
$BTC $SNDK $NVDA #Vitalik重提ETH价值存储定位，手续费销毁还是核心吗？
The leader has something to say
I came across Vitalik's post and first looked at the market reaction: ETH dropped over 5% overnight, and the ETH/BTC rate hit a new phase low. Vitalik said ETH's long-term value should come more from its value storage attribute rather than mainly relying on fee burning for valuation; the EIP-1559 burning mechanism should be retained, but the burn volume does not outweigh new issuance, which does not mean Ethereum has failed. What he truly values are decentralization, security, censorship resistance, and the real demand for RWA and collateral scenarios.
My interpretation is: Vitalik is "demystifying" for the community. In recent years, Ethereum's narrative treated EIP-1559 burning and deflation as the core valuation anchor. Once network activity declines and burning falls short of expectations, the market panics. He is actually saying: don't tie valuation to a single mechanism; ETH's foundation is its decentralized infrastructure status. For the crypto space, ETH/BTC weakening indicates funds are concentrating from altcoins to BTC, a typical risk-averse behavior in a bear market.
BTC is currently around 75,000, consolidating Monday night. My approach: ETH weakening against BTC signals risk aversion, so I won't catch ETH's bottom; for BTC, I won't chase above 75,000, and if it breaks below 74,500, look toward 73,000. Tonight are RKLB and ASTS earnings reports; I'll decide direction after the US stock market opens.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; please stay safe. $BTC $ETH $SOL SoftBank will announce its fiscal year 2027 Q2 results on November 10. The market focus is not on revenue, but on the balance sheet after the $64.6 billion bet on OpenAI: net interest-bearing debt rose to ¥10.8 trillion as of the end of June, and in September it issued $11.1 billion in bonds with a record 9.75% coupon; the five-year CDS spiked to 466 basis points, a four-year high.
The optimistic scenario is that an upward revaluation of OpenAI brings book gains, replicating last year's impressive net profit for the same period; however, with OpenAI's IPO delayed until 2027, new financing cooling off, and tighter data center regulations after the U.S. midterm elections, paper gains hardly mask cash flow pressure. The Vision Fund's profit plunged 99% year-on-year last quarter, warning of its reliance on valuation reappraisals.
Whether the results will be impressive depends on the extent of fair value revaluation and the stance on financing plans. If leverage continues to rise and collateral is restricted, no matter how good the profits look, the stock price will remain under pressure. #软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin published a long article re-discussing the value source of ETH. He believes that instead of viewing ETH as a token whose valuation relies on fee burning, more emphasis should be placed on its role as a Store of Value (SoV). This perspective implies that Ethereum's value logic may need to be re-examined: the long-term value of ETH does not necessarily come from higher Gas fees and more token burning, but may come from Ethereum's own decentralization, security, censorship resistance, and stability as a global asset infrastructure. Vitalik emphasizes that EIP-1559 and its fee burning mechanism still have value and should be retained. However, even if future fee burning remains below 10% of the level needed to break even for a long time, there is no need to be disappointed because ETH's value source is not limited to fee burning. 1. Can fee burning really support ETH's valuation? In recent years, an important valuation logic for ETH has been: the greater the usage of the Ethereum network, the more Gas fees are generated, the more ETH is burned, thereby reducing supply and supporting the token price. This logic can be explained by a net present value (NPV) model: Token market value = annual fee burning value ÷ discount rate For example, if a token has a stable annual burning value of $1 billion and the discount rate is 4%, then the theoretical valuation can reach $25 billion. From 2021 to 2023, Ethereum annually burned hundreds ofThe Strait of Hormuz is far from the crypto world, but it is currently affecting the pricing of risk assets.
The US and Iran are negotiating an $8 billion deal: the US will unfreeze these funds, Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz and stop attacks on Gulf shipping, and the US will correspondingly lift restrictions. The deal does not involve the nuclear program. Trump is expected to meet the Qatari Prime Minister on Monday to advance it, Vice President Pence is pushing it, but some senior officials oppose it.
Why does this matter to $BTC? The strait is a choke point for global oil transportation. If passage is blocked, rising oil prices will increase inflation expectations, delay the rate cut path, and tighten liquidity—this chain ultimately hits high-duration assets like crypto. Conversely, reopening the strait is like cutting off this inflation tail.
So this $8 billion is not aid; it’s insurance to keep "oil prices from running out of control." If the deal succeeds, high beta assets like $ETH and $SOL will have the greatest elasticity; if it fails, $BTC’s safe-haven attribute will be reconsidered in trading, but don’t expect it to truly hedge risk—it’s only relatively resistant to decline.
The real disagreement is within Washington: Pence wants the deal, some senior officials oppose it. This means the deal is not guaranteed but a probabilistic event.
What’s worth considering: the market currently treats geopolitical risk as noise, but once it becomes an inflation variable, pricing will adjust sharply. Don’t wait for the headline to react.$ETH Today BTC dropped 2.0%, it dropped 5.4%, 3.4 percentage points worse than the overall market.
The last record of ETH on 2026-11-09 18:30 was $2,108.12, now $2,118.93, up 0.5%.
The low touched $2,063.29, now $2,118.93, still hasn't broken out of the low.
RSI 35.0, weak bias. Support at $2,063.29, resistance at $2,246.22.
Catching a rebound in a weak market is the easiest way to get hit. Wait for it to stand back up on its own before making a move.
First see if $2,063.29 can hold, reclaiming $2,246.22 means today's bearish candle is digested; chasing after that will be too late.
Do you think the support below can hold?
#Crypto #ETHAll three coins are sharply down today but have slightly rebounded from their lows. The short position wall above is within 1.4% of the current price, and the probability of reaching upward remains low. The long position wall below is between 1.2% and 2.2%. However, recent liquidations have been mostly long positions, with bloodied chips exiting. Mid-sized positions are instead adding or holding during the decline, indicating some are catching the falling knife. On smaller timeframes, there is a double bottom test but no sign of a stop in the 1-hour chart yet. The three coins are in different situations: BTC has the shallowest drop and the nearest short positions above; ETH has the sharpest drop and the strongest rebound; SOL has thick walls both above and below, with large holders overwhelmingly short. $BTC｜Resistance 75,749｜Support 73,492 Short positions around 75,749, +1.35% from current price, liquidation about 56.02 million, the thickest among the three, with about a 30% chance to reach upward. Support at 73,492, -1.28% from current price, liquidation about 35.18 million, long position wall. Momentum-wise, current price 74,441.70, 12-hour volatility 3.65%, Bollinger Band width 9.16%, the narrowest among the three. Positions added 0.43% in the last 3 hours, slight increase. Volume ratio 2.42. Nearly 100 liquidation orders, about 16 million, almost all long positions. The 1-hour chart shows three consecutive closes downward, with a 5-minute doji indicating hesitation. Large holders are over 60% short. BTC is stuck in a narrow range between 75,749 and 73,492, less than 2.7%. The short position at +1.35% is closer but still only about a 30% chance upward; the support at -1.28% is moderate, with mid-sized positions slightly adding, and long positions being liquidated. In the short term, watch if the long position wall at 73,492 can hold; the short position at 75,749 is close but not strong enough to suppress price. $EETH swing whale previously sold after ETH surged in August, and today after ETH dropped, bought back 10,000 ETH (worth $21.55 million). On 8/21, ETH rose over 20% in a day and a half; he sold 13,202 ETH at $2,357, which he bought at $2,250 in May, making a profit of $1.41 million; after this morning's drop, 20 minutes ago he spent 21.55 million USDT to buy back 10,000 ETH at a price of $2,155 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC $ETH Maji sold 6 BAYC NFTs in the past 15 hours, cashing out about $83,900 $ETH The Nasdaq's support at each previous high has been very strong, and now it is near the previous high again. For the Nasdaq, which tends to have short bear markets and long bull markets, a 15% drop already offers great value, a 20% drop is a clear signal to buy without hesitation, and if it drops 30%, thank God for the opportunity. Buy slowly, buy more as it falls, and look back at your account after a few months—these panics won't mean much. Watching the market for an hour this afternoon, every rebound of ETH is weaker than the last, and after a surge near 2159, it clearly lacks sustained momentum.
Currently, I lean bearish; the rebound is weak, and the price continues to be under pressure, feeling like there is still room to test lower levels. However, be cautious of volume spikes and stop hunts on Monday night; don't blindly chase orders.
$ETH perpetual contract bearish strategy:
Short range: 2115–2130
Stop loss: 2165
Take profit: 2085 / 2060
Invalidation condition: 1H candle closes back above 2160.
Personal opinion for reference only, not investment advice.
#USCPIDecemberRateWatch On Sunday, Trump posted publicly endorsing the Senate's permit reform bill. The bill number is S.5653, named the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act, abbreviated as BAAJA. Around 17:30 Eastern Time tonight, the Senate will vote on a procedural motion, requiring 60 votes to proceed, which is not the final passage.
Trump's wording on Truth Social was very direct, saying this is a "major victory for American energy independence and leadership," able to speed up the construction of pipelines, mines, and power plants, reduce household energy costs, and create high-paying jobs. He also specifically mentioned that the bill will put his "commitment to protecting electricity consumers" into law, requiring data centers to generate and pay for their own electricity, and also invest in local communities.
The clause in the bill that is really worth noting:
Data centers over 20 megawatts can no longer choose between "paying embedded costs of the existing grid" and "paying incremental costs of new transmission"; they must bear both.
In plain language, if you build a large enough data center, you can't just rely on the existing grid capacity and make ordinary residents share the expansion pressure you cause. You must pay for the incremental capacity you use yourself.
This clause is very targeted in the current context. The latest polls show that the proportion of Americans opposing new data centers within three miles of their homes has risen from 28% in January to 50%. Electricity price increases, water usage, noise, these$BTC $ETH The CPI at 9:30 PM tomorrow might be the biggest risk this week
The market expects the overall month-on-month rate to drop from 0.6% to 0.3%, with the core month-on-month rate between 0.2% and 0.3%. But there is a big pitfall this time: last year's government shutdown caused missing year-on-year data, so we can only focus on the month-on-month figures. Any 0.1% deviation will be magnified infinitely by the market.
What we really need to watch out for is the Fed's trump card. Last week, nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, unemployment dropped to 4.1%, and the probability of a rate hike in December has been pushed close to 80%. Tomorrow's CPI is the last data before the meeting; as long as the core month-on-month rate dares to hit 0.3% or even higher, a rate hike is basically locked in.
The impact on the market is very direct. AI and semiconductor stocks have already fallen badly these past two days; if CPI exceeds expectations again, US Treasury yields will surge, high-valuation tech stocks will get hit again, and BTC won't be able to stay immune. Conversely, even if the core drops below 0.2%, it will at most be a short-term breather—don't expect a direct reversal.
My view is simple: don't bet on the direction before the data comes out. This kind of macro blind box is no different from flipping a coin to guess big or small. Reduce contract leverage early, wait for the data to land and rate hike expectations to be digested, then we can see if there is an opportunity to enter on the right side. In this market, surviving is much more important than making a lot of money. #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ Bitcoin took a heavy plunge, but on-chain lending is a different story
$BTC is quoted at 75,006.1 USDT, down 1.1% in the past 24 hours. The drop doesn't look alarming at first glance, but during the hour it fell to 73,500, spot trading volume was nearly 119 million USDT, compared to less than 6 million the previous hour. Although it later bounced back near 75,000, that hour still accounted for about a quarter of the 24-hour spot trading volume. The decline seems moderate, but the turnover volume was very concentrated during the process, and the intensity of the rebound and sharp drop was quite different.
This sharp drop has a specific impact on $AAVE's lending business: when collateral assets fall, the same debt tightens the position. Even if the borrowed asset is a stablecoin whose price hasn't changed much, if the health factor falls below 1, the position can still be liquidated. $AAVE is quoted at 129.61 USDT, down 1.4% in the past 24 hours, having bounced back significantly from around 124. To see if the protocol can withstand such volatility, one needs to check if bad debt remains after liquidations; the token's quick rebound doesn't answer this question.
$LINK is quoted at 10.574 USDT, down 1.8% in the past 24 hours. Its price data is another critical factor: lending systems rely on price feeds to calculate how much collateral is still worth. When the market is stable, no one pays attention, but during sharp drops, whether the price feed updates quickly enough is crucial. If updates are slow, the borrower's interface might look fine, but the next update could directly cross the liquidation threshold. For the protocol, speed must also be accurate; it cannot treat an abnormal trade on an exchange as representative of the entire market.The story of this address is quite impressive in the first half: According to Odaily monitoring, it completed 7 rounds of ETH trades from October 18 to November 6, 2026, with a 100% win rate. On November 9, it increased its long position by 4223.37 ETH, about $8.97 million, pushing the holding to 24,500.49 ETH, currently valued at approximately $52.01 million.
Seeing this, I would also want to take a closer look: someone who has been consistently right and is adding more. But my judgment is that this looks more like a bullish expression from a large position account and is not strong enough evidence to determine the subsequent direction of $ETH.
The reason is straightforward: the 7 consecutive wins describe the past, and the sample size is limited, so it cannot guarantee the next round. The data does not disclose leverage, margin, or other hedging positions; what we see is an increase in long positions, but we do not see the complete risk ledger.
For ordinary users, I think the easiest pitfall is to take someone else's win rate as their own safety net. This is my speculation: if the market reverses later, the risk of the expanded position will also increase, and the previous impressive record cannot offset this.
The reminder this story gives me is: performance can attract attention, but how the position is closed determines the outcome. What do you think? Will this increase continue the winning streak, or will the story take a turn? Will you pay more attention to it continuing to add positions or starting to reduce them? The crypto market is experiencing a widespread decline. This drop is not due to weakness in individual coins but rather a liquidity vacuum across the board. Bitcoin ($BTC) fell below the 75,000 mark, closing at 74,319, down 2.26% in a single day, erasing most of the previous minor rebound gains. Ethereum ($ETH) is even more precarious, breaking the 2,200 support level to 2,122, with a daily drop of 5.28%. The market shows almost no resistance and no significant lower shadows, indicating that buying pressure was quickly overwhelmed, driven by forced liquidations and withdrawal of buy orders, not just a simple cooling of sentiment. SOL ($SOL) dropped below 86, while DOGE ($DOGE) and XRP ($XRP) also fell by more than 3% to 4%. Capital is not rotating between sectors but fleeing simultaneously, representing a market-wide risk-off. This situation differs from a normal correction; it is a repricing that traps traders who tried to buy the dip and rebound, with stop-loss orders and liquidations further amplifying selling pressure. The current focus is not on guessing the bottom but on observing whether the vanished buying demand can return. Watch whether Bitcoin ($BTC) can stabilize and reclaim 75,000, or if Ethereum ($ETH) will continue to lead the decline. Until key signals become clear, prices will keep falling, and no bottom signals have appeared yet. A fatal signal, the bull market of $ETH has most likely already collapsed
Reviewing the Ethereum daily moving averages and comparing the time patterns of the first and second waves in previous bull markets, here are some observations worth letting go of the bull market obsession.
First, the daily moving averages have already formed a bearish alignment. Looking back at history, during a true bull market uptrend, this structure rarely appears, which itself is a strong warning.
Second, the time cycle does not match the standard second wave. This round's first wave lasted about a month, and the current correction has already lasted one and a half months. In past bull markets, the first wave usually lasts 2–3 times longer than the second wave, and corrections rarely exceed the length of the first wave. From a cycle perspective, this looks more like a main downward wave rather than a consolidation pullback.
Third, the way key support levels were broken is unusual. Previously, when hitting 2155 and 2078, there was quick dumping after weekend sideways trading, mainly to liquidate high-leverage positions, without thorough panic selling. A reliable bottom usually requires completely crushing bullish confidence, and from the current market situation, 2050 is unlikely to become a major starting point for a rally.
Overall, a short-term rebound is not ruled out, but expectations should not be too high. The first resistance to watch is 2204; if the momentum is strong, the extreme is around 2330, but it is difficult to open up a large-scale upward space.
Pay attention to cyclical layout opportunities. When suitable signals appear, I will share them on the main page study group.
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ A 15% drop is called cost-effective, this only applies to the Nasdaq
The Nasdaq has again approached its previous high.
Some say a 15% drop is cost-effective.
How is this number calculated:
The Nasdaq has long bull runs and short bear runs; a 15% pullback is considered normal.
In other markets, 15% is just the beginning.
Common misunderstanding:
The premise of buying more as prices fall is having spare cash.
Those using leverage get liquidated first if it drops 15%.
Buying without hesitation at a 20% drop is not something people borrowing money can say.
The liquidation line does not consider cost-effectiveness.
#美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4%
#$ETH #SoftBank's heavy bet on OpenAI, can the Q2 earnings report deliver impressive results? $SOFTBANK SoftBank Q2 earnings: better than expected on paper, AI bet yet to pay off
SoftBank's latest earnings report shows "profit exceeding expectations, structural fragility." Net profit was ¥347.3 billion, exceeding expectations but down 18% year-on-year, mainly due to a one-time revaluation gain of about ¥1.3 trillion from Intel shareholdings, rather than the AI mainline.
Vision Fund performance was dismal: pre-tax profit was only ¥5.427 billion, a year-on-year plunge of 98.8%; the second fund lost ¥80.098 billion, the Latin America fund lost ¥45.892 billion, and the AI portfolio valuation growth clearly stalled.
SoftBank's cumulative investment commitment to OpenAI is $64.6 billion, holding about 13%, with a huge paper gain at one point. But at the end of the quarter, OpenAI's valuation did not continue to rise, and returns heavily depend on the next valuation reappraisal.
The cost of financing is becoming explicit: in September, $11.1 billion of high-yield bonds were issued, with some coupons reaching 9.75%; the five-year CDS spread widened to 466 basis points. The OpenAI IPO is rumored to be delayed until after 2027, leaving SoftBank holding illiquid private equity but having to wait for exit at nearly double-digit costs.
Whether a new round of OpenAI financing can push up valuation, whether the Vision Fund's profit decline can be stopped, and how much more cash AI infrastructure investment will consume remain questions. In short, Q2's brightness mostly comes from one-time buffers; the $64.6 billion OpenAI bet has yet to convert into profit. Paper gains can be polished, but interest will not wait.Those expanding AI computing power are borrowing more and more. Now even the financing gaps that banks can't fill are being discussed as to whether they can be covered by on-chain credit. After reading this, I have some doubts. The market already treats this as a new business in crypto, but hasn't really addressed this issue? Money borrowed from the chain ultimately still needs to be repaid by earnings from the data centers, right? If we only consider the related tokens as new demand without discussing who will repay the money, I think this accounting looks unstable.AI computing power expansion is borrowing more and more money, and banks can't cover the funding gap. Now some want on-chain lending to take over. I've been paying more attention to the on-chain lending sector in crypto, especially projects linked to real-world assets. Here's an interesting detail: the machines are placed in data centers, the IOUs are recorded on-chain, but when it really comes to not being able to repay, how do lenders actually handle those machines?The moment when watching the market makes your palms cold is often not because the price has dropped, but because you realize you haven't fully considered the risks. Has the market truly understood the weight behind this "gentle" letter from Congress? At midday, BTC couldn't organize a decent rebound. I stared at the order book for a long time and increasingly felt this was not just a technical issue. Blumenthal sent a letter to Binance, Tether, WLFI, and Fight Fight Fight LLC, requesting voluntary document submission by January 4, 2027. The wording is polite, but the timing of the signature coincides with when he just took the chair of the investigative committee. The letter points out two things: first, Binance and Tether are suspected of helping Iran circumvent sanctions and handle funds; second, potential conflicts of interest with WLFI. The former directly hits the compliance foundation of USDT, while the latter ties political narratives more tightly to crypto. My own position felt stable yesterday, but today I decisively lowered my leverage by one notch—not out of fear of a drop, but fear that liquidity might suddenly become more expensive. Once USDT is repeatedly scrutinized by the market, stablecoin premiums, OTC spreads, and contract funding rates will move first, then BTC pricing will follow. This transmission sequence is something many people watching candlesticks won't notice. The bullish logic isn't absent either: voluntary submission and the deadline extended to 2027 indicate the process is still in early stages, so the probability of short-term forced actions is low; if document exchanges drag into a tug-of-war, risk appetite tends to lean more toward... Someone grabbed tens of millions of dollars, then turned around and put the money into an ETH long position opened three months ago, which is still at a loss. Having a lot of money doesn't solve the leverage problem.
The UX Link attacker address 0xde8d…9524 holds an ETH long position worth 42.65 million USD on Hyperliquid, 20,230 coins, 15x leverage, opened three months ago. The unrealized loss is 520,000, funding fees paid are 1.47 million, total P&L is negative 864,100, and the liquidation price is 1612.90 USD.
There is an easy-to-miss detail: the unrealized loss of 520,000 plus funding fees of 1.47 million should total a negative 1.99 million, but the total P&L is only negative 864,100. This indicates that some profits were made and partially taken along the way; currently, most of the profits have been eroded.
The real profit killer is not the price. The real bleeding point is the funding fees under 15x leverage: 1.47 million, nearly three times the unrealized loss. Leverage amplifies the position size, funding fees amplify the time cost.
The second thing to watch is 1612.90. This is not a technical level; it is the lifeline of a 42.65 million USD position. Once liquidated, what comes out is a real sell order, not just sentiment.
Finally, a question: if even chips that don’t have to be responsible are being gambled at 15x leverage, what exactly are ordinary people betting on when they use the same leverage with their own money? #軟銀重金押註OpenAI，Q2財報能否交出亮眼成績？ SoftBank's "impressive" Q2 needs a question mark. The net profit exceeding expectations relied on a one-time revaluation gain from Intel's shareholding; the Vision Fund's pre-tax profit, which truly reflects the core investment business, was only ¥5.43 billion, a year-on-year plunge of 98.8%. The $64.6 billion bet on OpenAI contributed nothing this quarter—the valuation remained unchanged, and the gain simply vanished from the profit statement. When valuation rises, profits explode; when valuation stalls, profits nearly drop to zero. This fragility in profit structure is more concerning than the numbers on the books, making it difficult to deliver an impressive earnings report. The lower shadow line in the early morning is more worth watching than the price itself. Have you noticed that when the drop is the sharpest, the buying side is unusually quiet? When I was watching the market last night, I had a very specific feeling: it wasn’t panic, it was calm. BTC and ETH were both dropping simultaneously, but the trading volume didn’t keep up; the order book was thin as if a layer had been pulled away. This kind of "falling but no support" market depth is more alarming than a sharp drop with high volume because it indicates fewer people are willing to act at this level. The original information is actually quite dense. Some public 81000 short positions are still in profit, ETH long positions at 2188 and 2238 were all closed before the drop, and half of the BTC short positions were also closed. Looking at these actions together, smart money isn’t trying to predict the bottom but is reducing positions early and locking in profits. The market is trading not on "whether there will be a rebound" but on "how much room is left for the decline." But there is a second layer that is easy to overlook: when shorts start taking profits in batches, it often means the most comfortable phase of the market is over. Holding half the position is a bet on trend continuation, not acceleration. So the next likely scenario is not a waterfall drop but a grind, repeatedly testing and shrinking volume while moving down, gradually wearing down the patience of those chasing longs. From the sector strength perspective, ETH longs were withdrawn before the drop, indicating weaker influence on altcoins. If BTC continues to drift down, risk appetite will first contract to the mainstream, then spread to altcoins, with the rhythm being "first resist the drop, then catch up the drop." There is also a bullish side: short profits$SNDK has hit a new low again! Still thinking about bottom-fishing? Be careful not to get stuck halfway up the mountain!
These past few days, Haitang has been reminding everyone that SanDisk still shows no clear bottom signal. You want to catch its bottom, but it’s ready to catch you instead.
With the U.S. stock market closed over the weekend, SanDisk consolidated sideways for two days. I was hoping for a decent rebound on Monday, but today’s opening showed no improvement and instead continued downward, breaking through previous lows directly.
What does this mean? Market confidence hasn’t recovered, capital hasn’t clearly returned, and panic sentiment in the market is rising again.
On top of that, the Democratic Party’s regulatory policies targeting the AI industry are still brewing uncertainty. The market is repricing investment and profit expectations for the AI supply chain, so the storage and semiconductor sectors naturally can’t remain unaffected.
Now even institutional funds show no clear intention to bottom-fish, so why should retail investors rush to catch a falling knife?
Haitang’s approach remains clear: don’t rush to bottom-fish; keep looking for shorting opportunities during rebounds!
$ZEC $ETH #US October CPI Preview: Will the December rate hike expectations change? $AKE Perfect recap: logic fulfilled, profits secured!
In the previous share, I clearly outlined a strategy to lightly position long orders at 0.0042, targeting 0.0052—0.0058.
The market was very cooperative, following the expected upward script, rising all the way to around 0.0057, just a step away from our second target! I've already captured this nearly 35% increase! $BTC #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ #软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？
SoftBank's "impressive" Q2 needs a question mark. The net profit exceeding expectations relied on a one-time revaluation gain from Intel's shareholding, while the Vision Fund's pre-tax profit, which truly reflects the core investment business, was only ¥5.43 billion, a year-on-year plunge of 98.8%. The $64.6 billion bet on OpenAI contributed nothing this quarter—the valuation remained unchanged, so the gain vanished from the profit statement. When valuation rises, profits explode; when valuation stalls, profits nearly vanish. This fragility in profit structure is more concerning than the book figures themselves, making it difficult to deliver an impressive earnings report. Global risk assets are all paying the price together!
It's no longer about which coin has dropped the most, but that none are in the green—crypto, US stocks, commodities, all broadly red.
$BTC 74050 continues to test the bottom, $DOGE and similar altcoins are at the bottom of the decline list, retracing from their highs: BTC -70%, ETH -55%, SOL -56%, BNB -74%—this depth of retracement is no longer a correction, it's a standard bear market scale.
The only resilient one is ZEC, down only 32% from its high; contrarian assets often hide the seeds of the next narrative, but it could also be the last group holding together.
AI narrative cools down → global capital deleverages simultaneously → all bubble pools drain together.
In days like these, it's not about who predicts correctly, but who has lighter positions and who can survive until stabilization.
Watch two numbers: when SOXL stops falling, and whether BTC can hold 73500.
Only after leverage liquidations finish will opportunities open up.
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $FIL
Decentralized storage has a compelling technological proposition, but its economics deserve closer attention. Filecoin aims to create a marketplace for data storage through a distributed network of providers. The important question is whether real customer demand can support sustainable storage economics. Capacity growth is useful, but utilized storage, retrieval reliability, pricing competitiveness, and recurring customers provide a much clearer picture of business viability.#软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ SoftBank's "impressive" Q2 needs a question mark. The net profit exceeding expectations relied on a one-time revaluation gain from Intel's shareholding, while the Vision Fund's pre-tax profit, which truly reflects the core investment business, was only ¥5.43 billion, a year-on-year plunge of 98.8%. The $64.6 billion bet on OpenAI contributed nothing this quarter—the valuation remained unchanged, so the gain vanished from the profit statement as if into thin air. When valuation rises, profits explode; when valuation stalls, profits nearly drop to zero. This fragility in profit structure is more alarming than the numbers on the books themselves. $BTC 🔥 Consolidated around 75000 for two days, this is not a bottoming formation, but time exchanging for space!
Previously, we monitored the 75000 support level for a week. After breaking below, the price rebounded and consolidated within this range for a full two days. The thin liquidity over the weekend was expected, but beneath the calm market surface lie very conflicting signals:
Spot ETF funds have turned net outflows for the year, with institutional capital continuously withdrawing; short-term holders' cost lines and mid-term moving averages are pressing above the price, and every rebound is met with selling pressure pushing it back down. More importantly, the RSI has not yet entered the oversold zone, lacking sufficient oversold momentum buildup.
This is not the bottom for a bullish counterattack, but rather a temporary pause by the bears, repeatedly testing support in a choppy grind. Bulls are currently only holding the line to "not continue a sharp decline for now," far from mounting a counterattack.
Reviewing this drop: the high of 81199 was smashed down to 73300, a weekly retracement of 7200 points. Positions chasing longs near 81000 are floating at a 9% loss; with 10x leverage, they face a direct 90% loss. The sharp drop occurred at 5:45 on the 15-minute chart, with BTC and ETH simultaneously dumping volume. BTC bottomed at 73500, ETH plunged to 2063; but after 6:00, the pullback showed a clear divergence: BTC quickly recovered, while ETH's rebound was weak and the repair effort much less.
No single sudden news triggered the drop; post-election regulatory concerns, security incidents, and geopolitical sentiment collectively suppressed risk appetite, causing concentrated selling pressure to surge. The scale of leveraged liquidations remains to be confirmed.$CAKE
PancakeSwap burned 1.79M CAKE and minted 674K in October, cutting net supply by 1.116M for the 38th straight month. Its DEX spans 11 chains; The Flip passed, targeting 88% of swap fees for liquidity providers. CAKE supports governance and buybacks, but burns alone cannot lift value without trading volume and sustained demand.
#CAKE #PancakeSwap #DeFi$RSR $BTC 🔥75000 has been consolidating sideways for two days; this is not a bottoming process, but time exchanging for space!
Previously, we monitored the 75000 support level for a week. After breaking below it, the price rebounded and returned to this range, consolidating sideways for a full two days. The thin liquidity over the weekend was expected, but beneath the calm market surface lie very conflicting signals:
Spot ETF funds have already turned net outflows this year, with institutional funds continuously withdrawing; short-term holders' cost lines and mid-term moving averages are pressing above the price, and every rebound is pushed back by selling pressure. More importantly, the RSI has not yet entered the oversold zone, lacking sufficient oversold momentum buildup.
This is not the bottom for a bullish counterattack, but rather a temporary pause by the bears, repeatedly testing support in a choppy grinding market. Bulls are currently only holding the line of "not continuing to fall sharply for now," far from mounting a counterattack.
Reviewing this decline: the high of 81199 was smashed down to 73300, a weekly retracement of 7200 points. Positions chasing longs near 81000 are floating at a 9% loss; with 10x leverage, they face a direct 90% loss. The sharp drop occurred at 5:45 on the 15-minute chart, with BTC and ETH simultaneously dumping volume. BTC bottomed at 73500, ETH plunged directly to 2063; but after 6:00, the pullback showed a clear divergence: BTC quickly recovered, while ETH's rebound was weak and the repair effort much less.
No single sudden news triggered the drop; post-election regulatory concerns, security incidents, and geopolitical sentiment collectively suppressed risk appetite, causing concentrated selling pressure to surge. The scale of leveraged liquidations remains to be confirmed.The bottom signal has not yet been confirmed; these three price levels will determine the short-term direction
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？
After the midterm elections, $BTC completed a surge and pullback, currently stuck around 74K with repeated tests.
The market has partially digested the result of the Democrats controlling both chambers; the real drivers of price are leverage liquidation and changes in macro expectations.
Next, pay attention to these three price levels:
· 73.5K-74K is the most critical support zone right now, overlapping with the 200-day moving average and the bull market support band; if broken, the price will drop to 70K–72K.
· 75.7K–76K is the cost basis for short-term holders; regaining this level is necessary to establish a rebound.
· The upper range of 80K–82K remains a clear resistance; without sustained spot buying, it is difficult to break through effectively.
My judgment is that this is more likely a key support test rather than a trend reversal; the bottom signal has not yet been confirmed.
Large-scale liquidations and fear sentiment indeed suggest a cleansing effect, and the price is testing important moving average support. However, continuous ETF outflows, the price just breaking below the 50-week moving average, and whale short positions reaching nearly a one-year high indicate they are not optimistic about the short-term trend.
If 73.5K is broken, downside risk increases; if the price can stabilize in this area and return above 76K, there is a chance to form a higher-quality rebound.
Trading advice:
If the 73.5K–74K area shows volume contraction and stabilization with spot buying picking up, consider light long positions with a stop loss set below 73.2K; if this area breaks with increased volume, prioritize defense and wait to reassess near 70K.$DOGE $BTC 🔥 Consolidated around 75000 for two days, this is not a bottoming formation, but time exchanging for space!
Previously, we monitored the 75000 support level for a week. After breaking below, the price rebounded and consolidated in this range for a full two days. The thin liquidity over the weekend was expected, but beneath the calm market surface lie very conflicting signals:
Spot ETF funds have turned to net outflows this year, with institutional capital continuously withdrawing; short-term holders' cost lines and mid-term moving averages are pressing above the price, and every rebound is pushed back by selling pressure. More importantly, the RSI has not yet entered the oversold zone, lacking sufficient oversold momentum buildup.
This is not the bottom for a bullish counterattack, but rather a temporary pause by the bears, repeatedly testing support in a choppy grind. Bulls are currently only holding the line of "no further major decline for now," far from mounting a counterattack.
Reviewing this decline: the high of 81199 was hammered down to 73300, a weekly retracement of 7200 points. Positions chasing longs near 81000 are floating at a 9% loss, and 10x leverage faces a direct 90% loss. The sharp drop occurred at 5:45 on the 15-minute chart, with BTC and ETH simultaneously dumping volume; BTC bottomed at 73500, ETH plunged directly to 2063. However, the rebound after 6:00 showed a clear divergence: BTC quickly recovered, while ETH's rebound was weak and the repair effort much less.
No single sudden news triggered the drop; post-election regulatory concerns, security incidents, and geopolitical sentiment collectively suppressed risk appetite, causing concentrated selling pressure. The scale of leverage liquidations remains to be confirmed.$SOL $BTC 🔥 Consolidated around 75000 for two days, this is not a bottoming out, but time exchanging for space!
Previously, we monitored the 75000 support level for a week. After breaking below, the price rebounded and consolidated in this range for a full two days. The thin liquidity over the weekend was expected, but beneath the calm market surface lie very conflicting signals:
The spot ETF has seen net outflows of funds this year, with institutional capital continuously withdrawing; short-term holders' cost lines and mid-term moving averages are pressing above the price, and every rebound is pushed back by selling pressure. More importantly, the RSI has not yet entered the oversold zone, lacking sufficient oversold momentum buildup.
This is not the bottom for a bullish counterattack, but rather a temporary pause by the bears, repeatedly testing support in a choppy grind. Bulls are currently only holding the line of "no further major decline for now," far from mounting a counterattack.
Reviewing this decline: the high of 81199 was smashed down to 73300, a weekly retracement of 7200 points. Positions chasing longs near 81000 are floating at a 9% loss, and 10x leverage faces a direct 90% loss. The sharp drop occurred at 5:45 on the 15-minute chart, with BTC and ETH simultaneously dumping volume; BTC bottomed at 73500, ETH plunged directly to 2063; but after 6:00, the pullback showed a clear divergence: BTC quickly recovered, while ETH's rebound was weak and the repair effort much less.
No single sudden news triggered the drop; post-election regulatory concerns, security incidents, and geopolitical sentiment collectively suppressed risk appetite, causing concentrated selling pressure to surge. The scale of leverage liquidations remains to be confirmed.$OKB fell below 100, and Wang Duaniao cried!
Duaniao's cost is in the 140-160 range. OKB's last rebound reached 143, originally there was a chance to do T trading with the low buys in the 80-120 range, to sell the previously high-chased buys, and then achieve a low cost.
This time it fell below 100 again, and Duaniao's determination is somewhat shattered. He has now started taking advertisements, after all, he is stuck, and the funds cannot be withdrawn freely because he also used leverage. However, fortunately, the leverage is very low; unless it falls below 50, he will face risk.
To be honest, I think OKB is also a very good asset. Whether it's the compliance license or brand influence, it is top-tier in the crypto space.
But the tokenized US stock platform cooperated by OKX and ICE is facing multiple obstacles. The market originally favored RWA as the main narrative, but now it not only failed to attract new trading volume, but the US stock side is also precarious.
Currently, the overall market is very poor, and liquidity is average. So, the market has once again given an opportunity below 100. Will you buy? Or do you choose to bottom-fish $BTC as a safer bet? $OKB $BTC 🔥75000 has been consolidating sideways for two days, this is not a bottom formation, but time exchanging for space!
Previously, we monitored the 75000 support level for a week. After breaking below, the price rebounded and returned to this range, consolidating sideways for a full two days. The thin liquidity over the weekend was expected, but beneath the calm market surface lie very contradictory signals:
Spot ETF funds have turned to net outflows this year, with institutional funds continuously withdrawing; short-term holders’ cost lines and mid-term moving averages are pressing above the price, and every rebound is pushed back by selling pressure. More importantly, the RSI has not yet entered the oversold zone, lacking sufficient oversold momentum buildup.
This is not the bottom for a bullish counterattack, but rather a temporary pause by the bears, repeatedly testing support in a choppy grind. Bulls are currently only holding the line of "no further major decline for now," far from mounting a counterattack.
Reviewing this drop: from a high of 81199 down to 73300, a weekly retracement of 7200 points, with positions entered near 81000 suffering a 9% unrealized loss; 10x leverage faces a direct 90% loss. The sharp drop occurred at 5:45 on the 15-minute chart, with BTC and ETH simultaneously dumping volume; BTC bottomed at 73500, ETH plunged to 2063. However, after 6:00, a clear divergence appeared: BTC quickly recovered, while ETH’s rebound was weak and repair was much less robust.
No single sudden event triggered the drop; post-election regulatory concerns, security incidents, and geopolitical sentiment collectively suppressed risk appetite, causing concentrated selling pressure to surge. The scale of leveraged liquidations remains to be confirmed.$ETH $BTC 🔥 Consolidated around 75000 for two days, this is not a bottoming formation, but time exchanging for space!
Previously, we monitored the 75000 support for a week. After breaking below, the price rebounded and consolidated in this range for a full two days. The thin liquidity over the weekend was expected, but beneath the calm market surface lie very conflicting signals:
Spot ETF funds have turned to net outflows this year, with institutional funds continuously withdrawing; short-term holders' cost lines and mid-term moving averages are pressing above the price, and every rebound is pushed back by selling pressure. More importantly, the RSI has not yet entered the oversold zone, lacking sufficient oversold momentum buildup.
This is not the bottom for a bullish counterattack, but rather a temporary pause by the bears, repeatedly testing support in a choppy grind. Bulls are currently only holding the line of "not continuing a big drop for now," far from mounting a counterattack.
Reviewing this decline: the high of 81199 was smashed down to 73300, a weekly retracement of 7200 points. Positions chasing longs near 81000 are floating at a 9% loss, and 10x leverage faces a direct 90% loss. The sharp drop occurred at 5:45 on the 15-minute chart, with BTC and ETH simultaneously dumping volume; BTC bottomed at 73500, ETH directly probing 2063. However, after 6:00, the pullback showed a clear divergence: BTC quickly recovered, while ETH's rebound was weak and the repair effort much less.
No single sudden news triggered the drop; post-election regulatory concerns, security incidents, and geopolitical sentiment collectively suppressed risk appetite, causing concentrated selling pressure to surge. The scale of leverage liquidations remains to be confirmed.$BTC 🔥 Consolidated around 75000 for two days, this is not a bottoming formation, but time exchanging for space!
Previously, we monitored the 75000 support level for a week. After breaking below, the price rebounded and consolidated within this range for a full two days. The thin liquidity over the weekend was expected, but beneath the calm market surface lie very conflicting signals:
Spot ETF funds have turned net outflows for the year, with institutional capital continuously withdrawing; short-term holders' cost lines and mid-term moving averages are pressing above the price, and every rebound is met with selling pressure pushing it back down. More importantly, the RSI has not yet entered the oversold zone, lacking sufficient oversold momentum buildup.
This is not the bottom for a bullish counterattack, but rather a temporary pause by the bears, repeatedly testing support in a choppy grind. Bulls are currently only holding the line to "not continue a sharp decline for now," far from mounting a counterattack.
Reviewing this drop: the high of 81199 was smashed down to 73300, a weekly retracement of 7200 points. Positions chasing longs near 81000 are floating at a 9% loss; with 10x leverage, they face a direct 90% loss. The sharp drop occurred at 5:45 on the 15-minute chart, with BTC and ETH simultaneously dumping volume. BTC bottomed at 73500, ETH plunged to 2063; but after 6:00, the pullback showed a clear divergence: BTC quickly recovered, while ETH's rebound was weak and the repair effort much less.
No single sudden news triggered the drop; post-election regulatory concerns, security incidents, and geopolitical sentiment collectively suppressed risk appetite, causing concentrated selling pressure to surge. The scale of leveraged liquidations remains to be confirmed.$INJ
Injective operates in a competitive environment where decentralized exchanges and financial applications constantly compete for liquidity. Its specialized infrastructure is designed around financial markets, but attracting traders is only one part of the equation. Retaining liquidity, encouraging repeat usage, and maintaining reliable execution are equally important. Can Injective establish lasting advantages beyond its technology?Li Shenting: Ethereum Evening Market Analysis and Operation Ideas for 11.9
Ethereum's weekly chart also updated today. From the weekly technical indicators, the KDJ and MACD indicators are currently in a death cross with downward pressure. The BOLL indicator shows the price has completely broken below the middle band. Additionally, the MA5 and MA10 moving averages continue to suppress the price downward. Currently, Ethereum's price has thoroughly broken below the MA30 moving average and is arranged in a red TD6 pattern. Overall, the trend this week is expected to remain bearish, with support around the 1920-1830 area.
From the daily technical indicators, today's KDJ and MACD indicators show a bottom death cross resonance with a downward trend. The BOLL indicator continues to open downward toward the lower band, maintaining a sustained oscillating decline. The three MA lines all show a strong bearish arrangement with a downward trend, and the declines in the MA5 and MA10 moving averages are still expanding. It is clear that the bearish trend is very strong, so our intraday operation strategy remains focused on shorting at highs.
Summary: Personally, I expect Ethereum's overall trend tonight to continue downward, with bottom support around 1920-1845.
The above is my personal early morning market analysis for your reference only #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $BTC 74121 funding rate is still positive at 0.0088%, the bulls haven't given up, the probability of dropping from 76200 to 73500 is higher, I'm choosing short
The funding rate is still hanging at a positive 0.0088%, I really have to admit—price slid all the way from 76200 to 74100, yet the bulls are still paying protection fees and holding on stubbornly, this isn't faith, it's just not having been cut cleanly. Look, MA7 has already pressed down to 74253, MA25 is stuck above 75111 like a rock, the moving averages are just starting a bearish alignment, the space to drop is much larger than the chance to surge upward. Don't talk to me about "a new high after the pullback," volume and price aren't cooperating, what do the bulls have to fight with?
I already have a short position, added around 74100, stop loss set just above the Bollinger middle band at 74890, no messing around. Target first looks at the 73500 24-hour low, if broken then directly watch the 73000 round number. The rebound zone at 74400-74500 is my add-on area, not a take-profit zone, don't get it backwards.
Some people in the group are still asking if they should bottom-fish—you’re bottom-fishing on the bulls’ grave. Before the funding rate turns negative, I won’t go long a single share, just sideways like this. If you have different opinions, feel free to argue, liquidation orders will prove the truth.$BTC has been consolidating sideways near $75,000 for two full days. The thin weekend liquidity was expected, but the real signals lie beneath the surface calm: spot ETF inflows have turned net outflows this year, the short-term holders' cost basis and the mid-term moving average are right under the price floor, yet the RSI has not entered the oversold zone. This means the market is not bottoming out but is trading time for space, repeatedly testing narrow support levels, with every rebound being pushed back. Bulls are currently only holding on to "not losing" rather than "counterattacking." The most worrisome narrative rotation is happening with $ETH. Among the three major mainstream assets, it is the weakest: ETFs continue to bleed, the $ETH/$BTC ratio keeps declining, and what was once high beta now only has downward resilience. $2,240 is a critical watershed; until it is reclaimed, the downward bias is hard to reverse. This is not just weakness but a deliberate choice by capital to leave high-volatility assets and shift to more certain targets—the ETF fund flows already indicate that only a few targets are still recording net inflows. $SOL is stuck near $89; the aftereffects of previously canceled offline events have not yet dissipated, but this round is mainly passive following the decline rather than a fundamental problem. The real test will come with the non-farm payroll report before Tuesday's CPI; only after the data is released can a rebound be judged. In other words, $SOL's weakness is the result of sentiment and liquidity resonance, not a protocol-level fracture. Putting the three together, the crowd may be underestimating that $BTC's sideways consolidation is not a buildup but a slow capital withdrawal.On a broader scale that includes cash from different businesses and short-term government bonds, the amount was about $377.4 billion at the end of September, higher than $365.5 billion at the end of June, but still below approximately $397.4 billion at the end of Q1. The quarter-on-quarter rebound and the historical high are two different pieces of information.
What is more noteworthy is that the short-term government bonds on the books also include some unsettled purchases, with corresponding payments made after the balance sheet date. Treating all asset-side figures as funds that can be spent at any time can easily lead to overestimation.
Regarding buybacks, after $9.6 billion in Q3, about $2 billion was bought in the first four weeks of October. Management is indeed using funds, but the specific usage pace will still vary, and the amount from one quarter cannot be mechanically extrapolated to the whole year.
I appreciate the concrete actions provided by this financial report and do not want to assign too much market implication to every figure. Having more cash is not enough to prove that management believes the market will definitely fall; large buybacks cannot guarantee returns for investors.
Only by considering the cash scope, payable amounts, and actual buybacks together can one see the capital allocation clearly. This is closer to what the company is actually doing than focusing solely on a "record high" headline.
#伯克希尔Q3回购96亿美元，现金储备创新高 🔷 November 15: 127 million $STRK are unlocking
This is ≈$5.1 million with a daily volume of ≈$35.8 million: ≈14.3% turnover compared to ≈2% in October.
The number of tokens hasn't increased 7-fold, but the liquidity pressure has grown. Unlock is not a guaranteed dump.
What will the market absorb? 👇
DYOR.$BERA
Got on board first, then researched, and found it to be a big pit!
The project team is still operating based on previous funding; the economic model hasn't kicked in yet, they're still burning money with no actual income. It has truly become a bear chain, a chain no one plays on, a zombie chain.
Key data reference (recent):
- On-chain daily Gas revenue: about several tens of dollars
- Entire Berachain ecosystem monthly revenue: roughly in the tens of thousands of dollars range
- Previous funding: accumulated over 140 million dollars
Summary of the real situation:
- Currently, there is no profit from the protocol itself; operations mainly rely on previously raised funds.
- The team themselves admit the current model is unsustainable, so they plan to shift to the "Bera Builds Businesses" strategy in 2026, aiming to incubate or acquire applications that can generate sustainable income.
- For the project team, the more important sources of value currently are:
1. Large holdings of Ecosystem & R&D tokens (indirect value)
2. Previous funding capital
3. Potential future income if the ecosystem takes off