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Geopolitical risks and capital outflows exert simultaneous pressure. Explosions were reported in southern Iran, multiple oil tankers caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz, heightening risk-off sentiment; meanwhile, the combined net outflow of BTC and ETH spot ETFs in the US reached $1.65 billion in one week, with BTC ETFs seeing a $1.28 billion outflow—the worst single week since the end of June, ETH bleeding for the sixth consecutive week, and SOL ETFs ending a 14-week streak of net inflows.
$BTC: Around $74,642, falling below the 75,000 mark, down 1.83%. The 75,000–76,000 range (24h high 76,160) has turned into resistance, while 73,000 (24h low 73,385) is a key support line.
$ETH: Around $2,121, down 5.31%, significantly underperforming BTC. After losing 2,150, 2,050 (24h low 2,051) is the next psychological support.
$SOL: Around $86.59, down 3.44%. The ETF ended its 14-week inflow streak, but charts show a bottom test at 84.81 followed by a long lower shadow and MACD bullish divergence, indicating that volatility is mostly due to short-term liquidity contraction.
For record-keeping purposes only, not investment advice.
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ MORPHO continues to respect a well-defined horizontal trading range between 2.00 USD and 3.00 USD, successfully retesting its major support floor near 2.050 USD with clear lower-wick absorption. Contracting sell volume confirms seller exhaustion as responsive buyers step in to accumulate discounted inventory. Market technicals strongly favor a range-rotation Long position targeting the 2.995 USD ceiling with an exceptional risk-to-reward profile, $MORPHO
DYOR$UNITREE Yushù today +9%, not just hype. The joint venture with PetroChina is established, shifting from selling robots to selling energy infrastructure solutions, with TAM directly increasing tenfold. But a 516x PE also reminds: this is buying 2027 expectations, not 2026 performance. Short term watch the funds, long term watch the shipment volume. 1. Today's market: not a rebound, but a breakout Key signal: volume breakout. Today's turnover is 5.1 billion, nearly double the average daily turnover last week (about 2–3 billion), and the stock price stabilized above the 700 yuan integer mark. This is not retail investors following the trend, but institutions repricing. 2. Why the rise: three catalysts landing simultaneously 1. PetroChina joint venture: from "selling robots" to "selling solutions" On November 4, Beijing Market Supervision Bureau announced: PetroChina Kunlun Manufacturing + Kunlun Capital (holding 60% combined) plans to establish a joint venture with Yushù Technology (20%) and Fanjie Intelligence (20%), focusing on industrial embodied intelligent robot solutions covering oil and gas inspection, refining emergency response, gas station/charging and swapping integrated energy stations, and other scenarios. Valuation implication: Yushù is no longer just a hardware vendor but is entering the energy central enterprise's "intelligent infrastructure supplier" role. Oil and gas scenarios require extremely high robot reliability; once validated, it can be replicated to power, chemical, mining—TAM jumps directly from "scientific research and education" to "industrial infrastructure." 2. Rumors of Apple + Qianwen cooperation: robot "brain" narrative Today the market is circulating rumors of "Apple + Yushù +The total market capitalization of the crypto market rose by 40.86% this quarter, a figure I've been keeping an eye on 👀 MARA, DeFi Development, and Gemini will release their Q3 earnings reports this week, but the stock prices of all three have fallen since September 30. This is somewhat interesting, but a booming market doesn't necessarily mean companies are actually making money.
I think this earnings season feels more like an emotional test, with an indirect impact on small-cap coins. If the results can prove that the market rally has translated into revenue and cash flow, I speculate that the related sectors will attract more attention; if the fulfillment is insufficient, the sentiment propped up by narratives in highly volatile assets may also be pressured. However, since the stock price and market cap are measured over different periods, they cannot be directly used to prove who underperformed.
My observation sequence is to first look at profit sources, then see if the fundamentals echo in the related sectors, rather than directly using company earnings as a reason for small coin price increases. Recently, is everyone focusing on mining, DeFi, or trading service sectors? What do you most want to verify from this batch of earnings reports? On the evening of Sunday, November 8, Bitcoin dropped from 75,690 to 73,477 USD within 15 minutes, hitting a new low since August, then rebounded to the 74,500-75,000 range; Ethereum fell below 2,100 USD. The triggers were two news items: Jensen Huang admitted to an extramarital affair with a former executive of Singapore data center company Megaspeed, which is suspected by U.S. intelligence agencies of helping Chinese clients obtain restricted AI chips; Nvidia's board has launched an independent investigation; and Rubio publicly stated that the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks have "effectively collapsed." Neither alone would be fatal, but the timing was critical. Bitcoin's weekend trading volume accounts for only 16% of the weekly total, and Ethereum's Sunday volume dropped 76% compared to Saturday. With traditional markets closed, crypto as the only 24/7 traded risk asset absorbed the selling pressure alone—mirroring the "weekend spike" when Binance was hacked at the end of October, weekends are becoming the first venting zone for global risk events. Meanwhile, Nvidia's pre-market price once fell 6%-7%, wiping out about 270 billion USD in market value; U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of 1.28 billion USD last week, the largest weekly outflow since late June. Leverage is the second driving force. Over 1 billion USD was liquidated within 24 hours, with longs accounting for 913 million USD, and 210,000 people liquidated; ETH liquidations reached 448 million USD, surpassing BTC's 272 million USD, with the largest single position being a 48 million USD ETH position—one person lost 44.78 million USD on a 56,667 ETH long. The cycle of "bottom fishing—leveraging—liquidation" is precisely replicated with every rebound: weeksA trader opened a long position on Bitcoin ($BTC) with 100x leverage using an entire month's salary, entering at an average price of 75795.58. The current unrealized loss is 507.14, with a loss rate of 8.33%. The liquidation price is 75358.52, leaving only about 0.6% room from the entry price. Even though the margin ratio looks as high as 209.38%, under 100x leverage, slight price fluctuations can cause drastic changes in equity, leaving very little room for error. Here, it is important to distinguish that the liquidation price is the exchange's automatic close-out point and does not equal the trader's stop loss. If the trader can exit voluntarily before the liquidation line, it is possible to avoid the account being wiped out. However, the real test is whether one can withstand short-term spikes and stick to the preset exit plan. Many liquidations happen because of the gap between intention and actual execution. On a macro level, this position is also under pressure as the unexpectedly strong US non-farm payroll data has pushed up rate hike expectations. Such a high-interest-rate environment suppresses highly elastic assets, and Bitcoin ($BTC) with 100x leverage is a typical example of high elasticity. Ethereum ($ETH) and SOL ($SOL) usually amplify market volatility in sync, while DOGE ($DOGE) and XRP ($XRP) carry additional independent risks beyond the overall market direction. Choosing such high leverage is equivalent to betting on market stability in a macro environment prone to violent fluctuations. The 15-minute chart shows repeated oscillations, which can easily wear down one's mentality, causing panic exits at local lows. This position is more like a bet on the market rather than mature risk allocation. Rather than guessing whether this trade will recoverSince September 30, the stock prices of three companies have all declined, but what caught my attention was this detail: the past in the financial reports VS the expectations in the stock prices. MARA, DeFi Development, and Gemini released their Q3 reports this week, covering a quarter in which the total market capitalization of the crypto market clearly rose.
I tend to focus more on expectations rather than applauding impressive reports. An increase in total market capitalization does not mean every company's profitability improves simultaneously; even if quarterly results are good, it doesn't directly answer whether growth can be sustained. However, a stock price decline also cannot be taken as evidence of poor performance, and I don't want to mix these two things.
So my judgment is that whether this financial report can explain subsequent growth is more important than whether it can prove the previous quarter was lively. Do you stand on the side of "quarterly performance fulfillment is enough," or "it is necessary to explain how growth will continue"?#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 My answer is yes. In the crypto world, a 7x24-hour nonstop meat grinder filled with rampant high leverage and extremely volatile emotions, opening a position based solely on intuition, candlestick patterns, or rumors in WeChat groups is not trading, it's donating. Treat your trading account like a high-frequency operating company, then the mathematical expectation is the business plan of that company. No rational CEO would approve a budget for a project without positive expected value. Over the years in crypto, this is how I calculate and use mathematical expectation: 1. Use expected value to filter out fake opportunities and reject FOMO. The crypto space is never short of opportunities, but the deadliest are traps disguised as opportunities. Before opening a position, I list three parameters in my mind as if evaluating a business project: win rate, risk-reward ratio, and potential trial-and-error cost. Suppose I am bullish on Ethereum; if technical and capital analysis show a 40% win rate but a 1:3 risk-reward ratio, then the expected value = 0.4 × 3 - 0.6 × 1 = 0.6. This is positive expectation and worth trying. But if the win rate is 50% and risk-reward is 1:1, after deducting contract opening and closing fees and possible slippage losses, the expected value is very likely negative. If the calculation is negative, no matter how much FOMO there is, I firmly control my hand. Not losing is earning. 2. Expected value determines how I fire my bullets. Vitalik’s point is useful because fee burns measure one mechanism, not Ethereum’s whole economic case. If ETH demand in RWA and collateral use cases proves durable, it could matter more than whether issuance is fully offset in every period.
That still leaves a hard question: can those uses grow without weakening the decentralization and censorship resistance that give ETH credibility?
#VitalikETHStoreOfValue Mid-term intelligence report!
ETH and ZEC intelligence are in place, with risks and hotspots coexisting.
$ETH fundamentals sounding the alarm: Vitalik defines it as a store of value, but fee burning only offsets 3% of issuance, and L1 revenue has plummeted 99%. Spot ETFs have seen outflows for six consecutive weeks, supply has increased by over 1 million, foundation sell pressure combined with upgraded vulnerability delays, showing clear weakness. $SNDK SanDisk at $820: Is it a golden opportunity or a trap?
SanDisk has dropped from $2300 to $820, a decline of over 60%. However, its revenue surged 378% in the earnings report, data center revenue grew 1600%, gross margin reached 85%, and it announced a $5 billion buyback, yet the stock price still plunged.
The reason is simple: the market had overly high expectations earlier, and after the positive news was realized, valuations corrected. Additionally, leveraged long positions were liquidated en masse, amplifying the decline. But this does not mean the AI storage fundamentals have collapsed; AI training and data center demand continue to support the storage industry.
Support below is at 800-820; if broken, look for 750-780. Resistance above is at 900-950; if broken, look for 1000-1100.
After stabilizing at 800-820, you can gradually take light long positions, keeping total exposure at 5%-10%, with a stop loss below 780 and a target of 900-950. For short-term trades, wait for a 4-hour volume rebound before entering. If the rebound meets resistance at 900-950, light short positions can be attempted. For the long term, those optimistic about storage should prioritize spot positions and avoid high leverage bets on stock splits.
Xiaoyu believes the long-term logic for SNDK remains intact, but the short-term bottom is not yet confirmed. Only if 800-820 holds is it worth positioning; don’t rush to blindly bottom-fish.
#RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ Rocket Lab earnings report tonight, what I fear most is actually not the revenue....
The market expects revenue of about $257 million, roughly in line with the company's own guidance of $250–265 million, but the gross margin guidance is only 29–31%, while Q2 was still 36.1%
Additionally, the Neutron rocket's maiden flight has been delayed to 2027, and last Thursday the stock price dropped 12% in one day. The report will be released after the US market closes early Tuesday morning Taiwan time, with a 6 o'clock conference call. I will focus on the gross margin and the new Neutron schedule.
#RocketLab財報前瞻：Neutron火箭進展如何？ INTC's two most expensive trades today moved in opposite directions.
09:00: A large sell of 82,807 shares pushed the price down to 54.83, closing at 55.97 — the price was below when the most money was spent. 10:00: Only 27,194 shares were used to push the price up to 57.23, the 24h high, with a cost of only one-third.
15:00: The only significant sell: 51,592 shares dropped the price to 54.19. Then two buys of 25,637 + 39,475 shares lifted it back to 56.12; the money spent on selling was just over twice as much, but the price gave back more than half the gain. 18:00: A pullback to 55.76 used only 28,631 shares; 19:00 closed at 56.02, standing above the MA20 at 56.00; 20:00: in twenty minutes, 6,028 shares pushed it to 56.35.
Current price 56.35, 24h -0.04%: expensive to sell, expensive to recover, no cheap trades on either side.
If it pulls back to 56.00~55.90 without breaking and closes above 56.40 (volume ≥ 25,000) → go long, stop loss at 55.60, target 57.23, risk-reward ratio 2.4.
If it breaks below 55.66 with volume (≥ 30,000) → short on rebound at 55.85~56.00, stop loss at 56.20, target 54.19, risk-reward ratio 2.7.
If neither condition is met, wait.
$INTC
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)#RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ $BTC RocketLab earnings preview: How is the Neutron rocket progressing? This is one of the most anticipated questions after the U.S. stock market closes tonight. Rocket Lab (RKLB) will release its Q3 earnings report around 5 AM Beijing time on November 10, followed by a conference call at 6 AM. 1. Market expectations • Revenue around $257 million, a year-over-year increase of about 66% to 72%, within the company's guidance range of $250 million to $265 million • Expected loss per share between $0.02 and $0.07, with adjusted EBITDA loss guidance of $17 million to $23 million • Backlog reached a record $2.36 billion at the end of last quarter 2. Neutron is the real highlight On October 14, the company announced that Neutron's maiden flight was postponed from Q4 2026 to 2027 due to delamination and porosity issues in the composite dome of the first stage propellant tank. The latest update is: the replacement first-stage forward dome has completed curing, followed by material testing, with first-stage final assembly, hydrostatic, and cryogenic tests scheduled for Q1. CEO Peter Beck said he prefers to show real-time progress rather than provide a date that might be retracted. Therefore, it is unlikely that a new maiden flight date will be given tonight; the market will be watching to see if the testing milestones proceed as planned Bitcoin fell below 74,000, with 150,000 people liquidated in 24 hours, 90% of them long positions.
Last week, ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.28 billion, and stablecoin supply evaporated by 6.66 billion in one week — the deepest drain since the 2022 UST crash.
Don't rush to shout "end of the world." This round isn't a problem on-chain; it's the US stock market AI bubble bursting, with leveraged longs being liquidated in tandem. The chain hasn't collapsed, but money is flowing out.
Tuesday's CPI data is the real test. If the data is soft, a rebound is possible; if the data is strong, the 70,000 level will be seen.
Now is not the time for faith, but for position management. #软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ $ETH $BTC $DOGE 1. Essentially unchanged: Iran says "no new proposal, still the original one," only shortening the implementation deadline from "7 days" to "2 days."
2. Breaking expectations: There is a very accurate tag under the news — "breaking external compromise expectations." It means the US and Iran are still pulling to the limit, with no intention to reconcile immediately.
3. Impact on the crypto circle: The Middle East remains unsettled, so crude oil prices can't come down; crude oil prices can't come down, inflation can't be controlled; inflation can't be controlled, the Federal Reserve has to keep talking tough. This is an implicit negative for risk assets (Bitcoin, US stocks).
#美伊外交斡旋持续，霍尔木兹通航分歧待解 $BTC $UNITREE is sharply rallying vertically, really making those nearly 70% of stubborn shorts sweat. The long-short ratio has been suppressed to an extreme low of 0.45, and with deep negative funding rates, shorts are not only getting hit but also paying fees—classic short squeeze meat grinder.
Although the moving average system shows a perfect bullish alignment, the price is severely deviated from the short-term lifeline, with the divergence rate off the charts. This rocket candle directly hit the strong supply zone at 108.88, and momentum indicators are dulled in the extremely overbought area. The risk-reward ratio for chasing the high is completely rotten here, with no margin of safety. The subsequent move will most likely face a sharp downward retracement to test moving average support and digest extreme sentiment. Absolutely do not bottom-fish on the left side; wait for volume contraction, a stable pullback, and right-side structural reconstruction before considering any position.ETH -0.94%
BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw a combined net outflow exceeding $1.6 billion in a single week. This is not an isolated event but a clear signal of a shift in institutional capital rhythm. Bitcoin products experienced a weekly outflow of $1.28 billion, wiping out and turning negative the cumulative net inflow for this year; Ethereum products have had net outflows for six consecutive weeks, with a larger cumulative scale and a redemption intensity significantly higher relative to their managed assets compared to Bitcoin.
BlackRock's IBIT has dominated Bitcoin-side outflows for several consecutive days, with most Ethereum-side redemptions also contributed by BlackRock's funds. This appears more like a concentrated portfolio adjustment by large holders rather than retail sentiment-driven. During the same period, other crypto-related products showed differentiated performance, but mainstream BTC and ETH channels were simultaneously under pressure, indicating a cross-asset risk appetite contraction rather than a simple BTC/ETH rotation.
The impact on price lies in liquidity and expectations. ETF net outflows directly increase spot supply, combined with cautious market trading and sentiment, which tends to amplify volatility. Historical experience shows that after institutional capital phases out temporarily, if the macro environment does not further deteriorate, a recovery window often follows; however, the current consecutive weekly negative values have persisted for a long time, and recovery requires clearer catalysts.
Open the ETF capital panel and continuously track signals of redemption convergence. #
$ETH $BTC $SOL [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Brothers and sisters, recently the US and Iran have been fiercely "tugging" back and forth. The diplomatic negotiations seem lively, but once it comes to the core issue of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, it immediately stalls. Pharaoh shakes his head while holding his coffee: this is not peace talks, it's a stare-down over the "main artery" of global inflation!
The causal chain here is extremely deadly:
Strait of Hormuz navigation dispute ➡️ 20% of global crude oil transport faces interruption risk ➡️ International oil prices could surge again at any time ➡️ US inflation expectations revive ➡️ Pharaoh (Powell) is forced to maintain a hawkish stance, absolutely unwilling to cut rates ➡️ The US dollar and US Treasury yields continue to drain liquidity ➡️ Crypto and other risk assets get further drained of liquidity!
Brothers, Bitcoin is already in ICU due to ETF outflows and a blowout non-farm payroll. If the Middle East stirs up trouble pushing oil prices sky-high, the Fed's door to rate cuts will be completely shut, and any Bitcoin rebound will be just empty talk.
Pharaoh's outlook on Bitcoin:
Macro uncertainty is extremely high, with a bearish overall trend. As long as the geopolitical conflict remains unresolved and oil prices are not fully stabilized, every Bitcoin rebound will be ruthlessly suppressed by the overhead trapped positions. The mid-term view remains weak with a choppy bottoming process.
If Bitcoin drops to the strong support at 73000/72500 and stabilizes, try light position testing with a stop loss firmly set at 71700, target 74000/75000 for friends, and a break-even loss control at 78000! $BTC $ETH $SOL #美伊外交斡旋持续，霍尔木兹通航分歧待解 1. Market Overview: Not a Flash Crash, but a Stepwise Decline
Let's first look at a set of numbers. ETH's performance this week can be divided into three phases: a rebound to a high of 2,446 on Monday → a continuous three-day decline from Wednesday to Friday → a flash dip to 2,052 early Saturday morning followed by a rebound to $2,135. This is not a one-time panic but a stepwise downward shift—each rebound peak is lower than the previous one, and each drop's low point keeps refreshing lower. YCharts data shows ETH currently at $2,124, down 37.5% compared to a year ago. The narrative of "digital silver" this year is being repriced by reality.
2. Macro and Events: Triple Pressure Hits Simultaneously
1. Binance Hack: A Crack in Industry Trust
The biggest single event this week was Binance suffering a $6.3 billion hack—Reuters called it the largest cryptocurrency theft in history, attributed to the North Korean hacker group TraderTraitor. Binance froze withdrawals for several days and then resumed them in phases, but within the first 9.5 hours after withdrawal resumption, a net outflow of about $3.64 billion occurred, accounting for 2.1% of its $171 billion in assets.
The impact on ETH is not direct—the stolen assets were mainly BTC and platform tokens—but systemic: when the largest exchange in the industry is breached, the credibility of all centralized infrastructure is questioned. As the underlying asset of DeFi, ETH's valuation logic heavily depends on the narrative of "on-chain financial infrastructure." The narrativeMoney is leaving the market, but not all outflows mean the same thing. The biggest pressure right now appears to be coming from leveraged positions rather than spot investors. 📊 Spot Market Outflows: - $BTC: $105M - $ETH: $204M - $SOL: $9.05M - $ZEC: $16.96M Futures Market Outflows: - BTC: $831M - ETH: $1.232B - SOL: $145M - ZEC: $56.94M The difference is significant. Futures outflows are several times larger than spot outflows, suggesting that leveraged traders are reducing exposure. Other ind$ZIL staring at this pulse big bullish candle descending from the sky really gave me a cold sweat.
The macro waterfall on the daily chart is far from over, and the one-hour level sharp rally is purely a stress reaction after extreme overselling. This kind of sudden vertical surge has no safety margin at all, with a very poor risk-reward ratio. Above are dense trapped positions crushed down from 0.0046, and the main force will never act like a good Samaritan. Blindly chasing the high now is just handing over heads to a liquidity trap, severely testing the blind fanaticism of those taking the risk.
Most likely, the follow-up will be a high pullback distribution, then continuing to follow the path of least resistance downward to find a bottom in the larger cycle. Don't touch it. On-chain assets can be temporarily frozen during disputes, which I think is more worth pondering than "judgments on-chain": for the judiciary to integrate with blockchain, the first challenge is actually asset control rights.
The Dubai DIFC Court released a white paper proposing a "dispute resolution oracle" framework that allows parties to pre-agree on jurisdiction and send authorized execution instructions on-chain after a judgment, aiming to promote it as an international standard. But this is still a proposal and should not be treated as an already implemented rule.
I tend to see it as a systemic benefit for on-chain commerce rather than a market boost. My speculation is that if temporary freezing can effectively prevent disputed assets from being transferred, then the certainty of on-chain contract execution may improve. After all, no matter how well a contract is written, if a dispute leaves only an empty wallet, the judgment easily becomes just an IOU.
However, I also have concerns: if the triggering conditions for freezing, the scope of authorization, and channels for objections are unclear, then a tool meant to reduce default risk could also increase the risk of assets being mistakenly restricted. For ordinary users, I care more about informed consent than the label of "international standard." If signing an on-chain agreement requires accepting such judicial freezing clauses, would you accept it? Which protective condition would you absolutely not want to give up? There is an on-chain address that only does one thing every two months: buying $WLD.
It has accumulated nearly 6 million tokens, spending about 1.865 million USD, with an average price of 0.322 USD. Today it added another 2.098 million tokens in one transaction, accounting for more than one-third of its total holdings so far. This is not a casual test position; it is a steady, rhythmic accumulation.
First, look at the cost. The average price of 0.322 indicates most of its chips are at a low level. The description says "buying on dips," and today's purchase is likely still near that average price. Being able to repeatedly absorb tokens in the same price range over two months shows it has its own judgment about this valuation line and is not just pushed by the market.
Next, look at the rhythm. Two months, in batches, buying more as the price falls—this behavior usually corresponds to two types of people: those who know something in advance, or those who treat WLD as a long-term position. Neither can be confirmed, but the common point is they are not in a hurry. Those chasing gains are impatient; those who are not willing to average cost over two months are patient.
For ordinary holders, it provides a cost reference, not a buy signal. Nearly 6 million tokens sounds like a lot, but it has no obligation to support the price, nor a public exit plan. Once it turns to distributing, it will also bring selling pressure at the 2 million token level.
What really matters is not whether to follow or not, but that it has never increased its position during a price rally. If this rhythm changes, for example, if it starts buying more at high prices, that would be a signal of a change in nature.40x leverage makes me pause more than just "going long." Core Trader 78 opened a long position of 1 $BTC at a reference price of $74,050 this time, with a nominal position size of about $74,100. My comparison for this trade is: correctly predicting the direction VS enduring volatility; the former does not equal the latter.
Roughly calculating, ignoring maintenance margin and fees, a reverse movement of about 2.5% at 40x leverage is enough to wipe out the initial margin; the actual liquidation price also depends on the margin mode and additional funding. This doesn't mean it will definitely lose, but if the price drops first then rises, the directional call might be right, but the position might not survive.
Therefore, I care more about how much fault tolerance this trade has left rather than how determined the long bias is. Without seeing stop-loss and margin arrangements, I won’t treat high leverage as a high probability of success. Given the same bullish view, would you choose to lower leverage to leave room, or accept 40x with tighter stop-loss?The crypto community has its own financial system. How much does the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike relate to the crypto world?#RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ Tonight in the US stock market, I am more focused on two events with clear timelines: Rocket Lab's earnings report to verify the company's operations, and the next day's CPI to check inflation changes. The impact paths of these two on stock prices are different; just because they occur in the same trading window does not mean the same logic of rise and fall applies.
As of the evening of November 9, 2026, Beijing time, both of these milestones are still ahead. My judgment is to first separate the company's fulfillment ability from market valuation conditions, and update views after new data appears, which is more useful than betting on a direction in advance.
Rocket Lab: First look at business fulfillment, then at long-term imagination
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) has scheduled to release its Q3 2026 financial results after the US market closes on Monday, November 9, with a conference call at 5 PM Eastern Time, corresponding to 6 AM Beijing time on November 10. This timing is the company's announced schedule, not that the earnings report has already been released. I have 20 long BTC positions at $74,906 with an unrealized loss of $100, and 100 long ETH positions at $2,148 with an unrealized loss of $350, holding through CPI stubbornly 😅
$BTC just dipped below $74k then pulled back, 4H RSI=30 oversold, MA20_4H pressing at $75,597. ETFs ran off $1.28 billion last week, the worst since June, institutions are withdrawing.
According to indicators, there will be a rebound after CPI, take half profit on longs at $75,500 to lock in gains. If $73,500 breaks, cut immediately at market price.
$ETH 4H RSI=20, even more oversold than BTC, with greater rebound elasticity, stop loss at $2,080.
If tonight's CPI inflation exceeds expectations, do you think BTC will break $73,500 or pull back to $76,000? Bet your price in the comments 👇
#Bitcoin #BTC #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大 #加密货币Tonight, I am more focused on two events in the US stock market with clear timelines: Rocket Lab's earnings report to verify the company's operations, and the next day's CPI to check inflation changes. The impact paths of these two on stock prices are different, so they cannot be explained by the same rise and fall logic just because they occur within the same trading window. As of the evening of November 9, 2026, Beijing time, both of these milestones are still ahead. My judgment is to first separate the company's fulfillment ability from market valuation conditions, and update views after new data appears, which is more useful than betting on a direction in advance. Rocket Lab: first look at business fulfillment, then at long-term imagination. Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) has scheduled to release its Q3 2026 financial results after the US market closes on Monday, November 9, with a conference call at 5 PM Eastern Time, corresponding to 6 AM Beijing time on November 10. This schedule is announced by the company and does not mean the earnings report has already been released.$LINEA surging forward with intense buyer focus and clean trend control.
Buy Zone
0.00201 - 0.002055[span_3](start_span)[span_3](end_span)
Ep
0.002030
Tp
0.002150
0.002280
0.002450
Sl
0.001940
Liquidity is expanding rapidly as bulls keep market order flow fully under control. The next push expected to clear upper barriers easily.
Let's go $LINEA
#OKXOrbitTopics US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.28 billion last week, marking the largest single-week loss since the end of June.
BlackRock led the charge with the harshest outflow: IBIT alone saw $1.21 billion withdrawn, accounting for 95% of the week's total, marking six consecutive weeks of net redemptions and a cumulative withdrawal of $1.44 billion since October 30.
Fidelity's FBTC bucked the trend with a net inflow of $93 million, becoming the only shield in the market.
The cost is reflected in the market: Bitcoin briefly dropped to $73,510 on Sunday, a two-and-a-half-month low, with five consecutive weekly declines, breaking below the 50-week moving average; $1.14 billion was liquidated across the network in 24 hours, 90% of which were long positions.
ETH funds also saw a net outflow of $365 million last week, currently priced at $2,113, down 5.6% in 24 hours.
In my opinion, this round of decline is not a black swan but a clear signal of institutions voting with their feet—once ETF money withdraws, Bitcoin is left only with native demand and leverage support, naturally weakening its foundation.
This week's key event is Tuesday night: US October CPI. If data exceeds expectations and rate hike expectations tighten, $74,000 will take another hit.
Invalidation condition: If the weekly close recovers above $76,000, this bearish outlook is void.
So the question arises: Is the $1.28 billion ETF outflow a temporary exit due to institutional year-end portfolio adjustments, or a formal shift in bull market capital?
$BTC $ETH
#BitcoinETF #Bitcoin$YB is trading at $0.04947 (+9.83%), strong within its 24h range between $0.04354 and $0.04984.
Price is trading above MA5 ($0.04900), MA10 ($0.04838) and MA20 ($0.04744), after a sharp breakout from the $0.04354 low.
Driven by $1.73M USDT in daily turnover and 34.96M $YB in 24h volume, holding above $0.04947 could open the way for a bullish push back toward the $0.04984 high.
@OKX成长学院 #DailyOrbit $xEWT charging ahead with explosive potential and rising buy volume.
Buy Zone
90.50 - 92.12[span_4](start_span)[span_4](end_span)
Ep
91.40
Tp
95.00
98.50
102.50
Sl
88.80
Volume is compounding fast at current base levels. Expect a swift upward surge as soon as local resistance gets wiped out.
Let's go $xEWT
#OKXOrbitTopics Coverage: Gold, crude oil, storage chips and AI storage, AI industry, crypto market, US Treasury yields, US dollar index, Fed rate hike or cut probabilities Market overview Last week, US stocks first plunged then rebounded. Thursday was the worst day this year, with the S&P down 4.4%, the Nasdaq down 5.5%, the Dow down 1833 points, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plummeting 12.3%, wiping out over $2 trillion in market value in one day. On Friday, there was a mixed rebound: the Nasdaq rose 1.09% to 24,579.42, the S&P rose 0.31% to 7,376.86, the Dow fell 0.46% to 51,285.73, and the fear index fell back to 25.64. For the whole week, the Nasdaq still fell 3.4%, the S&P fell 2.7%, and the Dow fell 0.9%. The Nasdaq has dropped more than 10% from its October high, entering correction territory. Gold Spot gold broke through $4,100 early Monday, around $4,110, up more than 1% from 24 hours ago. It closed around $4,075 last Friday, up about 4.7% for the week. December rate hike expectations are weighing on gold prices, but safe-haven demand is still supporting it, and gold has shown an independent trend at high levels. Crude oil Brent closed at $98.32 on Friday, WTI at $90.83, with Brent down about 17% and WTI down about 13% for the week. On Monday during Asian hours, oil prices slightly retreated, with Brent at $97.59 and WTI at $90.41. Diplomatic efforts have made progress, quickly removing war premiums, but disagreements over Strait of Hormuz navigation remain unresolved, so oil prices remain news-driven. Storage chips andEvening of November 9th Strontium Route
The European session overall maintains a range-bound pattern, with prices initially dipping to around 4084, then gradually rising, currently recovering to near 4109, remaining in a volatile trend. $XAU has been consistently taking long positions throughout the day; the actual entry was staggered around 4066/4063, successfully securing 120k long contracts! A total space of over 120 points. In the afternoon, a long strategy was suggested again, currently gaining nearly 30 points.
Observing the four-hour chart, gold prices are consolidating sideways at a high level, with very limited pullback, indicating strong support below. The overall trend center is steadily rising. Technically, prices are gradually recovering losses supported by a strong support zone below. Although there is still some resistance above, the short-term pullback and accumulation action tends to be a bullish continuation, with the retracement process showing considerable restraint. In terms of trading, after confirming support on the pullback, consider entering long positions opportunistically, paying close attention to attempts to break through resistance above. The overall outlook remains bullish with a strong oscillation bias.
$XAUT Gold pullback: long near 4090-4080, target above 4140.
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ Bitcoin at $74,000 is not "finding the bottom," it is already "at the bottom."
The definition of oversold is not "falling a lot," but the price falling below all reasonable anchors based on long-term growth models and cycle structures, while the fundamental supply structure (fixed supply, halving progression, institutional holding cost lines) has not deteriorated at all. Ahr999 falling to 0.43, long-term holders surrendering, the cycle time window precisely reaching November 2026, the largest corporate holders dragged to the breakeven line—these four things happening simultaneously in one price range have never pointed to "continued bear market" in Bitcoin's history, only to the "bottom area."
The only arguments shorts can present now are "ETF outflows" and "macro uncertainty." But ETF outflows are the result of price declines, not the cause; macro bearishness has already been priced in at $74,000. When all the bad news visible has already been absorbed by the price, and valuation indicators are shouting "historically this is the time to buy," what you should do is not follow the crowd, but stand opposite to it. There may still be short-term fluctuations; touching $73,000 or even $70,000 is not impossible. But as an extremely bullish analyst, my judgment is unequivocal: the current price is within the confidence interval of the cycle bottom, downward movement is noise, upward movement is the cycle. This is not investment advice, but if you ask me "Is this the bottom now?"—my answer is: you are much closer to the bottom than to the top. #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% $BTC Filecoin represents an important idea in decentralized infrastructure: digital storage should not depend entirely on a handful of centralized providers. Yet the real challenge is converting available storage capacity into recurring commercial demand. Storage utilization, retrieval performance, customer retention, and sustainable provider economics will ultimately reveal whether decentralized storage can compete beyond its technological appeal.Holding without selling doesn't mean no loss? This idea was harshly taught a lesson by CORE recently. Have you ever calculated how much it costs just to "wait" on a position? I used to think that unrealized losses were just numbers on the screen, and as long as I didn't sell, there was still a chance to recover. But looking at CORE's recent performance, my thoughts have gradually changed. The most direct feeling isn't how much the price has dropped again, but that the market is getting quieter—depth thinning, sparse order books, and declining discussion heat. Recently, there was news that exchanges stopped supporting it, which was like a cold shower, waking half of the "let's wait and see" luck. What I really care about is not the gain or loss of a certain coin, but where the capital preference is shifting. People stuck with old positions like CORE face not only paper losses but also opportunity costs: money locked here means watching other sectors rise without action. When exchanges reduce support and the narrative fails to connect with new stories, risk appetite in the market tends to contract first rather than expand. Everyone says "hold long-term," but actual trading behavior is more honest—new funds are reluctant to enter such catalysts-lacking assets, while existing funds tend to move toward BTC, ETH, which have stronger consensus, or simply retreat to stablecoins to observe. The feeling is even more obvious at the altcoin level: not all sectors cool down together, but capital chooses more carefully, only willing to support directions with clear catalysts and trading cooperation. Of course, a bullish path also exists: if the project can deliver real progress later and regain exchange support, the rebound elasticity after overselling won't be small, since floating supply has already been worn down.Brent fell 16.42% last week, WTI dropped 12.76%, marking the largest weekly decline since 2020. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Previously, prices managed to hold above $90, relying on the expectation of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked and escalating Middle East conflicts. Now that Trump has stated the likelihood of striking Iran again in the short term is very low, and Iran has signaled willingness to negotiate, the market has started to squeeze out the premium. Once the premium retreats, bullish sentiment flees. Many funds originally entered due to geopolitical panic; when the wind changes, profit-taking and stop-loss orders hit simultaneously, making the market prone to a stampede. However, it is still too early to say a one-sided crash is confirmed. On the supply side, conditions are looser than expected: OPEC+ has set the tone of no production cuts in December, and Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait increased exports by 10% month-on-month in October, totaling over 15 million barrels per day. But geopolitical risks have not disappeared; Iran remains firm, demanding a ceasefire and sanctions relief first, ships near the Strait of Hormuz are still being attacked, and shipping and insurance costs remain high. Going forward, watch two signals: one, whether negotiations achieve substantive progress; two, whether navigation through the strait truly resumes. If both advance, oil prices will continue to squeeze out premiums; if negotiations break down or attacks recur, a violent short-term rebound is very likely. At this point, do not chase shorts or rush to bottom-fish; wait for the range to develop before deciding. #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ On the first day of the short-selling restriction, the Taiwan stock market rose nearly 5%, while foreign investors directly sold 90 billion TWD 😂
Last April, when the same short-selling restriction was implemented, the Taiwan stock market dropped nearly 10% on the first day, and foreign investors even bought 16.8 billion that day.
I just checked the three major institutional investors data released by the Taiwan Stock Exchange; today, only local Taiwanese funds had net purchases of 26.7 billion, while proprietary trading desks of brokerages were selling, with the three combined having a net sale of 94.5 billion.
The short-selling restriction controls borrowed stocks, cutting the quota for short-selling on borrowed shares by 90%, and raising the margin requirement for short sales to 130%. Foreign investors selling their own stocks, which do not require borrowing, are not affected.
Including last week, foreign investors have sold over 610 billion in the Taiwan stock market over 6 trading days.
The 94.5 billion worth of stocks sold were all picked up by retail investors and money outside the three major institutional investors.
Do you dare to chase this bullish candlestick? 🥲81-Year Inflation VS Income Buyback: The Mathematical Truth of CORE Token Economy Closed Loop, A Must-Read for Retail Investors
The total supply cap of CORE is 2.1 billion tokens, with consensus rewards released on an 81-year cycle, and the annual issuance rate decays by 3.61%. The project team's design logic: although continuous issuance lasts for decades, future real income generated from ecosystem fees, SatPay, and other businesses will be used to buy back CORE on the secondary market, offsetting inflation dilution and completing the token economy closed loop. From a mathematical perspective, for the closed loop to hold, it must satisfy: annual buyback amount ≥ the circulating market value corresponding to the newly issued token selling pressure that year. Once buyback strength cannot keep up with new supply, holders' equity will be continuously diluted. This is the hardest constraint of the entire model and the key point most retail investors tend to overlook. The current biggest contradiction: the 81-year inflation is a deterministic supply fixed in the release curve, while ecosystem buyback is only expected income in the roadmap. So far, there is a lack of verifiable, normalized large-scale buyback records on-chain; ecosystem fee income is meager and fundamentally unable to hedge the long-term token release pressure. Coupled with the impact of the b14g theft incident and the Bithumb delisting countdown, market confidence has been severely damaged. Validators tend to sell their rewards immediately for cash, further amplifying selling pressure. Homogeneous projects like Babylon in the same sector continue to divert funds, making it difficult for the CORE ecosystem to quickly generate sufficient fee income. In summary: the 81-year inflation is a certain "liability," while buyback is an "asset" yet to be realized. Before real and sustainable buyback is implementedThis wave just can't be pulled up and is being forced. Iran hinted at abandoning the Strait toll, which indeed smashed oil prices again; Brent crude fell to around $95, and WTI also declined in sync. $BTC $ETH $SNDK
But this is not the ultimate goal of the US. What the US really wants is to remove Iran's actual control over the Strait, restore free navigation, weaken Iran's leverage, and bring Iranian funds and exports back under a regulatory framework. Whether to charge tolls or not is just one part of the negotiation.
This temporary plan has not yet been finalized. Qatar is mediating, Iran agrees to a framework for reopening the Strait, the US is considering lifting maritime and economic blockades, Iran would stop attacking ships, and unfreeze funds stored in Qatar. But Iran is still unwilling to discuss its nuclear program, there is internal resistance within the US, and Iran's Foreign Ministry continues to emphasize that lifting sanctions and stopping the war are prerequisites. The situation may fluctuate at any time.
In trading, the idea of shorting at high levels can continue, but don't chase the sharp drop after the news lands. Crude oil has already fallen consecutively, and the market has partially priced in expectations of easing geopolitical tensions. A safer approach is to wait for a rebound to confirm resistance levels before entering, or use options to control tail risk. If negotiations suddenly collapse and conflict in the Strait resumes, oil prices will rebound quickly, so shorts should keep tight stop losses. #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $HYPE My clear bearish view: The biggest problem in this wave is those who keep adding more when it drops to $72.4.
No beating around the bush, I have a clear bearish view recently, and I indeed hold a short position with a stop loss set; if I'm wrong, I'll admit it.
Today's market rebound triggered an on-chain alert: a large amount of HYPE was unstaked and transferred to FalconX, which may create selling pressure. The price responded accordingly, with the 24-hour low moving from $73.145 in the morning to $72.428. The $73 support broke easily during intraday trading; the current price is around $73.3, down 5.3% intraday, with a 24-hour high of $78.142. The total open interest in the market remains at 114 million unchanged, and the bulls can't even mount a decent rebound.
Some asked me if it should have bottomed after dropping nearly $17 from $88.9; I disagree. From $97 down, at $85.5, $82.5, $80, $77, $73, each support broken adds another layer of trapped longs above. The rebounds are for those trapped longs to sell, not for a market reversal; the fee rate is still at 0.00749%. The more it falls, the more people add to their long positions. This group hasn't admitted defeat, so no one will call the bottom.
Of course, I might be wrong. If it truly rallies back above $77 with volume, I'll close my position immediately. Views are views, positions are positions. I'd rather hold the short and wait for the market to prove itself than guess a bottom no one dares to call.
(Personal notes, contracts come with leverage, set your stop loss properly) I noticed that in OKX's public liquidation data, there were 100 liquidations of $BTC USDT perpetual contracts in the past hour, totaling at least $3.12 million, with shorts accounting for 100%, and the largest single liquidation around $1.64 million. This is somewhat interesting, but I wouldn't directly take it as a signal for a small-cap market rally.👀
My judgment is that this looks more like localized short squeezes rather than proof of a broad market strength shift. The largest single liquidation exceeds half of the total amount, indicating concentration; you can't just look at the total number and imagine the full scope of the short squeeze. Also, this is only OKX's one-hour record and can't be extrapolated to the entire market.
The opportunity in high-volatility assets lies in the spread of sentiment, and the risk is there too: if BTC's strength continues, I guess the risk appetite for small caps might be driven up; if it's just a brief short squeeze, chasing the sentiment could easily get you shaken out by volatility. I will keep watching whether liquidations persist and if the heat spreads to more sectors, and I won't use one hour of data to boost my confidence.The logic of BCH still revolves around payment attributes, the PoW ecosystem, and Bitcoin-related asset rotation. Compared to overvalued new narratives, BCH is more likely to be reconsidered by the market when attention focuses on payment applications or the miner ecosystem, but sustainability ultimately depends on actual usage and capital follow-through. The recent rise in Bitcoin payment discussions also brings some associative space for BCH. The overall market is relatively defensive, with no clear independent drivers yet; going forward, it will most likely continue to be influenced by BTC trends and the overall market risk appetite. $BCHFollowing the direction of the US stock market, but will underperform again. Crypto has already pulled back with reduced volume in advance (BTC 74,596, ETH 2,121). This rebound is not a bottoming formation, just short covering. The key tonight is not "whether it will rise," but "whether the upward surge can be accompanied by volume." 1. Current status: pullback with reduced volume, not a reversal Hourly volume is declining, but price is moving up — this is the pattern to be most cautious about. Same for ETH: 41,915 → 37,519 → 11,076 → 10,150 → 9,487. New price highs with new lows in volume = selling pressure disappears but buying demand hasn't arrived. BTC is still below EMA8 76,174, ETH is still below EMA8 2,213 — according to the rule "pullback with reduced volume that doesn't break the moving average → no entry." 2. Today's divergence is the focus Risk assets are rising, crypto is falling, down 2–6 percentage points. This indicates crypto is currently in a "self-deleveraging" phase (today's liquidations: $1.37 billion, 137,000 people), beta is failing — US stocks rise 0.5%, crypto may only follow 0.2%; US stocks fall 0.5%, crypto will amplify to 1.5%. This asymmetry will not improve tonight. 3. Three scenarios and probabilities Scenario A | US stocks open high and continue rising, QQQ closes up >0.5% (probability 28%) Trigger: NVDA narrows losses from -5% to within -2%, AMD/AVGO/TSM continueThere's something I don't quite understand: a company's stock sells for only $0.1429, yet the company itself is willing to buy it back at $0.26, paying 82% more.
Hyperscale Data is doing just that, with a $50 million cap, exchanging every 100 shares for $2 in cash plus a $24 preferred share with a 12% annual interest. It sounds generous, but the threshold is participation of at least 100 million shares, and the launch won't happen until around November 17.
If you really think it's undervalued, why not just buy on the market directly? $BTC holders probably feel unfamiliar with this; if it drops, it just drops—no one issues interest-bearing notes.A stop-loss order is not insurance; it is a sell order placed below.
$ETH long positions are repeatedly knocked out, and many people think it's just bad luck.
What is this price level: once the stop-loss price is hit, the system sells at market price for you.
When sell orders exceed buy orders, the price slides down a bit more.
Who is placing orders here: as the price slides down, it hits the next batch of people's stop-loss prices.
One batch after another, it looks like someone is dumping.
Taking it a step further, the bottom has no fixed point.
The stop-loss dense areas get cleared out, and only then will the selling pressure stop.
Wait until this spike finishes and the price no longer goes down, then take another look.
#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元
#$ETH A US-listed AI data center company is preparing to buy back its own shares at a price 82% higher than the market price.
Hyperscale Data announced a tender offer capped at $50 million, involving up to 192.307692 million Class A common shares. The price is not pure cash: for every 100 shares, shareholders receive 1 unit consisting of $2 in cash plus 1 preferred share with a set value of $24 and an annual dividend rate of 12%. This equates to $0.26 per share, while the closing price on November 6 was only $0.1429.
The structure is worth analyzing. A pure cash buyback would require a one-time payment of $50 million, which would put considerable pressure on the data center still expanding capacity. By converting to preferred shares, the payment is effectively deferred to the future, while also giving shareholders a fixed income note with a 12% yield.
The threshold is not low. The offer requires at least 100 million shares to participate to become effective, expected to launch around November 17, pending board and regulatory approval. There is interest and a price, but no deal yet.
For the crypto market, $BTC and $ETH will not change their trends because of this. What really matters is how computing power assets are priced: on the US stock market, the company is valued at $0.14 per share, but the company itself believes it is worth $0.26; on-chain computing power tokens have never had a tender offer floor and rely solely on sentiment. This price gap is more worth pondering than the announcement itself.Treating validator rewards as "salary" rather than "airdrops" changes the narrative around $ETH. $ETH is currently priced at 2237.12 USDT, down 0.4% in 24 hours, with a calm price, but the economics of staking are being reexamined. Running an Ethereum validator node and receiving coins is just the outcome; submitting proofs on time is the prerequisite. Going offline or missing tasks results in reduced earnings or penalties, while the costs for machines, bandwidth, and maintenance don’t disappear just because you’re offline. This is more like an operational business where income fluctuates with uptime, but costs remain fixed. The market tends to treat staking rewards as a risk-free interest rate, which is the biggest cognitive bias. Occasionally missing a proof usually only means reduced rewards or minor penalties; severe penalties are triggered by malicious acts like double voting. In other words, most daily risks mean "earning less" rather than "losing money," but the cumulative effect of earning less is an underestimated variable in the validator economic model. As more people treat nodes as passive income machines, differences in uptime and maintenance quality will quietly widen the gap in earnings. Shifting focus to the application layer, Audiera integrates AI roles into creation and interaction processes, with Kira and Ray able to generate content and converse with users. $BEAT is priced at 0.10253 USDT, down 4.6% in 24 hours. The key to this line is not technical showmanship but retention: whether the roles can enrich platform content and increase activity frequency. Whether humans come to try it once or are willing to return repeatedly determines if these interactions can become daily habits.