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The Democratic lead member of the U.S. Senate investigative subcommittee, Richard Blumenthal, has sent letters to Binance, Tether, World Liberty Financial (WLF), and the TRUMP coin issuer Fight Fight Fight LLC, requesting these four entities to submit investigation materials by January 4, 2027, warning that non-cooperation will face "further measures." The key is not the letter itself, but the timing: the new Congress will convene on January 3, 2027. If the Democrats control both the House and Senate, Blumenthal is expected to chair the investigative subcommittee, at which point he will have the authority to compel document production and subpoena witnesses. Currently, it is only a "voluntary cooperation" request, but the deadline is set for the day after the power transition, sending a clear signal: either proactively submit materials or wait for subpoenas. Binance: $1.7 billion, pardon, and USD1 investigation align three timelines around approximately $1.7 billion in Iran-related transfers, CZ's pardon by Trump, and Binance's deep cooperation with the Trump family stablecoin USD1. Reports indicate that about 1,500 Binance accounts were accessed by Iranian nationals over the past year, with a total of about $1.7 billion flowing to entities linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Houthi forces, and others; Binance denies this and claims the risk exposure has significantly decreased. In October 2025, Trump signed a pardon for CZ. Meanwhile, the vast majority of USD1 holdings are concentrated on Binance, Binanc The early morning plunge was brutal, $BTC dropped to 73,510, the lowest since August, with over 1 billion liquidations, longs held on through 90% of it. But the funding rate stubbornly didn’t turn negative, and Binance’s long-short ratio actually rose to 2.16; what’s being taken away is leverage, not positions.
$ETH fared even worse, liquidation volume exceeded that of Bitcoin, with a single whale losing 61.41 million in one trade; the long liquidation price was stuck at 2004, so weak that it didn’t even bother to struggle.
The A-share market closed at 1.48 trillion, shrinking by 175.2 billion. The coal and robotics sectors hit their daily limits, looking lively, but over 3,100 stocks declined. Volume is retreating, and the faster rotation feels more like exhaustion.
In the US market, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 4.21%, AMD surged 11%, but the Dow Jones fell, the S&P 500 dropped 2.68% last week, and the Nasdaq fell 3.37%. The chip stocks’ own rebound couldn’t lift the whole market.
Over at $SOL, the Lujiazui advertisement was taken down by the central bank before it even got hot, and the involved entities are under investigation. The regulatory noose has never loosened.Two ETH short positions: one secured profit, one already breakeven
Let's start with the results.
First position (previous tweet): entered at 2225.16, exited at 2193.43.
The take profit didn't reach my original plan of 2151 because ATR shrank from 9.15 to 3.97, so the 8x target shifted to around 2193. I exited when it hit that.
Second position: entered short today at 13:00 at 2136.86, now at 2097, floating profit +17.6%.
Stop loss has been moved from 2170 to 2134 (breakeven). Worst case is break even; the rest will wait for 2046 or a 1h bullish reversal.
Both entries follow the same logic: 1h bearish alignment, strong ADX, 15m pullback failure. $ETH $BTC's two waves of sell-offs are essentially the same set of pressures being repeatedly triggered, not a sudden "unexplained crash."
The early morning wave (Sunday night to Monday early morning): Only crypto markets were open over the weekend. The market first digested two risk messages — Nvidia CEO scandal/investigation and stalled US-Iran negotiations — risk appetite was directly shut down. Meanwhile, after the midterm elections, the Democrats control Congress, and funds worry about tighter crypto regulations (with hardliners like Warren gaining influence). Bitcoin was hammered down to about 73,700 (around the low since August), and Ethereum fell below 2100–2200. Leveraged longs were liquidated, with over about $1 billion cleared in 24 hours, including about $900 million longs; Ethereum liquidations were even harsher than Bitcoin’s, so it dropped more sharply.
Just now, another sell-off: This is a continuation of the same logic, not a new story. Spot ETFs saw large outflows last week (Bitcoin ETFs had weekly outflows on the order of billions of dollars), Binance’s hack aftermath is still ongoing, and institutional buying can’t catch up; once the price broke key levels, another round of chained long liquidations amplified the decline. On Gate, BTC is now about 73,800 (around -2.8%), ETH about 2086 (around -6.9%), with Ethereum still clearly weaker.
In short: Regulatory concerns + ETF withdrawals + weekend risk events → support broken → accelerated leveraged liquidations. There is also the US CPI tomorrow, so short-term volatility will remain high; don’t assume the one-sided move is over. The two waves of sell-offs are essentially the same set of pressures being repeatedly triggered, not a sudden "unexplained crash."
The wave in the early morning (Sunday night to Monday early morning): Only crypto markets were open over the weekend. The market first digested two risk messages — Nvidia CEO scandal/investigation and stalled US-Iran negotiations — risk appetite was directly shut down. At the same time, after the midterm elections, the Democrats took control of Congress, and funds worried about tighter crypto regulations (with hardliners like Warren gaining influence). Bitcoin was hammered down to about 73,700 (around the low since August), and Ethereum fell below 2100–2200. Leveraged longs were liquidated, with over about $1 billion liquidated in 24 hours, including about $900 million longs; Ethereum liquidations were even harsher than Bitcoin’s, so it dropped more sharply.
Just now, another wave of sell-off: It’s a continuation of the same logic, not a new story. Spot ETFs saw large outflows last week (Bitcoin ETFs had weekly outflows on the order of billions of dollars), Binance’s hack aftermath is still ongoing, and institutional buying can’t catch up; once the price broke key levels, another round of chained long liquidations amplified the decline. On Gate.io now, BTC is about 73,800 (around -2.8%), ETH about 2086 (around -6.9%), with Ethereum still clearly weaker.
In short: Regulatory concerns + ETF withdrawals + weekend risk events → breaking support → accelerated leveraged liquidations. There’s also the US CPI tomorrow, so short-term volatility will remain high; don’t assume the one-sided move is over. $$ETH #$BTC "Unable to accept a feasible compromise"—this phrase reminds me of my mindset when I used to follow regulatory news: always hoping for a one-step solution and treating any progress as if it were a near certainty. Honestly, the lesson is that expectations run ahead of reality, and I still thought I had good judgment.
McHenry said the industry missed opportunities and also admitted his own responsibility; although the bill passed the House, it got stuck in the Senate procedural vote. I think the biggest caution is to avoid treating regulatory progress as a certainty for contract trading. If even compromises can't be reached, the rules remain uncertain, yet ordinary people are easily swept up by the atmosphere of "getting clear soon."
I now follow two rules: first, distinguish whether policy news is just a statement, passing, or taking effect; second, don't loosen your position limits just because you think the policy direction is favorable. After all, watching the market outside of work means limited energy—survival comes first. Has anyone else been misled by the "regulation is about to land" hype? Would you be willing to share one rule you use to judge policy news?An established protocol was hacked for $665,000, and the announcement is as candid as a breakup text!
This morning, ACryptoS, a DeFi yield aggregator protocol launched in 2020, disclosed it was attacked: 5 chains, 77 vaults lost about $665,000. The vulnerability was in the vault contract's input validation; the attacker could mint most of the vault shares by depositing a tiny amount of tokens, then withdraw others' funds. Their documentation originally stated "No code vulnerabilities have been exploited since launch" — six years undefeated, brought down by an unfinished validation.
The team's response was rarer than the vulnerability: deposit function was disabled, withdrawals remained open; they offered the attacker a "10% bounty if funds are returned"; then directly announced — no resources left to maintain, project ceased operations, users urged to withdraw assets promptly.
No blame-shifting, no empty promises, no "please give us more time," as candid as a breakup text: I'm done, you leave, take your stuff, don't look back.
The surreal part is the order: many projects lock withdrawals and seek new funds to cover losses after hacks; this one opened the gates for users to leave first, then sat down to negotiate a "commission" with the hacker. A six-year-old protocol, survived bear markets, died over a line of validation and a sentence of truth. If you still have funds in small protocol vaults, check your positions tonight.
$ETH $BNB $BTC is now at 75,799, down only 0.19% in 24 hours, looking stable, but it has dropped nearly 6% cumulatively over the past three days, with the price grinding near the weekly low. Interestingly, the liquidation volume has actually shrunk, only about 60 million in 24 hours, down 70% from the previous day, indicating that leverage was already cleaned out by the recent declines; now it's not new funds holding on, but old positions being lifted.
Funding rates are so low they can be ignored, the long-short ratio is 58 to 42, and the fear and greed index is 26, showing a bearish sentiment but no one really dares to push prices down further. $ETH is weaker, down nearly 8% in three days, without even a decent rebound.
The A-share market closed with 1.4 trillion in turnover, coal, commercial aerospace, and CPO sectors taking turns leading, but over 3,100 stocks declined, volume is retreating, and the faster rotation feels more like exhaustion.
The US semiconductor index rebounded 4.21%, AMD surged 11%, but the Dow Jones fell for two consecutive days. The nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, which actually pushed up the probability of rate hikes. The chip stocks have their own excitement but can't drive the whole market.
Solana's Lujiazui advertisement was stopped by the central bank before it even got popular, and the involved units are under investigation. The regulatory gaps have never loosened.Quest is going to be gradually shut down, so let me pour some cold water first: this looks more like a business reset rather than a sudden surge in L1 demand. The Galxe team and brand will be merged into Gravity, focusing on L1 development and applications; ID and Passport will also be gradually closed, but the network will continue to operate as usual, and the G token remains unchanged.
I am bearish on the sentiment interpretation of this news for two reasons: the enthusiasm for completing tasks cannot be directly taken as evidence that users are willing to continuously use the chain; concentrating resources can adjust supply but cannot create demand for users. My speculation is that if the market counts organizational contraction directly as growth, then expectations might be running ahead of the business.
Of course, the bulls might also be right. If subsequent applications can keep users engaged even without task incentives, I will change my stance—that would indicate the transformation is effective. Are you bullish or bearish? Do you think shutting down Quest is offloading baggage, or does it make it harder for Gravity to prove demand? Share your reasons.A personnel announcement often explains a company's intentions better than a white paper. On November 9, Animoca Brands announced that co-founder and executive chairman Yat Siu will become CEO on December 1, 2026, while former group president Evan Auyang will step down and become a senior advisor to the board.
The key is in the wording: Yat Siu will take over daily operations, project development, and strategic execution. The fact that someone already sitting as executive chairman is taking these three responsibilities back means power is shifting from setting direction back to managing implementation.
Implementation falls into three lines: the personal AI agent platform Minds, institutional business including digital currency and investment products, and Moca Network and AIR, which handle identity authentication and authorization. These three are actually one chain—the agent needs a wallet and identity to operate, institutions need credentials to enter, and identity and authorization are exactly the layer where $MOCA resides.
The judgment is here: Animoca used to be more like a super LP in the crypto primary market, profiting from paper valuations; now the founder returning as CEO signals a shift from investing in projects to building products. Holding companies discount net assets, product companies give imagination premiums.
But don’t rush to see this as purely positive. Building products entails operational costs and risks of implementation failure, and Minds faces a fiercely competitive AI agent market. The first roadmap after taking office on December 1 is what’s truly worth watching.#NVIDIA launches independent investigation, management stability under scrutiny BTC and ETH spot ETFs see weekly net outflow exceeding $1.6 billion
Data to watch this week: BTC+ETH spot ETFs have a weekly net outflow exceeding $1.6 billion, with BTC outflow at $1.28 billion and ETH outflow at $365 million. BlackRock IBIT has had five consecutive days of withdrawals, while Fidelity is still making small purchases, indicating this is not retail panic but institutions readjusting risk exposure.
Mid-term essence: Macro interest rate expectations are tightening, tech stocks are retreating, and ETFs are prioritized for position cuts. This is not a crash signal but a risk appetite cleansing.
Corresponding strategy: Do not chase rebounds, keep base positions, and wait for two signals — ETF outflows stop and turn into net inflows, and BTC volume surges above key ranges.
+2.58K USDT
Open the position list and verify the take-profit and stop-loss levels of heavy holdings.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Signals are conflicting. $BTC plunged to 73,708 overnight, a new low since August. Of the 855 million in liquidations, longs accounted for 90%, yet some say the funding rate is still 0.0069%, while others say it has turned negative. The long-short ratio actually rose to 2.16. What’s being taken away is leverage, not positions. 73,000 is now a psychological line; if it can’t hold 70,000, that’s the next stop.
$ETH has been silent throughout, too weak even to bother with a rebound.
A-shares turnover was 1.49 trillion, shrinking by 177.1 billion compared to last Friday. The surge in coal and robotics hitting the daily limit looks lively, but volume is retreating. The faster the rotation, the more it feels like exhaustion.
The US semiconductor index rebounded 4.21%, AMD surged 11%, but the Dow Jones fell for two consecutive days, and 7 of the 11 S&P sectors closed in the red. The probability of a rate hike in December has pushed to 76%. The chip stocks have their own excitement but can’t drive the whole market.
On the $SOL side, the Lujiazui advertisement was taken down by the central bank before it even got popular, and the involved units are under investigation. The regulatory cracks have never loosened.#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 Did the $ETH 2000 mentioned a week ago come true?BNB has already fallen below the lowest point smashed out on the day it was hacked 10 days ago, 678.13.
On the morning of October 30, news broke that the exchange behind it was hacked for about $6.3 billion. On that day, BNB dropped from around 750 to a low of 678.13, closing at 699.78, a drop of about 6.7% in one day.
In the following 10 days, it actually didn’t fall much. From the close that day until now, it has dropped about 3.3%, while the largest mainstream market cap in the same period fell about 4.6%. The impact of the hack was basically fully reflected on that day.
What pushed it down today was the overall market. Between 5 a.m. and 6 a.m., it fell from around 697 straight down to 678.3, moving down with the entire market; between 3 p.m. and 4 p.m., it further dipped to 675, breaking below 678.13, currently around 676, still below that level.
On the contract side, the day after the hack, OKEx’s total contract positions actually surged to about $62.4 million, with some buyers stepping in to bottom-fish; since then, it has steadily withdrawn to about $44.18 million, down about 29%. Leverage is decreasing, so the upward push is weaker.
Today’s low of 675 is the lowest since September 2, when it was 674.7. This break below is not much related to the hack but rather because it couldn’t hold up along with the overall market. $BNB The overnight drop was brutal, $BTC plunged to 73,708, a new low since August, with 855 million liquidated, longs holding 90.2%. But the high fees didn't turn negative, and the long-short ratio actually rose to 2.16; what was taken away was leverage, not positions.
$ETH was even weaker, with ETF outflows for six consecutive weeks, another 365 million fled last week, and 80% of the liquidations were longs.
A-shares closed at 1.49 trillion, shrinking by 177.1 billion, with coal and robotics hitting daily limits, but over 3,100 stocks declined. Volume is retreating, and the faster rotation feels more like exhaustion.
The US semiconductor index rebounded 4.21%, AMD surged 11%, but the Dow Jones fell for two consecutive days, 7 of the 11 S&P sectors closed in the red. The stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls pushed the December rate hike probability to 76%. This rebound is a chip stock affair and can't lead the whole market.
Solana's Lujiazui advertisement was stopped by the central bank before it even got hot, which also said it will investigate the involved parties. The regulatory loopholes have never loosened.In the current Crypto market, the most distressed might not be BTC holders, but altcoin investors.
When BTC falls, many altcoins drop even faster.
This indicates that market funds are becoming cautious.
I believe that to judge the altcoin market, you can't just look at a sudden surge in a particular coin.
You should also observe:
1. Whether BTC has stopped its continuous decline
2. Whether ETH has started to outperform BTC
3. Whether altcoin trading volume has recovered
4. Whether the market rally is spreading from a few coins to more sectors
#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 Galxe Passport will be gradually shut down. What concerns me more is not the loss of a product, but who ultimately decides the "shelf life" of on-chain identity.
This time, Galxe is integrating its team and brand into Gravity, concentrating resources to promote its L1 development and applications. Services like Quest and ID will also be gradually closed; the Gravity network will continue to operate normally, and the G token will not be affected. Among the news, what I find hardest to let go of is Passport: I believe this serves as a reminder to users who rely on platform identity services that just because an identity can be verified, it doesn't mean the identity service will always be available.
When I usually look at such products, I tend to first ask: if you switch to another place, will you still be recognized? If an identity's use is highly dependent on the original platform, then when the platform changes direction, users may need to re-authenticate and rebuild trust. This is my speculation and does not mean existing credentials have already become invalid; the information does not clarify how subsequent handling will be done, so we cannot directly equate the two.
Therefore, I judge that this adjustment is more worth discussing in terms of the portability of identity services, rather than labeling the token as bullish or bearish. The chain can continue running, but services built around the chain will change platforms. If you have used Passport, what do you most want to be clarified before it closes: how to preserve credentials, whether other applications will continue to recognize them, or if there is a way to migrate?Last night's drop was harsher than expected, $BTC plunged directly to 73,708, a new low since August, with 855 million liquidated in 24 hours, and longs bore 90% of it. But strangely, the funding rate didn't turn negative, and Binance's long-short account ratio actually rose to 2.16. Those bottom-fishers haven't given up; what got taken out was leverage, not positions.
$ETH fell even harder, nearly 5% in 24 hours, with 358 million liquidated—more than Bitcoin. On the altcoin side, SOL dropped to 86, while PEPE was the only one in the Top 10 to stay in the green.
The A-share market closed at 1.49 trillion, shrinking by 177.1 billion compared to last Friday. Coal and robotics stocks hit the daily limit up, with Yushu Technology rising over 13%, but more than 3,100 stocks declined. The rotation was as fast as a fan.
The US semiconductor index rebounded 4.21%,
AMD surged 11%, but the Dow Jones fell for two consecutive days, and 7 of the 11 S&P sectors closed in the red. The stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls actually pushed the December rate hike probability to 76%. This rebound is just a tech stock affair; it can't carry the whole market.👀 $STAMP: THE CODE TELLS A BIGGER STORY.
A September GitHub commit introduced a STAMP-paired Meteora launchpad, potentially connecting future token launches with STAMP liquidity.
Weak prices alone don’t tell us whether this infrastructure will succeed.
The next signal to watch: real launches, liquidity growth and active users.
#STAMP #SolanaBitcoin continues to decline, and the market is in a state of panic, but on-chain data shows an unusual divergence: long-term holders are starting to loosen their positions, while short-term holders remain relatively calm.
Data from November 5 shows that long-term holders (LTH) transferred realized losses of $139 million to exchanges, indicating that some long-held coins can no longer withstand the current market pressure. However, short-term holders (STH) have not simultaneously experienced panic selling of the same scale. After sufficient turnover in the previous period, the cost basis for short-term holders has shifted down to the 75K–76K range, with the current price just around their breakeven point.
Another key signal: although the overall realized loss in the market remains high, the rate of loss expansion has not accelerated. This signals that panic does exist now, but the momentum of panic spreading is weakening. I tend to believe that BTC is currently in the early stage of a bull market, undergoing a painful period of position restructuring.
It is important to rationally distinguish two points: realized loss chips transferred to exchanges do not equal complete liquidation; a slowdown in loss growth does not mean the bottom has been reached. The core factor determining the future market trend is not which group of holders cracks first and cuts losses, but whether the market can sustain effective capital absorption after panic chips are gradually cleared.
Bottoms are never born amid widespread cheers; they often complete position turnover quietly at the most fragile moments of market confidence.
Bull markets rely on market confidence, but all solid confidence must ultimately be rooted in real on-chain behavior and capital competition.💪$BTC #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ SanDisk SNDK 1-for-8 stock split is happening on the 20th🔥$SNDK
Current price 800+, after the split it will be just over 100, market cap remains unchanged.
Spot holders are basically unaffected, just hold tight with peace of mind✅
The key is for contract traders! The platform will reset all take-profit and stop-loss orders, high-risk leveraged positions face liquidation risk.
There will also be a brief trading halt during the adjustment period, no room for operations, those holding positions must check their positions in advance to avoid silent losses👀
#美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% 49 to 50, let me pour some cold water first: According to this news, the CLARITY Act is stuck in a procedural vote in the Senate, so it cannot be simply understood as "just a little short, the positive outcome is imminent." I am more worried that the market might interpret the close vote count as the regulatory implementation being near. McHenry criticized the industry for not accepting feasible compromises but also admitted his own responsibility; the bill had previously passed the House, but after the election, the change in congressional control adds more uncertainty to the outlook.
I am cautious for two reasons. First, the procedural hurdle has not been cleared, so the controversy has not yet transformed into enforceable rules; a small vote difference does not mean the remaining resistance is small. Second, the "industry's unwillingness to compromise" exposes an issue of interest coordination, which cannot be solved by simply supporting crypto. If all parties still cannot agree on the boundaries of compromise, then in my view, being close to passing could also mean further delays. For businesses relying on compliance expectations, this is more critical than a temporary cooling of sentiment.
But I also admit that the bulls might be right: the close vote count at least leaves room for re-coordination. If specific terms acceptable to key parties emerge later and the legislative process is pushed forward again, I will retract some of my pessimism. My habit is to first see how the compromise is reflected in the text, then see how the market tells the story, and not rush to price in the "just a little short."After reading, I noted three things, first highlighting the sentence "This adjustment does not involve changes to the G token": I think this is the easiest to be misread as a reassurance, but the token not changing does not mean the business environment it operates in hasn't changed.
1. My judgment is that $G remaining unchanged is neutral information and cannot be directly taken as a positive sign of transformation. Galxe is integrating the team and brand into Gravity, concentrating resources to develop Gravity L1, and services like Quest, ID, Passport will gradually shut down, while the Gravity network continues to operate normally. These changes cannot be overshadowed by the phrase "token unchanged."
2. I want to distinguish between "the network operating as usual" and "why users continue to use it." If the original services close and users don't find new reasons to stay, then the network running normally doesn't necessarily mean demand naturally continues; this is my speculation, not a result that has already happened.
3. I will shift my observation checklist from "whether the token changes" to "whether there are applications that can retain users." The reason is simple: concentrating resources shows where the team plans to go, but it doesn't yet prove users are willing to follow. Overlooking this step easily leads to mistaking plans for achievements.
I will first separate "unchanged" and "improved" in my notes; what would you add as a fourth point, and which types of Gravity applications would you look at to judge if users have stayed?#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？
This CPI report can no longer change the December rate hike.
October nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, nearly three times the expected 60,000, unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, and average hourly earnings rose 3.1% year-over-year. On CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25bp rate hike in December jumped from 66.9% to 76.8%, now approaching 78%. In the September dot plot, 16 of 18 officials expected another rate hike within the year, and at the October meeting, two voting members already voted in favor of a hike. Employment, inflation, and officials' statements all point in the same direction; a 0.2% month-over-month reading cannot be reversed — even Citibank, which gave the coldest forecast of +0.19%, wrote in its report that "it will not change the December rate hike expectation." So the real point of contention is 2027. Interest rate futures now imply at least 40bp more hikes by next September. Core CPI landing at 0.19% gives the market some relief; if it exceeds 0.3%, the "higher for longer" repricing will hit first tech stocks and crypto assets, which have no cash flow and rely on discount rates. Moreover, the plunge in oil prices won't save this data. Last week, Brent fell more than 16%, the largest weekly drop since 2020, but that was November pricing. October CPI statistics are based on October average prices, and the September gasoline month-over-month +9.1% base is still weighing on it. The energy drag dividend will only show when November data is released in December — by then, the meeting will have already taken place.The Democratic Party just took Congress, and their first move is aimed at the crypto circle! A cluster of negative news, don't rush to call the bottom 😤
Non-farm payrolls at 165,000, expected 65,000, unemployment rate 4.1%, hourly wages also exceeded expectations. Traders have turned to betting on a December rate hike with an 85% probability, US Treasury yield at 4.85%. This is the current squeeze, crypto takes the first hit 💧
Blumenthal named Binance, Tether, WLFI, and the Trump coin issuer, requiring "voluntary submission of materials" by January 4, 2027. The new Congress takes office on January 3, the timing is unpleasant, but the letter is not a lawsuit, more like a sword hanging overhead, suppressing sentiment in the medium term 🔪
The bottom is seen in three levels: 73k–74k is being contested, a spike at 73,708, losing 75k; short-term cost is 75k–76k, breaking below causes panic. Then the psychological level at 70k, options max pain at 76k, nominal over 10 billion, hedging will amplify volatility. Some extreme tail estimates at 30k, not a baseline, but don't mistake cheap for guaranteed 📉
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
Leverage is being cleared harshly: 855 million liquidated in 24 hours, 140,000 accounts liquidated, 90.2% long positions, funding rate turned negative, fear and greed index 26–29, less room for a stampede. But ETF outflows reached 1.282 billion in a single week, the largest since June, turning negative year-to-date; big wallets absorb, retail sends to exchanges, opposite directions 😵
The bottom is a process, not a price. Watch three signals: US Treasury yield trend falling, ETF weekly flow turning positive, 73k volume spot support. If not lit, treat the rebound as just a rebound 👀#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $BTC is now at 75,799, down only 0.19% in 24 hours, looking stable, but it has dropped nearly 6 points cumulatively over the past three days, with the price grinding near the weekly low. Interestingly, the liquidation volume has actually shrunk, only about 60 million in 24 hours, down 70% from the previous day, indicating that leverage was already cleaned out by the recent declines; it's not new funds holding the position, but old positions being lifted.
Funding rates are so low they can be ignored, the long-short ratio is 58 to 42, and the fear and greed index is 26, showing a bearish sentiment but no one really dares to push it down further. $ETH is weaker, down nearly 8 points in three days, without even a decent rebound.
The A-share market traded 1.01 trillion in half a day, shrinking by 111.6 billion compared to last Friday. Coal, PCB, and robotics sectors are taking turns pulling up, but volume is retreating, and the faster rotation feels more like consumption.
US stocks: the semiconductor sector rose 4.21%, AMD surged 11%, but the Dow Jones has fallen for two consecutive days, and 7 of the 11 S&P sectors closed in the red. This rebound is mainly driven by chip stocks themselves and cannot lead the entire market.Usually ETH stays flat with no discussion, and the group chat is as quiet as an office on Monday morning. Today suddenly everyone is talking about the trading volume soaring 5 times.
My first reaction was that the price went up? But then I saw it dropped 6.59%.
This is very interesting: no one adds positions when it rises, but everyone rushes to trade when it falls. The 24-hour volume of $7.981 billion is all spent on the way down. To put it bluntly, the excitement isn't about the market, it's about fleeing. I'm the same, my hands move faster than my brain when it drops. Binance ETH/USDT perpetual contract trading volume has expanded to 5 times the original within ten minutes. Behind the numbers, there is a direction: the price is falling.
Let's start with the facts. In the past 24 hours, this contract traded $7.981 billion, with a decline of 6.59%. Nearly $8 billion changed hands on the same trading pair in one day, resulting in a price drop. Volume is the process, the decline is the result; looking at them together provides more information.
There are usually two explanations for a volume-driven price drop. One is active selling, where holders sell regardless of price, and buyers absorb at low levels. The other is passive selling, where leveraged positions hit liquidation thresholds, and the exchange liquidates for them, with the liquidation itself generating volume. The charts look similar, but the follow-up is completely different: the former involves someone repricing, which may drag on for days; the latter ends immediately after a single spike. Just by volume and decline, you can't tell which it is.
One thing is certain: volume suddenly expands but the price does not rebound, indicating that the buying side is passively absorbing, not actively attacking. The patience of the absorbing side is limited; if the price continues to fall, buyers will retreat. It's too early to talk about a bottom here; the real bottom often first grinds people down with shrinking volume and a slow decline, then pulls back with a single volume-driven long bullish candle.
What’s worth pondering is that $7.981 billion. Binance contracts rank first globally in comprehensive rankings, and the most concentrated liquidity is here. In such concentrated turnover, who is handing over chips, and who is receiving? If it were institutional portfolio adjustment, ten minutes wouldn't be enough.#SoftBank's heavy bet on OpenAI, can the Q2 earnings report deliver impressive results?
Tomorrow SoftBank will release its Q2 earnings report. The U.S. stock market fell 6% in pre-market trading, seemingly telling us that the market is not buying into its $50 billion investment in Malaysia.
Recently, SoftBank has been declining, affected by the AI sell-off. Its stock price has dropped 59% from the June high and fell about 3% intraday.
What’s more troublesome is that OpenAI’s fundraising target was lowered from $30 billion, with only $11 billion raised in the first round, and its valuation dropped from the initially sought $1.5 trillion to $1.25 trillion; SB Energy, deeply tied to OpenAI, with a $50 billion valuation and a planned $5 billion IPO, was also forced to delay.
After the Democrats won the midterm elections, many places in the U.S. began restricting AI data centers, further hitting market confidence.
Therefore, SoftBank’s reported plan to invest $50 billion in Malaysia may not be expansion, but more like finding a second base for AI computing power after U.S. regulatory tightening.
If you hold SoftBank stock, prepare to make some gains around the earnings release. I think what really matters in tomorrow’s report is not how much profit is on the books, but whether SoftBank still has enough cash and financing ability to continue this AI gamble.4%, but as soon as the Taiwan stock market opened today, Hon Hai, which assembles AI servers for Nvidia, surged nearly 6%🧐 Hon Hai recovered all the losses from Friday within half an hour of opening, and the entire Taiwan stock market rose by more than 1,200 points. Outside, everyone is shouting that Asia will be crushed by Huang on Monday, but Nvidia itself is falling while its Taiwanese supply chain is rising. Just look at the timing to understand. The Taiwan stock market closed at 1:30 PM on Friday, that night the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 4.2%, and TSMC ADR rose 6.3%, so the Taiwan stock market is making up for that night today. Huang admitted his mistake and the board initiated an investigation, all happening at 4 AM today, and Nvidia’s main stock hasn’t traded for even a minute yet. OKEx perpetual contracts are now around 180, the funding rate has turned negative, so shorts are paying longs. The US stock market opens at 10:30 PM tonight; if Nvidia really opens 4% lower, how many of these 1,200 points in the Taiwan stock market will remain tomorrow... The overnight plunge was harsher than expected, with $BTC dropping to 73,508, causing the entire market to lose over 850 million. Long positions held 90% of the losses. But the funding rate and long-short ratio are conflicting; some say the funding rate is still at 0.0028%, others say it has turned negative, while the long-short account ratio rose to 2.86. Those bottom-fishing haven't pulled out; what's being washed out is leverage, not positions.
On the $SOL side, it's even more direct. The Lujiazui ads went out but didn't gain traction before the central bank and multiple departments jointly halted offline activities, also stating they will investigate the involved entities. Regulatory gaps have never loosened.
The A-share market saw 1.01 trillion in half a day, with coal, commercial aerospace, and CPO rotating the gains, but the volume shrank by 111.6 billion compared to last Friday. The rotation is as fast as a fan; chasing highs is easy to get burned.
The US stock market's semiconductor sector rebounded 4.21%, AMD surged 11%, but the Dow Jones fell, and 7 of the 11 S&P sectors closed in the red. This rebound hasn't spread; it looks more like a breather after a sharp drop. $ETH stayed silent throughout, clearly weak.The rebound after the liquidation wave early this morning didn't hold: $BTC once pulled back above 75,500, but now it's back around 74,140, down 2.25% in 24h; $ETH is weaker at 2,105, down 5.8% in 24h, not far from the 2,060 spike low.
The funding side isn't helping either. Farside data shows that last week (11/2-11/6), US spot BTC ETFs had a net outflow of about $1.28 billion, with IBIT alone outflowing about $1.21 billion, and another $412 million outflow on Friday alone.
On the contracts side, Binance ETH perpetual funding rate is still negative at -0.0033%, BTC at 0.01%. CoinGlass shows that liquidations in the last 4 hours are only a bit over $20 million, meaning leverage has basically been cleaned out once.
My view is that the main pressure on price now comes from spot and ETF sell orders, not leverage. Before the US CPI release on Tuesday, rebounds near 75,500 will likely still face selling pressure. Don't mistake a technical rebound after liquidation for a reversal.
$BTC $ETHFrom the 7-day liquidation chart, over 90% of the long positions have been cleared out, and the remaining longs are mostly low-leverage. Continuing to drop further doesn't make much sense. Even if the price falls below 720k again, it would only liquidate about 100 to 200 million USD, and this doesn't account for retail investors increasing their margin at that time. With increased margin, the liquidation price would definitely be further away, so it's hard for the whales to harvest the remaining longs who are barely holding on. The liquidations mainly target those who like to play with high leverage. At this point, it should be preparing to rise to cut short positions. If the price rises back to 820k, it will liquidate 2 billion USD worth of shorts. So, do you think Bitcoin will continue to fall or will it pump up to harvest shorts? Historically, each cycle of this kind of market basically involves a double liquidation. The timing might be delayed, but it definitely won't be absent. It will give you the feeling that it can't rise, slowly dragging along before suddenly pumping up to finish liquidating the shorts. So, at this stage, it's really hard.Transaction fees are almost zero, which is more worth watching than the price itself. $BTC fees have been squeezed down to 0.001%, $ETH only 0.0016%—bulls no longer pay to hold positions, nor are they willing to pay for conviction. This is the quietest and most honest signal of this round of deleveraging: those holding positions have finally let go. But don’t misread "liquidation completed" as "bottom confirmed." Clearing liquidation positions only means the price is no longer forcibly suppressed by sell pressure; it does not generate any buying demand. The real direction must wait for the first wave of genuine spot buying after liquidation ends to answer. This is the layer most easily underestimated by the crowd right now: the market treats "leverage clearing" as a positive, but in fact, it just clears the stage; the actors have yet to appear. The technical side also matches this "no comment" state. The 4-hour chart shows volume contraction and sideways movement between 75800 and 76200; liquidity is thin over the weekend, so direction is undiscussable. What’s more worth remembering is the daily MA200: $BTC is around 73231, $ETH around 2156, just a few points away from the current price. This is not a prediction but an extreme scenario test line that must be drawn in the mind in advance—if it really reaches there, it will be a true test of bullish conviction. Next week’s macro calendar won’t be quiet. The US military expands blockade on Iran, tightening oil prices and inflation pressure; SoftBank releases earnings, and its heavy exposure to OpenAI will be repriced; the CLARITY Act and 401(k) review advance simultaneously. Any of these variablesSeeing income decline, many people's first reaction is negative. In the midday news, Vitalik's "ETH value storage theory" was questioned, with opponents emphasizing that L1 fee revenue cannot be sacrificed. This sounds solid, but I feel that using fees as the sole metric can also lead to a biased view.
Thinking from the opposite perspective, I believe the real question should be whether value can flow back, not whether fees are high enough. One reason: if high fees keep users out, then maintaining a single transaction fee might still lose long-term demand. This is my speculation; cheap does not necessarily mean prosperity.
Another reason: if usage grows but does not convert into sustained demand for $ETH, then "value storage" cannot be established by slogans alone. My judgment is that both sides need to clearly explain where the demand comes from; drawing conclusions based solely on income is premature.
I welcome those with opposing views to debate: do you value L1 fee revenue more, or the actual necessity of holding ETH? Why?NVDA perpetual futures first dropped to about 176, approximately 5.5% lower than Friday's close at 186.64, observing without chasing.
Noticed: The board initiated an independent investigation into Jensen Huang on Sunday, and he himself admitted to being unfaithful to his wife.
On Friday, Nasdaq closed at 186.64, OKX's NVDA-USDT-SWAP is currently around 176.35, with a 24-hour high of 188.19 and low of 175.93.
At 4 AM this morning, the 1H candle dropped directly from 187.86 to 180.62.
I think: This is a trust discount, not an immediate change of leadership.
The board says there is currently no reason to believe confidential information was leaked, Huang continues as CEO, the cash market will likely open lower tonight, but don't treat the pre-market perpetual futures as the final outcome.
What I will do: First see if it can hold above 180; if it breaks below the intraday low of 175.93, next target is 170; do not catch the falling knife, nor chase the rebound.
Do you think the open will directly break below 175, or will it first rebound to 180 to test sentiment?
$NVDA $AMD $TSM
#Tech stocks rebound after US stock market plunge, Nasdaq weekly still down about 3.4% #US October CPI preview: Will December rate hike expectations change?A full-scale crash, follow the trend to trade $ZEC
NU7 upgrade was officially activated on November 6, reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, which is a substantial positive. However, ZEC reacted by falling from above 1300 to around 1260, dropping about 4% in 24 hours, with long positions liquidated for about 1 million USD — positive news turned negative upon realization.
The technical structure is also deteriorating. The daily chart's center of gravity continues to shift downward, price operates below the Bollinger Bands middle line, and 1290 has turned from support into strong resistance; the 4-hour chart shows a "sideways consolidation after a decline," a typical continuation pattern rather than a bottom formation. The rebound volume shrinks and highs progressively lower, indicating a lack of buying support.
More critically, the crowding of long positions. Price has steadily declined from 1695, open interest has not decreased but increased, and funding rates remain positive, meaning retail investors are continuously bottom-fishing with leverage. Under this structure, every time the price breaks a support, it triggers new long stop losses, creating negative feedback.
Adding the macro background: BTC has broken below the key 200-day EMA near 76,000 USD, the crypto market overall is in a bearish pattern of "news suppression + ETF capital outflow + fear zone," and altcoins lack the foundation for independent strength.
Strategy: Enter when the rebound faces pressure in the 1235–1249 resistance zone, target first 1200–1160, stop loss at 1300 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% BTC is really heading straight for 2000, and the bulls are still catching flying knives halfway up the mountain?
Just switched back to OKX for a glance, BTC directly dropped to 2105, a single-day plunge of 5.70%! ETH couldn't hold either, pressed down to 74,111, down 2.27%. Look at the row of altcoins below, SOL fell below 87, XRP dropped over 5.5%, it's basically a total rout.
This trend really confirms what I said before. Now it's just the last twitch away from 2000.
The funniest thing is, there are still brothers in the group asking "Is it time to bottom-fish now?" Everyone, tomorrow night (November 10) the US October CPI blind box is about to open! The non-farm payroll data just pushed the December rate hike probability to nearly 80%, institutional funds (ETFs) already bailed out last week. This market clearly shows funds are frantically hedging before the CPI release.
This -5.7% guillotine cut by BTC smashed many people's "support faith" directly. I won't teach you how to trade, I only know that now all the bulls are squeezed below, and if tomorrow night's CPI surprises again, triggering a chain stampede, don't even talk about 2000, it’s uncertain if it can even stop at 1800.
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC $OKB fell below 100, this is not due to technical weakness, the core reason is that giants like Apple and Tesla voted against it.
The tokenized US stock platform cooperated by OKX and ICE now has 67 issuers opposing it, including all seven major tech giants. Originally, nearly 90% of the 62 candidate stocks refused to be listed, and the remaining ones without objections are basically crypto-related companies.
I used to be optimistic about this sector, thinking that getting regulatory approval would be a positive, but the collective resistance from the giants directly killed the story of opening up US stock traffic, and the valuation logic was directly revised downward.
You can also see from the market that OKB is now at a 30-day low, down more than 10% in 7 days, with several short-term moving averages all pressing from above. Interestingly, the contract funding rate is still positive, indicating that there are still bulls holding on hard; the stop-loss orders of these people can easily become the driving force for further declines.
My thinking: 100 is just a psychological barrier; once broken, don’t look for support around this area. The first observation point is the 200-day moving average at 96.24. You can reduce your position if it rebounds to around 105, with a stop loss at 94.5. This drop is event-driven, so don’t rush to bottom-fish hoping for an oversold rebound. #OKX、ICE与Trade.xyz联手，推动永续合约进入美国合规市场 #Oklo推进核电项目建设，商业化进展受关注
AI data center energy demand brings new opportunities
The development of the AI industry requires not only chips and computing power but also a large and stable power supply.
This is why I have recently been paying attention to Oklo.
Oklo is developing advanced fission nuclear power technology, aiming to provide stable energy to data centers, industrial facilities, and more through small, modular nuclear power plants.
In the Q3 business update released on November 6, the company disclosed the latest construction progress of the Aurora-ID project: site excavation has been completed, safety-related rebar construction is underway, and the main structural steel installation has also begun.
Additionally, the company’s Ohio power park project related to Meta is progressing, with a planned capacity of up to 1.2GW.
However, nuclear power projects require complex approvals, fuel supply, equipment manufacturing, and safety verification from construction to actual commercial operation.
I believe that to judge Oklo’s commercialization progress, one should not only look at the power demand driven by AI but also observe:
1. Whether the first nuclear power project can be completed as planned.
2. Whether regulatory approvals and fuel supply proceed smoothly.
3. Whether potential customer collaborations can convert into actual power supply contracts and revenue.
AI energy demand is a long-term opportunity, but nuclear power commercialization still needs time to be validated.
What do you think will be the most needed energy solution for future AI data centers: nuclear power, natural gas, or a combination of renewable energy and storage? The early morning spike hit 73,500, with over 800 million liquidated in four hours, and longs bore 740 million. But $BTC funding rates stubbornly didn’t turn negative; the long-short ratio even rose to 2.86. Those bottom-fishing haven’t capitulated; it’s the leveraged positions getting flushed, not the actual holdings.
$ETH was even weaker, with 358 million liquidated—more than Bitcoin. Its funding rate directly turned negative. Spot ETFs have seen outflows for six consecutive weeks, with another 365 million leaving last week [reference:2][reference:3]. $SOL also fell below 88, with the daily RSI down to just 26.6, showing very little strength.
The A-share market surpassed one trillion in half a day, commercial aerospace stocks hit limit-up waves, with Yushu Technology up over 13%, but volume shrank by more than 100 billion. Rotation is as fast as a fan; chasing highs is easy to get burned.
The US market’s semiconductor index rebounded 4.2%, AMD rose 11%, which is satisfying to see, but last week the semiconductor index dropped 12%, more like a hard fall catching a breath. US senators are again pressing Binance and Tether to submit documents; the regulatory pressure has never eased. There’s a trapped position pressure above 75,700; if it can’t reclaim that level, it’s just a rebound.BTC at $74,300, do you still dare to buy the dip?
ETF outflows reached $1.28 billion in one week, over $1 billion in long positions liquidated, five consecutive weekly red candles — everyone is shouting "the bear is here." But the 73,000 level, is it the institutional cost floor or the next meat grinder?
First, look at the surface: the drop looks ugly, but it hasn’t crashed yet.
Down 1.5%-2% in 24 hours, bottoming at 73,500. Daily candles are consecutively bearish, the fifth red weekly candle, and the 50-week moving average has been broken. RSI is between 35-40, close to oversold but not extreme. The group chat is full of "it's over" and "back to 60k" voices.
73,000-73,500 is where the 200-day moving average, recent lows, and corporate holding cost lines converge. The price didn’t get here by chance.
First thing: ETFs are running, and it’s institutions running.
Last week, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.28 billion, one of the worst recent levels. BlackRock’s IBIT led the decline.
Think about this sentence: it’s not retail selling, it’s institutions withdrawing.
In the past 48 hours, crypto market liquidations exceeded $1 billion, 90% of which were longs. Single large orders near $50 million. Leveraged longs have been completely washed out.
What’s negative feedback? ETF outflows crush the price, the price crushes longs, liquidations crush the price again.
Second thing: macro is the biggest blade, CPI is just ahead.
Federal funds rate at 3.75%-4.00%, no change expected in October, but some are betting on a rate hike. The market prices in a significant chance of a December hike. The 10-year US Treasury yield is 4.8%-5%, and the dollar is relatively strong.
In plain language: risk-free returns are nearly 5%, so why hold a zero-yield BTC that drops 2% a day?
The November 10 CPI is the biggest risk this week. Core CPI is stuck around 3.7%. If higher than expected, it reinforces "higher for longer," and risk assets continue to get hit; if lower, there might be some relief.
Third thing: technically bearish, but 73k has defense.
Daily: consecutive bearish candles, descending channel, series of lower highs and lows.
4H/1H: short-term oversold, possible rebound, but daily structure hasn’t turned bullish.
Key levels are clear:
Strong support: 73,000-73,500 (200-day MA + previous low + institutional cost)
Secondary support: 74,000-74,500, 75,000 psychological level
Near-term resistance: 75,500-76,000 (previous support turned resistance)
Stronger resistance: 77,000-78,000, 80,000-82,000
Breaking below 73k with volume leads next to 70k-68k; reclaiming 76k is needed for short-term rebound qualification.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On the bullish side:
73k triple support shows signs of defense
RSI near oversold, 4H shows rebound demand
Long-term holders and corporate cost lines here
Post-halving cycle, long-term fundamentals intact
On the bearish side:
ETF outflows of $1.28 billion in a week, institutional demand cooling
$1 billion liquidations, 90% longs, leverage just cleaned out
Fed hawkish bias, high US Treasury yields suppressing
CPI risk not yet realized, tech stocks weakening spillover
Fear & Greed index around 29, panic not bottomed yet
Trading strategy
Short-term players:
If rebound meets resistance at 75,500-76,000 with weak volume, try light short positions, stop loss above 76,500, targets 74,000/73,500. If breaks 73,500 with volume, follow short to 72k-70k, stop loss above 74k. Small long positions at 73,500-74,000 for quick in-and-out trades, stop loss 72,800, target 75,500. Avoid heavy overnight positions, avoid high leverage betting on CPI.
Swing traders:
Wait for one of two signals: hold 73k and reclaim 76k, turning neutral to bullish, target 80k-82k; or break 73k decisively with weekly confirmation, target 68k-70k, wait for stabilization before entering.
Long-term holders:
Spot holdings are fine, dollar-cost averaging can continue, but avoid leverage on contracts. 74k is not a signal to go all in, but a signal to check your position size. Don’t rush to "buy the big bottom" if it breaks 73k; wait for weekly stabilization.
BTC now is like the August 2024 wave —
Everyone thought "it’s going back to 50k," but after the shakeout, it still rose as it should.
But you have to survive until that day.
In bull markets, you make money by holding; in bear markets, you make money by not catching falling knives.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #ASTS推进手机直连卫星服务，商业化进展待披露
#ASTS推进手机直连卫星服务，商业化进程能否突破？
AST SpaceMobile is attempting to enable ordinary smartphones to connect directly to low-earth orbit satellites, allowing communication even in areas without ground base station coverage.
If the technology achieves large-scale implementation, it will open new market opportunities for the global mobile communications industry.
According to previously released company information, AST has established partnerships with more than 60 mobile network operators worldwide, covering over 3 billion users, with contract and government project revenue reserves of about $1.3 billion.
Recently, the company also announced the Blacklift reusable launch vehicle program, aiming for its first flight in 2028, further reducing the cost pressure of future satellite deployments.
In this Q3 financial report, I am more focused on three aspects:
1. Satellite deployment: the production, launch, and testing progress of BlueBird satellites.
2. Commercial cooperation: whether partnerships can gradually convert into actual service revenue.
3. Capital investment: satellite manufacturing and launches require substantial funds, so financing capability is equally important.
Technological breakthroughs are only the first step; what truly determines AST's commercial value is whether it can establish stable services and continuous revenue.
If ordinary phones can directly connect to satellites in the future, do you think this will become an important supplement to traditional communication networks or change the entire communications industry? $BTC The US stock market hasn't opened yet today, so the only candlestick we can review is Friday's.
The most eye-catching this time isn't the $AMD surge of 11%, but Broadcom AVGO. The chip sector collectively rebounded, with Micron up 5.1%, TSMC up 6.3%, Intel up 7.7%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising 4.21%. Only Broadcom showed weakness, hitting an intraday low of $289.77 and closing up just 0.74%. The 10.4% gap down from Thursday remains unfilled.
This indicates that sector confidence hasn't truly returned yet; it currently looks more like an oversold rebound, with funds still picking targets for short-term trades.
Next, the focus is on Nvidia's earnings report on November 17. Before that, there's no rush to chase highs; treat the rebound as a repair.
Looking at BTC now, it has fallen back to $74,198, down 2.19%, clearly not keeping pace with the chip sector's rebound in the US stock market.
Currently, continuing to stay on the sidelines, keeping positions unchanged, and waiting for the earnings reports to land before deciding the next step!#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ A rocket-building company has recently taken an interesting direction with its wallet.
SpaceX plans to invest $24 billion in Texas to build an AI supercomputer, with a gas power plant included in the project. In the same message, there's an even more thought-provoking statement: this amount is about 17 times the value of SpaceX's Bitcoin holdings.
Working backward, $24 billion divided by 17 means the Bitcoin holdings are just over $1.4 billion. It's not a small amount, but compared to $24 billion, it becomes a mere fraction.
This is not a bearish signal. It indicates the prioritization of capital expenditure: in the management's view, machines that can generate their own power and compute independently are more worthy of investment than $BTC sitting idle in cold wallets. Including a gas power plant in the project itself shows the attitude—the bottleneck isn't chips, it's electricity.
This also explains why the AI narrative can draw away funds. Corporate cash flow is limited; investing in supercomputers means less investment elsewhere. One of the biggest bullish stories for $BTC in recent years has been public companies treating it as a reserve asset, but the growth of that story is now being taken over by computing power.
The $1.4 billion holding hasn't moved; the 17x multiple is just a calculated figure and doesn't represent any portfolio adjustment. What's worth considering is: if more companies prioritize investing cash into computing power, who will be the incremental buyer of corporate coin holdings in the next cycle? $ETH and $SOL are also competing for the same budget.When it was at 1200 USD, the market was still competing to call the bottom, but now SanDisk has fallen to around 822. The once hottest AI storage sector has now become the direction where funds are concentrated in retreat, and this change is worth being cautious about! This time, with the US stock market under pressure, I believe we cannot only look at the technical side; the political factors behind it are equally critical. The core issue lies in the midterm elections! The market is currently worried that Trump will lose control of both houses of Congress. Once the Democrats gain an advantage in the midterm elections, regulatory and restrictive measures targeting the AI industry may gradually increase. The Democrats are also expected to release more policy signals restricting AI development in the near future. What does this mean? The market's growth expectations for the AI industry were already very high. If the policy environment changes in the future, corporate investment, capital expenditure, and the valuation of the entire AI industry chain may all be re-evaluated. Looking back at SanDisk, the AI concept previously drove the stock price to rise sharply, and funds and performance expectations have long been reflected in the price. Now institutions are starting to reduce holdings, market sentiment is weakening, and valuation reversion will naturally not be gentle. Personally, I am currently bearish on US stocks, especially the high-level AI and semiconductor sectors. Don't just focus on how much it has fallen; pay more attention to whether policy expectations and institutional funds will continue to deteriorate. If policy risks continue to ferment and funds are reluctant to return, this round of adjustment in the US stock market may have further follow-up. The most important thing now is not to rush to bottom-fish but to first protect the principal and wait for a real stabilization signal to appear! This time, I would rather earn a little less than be caught in an unclear trend BTC is now the top trending search on CoinGecko, with the heat coming from the continuous decline. As of 15:03 Beijing time on November 9, OKX spot price is 74155 USDT, down about 2.2% from the 24h opening price, with a 24h range of 73500–76200; CoinGecko shows a 24h trading volume of about 22.8 billion USD, down about 5.1% over 7 days.
News: It dropped to the lowest level since August late Sunday night. CoinGlass shows over 1 billion USD liquidations across the network in 24h, about 90% of which are long positions; last week, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of 1.28 billion USD, the largest since the end of June; the weekly candle has closed five consecutive bearish candles, breaking below the 50-week moving average.
My view: This round is a combination of post-election regulatory expectations, ETF position reductions, and rising interest rate expectations. Liquidations have cleared some leverage, but OKX perpetual funding rates remain slightly positive, so the bulls have not given up yet. I am more focused on whether the ETF can stop outflows this week and whether the 50-week moving average can be reclaimed. Until it is reclaimed, any rebound should be seen as a rebound, and there is no rush to bottom-fish.
$BTC #NebiusAI云业务高速增长迎来财报检验 This week, the AI sector welcomes Neocloud's earnings report. Over the past 20 trading days, CRWV and NBIS have both dropped more than 40%, but the earnings reports of these two companies are not expected to look bad.
Although CRWV and NBIS both rely on renting computing power as their main business, their models differ. CRWV finances about 60% of its capital expenditure through borrowing; the more it borrows, the higher the interest rate. NBIS mainly relies on prepayments and equity financing, so its interest costs are low, with the only downside being equity dilution. Therefore, despite NBIS's revenue scale being smaller than CRWV's, its market value is nearly $10 billion higher, as the market is more willing to assign NBIS a higher valuation.
As of Q2, NBIS holds about $8 billion in cash, and Meta has provided a $15 billion computing power backstop agreement. Customer prepayments cover 60% of expenses. Compared to CRWV, NBIS has the advantage of lower future data center construction costs. NBIS's data centers are mainly in Europe and New Jersey, with no new plans in Texas, whereas CRWV's new data centers include Texas, which will increase costs.
Overall, NBIS's financing costs are lower than CRWV's, and future data center construction costs are lower. The market expects NBIS's total ARR guidance for 2026 to be in the $7-9 billion median or upper range. If it reaches $8 billion, this earnings report could very likely remove NBIS from concerns about new cloud financing. A $150 price can be used as a reference scenario for valuation recovery this quarter.The early morning spike was sharp, with $BTC dropping straight from 75,750 to 73,500, causing over 800 million in liquidations across the network in four hours, with longs accounting for 740 million. The price has recovered, but the funding rate is as low as 0.0028%, and the long-to-short ratio is 2.86; both sides are watching cautiously, and no one dares to bet seriously.
$ETH was even weaker, with 358 million liquidated, more than Bitcoin, and the funding rate turned negative, clearly showing weakness. The spot ETF saw outflows of 1.282 billion last week, with 411 million withdrawn on Friday alone; buying interest is truly absent.
The A-share market saw 1.02 trillion in half a day, with coal, telecommunications, and commercial aerospace sectors taking turns to lead. Zhongji Xuchuang topped with 16.7 billion in turnover, but volume has shrunk, making chasing highs risky.
The US market's semiconductor index rebounded 4.2%, AMD rose 11%, but the semiconductor index fell 12% for the whole week, and only 37% of S&P components rose; the rebound did not spread broadly.
Between 75,700 and 76,100 there is a lot of trapped positions pressing down; if it can't break back above, it will just be a rebound.Jacker's viewpoint is worth discussing. Let me share my personal opinion:
n=2 means the sample size is small, which is a hard limitation in $BTC data research, there's no way around it. The ETF becoming a new variable in this round is also correct.
But there are two factors here that cannot be ignored:
1. The trend of BTC holders shifting towards long-term allocation has remained unchanged through multiple cycles; regardless of whether there is an ETF or not.
2. The correlation between BTC and the US stock market is sometimes high, sometimes low; it cannot always be high, nor can it be forever low.
After all, there are quite a few investors who hold both US stocks and BTC.
When the weight of this portion of capital increases, the linkage between the two becomes tighter. Conversely, when this portion of capital has been fully rotated, the correlation will decrease.
From the data, the current correlation between BTC and the US stock market has reached 0.8, which is almost the highest point since 2020. According to the natural law of mean reversion, after reaching a certain critical value, the correlation will decline.
I once proposed an idea: if the US stock market rises and BTC falls (capital being drained), and the US stock market falls and BTC also falls (capital panicking together)...
Then why do long-term holders want to hold 14 million BTC for the long term instead of converting all of it into US stocks? Obviously, this logic does not hold in the long run.