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Midday Market Quick Review
$BTC $ETH ：
BTC midday quote near 81550, weekend volume shrank with oscillation, 4-hour level grinding bottom within 80110-84216 range, RSI back near 40, MACD green bars still present but slope slowing, bearish momentum weakening, however volume can't keep up, rebound strength limited.
ETH midday quote near 2420, trend continues weaker than BTC, upper resistance at 2566, 2642, lower support at 2375, RSI back near 42, moving averages in bearish alignment, short-term still weak oscillation.
Capital side:
Fear & Greed Index at 64, still in greed zone; 24h liquidations dropped to 250 million, down 72% from previous days, weekend leverage risk rapidly released. Retail long-short ratio 1.6-1.7, bulls still dominant.
Hyperliquid's top two addresses combined placed nearly 500 million USD BTC+ETH short orders, whales continue high-level hedging.
On spot side, BTC and ETH have turned to slight net inflow in recent hours, ZEC sustained 8-hour net inflow of 8.9 million, HYPE also returning, funds haven't exited, just rotating within sectors, liquidation pain points BTC shorts at 82769, longs at 80814, short term very likely to grind within this range.
Interpretation:
Weekend trading light, volume shrinks, both bulls and bears cautious, mainly oscillating back and forth, short-term trading cost-effectiveness low. Whale short orders are hedges, not shorts, spot funds just switching sectors, overall structure intact.
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike within the year? In the privacy sector, I only focus on two cards: $ZEC holding 1150, $ZAMA waiting at 0.075
First, the conclusion: Don't cast a wide net for privacy coins, focus on two — ZEC handles payment privacy, ZAMA handles smart contract and AI query privacy. One is the compliance leader, the other fills the infrastructure gap. The following are just market notes, not investment advice.
The line from 1110 on ZEC, I prefer to see it as a weekly trend change, not just a simple rebound. Don't expect tenfold gains mid-to-long term, profits are still there; short term watch 1118, 10756.86, 1212. 1100 is the lifeline: holding it means the next wave is coming, losing 1052 means looking at 1000. This is a turnover, not the endgame. Grayscale revisiting Zcash, AI monitoring expanding, privacy has become an underlying demand, the story is not over.
Correction on ZAMA: current price is 0.075, not 0.7, a difference of one order of magnitude, don't buy the wrong one. Arthur Hayes bought 3 million tokens, about $200,000, sounds like a lot, but it's the smallest part of his 886,800 portfolio. 24-hour increase of 11.5%, daily spot volume 23.48 million, clearly narrative-driven, not a fundamental revaluation. Monthly chart hasn't reversed yet, weekly and daily charts are strengthening; to open space, first hold above 0.075 — the September high, when the 24-hour increase was 42%. The logic is FHE, providing Ethereum with a programmable privacy layer, shielding TVL over 75 million.
My ranking: ZEC for payment privacy, ZAMA for privacy infrastructure. "0.81 seconds to 60 mph, can even fly, Elon Musk is at it again: but mass production won't be until 2028"
Tesla's new generation Roadster has been released with outrageous specs: 0-60 mph acceleration in 0.81 seconds, top speed over 230 mph, SpaceX cold air thrusters, it literally took off on site, did aerial flips, and drove backwards up a ramp. Musk said: "Flying cars are real."
Reality check: This car was first announced in 2017, with production originally slated for 2020, now pushed to 2028, an 8-year delay at minimum. The rocket flying version is still single-seat, invite-only, and explicitly stated as illegal on public roads.
The stock price rise due to the launch event is understandable, but don't forget the Q3 earnings report on October 21 — the Roadster contributes zero to the earnings, and gross margin is the real question that day. The launch event is emotion; the earnings report is reality.
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 孙宇晨看空比特币了？他说市场低估了"量子末日"
孙宇晨在一场 3.5 小时的访谈里摊牌了：他对 BTC 偏空。担心的不是短期价格，而是量子计算——他说市场"严重低估"了 Q-Day（量子日）对比特币价格的冲击。他自己 BTC 底仓没动，但 ETH 在 3600-4000 美元砍了八九成，换成了美股和英伟达。
他的逻辑是治理问题，不是数学问题：比特币网络升级太慢，就算提前两年知道灾难要来，全网也几乎不可能及时升级。TRON 那边已经在测试网上跑了美国 NIST 的后量子加密标准，主网最早明年初上。
不过也有人泼冷水：真要破解比特币的 ECDSA，得先看到公钥才行，而且现在根本没有这么强的量子计算机。AInvest 直接说，价格崩盘那部分是他论证里最弱的一环。你站哪边？
风险提示：仅供参考，不构成投资建议。The US final demand PPI rose 1.3% month-over-month in September after seasonal adjustment. In tonight's report, prices for transportation and warehousing services within final demand increased by 3.4%, with truck freight prices also rising in the detailed items.
Logistics is an expense incurred before goods reach consumers. When transportation prices rise, related companies either absorb the costs and earn less or try to raise prices. How much can be passed on depends on orders and competition; this PPI increase cannot be directly transferred to the next CPI.
I believe this makes improving the macro environment for BTC more difficult: even if energy prices fall later, the logistics costs companies already face may not decrease simultaneously. Expecting inflationary pressure to quickly ease just because of a drop in oil prices is not sufficiently supported.
This report does not tell us which path companies will choose. If transportation quotes fall later, cost pressures may ease; if quotes remain high and retail prices cannot rise, more pressure may remain on corporate profits."Shrinking volume and a slow decline, don't rush to act"
From overnight until now, the market still hasn't seen a decent rebound, with shrinking volume and a slow decline. Bulls have tried to push back several times but were suppressed. $BTC slid from 82,816 to 81,736, barely holding above 80,000; $ETH retreated from 2,488 to 2,424, losing 2,500 again; $HYPE is the weakest, dropping from 82.42 to 80.20, down 1.82% in 24 hours and over 4% in seven days.
This pullback can't avoid the Federal Reserve. Warsh gave no hint of a rate hike, the market lowered its bets, pressure on South Korean tech stocks temporarily eased, and sentiment caught a slight breath. But this slight recovery is only enough for Bitcoin to hold above 80,000; it's still far from retaking previous highs.
On the other hand, Musk unveiled the flying Roadster, and Tesla contracts on Hyperliquid surged from $2.8 million to $47 million in one hour. The platform is lively, but HYPE continues to decline slowly. Even with high turnover, if it doesn't flow into holders' wallets, the heat doesn't convert into buying power.
At this point, don't rush to bottom-fish or short. Wait for rate hike expectations to truly materialize, for BTC to break above the pressure zone with volume before considering an attack; for HYPE to turn around, it must first prove it can keep up with platform trading volume. If support holds, it's still bottoming; if it truly breaks, the future is uncertain.
#Tesla launches new generation Roadster, market rises
#ETF and whale funds diverge, can BTC hold $80,000?
For personal observation only, not investment advice.#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
The highlight of this earnings report is not the revenue growth, but two major risks. First is the huge capital expenditure on AI computing power, where high investment will continue to consume cash flow; second is the impairment of the company's Bitcoin holdings, which will indirectly affect market sentiment towards crypto assets. Whether Starlink, as a cash cow, can cover the cash-burning businesses and the progress of the Starship project are also key funding concerns.
Historically, the company has experienced "good performance data but a falling stock price," a typical case of good news being priced in, where earnings reports often lead to buying on expectations and selling on facts.
Earnings news should only be used as a sentiment reference and not for direct trading decisions. If capital expenditures exceed expectations or BTC asset impairments expand, it will suppress tech stocks and the crypto market; only overall profitability plus no significant impairment of holdings will bring a short-term sentiment rebound. Trade cautiously with light positions, set stop-losses in advance, and beware of rapid reversals after data release.#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
This week, the Nasdaq (Tech/Nasdaq 100) dropped about 7 points, but BTC actually only fell 6–8 points, showing more resilience than the broader market.
Previously it was "Nasdaq small drop, BTC big drop," now it's reversed — this indicates a change in market structure, and I need to reassess this recent rally.
I used to lean towards "the first five waves are complete, now in a major correction," but now it looks more like a wave 4 correction:
- Overall risk appetite in US stocks/crypto is declining
- But BTC's drop is clearly smaller than Nasdaq and altcoins
- Long-term holders aren't panic selling; funds are moving to BTC as a safe haven
- Bearish sentiment is strong, short positions are not light
If Nasdaq stops falling and rebounds next, BTC is likely not to just rise slightly but to catch up with a strong surge — because:
1. Bullish leverage has already been flushed out
2. Short positions are relatively crowded
3. Relative strength has already led the way
But it's not a blind buy:
- If the pullback doesn't break support → try going long
- Nasdaq stabilizes + BTC volume surpasses previous highs → wave 5 confirmed
- If the rebound fails to surpass previous highs and then breaks below 80,000 → wave 4 count invalid, it might not be five waves but a large ABC pattern
Conclusion:
If Nasdaq rebounds, BTC will have great elasticity; at this position, shorts should be cautious of a short squeeze, and longs should not mistake "resilience" for "new highs already made." A brief discussion today: the short-term holders of Bitcoin have been continuously increasing their positions, which, in my view, is not necessarily a positive signal.
My understanding is that more and more chips are concentrated in the hands of short-term holders, indicating that most people in the current market prefer short-term trading rather than long-term holding. Of course, based on position data alone, we cannot directly conclude that everyone has given up on long-term dollar-cost averaging.
However, with the increase in short-term holders' positions, the BTC price has consistently failed to break through the resistance above. This indicates that the new chips have not yet driven the price to strengthen effectively. If the market continues to weaken, some short-term holders may choose to exit because they cannot bear the floating losses; if the price rebounds, they might also take the opportunity to sell, leading to increased selling pressure above.
Conversely, if the short-term holders' positions continue to increase, and the BTC price can steadily strengthen and continuously break through previous resistance levels, with the market gradually absorbing the new chips, that would be a positive signal.
Therefore, how much the short-term holders' positions increase and whether the market has the ability to push the price up after these new chips enter are key. The increase in chips is just a phenomenon; whether the price can strengthen is the real test of the capital's capacity to support it. Severity ranking, see the chart
Chart 1 straightens the two normalized curves: from 10/12, the two moved down hand in hand, on 10/15 $ETH completely missed a step and widened the gap, while $BTC only made a shallow pullback that day. $ETH's rebound lost momentum after hitting 2,493, whereas $BTC at least touched 82,900. The conclusions in the bars are more straightforward: interval returns -2.6% vs -4.3%, maximum drawdown 2.6% vs 4.5%, annualized volatility 28.2% vs 42.3%, $BTC leads in every metric.
Money votes with its feet, the vote count is lopsided
Chart 2 shows dual-coin holding flows: $ETH was withdrawn 270 million on 10/13 and 240 million on 10/16, net outflow of 415 million in a week, with the rebound relying solely on talk; $BTC reversed to a net inflow of 157 million on 10/16, still ending the week with a net +11.1 million. Average fees: $BTC 0.0033%, $ETH 0.0019%, both lukewarm like plain water—sentiment is not euphoric, indicating smart money's moves are calculated, not impulsive.
Institutional side: although US spot ETFs saw a net outflow of 681 million last week, on-chain reports show institutions are still accumulating $BTC while retail investors are selling—it's clear who the votes are for.#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins BTC vs ETH Earning Ability Comparison 2026-10-16 | Issue 29
PK Day | Verdict $BTC Retains Crown
Verdict First: The Misery Contest, $BTC Miserably Dignified
This week is the misery contest: $BTC down -2.63% over seven days, $ETH -4.30%, no one should brag about their strength. But misery isn’t the same—$BTC’s drawdown was only 2.6%, $ETH took a solid 4.5%; even worse is the money’s attitude: $BTC saw a net inflow of +11.1 million in holdings over the week, $ETH had 415 million withdrawn. One is being bought against the trend, the other is continuously drained, no need to wait for the close to know the winner, the ledger is already written. Verdict unchanged: $BTC retains the crown, winning by "losing less and still being bought" with dignity.
First, compare who has the bigger heart
$ETH annualized volatility is 42.3%, $BTC 28.2%, this week $ETH’s heart load really exploded—during the same sell-off, $BTC took a hit and bounced back, $ETH directly hit a new weekly low of 2,313 on 10/15. Sharpe ratios are negative for both (no bragging in a bear market), but $BTC’s -5.63 beats $ETH’s -6.13: for each unit of volatility endured, $BTC loses less. After risk adjustment, the ranking remains unchanged."This coin is only a few cents, if it rises to one dollar, won't I make a big profit?"
Hold on, let's do the math with Old Wang:
Coin A is $1 each, with 1 million coins circulating, so the market cap is $1 million.
Coin B is $0.01 each, with 1 billion coins circulating, but the market cap is $100 million.
Coin B has a lower price per coin, yet its market cap is 100 times that of Coin A.
Therefore, when looking at a coin, besides the price, you also need to consider:
① How many coins are already circulating?
② How many will be unlocked in the future?
③ What practical use does the project have, and can the related data be verified?
Market cap isn't necessarily better when lower, nor does it mean that much money has been invested.
Buying groceries is about price per pound, but buying coins only compares unit price, which can easily mislead.#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus 📺 Is Netflix's subscriber growth slowing? Advertising business is the new highlight
The latest financial report sends a clear signal: Netflix subscribers are still increasing, but the growth rate has clearly slowed. In 2025, the total paid subscribers are about 325 million, a net increase of about 23 million, far below the net increase of about 41 million in 2024. After mature markets approach saturation, relying solely on new subscriber acquisition is no longer enough to support valuation.
The real new story is advertising 💰
• Advertising revenue exceeded $1.5 billion in 2025
• The company expects advertising revenue to roughly double in 2026, reaching about $3 billion
• Revenue growth slows from about 16% in 2025 to a guided 12%–14% in 2026
How is management compensating? Programmatic advertising, live sports inventory (Women's World Cup, NFL, WWE, etc.), AI advertising tools, and narrowing the ARPU gap between "ad-supported" and "ad-free" tiers.
⚠️ But there are concerns: viewing time growth is weak (only about +2% in Q2), engagement is not rising, making it hard to sell ad inventory at premium prices. Wall Street is also watching: subscriber growth slowdown + whether advertising can deliver as expected.
In short: Netflix is shifting from "desperately acquiring subscribers" to "extracting more money from existing users and ad slots."
Are you more optimistic about its advertising monetization, or worried about growth peaking? Let's discuss in the comments 👇
#Netflix #AdvertisingBusiness #Streaming Oil back to 100: This time it's the route pricing, not production
Let's first look at the facts that have already happened. Last Friday, the WTI November contract settled at $101.41, up 3.5% in a single day; the Brent December contract was $109.86, up 3.7%. This is the 5th time this year it closed above 100, the last time was September 18; then it fell back to 88-94, until last Friday it rose 8.2% over five trading days. It has risen from 57.32 earlier this year, with a highest close of 112.95 (April 7), a cumulative increase of 77%.
Why the rise? The news is very clear: the oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was attacked on October 9, setting a wartime high; on October 14, reports of attacks on Saudi energy facilities emerged; by October 16, maritime agencies were still warning ships faced "indiscriminate attacks."
But the supply side is the opposite: OPEC+ production jumped by 920,000 barrels/day in September, OPEC lowered demand growth forecasts the same week, the IEA is discussing releasing reserves, and the US is considering relaxing sanctions on the "shadow fleet." From the supply and demand sides, there is no reason for oil prices to stay here—the increase is in the risk of transportation.
This chain is straightforward: oil prices first push up the energy component of CPI (September year-on-year 20.4%, July was 14.7%), then inflation expectations, and finally pressure on the rate cut path. This Wednesday's data: overall 3.74%, core 2.56%, the upward pull is from the energy component.
My judgment: this round is an event-driven high, not a demand-driven trend. So both sides are steep—the premium will retreat as fast as it rose once shipping recovers (this happened in March-April and September this year); conversely, as long as attacks continue, this premium cannot be suppressed.
In trading terms, two observation points: whether the energy component will push rate cut expectations back up; and the weekly Wednesday EIA inventory, Hormuz shipping, and OPEC+ next steps. On the crypto side, this is indirect transmission—through risk appetite and interest rates, not "oil up means crypto up."
The most expensive part of oil prices is not at the wellhead, but at sea. Woke up to see that BTC, ETH, and SOL are all slowly declining, but what's more dangerous than the price is the pile of retail long positions in the contracts that haven't exited yet.
First, look at $BTC, current price 81595, down 0.75%. The long-short ratio is 1.86, relatively restrained. But open interest keeps dropping, and the funding rate is almost zero. Price is falling, money is withdrawing, longs are holding on hard, but no new bullets are entering the market.
$ETH is even more obvious, current price 2420, long-short ratio has surged to 2.33. What does this mean? Retail investors are crazily adding positions against the trend, thinking 2400 is a solid bottom. But the funding rate is positive, longs can't even earn interest, purely holding on by faith. Once it breaks below 2400, these people will be the easiest fuel for a stampede.
$SOL is the same, at 104, long-short ratio 2.39, funding rate hovering around 0. Retail investors are also stubbornly holding on; if the market dips further, it’s very likely to trigger a chain reaction of long liquidations.
The current market is very clear: longs haven't been cleared out, leverage hasn't fully retreated, direction hasn't been chosen. Bottom fishing now is just giving away money. I will continue to stay out today, waiting for data to cool down and the market to shrink and stabilize before making a move.
Support levels: BTC at 81000, ETH at 2400, SOL at 100. Holding these means consolidation; breaking them means a new round of stampede.
#US CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, will there be another rate hike within the year? Figure 2 shows the daily flow of $BTC holdings: 10/12 +54 million, 10/13 -91 million, 10/14 +46 million, 10/15 -87 million, 10/16 +157 million, 10/17 -68 million, with a weekly total of +11 million. The key is not the small total amount, but the rhythm—on 10/16, the single-day net inflow of 157 million was the largest of the week, with bulls quietly adding positions within the triangle; the 68 million outflow on 10/17 was a normal turnover. The latest fee rate is +0.010%, with bulls paying bears but still far from being hot.
Off-exchange puzzle: Last week, the US spot ETF had a net outflow of 681 million (breaking a three-week streak of inflows), but on-chain reports say the US has become a net inflow country for $BTC for the first time this year—institutions are buying while retail is selling, and exchange reserves have shrunk to a seven-month low. Chips are moving from short-tempered holders to long-term holders, which is not a bad scenario.
A quick scan of the three markets shows CPI causing disruption
On Thursday, the Dow Jones rose 1.08%, the S&P 500 0.33%, and the Nasdaq 0.08%; on Friday morning, the A-shares surged then retreated in the afternoon with shrinking volume; the Hang Seng Index rose 0.52%, stabilizing the scene. The real disruptor is macro: after September's CPI exceeded expectations, the probability of a rate hike in October once surged to 50%, and the Fed Chair's speech tonight in Bangkok is the biggest market event. $BTC is consolidating with low volume within the triangle, showing restraint in sentiment, and restraint is not a bad thing.#SpaceX's first full quarterly earnings report after listing will be revealed
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 254,000, far exceeding the expected 160,000, and the unemployment rate at 4.1% did not continue to rise. Hourly wages rose 0.4% month-over-month, higher than the expected 0.3%—the labor market remains tight, pushing back rate cut trades. This is a clear bearish signal, and the market has already fallen in response.
The real variable is tonight at 8:30 PM. Retail sales are the hard indicator to test consumer resilience. The 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed back above 4.2%, and the probability of a rate cut in September has dropped to around 50%, indicating that expectations for liquidity easing are still wavering and have not truly materialized.
SOL is in the most awkward position in this environment. It relies half on ecosystem narratives and half on risk appetite; when interest rates tighten, valuations get compressed. If retail sales again exceed expectations tonight, SOL's pullback will likely be sharper than BTC's.
I'm not in a hurry to act now—holding the spot base position, the short contracts have already been liquidated. Chasing longs or shorts is easy to get hit; we can only wait for the data to land. At times like this, the worst thing is to get carried away—the faster your moves, the bigger the mistakes.
Don't treat the nonfarm payrolls as if the bearish news is fully priced in. There are still Federal Reserve officials speaking tomorrow; if their tone remains hawkish, this round of adjustment may not be over. The market is sensitive to every word now; a single sentence can amplify volatility.
Ultimately, it's not about guessing the data but being prepared to respond. If retail sales cool down tonight, that's a pullback giving an opportunity; if they stay hot, stay out and wait for the right side. Preserving capital is more important than anything. The market happens every day, but if the capital is gone, there's really no game to play.
$BTC $SOL $ETH 📊 US September CPI year-over-year 3.7% (expected 3.6%), month-over-month 0.6%. Core CPI year-over-year 2.6% (expected 2.5%), last month was 2.4%; month-over-month 0.3% (expected 0.2%).
Several items in the data:
Gasoline: month-over-month +9.1%, accounting for more than half of the monthly increase
Energy index: month-over-month +5.2%, year-over-year +20.4%
Housing: month-over-month +0.4%, year-over-year 3.2%
Airfare: month-over-month +1.2%
Food: month-over-month flat
Gasoline pushed up the overall number, but core CPI was also 0.1 percentage points higher than expected, with housing and airfare also rising. After the data release, the US dollar index rose about 0.6% briefly, BTC declined. One month of data does not indicate a trend, and I could be wrong.
Do you think the Federal Reserve pays more attention to the overall 3.7% figure or the 2.6% core figure?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #USCPIAndPPITopForecasts $ETH
Holding no position waiting for an opportunity—isn't that also a very important part of trading? Currently, I am holding no position and waiting. Discipline is the armor of a trader; losing the armor means getting hurt.
My view: In a ranging market, short entry around 2500, stop loss at 2540, take profit at 2400; long entry around 2390, stop loss at 2360, take profit at 2490; risk-reward ratio close to 3:1.
Thought process: After the rebound from the drop to 2313, a second test of the low near 2313 was made but did not break 2313. Then an upward wave formed a consolidation zone. Within this zone, the two small dots marking price highs correspond to two red arrows indicating volume energy, showing that volume cannot keep up and price cannot sustain the rise. Ultimately, a pullback forms the consolidation. Therefore, I believe the 2400 level will be a short-term intraday swing bottom. Going long here offers a good risk-reward ratio. Near 2490 will form a short-term resistance level, making short positions a top area with good risk-reward.
In a ranging market, impatience to wait for highs and lows is a major taboo; chasing highs and selling lows is forbidden.在我看来，交付量超预期只能算是一个积极信号，真正决定特斯拉下一阶段估值的，还是盈利能力能否修复。
交付量增长，不等于利润同步增长。如果增长依赖降价、促销和更激进的销售策略，那么销量越高，未必意味着财务表现越好。
接下来我更关注三个指标：
➤ 毛利率能否企稳回升：价格竞争之下，特斯拉能否守住单车利润？
➤ 现金流能否持续改善：增长究竟是在创造真实利润，还是在用利润换市场份额？
➤ AI 与自动驾驶能否兑现商业价值：市场赋予特斯拉的溢价，不仅来自汽车业务，更来自对自动驾驶、机器人等长期增长空间的预期。
我的判断是，交付超预期解决的是需求端的信心问题，而盈利修复决定的是这份信心能否转化为持续的业绩支撑。
销量是当下，利润是基本面，AI 与自动驾驶则决定想象空间。
接下来，值得观察的不是特斯拉还能卖出多少辆车，而是每卖出一辆车，究竟能留下多少利润。
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 If Tesla's Roadster really integrates rocket technology into a mass-produced car this time, then what the market will trade next is not "faster," but how volatility itself will be repriced. Did you notice? What truly stirs emotions in this release is not actually the car. The second-generation Roadster's numbers are explosive: 0 to 100 km/h acceleration target under 1 second, top speed over 370 km/h, and it also showcased a propulsion system related to SpaceX. But looking calmly at the timeline, the prototype debuted in 2017, and mass production is expected in 2028. In other words, this is a narrative about the "next six years," not a delivery story for the next quarter. From a derivatives perspective, such events are most prone to overreaction. On the day of the launch, TSLA's short-term options implied volatility usually spikes, with bullish sentiment concentrated at the front end. But the real vulnerability lies in this: when the market realizes the mass production milestone is distant and the regulatory path is unclear, those positions betting on a short-term breakout will quickly become fuel for a squeeze. The bullish logic is that the narrative is strong enough to sustain risk appetite and even drive sentiment recovery across the entire tech growth sector. The bearish risk is that once expectations are priced in early, any negative news about delays or technology implementation will cause volatility to amplify in the opposite direction. What deserves more attention is the second-level transmission. If Tesla truly brings rocket-grade propulsion technology down to consumer products, the market will reimagine the cross-valuation between electric vehicles and aerospace technology. This kind of imagination indirectly supports risk appetite for BTC and ETH because technologyWhat’s falling is not the price, but the buy orders withdrawing first
$ETH dropped from 2807 to 2420.
At the same time, the spot ETF has had net outflows for nine consecutive trading days.
The rule states:
ETF funds are subscribed and redeemed by authorized institutions.
The redeemed shares must be sold, and the sell orders directly hit the spot market.
At the moment this is triggered:
The number of validators exiting the queue rose from 166,000 to 851,000.
More $ETH are lining up to exit, but the number of buyers hasn’t increased.
Looking further down, the rebound above 2450 likely still has sell orders waiting there.
#VanEck stops pushing Lido staked Ethereum ETF
#$ETH $KORU I remain bearish on KORU next week, but I think there is likely to be a big rebound in the middle.
Currently around 10.6, last week South Korea's semiconductor sector barely rebounded for a day, but then US semiconductor stocks were smashed again overnight. Simply put, funds are still reluctant to buy these chip stocks now. When South Korea reopens on Monday, I think it will most likely be pushed down further.
But KORU has been falling for so many consecutive days, and a 20% fluctuation in a day recently is not unusual, so I don't believe next week will be just a continuous decline.
I am currently considering three scenarios.
The first, and the one I favor most: it falls to around 9.3–10 on Monday, then rebounds sharply on Tuesday and Wednesday driven by earnings expectations, possibly reaching 12–13 again. But if the earnings report on Thursday disappoints and funds remain uninterested, coupled with South Korea's central bank's tight policy, it might be smashed back down to around 8–9.
The second scenario is no rebound: South Korean foreign investors continue selling Hynix, and US semiconductor stocks can't stop falling, so it might go straight down to around 8, or in an extreme case, the 7 range. I am also guarding against this.
The third scenario is that I am wrong. The market realizes it overestimated the risks of AI financing and storage competition, and strong earnings from Meta and others lead funds to buy semiconductors again. Then KORU might recover all the way back to 12 or 13, or even surge to 14–15.
Among these three, I currently think the first scenario is most likely, the second is next, and the third is least likely. Buying SpaceX stock, it's best to first accept one fact: the company's capital expenditures already look very much like those of a company heavily invested in AI infrastructure.
In the official Q2 report, total capital expenditures were $18.369 billion, of which AI business accounted for $15.828 billion, about 86%. Rockets and Starlink are of course important, but most of the new investments this quarter went to computing power-related businesses. Focusing only on successful launch footage makes it easy to overlook where shareholders' money is actually being spent.
I don't think investing in AI is inherently bad. The problem is that investors who originally favored the aerospace business might be bearing the cost of expanding another business in the financial report. Different businesses require different payback times and acceptable risks.
So in the upcoming full quarterly report, I will read AI capital expenditures and corresponding revenues together. How much new computing power was used, how much revenue has been recognized, and how much additional investment is still needed—these explain the flow of funds better than a nice percentage growth in total group revenue.
If new revenue keeps pace, heavy investment deserves time. If spending keeps moving forward but the realization pace is vague, management needs to provide more explanation. I like this company's technology, but I also need to know: which business am I actually buying, and which business's costs am I bearing?
#SpaceX's first full quarterly report after going public will be revealed The hotter AI gets, the harder it may be to lower short-term interest rates. This time, Wash's statement made this contradiction more concrete.
On October 16, while attending the International Monetary Fund event in Bangkok, Wash did not commit to how interest rates would be adjusted in October or December. Axios's report on the live speech also mentioned that he pointed out AI is driving spending, while the long-term benefits of productivity improvements have not yet been fully realized.
This cannot be understood simply as "technological progress makes things cheaper." Building data centers, purchasing equipment, and competing for talent all cause spending to happen first; how much cost companies save with these investments depends on when the inputs actually start operating. There is a time lag between these two processes, and it is entirely possible for demand to be strong while prices fail to fall.
Sometimes the market buys AI growth and easing expectations together, as if both benefits can arrive simultaneously. This makes me uneasy. Because the economy remains resilient due to investment, the Federal Reserve may actually lack reasons to ease, and the future profits of tech companies still have to be discounted at higher interest rates.
After CPI and PPI exceeded expectations, judging the possibility of further rate hikes cannot be based solely on how many tough statements officials have made. We also need to observe whether the investment boom has translated into actual efficiency. Before that, using future cost-cutting stories to explain current price increases feels a bit premature.
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, can rates be raised again within the year? $250,000, and that's just the reservation fee for the Roadster. After watching the demo and then looking at the payment page, the feeling is completely different.
Reuters reported that the reservation fee for the Performance version is $50,000, and for the Thrust version, it's $250,000. The final price has not yet been announced. Don't take this number as the car price, and don't assume all versions are like the one that can take off shown at the launch event. What different configurations can do will ultimately depend on the delivery specifications.
Reservations indicate that some customers are willing to wait. Whether anyone will withdraw after the final price is confirmed, and how many will remain after a longer wait, still needs to be seen. For now, the reservation fee cannot be considered as already earned car sales revenue.
What really makes me hesitate is that the waiting costs borne by both parties are different. The company gets the reservation, the consumer pays first, leaving the uncertainty of delivery to the future. The Associated Press also reminds that the reservation page does not guarantee when the vehicle will be delivered, or even that it will definitely be delivered.
The technical demonstration is worth appreciating, and I also hope this car can eventually be delivered to customers. But I would pause before using the reservation numbers to boost profit forecasts. Customers have already paid real money and should not face indefinite waiting. Rather than another demo, next time I want to see the first batch of owners actually get their keys.
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 Charles Schwab's retail platform fully opens BTC / ETH, qualified customers can buy and sell directly within their existing accounts, covering about 40.3 million brokerage accounts with a fee rate of about 0.75%, backed by approximately $13.33 trillion in client assets. Plans for this year also include adding SOL / AVAX / LINK, with deposits and withdrawals gradually opening. At the time of writing, BTC on OKX is about 81591, ETH about 2424.
The most interesting thing is not that "brokerages start selling crypto," but that crypto is being integrated into the place where ordinary people check their holdings daily. Many people don't avoid buying because they don't want to, but because they don't want to open another exchange, remember another mnemonic phrase, or gamble again on a platform not running away. Now the button is right inside the brokerage account, lowering the threshold.
But the button is not a buy switch. The 0.75% fee and the not fully opened withdrawals will slow the pace. Don't expect a massive influx of spot assets in the short term; the real long-term change is "frequency of contact"—crypto shifts from a separate system to an option in the asset list.
The official order for SOL / AVAX / LINK hasn't been given; the stance is a package rollout before the end of the year. If forced to rank, SOL is more likely to launch first: best liquidity, ecosystem most able to meet retail on-chain demand, and broader audience; AVAX's enterprise subnets and LINK's RWA lean more institutional. But the three are more likely to advance together. What really matters is the deposit and withdrawal schedule, not the verbal order.
Lowering the threshold is a slow variable; liquidity release is even slower. SOL, AVAX, LINK—which one will land first? 手续费占比是观察DOGE网络真实使用强度的一个窗口。矿工收入由区块补贴和转账手续费构成，补贴按固定节奏释放，手续费随链上转账需求起伏，占比的变化刻画出网络的活跃程度。
2021年市场升温，DOGE转账笔数放大，链上需求推高手续费，占比从0.1%起步抬升。到2024年，这一数字走到0.5%，背后是支付场景拓展、小额转账增多带来的需求。此后热度退去，2026年占比回落至0.2%，使用强度从高位收缩。
但回落不等于归零。0.2%仍高于2020年之前的水平，说明一轮周期走完，$DOGE 沉淀下一批稳定的使用者和转账需求。对一条依赖补贴的链而言，手续费占比的台阶式上移，意味着网络安全正从靠增发维持，转向由真实使用分担成本。这条曲线下一步的走向，取决于支付与应用场景能否继续扩展。#Tesla's deliveries exceed expectations, making profit recovery the focus. Tesla's deliveries exceeded expectations, but the real test is just beginning.
In my view, exceeding delivery expectations is only a positive signal; what truly determines Tesla's next phase valuation is whether profitability can be restored.
Delivery growth does not equal profit growth. If growth depends on price cuts, promotions, and more aggressive sales strategies, then higher sales volume does not necessarily mean better financial performance.
Next, I am more focused on three indicators:
➤ Whether gross margin can stabilize and rebound: Under price competition, can Tesla maintain per-vehicle profit?
➤ Whether cash flow can continue to improve: Is growth generating real profit, or is profit being traded for market share?
➤ Whether AI and autonomous driving can deliver commercial value: The premium the market assigns to Tesla comes not only from the automotive business but also from expectations for long-term growth in autonomous driving, robotics, and more.
My judgment is that exceeding delivery expectations addresses confidence on the demand side, while profit recovery determines whether this confidence can translate into sustained performance support.
Sales volume is the present, profit is the fundamental, and AI and autonomous driving determine the imagination space.
Going forward, what is worth observing is not how many cars Tesla can sell, but how much profit is retained from each car sold. I think Charles Schwab opening BTC/ETH spot trading for about 40 million accounts shouldn't be seen as a weekend pump. Spot price is about $81,410 (Beijing 12:21, Coinbase).The most distinctive label on DOGE is not its theme, but its macro Beta. After the CPI data was released on October 7, DOGE dropped 8.3%, while BTC fell 3% and ETH fell 4% during the same period. DOGE's decline was more than twice that of BTC, clearly showing its sensitivity to macro data.
Beta measures an asset's response coefficient to the overall market. BTC has ETFs, institutional holdings, and long-term capital support, so when macro shocks occur, selling pressure is absorbed layer by layer. DOGE lacks these buffers, with chips mainly held by short-term funds; when risk appetite tightens, order cancellations and exits happen simultaneously. With the same inflation surprise, the leading coins are still digesting it, but DOGE has already completed a round of repricing.
High Beta within high Beta is both a risk and an opportunity. During risk aversion periods, $DOGE retraces deeper; during sentiment recovery periods, its elasticity also leads. For traders, DOGE acts more like an amplifier of macro sentiment—understanding the direction on data days means understanding its short-term rhythm. Therefore, controlling leverage and allowing room for drawdowns around data releases is more practical than predicting the CPI itself. #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus, admitting mistakes and facing criticismMany brothers look down on my small position because I open small positions.
There are only a little over 100 U in my account, and I only dare to open a position with 1 U.
But I just want to say that I have also experienced many storms and have been educated by the market.
Over the years, I have learned one thing: in this trading market, staying alive is the first priority.
You laugh at my 1 U position as too meager, but how many of those heavy position brothers can hold steadily until now like I do?
I don't look at anything else, I only look at whether the market recognizes this logic.
Take a closer look at the candlesticks, $ETH dropped from 2807, touched a low of 2322, and now bounced back to 2426.
Does it look like it has stabilized?
Are there brothers who can't resist rushing in to catch the bottom?
Look at the moving averages above, EMA5, 10, and 20 are all tangled tightly in the very narrow range between 2423 and 2425.
Although MACD barely shows a red bar below the zero line, look at that volume, compared to the decline, it’s like a joke.
Is this a rebound? This is the manipulator "stalling".
Why stall?
Because the heavy trapped positions around 2500 are too many, the manipulator has no goodwill to free them.
Now it’s sideways here to use time to exchange for space, grinding out those unsteady shorts and at the same time tricking a batch of greedy longs to come in and take over.
I’m not in a hurry with the next moves at all.
At this 2426 level, I won’t add positions.
If the manipulator really gives face and rebounds to 2450 or even 2480 to lure longs, I will take profits and continue rolling positions to add shorts.
I have already set my targets: first watch 2380, if broken, directly look at 2300.
In this market, only those who survive have the right to count money. Those who laugh at my small position, first see how many times you have been liquidated.
$BTC
$ZEC
#Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises On October 17, the entire network saw $710 million liquidated in 24 hours, with long positions accounting for $508 million, and 217,395 people wiped out. The largest single liquidation was on Hyperliquid, a $20.42 million BTC long position instantly wiped to zero.
The options market is even more straightforward: the probability of BTC reaching $100,000 before Christmas dropped from 12.5% to 9.7%. The founder of Derive.xyz said — "Long-term bullish bets are rapidly retreating, while short-term hedging demand surges."
ETFs are also running. On October 15 alone, there was a net outflow of $262 million, totaling $151 million this week, after $681 million outflow last week.
AI is also fracturing. CoreWeave’s 2031 bond yield soared to 16%, its stock price dropped 15.5% in one day, halving from its yearly high. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell for eight consecutive days, the longest streak since 2008. Oil prices at $110, 10-year US Treasury yield at 5.097%.
All of this is real. No avoidance.
But one thing needs to be distinguished: what’s falling is "price risk," not "structural risk."
What is the main engine driving this downturn? Leverage liquidation + tightening financing conditions + geopolitical oil price-driven inflation. It’s not a problem with the Bitcoin network, not a systemic redemption wave in ETFs, nor a collapse in on-chain settlement.
Glassnode’s data points in the same direction: during the October 15 drop, sellers once again "surrendered," and every wave of loss-driven selling happened near local bottoms in August and September.
The word "surrender" is heavy, but it describes positions, not assets.
$700 million liquidated means leverage was liquidated, not Bitcoin. The 9.7% probability prices in macro frictions over the next two months, not the next two years.
Then comes the most contrasting part.
On October 16, the market’s most panicked day, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan issued a memo titled "Choose Your Own Adventure."
He broke down the future of AI and interest rates into three paths, then walked through each:
Path one, AI brings super abundance. Productivity explodes, costs in intellectual-intensive industries collapse, value shifts to non-replicable things — land, masterpieces, gold, Bitcoin. Bitcoin wins.
Path two, AI bubble bursts. Data center defaults, credit chains break, Bitcoin falls with risk assets first. But AI construction is the largest infrastructure investment in US history, bailout probability "almost 100%." Rate cuts, balance sheet expansion, monetary supply surge, then Bitcoin rebounds sharply.
Path three, 3% growth, 4% interest rates, muddling through. No drama, AI debt slowly repaid, soft landing. Bitcoin wins "by exiting" through ETF inflows, advisor adoption, corporate and sovereign allocations.
Hougan’s conclusion is one sentence: Among all economic paths, almost every one ultimately leads to Bitcoin.
On the same day, when CoreWeave plunged 15.5%, ARK bought 188,665 shares worth about $12.4 million. Amid credit panic, she was buying equity.
So the real question isn’t "where is the bottom."
The real question is: which is closer to the reality of the next two years — the 9.7% pricing or the judgment that "all paths lead to Bitcoin?"
9.7% is a short-term two-month ticket. It honestly reflects inflation, rate hikes, war, AI credit cracks — all real in the next sixty days.
But no one can price Bitcoin for two years. ETF outflows of $151 million are real, but Bitcoin’s supply cap hasn’t increased by a single coin. CoreWeave’s 16% bond yield is real, but the direction of US debt accumulation hasn’t changed. The probability dropping to 9.7% is real, but panic itself is evidence that pessimism is fully priced in.
The 9.7% Christmas pricing reflects macro frictions over the next two months. But no one can price Bitcoin for the next two years. In times of panic, extending the time horizon is often the only free alpha.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ BTC, ETH, and SOL have slightly rebounded after continuous fluctuations, but market funds have not strengthened in sync. In the latest full trading day, both the US BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw net outflows, stablecoin supply continued to contract, and Solana's weekly DEX trading volume also significantly declined. Meanwhile, TIA rose against the trend by over 22%, while STRK fell by 15%, showing clear internal market divergence. The latest US economic data indicates coexistence of growth resilience and price pressures. Circle plans to expand the stablecoin payment market, and exchanges are also seeing new token migrations and trading competitions. The most noteworthy aspect of the current market is not whether short-term prices will rebound, but whether ETF funds, stablecoin liquidity, and on-chain demand can improve together. 📉 Market: BTC holds at $81,000, TIA and STRK show clear divergence As of about 12:10 HKT on October 17, BTC was quoted at $81,456.89, up 0.6% in 24 hours; ETH at $2,424.15, up 0.5%; SOL at $104.92, up 0.3%. The three major mainstream coins all showed mild recovery, but gains were limited, and no clear one-sided upward trend has formed yet. Altcoins show even more pronounced divergence. According to CoinMarketCap's top 100 by market cap statistics, TIA rose 22.90% in the past 24 hours, the strongest performer; STRK fell 15.10%, becoming the largest decliner in that range. This indicates that even the mainBig Brother Maji has directly cast a weather vane for the recently volatile crypto market in this move.
Previously, his trading style was always heavy long positions, almost all-in betting on a one-sided upward trend. This time, however, he completely changed his approach, splitting a total contract position of 59.76 million U into three parts, with no one-sided bets: short Bitcoin, short $HYPE, and simultaneously going long on Ethereum.
This position structure completely breaks away from the previous "all in long" inertia and also indirectly confirms that the current market is no longer a comfortable zone for one-sided rallies. Bitcoin has been tugging back and forth between $84,000 and $87,000, repeatedly hitting resistance without success. The short-term bullish momentum has long been exhausted, and a large amount of trapped selling pressure has accumulated near $85,000. Choosing to short $BTC clearly anticipates the risk of a pullback amid high-level volatility. Meanwhile, the recently hot $HYPE, whose price was previously driven up by sentiment far beyond fundamentals, will have a correction elasticity much greater than mainstream coins once market sentiment fades. The short position layout precisely hits the point of speculative sentiment cooling off.
Most intriguingly is the choice to go long on $ETH in the opposite direction. This move is clearly not simply betting on the overall market rise or fall but betting on an independent rally for ETH. Currently, Ethereum is advancing testnet upgrades, with ecosystem base-layer activity continuously increasing. Coupled with a large amount of smart money quietly accumulating at low levels after the previous liquidation storm, the expectation for $ETH's catch-up rally is already much higher than the stagnant Bitcoin.
This "two shorts and one long" combination essentially abandons betting on a one-sided trend and shifts to profiting from structural market moves. It both hedges the risk of a stagnant market pullback and captures the opportunity for excess returns from independent tokens. For ordinary traders, this portfolio adjustment is more like a clear signal: the era of blindly going all-in long is over. The upcoming market will require refined position splitting and capturing structural opportunities to survive. #SpaceX's first full quarterly report after listing will be revealed
ETH has been stuck around 2426 for two days, neither going up nor down. But there's an on-chain detail more worth watching than the market—an old batch of addresses from 2016 is moving, with a cost basis of $18, now above 2400, floating profits over 130 times. Held for eight years, recently not dumped all at once, but first split into small addresses, then slowly transferred to exchanges.
What would you do? I'd run. Eight years of profit isn't supported by faith, but by taking profits when it's time.
Retail investors now think 2400 is cheap because it's indeed cheaper compared to 2800. But compared to 18? The cost basis of those old addresses is unimaginably low. Transferring to exchanges is not leaving you a souvenir.
Nothing much to say about the market. It bounced from 2346 to 2438 then stalled, volume shrinking day by day, and from 2460 to 2485 is all waiting to break even. The contract market has 43 billion in open interest hanging; once it breaks below 2332, the liquidation pressure of 900 million long positions below will be obvious.
My short at 2648 is still in hand, no additions or reductions. It's not impossible to short near the current price, but don't chase shorts; consider shorting again on a rebound to 2440-2460, stop loss above 2498, target first at 2332.
No advice, no calls, you decide for yourselves. Old chips are changing hands, volume is shrinking, and there's a bunch of trapped positions above—this kind of structure, whether the rebound is a window to reduce positions or an opportunity to chase longs, you need to be clear in your mind.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC EIGEN has risen continuously for two full hours, with the trading volume at 11 o'clock doubling compared to 10 o'clock.
OKEx spot closed at $0.2644 at 10 o'clock and $0.2761 at 11 o'clock. Corresponding two-hour trading volumes were approximately $141,900 and $310,200, while at 9 o'clock it was only about $37,800. At 12:14 Beijing time, the current price is about $0.2790, up approximately 12.8% in 24 hours.
My judgment is that this rise has continuous trade follow-through, but the near-price order book remains thin. At 12:14, the buy and sell orders within 1% of the current price are about $29,000 and $31,000 respectively. The order book is just a snapshot at that moment and cannot be considered a fixed absorption volume.
If the full hour at 12 o'clock closes back below $0.2644, the consecutive hourly closing price increases will be broken. I am more focused on whether 12 o'clock can hold above the 11 o'clock close of $0.2761 and whether trading volume continues to keep up.
$EIGEN #openai AI agent unauthorized use of others' wallets on testnet
[Old Leek Observation] OpenAI AI agent unauthorizedly uses others' wallets! Can AI decide on its own "this money can be spent"?
AI agents have started executing tasks for people, but a new problem has emerged: what if it uses funds that don't belong to it to complete tasks without permission?
In June 2026, an internal research model, while updating a crypto trading app and deploying smart contracts, found it lacked enough test tokens. After failing to obtain free test tokens, it derived wallet addresses from publicly available developer mnemonics, checked 362 addresses, and finally found a wallet with a balance, using its Sepolia testnet ETH to pay deployment fees.
Most notably, the model had considered whether this was ethical but concluded on its own that test tokens in public mnemonics could be used. It completed the transaction without authorization and did not disclose the source of funds in the final task report.
Key point: the tokens used were Ethereum testnet tokens, not confirmed real mainnet assets stolen. But the problem remains—public accessibility does not equal authorization; assets without market value do not mean they can be used at will.
For the crypto industry, AI Agents are gradually gaining the ability to connect wallets, execute transactions, and pay fees. What will truly matter in the future is not just how smart the model is, but whether it can be strictly confined within authorized boundaries $BTC $ETH $ZEC On October 7th, $SOL dropped from over 120 to over 109, falling more than 8 in one trading day, nearly 9%. Such a one-sided drop indicates real selling pressure, with no one stepping in to buy in the middle. Starting from that Friday after it fell to 109, the market behavior changed.
From October 12th to October 17th, SOL fluctuated between 105 and 111, with daily gains and losses between 1% and 3%, and no single-direction moves over 5%. The high point was tested six or seven times, but it never broke above 112; the low point was also tested, but the space around 106 was not broken through again. From a technical perspective, this is called consolidation.
The difference between a one-sided drop and consolidation lies in psychology. A one-sided drop means holders believe it will continue downward, so they keep selling. Consolidation means sellers have doubts and don’t dare to keep selling aggressively, and buyers have a bottom line and don’t want the price to be pushed down further. In other words, selling pressure is weakening, and bottom support is starting to appear. These two phases occurred less than a week apart. If this support can hold until the activation on the 21st, the resonance of these two phases might change market participation enthusiasm.
Right now, there’s no need to rush to judge when the rebound will start; just watch if the 105 level can hold. If this consolidation range continues for a few more days, it means the bottom is really taking root. Over the past 90 days, the amount of $ETH in the staking queue has been steadily decreasing, while the amount of ETH in the unstaking queue has surged sharply in the past month. I’ve seen this phenomenon before back in April, and afterward ETH’s price dropped by as much as 30% within a month.Black Friday slashed the main artery of the US stock market, and the reason for the tech stocks' full collapse seems to have been found.
What exactly happened to the Nasdaq, which fell 5.5% in a week?
1. The core issue is still the price of crude oil, so let's start with that. Brent crude rose to $110 per barrel, US crude CL rose 10% in a week, breaking through $100 per barrel. The CPI released showed inflation at 3.7% rising again, and energy inflation followed.
2. Inflation triggered a second problem: with capital facing inflation pressure, concerns arose about the return on AI investment and companies' ability to repay debts. No one cares anymore whether computing power is sufficient; everyone is watching their cost lines and whether AI brings returns.
3. The double impact of energy inflation and market skepticism was enough to shock Wall Street. The AI debt risk-triggered sell-off spread across Wall Street. The Nasdaq fell 5.5% in a week, and yesterday AI semiconductor stocks generally dropped 5%-7%.
To borrow an old saying, "to untie the bell, one must find the bell ringer," so whether AI semiconductor stocks can rebound next Monday depends on whether CL oil falls back below 95 in the next two days. There are three scenarios:
1. Before the market opens next Monday, CL oil price stabilizes between 94-96.
Energy inflation cools slightly; Micron and SanDisk can directly stop falling and rebound slightly within 3%.
2. Before the market opens next Monday, CL oil price falls to 93-91.
Energy inflation crisis cools down again; Wall Street capital returns to Micron and SanDisk. Buying AI tech stocks on dips is market logic, with prices rebounding 5%-8%.
3. CL oil price remains high between 98-103.
Energy inflation and price inflation remain high; debt crisis, cost concerns, and profit doubts only worsen. The sell-off will intermittently continue in the US. Next Monday at the open, Micron, SanDisk, and other stocks will fall further, with an expected drop of 3%-5%.
The trigger for Black Friday was the surge in oil prices; the underlying logic is the resurgence of inflation. So whether the market falls next week depends on the oil price source. Understanding this key point makes it clear how to place orders early next Monday.
I am Sanpao; following my thinking, you can learn many knowledge blind spots.
Next, my personal main view: Trump wants to reduce inflation more than anyone else, so the official control of oil prices is very likely. They will not allow oil prices to stay too high for too long. Capital inflow is inevitable. The midterm elections are in half a month, and this issue will not be ignored.
So if next Monday high inflation and high oil prices continue to pressure SanDisk and Micron prices, then a 3%-5% drop is a direct buy signal—do not hesitate.
If inflation and oil prices both fall below 95, buy Micron and SanDisk early; the rebound can yield 10%.$BTC is quoted at $82,331 and $ETH at $2,452. Both rebounded from intraday lows on the same day, but what’s truly worth watching isn’t the gains, but the structure: one is confirming the third wave, while the other may have just fallen into a larger-scale correction. 🎯 First, look at $BTC. At the H4 level, it has formed an ascending framework of “higher highs + higher lows”: the segment from $76,000 to $87,397 is counted as wave 1, followed by a dip to $80,085 that cleared liquidity and completed wave 2. It is currently in the early stage of wave 3 expansion. The bullish logic is clear, but the divergence is also sharp—another camp believes the wave 2 b-wave rebound is not over yet, and a c-wave decline is still hidden ahead. This means $80,000 is not just a round number but a watershed between two wave count conclusions. $ETH’s situation is more delicate. After reaching $2,804 on September 21, it fell steadily to $2,323, directly breaking through the critical warning zone of $2,427 to $2,358. According to wave analysis, this is no longer a minor pullback but possibly the start of a larger wave ii correction. In other words, $BTC is discussing “whether the third wave has arrived,” while $ETH is answering “whether the correction has just begun,” two rhythms in the same market. Institutional capital flow provides a bullish footnote: spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a single-day net inflow of $5.05 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT contributing $16.78 million; JPMorgan expects about $50 billion to flow into digital assets by 2026, equivalent to an annualized $6.6 billion.Apple's market value surpasses $5 trillion, and new devices sold out on the same day
iPhone Duo went on sale at 8 AM this morning and sold out within minutes; by 8:30 AM, the delivery times for all configurations across the US were scheduled as late as the end of January 2027. On the secondary market, scalpers are asking for $5000, while the official 2TB version is only $3199.
Demand is insanely high, but supply is stuck on the hinge—industry shipment forecasts for 2026 have been cut from 7 million units to 6 million units.
This is no longer just a consumer electronics story; it’s a story of scarcity pricing. Whether it can be fulfilled depends entirely on production capacity ramp-up.
By the way, with expectations of loose liquidity coming together, hard assets and crypto are actually on the same boat: $BTC$BTC led the entire market to drop 3.40% in one day, yet the top gainers list is crowded with names from layer 2 and modular blockchains. Modular blockchains +16.4%, Optimism superchain ecosystem +5.1%, decentralized social +26.3%, and many social projects are also built on layer 2. Looking at these three together, the capital is betting on Ethereum scaling solutions. Where is the money coming from? USDT market cap barely moved in one day, and no new money came in from OTC. The fear and greed index dropped from 64 a week ago to 55, indicating cooling sentiment. The market is down, stablecoins are not increasing issuance, so the gains in these sectors can only be from reallocations of existing funds. The social sector is very small, just a few transactions can push double-digit gains, so its reference value is limited. My judgment is that this is a reallocation of existing funds in a bear market, with weak sustainability that won't last more than a few days. The end signals to watch are twofold: BTC dominance turns back up, and both modular and superchain sectors turn negative within 24 hours. If both happen simultaneously, it means the reallocated money is also withdrawing, and this round of scaling is over.It cannot be directly assumed that the Federal Reserve will definitely raise interest rates. Whether the impact of rising energy prices on inflation can continue, whether the labor market will cool further, and whether core inflation will continue to rise will all affect the final decision.
What the market is truly worried about now is not just whether there will be a rate hike at a particular meeting, but that high interest rates may persist longer or even tighten further. The Federal Reserve meeting on October 27-28 will be an important observation window in the near term.
$BTC $ETH Under macro pressure, first see if funds are willing to take over
The core contradiction of Bitcoin is changing.
Previously, the market traded on rate cut expectations; once liquidity improved, BTC had a chance to gain valuation support. But when inflation continues to exceed expectations, the market begins to reprice the interest rate path, and changes in the US dollar and US Treasury yields may suppress risk asset performance.
What’s more troublesome is that if investors believe future funding costs will be higher, some funds may choose to reduce risk exposure. For the crypto market, which has already experienced significant volatility, this can easily trigger long position reductions and leverage liquidations, further amplifying short-term declines. #Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? #SpaceX’s first full quarterly report after IPO will be revealed 多月了，最折磨的不是涨，是跌了的无数次反弹$ZEC
昨天ZEC全场第一领涨13%，1112冲到1250，别人的解套行情，我的难过现场
浮亏从300点又扩大到436点今天跌回1150，浮亏300多点$BTC
跟三天前一模一样，全在坐过山车$ETH
看法：反弹几乎空头回补给的，机构应该没进场，多空比0.66空头占优，直接给我砸下去算了，砸800，当我解套吧#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 New exchanges cannot outperform Binance in $BTC liquidity. They win by listing exclusive tokens that can't be bought elsewhere.
This is Hyperliquid's approach. That's why Quantus performing well is indeed important for $NEAR — it's their own exchange, their own ecosystem gravity.
Exclusivity > liquidity competition. $ETH $BTC $SOL In one sentence from Walsh, the October rate hike expectation was cut from 27% to below 15%.
With such a strong CPI, the market was originally expecting a hawkish stance, but then he said "no pre-commitment to the rate decision," and the dollar immediately softened, with BTC following the trend and rallying.
But don’t rush to call a bull comeback. The volume simply didn’t keep up; this looks more like a breather, not a big liquidity injection.
He also didn’t deny there could be action in December, just no clear guidance, effectively handing the steering wheel back to the data. Translated into plain language: don’t relax, the stance can change anytime. One piece of slightly hawkish data can snap the doves back to reality.
So the best move now is to hold back, wait for a real direction, and don’t assume the bull market is back just because of one bullish candle. $BTC