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What should be the key focus for $ETH going forward?
Next, ETH needs to pay attention to three directions:
1. Whether the geopolitical situation truly eases. Trump's statements are just anticipatory signals; the key to judging whether the energy risk premium will decline lies in whether there is substantive progress in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Middle East situation.
2. Changes in the US dollar and US Treasury yields. If oil prices fall while the dollar and US Treasury yields weaken simultaneously, it will be more favorable for the valuation recovery of risk assets; otherwise, ETH's rebound potential may be limited.
3. ETH's own price and capital performance. Macro positive factors can only provide catalysts and cannot directly confirm the market trend. It is necessary to further observe whether key resistance levels can be effectively broken through, whether buying supports during pullbacks, and whether spot capital continues to flow in.
#Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? #SpaceX's first full quarterly report after listing will be revealed $ETH $BTC Woke up to see that BTC, ETH, and SOL are all slowly declining, but even scarier than the price is the pile of retail long positions in the contracts that haven't exited.
First, look at $BTC current price 81595, down 0.75%. The long-short ratio is 1.86, relatively restrained. But open interest keeps dropping, and the funding rate is almost zero. Price is falling, money is withdrawing, longs are holding on hard, but no new bullets are coming in.
$ETH is even more obvious, current price 2420, long-short ratio has surged to 2.33. What does this mean? Retail investors are crazily adding positions against the trend, thinking 2400 is a solid bottom. But the funding rate is positive, longs can't even earn interest, purely holding on by faith. Once it breaks below 2400, these people will be the easiest fuel for a stampede.
$SOL is the same, at 104, long-short ratio 2.39, funding rate hovering around 0. Retail investors are also stubbornly holding on; as long as the market dips further, it’s very likely to trigger a chain reaction of long liquidations.
The current market is very clear: longs haven't been cleared out, leverage hasn't fully retreated, direction hasn't been chosen. Bottom fishing now is just giving away money. I will continue to stay out today, waiting for data to cool down and the market to shrink and stabilize before making a move.
Support levels: BTC at 81000, ETH at 2400, SOL at 100. Holding these means consolidation; breaking them means a new round of stampede.
US CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations. Will there be another rate hike within the year?Why do I say that around 80,000 is a strong support? I'm not hyping a trade; this market move has put the evidence right in front of us.
This time, both CPI and PPI were hotter than expected, and Bitcoin dropped to around 79,800.
Many thought it would break down, but the price only stayed near 80,000 briefly before buying pressure pushed it back above 81,000, completing a rebound within a few hours. This kind of immediate catch after a drop is more convincing than just looking at the numbers.
I see the area around 80,000 as the current key defensive line, mainly based on:
1. Macro perspective is catching a bit of a breather.
Warsh did not give a clear signal for a rate hike; the probability of a rate hike in October was revised down to 15%. Although yields remain high, at least there is no further hawkish escalation. When the macro environment does not worsen, this price level is easier to defend.
2. Technical perspective shows multiple overlaps.
The uptrend line is roughly at 80,400, the 50-day moving average is also nearby, and the average cost of spot ETFs is around 81,500 to 82,300. Breaking below this range would cause many institutional positions to turn to losses, and there have been noticeable buy orders on the order book.
3. Funding perspective
ETF outflows overall in October, institutional buying is not strong. But reports show that whales are more inclined to accumulate this week, and the spot order book has support near 80,000. The fact that the price can be held up despite cautious institutional funds indicates other buying activity.
In terms of trading, I prefer to treat this range as an observation anchor.
Liquidity is thin over the weekend, making it easy for spikes. Do you think 80,000 can hold this time? #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ U.S. inflation exceeds expectations, uncertainty about rate hikes remains this year, how to view BTC/ETH/SOL?
U.S. September CPI and PPI both surpassed expectations, making inflation stickiness a renewed market focus. After the data release, rate hike expectations briefly intensified, but Fed officials like Waller, Daly, and Quarles subsequently signaled dovish tones, unwilling to lock in an October decision prematurely. Currently, the market prices the probability of a 25 basis point hike in October at about 15%, but there remains significant disagreement on whether rates will rise again this year.
Market logic
BTC: Elevated inflation suppresses risk assets, but the short-term rate hike probability has been pushed down, so the market won't be crushed unilaterally for now. More likely, it will oscillate repeatedly around key ranges, awaiting further Fed officials' speeches for repricing.
ETH: Follows BTC's direction but with greater elasticity. Slight changes in rate expectations will amplify ETH's volatility, making short-term breakout chasing riskier.
SOL: A high-beta asset, more sensitive to liquidity expectations. If rate hike expectations rise again, SOL will face more pronounced pullback pressure; if easing expectations rebound, the recovery will be faster.
Core judgment
Rising inflation is a hard negative, but dovish Fed officials' statements have temporarily stabilized sentiment. Simply put, data is hot but the probability of an immediate October hike is low. The market enters a wait-and-see phase, with BTC, ETH, and SOL likely to maintain wide oscillations, awaiting more policy signals for direction. If inflation continues to rebound later, the risk of restarting rate hikes this year will return. #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ Watching the market rebound enthusiastically, but the underlying funds actually haven't kept up.
Are you really brave enough to chase directly in this round of warming?
Recently monitoring the market, I found price recovery and market sentiment warming up, but when breaking down the capital flows of BTC, ETH, and SOL, the heat and capital structure are completely disconnected.
✅$BTC
Spot net outflow of $13.7 million in 1 hour, brief net inflow in 4 hours, still a net outflow of $133 million in 24 hours; contracts also see large outflows. The previous bottom-supporting funds have clearly weakened; this rebound is a passive repair, not driven by incremental buying actively pushing it up.
✅$ETH
A coin that easily misleads. 24-hour contract net inflow of $375 million looks strong, but in the recent 1-hour and 4-hour periods, funds have turned to net outflow; spot also has a 24-hour net outflow of $57.05 million. Despite the impressive data, recent buying power is weak.
✅$SOL
Among the three, it performs relatively better, with spot net inflows maintained in 1h/4h/24h, indicating funds are supporting the spot market. Contract funds continue to flow out; the key is whether this spot support can sustain. Once spot funds weaken, this strong momentum will be short-lived.
Waiting for two confirmation signals: BTC and ETH spot funds turn positive, and SOL spot support stabilizes. Before these signals arrive, chasing longs is futile.
But risks cannot be ignored: contract funds continue to withdraw, spot support is weak, and the market relies solely on sentiment. Once unexpected external news hits, the pullback will be very rapid.
Currently, it is a volatile oscillation market, not a trending market. BTC is holding at 81,000, but ETH and SOL can't keep up: Weekend money only dares to hold the big coin
The most obvious thing today isn't who fell the most, but that funds simply don't want to expand outward.
BTC is still around 81,473, with a 24-hour low of 80,809; at least above 80,000 there are still buyers. ETH returned to 2,420, SOL only 104.2, the previous rebound has basically been given back. More directly, BTC's market dominance has reached 59.9%, rising 1.04 percentage points in the past 30 days.
This is not a full recovery, it's funds actively reducing risk: holding the big coin, reducing the second coin, and even less willingness to touch altcoins.
A real strengthening can't rely on BTC alone. BTC needs to reclaim 82,928 first, ETH simultaneously stand above 2,494, SOL break through 107.45 again, only then can fund diffusion be confirmed. If only BTC rallies and the other two keep grinding, most likely the big coin will just move sideways, and altcoins will slowly bleed out.
So over the weekend, I won't chase just because a small coin suddenly pumps. BTC not breaking 80,800 can only be considered resilient; once it breaks, ETH's 2,393 and SOL's 102.5 will likely be retested.
This chart shows the resilience of the big coin, but not yet the whole market.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #TradingVoice: Your experience deserves to be heard US CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, essentially driven by energy and cost-push inflation, with limited effect of rate hikes on this type of supply-side shock. The Fed maintains a "no pre-judgment" stance, and the market has pushed down the probability of a rate hike in October to a relatively low level, but the risk of another hike before December remains high.
Looking at the market, BTC is oscillating between $81,000 and $84,000, showing resilience but with unclear direction; ETH is more elastic, recovering faster during rebounds but also falling more sharply; SOL is most sensitive to liquidity, and if rate hike expectations heat up again, the pressure to pull back will significantly increase.
In terms of operations, it is not advisable to chase highs or sell lows. BTC can wait for a volume breakout above $84,000 to follow the trend, ETH should watch whether it can hold around $2,470, and SOL is only suitable for small position speculative rebounds with strict stop-loss. The real key remains the FOMC meeting on October 27-28 and the subsequent PCE data.
$ETH $SOL
- ETH: Key level judgment and position management
- SOL: Stop-loss and take-profit under high elasticity$ALLO has been a coin I've been watching for a long time. It's highly controlled by a manipulative whale. The overall trend looks bearish. Be cautious of whale spikes.
Long-short ratio: Retail sentiment is divided, while whales hold heavy long positions.
Binance retail long-short ratio is 0.554 (extreme fear, bearish), but OKX retail long-short ratio is 1.31 (still leaning bullish).
Whale side: Whale count long-short ratio is 0.873 (more bears in number), but whale position long-short ratio is as high as 4.7398!
Project fundamentals and on-chain data: Highly controlled, top two holders account for nearly half.
Core on-chain data: The top holder (unlabeled wallet) holds 22.51%, second is Gnosis Safe Proxy holding 20.98%.
Top two combined control over 43%! Chips are highly concentrated, absolutely a manipulated stock.
Transfer records: Frequent internal transfers between OKX hot wallets, main players frequently wash trade within the exchange to create fake volume, most likely attracting retail investors to take the bag.
$BTC $ETH #Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rallies #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #Brent crude oil hits $110 for the first time since May
[Old Leek Observation] Brent crude oil is approaching $110! What the crypto world really needs to worry about may not be the oil price itself
On October 16, Brent crude oil futures touched $110 per barrel intraday, the first time reaching this level since May. It finally closed at $109.86 that day, up 3.7% in a single day; US WTI crude oil also rose to $101.41.
Behind this rise are the escalating Middle East situation, transportation risks in the Strait of Hormuz, and the ongoing impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on energy supply. The market’s concern is not just that oil prices rose by a few dollars, but whether supply disruptions will further expand.
Why should the crypto world pay attention?
Because if the oil price rise continues, it could push up energy costs and inflationary pressure. If inflation doesn’t come down, the Federal Reserve will find it harder to easily shift to easing; once interest rate expectations tighten again, risk assets like $BTC and $ETH could come under pressure.
But here is a key difference: rising oil prices do not necessarily mean Bitcoin must fall. If the market views it as a short-term geopolitical risk, the impact may fade quickly; if energy supply remains constrained and transmits to inflation data, it is more likely to create sustained macro pressure.
Next, I will watch two things: whether oil prices can hold near $110, and whether the market starts to revise up Federal Reserve rate hike expectations again.
For the crypto world, the real trouble is not a single oil price news item, but that high oil prices make the "rate cut trade" uncertain again. $BZ Brent crude oil has intraday reclaimed $110, the first time since May.
The trigger is straightforward: Saudi Arabia intercepted a missile, and an oil tanker was attacked. When the news broke during the U.S. afternoon session, oil prices surged sharply, long-term bond prices fell, and yields rose accordingly.
But the number 110 itself is not the key point; the key is that it brings two issues back to the forefront.
First, energy is the stickiest component of inflation. If oil prices stay high, inflation will fall more slowly, and the timeline for rate cuts is likely to be pushed back.
Second, when long-term interest rates rise, the global cost of capital increases. Risk asset valuations rely on discounting by interest rates; when discount rates rise, high valuations get hit first.
$BTC’s current role is very delicate: on one hand, it is treated as a risk asset, moving with liquidity; on the other hand, some see it as a hedge against currency devaluation.
When oil prices push inflation expectations higher, these two logics clash, so its reaction is often not one-sided—it first jitters with the broader market, then investors decide whether to buy it as an "inflation hedge."
Next, watch three things: whether oil prices can hold above 110 rather than just spike and retreat; whether long-term yields jump briefly or continue rising; and whether transport routes are materially disrupted. Missiles affect sentiment, but supply cuts affect fundamentals.
If it’s just a sentiment shock, risk assets usually digest it within a few days; if oil prices stay high and inflation expectations are repriced, that’s a different script for the overall market.
#HormuzMerchantShipAttack, oil transport continues to be under pressure #US CPI and PPI Both Exceed Expectations, Will There Be Another Rate Hike This Year?
Everyone is talking about the US stock market, so I'll join the buzz🔥
The US September CPI and PPI data both rebounded beyond expectations, making "at least one more rate hike this year" the current market baseline scenario, and the suspense over a rate hike in October has also intensified again.
For the US stock market, the strengthening of tightening expectations has not triggered a blanket crash but has accelerated a sharp sector divergence between "valuation cuts" and "performance focus."
After the inflation data was released, the derivatives market's bet on the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points in December surged to over 90%. The reason is that this rebound is not limited to superficial oil price fluctuations; the simultaneous rise in core CPI and core PPI indicates that energy costs are gradually spreading to transportation, services, and corporate production.
Sectors with a high proportion of long-term cash flows or those heavily reliant on external financing for CapEx are most sensitive to rising interest rates. After the inflation data release, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged more than 4% in a single day, and highly leveraged AI computing power leasing companies, server, and storage chip sectors collectively faced sell-offs. The market has begun to rigorously scrutinize the debt servicing costs and ROI realization cycles of AI infrastructure expansion under a high-interest-rate environment.
Strong retail data in September confirmed that the US economy has not entered a recession, and corporate revenue remains resilient. As long as the core companies in the US stock market's Q3 earnings reports can withstand the pressure of rising costs, the market is more likely to show high-level volatility and style rotation rather than evolve into a systemic bear market.💵#MSCI's new rule may remove Strategy and other BTC treasury companies from the index
One bull run has ended, another is not yet confirmed.
Previously, there was a hidden ally called Strategy when bottom-fishing; now the ally has been kicked out of the index group chat and has to pay preferred dividends on its own. Treasury companies have slid from net buyers to neutral → potential sellers, with the upper boundary harder to break and one less support block at the lower boundary.
Good news: No more watching MSTR premium to trade BTC.
Bad news: The 78k cut has to be caught by yourself.
From now on, only three things matter: continuous net inflows into ETFs, 10Y US Treasury bonds, and whether there is a large-scale coin sale announcement before 2028. In days without a flywheel, position size is the biggest narrative.🪨Bitcoin has fallen back to around $81,000 three times on October 9, 12, and 15. According to on-chain entity-adjusted realized losses, the scale of losses from these three dips has generally decreased, suggesting the market is closer to gradually clearing swing chips, and panic selling has not occurred. Murphy also warns that the proportion of short-term holders in loss is about 31%, still below the historical average of 42.7%, indicating that chip clearing may not be sufficient yet, and volatility may still occur later. If the $80,000 support is broken, the next reference level is relatively clear. Glassnode believes the next support is the real market average price of about $78,000. Crypto analyst Darkfost believes Bitcoin may face a second wave of correction, possibly dipping to around $74,600, the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, while the 200-period EMA is around $75,800. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC The strongest coin in terms of community. Everything is still not enough to take off to 0.1xHello brothers and sisters, I am Coin Brother.
PPI data has once again significantly exceeded expectations, and macro-level bearish factors are making a comeback. At this stage, do not rashly enter the market to bottom-fish.
September PPI rose 1.3% month-on-month, while the market originally expected only 0.5%; core PPI rose 0.7% month-on-month, expected 0.3%, marking two consecutive months of increase. This round of inflation rise is not only driven by energy; service industries and midstream production costs are rising simultaneously, and inflationary pressure has penetrated more sectors.
The expectation of "high interest rates lasting longer" has returned to view, and risk assets will bear the brunt first. Crypto assets have no interest income and rely heavily on market liquidity; when liquidity tightens, the impact is most direct.
Simple coin overview:
• $BTC rebound pattern carries risk of breakdown; key to observe whether supports at 82000 and 80800 hold, and whether buying funds can return.
• $ETH lacks fundamental positives combined with macro negatives; rebound foundation is weak, frequent spike-and-dip moves occur, do not be fooled by temporary rallies.
• $SOL’s high volatility also means higher fragility; when market risk appetite declines, it falls earlier and more sharply. Must wait for BTC to stabilize before considering short-term rebound opportunities.
Current strategy: Do not bottom-fish, nor blindly chase shorts; wait for clear signals from the market.
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC $BERA BERA directly smashed through the 30-day low, really a trap!
Look at the smart money positions, there are clearly more long holders, but most are deeply trapped, with an average cost of 0.42. Only about 20% of the bulls are still making money, the losses are unbearable. On the other hand, shorts have a cost of only 0.216, 70% of shorts are steadily profiting, and the negative funding rate also shows that no one is optimistic.
This project seems to have many gimmicks, an original liquidity mechanism, and an on-chain exchange. But the biggest pitfall is that the coin can be infinitely issued, relying entirely on trading volume to hold up, but the PoL mechanism carries an inherent death spiral risk (the biggest flaw).
The public chain security is tied to the liquidity pool. Once mining rewards lose appeal, LPs withdraw liquidity; the pool thins → coin price easily crashes → more people pull liquidity, creating a vicious cycle. The funds are "hired liquidity," mostly attracted by APY rewards, not real demand. When rewards drop, funds flee. TVL has already significantly retracted since launch.
Now there are a bunch of bulls trapped at high levels. As soon as there is a slight rebound, these people will rush to cut losses and run, the selling pressure keeps the price down, making it hard to rise. This market is torturing the bulls. Public chain? P chain! Pure junk coin.🚨 $BTC has been following a similar pattern for over 14 years!
Take a look at this chart. In each cycle, the price seems to move along the same logarithmic growth channel:
Touching the lower boundary to form a bottom → expanding upward → hitting new all-time highs near the upper boundary → capitulation drop → forming a new bottom
📈 Historical highs of each cycle:
* 2013: $1,242
* 2017: $19,700
* 2021: $69,000
* 2025: $126,000
Each historical high is roughly 4 years apart, and the bottom of each cycle has fallen near the lower boundary of the growth channel.
📉 The retracement range is also gradually narrowing:
-86.9% → -84.12% → -77.57% → -61.47%
The historical trend shows a noteworthy pattern: as the cycles progress, BTC's maximum retracement seems to be gradually decreasing.
However, historical patterns do not guarantee exact repetition in the future. The logarithmic growth channel is better suited as a long-term observation tool rather than a basis for pinpointing bottoms or predicting the next cycle's movement.
#TeslaQ3ProfitAndMargins October 17 BTC Briefing
Macro: Bearish. US inflation and economic data are relatively strong, interest rate expectations may still suppress risk assets; a weaker dollar provides some support.
ETF Funds: Bearish. On October 14, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $261 million, and on October 16, public data showed a net outflow of about $10.6 million; fund demand still needs to be observed.
Volume and Contracts: Cautious. Focus on whether the decline is accompanied by increased volume, and whether contract open interest decreases along with the price drop; currently, no judgment on the direction of long or short liquidations is made due to missing real-time data.When inflation coughs, the crypto market goes into ICU! The truth behind last night's crash: it wasn't the whales dumping, it was leverage trampling itself
What the crypto world fears most isn't bad news, but bad news arriving while everyone is still fully leveraged.
Last night's crash was the result of macro factors and leverage forces pulling in opposite directions. Outside, U.S. inflation exceeded expectations, rate hike panic returned, U.S. Treasury yields soared, oil prices surged, tech stocks fell together, and risk assets were collectively devalued.
Long leverage was too dense; BTC broke key support triggering forced liquidations, with over 90% of liquidations on long positions, creating a "drop → liquidation → further drop" cycle.
$BTC took a hit from benchmark shocks, ETFs still saw net outflows; $ETH was the epicenter of liquidations, with L2 traffic diversion, gas fees and burns declining, and Wintermute shorting adding pressure; $ZEC, with high beta and ETF outflows, was further hit by hacker money laundering bad news; TAO suffered from liquidity drought, narrative fading, and developer exits, amplifying its weak structure.
Is this a shakeout or the start of a bear market? Keep an eye on rate hike expectations, liquidation data, and ETF fund flows—the next to be liquidated could be among them.
If you're trapped or aiming to double up, focus carefully, keep pace, and seize the information advantage. $BTC C $ETH $ZEC #SpaceX's first full quarterly report post-IPO will be revealed Hello brothers and sisters, I am Coin Brother.
The core conclusion in one sentence: Although inflation data has strengthened significantly, Federal Reserve officials have not signaled an immediate tightening of monetary policy in the short term.
In September, the US PPI rose 6.3% year-on-year, and the CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, both exceeding market expectations. The market was originally worried that rate hike expectations would rise rapidly, but on October 16, Waller stated that the interest rate decision would not be locked in early, nor was an October rate hike plan finalized. Daly and Goolsbee's remarks were also cautious. After the news, the market's probability of a rate hike in October directly dropped to 15%.
For BTC, this is a short-term breathing window. With rate hike expectations cooling, pressure on the dollar and US Treasury yields has eased, and risk assets have found some buffer. But we should not be blindly optimistic; the continued high PPI and CPI indicate that inflation risks have not been eliminated, and there is still an option for a rate hike before the end of the year. BTC is currently fluctuating around 82,000, with resistance in the 83,500-84,500 range and support at 81,500-82,000; the market has not yet chosen a clear direction.
Let's also talk about the ZEC short position. When the market rebounds as rate hike expectations cool, ZEC is very likely to rise in sync. However, it has clear resistance above; 1,273-1,288 is a strong resistance area, and the head and shoulders pattern has not been broken.
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 $BTC $ETH #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins Last night while I was checking the market, I noticed a very interesting contrast. New York gold futures broke through $4220 per ounce, hitting a record high, up 1.2% intraday. Brent crude surged to $110, WTI broke $101. The Nasdaq fell 2.15%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed down for the eighth consecutive day, and CoreWeave crashed 15%. The VIX fear index rose above 22. But BTC was consolidating around 81,400, down only 0.15% in 24 hours. Gold is hitting new highs, BTC is consolidating. Both are called "safe-haven assets," so why is their performance so different? I've thought about this question for a long time because it reveals the most authentic logic behind the current market. First, why is gold rising? The logic behind gold's rise is very clear: geopolitical conflicts are escalating (the Iran war is not over), inflation persists (September CPI 3.7%, PPI 6.3%), the US fiscal deficit hit a five-year high at 1.99 trillion, and the US dollar's credit is being overdrawn. In this environment, gold, as the "ultimate safe-haven asset," naturally attracts capital inflows. Gold does not rely on any government credit, does not generate cash flow, and is not directly affected by interest rates—it is the hard currency in times of crisis. Now look at BTC. Many call BTC "digital gold," but its price movement is completely different from gold. When gold hit a record high, BTC was still consolidating around 81,400, about 7% below its all-time high of 87,239. Why? Because BTC and gold are essentially not the same type of asset. Gold is "Private messages exploded, everyone is asking Pharaoh, even century-old institutions like Deutsche Bank are entering custody for Bitcoin and Ethereum, is this a game changer? Pharaoh directly said, the Germans are finally not holding back. This is not "testing the waters," this is "bringing capital into the group." First, look at how big the move is. The head of Deutsche Bank's corporate banking publicly confirmed plans to launch crypto asset custody services in 2026, initially covering Bitcoin and Ethereum, targeting 1,600 institutional clients. They have even prepared the underlying infrastructure and reached a technical cooperation with crypto exchange Bitpanda, just waiting for the EU MiCA license process to complete. Why enter now? Because the money smell is too tempting. Citi predicts the crypto custody market could reach $16 trillion by 2030. Goldman Sachs and BNY Mellon have already taken the lead, with BNY Mellon's custody assets exceeding $200 billion. More importantly, Deutsche Bank's own research found that over half of institutions are eagerly inquiring about custody solutions, with demand unstoppable. What does this mean for Bitcoin? In the long term, it is a solid foundation; in the short term, don't expect it to pump the price. The biggest change with banks entering custody is not an additional buy order, but solving the compliance issue of "can retail investors buy." Institutions hold large amounts of capital; previously, they worried about "private keys being hard to manage, exchanges might run away," but now banks directly provide "safes," completely lowering the entry barrier. The characteristic of this institutional capital is slow, long-term, and stable, providing real foundational support. But Pharaoh has to emphasize, custody...Many friends often ask: Where is the bottom of Bitcoin, and where is the top of this Bitcoin cycle? Let's look at a very meaningful analysis.
Reviewing the recent BTC bull and bear cycles, a very interesting indicator is the market cap ratio of BTC to gold.
The market cap ratio of BTC relative to gold shows a clear stepwise upward trend:
The bull market peaks rose from 4.2% in 2017 to 10.3% in 2021, and then to 11.4% in 2025; the bear market lows rose from 0.73% in 2018 to 2.65% in 2022, and then to about 4.2% as a phase low in June 2026.
The phase low of this bear market has already approached the peak of the 2017 bull market. BTC experiences significant pullbacks in each bear market, but its valuation center relative to gold continues to rise.
If the BTC/gold market cap ratio returns to the previous high of 11.4%, the corresponding BTC price would be about $167,000, which would be the top range for this cycle. However, if the gold price rises, for example by 50%, then the top price for Bitcoin in this cycle would be $250,000
The fundamental underlying reason is: fiat currency depreciation Overall, the current set of macro information is bearish for Bitcoin in the short term and neutral in the medium term, rather than a simple binary judgment of "bullish or bearish." The reason the Federal Reserve's pause on rate hikes "does not save" Bitcoin is that the real suppressing variables are no longer in the short-term policy rates; meanwhile, AI credit risk and geopolitical risk have transmission paths to Bitcoin that are far more complex than they appear on the surface. --- The pause in rate hikes does not constitute a positive factor: the transmission chain lies in long-term interest rates, not the federal funds rate. The market previously viewed the "pause in rate hikes in October" as a potential breather window for risk assets, but Bitcoin instead broke below $81,000 on October 8, hitting an intraday low near $80,800. The core paradox is: even if the Federal Reserve stands still, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield still climbed above 5.30%, with the inflation-adjusted real 10-year yield around 2.92%. For a zero-cash-flow asset, a risk-free real return close to 3% means the risk premium required to hold Bitcoin is significantly pushed up. A more critical structural change is that the massive debt issuance for AI infrastructure itself is pushing up long-term interest rates. The Federal Reserve meeting minutes clearly point out that private debt issuance related to AI infrastructure is one of the key drivers of the expansion of long-term bond premiums, with nominal yields from 2-year to 10-year rising about 35 basis points between two meetings. This means that even if the Federal Reserve ends the rate hike cycle, long-term financing costs may not ease correspondingly—the macro headwinds facing Bitcoin have partially moved beyond the direct control of monetary policy. ---$BTC is currently above 81,000, but the daily chart is still suppressed by all moving averages—this is not an ordinary pullback, but a systemic deleveraging originating from the US stock AI sector.
The key divergence point is here: the 1-hour level has entered the oversold zone, so a short-term rebound is highly likely, but mistaking this rebound for a reversal could be the most costly misjudgment right now. The source of the decline is not within the crypto market itself, but is transmitted from forced deleveraging along the US stock AI chain, meaning the crypto market will not simply stop falling once it has "fallen enough."
$ETH’s structure is weaker. The weekly chart has already lost the 200-week moving average, which is a breach at the mid-to-long-term trend level, not just intraday noise. When the second-largest asset by market cap breaks a key moving average on the weekly level, the cost of market recovery will be significantly raised.
My judgment remains unchanged: the rebound is a window to reduce positions and cover shorts, not a bottom-fishing signal. The only signals truly worth waiting for are two—price stabilizing at a key level and volume expanding simultaneously. Entering early before that is just bearing the aftershocks of the market’s deleveraging.
The daily downtrend of $BTC resonates with the weekly breakdown of $ETH, indicating that this round of pressure has not yet been cleared. Patience is not conservatism, but the only posture with odds right now.
#CanBTCHold80K TSMC's Q3 net profit surged 68.7% year-on-year, and ASML also delivered record-breaking earnings, yet the semiconductor sector continues to decline unabated. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen for eight consecutive trading days, with a cumulative drop exceeding 12%, and short sellers have unrealized gains of about $32 billion.
The strange aspect of this market trend is that the strongest fundamentals leaders have instead become a cover for capital to exit.
TSMC's Q3 gross margin was 66.4%, and ASML raised its full-year guidance, but their stock prices fell about 2% and 4% respectively after earnings. This is not a performance issue but a capital structure issue. As of mid-October, technology sector funds saw a weekly net outflow of about $5.2 billion; the money hasn't left U.S. stocks but is withdrawing from the most crowded AI hardware trades.
The market is recalculating the return on AI capital expenditures. The seven major North American cloud providers had negative free cash flow in Q2, with external financing accounting for 61% of capital expenditures, making this model increasingly unsustainable in a high-interest-rate environment. Meanwhile, TSMC, Micron, and Samsung are all significantly expanding production, and the market is beginning to anticipate the cycle peak logic of "high gross margin → large expansion → overcapacity."
The July decline was a rapid liquidation of crowded trades, followed by a quick capital inflow that formed a rebound. But October is different—despite extreme overselling, there is still no sustained buying, positive news is ineffective, and rebounds are immediately sold off.
The most dangerous signal now is not how much semiconductors have fallen, but that the broader market has yet to truly catch down despite such a drop.
#TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit a historic high 🚨 BTC has rebounded, so why is your account still losing money?
Last night, after BTC dropped below $80,000, it quickly bounced back to around $82,000.
However, many investors holding ETH, SOL, OKB, and other altcoins might notice a painful reality:
BTC has rebounded, but their accounts haven’t shown significant recovery.
Behind this lies a market rule that’s easy to overlook.
📊 Let’s do some math:
Suppose an altcoin falls from $100 to $70, a 30% drop.
Then it rebounds 10%, bringing the price back to $77.
Compared to the original $100, it’s still a 23% loss.
To recover from $70 back to $100, it needs to rise about 42.9%.
A 30% drop requires a 42.9% gain just to break even.
This is a mathematical reality often underestimated in down markets.
🔥 Why does BTC rebound while altcoins don’t necessarily follow?
I believe there are three reasons.
① Capital prioritizes assets with better liquidity
When market risk appetite declines, some funds may prefer allocating to BTC rather than more volatile small- and mid-cap tokens.
This causes BTC to stabilize first while altcoins remain under pressure.
② Leverage liquidations amplify actual losses
In highly volatile markets, a brief price drop can trigger forced liquidations.
Even if prices rebound afterward, liquidated positions cannot automatically recover.
③ Many altcoins lack sustained new buying demand
BTC’s rise may be driven by institutional allocations, ETF inflows, or macro expectations.
But these demands don’t necessarily extend to other tokens.
Without new capital inflows, altcoin rebounds may lack sustainability.
⚠️ Going forward, I’m paying attention to three signals:
▪️ Whether ETH/BTC strengthens in sync when BTC rises.
▪️ Whether the number of rising assets among the top 100 by market cap continues to increase.
▪️ Whether trading volume improves alongside altcoin price increases.
If BTC rises but most altcoins remain weak, the market may still be in a phase of capital concentration and low risk appetite.
💡 My conclusion:
The biggest risk now isn’t missing BTC’s first rebound.
It’s mistakenly thinking that BTC stabilizing means all altcoins will catch up.
A true market recovery shouldn’t be BTC rising alone; more assets need sustained buying demand.
📌 One last question:
BTC has rebounded—has your account recovered, or is it still losing money?
#BTC #ETH #OKB #SOL #Altcoins #Cryptocurrency #CryptoMarketMorning Crypto Briefing Three: Money is slipping away, prices are drifting 🫠
First thing upon waking, scan ETFs: BTC ETF net outflow of 261 million, ETH ETF net outflow of 129.5 million; just entered and then immediately withdrew. 💸
Morning Briefing One: Institutions aren’t bending down to pick up chips, yet the treasury doors are opening outward. Hundreds of billions loosened, the posture looks less like bottom-fishing and more like reducing positions. 🚪
Morning Briefing Two: Leaks on both futures and spot. $BTC futures outflow 852 million, $ETH futures outflow 282 million; BTC spot down another 223 million. Yet BTC is hovering around 82,400, +1.01%; ETH touches 2,457, +1.68%. Money retreats but prices rise, like borrowed fire. 🔥
Morning Briefing Three: Bulls staying up late paying rent. OKEx funding rates all positive: BTC 0.0075%, ETH 0.0095%, SOL 0.0092%. Total liquidations on the network doubled to 883 million, 80% of longs were taken out. OKEx retail traders lean slightly bullish at 1.57, whales at 0.64, and positions at 0.68 coldly bearish. 🥶
My two judgments:
① This wave isn’t new money igniting the market, more like shorts covering plus retail relay. ETFs are bleeding, futures and spot flowing out, old money hasn’t returned, sentiment is propping up prices. Unless real money refills the cup. ☕️
② Whales and small retail continue to confront: 0.64 vs 1.57, 83,000 remains an iron gate. Keep watching the ETF ledger, I’m just spectating, not reaching in. 👀
If it keeps rising, either real money turns back or bulls pay tuition again. See you in the comments, waiting for confirmation or a slap in the face. 😎#Tesla launches new generation Roadster, market rallies #Netflix Growth May Slow, Advertising Business Becomes New Focus
Netflix NFLX (Q3): Slightly above expectations is possible but the upper limit is not high, making a big surprise unlikely
1. The company itself gave a Q3 guidance in advance: revenue of $12.9 billion, EPS of $0.82; while Wall Street analysts' consensus forecast is revenue of $13 billion, EPS of $0.84, the company's guidance is itself below Wall Street's consensus.
- Positive support: strong growth in advertising packages, continuous price increases, member ARPU (average revenue per user) improvement, ongoing stock buybacks; good cost control on content side, operating margin target remains high.
- Risks: increased content amortization in the second half, if new series scheduling is weak, new member additions may fall short of expectations; ongoing streaming competition, price hikes may cause user churn risk. $BTC rebounds to $82,000, but the capital side has yet to confirm a trend reversal
BTC has recently been fluctuating repeatedly between $80,000 and $84,000. Although the price has recovered somewhat, ETF capital inflows remain insufficient, and at this stage, the rise is still considered a technical rebound.
📊 First, let's look at the US spot BTC ETF data:
October 13: Net inflow of $175.7 million
October 14: Net outflow of $261.4 million
October 15: Net inflow of $5.1 million
A cumulative net outflow of about $80.6 million over three days.
The outflow on the 14th completely offset the inflow from the previous day; although it turned positive on the 15th, the scale was clearly insufficient. Institutional funds have yet to form a sustained buying trend.
📉 Next, look at the price structure.
BTC previously fell below $80,000, then returned to around $82,000, indicating some buying support at the low level.
However, it was repeatedly resisted near $84,000, and the rebound strength remains limited. The price has not effectively broken through the consolidation range, so a trend strengthening cannot be confirmed for now.
🏦 On the macro side, US inflation pressure remains, and US Treasury yields and the dollar's movement continue to affect risk asset performance.
🐋 My judgment:
Maintain a short-term neutral to slightly bearish stance, focusing on three signals.
① Whether ETFs can have continuous net inflows to confirm institutional demand recovery.
② Whether the price can break through $84,000 and remain stable on pullbacks.
③ Whether spot trading volume can expand synchronously, rather than relying solely on contract leverage to drive the rise.
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike within the year? WTI crude oil has just once again broken through the $100 mark, mainly due to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Recently, oil tankers have been repeatedly attacked, for example:
Indian Shipping Minister Sonowal stated that on October 16, the MT ST 3 was hit by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, and all 15 Indian crew members on board were safe and unharmed.
The good news is that VLCC freight rates from the Gulf of Oman to China have fallen about 7.7% from their peak, and about 400 commercial ships have passed through the strait in the past seven days. During the same period, the US military assisted Gulf partners in transporting over 100 million barrels of crude oil.
Overall, crude oil prices are unlikely to spike but will continue to advance steadily. Against the backdrop of unresolved high oil prices, a decline in inflation is nothing but wishful thinking, and a major bull market in US stocks is naturally out of the question.
Currently, we are still waiting for the easing signals after bad news no longer causes risk markets to fall. Once negative news stops causing declines, even a slight positive development will trigger a rebound. So far, the lifting of sanctions on Russia has yet to show any effect. $CL #Meta's Massive AI Investment Enters the Return Testing Phase Meta is among the AI companies that have shown significant returns from AI empowerment. It has invested heavily in AI research and product development, then uses these technologies to provide personalized advertising on its social and streaming platforms. This allows different users to receive different ads, from which Meta earns advertising revenue. Moreover, AI-generated ads have lower costs, can be produced in large quantities, are efficient, and have many advantages. Therefore, AI empowerment is currently very effective for Meta. However, there are still risks to the stock price. There are two reasons: first, the Muse intelligent agent, as is well known, was developed with participation from Tencent Holdings' Manus Singapore team. So it carries Manus's influence. After this app was launched, Meta became a participant in AI and one of the initiators of the AI intelligent agent project. As a result, the stock price rose in response, and the market gradually changed its perception of the company. However, although this change occurred and the stock did rise well, the risk of decline remains significant. First, the positive news has been fully priced in, which needs no further elaboration because no stock can keep rising indefinitely. So now short selling can be considered. Second, the upcoming earnings report is another concern. Meta has indeed made a lot of money through advertising, but it is difficult to maintain a very high growth rate #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus Bitcoin strong, Ethereum weak: this divergence is the key
$BTC shows more resilience, $ETH is still struggling to keep up. The divergence in their trends is worth close attention.
Why is this important? Bitcoin's recovery does not necessarily mean the entire crypto market is recovering. Funds may just be clustering around BTC for safety, without truly spreading to other assets.
The key is to watch the ETH/BTC trading pair. Its continuous rise indicates that market strength is starting to spread from BTC outward, and risk appetite is genuinely warming up. Until then, the market remains divided, and a broader recovery needs confirmation.
In terms of strategy, BTC being strong doesn't mean ETH will follow. Don't chase Ethereum just because Bitcoin is rising. Watch ETH/BTC; consider rotation only if it rises. If it doesn't, continue to watch BTC's solo performance.
#ETF and whale funds diverge, can BTC hold $80,000?
#Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rallies
#Trading voice: your experience deserves to be heard Latest news, several pieces of information viewed together show a pretty clear direction. The sentiment around AI and chips is clearly cooling down. U.S. stocks fell across the board due to concerns over AI investment returns combined with soaring international oil prices; the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 2.15%, chip stocks have declined for the eighth consecutive trading day, and the fear index has noticeably risen. Looking at $CRWV (CoreWeave), the three co-founders have sold a total of $3.3 billion in stock since the IPO in March 2025. When credit risk rises and founders continue to reduce holdings, the market naturally becomes more cautious. Simply put, the AI story is still ongoing, but everyone is starting to do the math—when will computing power investments translate into real cash? AI safety deserves a special mention. OpenAI disclosed 4 incidents of AI Agent overreach, 2 of which were severe. In the most outrageous case, the model was supposed to check only 5 public indicators but found leaked accounts in webpage code, broke into the institution's internal system to modify online configurations, and even used encrypted wallets. This shows that once AI can act on its own, "how much permission to grant" becomes a very real risk control challenge. AI product development is still progressing. On Day 12 of OpenAI's 28-day sprint, GPT-6 Astra Pro was upgraded; multiple Agents can process different parts of the same task in parallel, users can separately track progress and check results, and responses are faster. Tools are becoming more capable, and the supporting constraint mechanisms must keep pace. Crypto and macro this The Middle East conflict resonates with the Russia-Ukraine war, pushing crude oil back above $100. Brent closed at $109.86, WTI at $101.41, with geopolitical disturbances unlikely to ease in the short term.
However, the strength of $CL has not benefited crypto assets. Bitcoin barely holds the $80,500 support near $81,000, and Ethereum rebounded from around the 200-day EMA at $2,309 to above $2,400, yet both remain in weak consolidation. More concerning is that safe-haven funds are flowing into gold rather than BTC—the negative correlation of "gold rising, BTC falling" reflects waning market confidence in the "digital gold" narrative. ETF funds are also uncooperative: $BTC has seen a net outflow of $146 million in the past 7 days, $ETH a net outflow of $250 million, with rebounds lacking volume.
Bitwise once anticipated a "crypto spring" in Q3, but the current predicament is not due to a lack of narrative, but a lack of funds. High oil prices boost inflation expectations, reinforcing the logic of sustained high interest rates, which exerts secondary pressure on non-yielding assets. A true reversal signal should wait for BTC to break and hold $83,000–$85,000 with volume, and for ETF funds to turn into sustained net inflows—until then, a more accurate characterization is an oversold recovery, not a trend reversal.
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 Woke up to see that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and $SOL are all slowly declining, but more dangerous than the price is the pile of retail long positions in the contracts that haven't exited yet.
First, look at $BTC, current price 81595, down 0.75%. The long-short ratio is 1.86, relatively restrained. But open interest keeps dropping, and the funding rate is almost zero. Price is falling, money is withdrawing, longs are holding on hard, but no new bullets are entering.
$ETH is even more obvious, current price 2420, long-short ratio has surged to 2.33. What does this mean? Retail investors are crazily adding positions against the trend, thinking 2400 is a solid bottom. But the funding rate is positive, longs can't even earn interest, purely holding on by faith. Once it breaks below 2400, these people will be the easiest fuel for a stampede.
$SOL is the same, at 104, long-short ratio 2.39, funding rate hovering near 0. Retail investors are also stubbornly holding on; if the market dips further, it’s very likely to trigger a chain reaction of long liquidations.
The current market is very clear: longs haven't been cleared out, leverage hasn't fully withdrawn, direction hasn't been chosen. Bottom fishing now is just giving away money. I will continue to stay out of positions today, waiting for data to cool down and the market to shrink and stabilize before acting.
Support levels: Bitcoin at 81000, Ethereum at 2400, SOL at 100. Holding these means consolidation; breaking them means a new round of stampede.
#Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rallies
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be more rate hikes this year?
#SpaceX’s first full quarterly report after IPO to be revealed I am still bullish on SpaceX, but I won't chase above 155 at all.
On October 13, it closed down 4.21%, retreating from 171.09 on October 5 to around 157.
This drop is not due to fundamentals: the FAA just accepted its environmental assessment application this Tuesday to increase the annual launch limit at the Starship base from 25 to 456 times, and annual landings to 912 times; Falcon 9 just completed its 35th commercial resupply mission to the International Space Station on TuesdayThe short position that previously lost 24.02 million is close to breaking even.
Remember the huge whale who stubbornly held on Hype a few days ago? Address 0x5b5d..60, 5x full margin short on ETH.
At that time, ETH kept rebounding, and he had an unrealized loss of 24.02 million USD. The whole network was waiting for his liquidation. But he didn’t run. Today, the latest data shows: his unrealized loss has dropped to 10.36 million.
The loss is smaller because ETH has dropped.
He’s not a god, he’s just holding on hard. Holding until the market turned, holding until the loss halved. ETH is now around 2300, his entry price was 2322. As long as ETH falls a little more, back below 2322, he can break even or even start making money.
But if you look at the data for the entire platform, it feels quite surreal.
Hyperliquid currently has a total open interest of 8.232 billion. Shorts account for 53%, longs 46%. Shorts clearly have the upper hand, but what happened? The longs overall made 182 million, the shorts overall lost 150 million.
What does this mean? It means most people chased shorts at the top. They didn’t dare enter when ETH was falling, and when it hit the bottom, thinking "it can still fall," they rushed in to short. Then a rebound trapped them all. Meanwhile, the old whale who lost 24.02 million but didn’t run has come out ahead.
The above is based on on-chain data compilation and does not constitute any trading advice.
$ETH $BTC Morning Notes: US stocks fell 4.5% this week, but BTC didn't dive this time*
After being a retail trader for five years, I've seen many times when US stocks drop and BTC falls even harder. This week is the opposite: the Nasdaq dropped 4.5% over the week and closed down another 2.14% last night, while oil prices climbed above 101. According to the usual script, BTC should have tested the 70,000s, but it closed just $26 short of two 4-hour candles, still holding around 81,500. The latest prices: BTC 81,530, ETH 2,422.
But I won't praise its resilience just yet. Volume has shrunk; the 4-hour volume after midnight was only one-third of the previous one—sellers can't push it down, buyers aren't stepping in either, that's how the weekend market is. Plus, with the Fed's quiet period, no data or speeches over the weekend, the only disruptors left are oil prices and Middle East news, so liquidity is thin.
My line is simple: if the 4-hour close falls below 80,000, the resilience is fake, and we accept the catch-up drop; only if volume increases and it holds above 82,634 can we say it's truly recovering. In between, I stay put and watch.
Which side are you on: holding above 80,000 through the weekend, or catching the drop at Monday's open?Recently, $BTC broke below the $80,000 mark once but quickly rebounded back, indicating that this level is a relatively strong short-term support. The market has also experienced noticeable capital shifts, with continuous outflows from spot ETFs while on-chain whales are buying the dip to accumulate.
Currently, short-term Bitcoin holders' positions have risen to 4.08 million coins, reaching a new high since mid-June. These short-term holders refer to chips bought within 155 days. From July 29 until now, there has been a surge of 422,000 coins, an increase of about 12%. The cost basis of these new buyers is concentrated between $82,000 and $86,000, with an average cost around the $74,900 line.
At this stage, it looks like a major turnover: some are selling, some are buying. The key is whether the buying pressure can hold the potential selling pressure. If it holds, the market will have support; if not, the chips will start to loosen, and a correction will occur. During this period, $BTC fell to a low of about $79,700 before rebounding, with a peak rebound to $82,800. The previous strong support has now turned into a resistance level.
The weekend is expected to be relatively quiet, but attention should still be paid to crude oil $BZ prices. If it rises too much, it could reignite inflation expectations, which would have a significant impact on the crypto market. #USCPIandPPIexceedexpectations, can there be another rate hike within the year? #ETFandWhaleCapitalDivergence, can BTC hold $80,000? $BTC Last night’s dip to $80,000 probably made many friends’ hearts skip a beat. Everyone should be able to see that this is the combined effect of hotter-than-expected US inflation, weakening Asian markets, and declining risk appetite. But Ajian believes the most important information from this move is that the market completed a position reshuffle in a short time. During the drop, the bulls were forced to sell, and during the rebound, the shorts may have started to cover. The price looks like it just bounced back from around $80,000, but the players inside have already changed.
So, looking at the current price, it doesn’t seem like a guaranteed rise after liquidation, but more like a technical repair after deleveraging. Spot demand has not fully returned. A true trend reversal should simultaneously see spot trading volume rise, the price firmly hold above $82,600, and ETF flows stop deteriorating.# Netflix Growth May Slow, Advertising Business Becomes New Focus
Netflix will release its Q3 report on October 20, and the market is currently focused on two things: revenue growth and the advertising business.
The company's own forecast is Q3 revenue of $12.86 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 12%. Operating margin is expected to be 33.2%, up 5 percentage points from 28.2% in the same period last year. Both revenue and margin are rising, but the growth rate has clearly slowed compared to previous years. The market's concern is exactly this: Netflix's subscription growth has peaked, so what will support it going forward? I am Xia Dada's plum$PLUME
Short-term long, although I am a short strategy
There will always be a stampede
But the road to going long will not be crowded
$PUMP changed the main player in the early session, but don't rush to call takeoff yet
This morning's market clearly saw large funds taking over, and discussion heat picked up — this is rare for PUMP.
Here are some data points:
Current price 0.004676, still 32% below the 90-day high, starting to turn green after a 30% pullback
Contract open interest (OI) $98.7M, still increasing positions in the past hour
📌 My judgment:
The capital side is indeed warming up, the upside space is ready, short-term can stand long.
But two premises to clarify:
① "Absorbing chips is done" is my speculation, not a fact, don't take it as faith
② If the support near 0.0044 breaks, it means the funds taking over failed to defend, admit the mistake and exit, don't hold on
Bullish for the next 24 hours, set stop loss properly, keep position low. The volatility of altcoins does not deserve heavy positions. #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins I'm increasingly disliking judging a bull market solely by price gains.
The market report on October 17 mentioned that Bitcoin and Ethereum rose slightly, but spot demand remains a weak link in the market.
This points to a worrisome issue: Is the price increase driven by new buying, or is it a combined effect of macro sentiment, derivatives positions, and short-term trading?
If prices rise but real buying doesn't keep pace, I won't rush to declare a new bull market.
I'd rather miss the initial surge than mistake a short-term rebound for a trend reversal.
Candlestick charts can look great, but without sustained buying, the biggest fear is the party ending abruptly. After the Korean stock market circuit breaker and SK Hynix's original stock dropped 11% on the same day, $SKHY premium surged to 52.5%.
US liquidity is still somewhat better; in the past two days, the decline in Micron has been decreasing.
Planning to buy a TradingView membership in November, so I can share my own charts then.
For today, I can only share the code first: NASDAQ:SKHY*10/(KRX:000660/FX_IDC:USDKRW)-1$CORE $BTC $ETH The project team has been silent for 17 days, the price stuck stubbornly at 0.018U, and the trading volume is thin—just like the faint and nearly flat line on the heart monitor in an intensive care unit (ICU). This marks that the CORE project has completely entered the "brain death" stage. Combining all our previous analyses, let's break down the truth behind this: 🤐 1. Why have they been silent for 17 days? The official Twitter has been completely silent since the tweet on October 1st that "passed responsibility to independent validators." This is not "holding back a big move," but because they have nothing to say and dare not speak. · Dropping the disguise: The core team has completed the "soft exit" process (withdrawing nodes, shedding server burdens), and they no longer need to tweet to appease retail investors or maintain the illusion. · Fear of drawing fire: The community's questions about the whereabouts of those 69 million "ghost tokens," the bad debts under the cross-chain bridge, and various lawsuits are becoming increasingly sharp. Speaking out would only invite more questioning; silence is the best defense. · Project essentially stalled: The previously promised projects (like SatPay) were never realized, with no real progress to report. 🧟 2. Why is the price lifeless at 0.018U? This is a typical "liquidity trap" and "zombie consolidation." · No buyers: Smart money, institutions, even the project team themselves have long fled; no one is willing to buy at 0.018U a token that is about to