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$TIA's gain yesterday was quite impressive, but a one-day increase only indicates short-term capital concentration and does not mean that the long-term supply and demand have changed. Ajian does not believe that the entire modular blockchain sector has regained long-term capital. The same applies to $EIGEN; yesterday's rise seems more like a spread from meme to infrastructure assets and is not enough to be called a sector rebound. If the market truly prefers infrastructure again1. The necessity of the SpaceX and Tesla merger lies in whether the two companies can integrate to reduce the cost of orbital data centers. Whether SpaceX's orbital data center and related business model can succeed ultimately comes down to an economic calculation. Analyst Wood Mackenzie estimates that currently, building a 1GW orbital data center costs about $170 billion, more than three times that of an equivalent-scale ground data center, with satellite and launch costs accounting for about 60%. Regardless of how many advantages orbital computing has in terms of energy, land, and grid constraints, as long as the unit computing power cost is significantly higher than ground solutions in the long term, large-scale commercialization will be difficult. So the question becomes: for producing the same unit of effective computing power, when can the full lifecycle cost of orbital deployment approach or even fall below that of ground deployment? 2. The current roadmap provided by SpaceX can be summarized into three things: reducing launch costs, improving the performance-to-power ratio of chips, and turning satellites and computing equipment into large-scale industrial products through vertical integration. Tesla happens to have the other half of the capabilities that SpaceX lacks here. In November 2025, Musk mentioned Tesla's AI5 chip in a conversation with Ron Baron. AI5 is mainly aimed at autonomous driving and Optimus inference tasks, and Musk's goal at the time was to achieve two to three times the performance per watt of Nvidia chips in these tasks US Stock Real Trading 11
As of 0:00 yesterday, QQQ dropped 1.56%, while I rose 0.16%. This week, the US stock market fell 5.52%, and I gained 2.79%, outperforming the market by over 8 points. Overall, this week has been quite good.
It's indeed not easy to make money in a bear market. The current market conditions are not suitable for being overly long. You can also refer to my position allocation: (only trading account, excluding savings) Eli Lilly 16.5%, Coca-Cola 16.5%, SK Hynix (short) 16.5%, S&P 33%, U33%. I even sold off TSMC, planning to buy it back when it drops to a better level. Overall, this is a very conservative approach. It's a pity about Eli Lilly and Coca-Cola because of historical reasons (you can refer to my US Stock Real Trading Issue 6 post), which led to very low positions previously. I didn't plan to adjust the positions later, so these two stocks rose 10 points this week, and I missed out. I only added to the positions at 7 PM last night, missing out on a lot.
That's about it overall. Have a great weekend everyone! Bro, the direction this wave took was right, but now is the profit protection phase, not the excitement phase. Unrealized gains are not profits; only closing the position counts.
Coin Entry Price Current Price ROI Key Levels/Recommendations
BTC 81744.3 81666.49 +1.90% Just broke even, signal is more important than amount; move stop loss slightly above 81750–81850, if it breaks below 80,500, take partial profits, target 80,000
ETH 2449.21 2422.83 +21.57% Strongest position, but 2400 is only about 0.95% from current price; recommend partial profit-taking near 2400, move stop loss above entry price, then try for 2380/2350 with remaining position
DOGE 0.08131 0.08075 +13.73% Move stop loss slightly above 0.0813; take partial profits between 0.0795–0.078, don’t wait to sell all at 0.078
Total unrealized gains about 18.86U, all three positions short in the same direction with high correlation, diversification is false diversification, one rebound will cause simultaneous pullback. The three most important things to do now:
1. Move all stop losses to break-even: BTC just turned positive, easiest to get stopped out by a sudden spike; ETH/DOGE already have profits, at least push stop loss slightly above entry price.
2. Take profits in batches, don’t be greedy for the last bit: ETH at 2400, DOGE at 0.0795–0.078, BTC at 80,500–80,$TIA has surged crazily these past two days
It rose 23% in a single day and accumulated 83% over four weeks. Among altcoins, it is the brightest star
The actual data stored on the Celestia network hasn't kept up. On October 16, the blob size was 2.01 billion bytes, even less than 2.05 billion on the 15th
What’s really moving is leverage; $TIA futures open interest rose 55% in 24 hours, faster than the price increase
The volume forced buy-in by shorts is very small, less than $2 million per token
In other words, the buying pressure from short squeezes is limited; the main driver of the surge in open interest is new futures bets
⚠️⚠️⚠️ Altcoins now account for more than Bitcoin in open interest, reaching 41.4%
A similar crossover occurred in December 2024, after which altcoins dropped 44.3% in 90 days‼️❕
Price is running ahead of data, leverage is running ahead of price. This structure feels great when rising but turns quickly at the turning point
#TIA1. Your liquidation strategy (concise Chinese version)
ETH and SOL are both fully leveraged 50x long positions, sharing margin and compounding risk. Plan:
1. If there is a rebound, handle ETH first — it has the heaviest loss; reduce in batches near the entry price to relieve the greatest pressure first.
2. For SOL, reduce gradually when the rebound approaches the entry price.
3. If the market continues to fall unilaterally, do not stubbornly hold — prioritize closing ETH to reduce the overall long exposure of the account.
Reflection: Multiple coins in the same direction + 50x full leverage concentrates risk highly; reversals cause fast and severe drawdowns. Avoid heavy same-direction multi-coin positions in the future, lower leverage, and keep risk within a manageable range.
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2. Considering recent macro conditions: your "priority to reduce ETH" logic is supported in the current environment, but pay attention to timing
September CPI year-on-year 3.7% (expected 3.6%), PPI year-on-year 6.3% (far exceeding expectations, highest since December 2022), core CPI month-on-month steady at 0.3% for two consecutive months. The probability of a rate hike before year-end once approached 90%; after CPI, the October hike probability jumped from about 20% to around 50%, then fell back to about 30%, but the December hike pricing remains "firmly locked in." In the dot plot, 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more rate hike this year; none expect a rate cut.
This means for your positions: high interest rates will be maintained longer → risk assets (including ETH, SOL$DOGE #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
$BTC #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓
$ETH #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
Those hoarding Dogecoin hoping to get rich quick are "fools."
From the perspective of data and market capitalization, it's almost impossible for Dogecoin to rise to 8 dollars, at least under the current token mechanism and market scale, which is an extremely low-probability event.
In other words, even if it rises to 1 dollar, the market cap would have to exceed 150 billion dollars; to reach 8 dollars, a massive amount of global funds would need to continuously flow in and be locked in DOGE for the long term. Meanwhile, DOGE has no yield, no interest, no scarcity cap, and is continuously issued every year, so holders have no natural incentive to lock their coins long-term.
Currently, more optimistic analyses believe DOGE could reach 0.30-1 dollar in a strong bull market, with only a very few extremely optimistic views mentioning higher targets. But 8 dollars is not within the mainstream analysis framework and is more like a "dream price" in community sentiment. #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus 看BTC，不只看BTC
市场越不确定，Bitcoin主导率越像一支情绪温度计。风险偏好收缩时，资金往往先涌向流动性最好、共识最强的资产，BTC因此成为临时避风港，而山寨币则承受更明显的抛压。
但要注意：BTC企稳并不等于全场安全。如果BTC横盘稳住，山寨币却持续走弱，这更像资金在防御性抱团，而不是广泛风险承担回归。此时市场偏好的是“相对安全”，不是“全面进攻”。
真正的复苏，不能只看BTC是否坚挺，还要看力量能否外溢。山寨币成交量、链上活跃度、板块轮动是否改善，市场总市值能否在主导率回落时抬升，才是扩散信号。
所以，短期用BTC主导率读情绪，长期用资金扩散验复苏。别把BTC的稳定，误读为整个市场的春天。$BTC
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 123The current market situation is like fire and ice! Big Brother Maji's hedge position worth 50 million has been disclosed, with both long and short layouts, and the account profits show extreme divergence. The scene of large investors' long-term game is very shocking.
Detailed breakdown of three sets of positions
① BTC short｜40x full position
Holding -243.96 BTC, position market value 20,039,500 U
Entry price 84070.0
Unrealized profit 470,700 U, funding fee income 68,400 U
Margin 501,000 U, liquidation price 104583.12
This position continuously brings positive returns and is the safety base of the entire hedge portfolio.
② ETH long｜25x full position
Holding 7223.81 ETH, position market value 17,736,600 U
Entry price 2500.18
Unrealized loss 324,300 U, funding fee expense 21,200 U
Margin 709,500 U, liquidation price 1672.24
Slight pullback is still within controllable range, a normal fluctuation within the hedge portfolio.
③ HYPE short｜5x full position
Holding -268,300 HYPE, position market value 21,952,000 U
Entry price 66.2399
Unrealized loss 4,179,800 U, funding fee income 1,047,000 U
Margin 4,390,400 U, liquidation price 100.6
This is also the biggest pressure item in the entire portfolio, with deep unrealized losses dragging down overall account performance.
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高 #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ To add a bit more, $STRK, $PYTH, and $ZRO have all had decent fundamentals recently. Ajian's homepage has some analysis on this, but the simultaneous drop today indicates that altcoin liquidity remains fragile. This isn't an issue with a single project; when funds withdraw from high-volatility assets, prices quickly lose support. This precisely shows that the market currently favors selective trading rather than a systemic altcoin rebound. Ordinary traders can take this moment to decide whether they should continue to increase their positions in the entire altcoin market Last night, watching ETH's fake breakout at 2500, I actually felt a jolt in my heart. Have you ever had that feeling where you know you should be excited, but your body preemptively reduces your position? In the afternoon, ETH tried 2500 once, but was pushed back decisively. When the US stock market opened in the evening, it slid down further along with the stock index. But honestly, this round of crypto decline is relatively mild; at least there was no panic selling. BTC closed near 79,000 the day before yesterday, moving so fast that it made me wonder if the market has already priced in the bad news. What I care about now is not whether it falls or not, but that the capital preference has changed. In the past, at times like this, money would flee to BTC and ETH, while altcoins would bleed heavily. This time? BTC and ETH are indeed relatively resistant to the drop, but altcoins haven't experienced a complete collapse either. What does this indicate? It means that funds in the market haven't massively withdrawn; they're just repositioning. Some people choose to wait and see, some are still betting on a rebound, and some are already tired, with narrative fatigue clearly evident. The FOMO sentiment is almost invisible, replaced by hesitation and numbness. This emotional structure is actually quite subtle. Bulls don't dare to chase, bears don't dare to heavily short; everyone is waiting for a clearer signal. The bullish logic is this: if the US stock market is just undergoing a normal correction and crypto has already had a round of decline in advance, then ETH reclaiming 2500 is only a matter of time, which will trigger a wave of catch-up buying sentiment, and altcoins will also get a breather. But the risk is also clear: if the US stock market adjustment has just begun#Barclays' Scenario of SpaceX Acquiring Tesla
Those analysts at Barclays actually wrote a script saying SpaceX is going to acquire Tesla.
It reads like it's real. They say the announcement could come as soon as before December 6, with 1 Tesla share exchanged for 0.7 SpaceX shares. If it really happens, Musk's voting power could reach 56%, making it a complete one-man show. What's the point? To tie AI, robotics, energy, and rockets all into one powerhouse.
But I have to pour cold water on this for you guys. This is purely analysts crunching numbers in their office, not even a hint of a formal decision, no board resolutions, no official negotiations—don't take it as gospel.
What does it have to do with us?
First, if these two trillion-dollar giants really merge, all the money will concentrate into this super platform. For our crypto space with its high-volatility assets, the short-term liquidity we can get will be even less.
Second, the core of the merger is about AI, energy, and aerospace. The demand for computing hardware will still rise, so miners' costs won't go down at all. Those small-cap coins in crypto just riding the AI hype by writing whitepapers won't stand a chance against these giants—they'll be left with nothing.
My view is simple.
Capital markets love storytelling. When reports like this come out, it's most likely to hype up the upcoming market moves. Let's just watch the show and definitely don't chase those random "merger concept" pump-and-dump coins—they're easy traps. Just wait patiently for the macro data.
What do you think? $BTC $ETH 20261017
3. The number of wallets holding 10-10,000 BTC has risen to 20,338, reaching a historic high
1. Large holders are buying, while others are desperately selling; both directions are happening simultaneously
2. Santiment: These wallets (holding 10-10,000 BTC) usually turn before the price does, so they are firm and typically a bottom signal. The price oscillates back and forth in the middle, but they haven't left. Short term may continue to fall
3. The futures market has turned; BTC funding rates on Binance have dropped below zero: most are shorting, expecting a drop; the last time it was this pessimistic was in June, when BTC was at 62,000, and money was also flowing out
4. US BTC spot net inflows were 3.5 billion and 2.6 billion in August and September respectively, with about 540 million net outflow in the first two weeks of October
5. The turning point is inflation data, hotter than expected, raising the probability of rate hikes
6. Key levels:
Downside: 80,000 has the largest buy wall, below that is 78,000
Upside: 80,000 is the cost basis for buyers over 8 to 12 months and also the level where shorts will be squeezed
Only when the daily closes above 88,000+, combined with ETF inflows, can it be said that someone is really stepping in
7. If the price retests 80,000, watch if the wallet number continues to rise; large holders buying at low prices is a bullish signal
8. Large holders have hit a new high, shorts are also heavily stacked; historically, these two often happen simultaneously, then each goes their own wayThe market has been quite twisted recently: On the crude oil side, risks in Middle East transportation have heated up, and with U.S. crude oil inventories dropping by 8.6 million barrels in one week, supply expectations suddenly tightened, pushing oil prices up. However, the price surge driven by this geopolitical conflict has a significant emotional component; once the situation eases, the pullback will be quick, so be cautious about chasing highs.
On the crypto side, after a big drop, it's slowly recovering. BTC was pulled back after falling below 80,000, indicating buyers are stepping in at that level, but with CPI and PPI continuously running hot, inflation pressure remains, and the Fed's stance can stir risk assets at any time. The 80,000 level will see repeated battles, and the 83,000 mark is the threshold for a rebound; don’t rush to call a reversal before a volume breakout.
ETH is weaker; first watch if 2,400 can hold, and if it can’t reclaim 2,500, it can’t be considered strong. Plus, spot ETF funds are still flowing out, so whether the rebound has momentum needs a few more days to observe. Overall: crude oil is strong but with emotional overtones, crypto is in recovery but don’t be too optimistic.
#特斯拉发布新一代Roadster，行情走高
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 Tesla released the new generation Roadster last night, demonstrating short-distance flight and aerial attitude adjustment on site using cold air thrusters. Musk said this was developed in collaboration with SpaceX and is expected to enter mass production in 2028. The news initially drove the stock price up by 4.62%, then it gave back gains and turned down by 1.16%. The rise and fall of $TSLA itself is the market repricing this story. What really matters is not the car, but the timing. This car was unveiled in 2017, originally planned for production in 2020, but has been repeatedly delayed until now. Whether the market believes the new 2028 timeline is another matter. The flight feature sounds cool, but regulatory frameworks for flying cars on roads are not ready in any country, and the difficulty of implementation is greater than the technology itself. The stock price rising then falling indicates the market is doing the math. The Roadster is a plus, but Tesla’s real problem now is fundamentals: Q3 deliveries fell 2.1% year-over-year, automotive business profit margins are under pressure, and Robotaxi commercialization is still in progress. Relying on a repeatedly delayed sports car cannot support anxiety over the core business. For $BTC, this matter is not direct. Tesla and SpaceX represent AI and high-end manufacturing directions; the bigger the hype, the greater the imagination space for tech stocks, and risk appetite may warm up accordingly. But Tesla rising does not mean $BTC rises; their logics differ. $BTC is currently fluctuating around 82,000, with resistance from 83,500 to 84,500 and support from 81,500 to 82,000. Truly# US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year?
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin short-term holders (STH) holdings have risen to 4.08 million coins.
Definition of STH: addresses holding for less than 155 days. This group is the most price-sensitive in the market—they tend to chase when prices rise and sell quickly when prices fall.
Currently at 4.08 million coins, which is below the level at the 2021 peak and even lower than in 2017.
Historical pattern: at the price peak of every bull market, it is often when the buying momentum of STH is exhausted. The more STH there are, the more newcomers are taking over; when this group's buying power runs out, prices stop rising.
From this perspective, 4.08 million coins are still some distance from the historical peak signal range—this is an optimistic interpretation.
But there is a key variable now:
Many of these 4.08 million STH built their positions during BTC's decline from the $126,198 high— their cost basis ranges between $80,000 and $100,000.
The good news: September data shows the STH-SOPR 30-day moving average has returned to 1.01, above the breakeven line for the first time in over a year, indicating reduced short-term selling pressure from loss clearing.
The bad news: BTC is now around $81,000, right in the cost pressure zone for many STH. If the market declines, this group is the most likely to stop loss, which could easily trigger a chain reaction in price.
With STH increasing to 4.08 million, what’s your take—are new funds stepping in to catch the dip, or is smart money waiting to sell?The most interesting contrast about BTC today: more people are long, yet contract funds are net outflow.
No guessing price direction today, let's analyze leverage and fund structure.
▍Positions remain, trading cools down
The total open interest of contracts across the network is about $140.564 billion, down only 0.51% in 24 hours, but trading volume dropped 22.28%.
This indicates trading activity declined faster, existing positions did not exit proportionally, and trading is quiet.
▍More bulls, but buy orders not necessarily dominant
The network-wide 24-hour active buy/sell ratio is 49.56% to 50.44%, with sell orders slightly dominant.
OKX's BTC account long-short ratio reaches 1.8, meaning about 64.3% of accounts are long, but this does not necessarily mean an advantage.
▍Spot and contracts diverge
BTC in the last 4 hours:
Spot net inflow of $10.8 million.
Contract net outflow of $80.82 million.
Extended to 24 hours, spot net inflow is $37.46 million, contract net outflow is $61.82 million.
According to this fund flow, spot shows net buying, contracts still dominated by active selling. But this does not prove all are shorts adding positions.
My judgment:
There is both support and divergence, not enough to confirm a reversal yet.
More worth watching than how many are bullish is whether subsequent buying can push the price up. Delivery volume exceeding expectations has laid the foundation for the revenue side, but the profitability side faces triple pressures of sluggish gross margins, energy storage deployment falling short of expectations, and surging R&D and capital expenditures. The probability of EPS missing expectations is high, and the overall earnings report presents a "mixed bag" pattern—revenue may slightly exceed expectations, but earnings per share are very likely below consensus. Market focus will quickly shift to management's statements on the progress of FSD v15, the commercialization pace of Robotaxi, and the full-year free cash flow guidance.
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 SanDisk really made me question life this week 😇😇
At the beginning of the week, it was hovering around 1600, but once ChangXin Memory's new technology news came out, the entire storage sector got hit, and $SNDK especially kept dropping all the way down.
It fell 19% over the week, hitting a low of 1279...
I previously bought at 1419.1 and sold at 1504.6, which was a timely exit, then I bought back more than one long position at 1341.1.
Yesterday I was still up over 50 USD, but today when I checked again, the price had dropped back near 1300.
That's pretty frustrating.
However, my fundamental view on SanDisk hasn't fundamentally changed for now. ChangXin's breakthrough is in DRAM technology, while SanDisk mainly focuses on NAND, so the two can't be directly equated.
But the market has obviously started to reassess the entire storage sector. Next week, I want to focus on the reaction around 1300.
No matter how logical the fundamentals are, if the price keeps going down, you can't just pretend you don't see it.
NFA, DYOR!
#KoreanStockRecoveryRebound, can foreign capital selling pressure ease? 拿最新上线ctusdt来说发行代币10亿在区块查到流通百分之19也就是1.9亿，目前价格都差不多0.35美元，这个dna说的好听什么百分之13流通量其他的锁定，但是你发行的是100亿代币啊哥，也就是说你流通都有13亿了呀，这群做多的人你们都在想啥呢，不要盲目跟风做多。📊 Profit & Margin Outlook
Analysts expect revenue to grow, but profitability may remain under pressure due to aggressive price cuts and substantial capital spending.
• EPS Expectations: Consensus forecasts range from $0.37 to $0.44 per share, below the peak levels seen in late 2025.
• Automotive Gross Margin Watch: Investors will be watching closely to see whether core automotive margins can stabilize or recover from the 16.3% reported in 2026.
#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #US PPI Year-on-Year Rises to 6.3%
[Old Leek Observation] US PPI Year-on-Year Surges to 6.3%, Adding Uncertainty to Rate Cut Expectations
US September PPI year-on-year growth rose from 5.6% to 6.3%, with a month-on-month increase of 1.3%, marking the largest rise since March 2022. The rise in energy prices is a key driver of this rebound.
The issue is that if rising production costs continue to pass through to the consumer side, inflation may be harder to bring down than the market expects.
What does this mean for the crypto market?
If inflation continues to exceed expectations, the Federal Reserve's room for rate cuts may be limited, and the US dollar and US Treasury yields could again put pressure on risk assets like BTC.
But it’s not necessary to assume the market will fall just because PPI is rising. Whether the shock from energy prices can be sustained and whether subsequent CPI follows higher are key to judging the inflation trend.
Right now, the market’s biggest fear is not a temporary pause in rate cuts, but that the originally expected easing is repeatedly broken by data. If inflation remains stubbornly high, it will also be harder for BTC to sustain gains driven by rate cut expectations.
Next, focus on upcoming inflation data and the market’s repricing of the Federal Reserve’s rate path. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $SOL 偏空，现价 104.82。过去一天被清算的主要是多头，多单爆了 326 万美元，比空单多出一截。价格跌得不多，多头却先被打掉，说明盘中往下扫的时候，被挤出去的是追在高位的杠杆多单，空头只是顺势压着。9.3 亿美元的持仓摆在那里，这点清算量占比很小，杠杆远没洗干净，价格再往下试一次，还会有一批多单被迫离场。资金费率转成小幅负值，只说明情绪偏冷，不拿它当理由。图上高点下移、均线空头排列、反弹缩量，和清算透露出来的方向一致。接下来更可能回到 102.43 一带再试一次。翻多条件是价格重新站上 107.37，同时多单清算不再领先空单。$BTC 半天没看，81000没破，倒是往回爬了一点，现在81600上下。
早上我还在琢磨韩国那边的事，这会儿盘面反而是个更值得看的信号。冲高到82819掉下来，最低摸到80780，然后又被买回来——这叫承接，不叫崩。
真正让我留意的不是价格，是人。从7月底算到现在，短线那帮人手里多了42万个大饼，仓位堆到四个月最高。一边是价格七天跌了一个多点、比半个月前还是高的，一边是新钱拼命往里搬。
这两件事凑一起，说明现在这个位置不是散户认错的地方，是新人在接老人在交班。半年前买的人浮着8%，90天前进场的更浮了26%——这些利润要先兑现，才有这波冲高回落。接的人看什么？就看81000这一脚踩不踩得住。
我的看法不复杂：往上不追，回踩下来站稳了再说，追高进这种位置，输的不是方向，是节奏。针多，别乱摸。
再说个膈应人的，孙宇晨出来唱空BTC，理由是AI发展太快会被攻破。孙割买的币我现在不跟，但孙割这套说法我也不接——一个卖过无数空气的人跑来跟你谈技术风险，不觉得哪不对吗。他去年吹存储吹成什么样了，听听就好。真正该算的是：新人接的这42万个大饼，成本区在哪，跌破谁先慌。$BTC Bitcoin struggles around $81,000, while Wall Street is doing something very interesting.
Charles Schwab has started offering direct Bitcoin and Ethereum trading to eligible U.S. retail clients.
Deutsche Bank is also preparing to launch digital asset custody services.
On one hand, there is a lack of market confidence; on the other, traditional financial institutions continue to invest resources.
This makes me think of a question:
If cryptocurrencies really have no future, why are these traditional financial institutions still continuously building related businesses?
But on the flip side, don’t rush to interpret these news as a bull market signal.
Banks willing to offer Bitcoin trading services doesn’t mean the banks themselves are bullish on Bitcoin.
The most profitable time for exchanges isn’t necessarily when customers are making the most money.
Wall Street doing business and retail investors making profits have never been the same thing.
I believe the biggest change in this crypto cycle might not be how high Bitcoin can rise next.
Rather, it’s that Bitcoin is gradually transforming from an independent speculative market into an asset that the traditional financial system can directly service.
This could be good for the industry’s long-term development.
But for the price, ultimately, someone still has to be willing to keep buying.
Better infrastructure doesn’t necessarily mean asset valuations will keep rising.
The road builders have already started collecting tolls.
Whether the cars on the road can make money is another matter. #circle上半年营收约14亿美元
【老韭观察】半年营收14亿美元，Circle真正想赚的是什么钱？
Circle公布的2026年上半年数据，值得拆开看。
公司营收及储备收入约14亿美元，USDC上半年链上交易额超过36万亿美元。单看这两个数字，很容易觉得稳定币发行商正在躺着赚钱，但实际生意没那么简单。
USDC背后需要储备资产，也需要银行渠道、交易平台和支付合作伙伴帮忙分发。Circle必须为这些渠道支付成本，还要承担合规、流动性和产品开发等支出。
换句话说，USDC规模越大，不代表Circle就能把更多收入直接装进口袋。
不过，36万亿美元的链上交易额仍然释放了一个重要信号：USDC正在成为加密市场和链上金融的重要美元流通工具。稳定币的价值不只是用户持有多少，还在于它被多少次用于交易、结算和资金转移。
当然，交易额不等于新增资金流入，也不意味着这么多资金都沉淀在USDC里。
我认为，这条新闻真正值得关注的，是稳定币行业正在从“发行美元代币”转向争夺支付渠道、用户和结算场景。未来谁能让稳定币更方便地用于真实支付，谁就可能掌握更持久的竞争优势。$BTC $ETH $ZEC Hello brothers and sisters, I am Coin Brother
The total liquidation amount of the three major cryptocurrencies is nearly 150 million USD, accounting for more than 40% of the total network liquidation volume. This is the main battlefield where leveraged funds cluster to compete.
Sharing three market signals worth noting:
In this round of decline, long positions are the main force of liquidation. The scale of long liquidations in these three cryptocurrencies is significantly higher than that of shorts. The BTC long-to-short ratio is about 7 to 3, and SOL even reaches 3.2:1, indicating that in the past 24 hours, bears dominated the sell-off, and longs with high leverage at high prices were concentratedly liquidated.
The difference in position sentiment between BTC and ETH is very interesting. Long positions account for nearly 69% of BTC, while ETH's long and short shares are basically split about 52%. This structure indicates that ETH experiences more intense two-way squeezing during pullbacks, leading to more extreme volatility.
Liquidation proportion does not equal market cap weighting. BTC plus ETH liquidation amount accounts for 44%, matching their market size; SOL liquidation accounts for only 3.5%, with smaller total leverage, but even slight fluctuations can cause huge impacts on positions.
Everyone should understand that liquidation data is a lagging indicator, only reflecting the market moves that have already occurred and cannot predict future trends. After large-scale long liquidations are completed, market leverage is cleared, and short-term downward momentum will weaken; once prices rebound, short covering will further boost the rise.
#Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? #SpaceX's first full quarterly report after listing will be revealed $BTC $ETH $ZEC #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #Netflix Growth May Slow, Advertising Business Becomes New Focus
A brief discussion on Netflix's Q3 earnings report: I still lean towards a slight beat of expectations, with EPS expected around 0.83–0.85 (consensus 0.82) and revenue about $12.9 billion (consensus $12.88 billion).
First, the guidance given in Netflix's July letter to shareholders is the company's genuine internal forecast and is not deliberately lowered to be exceeded, so actual results usually hover near the guidance. The last quarter was similar: revenue was $12.56 billion, about $300 million below expectations; EPS was 0.80, a penny above.
Second, the price increase is a confirmed positive.
Q3 is the first full quarter after the North American price hike; Q2 North America only grew 10%, so this quarter is expected to rebound. If revenue beats expectations, it will mainly be due to this.
Third, EPS is easier to beat than revenue.
Netflix has been buying back shares, reducing diluted shares from 4.349 billion in Q2 last year to 4.261 billion in Q2 this year. With fewer shares, earnings per share naturally get a slight boost. Additionally, items below operating profit like foreign exchange gains/losses, interest income, and tax rates fluctuate each quarter. Q1's income tax was notably high. This is why I say the probability of a slight beat on the profit side is higher than on revenue; an EPS beat of a penny or two often comes from these items.
The above is my personal view and does not constitute investment advice.
#OKX US Stock Earnings Season Reviewing NeoSoul $DNA — The Ultimate in Insider Info and Marketing:
1⃣, Marketing is comprehensive and flawless, from the Hong Kong Web3 Festival, to Seoul KBW, then to Singapore TOKEN 2049, fully leveraging attendance to gain massive exposure. They are especially savvy, customizing T-shirts for Teacher Wang Duanniao, hosting lobster parties, various peripherals, offline interactions, etc. The marketing is truly meticulous in every detail;
2⃣, The timing and entry points are well coordinated. In 2026, when the market is focused on prediction markets and the World Cup, NeoSoul directly targets AI prediction, launching in April, a wave of promotion in May, integrating with the World Cup in June, announcing partnerships and financing in August, and even partnering with Alibaba Cloud in October to hold the TGE at peak hype. The pace is very tight; Continue predicting OKX Prophet S3: Will Netflix Q3 GAAP EPS be higher than $0.84?
Personally, I lean NO! 📉
🔷 EPS expected only $0.82: Zacks data shows analysts have lowered estimates by 0.7% over the past 30 days, while the threshold for YES is at least $0.85.
🔷 US user engagement under pressure: Apptopia estimates that app downloads in the US and Canada have dropped 20% year-over-year, and daily usage time for US users has decreased from 77 minutes in Q1 to 73.2 minutes.
🔷 Layoffs won’t help Q3 for now: Netflix announced plans to lay off about 1,000 people on October 14, but Q3 ended on September 30.
Of course, Netflix revenue is still growing, and if profit margins or ad revenue exceed expectations, YES is still possible.
But overall, I still lean NO! I went all in on NO with the points I saved for two days! 😂
📝 This is just a personal prediction and does not constitute investment advice.
#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Bitcoin breaks into 12th place globally, is silver the next target?
$BTC is now the 12th largest asset in the world, just ahead of Saudi Aramco, which ranks 13th. In 2020, Saudi Aramco was the company with the highest market capitalization worldwide.
To break into the global top ten, it still needs a significant rally. But the real ceiling is above: 6th place is silver, with a market cap twice that of Bitcoin. 1st place is gold, which is 18 times larger.
So Bitcoin's current situation is: it is already bigger than almost all companies, but still one order of magnitude behind the "precious metals."
What happened this week?
Tech stocks pulled back 6–10%, silver dropped 6.5%, while Bitcoin only fell 1.4%. Among the top 10, 6 had larger declines than Bitcoin.
The "smaller drop" indicates it is being treated as something different, which is why some traders shorted the entire tech sector but went long on Bitcoin.
The question is: will Bitcoin surpass silver next? That is, if it doubles again, how long do you think it will take? Many people think that a big drop in the US stock market will definitely drag BTC down, and they are all talking about escaping the crypto native environment to embrace the US stock market. Well, that market trend is about to come.
The total risk capital in the market is limited. When other markets peak and fall, money naturally flows back to BTC, which has better odds.
Many worry that the US stock market has fallen enough to be cost-effective. In the short term, they often fall together, but over a longer period, it's completely the opposite. When the US stock market surged the most in May, the crypto market was drained and fell the hardest; from June to July, as the stock market started to fall, the crypto market bottomed out and stopped falling, and then from August to September, BTC directly started a big rebound.
The same applies to gold. When gold surged the most from December to February, BTC fell the hardest. When gold plunged off a cliff, BTC immediately bottomed out and rebounded.
These past two days, US stocks and AI have started to fall again, but BTC is hovering at a high level and just won’t drop. Now that the US stock market expectations are maxed out and the odds aren’t good enough, the money flowing out naturally looks for more cost-effective places.
After a few days, when AI stabilizes and market sentiment steadies, BTC will start a strong attack again.
#SpaceX上市后首份完整季度财报将揭晓 Continue predicting OKX Prophet S3: Will Netflix Q3 GAAP EPS be higher than $0.84?
Personally, I lean NO! 📉
🔷 EPS is expected to be only $0.82: Zacks data shows analysts have lowered estimates by 0.7% over the past 30 days, while the question requires at least $0.85 to count as YES.
🔷 US user engagement is under pressure: Apptopia estimates that app downloads in the US and Canada have dropped 20% year-over-year, and daily usage time by US users has decreased from 77 minutes in Q1 to 73.2 minutes.
🔷 Layoffs won’t help Q3 for now: Netflix announced plans to lay off about 1,000 people on October 14, but Q3 ended on September 30.
Of course, Netflix revenue is still growing, and if profit margins or ad revenue beat expectations, YES is still possible.
But overall, I still lean NO! I went all in on NO with the points I saved for two days! 😂 $BTC vs $ETH : Which One Will Recover First?
Both are under pressure, but I see two different setups developing.
Bitcoin looks vulnerable. Long positions dominate, yet buyers aren't showing enough strength to defend the price. I wouldn't rule out another move toward $80,000.
Ethereum looks more interesting. Shorts are heavily positioned, while fresh buying is starting to appear.
My view: ETH could outperform BTC in a short-term rebound, especially if shorts begin closing. 以太坊把2400这道整数关口也丢了，从2500一路往下，盘面挺压抑的。
这波跌不是单一原因：美国9月CPI同比3.7%超预期，降息预期被打回去，风险资产一起挨压；价格一破位，杠杆多头被强制平仓，跌势被放大；再加上美国现货ETH ETF连续净流出，机构资金没回来。
短期就看两点：能不能重新站回2400，卖压继续的话有没有资金愿意接。破关口不等于一定继续跌，长期还得看生态有没有真实需求。$ETH$SOL
SOL falls along with the broader market; how to verify the strength of the ecosystem?
Spot price dropped about 1.09% in 24 hours, ranging between 102.5 and 107.45, with the price positioned at about 40% of this range.
Price decline alone does not directly prove on-chain usage deterioration; likewise, ecosystem enthusiasm does not guarantee sustained token price increase. Currently, it is necessary to observe price support and actual paid demand separately, rather than mixing them into a single indicator.
A recovery above the upper boundary and formation of a higher low on the pullback supports a repair; if the lower boundary is broken and the rebound continues to lag behind ETH, the judgment of elasticity advantage should be reduced. Performance during a broad rally phase cannot replace stress testing.In Tesla's profits, the once useful regulatory credit income has significantly shrunk. When discussing profit recovery, don't skip this part.
In the Q2 10-Q, automotive regulatory credit income was $146 million, down 67% year-over-year. The company also warned that regulatory changes could affect related programs and future revenue recognition. Although Q3 deliveries performed well, that doesn't tell us what will happen to this income going forward.
I actually think this provides a more solid way to test the next earnings report: see if the automotive business can improve its profitability on its own without relying on credit income. Comparing gross margins after excluding credit income makes it easier to see changes in car sales themselves.
If costs decline and product mix improves, driving profits even when credit income is weak, that's a recovery I want to seriously consider. If profit improvement mainly comes from the timing of credit recognition, then sustainability needs to be questioned more. Normal income should of course be included in the reports, but to judge how much can be earned in the future, we need to know where the improvement comes from.
Deliveries exceeded expectations, the Roadster was released again, and optimism is already well supported. In the October 21 earnings report, I want a clear profit breakdown. After external policy income decreases, can car sales still generate stable profits? This question is harder to answer and more worthwhile than just another impressive sales number.
#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 $ZEC Why doesn't it consolidate at 1200, but insists on consolidating at 1150?
The depth behind this is far greater than you imagine.
Take a close look at the long-short ratio data in the contracts; currently, only 51.24% are long positions, and 48.76% are short positions, with a long-short ratio exactly at 1.05.
This data is extremely critical.
What does this indicate?
It shows that the current long and short forces are in an extremely delicate balance.
At this equilibrium point, there will definitely be no sharp rise or fall in the short term. The only goal of the manipulators is to "grind down" and wear out most people's patience.
The manipulators must oscillate back and forth at this indecisive level.
What they want to do is slowly brainwash the 51% longs, making everyone believe "1150 is the iron bottom, it won't fall further," luring those shorts to flip and go long.
When the number of longs soars to 60% or 70%, meaning everyone thinks the bull market has returned, that's when the real slaughter will begin.
Do you think this is the bottom?
Actually, this is not the bottom at all; it's just the manipulators' trick!
Looking at the daily chart, the price dropped from 1248 to 1130, now stuck around 1160, with the moving averages starting to converge.
This kind of low-volume sideways consolidation is brewing the next big move.
Starting from 30U initially, challenging 300U, today it has already reached 90U, tripling in value. What is this based on? Simply not guessing the bottom blindly, but following the trend.
$BTC $ETH #Tesla releases new generation Roadster, market rises $AGT finally took off! After grinding for a full two months, the manipulative whales really know how to shake people out!
Bought in at 0.0139, always believed AGT would rally sooner or later, but still couldn't hold on. Today it surged close to 0.1 at its peak, looking back it’s a bit painful.
Reviewing the situation, the biggest problem for many wasn’t getting the direction wrong, but not being able to endure the volatility.
Especially with contracts, long sideways movement, repeated spikes, a little rise then a drop, price goes up a bit then falls back, just when you think it’s about to start, it crashes again.
Holding on too long makes you doubt your own judgment, can’t bear it and close the position, only to see the market take off shortly after.
This is the biggest difference between contracts and spot trading. Contracts have leverage, margin pressure, funding fees, and liquidation risks.
Even if your directional call is ultimately correct, a single sharp fluctuation can force you out early.
But every trade is a learning experience. Being bullish on a coin is one thing, but being able to hold until the end is another.
Next time you encounter such an opportunity, think clearly before entering: what if it oscillates for two months? How much drawdown can you tolerate? Under what circumstances would you admit you were wrong?
Directional judgment determines if you have a chance; position management and trading discipline determine whether you can ultimately take the profits.
Missing out on AGT’s main rally wave is indeed a pity, but hopefully next time won’t repeat the same mistake!
#ETF与巨鲸资金分化，BTC能否守住8万美元？ [Sun Yuchen sold 90% of ETH, then heavily invested in Nvidia: Has he started to dislike the crypto space?]
Sun Ge's latest position choices are worth analyzing. He continues to hold $BTC, while last year he reduced 80-90% of his $ETH offensive position between $3600 and $4000. Most of the funds shifted to US stocks, with Nvidia becoming the main holding.
This is not simply bearish on cryptocurrency. He treats BTC as a base position and ETH as an offensive asset, differentiating between them. However, Nvidia, his heavy holding, also dropped 1.43% on October 16; the Nasdaq 100 fell about 5.5% this week, and AI stocks are being hit by high financing costs and huge investments. Market source.
He hasn't bought back ETH after selling, indicating that at least in his judgment, the risk-reward ratio of ETH was less favorable than US AI stocks at that time. But this is just an interview summary, not a full portfolio audit, and certainly doesn't prove that institutional funds are making the same choices.
Don't take Sun Ge's moves as a copy-trading signal. For ETH to regain his favor, it needs to present a more attractive return outlook; if Nvidia and the Nasdaq continue to fall, his portfolio shift will also suffer losses. Big players can lose too, they just changed the battlefield.Coin Fee Rate Characteristics Long-Short Sentiment Mapping Correlation with Previous Two Rounds
BTC All positive (0.0059%~0.0079%), no forecast Weak long-side premium, sentiment stable Long positions just liquidated (69%), currently bearish (51.9%), positive fee rate indicates longs are alive but restrained
ETH Includes negative values (-0.0001%), right side up to 0.0091% Local intense long-short battle, short costs slightly increased Two-way squeeze + long-short ratio slightly long (51.5%), slightly negative fee rate suggests short-term long-short tug-of-war
SOL Near zero, includes slight negative (-0.0005%) Extremely balanced, very low leverage Long-short ratio 50%:50%, fully cleaned after liquidations, near-zero fee rate = no directional bets Ethereum researcher Justin Drake tweeted on October 7 warning that AI might break signature algorithms ahead of schedule and advised large holders to move their assets to new addresses as soon as possible. Vitalik opposed on the same day: "I don't recommend anyone rush to move today." CZ followed with a joke.
But the Chinese community missed a third voice: Coinbase's chief cryptographer Lindell directly denied the urgency—there is no evidence that the old assumptions are about to fail. It's three against one; Drake is isolated.
Let me add three points.
First, Drake's direction might be correct, but it can't be implemented today. This requires wallet providers, exchanges, and custodians to jointly update standards while ensuring ordinary users don't lose funds. Yet he suggests "starting with large holders," who are precisely the ones who shouldn't be used as test subjects.
Second, Vitalik's opposition is not to the risk but to the timing. Rushed migration itself can cause losses: misconfigured multisigs, untested code, operational errors. He opposes panic, not defense.
Third, the technical roadmap has long been changing. Vitalik also mentioned that Ethereum's Lean roadmap is shifting toward pure hash signatures. While verbally reassuring, the roadmap has already adapted.
To judge a person's true stance, don't just look at what they say; look at what changes have already been made in their roadmap.A deep sense of sadness! $SOL
The Solana Hangzhou Accelerate event has officially been postponed, with the email citing over-registration and the need to comply with local event guidelines as reasons for the delay.
Many interpret this as: foreign public chain projects trying to hold large-scale offline ecosystem conferences in China inherently touch regulatory red lines. Domestic policies are very clear—virtual currency trading and token promotion financial activities cannot be conducted domestically. Such conferences easily turn into crypto speculation promotions and are naturally stopped. The consecutive cancellations of Sol's domestic tour send a very clear signal: foreign public chains are not allowed to conduct large-scale offline community hype events in China. What regulators prohibit is token financialization and speculative recruitment, not a blanket ban on blockchain technology research.
For the market, this news will directly affect market sentiment. The market originally expected domestic offline events to bring heat, but with multiple city events postponed consecutively, short-term positive expectations are dashed.
However, it should be noted that the volatility caused by such events is mostly short-term emotional impact. The core of Sol's market lies in overseas capital and ecosystem narratives; domestic offline events are just a bonus, not the foundation of the market. #SOL continues its upward trend, with capital and on-chain demand resonating 【Argentinians are buying USDT at 1600 pesos, who still dares to say stablecoins are useless?】
The price of $USDT in Argentina has surpassed 1600 pesos. Don't get it wrong, USDT hasn't suddenly become more expensive; rather, locals are willing to exchange more pesos for dollar assets.
On October 16, the price gap between USDT over-the-counter trading and the wholesale exchange rate widened to 6.6%, the highest since mid-August. The discrepancy between the official exchange rate and USDT quotes indicates that some people are willing to pay more for a more convenient dollar substitute.
This is the truly interesting aspect of stablecoins: in the crypto world, they are often used as trading tools; in places with unstable currencies, they also serve as savings and hedging instruments. The rising demand for USDT does not necessarily mean everyone is bullish on $BTC; it may simply reflect an urgent desire to move away from the local currency.
This actually further proves the real demand for stablecoins and cannot yet be directly interpreted as a bullish signal for the crypto market. Going forward, it depends on whether the exchange rate gap continues to widen and whether USDT trading demand persists. If pressure on the peso eases, the premium may also fall. The stablecoin business can grow bigger and bigger, but this money may not necessarily flow into altcoins.100x short positions only lasted 7 minutes; the real fragility isn't the price, but the speed of execution and mindset. Have you ever had that moment right after opening a position when you immediately want to cut it? Reviewing the two most painful trades from Friday: one was a 100x short on ETH, entered at 19:04, stopped out after 7 minutes with a 43.37% loss; the other was a long on BOME, held stubbornly from 6 AM until 4 PM, refusing to admit a mistake for 10 hours, finally cutting losses at -12.18%. Seeing these two numbers together is even more striking than a single loss because they expose the same problem: entering trades based on emotion and exiting in collapse. But what’s really worth watching this week isn’t these two trades, but the cross-market transmission chain. PPI rose beyond expectations, risk appetite was suppressed first, mainstream coins briefly dropped below 80,000 then quickly rebounded 2,500 points, indicating panic selling was absorbed, but absorption doesn’t equal trend reversal. Meanwhile, the crude oil grid lost 34%, showing that volatility in commodities is also drawing attention away; capital isn’t staying put in a single sector but is moving between different assets seeking safety. So the market isn’t trading "bull or bear" right now, but "who breaks first." High-leverage assets like ETH are most easily amplified by emotion into a meat grinder; altcoins like BOME act more like a risk appetite thermometer—there’s heat, but once support loosens, the true nature is revealed. Under cross-market linkage, BTC and ETH rebounds will first repair sentiment, but the sustainability of altcoins depends on whether trading volume can keep up; otherwise, it’s just a chance for trapped holders to escape. The slightly bullish path is:BTC bounced from $80K to $82.1K in a V-shape. New whales (UTXO <155 days) now hold $78.6B, about 33%. ETF flows around a $77K average cost are building support at $80K, with heavy resistance at $84-85K.
Macro: CPI/PPI beat expectations, but Powell's soft tone cut October hike odds to 29%. DXY slipped to 101.65, yields fell, and gold holds near $4,177.
ETH/BTC fell to 0.0297 (~$2,440) amid ETF outflows. Altseason isn't here, so be selective (INJ, PayFi/RWA). $BTC $ETH
#TeslaQ3ProfitAndMargins #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 The slowdown is in "attention," not "profit"
On the surface, the Q3 guidance of $12.86 billion in revenue and $0.82 EPS doesn't look bad in terms of growth. But breaking it down, revenue growth has declined from 17.6% in Q4 2025 to about 12%, and the profit growth this time has some "water" — last year’s base was lowered by a one-time tax expense in Brazil, so a significant part of the 33.2% operating margin comes from the base effect. Compared to Q2’s 33.4%, the real profit margin expansion has almost stalled.
The more fundamental pressure is on the user side. In the first half of 2026, member viewing time grew only 2%, while in July, YouTube’s share of TV viewing in the US reached 14.2%, nearly double Netflix’s 7.8%. Users no longer "prefer watching Netflix more," they just haven’t canceled their subscriptions yet. The sudden layoff of about 1,000 people (6% of total staff) before the earnings report is itself a direct confirmation from management of the weakening growth momentum.