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#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？
My judgment is: unless the core CPI month-over-month is significantly below expectations, the October CPI is unlikely to change the market's expectations for a rate hike in December.
The data released at 21:30 Beijing time on Tuesday has a special feature: due to the government shutdown in October last year, the BLS was unable to collect prices for that month, so neither the overall nor the core CPI year-over-year will be published. The market focus will be on the core month-over-month. The core month-over-month for September has recorded 0.3% for two consecutive months, and this time the expectation is about 0.2%. Even if it meets expectations, it only indicates that inflation has not continued to worsen and is insufficient to prove it has declined.
From a policy perspective, the Federal Reserve raised rates to 3.75%-4.00% in September, held steady in October, but two voting members advocated for a direct rate hike, so the hawkish stance has not softened. Currently, the market pricing for a 25bp rate hike in December is about 80%.
More critically is the timing window. This is the last CPI before the December 9 meeting; the November data will be released the day after the meeting. If the core month-over-month again reaches 0.3%, a December rate hike is almost certain, and the market may even start discussing whether to continue hiking in January.
For the crypto market, the 10-year US Treasury yield remains above 5%, and in an environment with strong rate hike expectations, the holding cost of interest-free assets like BTC is relatively high, so volatility risks should be watched before and after the data release.
The above is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.The neighboring exchange opened withdrawals one day early this time, with $HYPE and $APT resuming on November 8, earlier than the originally scheduled next weekend. Today, the focus is on reserve data, which is the most concrete measure of the extent to which trust in exchanges has been damaged.
$BNB's pricing is highly tied to Binance's reserve confidence. Before and after the event, BTC reserves dropped from about 730,000 to 673,700, ETH from 3.48 million to 3.08 million, and Ethereum-based stablecoins directly lost 9 billion. Before reserves show obvious recovery, I consider the 700 level as the watershed between strength and weakness.
HYPE is the focus this time; after being frozen for eight days, the withdrawal channel reopened, liquidity returned, but the accumulated chips also ushered in a selling window, so short-term selling pressure cannot be ignored. Hyperliquid's fundamentals haven't changed, so I won't bottom-fish in the first wave after resumption.
OKB is even more stable, showing strong defensive attributes in this risk environment.
The amount of funds withdrawn directly affects everyone's confidence. BNB's support doesn't come out of thin air; it all depends on whether Binance's holdings are solid enough.Long-short ratio 2.6, but the funding rate is flat: Is this BTC's "bull trap"?
After a spike to 73,385 in the early morning followed by a pullback, it seems the bottom has appeared, but the data is strange:
1. Sentiment and funds diverge: 72% of accounts are long (long-short ratio 2.6), but the funding rate is only +0.002%. Many are long, yet no one is willing to top up for their conviction. Leveraged longs are crowded but are actually passively holding on.
2. Price falls while positions increase: Open interest surged to 2.55 billion. Both sides keep adding positions during the decline, which easily triggers a cascading liquidation.
3. Caught in a dilemma: There is real support at 73,500 below, while 75,400-76,000 above is a heavy trapped zone.
Strategy: Bearish in a range, favor longs but act cautiously. Wait for two signals:
• Upward: Volume expands and the price firmly holds above 76,000, then follow on the right side;
• Downward: Volume expands and breaks below 73,500, wait for leveraged liquidation.
Before the CPI release, survival is more important than profit. (Not investment advice) #BTC持续承压，资金与市场走势出现分歧 $BTC Is mining Bitcoin no longer profitable? Are mining companies all switching to work for AI? $IREN AI cloud quarterly revenue is $200 million, while mining only brings in $28 million, a difference of more than 7 times! The stock price dropped 17% one day, then surged 20% the next!
After $IREN tasted the benefits, it has already started shutting down mining machines, giving the machine rooms and power to AI. And it's not just one company; $RIOT has also rented part of its data center capacity to AI clients, and $HUT has signed long-term AI data center contracts!
Mining companies are all scrambling to switch to AI. Does that mean no one will mine Bitcoin in the future? My judgment is no. In the short term, computing power may drop, but Bitcoin will adjust the difficulty itself. If fewer people mine, the remaining miners still have opportunities.
Previously, it was said that AI and mining compete for chips, but now it seems they really compete for electricity! AI demand is real, but so is the money burn!Jensen Huang's betrayal, Big Bro Maji pays the price.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's betrayal hurts Big Bro Maji, whose $ETH long position was liquidated again this morning, then he sold 3 monkey NFTs to raise funds to go long on ETH again. #NVIDIA launches independent investigation, management stability under scrutiny
The drop that liquidated the whale's position at 6 AM also wiped out Maji's $1.16 million ETH long position;
After liquidation, he sold 3 BAYC NFTs to raise 17.2 ETH ($36,800), and withdrew 100 ETH ($213,000) from the exchange.
Then after selling ETH, he transferred 53,000 USDC into Hyperliquid to fully leverage and open a $1.48 million ETH long position.
What do you think, can Maji make it through this time? Right now, many people are discussing the AI bubble, but I don't think there's much need to worry about the US stock market. How does a bubble form? It's because the growth rate is too fast. Chart 1 and Chart 2 show the ChiNext Index and the Korea Composite Index respectively; this recent drop is largely because the previous rise was too rapid, creating a bubble. Chart 3 shows the US stock market in 2000, which also rose too quickly, leading to the subsequent major crash. The US stock market usually doesn't rise that fast, which is why it can sustain a slow bull market. Generally speaking, if there is no major negative news for the US stock market, the previous high acts as a strong support, and any further decline presents very good opportunities.At 5:55 AM Beijing time today, Bitcoin $BTC fell below $74,000, with HTX quoting 73,978.79, down 2.32% in 24 hours; Ethereum $ETH quoted 2,091.37, down 6.31% in 24 hours. Ethereum dropped more sharply than Bitcoin, with mainly long positions liquidated, not shorts building positions to push prices down.
According to CoinGlass statistics, as of 6:21 AM in the past hour, the total contract liquidations across the network reached $745 million, of which long positions accounted for $715 million, or 96%, and shorts only $29.62 million.
While prices fell, positions shrank. Binance Ethereum perpetual open interest was $4.872 billion, down 8.14% in 24 hours; Bitcoin open interest was $7.109 billion, down 3.02%. Looking at these two figures together, it indicates liquidations, not adding positions.
Funding rates diverged. Ethereum perpetual funding every 8 hours was -0.0079%, with shorts starting to pay longs; Bitcoin remained +0.0036%, with longs continuing to pay.
The long-to-short ratio in accounts still favors longs: Bitcoin 2.85, Ethereum 3.58. What was liquidated were positions, not views.
Therefore, this round of decline looks more like deleveraging driven by forced liquidations rather than a trend dominated by shorts building positions. The judgment has boundaries: if the price drops another step today but open interest no longer decreases, it indicates new shorts are entering, and this round cannot be considered deleveraging.
$ZEC #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ CoinGecko live: ETH at $2140, 24-hour range $2118–$2243. The bearish candle from last Friday hasn't recovered yet, and on Sunday it directly broke below the $2200–$2230 box bottom. Even more painful is the capital flow: last week ETH funds had a net outflow of $365 million, while exchanges saw a net inflow of 29,820 ETH over seven days—someone is lining up to deliver to exchanges. On-chain added fuel to the fire: a trader holding 56,667 ETH on Hyperliquid was completely liquidated, with a lifetime loss of about $44.8 million. In the past 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations totaling $856 million, with longs lining up to pay tuition. I think this time ETH isn't just falling with the market, it's leading the admission of mistakes—the main coin only dropped 1.3%, while it fell 4.3%, indicating the market is venting frustration by targeting the second largest first. The key level is clear: $2262 above is the threshold for bulls to turn the tide; if it can't hold above, any rebound is a bull trap. Below, watch the $2060–$2100 area; if that doesn't hold, it will test the $2000 psychological level. The invalidation condition is also clear: if the daily close returns above $2262, this bearish scenario is void. The real test this week is Tuesday night’s US October CPI; if the data exceeds expectations and interest rate expectations tighten, ETH will take another hit. So the question is: is ETH at $2140 a panic sell-off due to the "midterm election fear," or will it dip further to $2000 before CPI?The latest 24-hour liquidation data is out, brothers hold tight: a total of $865 million liquidated in 24 hours, with 141,854 people liquidated. Among them, long positions liquidated $781 million, accounting for 90%, while short positions only liquidated $83.13 million. This is a typical long squeeze.
Looking at the time distribution more clearly: $806 million liquidated in 4 hours, with longs at $747 million. That means this morning's drop liquidated over $700 million in long positions within 4 hours. In the 1-hour liquidation, shorts were slightly more at $21.68 million, indicating a small amount of short positions chasing the drop were also liquidated, but the majority were longs buried.
Looking at the heatmap: ETH liquidated $364 million, 90.7% longs, the largest in the market. The largest single liquidation also happened on Binance's ETH perpetual contract, a single $48.15 million liquidation. BTC liquidated $237 million. SOL, XRP, ZEC, HYPE were all mainly long liquidations. JCT was the only red, with short liquidations.
I've been trading for fifteen years, and this data fully confirms yesterday's pain point list judgment: a pile of long positions stacked around 75,000, with cascading liquidations after the breakdown.
The $865 million liquidation volume indicates this drop had leveraged selling pressure. There may be a short-term rebound after the liquidation finishes.
#US October nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, December rate hike bets heat up $BTC $ETH $ZEC US-Iran diplomatic negotiations continue, the dispute over Hormuz Strait navigation remains unresolved, geopolitical premium retreats in the short term, risk funds turn cautious, overall BTC outlook is weak and volatile. Funds and sentiment are clearly bearish: current price 74862.7, down 1.4% in 24 hours, trading volume only 6.029 million, 4-hour drop from high -8.42%, order book buy/sell ratio 0.27, selling pressure dominates; funding rate 0.0044% still positive, coin-margined positions 34,000, longs remain crowded and uncleared. Strategy: lightly short at rebound to 75385, stop loss at 76120, target 73465; if it pulls back and stabilizes at 73310, can go short-term long, stop loss 72890, target 74560, single position no more than 10%.
——This is only a personal opinion, not investment advice, wish you smooth trading.——
$BTC#美伊外交斡旋持续，霍尔木兹通航分歧待解
#美伊外交斡旋持续，霍尔木兹通航分歧待解
$BTC Core Trader 57 just opened a short position of 0.52956 $BTC with 6x leverage, with a nominal value of about $39,900. This trade hasn't concluded yet, but I'd like to use it to explain a common mistake beginners make: position value does not equal the margin invested.
📌 Roughly calculating based on the nominal value of $39,857.86, 6x leverage corresponds to an initial margin of about $6,643, though the actual amount depends on the margin mode and other conditions. Assuming the price rises 1% from the entry price, the short position would lose about $399, which is roughly 6% of this margin, excluding fees and other costs. Price fluctuations affect the entire position, so having less margin does not mean the loss amount is also small.
I believe understanding nominal exposure is more important than just focusing on leverage multiples. A common mistake beginners make is treating the $39,900 as principal and then multiplying it again by 6x, which overestimates the risk. My reminder to myself is: first distinguish between principal and position size before making judgments about this short position.The numbers: guidance is $250M–$265M; consensus sits near $257M, roughly +10% QoQ from Q2’s record $234M. But GAAP gross margin is guided to 29%–31%, down from 36.1% in Q2, so growth may come with thinner profit. The Neutron issue: on Oct 14 the company pushed first launch from Q4 2026 to 2027 after inspectors found voids in the carbon-fiber layers of the forward dome. No new date yet; management expects rebuild and cryogenic testing to finish around Q1 2027. Management also tied positive adjust$SIGN 15m · Volume Breakout
Volume increased 578.2 times, closing above the high of the previous 12 hours at 0.010010
Current price 0.010981 ｜ +17.1% above the moving average cluster
Basis: Upward volume-price breakout appearing in a bearish context
Risk: 17.1% away from the moving average cluster; long-term trend still bearish; not a trend-following bull, prone to spike and fall back; $BTC, $ETH also bearish simultaneously
Strategy: Observe for reversal (after long-term bearish, upward volume breakout)
Plan: No position opening. Wait for a pullback that does not fall back to the moving average cluster (upper edge around 0.009381), stabilize on 1h timeframe, then consider going long Hacker-linked wallet opens a long $BTC , short $ETH pair trade
A newly created wallet received 3,100 ETH from Tornado Cash, swapped it for about $6.92M USDC, and moved the funds to Hyperliquid, according to on-chain tracker Lookonchain.
1. It then opened a 20x long on 169.47 BTC, worth about $12.84M.
2. It also opened a 20x short on 5,740 ETH, worth about $12.83M.
3. Positions show BTC entry near $75,762 and ETH entry near $2,233.A detail: $ETH MFI is currently below 50.
Price ETH: $2,241.4 with a relatively stable 24-hour change rate.
Bot signals show discrepancies: H4 bearish, D1 bullish. The daily bottom is rising, but short-term momentum is weak. D1 exponential moving average (EMA) directions are inconsistent. The daily K-line MFI closed at 43.77. Calculated price and volume both tend to decline. This does not represent the token's deposit or withdrawal amounts.
Support at 2,206: H4 closing price below this will confirm loss of support.After the non-farm payroll data, gold clearly faced short-term pressure. On the day the data was released, it quickly dropped to around 4000, then although it rebounded somewhat, it is still fluctuating around 4100. Both bulls and bears are quite conflicted.
The core issue is that the December rate hike expectations have been reignited. With such strong employment, the Federal Reserve has no reason to immediately turn dovish. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are rising accordingly, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold, so funds naturally lean towards waiting and watching. Additionally, recent volatility in tech stocks has made market risk appetite unstable, so gold, as a safe-haven asset, hasn't benefited much.
The key focus this week is the CPI data. If inflation data remains firm, rate hike expectations will strengthen further, and gold prices will likely continue to face pressure. The 4050 and even 4000 levels will become important support; if broken, prices may test lower levels. Conversely, if CPI shows a clear decline and market bets on further rate hikes cool down, gold could strengthen again, challenging the 4150-4200 range.
Medium to long-term support remains: geopolitical tensions have not fully eased, and central bank gold purchases continue, all limiting gold's downside. So, short-term is likely to remain a high-level consolidation. Don't rush to chase highs; waiting for a pullback near support before acting would be more prudent. $XAU $BTC
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ What would happen if Core returned to 2U, and what would you do?
I want to sell all my 50,000 coins and never hold them again.
CORE is currently around 0.012; to get back to 2U, it would have to increase more than 160 times. Let's be realistic.
The official recently called for the next stage of decentralization, but it's all empty talk. Of the 97 million coins stolen, only 68 million were recovered. Trust has long collapsed.
On-chain DeFi locked only 3.82 million USD, DEX daily trading volume is 900 USD, basically in a coma. Bithumb delisted it on November 30. Out of 34 exchanges, only 13 remain. Liquidity is drying up fast. What can drive the price up?
Foreigners still reminisce about the 6.47 high, but validators dropped from 31 to 13, just one step away from shutdown. No matter how deep the consensus, if no one produces blocks, it’s useless.
To get back to 2U, it requires official compensation to be implemented, exchanges to recover, and the chain to revive. None of these have happened yet. Don’t live on faith; first think about whether you can safely exit before dreaming.
Look at other public chains like $NEAR, which started at 0.8U in March and slowly climbed to 6U by October. Although it has dropped now, it gave retail investors a chance to exit.
Look at $SUI, this public chain is currently priced around 0.8, with over 4 billion coins in circulation. I think 0.8 is not low for it. As for Core, I really don’t want to say anything more.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 "During a four-year term, you can't ask your sons to stop their business," I think this sentence carries more weight than the oil analogy: the clock of business operation doesn't pause just because a presidential term begins, but the market has to face the cost of the overlap between the two.
When Trump responded to questions about conflicts of interest involving himself and his family business, he equated crypto business with traditional commercial assets. What I care more about after reading this is not that crypto is finally regarded as a "legitimate business," but how this identity overlap will affect the market's understanding of policies. My judgment is that this should not be directly counted as a positive for the industry.
The reason is very practical: if policymakers' families simultaneously operate related businesses, the market may interpret policy signals and commercial interests as mixed together. This is my speculation, not a concluded fact. For ordinary players, the trouble lies in whether the same statement represents the direction of industry rules or the stance of a certain type of business. The threshold for judging information may therefore become higher.
When I read information, I deliberately separate "industry recognition" from "rule credibility"; the former can bring emotion, while the latter relates to long-term expectations. If supportive crypto policies emerge later, what specific information would you rely on to judge whether it is expanding industry opportunities or favoring specific enterprises?$SNDK consolidated sideways over the weekend, then launched a surprise attack in the early morning and successfully dropped!! Top-tier strategy🔥
Short position at 840, caught the lowest point at 806 for a small double gain, isn't it great to not watch the market over the weekend and calmly take profits while waiting for returns?
Storage semiconductors are too weak, Nvidia led the decline. This drop clearly targets the AI bubble market cap!! The speed of data center construction and the revaluation of capital expenditure returns have caused semiconductors to be questioned again.
This morning showed a deep V-shaped drop, now the price has returned to the starting point. If you ask whether to short again, the answer is definitely yes!! At the current position of 845, you can lightly test the wave with a small position, targeting 810!!Today is the most stable among the mainstream coins I've been watching: since 0:00, it has only dropped about 0.6%, while the other 11 mainstream coins have fallen between 1.4% and 3.7% during the same period.
However, the contract side has been consistently bearish. Since November, the perpetual funding rate has settled 26 times, with 22 times being negative; the 08:00 settlement today was -0.0183%, and the 4 PM one is currently estimated at -0.0235%, which may still change before the time. The perpetual price has also consistently been slightly lower than the spot price.
Positions haven't decreased either. Around the big fluctuations on October 30, OKEx's total contract positions doubled from about $14.3 million to about $28.6 million; since November 3, it has remained between $23.6 million and $25.4 million, currently about $23.7 million.
The price hasn't moved much, shorts have been paying, and positions haven't moved. I tend to think these are positions holding spot assets while placing short orders on contracts to hedge, rather than someone aggressively dumping. If someone were really dumping, this coin wouldn't be the one with the smallest drop today. So the recent negative funding rate on this coin is not very meaningful as a bearish signal; the change to watch for is if the roughly $23.7 million position suddenly drops significantly one day.
$TRX $TRX
Tron has become a major route for stablecoin transfers, especially USDT, which makes it more of a payments rail than a smart-contract showcase. That strength also creates dependence on a single asset's flows. Stablecoin transfer volume and regulatory attention around issuers are the factors worth following.On Sunday night, Bitcoin dropped 2.77% in 15 minutes, briefly hitting $73,708, a new low since August.
Ethereum fared worse, falling below $2,100, hitting a low of $2,063.
About $1 billion worth of liquidations occurred across the network in 24 hours, with $913 million from long positions; the most intense hour saw $745 million liquidated.
The trigger for the drop is not within the crypto circle: Senator Blumenthal sent letters on November 5 to Binance, Tether, and two crypto companies linked to the Trump family, demanding records by January 4, 2027.
This date is calculated: the new Congress convenes on January 3, and he will take charge of the Senate investigative subcommittee the next day, holding subpoena power.
On November 3, the day Democrats won both chambers, Bitcoin even surged past $80,000, but now all gains have been given back.
I think this round of decline is due to "regulatory expectations," not Bitcoin itself; money is waiting to see the new Congress in January, observing rather than chasing.
Invalidation points: Bitcoin must close above $80,000 with volume, or Blumenthal must publicly say it’s an investigation only, no penalties.
Do you think Bitcoin will break below $73,000 first before January, or will it reclaim $78,000 first?
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP
#MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩 Suddenly feel this chart is scary
From 201·~2017, 2019~2021, BTC was accelerating upward.
But from 2022~2025, BTC is generally rising linearly.
Brother Feng hopes that with the addition of ETFs, the market becomes more mature and rational, rather than BTC's upward momentum being insufficient.
Brother Feng, because he is deeply involved in this industry, inevitably has some bias. So here he also wants to advise himself to be rational and not to participate in this industry based on past historical empiricism. #RocketLab Earnings Preview: How is the Neutron Rocket Progressing? $SNDK $SKHY Tech stocks are already stretched to the limit, unable to make any significant moves.
Folks, the top strategy I reminded you about last week—not to bottom-fish but to keep shorting—has perfectly played out. Sideways consolidation wearing down your mindset? No, no, no, take profits directly and close all positions!!
Now AI, storage, and semiconductors are all too weak, with Nvidia leading the charge. Coupled with some news about Nvidia's CEO, the situation has become uncontrollable. Korean stock investors are even more anxious, with a deep V-shaped move in the early session. If you ask me whether you can bottom-fish, my answer remains no.
Currently, there is basically no capital supporting tech stocks from below; the bottom is unfathomably deep. Blind bottom-fishing will only make you fuel the decline. My strategy remains primarily to short on rebounds.
SanDisk rebounds to around 850-860 for short entry. At the current price of 840, you can also start with a light position, targeting a wave down to 820-800.
$SKHYNIX rebounds to around 880-890 for short entry, targeting around 830.
All of the above require careful position management and reserving space for averaging down.
#ASTS推进手机直连卫星服务，商业化进展待披露
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ Seeing the news of a large buy order, my first reaction is not to get excited and follow, but to remind myself not to take someone else's position as my own answer. I don't play with high leverage; holding spot assets means I want to be less swayed by intraday fluctuations. Anyway, I just hold and don't move.
According to Ember monitoring, an ETH swing whale accumulated 10,000 $ETH after today's drop, spending about 21.55 million USDT. The amount is indeed significant, but the term "swing whale" is something I think is more worth pondering than how much was bought.
My judgment is that this has some reference value for short-term sentiment but is still noise for long-term value. Someone taking the position can give onlookers a bit of confidence; however, the holding period of swing funds may not align with that of long-term holders, so it cannot be directly interpreted as a long-term bullish signal.
Moreover, this purchase itself does not provide evidence of improved network usage or application demand, nor can the overall capital direction be inferred from a single address alone. If we later see sustained real demand growth, then I would consider it a more substantial long-term signal. This is my observation approach.
Big players have their own rhythm, and I stick to my own patience. Especially, don't add leverage to yourself just because of a whale's big buy order; judging direction and being able to withstand volatility are two different things. Even the whales can't hold on! A big player holding $253 million in long positions has still fallen in this sharp drop.
At 6 AM today, this sudden sell-off directly wiped out his long positions worth $140 million, resulting in a paper loss of $61.41 million. Many are guessing that this round of dumping targeted this heavy holder.
Just ETH alone cleared 63,000 coins, with losses close to $50 million, and the BTC positions were also swept away. Now, $113 million in long positions remain, still holding with an unrealized loss of over $12 million.
The key liquidation levels ahead are $BTC C at 72197 and $ETH TH at 2004. If these break further, it could easily trigger a new round of cascading liquidations.
In the world of contracts, everyone is equal. Manage your positions and seize intraday points,ETH flash crash 8% shock for 40 minutes: leverage liquidation cascade strikes again
This morning, ETH perpetual contracts experienced a one-minute vertical plunge, dropping straight from 2,236 to 2,051.90, instantly wiping out about 8%, then recovering to around 2,135. The speed of the drop far exceeded the magnitude, a textbook liquidation cascade: long leverage built up over a week at high levels was triggered in a chain reaction by a single spike. The background is also unfavorable: Fed minutes leaned hawkish, December rate hike expectations rose, the yen surged sharply, oil prices broke $100, and risk assets were already jittery; ETH ETFs have seen net outflows for several consecutive days, with institutional buying absent. News triggered the spark, leverage amplified it. Don't chase shorts, and don't rush to bottom-fish; first watch how the 2,180–2,220 trapped zone digests the pressure. Opening a long position worth $100,000, many people's first reaction might be "a big player is bullish, showing strong confidence." This time, the wallet Core Trader 12 opened a long XYZ100 position with 30x leverage, with a nominal value of about $100,000. I, however, think that directly equating the position amount with a confidence scale can easily lead to misjudgment.
On the contrary, I prefer to treat it as a clue to be verified rather than strong evidence of bullishness. There are two reasons: roughly calculating by dividing the nominal value by leverage, the corresponding margin is about $3,334, not actually putting up $100,000 principal to bet on the direction; this monitoring only shows one long position, and if it belongs to a hedging portfolio, a single long leg does not represent an overall bullish stance—this is my speculation, not a known fact.
I would first ask what role this position plays in the entire wallet. If you could only check one piece of information, would you choose whether to continue adding longs later, or whether there is any opposite exposure? Friends who insist "this is strong bullishness" are welcome to bring their reasons to debate.South Korea has given itself a three-month grace period starting today.
Friday's drop was unbearable to watch. South Korea fell six points to close at 5,059, marking the tenth circuit breaker this year. Japan has retraced more than 20% from its June peak, entering a bear market.
I thought they would inject real money to rescue, but instead, they postponed it. The 140% credit guarantee required by brokers does not need to be maintained for three months, starting today. In other words, the money that should be replenished upon maturity is not forced to be topped up for now. On the day of the announcement, the decline narrowed from eight points to three and a half.
But the accounts haven't decreased; after three months, it will still be calculated as usual. These three months are just a grace period without pressure.
What the market fears is never the drop itself, but being chased to top up funds. If you can't top up, the system clears your position directly, and after clearing, the decline continues.
JPMorgan estimates that in those two days, trend strategies and borrowed money sold over $70 billion worth of ETFs, with 90% concentrated in semiconductors and the Nasdaq. SoftBank's US Treasury bonds are also falling, and Asian investment-grade spreads have widened to the widest since July last year. The cost of borrowing is rising, signaling a cooling trend.
Oil, on the other hand, dropped 13% in a week, the steepest in over five years. But over the weekend, there were four rounds of attacks, with three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz hitting mines. Cheap does not mean safe.
This morning we have our CPI and PPI, and tomorrow night the US October CPI, the last data before the rate decision. I'll watch first and comment after the numbers come out.
Personal record sharing, not investment advice. What do you think over there? $ZEC This trade was quite comfortable. A couple of days ago, I quietly took some profits, the position wasn't large, more like a mouse-level position, but my mindset was pretty steady.
Just saw some news: ZEC might be gearing up for a move, shorts have piled up a lot. Checked the data, the contract funding rate dropped from +0.01 to -0.008, the neighbor is even more extreme at -0.027, and the number is still climbing.
My understanding is: there are indeed many shorts in the contracts, but on the spot side, people keep buying, the price is very firm, nothing unusual observed. Something that won’t fall is actually quite tough for shorts.
So I'll just keep holding and wait for daylight.Continuing from the previous text
$ETH is the most heavily shaken among the mainstream this time, dropping nearly 10%, and the intraday rebound strength is also relatively weak. The reason is that hackers shorted ETH, causing panic selling in the market. There is likely to be no large fluctuation during the day; we will wait for the 22:30 US stock market opening to see the capital situation. However, the 2050 level on Ethereum is the strongest quarterly support line. If it does not break later, that will be the range bottom. If it breaks again and cannot hold, it will head toward around 1750.
Regarding the US stock market, the biggest drop was in $NVDA. Nvidia's market value evaporated by 3 trillion, and tech giants collectively plunged. Of course, Jensen Huang going public with G does not affect the price trend 😂. After the midterm elections, the Democratic Party's victory hindered the construction of AI infrastructure, combined with BTC's current downturn and leveraged-driven simultaneous selling impact.
Personally, I think this is just a correction. Going forward, attention should be paid to the Q4 earnings report on November 17, whether the gross margin can hold at 74%, and whether the data center delay ratio will continue to worsen, which are the key points for $SNDK.
Back to the initial question, I personally do not think the AI bubble will repeat the previous heavy collapse, for two reasons: supply-demand needs and production capacity demand.
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $BTC $ETH $SOL Closed the weekly candle today, the bulls were liquidated once again, it's really tough, the bulls have been around for three or four years, is it really that hard just to make some money?
From the 7-day liquidation chart, over 90% of the bulls have been cleared out, the remaining bulls are mostly low leverage, so further decline doesn't make much sense.
Even if the price breaks below 720,000, it would only liquidate about 100 to 200 million USD, and this doesn't account for retail investors increasing margin at that time. With increased margin, the liquidation price would definitely be further away, so the remaining bulls holding on tightly are hard for the market makers to harvest.
Liquidations mainly target those who like to play with high leverage. At this point, it should be preparing to rise to cut the shorts. If the price rises again to 820,000, it will liquidate 2 billion USD worth of shorts.
So, do you think Bitcoin will continue to fall or will it pump to harvest the shorts? Historically, in every cycle like this, it's basically a double liquidation. The timing might be delayed, but it definitely won't be absent.
It will give you the feeling that it can't rise, slowly and finally pump up directly to liquidate the shorts. So this stage is really hard to endure. If you can't hold on, then you might be out of the crypto circle. Only those who endure will be worthy to see that glimmer of hopeful dawn～～#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ The biggest victim in the crypto world today was born.
Huang Renxun apologized by email for "cheating," causing the on-chain Nvidia token to drop 4%.
Then, a bunch of guys fomo-ed into long Nvidia positions and got liquidated, with the largest single liquidation hitting $35,000.
Retail investors bullish on AI bought long positions but ended up dying because of the CEO's private life.
Elon Musk and Bill Ackman both posted messages supporting Huang. The big players are joking around, while retail investors got liquidated silently.
#英伟达启动独立调查，管理层稳定性受关注 #RocketLab Earnings Preview: How is the Neutron Rocket Progressing? The market has recently been suppressed by geopolitical tensions, and this round of US-Iran negotiations might become a new turning point for the market.
Trump has signaled a diplomatic resolution; if the US-Iran situation continues to ease, crude oil prices may face downward pressure, and global market risk aversion could also decrease.
What does this mean for the crypto market?
On one hand, reduced war risk is favorable for restoring risk appetite; on the other hand, if falling oil prices can ease inflationary pressures, it might also improve market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
But don’t rush to be blindly bullish—progress in negotiations, the US dollar trend, and US Treasury yields remain key variables.
What I’m more focused on is whether this news can truly drive a volume-backed rebound in BTC, rather than just another short-lived emotional rally. #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $BTC $ETH To pour some cold water first, I don't think "the team hasn't sold directly" can just close this matter. My judgment leans bearish, but the bearishness is not about anyone's character, rather about this token distribution method: if the market treats the response as risk removal, I think it's an overread.
Delta disclosed that early on, 2.6% of the supply, i.e., 26 million $DELTA, was allocated to partners via OTC in exchange for operational funds and marketing support; among them, 16.5 million have been sold, and 9.5 million remain in two receiving wallets, with no vesting period, lock-up, or other restrictions. I have two reasons: on-chain records can support the claim that the team hasn't sold directly, but cannot offset the supply pressure caused by partner sales; responsibility attribution and market absorption are two different things; the team admits it cannot control subsequent sales, and communication has not reached consensus, meaning it is still uncertain when the remaining tokens will enter the market. In my speculation, if this uncertainty persists, holders may demand a higher risk discount.
Of course, the bulls might also be right: remaining tokens do not equal immediate dumping, and sales that have occurred may have already been absorbed by the market. If later we can see verifiable constraints on the disposal of remaining tokens, or if continuous sales are truly absorbed by real demand, I will retract my bearish stance. Are you bullish or bearish? Regarding these 9.5 million tokens, what evidence makes you believe the supply risk has been absorbed? Please state your reasons.$UNITREE 73% of people are short, today it directly surged to 109, shorts got squeezed
Unitree hit a high of 109.50 today, breaking through the 100 mark.
But the really interesting part isn't the price increase, it's the data. 72.86% of accounts are short, the long-short ratio is only 0.37. The funding rate is -0.74%, what does that mean? Shorts have to pay longs 0.74% every 8 hours, three times a day, which is 2.2%. Over three days, the funding alone eats up 6.6% of the principal.
This is why the price surged so sharply today. It's not that people are bullish on Unitree, it's that there are too many shorts. When the price rises a bit, some shorts are forced to close their positions, closing requires buying back, buying back pushes the price higher, and the more it rises, the more shorts close.
This is called a short squeeze. Beichen mentioned this risk before: when shorts are too crowded, a single bullish candle can trigger a chain reaction. It happened today.
In terms of trading, wait for a pullback to 102-104 to enter, stop loss at 99, first target 109.5. The short squeeze isn't over yet, shorts are still paying. As long as it doesn't break 100, the trend is on the bulls' side! #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ Last Thursday's crash pulled global risk assets straight back to reality from the post-election euphoria. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 5.52% in a single day, the S&P 500 dropped 4.36%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 3.44%; the Nasdaq 100 fell 6.4%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped about 12%. The sell-off was concentrated in the AI and data center industry chains, with Nvidia falling over 9%, Tesla nearly 11%, and crypto-related stocks like Coinbase and Strategy also down about 9%. This was not a negative event for any single company, but rather the market reassessing the return cycle of AI investments. The new political landscape may increase uncertainties around data center construction, energy consumption, and industry regulation, while some chip companies' earnings and guidance failed to meet previous high expectations. As the most crowded AI trades began to unwind, the capital naturally cut back first on the highest-valued and most elastic assets. The crypto market then came under synchronized pressure. $BTC quickly fell from around $81,000 to below $76,000, with about $1.09 billion liquidated in 24 hours, affecting over 210,000 traders, the vast majority of whom were long positions. Stocks and cryptocurrencies fell together during the same trading session, indicating that the market was undergoing an overall risk contraction rather than a new credit crisis within the crypto industry. On Friday, the US stock market did see the first round of recovery. The Nasdaq rebounded 1.1%, the S&P 500 rose about 0.3%, and Nvidia recovered about 2.8%; however, the Dow Jones still fell about 0.5%, and none of the three major indices recovered Thursday's losses Brothers, $1.49 billion liquidated, 240,000 people wiped out, $1.29 billion all long positions. This overnight cold shower drenched the bulls to the bone.
First, let's look at the most brutal liquidation data.
In the past 24 hours, the entire network forced liquidations totaled about $1.49 billion, with longs taking $1.29 billion, accounting for 86.8%. More than 240,000 accounts were directly wiped out. BTC liquidations were $475 million, ETH liquidations $331 million. The largest single order was a BTC long on Binance of about $11.09 million; within one hour, $629 million was liquidated, almost all longs.
The price is already unbearable to watch. BTC crashed from above 81,000 down to 75,463, hitting the lowest point since September 16; ETH fell from 2,437 to around 2,220, a drop of over 7% in 24 hours.
The trigger is not within the crypto circle.
After the midterm elections, with Democrats controlling both houses, the market started pricing in a slowdown in AI data center construction. The Nasdaq plunged 5.5%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index once dropped 10%. The tech stock sell-off transmitted to the crypto market, with BTC’s 50-week moving average at 75,733 briefly breached. But what really amplified the drop was the leveraged longs’ own stampede—previous rebounds mainly relied on short covering, with open interest barely increasing; once the direction reversed, chain liquidations pushed prices off a cliff.
But more worrisome than the crash is the ongoing bleeding of ETFs.
Last week, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.28 billion, the worst single week since late June; ETH spot ETFs had a net outflow of $365 million, marking the sixth consecutive week of losses. BlackRock’s IBIT was the largest outflow driver, with over $400 million withdrawn in a single day on Friday. The cumulative fund flow for US BTC spot ETFs in 2026 has turned negative, with a net outflow of about $914 million year-to-date.
On the surface, it looks like institutions are retreating. But the real signal is on-chain.
This morning, a giant whale sold 410 BTC, directly swapping it for 14,000 ETH on a DEX. At the same time, an old wallet of the Ethereum Foundation sent over 4,000 ETH to Kraken.
Leveraged longs are being cleaned out, ETF funds are continuously flowing out, but whales are shifting chips from BTC to ETH amid the decline. Three forces, three directions, all happening simultaneously.
Here’s the direct strategy:
BTC is now holding hard around 75,700; 75,000 to 75,400 is the bulls’ last stronghold. Once this position breaks, there’s a deep pit below. Don’t think the bottom is reached just because $1.4 billion was liquidated; clean liquidations don’t mean buy orders return. Wait until ETF outflows stop or volume picks up to reclaim above 76,500 before talking about a rebound. Before that, any bottom fishing is catching a flying knife.
ETH’s 2,200 is the psychological defense line and the last dignity of this wave of bulls. Hold it, and there’s still hope; break it, and the cost zone where whales are repositioning will be tested. With six consecutive weeks of ETF outflows, ETH’s support is much more fragile than BTC’s. Don’t heavily bet on a bottom at 2,200; be careful not to lose even your last pair of underwear.
Leverage is dead, but spot hasn’t arrived; ETFs are running, but whales are rotating. In this market, the most dangerous thing is not being wrong on direction, but mistaking liquidation clearing for buyback. Hold your hands, wait for real support signals before acting.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 At 5 a.m., a single spike directly pierced the key support at 74,000, with the latest low data reaching 73,333, consistent with the expected trend. Recently, there is a very important piece of news: Nasdaq has started 23/5 trading, meaning continuous trading five days a week, 23 hours a day, with only a one-hour maintenance window. Please note that the official implementation date is December 6. This has little to do with blockchain technology and continues to use traditional technology. Why does Lao Cui think this news is very important? It resembles a trial run of tokenization. Although there are no traces of the crypto world in the short term, the inspiration for 23-hour trading definitely comes from earlier tokenization companies. The profits are also visible: the Solana ecosystem's Real World Assets (RWA) total market value has reached $4.8 billion. Among them, tokenized funds amount to $3.7 billion, tokenized stocks $1.1 billion, and tokenized commodities $31.9 million. This data is from yesterday. The release of this kind of news acts as a bottom support during the bear market cycle for the crypto world. In this regard, Lao Cui finds it hard to see Bitcoin's price falling particularly low. Even though this bear market cycle has begun and the news pressure is so intense, Lao Cui still does not dare to expect a new low so far. You can review history: Bitcoin's darkest moment also started with domestic crackdowns. At that time, Bitcoin was controlled by Grayscale, with almost no major capital involvement. A single operation of around one billion could cause a disastrous crash in the crypto market. What about now?$BTC, you’re too sneaky, always launching surprise attacks when liquidity is low on weekends. No wonder I had nightmares last night.
At 4 to 5 AM, Bitcoin slammed down 3% in one go, and $ETH plunged even harder by 7%. This violent deleveraging wiped out over 700 million dollars from the longs—truly brutal!
But looking at the long-short data, Bitcoin longs still hold over 70%, only three percentage points less than before the sharp drop. After the dump by the big players, the price quickly bounced back to 73,000, showing strong long interest there. Many shorts have closed positions, and most liquidations were from high leverage.
It seems those liquidated liquidated, those taking profits took profits, and those bottom-fishing bottom-fished. Human joys and sorrows are not shared!
This kind of sharp break and quick V-shaped recovery looks exactly like the price bottoming after sweeping out long liquidity. But don’t think it’s stable as ever. The outside world is full of dangers: US stock ETFs see daily net outflows of 300 to 400 million, AI tech funds are collectively fleeing to safety, non-farm payroll data supports rate hike expectations, and policy uncertainty looms overhead. None of these are reassuring.
So,
Longs, I advise you to take it easy! BTC in the past 24 hours is down 1.4%, clearly outperforming ETH and SOL, indicating that capital still trusts large market cap assets more.
It must be said, compared to the record from last night, BTC was down 1.3%, ETH down 5.0%, SOL down 4.0%; now BTC is $74,839.61, ETH $2,127.26, SOL $86.53. The overnight changes are already significant, so today's judgment cannot rely on yesterday's.
BTC's relative strength usually indicates that capital wants exposure but is not yet willing to take on too much risk. For altcoins, this is not an environment for a full-scale offensive.
BTC can continue to be watched, but altcoins need to be more selective.
$BTC $ETH "Morning Spike: Bulls Pay Tuition First, V-Shaped Rebound Still to Be Verified"
This morning, the crypto market dealt a heavy blow to the bulls. ETH plunged sharply from around 2220 to 2051, BTC slid from 75700 to 73385. Many woke up to stop losses, some even liquidated directly. Within 4 hours, long positions worth $740 million were liquidated, including about $320 million in ETH, which is $100 million more than BTC, clearly showing the crowded leverage.
Prices then pulled back, showing a V-shaped recovery on the chart, but this looks more like a technical rebound after a sharp drop rather than a confirmed bottom. The battle between bulls and bears near the moving averages has just begun: only if the pullback holds above support with volume can it be considered a true bottom; if the rebound is weak, the bulls might just be a flash in the pan.
Don't rush to conclude a reversal in the short term; the market may still experience repeated shakeouts this morning. The real variable is the CPI on the 10th; controlling position size before the data is more important than trying to catch the bottom. The above is just market observation.
$BTC $ETH
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ Summary of External Negative Factors:
1. Fed December rate hike expectations rise, US Treasury yields remain high
👉Negative impact: High valuation growth stocks such as STAR Market 50, AI, semiconductors, photovoltaics; Hong Kong stocks, Chinese concept stocks, and heavily held northbound stocks; a stronger US dollar tends to cause northbound capital outflows.
👉Relatively resistant: High dividend, dividend-paying, and banking stocks.
2. Nvidia plunged overnight
👉Negative impact: Nvidia's industrial chain, optical modules, PCBs, AI servers, computing power leasing, HBM; sentiment pressure on STAR Market computing power sector.
👉Hedge: Domestic computing power independent lines (differentiated, not all falling together).
3. Repeated Middle East tensions, Strait of Hormuz shipping risks, oil price volatility
👉Negative impact: Aviation, logistics, downstream chemicals, consumer sectors, and most growth stocks; a sharp rise in oil prices will push inflation, further locking in expectations against rate cuts.
👉Positive (hedge): Oil and gas, petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, military industry.
4. Berkshire Hathaway cash reserves remain high, overseas institutions cautious
👉Negative impact: Global risk appetite, Hong Kong stocks, and high-valuation thematic growth stocks are prone to foreign capital reduction; large-cap sentiment tends to be weak.
👉Impact characteristic: Mainly sentiment-driven, not fundamental negative.
5. Goldman Sachs lowers year-end gold target price
👉Negative impact: Gold stocks, precious metals sector, gold-related targets in non-ferrous metals.
👉Support: Central banks continue gold purchases, medium- to long-term logic remains, only short-term expectations are lowered.
The above is blockchain quantitative analysis and does not constitute investment advice.Bitcoin mining difficulty has not returned to its historical peak for 374 consecutive days.
The peak was at 155.97T on October 29, 2025. This is the longest "no new high" period in the network's history, surpassing the 364 days after the 2011 crash and also exceeding the period after China's ban in 2021.
In the past, such a prolonged difficulty stagnation had only two explanations: a crash or a ban by a major country. This time, the explanation is: AI is bidding highest $BTC also plummeted, breaking below the 76K lifeline
The catalyst surprisingly was Huang Renxun's extramarital affair and chip loss, causing Nvidia's stock price to plunge intraday, which also dragged down BTC's 76K lifeline.
BTC currently breaking below 76K aligns with my forecast in last week's market report:
Is the bull market a correction or an end?
First, look at the structural pattern: 76K is the bottoming, 70K is the dividing line for a deep correction.
70K is the boundary between a healthy correction and a deep correction, overlapping the large cycle 0.5 and small cycle 0.382 levels. Breaking below it changes the nature of the correction but does not mean the bull market has failed.
My judgment:
Short term, 76K bottoming, the rebound is structural, not trend-based.
Medium term bearish bias, the decline is a choppy downward drift, not a waterfall crash; falling near 70K is a high probability event.
Long term, the bull market structure is intact, 70K is the dividing line, 58K is the endpoint. Need to watch whether the AI bubble bursts in 2027 triggering a US stock market crash and global financial crisis.”
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $RAVE has no positive news; 95% of the pump-and-dump operators are highly controlling the market. The overall trend is bearish.
OKX long-short ratio shows an "extreme bull trap."
Retail investor long-short ratio: 3.57 (extremely bullish)! Retail investors are frantically bottom-fishing.
Whale count long-short ratio: 1.62 (bullish).
Whale position long-short ratio: 0.74 (extremely bearish)! Main force inclination: extremely bearish!
Conclusion: The 1.62 ratio in number of people is a facade; the real capital positions are directly crushed down to 0.74. The retail investors' 3.57 fervent long positions are the perfect counterparty to the main force's 0.74 short positions.
RaveDAO issued an official statement on April 19, 2026, clearly stating that it will sell part of the unlocked tokens at an appropriate time according to the token release schedule (TRS), with proceeds used for operations, global recruitment, marketing, strategic acquisitions, and charitable projects.
$BTC $ETH #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ Looking at this response, it's like handing over the car keys and then coming back to explain: I didn't press the accelerator. Fine, but the problem is that the speed limit wasn't even set when handing over the car 😂
Delta stated that early OTC allocated 26 million $DELTA tokens to partners, accounting for 2.6% of the supply, in exchange for operational funds and marketing support, of which 16.5 million have been sold. These tokens have no vesting period, lock-up, or other restrictions. The team says they cannot control the partners' sales and published on-chain records to prove they did not sell directly.
What I care more about is the allocation rules, not who pressed the sell button: without lock-up, marketing cooperation may misalign with long-term expectations of token holders; public transaction records can explain the flow of funds but cannot compensate for prior constraints. These are not the same issue and "not selling personally" cannot replace an answer.
Do you value lock-up before cooperation more, or public transaction records after the fact? Choose one: do you want a seatbelt or a dashcam?9.5 million tokens are still in two receiving wallets. I tend to consider the worst-case scenario first: if the partners continue selling and the market cannot absorb it, the price pressure may increase. This is speculation, not a sell-off warning.
My judgment is that $DELTA's recent clarification did not eliminate the supply risk: the partners have no lock-up constraints, and the team has no authority to control sales. Explaining who is selling clearly does not mean the risk is gone. ⚠️ Ordinary people should first list the amount of loss they can bear per trade. When facing this kind of potential selling pressure, how much stop loss do you usually set per trade?