Orbit Post Sitemap
$SIGN 15m · Volume Breakout
Volume increased 578.2 times, closing above the high of the previous 12 hours at 0.010010
Current price 0.010981 ｜ +17.1% above the moving average cluster
Basis: Upward volume-price breakout appearing in a bearish context
Risk: 17.1% away from the moving average cluster; long-term trend still bearish; not a trend-following bull, prone to spike and fall back; $BTC, $ETH also bearish simultaneously
Strategy: Observe for reversal (after long-term bearish, upward volume breakout)
Plan: No position opening. Wait for a pullback that does not fall back to the moving average cluster (upper edge around 0.009381), stabilize on 1h timeframe, then consider going long Hacker-linked wallet opens a long $BTC , short $ETH pair trade
A newly created wallet received 3,100 ETH from Tornado Cash, swapped it for about $6.92M USDC, and moved the funds to Hyperliquid, according to on-chain tracker Lookonchain.
1. It then opened a 20x long on 169.47 BTC, worth about $12.84M.
2. It also opened a 20x short on 5,740 ETH, worth about $12.83M.
3. Positions show BTC entry near $75,762 and ETH entry near $2,233.A detail: $ETH MFI is currently below 50.
Price ETH: $2,241.4 with a relatively stable 24-hour change rate.
Bot signals show discrepancies: H4 bearish, D1 bullish. The daily bottom is rising, but short-term momentum is weak. D1 exponential moving average (EMA) directions are inconsistent. The daily K-line MFI closed at 43.77. Calculated price and volume both tend to decline. This does not represent the token's deposit or withdrawal amounts.
Support at 2,206: H4 closing price below this will confirm loss of support.After the non-farm payroll data, gold clearly faced short-term pressure. On the day the data was released, it quickly dropped to around 4000, then although it rebounded somewhat, it is still fluctuating around 4100. Both bulls and bears are quite conflicted.
The core issue is that the December rate hike expectations have been reignited. With such strong employment, the Federal Reserve has no reason to immediately turn dovish. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are rising accordingly, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold, so funds naturally lean towards waiting and watching. Additionally, recent volatility in tech stocks has made market risk appetite unstable, so gold, as a safe-haven asset, hasn't benefited much.
The key focus this week is the CPI data. If inflation data remains firm, rate hike expectations will strengthen further, and gold prices will likely continue to face pressure. The 4050 and even 4000 levels will become important support; if broken, prices may test lower levels. Conversely, if CPI shows a clear decline and market bets on further rate hikes cool down, gold could strengthen again, challenging the 4150-4200 range.
Medium to long-term support remains: geopolitical tensions have not fully eased, and central bank gold purchases continue, all limiting gold's downside. So, short-term is likely to remain a high-level consolidation. Don't rush to chase highs; waiting for a pullback near support before acting would be more prudent. $XAU $BTC
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ What would happen if Core returned to 2U, and what would you do?
I want to sell all my 50,000 coins and never hold them again.
CORE is currently around 0.012; to get back to 2U, it would have to increase more than 160 times. Let's be realistic.
The official recently called for the next stage of decentralization, but it's all empty talk. Of the 97 million coins stolen, only 68 million were recovered. Trust has long collapsed.
On-chain DeFi locked only 3.82 million USD, DEX daily trading volume is 900 USD, basically in a coma. Bithumb delisted it on November 30. Out of 34 exchanges, only 13 remain. Liquidity is drying up fast. What can drive the price up?
Foreigners still reminisce about the 6.47 high, but validators dropped from 31 to 13, just one step away from shutdown. No matter how deep the consensus, if no one produces blocks, it’s useless.
To get back to 2U, it requires official compensation to be implemented, exchanges to recover, and the chain to revive. None of these have happened yet. Don’t live on faith; first think about whether you can safely exit before dreaming.
Look at other public chains like $NEAR, which started at 0.8U in March and slowly climbed to 6U by October. Although it has dropped now, it gave retail investors a chance to exit.
Look at $SUI, this public chain is currently priced around 0.8, with over 4 billion coins in circulation. I think 0.8 is not low for it. As for Core, I really don’t want to say anything more.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 "During a four-year term, you can't ask your sons to stop their business," I think this sentence carries more weight than the oil analogy: the clock of business operation doesn't pause just because a presidential term begins, but the market has to face the cost of the overlap between the two.
When Trump responded to questions about conflicts of interest involving himself and his family business, he equated crypto business with traditional commercial assets. What I care more about after reading this is not that crypto is finally regarded as a "legitimate business," but how this identity overlap will affect the market's understanding of policies. My judgment is that this should not be directly counted as a positive for the industry.
The reason is very practical: if policymakers' families simultaneously operate related businesses, the market may interpret policy signals and commercial interests as mixed together. This is my speculation, not a concluded fact. For ordinary players, the trouble lies in whether the same statement represents the direction of industry rules or the stance of a certain type of business. The threshold for judging information may therefore become higher.
When I read information, I deliberately separate "industry recognition" from "rule credibility"; the former can bring emotion, while the latter relates to long-term expectations. If supportive crypto policies emerge later, what specific information would you rely on to judge whether it is expanding industry opportunities or favoring specific enterprises?$SNDK consolidated sideways over the weekend, then launched a surprise attack in the early morning and successfully dropped!! Top-tier strategy🔥
Short position at 840, caught the lowest point at 806 for a small double gain, isn't it great to not watch the market over the weekend and calmly take profits while waiting for returns?
Storage semiconductors are too weak, Nvidia led the decline. This drop clearly targets the AI bubble market cap!! The speed of data center construction and the revaluation of capital expenditure returns have caused semiconductors to be questioned again.
This morning showed a deep V-shaped drop, now the price has returned to the starting point. If you ask whether to short again, the answer is definitely yes!! At the current position of 845, you can lightly test the wave with a small position, targeting 810!!Today is the most stable among the mainstream coins I've been watching: since 0:00, it has only dropped about 0.6%, while the other 11 mainstream coins have fallen between 1.4% and 3.7% during the same period.
However, the contract side has been consistently bearish. Since November, the perpetual funding rate has settled 26 times, with 22 times being negative; the 08:00 settlement today was -0.0183%, and the 4 PM one is currently estimated at -0.0235%, which may still change before the time. The perpetual price has also consistently been slightly lower than the spot price.
Positions haven't decreased either. Around the big fluctuations on October 30, OKEx's total contract positions doubled from about $14.3 million to about $28.6 million; since November 3, it has remained between $23.6 million and $25.4 million, currently about $23.7 million.
The price hasn't moved much, shorts have been paying, and positions haven't moved. I tend to think these are positions holding spot assets while placing short orders on contracts to hedge, rather than someone aggressively dumping. If someone were really dumping, this coin wouldn't be the one with the smallest drop today. So the recent negative funding rate on this coin is not very meaningful as a bearish signal; the change to watch for is if the roughly $23.7 million position suddenly drops significantly one day.
$TRX $TRX
Tron has become a major route for stablecoin transfers, especially USDT, which makes it more of a payments rail than a smart-contract showcase. That strength also creates dependence on a single asset's flows. Stablecoin transfer volume and regulatory attention around issuers are the factors worth following.On Sunday night, Bitcoin dropped 2.77% in 15 minutes, briefly hitting $73,708, a new low since August.
Ethereum fared worse, falling below $2,100, hitting a low of $2,063.
About $1 billion worth of liquidations occurred across the network in 24 hours, with $913 million from long positions; the most intense hour saw $745 million liquidated.
The trigger for the drop is not within the crypto circle: Senator Blumenthal sent letters on November 5 to Binance, Tether, and two crypto companies linked to the Trump family, demanding records by January 4, 2027.
This date is calculated: the new Congress convenes on January 3, and he will take charge of the Senate investigative subcommittee the next day, holding subpoena power.
On November 3, the day Democrats won both chambers, Bitcoin even surged past $80,000, but now all gains have been given back.
I think this round of decline is due to "regulatory expectations," not Bitcoin itself; money is waiting to see the new Congress in January, observing rather than chasing.
Invalidation points: Bitcoin must close above $80,000 with volume, or Blumenthal must publicly say it’s an investigation only, no penalties.
Do you think Bitcoin will break below $73,000 first before January, or will it reclaim $78,000 first?
$BTC $ETH $TRUMP
#MSTR再卖1638枚比特币，规模腰斩 Suddenly feel this chart is scary
From 201·~2017, 2019~2021, BTC was accelerating upward.
But from 2022~2025, BTC is generally rising linearly.
Brother Feng hopes that with the addition of ETFs, the market becomes more mature and rational, rather than BTC's upward momentum being insufficient.
Brother Feng, because he is deeply involved in this industry, inevitably has some bias. So here he also wants to advise himself to be rational and not to participate in this industry based on past historical empiricism. #RocketLab Earnings Preview: How is the Neutron Rocket Progressing? $SNDK $SKHY Tech stocks are already stretched to the limit, unable to make any significant moves.
Folks, the top strategy I reminded you about last week—not to bottom-fish but to keep shorting—has perfectly played out. Sideways consolidation wearing down your mindset? No, no, no, take profits directly and close all positions!!
Now AI, storage, and semiconductors are all too weak, with Nvidia leading the charge. Coupled with some news about Nvidia's CEO, the situation has become uncontrollable. Korean stock investors are even more anxious, with a deep V-shaped move in the early session. If you ask me whether you can bottom-fish, my answer remains no.
Currently, there is basically no capital supporting tech stocks from below; the bottom is unfathomably deep. Blind bottom-fishing will only make you fuel the decline. My strategy remains primarily to short on rebounds.
SanDisk rebounds to around 850-860 for short entry. At the current price of 840, you can also start with a light position, targeting a wave down to 820-800.
$SKHYNIX rebounds to around 880-890 for short entry, targeting around 830.
All of the above require careful position management and reserving space for averaging down.
#ASTS推进手机直连卫星服务，商业化进展待披露
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ Seeing the news of a large buy order, my first reaction is not to get excited and follow, but to remind myself not to take someone else's position as my own answer. I don't play with high leverage; holding spot assets means I want to be less swayed by intraday fluctuations. Anyway, I just hold and don't move.
According to Ember monitoring, an ETH swing whale accumulated 10,000 $ETH after today's drop, spending about 21.55 million USDT. The amount is indeed significant, but the term "swing whale" is something I think is more worth pondering than how much was bought.
My judgment is that this has some reference value for short-term sentiment but is still noise for long-term value. Someone taking the position can give onlookers a bit of confidence; however, the holding period of swing funds may not align with that of long-term holders, so it cannot be directly interpreted as a long-term bullish signal.
Moreover, this purchase itself does not provide evidence of improved network usage or application demand, nor can the overall capital direction be inferred from a single address alone. If we later see sustained real demand growth, then I would consider it a more substantial long-term signal. This is my observation approach.
Big players have their own rhythm, and I stick to my own patience. Especially, don't add leverage to yourself just because of a whale's big buy order; judging direction and being able to withstand volatility are two different things. Even the whales can't hold on! A big player holding $253 million in long positions has still fallen in this sharp drop.
At 6 AM today, this sudden sell-off directly wiped out his long positions worth $140 million, resulting in a paper loss of $61.41 million. Many are guessing that this round of dumping targeted this heavy holder.
Just ETH alone cleared 63,000 coins, with losses close to $50 million, and the BTC positions were also swept away. Now, $113 million in long positions remain, still holding with an unrealized loss of over $12 million.
The key liquidation levels ahead are $BTC C at 72197 and $ETH TH at 2004. If these break further, it could easily trigger a new round of cascading liquidations.
In the world of contracts, everyone is equal. Manage your positions and seize intraday points,ETH flash crash 8% shock for 40 minutes: leverage liquidation cascade strikes again
This morning, ETH perpetual contracts experienced a one-minute vertical plunge, dropping straight from 2,236 to 2,051.90, instantly wiping out about 8%, then recovering to around 2,135. The speed of the drop far exceeded the magnitude, a textbook liquidation cascade: long leverage built up over a week at high levels was triggered in a chain reaction by a single spike. The background is also unfavorable: Fed minutes leaned hawkish, December rate hike expectations rose, the yen surged sharply, oil prices broke $100, and risk assets were already jittery; ETH ETFs have seen net outflows for several consecutive days, with institutional buying absent. News triggered the spark, leverage amplified it. Don't chase shorts, and don't rush to bottom-fish; first watch how the 2,180–2,220 trapped zone digests the pressure. Opening a long position worth $100,000, many people's first reaction might be "a big player is bullish, showing strong confidence." This time, the wallet Core Trader 12 opened a long XYZ100 position with 30x leverage, with a nominal value of about $100,000. I, however, think that directly equating the position amount with a confidence scale can easily lead to misjudgment.
On the contrary, I prefer to treat it as a clue to be verified rather than strong evidence of bullishness. There are two reasons: roughly calculating by dividing the nominal value by leverage, the corresponding margin is about $3,334, not actually putting up $100,000 principal to bet on the direction; this monitoring only shows one long position, and if it belongs to a hedging portfolio, a single long leg does not represent an overall bullish stance—this is my speculation, not a known fact.
I would first ask what role this position plays in the entire wallet. If you could only check one piece of information, would you choose whether to continue adding longs later, or whether there is any opposite exposure? Friends who insist "this is strong bullishness" are welcome to bring their reasons to debate.South Korea has given itself a three-month grace period starting today.
Friday's drop was unbearable to watch. South Korea fell six points to close at 5,059, marking the tenth circuit breaker this year. Japan has retraced more than 20% from its June peak, entering a bear market.
I thought they would inject real money to rescue, but instead, they postponed it. The 140% credit guarantee required by brokers does not need to be maintained for three months, starting today. In other words, the money that should be replenished upon maturity is not forced to be topped up for now. On the day of the announcement, the decline narrowed from eight points to three and a half.
But the accounts haven't decreased; after three months, it will still be calculated as usual. These three months are just a grace period without pressure.
What the market fears is never the drop itself, but being chased to top up funds. If you can't top up, the system clears your position directly, and after clearing, the decline continues.
JPMorgan estimates that in those two days, trend strategies and borrowed money sold over $70 billion worth of ETFs, with 90% concentrated in semiconductors and the Nasdaq. SoftBank's US Treasury bonds are also falling, and Asian investment-grade spreads have widened to the widest since July last year. The cost of borrowing is rising, signaling a cooling trend.
Oil, on the other hand, dropped 13% in a week, the steepest in over five years. But over the weekend, there were four rounds of attacks, with three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz hitting mines. Cheap does not mean safe.
This morning we have our CPI and PPI, and tomorrow night the US October CPI, the last data before the rate decision. I'll watch first and comment after the numbers come out.
Personal record sharing, not investment advice. What do you think over there? $ZEC This trade was quite comfortable. A couple of days ago, I quietly took some profits, the position wasn't large, more like a mouse-level position, but my mindset was pretty steady.
Just saw some news: ZEC might be gearing up for a move, shorts have piled up a lot. Checked the data, the contract funding rate dropped from +0.01 to -0.008, the neighbor is even more extreme at -0.027, and the number is still climbing.
My understanding is: there are indeed many shorts in the contracts, but on the spot side, people keep buying, the price is very firm, nothing unusual observed. Something that won’t fall is actually quite tough for shorts.
So I'll just keep holding and wait for daylight.Continuing from the previous text
$ETH is the most heavily shaken among the mainstream this time, dropping nearly 10%, and the intraday rebound strength is also relatively weak. The reason is that hackers shorted ETH, causing panic selling in the market. There is likely to be no large fluctuation during the day; we will wait for the 22:30 US stock market opening to see the capital situation. However, the 2050 level on Ethereum is the strongest quarterly support line. If it does not break later, that will be the range bottom. If it breaks again and cannot hold, it will head toward around 1750.
Regarding the US stock market, the biggest drop was in $NVDA. Nvidia's market value evaporated by 3 trillion, and tech giants collectively plunged. Of course, Jensen Huang going public with G does not affect the price trend 😂. After the midterm elections, the Democratic Party's victory hindered the construction of AI infrastructure, combined with BTC's current downturn and leveraged-driven simultaneous selling impact.
Personally, I think this is just a correction. Going forward, attention should be paid to the Q4 earnings report on November 17, whether the gross margin can hold at 74%, and whether the data center delay ratio will continue to worsen, which are the key points for $SNDK.
Back to the initial question, I personally do not think the AI bubble will repeat the previous heavy collapse, for two reasons: supply-demand needs and production capacity demand.
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $BTC $ETH $SOL Closed the weekly candle today, the bulls were liquidated once again, it's really tough, the bulls have been around for three or four years, is it really that hard just to make some money?
From the 7-day liquidation chart, over 90% of the bulls have been cleared out, the remaining bulls are mostly low leverage, so further decline doesn't make much sense.
Even if the price breaks below 720,000, it would only liquidate about 100 to 200 million USD, and this doesn't account for retail investors increasing margin at that time. With increased margin, the liquidation price would definitely be further away, so the remaining bulls holding on tightly are hard for the market makers to harvest.
Liquidations mainly target those who like to play with high leverage. At this point, it should be preparing to rise to cut the shorts. If the price rises again to 820,000, it will liquidate 2 billion USD worth of shorts.
So, do you think Bitcoin will continue to fall or will it pump to harvest the shorts? Historically, in every cycle like this, it's basically a double liquidation. The timing might be delayed, but it definitely won't be absent.
It will give you the feeling that it can't rise, slowly and finally pump up directly to liquidate the shorts. So this stage is really hard to endure. If you can't hold on, then you might be out of the crypto circle. Only those who endure will be worthy to see that glimmer of hopeful dawn～～#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ The biggest victim in the crypto world today was born.
Huang Renxun apologized by email for "cheating," causing the on-chain Nvidia token to drop 4%.
Then, a bunch of guys fomo-ed into long Nvidia positions and got liquidated, with the largest single liquidation hitting $35,000.
Retail investors bullish on AI bought long positions but ended up dying because of the CEO's private life.
Elon Musk and Bill Ackman both posted messages supporting Huang. The big players are joking around, while retail investors got liquidated silently.
#英伟达启动独立调查，管理层稳定性受关注 #RocketLab Earnings Preview: How is the Neutron Rocket Progressing? The market has recently been suppressed by geopolitical tensions, and this round of US-Iran negotiations might become a new turning point for the market.
Trump has signaled a diplomatic resolution; if the US-Iran situation continues to ease, crude oil prices may face downward pressure, and global market risk aversion could also decrease.
What does this mean for the crypto market?
On one hand, reduced war risk is favorable for restoring risk appetite; on the other hand, if falling oil prices can ease inflationary pressures, it might also improve market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
But don’t rush to be blindly bullish—progress in negotiations, the US dollar trend, and US Treasury yields remain key variables.
What I’m more focused on is whether this news can truly drive a volume-backed rebound in BTC, rather than just another short-lived emotional rally. #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $BTC $ETH To pour some cold water first, I don't think "the team hasn't sold directly" can just close this matter. My judgment leans bearish, but the bearishness is not about anyone's character, rather about this token distribution method: if the market treats the response as risk removal, I think it's an overread.
Delta disclosed that early on, 2.6% of the supply, i.e., 26 million $DELTA, was allocated to partners via OTC in exchange for operational funds and marketing support; among them, 16.5 million have been sold, and 9.5 million remain in two receiving wallets, with no vesting period, lock-up, or other restrictions. I have two reasons: on-chain records can support the claim that the team hasn't sold directly, but cannot offset the supply pressure caused by partner sales; responsibility attribution and market absorption are two different things; the team admits it cannot control subsequent sales, and communication has not reached consensus, meaning it is still uncertain when the remaining tokens will enter the market. In my speculation, if this uncertainty persists, holders may demand a higher risk discount.
Of course, the bulls might also be right: remaining tokens do not equal immediate dumping, and sales that have occurred may have already been absorbed by the market. If later we can see verifiable constraints on the disposal of remaining tokens, or if continuous sales are truly absorbed by real demand, I will retract my bearish stance. Are you bullish or bearish? Regarding these 9.5 million tokens, what evidence makes you believe the supply risk has been absorbed? Please state your reasons.$UNITREE 73% of people are short, today it directly surged to 109, shorts got squeezed
Unitree hit a high of 109.50 today, breaking through the 100 mark.
But the really interesting part isn't the price increase, it's the data. 72.86% of accounts are short, the long-short ratio is only 0.37. The funding rate is -0.74%, what does that mean? Shorts have to pay longs 0.74% every 8 hours, three times a day, which is 2.2%. Over three days, the funding alone eats up 6.6% of the principal.
This is why the price surged so sharply today. It's not that people are bullish on Unitree, it's that there are too many shorts. When the price rises a bit, some shorts are forced to close their positions, closing requires buying back, buying back pushes the price higher, and the more it rises, the more shorts close.
This is called a short squeeze. Beichen mentioned this risk before: when shorts are too crowded, a single bullish candle can trigger a chain reaction. It happened today.
In terms of trading, wait for a pullback to 102-104 to enter, stop loss at 99, first target 109.5. The short squeeze isn't over yet, shorts are still paying. As long as it doesn't break 100, the trend is on the bulls' side! #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ Last Thursday's crash pulled global risk assets straight back to reality from the post-election euphoria. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 5.52% in a single day, the S&P 500 dropped 4.36%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 3.44%; the Nasdaq 100 fell 6.4%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped about 12%. The sell-off was concentrated in the AI and data center industry chains, with Nvidia falling over 9%, Tesla nearly 11%, and crypto-related stocks like Coinbase and Strategy also down about 9%. This was not a negative event for any single company, but rather the market reassessing the return cycle of AI investments. The new political landscape may increase uncertainties around data center construction, energy consumption, and industry regulation, while some chip companies' earnings and guidance failed to meet previous high expectations. As the most crowded AI trades began to unwind, the capital naturally cut back first on the highest-valued and most elastic assets. The crypto market then came under synchronized pressure. $BTC quickly fell from around $81,000 to below $76,000, with about $1.09 billion liquidated in 24 hours, affecting over 210,000 traders, the vast majority of whom were long positions. Stocks and cryptocurrencies fell together during the same trading session, indicating that the market was undergoing an overall risk contraction rather than a new credit crisis within the crypto industry. On Friday, the US stock market did see the first round of recovery. The Nasdaq rebounded 1.1%, the S&P 500 rose about 0.3%, and Nvidia recovered about 2.8%; however, the Dow Jones still fell about 0.5%, and none of the three major indices recovered Thursday's losses Brothers, $1.49 billion liquidated, 240,000 people wiped out, $1.29 billion all long positions. This overnight cold shower drenched the bulls to the bone.
First, let's look at the most brutal liquidation data.
In the past 24 hours, the entire network forced liquidations totaled about $1.49 billion, with longs taking $1.29 billion, accounting for 86.8%. More than 240,000 accounts were directly wiped out. BTC liquidations were $475 million, ETH liquidations $331 million. The largest single order was a BTC long on Binance of about $11.09 million; within one hour, $629 million was liquidated, almost all longs.
The price is already unbearable to watch. BTC crashed from above 81,000 down to 75,463, hitting the lowest point since September 16; ETH fell from 2,437 to around 2,220, a drop of over 7% in 24 hours.
The trigger is not within the crypto circle.
After the midterm elections, with Democrats controlling both houses, the market started pricing in a slowdown in AI data center construction. The Nasdaq plunged 5.5%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index once dropped 10%. The tech stock sell-off transmitted to the crypto market, with BTC’s 50-week moving average at 75,733 briefly breached. But what really amplified the drop was the leveraged longs’ own stampede—previous rebounds mainly relied on short covering, with open interest barely increasing; once the direction reversed, chain liquidations pushed prices off a cliff.
But more worrisome than the crash is the ongoing bleeding of ETFs.
Last week, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.28 billion, the worst single week since late June; ETH spot ETFs had a net outflow of $365 million, marking the sixth consecutive week of losses. BlackRock’s IBIT was the largest outflow driver, with over $400 million withdrawn in a single day on Friday. The cumulative fund flow for US BTC spot ETFs in 2026 has turned negative, with a net outflow of about $914 million year-to-date.
On the surface, it looks like institutions are retreating. But the real signal is on-chain.
This morning, a giant whale sold 410 BTC, directly swapping it for 14,000 ETH on a DEX. At the same time, an old wallet of the Ethereum Foundation sent over 4,000 ETH to Kraken.
Leveraged longs are being cleaned out, ETF funds are continuously flowing out, but whales are shifting chips from BTC to ETH amid the decline. Three forces, three directions, all happening simultaneously.
Here’s the direct strategy:
BTC is now holding hard around 75,700; 75,000 to 75,400 is the bulls’ last stronghold. Once this position breaks, there’s a deep pit below. Don’t think the bottom is reached just because $1.4 billion was liquidated; clean liquidations don’t mean buy orders return. Wait until ETF outflows stop or volume picks up to reclaim above 76,500 before talking about a rebound. Before that, any bottom fishing is catching a flying knife.
ETH’s 2,200 is the psychological defense line and the last dignity of this wave of bulls. Hold it, and there’s still hope; break it, and the cost zone where whales are repositioning will be tested. With six consecutive weeks of ETF outflows, ETH’s support is much more fragile than BTC’s. Don’t heavily bet on a bottom at 2,200; be careful not to lose even your last pair of underwear.
Leverage is dead, but spot hasn’t arrived; ETFs are running, but whales are rotating. In this market, the most dangerous thing is not being wrong on direction, but mistaking liquidation clearing for buyback. Hold your hands, wait for real support signals before acting.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 At 5 a.m., a single spike directly pierced the key support at 74,000, with the latest low data reaching 73,333, consistent with the expected trend. Recently, there is a very important piece of news: Nasdaq has started 23/5 trading, meaning continuous trading five days a week, 23 hours a day, with only a one-hour maintenance window. Please note that the official implementation date is December 6. This has little to do with blockchain technology and continues to use traditional technology. Why does Lao Cui think this news is very important? It resembles a trial run of tokenization. Although there are no traces of the crypto world in the short term, the inspiration for 23-hour trading definitely comes from earlier tokenization companies. The profits are also visible: the Solana ecosystem's Real World Assets (RWA) total market value has reached $4.8 billion. Among them, tokenized funds amount to $3.7 billion, tokenized stocks $1.1 billion, and tokenized commodities $31.9 million. This data is from yesterday. The release of this kind of news acts as a bottom support during the bear market cycle for the crypto world. In this regard, Lao Cui finds it hard to see Bitcoin's price falling particularly low. Even though this bear market cycle has begun and the news pressure is so intense, Lao Cui still does not dare to expect a new low so far. You can review history: Bitcoin's darkest moment also started with domestic crackdowns. At that time, Bitcoin was controlled by Grayscale, with almost no major capital involvement. A single operation of around one billion could cause a disastrous crash in the crypto market. What about now?$BTC, you’re too sneaky, always launching surprise attacks when liquidity is low on weekends. No wonder I had nightmares last night.
At 4 to 5 AM, Bitcoin slammed down 3% in one go, and $ETH plunged even harder by 7%. This violent deleveraging wiped out over 700 million dollars from the longs—truly brutal!
But looking at the long-short data, Bitcoin longs still hold over 70%, only three percentage points less than before the sharp drop. After the dump by the big players, the price quickly bounced back to 73,000, showing strong long interest there. Many shorts have closed positions, and most liquidations were from high leverage.
It seems those liquidated liquidated, those taking profits took profits, and those bottom-fishing bottom-fished. Human joys and sorrows are not shared!
This kind of sharp break and quick V-shaped recovery looks exactly like the price bottoming after sweeping out long liquidity. But don’t think it’s stable as ever. The outside world is full of dangers: US stock ETFs see daily net outflows of 300 to 400 million, AI tech funds are collectively fleeing to safety, non-farm payroll data supports rate hike expectations, and policy uncertainty looms overhead. None of these are reassuring.
So,
Longs, I advise you to take it easy! BTC in the past 24 hours is down 1.4%, clearly outperforming ETH and SOL, indicating that capital still trusts large market cap assets more.
It must be said, compared to the record from last night, BTC was down 1.3%, ETH down 5.0%, SOL down 4.0%; now BTC is $74,839.61, ETH $2,127.26, SOL $86.53. The overnight changes are already significant, so today's judgment cannot rely on yesterday's.
BTC's relative strength usually indicates that capital wants exposure but is not yet willing to take on too much risk. For altcoins, this is not an environment for a full-scale offensive.
BTC can continue to be watched, but altcoins need to be more selective.
$BTC $ETH "Morning Spike: Bulls Pay Tuition First, V-Shaped Rebound Still to Be Verified"
This morning, the crypto market dealt a heavy blow to the bulls. ETH plunged sharply from around 2220 to 2051, BTC slid from 75700 to 73385. Many woke up to stop losses, some even liquidated directly. Within 4 hours, long positions worth $740 million were liquidated, including about $320 million in ETH, which is $100 million more than BTC, clearly showing the crowded leverage.
Prices then pulled back, showing a V-shaped recovery on the chart, but this looks more like a technical rebound after a sharp drop rather than a confirmed bottom. The battle between bulls and bears near the moving averages has just begun: only if the pullback holds above support with volume can it be considered a true bottom; if the rebound is weak, the bulls might just be a flash in the pan.
Don't rush to conclude a reversal in the short term; the market may still experience repeated shakeouts this morning. The real variable is the CPI on the 10th; controlling position size before the data is more important than trying to catch the bottom. The above is just market observation.
$BTC $ETH
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ Summary of External Negative Factors:
1. Fed December rate hike expectations rise, US Treasury yields remain high
👉Negative impact: High valuation growth stocks such as STAR Market 50, AI, semiconductors, photovoltaics; Hong Kong stocks, Chinese concept stocks, and heavily held northbound stocks; a stronger US dollar tends to cause northbound capital outflows.
👉Relatively resistant: High dividend, dividend-paying, and banking stocks.
2. Nvidia plunged overnight
👉Negative impact: Nvidia's industrial chain, optical modules, PCBs, AI servers, computing power leasing, HBM; sentiment pressure on STAR Market computing power sector.
👉Hedge: Domestic computing power independent lines (differentiated, not all falling together).
3. Repeated Middle East tensions, Strait of Hormuz shipping risks, oil price volatility
👉Negative impact: Aviation, logistics, downstream chemicals, consumer sectors, and most growth stocks; a sharp rise in oil prices will push inflation, further locking in expectations against rate cuts.
👉Positive (hedge): Oil and gas, petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, military industry.
4. Berkshire Hathaway cash reserves remain high, overseas institutions cautious
👉Negative impact: Global risk appetite, Hong Kong stocks, and high-valuation thematic growth stocks are prone to foreign capital reduction; large-cap sentiment tends to be weak.
👉Impact characteristic: Mainly sentiment-driven, not fundamental negative.
5. Goldman Sachs lowers year-end gold target price
👉Negative impact: Gold stocks, precious metals sector, gold-related targets in non-ferrous metals.
👉Support: Central banks continue gold purchases, medium- to long-term logic remains, only short-term expectations are lowered.
The above is blockchain quantitative analysis and does not constitute investment advice.Bitcoin mining difficulty has not returned to its historical peak for 374 consecutive days.
The peak was at 155.97T on October 29, 2025. This is the longest "no new high" period in the network's history, surpassing the 364 days after the 2011 crash and also exceeding the period after China's ban in 2021.
In the past, such a prolonged difficulty stagnation had only two explanations: a crash or a ban by a major country. This time, the explanation is: AI is bidding highest $BTC also plummeted, breaking below the 76K lifeline
The catalyst surprisingly was Huang Renxun's extramarital affair and chip loss, causing Nvidia's stock price to plunge intraday, which also dragged down BTC's 76K lifeline.
BTC currently breaking below 76K aligns with my forecast in last week's market report:
Is the bull market a correction or an end?
First, look at the structural pattern: 76K is the bottoming, 70K is the dividing line for a deep correction.
70K is the boundary between a healthy correction and a deep correction, overlapping the large cycle 0.5 and small cycle 0.382 levels. Breaking below it changes the nature of the correction but does not mean the bull market has failed.
My judgment:
Short term, 76K bottoming, the rebound is structural, not trend-based.
Medium term bearish bias, the decline is a choppy downward drift, not a waterfall crash; falling near 70K is a high probability event.
Long term, the bull market structure is intact, 70K is the dividing line, 58K is the endpoint. Need to watch whether the AI bubble bursts in 2027 triggering a US stock market crash and global financial crisis.”
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $RAVE has no positive news; 95% of the pump-and-dump operators are highly controlling the market. The overall trend is bearish.
OKX long-short ratio shows an "extreme bull trap."
Retail investor long-short ratio: 3.57 (extremely bullish)! Retail investors are frantically bottom-fishing.
Whale count long-short ratio: 1.62 (bullish).
Whale position long-short ratio: 0.74 (extremely bearish)! Main force inclination: extremely bearish!
Conclusion: The 1.62 ratio in number of people is a facade; the real capital positions are directly crushed down to 0.74. The retail investors' 3.57 fervent long positions are the perfect counterparty to the main force's 0.74 short positions.
RaveDAO issued an official statement on April 19, 2026, clearly stating that it will sell part of the unlocked tokens at an appropriate time according to the token release schedule (TRS), with proceeds used for operations, global recruitment, marketing, strategic acquisitions, and charitable projects.
$BTC $ETH #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ Looking at this response, it's like handing over the car keys and then coming back to explain: I didn't press the accelerator. Fine, but the problem is that the speed limit wasn't even set when handing over the car 😂
Delta stated that early OTC allocated 26 million $DELTA tokens to partners, accounting for 2.6% of the supply, in exchange for operational funds and marketing support, of which 16.5 million have been sold. These tokens have no vesting period, lock-up, or other restrictions. The team says they cannot control the partners' sales and published on-chain records to prove they did not sell directly.
What I care more about is the allocation rules, not who pressed the sell button: without lock-up, marketing cooperation may misalign with long-term expectations of token holders; public transaction records can explain the flow of funds but cannot compensate for prior constraints. These are not the same issue and "not selling personally" cannot replace an answer.
Do you value lock-up before cooperation more, or public transaction records after the fact? Choose one: do you want a seatbelt or a dashcam?9.5 million tokens are still in two receiving wallets. I tend to consider the worst-case scenario first: if the partners continue selling and the market cannot absorb it, the price pressure may increase. This is speculation, not a sell-off warning.
My judgment is that $DELTA's recent clarification did not eliminate the supply risk: the partners have no lock-up constraints, and the team has no authority to control sales. Explaining who is selling clearly does not mean the risk is gone. ⚠️ Ordinary people should first list the amount of loss they can bear per trade. When facing this kind of potential selling pressure, how much stop loss do you usually set per trade?$PRIME — Competitive Gaming and Digital Ownership
Gaming ecosystems are experimenting with ways to connect players, communities, and digital assets. PRIME is associated with the Parallel gaming ecosystem. The important test is whether the game can build a loyal player base and maintain meaningful activity without depending entirely on token speculation.I think of replacing water pipes in the old street: new pipes are laid quickly, but the joints between old and new are the most troublesome. After retiring and learning about digital assets, I increasingly feel that the weight of renovation depends on how the handover points are handled.
The Ethereum community submitted the EIP-8488 draft proposing parallel V2 opcodes, charged according to the new standards of EIP-8037 and EIP-8038; after activation, newly deployed contracts can only use V2, existing contracts continue with the old Gas plan, and V2 cross-contract calls must also target V2. It is still an early draft.
I think this is an important engineering trade-off and cannot be directly regarded as a fee reduction benefit. Old contracts retain the original charging, reducing the burden of forced adaptation; but the V2 call restrictions also create challenges for combining new and old applications, affecting developers more directly. Young friends, don't rush to treat the draft as finalized; I still want to see how compatibility issues are resolved.Selling three BAYC NFTs, let me first pour some cold water: this still doesn't support the narrative of "NFT funds shifting to ETH." According to Ember monitoring, after Maji Big Brother was liquidated, he still holds about $1.48 million in ETH long positions. What concerns me most is that selling NFTs and opening longs are mentioned in the same message, which easily leads people to imagine an unverified funding route.
I don't accept this deduction for two reasons. First, the source doesn't explain where the proceeds from the sale went; the two actions happening simultaneously doesn't mean the former funded the latter, so you can't reconcile his accounts for him. Second, personal disposal of collectibles and a sector being abandoned by capital are two different things. If you infer NFT weakness and ETH strength just from these three NFTs, in my view, you're amplifying a personal choice into an industry signal. For ordinary players, the easiest pitfall is to use a celebrity's actions as evidence to justify their own directional judgments.
Of course, those bullish on ETH might be right; my bearish stance doesn't mean I oppose everything I see. If later we see broader, sustained capital flows rather than stories revolving around one person's position, I will adjust my judgment. For now, I treat this as a message about individual risk preference, not evidence of sector rotation; first, let's clarify where the funds are going before discussing how big the story is.Revenue exceeded expectations at $4.7 billion, but profit dropped by 28%
Berkshire's Q3 released on Saturday: revenue $105.65 billion, up 11% year-over-year, higher than the expected $100.96 billion
But net profit was $22.11 billion, down 28% year-over-year
Operating profit $12.71 billion, down 5.8%
The drag was insurance: underwriting profit $1.35 billion, down 43%
GEICO's underwriting profit was $982 million, compared to $1.77 billion in the same period last year, more than halved
Loss ratio rose from 71.5% to 76.6%, the cost of cutting prices to win customers
On the other hand, cash was $377.4 billion, $11.9 billion more than at the end of June
Q3 buybacks were $9.6 billion, totaling $14.4 billion in the first nine months of this year
New CEO Abel is more willing to spend money than Buffett
I think this earnings report punishes not the business, but insurance pricing: railroads and energy are making money, only GEICO is losing money to gain market share, observe but don't chase
The critical point is if next quarter GEICO's underwriting profit continues to fall below $900 million, or cash starts to only increase without spending
Do you bet on a rise or fall at Monday's open?
$BRK.B $AAPL
#美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% CORE fell back to 0.012, is the BTCFi narrative completely broken? Or is it the darkness before dawn?
Key conclusion: It is not the BTCFi sector narrative that has collapsed, but CORE itself is being cleared out from the sector. The underlying demand of BTCFi to "unlock Bitcoin liquidity and provide staking yields for BTC" still holds. Competitors like Babylon continue to secure large amounts of funds for staking, so the sector logic has not disappeared.
CORE returning to around 0.012 is rooted in multiple internal contradictions erupting simultaneously: the governance trust fracture caused by the b14g coin theft incident, the countdown to Bithumb delisting, the continuous token inflation lasting 81 years, and extremely thin market liquidity. What the market fears is not BTC staking itself, but the uncertainty brought by the project team's ability to intervene in the ledger, vague compensation plans, and the long-term failure of the buyback narrative.
So, is this the darkness before dawn? Current evidence does not support this judgment. True bottom characteristics require the implementation of compensation plans, on-chain TVL recovery, and sustained growth in trading volume—these stabilizing signals are all absent so far. The current low price is more a valuation crash caused by liquidity exhaustion, not a golden bottom formed after sufficient chip consolidation.
Two possible future directions: if governance and security issues remain unresolved, CORE will continue to be abandoned by capital; if historical vulnerabilities can be properly addressed and community trust rebuilt, there may be a chance for a recovery window. Before substantial positive developments occur, rash bottom-fishing carries extremely high risk.The heaviest safe in the kitchen cold storage was pried open—25.7 tons of physical gold bars stacked in three layers, pressing the iron plate until it creaked, 59% more than at the beginning of the year, with a market value of 3.44 billion USD. This is not a seasonal dish the head chef added on a whim; someone has bought out the entire upstream supply chain.
At the same time, procurement managers across the city are scrambling for the same ingredient: central banks worldwide net bought 321 tons in Q3, 42% more year-on-year; gold funds also added 211 tons on their trays. The heat on the stove changed accordingly—the spot gold price stood back above $4,000 on November 4th. That recent pullback was just the two-minute rest when flipping a steak, letting the blood settle before returning to the pan to release the juice.
I've always said, an investment portfolio is like a banquet table. Mainstream coins are the main course, filling you up; altcoins are the seasoning, a pinch to enhance aroma, half a spoonful can cause a mishap; leveraged contracts are the super spicy chili, a few drops are exhilarating, but half a bottle will burn your intestines. Physical gold is the clear broth—six-hour slow-cooked old hen stock, slow and bland, but with a rich base that can hold the spoon. Anyone who sprinkles chili into the clear broth is ruining the reputation.
So what is tokenized gold? It's putting the broth into vacuum-sealed meal packs, ready to use anytime, quick to serve. The only question is: whose cold chain and whose expiration date. 25.7 tons sounds impressive, but compared to the central banks' 321 tons, it's just a cold appetizer on the banquet table; the main pot is still on their stove. To get more diners to pick up their chopsticks, it depends not on the plating but on whether the cold storage door dares to open—the redemption channel is the cold chain temperature; reserve audit transparency is the expiration label. A two-degree temperature difference can sour the whole pot.
As for those tokenized assets in the US stock market, they are pre-made dishes from the central kitchen: neatly presented, heated for three minutes before serving, but the cooking is controlled by someone else's stove—you can't even adjust the saltiness. When the gold price pot boils, linkage is inevitable, but the oil slick on the surface never represents the concentration at the bottom of the pot.
The broth is rich, the fire is strong, but I only recognize one rule—the oil slick, no matter how thick, cannot replace me sticking my spoon to the bottom of the pot. #xautgoldreservesup59%$TSLA Someone organized protests against Musk, but the stock price actually rose
This morning's news, FOX News reported that there are organized protests against Musk in the US. Behind it are three well-known nonprofit organizations: VOCAL-TX, Center for Popular Democracy, People's Action. They previously ran Tesla Takedown, with total revenue of $56.1 million in 2024, so money is not an issue.
Normally, this kind of news should crash the market. But looking at the market: both Tesla and $SPCX are rising.
Why? Because the market clearly distinguishes.
Street protests do not affect earnings reports. How many cars Tesla sells and how many contracts SpaceX signs depend on products and orders, not the number of people holding signs on the street. This is different from the Democrats controlling Congress—that can change rules and hold hearings. The real risk to worry about is regulatory actions after the new Congress takes office in January next year, not today's protest.
So Beichen's judgment: this news is emotional noise, not a trading signal. But one thing to watch: if the protest escalates to boycotting products and affecting sales, then the nature changes. The current information does not show this step yet.
In terms of operation, Tesla at 361, short-term follows the market, do not pay attention to this news. If you really want to act, wait until it falls below 353 to reconsider!
#RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ CORE experienced a flash dip to 0.0117 in the early morning, a movement more thrilling than a roller coaster!
In the early hours, CORE underwent an extreme flash dip, plunging instantly to around 0.0117, then slightly rebounding. The intense volatility left holders on edge. This rapid plunge was not triggered by sudden negative news; the core reason lies in the market's extremely thin liquidity. The current 24-hour trading volume is just over one million USD, with very shallow order books. Even a relatively small sell order can quickly break through multiple price levels, triggering numerous stop-loss orders and further amplifying the volatility.
Multiple negative factors continue to suppress the market: the trust crisis left by the b14g coin theft incident remains unresolved, the countdown to Bithumb's delisting keeps pressuring the market, and the 81-year token release cycle brings long-term inflationary pressure. Active buying interest in the market is very scarce. Even after the flash dip, the slight rebound is merely a passive technical correction, not a signal of capital entering to establish a bottom.
Many see the deep drop and want to bottom-fish for a rebound, but caution is needed: flash dips in a liquidity-starved environment often indicate a continuation of the downtrend, not the arrival of a bottom. Until compensation plans are implemented, on-chain activity warms up, and trading volume significantly recovers, this roller coaster-like intense volatility is likely to repeat, carrying very high risk. Under the shadowless lamp, before the monitor shows a long straight line, what often drops first is not blood pressure but myocardial perfusion. The ASTS Q3 post-earnings call is not about listening to management recite numbers; it's like an open-chest exploration: the Bluebird satellite is like an artificial valve, the direct terminal connection like collateral circulation, the partner operators like donor vessel anastomoses, commercial revenue is cardiac output, and cash burn is the bleeding rate. The $XCH correlation is not the primary disease but ectopic arrhythmia; the price crash is just premature ventricular contractions on the ECG, the real judgment is whether ASTS's cash flow perfusion pressure and commercialization anastomosis are leaking.
The number of satellites launched is like myocardial thickness—looks good but doesn't equal pumping function; partner signings are like vascular anastomoses, the key is distal perfusion; revenue growth is like stroke volume, which must be viewed alongside bleeding rate. If cash burn outpaces revenue ramp-up, it's like ongoing intraoperative bleeding with insufficient fluid replacement; if cooperation progress remains only at the intention stage, it's like a patent bridge vessel angiogram but no distal blood flow. The call must focus on three things: whether commercial revenue forms stable forward flow, whether partners convert into actual connections, and how many cardiac cycles the cash balance can sustain. The $XCH market correlation is like electrolyte disorder-induced arrhythmia, which cannot be masked by electrical cardioversion; first do a transesophageal echo to check structure, then hemodynamics to assess perfusion, and only then discuss whether the rhythm looks good. My professional judgment: first look at perfusion, then rhythm; if perfusion pressure continues to drop, no matter how beautiful the satellite network is, it's just ventricular tachycardia—there is rhythm, but no cardiac output. #astsq3commercialoutlook The reason $PEPE is currently so strong, besides the ETF expectations, is also due to the Binance hacker incident where a large amount of PEPE was stolen and sold from the mentioned wallet. Binance has not yet fully bought it back from the secondary market, so the short-term buying pressure remains. Once Binance opens PEPE withdrawals, the buying pressure will disappear, and $PEPE is likely to experience a correction 📉Is the US CPI going to stir things up again tomorrow night?
This time it's not just an ordinary data release. On November 6, US nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000, far exceeding expectations, and the market's bet on a December rate hike once surged close to 80%.
What's more troublesome is oil prices. The Middle East situation is volatile, and energy costs remain high. In September, the US CPI year-on-year rose to 3.7%, and the market expects it to further increase to 3.9% in October.
In short, what everyone fears is not that inflation hasn't dropped, but that the Federal Reserve will continue tightening.
This kind of scenario is very familiar historically!
In November 2022, CPI dropped to 7.7%, and BTC rose about 6.5% within an hour after the announcement.
In May 2024, inflation cooled down, and BTC rebounded about 2.6% within an hour.
But on October 14 this year, it was a disaster: CPI year-on-year was 3.7%, 0.1 percentage points higher than expected, BTC fell about 1.4% within an hour after the announcement, and US Treasury yields also surged.
So what will happen tomorrow night?
If the data is below expectations, $BTC has a chance to rebound, first watching if 76,000 can be firmly retaken, then considering 78,000.
But if inflation continues to exceed expectations, be cautious at 74,000; if it breaks below and the rebound fails to hold, don't rush to bottom fish.
Also, on Friday there is the US PPI; inflation news is not just a one-time event.
Tomorrow night at 21:30, do you think BTC will counterattack with the CPI, or test the bottom again? #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $ONE, $MET, and $ZEC all experienced slight synchronized pullbacks, but the underlying position logic is completely different. Compared to the surface price movements, this divergence is more worth noting. There is still some time before settlement, and the divergence between capital and positions may trigger greater volatility. ONE ($ONE) is the most obvious target where bearish forces are weakening; the four-hour funding rate is deeply negative, the price has slightly dropped, and open interest has fallen, indicating many shorts are exiting and not continuing to add bearish bets. The cost-effectiveness of chasing the decline has decreased, and the short crowding has eased somewhat. MET ($MET) is the exact opposite: despite a slight price drop, open interest is rising as shorts continue to add positions during the decline, making the position increasingly crowded. Once the market reverses, the concentrated shorts are very likely to trigger a chain liquidation, making it the most vulnerable among the three. ZEC ($ZEC) shows another kind of imbalance: the eight-hour funding rate remains positive, price has pulled back, and open interest has slightly decreased. Bulls are gradually exiting, but the bullish premium has not been fully absorbed yet, so there is still liquidation pressure in the short term, although leverage levels are quietly decreasing. Simply put, a price drop does not necessarily mean a purely bearish signal. ONE ($ONE) sees shorts retreating, weakening downward momentum; MET ($MET) has new shorts adding positions, bringing squeeze risk; ZEC ($ZEC) still has residual bullish premium that hides potential risks. Going forward, two directions can be closely observed: whether the crowded shorts in MET ($MET) will face a squeeze, or whether the remaining bullish premium in ZEC ($ZEC) will ultimately be released