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Bitcoin is 9 weeks away from a signal that has fired only once in its history.
X
It's the weekly death cross, when the 50-week moving average falls below the 200-week.
The only time it ever happened was February 2023, with Bitcoin at $24K.
Everyone screamed bear market, and Benjamin Cowen's post about it pulled over a million views.
The bottom was already in three months earlier at $15.5K.
One year after that death cross, Bitcoin was trading at $52K. Seeing "7 times all dropped," my heart still skipped a beat 😰. A study cited by PANews states that since 2016, in the 7 scenarios where the Federal Reserve paused and then resumed rate hikes, Bitcoin recorded a decline within 30 days after the hike, with a median drop of 2.4%. For office workers investing only with spare money, this kind of news really tests one's mindset.
My judgment is: this is a risk warning leaning bearish, not a script that guarantees the next drop. I won't bet on direction just because of "0 wins and 7 losses." The sample size is only 7, and the chronological order does not mean the decline was entirely caused by rate hikes; ignoring other market factors easily overestimates this pattern.
Another point that makes me cautious is that the median drop is not the maximum drawdown, much less the loss ceiling. If resuming rate hikes tightens the funding environment, I speculate that risk asset sentiment may be under pressure, but the magnitude and duration remain uncertain. Those afraid of volatility can't just take 2.4% to reassure themselves.
I prefer to first confirm the actual implementation of policies, then check whether my position affects my life and if I have enough emergency funds. Spare money is not money that can be lost casually. Facing such historical records, what percentage of account drawdown can you endure while still being able to work and sleep normally?#US Crypto Regulation: "CLARITY Act" Progress Stalled, 401(k) Rules Enter Final Review
The boss has something to say
I came across this crypto regulation news with two contrasting lines: The bad news is that the "CLARITY Act" is stuck in the Senate, and House Democrats are discussing a new plan to transfer some crypto business originally under the CFTC to the SEC, enforcing through regulation instead of legislation; the good news is that the Labor Department has submitted rules to the White House for final review to expand alternative asset investments in 401(k) retirement plans, with digital asset-related products also under discussion.
My interpretation is: This is the real tone of crypto regulation after the midterm elections—clear legislation is gone, but the door to include digital assets in retirement accounts is opening. If 401(k) plans can legally buy BTC-related products, that represents a trillion-dollar long-term incremental pension fund; however, SEC's expanded authority means higher compliance costs. In the short term, regulatory direction is unclear, so the market won't chase highs just because of 401(k); in the long term, pension fund allocation is a stronger incremental story than ETFs.
BTC current price is about 74,800, sideways on Saturday. My approach: regulatory news is a slow variable and won't affect tonight's position; 75,000 remains resistance, looking down to 73,000. Waiting for Monday's US stock market open and ETF net flow data before deciding direction. Regulatory matters like this are to be watched over a year, not a day.
The above analysis is time-sensitive; please stay safe. $BTC $ETH $ZEC AKE dropped from 0.039 to 0.0019, then pulled back to 0.0060 in two days.
This is not a successful bottom-fishing; it's leverage swapping hands.
From 0.039 on 10-23 to a low of 0.001877 on 11-05.
A 95.2% drop in 13 days.
All-time high was 0.1467, now down −95.9%.
30-day drop of 79.3%.
At first, I only looked at the price, but later realized the position size is what matters.
During the crash days, the long-short account ratio stayed between 1.7 and 2.2.
Two-thirds were long, yet the price kept falling.
The longs got buried.
On 11-06, the ratio flipped to 0.72, with shorts in the majority.
That day the price rose +78.19%, and the next day another +53.57%.
The shorts took over the same baton.
Now at 0.0060.
Long-short ratio is 0.84, with shorts slightly more.
Funding rate +0.005%, slightly positive.
Don't forget the structure.
Total supply is 100 billion tokens, with only 22.8% circulating.
Fully diluted is 601 million, market cap 137 million, a 4.4x difference.
77% is still locked up.
Some in the community say it’s a "free fall."
$AKE
It rose nearly 2.5 times in two days, with both buyers and shorts still in. $IWM
Employment is good, so why might small-cap stocks still lag?
The latest U.S. employment report shows an unemployment rate of 4.1% in October. This supports the view that the economy remains resilient but does not eliminate financing pressures on small businesses.
Small-cap companies typically rely more on external financing and domestic demand. Stable sales can improve operations, but refinancing maturing debt at higher interest rates may also erode profit growth.
I focus on earnings revisions, interest burden, and credit spreads. If demand holds and financing conditions improve, there is a stronger basis for a catch-up rally; if strong employment instead prolongs high interest rates and companies have weak cash flow, good economic data may not necessarily translate into stock price gains.Retail investors are panic selling, while smart money is frantically picking up bloodied chips While others are selling off, they dropped another 140 million. There’s a smart money that, three hours ago, directly took out 19.62 million USD and swept 8,773 ETH on-chain. The average price was 2236. You think they’re stubbornly catching a falling knife? Check out this address’s track record. When the market crashed sharply in March this year, they precisely bottomed out 7,543 coins at 2048, almost Nonfarm payrolls exploded! The December rate hike is really on shaky ground this time 🔥
October's nonfarm payrolls surged to 165,000, while expectations were only 65,000–70,000, with the previous two months revised up by 84,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, wages rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, showing a very strong labor market 💪
Once the data came out, the probability of a December rate hike jumped from about 70% to 77%–81%. The 2-year US Treasury yield briefly rose 7 basis points to 4.54%, the dollar surged to 102.2, and gold plunged nearly $60 to around 4029.82 📉 As rate hike expectations heat up, non-yielding assets take the hit first.
But don’t just look at the headline. Morgan Stanley said the unemployment rate decline is accompanied by a rise in labor force participation, so there’s no serious overheating; Huatai also mentioned that the market’s pricing for cumulative rate hikes by the end of 2027 only increased by 5 basis points to 50 basis points, showing restraint ⚖️
$BTC $ETH $UNI
There are also concerns: forced part-time jobs increased by 339,000 to 4.84 million, U-6 rose to 7.9%, and long-term unemployment still accounts for 27.6%. So this is not a "crazy rate hike" scenario, but the December hike is moving from high probability to near certainty, with the path ahead still data-dependent 👀#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% #BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 Tether's CEO, Paolo Ardoino, posted a video: controlling a model car via a mobile phone interface. The accompanying explanation is that Tether's tech stack will support Bluetooth.
Many people's first reaction is, how does a stablecoin issuer suddenly get into remote-controlled cars? My understanding is that the focus of this video is not the car itself, but the fact that "the phone directly connects to a physical device."
The battlefield for stablecoins in recent years has been on-chain: how much to issue, on which chain, how fast the clearing is. But the real last mile of payment has always been stuck on "you have to open the app first, have internet first, scan a code first." If the Bluetooth route works, it means bypassing the network for the segment from device to wallet, solving it with near-field direct connection.
The role change behind this is even more noteworthy. Tether used to be just the issuer; now it is moving toward the position of "infrastructure provider," sinking from on-chain down to the device end. The scale of $USDT is already so large that simply competing by issuing more is not very meaningful; drilling into scenarios is where the growth lies.
Of course, a demo video is still far from a product. What Bluetooth can transmit, how authorization is done, how to prevent double-spending offline—none of these questions are answered in the video.
I want to leave you with one point: if wallets can really communicate with nearby devices via Bluetooth, the first thing to be rewritten might not be crypto trading, but the whole offline payment system.$ZEC is a highly volatile box range compressed by 1,385 for a whole month (1,110–1,390). The NU7 upgrade was realized on 11-05. On 11-06, the seventh attempt to break 1,388 failed and fell back the same day—this is a typical "good news fully priced + false breakout." The current price at 1,276 is right above the box center at 1,250, a position neither up nor down, not an entry point. Trading rating: Wait and see (bearish bias, but do not chase shorts) Strategy positioning: Edge trading of the box, avoid the middle Core reference: Current price 1,275.68 | Upper edge 1,355–1,390 | Lower edge 1,210–1,250 | Invalid line 1,110 1,385 was tested seven times but not broken → This is not a "consolidation breakout," it is chips being repeatedly distributed at the same position. On 11-06, it surged to 1,388 but closed at 1,323 that day (a 4.7% pullback), then dropped to 1,273 on 11-07, confirming the false breakout. $ZEC capital and sentiment: Catalysts have been exhausted 1. NU7 upgrade = realized good news On 11-05, mainnet activated NU7: block time reduced from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, Sprout pool closed This was the only dated catalyst for ZEC in the past month Price path: pulled up to 1,388 before the upgrade (11-06) → dropped back to 1,273 two days after the upgrade A dated positive event, once the date passes, it turns negative.一家拟议中的代币化美股交易场所更新公开异议名单。苹果、Meta、帕兰提尔、标普全球、科磊和超微电脑出现在新增名单里。累计异议公司达到 67 家。 CoinDesk 当天统计，最初选定的 62 家上市公司里，约 90%、也就是 56 家已经书面反对。还没出现在异议名单上的，只剩 Strategy、Circle、Robinhood、Securitize、BitGo，以及另一家大型加密上市公司。这六家全是加密相关公司。 这不是投票，是否决权 按美国证券监管机构给这类场所的创新豁免安排，场所要把第三方代币化某只股票的打算书面通知发行人。发行人收到后有 30 个日历日可以书面反对。反对一旦生效，该股票的代币就不能在这一家场所上架。场所要在五个工作日内把异议公司写进公开名单，所以公开名单会晚于实际决定。 设计初衷是全天候交易美股代币，用稳定币结算，撮合走自动做市池而不是传统订单簿。名单缩成现在这样之后，能真正开出来的标的，大概率只剩加密行业自己人。原本想覆盖的大盘科技、银行、零售和工业股，大半被发行人自己挡在门外。 纽交所母公司也参与了这家合资场所。前一周联合主席还在记者会上说，名单外的公司主动找$SNDK 1400 was the price 8 days ago, with an intraday high of 1,421.1 on 10-28.
Now at 838, it needs to rise 67% to get back to 1400.
10-29 −6.1%, 10-30 −9.7%.
11-04 −9.2%, 11-05 −21.3%, lowest at 794.
In seven trading days, it has dropped about 44%.
At first glance, seeing 794, I thought I was mistaken.
The drop is not due to the earnings report.
The earnings report came out on 10-29, with revenue of 11.03 billion.
Data center revenue increased 61% quarter-over-quarter, gross margin 85.1%.
The numbers look good, yet it dropped the next day.
The reason lies in the voting results.
The Democratic Party took both chambers and won several governorships.
They promised strict regulation on data center construction.
Expectations for AI infrastructure were crushed, storage being high beta, fell the hardest.
The contradiction is here.
PE is 6.72, Forward PE 3.41, average price 2,023.
But the stock price is only 838.
The reason it's cheap is not poor performance, but the market betting that policies will strangle AI infrastructure.
Whether 1400 can be reached again, I won't guess.
Here are two reference points:
52-week range is 183 to 2,354, a 67% move is considered normal fluctuation.
But it depends on whether policies loosen first or earnings can't hold up.
There will be a 1-for-8 stock split on 11-20. Farside's Friday data is out: US spot $BTC ETF had a single-day net outflow of $411.9 million, with IBIT alone withdrawing $403 million, while FBTC actually saw an inflow of $42.8 million; from November 2 to 6, the total outflow was about $1.28 billion, with IBIT experiencing net outflows for six consecutive trading days. The $ETH spot ETF also had an outflow of $93.3 million on the same day.
The market hasn't collapsed: OKX spot BTC is currently around 75,890, touched 76,251 at 4 PM but was pushed back, 24h high/low is 76,251 / 74,888; ETH is about 2,241. TRdesk reports that across 12 exchanges in the past 24h, BTC liquidations totaled about $50.9 million, with longs accounting for 83%, which is much calmer compared to Friday's liquidation wave.
My view is that leverage is no longer the main selling pressure; the pressure is on the ETF side. If outflows don't stop after the US stock market opens next Monday, the 75,000 level will be hard to hold, so don't rush to buy yet.
$BTC $ETHIf this round of oil prices stabilizes, will funds flow back to $BTC first, or to the US stock market first?
It depends. If it's a gradual easing like now, half-talked and slowly worked out, the first wave of capital return will definitely be to Nasdaq tech stocks. Oil prices fall, inflation concerns cool down, US Treasury yields decline, and public and index allocation funds prioritize returning to US stocks, which is the main reservoir for orthodox risk assets.
Bitcoin belongs to the secondary market phase; incremental funds will only overflow after the US stock market shows risk appetite. Plus, crypto itself currently faces a lot of bearish pressure, making it hard to absorb large funds first.
But if Qatar's plan is implemented directly and the Strait of Hormuz confirms the resumption of navigation, that would be an unexpectedly major positive. BTC's 24/7 trading and short-term leveraged funds will rush in first, pulling up a wave, while true long-term allocation funds will still prioritize US stocks.
The worst-case scenario is if the oil price drop is not due to peace talks but market pricing a recession. Even if crude oil falls, funds will flow into bonds, and both US stocks and Bitcoin will be under pressure.
For us, we can use the status of Hormuz shipping and US Treasury yields as anchors. If yields decline and the strait's navigation is confirmed, Nasdaq will move first, then BTC can be laid out simultaneously.
Short-term news will tug back and forth; don't let single-day rises or falls mislead your rhythm. To follow along in sync, visit the homepage research community.
#美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% $SNDK $CL $SPCX Musk's ability to paint a grand vision is truly top-notch, directly proclaiming revenue will exceed 500 billion by 2027. The core trump card has changed; SpaceX is no longer just a contractor relying purely on government orders. By tightly partnering with Anthropic, it has carved out a new path in space computing power when terrestrial data centers are choked by regulations.
$SOXL But behind the huge profits lies a big risk. A single AI client contributes one-third of the revenue, meaning it is deeply tied to the current most frenzied large model cycle. Now that AI financing is shrinking overall, if the major client runs out of funds, this high-growth myth could be discounted at any time. The story is enticing, but don't get carried away; keep a close eye on that AI giant's cash flow trump card.PUMP has experienced two consecutive hours of volume-increased decline, and it's still unclear if the buyers are strong enough to take over.
On OKEx spot from 20:00 to 21:00, about 556,000 USDT was traded, which is 4.1 times the average of the previous 12 completed hours. The closing price dropped from 0.003823 to 0.003787. The previous hour also saw about 516,000 USDT traded. Volume has been high for two hours, but the price has fallen hour by hour.
I tend to first observe whether the selling pressure can be absorbed. There are about 244,000 USDT buy orders within 1% below the price, higher than about 131,000 USDT sell orders at the same distance above, but orders can be withdrawn and cannot be directly considered support. Contract open interest slightly decreased in the most recent complete hour, which is insufficient to prove that new shorts are aggressively increasing positions.
If the next completed hour sees volume shrink but the price still breaks below 0.00377, the support explanation weakens further; if volume increases and the price recovers to 0.00387, then we can see if the sell orders above are truly being filled.
$PUMP $TRUMP Negative news: After the Democrats took control of both chambers, the valuation of the family coin is still being pulled down
After the Democrats took over both the House and Senate, what reason does TRUMP have to withstand the political discount?
OKEx current price 1.174, 24h -3.37%, volume about 7.45 million, intraday dropped from a high of 1.279 to around a low of 1.17
CoinMarketCap and TokenPost summary: After the Democrats swept the midterm elections on 11/3, Trump-related concept coins such as TRUMP, WLFI, MELANIA led the decline. TRUMP once fell about 17% in a single day to around 1.30, even though BTC was still rebounding at that time
The core issue is not slogans, but expectations of congressional investigations: The Democratic agenda specifically targets the Trump family’s crypto projects and conflicts of interest. Related legislative ethics clauses will also block the family coin narrative, sharply cutting the political brand premium
Coupled with this week’s tech stock collapse and about $1.1 billion in crypto liquidations, low-liquidity political meme coins have fallen deeper than mainstream coins, and are still digesting the tail end of the election impact.How do those who truly make big money in the crypto circle actually do it? After studying several successful cases with public trading records, I found that their ways of making money are actually quite different.
1. Ansem: Making early discoveries of Meme narratives
On December 1, 2023, he bought his first WIF with $472 at about $0.0003 per token, and added another $185 eight days later. This was during the market recovery phase after the 2022 bear market ended, when the Solana Meme trend was just beginning.
In April 2024, WIF peaked near $4.9, about 4 months after his initial purchase.
But he didn’t just hold on blindly. On-chain statistics show he invested about $2.14 million in total, sold about $2.85 million, realizing a profit of about $804,000, with another unrealized profit of about $745,000. Note: The 16,000x figure is the ratio of the initial purchase price to the highest price, not his actual realized gains.
2. Paulo.sol: Capturing the main Meme uptrend through trend trading. He started buying BONK on November 11, 2023, began buying WIF on December 4, and started trading BODEN on March 6, 2024. He didn’t blindly chase every new coin but increased his buying power after observing upward trends in tokens, repeatedly trading by buying low and selling high. As of April 26, 2024, on-chain tracking reports show he has realized cumulative profits of about $22.83 million across BONK, WIF, and BODEN tokens.Weekend watch: Bitcoin is currently around $75,878, trading narrowly between $74,888 and $76,378 today. The $75,000 level is still holding, but the real line is at $75,600 — that's the low on election night and near the 50-week moving average. If it can't hold this, it will be the fifth consecutive week of decline, closing below the 200-day moving average. Interestingly, Strategy holds 849,000 BTC at an average cost of about $75,451, and the current price is only about 0.6% higher, meaning the whole market is watching the same line. After the non-farm payrolls, the probability of a December rate hike is nearly 80%, with the Fear & Greed Index at 25, indicating extreme fear. This weekend, the focus is on whether $75,600 can hold; only a recovery above $77,700 will signal a breather $BTC #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 一、核心结论 这是一份“利润小幅不及预期、资本配置远超预期”的财报。承保利润 -43% 构成拖累，但 96 亿美元回购（市场预期 16.4 亿，5.9 倍）是真正的信息量——管理层在历史新高位置用真金白银投票。基本面给“回踩买”的理由，但技术面（RSI 73.6 + 11-05 放量冲高回落）明确警告“不要追高开”。 $BRKB 财报评级：中性偏多 交易评级：可介入，但只在回踩位介入，不追突破 核心参考价：现价 570.89｜第一支撑 559.6–561.0｜第二支撑 543.7–545｜第一压力 579.09｜第二压力 586.30 二、Q3 财报拆解（2026Q3 vs 2025Q3，单位：百万美元） 项目-2026Q3-2025Q3-同比点评 经营利润12,705-13,485−5.8%经营EPS(B) 5.94，市场预期 5.91，微超 净利润22,112-30,796−28.2%受投资损益拖累，噪音项 投资损益9,407-17,311−45.7%含 77 亿未实现浮盈，不反映经营 保险承保1,352-2,369−42.9%最大拖累项，预期 1,470，不及 保险投资收益2,7What will BTC do after being selected? Let's first look at the two historical instances.
On November 6, 2018, the weekly close was 6,450.
One month later it was 3,545, a drop of 45%.
One year later it was 9,039, an increase of 40%.
On November 8, 2022, the weekly close was 16,330.
One month later it was 17,085, an increase of 4.6%.
One year later it was 37,064, an increase of 127%.
Putting the two together, it looks like "long-term gains after selection."
I originally thought the short term would be the same, but after reviewing the data, I found the opposite.
One time it dropped 45%, the other time it rose 4.6%.
The difference is not in the selection, but in what was happening around it.
In 2018, it hit the last phase of a bear market, with December being the lowest point of the entire cycle.
In 2022, it coincided with FTX, and three days after selection the exchange ran into trouble.
So selection is not the main variable, just a point on the calendar.
What really determines the movement in the following three months is what else happened at the same time.
Back to the probability issue.
With only two samples, you can't calculate probability.
If someone gives you a "high probability of increase" number, that number is made up, not calculated.
Now it's 75,906.
MA20 is at 79,451, pressing down 4.7% overhead.
7-day range is from 74,888 to 81,196.
Do you think this time there might also be a "side event" that hasn't been accounted for?
$BTC
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 One detail that taught me a lesson this week: the entire process of $BTC dropping from above 80,000 back to 75,000, the OKX perpetual funding rate almost stayed at 0.01%. I checked the records: on November 4th, when it surged to 81,200, the rate was 0.01%. On the 5th, it dropped about 6% in one day (from 80,300 to a low of 75,558), yet each settlement period still hovered around 0.01%. The real cooldown happened after the 6th; the 4 PM settlement today even turned negative at -0.0004%, while the price had been sideways around 76,000 for two days with a 24-hour volatility of only about 1.8%. My understanding is: 0.01% is the baseline, and most of the time it just indicates that longs are paying "normal interest," which doesn't mean the market isn't overheated, nor is it a safety signal. Negative funding rates often appear after a drop, so using it as a bottom-fishing signal can easily lag behind. Now, I prefer to treat the funding rate as a "confirmation" rather than a "warning": first look at the price structure and key levels, like whether the 75,000 area holds, then use the funding rate to see if sentiment has caught up. Do you usually watch the funding rate? Do you use it for decision-making or just as a reference? $QQQ
Nasdaq rebound: how to distinguish between a correction and a trend recovery?
On November 6 during the US stock market session, a chip rebound drove the Nasdaq higher; this information reflects intraday conditions and cannot be directly interpreted as a sustained trend. After concentrated selling, short covering can naturally happen quickly.
Growth stocks face both profit-taking and interest rate constraints simultaneously. If the rebound only restores valuations without new profit evidence, its sustainability depends more on risk appetite.
I observe whether the subsequent rise spreads from hardware to software and other growth sectors. If breadth improves and profit downgrades stop, the correction is more credible; if the rebound is concentrated and then volume increases again with a pullback, it should continue to be assessed as a high-volatility environment.$SEI
Parallel execution is one of the more interesting approaches to improving blockchain performance. Sei uses this architecture to process compatible transactions more efficiently while supporting EVM applications. However, speed alone cannot guarantee ecosystem success. Developer retention, application quality, network security, and genuine user activity will ultimately determine whether its technical advantages create a lasting competitive position.To be honest, there are three questions I haven't understood these past few days.
How did BTC surge to 81,196 in one day and then drop back to 74,888 in two days?
Circle's earnings exceeded expectations, so why did its stock price fall by 10%?
SanDisk dropped 27% in three days, what is it falling over?
First, it rises fast and falls even faster.
On November 4, after the election results came out, BTC jumped from 75,736 to 81,196.
On November 5, it opened at 80,504, hit a low of 75,208, and closed at 76,088.
A 5.5% gain in one day was completely given back.
Second, Circle beat this quarter, but the market is looking at next year.
Revenue and profit both exceeded expectations, but CRCL fell from 75.22 to 67.58.
The USDC supply is still shrinking; a good quarter doesn't mean the supply is coming back.
Third, SanDisk's drop isn't about the earnings report.
SNDK fell from 1,145 to 838, a drop of nearly 27%.
Storage stocks are being hit by expectations of AI capital expenditures.
Putting these three things together sums up as: rises rely on news, falls rely on capital.
The position isn't easy either.
Current price is 75,906.
MA20 is at 79,451, 4.7% above.
MA200 is at 73,240, 3.5% below.
7-day range is from 74,888 to 81,196.
$BTC $LIT missed its takeoff, now it can only be watched quietly land
The daily chart has completely broken below the long-term uptrend line, and the 1-hour chart shows a waterfall-like plunge, with the overall trend fully turning bearish. This slight rebound now is purely an oversold correction after a sharp drop, a typical downward consolidation.
The most critical issue is the underlying data: the long position ratio is as high as 65%! With such crowded retail holdings, the main force will never lift the price to help them break even. The most likely scenario is a weak rebound followed by continued selling pressure downward to test lower support levels, completely washing out these long holders. The overall trend is lost; control your impulses and patiently watch the show.Last night's market reaction was interesting. Despite negative headlines, Bitcoin only dipped toward $74,800, almost exactly matching the September correction low. Ethereum also held around $2,207 without breaking its previous low near $2,170. But I'm not convinced the bottom is in. Here's why I'm still cautious: 1. The rebound hasn't proven itself BTC has fallen from $88,000 to $75,000, while ETH dropped from $2,880 to $2,200. These prices naturally attract spot buyers looking for bargains. 2. Seeing this made me a bit confused: The US sanctioned 8 Canadian currency exchange companies, saying they helped Iran convert rials into crypto assets. When a country's money wants to flow out, it has to rely on a few small shops in another country to handle it; this chain is much more rustic than imagined.
What's even more interesting is that at the same time, the community is arguing about KOLs pushing products and cutting leeks. Outside, the exit is being blocked; inside, everyone is scrambling to be the exit. $BTC didn't drop, what fell was that little bit of trust.
Honestly, I don't know whether to say the regulators are too diligent or human nature is just too exploitable.Bitcoin market is declining, but Open Interest is growing against the trend!
According to Glassnode data, during the recent BTC price pullback, the open interest in Bitcoin derivatives increased by nearly $1.5 billion.
This indicates that even as market prices continue to fall, traders are still opening new leveraged positions, intensifying the battle between bulls and bears.
Notably, the continuous rise in OI during the decline may mean the market is accumulating more leverage risk. Once prices experience sharp fluctuations, forced liquidations of leveraged positions could further amplify market volatility.
Key points to watch next: BTC price trends, OI changes, and liquidation data.
Price decline and rising OI do not necessarily mean the market will continue to fall, but they do indicate accumulating risk.
Do you think this is bulls bottom-fishing, or bears adding to their positions?
#RocketLabQ3Neutron $BTC #USJobsBeatExpectations Next Tuesday (November 10) there are two major events on the same day: the US October CPI and SoftBank Group's Q2 earnings report.
SoftBank's report is worth a separate look. It is now roughly equivalent to OpenAI's "meal replacement stock": it has committed to investing $40 billion (net investment of $30 billion), and as of the end of March this year, the fair value of its OpenAI holdings was $79.6 billion, with an accumulated unrealized gain of $45 billion. The problem is that Altman confirmed in September that OpenAI will not go public in 2026, so this unrealized gain currently has no exit channel in the short term.
Where the money comes from is a hard constraint: last October, SoftBank liquidated Nvidia holdings to cash out $5.83 billion; in the previous fiscal year, it reduced T-Mobile holdings to raise $16.25 billion; it is also carrying a $40 billion bridge loan due in March 2027; in June, it tried to use OpenAI equity as collateral for a loan but was shelved by banks citing "difficulty in pricing private equity." S&P downgraded its rating outlook to negative in March.
The market has already pre-judged: it fell 7.9% on Wednesday, and intraday on Thursday it once dropped over 14%, with SoftBank's dollar bonds leading the decline among Asian investment-grade bonds.
The earnings report will focus on three things: how OpenAI's valuation is accounted for, how much the LTV rises, and where the next funds will come from.
This is a factual summary and does not constitute investment advice.A sanctions announcement shifted the focus from Tehran to Ottawa. The U.S. Treasury Department named 8 currency service companies registered in Canada, accusing them of providing financial services for sanctioned Iranian entities: converting Iranian rials into crypto assets, then directing them to blacklisted Iranian exchanges and addresses related to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The real highlight is the target. The U.S. did not escalate sanctions within Iran itself but instead targeted a geographically safer location to cut off this link’s transit points. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent put it bluntly—Canada cannot become a safe harbor for sanctions evasion.
On the surface, this message is aimed at Iranian funds, but in reality, it’s a warning to all cross-border service providers: if your node handles such money, even if registered in North America and with seemingly compliant client materials, you could one day be labeled as assisting evasion.
In the same time window, another accountability event unfolded within the community. On-chain detective ZachXBT reiterated his repeated criticism of KOL Ansem for promoting small-cap tokens and celebrity coins, yet this round the gamblers still trusted him, allowing him a respectable exit liquidity.
Both incidents point to the same structure: money always finds a way out, and there are always sellers facilitating the exit. While states block cross-border gates and the market curses the promoters, demand remains unchanged, just taking a different route.
Where the next batch of transit points will move to is the latter half of this news. $BTC and $ETH feel no impact.$BTC
At 75,000, Wall Street also started pulling money out! $840 million outflow in two days, are institutions really not stepping in this time?
Farside data shows that on November 5 and 6, US spot BTC ETFs had net outflows of $430 million and $412 million respectively.
Including other trading days this week, the total outflow over five days is about $1.282 billion.
But looking at the details, things are quite interesting.
On November 6, BlackRock's IBIT had a single-day outflow of $403 million, while Fidelity's FBTC had a net inflow of $42.8 million.
The same BTC ETFs, some are pulling money out, while others are still seeing funds coming in.
So it can't be simply explained as "institutions collectively running away."
However, overall buying is indeed weakening. BTC is currently still around $76,000, with a low touching $74,811, and the rebound lacks strength.
Short term will continue to be bearish, no rush to bottom-fish.
If 75,000 is broken, there is further pressure below; only if it climbs back above 78,000 and ETF fund outflows significantly narrow will we consider adjusting the outlook.
#BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 $TRX Short Setup
* Current Price: $TRX 0.31984
* Bias: Bearish / Short
* Key Resistance: $TRX 0.3250 – $0.3350
* Target 1: $0.3100
* Target 2: $0.3000
* Stop Loss: $0.3420
Analysis: After failing to hold gains following the spike to $0.37589, the daily chart for TRX/USDT shows lower highs with moving averages capping upside momentum. As long as the price stays below the resistance zone, expect a drift back down toward the recent low support near $0.3000. Institutions have pulled out 800 million, but I'm still holding firm at 76,000
To be honest, I’m a bit confused tonight — institutions are pulling out, yet the price stubbornly refuses to drop. Who exactly is holding it up?
On Friday, the US Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of 412 million, with BlackRock alone accounting for 403 million, marking the second consecutive day of outflows; November has already seen 1.28 billion outflows. But $BTC is currently at 75,982, down only 0.17% in 24 hours. Last night’s 74,888 low wasn’t broken, and 76,000 has been tested all day.
My inclination is: outflows are real, but someone is buying at 76,000. The outflows are real cash, but the price not dropping indicates strong support. On Thursday, the whole network exploded with 1.26 billion in longs, 1.12 billion of which were leveraged, and most of the leverage has been washed out, leaving those unwilling to leave.
On the flip side, we have to acknowledge: continuous institutional outflows are not trivial. If next week follows the same pace, 76,000 breaks down, 74,888 breaks again, the next stop is 73,000. Then holding on at this level will be a joke.
So here’s a straightforward question: do you think ETF outflows mean institutions are the first to run, 76,000 will eventually break, and now is the time to catch the falling knife? Or do you think outflows are just outflows, 76,000 holding means a bottom, and betting near 75,000 to rebound to 80,000?
Just a market record, not investment advice #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 There is a key clause in the $AKE OKX Terms of Service: OKX may appoint "Affiliated Market Makers," who can make markets on the platform for their own accounts, hold positions opposite to those of users, and are under no obligation to act solely in your interest. The terms even explicitly state that user trades may be matched directly with these affiliated parties, and users agree not to claim against OKX for such transactions.$JUP
Aggregators sit between traders and liquidity, which gives Jupiter a view of much of Solana's trading flow. That position is valuable but not locked in, since users can switch routes in seconds. Its long-term story depends on whether it can add products beyond swaps while keeping that routing edge.$DOT
Polkadot pitched shared security for connected chains years ago, and the market has since offered many alternative designs. The architecture is still thoughtful. What remains uncertain is whether developers want its parachain model or prefer lighter options, and that gap shows up in ecosystem activity rather than in roadmaps.#Berkshire's massive cash reserves, the earnings report will reveal the latest developments The market is highly anticipating Berkshire's earnings report, with the core focus on changes in this "ammunition stockpile." Previously, cash plus short-term government bonds once approached a historic high of $400 billion, then slightly declined in the second quarter. The funds were mainly used to increase holdings in Google and boost share buybacks, without initiating a full-scale buying spree, maintaining an overall cautious stance.
There are two reasons behind the high cash balance: first, current US stock valuations are relatively high. After a surge in AI tech stocks, there are few large targets that meet Berkshire's return threshold; combined with the Federal Reserve's high interest rate environment, short-term debt yields attractive interest, making holding cash while earning coupon income a cost-effective defensive choice. Second, the insurance business needs to reserve sufficient liquidity to cope with catastrophic claims and other unexpected expenses, so this fund is not entirely "bottom-fishing capital" waiting to be deployed.
This earnings report focuses on three key points: month-over-month changes in cash, whether stocks are net sold or continue targeted accumulation, and the scale of buybacks. If cash surges again, it indicates Abel's judgment that market risks remain, which is a somewhat bearish "Buffett signal"; if cash significantly decreases and there is widespread buying of quality equity, it means institutional long-term funds recognize the prices after this round of adjustment. If only slight buybacks and sporadic accumulation occur, it indicates waiting for a larger-scale pullback. $BTC $ETH $SOL On November 5th, the market really panicked......
The exchange spot active trading volume difference (SVD) heavily shifted to the sell side, reaching the highest peak since the market rally started in August, and even surpassing the active selling pressure triggered by the Binance incident on October 30th.
Deeper sell-side dominance brought lower prices, and based on this, we cannot determine whether the buy orders have become thicker. Unless the next similar active selling pressure does not result in lower prices.
A Binance black swan event, a US stock market crash, two consecutive shocks in a short time have stretched the market nerves to the limit and dealt a significant blow to bullish confidence. Many people have started to doubt: has the bear market really ended? If the US stock market continues to crash, where will it take BTC?
People are often most afraid of the unknown darkness. This is when we need data to help us see more clearly. In my personal experience, it takes at least several weeks or even a couple of months for the market to digest panic sentiment; the probability of a direct V-shaped rebound is low.
For us, whether setting stop-loss points or finding entry points, this period requires close attention to changes in investor behavior, sentiment, and chip structure. If you are interested, you are welcome to join the subscription area for joint discussion, where more data will be synchronized in a timely manner.
Reposted from Murphy网格昨天看着挺热闹，底层结构却没表面那么美。 赚的和亏的，真能说明策略有效吗？ 昨天那组网格数据我盯了很久：价差网格落袋40u，返佣20u，止盈网格浮盈过百u，单看这几栏确实像一台小机器在稳稳吐糖🍬。可同一时间，重仓押在SanDisk上的那一笔亏了1wu多，几个月的辛苦几乎被一笔冲掉。这个反差比任何收益截图都值得看——它提醒我，网格的"热闹"和账户的"结构"经常是两回事。 先拆事件本身。网格赚的是波动和价差，本质是高频小口吃利润；返佣是交易所给的补贴，属于外部输血；止盈网格那100多u更像账面浮盈，还要看后续能不能真正落袋。而SanDisk这一笔是集中、大额、方向性下注，亏损1wu多直接把前面的细碎收益吞掉。问题不在网格不灵，而在于仓位结构里混进了一个和网格逻辑完全相反的东西：一个靠纪律吃小波动，一个靠信念赌大方向。 跨市场联动这条线更值得留意。SanDisk是存储芯片链条里的名字，它的价格情绪会顺着半导体、AI硬件、风险偏好传导。如果这块继续被追捧，山寨里的存储、算力、AI叙事容易被带着走；反过来，一旦硬件端回调，BTC和ETH通常先扛住，真正先失血的是高beta山寨和这类集中押注Saw some impressive data today: Canton Network accounts for $320.7 billion out of the $366 billion "tokenized assets" on RWA.xyz, a clear leader by a wide margin.
Breaking it down, this $320 billion almost entirely comes from Broadridge alone — the financial giant handling U.S. Treasury repo clearing, which processed $7.5 trillion in transactions just in September.
More importantly, these assets are called represented, meaning they are only recorded on their own ledger and cannot be freely transferred on-chain.
So this is not "RWA on-chain"; it's basically traditional finance moving internal ledgers to a different place. Analysts also say Canton now acts more like a bookkeeping layer, not a distribution layer.
With a $320 billion volume, the network's daily fees are only $1.3 million. Next time you see a headline like "RWA breaks X trillion," first ask: how much of that can truly circulate on-chain?
#RWA #Web3 #CantonThe number of bulls does not equal money
I don't bet based on headcount.
Binance SOL perpetual has 78.31% of accounts long, OKX spot is $89.80, this ratio is not the proportion of bullish funds. Accounts vary in size; more people does not mean more money.
$SOL
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Term Structure Radar
The first-level positive spread for $BTC is very small. The buy near sell far quote spread is +1.24%, with the first-level pair size about $15; at a scale of 10,000, this level only covers about 0.15%. Small orders can probe, but volume expansion must look at deeper levels.
For $SOL, the first-level negative spread of buy near sell far is deeper than the mark price spread. Near-month annualized +5.55%, far-month annualized +0.62%, the near end is more expensive; mark price near-far spread is -0.07%, buy near sell far first-level quote spread is -1.34%. Without the first level, cost cannot be estimated.三件事叠加决定本轮策略： 11-05 放量下跌后向下吞没前一日涨幅（反向吞没），80,000 上方确认为派发区 → 大方向偏空 74,500–74,900 是五重共振的江恩生命线（主周期1/4 + 四方形45° + 2025年4月低点 + 现低 + BOLL下轨）→ 不能在支撑上追空 76,270–76,530 与 77,320–77,530 是两道江恩压力带 → 反弹到压力带才是好的空单 因此策略是：空在压力，多只做生命线确认，中间不动。 今日（11-07 周六）执行清单 不建仓。 现价处于区间中位，周末流动性最薄（1H 成交仅 141 BTC），下单只会被滑点吃掉利润 挂三个价格提醒：74,500 / 76,550 / 77,320 明日（11-08）盯 75,432（1x1 角度线次日值）；跌破则转弱，但不要追空，等 74,500 仓位清零，等周一美盘 $BTC 周一至周三（11-09～11-11）决策窗口 11-10 = 1/14 高点后 300 日时间窗；11-11 = 上升1x1 与 76,270 阻力带交汇 → 价格与时间同步到达关键点。 周一/周二出现动作 放量收上 7This is a historic-level signal for BTC.
BTC mining difficulty has not returned to its peak for 374 consecutive days. The peak was 155.97T on October 29, 2025. The previous longest stretch in history was 364 days after the 2011 crash, followed by 253 days after China's mining ban in 2021. This time, 374 days, breaks the historical record.
What does this mean? From last October until now, for over a year, miners' computing power has been shrinking continuously. In June, the difficulty dropped to a low of 124.93T, 20% less than the peak. Although it bounced back to 148T in October, it is expected to drop another 3.7% on November 13.
Why is this happening? Three reasons: First, BTC prices are sluggish, miners are not profitable and have shut down; second, publicly listed mining companies are selling BTC and even shifting mining machines and electricity to AI computing power; third, after the Democratic midterm elections, data center restrictions are expected, worsening miners' outlook.
I have been trading for fifteen years, and this data is a contrarian indicator—miners surrendering and difficulty continuously dropping have appeared at every major cycle bottom in history. When miners can no longer hold on and shut down, it is often the darkest moment.
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $BTC $ETH $ZEC $AKE extremes will reverse; the shorts at the top have stretched the battle line so long, and the long leverage positions have all been liquidated. The remaining longs without leverage no longer care whether it falls or not. Further drops will only attract hungry wolves outside the market. Based on this, it can be inferred that currently, the stop-profit and stop-loss orders of shorts inside the market are more likely to be triggered. If you were the market maker, which side would you play next? Last night when the data came out, I had an open position.
October added 165,000 jobs, expected 65,000, more than double; unemployment rate didn’t rise but fell, from 4.2% to 4.1%. The narrative of "economic weakness, rate cut in December" that had been hanging around for half a year disappeared overnight.
$BTC was hovering around 75,500, but as soon as the data came out, it broke 75,000 directly, hitting a seven-week low at 74,762. This isn’t panic selling, it’s positions recalculating; if interest rates don’t come down, valuations can’t hold.
I’ve been trading for fifteen years; I’m not afraid of bad data, I’m afraid when data contradicts my own judgment. I didn’t buy the dip tonight. The batch of longs at 75,500 was cut at 74,600, the loss wasn’t big, but when the direction is wrong, you can’t hold on stubbornly.
I can’t guess whether rates will be raised in December, nor is it necessary. Just watch if 74,200 can hold; if it breaks, the next support is 73,000. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $SPY
Is the strong non-farm payroll data a profit boost or valuation pressure for the broader market?
The US added 165,000 non-farm jobs in October, significantly higher than the average monthly increase of 48,000 over the past 12 months. Employment shows resilience, and corporate demand may not slow down rapidly, but funding costs may not decrease quickly either.
The broader market depends on whether earnings growth can offset discount rate pressure. During sector divergence, index stabilization may also mask operational weakness in most companies.
I focus on earnings forecast revisions and market breadth. If more sectors raise earnings and the number of advancing stocks spreads, the recovery is healthier; if a few heavyweights drive gains while yields continue to rise, the index performance alone is insufficient to prove that risks have been resolved.$BTC 50x long positions holding on waiting for a rebound, even if the price remains unchanged, nearly 30% of the margin will be eaten up by funding fees in one month.
OKX BTC perpetual contracts have settled funding fees 279 times in nearly 93 days, with 257 times positive, meaning longs pay shorts, accounting for 92%.
In the past 30 days, 90 times totaled about 0.56% (calculated by position notional), converted to margin:
· 3x: about 1.7%
· 10x: 5.6%
· 20x: 11.2%
· 50x: 28%
Each time is only about 0.01%, deducted every 8 hours, so few people take it seriously. This round just turned negative today (−0.0004%), but negative rates have only appeared 22 times in nearly three months.
Leverage longs are not waiting for a rebound, they are paying rent every 8 hours.
Not investment advice | Data: OKX public API
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 Memecoins aren't leading this leg down. They're cheapest to push.
$PEPE -4.55% on $19.6M; $BTC -0.5% on twenty times the turnover, a ninth of the move. Which means one percent costs PEPE $4.3M, $NEAR $7.3M, $XRP $18.6M.
I stay out before the open. I flip if PEPE prints $30M without a new low.
Cheap to push is cheap to bounce.
Fade it, or wait for the book?
Crypto is high-risk. Personal observation only, not investment advice. DYOR.
$PEPE $NEAR $XRP
#Pepe #OKXOrbit #Crypto #Altcoins #BTC spot ETF has seen a net outflow of about $416 million this year. This is a critical turning signal: spot ETFs have long been a source of incremental funds since their launch, but now the funds have turned from positive to negative this year, indicating a general weakening in institutional allocation willingness.
The core pressure comes from the macro side: non-farm payroll data remains strong, the market has delayed rate cut expectations, U.S. Treasury yields stay high, and the appeal of the interest-free asset Bitcoin declines. Institutions prioritize returning to U.S. Treasuries and cash for defense. Coupled with the Democrats taking control of both houses of Congress, expectations for tighter crypto regulation have intensified, leading funds to reduce exposure in advance and increase risk-averse redemptions.
Structurally, differentiation is obvious: top products continue to see large outflows, but not all ETFs are being redeemed; some products still have small inflows, representing growing institutional divergence rather than a one-sided flight. Meanwhile, the pace of corporate treasury accumulation has slowed, weakening the buying force that originally absorbed selling pressure, thus weakening the supply-demand pattern and amplifying price volatility.
It is important to distinguish: the cumulative outflow scale this year is not extreme and has not reached panic-level stampede; it is more of a portfolio rebalancing. However, continuous outflows will suppress rebound heights, and each rise is likely to encounter redemption selling pressure. Going forward, key focus should be on U.S. Treasury yields, SEC regulatory developments, and weekly fund flows. If large outflows persist, it will further weaken the bulls' confidence.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK