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Raised approximately $2.521 billion, Strategy's Stretch completed its initial issuance and acquired 21,021 bitcoins Digital credit combines financial infrastructure developed over centuries, including corporate equity, preferred stock, trading markets, tax laws, and securities regulation. Strategy's Stretch completed its initial issuance in July 2025, raising about $2.521 billion. Strategy stated that it has used the net proceeds after deducting fees to purchase 21,021 bitcoins. Stretch is a perpetual preferred stock traded on Nasdaq, adopting a monthly dividend rate policy determined by the board of directors. $MSTR I've never quite understood: a company borrows money to buy coins, and the buyers of the coins are even scrambling to buy its preferred shares. So who exactly is making money from this? Strategy just played out this scenario. Stretch raised $2.521 billion, and after fees, bought 21,021 bitcoins, not a single one left. The most outrageous part is that what it issued isn't debt, but perpetual preferred shares—no maturity date, and the dividend rate can be changed by the board at monthly meetings. It means I get the money first, I decide the interest rate, and you don't have to wait for the principal. I originally thought the buyers were betting on $BTC going up, but later I realized they were actually betting that this company can always raise new money.Let's first look at an unassuming number: 2.521 billion USD, converted into 21,021 bitcoins. This is the fundraising and usage of Stretch under Strategy, with all proceeds, after issuance fees, fully invested into spot assets, not a cent left out. What’s noteworthy is the form of the money. Stretch is not a bond; it is a perpetual preferred stock traded on Nasdaq, with no maturity date, and the dividend rate is decided monthly by the board. It neither requires principal repayment nor promises a fixed coupon, so the financing cost is controlled by the issuer. Saylor calls this "digital credit"—combining company equity, preferred stock, trading markets, tax law, and securities regulation into a machine that continuously converts capital market funds into $BTC. First issued in July 2025, and still able to raise funds at this scale today, indicates no shortage of buyers. The issue is not on the demand side but on the cost side: the dividend rate floats, affordable when the coin price is good, but during sideways or deep declines, this expense becomes a fixed cost on the balance sheet. So this is not "buying coins again," but a choice of financing structure. Using perpetual preferred stock instead of convertible bonds means spreading the repayment pressure from "a certain day" to "every month," gaining the flexibility of no maturity date. Worth considering: as more entities learn to channel stock market money into $BTC this way, the marginal buyers will no longer be retail investors but a group of institutions extremely sensitive to dividend rates and net asset premiums. Their rhythm is even harder to predict than ETF subscriptions and redemptions.【Follow Old Chives, Wealth Is Yours】$AKT: The veteran decentralized computing power project moves to Solana, bringing new variables to the AI computing power track! The Akash community has passed governance proposal #346, deciding to migrate the standalone application chain originally running on Cosmos to Solana. This is not just a simple ecosystem switch but a fundamental architecture reconstruction. Why migrate? Akash itself is a decentralized cloud computing marketplace where GPU and server providers can rent out computing power, and developers can rent resources. With the growth of AI inference and GPU demand, Akash hopes to concentrate more resources on the computing power market rather than continuing to maintain an independent consensus chain. But migration also brings a key issue: Previously, AKT staking was used to maintain the security of Akash's independent chain; after migration, this demand may change. The project’s proposed AEP-95 adopts a one-way migration mechanism: locking AKT on the original chain, then minting an equivalent amount of SPL AKT on Solana after proof verification. In the initial phase, AKT on Solana will not have staking and governance functions. What’s truly worth attention is Akash’s BME mechanism: Users consuming computing power services may translate into AKT burn demand. If future computing power usage grows and net burns expand accordingly, AKT will have a more solid value capture logic. Currently, AKT is about $0.64, with a market cap of approximately $193 million, and a 7-day increase of about 5%–6%. However, trading volume and capital flow have not yet given strong confirmation $BTC $ETH 九月底那篇我说过，下次费率转负发跟踪帖，一起验证。这篇就是兑现。 先说结论：连续转负还是偏空，十次里七次跌。但这次多了一个提醒：它更像是"跌势没完"的确认，不是"跌到底了"的信号。想靠它抄底的人，十月这波要失望。 怎么测的，还是老口径。OKX 的 BTC 永续费率，每 8 小时一个点，前值大于等于零、当前值变负，记一次转负。看事件当天收盘到 7 天后收盘的涨跌。这次窗口是 8 月 6 日到 11 月 7 日，费率只保留三个月，这是 OKX 的规矩，样本就这么大。279 条费率记录，14 次转负，13 次能算出 7 天结果。 结果摆这。13 次里 5 涨 8 跌，中位数 -0.94%。拆开看，连续转负（前后 3 天内还有转负）10 次，3 涨 7 跌，中位数 -1.27%，平均 -0.78%，最惨一次 -3.24%，最好一次 +3.18%。单次转负（孤立出现）只剩 3 次，2 涨 1 跌，中位数 +1.40%。 跟九月底那版比，方向没变，力度变了。连续那条还是站得住：10 次里 7 次跌。九月 5 号、7 号那两次，我当时说偏空，结果 7 天分别跌了 3.24% 和 3.04%，这套当时Many people study macroeconomics every day, guessing when the US stock market will crash. But I pay more attention to one action: Berkshire Hathaway spent $9.6 billion on stock buybacks in the third quarter. In the same quarter, its operating profit fell by 5.8%, and net profit dropped by 28%. If you only look at the income statement, you would think this company is weakening. But if you look at buybacks, cash reserves, and management's capital allocation together, the story is different. The market trades fear every day, but the real big money must answer a more practical question: where exactly should the money in hand be placed? Holding cash has its cost, buying stocks has its risk. No asset is worth unconditional bullishness, and no cash is worth indefinite hoarding. The hardest skill in investing is not predicting when a crisis will come. It is whether you have the courage and discipline to act when the opportunity truly arises.Whales — "Partial Replenishment," Not New Capital A dormant address that previously sold 5,699 BTC near $89,000 withdrew 3,009 BTC (about $228 million) from Binance on November 6 in the $75,000–$76,000 range, but only covered half of the previously sold amount. This is a "sell high, buy low" arbitrage operation, not new capital entering the market. Although there is a shift in accumulation direction among ultra-large holders with over 10,000 BTC, the continued outflow from the US spot ETF and the contraction of stablecoin liquidity indicate that overall spot demand remains weak. Derivatives — Long Positions Have Been Cleared, but Option Gamma Suppression Persists During this week's decline, $428 million in long positions were liquidated, with $265 million liquidated in a single 12-hour unilateral long session; the derivatives market saw forced liquidations exceeding $1.27 billion within 24 hours, with bullish positions liquidated over $1.1 billion. Leveraged longs have undergone a round of systemic cleansing, but the $11 billion option settlement's Gamma pressure is concentrated in the $70,000–$82,000 range, and market makers' hedging may accelerate sell-offs around the settlement. The largest pain point for today's expiry is at $79,000, about 3,000 points from the current price. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美军再度打击伊朗，霍尔木兹海峡重开仍存分歧 #cohr's performance growth exceeds expectations, can it drive a rebound in optical stocks? My view is: mrvl and lite are unlikely to return to previous highs in the short term due to acquisition impacts. For cohr, optical interconnection is simultaneously driving revenue growth and profitability improvement. In Q1 of fiscal 2027, revenue was $2.37 billion, up 50% year-over-year; adjusted EPS grew 80%, adjusted gross margin rose to 40.6%, an increase of 1.84 percentage points year-over-year, indicating growth is translating into stronger profitability. The company expects comparable revenue growth excluding sold businesses to exceed 60% for the full year, further reinforcing expectations of accelerated growth. The approximately $20 billion five-year PhotonLink agreement also enhances long-term demand visibility, but revenue from this agreement will not ramp up until early 2028 and cannot be counted in near-term performance. The most critical test going forward is whether capacity expansion can continue to convert into deliveries and profits. If capacity is smoothly released and gross margin continues to improve, COHR is expected to maintain a trend of profit growth outpacing revenue growth, providing earnings support for the stock price; delayed deliveries or stagnant profit margins would weaken this bullish thesis. AI stocks rebounded, but the gains shrank by half, did the bottom-fishers end up taking the hit again? Not necessarily. A single day of a rise followed by a fall is not enough to declare the rebound dead. Last night, Nvidia rose about 7% intraday but closed with only 2.8%; the Nasdaq narrowed from 1.7% to 1.1%. There were buyers at the low, but once the price went up, sell orders pushed it down. Three points to clarify: 1. Panic easing ≠ confidence restored The rebound includes both bottom-fishers and short-covering. Just because some dare to bet doesn’t mean others dare to chase the highs. 2. After a big drop, a rebound is possible; to keep rising requires worries to cool down The market fears tighter AI regulation and a slowdown in data centers. One day of price increase won’t make these issues disappear; we still need to watch policy details and capital expenditure guidance. 3. The sector is diverging AMD and Intel closed up about 11% and 8%, clearly stronger than Nvidia; capital is starting to pick selectively. Next week, watch three things: whether the pullback can hold Friday’s low, whether the leading stocks can continue to be strong, and whether the price can hold above Friday’s high on another rally. Repeated high opens and low closes mean using the rebound to exit; a pullback with shrinking volume followed by expanding volume breakout means the rebound is solid. Panic is retreating, but there aren’t enough buyers chasing the rise yet. The first bullish candle only shows the downtrend is easing; whether the bottom is solid depends on subsequent support.$SAFE Safe became the standard multisig wallet for DAOs and teams managing large treasuries. That trust is hard to replicate. The question is how directly the SAFE token captures value from that usage, since a widely used product doesn't automatically create token demand.$MORPHO Morpho builds lending markets on top of existing liquidity, letting curators set up vaults with different risk profiles. That modular design is its edge. The open question is whether vault growth keeps coming from real borrowing demand rather than incentives alone.$PENGU Pudgy Penguins grew from an NFT collection into a consumer brand with toys and a token. That crossover gives PENGU reach most memecoins lack. Still, brand strength and token demand are different things, so attention cycles deserve caution. $S$S Sonic is the rebranded evolution of Fantom, built for fast finality and an incentive program that rewards developers. A rebrand resets the narrative, not the fundamentals. Developer retention and sustained app usage will show whether the reset worked.$xBRKB $伯克希尔哈撒韦已于美东时间 11 月 7 日盘前公布 Q3 财报。整体看，这是一份运营利润小幅下滑、保险承压、现金再创新高、回购明显加速的季报。 业务拆解 保险板块明显走弱。 三季度承保利润仅 13.52 亿美元，同比下滑约 43%；保险投资收入也从 31.81 亿美元降至 27.34 亿美元。主要原因是赔付压力上升、竞争加剧，以及降息环境下固定收益再投资收益回落。 实业板块韧性较强。 BNSF 铁路运营利润 17.29 亿美元，同比增约 19%；伯克希尔能源 16.12 亿美元，同比增约 8%；制造、服务与零售板块 40.42 亿美元，同比增约 12%。 投资收益拖累净利润。 三季度净投资收益 94.07 亿美元，低于去年同期的 173.11 亿美元。 伯克希尔再次提醒，GAAP 净利润包含持仓未实现盈亏，波动较大，评估经营表现应以运营利润为主。 资本配置信号 这份财报最值得关注的不是利润小幅下滑，而是现金与回购的组合： ● 现金升至 3774 亿美元，说明公司仍找不到足够多、足够便宜的收购标的； ● 三季度回购 96 亿美元，为年内$UUP How long can the US dollar's employment support last? The US added 165,000 nonfarm jobs in October, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. The data strengthens evidence of the US economy's resilience, but the dollar's price trades on the relative path between the US and other economies. Good US data only more likely provides sustained support if growth or interest rate advantages continue to expand. If overseas economies improve simultaneously, the dollar's relative advantage may not continue to increase. I observe whether changes in interest rate differentials align with subsequent data. If the US advantage expands and capital flows persist, the dollar's logic is more complete; if strong data is just a single-month fluctuation and the interest rate differential narrows, expectations for continued dollar strength need to be lowered.【Follow Old Leeks, Wealth Is Yours】$POL: 70.49 million stolen tokens are planned to be recovered through a hard fork, Polygon is conducting a governance stress test! Recently, a special proposal appeared in the Polygon community: it plans to coordinate a hard fork to transfer approximately 70.49 million native POL tokens stuck in attacker addresses from two security incidents back to the recovery addresses designated by Polymarket and Binance. Among them: Polymarket-related: about 23.86 million POL Binance-related: about 46.63 million POL According to the proposal's reference price, the total is about 6.5 million USD. Note: This is neither a burn nor a buyback. The proposal clearly states that the total supply remains unchanged before and after the transfer. What is truly worth noting is: can the blockchain recover stolen assets through governance and consensus upgrades during special security incidents? Meanwhile, Polygon also proposed the PIP-93 draft, planning to consolidate multiple security committees into an 11-member Security Council, adopting an 8/11 multisig threshold and a 7-day Timelock. However, both matters still require subsequent governance and technical execution and should not be considered completed positive developments yet.Every time I see the overall inflation at 4% and core inflation at 2.5% side by side, I pause for a moment: which one should I really be afraid of? Lagarde has made the calculation clear this time. A large part of the 4% is oil and gas; energy inflation surged from 18.9% to 20.8%, and food prices followed suit. If you exclude energy, food, and tobacco and alcohol, the core is 2.5%, exactly the same as in September. Oil and gas prices will fall, but the core won’t fall on its own—that’s common sense. So when she says it will remain high for the next few quarters, I believe it. The painful part is for those holding $BTC; even though the core hasn’t moved, they still have to wait a few more months for rate cuts. $ETH is even worse—rises are the steepest, and waiting is the most agonizing.越跌越买，看起来像在捡便宜，其实是在悄悄把风险往下压。 这波下跌里，挂单越堆越厚，真的是机会吗？ 我这两天盯着 $SNDK 和 $MU 的盘口，有种很微妙的感觉。表面上买盘密密麻麻，价格却一档一档往下走，热闹和方向完全不在同一边。很多人把这种动作叫"摊低成本"，但换个角度看，每一次加仓，止损位其实也被一起推得更低，风险并没有消失，只是被往后挪了。 更有意思的是资金偏好这层。买单一侧明显比卖单一侧厚出好几倍，可价格还是被压着走，说明真正成交的方向并不站在买方这边。一边接货，一边出货，单子越堆越多，价格反而更容易继续往下滑。这不是谁在针对谁，而是仓位重的人自己把退路一点点收窄了。 偏多的逻辑也不是没有。如果这里是趋势的启动阶段，这种密集承接会变成很好的燃料，一旦卖压松动，反弹会又快又急，山寨和风险偏好也会跟着回暖。但现在更像分歧阶段，甚至有点派发的味道。每多跌一档，浮亏放大的速度是翻倍的，仓位越重，越容易被自己的持仓拖住，而不是被市场收割。 所以我现在更愿意把这类堆单看成情绪的温度计，而不是抄底信号。真正的转折，得看成交量有没有配合、卖压有没有真的变薄。单子厚不等于底到了。 堆单堆不出底部SanDisk rebounded all night but fell back in just half a day The night before yesterday, SanDisk followed chip stocks to rebound near 910. Today it dropped back below 850. Where did this money come from: The gainers were computing power stocks like AMD and TSMC. The storage sector didn’t keep up; SanDisk’s rebound was on its own. How is this number calculated: The drop from 1400 to 950 was all people buying halfway through. Once the price went up, this batch of orders started selling out. The weak rebound isn’t because no one is buying, but because sell orders waiting to break even are pressing down from above. Storage price cuts have just begun, and SanDisk is at the forefront of this chain. The batch of sell orders placed at Monday’s open is still waiting in place. #Anthropic仍计划11月IPO，投资者下调估值预期 #$AMD Today's drop is not just a problem within the crypto circle, but a concentrated outbreak of risks from the US stock market, macro sentiment, and the crypto market. 1. AI bubble concerns trigger US stock sell-off The market is starting to question whether the huge AI investments by tech giants can bring corresponding returns. The Nasdaq plunged, the semiconductor sector collectively dived, with Nvidia, AMD, MU, SNDK, etc. under pressure, and risk capital began to withdraw. 2. Trump’s company tran#软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ Looking at the numbers alone, this Q2 report is impressive enough; OpenAI's valuation surge has directly pushed SoftBank to its highest half-year profit in history. But this impressive figure is just paper wealth; the real test lies ahead: whether OpenAI can continue to deliver revenue growth, successfully go public, and maintain its valuation will ultimately determine the success or failure of this heavy investment.Lagarde herself presented the numbers: Europe's overall inflation in October was 4%, higher than the expectations from a few months ago but in line with market forecasts. This statement sounds mild but is actually firm on both ends—the expectations were revised upward, but the market had already anticipated this. Breaking it down, the 4% is not a uniform increase. Energy inflation jumped from 18.9% in September to 20.8%, and food prices are also rising. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, remains at 2.5%, exactly the same as in September; service sector inflation is at 3.3%, slightly up but still within the range of the past four months. This is the key point: what is rising is the price level, not an inflation spiral. Energy is a cost shock, a one-time step up that affects the overall number but does not automatically impact the core. The real determinants of monetary policy are core inflation and services, and neither has moved. So when Lagarde says inflation will remain high for the next few quarters and that close attention must be paid to the inflation composition and energy price impact, the translation is that the window for rate cuts is being pushed back, not closed. For interest-free assets like $BTC, delaying rate cuts means real interest rates remain high, putting pressure on valuations; but from another perspective, if the ECB is forced to tighten due to energy prices while core inflation does not cooperate, it actually gains more reason to see through the energy effect. What’s worth watching is not the 4%. It’s whether the 20.8% energy inflation can transmit to the 3.3% service sector inflation. If it doesn’t transmit, the ECB will eventually cut rates, and $ETH and risk assets still have a chance; if it does transmit, that’s when the real trouble begins.#AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ AMD's earnings report sent a somewhat positive signal, with the core being that both growth acceleration and profit resilience were validated. Q3 revenue grew 45% year-over-year, data center revenue increased by 97%, and adjusted EPS rose 74%, indicating that business expansion is generating scale effects. More notably, the Q4 revenue guidance reached $17 billion, exceeding the market expectation of $16.23 billion; management also expects revenue growth to exceed 80% by 2027, further enhancing the visibility of future growth. However, the Q4 adjusted gross margin guidance dropped from 56% in Q3 to 55%, indicating that revenue growth does not necessarily lead to gross margin improvement. My judgment is that AMD's fundamentals remain optimistic, but whether the stock price can continue to be supported depends critically on whether new product deliveries can meet growth expectations and whether profit growth can continue to outpace revenue growth. 过去24小时，$BTC、$ETH、$SOL 的合约爆仓数据出现了一个值得警惕的错位：被扫出场的主要是空头，而不是多头。$BTC 爆仓逾3亿美元，其中空单约2.6亿、多单仅4000万；$ETH 爆仓1.8亿美元，空单1亿、多单8000万；$SOL 爆仓超5000万美元，多空接近持平、多单略占上风。表面看是买方回来了，但资金费率仍为正，说明追多情绪在累积，而非趋势已被确认。 这更像一场对空头的定向挤压，而非方向性行情的起点。关键差别在于：空头被动平仓带来的买盘是一次性的，平完就消失；而价格上方还压着前期套牢盘和获利了结盘，这两股力量会在反弹中陆续释放。把爆仓数据当成单边看涨信号，是当前最容易犯的错。 $ETH 的结构最值得细看。空单1亿、多单8000万，看似多头占优，但短周期多单爆仓比例在上升，意味着杠杆资金密集堆在窄幅区间里，价格稍有波动就会触发连锁反应。这种高弹性同时也是高脆弱性——涨得快，回撤同样快。$ETH 的多头逻辑需要资金费率回落、现货承接跟上才能成立，否则只是杠杆在自我循环。 $SOL 则是另一种状态。爆仓刚过5000万美元，多单略高于空单，资金热度偏弱，波动相对温和。它现在$ONDO faces a token unlock of 1.94 billion tokens in January 2027. $UNI has a fee-funded burn mechanism. One fights dilution. The other has a mechanism to reduce supply. Neither guarantees price appreciation. But this is the question every long-term investor should ask: **If both businesses grow 10x in size, which token is actually designed to benefit?** This is the difference between buying a successful business narrative and owning the token that captures its success. Which one would you rather hold for five years? $UNI$ONDO 别急着把火箭股那根阳线当成风险偏好回来了，我第一眼也差点这么想。 可真正该盯的，是它有没有把跨市场那根弦重新拨动？ 周五那根蜡烛收在134.27，涨8.62%，盘中最高135.32、最低128.57，刚好蹭在5日线上方一点。表面是情绪缓过来了，但我更在意的是：这只是一次修复，还是风险偏好真的换了挡。毕竟这根阳线放在链上蜡烛图里看着更有包裹感，可股价离140那道坎还差一口气，说明多头只是把脚伸回门内，没真正推门进去。 我自己的仓位日记里，这种位置最容易犯的错，是把"止跌"误读成"反转"。上一次类似节奏，我就是看到企稳信号先加了仓，结果阻力位前被来回磨掉耐心，最后在启动前把筹码交了出去。所以这次我更愿意先看确认，而不是抢跑。 跨市场这条线其实很有意思。火箭股走强，理论上会带动高beta叙事——太空概念、卫星链、相关山寨的情绪先被点着，然后才轮到BTC和ETH去承接更大的风险偏好。但关键是，这种传导有滞后，也有前提：得看到成交量跟上、140被有效拿下，资金才愿意把它当成"新叙事"而不是"超跌反弹"。如果只有价格修复、量能没跟上，那对加密市场来说更像一次情绪脉冲，撑不起板块轮动。 偏多的路径很#软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ The boss has something to say I came across this SoftBank news again, but the background has changed tonight: OpenAI just closed its first $11 billion financing round, valued at 1.25 trillion, far below the originally planned $30 billion. SoftBank has invested a total of $64.6 billion in OpenAI. On November 10, it will release FY26 Q2 results, with market expectations of a net profit of 2.5 trillion yen and Vision Fund earnings of 350 million. But the community reminds us that SoftBank is betting with junk bonds yielding 10%, its stock price has dropped 50% from the June high, and CDS has risen to 432 basis points. My interpretation is: OpenAI's valuation has shrunk, and SoftBank is the most hurt leveraged player. Weak demand in the primary market and delayed AI infrastructure IPOs mean that SoftBank's structure of issuing debt to bet on a single unlisted giant will be the first to be squeezed out. For the crypto circle, this is a continuation of AI risk appetite — from AAOI, IREN to SoftBank, the market is repricing AI spending, and BTC is following risk appetite in the short term. BTC current price is about 74,800, sideways on Saturday. My approach: 75,000 remains resistance, looking down to 73,000; I will not add any high-beta leveraged positions before the SoftBank earnings report. Light positions over the weekend, waiting for the US stock market to open on Monday to decide direction. The above analysis is timely, please stay safe. $BTC $ETH $ZEC ONE directly surged 57% today, jumping from 0.0011 to 0.00198, nearly doubling in one day. Trading volume expanded 21 times, from a few million to over twenty million dollars. Interestingly, after the rise, mainstream media only gave one sentence as the reason, with no confirmed catalyst. So what is the market speculating on? After some research, two explanations were found. First is transformation. Harmony is preparing to shift from a Layer 1 public chain to the "AI video" sector, creating a pl$BTC is currently at $75,917, down 0.04% in 6 hours $ETH is currently at $2,244.24, flat in 6 hours, up 0.74% in 24 hours, ranging between 2,237 and 2,247, with resistance at 2,250 and support at 2,230. Both have narrowed in volume and fluctuated within a tight range. This is attributed to the US October nonfarm payrolls exceeding expectations overnight with an increase of 165,000, and rising expectations for a rate hike in December. The US dollar index rose 0.71%, suppressing risk assets, but Binance panic has been digested, with limited selling pressure, thus holding the 76,000 level. In terms of operations, BTC is holding above 75,600 with a slightly bullish fluctuation; reduce positions if it breaks below. ETH is watching the 2,230 support. Trading profits come from differences in cognition, not emotional differences; moving slower actually gets closer to the answer. This is only a personal review record and does not constitute any investment advice. The market has risks; operate cautiously. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 00:40 AM record: Account net value is 96,800, down 3.2% from last week's peak. The BTC stop-loss order is set at 74,200 and hasn't moved for three days. This account posts daily real trading net values and stop-loss points; profits are posted, losses are posted as well. If you can't keep up, just unfollow. BTC is now 75,936, up 0.4% in 24 hours; ETH 2,245, up 0.9%; SOL barely moved, up 0.1%. All three assets are stagnant, but the background is JobsReportRaisesHikeOdds: employment data has pushed up the odds of a rate hike again. According to textbooks, this news should suppress risk assets, but prices have actually slightly risen. My interpretation is: the current situation is closer to no one rushing to sell, but it hasn't reached the point where people are buying. Chips have shifted from weak hands to strong hands, so prices are holding steady. But volume hasn't increased; this "holding" is defensive, not offensive. So I’m not adding positions: for every 1% increase above 76,000, I reduce one tier, leaving the remaining base position untouched, waiting for the direction to reveal itself. A question for you to choose one: at a time when the probability of a rate hike is rising, do you first cut your position to 50% to lock in profits, or maintain full position betting it will touch 80,000? Follow me for daily public real trading positions and stop-loss logic; losses are honestly reported as well. #OKXProphet , giving some data support for a December rate hike next. It further pushes the December hike to actually happen. Based on market bets on Fed hiking in December, the hike probability is roughly around 80%. But usually, besides the market pricing in the hike expectation and falling before the hike, there is also a sell-the-fact drop after the hike. If in 2027 the Fed keeps hiking or enters a "hike cycle", Then no matter for crypto or US stocks, the upside will be suppressed. $BTC from around 80k Are you numb yet? Hyperliquid continued to buy back and burn 21,000 HYPE tokens (about $1.66 million) in the past 24 hours, bringing the total burned amount close to 50 million tokens, accounting for 5% of the total supply. The protocol revenue in the past month was about $63.94 million, ranking first among all protocols, with 97%-99% continuously converted into buy orders. This is HYPE's strongest trump card, but it cannot hedge against concentrated daily sell-offs worth tens of millions of dollars. The core issue now is that HYPE is stuck in a deadlock where the fundamentals are supporting the bottom, but the chip distribution is causing sell-offs. Buybacks and burns provide real value support, but the continuous inflow of a16z and large holders into exchanges creates clear short-term selling pressure. The market's pricing power is currently in the hands of the sellers. Just watch one signal: whether $75 can hold. If it holds, it means buybacks plus low-level support can still absorb a16z's sell-offs, and the deadlock continues; if it breaks, it means even the protocol's high-intensity buybacks can't withstand this wave of chip distribution, and the depth and duration of the correction will be extended. AHR999指标、恐惧贪婪指数、历史周回报率以及定投成本，目前的市场呈现出典型的“极度恐慌+估值触底”的左侧特征。 恐慌蔓延，又到了“别人恐惧我贪婪”的时刻 最近大盘跌得让人没脾气。看了下最新的数据，几个关键指标都在疯狂闪烁“抄底”信号，简单说说目前的盘面： 1️⃣ 情绪面：极度恐惧 看图一的贪婪与恐惧指数，目前已经跌到了 26（恐惧）。要知道之前还在 72（贪婪）的高位，这波情绪杀跌非常明显。 2️⃣ 估值面：AHR999 亮起绿灯 图一右侧明确提示了当前状态“适合抄底”。看图三的具体数据，Ahr999 指标已经跌到了 0.43 - 0.49 区间，处于历史上的定投极佳击球区。 更关键的是，目前 BTC 价格（约 7.5万-8万美元区间）距离 200日定投成本（约7.26万美元） 已经非常接近了，这是一个极强的心理和技术支撑位。 3️⃣ 历史规律：连跌四周，至暗时刻？ 看图二的历年周回报率，2026年（即当前年份）的第41周到第44周，居然是连续四周全红（收跌）。不过参考历史，2017和2022年的第45周也曾出现过 -21% 的极端暴跌。目前恐慌盘可能已经释放得差不多了。 不要一如果你觉得现在的狗狗币已经没希望了，不妨看看它过去的表现。 2014年暴跌约56%，2017年却暴涨超过3900%！ 2018年再次暴跌约74%，2021年又迎来超过3500%的年度涨幅！ 2022年下跌约59%，2024年反弹超过250%，随后2025年又下跌约63%。 这就是DOGE最真实的一面：疯狂上涨，残酷回撤，周期反复。 但千万别被历史平均收益率迷惑。少数年份的巨额涨幅会显著拉高平均值，大多数投资者未必能抓住行情。 我依然认为DOGE值得长期观察，但下一轮大行情需要新的资金、市场情绪和实际应用共同推动，而不是只靠过去的故事。A person who does charity ends up reporting the probability of human extinction. This in itself is quite absurd. Vitalik said in a podcast that he was attracted to EA back then because of one number: $2000 to buy a mosquito net could save a life. He calculated that he should spend money the same way. From 2016 to 2017, Ethereum rose tenfold, and he sold a small portion to donate. Of the batch of cryptocurrency in 2021, the part donated to the Future of Life Institute, he recalled, was roughly worth $400 to $600 million. The divergence came later. FLI’s direction changed, narrowing from researching all risks threatening human survival to focusing only on AI safety, and increasingly moving toward policy action. Vitalik said he tried to communicate, hoping they would broaden their scope, but was rejected. His explanation is quite straightforward: EA is very effective in the domain of humans versus nature, like malaria prevention and buying mosquito nets, where input and output can be clearly calculated. Once it moves into the domain of humans versus humans, the accounts become unclear because you are no longer judging effects but who should have the power to decide the direction. So he talks about d/acc, defensive acceleration: not betting on whether we can stop or not, but first developing technologies that can protect people and decentralize power, such as cybersecurity, vaccines, and air filtration. When asked about the probability of human extinction, he said 0.1. What’s worth thinking about is this 0.1. It’s not 0, nor 1. It means he neither says stop everything nor says do whatever you want. The market loves narratives of 0 and 1 the most; no one wants to price the middle ground.市场总爱追逐“更快、更便宜”，但技术升级和代币上涨之间，还隔着真实需求这道坎。今天看ETH、SOL、POL三条路线。 ①ETH：11月6日，以太坊基金会确认，Glamsterdam测试发现部分合约可能受EIP-8037、8038的Gas计费变化影响，Hoodi分叉因此暂缓。安全优先是好事，却也暴露升级兼容风险。关注修复进度、审计反馈及新的测试时间，别把延迟直接理解成利空出尽。 ②SOL：11月6日生态月报披露，10月目标出块间隔降至200毫秒，Alpenglow已在主网上线，报告称RWA规模达到50亿美元。性能叙事正在向资产落地延伸，但速度不等于收入。观察稳定币活跃用户、链上费用及RWA实际交易。 ③POL：Polygon在10月29日宣布Open Money Stack支持Solana，试图把不同链的支付流程接入同一套工具。跨链覆盖扩大不代表POL自动受益。重点看企业接入、真实结算额和费用归属，警惕生态增长与代币价值脱节。Today's BTC mainly fluctuated repeatedly around $75,000. The current price is about $75,900, with a 24-hour change almost flat (-0.25%~+0.01%), the daily high at 76,416 and low at 74,888, with a volatility of about 2%. This day's market action is like going out for a walk and returning to the starting point . Interestingly, market participants' attitudes have diverged: Binance whales' long-to-short ratio is 2.08, down 3.25% in 24 hours; but the number of accounts' long-to-short ratio is as high as 3.35, and OKX accounts' long-to-short ratio is 3.04. Overall, institutions are reducing positions while retail investors continue to go long. The funding rate is +0.0085%, meaning longs have to pay a fee periodically; in the past 24 hours, longs were liquidated for $104 million, shorts only $20 million, showing longs are under significant pressure . Coupled with better-than-expected nonfarm payroll data, cooling rate cut expectations, and net outflows from ETFs, the macro environment is also suppressing bullish sentiment. Going forward, it will most likely continue to oscillate between 74,888 and 76,500: if it breaks below 74,888, bears will have more advantage, with the next target at 74,000; only by reclaiming 76,500 can the market have a chance to stabilize again. Weekend liquidity is low, so it is advised not to mistake a slight rebound for a trend reversal, nor to panic excessively due to short-term sharp fluctuations. #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 行情低迷时，最值得追踪的不是口号，而是技术能否换来持续使用和收入。 ETH： 以太坊基金会11月6日披露，Glamsterdam测试发现部分应用可能受到Gas计费调整影响，Hoodi分叉暂缓。主动排雷比带病上线更重要，但延期也增加不确定性。接下来关注修复、审计及测试网重启，而非盲猜主网上线日。 SOL： Solana基金会11月6日月报称，10月目标出块间隔降至200毫秒，Alpenglow已激活，RWA规模达到50亿美元。性能与机构资产都在推进，但资产规模不等于链上收入。观察稳定币转账活跃度、费用和应用留存，警惕数据热闹却缺乏价值捕获。 AVAX： Avalanche官方资料确认，Helicon升级已于9月22日主网生效，带来连续执行、动态最低Gas价格等变化。这不是本周新利好，而是检验升级成效的旧节点。关注C链真实交易、验证者经济和手续费；技术优化若没有需求承接，币价未必受益。This is somewhat interesting, but my first reaction isn't to chase the AI concept; rather, I want to distinguish whether the company's earnings are actually related to the tokens.👀 According to reports, Core Scientific sold 816 $BTC in Q3 and held only 32 as of September 30; management stated that the mining business will end on December 31, 2026. Of the $233 million revenue that quarter, hosting contributed $215 million. I tend to see this as a sentiment catalyst for the AI infrastructure narrative, rather than a universal benefit for small tokens: hosting revenue makes up the majority, indicating the business focus is indeed shifting; but corporate orders do not mean tokens can capture the revenue. Highly volatile assets may gain attention due to themes but are also prone to retreat once correlations are disproven. I will watch whether related projects have real customers and how revenue translates to tokens, not just who is riding the AI wave. Recently, are you more focused on AI computing power or mining transformation tracks, and which validation metrics do you value more?KOSPI周五在熔断20分钟的情况下收跌6.02%，三星$SAMSUNG 跌6.35%，海力士$xSKHY 跌10.44%，外资一天直接卖了2.8万亿韩元出去。所以现在的情况就是没人能证明跌完了，而抄底的前提就是跌完了，就算买不到低点，至少也别在半山腰接飞刀吧🤧$PEPE Brother Sun took quite a lot, whether it's spot or long and short positions, he basically won't let go. If you can avoid participating, don't participate. You have to listen to Brother Sun, and stay as far away as possible from Brother Sun's projects.$BTC 在75,000—78,000美元区间反复拉扯，$ETH 围绕2,200—2,300美元窄幅整理，10月BTC、ETH分别下跌7.3%和16.0%，市场广度急剧收缩。震荡的根源不在价格本身，而在资金结构：BTC与ETH现货ETF双双净流出，ETH单月流出高达16亿美元，机构需求呈战术性收缩。更棘手的是，全市场未平仓合约已降至12个月新低，杠杆基本出清，但永续资金费率仍为正，多头还在为“看多”付费——筹码出清了，不肯认输的人却还在硬撑。‌ 未来走向大概率不是单边突破，而是先探底、再分化。10x Research预计BTC年底仍可能触及9万美元，但前提是先跌至7.7万—7.9万美元完成最后洗盘，且ETH表现将弱于BTC，因为价值持续流向Layer2，ETH持有者未获得足够回报。触发趋势转折的关键信号是资金费率转负，那才意味着多头真正认输、底部结构成立；在此之前，反弹更可能是修复而非反转。Behind the Over-release of 2.55 Million CORE Tokens: Why CORE's "Bleeding" Is More Fatal Than Ethereum's DAO Crisis CORE exposed a vulnerability that prematurely released 2.55 million reward tokens. Although this security incident superficially resembles the Ethereum DAO crisis, the level of damage is completely different. The DAO vulnerability was a defect in the upper-layer DApp contract, while Ethereum's underlying protocol remained intact. The stolen funds were also subject to a lock-up period, giving the community ample time to respond. After network-wide debates, voting, and a hard fork, Ethereum completed consensus filtering, significantly boosting its reputation and turning the crisis into an opportunity for growth. In contrast, CORE's issue lies in the L1 underlying block reward issuance mechanism, with the vulnerability directly affecting the token release rules. Although it did not breach the 2.1 billion total supply cap, a large amount of future tokens entered the circulating market prematurely, intensifying inflationary selling pressure. The project has only 21 validator nodes, indicating weak decentralization, and governance heavily depends on the project team. A subsequent hard fork reclaimed some tokens, but approximately 690,000 tokens have already dispersed to external wallets, forming a looming supply overhang. Compounded by the chain's meager on-chain gas revenue, tightening exchange liquidity, and competition siphoning users in the BTCFi sector, the vulnerability shattered the market's remaining confidence. Though both are crises: Ethereum was an application-layer injury with a stable consensus foundation; CORE exposed flaws in the underlying monetary mechanism, further worsening an already fragile economic model, causing sustained damage.$xMSFT Observation: Oracle computing power lease reduction, spot chip decline on Friday Microsoft token current price 531.44, 24h change +0.09%, range 521.75-538.52, volume about 57,000 USDT Bloomberg citing insiders reports Microsoft has gradually stopped using AI computing power leased from Oracle in recent months and decided not to renew the lease, as Oracle mainly uses older generation Nvidia chips that no longer meet demand changes (China News Service/Financial Associated Press) CNBC states Microsoft is simultaneously evaluating reductions in neocloud providers like CoreWeave, Nebius, Nscale, prioritizing self-built data centers, with external computing power lease commitments exceeding $80 billion On Friday, US stock spot Microsoft down about -0.99%, Philadelphia Semiconductor up +4.21%, Nvidia about +2.78%, the market interprets this revaluation as AI external procurement contraction, not just efficiency improvement Bulls see self-built data centers cutting waste from old chip leases, bears see external procurement brakes dragging the entire AI infrastructure chain; this expectation will be repeatedly priced in before Nvidia's earnings on November 17. #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% 🚀 BTC and ETH remain steady, while ZEC leads with unusual movement—could it be the market's indicator? Recently, BTC and ETH have been oscillating at high levels, but the veteran privacy coin ZEC (Zcash) has broken through the market with a strong move! Is this an early hint of the overall market direction, or a carefully crafted "long-short double kill" scheme by the whales? From on-chain and trading data, the long-short battle is extremely fierce: Retail investors are bearish, whales are bullish: Binance & OKX network-wide account long-short ratios are low at 0.75-0.88, showing retail investors are generally bearish; however, Binance large accounts have a long-short ratio as high as 1.4355, indicating a typical divergence between large holders and retail! Long and short positions both explode, devastatingly: 24-hour network-wide liquidations reached $12,756,500 (short liquidations $7,770,000, long liquidations $4,980,000), extreme volatile shakeouts have caused heavy casualties on both leveraged sides. Major players fiercely competing at high levels: ZEC is experiencing intense turnover between $1270-$1290, with large holders like 0xe2ad selling to open shorts worth $4,570,000, and large funds selling to close longs at high levels, showing huge long-short divergence. #ZEC巨鲸3.8万枚空单平仓，亏损超3500万美元 #ZEC机构资金入场，高位杠杆开始出清 $ETH $ZEC $BTC 🚀 SOL has been oscillating around 90 for a long time; could the bottom really have appeared? SOL is consolidating in the $89-$90 range, and many traders are eager to buy the dip. However, considering the volume-price structure and liquidation data, it is still too early to talk about "bottom confirmation," and there is a very high risk of a short-term downward probe! Breaking down several core contradictions from market and on-chain data: * The volume-price structure is a downward continuation: the 4-hour K-line shows a gradual decline with a stepwise downtrend. Previous drops and rallies were accompanied by huge sell volumes (prominent red volume bars), but currently, volume shrinks significantly during sideways movement near $89.9. "Sideways low volume" in a downtrend is often a bull trap continuation rather than a successful bottom formation. * Liquidation pain points are firmly locked below: liquidation gravity is biased downward at 52%! The key long liquidation pain point is at 89.153 (only -0.88% from the current price), and it has persisted as a core pain point over the last 7 cycles, accumulating about $4.96 million in pending long liquidation liquidity. In the crypto market, such close and dense liquidity is a perfect "downward injection" magnet for market makers. 💡 Trading strategy and response: Blindly buying the dip at this position is very likely to get liquidated by liquidity injections. The real bottom: * Intense shakeout: price pierces the 89.15 pain point but quickly recovers, forming a long lower shadow with huge volume (a false breakout liquidation). * Structural change: right-side volume recovery and holding above the previous high resistance at 92-93 $SOL In-depth Review: The Fateful Divergence Between Ethereum DAO and CORE Both faced major security crises and both activated hard forks as remedies. Ethereum rose from the ashes to become legendary, while CORE continued to weaken. Their destinies were long determined by their underlying foundations. In the 2016 Ethereum DAO incident, the vulnerability existed only in the upper-layer DApp contract; the underlying public chain architecture remained completely intact. Moreover, the stolen funds were locked with a buffer period, giving the community ample time to debate, vote, and hard fork to roll back the assets. This crisis did not break Ethereum; instead, it completed a network-wide consensus filtering, unified governance standards, improved the industry security system, and thoroughly established its leading position in smart contracts. It was an upgrade achieved through crisis. In contrast, CORE’s problem struck directly at the L1 underlying reward mechanism, a native protocol defect. Coupled with extremely weak decentralization, concentrated nodes, and a thin community foundation, multiple hard forks were merely reactive firefighting. Adding to this were long-term inflationary selling pressure, high-level ghost tokens, poor on-chain yields, competition siphoning off BTCFi sector users, and continuously shrinking liquidity. Each fix exposed the underlying instability. The real difference lies not in the crisis itself but in consensus and fundamentals. Projects with strong consensus can be reborn through crisis, while those with weak foundations face irreversible fate from a single fatal vulnerability.🔥$ONE 24-hour surge of 54.52%, trading volume close to $29.63 million, just 4.8% away from the previous high. The husband chain suddenly gains momentum—is this the king's return or the last wave of a bull trap? Several key signals to watch: 📈 Strong price rally 📉 Funding rate is negative (-0.083%/4h) 💰 Open interest around $1.88 million Price is rising while funding rate is negative, indicating that short pressure in the futures market still exists. If buying continues, a short squeeze scenario cannot be ruled out. But the closer it gets to the previous high, the more cautious you should be about profit-taking. Only a breakout above the previous high and holding it justifies further gains! If volume expands but price stalls, beware of a pullback after the spike! The biggest fear in crypto is not missing out, but mistaking the peak for a starting point. 😂 Do you think $ONE can keep rallying? 🚀 Bullish or 🩸 Bearish? $ONE $ACH — Connecting traditional payment systems with digital assets remains a meaningful infrastructure challenge. Alchemy Pay operates in the crypto payment access space, where practical usability matters. Its progress is worth evaluating through payment integrations, supported markets, transaction experience, and the real demand for fiat-to-crypto access.$ZEC USDT TRADE IDEA Entry: Wait for confirmation TP1: $1,260 TP2: $1,245 SL: $1,290 Concept: Strong selling pressure is visible. Watch for a confirmed breakdown and volume before considering a short position. #ZEC #Zcash #OKX#BerkshireQ3CashOutlook