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All positions are showing unrealized losses! Top whale is holding through triple short positions
Three short positions fully open, all currently at a loss, relying on funding fees to recover.
📊 Position overview:
$BTC short 5x: 2,613 coins, opened at 76,343, unrealized loss -10.59 million, funding fees +3.17 million, margin 42.02 million, liquidation price 137,300
$ETH short 5x: 106,400 coins, opened at 2,322, unrealized loss -1.55 million, funding fees +4.3 million, margin 49.74 million, liquidation price 3,723
$SOL short 7x: 719,900 coins, opened at 94.3, unrealized loss -4.77 million, funding fees +3.83 million, margin 10.38 million, liquidation price 302
Total unrealized loss across three positions is about 17 million, with funding fees collected totaling over 11 million to hedge. BTC is losing the most but has the thickest margin, liquidation prices are far away, so short-term it won't die. This guy is playing a long game with thick margin + funding fees, betting on the direction to come back. Holding such large positions at 5-7x leverage, ordinary people should not imitate.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Today let's talk about two earnings reports worth paying attention to: HOOD and SK Hynix.
First, HOOD. The market expects Q3 revenue to be about $1.42 billion, a year-over-year increase of about 12%, with earnings per share expected around $0.56.
Robinhood is no longer just a crypto trading platform; stocks, options, and prediction markets are also contributing to growth. However, crypto trading revenue previously declined 38% year-over-year, and prediction market trading volume also saw a sequential drop, so this time the focus needs to be on whether other businesses can sustain growth.
My view is that the earnings could slightly beat expectations, but it's harder to predict a stock price rise after the report. After all, the market's pre-trading expectations will also affect the final performance.
Next, SK Hynix, where AI storage remains the core logic. The market expects Q3 revenue to exceed 98 trillion KRW. Demand for HBM from AI servers, along with rising storage prices, are favorable for performance growth.
But there's also an issue: when everyone knows AI storage is booming, what really determines the stock price is not just performance growth, but whether the actual data can exceed market expectations and the company's judgment on future demand.
Overall, I personally lean toward both companies having a chance to beat expectations, but I will be more cautious about stock price movements after the earnings.
This is just my personal earnings analysis and does not constitute investment advice; ultimately, it depends on the actual data and market reaction.
This should count as participation, right 明天早上海力士发 Q3 我先说结论：大概率会超预期 但大概率是温和地超，不是炸裂地超。 共识在这儿：营收98万亿韩元左右，营业利润77万亿，利润率逼近78%。环比涨27%，同比翻5倍多。连续第六个季度创纪录。 为什么我觉得会beat DRAM合约价Q3涨了13%到21%，NAND涨10%到17%。我看这个价格数据，毛利不会差。 HBM4已经开始给英伟达Vera Rubin放量了 海力士HBM全球份额大概50%，我之前写过，这个位置短期没人能替 长期协议锁了明年大部分产能。 我看完美光的财报和指引，它说短缺会持续到2027到2028年。这等于帮海力士把供需逻辑先验证了一遍。 部分券商预测已经到了80万亿，高于共识。我觉得如果汇率冲击比预期弱，利润率逼近 80% 是有可能的。 但我也不是没有担心的。 韩元升值已经把共识砍了5%到6%。汇率还在拖。 券商分歧大，营业利润从70 万亿到80万亿都有。我比较在意的是HBM4放量节奏，不及预期的话直接压数字。 还有一个事。股价近月回撤了大概30% 我觉得这不是在怀疑当期数字，是在担心 AI 需求能不能持续。 所以问题不只是会不会超，还有超了之后股价SK Hynix is going to release its Q3 earnings report tomorrow, and I personally am optimistic about the results exceeding expectations.
There are several main reasons:
① DRAM and NAND prices continue to rise, which should have a significant positive impact on revenue and profits.
② AI computing power demand remains strong, and HBM high-bandwidth memory is still in short supply; Hynix is one of the main beneficiaries.
③ Some institutions' profit forecasts have already surpassed the market consensus, indicating there is room for the results to beat expectations further.
Of course, there is still some uncertainty regarding the shipment progress of HBM4.
Overall, I lean towards a slight beat of expectations in the Q3 earnings report, with a subjective probability of 75%–80% from YES.
Let's see tomorrow if this judgment holds true. 😂$BTC 79.6%, the main coin is still in the hands of individuals.
The main coin is the only major asset still controlled by individuals.
River's chart breaks it down clearly. Among the tradable main coins, individuals hold 79.6%, while funds and ETFs combined only have 8.5%. Individuals hold more than 9 times what institutions do.
Bonds, stocks, and gold have been mostly held by institutions for hundreds of years. The main coin is different; after more than a decade, the majority is still in individual hands.
Why can ETF flows of just one or two hundred million dollars cause such a stir? Because the 8.5% held by institutions is active money moving in and out of the market daily, while the 79.6% held by individuals mostly stays put. The real factor determining daily prices is the flow of active money, not the size of the total holdings.
River says this will change in the future. Institutional share will only rise, slowly following the path of gold.
But that is a slow variable. Today's structure has not changed yet.
The main coin is the only major asset still controlled by individuals. #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ $BTC US stock market opened for one hour, BTC made a V-shape move, almost returning to the starting point.
In the first 5 minutes after the 21:30 open, trading volume was 4 times the usual, first surging to 80,330, then hammered back to 79,890 half an hour later; at 22:25 it pulled back up to 80,360 in one go. That pullback was the largest 5-minute trading volume in the US spot market since the open, about 8 times the usual.
At the same time, the Nasdaq rose about 0.7%, while the coin price basically stayed flat for the hour. US stock buying came in but didn’t bring the coin along. The dip below 79,900 looks like US spot market buyers picking up at a low.
Today’s upper boundary at 80,500 was tested once but not broken. Without breaking above, it’s still moving back and forth within the range, with the lower boundary around 79,500. What the heck? $BTC ETF funds are actually zero! What big move are these Wall Street old foxes hiding?
Last night when Bitcoin dropped below 80,000, I guess many friends were scared and sold at a loss, but I wasn’t panicking this morning. Instead, I watched the ETF fund flows all night and found something very interesting: those Wall Street old foxes collectively played a disappearing act.
First, about Bitcoin, yesterday the ETF fund inflows and outflows were all zero! You read that right, zero. A few days ago, BlackRock and Fidelity were still actively selling, with 16.94 million running out on the 23rd, but once it hit the critical 80,000 level, they just held their fire. What does this mean? It means institutions are also waiting and watching, neither bulls nor bears dare to shoot first, all waiting for direction.
Now look at $ETH, the only one with fund inflows! While everyone else was hesitant, Fidelity quietly sneaked in and bought 69.14 million worth, forcibly turning the total market into a net inflow. They were still selling a couple of days ago, but now at the 2300 level, institutions clearly think the price drop has become cost-effective and have started building positions on the left side. This might be the most positive signal in today’s market.Positive correlation is a bit off, everyone is running faster than Cao Cao
The crypto market and US stocks show a clear divergence of "pre-market rush, immediate realization at open": the three major US stock indices opened higher and stronger, while BTC, ETH, and SOL did not continue to follow upward at the moment US stocks opened, but instead gave back the pre-market rebound gains accordingly.
Boosted by the US stock futures turning positive and Brent crude oil falling below $110, the crypto market reacted early. $BTC quickly rose from $79,744 to $80,230, $SOL pulled back from $99 to $100, a typical short-term rebound driven by improving macro sentiment.
US stocks remain in a high-level consolidation, while BTC, $ETH, and SOL continue to decline and test lows, giving back all the pre-market gains, forming a small intraday "door-drawing" pattern.
The Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting officially starts today, with the rate decision announced tomorrow, followed by Microsoft and Google earnings after the market on Wednesday, and Amazon earnings on Thursday. Before these major events, high-leverage funds in the crypto market tend to reduce positions and lock in profits at the best liquidity time when US stocks open, rather than chasing highs.
Coincidentally, the three major coins are all stuck at extremely sensitive round/critical levels—BTC at $80,000, ETH at $2,300, SOL at $100. If the Nasdaq cannot further extend gains during the US stock midday session, caution is needed for potential "pin bar" liquidations below these key round numbers targeting long stop-loss orders in crypto.Community leaders are calling on companies to fund core development, which is more sustainable than just pumping the price
Today I came across a seemingly inconspicuous but increasingly important piece of news. Mishaboar, a respected figure in the Dogecoin community, posted a call to those companies profiting from Dogecoin to start funding the network's open-source development. He specifically named: maintenance of Dogecoin Core, code review, and research on technical proposals—these tasks need people and financial support.
People used to say Dogecoin is "community-driven," but driving it can't rely on slogans alone. The core code needs maintenance, security vulnerabilities need fixing, and new proposals require research—all of which need real resources. Mishaboar’s message came right after the establishment of Dogecoin Labs, where several product and development teams have come together, and the community is seriously considering "who will support the foundation."
The price today is 0.077, still grinding within a descending channel on the daily chart, with a 24-hour low of 0.07552. But compared to the candlestick chart, I care more about this kind of discussion. Something that has lasted thirteen years doesn’t rely on pumping every time; it relies on people willing to handle the least glamorous but most critical tasks when no one is watching. $DOGE, I’m holding on, waiting for them to lay a deeper foundation.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ SK Hynix's Korean stock has recently been fluctuating at a high level, with the core driving force coming from AI computing power boosting HBM demand. HBM4 is gradually ramping up, driving up the average price of DRAM, combined with a large buyback plan, providing ample profit elasticity. The market is optimistic about the continuation of the storage upcycle, and institutions generally give a somewhat optimistic target price. The risk lies in the possibility that if AI capital expenditure slows down or competitors expand production beyond expectations, storage prices may come under pressure, suppressing the stock price. In the short term, focus on this Q3 earnings report and subsequent performance guidance, as volatility is high, making it suitable to track the fulfillment of HBM orders. $BTC is fluctuating around the 80,000 mark, and there are already many voices of reversal in the market, but the current conditions are actually not sufficient. This week will be packed with news, and the bullish and bearish variables are significant.
Several key events this week are worth closely watching: Hynix's earnings report will be released on Wednesday, followed by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with the market generally expecting rates to remain unchanged; on Friday, SanDisk's earnings report will come out. If AI-related earnings provide optimistic forecasts, it could boost the tech sector, and the crypto market is also expected to benefit accordingly.
However, the hidden risks in the market cannot be ignored: funding rates remain high, long positions are crowded, and floating chips have not been fully cleared. As long as this part of the longs has not been cleaned out, even if a rebound occurs, the upward space will be suppressed. This is the core contradiction in the current market.
To confirm a trend reversal, a clear signal is needed: a pullback near 79,200, even a brief volume-driven break below, followed by a volume-driven recovery to complete the bottoming structure. Only when this structure appears does the foundation for strength exist. Before that, the market will most likely continue to grind at low levels, so do not prematurely take heavy positions to bet on a reversal. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ For $BTC to open up rebound space, first see if the upper boundary in the past 24 hours can truly become support. I will treat around $80,702 as the next observation line and will not directly consider the back-and-forth trading above $80,000 as a breakout.
Kraken's public quote is about $80,186, with the 24-hour low at $79,379, still within this range. Johnny's additional reminder leans more towards trading discipline: frequent trades during consolidation can easily erode principal, so wait for the market to reach planned positions when necessary. This is not a clear bullish or bearish signal, and I will not add a direction on his behalf.
My judgment criteria are: after breaking above the upper boundary, if the close holds above it and then the pullback does not break it, only then will the range observation be upgraded to an upward recovery; if it spikes up but then falls back below the upper boundary and fails to close back above, the breakout assumption fails. If the downside cannot even hold $80,000, then withdraw the expectation of strengthening first, rather than continuously lowering your confirmation standards.
Overall, at this stage, the most important distinction is between rebounds within the range and support outside the range. Without enough publicly verifiable project catalysts, I do not consider scattered position updates as opportunities, nor do I compensate for waiting by increasing frequency. Near the upper boundary, do you prefer to look at the closing position left or the volume-price coordination during the pullback? This is just a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.So boring, the market is too lousy. A graduate student in economics simply posts a bit to talk about the relationship between stocks, gold, banks, bond markets, and exchange rates, and can add a crypto circle ($BTC )
Why is everyone so focused on the upcoming interest rate meeting? In fact, interest rates basically drive the fluctuations of the entire market above. Take rate hikes as an example, in fact, the bond market and interest rates are basically linked; generally, when interest rates rise, bond yields will be adjusted upward accordingly.
The reason is that if yield and interest rates become unanchored, there will often be a lot of arbitrage behavior, borrowing money from banks to buy bonds, which would worsen the economy. This is not the bank's original intention, although sometimes the bond market also forces the central bank to regulate interest rates.
Then rate hikes will also cause global capital inflows. Take the United States as an example: when the Federal Reserve raises rates, US assets become attractive, and global currencies will be settled into dollars in the forex market to be stored in the US to earn interest, etc., which forces the dollar exchange rate to rise and strengthens the dollar's value.
Rate hikes also drain liquidity from the US domestic stock market and gold liquidity, including $BTC. People say stocks and bonds are a seesaw, and this is the reason: rate hikes make it difficult for US domestic companies to finance, the market holds a pessimistic view of corporate expected profits, and thus the domestic stock market declines.
Additionally, gold and $BTC are global markets; capital settles into dollars to buy lower-risk bonds or deposits at the Federal Reserve, further draining liquidity from these two markets.
Basically, the above is a relatively shallow understanding. Due to word limits, I'll stop here for now.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Storage still has stories to tell #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？
Google's Q3 2026 earnings report is very likely to deliver revenue and cloud business results that are stronger than expected, but can it truly be considered "above expectations"?
Revenue is about $111.6 billion, up 27.6% year-over-year, possibly exceeding expectations
EPS is about $2.94, up 2.4% year-over-year, facing considerable pressure
Google Cloud is about $29.16 billion, up around 92% year-over-year, the biggest highlight
Search ads about $65 billion, up about 15% year-over-year
Moderate growth
YouTube ads about $11.3 billion, up about 10% year-over-year
Stable but limited elasticity
Profit side faces pressure: third-party computing power leasing, depreciation, data center operating costs, and AI hiring will all suppress profit margins.
Free cash flow is a hidden risk: Q2 free cash flow has already turned negative, and the market will be very sensitive.
Capital expenditure guidance may remain high: full-year 2026 capital expenditure guidance is already between $195 billion and $205 billion, with some institutions expecting it to continue rising in 2027.
Cloud growth base is very high: Q2 cloud growth was 82%, Q3 market expectations are already above 90%, the higher the expectations, the harder it is to create surprises.
Probability of EPS exceeding expectations: medium to low, with significant profit margin pressure
I think the possibility of a No is high
@OKX中文 @OKX星球 $H100 ok this is human lighter trading volume less than 20k dollars a day weight accounts for 45% own 5% really abstractPrediction markets show a 93.9% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in October. The whale account elmcap2 has heavily bet $2.5 million on no change, with a historical win rate exceeding 90%. Influenced by officials' statements of "willing to wait for data" and pressure from the bond market, market consensus has shifted to a pause in October, with the focus of speculation completely moving to whether rate hikes will resume in December. $BTC $ETH $SOL #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 "161 to 148: SpaceX's Crypto Mirror Reflects More Than the Stock Itself"
On June 12, SpaceX debuted on Nasdaq priced at $135, closing the first day at 161, up 19%. Four months later, its crypto mirrors—Backpack’s tokenized SPCX, Robinhood’s stock tokens, and various perpetual stock contracts—are all neatly anchored around 148.
First, let's look at a structural oddity. CoinCryptoRank shows: SPCX-related perpetual contracts have a 24-hour trading volume of about $1.63 billion, while spot tokens only about $40 million. The leverage side is forty times the ownership side. In crypto markets, this is a typical "channel-driven" phenomenon: the vast majority of exposure is not about wanting the stock itself, but a 24/7 leveraged window to express views on SpaceX. Backpack’s 1:1 redeemable real share version has a market cap just over $10 million, with only $22 million in volume—true "ownership" is extremely quiet.
The quietness is justified. SpaceX posted a net loss of $4.28 billion in Q1 2026, a full-year loss of $4.94 billion in 2025, and a cumulative loss of about $41.3 billion since inception. The only profitable segment, Starlink, contributed $11.39 billion in revenue, but both launches and xAI are burning cash. New Street Research sets a $165 target price, with the core bet precisely on the $575 billion valuation option of xAI—in other words, analysts price the "future company," not the "current company."
On the supply side, only about 5% of IPO shares are freely tradable, and Musk’s voting rights still exceed 50%. Scarce chips support the price but also mean that once lock-up expires or index inclusion-driven buying fades, the market depth will be very thin. From the first day’s 161 to today’s 148, about -8%, the drop isn’t large, but every rebound is weak.
My judgment: Nasdaq’s SPCX is a scarcity narrative, crypto’s SPCX is a leverage narrative. Both anchor to the same price but are driven completely differently—one side fears not being able to buy, the other fears not being able to exit quickly. When US stocks are closed and crypto perpetuals trade as usual, the "SPCX price" you see is actually just leverage.
Key levels: Crypto mirrors look at 144.9 (today’s low); holding this means there’s still a chance above 150; Nasdaq side looks at 161 first-day close price—failure to return means a typical "IPO sentiment peak."
Discussion: The same stock, four prices (Nasdaq, Backpack, Robinhood, various perpetuals)—which one is the "real" SPCX?
My answer: All four are, but none are. They share one anchor (the real stock price) but each carries different traders, leverage, and time perspectives. The 1.4% cross-exchange price difference shows arbitrage opportunities never disappeared and also that this market is still too thin and too new.
Poll: Who do you think are the main buyers of SPCX crypto mirrors—A. Non-US retail investors who can’t buy US stocks; B. 24/7 leveraged traders; C. Option players betting on xAI spin-off; D. Arbitrage bots.
I choose B. The 40x perpetual volume relative to spot says it all: what they want is never SpaceX itself, but a market that never closes.
Not investment advice, risk on you. #SPCX #TokenizedStocks$BTC #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
BTC has been consolidating around the 79,600 level for four days. The $80,000 mark has been repeatedly pierced and reclaimed, showing a tense trend that hides the risk of a breakout.
Technical boundaries are clear: 80,000 is the short-term strength/weakness dividing line. The 81,000-82,000 range above acts as a resistance zone in the downtrend; only a firm break above 83,000 confirms a rebound. On the downside, if 80,000 is decisively broken, there is almost no strong support until the 75,000 range, and the decline rate will accelerate significantly.
Under the clear macro outlook lies hidden risk: The probability of maintaining rates in October exceeds 90%, but the market is pricing in a "hawkish pause"—the chance of a 25 basis point hike in December has surged above 70%. The shadow of liquidity tightening is only delayed, not eliminated. Before the FOMC decision, both bulls and bears are reluctant to expend ammunition early; the real directional choice will come after the announcement.
Cryptocurrency differentiation has already begun: BTC has the most stable base, with institutional cost support in the 79,000-80,000 range, showing the strongest resilience. ETH has broken below the 2,350 trendline, with ETF funds continuously flowing out; 2,300 is the short-term critical support line. SOL is the weakest of the three, with a clear head and shoulders pattern; once the 100 neckline is breached, the downside target is 80, with volatility risk far exceeding the other two.
No rate hike is not a catalyst for a rise; the wording of the statement is the core pricing variable. A dovish tilt would see BTC’s rebound first target 83,000; a hawkish tilt would make holding 80,000 difficult, and risk assets would collectively come under pressure. The current position has very low risk/reward; it is safer to wait for the decision before making moves.#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
I personally see Hynix's upcoming earnings report as exceeding expectations.
Mainly because storage chip prices are still rising in Q3, with DRAM expected to increase by 21% quarter-on-quarter and NAND by 17%. Price increases will directly impact revenue and profit, and coupled with AI servers' demand for HBM, Hynix's profitability this quarter still has room to improve.
The current market expectation for operating profit is about 76.96 trillion KRW, but I believe there is a chance to surpass 80 trillion. In short, the market already anticipates performance growth, but I think the profit increment from storage price hikes might be higher than the market estimates.$BTC 24h volatility is only 1.7%, fluctuating between 79,468.3 and 80,819.4, with a trading volume of 8.1 billion USD, which is not considered high. The gold market has entered a consolidation phase similar to this, both sides are waiting for new macro drivers. Derivatives data also reflect this. Funding rate dropped from 0.0100% to 0.0087%, indicating bulls are reluctant to pay more. DVOL is 37.6, and the options market is not pricing in large volatility. Options open interest put/call ratio is 0.80, leaning towards calls, but the trading put/call ratio is 0.91, showing more short-term protection buying. Liquidations are roughly balanced, with shorts at 6.82 million USD and longs at 5.76 million USD. The most likely scenario is still a range-bound market, with a bias to test the lower boundary first. Bullish reversal condition: hold above 80,819.4 and funding rate returns above 0.0100%. Bearish reversal condition: if it breaks below 79,468.3 and contract open interest of 7.85 billion USD increases, indicating new short positions are pushing down.$BTC This time, we really can't just focus on the price!
On October 22, the US spot BTC ETF had a net outflow of $635.6 million in a single day; on October 23, it continued to outflow $137.9 million, totaling $773.5 million over two days!
What does this mean?
The capital inflow that was hard-earned the previous week was quickly smashed back out. What's worse, the cost basis for ETFs and corporate treasuries is concentrated around $80,000–$81,500. If this range is breached, market sentiment could deteriorate further.
Look at another set of data: long-term holders have reduced their BTC holdings by 50,017 coins, about 13 times the ETF purchase volume of 3,700 coins.
On one side, long-term holders keep selling; on the other, ETF buying can't absorb this volume at all.
Although Strategy holds 848,517 $BTC, it has paused additional purchases after two consecutive weeks of buying.
If the cost range near $80,000 can't hold, the real pain might still be ahead.
In a bull market, everyone is a believer; only when the market falls do you know who can really hold on.
Do you think $80,000 is BTC's iron bottom, or the starting point of the next downturn? #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 "A 16.54% buffer against the daily fluctuations of APR — this is the most dangerous aspect of this position."
$APR 20x short, 0.0431→0.03598, +330.39%. Conversely: it only needs to rebound 16.54% for that 330% gain to vanish completely.
What does 16.54% mean for APR? A normal upward spike, or even a large order pulling the price up on the order book. In other words, this position doesn’t require any negative news to fade, no trend reversal, nor anyone deliberately going long — a purely technical rebound is enough to wipe it out.
20x leverage magnifies 16.54% into 330%, but it also magnifies 16.54% into zero. It offers you the fastest profits, but also the shortest survival time.
The market itself is stable: price is running low. But the key resistance above is not far away.
So I never decide to close based on "how much profit" I’ve made, only on how far it is from the cost line. 16.54% — not exactly far, but not close either.
Only one move: push to break even, at worst lock in zero, and don’t increase exposure anymore. $BTC $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $SKHYNIX surged today along with the South Korean stock market rally. Can the HBM4 expectation sustain the hype before the earnings report? AP reports that the South Korean KOSPI index rose over 3% intraday, with SK Hynix climbing about 7% at one point. AI demand remains the main theme in semiconductors. The real test lies in HBM supply, yield, and profit margins, not just the strong stock price. If the earnings report confirms order and profit quality, the trend will be more stable; if capacity expansion outpaces customer demand, the risk of pullback increases. Sha Seng's Review: Tonight's market action is just like Tang Seng chanting the tightening spell—Monkey King (BTC) jumping up and down, Bajie (retail investors) rolling on the ground, only Tathagata (big clients) sitting steadily on the lotus throne.
From 20:30 to 22:15, BTC was rubbing back and forth within the "Five Elements Mountain crack" between 79,500 and 81,200, while ETH was converging in a triangle between 2,295 and 2,355, unable to go up or down. Old Sha honestly watched the market for two hours, almost staring through the screen, and the conclusion is one word: grinding. $ETH
Data doesn't lie. Big clients (whales) transferring BTC 30-day average dropped from 5.9 billion in August to 3.8 billion USD, they are in no rush to sell. On the other hand, Bajie, retail deposits doubled in 30 days to 10.75 billion USD, 2.8 times that of the whales, rushing faster than anyone else. The result? BTC retail long-short ratio crashed to 0.4861, causing massive liquidations, while big clients' long-short ratio is 0.77, holding longs and watching, with bears dominating. ETH long-short ratio is still 2.46, indicating bullish exposure hasn't been cleared, meaning Bajie are still holding on hard. $BTC
Conclusion: Tathagata stays still, Bajie don't send off. Big clients are waiting for the tailwinds of Wednesday's Fed meeting and Friday's options expiry, the more impatient retail investors are to "bottom fish," the more likely they will be squeezed by the tightening spell and howl in pain. I, Sha Seng, will continue to carry the load and watch the show, meeting adjourned. #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ There are three legs, but only one is valuable; don't be fooled by +32%
01 Trading commissions: Options are the real money printer. What about crypto? In a bull market, it's like SaaS; in a bear market, it's like a brokerage.
02 Net interest: This one is the most comfortable but also the most fragile. When interest rates drop, it shrinks first.
03 Subscriptions and new business: The only leg that can tell a story. Unfortunately, it still can't support the valuation.
Deposits of 22 billion ≠ revenue.
The money is just sitting there, not a single cent earned. $HOOD
#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ The strange scene of $BTC: whales are shorting, but all shorts are losing money.
Whale accounts on Hyperliquid have collectively shifted to net short positions for the first time since March.
Short positions are about $1.33 billion, exceeding longs by $377 million.
But with the price around 80,000, these shorts are at unrealized losses. Some positions were established at 76,000 and are now stuck halfway up.
If BTC reaches 85,000, about $3.3 billion in shorts will be forcibly liquidated.
Whales are shorting, but the shorting itself is becoming fuel.
Even stranger are the retail investors. Deposits from retail on Binance have surged to $10.75 billion, a six-month high, 2.8 times that of whales.
Meanwhile, the scale of BTC transferred by whales to exchanges has dropped from 5.9 billion at the end of August to 3.8 billion.
Retail investors are moving assets to exchanges preparing to sell, while whales are holding back and not selling. Two groups at the same table are making completely opposite moves.
So the current picture is: retail investors are cutting losses, whales are shorting but at unrealized losses, there is only one buyer for the ETF, and the liquidation price for shorts is hanging overhead. Whoever moves first becomes the fuel. Ethereum lost the $2,350 trendline that had held for months, currently priced at $2,305, but the focus shouldn't be on the drop itself, rather on the abnormal movement in the funding rate.
In the past 24 hours, the funding rate plummeted 56% to 0.004, with leveraged longs retreating en masse; whales are simultaneously shorting, ETFs are continuously bleeding, and the top five bid-ask ratio is only 0.42, with the sell wall more than twice as thick as the buy wall.
The $2,300–$2,350 range has shifted from support to a psychological battleground of tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
But beneath the drop lies something overshadowed: the total staked amount across the network has hit a historic record of about 43.7–43.8 million ETH, accounting for 35–36% of circulating supply; exchange ETH reserves have simultaneously dropped to a one-week low, indicating that available supply is contracting, not expanding. ETFs are selling, whales are shorting, yet the chips are being locked up.
Tonight through early morning's FOMC meeting is a watershed moment: a 90% probability of no rate change, but institutions generally characterize it as a “hawkish pause” with no rate hike, yet no easing either, with December rate hike odds still around 80%. If $2,300 holds, the logic of supply contraction remains; but if $2,350 cannot be reclaimed, the short structure won't be truly dismantled.
Tonight's press conference is more dangerous than the dot plot.The Fed's "open card" hides a hidden arrow: Bitcoin's battle to defend $80,000
No rate hike in October is already an open card. CME data shows a 90.6% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged. But don't relax just yet—the probability of a 25 basis point hike in December has surged to 67.5%–73.9%, and all 100 economists surveyed by Reuters expect action before year-end.
The real killer move is hidden in the wording. The market is pricing not an "end to tightening," but a "hawkish pause": trading time for space while reserving ammunition for December. For Bitcoin, this means the shadow of liquidity tightening is only postponed, not eliminated.
Bitcoin has repeatedly bled at the $80,000 mark. If the statement leans hawkish, the probability of oscillation between $78,000 and $83,000 will sharply increase. Although there are over $80 million in buy orders clustered between $78,000 and $79,000, a significant portion comes from futures orders; if spot demand is absent, the next line of defense will retreat to $75,000.
No rate hike will not be a catalyst for a rise; hawkish wording is the real pricing variable. This month's decision determines whether $80,000 can hold, not whether it can rise.
#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ $BTC $ETH $SOL $XRP
The Robinhood and Ripple news is trending, and some in the group are already calling XRP stable. Let me clarify first: the main player in the partnership is the stablecoin RLUSD—launching on Robinhood Chain and Bitstamp. Robinhood's own cash management is also entrusted to Ripple, which additionally provides financing for about twenty assets. XRP itself doesn't play much of a role in this.
The price has risen first as a courtesy: XRP current price is 1.3155, up 1.9% in 24 hours, high 1.322 low 1.2852, Binance at 1.3148 up 1.74%, both sides align. Funding fee is 0.01% at the first tier, contract positions at $87.4 million, leverage not heavy, this wave looks more like a sentiment trade.
My view: the real value lies in the stablecoin paving the way into brokerages; if the settlement volume really takes off, the dividends will fall to RLUSD. I won't guess the price movement; anyway, this news has a much shallower connection to XRP than what's written in the repost.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 AI computing power has been hyped for so long, just throwing money at it without results won't work. SanDisk's ($SNDK) earnings report after the market close on October 29 is a perfect touchstone.
Last quarter's revenue was nearly 9 billion, with the data center business doubling. This quarter's guidance is even higher at 10.3-10.8 billion, so expectations are already very full. Therefore, we can't just look at the surface data; we need to focus on these three critical issues:
1. Can NAND prices continue to rise?
Last quarter's revenue surge was two-thirds supported by price increases. Once this wave of price hikes slows down, profit growth will likely reveal its true state.
2. Can AI data center orders really be monetized?
Although 8 major clients have been signed, covering half of next year's shipments, paper orders don't equal real cash. We still need to see if actual delivery and profits hold up.
3. Good performance, will the stock price definitely rise?
The US stock market loves to buy expectations and sell facts. Even if earnings beat expectations, if next quarter's guidance isn't explosive or investors feel the good news is priced in, the stock can still spike and then fall unexpectedly.
My approach:
Never blindly chase highs before the earnings report. Focus on revenue, gross margin, and next year's guidance. If earnings blow out and guidance is raised, wait for a breakout above key resistance and a stable hold before following. If the data looks good but the stock price breaks down, don't catch a falling knife—beware of being cut by the realization of good news.
The long-term logic for AI storage definitely exists, but how far the stock price can go depends on whether earnings can support these sky-high expectations.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Are U.S. retail investors going crazy? From October 12 to 16, leveraged ETFs attracted about $9.5 billion in one week, setting a new record for Goldman Sachs, nearly double the previous record!
The cumulative fund flow of the top 10 U.S. leveraged ETFs recovered from about -$18 billion to about -$8 billion, while market value shrank from about $120 billion to about $100 billion. The more it falls, the more they buy — it's real.
Funds mainly rushed into the triple-leveraged semiconductor SOXL, which saw inflows of about $9.3 billion in just two weeks.
What about the opposing side? Hedge funds reduced their tech stock holdings at the fastest pace tracked by Goldman Sachs since 2016 during the same period. Retail investors are bottom-fishing while institutions are retreating.
It looks like retail investors are taking over from the funds. Of course, that was true earlier. The chip sector just experienced its worst week in over a year, and SOXL has dropped nearly half from its high on October 6.
So the retail investors who rushed in first did take a hit, but now with a significant pullback, the cost-performance ratio is better, and the same goes for Bitcoin.
Xiaoqin thinks bottom-fishing is fine, but don’t heavily bet hoping for a big win; the risk is still high. Take it slow, hold a position you can sleep well with, that’s the long-term way. What do you think? $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Seeing it is like picking up money 💰 Consensus center is at 0.55—0.5560, 0.57 is beyond the upper edge; Q2's 0.62 includes a one-time non-recurring gain of $0.14, Q3 has no comparable project to boost; crypto revenue plunged 55.7% year-over-year, NIR dropped 5.6% year-over-year, SBC is rising; trading volume exceeding consensus does not equal GAAP EPS crossing the line, 0.55—0.56 is a completely reasonable landing point, and under the rules, that means No. #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ $BTW is gearing up for a plunge, with 1.5 billion in circulation and the whales holding at least two-thirds. Market cap over 10 billion. Those going long, be careful..Macro Background: FOMC's "Hawkish Pause," the Real Game is in December
The October hold has been fully priced in, but this is not the end of the story
The market prices about a 91% probability that the rate will remain unchanged at 3.75%–4.00% in October, with only about a 9% chance of a rate hike. The "hold" itself will not create volatility. The real variable is what Waller says at the post-meeting press conference. The market is trading not on "tightening ending," but on a "hawkish pause"—pausing once now while keeping the option to tighten further in December. If Waller clearly paves the way for a December rate hike, risk assets will face repricing; if his wording is neutral or dovish, a short-term relief rally may occur.
AI IPO is siphoning liquidity, an underestimated variable
Anthropic publicly filed an IPO registration statement, boosting AI investment sentiment but also meaning risk appetite funds are flowing from crypto to the AI primary market. During the FOMC and earnings-heavy period, BTC faces not only interest rate pressure but also competitive pressure from "funds being withdrawn."
Tech earnings are a "two-way bearish" variable: Microsoft and Alphabet (after market close Wednesday), Amazon and Intel (Thursday) will release earnings reports. Strong AI capital expenditure → funds flow from BTC to tech stocks; AI return concerns → broad risk asset sell-off. BTC has no clear beneficiary scenario. $BTC $ETH $DOOD #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ About $330 million in OTC allocations, combined with the subsequent queued unlocking schedule, make the mid-term supply pressure of $HYPE an unavoidable topic.
First, let's clarify a misconception: OTC allocations do not mean an immediate dump. Chips that go through OTC usually come with lock-up periods and discount arrangements. The buyers are mostly institutions or whales who acquire tokens to hold or make markets, not to place sell orders the next day. This portion of supply will not flood the public market immediately. But "not immediately" does not mean "never."
In the mid-term, these chips will eventually seek an exit. Coupled with the established unlocking timetable, the market needs real demand to absorb them—demand can come from buybacks, new incoming funds, or allocation needs driven by ecosystem expansion.
To judge whether the pressure is being digested well, watch for two signals: first, whether there are abnormal price and volume fluctuations around unlocking nodes; a calm passage indicates sufficient absorption. Second, observe the behavior of OTC buyers after their lock-up ends—if they choose to continue holding, the pressure transforms into chip concentration. Supply is a known factor; demand is the variable. Keep an eye on the variable.#美加稳定币监管明确收益边界 The US GENIUS Act and Canada's new stablecoin regulations simultaneously delineate clear boundaries on earnings: Stablecoin issuers themselves are prohibited from paying interest or rewards simply because users hold stablecoins, positioning stablecoins as payment tools rather than investment products. However, rewards from exchanges and third-party platforms require case-by-case verification, leaving a gray area.
✅ Core regulatory rules
1. United States (GENIUS Act)
Stablecoin issuers are prohibited from directly paying interest or any form of earnings to holders, whether in cash or token rewards. Simply "holding to earn" crosses the red line. However, distinctions exist by entity: rewards from exchanges and third-party incentives have room, with regulators assessing on a case-by-case basis whether these constitute disguised circumvention of the ban. Interest disguised under different names will still be deemed violations. Reserve assets are limited to low-risk assets, with monthly disclosure of reserve details.
2. Canada Draft
Aligned with the US approach, it also prohibits issuers from directly paying interest or rewards to holders, requires 1:1 full reserves and rapid redemption, favors a bank custody model, and top-down restricts stablecoin deposit-like behavior to prevent large capital outflows from traditional banks into the crypto sector. $BTC $ETH $AMD server chip opportunities are expanding, but the real validation lies in market share and profit margins. Growth in the AI market does not mean every manufacturer can achieve high profits; software ecosystem, delivery capability, and customer repurchase determine whether market share can be realized. Interest rates and major companies' earnings reports will affect sector valuations. If data center revenue and gross profit continuously improve, competitiveness becomes clearer; if order growth occurs but gross profit declines, I would lower the growth premium. Institutional Channel Cools Down: Why ETFs Can't Retain Funds
The attitude of institutional funds toward the Dogecoin ETF was reflected on the books this week: a net outflow of $538,000 in a single week, the largest since October. The situation of another similar product illustrates the issue even more clearly — its size has shrunk to about $726,000, and it has already reached the stage of winding down operations.
An outflow of over half a million dollars is not shocking in absolute terms, but the signal it sends is significant. ETF fund flows act as a thermometer for institutional interest; continuous outflows indicate a contraction in allocation. Meanwhile, a product being liquidated due to its small size exposes the true level of demand: the institutional funds willing to pay management fees and go through compliant channels for Dogecoin are fewer than initially expected when the product launched.
What’s interesting is the contrast. On October 25, net inflows in the spot market expanded, with short-term funds entering. On one side, the institutional channel is quiet; on the other, the spot market is lively with short-term trading. These two types of capital cast opposite votes on the same asset. This shows that the current $DOGE market momentum is driven by retail and short-term traders, while institutions remain on the sidelines. For ETFs to regain funds, what’s needed is not marketing but a sufficiently long-lasting upward reason — institutions never buy on sentiment, only on logic.I'm not very optimistic that $GOOGL's earnings report this time will exceed expectations; we even need to be cautious about the situation where good performance leads to a stock price decline.
The market already has high expectations for Google's AI business and cloud computing growth. Especially for Google Cloud, which saw an 82% year-over-year revenue increase last quarter, the market will naturally continue to watch whether it can maintain high growth this time. But with an increasingly high base, it becomes more difficult to surprise the market again.
Another issue is AI investment. Google has been continuously increasing capital expenditures on data centers, computing power, and AI infrastructure this year. The larger the investment scale, the more the market cares about when this money can be converted into actual profits. If revenue growth is good but capital expenditures continue to rise, and profits and cash flow do not bring enough surprises, the market may not buy it.
So this time, I tend to think Google's earnings report will not exceed expectations. The focus is on cloud business growth rate, search advertising performance, and management's guidance on subsequent AI investments.
After all, the market is not short of AI stories now; what it lacks is performance that can be continuously delivered. Do you think Google can exceed expectations this time?
#谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #美加稳定币监管明确收益边界 传统银行这回是真急眼了，眼看着大家的存款都在往币圈搬，直接联合监管下场开撕。美加两国最近同时甩出了稳定币的监管细则，直接给“吃利息”这件事画上了死线。 咱们先看看这细则到底说了啥。加拿大在10月24日公布了草案，美国OCC在10月21日也发了GENIUS法案的最终规则。两国核心步调出奇一致：严禁稳定币发行方直接或间接向持有者支付收益。也就是说，以后你拿着USDT或者USDC，发行商不能给你发利息了。但是，规矩留了个后门，允许交易所等第三方搞“交易奖励”。同时，加拿大那边还要求1:1储备、三个工作日内完成赎回，甚至限制了1%的手续费上限。这两套规矩大概率要到2027年才正式实施。你看盘面，USDT和USDC几乎纹丝不动，价格连0.1%的波动都没有。 小马哥的个人看法： 这就是一出活生生的“利益保卫战”。传统银行系统最怕什么？怕你把钱全换成稳定币，存在链上吃高息，导致银行的存款大量流失，这可是动了老钱的命根子。所以监管必须出手，把发行方直接付息的口子堵死，保住传统银行的资金池。 但监管也怕把加密行业的创新直接掐死，所以给第三方留了发奖励的口子Is $100 worth of SOL a rock bottom or a guillotine?
480,000 SOL suddenly transferred to exchanges, ETF funds are running, but institutions are secretly adding positions—you're cutting losses, but who is catching your blood?
Let's look at the surface first: positive news landed, but the price is playing dead.
Alpenglow upgrade will launch on mainnet on October 21, final confirmation time compressed to 150ms (measured 404ms). In the blink of an eye, the transaction is already on-chain. RWA tokenized stock holding addresses have exceeded 1.5 million, a 5x surge since August; JPMorgan is even launching tokenized money market funds on Solana. So what happened? The price dropped from 120 to 100 and is still falling within 24 hours. Positive news with no price increase is the most dangerous signal.
First: Is the transfer of 480,000 SOL to exchanges selling pressure or a smokescreen?
Recently, about 482,000 SOL (approximately $49.17 million) was transferred in large amounts, some already on exchanges.
Sounds scary? But think carefully—last week, ETFs only saw an outflow of 17.3 million; who is absorbing these 480,000 SOL?
DeFi Development Corp recently added 5,346 SOL, holding a total of 2.59 million. Institutions are buying, whales are transferring, retail investors are fleeing.
Second: The fundamentals haven't collapsed; it's your mindset that has.
Daily trading volume is near 100 million, DEX 24-hour volume is 1.8 billion—the chain is still active, not stopped.
Stablecoin market cap is 15-17 billion, RWA tokenized stock addresses at 1.5 million, a 5x increase since August.
DeFi TVL is 5.6 billion, although it has fallen to a six-week low, its capital turnover rate outperforms most public chains.
Solana is not "fast but unused," it is fast and truly used. JPMorgan is not foolish; choosing Solana for tokenized money market funds is not charity.
Third: Technically, $100 is the psychological battlefield trench.
Since early October, the price has retraced from 120-125, forming a descending channel with a series of lower highs. Currently, it is repeatedly testing the $100 level, lows touching 99, closing mostly oscillating between 100-102.
Support: 100 (psychological) → 98-98.5 (recent lows) → 93-96 (next stop)
Resistance: 102-105 (moving average cluster) → 108-110
RSI is neutral to weak, with room for oversold rebound, but a volume breakout above the descending trendline is needed to confirm strength. Volume is moderate, no panic-driven volume breakout—no one really wants to cut losses here, but no one dares to buy.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On the bullish side:
Alpenglow upgrade landing, real performance improvements
RWA + JPMorgan + tokenized stocks, institutional adoption accelerating
DeFi Development Corp continuously adding, holding 2.59 million SOL
Strong support at 98-100, oversold rebound potential
On the bearish side:
480,000 SOL transferred to exchanges, potential selling pressure
ETF continuous net outflow, 17.3 million last week
Fed decision on October 28 approaching, hawkish expectations suppressing
BTC dominance high, funds rotating from altcoins to BTC
Failed to break 105 three times, moving averages bearish
Key level 100, only $5 away from the life-or-death line at 105, and $2 from the rock bottom at 98.
At this level, bulls and bears are betting their lives.
Trading strategy
Aggressive short-term:
Long: Hold above 99-100 with volume surge and bullish candle, light position entry, stop loss below 98, target 102-105 in batches.
Short: Rebound blocked at 102-105, light position short, stop loss 105.5-106, target 98-100.
Conservative approach:
No chasing shorts below 100, no chasing longs above 100. Buy in batches at 98-100 (spot or light positions), reduce positions near 105. Wait for daily volume to hold above 105 before chasing longs, target 110+; if volume breaks below 98, wait or hedge, next target 93-96.
Single trade risk ≤ 1-2% of total capital, strict stop loss. Decrease leverage or wait around Fed decision.
SOL now is like Solana in 2023—
Back then, it dropped from $8 to near death, everyone said "this chain is dead." What happened? It surged to 200 in a year.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #Intel's Foundry Transformation Welcomes a New Variable with Terafab
#On the Eve of Intel's Q3 Earnings: A Life-or-Death Test for Foundry Transformation
After the market closes on October 29, Intel will release its Q3 results. This earnings report will directly determine the quality of the foundry transformation—whether it will stop the bleeding and reverse course or continue to face pressure. The market is holding its breath.
Q2 revenue rose 25% year-over-year, and the Q3 guidance of $15.8–$16.8 billion seems to hold the bottom line, but the core contradictions no longer lie in revenue scale. Instead, there are two critical life-or-death challenges: first, the wafer foundry business continues to burn cash, with 18A and 14A advanced process ramp-ups underway. Whether losses can be narrowed is Wall Street's key question; second, with the explosion in AI computing demand, whether the data center business can deliver growth and capture industry dividends.
External pressures are simultaneously intensifying: Broadcom and Intel's CEO have jointly warned that AI expansion constraints are shifting from chip supply to capital financing. The giants are draining market liquidity, and for capital-intensive Intel, rising financing costs are a potentially fatal blow. Coupled with domestic ChangXin's DRAM technological breakthroughs, competition in the memory sector is heating up, and falling behind in semiconductor technology means passively taking hits.
Terafab becomes the only new variable in the transformation: tied to the long-term computing power demands of Elon Musk's Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI, it aims to enter with advanced process and packaging capabilities, potentially absorbing capacity and accelerating process validation. However, the project has a long cycle and large investment, making short-term revenue contributions difficult, and it mainly produces chips for internal use, unable to quickly open the third-party foundry market—far water cannot quench near thirst.
The core focus of this earnings report is on three points: the extent of foundry loss narrowing, and the growth rate of data center revenue一个地址从1225万美元跌到只剩5357美元，这不是腰斩，是彻底归零。链上数据记录的爆仓亏损高达3537万美元，一次清算，全部抹平。真正让人后背发凉的不是亏损本身，而是爆仓之后他没有离场：$ETH 25倍杠杆多单，50枚ETH仓位，强平价紧贴市价，用最后的零钱继续站在绞肉机里。 这件事值得拆开看，因为它恰好暴露了当前市场结构里最脆弱的一环。50枚ETH按现价折算约十万美元级别的名义敞口，而账户权益只剩五千多美元，意味着价格反向波动不到2%就会再次触发清算。25倍杠杆的容错空间本就极窄，强平价贴近市价更是把缓冲垫压到几乎为零。换句话说，这不是一笔等待趋势的交易，而是一笔只能靠立刻朝有利方向暴走才能活下来的仓位。$BTC 和 $ETH 的日内波动幅度经常超过这个阈值，所以这笔多单的生存概率，从开仓那一刻起就已经被数学决定了。 更值得玩味的是行为逻辑。亏掉3537万美元后立刻反手开多，说明驱动他的不是对$ETH 基本面的判断，而是“亏这么多总要反弹一次”的补偿心理。这种心理在链上数据里反复出现：清算越惨烈的地址，往往越倾向于在极短时间内以更高杠杆重新入场。它不构成任何方向性信号，却是一个情绪20261027
9. A project making money does not mean coin holders have a positive return
1. Grayscale ranked the top ten most profitable crypto projects, among which five had negative returns for holders. So the question is: which coins truly bring returns to holders?
2. First, how to calculate returns
The money a project makes is partly distributed to coin holders, partly used for buybacks and burns, and after subtracting newly issued coins, what remains is what you actually receive.
3. HYPE 8.0%, LIT 7.9% lead the list, CRV is the worst at -5.5%
The most typical case is JUP; the project itself is profitable with a 3.5% profit return, but the holder return is negative (as one of the many holders, I can confirm this).
4. Project profitability and your profit are two different things, so next time you see a coin paying dividends, first check: how many new coins have been minted?
If too many are minted, the amount you get per coin is negligible, which can be understood as mimicking central banks like those of various countries.
10. No one is bottom-fishing, everyone is fleeing?
1. Bitcoin has been fluctuating around 80,000; previously, when US Treasury interest rate cut expectations dropped, crypto would rise. This time, with a sharp drop in US Treasury rates, crypto, US stocks, and gold all fell. Clearly, everyone is scared and money is flowing into the safest US Treasuries.
2. Those wanting to bottom-fish should wait; many are trapped above, and any slight rebound triggers panic selling, so prices can't rise. This wave is everyone running away, not an opportunity.
11. Japan is going to raise interest rates, this December, with the central bank acting together with the US
1. Those borrowing yen to speculate on crypto,On October 27, Bitcoin fell below the 80,000 mark triggering $1.3 billion in liquidations, and the market fell into a liquidity trap ahead of the Federal Reserve decision. However, there are still notable movements worth digging into amid the chaos.
BTC: Currently at $79,965 (-0.42%). It touched 80,000 twice over the weekend but failed to hold, closing at $79,841. Derivatives saw over $150 million liquidated in a single day, with longs suffering heavy losses. However, the $77,000-$80,000 range remains a major structural cost support, and open interest remains stable at 669,000 contracts, indicating institutions have not massively exited.
ETH: Currently at $2,320 (-0.15%). It broke below the $2,350 ascending trendline, with the 24-hour funding rate plunging 56%, showing a clear weakening in leveraged long demand. ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of about $1.18 billion in October, and Arthur Hayes has publicly liquidated his positions. The $2,300 level is a short-term key defense; if it continues to fail, the high open interest could amplify liquidation pressure.
SOL: Currently at $100.20 (-1.50%). A giant whale deposited 171,400 SOL (about $17.3 million) to exchanges within 3 days, maintaining selling pressure. Technically, a head and shoulders pattern has formed with the neckline right at $100; if the daily chart confirms a break below, the next target is $80.
Major coins are generally under pressure, with BTC relatively resilient, ETH facing leveraged liquidation, and SOL technically the weakest. Ahead of the Fed decision, market sentiment is cautious, with the Fear & Greed Index at only 43.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 All the good news is in, but prices are all falling: BNB lands on Nasdaq but stalls at 750, SOL whales dump and lose 100, XRP gets bank license but struggles at 1.26
Three major coins, all holding good news, yet their prices are more honest than ever.
$BNB: Nasdaq bell ringing, but 750 is a hard ceiling
Officially listed on Nasdaq, asset attributes face structural revaluation, with a counter-trend turnover near 745. However, the 7-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages all press above the price, and 750.92 is the defining resistance this week.
$SOL: Whales dumped $49 million in three days
Dropped below $100, down 17% in 30 days. Three new wallets suspected to belong to the same whale transferred 480,000 SOL within three days, about $49.17 million, with $17.3 million flowing into exchanges and the remaining $29 million still waiting. If 98.51 doesn't hold, selling pressure will accelerate.
$XRP: OCC approved banks, but price does not approve
Down 13.3% in October. Ripple National Trust Bank received final OCC approval, whale holding concentration rose to a four-year high of 68.5%. But the 1.26 to 1.278 support is being repeatedly tested, and the 50-day moving average at 1.4 remains unbroken. The good news has not translated into buying.
Summary: For BNB, watch if 750 can see volume expansion; for SOL, watch if 98.51 holds; for XRP, watch if the 1.26 to 1.278 range breaks. When narrative and price clash, trust the price
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Can the $MU storage price increase cycle be converted into sustained profitability, rather than just a scarcity premium? AI servers require high-bandwidth memory, but supply expansion and changes in customer inventory can quickly reverse the cycle. SK Hynix and Samsung rose today along with the Korean stock market, indicating that AI storage remains in focus; the opposing view is that expectations are too full. If price, shipments, and inventory all support growth simultaneously, I will remain positive; if supply catches up with demand, profit expectations need to be lowered.Yesterday, with just one sentence from Musk, CoreWeave, Nebius, and IREN—these "new cloud" companies—were slammed to the ground; today at market open, these stocks all surged again, with Nebius jumping 11% outright.
The same batch of stocks, one day apart, one sentence knocks them down, another sentence pulls them back up. Many people watch the ups and downs looking for reasons, but what I see is something else: when the price of a sector can swing seven or eight points back and forth on a single piece of news, it means there is no valuation anchor beneath it at all, only sentiment and narrative holding it up.
Such violent back-and-forth is not a sign of many opportunities, but a characteristic of the late stage. The more you watch the excitement, the more you have to ask yourself: am I entering as an investor, or am I just catching the last wave of sentiment?