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#HOODQ3TradingGrowth Q2 exceeded $0.62 versus $0.43 + $1.31B, but fell by -3.6% = 4th consecutive decline. August crypto -38% year-over-year, options +50%, events 15x.
Exceeding requires >$1.5B + 42% margin + Gold growth. Failure <$1.4B = $85 bear.#HOODQ3TradingGrowthBitcoin has recently shown a weak trend, but there is no need to be overly pessimistic😌.
From the perspective of volume and price, the trading volume during the pullback from October 22 to 26 was slightly lower than the decline from October 5 to 8, indicating that panic selling has eased and selling pressure has not continued to increase📉➡️📊.
The funding situation has also eased: U.S. spot ETFs saw net outflows of $636 million and $138 million on the 22nd and 23rd respectively, turning into a net inflow of $110 million yesterday; Coinank data shows that Bitcoin spot funds ended a four-day streak of net outflows, with a net inflow of $148 million yesterday💰. This indicates that the capital withdrawal lacks sustainability and short-term sentiment has somewhat recovered.
Therefore, Bitcoin may continue to probe lower, but the probability of holding the rebound trendline shown in the chart in the short term is relatively high, and the possibility of effectively breaking the 74,968 support level is low🛡️.
The above is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice⚠️. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 价格弹回去了，不代表多头已经把局面抢回来。@张教主。 本场最明确的判断是：$BTC 的反弹仍然偏弱，他更愿意等上方流动性被扫过，再观察掉头机会，而不是在底部盘整里追多。82200—82600是他重点观察的反弹区域，不是一定会到的报站点，更不是到了就宣告趋势翻多。 他的偏空判断，不只是因为某一根K线不好看。直播里，他反复把资金费率、盘口和量价放在一起比较：多头情绪与资金费率偏热，价格却没有走出相称的反弹力度；下跌时阴线较强，往上修复时阳线和成交量又显得不足。在他的框架里，多头愿意付成本，却迟迟推不出强势上涨，反而值得警惕。 但他也没有否认短线反弹的理由。盘口上，他观察到CVD进一步走低，价格却没有同步创出更低位置，存在小级别看涨背离。这能够解释价格为什么会弹，却不能直接证明大方向已经反转。他区分的是“有反弹条件”和“反弹足够强”：前者可以成立，后者仍需要更有力的价格表现来证明。 所以，82200—82600的意义在于位置，而不是许愿。他认为上方既有流动性，也有需要留意的缺口区域。如果价格先抬上去，扫掉部分空头止损，同时吸引追涨多头，再掉头向下，这是他更希望看到的剧本。价格先把双方的情绪调#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ A boring quarter 🔥 BTC is once again approaching the $80,000 mark! After three consecutive weeks of declines, the bulls need to mount a more convincing counterattack.
📊 Last week, Bitcoin dropped 2.43% and broke below the $82,500 support. The key question now is whether there is enough buying pressure around $80,000 to hold the floor, rather than assuming a bottom just because the price has hit a round number.
🌍 Macro risks are also shifting: rising energy prices, increasing inflation concerns, and the market may readjust its expectations for interest rates and liquidity accordingly. If risk appetite continues to decline, BTC could remain under pressure.
🔗 Another signal is that BTC’s recent price movements have become more synchronized with the Nasdaq and AI-related stocks. If tech stocks weaken, crypto assets may also be dragged down. Meanwhile, ETF fund flows are fluctuating in both directions, so it’s too early to interpret this simply as sustained institutional bullishness or a full-scale exit.
🎯 What to watch next: the $80,000 support, whether $82,500 can be reclaimed, and whether ETF funds show sustained inflows.
Before the market confirms, managing position size is more important than rushing to guess the bottom. Do you think this round of decline is mainly driven by macro factors or a lack of market momentum? #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 🔥 BTC has fallen for the third consecutive week, with $80,000 once again becoming a critical battleground between bulls and bears! This time, the market's concerns may no longer be limited to AI financing issues.
📉 Last week, Bitcoin dropped 2.43%, breaking the $82,500 support and retesting the $80,000 level. The continuous decline indicates pressure on the bulls; whether the key area can be held next will directly affect short-term sentiment.
🌍 Even more worrisome is that rising energy prices have reignited inflation fears. If inflationary pressure persists, the market may reassess the interest rate path, and risk assets could be impacted.
📊 Recently, BTC's correlation with Nasdaq and AI-related stocks has strengthened, indicating that the crypto market is not operating independently. ETF fund flows have also shown bidirectional changes, and institutional investor sentiment has yet to form a clear consensus.
⚠️ The focus going forward is on two things: whether $80,000 can be held, and whether the US stock market and ETF funds show synchronized improvement. Holding and reclaiming resistance levels will offer a chance to repair the trend; a decisive break below calls for caution against further pullbacks.
Do you think BTC can hold $80,000 this time, or will it continue to seek support lower? #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Today's Liquidation Overview: Of the $80 million, the bulls took the larger share
In the past 24 hours, the entire network saw about $80 million in liquidations. Volatility wasn't large, but the bulls were liquidated more severely, indicating that rebound sentiment remains weak.
$BTC hovered around 80,000, dipping once intraday near 79,500, but after recovering, it failed to produce a meaningful rebound. Resistance above remains unbroken, support below is average, so the short-term balance is still weak.
This week's key event is the FOMC interest rate decision; whether there will be another rate hike will determine the short-term direction. If no hike occurs, $BTC may see a short-term rebound; however, looking at the longer term, the rate hike cycle still suppresses risk assets, so rebound heights should not be overly expected.
Currently, it looks more like a low-volume game before the news lands: bulls are eager for reinforcements, while bears are guarding against a rebound. The liquidation structure is skewed toward longs, indicating that chasing long positions are still being passively cleared. Let's wait for the decision, then see if 80,000 can hold; don't mistake a short-term rebound for a reversal.
For market observation only, not investment advice.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 #谷歌云业务增长82%，AI投入回报如何？ AI has already started to pay off. Currently, it looks more like a chance to break even; it's too early to calculate long-term returns. The cloud business is profitable and orders are increasing, but investing in servers, data centers, and network equipment requires a large amount of capital. So far, AI has crossed the stage of burning money.BitMine is about 100,000 ETH short of the 5% target, but the market's pricing logic has already shifted ahead. Previously, Tom Lee stated that he would stop weekly purchases after reaching 5%, and BMNR dropped about 6% that day, with its market value falling back to roughly equal the value of its ETH holdings, no longer paying a premium for the “5% alchemy.” The market's real concern is not whether the buying pace is fast enough, but what growth narrative remains for this company after the purchases are complete.
Staking yields alone are insufficient to dispel these doubts. The annualized income of about $318 million from staking 5.23 million ETH corresponds to BitMine's highly concentrated asset structure: if ETH prices decline, the relative value of staking yields will be quickly diluted by unrealized losses on holdings. A more hidden risk lies on the liability side. BitMine has issued perpetual preferred shares with a 9.5% coupon, a rigid weekly cash obligation. If it is forced to reduce some staked ETH to cover dividends, it will not be an ordinary seller — the ETH it has staked accounts for about 12% of the total network staking, and congestion in the exit queue will simultaneously penalize all validators trying to leave.
Returning to the Ethereum ecosystem itself, a single listed company holding nearly 5% of the supply and staking 86% of that means this portion of ETH is effectively withdrawn from the circulating market, and the contraction of floating supply will amplify volatility in both upward and downward directions. Decentralization does not require dispersed coin holdings but demands that validation rights not be held hostage by a single entity's balance sheet.A clean beat with constructive commentary on HBM4 volumes, ASPs, and 2027 visibility would reinforce the view that this is a multi-year super-cycle rather than a one or two-quarter spike.
A soft guide or overly cautious tone on the HBM4 ramp could trigger a de-risking move, even if the absolute numbers still look spectacular by any historical standard.
I’ve covered these cycles long enough to know the pattern: Others are chasing bullish candles at the top of the range, while I am waiting for confirmation at the bottom of the range.
$ZEC recently dropped from 1600 to 1188, washing out billions of dollars in long positions, then spent half a month consolidating between 1120 and 1310. My entry point was in the lower middle of the range, at the second time it did not break the previous low.
From a professional perspective, this three-stage pattern of "sharp drop—sideways consolidation—no new lows" is more valuable than any single large bullish candle.
It indicates that the chip rotation is complete, and it’s not just emotions blowing bubbles again.
Now the price is hugging the top of the range; the key is whether it can break out with volume.
If it holds, the area above is empty; if it doesn’t, it’s just another round inside the range. Don’t get excited prematurely. $SOL $IRYS #BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ 反弹可以做多，但不等于趋势已经翻多；大方向看空，也不等于任何位置都能开空。@阿懿.Bit 这场对 $BTC 的态度很明确：承认短线有反弹需求，原有高位空单减仓后继续观察，等价格反弹到更有优势的位置，再考虑把仓位加回来。他想等的不是一句“涨不动了”，而是压力区真正出现价格反应。 这个区别很重要。手里有84500附近的历史空单，与此刻追着价格新开空单，承担的风险根本不同。他反复提到的84500，是已经持有并多次减仓的旧单，不是让后来进场的人照着这个数字去挂一笔新交易。剩余仓位小，才能容忍反弹；没有成本优势的人，不能把别人的耐心直接复制成自己的扛单理由。 先看BTC。他仍倾向把这段上涨理解为下跌过程中的调整，而不是已经确认的新上升趋势。但调整本身也有自己的结构：下方一直破不下去，就可能先往上突破。既然看见反弹需求，就不能只因为主观偏空，忽略低点逐步抬高、局部高点正在被反复测试的事实。 他留意的上方机会逐渐集中到81000—82000区域。其中81100—81200附近被多次提到，既涉及前方压力，也涉及小级别通道的上沿。不过，他并没有保证价格一定会反弹到这里。到不了，就继续观察已有仓位；真到了#HOODQ3TradingGrowth
$HOOD real growth story isn’t just about revenue—it’s about diversification.
Q2 revenue grew 32% YoY, but crypto revenue declined while other trading segments expanded. This makes Q3 a key test of Robinhood’s ability to build more sustainable revenue streams.
Can Robinhood maintain growth without relying heavily on crypto?【市场实时行情】$BTC $79,564（24h +1.24%），$ETH $2,347–$2,482区间，$SOL 在$100附近。恐惧贪婪指数48，连续两日中性。资金费率上，$BTC 加权费率0.0070%，中性；$ETH 加权费率0.0027%，偏空。整个盘面的定价前提是：美联储即将转向。 TS Lombard的研报，直接把这个前提撕开了一道口子。 👇 先把这份宏观警告的核心逻辑摆清楚： 🏦 终端利率可能超过前高：TS Lombard全球宏观董事总经理Dario Perkins明确表示，如果AI资本开支热潮持续，联邦基金终端利率可能达到甚至超过2023-24年5.25%–5.50%的峰值。而市场当前定价的终端利率只有4.50%–4.75%，差距接近75个基点。 📈 加息路径的极端假设：Perkins给出的官方预测是美联储每季度加息一次（25bp），直到出现某种“破裂”——而破裂不会发生在AI投资热潮结束之前。 🔗 传导链的核心在就业：Perkins的逻辑很直白——“如果货币政策真的是紧缩的，就业不应该在回升。如果AI真的在取代工作岗位，劳动力需求也不应该恢复。”如果近期劳Interest Rate Decision Preview: October Is Just the Beginning, Wording Is the Real Weapon
October is almost a done deal with no rate changes. CME data shows a 90.6% probability of holding rates steady, so the Fed has no need to bet against the market now. But the real suspense lies not in the decision itself, but in the post-meeting press conference.
This meeting will not release a new economic forecast or dot plot, meaning the market loses a key reference point. Every word Powell says will be magnified by investors and become the sole anchor for short-term pricing. Meanwhile, expectations for a December rate hike remain high, with probabilities rising to 67.5%—73.9%, indicating the Fed has not abandoned its hawkish options.
For BTC, there are two possible paths: if the statement continues to emphasize stubborn inflation and the need for restrictive policies, December rate hike expectations will be reinforced, putting pressure on risk assets; if the wording is dovish, unless it clearly signals the end of the rate hike cycle, the market is unlikely to reverse directly, and BTC is more likely to stabilize with reduced volume around the 80,000 level, leading to a short-term oversold rebound.
In short: watch the wording in October, watch expectations in December, and watch if BTC can hold the 80,000 level.
$BTC $ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Cerebras's plot twists are faster than a novel — last week it crashed 20% due to rumors of "OpenAI switching to another chip provider," then over the weekend Altman personally stepped in to say it is a "close partner," and on Monday it bounced back 10%; immediately after, Oracle announced it would use Cerebras's chips for cloud services, two catalysts coming in quick succession. OKEx xCBRS at 119.40, +8.96%, 24h climbed steadily from 107.10 to 120.50 near the high, volume 5,654, turnover 3.71%, MA5/30/120 all trending up; the underlying stock turnover is 10.14%, trading volume 953 million, heat is maxed out.
My judgment: This is an emotional recovery from "being abandoned" to "being embraced," both catalysts are real news, not rumors; but don't overlook — the 28.5 billion market cap relies on revenue commitments that won't be realized until 2027, and Oracle's cloud deal will take time to translate into revenue, emotional recovery and fundamental realization are two different things.
Watch the signals: a volume breakout above 120.50 (24h high) is a new high; if the underlying stock holds above 120.5 intraday, the recovery rally is still ongoing; the key is to watch Oracle's cloud service deployment progress and whether Altman's "deep cooperation" is followed by real orders.
#xCBRS #Cerebras #AIchip
Not investment advice, DYOR🌌 At 3 AM, the real state of three memes and small coins before the decision
$TRUMP 1.68, political meme waiting for Thursday early morning 🎭
TRUMP has no company, no product, no profit, with a fixed issuance amount. Its price fluctuations depend entirely on external news about personalities and macro risk appetite. Without independent news today, it moves sideways, with trading volume active among memes. But at Thursday early morning's Washington press conference, regardless of dovish or hawkish tone, this meme without fundamental support will see amplified volatility—if dovish, risk appetite rises and it bounces; if hawkish, funds withdraw first from high-volatility coins. Don't chase today, wait for the outcome.
$BOME meme points drift with the market 📉
BOME turns citation relationships in meme culture into on-chain points, adding a layer of user retention beyond pure air coins. Trading volume is just over 3 million USD, a very light market cap; a few tens of thousands of dollars can shake the price. Small coins like this have no independent direction before the decision and move with the market. Don't chase small bounces.
$WLD 0.479, World App users are increasing but the token isn't following 🌐
Worldcoin provides a "you are human" verification layer for the AI era. World App user numbers have been rising these quarters, but the token price hasn't kept up, indicating the market still doubts how much this demand is worth. Privacy controversies over biometric data persist, and regulatory attitudes remain unclear.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $LINK
Saw a pretty cold piece of news: the world's fourth largest gold hub HKGX is going to adopt Chainlink's CCIP for cross-chain gold token XGZ. Usually, no one pays attention to this kind of news, but I think it's worth pondering more than most of the wild price surge or plunge news.
The tokenization of gold has been pushed since BlackRock started BUIDL last year. What's the bottleneck? The problem is that different chains don't recognize each other's accounts. Gold, as a physical asset, is confirmed by custodians, but if tokens are issued on Ethereum and also on other chains, how do you ensure there's no double spending? Oracles solve this problem. Chainlink's current role is increasingly like financial infrastructure, less like hype.
Here's a contrast. When this news came out, LINK's price barely moved, hovering around 11.5. The market currently doesn't price in the narrative at all, all eyes are on BTC hitting 80,000. When RWA really picks up volume someday, looking back at this kind of news might not be cheap.
I don't hold LINK and don't plan to get in now; BTC hasn't even chosen its direction yet. But I will keep watching this direction.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC
Last night BTC dropped to a low of 79,505, then climbed back above 80,600 this morning. This back-and-forth is quite interesting. The 80,000 level has been crossed back and forth multiple times now.
Wintermute mentioned that after three consecutive weeks of decline, the $80,000 support level is now critical. I basically agree. Three weekly bearish candles have broken down the bulls' sentiment, and now the price is grinding along this line. If it holds, that's good; if not, below is a vacuum zone.
My own feeling is that there is a lot of divergence at this position. On the ETF side, there has actually been long-term capital continuously buying, but on the futures side, open interest just won't rise. Bulls don't dare to add positions, and bears don't dare to aggressively chase. The funding rate is only 0.01%, very flat, indicating neither side has much strength.
At times like this, I usually don't act. When the direction is unclear, forcing trades just means paying fees to the exchange. It's better to wait for it to choose a direction on its own and follow whichever side it breaks, rather than guessing.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 $BTC is pinned near $80K into tomorrow's Fed call. A hold is ~90% priced, but ~80% odds of a December hike are the real overhang. Strategy paused buying last week and futures OI barely moved, so little fresh money is coming in. Funding is mildly positive, not crowded. Bias: NEUTRAL. Takeaway: respect the $79.2K weekend low; a break would likely hit $ETH, $SOL and $LINK harder. Does a hold calm this market, or just delay the hike trade?As soon as $INIT starts to rise, I guess some brothers will begin to hesitate about whether to chase it.
My long position has already gained 1.3 times profit, with 10x leverage, and the position is still held.
The key to securing this profit is the entry point earlier. Opening a position around 0.17 versus chasing now near 0.193 obviously involves different levels of risk.
When the market is rising, people tend to focus only on how much more it can go up, forgetting how far they are from their stop-loss.
INIT is now approaching the 0.20 round number. If the short-term volume continues to push up, there is still room to watch. But if it fails to hold after a spike, a pullback could come quickly.
I'm not in a hurry to set an exaggerated target. First, protect the profits already gained, and then watch the subsequent trend as it unfolds. $BTC $ETH #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 Bitcoin's past bear markets have all followed a clear and reliable navigation chart: the 200-week moving average serves as a solid floor, while the 50-week moving average acts as a suppressive ceiling. In the week ending November 16, 2025, the price fell below the 50-week moving average and lingered below it for a full 44 weeks. The low point in June this year tested the floor support and successfully held: the worst single-week closing price was only 4.7% below the 200-week moving average #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ Hynix Q3 earnings report is about to be released!
Key points: The main driver of this quarter's performance is HBM3E; HBM4 has not yet taken on the role of boosting profits.
Currently, HBM4 has only limited supply; large-scale volume ramp-up is expected from Q4 this year to next year.
This quarter's high profits come from strong HBM3E orders and continuously rising DRAM prices.
The key for the future market lies in the earnings call, focusing on the official yield and shipment guidance for HBM4.
If progress exceeds expectations, profit potential will continue to expand; if it falls short, the market will face pressure.
Risk reminder: Content is for industry sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.Saylor stops, don’t call the bull market back yet
$BTC’s biggest clear bullish player Saylor made zero purchases last week, instead spending $205 million to buy back 2.06 million shares of STRC preferred stock, while leaving 840,000+ BTC untouched. The market immediately murmured: Is the faith recharge machine shutting down?
Don’t get misled by “optimizing capital structure.” STRC has floating dividends, so buybacks can reduce future interest burdens; more realistically, spending this money means fewer bullets to buy coins in the short term. The ordinary cash on the books is only $240 million, and money must be reserved to pay dividends and debt interest, so buying isn’t just a matter of desire.
Is this a sign of backing down? Not necessarily, but the funding pressure is unavoidable. Short-term sentiment is bearish: BTC was already bottoming around 80,000, and the biggest bull suddenly stops supplying, leaving one less pillar on the market—expecting an immediate V-shaped rebound is unrealistic.
Don’t rush to declare the bull market dead either; he’s adjusting finances, not liquidating and running. Next, watch two things: when he resumes buying coins and how much cash remains on the books. Operationally, don’t catch a falling knife: if BTC is hammered down to 79,000–80,000 on bad news but stabilizes on low volume, then consider picking up some bloodied chips; if it breaks below 79,000 directly, wait for 77,000 before reassessing. ETH, stay away for now.
$BTC $ETH
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
#美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落
#BTC现货ETF资金反复，市场买盘能否企稳？ Maji's $30, the whale's escape door 🚪
Big brother Maji's ETH long position has already hit the liquidation line. With 25x leverage, it was partially liquidated again this morning, leaving only 68 ETH, about $157,000. Liquidation price is 2290, current price 2320 — only $30 apart, if ETH shakes, the position could go to zero 😬
More heartbreaking are two whales on-chain. 0x882 deposited 2558.5 ETH to Kraken two hours ago, about $5.9 million; average entry price 2880, current price 2320, meaning a loss-taking exit. 0x5a3, dormant for 11 months, just redeemed 2511 ETH from Aave and transferred all to Binance. One is cutting spot, the other redeeming collateral, over 5000 ETH moving in the same direction: withdrawing first 🏃
In the past 24 hours, the whole network liquidated $175 million, longs $106 million. Fear and greed index at 47, neutral, but account feels like an icebox 🥶 Big players bleeding, retail getting hit, the index says don't panic, the positions say run fast.
Maji is still waiting for the $30 miracle, the whales are already not waiting. Your position, will you hold on with Maji or withdraw with the whales first? 💬
The above is only an on-chain data summary and does not constitute any trading advice.AI siphoning and the Fed's "tightening spell": Is the crypto market undergoing a "re-pricing"?
BTC is tugging at $80,000, Anthropic Pre-IPO perpetual contracts report $189.27, the gap between AI and mainstream coins has emerged. December rate hike expectations near 80%, BTC ETF weekly net outflow hits a high of $773 million, funds shifting to AI.
$ANTHROPIC plans to list in November with a valuation up to 2 trillion, crypto implied around 1.9 trillion; but no spot backing, sentiment-driven, official disapproval of SPV tokenization, compliance doubts, high-risk speculation.
$BTC at $80,548, breaking $80,000 multiple times within the week; $79,000 support, $82,000 must hold to talk momentum, $83,000 a double threshold; ETF and treasury cost zone $80,000-$81,500; rate hikes suppress valuation, Coinbase premium negative for 33 days.
$ETH at $2,343, ETH/BTC about 0.029, ETF four-week net outflow $220.7 million; risk of accelerated decline below $2,400, support at $2,150, resistance at $2,500; ETH lacks independent catalysts, difficult to strengthen independently before ETH/BTC stabilizes.
Summary: Liquidity is being siphoned by both AI narratives and tightening expectations; Anthropic frenzy but high compliance risk, BTC tug-of-war reflects interest rates, ETH weakness is a structural dilemma.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ On the eve of the FOMC decision, Bitcoin repeatedly tugged at the $80,000 mark, hitting a 24-hour low of $79,498, with nearly 80% of liquidations coming from long positions. Three positions in the account show two losses and one gain, indicating a fragile structure.
$DOGE short positions are floating at a loss of -15.92%, marked at 0.07821. Meme sector funds are flowing back, DOGE has rebounded over 10% in the short term, and the 24-hour long-short ratio has turned bullish again. The 0.08 level was breached for the first time in six weeks by buyers testing it. The strong liquidation price at 0.0809 is within reach; reducing positions is the only option.
$SOL short positions are floating at a loss of -15.04%, marked at 101.09. A whale has transferred 482,200 SOL (about $49.17 million) within three days preparing to sell, with 171,400 SOL already deposited to exchanges. However, the price has not fallen accordingly and is instead holding firm near 101. The selling pressure and buying orders are in a standoff. Continuing to hold short positions is very low in cost-effectiveness; stop loss is raised to 103, exit if broken.
$BTC long positions are floating with a profit of +10.04%, marked at 80,510. The $80,000 level is being tested for the third time. Whale transfers into exchanges continue to decline, retail selling pressure is being consumed, but no one dares to bet on direction before the FOMC. Hold the trump card, stop loss set below 79,500.
Whales are offloading, bulls are liquidating, and the FOMC holding steady is an open secret. $DOGE and $SOL short positions have no capital to wait; reduce positions, lock in profits, deleverage, and survive until the decision is announced. #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 $BTC ETFs closed last week +$301M (Farside), snapping a two-week bleed. $ETH funds did the opposite: four straight weekly outflows, ~$1.18B out in October. Record staking tightens supply, but ETF demand is fading. Rotation favors BTC for now, and December hike chatter is a headwind for $SOL and $LINK. Bias: cautious on ETH until flows turn. Does locked supply cushion ETH, or just trap sellers?02:27 Market Live: The Struggle at the $80K Threshold and the "Crazy Experiment" of Trillion-Dollar Valuation
At 02:27, the market is tugging at the $80,000 level. The Fed's "hawkish pause" looms, AI giants' IPOs siphon liquidity—BTC repeatedly battles at $80,607, ETH is stuck below the $2,347 moving average, and the Anthropic Pre-IPO contract bets early at $189.21 implying a trillion-dollar valuation.
$BTC (+0.09%): Calm is an illusion. Rising rate hike expectations, IPO capital diversion, Strategy halting purchases, $80,000 is the lifeline for bulls and bears, FOMC may set the direction.
$ETH (+0.05%): Testing EMA120, capped by EMA30/60 above; funding rate plummeted 56%, foundation-linked wallets swapping to USDS. Until reclaiming $2,350–$2,370, the rebound is just a correction.
$ANTHROPICUSDT (-0.83%): No spot backing, perpetual contract pricing expectations. S-1 filed, revenue growing fast but losses widening, IPO earliest mid-November; $189 implied valuation about $1.9 trillion. Risk lies in no issuance price range yet, contract price ≠ IPO pricing.
Summary: BTC, ETH await FOMC signals, Anthropic follows an independent narrative; the former focuses on statements and PCE, the latter warns not to mistake sentiment for value, position discipline outweighs directional judgment.
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？
Robinhood Chain trading volume plummeted 42%, but $1 billion in funds hasn't left yet!
On October 11, it was reported that the average daily on-chain trading volume of Robinhood Chain dropped 42% compared to mid-September, and spot trading also cooled down significantly. However, on-chain DeFi application deposits still exceed $1 billion, indicating that although trading has slowed, funds have not noticeably withdrawn. The network fee waiver for qualifying wallet exchanges will continue until December 31. (Crypto.news)
**My view:** A decline in trading activity doesn't mean funds are bearish. What really matters is whether users will continue trading after the fee waiver ends. The buzz can be driven by promotions, but long-term development ultimately depends on genuine demand and ecosystem strength. 对于AI叙事明天第一战就要迎接海力士财报，北京时间上午9点，海力士财报公布，通过今天的情况来看，海力士财报预期走强，并且今天的亚盘阶段提前发酵利好，美股阶段延续部分利好情绪 接下来对于海力士财报关注点基本是关于HBM4、2027年HBM指引、DRAM ASP 、利润率与资本支出，还有NANA与Solidigm的情况 核心点关注三大点 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ a，看HBM4而不是看HBM3E，显示市场预期海力是的HBM很强，但是强在哪？HBM4的能否顺利接棒HBM3E继续为海力士带来收入 b，2027年的HBM订单情况，在AI巨头继续扩大资本开支的前提下，GPU订购增加，HBM是否也增加订购，然后传导至海力士订单是否真正增加，未来产能锁定很重要 c，DRAM价格，目前市场预期HRAM ASP 价格继续上涨，能否符合预期，将关乎海力士的未来盈利能力评估 至于营业利润里、电话会议2027年的指引以及股东回报属于其他关注因素 不过海力士的财报就算是利好，依旧不够扭转整个AI产业被宏观挤压的局面，在Brent价格不回归110美元上方的前提下，核心还是要看周四的微#Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？
Some may not have heard of robinhood, so what does it do?
Robinhood started in 2013 with zero-commission stock trading and has now transformed into a "financial super app," covering trading, subscriptions, crypto, prediction markets, etc., and is included in the S&P 500.
Robinhood's business segments are divided into
① Trading revenue about $776 million, up 44% year-over-year: options $342 million, stocks $129 million, event contracts $156 million, crypto $100 million
② Net interest income $389 million, 9%
③ Other income $143 million, 54%, mainly from Gold subscriptions (about 4.8 million users)
We can see robinhood's consensus EPS is between $0.55 and $0.56. Before the Polymarket earnings report, pricing showed the probability that GAAP EPS strictly exceeds $0.56 is about 67%.
Looking back historically, the EPS beat rate over the past 8 quarters is about 63%, with 3 beats in the last 4 quarters (75%), averaging about 15% above expectations.
$HOOD options revenue consensus is about $399.8 million, 31.5%
Event contracts about $156 million, net interest about $430.7 million; other income about $134.4 million, 52.7%
The drag on robinhood is crypto revenue about $118.7 million, down 55.7% year-over-year.
Whether it can surpass $0.56 depends on observing if options and event contracts can beat expectations to offset the decline in crypto revenue 🤔Federal Reserve decision approaching, why is BTC more resistant to decline than US stocks?
As the Federal Reserve's policy meeting approaches at the end of the month, the market's real concern may not only be whether interest rates will be cut this time, but also the ongoing uncertainty brought by Trump's policies.
Macro: Inflation remains the key variable
Geopolitical conflicts and rising energy prices may increase inflationary pressure, limiting the Federal Reserve's room for future rate cuts. If interest rates remain high, growth stocks and AI-related assets will continue to be under pressure.
BTC: Adjusting, resilience remains
After falling from the high of $87,000, BTC has adjusted by about 9%, but compared to US semiconductor stocks, Japanese and Korean markets, and AI infrastructure-related stocks, it still shows relatively stronger resistance to decline.
Technically, the 3-day moving average still exerts pressure, and the daily RSI is gradually approaching the oversold area. A short-term further pullback is not ruled out, but the current adjustment is not enough to directly negate the medium-term trend.
What to watch next?
1️⃣ The Federal Reserve's statements on inflation and future interest rates
2️⃣ Whether BTC can hold the current consolidation range
3️⃣ Whether institutional and whale selling pressure will continue to be released
My view: Short-term caution is still needed, but BTC's relative strength is worth attention. If macro pressure continues, the market may continue to shake out positions; whether it can develop an independent trend still requires further price confirmation.
The above is only my personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 I am optimistic about the medium-term demand for AI storage, but remain cautious about the market performance of Hynix in the 1–3 trading days following the earnings report. The key factors determining the short-term direction are the gap between actual results and market expectations, the Q4 guidance, shareholder return plans, and the market's re-pricing of the HBM competitive landscape.$BTC short-term spot has some buyers, holding steady at 80,000. But the 30-day futures net outflow is 7.5 billion; holding the base position doesn’t mean leverage is fully cleared. Chasing highs now is like reaching out to catch a knife.
$ETH is really weak. The 30-day futures net outflow exceeds 8 billion, even worse than BTC. Both spot and futures are getting hit hard; the main players are running away without mercy. Weakness won’t change overnight.
$SOL has some hot money coming in for short-term speculation, but the 30-day futures net outflow is nearly 2 billion. The sentiment is hot, but leverage is quietly withdrawing. When the tide recedes, don’t stand at the front.
Looking at the liquidation chart: 120 million in 24 hours, over 50,000 people wiped out, nearly 70% long positions. BTC and ETH are the hardest hit.
In short: watch the mood over 4 and 24 hours, watch the pressure over 30 days. It looks more like a redistribution after a drop, not a new round of breakout. Manage your positions and wait for signals.
FOMC is this week, the eye of the macro storm is at the doorstep, fasten your seatbelt @Nuts坚果 认为，眼下最容易亏钱的动作，不是错过一根反弹，而是在没有位置的时候硬找交易。$BTC 的四小时回撤与周线潜在机会并不矛盾：短周期还可能向下扫流动性，大周期却可能在回踩确认后重新给出做多窗口。他愿意等，但不把“看好后面”当成现在追进去的理由。 先看BTC。他更关心79000下方的流动性，直播中也提到等待78000附近的机会。重点不是碰到某个整数就买，而是下探以后怎么收回来，能不能出现明确的止跌与结构确认。如果只是价格到了、形态没出来，等待就没有结束。 在他看来，79500至81000一带来回拉扯，方向和盈亏比都不够舒服。往上追，容易买在反弹中段；往下做，又可能正好撞上周线回踩的机会。近期回升也不能替代原先的入场条件，不能因为盘面变绿，就把等下探的计划临时改成市价追多。 他的仓位并非完全空白。BTC已有现货，用来应对市场不再给深回踩、直接走强的可能；同时还有更早高位空单留下的一点尾仓，若继续下探，考虑逐步收掉，再观察转向做多的条件。这里要分清：旧空单尾仓不等于当下继续重仓看空，已有现货也不等于新一轮合约多单已经进场。 真正支撑他等待的，是周线级别的潜在变化。如果周线金叉后回$DOGE Is this bull market worth holding long-term???
In long-term allocations, BTC and DOGE each actually have their place. BTC follows the digital gold path, relying on scarcity for value storage; but going back to Satoshi Nakamoto's original point-to-point electronic cash concept, DOGE is actually closer to that original direction.
Many people dismiss DOGE because of "infinite issuance," but they overlook that the fixed annual increase of about 5 billion coins will be diluted as the total supply grows, with the current annual inflation around 3%, which will decrease over time. Currency doesn't necessarily have to be absolutely deflationary; DOGE is more designed for circulation and payment, rather than encouraging everyone to lock up and hoard.
More importantly, DOGE is an independent PoW public chain, maintained by miners' computing power and electricity, which is fundamentally different from tokens issued directly on other chains. In contrast, BTC is becoming more financialized and more like a value store, drifting away from the electronic cash vision, and the community's route disputes make one reflect: is today's direction still the original intention?
So the question isn't whether DOGE is perfect, but whether you believe in the "payment + circulation" path. What do you think? #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
本周FOMC料按兵不动（维持3.75%–4.00%）
$BTC 已提前反应、在8万关口磨底，
$ETH 同步偏弱。
真正变量是措辞：鹰派暂停（暗示12月再加）→美元美债走强，BTC下探、ETH跌幅更大（高β属性）；
鸽派留窗→流动性预期修复，BTC抢跑反弹，ETH弹性更强、补涨更猛。
操作上：决议前不追高，防“卖事实”插针；鹰派砸盘缩量可低吸BTC，ETH等企稳再跟。
加密交易的是“预期差”，不是“加不加”。
$SOL $BTC Bitcoin contract long and short positions are both increasing, with both sides betting on the direction, but the overall price is rising. It is speculated that the price increase may be caused by spot inflows, and a glance at the inflow data confirms this. The price is rising, but short sellers adding positions have no effect; the first to suffer are the shorts. If shorts can't resist mass stop-losses, a breakout bullish candlestick will appear on the chart. Currently, the price has not yet broken through the resistance of the one-hour moving average, so the short squeeze has not been realized. It now depends on the subsequent spot inflow volume.#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
This week, the FOMC is expected to hold steady (maintaining 3.75%–4.00%).
$BTC has already priced this in, consolidating near the 80,000 level,
$ETH is also showing relative weakness.
The real variable is the wording: hawkish pause (implying a December hike) → strengthens the dollar and US Treasuries, causing BTC to dip and ETH to fall even more (due to its higher beta);
Dovish window left open → liquidity expectations improve, BTC leads a rebound, ETH shows stronger resilience and a sharper catch-up rally.
In terms of strategy: avoid chasing highs before the decision to prevent a "sell the fact" spike; if hawkish selling is on low volume, consider buying BTC on dips, and follow with ETH once it stabilizes.
Crypto trading is about "expectation gaps," not just "whether to hike or not."
$SOL Conclusion first: $GRVT surged from 0.218 to 0.261 within 3 hours after 9 PM last night, now at 0.2387, down -8.6% from the peak.
The driver is Mirae Asset Securities (HK), the Hong Kong subsidiary of Korea's Mirae Asset: they arranged a tokenized funding note issuance, subscribed by Grvt, with exposure used for their own Grvt Earn.
But the on-chain funds don't match: DefiLlama shows only $34.02 million in the Grvt bridge, down 70% from the March 22 peak of $113.7 million; CoinGecko market cap is $27.28 million, FDV $238.66 million, with only 11.4% circulating.
The action is on exchanges: OKX perpetual 24-hour volume is $22.22 million, open interest only $3.05 million; funding rate at floor price 0.00005, premium -0.05%, indicating buying turnover in perpetuals, not a short squeeze, spot 24-hour volume only $6.1 million.
So institutional money is going into on-chain products, not the $GRVT token; you are holding the 11.4% circulating supply, FDV 8.75 times market cap portion. Grvt Earn is also only open to qualified users and permitted jurisdictions.
What do you think: with broker money stuck on-chain and not moving, how much premium is left on the token? 我的判断：DOGE在风险偏好回升时更有机会率先出现快速上涨；FIL也有补涨空间，但持续走强更依赖项目需求改善和供给压力缓解。 从目前的数据看，我还不认为全面山寨牛市已经确认。10月27日的一项山寨季指数约为57，尚未达到通常用于确认山寨季的75。 一、先看 FIL 和 DOGE 当前的位置 二、11月到2027年第一季度：三个行情情景 以下价格是我基于目前价格、波动特征和宏观条件设定的情景区间，不是预测一定会达到的目标价。 情景 FIL DOGE 乐观：停火落实、资金流入、山寨季启动 $1.30–$2.00 $0.12–$0.18 中性：局势缓和，但市场仍然分化 $0.75–$1.25 $0.065–$0.105 悲观：战事升级、利率偏高、币市下跌 $0.45–$0.70 $0.045–$0.065 我不会把乐观情景当作基准情景；中性区间更适合作为观察范围，跌破悲观区间也并非不可能。 从当前参考价到乐观情景上沿的潜在涨幅 这也说明一个关键点：DOGE不一定比FIL涨得多，两者都有高弹性，但上涨的驱动力完全不同。 三、为什么选举后可能出现利好？ 1. 伊朗停火是第一个催化剂 10月25@颜驰 认为，反弹可以做，但不能把一段反弹自动当成趋势反转。$BTC 靠近81200时，短线多单先兑现，比一边承受高资金费率、一边期待直冲更高位置更稳妥。他这场反复提醒的风险，是资金费率依旧偏高，向下插针的可能性不能忽略。 先分清两个问题：能不能短线做多，和反弹到哪里应该收手，不是一回事。他并不否定低位止跌后的短多，但认为交易者要知道自己赚的是什么钱。如果只是跌破收回、趋势线突破带来的反弹机会，就该按短线处理，不能临到阻力又突然改口做长线。 BTC的重点仍在上方反弹阻力。81200附近是他多次提到的短多止盈参考，收尾也把81200至82200一带放进反弹寻找空头机会的观察范围。这里不是碰价就一定下跌，更不是一张没有止损的空单通知：他同时区分左侧试单与右侧确认，要求先弄清自己采用哪种方法，再谈仓位与防守。 他特别纠正了一种机械想法：BTC到了81200，并不意味着立刻一根线砸下去。价格可能先在81000至82000之间盘整，部分山寨也可能趁这段时间继续反弹。所以，看BTC上方阻力，与其他资产短线还有上涨空间，可以同时成立，不能把所有品种的节奏简单绑在同一分钟。 但盘整也不等于向上突破。他$BTC holders are starting to collectively lose money! From 75% to 16%, how fast has the market turned?
Stop just staring at $BTC's candlesticks; the chips inside exchanges might be revealing even more painful signals.
On October 27, short-term Bitcoin holders' inflows to exchanges have shifted to being dominated by losses.
The balance of loss and profit inflows changed from +10,400 $BTC a week ago to -18,600 BTC.
Even more striking, in the past week, the proportion of hourly inflows in profit dropped from 75% to 16%.
What does this mean?
A week ago, most chips entering exchanges were still in profit; now, the proportion of profitable chips has clearly shrunk, and the pressure from loss-driven selling is taking over.
This doesn't mean all short-term holders are cutting losses, but the market's chip structure is changing.
As more people move from floating profits to floating losses, two choices usually follow: accept losses and exit, increasing selling pressure; or hold on and wait for a rebound to break even. #SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？ #本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议 #美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落 Brazil just demonstrated why 24/7 crypto markets matter.
Sunday: Corporate clients generated 78% of Mercado Bitcoin's trading volume. USDT turnover surged nearly 800% versus the previous Sunday.
Monday: Brazilian stocks plunged 13.88%, while the dollar jumped 8.21% against the real.
This wasn't a memecoin frenzy. Companies were seeking protection from currency volatility.
When traditional markets close, stablecoins remain accessible.
#TetherFreezes550MUSDT But there’s another side to this. Google still has ground to make up in AI products, while Meta’s challenge is proving that its massive investment will deliver sustainable returns.
In this cycle, spending big gets you into the race. Turning that spending into profitable growth is what separates the winners from the rest.
#MetaAISpendingConcerns Google and Meta are taking different paths to fund the AI race, and the market is weighing more than just how much they spend.
Google’s advantage is its cloud business, which can turn AI demand into revenue. Meta, meanwhile, is spending aggressively while free cash flow comes under pressure, raising questions about how it will finance the next phase without unsettling investors.
#MetaAISpendingConcerns Those in the group who post daily about "NU7 upgrade" and "Grayscale ETF crazy inflows"—doesn't it feel like a scam gang sending official-looking documents and free eggs in the chat? They trick you into feeling ecstatic, thinking you're about to get rich quickly, and you rush in to go long. And the result? Look at the backend data: 68% of retail investors have jumped in. This isn't just boarding the train; it's walking straight into a telecom fraud zone in northern Myanmar! You keep staring On the eve of the data release, the market is extremely fragmented, with all three positions in the account showing floating profits, but structural risks have not been eliminated.
$ETH short position floating profit +39.12% (+621.8U), mark price 2352.64 has widened the gap from the liquidation price 2588.17, with a margin rate of 2334% providing a buffer. However, the funding rate dropped sharply by 56% in the past 24 hours, and ETH broke below the approximately 2350 USD uptrend line, indicating a clear weakening of leveraged long demand. This profit must be partially realized; floating profits should not be held as a drawdown.
$BNB long position floating profit +15.59% (+113.99U), margin rate 930%, with tolerable error margin. After CZ rang the Nasdaq opening bell today, he stated that crypto assets will become the "native currency of AI," hoping BNB Chain will become the main network, providing short-term narrative support. However, it is not advisable to increase exposure before the data; set a trailing stop to secure profits.
$BTC short position floating profit +27.59% (+180.25U), margin rate 2220%, is the account's most resilient trump card. BTC is repeatedly contesting the 80,000 level, with over $150 million in forced liquidations in derivatives in a single day; short liquidations accounted for 58% in the past 12 hours, indicating a shift in short-term selling pressure structure. Volatility will only increase before the Fed decision, so hold onto this trump card.
In terms of operations, reduce ETH positions to lock in profits, move BNB stop loss upward, hold BTC short positions for hedging, avoid betting on one-sided moves, and stay alive until the data is released. #Robinhood交易业务增长能否延续？ The market is warming up, but sector differentiation is obvious. Let me share my observations
Just took a look at the market and the latest ETF data, quite interesting,
Here are some personal tracking notes:
1. A few days ago, ETFs were collectively retreating, but the data on October 21 shows BTC, ETH, and SOL all turning to net inflows. Although it turned positive in a single day, ETH and SOL have still been net outflows over the past 30 days overall; a short-term warming does not mean a complete trend reversal.
2. Market details: Looking at it together, BTC is steady at 80,523, XRP leads in gains. But notably, the platform coin $OKB is the only one showing a slight decline.
3. Key point: The Federal Reserve meeting on October 28 is coming soon.
Personally, I feel that although institutional funds are turning back, it’s not yet a time for full optimism. 85,000 is a relatively important psychological threshold for BTC.
Would like to hear everyone’s thoughts. Do you think the short term is dominated by capital flow or by macro news?
This is just a market record and does not constitute investment advice.
#本周将公布10月FOMC利率决议
#SK海力士Q3财报在即，HBM4能否提振盈利？
#美伊讨论霍尔木兹开放方案，油价回落