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Looking at BitGo's financial report, I want to explain a concept that newcomers often confuse: book profit does not equal a full business recovery. The company’s net income for Q3 2026 was $44.1 million, mainly driven by the appreciation of digital asset treasury; total revenue was $2.85 billion, down 50.9% year-over-year.
📌 My judgment is that this looks more like the asset side propping up profits and cannot be directly taken as a sign of business strengthening. To compare the numbers: net income is positive, but adjusted EBITDA shows a loss of $4.3 million. The two metrics have different bases and cannot be directly subtracted, but this reminds us to break down the sources of profit. The revenue decline is mainly due to a weak trading environment and reduced digital asset sales, with business activity still under pressure.
Don’t jump to a negative conclusion either: after a unified price adjustment, platform assets grew 32% year-over-year, indicating that asset scale is still expanding. The most common mistake newcomers make is to translate “the company made money” directly into “the industry will rise.” What I will focus on next is whether these assets can be converted into sustainable service revenue.$BTC falls along with the US stock market when it drops, but doesn't follow when the US stock market rallies.
Last week, the Nasdaq 100 fell 4.9%, BTC weekly chart fell 4.5%, almost in sync.
Last night, the US stock market rebounded strongly: S&P +2.35%, the largest single-day gain since April 8; Nasdaq +2.74%; Philadelphia Semiconductor +6.9%; Brent crude oil −5.8%.
During the same US stock trading session (Taipei 22:00–05:00, hourly K-line), BTC only rose 0.19%, touched 75,570 intraday but was pushed back down.
Current price is about 74,670, 0.25% lower than 8 AM Monday; gold rose +1.27% in the same period.
To confirm BTC is catching up with risk assets again, it must at least break above last night's high of 75,570.
Only following the drops but not the rises is not an independent trend; the whole market is waiting for tonight's 21:30 CPI report.
Not investment advice | Data: CNBC/Economic Times (US stock market close), OKX BTC-USDT and XAUT 1H K-line
#美股三大指数集体上涨，标普500创7个月最大单日涨幅 11/10 Market Notes: The way of falling is more important than the extent of the drop
Total liquidations across the network reached 277 million, with long positions at 177 million. But BTC, ETH, ZEC, and HYPE are not falling in the same way.
1. $BTC: Orderly turnover
$74,676, -0.31%, volume 55 billion (+20%), open interest 51.6 billion, funding rate +0.0087%. Increased volume without breaking support, funding rate still positive, indicating selling pressure is being absorbed. After leverage exits, spot price forms a support zone between 74,000 and 75,000.
2. $ETH: Bulls are being slowly dismantled
$2,120, -1.02%, funding rate only +0.0034%. Nearly 80% of accounts are long, but active selling accounts for 60%. Long positions "still exist," but active buying has left. The clearing is not over, just not all at once.
3. $ZEC: Whale longs have lost ground
1,173.79. Price broke below cost line, triggering passive liquidation.
SOL is just a footnote: $86, -1.56%, open interest slightly increased, volume declined—funds are not paying attention, leverage is not taking a stance.
Conclusion: Funds have not fully exited, they are shifting leverage elsewhere. BTC is the last place leverage is willing to stay; ETH is still being slowly dismantled; ZEC has been liquidated#美国10月CPI今晚公布，加息预期能否改变？ #NVIDIA investigation turmoil continues, market value shrinks by over $190 billion in a single day
The leader has something to say
I came across this about NVIDIA, with updated figures: On November 9, NVDA closed down 4.27%, with a single-day market value loss of about $192.5 billion. The cause was the board initiating an independent investigation on November 8 to examine information security risks triggered by Jensen Huang's personal relationships. Now the turmoil has spread to Congress: lawmakers are demanding further understanding of the situation and calling for a review of some AI chip export licenses, which could weaken NVIDIA's lobbying power against expanding chip export restrictions. NVDA fell another 0.39% today.
My interpretation is: on the surface, it's a scandal, but essentially it's a dual risk of governance and regulation. The $192.5 billion evaporation in one day indicates the market is repricing NVIDIA—from "the overall leader in the AI chain" to a target with "governance discounts plus export policy uncertainty." The community suggests shorting on rallies, reasoning that even if earnings slightly beat expectations, declining gross margins will drag down the entire semiconductor sector. For the crypto space, NVDA is the master switch of risk appetite; if it doesn't stabilize, high-beta assets like BTC will struggle to strengthen independently.
BTC is currently around 75,000, consolidating midday Tuesday. My approach: the NVDA investigation is a slow-moving variable and won't affect tonight's positions; no chasing above 75,000, watch for a break below 74,500 targeting 73,000. Tonight we have SoftBank earnings plus 21:30 CPI, will decide direction after the data.
The above analysis is time-sensitive, please stay safe. $BTC $ETH $SOL CPI will be released tonight, will Bitcoin and US stocks rebound?
At 21:30 tonight, the US will release the October CPI.
Market expectations:
Overall CPI is expected to rise 0.3% month-over-month, previous value 0.6%.
Core CPI is expected to rise 0.2% month-over-month, previous value 0.3%.
The market has already anticipated cooling inflation; the key tonight is whether the results can exceed market expectations.
If core CPI is below 0.2%, the probability of a rate hike in December decreases, US Treasury yields will fall, which will bring a strong rebound to Bitcoin and tech stocks.
If overall CPI is 0.3% and core CPI is 0.2%, it meets expectations, and the market trend may still be normal fluctuations.
If core CPI reaches 0.3% or higher, it indicates inflation is harder to reduce, a rate hike in December is basically certain, and Bitcoin and US stocks may continue to decline in the short term.
The probability of favorable CPI data is not high; don't rush to bottom-fish. If the data is released below market expectations, you can chase the rise, take profits, and don't overextend.
Previously shared gold and Google have both risen 8%. You can sell part of the short-term holdings, but remain optimistic for the medium to long term, and continue to buy in batches on subsequent pullbacks.
#美国10月CPI今晚公布，加息预期能否改变？ 币圈行情延续下行，今日开始试探74000关口，盈利状态依旧没有太多想讲的东西。聊点常识性问题，整个金融的预测情况，很多朋友都觉得非常奇怪，现在的走势越来越不符合金融逻辑。前期教过大家的判断方法，现在几乎都不怎么灵敏。也就是老崔之前讲的汇率换算法，财报预估，外汇结算，出口数据，老美的收益率。现在的情况变成了，任何数据的发布都是下跌，美债收益只会上涨，美股延续下行。即使在这种消息面与数据的压迫下，还会有人选择牛市的做法，老崔也不想过多介入，坚定自己的想法，也会显得这个人主体性很强。本身对比特币的预测，就是一个熊市的形态，随着浪形的破坏，技术层面也在转向熊市，九月十八日启动的二浪形态，最低位置处于76256，现在正在向一浪的低谷发起冲锋。 这也是中线级别的止盈目标，启动点的区间处于6-6.5W关口之间，确切一点讲62723的启动点。大家的思路想要与老崔保持同步，以中线的思维去对待整个市场的波动，那就需要做到在此之前坚定看空，并且对下一轮的预测，必须要等待本轮行情的结束。很多朋友的做法，老崔看着都累，想做中线却对短线极度痴迷，行情无论正确与否，都会动摇自己的内心。赚到短线的收益，就想对自己进行🔍 Does the fact that many people are selling at a loss serve as a clue that the "shakeout is over"? Don't rush to conclusions yet. Glassnode data shows that at the end of October, among the more than 300 tokens it tracks, only about 12% of short-term holders sold at a profit, compared to about 80% at the end of September.
An interesting detail here: the statistics are based on profit and loss at the time of sale, not unrealized losses. I see this as an alert for short-term risk appetite rather than evidence of a bottom. First, losses have already been realized, indicating some holders are unwilling to wait any longer; second, the sample only involves short-term holders, so it cannot be used to judge whether long-term funds are also withdrawing.
This is my speculation: if this kind of loss-selling continues, the altcoin narratives driven by short-term sentiment will find it harder to sustain momentum. But whether the selling is active stop-loss or forced exit, the data doesn't provide an answer. What I will watch next is whether the selling pressure is truly being absorbed, rather than hastily calling a market bottom.24-hour top 10 whale loss addresses position changes, bulls dominate, market funds clearly diverging!
Top 10 whale loss position data:
1️⃣ $BRENTOIL long position: position value 90.3356 million U, 996,300 BRENTOIL
2️⃣ $BTC long position: position value 68.0754 million U, 912.92 BTC
3️⃣ $ETH long position: position value 51.8332 million U, 24,500 ETH
4️⃣ $BTC long position: position value 50.0396 million U, 671.11 BTC
5️⃣ $BTC short position: position value 44.7373 million U, 600 BTC
6️⃣ $BTC long position: position value 44.7294 million U, 600 BTC
7️⃣ $BTC long position: position value 36.0153 million U, 482.97 BTC
8️⃣ $ETH long position: position value 33.6693 million U, 15,900 ETH
9️⃣ $BTC long position: position value 33.6677 million U, 451.54 BTC
🔟 $HYPE long position: position value 33.3173 million U, 451,500 HYPE
Key points:
Top 10 loss positions: 9 long, 1 short, bulls dominate
BTC and ETH long losses cluster, only one $BTC short position trapped, the gap between longs and shorts has widened.
This round of sell-off mainly traps bottom-fishing bulls, bottom-fishing funds repeatedly getting slapped by the market.
Under this structure, the lower support positions are likely to continue being trapped, short-term volatility is mainly bearish, waiting for key news to break the balance. Today’s market shows two extremely divergent sets of data. After reading this, you won’t panic; instead, you might even laugh out loud:
On one side, it’s extremely quiet:
#BTC has had five consecutive weekly losses, SOL has dropped 21% in the past 30 days, XRP has fallen 22%, ETH has broken below the bull-bear dividing line, and the altcoin season narrative has completely fizzled out;
On the other side, there is ironclad evidence of a bottom:
Currently, the average cost for miners to mine 1 BTC is as high as $78,000. The $74,500 coin price is forcing miners to shut down power, and the network’s hash rate difficulty is expected to drop by 6.4%.
The last time we saw this level of hash rate adjustment was at the end of June this year, when the $60,000 golden bottom was hammered out!
This reminds me of the insight from the last time $BTC dropped to $20,000:
Every time the market enters a long period of sideways decline, retail investors see "no one is playing anymore, it’s going to zero";
But veterans know that when the secondary market price falls below miners’ production cost (at a 5% discount), the cycle is forcibly subsidizing spot holders.
Back when it was $20,000, I foolishly tried short-term trades and altcoins, wasting my bottom chips;
This round, I’ve learned my lesson—cut all altcoin illusions, focus on cash flow outside the market during the day, and mindlessly accumulate miners’ bloodied chips at 3 a.m.:
In this grinding sideways market, are you still holding your base position firmly? $BTC $ETH $ZEC #英伟达调查风波持续，市值单日缩水逾1900亿美元 Last night, the US stock market opened with the Nasdaq rising, US stocks went up, but the overall market remained flat and sideways. What signal is it waiting for? First, the US-Iran talks made significant progress, crude oil plummeted, but the market still did not move. The key focus is tonight's CPI data. The non-farm payroll data has already raised expectations for rate hikes in advance. The drop in oil prices temporarily cools inflation. I personally expect tonight's CPI data to likely be $SKL
SKALE offers gas-free transactions for developers through a network of app-specific chains, a model that suits games and high-frequency apps. Removing fees from users doesn't remove costs from the system, though. How sustainable the economics are for chain operators, and whether builders stay once incentives change, is the real question.There's something I've never quite understood: Japan sells government bonds, so why is it my account's coins that end up dropping?
On November 10, Japan auctioned 30-year government bonds with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.36, lower than the past year's average of 3.6 and also lower than the last time's 3.88. Simply put, no one wants to buy. The swap market says the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in December is 77%.
The logic isn't complicated: a lot of money is borrowed in yen to buy other assets because yen interest rates are almost zero. Once Japan raises rates, this money has to be paid back; to pay back, assets have to be sold, and of course, the easiest to sell are things like $BTC that can be liquidated anytime.
When there's movement in Japan, my side turns red. It's quite absurd, but there's nothing to be done.On November 10, Japan's 30-year government bond auction had a bid-to-cover ratio of only 3.36, below the 12-month average of 3.6 and also lower than the previous 3.88. Three times in a row, the direction is clear: long-term government bonds are becoming increasingly difficult to sell.
The difficulty in selling is not due to lack of money, but lack of willingness. Global fiscal policy concerns have suppressed subscription willingness—buyers are not short of funds, but unwilling to lock money for thirty years at this price. When even the longest maturity debt of a country requires a price increase to attract buyers, the market is repricing "fiscal sustainability."
The crucial point is the latter: the swap market has priced in a 77% chance of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December. Japan is the last major economy maintaining ultra-low interest rates globally, and the yen has long been the funding currency for carry trades. Once the rate hike happens, the cost of borrowing yen to buy global assets will rise, immediately changing the cost-effectiveness of these positions.
The transmission path is straightforward: rising yen funding costs lead to unwinding of carry trade positions, and high-volatility assets are sold first. $BTC is never absent in such contractions, $ETH often falls faster due to heavier ecosystem leverage, and $SOL can resist for a while thanks to on-chain activity but cannot change the overall direction.
I wouldn't call this a crash. A more accurate description is: the era of cheap yen is ending, and the valuation anchor for global risk assets needs to be recalculated. Before the December meeting, rebounds are better seen as opportunities to reduce positions rather than signals to enter.Tokenizing US stocks is something I think is more worth discussing this week than the price.
Two pieces of news together: The NYSE has chosen Avalanche as the clearing and settlement ledger for its 24/7 tokenized securities platform, still awaiting regulatory approval; Formation Securities has filed with the SEC to launch a tokenized stock trading venue on Solana, planning to go live in early 2027.
What does this mean for ordinary people? In the future, you can buy and sell US stocks even at midnight, settle with stablecoins, keep stocks in your own wallet, and still have dividends and voting rights.
But I won’t chase coins because of this. Solana’s initial batch only has 3 stocks, trading volume is capped, and it’s only open to verified investors, so widespread adoption is still far off. In the short term, I’m more focused on tonight’s 9:30 PM CPI; ETFs still saw a net outflow of about $1.28 billion last week.
Will you try tokenized US stocks or continue using brokers?
(Personal opinion, not investment advice)
#AVAX #SOL #TokenizationTonight, a signal that not many people are sharing, but is more fundamental than the K-line: Japan's 30-year government bond auction demand is weak, with the bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 3.36 (previously 3.88). After the auction, yields didn't fall but rose, and ultra-long-term rates are moving back up.
In plain language, the world's largest supplier of "cheap money" can't even sell its own long-term bonds now. The market is worried about fiscal health. Coupled with the swap market pricing in about a 77% chance of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December, it means the low-interest environment that arbitrage funds rely on is tightening.
In recent years, the underlying fuel for risk assets, including $BTC, has largely been this global excess liquidity. When long-term bonds are being drained and central banks are tightening, the valuations of risk assets are swimming naked against the wind.
Don't get too excited about the sharp rebound in US stocks those days; the water level underneath is quietly dropping. You watch the CPI, I watch the interest rates. Where is the AI bubble at? Just look at one signal: the hottest unicorn is rushing to go public and cash out.
Anthropic plans to rush to Nasdaq before Thanksgiving, with roadshows starting these days, and even JPMorgan's Dimon personally endorsing it. More subtly, they first sent an email with IPO pricing details, then quickly retracted it saying "the details were incorrect," showing how anxious they are.
I'm not saying this company is no good. What I mean is, when the smartest people in capital choose this moment to convert their chips into cash and secure their gains, while retail investors are still chasing AI concepts with leverage in the secondary market, putting these two things together just feels off.
The top of a bubble is never popped by a single needle; it's a quiet exit by a group of insiders. $BTC and tech stocks have resonated in this wave—don't just remember the times they rose together.核心摘要： 调查风波引发单日市值蒸发1900亿美元，但预测市场只认财报数字。当前 Yes 报价 82¢，面对高于华尔街共识的 2.53 美元门槛，英伟达的历史“超预期惯性”与短期情绪冲击正展开交锋。 结合 OKX 市场规则与最新基本面信息，本文为您拆解这笔交易的胜率与赔率。 一、 规则拆解：剥离情绪，锚定数字 · 结算标准：英伟达 11 月 17 日财报中，non-GAAP EPS 必须严格 > 2.53 美元，结算 Yes。 · 兜底机制：若官方无数据，依次用 Seeking Alpha、GAAP EPS 替代；若均无，结算 No。 · 核心结论：股价跌多少、国会是否介入调查，均不影响结算。判定标准仅看 Q3 单季财务数字。 当前市场定价：Yes 82¢ / No 19¢。 二、 核心博弈：门槛偏高，但历史惯性强劲 1. 门槛难度：高于主流共识 当前华尔街对英伟达该季度 non-GAAP EPS 的共识约为 2.47 美元（MarketBeat/Benzinga），MarketWatch 共识甚至低至 2.36 美元。2.53 美元的结算线，要求英伟达必须再次超预期。 2. 历史支撑24小时爆仓数据里藏着一个刺眼的反差：$BTC 和 $ETH 的多头清算分别达到2.9亿与4.6亿美元，而空头一侧仅4348万与5168万。这不是普通的杠杆清洗，而是一场针对追涨盘的定向收割。🔍 拆开时间轴更能看清节奏。$BTC 12小时窗口内多头清算653万美元、空头1924万美元，说明上一轮下探先打掉了高位接多的仓位；但拉到24小时，多头占比接近87%。$ETH 如出一辙，24小时5.1亿总清算中多头占4.6亿。换句话说，短线反弹不断制造"突破在即"的错觉，然后把追进去的多单一批批扫掉。 真正值得警惕的是资金费率的反复摆动。费率来回穿越，意味着多空双方都在加杠杆对赌，市场处于高烈度拉锯而非单边趋势。这种结构下，波动本身就是收割工具——两侧仓位被反复消耗，而不是某一方彻底认输。$BTC 1小时多空清算几乎持平（825美元对8.01万美元），正是这种平衡脆弱性的缩影。 小市值资产的节奏则完全独立。$AKE 24小时清算仅112万美元，1小时多头清算5.96万美元、空头为零，波动自成体系，与主流币的清算潮不同步。这提示一个常被忽略的点：当大币在震荡中反复清洗杠杆时，独立小币的仓位结构反If subsequent inflation data, interest rate expectations, or sentiment in US tech stocks improve, risk assets may recover simultaneously. However, the transmission of macro improvements to altcoins usually experiences a lag.A piece of news overshadowed by AI robot reports but worth noting for those in storage: Elon Musk's Terafab has set a target of producing 700,000 storage wafers per month, a scale approaching Samsung's entire DRAM production capacity.
The market narrative these past two weeks has been "storage supply shortage, price hikes expected." But what's really happening on the supply side is: Musk is entering the field, TSMC is being pulled by Nvidia to produce 3D DRAM, even the foundry king is squeezing in.
No matter how hot the demand story is, it can't withstand everyone rushing in to expand production simultaneously. This is how the cyclical nature of the storage industry works: price hikes attract capacity, and capacity eventually crushes the price hikes.
Short-term sentiment can keep pushing storage stocks up, but I prefer to note these long-term supply signals amid the frenzy first. Do you think this round of storage is a real shortage, or just another pre-expansion frenzy?The AVAX price retraced half of the surge from last night's news, but the positions in the contracts have barely moved.
According to OKEx spot, before 8 PM last night, the price was around 8.03. After the NYSE news broke, it surged to 9.011 by midnight today, rising nearly 1 dollar. It is now around 8.56, down almost 5% from the peak, having given back about half of the gains.
Volume dispersed first. From 8 PM to midnight last night, spot trading volume was 6.41 million USD; from midnight to noon today, over 12 hours, it totaled only 2.63 million.
The contracts side is different. OKEx AVAX perpetual contract open interest was 13.24 million USD at 8 PM last night, peaked at 15.62 million at 1 AM today, and now stands at 15.06 million. Roughly converted to coin quantity at the spot price then, it’s only about 2% less than the peak. The funding rate has dropped from 0.01% at midnight and is now estimated to be slightly below zero.
My view is that most of the long positions that rushed in last night are still held. With the funding rate near zero, the incentive to chase longs has faded, so the price drop hasn’t significantly reduced open interest. With so many positions clustered between 8 and 9, the next move could be amplified: if it falls back to around 8 where the rally started last night, these longs will face pressure; if it climbs back above 9, shorts will be the first to feel the pain.
$AVAX After reading, I noted three things. 1. Glassnode data shows that by the end of October, among the more than 300 tokens it tracks, only about 12% of short-term holders sold at a profit, whereas at the end of September, this ratio was about 80%. What concerns me more is that the short-term margin for error has been compressed: the proportion of profitable exits has sharply dropped, making it harder to mask judgment errors through broad market gains.
2. I wouldn’t interpret this as "all other holders are at a loss," because this statistic is about whether sellers made a profit at the time of selling, not the unrealized gains or losses of all holdings. If you don’t look carefully at the denominator, it’s easy to mistakenly extrapolate partial data as the entire market’s ledger.
3. My speculation is that if the state of selling at a loss continues, short-term participants may become more hesitant, and the support for altcoins will also be affected, but this cannot directly infer the price direction. I’ll stop my list here for now. What would everyone add as a fourth point: trading volume, or the selling behavior of long-term holders?If a sector shows continuous volume increase and coins with relatively higher strength, it indicates that funds might be testing that direction. A broad rally without leading coins usually has limited sustainability.If stablecoin inflows increase and spot buying improves, the quality of the rebound will be higher. If the rise mainly relies on contracts, the sustainability is often weaker.265 bitcoins, about 24.85 million USD, ARKB moved into Coinbase Prime in the early morning of the 9th.
The amount is as small as pocket change. But last week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of 1.28 billion USD. Such moves of transferring inventory to custody exchanges are usually to prepare for redemptions, not to accumulate at a low price.
My judgment in one sentence: moving coins on-chain to exchanges is for redemption, not for price support. If the US and Iran go smoothly, CL WTI crude oil will still fall, at least below $70
Why do I say this?
Do you think the current price of $85.4 per barrel is low? No way. After the memorandum of understanding was signed on June 19, do you remember where US oil prices fell to? From $91 straight down to $67, this is the oil price standard after the US-Iran risk was resolved.
Now the oil price is still very high, very high. If Iran is willing to make concessions first, dilute enriched uranium to 3.67%, then open the Strait of Hormuz, clear mines to ensure navigation, then the US will release frozen funds, lift the maritime blockade, and everything will be fine.
Crude oil can be shorted temporarily because this time both sides seem quite satisfied with the conditions. The goal this time is not mediation but a complete resolution of all hidden risks, a win-win ending for both sides. Whether it succeeds or not will be decided this month.
Once an agreement is reached, the following will happen:
1. Crude oil prices will plummet below 70 or even lower
2. Energy inflation will be fully lifted
3. The global high interest rates influenced by oil prices will gradually stop raising rates and prepare to cut rates
4. Bitcoin will surge, preparing for rate cut expectations
Shorting crude oil at 85 definitely carries too much risk. I tried shorting at 87 the first time, and at 91 the second time, with a total position not exceeding 30%, leverage not exceeding 10X, stop loss at 96, and looking down to $70.Bitcoin briefly fell below $74,000 on Monday, reaching a low of around $73,500, before rebounding with the US stock market to about $75,000. Major coins like Ethereum also came under pressure, with over $1 billion liquidated in 24 hours, mostly long positions.
Nvidia-related news triggered a tech stock risk-off sentiment that directly impacted the crypto market.
As an absolute barometer of AI and tech risk appetite, Nvidia's negative news first dampened stock market sentiment, then through leverage and sentiment channels pushed down cryptocurrencies. Political uncertainty has increased after the US midterm elections, combined with stronger-than-expected data, further narrowing the space for rate cuts. The dollar and real interest rates have strengthened, putting pressure on BTC/ETH. Crypto, as a high-beta asset, is the first to reflect tightening liquidity and declining risk appetite.
Volatility in tech stocks (especially Nvidia) quickly transmits to the crypto space because both heavily rely on the "AI narrative" and risk capital. The sharp drop in oil prices alleviates some inflation concerns, and the violent rebound in US stocks provides short-term liquidity support to crypto. Geopolitical tensions (Middle East energy, cyber warfare) will raise risk-off sentiment, but so far there is no broad risk-off buying surge into crypto.
Currently, "political uncertainty + tech stock sentiment volatility + macro data window" jointly suppress risk appetite. The crypto market acts more like an "amplifier" following the US tech stock sector rather than an independent trend. In the short term, if US tech stocks face further regulatory or Nvidia-related shocks, crypto prices are likely to test support again; if tonight's CPI cools down, it may provide a rebound window.Seeing "turning losses into profits," my first reaction is to look for the source of the profit. When showing this kind of news to newcomers, I want to make it clear: making money on paper and strengthening the core business are not the same thing.
Trump Media and Technology Group's net profit for the third quarter was $409.7 million, compared to a net loss of $54.8 million in the same period last year. This quarter's profit was mainly driven by cryptocurrency gains. 📌 Using these numbers as an example, turning losses into profits means the net profit has changed, but it does not directly prove that the main business has improved, nor can net profit be directly equated with cash inflow.
My judgment is that this news is more important for observing the company's exposure to crypto assets, but it is not enough to judge the overall industry outlook. First, the profit mainly comes from cryptocurrency gains; second, the material does not explain whether the gains have been realized. If future profits still rely on this kind of income, then profits may be more affected by market conditions, which is my speculation. Newcomers are most likely to take profit headlines as a reason to chase the rally; I would first look at the profit composition before discussing sustainability.What is more worrisome about altcoins right now, I think, is not how much they have dropped, but that short-term participants are losing money and exiting.
Glassnode data shows that at the end of October, among the more than 300 tokens it tracks, only about 12% of short-term holders sold at a profit, whereas at the end of September this proportion was about 80%. This change makes me more cautious: it reflects realized losses and cannot be directly taken as proof that the market has "bottomed out."
My understanding is that loss-taking sales will reduce short-term participants' willingness to continue experimenting. If this experience persists, new capital may be more hesitant to step in, making sentiment recovery in altcoins more difficult. This is my speculation; one indicator cannot be used to script the future market.
Another aspect is coverage. The 300+ tokens provide a broad observation window, but aggregate figures do not indicate that every project is in the same situation, nor that all holders are at a loss. When I look at this kind of data, I fear mistaking the market's average temperature for a diagnosis of each coin.
Therefore, I treat it as a signal of cooling short-term risk appetite, not a countdown to bottom-fishing. What I want to observe next is whether the proportion of profitable sales can continue to recover, rather than assuming a sentiment shift based on a single rebound.SOL, XRP, LINK, AVAX, UNI and other actively traded coins usually show recovery earlier than small-cap altcoins. But this does not mean they are necessarily stronger; it just means funds tend to return first to positions with good depth. @山寨阿道夫 Because funds usually first recover Bitcoin, then observe Ethereum, and only finally may rotate to altcoins. The current market is still digesting ETF outflows and liquidation pressure; even if altcoins rebound, it is more like a localized recovery rather than a full reversal.Bitcoin and Ethereum have stopped falling first, only then do altcoins have a chance to recover. What’s truly worth watching is whether the order book depth has recovered, whether slippage has narrowed, and whether trading volume keeps up during the rebound. A rebound without liquidity is often just a brief respite.37 European banks have joined forces to issue a euro stablecoin, with the license obtained last month and the whitepaper approved, aiming for issuance as early as the end of November.
The euro stablecoin market has grown ninefold in two years: from only €50 million at the start of 2024 to €450 million in January this year.
But the market is still too small: The Qivalis alliance expanded from 9 banks in September last year to 37 banks covering 15 countries by May this year, including ING, BNP, BBVA, and UniCredit.
On October 14, the Dutch central bank approved the electronic money license, allowing issuance under MiCA regulations with 1:1 reserves, and 60% of the reserves of major issuers must be held in banks.
The issuance path is also set: first launch on Ethereum, then expand to multiple chains. The whitepaper has been submitted, and the Dutch central bank will review it within 20 working days, with issuance possible as early as the end of November.
I believe the banks' entry is not to compete for USDT business, but to compete for euro settlement rights: if the euro stablecoin does not grow, European on-chain settlements will have to continue using dollar coins.
Failure conditions: if the whitepaper is rejected by the Dutch central bank and issuance is delayed until 2027, or if the total market cap of the euro stablecoin falls below €400 million after launch, this judgment will be void.
Which side are you on: can the euro stablecoin issued by banks take market share from dollar stablecoins, or will it be issued but unused?
$EURC $USDC
#美国加密监管：《CLARITY法案》推进受阻，401(k)规则进入最终审查 Tether froze 5 Ethereum addresses, totaling about 24.35 million USDT. The nature of this is worth discussing.
Let's look at the details first. These 5 addresses are not new; they were active in 2021 and 2023, with the funds lying dormant on-chain for two to three years before being frozen. One of them had interactions with a wallet labeled as "phishing" and "pig-butchering scam."
Mechanistically, one thing to understand: USDT is not Bitcoin; it lacks a decentralized consensus layer. It is simply a ledger entry on Tether's books. The issuer has a blacklist; once an address is added, the USDT in that address cannot be moved or exchanged. Having the private key is useless because what changes is not the private key but the ledger.
Why now? The only confirmed factor is the time span: addresses from 2021 are only being dealt with today. This fits a certain pattern: scam funds first lie dormant, then after the heat dies down, they are transferred in layers, and action is taken only at the last hop. 24.35 million is not a huge amount, but handling 5 addresses simultaneously indicates the chain of transactions has been mapped out.
Judgment-wise, the impact on $ETH price is close to zero. The frozen USDT will not flow into the market and is not selling pressure. The real signal lies elsewhere: stablecoins are increasingly resembling bank accounts, with transaction history, freezes, and cooperation with investigations.
What is worth pondering is that when "your money" is controlled by a company's compliance department deciding whether it can be moved, what exactly are we holding? The part that remains inactive long-term may face risks not from price volatility but from usability.The governance of IBC has changed hands, but that doesn't mean cross-chain volume has increased today. On November 9, the official press release from Cosmos and the Interchain Foundation confirmed: the cross-chain communication protocol IBC has become a project under LF Decentralized Trust of the Linux Foundation. The code remains open, Cosmos Labs continues as the maintainer, and the other two are Datachain and OpenZeppelin. The press release states that since its launch in 2021, transaction volume has exceeded $50 billion.
The protocol remains, but the maintenance list and trademark have been moved to a more neutral position. The sponsor list includes Google Cloud and some financial institution figures, which is a statement of support, not additional settlements in the production environment. ATOM will not automatically gain more use cases just because governance changed hands.
Let's set the observation window to the first quarter of next year. If by then no new institutional projects have connected to IBC in the production environment, this will only count as a governance relocation. If the official withdraws contributions or the core maintenance team pulls out, the claim of a neutral standard won't hold. Snapshot around 12:14 Beijing time, Binance ATOM about $1.392, 24 hours approximately +5.4%.
$ATOM
#ATOM #Cosmos #IBC A recent glaring divergence: the Nasdaq has staged a recovery rally thanks to the drop in crude oil and easing geopolitical tensions, but BTC remains flat, showing no sign of following the rise.
In the past week, BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.28 billion, with institutional funds continuing to exit; Coinbase Premium has been negative for 61 consecutive days, and domestic spot buying in the U.S. remains weak, with no incremental funds willing to step in. On-exchange liquidity is also shrinking, with stablecoin supply down about $4.5 billion over the week, plus over $1 billion in long liquidations. The current situation is: no one is absorbing spot, and leverage is being passively cleared.
This rebound in U.S. stocks has its own narrative—trading on risk easing and tech stock valuation repair. This arbitrage benefit does not transmit to crypto. The crypto market is currently struggling on its own, still digesting internal selling pressure and ongoing deleveraging, with no extra funds to resonate with the outside market.
Previously, when U.S. stocks rallied, BTC would follow suit because they shared the same pool of risk appetite funds. Now it's different; funds are clearly diverging. The positive momentum in U.S. stocks cannot support the continuous selling pressure in crypto!
If even a big surge in U.S. stocks can't lift BTC, what else can be expected to save the market?
Without signals of spot capital returning, this weak pattern of lacking follow-through is hard to reverse quickly.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK Seeing such a large short position, many people's first reaction is "big players are bearish, a drop is coming." I, on the other hand, first raise a question: daring to bet on a direction does not mean the direction is correct, and high leverage is not proof of strong judgment.
This time, Core Trader 29 newly opened or added to a short position on XYZ100, using 30x leverage, with a nominal position of about $100,000. Thinking about it the other way, I prefer to see it as a highly sensitive risk exposure rather than a bearish signal.
There are two reasons: roughly calculated at 30x, if the price rises 1% in the opposite direction, the corresponding loss is about 30% of the initial margin, not including fees, leaving very little room for error in judgment. Another reason is that this monitoring does not show the wallet's full assets; the short position could also be used for hedging, which is my speculation and cannot be directly taken as a unilateral bearish bet.
What I want to see next is how it adjusts its position, rather than using the nominal amount of $100,000 to bolster confidence in directional judgment. The retail long-short ratio for SOL surged to 3.72, while the large holders' ratio is only 1.50!
OKX perpetual 1-hour (as of 12:00 Beijing time): BTC overall account long-short ratio is about 2.84, elite about 1.96; ETH overall about 3.50, elite about 2.25. SOL is even more extreme, retail about 3.72 versus large holders about 1.50, hitting a new 24-hour high — the early session 75,000 level couldn't hold, retail investors are still aggressively piling longs, while large holders are clearly more restrained. Spot BTC is about $74,632 (12:25 Beijing time, Coinbase). Chart source: OKX.
$BTC $ETH $SOL$BTC The whole market is waiting for tonight's CPI, can Bitcoin still surge up???
Brothers, last night there was good news from the US-Iran side. Logically, risk assets should have surged, but Bitcoin didn't move at all. This shows the market currently doesn't care about geopolitics; everyone's eyes are fixed on the US CPI data at 21:30 tonight.
I tend to believe: after the data is released tonight, Bitcoin has a chance to surge up.
First, the easing of US-Iran tensions knocked down oil prices, significantly reducing inflation pressure; CPI expectations were already trending down, with gasoline prices dropping over 4% in October, so the data is very likely to look good. After Bitcoin spiked to 73333 over the weekend, it didn't go down further, indicating there is capital buying at the bottom.
Last night, the Nasdaq rose 2.7%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index soared 7%, risk appetite is already maxed out, Bitcoin is just a bit slow.
But don't overlook a hidden risk: last night US stocks rose, but Bitcoin didn't follow, and ETF funds are still flowing out. So tonight is not a blind surge; the key is whether Bitcoin can quickly stand above 76500 after the data is released.
Trading strategy:
Aggressive brothers can enter a base position at the current price; conservative brothers wait for a pullback to 74400-74000 to enter in batches. If the data causes a surge, first watch the 76500 resistance zone, and if it holds, then talk about 80000. $BTC Many people think that when Bitcoin consolidates sideways, it's an opportunity for altcoins, but this time Ethereum is also weakening, and ETH/BTC is under pressure.
When the major coins themselves are diverging, it's even harder for altcoins to strengthen independently.
The more realistic sequence now is: first see if Bitcoin can hold steady, then see if Ethereum can recover, and only then might rotation to altcoins occur.
Skipping this order and directly betting on altcoins catching up carries higher risk. How could you bear to let my tears flow into the sea
The feelings I gave can never be recovered
How could you bear to let my love flow into the sea
Heartbreaking memories one after another
I hope they never come back again😭
(ó﹏ò｡)
$DOGE held for more than 5 months, yesterday I made a tough decision and finally cut it, I won’t touch DOGE anymore, it was just a past belief, without Musk it’s nothing.
(′へ`、 )
$AKE has been rising for several days in a row, but one sharp drop wiped it out, it really was a bull trap, lately they like to lure bulls, for something like AKE with such heavy market control, better not trade it, just watch. If you really can’t resist, open an isolated margin, set take profit and stop loss properly, and be prepared to lose it all.
╮(￣⊿￣)╭
$BTC Bitcoin is continuing to drift down quietly, let’s see if 70,000 breaks, if it falls back to the 60,000s, the bull run is probably over. Or you could say this BTC bull run itself was a bull trap, turning me from a short to a long, then liquidating me several times...
ʕ •ᴥ•ʔ
Trade rationally, don’t get carried away, meow!
(/"≡ _ ≡)=Previously, many believed that spot ETFs would continuously bring in buying pressure, but last week Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of about $1.28 billion, and the cumulative net flow for the year has also turned negative.
This indicates that institutional funds do not only flow in without outflows. When macro pressures, regulatory uncertainties, and tech stock volatility occur simultaneously, ETFs can also become an exit channel for funds.
However, this should be viewed separately: outflows are concentrated in certain products and do not mean all institutions are retreating simultaneously.
If ETF outflows slow down next, market sentiment may gradually recover. Attention⚠️, for the next half month forget about storage and semiconductors
The focus will be on Anthropic, whose volatility in the next month will be much greater than that of storage, semiconductors, and Bitcoin.
The current estimated issuance price range for Anthropic is: $70 to $80 per share, the final price is not yet determined.
Let's look at the relationship between the price volatility range of spcx and skhy in this year's US stock market listing and their IPO prices.
spaceX: spcx once rose 70% above the issuance price right after listing; this was in June during the peak of the US stock bull market sentiment and is not recommended for reference. Two instances of rising 30% above the issuance price represent a high premium range, after which the price declined.
A drop of 20% below the issuance price is the bottom, then the price returns to the issuance price, with brief phases dipping 10% below and rising 10% above the issuance price representing short-term peaks and bottoms.
skhy (Hynix ADR): two instances of rising 30% above the issuance price are sell zones, followed by price declines.
One instance of dropping 20% below the issuance price is a negative premium zone, after which the price returns to the issuance price, with brief phases dipping 10% below and rising 10% above the issuance price representing short-term peaks and bottoms.
Summary: For Anthropic's listing, a rise of about 30% above the issuance price is a high premium zone; please sell to short.
A drop of about 20% below the issuance price is a negative premium; please buy to go long.
There will be small opportunities during brief phases dipping 10% below and rising 10% above the issuance price representing short-term peaks and bottoms. #美国10月CPI今晚公布，加息预期能否改变？ Still on the road to breaking even, now when I see “whales increasing holdings,” I no longer dare to take it as a reassurance. It’s not that I don’t hope for a rise, but I’m afraid of mistaking a phase-specific buying spree for continuous support.
Bitmine disclosed that in the past week it increased holdings by 9,587 ETH, with a total holding of 6,070,092 ETH, accounting for 4.97% of the total supply; Tom Lee previously emphasized that 5% is the hard upper limit for holdings. This makes me cautious about short-term new buying of $ETH: the closer to the limit, the more the company’s continuous buying approaches its end; but stopping buying doesn’t equal selling, so it can’t be directly interpreted as selling pressure. The data also doesn’t show how much other funds can fill the gap, so I don’t want to speculate.
One thing I’ve learned is: when looking at how much whales have bought, you also have to see how much longer they can keep buying. It’s okay if breaking even takes a bit longer, just don’t rush to comfort yourself with a story 💪 For friends also on the road to breaking even, how’s your mindset lately? Going forward, are you more focused on Bitmine stopping buying, or on whether new funds will take over?Community voting asks whether Bitcoin can rise, and I always want to follow up: do you think it will rise, or do you simply hope it will? It's easy to click support in a vote, but making a prediction in the market requires factoring in capital costs, which changes the flavor. However, odds don't represent the entire community's view; the amount of money and market depth also affect them. I'm just curious, if the voting area is full of bullish sentiment but the prediction market is quiet, where did all those loud voices just now go?Laying the $SSV candlestick chart under the surgical light, this is not a recovery but reperfusion arrhythmia after myocardial ischemia. A 5.09% rise in 24 hours looks like blood pressure recovery, but the short-term RSI has already surged to 68.1, and the 1-hour RSI >64 triggers a sell signal—myocardial enzymes haven't peaked yet, but the ECG already shows premature ventricular contractions; chasing longs is like continuing rapid fluid infusion for a patient with volume overload.
What really needs to be opened up and examined is the Bollinger Bands. The short-term price position is at 95%, only 0.4% from the upper band, but 7.2% from the lower band, a typical sign of elevated stroke volume with afterload at its limit; the mid-term is even more dangerous, positioned at 116%, having crossed 1.1% above the middle band, and 9.3% from the lower band, like a coronary artery overstretched—still open on the surface but with a torn intima. The long-term RSI at 61.8 is in the neutral zone, indicating basic vital signs have not collapsed, but short-term decompensation occurs first, and local hypoperfusion will propagate systemically.
The surgical plan is not to open the chest immediately but to wait for a pullback to the resistance zone before establishing a short position. Current price $2.19, entry at $2.26, which is 3.4% above the current price, waiting for the pseudo-systolic pressure to return near $2.26 before clamping; first target $1.98, 9.5% below current price, second target $2.00, 8.5% below current price, first clearing the lesion, then observing if distal blood flow recovers; stop loss $2.51, 14.6% above current price, once breached it means heavy bleeding and immediate chest closure is required. This risk-reward structure is like controlling blood pressure before bypass surgery, not gambling on direction but waiting for a hemodynamic window to operate.
📉 Short:
Entry: $2.26 (current price +3.4%)
Take Profit 1: $1.98 (-9.5%)
Take Profit 2: $2.00 (-8.5%)
Stop Loss: $2.51 (+14.6%)
The lesion is located: short-term at 0.4% from the top, mid-term out of bounds by 1.1%, RSI 68.1 is just the alarm on the monitor, the real arrhythmia is outside the Bollinger Bands. Wait for the pullback to $2.26, the pseudo-systolic pressure, then clamp directly.Ethereum is now running two economies that no longer speak to each other. On-chain, the network is setting records: mainnet has averaged 2.16 million daily transactions this year, an all-time high and up 51% year over year, while average daily active addresses have climbed to 899,000, also a record. On the price chart, the story inverts. $ETH has broken below the closely watched 2,385 support level, and spot Ethereum ETFs bled roughly $365 million in a single week. That gap between usage and valWhen liquidity is poor, the price drop and actual loss may not match. You see a 5% drop, but the slippage when selling could be even greater.
This is also why accounts heavily invested in altcoins are particularly passive during downturns. Because once you need to reduce positions, it might be hard to find a good execution price.
If the market continues to fluctuate, liquidity remains an important point to watch. Those that can repair liquidity first are usually the ones with active trading, good depth, and high capital attention.
For ordinary participants, light positions are safer than heavy ones, and scaling out is more prudent than going all-in. The proposed block size limit increase from 2MB to 8MB didn't initially excite me with the prospect of doubled throughput; instead, I wondered: who will use the extra capacity, and who will bear the cost? Seeing this news about $ZEC, I prefer to view it as an opportunity to improve user experience rather than a direct price benefit.
This is the NU8 upgrade plan proposed by developers, scheduled for implementation by the end of January 2027, involving adjustments to the Tachyon shielded pool, post-quantum capabilities, and wallets. The proposal is not finalized yet, so I will factor this uncertainty into my expectations and won't rush to label the technical roadmap as a success.
For me, the conditions worth looking forward to are: if the scaling combined with the new shielded pool can truly make privacy transactions smoother and keep node burdens manageable, then the likelihood of ordinary users continuing to use it will increase. My guess is that this will improve long-term odds more than simply expanding capacity, since empty blocks won't automatically generate demand.
Conversely, if demand doesn't keep pace but operating costs rise first, the benefits of scaling might not cover the costs. The news can initially boost sentiment, but the actual utility needs to be verified over time. What I want to see next is the real load and node operation performance, reminding myself not to mistake the capacity limit for adoption rate.My first reaction to this message: betting once on inflation cooling down and expecting a reversal is front-running, not following the trend. It dampens the recovery expectations a bit, which I think is necessary.
CoinDesk reported that before the US October inflation data was released, Bitcoin's price was below $75,000; analysts believe that sustained recovery depends on liquidity improvement and spot ETF demand. This aligns exactly with my first principle: watch the money, not just the news. Reduced macro pressure does not mean that supporting funds are already in place.
Second, don't treat expectations as confirmation. The CPI hasn't been released yet, and including recovery in advance can easily mistake wishes for trends. Third, look at sustainability, not guessing turning points. If the data alleviates inflation concerns but there is no follow-up demand from funds, then in my view, optimistic sentiment still lacks support.
The trend is the best friend; I will continue to observe liquidity and ETF demand and won't rush to label a reversal.