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#TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profit hits a record high 🔥 TSMC delivers a historic performance, but will the market continue to rise? Not necessarily!
💰 In Q3 2026, TSMC's revenue reached NT$1.494 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 50.9%, setting a new record. More importantly, the company raised its full-year USD revenue growth forecast to 44%. Demand for AI chips remains strong, and this performance is indeed impressive.
⚠️ But folks, stock trading is never just about past results; it’s about whether the future can be even better. When the market has already priced in AI growth, advanced process demand, and earnings beating expectations, just good news alone may not be enough to push the stock price higher.
📊 What’s truly worth watching next is the management’s outlook on AI demand, advanced process capacity, capital expenditure, and profit margins. If future growth guidance continues to exceed expectations, the market will have new room for imagination; if the outlook isn’t exciting enough, there could be a sell-the-news reaction.
🧠 Remember: good earnings don’t guarantee a stock price rise; the key is whether actual performance can surpass the standards the market has already set.
So, folks, do you think TSMC’s results can keep fueling the AI rally, or has the market already priced in too much? Let’s discuss in the comments!$STRK unlocking has no impact, the whales have already fully controlled the marketOn October 15, five minutes after the Seoul stock market opened, the SIDECAR circuit breaker mechanism was triggered. Programmatic sell orders were forcibly paused. The KOSPI plummeted over 7% that day, approaching -8% intraday. It was the sixth consecutive bearish candle. Samsung Electronics fell 9.4%, SK Hynix dropped over 11%, and the combined market value lost by the two companies equaled a quarter of the Korean stock market's gains for the year. Over in Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 fell 5.12%. Kioxia plunged 13%, SoftBank dropped 8.5%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.1%, the Shanghai Composite dropped 1.75%, and the CSI 300 fell 1.4%. The Korea Financial Services Commission urgently convened a quadripartite meeting. The Finance Minister, Central Bank Governor, Financial Supervisory Service Chairman, and Financial Supervisory Service Director were all present, concluding with four words: "All available tools." The last time there was an emergency response at this level was in August 2024, triggered by a global flash crash caused by yen arbitrage trading. But that incident lasted one day; this time it has lasted five days. Since the June peak, the KOSPI has dropped 30%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has declined for six consecutive trading days. What exactly happened? October 10: The 4F² Bomb from ChangXin ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) President Cao Kanyu announced at the Shanghai Semiconductor Forum that the 4F² architecture DRAM has made "critical progress," with DDR5 server memory modules to be launched by the end of 2026. 4F² is the next-generation storage unit for DRAM #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
TSMC Q3 Net Profit Hits Record High: The "Shovel Seller" Dividend in the AI Computing Era
TSMC's Q3 financial report once again proves that the semiconductor cycle has not receded but has entered a structurally prosperous phase dominated by AI. Revenue reached 1.49 trillion TWD, a year-on-year increase of 50.9%, and net profit was 763.1 billion TWD, up 68.7% year-on-year. The profit growth rate far exceeded revenue growth, indicating simultaneous improvement in profitability quality and pricing power.
Breaking it down, the growth engine is clear: the 2nm process now accounts for 8% of wafer revenue, and advanced processes total 79%. This means TSMC not only secured AI chip orders but also locked in high-end customers through technological differentiation. Flagship products from giants like NVIDIA, AMD, and Apple almost all rely on its advanced capacity, with AI demand continuously translating into solid performance.
What is more noteworthy is the signal behind the "better-than-expected" results. The market originally worried about weak consumer electronics and overseas capacity expansion dragging down gross margins, but the financial report shows AI chip demand is sufficient to offset headwinds. As the global leader in wafer foundry, TSMC's performance is a thermometer of the investment heat in AI infrastructure.
However, the record high also comes with concerns: geopolitical issues, overseas factory costs, and high capital expenditures for advanced processes remain long-term challenges. But in the short term, as long as the AI computing arms race continues, TSMC remains the biggest "shovel seller." This financial report is not only a summary of Q3 but also strong evidence that the AI era dividend is still ongoing.
#OKXICE向SEC申请推出代币化股票交易平台 Today $OKB plummeted, so why do I dare to buy the dip?
Because its potential is huge. I'm not just talking about X Layer, but also OKX's current reform direction.
Last year, they fixed the total supply at 21 million, solving its scarcity issue; this year, the reform of financial infrastructure addresses the problem of actual usage:
1. Reassigning fee discounts and VIP privileges back to OKB, and these must be unavailable if you don't hold it;
2. Bringing OKB into DeFi staking and liquidity scenarios, though staking does not equal net demand, as leverage and liquidation risks remain;
3. Clarifying the value return mechanism so that all position holders can benefit from the development of the OKX ecosystem.
The third point is what I care about most. There is currently no evidence that OKX will revert, but I believe that under the trend led by $HYPE, which buys back tokens with 99% of profits, and with CEO Xu always viewing $BNB as his biggest competitor, OKX will eventually catch up.
Which privilege do you most want OKX to add to OKB? Fee discounts, ecosystem qualifications, more DeFi, or a buyback mechanism? Feel free to share in the comments.[Old Leek Observation] Uniswap launches new trading mechanism! ETH/USDC fees are no longer fixed, and the value logic of $UNI is also worth revisiting
This time, Uniswap did not release a roadmap but deployed new features directly on the Ethereum mainnet.
On October 14, Uniswap v4's VolatilePair Hook officially went live, initially supporting ETH/USDC. Unlike traditional pools that charge fixed fees, the new mechanism adjusts buy and sell fees separately based on price changes.
Why design it this way?
For example: if ETH suddenly surges on other trading platforms but the price in the Uniswap pool hasn't caught up, arbitrageurs might exploit the temporary price difference to buy cheap ETH. After the pool price is pulled back, part of the value has already been taken by arbitrage trades, causing losses for liquidity providers.
The idea behind VolatilePair is to let fees follow market changes and add temporary fees to some price-reversing trades, aiming to keep part of the value within the liquidity pool.
Uniswap officials state that its volatile trading pairs have accumulated over $500 billion in transaction volume this year. If the new mechanism can improve LP returns in real trading, its subsequent adoption could influence the design of more pools.
DeFi competition is shifting from fighting for liquidity to competing for the value created by liquidity. Whoever can keep funds longer has a better chance to build a long-term advantage.Capital showdown: BTC fills the gap, ETH disrupts, SOL picks up bargains💸
$BTC
24h contract net inflow 194 million, spot +44.7 million, short-term double red. But weekly still running 2.8 billion outflow, monthly leaking 5.3 billion, 12h withdraws another 102 million. Short-term looks like a late session fill, temperature just warmed a bit, don’t mistake it for a reversal.🧪
$ETH
Contract +57.55 million, spot -110 million. Contracts want to bet on the bottom, spot is exiting, no handshake between the two. Spot keeps selling, contracts keep adding hard, usually gets dragged by spot. Rushing now risks getting slapped from both sides.✋
$SOL
Contract -16.2 thousand, basically flat; spot +33.39 million, someone quietly accumulating. Bullish but no leverage, slowly hoarding spot is safer. Weekly spot +20.06 million, the only mainstream turning positive.🌱
Summary: one fills the gap, one fights each other, one picks up bargains. But weekly and monthly still net outflows, big money hasn’t dared to go all in. There’s a shadow of a rebound, reversal is still early.🕯️ #US CPI unexpectedly rises to 3.7%, tonight PPI faces another test #TSMC Q3 net profit beats expectations, profits hit record high $SOL dropped from around 120 in early October to 102. On the hourly chart, there are three significant volume spikes at lows, which are more intuitive to observe together than on the daily chart.
On October 9 at 1 AM, the low was 105.71 with a trading volume of $34.2 million that hour. On October 13 at 8 AM, the low was 101.69 with $45.8 million traded. On October 15 at 10 AM, the low was 100.62 with $50.1 million traded. The median hourly trading volume over the past 10 days is $7.4 million, so these three spikes are more than 4 to nearly 7 times that median.
During the same period, there was no crowding on the contract side. The average funding rate over the last 30 periods was only 0.0028%, with 6 periods negative and only 4 hitting the 0.01% cap. Leverage was not pushing upward aggressively; the volume spikes were entirely due to price drops.
Each low was lower than the last, and volume increased each time, yet the price never broke below 100. For the first two lows, the price closed 3 hours later at 109.88 and 107.48, which is 3.9% and 5.7% above the lows. The most recent low moved slower, closing 3 hours later at 101.47, only 0.8% above the low, with the current price at 102.42.
The 100 to 102 range has absorbed three volume-driven dips, so the bullish bias remains unchanged when the price retests this area.
Looking back at the hourly chart during the dips, volume spikes followed by closes above 102 indicate buying hours. If the volume spike closes below 100, this area no longer acts as support.$AKE is about to start a new major upward wave again?
As one of the most volatile altcoins this year, it has brought joy to some and sorrow to others. Today it’s moving again. I think the main reason is the large token unlock scheduled for the 21st. Many previous rallies were driven by token unlocks attracting short sellers to enter and get squeezed.
Whether it can continue its previous style this time is uncertain, but there is definitely selling pressure above and quite a few trapped positions. You can lightly chase it; who knows, maybe a miracle will happen? $BTC
#US CPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, tonight PPI faces another test #TSMC Q3 net profit beats expectations, profits hit record highs #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight $ETH Three consecutive bearish candles, but the reasons for the decline are not the same.
On the same day of decline, $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL each have their own sources of selling pressure.
For $BTC, it's a sentiment retreat:
No large holders collectively withdrawing on-chain, and there is still support near the 400-day moving average.
For $ETH, it's capital moving:
ETF has continuous net outflows, wallet balances are migrating out, indicating holders are actively reducing positions.
For $SOL, the pressure is on the contract side:
Perpetual shorts are increasing, leverage is pushing the price down, while spot outflows are relatively limited.
In other words, the one that fell sharply did not see much chip turnover.
The one that fell steadily is where money is truly flowing out.
#BTC spot ETF net outflows again, can institutional buying recover?
#$BTC $ETH Tonight's script of "having to kill another wave" is still playing out, and this OP trade is the harshest footnote. Just like BTC and ETH, the rebound is all fake moves, and the altcoin focus keeps shifting downward. Making big money relies on courage, securing profits relies on cheapness, and maneuvering a sevenfold floating profit must be an art.
$OP 50x short position +727.90%! Opened at 0.15366 short, currently marked at 0.13129, this wave is taking off directly (downward) 💰
Position is near 0.131, the previous low support zone. OP, as a highly volatile altcoin, with shallow order book + 50x leverage, even a slight reverse pullback (1.5% to 0.133) is enough to swallow a large amount of floating profit, making the tail-end cost-performance extremely low.
Stop loss pushed to breakeven, core profits secured. Current price has closed 95% of the position, base holdings ≤5% nailed to the cost line. Watch 0.131 and 0.128: if volume breaks below 0.128, base holdings will be liquidated; if volume shrinks with stagnation or upward spikes, all exit.
This kind of altcoin drop indicates the market has no bottom at all, funds are all flowing to safer assets, and those telling stories are all getting hit. Before tomorrow night's CPI, don't hold overnight on this kind of high-leverage bull trap; if 84000 can't hold and 2580 can't recover, the bears are not over. 50x with sevenfold floating profit is indeed tempting, but the closer it gets, the more you have to control your hands and not be devoured by greed. Also echoing the previous survival rule: spot survives on cycles, no matter how much you earn on contracts, one spike can wipe you out; with proper risk control, you live longer. This trade is a textbook-level $ZEC. #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
#台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？
Do you think TSMC can break records again with this earnings report?
According to the latest data, TSMC's Q3 revenue soared to 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, approximately 46.7 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 51% $TSM
Market forecasts net profit to reach 746.3 billion New Taiwan Dollars, which if realized, would mark six consecutive quarters of record-high profits. In this AI-driven market, it remains the steady water seller on the fishing platform.
Compared to Q3 results, two variables attract more attention:
▶️ Gross margin and guidance
Last quarter's gross margin was 67.7%, with official estimates for Q3 between 65% and 67%. Against the backdrop of 3nm being snapped up by Nvidia and Apple, it remains to be seen if management will raise full-year revenue growth forecasts and increase capital expenditures.
▶️ The Texas factory drama
Elon Musk proposed the Terafab chip park plan, with TSMC possibly only leasing. The Arizona plant is still unresolved, so moving to Texas is not urgent; it seems more like a long-term layout post-2030 or a geopolitical bargaining chip.
Compared to chip manufacturing, the real bottleneck is advanced packaging CoWoS; packaging and testing capacity can't keep up, so AI chips still can't be delivered on time.
Looking ahead:
▶️ Short-term caution against the exhaustion of positive momentum
Even if data is strong, if gross margin guidance slows, the stock price may experience short-term volatility and pullback.
▶️ Long-term moat is very deep
Tech giants' self-developed chips still rely on its technology and yield in the short term; in the coming years, it remains the biggest beneficiary of the AI dividend. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 CPI超预期我认，但我不按头条3.7%做方向。
The overall year-on-year CPI for September is 3.7%, only 0.1 higher than expected, and the month-on-month 0.6% meets expectations, with gasoline being the main contributor. What unsettles me is the core: year-on-year rising from 2.4% to 2.6%, month-on-month 0.3%, higher than the expected 0.2%, which cannot be offset by a single sub-item. This is not a misreading of oil prices, nor is inflation out of control yet.
The probability of another 25 basis point hike in October once reached 43.7%. This is a repricing, not a final decision. September just had one hike, with rates between 3.75%–4.00%, and the market is debating whether the second hike will be in October or December.
Tonight at 20:30, I only watch two numbers. PPI month-on-month expected around 0.5%–0.6% (previous 0.4%), core month-on-month about 0.3% (previous 0.2%). Year-on-year 5.4% or so cannot be directly compared with CPI. Retail sales expected month-on-month 0.3%–0.4%, August was 1.2%.
My dividing line: core PPI not below 0.3%, retail still not bad, rate hikes remain on the table, I do not consider risk assets a buying opportunity. Core PPI returning to 0.2% or lower, retail clearly cooling, September core more like noise, October holding position remains the baseline.
$BTC I do not consider a safe haven. When rate expectations rise, it follows liquidity, not gold. No adding positions before data, nor preset price points. In the dialogue on the 16th with Walsh, I only listen to whether he acknowledges this round is mainly about energy.Just took a look at TSMC's Q3 data: revenue up 50.9% year-over-year, net profit up 68.7% year-over-year, reaching 763.1 billion New Taiwan Dollars. The performance is impeccable, but the market dropped about 2.5%. The core reasons are threefold:
Q3 revenue data was already clearly announced in advance, so today is just the good news being realized.
Q3 gross margin guidance is 65%-67%, slightly lower than Q2's 67.7%, which became an excuse for bears to sell off.
The current capital market focus is entirely on Q4 revenue guidance and the upward revision of capital expenditures, all waiting for the next signal on AI capacity expansion.
The fundamentals are very solid; in the short term, it's just a battle of sentiment and profit-taking. Let's first watch where this pullback stabilizes.
$TSM $xTSM
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 $ZEC Many cryptocurrencies in the past had the slogan "a better Bitcoin," but eventually faded away. Most of them only tweaked a few parameters without real demand, relying purely on hype stories; once the hype died down, no one used them, and they gradually went to zero.
What makes ZEC different:
It focuses on zero-knowledge proof privacy transactions, with the same total supply of 21 million, occupying a unique niche rather than simply replicating Bitcoin.
There are institutions like Grayscale offering ETF products, the network has been running for many years, the underlying code is stable, and the community and miner groups have always existed.
So purely from the chain itself, it’s very hard for it to go completely to zero in the short term.
But it has two unavoidable huge risks, which also suppress its ability to ever replace Bitcoin:
1. Regulation is the biggest looming threat
Privacy coins have always been a regulatory focus. Many exchanges in Europe and the US already plan to delist privacy coins.
Bitcoin’s ledger is public, so regulators are relatively accepting; ZEC can achieve fully hidden transactions, which regulators naturally reject. Institutional funds find it very difficult to enter on a large scale, so its network effect will never catch up to BTC.
2. Internal governance and security risks
There was a historical vulnerability in the Orchard protocol, and the core development team once collectively left. Early on, there was also controversy over the founders’ shares.
Its price rise largely depends on narrative; real daily payment demand is not as big as imagined. When the market rises, the privacy narrative is hyped; when the market falls, funds flee quickly, causing extremely volatile swings.
Distinguish two things:
✅ Very hard to replace Bitcoin: Bitcoin has decades of network effect, institutional consensus, and reserve asset positioning, which ZEC cannot take away.
⚠️ It won’t easily go to zero, but it can crash over 90%.
Going to zero means the network completely stops. But regulatory crackdowns and collective delisting by exchanges cause liquidity to dry up, pushing the price extremely low. Although the chain can still run, it’s very hard to sell your coins, which feels almost like going to zero.
Combined with the current market:
Overall risk appetite has declined, and all high-risk altcoins are under pressure. ZEC surged earlier, with many profit-taking positions. Even if the privacy narrative sounds good, as long as US Treasury yields remain high, it’s hard for it to have an independent major bull market.
In summary:
ZEC won’t simply follow the old path of classic altcoins going straight to zero, but replacing Bitcoin is basically impossible. The biggest risk is not the project running away, but regulatory restrictions causing liquidity to vanish. Entering at a high price could lead to deep losses. #ZEC institutional funds entering, high-level leverage starting to clear out The most dangerous thing is not the floating profit shrinking, but that the ETH position should have been liquidated long ago, yet it is treated as if it's still alive. What you see is a floating profit of six million, or three high-leverage positions that could turn against you at any moment? When I look at this position chart, my first reaction is not envy, but a chill down my spine. Someone has put all their principal into three directions: BTC at 40x leverage, ETH at 25x, and HYPE at 10x, all fully invested. The nominal floating profit adds up to about 6.68 million USD, which sounds like fireworks exploding, but there is a fuse buried beneath the fireworks. Let's first look at the most fragile link. ETH opened at 2571.50, liquidation price at 2464.74, but the current price has already dropped below 2440. According to the rules, this position should theoretically have been liquidated long ago. The fact that it still appears on the account means either margin was added midway or there is a data delay. Either way, it shows one thing: this position is not surviving on risk control, but on continuous blood transfusions to stay alive. Now look at the funding fees. The three positions together have already burned about 900,000 USD, which is not a small amount. The biggest fear of high-leverage full positions is not being wrong on direction, but time being on the opposite side. Every day you wake up and get charged a fee, like rent, steadily eating away at your floating profit no matter how beautiful it looks. On the BTC side, the position opened at 81417, liquidation at 52379; 40x leverage means the price only needs to retrace a bit over 30% to hit the liquidation line. HYPE at 10x seems mild, but with 86,000 tokens involved, the depth and slippage of altcoins never give advance notice. What is the market trading now? On the surface, it's trend faith, but in reality, it's a bet that volatility won't suddenly spike. As long as the price holds or continues#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Earnings Hit Record Highs TSMC's Q3 financial report just came out and it blew up, here are some key takeaways👇
First, look at the data, exceeding expectations
Revenue was 1.49 trillion TWD, up 50.9% year-over-year; net profit was 763.1 billion TWD, soaring 68.7% year-over-year, crushing market expectations and setting a record high profit for six consecutive quarters.
Several signals to watch closely
The 2nm process already accounts for 8% of revenue, and advanced processes overall make up 79%. This shows TSMC is selling not volume but technological monopoly—products others can't make, which are expensive and hard to get.
AI chip demand is the real fundamental driver. Nvidia and AMD's heavy investments in expanding AI infrastructure have not slowed down; the giants competing for capacity means the AI sector's momentum is still rising.
What does this mean for the crypto space?
The performance of traditional tech leaders is the strongest macro anchor for the AI sector. TSMC's profit beating expectations indicates AI infrastructure investment is still accelerating, and the underlying logic for AI public chains, compute power tokens, and DePIN remains intact.
Previously, the market pulled back and AI-related tokens dropped significantly; now with fundamental data confirming the sector's momentum, it effectively provides a right-side confirmation signal.
But don't rush to go all in; watch two points next: one, whether TSMC's Q4 guidance will slow down; two, whether capital expenditures continue to rise, as overspending could squeeze profit margins.
In the short term, the AI sector will likely experience emotional pulses, but in the mid to long term, it depends on whether AI applications can produce killer products that push compute demand from the "infrastructure phase" to the "application phase." Just as the kitchen's oil pot began to emit the first wisp of blue smoke, an order came in from the front hall: Anthropic's main course, with Q3 revenue hitting $16.8 billion, nearly 50% higher quarter-over-quarter, and turning positive profit for two consecutive quarters, operating margin just over 10%, and cash flow back in the black.
I've stood at this stove for twenty years and know exactly what these numbers feel like—this isn't a quick stir-fry just off the heat, it's a slow-simmered broth cooked for hours, clear in color, with evenly distributed oil spots, and the saltiness perfectly balanced on the tongue's root. But don't rush to serve the dish; I need to first taste the temperature.
The quarter-over-quarter growth rate dropped compared to Q2, like the heat dial turned down halfway—still boiling, but the bubbling force is clearly weaker than before. The commercial seasoning is ample, but the fuel under the stove—chips, data centers—is a bottomless money pit; when the fire is too high, the broth easily scorches at the edges. Whether adjusting profit and cash flow can cover the big pot of computing costs is the key to whether this dish can be served.
As for that valuation rumored to be close to two trillion, I treat it as a private room reserved in advance by a guest. No matter how big the room is reserved, if the dish can't be served, the guest will still turn hostile. From Q2 to Q3, growth slowed a bit; the dish is still cooking, but the queue for seats is getting tighter.
Looking next door at the linked target, the spiciness of that dish is fiercer than I expected. It's like the extra-hot chili peppers I casually tossed into the pot—refreshing in the first few bites, but enough to have you clutching your stomach in the middle of the night. Many in the market now confuse the main dish and the chili: treating leverage as the staple and mainstream varieties as garnish. When this ratio is messed up, the taste is a disaster.
My rule is simple: the main dish should take up 70% of the plate, seasoning at most 20%, and the extra-hot chili pepper portion is just to awaken the tongue, not to settle accounts with the stomach. Whoever eats chili as a meal will be guarding the restroom at closing time.
Both pots are now burning simultaneously—one is the slow-simmered broth, fresh but costly to cook; the other is chili oil, fragrant and pungent. The real test of skill isn't how thick the broth is simmered, but knowing when to reduce the heat and when to hand over the stove to the next dish. Heat control is something never written on the menu. #anthropicq3revenue16.8b# TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Profit Hits Record High
What I find most worth noting in TSMC's earnings report is not just the "exceeding expectations" part, but that profit growth outpaced revenue growth.
Revenue increased by 50.9% year-over-year, while net profit rose by 68.7% year-over-year. Profit outperforming revenue means it's not just about selling more; each dollar earned is also more profitable. Advanced process nodes account for 79%, with 2nm just starting but already making up 8%. The demand for AI chips is solidly reflected in the numbers.
Interestingly, despite such a strong report, $TSM and xTSM actually dipped slightly that day. The reason is easy to guess: Q3 revenue had already been announced earlier, so the market had priced in the good news. Now, everyone is focused on two things: the Q4 guidance and whether capital expenditures will continue to be raised.
My view is that the "exceeding expectations" was already priced in before the earnings release. What matters next is the guidance. If the guidance only meets expectations, the stock will likely trade sideways in the short term; if capital expenditures are raised again, it indicates TSMC itself has an even more optimistic outlook on AI demand. "Midday Snapshot Before PPI" 🧊
$BTC: 81602, -2.51%, fee rate +0.0058%, open interest 52.4 billion. Price cooling down, leverage not cooling; 24h liquidations 198 million, mainly long buy orders. 💧
$ETH: 2384, -5.11%, fee rate +0.0029%, open interest 30.3 billion, liquidations 288 million, exceeding BTC. But Binance fee rate has dropped to -0.0013%, big money is shifting first, small platform retail investors are still adding positions. ⚠️
$SOL: 102.99, -3.95%, fee rate +0.0077%, highest in the market, open interest 6.69 billion, liquidations 31.61 million, 92% are longs. Not the worst drop, but the heaviest faith tax. 🔥
Conclusion: Fee rates still positive, longs not cleared; ETH fee rate turning negative, SOL longs heavily liquidated, indicating smart money is withdrawing, retail investors are holding on. PPI at 20:30 tonight, no adding positions, control your hands. BTC breaking 81000 looks to 80000, ETH 2350, SOL 100. 🍵 #US CPI unexpectedly rises to 3.7%, PPI faces another test tonight #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit record high #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus BLUR 24h +17.84% is not a pump-and-dump, it’s the announcement-driven rally after OKX launched X-Perp on 10-13.
Fact chain: On 10-13 at 12:00, the announcement of BLURUSD X-Perp launch → from midnight to noon it stayed flat around 0.010 for over ten hours → 16:00 rose to 0.01048 → 17:00 closed at 0.01177 (volume 100 million, previous 12 bars average volume 5.2 million) → 18:00 closed at 0.01228 → 19:00 currently 0.01233. Three 1H candles up +17.6%, volume expanded about 20 times.
Why now? ① Two days after X-Perp launch, perp settled funds are in place, basis can be moved; ② At 18:00 the market was falling (BTC -2.78%, median -6.4%), BLUR increased volume against the trend = funds picking weak to push strong. Announcement → settlement → pump, is the standard three-step pattern for OKX launching X-Perp.
But 4H confirmation is not yet done, 0.013 (today’s high 0.01313) area is resistance. For those chasing in: who will take the position in this announcement-driven rally?
What do you think, will BLUR surge to 0.014 or consolidate back at 0.010? $BLUR⚡ $BTC at 81,000 USD (400-day moving average) is the critical line between bulls and bears. On October 9, 12, and 15, it tested the same support area three times, each time quickly rebounding but with diminishing strength. Holding this level suggests a rebound; breaking it could see a drop to the 80,000 psychological level or even 78,000.
⚡ $ETH ETF has seen net outflows for 10 consecutive days, about 14. Early large whales who bought in are transferring 6,369 ETH (about 2,300) to exchanges, with a dense sell wall resistance zone at 2,382 above.
⚡ $ZEC peaked at 1,698 and has retraced about 36%.
🔥 Macro: US September CPI year-over-year rose 3.7%, exceeding expectations (previous 3.4%). The probability of a Fed rate hike in October surged to 47%. The Fear & Greed Index dropped sharply from 62 to 52, shifting the market from "greedy" to "neutral."
#US CPI exceeds expectations to 3.7%, PPI test tonight
#TSMC Q3 net profit beats expectations, profits hit record highs
#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus That is a fifteen-story cantilever structure with its load-bearing column removed, the facade still draped with banners of billion-dollar orders, yet the foundation is already leaking. On October 14th, CoreWeave's stock price plummeted by 15.46%, and the yield on bonds maturing in 2032 briefly broke through the 15% structural red line—in construction terms, this means the client looks up from the ground and finds the main structure's settlement rate exceeds the design margin, so all subcontractors simultaneously start dismantling the scaffolding.
I must clarify one thing: order backlog is not the foundation; orders are just renderings. Having $10 billion in backlog contracts hanging there looks impressive, but it's merely a blueprint not yet poured. What truly determines whether this building can stand is the concrete—that is, whether computing power delivery can be converted into revenue on schedule, whether revenue can be converted into operating cash flow, and cash flow is the only thing that can repay the $52.1 billion in debt and lease liabilities. Carrying this amount on the books at the end of June is like building a super high-rise on soft soil with high leverage reinforcement. When interest rates rise, financing costs become lateral wind loads, and you have to recalculate every floor.
The leader says the market reaction is irrational. But structural engineering never accepts "irrational" as a defense. The wind won't stop blowing just because you believe the building is stable. Long-term orders can indeed support debt repayment—provided that the four pillars of delivery schedule, power allocation, rack installation rate, and customer fulfillment willingness are all in place simultaneously. If any one of these develops shear cracks, the internal force redistribution of the entire building will transfer pressure onto bondholders. A 15% yield is not sentiment; it is the market reassessing the building's ultimate load capacity.
Thermal inflation and weakness in the tech sector simultaneously reduce foundation bearing capacity and increase wind load values. At this time, all similar projects must be compared laterally: whose capital structure is cleaner, whose delivery curve is more verifiable, whose counterparties in orders have stronger credit. Financial pressure never rests on just one building; it transmits along the supply and credit chains to adjacent plots, causing the entire development area's financing window to narrow simultaneously.
I never look at renderings when reviewing blueprints; I only look at reinforcement drawings and geological survey reports. The entire problem of this company can be summed up in one sentence: it signed contracts at the speed of design but must repay debt at the speed of construction. #coreweavestockbonddrop$SKHYNIX Storage stocks haven't finished falling yet? Be careful when bottom-fishing now, you might catch it halfway down!
Today a brother asked me, with SanDisk falling so much, is it time to bottom-fish? $SNDK
My advice is clear: don't rush!
A big drop doesn't mean it's hit the bottom. Especially in the current market, blindly entering is very likely to catch it halfway down.
This round of weakness in the storage sector isn't without reason. Domestic storage market competition pressure, the emotional shift from early buyback completion, plus continued pressure on the Korean storage sector, have led market funds to reassess storage stock valuations.
Last night’s CPI data exceeded expectations, the dollar strengthened, interest rate expectations heated up, and high-valuation tech stocks face increased pressure.
From the market perspective, lows keep moving down, bears still dominate, and a clear stop-fall signal hasn't appeared yet.
So my thinking remains unchanged: don't rush to bottom-fish for now, prioritize watching for rebound shorting opportunities.
Don't always try to guess the lowest point. Until the trend reverses, cheap might only be relative.
Wait for a rebound, watch the resistance, confirm weakening, then consider entering. Opportunities are never lacking; the important thing is not to rush to prove you can catch the absolute bottom when the trend is downward.
#TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, earnings hit record high #US CPI exceeds expectations, rises to 3.7%, PPI test tonight #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus On the radar echo map, a rare temperature inversion layer appeared over Manhattan. On October 13, Mellon Bank in New York put a two-year US Treasury bond into a private ledger, with settlement taking only a few minutes, followed by access to overnight repo financing. This was the first tokenized asset transaction on a triparty repo platform. On the same day, DRW and Marex exchanged total return swaps linked to tokenized bond indices on another chain, while Ondo's tokenized Treasury product scale has already crossed the $3 billion threshold.
I was staring at this set of data in the duty room, and my first reaction was not the price, but the air pressure.
The traditional repo market has long been in a hot and low-pressure state—collateral is moved back and forth among custodians, clearinghouses, and brokers, with each handoff requiring a T+1 waiting period for the cumulonimbus clouds to clear. The low turnover rate of collateral is like poor vapor transport; naturally, funding costs are held aloft and cannot come down. Now that someone has moved Treasuries onto distributed ledgers, compressing the settlement cycle from one day to a few minutes, it is equivalent to opening a channel on a front line, instantly connecting the vapor. This is not cooling down; it is changing the circulation structure of the entire atmospheric layer.
But meteorology has taught me one thing: localized strong convection never means the entire weather system is transforming. There are currently three key variables in the observation that have not yet converged.
First, cross-platform liquidity. Ondo, Canton, and private ledgers each form independent air masses without stable jet streams between them. Can tokenized Treasuries on one platform serve as qualified collateral on another? If not, these are just three isolated thunderstorm cells, not a front line.
Second, compliance and risk control. Penetrative regulation of tokenized assets is equivalent to equipping the storm with a radiosonde; the problem lies in who launches it, who owns the data, and whether there is a manual observation backup plan in case of network outages. The finality of on-chain settlement and legal finality are currently two pressure layers at different altitudes.
Third, collateral haircut rates. Whether tokenized Treasuries can receive the same discount treatment as native Treasuries under stress scenarios determines if they are truly low-cost funding or just high-cost financing repackaged.
The price movement of US stock token targets like $xMSFT essentially serves as a short-term forecast for this circulation adjustment. Its amplified volatility indicates the market is engaging in high-frequency games over the three variables above—funds are betting that tokenization can reduce financing costs, but the risk model has yet to provide stable boundary conditions.
My observation station currently issues a yellow warning: the system pattern is already in place, energy transmission is being established, but vertical wind shear remains large; any compliance fault or liquidity gap could break this front into afternoon thermal convection.
The radiosonde data at 2 a.m. has not yet been transmitted back; the balloon is still rising. #tokenizedtreasuryrepoPPI Countdown: BTC Shows Signs of Accumulation, But Why Can't a Reversal Be Confirmed Yet?
Before tonight's US PPI release, BTC and ETH saw short-term net spot inflows of approximately $18.45 million and $15.6 million respectively, indicating that funds are attempting to catch the dip at lower levels. However, when extending the observation to 4-hour and 24-hour periods, the overall capital flow remains weak, with SOL continuously facing selling pressure.
This means localized buying is warming up, but it does not equate to a market reversal. Short-term funds may be positioning early or merely trying to bottom-fish; the key is whether the buying can be sustained after the data release.
The market expects PPI to rise 0.4% month-over-month and 3.2% year-over-year. If the data exceeds expectations, concerns over inflation and high interest rates may intensify, putting BTC's downside support to the test; if below expectations, risk appetite could recover, but any rebound still requires volume confirmation.
Next, focus on three key points: whether BTC spot buying can continue, whether ETH can hold key support levels, and whether SOL's capital flow can turn from negative to positive.
There is probing by funds before the data, but the direction only becomes clear after. Don't mistake short-term accumulation for a trend reversal; the real signal is sustained buying, not a momentary inflow. $BTC #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 🚨 The market is all red, but $ZK has surged 12% against the trend! Is the technical breakthrough real, or is capital pushing it behind the scenes?
Brothers, today's $ZK is indeed a bit different!
The market is still under pressure, and fellow L2 projects $ARB and $OP are weak, but $ZK has stubbornly forged an independent trend. The catalyst behind it is not simple: with just one graphics card, it generated proofs for 7,200 consecutive Ethereum blocks, and reportedly 99% of the proofs can be completed within 10 seconds.
The technical strength is indeed impressive, but strong technology does not necessarily mean the token is worth chasing! 👀
What I care more about is whether there is real ecological demand and token value support behind the lively technical narrative?
📉 First, the ecosystem fundamentals still need improvement.
ZKsync Era's current DeFi TVL is about $15 million, which still has a significant gap compared to the ecosystems of ARB and OP. Technical breakthroughs can bring attention, but whether it can further convert into users, capital, and real applications is the key to whether the subsequent market can sustain.
⚠️ Second, token value capture still has uncertainties.
The previously planned cross-chain fee mechanism has not been officially launched after the v31 adjustment. In other words, technical progress does not mean token demand will grow simultaneously. It still depends on when the specific mechanism will be implemented and whether it can truly generate value.
🐳 Third, the concentration of holdings is worth watching.
Currently, the top ten addresses hold nearly 51% of $ZK. Such concentrationTSMC's Q3 revenue hit a new high again, and the earnings report will be released tonight. What exactly does this have to do with SanDisk? Pharaoh directly said, TSMC is the "road builder," and SanDisk is the "water seller by the roadside." The wider the road is built, the more water is sold, but when the road is being built, dust flies everywhere, and the water seller has to take a mouthful of dust first. Let's first look at how strong TSMC's report card is. Q3 revenue reached 1.49 trillion New Taiwan dollars, about 46.7 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 50.9%, setting a single-quarter historical high and breaking records for the sixth consecutive quarter. Wall Street expects net profit to be about 746.3 billion New Taiwan dollars, a year-on-year surge of 65%, again setting a historical high. Revenue for the first nine months has already reached 3.89 trillion New Taiwan dollars, directly surpassing the entire previous year. So is this good or bad news for SanDisk? In the short term, it's an "emotional collateral damage," but in the long term, it's a "demand confirmation." Let's first look at the short-term pitfall. After TSMC's Q3 revenue was announced, its stock price actually fell by 1.4%. Why? Because September's single-month revenue dropped 0.6% month-on-month, and the market felt the "good news was fully priced in." Even more painful is that when TSMC's stock rose, memory stocks fell. On October 12, Micron fell more than 2%, SanDisk nearly 2%, SK Hynix and Western Digital all declined. Market funds are rotating within the semiconductor sector, flowing towards TSMC's advanced process, while memory stocks are being drained. But the long-term logic holds. TSMC's revenue growth is driven by AI chip foundry demand, with customers like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom placing massive orders. For every AI chip produced, a bunch of accompanying components must be matched behind it.$BTC hasn't crashed because retail investors are out of chips; now retail investors are all playing with altcoins📊 History always astonishingly similar? The "Midterm Election Curse" of the US stock market and Bitcoin
Looking back at the past few rounds:
🔹 2014: BTC bottomed 71 days after the midterm election
🔹 2018: BTC bottomed 39 days after the midterm election
🔹 2022: BTC bottomed 13 days after the midterm election
From 71 days to 39 days to 13 days, the data doesn't lie:
1️⃣ Institutionalization accelerates: capital no longer waits for long certainty, front-running becomes the norm.
2️⃣ Deepening macro linkage: the policy implementation period after the midterm election is the moment of liquidity restructuring. An interesting phenomenon: the bottoming time seems to be getting earlier.
Will there be new changes in 2026?
But I am more concerned about three questions:
1️⃣ Has macro liquidity started to improve?
2️⃣ When BTC falls, is open interest increasing or decreasing?
3️⃣ When the market is generally bearish, does the price start to refuse new lows?
If the price falls and open interest decreases, it may indicate deleveraging; if price then stabilizes and active buying strengthens, it is worth further observing reversal opportunities. Here’s something you might not know: $STRK vs $NEAR quantum-resistant narrative comparison
Both focus on post-quantum security, but their technical approaches are completely different.
$STRK relies on the STARK proof system, fundamentally based on hash functions rather than elliptic curves, giving the proof layer native quantum resistance. Coupled with native account abstraction, the account signature logic can be upgraded independently without a hard fork.
Its drawback is that it is currently still an Ethereum L2, with underlying settlement security dependent on ETH. The team plans to transition to an independent L1, aiming to fully implement quantum resistance by 2027. Market hype focuses on the dual narrative of ZK + post-quantum, with the ecosystem centered on ZK applications.
$NEAR is an L1 public chain that has already launched on mainnet the NIST-standard ML-DSA lattice-based post-quantum signature. Users can rotate post-quantum keys per transaction without migrating addresses, making it the first mainstream public chain to implement account-level post-quantum signatures.
However, its consensus layer has not yet completed post-quantum upgrades, with the account layer leading and further upgrades pending. An additional highlight is support for quantum-secure signatures on cross-chain assets, with a narrative leaning toward general L1 infrastructure.
Differences at the transaction layer: STRK’s post-quantum advantage lies at the proof layer, emphasizing a long-term cryptographic security story; NEAR’s account signature feature is already live and verifiably implemented.Most underrated line in TSMC's report is the guide. Next-quarter revenue is guided to $52.3–54.3B vs $46.7B this quarter, with margins of 65–67%. If AI capex were peaking, that guide wouldn't look like this.
#TSMCQ3RecordProfit 哈喽大家好，我是謀勝，在币圈謀利赚1万u目前来到了1800u，昨晚数据出来想试一下抄底发现反弹不怎么样后面就转空一手，随便小仓开个空$KORU 毕竟跌了那么多我不信韩国不出来救一下
本轮自年内高点持续回落，核心是HBM盈利预期下调、市场担忧AI资本开支放缓、存储供给风险升温；叠加美国CPI高于预期，美联储加息预期抬升，美债收益率走高，外资持续大额抛售韩半导体权重股。指数连续阴跌过程中，KORU依靠每日重置杠杆，跌幅被三倍放大，同时持续产生净值损耗，反弹回本难度大幅增加。
美债利率涨、加息预期强 → 美元强、外资跑韩股 → KORU必跌
降息、流动性宽松 → 韩股反弹、KORU爆发力最强#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 CZ said on X that hardware wallets should use transparent cases in the future. The background is this month's reseller supply chain incident, with on-chain statistics showing about $86 million to $93 million stolen, involving over 300 wallets. The tampered devices had their batteries thinned and replaced with boards containing LTE modules, with intact packaging and passing official inspections. Transparent cases can cover the invisible weak points. What is overlooked is that the implanted parts can be hidden under the chips, and ordinary people cannot distinguish them by looking at the circuit board. It has been confirmed that all losses came from the same reseller, the problem lies in the channel. Trezor plans to cut off third-party resellers before January next year, and OneKey will cut off 95% of resellers. CZ's affiliated YZi Labs invested in OneKey, so this viewpoint should be taken with some reservation. I predict that next quarter manufacturers will mainly promote official direct sales, and transparent cases will at most be optional models. The above is a personal opinion record and does not constitute any investment advice. # TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Profit Hits Record High
TSMC's Q3 estimated revenue is NT$1.49 trillion, a year-on-year increase of about 50%, setting a new record high. This is fundamentally driven by AI computing power orders boosting advanced process volume. However, the high revenue growth is only a scale phenomenon; the real test of profit quality is whether the gross margin can hold within the 65%-67% range. Currently, TSMC is caught in a production expansion paradox: the stronger the AI demand, the higher the capital expenditure, depreciation, and overseas factory costs, compounded by yield losses from ramping up the 2nm new process, continuously eroding profit elasticity. The high concentration of AI orders also hides risks of customer bargaining power and demand cycle fluctuations. If the gross margin approaches the upper limit of the range, it proves that the pricing power of advanced processes is sufficient to cover the additional costs; if the gross margin is under pressure, even with impressive revenue, net profit growth will significantly lag behind revenue, and the market will reassess the sustainability of this AI dividend cycle. #Tesla delivery exceeds expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus Tesla's latest delivery data is better than market expectations, temporarily dispelling concerns about continued weakening demand. However, the focus of capital has shifted from "how many cars were sold" to whether the gross margin can be restored. Previously, to boost orders, Tesla continuously adopted a price-cutting strategy, a typical volume-for-price trade-off. Although delivery data has warmed up, the profit per vehicle has been compressed, which is currently the biggest point of contention.
The core market question now: after sales rebound, can Tesla escape the price war and stabilize or even raise the vehicle gross margin? If Q3 financial report shows margin recovery and cost control exceeds expectations, it will drive TSLA strength and boost Nasdaq growth stock sentiment.
Mid-to-long-term positive factors are FSD, Robotaxi, and energy storage business. FSD subscription is high-margin software revenue; energy storage business has significantly higher gross margin than vehicles and is a future source of profit elasticity; but short-term contribution volume is limited, making it difficult to quickly offset vehicle profit pressure.
Transmission to crypto market: Tesla is a high-elasticity Nasdaq stock, and its stock price fluctuations will drive overall risk appetite. If earnings fall short of expectations, it may trigger valuation cuts in growth stocks, indirectly suppressing high-beta assets like BTC and ETH; if earnings exceed expectations, it will provide short-term support sentiment. However, this is cross-market linkage and it is difficult to have an independent trend.
Follow-up focus: vehicle gross margin, free cash flow, and management's statements on subsequent pricing strategy and FSD commercialization. Delivery data is only a leading signal; profit indicators are the key to determining capital attitude. $BTC $ETH US inflation data exceeded expectations, US Treasury yields strengthened, and the dollar's rise directly drained market liquidity. ETH fell 6.03% yesterday, hitting a low of 2318 and closing near 2357. SOL weakened in sync, at 100.86, down over 7% for the week. The derivatives market saw a chain liquidation of long positions, futures open interest contracted, leverage decreased, and selling pressure came from forced liquidations rather than active short selling.
Just unscrewed the thermos cup on the guard post windowsill; the water is still a bit hot.
ETH current price is 2366.9. The daily MACD shows a golden cross upward, RSI rebounded from the oversold zone. But the liquidation map shows a large number of long liquidation orders stacked between 2350 and 2400; during the upward sweep, a round of liquidation selling pressure will be triggered first, so a short-term pullback is needed. 2400 is a strong resistance.
In terms of operation, buy on dips in the 2340 to 2355 range, with a stop loss below 2318, which is yesterday's low; if broken, admit the mistake. First take profit at 2400, second at 2460. If there is a volume breakout above 2400 and it holds, you can add to the long position, targeting 2500. Do not touch short positions; the risk-reward ratio is too poor to short against the daily golden cross structure.
The long-term trend is intact; the short-term is just a liquidation-driven shakeout. Control position size and avoid chasing highs near 2350.
The walkie-talkie is ringing, time to make a round.
$ETH
#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus
@OKX Planet PPI data is about to be released, BTC has fallen below 81,000, but open interest has quietly surged to 2.58 billion. The lower the price falls, the more leverage increases; this is even scarier than the long-short ratio.
In simple terms: $BTC current price 81,000, 24h low 80,168, open interest 2.583 billion, funding rate still positive, longs are still paying shorts. $ETH dropped to 2,363, open interest rose from 1.35 billion to 1.54 billion, people keep adding positions. $SOL is the worst, at 102.26, with a low of 100.46, funding rate has turned negative, shorts are starting to collect money, longs can’t even afford the interest.
What does this mean? Longs haven’t fled, they’re still holding on. Price falls, open interest rises, a typical bloodied hold. If tonight’s 20:30 PPI exceeds expectations, these added longs will be the first wave of fuel. Once the liquidation dense zone is broken, the chain reaction will be fiercer than last night.
I’m not bearish; in this market, opening positions is a gamble on size. Let leverage clean itself out first, wait for liquidation data to cool down and market volatility to narrow, then consider entering with the trend.
Key levels: BTC 80,000/78,000, ETH 2,300/2,200, SOL 100/95. Don’t rush to catch the falling knife below these round numbers.
How are you planning to act on tonight’s PPI?
#USCPI unexpectedly rises to 3.7%, tonight’s PPI faces another test
#BTC Treasury preferred stock financing heats up
#ETH fluctuates after hitting $2,500 #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profit hits a record high
$LINK's market action is really awkward. The 9-day cooperation has landed, and Stellar's data service is officially up and running. Normally, this kind of news would be enough to push the price up, but instead, it dropped 6.8% in 24 hours and 7% over 7 days, sitting right at the 7-day low, with volume only 1.4 times the usual.
Good news causing a sell-off boils down to two things: either the news was already priced in long ago, with smart money having exited after a 10% rise in 30 days and 46% in 90 days; or this asset doesn't react to news at all and only follows Bitcoin's moves. Today, Bitcoin fell below 81k, 180,000 people were liquidated, and the whole market is forced to reduce positions, so who has spare funds to buy on good news?
I lean towards the first explanation. Real good news was already discussed in the market three weeks ago; those popping champagne when the announcement comes out are often the last to enter.
Let's see if the 12.02 level can hold. For a rebound, we need to see volume pick up and prices recover. This current low-volume, slow decline can't hold. $LINK Predict Fun's single-day capture fees reached $313,000, surpassing $300,000 again in a single day after the World Cup final day, ranking fourth in BNB Chain protocol fees.
Many prediction market platforms gradually lost activity or even ceased operations after the World Cup, but Predict Fun experienced a significant secondary growth.
The core driving force behind this is the short-term price fluctuation market represented by BTC 5min, contributing over 60% of the fees.
In the most recent full trading day, Predict Fun's Crypto 5min market set a new record for single-day trading volume, surpassing Polymarket comprehensively in the three core metrics of trading volume, unique trading users, and number of trades.
Additionally, Predict Fun is also continuously growing in the 15min market, TradFi, and Esports sectors, with the 15min market particularly gradually competing for Polymarket's market share The market sentiment has definitely shifted. Big Brother Maji used to basically go all-in on longs, but this time his total contract position is about 59.76 million U, split directly into three parts—short BTC, short HYPE, and long ETH. He's playing a left-right ambidextrous game. Breaking it down more clearly: On the BTC side, a 40x short opened at 84070, with an unrealized profit of about 220,000 U, and funding fees actually earned 56,600 U, so the account looks favorable; but with 40x leverage, even a small price bounce can hit him hard, so don’t just focus on the unrealized profit. On the ETH side, a 25x long opened at 2541, with an unrealized loss of 340,000 U. The market is weak but he’s stubbornly holding the long position—either betting on a rebound or using it for portfolio hedging. That strong spike this morning, I seriously suspect it was aimed at his position. HYPE is the harshest: a 5x short opened at 65.8, with an unrealized loss of 4.21 million U, funding fees collected 1.03 million U, which helps ease the cost, but price volatility doesn’t show mercy. So this is not a full bearish stance; it’s clearly a directional differentiation between coins. Going forward, watch three things: whether BTC can stabilize, whether ETH can rise, and whether this HYPE short can hold up. You can observe the smart money’s positions, but don’t copy blindly—what you should ponder is why they are positioning this way, not just follow because they buy.The storage sector surged fiercely some time ago, and now it is falling just as sharply.
The growth in AI demand is a fact, but stock prices have already priced in expectations prematurely, along with the impact of risk-free assets.
SanDisk's earnings report on October 29 is approaching, and the market has already started to reprice.
I choose to continue holding short positions, bearish in the short term, but that does not mean I am pessimistic about the storage industry in the long run.
No matter how good the performance is, it depends on how much valuation the market has given in advance.
#Can SanDisk's storage business high growth continue? Where is the Core public chain headed?
Screenshot from OKX on October 15 at 17:02: CORE/USDT perpetual at 0.01798, down 2.49% in 24 hours, lowest at 0.01712, trading volume 1.5581 million USDT. EMA5 0.01812, EMA10 0.01839, EMA20 0.01878—all three lines are above the price, with the short-term moving average below the long-term moving average, a classic bearish setup; MACD's DIFF is -0.00047, histogram -0.00018, still below the zero line; open interest shrank to 1.29 million USD, already below the sub-chart scale of 1.59 to 1.92 million. The only line still worth watching below is the 0.01712 just hit today.
I went long at 0.02088, which is exactly that upper resistance line on the chart. Nominally down 13.9%, which translates to about -69.4% of principal on 5x leverage, excluding funding fees; the profit/loss on screen is -195.93. To get back to 0.02088, it needs to rise 16.1%.
The position is more critical than the drop. btc126 wrote today that the distance from the historical low is 8.80%, that low was on July 28 at 0.0167.
Three things I haven't figured out: On December 22, 2025, the Core Foundation released the 2026 roadmap, stating that repurchases of CORE would be funded by income from AMP, BTC LST, SatPay, ETF/ETP, but no funds have flowed back yet. Actual annual inflation is 35.73%, while the protocol's target is 3% to 5%. During the September validator over-issuance event, the hard fork was not rolled back, five exchanges suspended deposits and withdrawals, the official promised a technical review which has not been made public to date, and on October 1 block production was handed over to an independent operator.
Three questions for everyone:
When will verifiable on-chain data for repurchases be available?
If it breaks below 0.01712 to test 0.0167, do you call that a risk or an opportunity?
How much trust is left in an unexplained over-issuance?
I personally went long at 0.02088; I won't discuss the next steps here. All data have sources and timestamps; this does not constitute investment advice. Contracts involve leverage and liquidation risks.#TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit a record high TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, what other highlights are there in the October 15 earnings report?
Do you think TSMC can break records again with this earnings report?
Latest data shows TSMC's Q3 revenue soared to 1.49 trillion TWD, approximately $46.7 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 51% $TSM
Market forecasts net profit to reach 746.3 billion TWD, which if realized would mark six consecutive quarters of record-high profits. In this AI boom, it remains the steady water seller on the fishing platform.
Compared to Q3 results, two variables attract more attention:
▶️ Gross margin and guidance
Last quarter's gross margin was 67.7%, with official estimates for Q3 between 65% and 67%. Against the backdrop of 3nm capacity being snapped up by Nvidia and Apple, watch if management will raise full-year revenue growth guidance and increase capital expenditures.
▶️ The Texas fab drama
Elon Musk proposed the Terafab chip park plan, with TSMC possibly only leasing. The Arizona fab is still unresolved, so moving to Texas is not urgent; it seems more like a long-term layout post-2030 or a geopolitical bargaining chip.
Compared to chip manufacturing, the real bottleneck is advanced packaging CoWoS; packaging and testing capacity can't keep up, so AI chips still can't be delivered on time.
Looking ahead:
▶️ Short-term caution for potential profit-taking
Even if data is strong, if gross margin guidance slows, the stock price may experience short-term volatility and pullback.
▶️ Long-term moat is very deep
Tech giants' self-developed chips still rely on TSMC's technology and yield in the short term; in the coming years, it remains the biggest beneficiary of the AI dividend.This market is really brutal and heart-wrenching!
$SKHYNIX has been plunging these past two days, dropping nearly 15% in 24 hours, now barely holding around $939. After last night's CPI data release, it just tanked like it took a laxative.
The worst hit are the big players! From last night until now, three major whales got absolutely hammered, closing nearly $3.88 million worth of long positions combined, with actual losses hitting $887,000. Some cut losses actively with tears, others tried to hold on but got forcibly liquidated in batches. Now all three accounts are wiped out and gone—it's a bloodbath!
But here's the interesting part. This plunge pushed the funding rate into negative territory for a while, indicating panic selling was rampant. Yet this morning, bottom-fishing funds rushed back in aggressively, flipping the funding rate from negative to positive in just two hours—intense battle going on.
Looking at the liquidation chart, there's still over $5 million worth of long liquidation exposure lying around $888, just about 5.5% below the current price. If it can't hold and dips further, expect another chain reaction of liquidations. The long-side risk is far from over.$ETH $BTC 🔥 10.15 Evening Report
On the same day, $BTC $ETH $SOL all weakened together.
But the reasons behind the three bearish candles are different.
Different reasons for the decline:
$BTC is driven by sentiment selling, no large holders fleeing on-chain.
There is still support near the 400-day moving average.
$ETH is a capital withdrawal:
ETF net outflows continue, wallet balances are moving out.
Some are actively reducing positions, not just following the drop.
$SOL is pressured by contracts:
Perpetual shorts are increasing, prices pushed down by leverage.
Spot outflows are limited, no large-scale chip turnover.
Just looking at the order of decline can easily mistake sentiment for trend.
Distinguishing the source helps identify where the noise is. #US CPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, tonight PPI faces another test CPI一热，全场挨锤。$ZEC 、$SOL 、$BTC 都在跌，但跌法完全不同。
$ZEC 摔得最重。24h跌12%，现价1096，持仓量缩13.6%，1900万清算几乎全是多单。资金费年化近10%，杠杆太拥挤，一反转就踩踏。1000是最后防线。
$SOL 被资金面拖着，基本面却最扎实。现价102.3，24h跌5%，ETF连卖7天。Q3应用收入3.65亿，同比增42.6%；10月21日Alpenglow上主网，确认时间从12.8秒压到150毫秒。破100看90。
$BTC 最能扛。现价80927，比ZEC少跌10个点，鲸鱼持仓303万枚，创近一年新高。但美元现货在撤，ETF上周流出6.8亿。跌破80000看78000。
三者本质：ZEC在还杠杆债，SOL在等资金回，BTC是资金没走净。今晚还有一场，继续跌还是止住？边走边看。#BTC现货ETF再度净流出，机构买盘能否回暖？#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #TSMCQ3RecordProfit
TSMC just delivered another record quarter. The margin story is more nuanced.
TSMC reported Q3 revenue of NT$1.494T, up 50.9% YoY, and net profit of NT$763.06B, up 68.7%. Net profit set a quarterly record and beat the NT$746.34B LSEG SmartEstimate cited by CNBC.
The technology mix shows where demand is moving:
· 2nm reached 8% of wafer revenue, up from 3% in Q2
· 3nm contributed 33%, followed by 5nm at 28% and 7nm at 10%
#TSMCQ3RecordProfit $TSM $xTSM#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
TSMC's Q3 earnings report is out, with explosive numbers, but the stock price fell. Perhaps expectations were too high, and people have already priced in the stock.
Revenue grew 50.9% year-over-year to NT$1.49 trillion, net profit rose 68.7% year-over-year to NT$763.1 billion, setting a new quarterly high and exceeding market expectations. The 2nm process accounts for 8% of wafer revenue, and advanced processes overall account for 79%. Demand for AI chips continues to support performance, making this a very solid foundation.
However, the stock price dropped 2.67%. The issue lies with the gross margin guidance. The company gave a range of 65% to 67%, lower than Q2's actual 67.7%. The market worries that even if AI chip demand remains strong, if gross margins decline, it indicates that cost pressures from advanced processes are eating into profits. Additionally, whether capital expenditures will be further increased is another key point to watch.