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Previously, when trading altcoins, seeing a sudden surge in trading volume would immediately excite me, assuming that funds were entering the market and the trend was about to start. After experiencing several times when explosive volume trends backfired, I realized that this logic cannot be directly applied.
A spike in trading volume only indicates increased market activity, but busyness does not mean it's suitable to enter. When an obscure coin's volume multiplies and its price rapidly rises, there are both momentum-chasing funds and chips waiting to be sold. The intense battle between bulls and bears often leads to false breakouts and stop-loss sweeps: entering on the breakout only to be stopped out on a pullback, then the market rallies again after exit, repeatedly draining principal.
Now, when I look at volume, I first compare it to its long-term normal range. Abnormal surges are placed under observation; I don't enter the market solely based on volume spikes. I also avoid coins with persistently low volume, as thin order books and severe slippage make it difficult to exit smoothly during market moves.
I prefer moderately active markets: stable volume without extreme spikes, with predictable fluctuations. Although such trends are less exciting, they are easier to follow according to plan.
A single large bullish candle in an altcoin always quickly attracts attention, but the higher the interest, the more I tend to watch patiently. There's no need to act at the hottest moment of the market; opportunities that you understand, can execute on, and can exit calmly are truly your own opportunities. $ETH $SOL #Gold at $4200 tug-of-war, why didn't BTC follow? #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? #ZEC hits a new all-time high, NU7 upgrade expectations draw attention. TSMC Q3 earnings exceed expectations, so why did TSM tokens fall 3%?
On October 15, TSMC (TSM) announced its Q3 2026 earnings: revenue of 1.49 trillion NTD (up 50.9% YoY), net profit of 763.1 billion (up 68.7% YoY), both reaching record highs. The 2nm process contributed 8% of wafer revenue, with advanced processes accounting for 79%. AI chip demand is the core driver.
Fundamentals are explosive, but the market is quite restrained. Related tokens TSM and xTSM both dropped over 3%. This "sell the news" reaction is not surprising amid recent cautious sentiment around AI concepts. As community views point out, the market is more concerned about underlying risks: first, heavy reliance on AI customers and downstream worries about infrastructure investment returns; second, huge cost pressures from building plants in the U.S. (Arizona investment up to $265 billion); third, ongoing geopolitical "single point of failure" risks suppressing valuations.
In the short term, TSM tokens are digesting profits alongside U.S. stocks, with increased volatility. But in the medium to long term, TSMC's "geopolitical pricing power" and its position as the AI "shovel seller" remain solid. Prudent operators should avoid blindly catching falling knives and are advised to wait for stabilization before making decisions ETH was just liquidated for $4.48 million, but this whale came back to buy aggressively half an hour later.
What changed? When ETH dropped to $2,420, a whale's long position of 28,720 ETH was liquidated, losing $4.48 million. But just half an hour after the liquidation, the whale added $10 million USDC margin and reopened a long position of 9,580 ETH at $2,428, worth $23.26 million.
Why is this noteworthy? Against the backdrop of soaring PPI and intensified tightening expectations, this is not an isolated case. In the past 24 hours, ETH long liquidations reached as high as $261 million, and whales immediately reversed their positions after liquidation, indicating that large funds believe this is not the end of the trend but a leverage cleanup.
Which observation is more supported? It leans toward "chip turnover after passive clearing." This whale currently still holds about $288 million in long positions, with an unrealized loss of $9.71 million, and the liquidation price is in the $2,286–$2,299 range.
Next to watch: Can ETH hold $2,319? If it breaks below, a $700 million long liquidation cascade will be triggered. Is this whale a prophet or just another one buried? $BTC $ETH #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins Eight minutes ago, I poured an entire pot of broth that had been simmering for six hours straight into the sink—today's Seoul market is like this old broth being diluted with a ladle of ice water, and the stove flame turned down to the lowest.
Samsung and SK Hynix, the two heavyweights anchoring this table, are the main dishes, and today they burned together at the bottom of the pot. The KOSPI plunged nearly 8% intraday; the circuit breaker’s "ding" sounded like the kitchen’s power tripping in my ears. The co-pilot’s brakes were useless; the heat was already beyond recovery. The Nikkei dropped 4%, like the neighboring stove’s chef saw my pot boil over and accidentally flipped his own pot too. The Nasdaq fell 1.88% overnight; the chip ingredient has been repeatedly re-cooked for six days—the sixth time in the same pot, the umami is long gone, leaving only bitterness.
Now about my seasoning rack. The hot CPI is like the coarse salt accidentally spilled in a shaky hand—one spoonful and the whole pot is too salty; the rising financing costs in AI are like the gas price suddenly doubling, the longer it simmers, the more painful it gets; overvaluation is like a too-fancy plating with too little food, customers glance and flip the menu; the price wars in storage are like two restaurants on the same street fighting over the same batch of supplies—whoever lowers prices first dies first, whoever doesn’t starves first.
The Dutch stove equipment supplier’s orders are still rising—good stove sales don’t mean people are coming to eat, an awkward truth insiders understand. Investors aren’t complaining about stove demand now, but about the dishes served not showing a clear payback period.
The real killer dish hasn’t been served yet. TSMC’s report is tonight’s tasting session—you can tell at a bite whether the heat was right or the seasoning failed. And the US stock token you’re watching, XBMNR, frankly is a pre-made platter from my kitchen; once the main dish is served, even the plate shakes.
My accounting is straightforward: the main dish must occupy 70% of the position to be qualified; seasonings are for finishing touches, not for filling the stomach; as for the chili—the extra hot jar, leverage, add three grains for aroma, add a spoonful, see you in the emergency room tonight. What’s hitting the table today isn’t a seasoning problem, someone poured the entire jar of extra hot chili straight into the broth.
Now I put down the spoon and wait for the tasting soup to be served—whether it’s salty or bland, no one else can taste it for TSMC. #kospidropsnearly8%After the chest is opened, the heart is still beating, but the left and right ventricles are no longer synchronized: Brent dropped 0.9 percentage points to $105.69 per barrel, while WTI rose 0.4 percentage points to $94.14. This is not stability; it is a sign of electromechanical dissociation.
Saudi Aramco's Dammam headquarters was hit on October 13, with the top three floors of the office building burned; the Ministry of Energy confirmed no deaths, and production and exports were uninterrupted. The Houthi forces simultaneously struck Saudi airports and energy nodes, and the Saudi coalition retaliated against fuel depots in Yemen. From the surface, this is a burn injury that has not yet penetrated the mediastinum. The Red Sea is the left main trunk, the bypass pipeline is the collateral circulation, also a temporary bridging vessel. The incident resembles a short-run ventricular tachycardia; the monitor alarmed, but blood pressure has not dropped yet.
The market price reaction is more like a contradiction in blood gas analysis: Brent is sinking, WTI is rising, their separation is not healthy but indicates mismatched left and right heart output. The geopolitical premium is undergoing differential diagnosis: is it a transient arrhythmia, or coronary occlusion causing myocardial infarction? The key is not that three floors were burned, but whether the conflict has penetrated oil fields, refineries, and export terminals. Oil fields are myocardium, refineries are valves, export terminals are major vessels. The Houthis' drones and missiles are like microemboli in circulation; today they block airports and energy nodes, tomorrow if they block Ras Tanura, Jubail, or Red Sea terminals, perfusion will be cut off.
Saudi plans to increase bypass pipeline capacity, equivalent to placing a bridging vessel on the left main trunk. Collateral circulation can buy time, but it is not an original coronary artery, flow is limited, and Red Sea risks persist; the anastomosis may still spasm. Brent falling and WTI rising also indicate the market does not consider supply disruption as the primary diagnosis but is performing intraoperative transesophageal echocardiography: looking for thrombi and pericardial effusion.
Regarding that US stock token, it is like a transplanted heart in the early postoperative ICU: following the US stock pulse during the day, relying on thin on-chain blood flow perfusion at night. If oil prices remain high due to localized geopolitical friction, inflation expectations act like increased afterload, discount rates like aortic clamping, myocardial oxygen consumption rises, and token prices will amplify volatility; if the conflict truly hits oil fields, refineries, and export terminals, supply gaps form, risk assets experience hypoperfusion, and token markets, due to thin liquidity, see blood pressure drop faster. But if bypass pipeline expansion succeeds and supply is not necrotic, the market will rapidly reperfuse, and reperfusion is most likely to induce arrhythmia—violent rebounds and secondary dips will alternate.
What needs to be done now is not emotional defibrillation but preoperative assessment: whether upstream capacity has necrosed, whether there are emboli in refining and export terminals, and whether the Red Sea left main trunk can open collateral circulation within the ischemic window. The separation curve between Brent and WTI on the monitor is more dangerous than the burn marks on those three floors.
If the Red Sea continues to spasm, the next operating table will not be the office building but the oil fields, refineries, and export terminals; by then, all risk assets will be pushed onto extracorporeal circulation, relying on machines to maintain blood pressure. #aramcohqattackoilrisk$XRP 永续100倍多单，1.2867开，现1.3356，浮盈+380.04%。
就是赌一个底部反转：1.2867 三次测试不破，量能阶梯式递减，底部特征很标准。等阳线拉起来那一刻进场，绝不提前猜底。100倍，止损 1.25。这一波走得非常干净，几乎没有回踩，大肉单到手。
暂时不动，让子弹飞一会儿。1.32 作为防守线先挂着保住本金安全，等 1.40 那边给明确信号再说加不减的事，不着急。$ETH $BTC #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ DOS一个每个做多做空交易员都爆仓的山寨币
本来一直看好DOS
DOS 是我认真看好过的币，所以 10 月 15 日 23:02 这张欧易截图，我盯着看了很久。DOS/USDT 永续 0.1726，24 小时 −9.01%，最高 0.1935，最低 0.1668，成交额 527.85 万 USDT，OI 只剩 103 万美元，顶上挂着新币种三个字。
最刺眼的是图里那两个极端值：0.7836 和 0.1197。一根针从上面扎到下面，(0.7836 − 0.1197) ÷ 0.7836 ≈ 84.7%。现在 0.1726 还在高点下方约 78% 的位置。EMA20 压在 0.1768，EMA5 0.1715、EMA10 0.1724 在脚边来回蹭，MACD 的 DIFF −0.0068、DEA −0.0076 都还在零轴下面。
庄家不庄家，是我这种被反复打疼的散户给自己找的词，我证明不了。但有个问题我确实想问：一个新上合约的币，允许一根针走完 84% 的价差，平台规则里那根线到底画在哪？异常波动怎么认定、插针时的强平怎么算、事后有没有一份公开说明，这些总得有人讲清楚。
币圈这几年最耗人的不是跌，是跌得没道理而你拿它没办法。身边本来想进来看看的人，现在连问都不问了。Move 40, the advantaged side pushes the queen to f6, the board looks like a kill, the opponent sacrifices a pawn to block the entire diagonal—this was the position ASML set up last night.
€16.2 billion in revenue? No, it's €11.662 billion in revenue with a 57.5% gross margin. This isn't just a tactical win; it's a complete dismantling of the opponent's piece structure along the entire diagonal. The Q4 guidance range of €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion is like pushing the passed pawn from the sixth rank directly toward promotion; raising the full-year guidance floor is like placing the rook on an open file to claim territory. But after hours, the stock price fell 3.9%, and the chip sector weakened overall—that's the pawn sacrifice on the board. Ordinary people only see a lost pawn; grandmasters see someone using that pawn to exchange control of the entire diagonal.
The real game point comes later. Customers are starting to ask about procurement for 2029 to 2030—that's a move fifteen steps ahead. But intention is not contract. Candidate moves don't count toward evaluation until the piece is placed on the board and the hand leaves the piece—that's the initiative. So the question now is never "Does demand exist?" but "Can demand be converted into irrevocable orders?" Supply may not keep up with demand in 2027 to 2028; this is an open midgame position left for the strong. Exploring additional capacity in 2028 is like moving the rook to the opponent's second rank, taking position first, but it also means that if the timing judgment is off by half a beat, you become the one whose pieces get exchanged away.
Look again at the linked stock $xORCL. It's not the main attack direction; it's the pawn chain on the king's wing—it doesn't bear the breakthrough task but senses first when the diagonal is opened. The chip sector's weakness is a lateral restraint; before this diagonal is torn open, it can only passively follow and passively contract its formation. Valuation concerns? That's not an endgame issue; it's a pawn structure problem: isolated pawns, doubled pawns, and hanging pawns still remain on the board, and one beautiful tactical victory won't solve it.
Capacity expansion is positioning; orders are real pieces. Whoever first turns inquiries into signed contracts pushes the pawn to the seventh rank, forcing the opponent to choose between promotion and losing material.
The board never lacks good moves, only the hand that dares to place a piece during the intention phase. #asmlq3revenuerecord#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点
Deliveries of 486,500 vehicles exceeded expectations, but the real direction is determined not by sales volume, but by the automotive gross margin in the October 21 earnings report. Sales increase does not necessarily mean profit increase.
The basis is straightforward. Q3 deliveries were 486,532 vehicles, about 5% above expectations, but still down 2.1% year-over-year, marking a quarter-on-quarter stabilization after two consecutive years of decline. More importantly, deliveries exceeded production by about 22,000 vehicles, marking the second consecutive quarter of inventory reduction. This growth relies on discounts, and the gross margin needs to be verified by the earnings report. HSBC has already lowered its EBIT forecast by 6% due to energy storage falling short of expectations.
Focus on whether the automotive gross margin can hold above 17% on October 21, and whether energy storage deployment can rebound from 13.7 GWh. Both need to be stable for a true recovery beyond expectations; missing one means sales are just inventory clearance.#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? Wash advocates weakening or even reducing traditional forward guidance and reforming the dot plot mechanism. The core logic: the dot plot is essentially just individual forecasts from each committee member, not a rigid policy commitment, but the market tends to treat the median of the dot plot as a fixed interest rate scenario, which easily creates strong expectation binding and restricts the Fed's flexibility. In an environment of recurring inflation and volatile data, Wash hopes to shift to a purely "data-dependent" model, giving fewer long-term path forecasts, retaining greater policy flexibility, and avoiding being trapped by previously given expectations.
At the trading level, the most direct impact is: the predictability of interest rate expectations decreases, and the volatility of CME interest rate futures and U.S. Treasuries will increase. Previously, the market mainly focused on the median of the dot plot to set the pace of rate cuts/hikes; after the reform, funds can only follow high-frequency data such as CPI, PPI, and nonfarm payrolls. Once data is released, rapid repricing is more likely, and high-beta assets, namely BTC and ETH, will experience more short-term fluctuations. Long-term consensus trades like "betting on early rate cuts" will be harder to execute.
Medium- to long-term narrative: under this model, the Fed retains the option to raise rates at any time, maintain high rates, or cut rates, which is a relatively neutral institutional adjustment and does not inherently represent easing. If inflation continues to rebound, it can release hawkish moves faster without being constrained by prior guidance; if inflation falls, it can flexibly start cutting rates. For the market, this means "more expectation noise and increased uncertainty," making it difficult to form a one-sided trend, and is more suitable for range-bound repeated fluctuations. #TradingVoice: Your experience deserves to be heard
$BTC $ETH $SOL A strong convective cloud cluster is forming above the artificial intelligence computing power belt, with cloud tops breaking through fifteen kilometers. Within ten minutes, the stock price pressure dropped sharply by 15.46%, and the yield on bonds maturing in 2032 once broke through the 15% red line—this is not an ordinary front passage, but a supercell formed by the frontal collision of a debt cumulonimbus and a computing power high-pressure ridge.
I have monitored too many such radar echoes in the duty room. At the end of June, total liabilities and lease obligations amounted to about $52.1 billion, while backlog orders exceeded $100 billion. Laypeople might say: with such a thick order book, what’s there to worry about? But the forecaster’s intuition tells me that orders are like water vapor in the upper atmosphere; water vapor does not equal precipitation. It must undergo lifting, condensation, and collision to become cash flow on the ground. The construction and computing power delivery of data centers are that lifting mechanism; if any link is stuck, the cloud will dissipate before your eyes.
The CEO says the market reaction is irrational and that long-term orders are sufficient to support debt repayment. This is equivalent in meteorology to saying: the model shows rain in the future, so there’s no need to worry about river levels now. But models and reality are two different things, and this round of relatively high U.S. inflation and weakening tech sector is like raising the surface temperature by several degrees, intensifying evaporation and convection.
The real risk is not on this day. It lies in whether this high-pressure system will move eastward and whether it will cut the moisture transport belt to the neighboring peers who also leverage computing power. Credit spreads have quietly widened, which is a sign of increasing pressure gradient; the wind hasn’t started yet, but the flags are already fluttering.
As for the gold token chain, the safe-haven airflow usually lifts before the storm, but this time its coupling with risk assets has become sticky—indicating the market hasn’t decided which direction to run and is just circling in place, waiting for the next sounding data.
The 15% bond yield is like a sounding balloon; it has already flown into the stratosphere. What comes next is whether orders can turn into received rain and whether leverage can withstand this downdraft. We will replot the data on the next earnings sounding.
Thunderstorm warning remains, observation continues. #coreweavestockbonddropGlassnode characterizes a “mild bear market”: long-term holders have seen realized losses drop by 85%, the daily closing price has not fallen below the “realized price,” fundamentally different from a deep bear market. **80,000-$81,500 is the final convergence point of multiple cost basis lines.
· Focus range: 80,000 is the short-term observation bottom line, 75,000 is a deeper liquidation cluster area.
· Right-side signals: need to wait for Wash’s speech to land + ETF funds to resume net inflows + price to recover above $82,000 with volume.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #Korean stocks fell nearly 8% intraday, global tech stocks collectively under pressure CFX——**0.0527-0.0531 was hit five times today with full volume rebounds: 11:00 0.05309, 13:00 0.05279, 14:00 0.05281, 21:00 0.0527, 22:00 0.053, and at 23:00 it was pulled up to 0.0553.
*EMA1000=0.0529 is today's solid support, tested five times.
1. **10:00 volume spike**: 1H volume 5.5M (10 times the usual), dropped to 0.0515 then closed at 0.0542 with a long lower shadow — SMC means **liquidity sweep + bear trap reversal**, sweeping stop-loss cluster below 0.0515 then pulling back
2. **Higher low sequence**: 0.0515 → 0.0527 → 0.0528 → 0.053, lows progressively rising
3. **Microstructure BOS**: 22:00-23:00 broke above 0.0547 (previous high before 21:00), 1H level structure reversal confirmed
4. RSI: **1H oversold at 26.9 only once this morning** (4H lowest 36, daily lowest 50, no oversold)
## What to do now (0.0553)
Structure has turned bullish, but **Warsh's speech is still 26 minutes away at 23:30**, don’t chase within 6 minutes before the speech:
- **Place buy orders at 0.0543-0.0547** (above EMA1000 + breakout retest), stop loss **0.0526** (below five lows, about -3.5%), target **0.057 for half position, 0.0585 for the rest**; 5x leverage, 20U
- If the speech is dovish and price rallies without pullback → abandon, do not chase 0.057; if hawkish and breaks 0.0526 → structure invalid, do not buy
- 0.057 is the lower edge of a three-day dense trapped zone, without volume breakout must take half profit# US CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, will there be more rate hikes this year? Sharing my personal view on Tesla's quarterly earnings report. Although currently betting Yes and experiencing a slight unrealized loss, I believe whether the earnings beat expectations cannot be judged solely by delivery numbers. The ongoing price war for vehicles continues to squeeze gross margins, which is the biggest pressure; however, FSD and energy storage businesses still hold imaginative potential. Market expectations have been repeatedly pulled back and forth, so even if delivery data looks good, profitability falling short of expectations is also very likely. Betting on this earnings report is essentially a game of expectation differences, with considerable risk, so I await the results calmly. ⚠️This is just a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Conclusion first: The 25% rally of $AKE today is not due to leveraged buying, but rather "someone front-running before the unlock."
Here are the data: At 16:00 today, the 4H candle showed 10.39 million tokens (≈$31 million) in a single bullish candle breaking through the 0.025-0.027 range that had been consolidating for four days; at 20:00, the price touched 0.0346 then pulled back leaving a long upper wick, now closing at 0.0318, up 25% in 24h with $90 million in volume.
But two numbers deserve a calm look:
① The funding rate remains at 0.005%. A 25% price increase without a change in funding rate means it’s not a leveraged short squeeze, but spot or preset positions pushing the price.
② Open interest is only $3.5 million, while volume is 25 times that—pure turnover, not new positions.
Key fact: According to RootData, about 2.1 billion AKE tokens will unlock on October 21 (accounting for 2.1% of total supply, ≈4.5% of current market cap, $53.65 million).
A 25% rally before the unlock means either front-running to sell or early accumulation. The answer depends on two points: whether the 0.029 breakout point after the unlock on the 21st holds, and whether the funding rate rises. Chasing the price before the unlock is a bet against the known supply shock.
On the 21st, will you hold or take profits first? $AKE Rumors behind the sharp drop make the heart tighten.
Recently, the market suddenly weakened, and the community has been spreading this news: Qian Zhimin's 61,000 $BTC was ordered confiscated by the Tianjin court, with an estimated value exceeding 30 billion. The release of such a large chip put obvious pressure on the market at the time, causing the market to dip. What everyone is most concerned about now is the subsequent disposal plan for this massive chip. After all, with such a volume, if it flows into the market all at once, the selling pressure is predictable.
One fact needs to be clarified first: from the "court accepting the confiscation application" to the "actual sell-off that crashes the market," there is still a long judicial process in between. The Tianjin Second Intermediate People's Court announced on October 13 that it accepted the prosecutor's application for filing, with a six-month announcement period, followed by trial procedures. This is completely different from the government directly liquidating assets.
So the current market situation looks more like an emotional joint squeeze rather than a single chip impact. 180,000 people were liquidated, $982 million evaporated, with 90% being long positions. The macro pressure brought by CPI exceeding expectations, combined with the news resonance of the Qian Zhimin case, led the market to complete a round of cleansing accordingly.After the Korean stock market circuit breaker and SK Hynix's original stock dropped 11% on the same day, $SKHY premium surged to 52.5%.
US liquidity is still somewhat better; in the past two days, the decline in Micron has been decreasing.
Planning to buy a TradingView membership in November, so I can share my own charts then.
For today, I can only share the code first: NASDAQ:SKHY*10/(KRX:000660/FX_IDC:USDKRW)-1The focus of this analysis is: This drop looks more like a chain sell-off triggered by concentrated liquidations of highly leveraged long positions, and the current rebound is not enough to prove that the market has reversed. However, some numbers in the text require attention to their timing, and there are also macro data points worth verifying.
1. Why did an $814 million liquidation occur?
Total market liquidation
$814M
Long liquidation proportion
84.6%
The above data is quoted from the original post; liquidation amounts vary depending on the statistical period and data platform.
Long liquidation means traders borrow money or use leverage to bet on price increases, but when the market moves downward, margin becomes insufficient, and the trading platform forcibly closes positions.
#TSMCQ3RecordProfit
#MetaMuseWonderUp3%
#BTCETFOutflowsReturn # TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Profit Hits Record High
After reviewing TSMC's 2026 Q3 financial report, overall it surpassed market expectations. Here are some brief thoughts:
1. Core Data: Quarterly revenue was NT$1.49 trillion (up 50.9% YoY), net profit NT$763.06 billion (up 68.7% YoY); USD revenue was $46.72 billion, exceeding the previous guidance upper limit of $44.6-45.8 billion, with an operating margin of 58.7%, reaching the guidance ceiling. Gross margin was 66.4%, slightly down quarter-on-quarter mainly due to normal dilution from 2nm mass production ramp-up, but overall profitability remains strong.
2. Demand Structure: High-performance computing (HPC) accounts for 68% of revenue and is the absolute growth driver; 7nm and more advanced processes account for 79% of wafer revenue, with 2nm shipments already reaching 8%. AI customer orders are far exceeding expectations.
3. Future Guidance: Q4 revenue is estimated at $52.3-54.3 billion, with the midpoint continuing strong quarter-on-quarter growth; full-year USD revenue growth forecast raised to 44%, while maintaining full-year capital expenditure at $60-64 billion unchanged.
Thoughts: The ongoing surge in AI computing demand supports high prosperity in advanced processes. However, in the long term, higher costs from overseas multi-site factories will continuously bring 3-4 percentage points of gross margin pressure, which is a variable to monitor going forward. Short-term prosperity is confirmed; mid-to-long term depends on capacity expansion and customer demand alignment. This week, CPI + PPI + retail overheating—why is the probability of a rate hike in December not higher than last week? The probability of a rate hike in October is also low; what is the reason?
Actually, after tonight's data release, this basically concludes this week's macro data. Given this data and the current high Brent prices, it's hard not to worry about inflation and rate hikes.
However, according to CME probabilities, as of now, the probability of a December rate hike only remains at 66%, which is actually lower than last week's 70%. Why is that? Is the market no longer worried about rate hikes and inflation?
Not really. The core issue is not that the market is not pricing in a December rate hike, but that it had previously priced in as high as 70%. Now that the data is out, the pricing has weakened. Once the October monetary policy meeting concludes, as long as inflation does not cool down, even if there is no rate hike in October, the December probability will still return to above 80%.
Most importantly, the current rate hike expectations are not limited to December; the market is pricing in another rate hike in Q1 next year. Currently, the probabilities for rate hikes in January and March are both approaching 50%, and this is the most concerning.
The continuous data releases this week not only reinforce the expectation of a December rate hike but also gradually bring forward the expectation of the rate hike cycle returning, which is the biggest trouble for risk markets!
Tightening interest rates does not 100% mean the market is returning to a bear market, but all positive factors will be suppressed and restrained! #USCPIandPPIsurpassexpectations, can there be another rate hike within the year? CPI has settled, FOMC is still far off, and DOGE has entered a two-week lull period.
The inflation data from October 14 has been digested, and the interest rate decision on October 28 is still distant. The market is like a machine that has shed its load, slowing down its speed. DOGE's trading volume is narrowing day by day, the candlestick bodies are getting shorter, and the buy and sell order books are thinning. Traders are reducing their positions, dimming their screens, waiting for the next catalyst.
The volume contraction and oscillation have their logic. Macro events are the fuel for crypto market volatility: CPI rewrites rate cut expectations, FOMC decides liquidity direction. When neither is present, large funds have no reason to adjust positions, short-term funds lose arbitrage opportunities, and prices get pinned within a narrow range. DOGE is especially like this—its elasticity always depends on external stimuli, whether it's Musk's moves or macro winds; when the wind stops, the boat just drifts.
But the lull is not a vacuum. The implied volatility curve shows traders are pricing for the end of October; market makers are lowering hedging costs, and leveraged funds are adjusting margin ratios. On the other hand, the shrinking volume means chips are changing hands at low levels, and holding costs are becoming concentrated. This kind of compression often lasts until the eve of the event, then is reignited by data or statements.
In the next two weeks, $DOGE is very likely to maintain a narrow consolidation. What’s truly worth watching is not the price, but when the volume curve bottoms out and rebounds—that usually reveals the market direction earlier than the FOMC statement.The focus of this analysis is: this drop looks more like a chain sell-off triggered by concentrated liquidations of highly leveraged long positions, and the current rebound is not enough to prove that the market has reversed. However, some numbers in the text need attention regarding their timing, and there are also macro data points worth verifying.
1. Why did an $814 million liquidation occur?
Total market liquidation
$814M
Long liquidation proportion
84.6%
The above data is quoted from the original post; liquidation amounts vary depending on the statistical period and data platform.
So-called long liquidation means traders borrow money or use leverage to bet on price increases, but when the market moves downward instead, margin becomes insufficient, and the trading platform forcibly closes positions.
#TSMCQ3RecordProfit
#TeslaQ3ProfitAndMargins
#KOSPIDropsNearly8% $SOL is currently at $101. But next Wednesday, the confirmation time on this chain will be reduced from 12.8 seconds to 0.15 seconds.
Last night, the CPI year-over-year was 3.7%, exceeding expectations; tonight, the PPI year-over-year is 6.3%, a full percentage point higher than expected. The crypto market saw $982 million liquidated in 24 hours, with 185,000 people liquidated, over 90% of whom were long positions. SOL dropped more than 4%, with futures contract liquidations around $31 million, 93% of which were longs.
Meanwhile, the US spot SOL ETF has had net outflows for 8 consecutive days, with $24.81 million outflow last week. Money on-chain is moving, macro money is moving. But there is something overlooked in the screenshot you took: the 1-hour RSI is pressed near 29, which is an extreme oversold condition—short-term bearish momentum has been excessively released.
Meanwhile, fundamental money is doing something else. Circle minted about 750 million USDC on Solana in the past 24 hours. The Alpenglow upgrade is scheduled to activate on October 21, reducing the final confirmation time from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds, an improvement of about 85 times.
ETF outflows reflect macro pricing, the upgrade reflects micro fundamentals. They are not on the same time dimension, but the price only reflects the former. The $100 level is not a technical level, it is a psychological level. What happens if it breaks? The market is already asking this question.#EarningsWatch: Recap and Outlook #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 Profit surged nearly 69% but the stock price didn't rally accordingly? This earnings report is quite interesting 👀
Today, TSMC officially released its Q3 earnings report, and the numbers are indeed strong.
Revenue reached 1.49 trillion TWD, a year-over-year increase of 50.9%.
Net profit after tax was about 763.1 billion, up 68.7% year-over-year, with EPS at 29.43 TWD.
Even more impressive, the Q4 revenue guidance is directly set at 52.3 to 54.3 billion USD, higher than Q3.
But I noticed a detail.
Q3 gross margin was 66.4%, which, although in line with the company's original expectations, declined from 67.7% in Q2.
This is why I think we can't just look at revenue hitting new highs.
AI demand is indeed very strong, and advanced processes continue to expand, but 2nm mass production, overseas plant construction, and equipment investments all require costs.
For the market, the current question may no longer be "Is there still demand for AI?" but rather how long can such high growth expectations continue to be exceeded?
Personally, I will be watching whether AI-related stocks like NVIDIA can hold steady and whether capital will continue to be willing to assign high valuations to the semiconductor sector.
After all, a good earnings report doesn't necessarily mean the stock price will rise.
Sometimes the market isn't dissatisfied with the company but rather that previous expectations were just too high.
What do you think? Has the positive news from TSMC already been priced in, or is there still greater growth potential in the AI industry?
$TSM $xTSM The real fear is not the unrealized loss, but realizing that when market sentiment is highly unanimous, you have become the minority. $ZEC dropped from 1285 to 1088, $ETH slid from 2800 to 2363, CAP crashed from 0.099 to 0.076 — all three short positions are in profit, about 120% for $ETH, about 225% for $ZEC, and about 44% for CAP. But the greener the screen, the more uneasy I feel, because behind every number is someone who bought at 1285 chasing the high, bottomed at 2800, and whose account is approaching zero. The most agonizing moment is not now. When I opened a short at 1405 and the price rebounded to 1384, I stared at the close position button for a long time. When your account shows unrealized losses, all trends and logic are swept away by emotions. I almost pressed it. I didn’t, not because I was firm, but because after scrolling through, the whole screen was shouting “halving,” “upgrade,” “privacy narrative.” I have seen this kind of uniform excitement too many times. The more lively it is, the more dangerous. Looking back now, the market has validated the judgment with price. But what really deserves caution are several unresolved clues behind the scenes: ETFs are still withdrawing funds, the NU7 decision has been postponed to the 20th, whales are rotating positions, and small coins are collapsing in a chain reaction. None of these variables have materialized yet, so I’m not in a hurry to exit. If you still want to bottom-fish now, ask yourself one question first: Are you truly bottom-fishing, or are you fueling someone else’s short position? $BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTCETFOutflowsReturn I still maintain a strategy of buying $PENDLE on dips because my goal is to lay an ambush for a huge RWA expectation.
Why is this called a "huge RWA expectation"?
1. The RWA market itself is expanding exponentially
Morgan Stanley predicts that by the 2030s, the tokenized RWA market size will reach between $2.3 trillion and $10 trillion, calling this forecast "undeniable." The tokenized RWA market has grown from about $10 billion at the beginning of 2025 to nearly $39 billion.
2. Pendle has secured a core position in the RWA yield layer
Pendle's RWA Stack TVL has surpassed $1 billion, covering assets such as government bonds, stablecoins, preferred shares, private credit, insurance, and commodities.
A hard mechanism of 80% revenue buyback is already in execution
3. Pendle uses up to 80% of protocol revenue to buy back PENDLE on the open market and distribute it to stakers. The buyback speed is more than 5 times the issuance speed, the annual inflation rate has dropped to 0.2%, and about 92% of sPENDLE holding addresses have never unstaked.
But "laying an ambush expectation" does not equal "guaranteed profit," and there are two major risks that must be acknowledged
First, protocol revenue has shrunk significantly from its peak.
Second, revenue is highly concentrated and dependent on Ethena.
This is a high-odds bet, but not risk-free. It suits those willing to trade time for high odds of reward $ETH $BTC $SOL BTC and ETH are currently rebounding, but in the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the network reached $913 million, with long position liquidations at $820 million, accounting for a high 89.8%, and over 170,000 accounts were liquidated.
Although the rebound has arrived, those positions forcibly closed cannot come back.
Looking at the order book transaction data: in the past 4 hours, active buying was $9.653 billion, active selling was $9.879 billion, with sellers accounting for 50.58%. The difference in buying and selling power is actually very small. The sell side has not formed an overwhelming crush, yet the bulls have borne the vast majority of liquidations—this is the harsh reality of leverage.
🔸 BTC: Focus on the sustainability of the rebound
A short-term surge is a positive signal, but the strength of support during the subsequent pullback phase is far more valuable as a reference than this sharp rise.
🔸 ETH: Waiting to reverse the weak trend
The past 24-hour decline was 2.19%, showing weaker performance than BTC and SOL. Only if this rebound continues to recover lost ground can repair momentum be confirmed.
🔸 SOL: Watch for the opportunity to shift from resistance to leading gains
Previously, it only dropped 0.53%, showing relative resilience. Next, it will be important to see if it can lead stronger gains when the overall market warms up.
⚠️ Note: This is a text rewrite only and does not constitute investment advice. Leveraged trading carries extremely high risk.
Community concise alternative:
BTC and ETH have started rebounding; 24h total network liquidations reached $913 million, with longs accounting for 89.8%, and over 170,000 accounts liquidated.
The rebound has come, but the chips washed out cannot return. The difference between buy and sell orders in the past 4 hours is small; there is no absolute short-side crush, yet bulls suffered widespread liquidations—this is the power of leverage.
✅ BTC: Easy to rally, key is support on pullback
✅ ETH: Previously clearly weak, watch if it can recover losses
✅ SOL: Early resilience, looking forward to leading gains next#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
Exploded! TSMC's Q3 far exceeded expectations, with two hidden signals in the market🔥
TSMC just delivered a stunning Q3: revenue surged 50.9% year-over-year, net profit soared 68.7% year-over-year, all surpassing expectations, with single-quarter profit hitting a record high!
The real hidden line is not in the numbers, but in the structure: 2nm accounts for 8%, advanced process accounts for 79%, and AI high-performance computing business supports nearly 70% of revenue, proving that global computing power capital expenditure is still racing ahead.
But beware: good news ≠ immediate one-sided surge! Past earnings reports often saw "expectations fulfilled, short-term selling pressure emerges" volatile market.
Short-term approach: first see if support holds, don't blindly chase news; if it can withstand profit-taking and hold key resistance levels, the mid-term upward logic will be further confirmed; if it pulls back first, it is actually a retest opportunity after fundamental verification.
It is not just a chip stock, but a "barometer" of the global AI industry chain—if it is strong, the underlying confidence in semiconductors, memory, and even risk assets is solid.【$ETH fell twice as hard as $BTC, bulls really got stunned this time】
In the past 24 hours, nearly $942 million in leveraged positions in the crypto market were liquidated, with bulls accounting for 91.6%. ETH liquidations were about $283 million, BTC about $196 million. ETH dropped over 5%, BTC about 2.5%, making Ethereum the hardest hit in this downturn.
ETH liquidation amount accounts for nearly 60%, which sounds scary, but don’t mistake the liquidation amount for actual capital outflow. What’s liquidated is the nominal value of leveraged positions, not the actual money traders lost. What’s really striking is that the open interest of ETH contracts is smaller than BTC’s, yet the liquidation amount is larger, indicating this drop hit ETH bulls especially hard.
With the Fed’s rate expectations fluctuating and risk assets under pressure, the previously accumulated leverage is now being repaid in concentrated fashion. It’s still too early to say ETH’s decline is over, and you shouldn’t rush to buy the dip just because of massive liquidations.
Next, watch two signals: whether open interest continues to decline after the price stops falling, and whether spot buying can hold. If leverage is fully cleaned out but no one steps in to buy, then it’s not just a liquidation stampede, but also a retreat of buyers.Is the Fed's "script" about to be torn up?**
Before: Forward guidance + quarterly dot plot was standard, giving the market a reference. In June, Waller refused to release his personal dot plot and cut the statement to 130 words, already showing signs.
Now: Waller is pushing to weaken or even cancel the dot plot, the statement no longer hints at the rate path; in September SEP, 16/18 officials expect another rate hike this year; after the September hike, other officials appeared publicly over 40 times, effectively "speaking" for him; there is already internal conflict within the Fed.
Afterwards: If this happens, volatility will spread from FOMC days to every data release day—each CPI and nonfarm payroll will become a "lottery day." The MOVE index for US Treasury volatility has reached 80.6, up 23% from the June low.
Impact: $BTC $ETH are most sensitive to macro data. With an uncertain rate path, risk assets are hard to price, and crypto market volatility will only amplify.
Do you think Waller's move makes the market more rational or more stimulated?
$BTC #KOSPI fell nearly 8% intraday, global tech stocks collectively under pressure I have summarized the known information and news! Currently, BTC and ETH are in a consolidation range. Personally, I am more bearish! Because the inflation data is bearish, the Federal Reserve's policy is hawkish, and the decline in the dollar and U.S. Treasuries is somewhat positive but cannot be the sole basis for a bullish view. The funding situation still needs confirmation, but currently, it is known to be negative. Looking at tonight's data, inflation is hot, consumption is strong, and layoffs remain low. This means the Federal Reserve lacks sufficient reason to quickly shift to easing in the short term. I personally think the direction is still bearish but will have a recovery. For BTC support, I personally look toward 80,000! For ETH support, I see around 2550. Resistance for BTC is near 82,000, and for ETH around 2430. We can wait a bit for Wash's speech to see if it is hawkish or dovish. #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ $OKB 增发不靠官网公告信不信，看合约有没有 mint 权限。OKB 这轮是直接把 mint 函数删了、总量写死 2100 万、链上黑洞地址可查，不是“我们承诺不增发”，是“代码层没这个功能”。Inflation data has exceeded expectations for two consecutive days, but the rate hike narrative is quietly shifting
For two consecutive days, both CPI and PPI have indicated that "inflation is spreading"
However, the market pricing for a rate hike in October is actually retreating. After the CPI release, it once surged above 50%, but after the PPI came out, it fell back to around 33%
Citibank changed its stance on the same day. Previously, it predicted that interest rates would remain unchanged for the year, but now it expects a 25 basis point rate hike in December. The market pricing for a December rate hike has already reached over 88%
Importantly, Wash will speak at the IMF meeting in Bangkok on Friday morning Beijing time, which is his last public statement before the October FOMC blackout period
He previously promised not to guide the market through short-term outlooks, but after inflation has consecutively exceeded expectations, the market will look for clues from his words on "whether he still insists on one rate hike within the year"
$BTC just briefly broke through 80,000, the price is falling, volume is increasing, some are rotating positions. Waiting to short at the rebound high, this position must not be chased
#USCPIandPPIsurprise, can there be another rate hike within the year? PPI surges (YoY +6.3%, a four-year high) and market reaction (10Y yield reverses down 14bp, DXY gives back all gains) form a "stagflation → recession" pricing shift — strong inflation data no longer boosts the dollar and yields, instead reinforcing the "rate hikes kill growth" narrative; Hormuz upgraded to a dual military system + WTI surpasses $96, putting October CPI gasoline forecast (-0.96%) at risk of upward revision, becoming the biggest swing factor for the December rate hike path; BTC breaks below $80,000 triggering a second wave of liquidations ($980 million), ETF large outflows resume, crypto weakens independently compared to gold (gold continues rising to $4,177) 牵一发而动全身，多头全面反抽，以太也未曾落后，按照剧本，回踩多，当前已有60点多空间，短线先收一波，早上那波小损不仅拿回来了还有多的。$SNDK 闪迪持续走弱，中长期维持看空判断。
存储赛道行情热度消退，闪迪近期连续回调，不建议盲目抄底。
此前该股积累了巨大涨幅，AI存储的利好预期已经提前反映在价格之中。叠加国内存储企业技术迭代、行业竞争加剧，以及CPI超预期引发的利率担忧，资金开始重新定价闪迪估值。
NAND需求虽有底，但无法阻止股价回调。高预期面临估值消化压力，股价仍存在下行空间。
中长期思路：持续关注该股做空机会。
下方重点目标区间：1250—1200。
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ 61,000 $BTC confiscated, why did the market suddenly "go weak"? 😰
The market suddenly weakened, and rumors spread wildly in the community — there has been substantial progress in the Qian Zhimin case. The Tianjin No. 2 Intermediate People's Court accepted the case on September 28 to confiscate illegal gains, involving more than 61,800 $BTC, valued at over 34 billion yuan.
With such a large volume, the market pressure is visibly significant. Previous analyses pointed out that this is even more troublesome than "Mentougou" — the UK government, motivated by fiscal deficits, has a clear intention to liquidate, and the expectation of selling pressure has long existed. Once the news broke, many funds hedged in advance, and the candlestick chart directly reflected this.
What is even more unsettling is the plight of the victims. The UK High Court ruled to apply Chinese law, meaning about 16,000 registered claimants may only recover their principal and interest, with the approximately 200-fold appreciation of Bitcoin unrelated to ordinary people.
The disposal plan for the large chips remains unclear, and concerns about concentrated releases still hang in the air. The market is inevitably under short-term pressure, but what really needs attention is the pace and method by which this massive asset will ultimately be realized. 🫠 #USCPI exceeds expectations, rising to 3.7%, tonight's PPI faces another test #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit a record high Bitcoin fell below 80,000 for the first time in a month, then bounced back
The 80,000 level was lost and then regained tonight. BTC briefly dropped to $79,775 tonight — the first time in a month it fell below $80,000, then quickly rebounded, now back around $81,500 (-0.5%).
The trigger was still PPI: September overall month-on-month +1.3% (expected +0.6%), annual rate 6.3%, the highest this year. With two consecutive inflation shocks, an interest rate hike in October is basically certain, and bears took the opportunity to push down the 80,000 level.
Interestingly, every time it hit near 80,000 this month, there was buying support: October 7, October 12, and tonight — three times it didn’t break through. $80,000 is the hardest floor in the entire market, but it has been tested three times in a month — no matter how hard the floor is, it can’t withstand daily pounding.
Risk warning: Macro data fluctuates sharply before and after, participate cautiously. For reference only, not investment advice.
#BTC#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
TSMC delivers another impressive report! 📈
Q3 net profit exceeded market expectations, setting a new all-time high, fully demonstrating the competitive advantage of advanced processes and the strong resilience of AI chip demand.
Against the backdrop of the ongoing AI computing power wave, TSMC, as a core link in the global semiconductor industry chain, not only reflects its own operational strength through its performance but also provides an important observation window for the entire AI industry chain.
Key points to watch next: 🔹 Whether AI demand can continue to support performance growth 🔹 Capacity expansion of advanced processes and advanced packaging 🔹 Future quarterly guidance and changes in capital expenditure
The AI narrative ultimately needs to translate into performance. TSMC's performance once again reminds the market: what truly matters is whether demand growth can continuously convert into profit.
#TSMC #台积电 #AI #半导体 #美股BTC · 148 characters — US Treasury yields capped at 5.3%, $80K is the key BTC level
The 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.3%, a new high in 24 years, raising the threshold for risk assets. BTC is currently around $83.5K, consolidating above $80K for three weeks without forming a bottom pattern; 86% of BTC inflows to exchanges in early October come from short-term traders taking profits, with $75K as the short-term cost line. A drop below $80K would indicate weakness. Which line are you watching? Tesla's Q3 deliveries exceeded expectations, but profitability remains uncertain. Price cuts squeezed gross margins, and high capital expenditures suppressed profits. Impressive delivery numbers alone are unlikely to make the overall financial report significantly surpass expectations.【The Fed doesn't want to give any direction, so where will the market go?】
Waller wants to reduce forward guidance and downplay or even cancel the dot plot. On the surface, this means the Fed will say less, but in reality, it throws the difficulty of guessing interest rates back to the market. Previously, traders could watch the dot plot to bet on rate cuts, but now they have to watch inflation, employment, and every data change themselves.
At the same time, US September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, and the market's bet on an October rate hike once surged close to 50%, then fell back below 40%.
This is the most awkward situation right now: inflation is still heating up, but the market finds it increasingly difficult to guess the Fed's next move. Today $BTC fell below $81,000, ETH also dropped, and the market has already voted with prices.
I don't think the absence of the dot plot is necessarily bearish, but when inflation is high, the market loses a reference point for anticipating policy, which may lead to greater volatility. Conversely, if inflation cools down later and officials' communication eases rate hike expectations, risk assets can still rebound. For now, don't rush to bet on what Waller says; first watch if inflation and capital flows turn together. #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
Currently, the market is more inclined towards no rate cuts, with the US dollar and US Treasury yields rising, causing BTC and ETH to fall accordingly.
Therefore, the current outlook on BTC and ETH remains bearish, heavily influenced by macro factors. However, there is some positive news as the decline in the US dollar and US Treasury yields has led to a rise in gold.
Inflation stickiness is confirmed, indicating a clear bearish trend, which means the market is choosing to absorb negative factors. Cryptocurrencies are under pressure, and Bitcoin's support level is likely to drop again.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Wow, inflation clearly isn't going to give the Federal Reserve any face.
CPI rose, and PPI surged as well. I originally thought they would go the rate cut route, but inflation suddenly pulled a surprise attack, and the Fed probably has to rub its temples.
More rate hikes by the end of the year? In my view, this really isn't something to take as a joke.
For the crypto world, the biggest fear isn't the rate hikes themselves, but the market's expectation of easing that keeps getting delayed.
If the dollar continues to strengthen, risk assets could come under pressure. Bitcoin still has to watch the mood of the US stock and bond markets, and those altcoins propped up by sentiment will probably suffer even more.
But I don't think that just because inflation exceeds expectations, you should immediately rush in to short.
The market trades on expectations. If bad news is priced in early, when the news actually lands, there might be a rebound instead. You think you're shorting with the trend, but the market flips the script on you: you understood the news, but not the market movement. 😂
Going forward, I'll be closely watching the Fed's stance, as well as changes in the dollar and US bond yields. The risk of rate hikes is worth guarding against, but blindly chasing shorts is not advisable.
You can be bearish on the market, but don't let your brain go short with it.
What do you think, will the Fed hike rates again by the end of the year? If they do, will Bitcoin dive straight down, or will it first shake out the shorts before falling?
Let's chat in the comments and see who the real prophet is! 🤣
$BTC $ETH #USCPIandPPIsurpriseexpectations,WillThereBeMoreRateHikesThisYear $SOL is just 0.46 away from falling below 100, tonight's market is the worst for it
Once PPI came out at 6.3%, the market immediately accelerated downward. $BTC dropped to a low of 79725, $ETH to 2315, but SOL was the harshest, bottoming at 100.46, just 0.46 dollars away from losing triple digits, now barely back to 103.8
Why is SOL the weakest? Look at the funding rates, SOL's rate turned negative, shorts started collecting money, longs can't even afford the interest. The open interest hasn't dropped much, indicating longs are still holding on hard. BTC has ETF support, ETH has institutional attention, SOL relies on ecosystem and sentiment; when macro tightens, it's the first to be sold off
The 100 level is very critical; holding it might bring a short-term rebound, but the rebound is also an opportunity to reduce positions. If it breaks, triple digits won't hold, possibly dragging the whole market further down
I have no positions now, not planning to bet on direction here, waiting for SOL to clarify its move
Do you think SOL can hold 100 tonight?
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be more rate hikes this year?
#Solana mainnet speed-up, will node thresholds rise?
#Solana tokenized stocks trading volume exceeded $4.4 billion in September #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, earnings hit a record high
TSMC's quarterly report looks really good, with both revenue and profit significantly increased. But going forward: several major AI companies have already started to compete on price, model iterations are getting faster, and customers may not blindly stack cards like in the past two years. If there really is excess capacity in infrastructure, TSMC's growth rate is very likely to slow down and won't remain this exaggerated.Brothers, today is a Black Thursday for the entire market. I've sorted out the reasons for the decline; three negative factors are linked one after another, each more frightening than the last.
First, last night the US CPI inflation data rebounded sharply, heating up expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike. The most direct result of a rate hike is that market interest rates are continuously pushed higher.
The second negative factor is that AI cloud provider CoreWeave is facing a debt crisis, with both its stocks and bonds plummeting. This company's model is simple: borrow money at high interest to buy Nvidia graphics cards, then rent out computing power to earn the spread. Last night, its bond yield surged directly to 15%, which is its future borrowing cost.
Combined with the Fed's rate hike expectations, the market is starting to worry whether it can repay on time with such high leverage and expensive debt, and whether the debt chain will collapse. If the AI industry explodes rapidly and generates massive cash flow, the market would still be willing to tolerate it.
Then the third scary story came: the latest news is that Anthropic's revenue growth has slowed significantly. Borrowing is getting more expensive, debt is piling up, but whether revenue growth can keep pace with the cash-burning expansion is a big question mark.
So today's sharp drop is caused by the simultaneous outbreak of three problems: inflation rebound, rising financing costs, exposure of debt risks in computing power companies, downward revision of AI growth expectations, and collective pressure on high valuations.
If the Fed launches another round of rate hikes, the risk-free rate could easily reach 6%. Who would still want to stay in the stock market to bear the risk? There is already capital bottom-fishing US Treasuries for safety, and Treasury yields are plunging accordingly.
$CRWV $ANTHROPIC