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PPI debuts tonight Whether inflation triggered by energy prices has truly spread to other sectors will be revealed at 8:30 With last night's core CPI data strengthening, PPI is very likely to also exceed expectations, which could push rate hike expectations up another notch So don't go long tonight, prepare for the final jump Bitcoin looks to pierce the 8,000 level with a needle, Ethereum at 2320, Gold at 4070 Blur's official website is shutting down, but the token surged 28%? Don't catch this kind of "shutdown + acquisition" fireworks with your hands Blur itself just officially announced on the 12th that the frontend will shut down on November 12, and the new Blend lending will also stop. This former Ethereum NFT leader's trading volume has dropped by over 99%, basically heading towards obsolescence. However, on the 13th, Sushi's CEO retweeted saying "interested in discussing acquisition," and the token bounced out of the pit, surging up to +28% today to 0.0133. Let's pour some cold water first: they only said they're willing to communicate, no price or terms were mentioned, so it's far from a real acquisition; plus, no one can clearly explain what use taking over a frontend that's about to shut down would have for the BLUR token. On the market, OKEx spot 24-hour volume is only about 1.51 million USDT, RSI is already at 81 overbought, and the price has surged beyond the Bollinger upper band at 0.0124. This is a typical thin market short squeeze fireworks—rises fast, crashes even more irrationally. Watch for one signal: whether the acquisition talk turns from a verbal statement into a real announcement, and whether volume can hold above the intraday high of 0.0135; relying only on the word "discuss" to hold up, once the hype fades, this kind of token usually falls back down as fast as it rose. DYOR, not investment advice. #BLUR #NFT #Sushi#US Considers Easing Oil Tanker Sanctions to Promote Direct Diesel Supply from Russia $BTC Last time it was the cargo that was loosened, this time it's the ships under consideration. ▪️ On 10/14, US officials revealed they are considering easing sanctions on certain "shadow fleet" oil tankers ▪️ These involve vessels previously listed for transporting oil products from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela ▪️ The plan is to allow these ships to resume transporting "legal oil" not prohibited by US sanctions ▪️ The reason given is that tanker freight rates have surged to record highs ▪️ On 10/9, General License No. 135 was issued, authorizing the sale, delivery, and import of Russian diesel ▪️ This license is valid until April 7, 2027; Russia has committed to supplying 300,000 tons in October The disagreement is not about whether sanctions will be eased, but whether the two rounds of easing apply to the same thing. Last time, the cargo was allowed: diesel could be sold, unloaded, and brought into port. This time, the focus is on allowing the ships that carry the cargo—the same vessels previously listed due to transporting sanctioned oil products. Cargo and ships are two separate locks; opening only the cargo lock doesn't reduce freight costs. The key to whether the supply chain is open depends on whether shipowners and insurers accept the orders. The direction is to wait and see—only when shipowners actually take orders and freight rates fall can the channel be considered open; if it remains in the discussion stage, it is just an expectation.Buy $BNB or buy $OKB? Although they are both exchange platform tokens, their development approaches are actually different: 1. BNB aims to build its own crypto kingdom, basically cutting into all Web3 ecosystems: meme launchpad with four.meme; prediction market with predict.fun; decentralized exchange with $ASTER; public chain with BSC chain; RWA is also booming... It even hasn't missed out on VC business, with YZi Labs. It’s very much like the Tencent of Web3, wanting to get involved in every profitable business in the industry. 2. OKB actually wants to build Web3 financial infrastructure, and it’s compliant infrastructure. So you’ll find many of OKX’s moves are very restrained. For example, the prediction market, OKX just treats it as an Outcomes event, probably due to compliance concerns. But for compliant things, OKX does very well, like the OKX wallet, which veteran users basically all use because it’s so powerful. For example, Dapp data is so comprehensive, much better than neighboring wallets. Also, OKX Pay, RWA, Exchange OS, etc., are all following the "on-chain trading + real-world payment + asset settlement" financial infrastructure path. One has a market cap of 100 billion, the other 2.5 billion. Both can be bought and both have opportunities for token price surges. #OKXMillionPlanner $ETH 2400直接炸穿了 $ETH 低点打到2310附近 现在在2370来回震荡 之前大家说的双底，已经破掉了 回看走势：8号的2400只是一根针，13号又试探了一次支撑，今天直接实体跌破 这不是简单洗盘，是地板支撑直接被抽掉 之前2580喊V反的、2500说稳住的、2400咬定是铁底的，现在全部被套 2700附近进场的人，想要回本，行情得拉接近两成 还有不少人还在死守信仰 盘面走势已经走弱，CPI落地之后，多头比数据率先扛不住 这个阶段不要着急抄底，很容易抄一次破一次 2300下方还有下行空间 反弹的时候别盲目乐观，很多反弹是上方资金借机离场 反弹结束继续下砸，现在多头头寸很容易成为行情下跌的燃料$ETH Detailed Reasons for Today's Gold Price Increase Last night, the CPI data exceeded expectations, causing an instant sharp drop in gold prices, which was a short-term panic sell-off. Today’s movement is a rebound recovery after an oversell, not the start of a new bullish trend. 1. Federal Reserve officials' remarks ease rate hike expectations (most crucial) After the CPI release, the market briefly bet on another Fed rate hike, but Fed officials later expressed dovish views, indicating no immediate need to raise rates. The market lowered the probability of a rate hike, and long-term U.S. Treasury yields fell from highs. Gold is a non-yielding asset; as Treasury yields decline, the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases, leading to capital flowing back into gold and pushing prices up. 2. U.S. Dollar Index decline Cooling rate hike expectations weakened the dollar. Since gold is priced in dollars, a weaker dollar lowers the cost for overseas buyers to purchase gold, increasing demand and supporting gold price gains. 3. Technical aspect: short-term oversell + short sellers taking profits The previous night’s rapid sharp drop allowed many short positions to profit. Today, shorts are closing positions, passively pushing gold prices higher; simultaneously, the low price attracts short-term bottom-fishing funds, creating rebound momentum. 4. Medium- to long-term buying support Global central banks continue to buy gold, maintaining a base position that absorbs some selling pressure after sharp declines, limiting further deep drops and facilitating rebound recovery. Current Market and Key Levels Resistance: 4170 (strong resistance; only if this level is firmly broken will rebound space open) Support: 4100, 4075 Key point: This is currently just a rebound, not a reversal. If U.S. Treasury yields rise again later, the rebound rally may end and prices will face renewed pressure 深V过后，三个信号比反弹更真实 急跌是多头爆仓砸的，17万人清算，8.15亿蒸发，多单占6.89亿。拉升只是补流动性缺口，没新钱，算修复。再跌因ETF买盘疲软，接不住。 信号一：巨鲸默默吸。持仓升至303万枚BTC，ETF年内从流出8.3万枚转为净入2300枚。大钱和小散不在一个节奏。🐋 信号二：散户退，机构加杠杆。9月机构USDT借款增83.3%，散户降17.2%。筹码向少数人集中，比K线诚实。📊 信号三：MSTR溢价消失。Strategy持84.8万枚BTC，约706亿，市值仅511亿。发股买币从溢价变折价，周期逻辑变了。🔄 深V只是表象，真正变的是资金结构和定价逻辑。个人分析，不构成投资建议。$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 As soon as the inflation data hits, does $BTC drop first out of respect? The real test is yet to come📊 Last night, the US September CPI was released: year-on-year 3.7%, higher than expected, core at 2.6%, with gasoline prices adding fuel to the fire. BTC slid from 83,000 to below 82,000, billions of dollars in long positions were liquidated, and the market instantly turned red. US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthened simultaneously, putting pressure on risk assets collectively. But one data point does not signify the end of the trend. Energy disruptions involve Middle East factors; core inflation is sticky but not runaway. High interest rates suppress valuations in the short term, but BTC's long-term narrative remains intact; ETF funds flow in and out, so don’t directly interpret this as institutional withdrawal. Panic often amplifies volatility more than data. The real focus is on the 15th: PPI will show production-side pressure, retail sales will reflect consumer resilience, and combined with Federal Reserve officials’ statements, interest rate expectations may be repriced. If data cools down, hopes for a pause in rate hikes will return; if it exceeds expectations again, the crypto market will inevitably remain under pressure. My stance: no rush to bottom-fish, no panic selling. Wait for data and capital to give direction before making a move. The more chaotic the market, the steadier your hand must be—don’t let emotions trade for you🧘‍♂️#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $ETH current status: around 2368, 24-hour -5%, intraday range 2342–2425 Compared with yesterday's forecast: • 2400 did rebound today — intraday high reached 2425, but failed to hold, now back below 2400. This means the "1-hour close above 2400" bullish signal appeared but did not sustain, a false breakout style pullback, market strength confirmation still pending • 2479 not reached yet, not even touched, upper resistance remains effective • 2313 / 2296 bottom lines temporarily safe — today's low was 2342, still some distance from the weekly bottom line 2296, bears haven't pushed lower So according to my system, the current state can be summarized as: weak pullback confirming resistance, direction choice not made yet. Observation points remain unchanged, and because today's pullback failed, the signal's weight is actually clearer: 1. Break 2400 again and hold 1-hour close → only then is there a chance to test 2479; today's move reaching 2425 then falling back shows active selling pressure around 2400–2425 2. If each pullback is lower (2425 → a lower secondary high), then breaking 2342 → high probability to retest 2313, even 2296 3. Breaking 2296 → according to your rules, weekly structure fails, turning bearish In 2025, the number of NFT issuances will increase to 1.34 billion, but the transaction volume will drop 37% year-on-year to $5.63 billion, with the average transaction price falling below $100. The market's speculative enthusiasm has significantly cooled, but the continued expansion on the supply side itself indicates that the underlying demand has not disappeared. The value logic of NFTs is undergoing a structural transformation. The 1.0 era dominated by speculative avatars has ended, and the next growth phase will be driven by tokenized physical assets—Pokémon cards, Rolex watches, digital tickets, and game items are becoming the new narrative core. Naver Pay has implemented NFT digital tickets at the National Sports Games, integrating entry verification and tourism consumption rights, proving that NFTs as "usable, redeemable digital rights certificates" have real commercial scenarios. The maturity of technical infrastructure supports this transformation. Layer 2 solutions like Immutable X have reduced NFT transaction costs to nearly zero and increased throughput to over 9,000 TPS, systematically resolving the efficiency bottlenecks that have long constrained large-scale applications. Robinhood Chain, launched less than two months ago, has daily NFT transaction volumes exceeding twice that of the Ethereum mainnet, validating the ability of a low-threshold on-chain environment to stimulate user demand. #索尼财报前瞻：游戏与音乐业务表现如何？ #OKX星球话题来啦 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #Can SanDisk's storage business high growth continue? SanDisk's report on October 29: Revenue forecast of 10.3-10.8 billion, but stock price plunged nearly 6%—Changxin's breakthrough triggers sector revaluation, was the NAND leader mistakenly sold off? SanDisk (SNDK) will release its FY2027 Q1 earnings report after the U.S. market closes on October 29. Revenue forecast: the company previously expected quarterly revenue between 10.3 billion and 10.8 billion USD. Core driver: With the growth in AI data center demand and rising NAND flash prices, the market is focused on whether the storage business can sustain high growth and further boost profits. Community viewpoints highlighted that the recent pressure on the storage sector was mainly triggered by Changxin Technology's breakthrough, which led the market to collectively reprice the entire storage sector. At the same time, some market opinions warn of risks: the rebound in storage stocks after the sharp drop is an oversold rebound rather than a trend reversal. This means sector sentiment has not fully recovered, and capital is still cautious. Changxin's breakthrough suppresses DRAM valuations, while SanDisk operates in the NAND business—amid this round of collective repricing in the storage sector, is SanDisk a high-quality asset that was "mistakenly sold off," or just a cyclical stock following the trend? The October 29 earnings report will be a key moment to verify its independent logic.The US September CPI was released last night: year-on-year 3.7%, higher than August's 3.4%; excluding food and energy, the year-on-year rate is 2.6%. In the same report, seasonally adjusted gasoline prices rose 9.1% in a single month, contributing more than half of the overall monthly increase. Declaring "inflation is out of control across the board" just because of 3.7%, or saying "it's nothing" based on 2.6%, only shows half the picture. A sharp rise in gasoline prices does not mean every item increased by 9.1%; the core rate being lower than the overall rate also doesn't mean you can just remove fuel costs from your living expenses. I want to see clearly where the price increases are concentrated before discussing sustainability. Data is not meant to give bulls and bears each a hammer to hit whichever number suits their view. $BTC #软银集团加码OpenAI，财报聚焦投资回报 On October 1, SoftBank dropped the final $10 billion to complete its $30 billion follow-up investment plan in OpenAI, but on October 13, its stock price plunged 8.5% in Tokyo, down 38% from its all-time high. Borrowing at a high 9.75% interest rate to invest in OpenAI, stock price has already dropped 38% SoftBank is indeed ruthless this time. The last $10 billion arrived on October 1, fully fulfilling the $30 billion follow-up investment plan, with a total investment of $64.6 billion and about 13% ownership. All the money is borrowed. On September 24, it issued bonds worth about $11.1 billion, maturing as late as 2034, with a coupon rate as high as 9.75%. Borrowing high-interest debt to invest in OpenAI, which has not yet gone public, this calculation is indeed risky. On October 13, the stock price plummeted 8.5% to ¥5310, down 38% from the June 2 high of ¥8632. Without decent returns in the earnings season, the market will not hesitate to sell off. TSMC's profit soars 69%, is the AI boom stable now? TSMC's net profit for Q3 increased by about 69% year-on-year, reaching NT$763.1 billion, with revenue around NT$1.494 trillion, both hitting new records and profits exceeding market expectations. Judging by this report alone, AI chip demand is indeed still very strong. But what I think is truly worth watching is not just the new highs, but the costs and expectations behind this high growth. Advanced processes, 2-nanometer ramp-up, and overseas factory construction all require heavy investment; TSMC's capital expenditure guidance for this year remains between $60 billion and $64 billion. The market now wants to know: can AI demand visibility extend to 2027? Can profit margins withstand the costs of capacity expansion? This is also why a good earnings report doesn't necessarily mean the stock price must rise. The stock price trades on "whether results exceed already high expectations," not just on whether the numbers look good enough. If everyone bets on AI's continued explosion, even strong performance can lead to profit-taking if future guidance doesn't get raised further. High-performance computing already accounts for about 68% of revenue; the stronger AI gets, the more the market depends on this growth mainline. TSMC's real watershed moment may not be whether it can still grow, but how high the market has raised growth expectations for the AI industry chain. Do you think the market is currently underestimating the sustainability of AI demand, or has it already priced in the good news for the next few years? #TSMC Q3 net profit beats expectations, profits hit record high $TSM 在两次测试 87,000 美元附近的阻力位后，比特币价格开始出现回调迹象。 昨天的 3D 蜡烛图显示出下跌锤头线，比特币在经历了 3 个多月的反弹后，实际上已经进入了调整阶段。 要判断比特币在中期内是否会出现回调，我们需要等到本周结束，看看周线收盘情况如何。$BTC #BlackRock Crypto Asset Scale Grows 63% [Old Leek Observation] BlackRock's crypto asset scale grew 63% in a single quarter. Have institutional funds really returned? BlackRock's digital asset management scale rose to about $79.6 billion in the third quarter, up $30.8 billion from $48.8 billion in the previous quarter. This increase alone is indeed impressive. But what I care more about is where exactly this $30.8 billion came from. According to data breakdowns from related reports, about $22.9 billion came from the rise in crypto asset prices, and about $7.9 billion came from net capital inflows. In other words, the bulk of the scale growth is due to the paper gains from price increases, not because institutions suddenly poured in hundreds of billions. However, the net inflow itself is still worth noting. It indicates that investors did increase their allocations that quarter, and institutional demand is not entirely propped up by market conditions. For $BTC and $ETH, this set of data provides a direction for observation: if subsequent funds continue to flow in, even if prices pull back, institutional buying could become a supporting force in the market; but if net inflows quickly weaken, the rise in management scale cannot be simply interpreted as a long-term bullish signal. Don't just focus on BlackRock's asset scale hitting new highs; what really matters is: how much new capital it can attract next quarter. Scale growth reflects the past; sustained net inflows better indicate what the funds intend to do next. $ZEC #ASML Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Can Future Demand Be Realized? $ASML Revenue increased by 25% quarter-over-quarter, profit rose by 70%. ▪️ Q3 net sales €11.662 billion, about +25% QoQ, first quarter to surpass €10 billion ▪️ Net profit €4.96 billion, about +70% QoQ; gross margin 57.5% ▪️ Net sales near the high end of previous forecast range, full-year outlook raised for the third consecutive quarter ▪️ Some customers have started order discussions for 2029–2030 equipment ▪️ Stock price down −2.49% on the day of earnings release The disagreement is not about whether this quarter beat expectations, but why revenue and profit grew at different rates. The cost of a lithography machine mainly lies in R&D and capacity. The additional unit sold spreads the fixed costs already paid. Revenue +25%, profit +70%, this difference is operating leverage: equipment manufacturers earn not from each unit sold, but from capacity utilization — the marginal cost of selling one more unit is very low. The outlook is cautious — gross margin must hold above 58% and order visibility must continue to expand to be considered fulfilled; otherwise, leverage could work in reverse.#闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ 标题：沙特阿美总部遇袭起火，布伦特原油反而收跌0.9%——地缘溢价为何这次不灵了？ 市场关注冲突是否进一步波及油田、炼厂及出口终端，以及设施安全与运输风险能否影响实际原油供应和国际油价。能源巨头高管已开始退出相关活动，中东能源设施安全风险实质性升级。 市场用“布伦特收跌”告诉投资者：地缘政治的定价权，只属于“实际断供”，而不属于“象征性袭击”。只要油田和港口安然无恙，油价就难以重演“恐慌性暴涨”的剧本。2026年10月14日，油价上行、核心CPI超预期与AI信用风险升温构成“三重打击”，触发全市场抛售。 真正主导力量是火热的核心CPI。数据广泛性通胀压力打破“忽略能源波动”的幻想，10月加息概率一度突破50%，12月概率冲上95%。短端收益率率先飙升，随后股市加速下跌引发债券买盘回流，10年期收益率从日内高点回落，但仍收高。市场开始消化明年再加息两次的预期。信贷端裂隙扩大，CRWV债券跌至70美元区间，数据中心相关利差指数级走阔，CCC级利差突破1000基点，IG与HY利差重新逼近前期高位，科技板块信贷表现垫底。 股市交投活跃度明显上升。NDX与RTY领跌约2%，为6月以来最大单日跌幅；道指相对抗跌，标普居中。AI概念股本周累计跑输剔除AI后的标普500达840个基点。CoreWeave午盘暴跌15%，DOCN、HUT、NBIS等同步重挫，ORCL跌9%。高德纳报告称，若AI资本开支按当前节奏推进，至2030年80%的NeoClouds将难以独立运营，进一步加剧对循环融资与信用传染的担忧。Mag7集体走弱，金融板块因美国银行财报不及预期拖累。标普已跌破7750–7775正伽马支撑区间Rising CPI makes Fed rate cuts increasingly unlikely. Cutting rates too early could fuel spending and undo progress toward the 2% inflation target. Markets may hope for easier money, but the Fed cannot ignore persistent price pressures. Higher-for-longer rates could weigh on Bitcoin, altcoins, and stocks as liquidity stays tight. Until inflation cools convincingly, holding rates steady looks more realistic than cutting. #CPI #Fed #Crypto #USCPI3.7%PPIInFocus $BTC On-chain spot demand increased by 69,000 coins, so why can't it withstand over 100 million in forced liquidations within an hour? Data disclosed by CryptoQuant on October 14 shows that after two months of contraction, total Bitcoin demand has recently rebounded by about 69,000 BTC, indicating that spot buying is indeed recovering. However, on the same day, CoinGlass statistics showed that within just one hour after the US September CPI release, over $100 million in leveraged positions were liquidated in the crypto market, with total liquidations exceeding $220 million in 24 hours. BTC OKX spot is 80898.8, SUI OKX spot is 0.9844. The contradiction here is clear: spot buying accumulates slowly over weeks and months, while high-leverage contracts get trampled within minutes in the face of macro shocks. Slow spot buying can't save fast leverage. I judge that until the existing long leverage in the contract market is completely cleared, the cyclical demand recovery of 69,000 coins alone is insufficient to immediately trigger a V-shaped reversal. In the coming week, BTC will likely continue to oscillate and trade between 79,500 and 82,500, and SUI, having fallen below 1, will be constrained below 1.05 in the short term. If the overall contract funding rates across the network turn significantly negative and BTC volume surges back above 83,800, then the consolidation and bottoming judgment will be invalid. $BTC $SUI #OnChainDataAndLiquidations# TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Profit Hits Record High • Core Beneficiary of the AI Wave: Revenue and net profit reached record highs, mainly driven by strong global demand for high-performance computing (HPC) and AI chips. TSMC's absolute technological leadership in advanced processes (such as 3nm and 5nm) makes it an indispensable leader. • Extremely Strong Profitability: Gross margin approaches 68%, demonstrating its very high bargaining power with downstream customers (such as Apple, NVIDIA, etc.), and the yield and capacity utilization of advanced processes remain high. • Market Sentiment Optimistic but Stock Price Calm: Although the financial report data exploded, the chart shows that related targets (TSM, xTSM) only rose slightly by 0.08% and 0.04% respectively, reflecting that the market had already priced in the positive news before the earnings release. Going forward, attention should be paid to the future pace of capacity expansion and potential geopolitical risks. #Anthropic称三季度营收升至168亿美元并实现盈利 $ANTHROPIC Revenue increased 20 times year-over-year, but quarter-over-quarter dropped from 143% to 46%. ▪️ Q3 revenue $16.8 billion, quarter-over-quarter +46%, approximately 20 times year-over-year, and achieved quarterly profitability ▪️ Revenue path: Q1 $4.73 billion → Q2 $11.5 billion → Q3 $16.8 billion ▪️ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate Q2 +143% → Q3 +46%, down two-thirds over three quarters ▪️ $16.8 billion is at the lower end of the market expectation range of $16–18.5 billion ▪️ The company is seeking investor support for the IPO expected to launch in November The disagreement is not about whether it is profitable, but which is closer to the current situation: "20 times" or "46%". The 20 times year-over-year uses a very small base from last year, while the 46% quarter-over-quarter is its current speed. $16.8 billion is still at the lower end of the expected range—the market optimism has already gotten ahead of the numbers. The direction is to wait and see — Q4 quarter-over-quarter must hold above 40% for the curve to hold; if it continues to decline, the valuation anchor needs to shift to the annualized column.#Korean stocks fell nearly 8% intraday, global tech stocks collectively under pressure The South Korean stock market completely collapsed today. The KOSPI fell nearly 8% intraday, directly triggering a circuit breaker and halting trading. Samsung Electronics dropped over 8 points, SK Hynix fell more than 7 points, and the Nikkei 225 also dropped over 4%. Overnight in the US, the Nasdaq fell 1.88%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has been falling for six consecutive trading days. The entire global tech sector is taking a beating, each worse than the last. Why such a sharp drop? The US September CPI exceeded expectations, reigniting fears of interest rate hikes. AI infrastructure financing costs are rising, tech stock valuations were already high, and the storage industry faces intense competition. ASML's earnings report clearly showed strong equipment demand, but investors are not buying it; they are recalculating whether AI investments can actually pay off. TSMC's earnings report has become the next key verification to watch. So what impact does this have on our crypto space? I'll tell you two points. First, global tech stocks are collectively under pressure, so risk appetite will definitely decline. Second, it's still unclear whether this round of adjustment is a valuation correction triggered by high interest rates or if semiconductor profit expectations are starting to weaken. If it's the former, the market can recover after the drop. If it's the latter, the entire AI hardware narrative will need to be repriced. My view is simple. In the current market, don't rush to bottom-fish tech stocks or Bitcoin. Wait for TSMC's earnings report to see if the real demand for AI hardware has collapsed before making a decision. What do you think? $BTC $ETH Volume increase ≠ revenue growth, don't skip the second verification Scaling up business is like opening a floodgate, the sound of water is loud, but accounts must be calculated separately. $HYPE: When cutting fees to grab volume, don't just focus on transaction amount. If the rate is cut to one-tenth of the original, volume must increase tenfold to break even; if not, it's exchanging revenue for hype. Later, look at effective rates, real income, and repurchase retention (￣▽￣)~* $AAVE: Raising the ceiling just moves the limit, it doesn't mean borrowing demand will automatically fill it. Check utilization rate and whether new loans cluster in a few assets. Capacity is permission; income depends on actual lending 😉 $XRP: More accounts don't equal equivalent buy orders. Minimum reserves and designated reserves occupy funds; rules or deletions change net occupancy. It's better to look at net new accounts and net occupancy changes, not directly translate account growth into buying demand 🤔 In short: scale is the entry point, quality is the exit. Transaction amount, limits, and account numbers are just the first half; income, utilization, and net occupancy are the second half (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧ #US CPI unexpectedly rises to 3.7%, PPI faces another test tonight #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit record high #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins Whale Showdown ⚔️ Big Bro Maji · Tough Holding Watchlist $BTC: Average price 84,700, liquidation at 71,600, holding 390 coins, heartbeat follows the K-line 😬 $ETH: Entered at 2545.84, triggered stop at 2489.81, unrealized loss 238,000🔥 $HYPE: Liquidation at 57, holding 169,000 coins, unrealized loss 230,000📉 Biggest risk: Single-day funding fees burned $1.18 million, breaking the line may trigger chain liquidations ⚠️ Boss Eleven · Position Cut Risk Control Iron rule: Single loss ≤ 2% of principal, exit immediately if wrong, never hold until liquidation ✂️ Main anchors: BTC drops below 78,000, ETH below 2385, unconditional retreat 🚪 In a volatile market: Draw "error recognition lines" for support and resistance first, no rule changes during trading 🧭 One relies on tough holding for reversal, the other relies on discipline to survive. In the market, stubbornness is a story, survival is the skill 💡#US CPI unexpectedly rises to 3.7%, PPI test tonight #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, record high earnings Volume has increased, so I took the pulse of Dogecoin. First, some numbers: In the past 24 hours, $DOGE had a trading volume of about $1.444 billion, which is $621 million more than the previous day. The market is lively, but let's be clear: lively doesn't mean a clear direction. Traditional Chinese medicine pulse diagnosis talks about "pulse and symptoms combined"; looking at the pulse alone can lead to misdiagnosis. Volume is like the pulse: volume is the heartbeat, price is the complexion, and they must be observed together. A volume surge with a price drop means a fast pulse and poor complexion—trading volume expands but price weakens continuously, sellers dominate. A volume surge with consolidation means a fast pulse and stable complexion—trading volume expands, price holds steady around 0.0790–0.0800, and the sold coins are being absorbed; this is called absorption or turnover. Although both involve volume surges, their fundamentals are different. So don't just focus on the total trading volume; focus on a price range: 0.0790–0.0800. If it holds steady there, this volume surge means a blood refresh; if it doesn't hold, no matter how lively, it's just distribution. I've been fooled by volume surges before. Back in 2017, I mistook a volume surge for the start of the second half, but it turned out to be the sound of the closing bell. I still remember the cost of that lesson. Now, I'm happy to see volume returning. When there's volume, there are players at the table. As long as people don't leave the Dogecoin market, it won't go cold.#TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profit hits record high Revenue grew 50.9% year-on-year to NT$1.49 trillion, net profit surged 68.7% year-on-year to NT$763.1 billion, both setting single-quarter records. The 2nm advanced process now accounts for 8% of wafer revenue, with overall advanced processes making up 79%. AI chip demand remains the core driver. However, the stock price fell more than 2% after hours. The core issue lies in the gross margin guidance. Q3 gross margin guidance range is 65%-67%, lower than Q2's actual 67.7%. The market is concerned that capital expenditures are continuously increasing (with the Arizona plant in the US, Kumamoto plant in Japan, and Kaohsiung plant progressing simultaneously), and the massive depreciation will erode profit margins in the coming quarters. Simply put: earning more, but spending more.【Did Maji just crawl back from the gates of hell again? 25x leverage, 320 $ETH, still daring to play】 Big brother Maji was just liquidated once today, and then turned around with a 25x leveraged long position of 320 ETH left. Entry price was $2355.52, liquidation price $2334.84, currently floating profit is $6500. This profit is nothing in his track record, with only about 0.88% price space left before liquidation. In the past 4 months, he once turned $56,000 into $12.25 million, but after today's liquidation, the address was left with only $21,800 at one point. The account went from tens of millions in floating profit to just tens of thousands, leverage clearly compressing the distance between making money and going to zero. Coincidentally, today about $240 million worth of ETH long positions across the network were liquidated, with the price dropping near $2350, and Maji's position was almost walking on the liquidation line. Gambling like this is not advisable. Even someone like Maji with unlimited bullets can't hold on, so retail investors need to be more careful and protect their principal to have a chance.#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 TSMC's latest financial report shows profits soaring nearly 70%, so why did the stock price fall? $TSM Talking about TSMC's just-released Q3 financial report, revenue exceeded NT$1.49 trillion, net profit surged to NT$763.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of nearly 69%, with all indicators surpassing market expectations. The share of 2nm and advanced processes is extremely high, and demand for AI chips remains strong. Interestingly, the market dipped slightly after the positive earnings announcement. The market isn't worried about its profitability but is questioning its highly ambitious capital expenditures. This year, TSMC's capital expenditure has been raised directly to $64 billion, and in the coming years, it could even reach astronomical figures around $80 billion. With nearly 20 factories being built worldwide simultaneously, this unprecedented expansion speed means very high depreciation costs and management dilution from overseas plant construction. Moreover, the gross margin guidance has been slightly adjusted, causing the market to be cautious about overcapacity and diminishing marginal returns on AI investments. TSMC's short-term logic is monopoly premium—no one can replace it—but the mid-to-long-term logic will shift from the AI dividend period to the capacity digestion period. Once major tech giants move their AI investments into refined cost accounting, the huge capital expenditures will become a double-edged sword. Earnings are at their peak, but the alarm bells for a sprint are also ringing. DYOR Last night the CPI was released, and the market reacted very strongly. The US stock market dropped by 1.8 points, then the night session fell another 1 point, and during the day the Korean stock market crashed again, with Hynix, SanDisk, Micron all plunging. Even crypto took a big hit, except gold which might still be okay, since gold is known as a safe-haven asset and many countries are actively buying it. So in the short term, gold is relatively hard to fall. Last night's CPI release was very poor; the expected value was 3.6, but the actual release was 3.7, higher than expected. So the market thinks the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates in October. Currently, the market's predicted probability of a Fed rate hike has increased significantly. When we looked yesterday, the probability of a 25 basis point hike was only 19%, but today it has risen to 27%. It is expected to continue rising, but as long as before the FOMC meeting at the end of the month this data does not rise above 50%, and crude oil prices can fall back somewhat, the probability of a rate hike is not high. However, a rate hike is like a double-edged sword; as long as there is an expectation, it will keep pressuring the market. It might be better to just raise rates in October. If rates are raised and inflation can be controlled by November, that would be good. Also, after the midterm elections in November, Trump will definitely intervene in the Iran issue, since oil prices have been high for half a year. They can't stay this high forever! But if rates are raised in October and inflation is not controlled, then rate hikes will likely continue, and the market will be doomed, leading to a worse outcome. So currently, the US... The market is no longer betting on when the interest rate will be cut, but on how many more times it will be raised. Once the CPI came out, the bets changed immediately. The probability of no change in October was nearly 80%, but now the bets on rate hikes have piled up, with three more expected by the end of 2027. But this time, the reason for the rate hikes is oil. Rate hikes suppress demand, but they can't control oil prices. Saudi Arabia won't pump out two more barrels just because the Fed raised rates once. So this medicine can't cure this illness; it can only suppress the economy first. Prices that should rise will still rise, and life will still be tight. For us here, the meaning is very direct: money will be tightened, and risk assets won't have fresh liquidity. Most rebounds in this environment are just for people to sell, don't mistake it for a market rally. BTC is at 81,000, keep an eye on the 80,000 line; if it breaks, it will continue downward. I'm not buying more. With the market this bad, having to watch it every day, what's the point? #TradersBetOnFedHikingRatesThreeMoreTimes #SeptemberCPIIncoming HowWillCrudeOilAndUSTreasuriesMove $BTC 【Ondo locked assets have reached $4 billion, but $ONDO has yet to take off 】 Ondo Finance's total locked assets have surpassed $4 billion, with tokenized stocks and ETFs accounting for over $1.3 billion, and the cumulative number of holders exceeding 1 million. The story of Wall Street going on-chain is indeed growing bigger with Ondo. But ONDO hasn't taken off yet. TVL represents the platform's asset scale, not $4 billion directly buying ONDO. Treasury bond products provide yield, stocks and ETFs expand trading scenarios, and Ondo is still expanding into private markets; the business footprint is indeed growing. ONDO has actually been falling these past two days, around $0.47 on October 12, then continuously dropping to about $0.43 on October 15. Business is hitting new highs, but the token is falling; clearly, the funds are not trading according to the same script. I am optimistic about the long-term potential of the RWA sector, but right now, Ondo's growth cannot be directly equated with ONDO's value growth. ONDO is currently mainly a governance token; more platform assets do not mean token holders can directly share more income. What to watch going forward is whether new assets can continue to grow, whether trading activity can be realized, and whether the token has a clearer value capture mechanism. The story has grown big, but whether the token can get a piece of this cake remains to be seen.Bitcoin fell below 82,000, and inflation data crushed stocks, bonds, gold, and crypto across the board. Mastercard spent $1.8 billion to acquire BVNK, with the stablecoin payment sector continuing to be swallowed by traditional giants. Chainlink feeds prices on Stellar, and the RWA narrative is still unfolding. Richard Heart was arrested in Turkey; it's an old scheme, stay away. Just closed the security booth window; the wind outside is a bit strong. TRUTH current price is 0.0172380. The candlestick broke below the short-term moving average, MACD formed a death cross, volume at the top stalled, and the trend has weakened. Looking at the liquidation chart, there are many short stop-losses piled above 0.02, while the long support below is thin. Short-term weak correction, with a liquidation lure above that could trap bulls. If the rebound fails to surpass 0.018, it will continue to probe down, testing the 0.015 range. Trading strategy: short position mindset. Entry zone between 0.0175 and 0.018, take profit first target at 0.0155, second target at 0.015. Place stop loss above 0.0188; if broken, accept the loss. Avoid blindly chasing longs; buying at this level just provides liquidity to the market makers. Have some tea and keep watching the market. $TRUTH #Anthropic reports Q3 revenue rose to $16.8 billion and turned profitable @OKX Planet Lessons from the South Korean stock market are replaying in the crypto market South Korea's KOSPI fell from a high of 9114 in June to 6035, a drop of over 30%. It went from being the best-performing index globally in the first half of the year to the worst-performing index globally in the second half, all within just over three months. The mechanism behind this crash is worth every crypto trader's close attention. Foreign investors withdrew $131 billion from the South Korean stock market this year, and foreign ownership of Samsung Electronics dropped from 52.4% at the start of the year to 46.38%, the lowest since 2008. When foreign investors concentrate their withdrawal on two stocks that together account for more than half the index's weight, the index has no second support point. The crypto market has similar structural risks. BTC accounts for 58% of the entire crypto market capitalization, and ETF net assets account for 6.38% of BTC's total market cap. When institutional funds start withdrawing from ETFs, there is no second "buyer group" to catch the fall. Retail investors will only sell in panic, not buy. South Korean retail investors net sold 14.197 trillion KRW in Q3, wiping out all the buying in July and August. Retail investors fled when they were most needed to hold. The retail structure in the crypto market is even more fragile due to higher leverage, 24-hour trading, and no price limit protections. The only thing I learned from this crash in the South Korean stock market is: when liquidity recedes, don't believe any "this time is different" claims. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 1. Inflation: Sticky and Confirmed Last night, CPI broadly exceeded expectations: overall 3.7% (expected 3.6%), core 2.6% (expected 2.5%). Tonight's PPI is a leading indicator for CPI, checking if production costs have been passed on. Expectations: year-on-year 5.3% (previous 5.4%), core year-on-year 4.4% (previous 4.6%). Focus on core year-on-year; 4.4% is the market's bet on cooling, exceeding it would be a double confirmation. 2. US Dollar and Treasury Bonds: 10-year at 5.3% DXY surged to 102.86, a one-and-a-half-year high; 10-year US Treasury at 5.28%, 2-year at 4.87%. The implication is straightforward: global liquidity continues to tighten, and the pricing anchors for all risk assets are rising. BTC can't rally, and this is the root cause. 3. Oil and Geopolitics: Inflation's upside option Brent at $105, WTI at $94.6. In September, US-Iran military tensions escalated, Brent crude rose 14% in a single month breaking $100, and the Strait of Hormuz shipping volume remains 30% below pre-conflict levels. Oil prices are the direct driver behind this round of CPI surprises, and energy components in PPI will also be pushed higher. As long as geopolitical tensions persist, inflation has an additional upside option. 4. Global Markets: Broad declines, only gold benefited from safe-haven demand Nasdaq -1.88%, Nikkei -4.38%, South Korea's KOSPI down 7 consecutive days totaling -20%. Gold fell for 3 consecutive days after CPI to 4083, and the dollar weakened this morning #TSMCQ3RecordProfit Palantir Q3 (Nov 2) guided $2.16B revenue but street wants $2.25B-$2.30B and $0.41 EPS, so it must beat its own guide by 6%+ again. Valuation is extreme at $500B+ market cap, 161x P/E and 73x sales vs Nvidia's 28x. Growth is real (+93% Q2) but price needs perfection - that's why it fell after 2 of last 5 beats despite beating.$BTC 81,000 is not support; it’s the ETF cost line holding firm. On October 15, BTC dipped to a low of 80,985, marking the third time it tested this area. The average ETF holding cost is about 81,500, just right underfoot. Once it closes below this, ordinary ETF holders collectively turn to losses, accelerating redemption pressure.‌$BTC Bitcoin ETF net outflow is $261 million, with Fidelity FBTC alone running off $153 million, and BlackRock IBIT outflowing $111 million. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $452 million, with long positions liquidated at $394 million and shorts only $58 million. The bulls are getting hit, the bears are collecting money.‌‌ The rebound rejection at 82,500-83,000 is the entry point, with stop loss set above 83,500. The target is first 80,200, and if broken, then 78,000. ETF funds are not buying; the rebound is an opportunity to short. $BTC With CPI released, continuous ETF outflows, and long liquidations far exceeding shorts—the data has clearly set the direction. But especially at times like this, control your impulses; don’t chase shorts at support levels. Wait for the rebound to be rejected at resistance before entering. The biggest taboo in shorting is rushing; wait for the market to give you signals, which is more reliable than finding your own signals. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 Currently, this wave has dropped from 116 to 100, a retracement of 13.9%, which falls into the shallow category. To know how long it historically takes to recover from this level, just review the data from the past 1000 days. The method is simple: isolate each drop from a stage high, categorize by the percentage drop, then count how many days it took to return to the previous high. Returning to the previous high is calculated by closing price, not just touching it intraday. For the 10% to 20% drop category, it occurred 53 times in the past two years, with 48 times returning to the previous high. The median time was 8 days, the fastest was 1 day, and the slowest took 219 days. For the 20% to 35% drop category, it happened 24 times, with a median return time of 46 days. Moreover, 5 times have not returned yet, with the longest wait exceeding 300 days. A deeper category, 35% to 50% drops, occurred only 5 times, with a median return time of 86 days, the fastest 37 days, and the slowest 202 days. There is also a longer reference. $SOL's historical highest close was in January 2025 at $261.97, and it has not returned in the past 21 months, currently priced 60% lower. Therefore, the deeper the retracement, the longer the wait to recover, and some in the deeper two categories never recover. This current 13.9% drop falls into the most common category, with a reference median of 8 days, slower cases taking a few months, and 48 out of 53 times it has recovered.#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new highlight I actually don't care much about Netflix's revenue in this earnings report Subscription plus advertising achieving about 12% growth is basically within expectations What I'm watching is the profit margin guidance of 33.2%, compared to only 28.2% in the same period last year This company has shifted from competing for users to making more money from each user With expectations set so high, even a good earnings report might cause a drop If the advertising part is described vaguely, some will sell after hours Tech stock sentiment has been so fragile lately, don't be too confident on the night of the 20th #PalantirQ3Valuation Palantir Q3 (Nov 2) guided $2.16B revenue but street wants $2.25B-$2.30B and $0.41 EPS, so it must beat its own guide by 6%+ again. Valuation is extreme at $500B+ market cap, 161x P/E and 73x sales vs Nvidia's 28x. Growth is real (+93% Q2) but price needs perfection - that's why it fell after 2 of last 5 beats despite beating.一天流入6.56亿，一周却流出36.23亿 $BTC 24小时净流入6.56亿美元。 同一周，净流出36.23亿美元。 这个数怎么算的： 一天的钱是短线进的，一周的钱是中期撤的。 两个方向不冲突，只是时间尺度不同。 谁在这儿挂单： $ETH 一天进7亿，一周出35.59亿。 $SOL 一天进1.25亿，30天出20.41亿。 $ZEC 一天进1.46亿，承接最强。 单日流入说明有人试探。 周线还在流出，说明大钱没回来。 试探和总攻是两件事。 连续三天净流入，才算资金真回来了。 #渣打开放BTC与ETH交易，银行加密业务扩展 #$BTC $ETH $SNDK $SKHYNIX Hynix starts to consolidate while SanDisk plunges sharply!!! Institutions begin to support Hynix, so Chai didn't dare to short it, but this time Chai plans to short SanDisk hard. Recently, Chinese manufacturers have substantially overtaken; Yangtze Memory has completed overtaking in the NAND market, and Changxin Memory's breakthrough in the DRAM field has caused panic across the entire sector, coupled with many institutions lowering target prices, leading to a brief loss of market confidence in SanDisk. Additionally, continuous insider selling at SanDisk, along with CPI data exceeding market expectations, dollar appreciation, and tech stocks collectively under pressure. In the short term, Hynix has triggered a protective cushion mechanism; institutions start to support the stock, and retail investors and whales begin to look forward to extra shareholder returns after the Q3 earnings release. SNDK current price is suitable for entering short positions: 1348, first target 1322, stop loss 1400. The above is personal sharing only and does not constitute investment advice. #SanDiskMSCIRebalancingEffective, NANDValuationInFocus #USCPIExceedsExpectationsRisesTo3.7%, TonightPPIFacesTestAgain #HynixRespondsToUSExpansionRumors Core DAO Business Truth on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) The $CORE token itself is not listed on the London Stock Exchange. What is listed is a BTC staking ETP product (1VBS) issued by a third-party issuer Valour (under DeFi Technologies), with the underlying staking technology supported by Core. Many community promotions simplify this as "Core listed on the London Stock Exchange," which is a promotional statement and not a listing of the CORE coin for trading. Product: 1Valour Bitcoin Physical Staking (1VBS) 1. What it is: An ETP (Exchange Traded Product, similar to an ETF), publicly traded on the London Stock Exchange, regulated by the UK FCA, with physical Bitcoin as the underlying asset. Bitcoin enters the Core network for non-custodial staking to generate yields. 2. Business logic - Valour holds real BTC, stored in institutional cold storage; - BTC is delegated to Core network validators for staking, generating staking rewards (nominal annualized about 1.4%); - Staking rewards are included in the product's net asset value, so investors buying this London Stock Exchange security indirectly receive "BTC price appreciation + staking rewards"; - Open to professional investors in 2025-09; FCA license obtained in 2026-01, opening trading to UK retail investors. 3. Core's role here: underlying technology service provider - providing Satoshi-PIf the dips before the CPI were all about onboarding the same group of people, then this time BTC returning to the support level is not a coincidence but a prearranged script. Have you noticed that in the last four CPI releases, the price has chosen to continue upward? Watching the rhythm around these data points, it feels like the market is actually trading on a "bad news fully priced in" inertia. Each time before the data, it sweeps a round of lows to wash out the unsteady positions, then after the release, it moves forward lightly. This time BTC once again stands firm near support; emotionally, everyone is still shouting 75k, but the more unified the shout, the more I feel the price might not obediently go there to pick people up. The bullish logic is clear: if the historical rhythm repeats, CPI is a ready catalyst, and if support holds, the target can look toward previous highs or even new highs. ETH and SOL will also warm up with risk appetite, especially SOL, a high-beta asset that often runs faster once BTC confirms direction. But the risks must be clarified: if support is clearly broken, this judgment is invalid. Also, the market may have already priced in the "post-CPI rise" expectation in advance; if the data just meets expectations, it can easily turn into a case of good news fully priced in. Another easily overlooked point is that capital preference now leans more toward BTC dominance; altcoins need volume to follow the rally, otherwise it's just a false fire. My own rhythm is to first see if support can hold, then watch how the first 4-hour candle after the data release closes. If it closes up on volume, it means the buying is real; if it spikes then falls back on low volume, then be cautious of another fakeout Is $SOXL at a low point now? The price looks very low, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's the bottom. To judge whether it's the bottom, you can't just look at how much the price has dropped; you need to look at two core signals: ✅ U.S. Treasury yields stop rising and start to fall ✅ Heavy holdings like storage and Nvidia stabilize, with earnings reports and guidance not continuing to disappoint As long as U.S. Treasury yields remain high, even if this is a temporary low point, it's likely just a consolidation phase, making it difficult to start a big rally directly. Even if there is a rebound, treat it primarily as a corrective bounce, not as the start of a new bull market. This crash is due to macro interest rates killing valuations + negative news in the storage sector, compounded by 3x leverage amplifying losses. The price looks cheap, but bottom-fishing leveraged ETFs carries huge risks. The bottom is formed by a process, not just by falling prices. #USCPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, and tonight PPI faces another test $ZEC I don't dare to buy in; 1120 was directly smashed through, with a low down to 1070 Brothers, I've been watching ZEC's trend for a while, and my advice is simple: don't reach out. It held at 1120 for a long time, and many thought it was the bottom, but this wave smashed right through it, hitting a low of 1070. Look at those big bearish candles with huge volume—it shows it's not a slow decline but bulls giving up one after another, forced liquidations triggering a chain reaction. Whoever is slow to exit gets buried. This kind of stampede-style drop means the bottom isn't something you can just guess. I checked around, and $BTC and $ETH are also dropping simultaneously, indicating it's not just ZEC's problem but the whole market releasing risk. At times like this, trying to bottom-fish a single coin is going against the market. Technically, without going into jargon, 1120 was a psychological bottom before. Now that it's broken, it becomes resistance above. If it rebounds back near 1120, there's a high chance people will sell because too many are trapped there. My thinking is simple: I absolutely won't bottom-fish near 1112 now. I'll wait for a rebound near 1120; if it can't break through and starts turning down, that's where I'll short. Below, I'll first watch 1060, and if that breaks, then the 1000 round number. #US CPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, and tonight PPI faces another test Hayes was still calling for a market rescue in the morning, but in the afternoon he went OTC to sweep through some altcoins. Talking macro with his mouth, but buying old DeFi faces like AERO and PENDLE with his hands. I can only take celebrity buys as a reference; his cost and position size are in a different league from retail investors. He can afford to wait three months, but many people can't wait even three days. $PENDLE