Orbit Post Sitemap
This round of decline is no longer just a technical correction; it is a simultaneous pressure on the crypto market from macro tightening and regulatory uncertainty. On November 6, the US added 165,000 nonfarm jobs, far exceeding the expected 65,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1% and average hourly earnings rising 0.4% month-over-month. Strong employment data reignited rate hike expectations, with the market's bet on a December rate hike rising to about 80%, strengthening the dollarThe Vietnamese team is breaking down "authorization" into programmable granularities: instead of asking if you want to authorize, it first asks how much you can authorize and which contracts you can interact with. $BICO is priced at 0.01414 USDT, down 1.0% in the last 24 hours, but the key to this narrative is not the price, but the permission restructuring happening at the wallet layer—authorization changes from a one-time action to a quantifiable, auditable quota. The real tension lies in the fact that on-chain interactions are becoming increasingly automated, yet users are still required to confirm each operation individually. $BICO's smart sessions attempt to resolve this contradiction with "limits + whitelist," such as how much can be moved per transaction, the cumulative maximum, and which contracts are allowed to be called. This design has direct value for repetitive operations like dollar-cost averaging and periodic savings, eliminating the friction of repeated signatures. However, the success of the product depends not on whether the technology can achieve this, but on whether users can clearly understand what permissions they have actually granted at a glance. Even with "one-click authorization," single transaction limits and total limits must be clearly distinguished in the wallet interface; otherwise, automation only hides risks deeper. Looking further, this is actually the same issue for multi-asset ledgers in payment paths. $XRP is priced at 1.1609 USDT, basically flat in the last 24 hours, and multi-currency payments on the ledger can find multiple exchange paths and can also use $XRP as an intermediate hop. Whether a path can be used for actual payment depends not on how attractive the quote looks, but on the depth of the order books on both sides: if both sides are sufficiently deep, an additional intermediate exchange may still be better than a direct oneConclusion first: $MERL is up +12.5% today, with two completely different market moves. The early morning surge was driven by leverage, while the new high in the evening was not.
At 4 AM on the 1H chart, the price jumped from 0.03144 to 0.0328 (+11.7%), with a volume of 1.82 million USD, 36 times the usual volume of about 50,000; open interest simultaneously rose from 1.366 million to 1.729 million (+26.5%), indicating new longs entering. At 5 AM, the price immediately dropped back to 0.0305 (-6%), with a volume of 1.89 million, the highest volume of the day in that hour.
From 7 PM to 9 PM, there was another push, reaching 0.03299 at 9 PM, a 24-hour high. But open interest was only 1.566 million USD, 12.4% lower than the day's peak of 1.787 million — this move was short covering, not new money. Funding rates had already flipped negative: 08:00 -0.0179%, 12:00 -0.0102%, 16:00 -0.011%, with shorts paying longs for three consecutive periods.
In short: those who chased the price higher early morning did not benefit from the evening move.
A reminder: perpetual 24-hour nominal volume is 14.97 million USD, while OKX spot is only 1.84 million, an 8x difference. I checked announcements and news, no official explanation.
Will you add positions following the first wave, or wait until funding rates turn negative before entering? $ZEC
• NU7 Network Upgrade: Zcash's NU7 upgrade was activated around November 5th. The core change is the reduction of block confirmation time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, significantly improving transaction speed. The upgrade expectation previously drove a rebound, but the market experienced typical "buy the rumor, sell the fact" volatility before and after the event (including widespread liquidation of leveraged long positions on November 3rd).
• Macro and Narrative: Recently, due to macro uncertainties such as the US midterm elections, overall risk appetite in the crypto market has decreased. Additionally, the privacy coin narrative and the fund flows of the Grayscale ZEC spot ETF remain long-term potential catalysts, though short-term momentum has weakened.
• Short-term Trend: Currently, ZEC is in a short-term descending triangle/consolidation range with weak momentum. The market is testing support around 1,200. If it can stabilize here, it may continue to oscillate between 1,200 and 1,300 to digest; if it breaks below 1,190 effectively, there is a risk of further retesting 1,100.
• Reversal Signal: Attention should be paid to whether the price can effectively recover and hold the 1,280–1,320 resistance zone, which would be an initial signal of a short-term trend strengthening.
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ 🚨 $1.28 BILLION LEFT BITCOIN ETFs — IS INSTITUTIONAL CONFIDENCE FADING?
The pressure on crypto is growing, and this time it's not just Bitcoin feeling the heat.
📉 BTC: $74,457 — $1.28B in weekly ETF outflows. Key support: $73.3K.
📉 ETH: $2,131 — 6 consecutive weeks of ETF outflows. Key support: $2,050.
📉 SOL: $86.88 — 5 straight weeks of ETF outflows. Resistance: $88–$90.
Stay patient, manage risk, and let the market confirm its direction.
NFA. DYOR.
#Bitcoin #ETF
#DailyOrbit The 74,888 level mentioned yesterday has already been broken.
The current price is around 74,600, down 1.96% in 24 hours, with an intraday low of 73,500, marking a new low in nearly two months. The 7-day change is -3.71%, and the 30-day change is -10.14%. The price is moving further away from MA7 (76,600) and MA30 (80,000), with the downward pressure from the moving averages increasing.
74,888 was originally the lower boundary of the consolidation range. After breaking below it, the roles have reversed, and a rebound to this level now acts as resistance. Below 73,500, there is no obvious dense trading area, so only the round numbers 73,000 and 72,000 can be referenced. Catching a falling knife at these levels has a low cost-performance ratio.
To turn bullish again, the price must at least reclaim 74,888 and then hold above 76,600 (MA7).
On the derivatives side, the funding rate is still +0.0055%, indicating longs have not been completely flushed out; open interest at 2.64 billion USD has not significantly decreased, leverage remains, and there is a considerable probability of a secondary dip after the sharp drop.
My personal approach: stay out of positions, neither bottom-fishing nor chasing shorts. Wait for 73,500 to hold or for a volume-backed recovery above 74,888 before reconsidering. This is just a personal record and does not constitute any investment advice. $BTC #BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 Brothers, Monday's sell-off was brutal. $BTC dropped sharply from above 75,000 in early trading to around 73,510, then pulled back to 74,300; $ETH was even weaker, hitting a low of 2,060, now at 2,110.
$BTC $74,300 | $ETH $2,110
In the past four hours, the entire network liquidated $803 million, with longs accounting for over 90%. $ETH liquidations were $358 million, $BTC liquidations $233 million.
The trigger for this round of panic is still regulation. After the midterm elections, the Democrats control both chambers, and Warren is seen as a leading candidate for chair of the Senate Banking Committee. The market fears increased anti-money laundering and risk control rules; combined with weakening expectations in the AI sector, high-risk assets are collectively being devalued.
Liquidity hasn't stopped bleeding either. Last week, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $1.28 billion, the largest weekly outflow since the end of June, with BlackRock's IBIT alone withdrawing $1.21 billion.
But there's a detail: when $ETH dropped to around 2,060, a whale borrowed 22 million USDT from Aave to buy 10,000 ETH at an average price of 2,155.
Technically, $BTC's 73,500-74,000 range is this morning's low, and ETH's 2,060 is a wick low.
Are you brave enough to catch the dip caused by this regulatory panic? 👇
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ 🚨 $BTC : Bitcoin Breaks Below the 50-Week MA!
Bitcoin dropped to $73,477, closed below its 50-week moving average, and recorded five consecutive weekly declines.
This signals growing pressure on the medium-term trend.
⚠️ A breakdown doesn't automatically mean a bear market. The key question now is whether BTC can reclaim the 50-week MA.
No blind bottom calls, no panic predictions. Wait for confirmation and manage risk carefully.
#USCPIDecemberRateWatch Nvidia's stock price immediately dropped, and Bitcoin followed downwards. Once again, we retail investors are paying the price. 🙄️ $BTC is fluctuating around 75,900-76,000, with 76,000 as a short-term resistance level. The range of 74,800-75,000 is the last defense line for the bulls; if it breaks below, it could easily test the 20-day moving average near 73,000. The Fear and Greed Index has already fallen to 28. $ETH is consolidating around 2,230, with 2,200 as a key support level. If it doesn't hold, it might test 2,100. Funds are clearly seeking safety and reducing altcoin positions. This sudden drop was first triggered by a cooling of AI sentiment in tech stocks, followed by the Jensen Huang incident. On the surface, it's a personal life issue, but in reality, it shakes the trust in the leading AI chipmaker, dragging Bitcoin and Ethereum down with it. 🥲 #US October nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, December rate hike betsGood evening everyone, I am Xin Ya. Let's briefly review the recent trend. On November 6, Bitcoin mainly oscillated between 75400 and 76200 for five swings, with three downward wicks in the afternoon and evening. Over the weekend, it consolidated within this range. At 5 a.m. on November 9, there was a downward wick from 75777 to 73333, nearly 2500 points, which liquidated 210 million USD long positions, then retested the dump point. The subsequent tug-of-war was quite intense. We can mark several divergence points from the battle traces: 75600, 74700, and 73800, with the densest confrontation at 74700, which repeatedly became a contested zone. Looking at the MACD, this also appears as a brief equilibrium point. During the same period, Ethereum's oscillation concentrated between 2220 and 2245. At around 5 a.m. on November 9, it plunged from 2225 with a wick down to 2051, liquidating 310 million USD long positions in one move. The rebound paused at 2125, then continued upward with a wick to 2168 before turning down. This movement showed stronger volatility than Bitcoin but weaker rebound strength, with bearish pressure outweighing bullish, and the market's support intention was weaker than Bitcoin's. The divergence points synchronized with Bitcoin are marked at 2168, 2125, and 2085, with 2125 serving as a brief equilibrium point similar to Bitcoin's 74700. Comparing to the late August trend, Ethereum broke below the second rally point around 2102 on August 20, while Bitcoin's corresponding level was around 69500. Bitcoin's downward strength was far weaker than Ethereum's, and the downward extension expectation conflicted with the maximum theoretical space for upward rebound.In three days, $SOL only moved three cents
Last Thursday night, $SOL dropped from 96 to 88.30.
In the following three days, it stayed stuck between 89 and 90.5.
Here's how the numbers are calculated:
From 89.62 to 89.65, it rose 0.03 over thirty hours.
Counting from the low point of 88.30, it only recovered 1.5%.
Who’s involved:
That bearish candle that dropped the price first swept out those chasing longs.
Now this narrow range means neither buyers nor sellers are willing to move first.
Quiet doesn’t mean nothing is happening.
The narrower the range, the denser the orders stacked just outside both boundaries.
The first move will take all those orders out together.
#BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 $SOL #软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？ #软银重金押注OpenAI，财报前瞻
SoftBank is set to release its FY2026 Q2 earnings report on November 10, having invested a total of $64.6 billion in OpenAI. This heavy AI bet is the biggest focus in the market.
But the contradictions are clear now:
On one hand, there is a large-scale plan to invest $50 billion in Malaysia to build an AI data center, continuously expanding AI infrastructure in Asia;
On the other hand, negative news keeps coming: OpenAI’s valuation has been downgraded, financing is difficult, and SoftBank’s own financing costs are rising. It relies on high-interest debt for funding, its stock price has sharply retreated, and the market has already priced in the uncertainty.
In the crypto space:
AI is the main narrative. If the earnings report can provide optimistic asset valuations and investment return expectations, it will boost sentiment for AI-related tokens;
If the report shows expanding unrealized losses and asset shrinkage, funds will quickly withdraw from AI themes, and related AI tokens are likely to come under pressure.
SOFTBANK-related tokens have already fallen ahead of time, indicating market caution.
We are now in a phase of expectation games; do not heavily bet on the outcome in advance. Wait for the earnings report to land and then assess the expectation gap.$BTC 74K: This could be the most critical line of defense for the entire market!
Unexpectedly, this round of correction has been so intense. BTC has already retraced over $13,000 from its high, and the 73K area has been quickly tested. What the market needs most now is not blind bottom-fishing, but confirmation of whether the 74K level can truly hold.
Several signals deserve close attention:
1️⃣ Clear divergence in capital: Retail investors remain actively bullish, but large orders and liquidity distribution are changing, and market sentiment is not unified.
2️⃣ Technicals remain oversold: The weekly chart has shown multiple consecutive bearish candles, and the daily, 3-day, and weekly charts are all in weak zones, with short-term rebound demand accumulating.
3️⃣ Altcoins are diverging: Some strong altcoins are no longer hitting recent lows, but BTC is still repeatedly probing the bottom, indicating a shift in capital structure.
4️⃣ 74K is a key observation point: If this level holds, BTC has a chance to recover toward 76K and 80K; if it breaks down effectively, 68K could become the next important area to watch.
My view: This currently looks more like an extremely fragile bottoming phase rather than a confirmed reversal. Oversold does not equal bottom, and a rebound does not mean the bull market has restarted.
Spot trading requires patience, and contracts require even more leverage control. The most important thing going forward is to observe the support strength near 74K.
#USCPIDecemberRateWatch The dust has settled on the U.S. midterm elections: The Associated Press confirmed that the Democrats took control of both the House and Senate, and the market's first reaction was to sell off. Bitcoin briefly dropped to $73,708 and Ethereum to $2,223 over the weekend, both the lowest since August; this morning Bitcoin returned to around $75,200, Ethereum about $2,144, down about 4% in 24 hours. One more noteworthy point: Bitcoin fell below Strategy's average buy-in price of $75,451 — this company, holding 849,000 bitcoins, is experiencing an overall unrealized loss for the first time, about $500 million.
My judgment: This drop is not about fundamentals, but a repricing of policy expectations. The market fears that a Democrat-led Congress will tighten crypto regulations, so funds are pulling out first. But note one detail: Bitcoin rebounded about $1,500 from the low of $73,708, indicating there are buyers willing to step in around the $73,000 level, so there is buying even amid panic.
Verifiable observation points: Watch the $73,700 (weekend low) and the $75,000 round number — holding above $75,000 means short-term stabilization; if it falls below $73,700, look down to $73,000 (near the 200-day moving average). Tomorrow, Tuesday (November 10), the U.S. October CPI will be released, and the data will determine whether this wave is policy panic or a trend reversal. US October CPI Preview｜December Rate Hike Expectation Scenario Breakdown
#US October CPI Preview: Will the December Rate Hike Expectation Change?
After the nonfarm payroll data significantly exceeded expectations, CME interest rate futures priced in a 75% probability of a 25bp rate hike in December.
The market consensus expects: October CPI month-over-month +0.3%, core CPI month-over-month +0.3%.
Analyzing the market from three scenarios:
✅Scenario 1: Data meets expectations (core month-over-month 0.3%)
Rate hike expectation remains at 75%-80%, a slight negative for $BTC. Inflation stickiness persists, combined with strong employment, the Fed retains room for rate hikes.
✅Scenario 2: Data exceeds expectations (core month-over-month ≥0.4%)
Hawkish expectations max out, December rate hike probability surges above 90%, even pricing in continued hikes next year. US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthen, suppressing BTC.
✅Scenario 3: Data significantly weakens (core month-over-month ≤0.2%, rent and service items decline simultaneously)
The only reversal scenario, December rate hike probability quickly falls to 40%-50%, market stops pricing in hikes. US Treasury yields decline, dollar weakens, favorable for BTC and ETH.
Personal view: The market currently assumes a high probability of a December rate hike. Only a clear cooling of core CPI can break the existing expectation; meeting expectations just confirms the current bearish environment.Ethereum is still facing selling pressure, and buyers have yet to show a convincing recovery. The current market structure suggests that ETH remains vulnerable unless it reclaims its key resistance zones. Key Technical Levels: 🔴 Resistance 2: $2,450 🔴 Resistance 1: $2,380 🟡 Current Zone: $2,300 🟢 Support 1: $2,250 🟢 Support 2: $2,200 🟢 Major Support: $2,150 Market Scenarios: 📈 Bullish: A strong breakout above $2,380 could open the door toward $2,450 and improve short-term sentiment. 📉 Be[Full Day Closing Review] Monday Close: $BTC recovered from 73,500 to 74,600 in the morning session, $OKB was weak, and the US stock market remained mixed half an hour after opening.
Crypto: As of 22:05, $BTC≈74629 (24h approx. -1.7%, high/low 76100/73500), after dropping to 73500 in the morning, it stabilized around 74,500 in the evening. $ETH≈2122 (approx. -5.2%) remains weaker, $BNB≈685 (approx. -1.7%), $SOL≈86.7, $OKB≈97.6 (approx. -4.6%, today's low 95.6). Fear & Greed index at 29; total market cap approx. 2.50 trillion (approx. -4.6%).
US Stocks: Tokenized stocks mixed: XAMD≈467.5 (approx. +4.2%), XAMZN≈268 (approx. +3.0%) relatively strong, XNVDA≈176.1 (approx. -6.2%) still the weakest. Avoid chasing one-sided moves before tomorrow's data.
Click the link to view the market/place orders: https://www.okx.com/zh-hans/trade-spot/btc-usdt
Monday closed like this. Are you more focused on $BTC holding 74,500, or watching the US stock market divergence? #RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ Click $BTC to view the marketTonight is a key tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Is there still much room for BTC to go down?
According to the latest news, BlackRock-related addresses transferred 5,320 BTC (approximately $396 million) into Coinbase, marking the largest BTC movement tonight. The market is highly focused on this transfer into the exchange.
- Strategy disclosed tonight: from 11.2 to 11.8, a cumulative purchase of 1,037 BTC, updating total holdings to 850,364 BTC, signaling continued accumulation.
- Other BTC on-chain transfers are small and scattered, with no new large dormant addresses awakening.
ETH
1. Bitmine increased holdings by 9,587 ETH last week, with total holdings at 6.07 million ETH, indicating long-term institutional accumulation.
2. Staking redemptions continue, with two transactions totaling 4,200 ETH withdrawn from staking contracts to Binance, indicating a tendency to sell.
3. Tonight's derivatives: ETH longs continue to be liquidated, with about $127 million liquidated in the past 2 hours, making it the main force of liquidation tonight.
4. Whale address 0x4AB7 again withdrew 2,200 ETH into a cold wallet, continuing this week's accumulation rhythm.Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated by order book
$AKE large sell cost decreased, buy cost increased. Simulated buy/sell slippage for 100,000 scale changed from 1.06%/1.14% to 1.55%/1.02%. Depth changes are asymmetric, with different situations on buy and sell sides.
$EDGE large buy cost decreased, small buy cost almost unchanged. Simulated buy slippage for 100,000 scale dropped from 0.64% to 0.54%. 10,000 buy still about 0.14%. Depth is improving, and similarly, single order cost is cheaper.Today's Trading Plan｜November 9
In the early hours today, during the release of news related to Huang, the crypto market plunged sharply again. This time $BTC has truly broken below the previous low, and several attempts to reclaim it have failed. I remain pessimistic about the subsequent market trend. Uncertainty in the news remains, and we need to be cautious of continued selling pressure after the U.S. stock market opens tonight.
Currently, to stop the decline, the price first needs to reclaim the pink line shown in the chart, around 74,950, and hold on a pullback. As long as the rebound is suppressed below this level, I still lean towards the downtrend continuing.
Order indicators also make me cautious. During this recent rebound, the spot CVD has reached a local new high, but the price has not risen correspondingly. I tend to believe that active buying is being absorbed by passive selling near 75,000 above, and the buying power is not yet sufficient to push the price through.
If the decline continues tonight, the more obvious supports lower on the chart are relatively sparse, with almost no safe zones to hold. I will first observe the reaction near the low around 73,300 in the early hours, which is the VWAP of the upward segment. If this level also fails, the next key focus is the volume accumulation area near 71,000.
I still hope the crypto market can hold, but today we need to see how the New York session actually plays out. Whether the price can reclaim the pink line and whether spot buying can truly drive the price up will be key to my judgment of the strength of this rebound. BTC Daily Market Analysis
Today, BTC overall maintained a narrow range oscillation pattern. Spot trading sentiment slightly declined compared to yesterday. The 4-hour moving averages are intertwined. After briefly stabilizing above the $68,000 psychological level, the upward attempt to test resistance near $69,500 failed. On-chain data shows a slight increase in net outflows from exchanges, and the proportion of long-term holding addresses has reached a new stage high. Selling pressure mainly comes from repeated liquidations of short-term contract leverage funds. The market is currently awaiting guidance from US inflation data, with intensified long-short battles. Short-term operations require strict position control. Support is at $67,200, resistance at $70,000. Before an effective breakout, chasing gains or cutting losses is not advisable. Beware of sudden volatile spikes late at night.
(198 characters in total)Trader Gu Jingci: 11.9 Bitcoin/Ethereum Evening Operation Strategy with Market Analysis
Bitcoin/Ethereum have been declining steadily since early morning, followed by narrow-range consolidation after the drop. The overall trend is clearly weak. However, the early morning spikes to the 73000 and 2050 levels are important previous support points; no breakout action will be taken before these levels are breached. Our daytime strategy is to hold long positions, and during the evening market rally, we also recommend securing breakeven or taking small profits. Currently, the 4-hour candlestick chart shows multiple lower wicks followed by rebounds and rallies, indicating buying interest at the bottom, easing short-term selling pressure, and the market entering consolidation or preparing for a rebound.
On the daily chart, a large bearish candle with a long lower shadow confirms the exhaustion of short-term downward momentum. The market shows hesitation at low levels, possibly signaling a short-term rebound or consolidation. Technically, the 4-hour MACD indicator's DIF and DEA lines continue to diverge downward below the zero line, and the MACD histogram is negative and expanding, indicating that bearish strength remains very strong and the short-term downtrend is unchanged.
Evening operation suggestions: Buy Bitcoin around 73500-74000, target near 75500; buy Ethereum around 2080-2100, target near 2150, with stops at 73000 and 2050. Analysis and strategies are for reference only; please bear the risks yourself. The article's review and publication are not timely; please rely on real-time data!
#美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $ETH Just looked at the 15-minute chart, and the K-line amplitude is getting smaller. It dropped all the way to around 2050 this morning. That drop was very fast. After the drop, the market didn't continue to break lower. After this sharp decline, the pace between bulls and bears has slowed down.
Looking at the recent two hours of 15-minute movements, the amplitude has tightened. The swing highs are moving down while the swing lows are simultaneously moving up, forming a convergence. The trading volume in the latter half of the consolidation range has halved, and short-term volatility is narrowing. After this morning's sell-off, the bears' momentum couldn't continue pushing down.
On the daily chart, the current price is hovering around 2108. This daily level has been touched 8 times before, so the support below remains intact. A big 4-hour drop reached this level and encountered a major key level. The daily structure blocked this downward move, and the bears couldn't break through further.
Overall, I still lean bullish. The price is holding at the 2108 daily support line. The market is expected to stabilize here first, then move up for a rebound.
$BTC $SOL #BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 BTC Market Review: Emotional Sharp Sell-off Lands, Strong Support Orders at Low Levels Protect the Market
Over the weekend, market liquidity was relatively weak, with BTC spot ETFs seeing a cumulative outflow of 800 million over two days, putting pressure on the market.
In the early morning, influenced by Nvidia-related sentiment, BTC quickly plunged below 74,000.
This was a short-term emotional sell-off without substantial negative fundamentals, which instead accelerated the market bottoming process and increased the probability of a short-term rebound.
Currently, bearish sentiment in the market is extreme:
Hyperliquid's giant whale short positions hit a one-year high, directly sweeping away two major long pain points at 74,500 and 74,700 in the early morning, causing over 700 million in long liquidations across the network, resulting in a very clean shakeout.
Current liquidation structure:
Long pain point at 73,600
Short squeeze range between 76,500–76,700
Short positions are denser, leaving strong room for a short squeeze in the upcoming rebound.
Technically, although the bearish arrangement remains, a large support order of 52 million USD is firmly placed at the 73,000 level, providing solid bottom support without breaking down.
Short-term range: support at 73,000, resistance at 78,000
This round was just an emotional sell-off; the structure has not collapsed.
I entered spot at 75,000, continuing to bottom-fish with a micro strategy, aiming to capitalize on the oversold recovery rally. Crypto assets have already become deeply integrated into the global risk asset system.
When U.S. stocks, interest rate expectations, and regulatory sentiment all change simultaneously, BTC and ETH find it difficult to remain completely independent.
So going forward, you can't just focus on the K-line; you also need to watch:
Whether U.S. stocks stabilize;
Whether U.S. Treasury yields decline;
Whether ETF funds flow back;
Whether regulatory news continues to cause disruptions.Technical structure: Oversold is a fact, but the trend hasn't reversed
Daily level — repeated contest around the 200-day moving average, MACD dead flat below zero line
BTC currently around 74,346–74,600, down about 1.97% in 24 hours. Price has fallen below the 7-day SMA (76,422), 20-day SMA (78,661), and 50-day SMA (81,685), with a clear short- to mid-term downtrend.
But the real focus is on the 200-day moving average (73,204) and EMA200 (74,533). This morning EMA200 was briefly reclaimed, then fell below again in the afternoon, indicating this line is being fiercely contested rather than cleanly broken. Daily RSI is 34.42, weak but not at a "decisive oversold" level; MACD histogram precisely zeroed at 0.0000, MACD and signal line both stalled at -1,738.18 — momentum is very poor but not accelerating downward, rather "dead flat," meaning the market is waiting for an external variable to break the stalemate.
4-hour level — volume-driven slow decline, rebound is a sell point
4-hour RSI once dropped to 26.4, daily RSI 32.8, MACD histogram -819, oversold signals do exist, but the trend hasn't reversed. From noon, volume gradually increased (12:00 119 BTC → 15:00 460 BTC), with volume expanding on the way down, which doesn't look like a one-time panic sell-off but more like sustained distribution. Until price can reclaim 74,533 (EMA200), any rebound can only be qualified as a "rebound." $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC与ETH现货ETF单周净流出超16亿美元 True strong players do not chase the noise of hot topics; they only guard the opportunities they understand. Recently, the market for Bitcoin and Ethereum has once again entered a bearish trend. Influenced by various news factors, Bitcoin dropped again to a low of 73,333 early this morning, then entered a weak rebound during the morning and intraday, currently rebounding up to 75,724 where it faces resistance again. Ethereum's movement is similarly weak, with a strong one-sided drop formed early this morning and a low around 2050, followed by a bottom test and rebound. Intraday it is also a weak rebound, with the morning rebound hitting resistance at 2167. The bearish trend pattern remains unchanged, and the current rebounds should be regarded as corrections.
From the daily chart perspective, Bitcoin's price is declining within the mid-lower band range. The mid-band has repeatedly formed stagnation resistance, with 87,385 as the high point and 84,875 as the secondary high point, which is also the new starting point of the decline, forming a wave-like downtrend. The daily chart forms a descending channel. On the 4-hour chart, the bearish momentum is strong: 84,875 marks wave one down, 81,953 wave two, and 81,188 wave three. Each rebound high is successively lower, and lows are refreshed step by step, clearly forming a bearish trend pattern. The main direction remains bearish going forward.
On Monday night, Bitcoin can be shorted at 75,500-75,800, with a short-term target around 73,300. This week's swing short target can be seen at 71,000-69,500.
Ethereum can be shorted at 2,150-2,165, with a target around 2,050. This week's swing short target can be seen at 1,930.
$BTC $ETH Today, major cryptocurrencies overall maintained range-bound fluctuations with no severe divergence.
BTC continues to consolidate within the range, with trading volume steadily shrinking. Neither bulls nor bears have enough strength to push a one-sided move; most are waiting for macro news catalysts. There is no clear breakout signal in the short term.
ETH is relatively weak, lacking momentum to follow the rise. There is no large-scale capital inflow, and the ecosystem narrative is currently unable to drive the market. It mainly moves in tandem with BTC, with limited elasticity.
Other major coins (SOL, XRP, ADA) each show slight rotation, with occasional pulses but poor sustainability. These are mostly short-term capital arbitrage, making it difficult to form independent trends.
Overall: Major coins are currently in an expectation vacuum period with no strong drivers. There is heavy resistance above and support is temporarily holding below. In terms of operations, do not chase the rise or bet on one-sided moves; if trading short-term, wait for a volume breakout or a pullback to support to stabilize before considering, and keep positions light.
$BTC $ETH View on $BTC. Actually, quite a few friends are quite bearish on BTC breaking below 75,000. Let me explain a bit more. First, 75,000 has not been broken; you may see it as broken, but you shouldn't short it. Second, if I were to consider the price breaking below 75,000, it would be after the price rebounds at 75,000, then rises to the blue trend line, and then falls again. At that point, I might consider it a break below 75,000. Short-term traders can take a short-term long position. But you shouldn't short. If you can't hold on, then don't enter the market.Behind the recent decline, several macro factors are simultaneously at play:
US employment data is stronger than expected, and the market remains cautious about the future interest rate path;
US tech stocks are pulling back, with AI and semiconductor sectors under pressure;
Regulatory expectations are shifting after the midterm elections, leading to a decline in market risk appetite;
ETF outflows and a contraction in institutional buying.
Crypto assets have become deeply integrated into the global risk asset system. When US stocks, interest rate expectations, and regulatory sentiment change simultaneously, BTC and ETH find it difficult to remain completely independent.Market fluctuations have their own rhythm; short-term oscillations are just interludes, the long-term trend is the final answer. Not fighting the market trend, but following it is the way to last. BTC experienced a waterfall drop early this morning; today is a very typical downward spike to trigger long positions washout, followed by an oversold rebound recovery period.
From the four-hour chart, the bears are currently in control, with the price suppressed within a descending channel. The overall direction is still downward, but after a big drop, there will definitely be an oversold rebound demand. After the rebound, it is very likely to continue probing lower. The current price is close to the lower boundary of the channel; although it hasn't broken through, the rebound highs are getting lower and lower, and the bulls are very weak.
On the macro side, Bitcoin is currently under pressure both internally and externally. After the midterm elections, the market has been worried about tightening regulations, which directly hit market confidence. Institutions have been withdrawing funds continuously, and without large capital inflows, a chain reaction naturally occurs. The non-farm payroll data was strong and exceeded expectations, and the market's bet on a Fed rate hike has risen to 80%, which is undoubtedly bearish for Bitcoin. Subsequent operations should follow the bearish trend.
BTC short near the rebound around 75500, target down to the previous low at 73333.
ETH short near the rebound around 2160, target down to the previous low at 2050 $BTC $ETH $SOL #美国10月CPI前瞻：12月加息预期会否改变？ $RKLB Rocket Lab is currently at 53.81🔥 After a deep drop, it has slowly recovered, and the hourly chart shows a very resilient trend.
The key resistance level is at 54.05, with support at 45.75. Today's 24-hour range is 51.30-54.46, fluctuating back and forth.
MACD has already turned positive, and the bullish momentum is gradually warming up. Since pulling up from the low of 43.95, there is support at the bottom.
It is now right near the resistance threshold; whether it can hold above 54.05 is crucial.
If it holds, the upside space can open up; if not, it will continue to oscillate within the range. When trading this stock, be sure to closely watch for a breakout above the resistance level, and keep your position size moderate⚠️
#RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ #RocketLab财报前瞻：Neutron火箭进展如何？ CEO Peter Beck表示问题已通过工艺改进解决。后穹顶（aft dome）用新工艺制造后通过检测，质量达到历史最高。
• 11月6日官方更新：Stage 1 Forward Dome已从AFP（自动纤维铺放）机器下线并完成固化（cure）。下一步是材料分析与强度测试，确认无空隙后再进入一级罐体组装阶段。It is already "at the bottom." The definition of oversold is not "falling a lot," but the price falling below all reasonable anchors based on long-term growth models and cycle structures, while the fundamental supply structure (fixed supply, halving progress, institutional holding cost line) has not deteriorated at all. Ahr999 fell to 0.43, long-term holders completed surrender, the cycle time window precisely reached November 2026, and the largest corporate holder was dragged to the breakeven line—these four things happening simultaneously in one price range have never pointed to "continued bear market" in Bitcoin's history, only to the "bottom area." The only arguments bears can present now are "ETF outflows" and "macro uncertainty." But ETF outflows are the result of price declines, not the cause; macro bearishness was already priced in at 74,000. When all visible bad news has been digested by the price, and valuation indicators are shouting "historically this is the time to buy," what you should do is not follow the crowd but stand opposite to it. There may still be short-term fluctuations; 73,000 or even 70,000 is not impossible to touch. But as an extremely bullish analyst, my judgment is unequivocal: the current price is within the confidence interval of the cycle bottom, downward is noise, upward is the cycle. This is not investment advice, but if you ask me "Is this the bottom now?"—my answer is: you are much closer to the bottom than to the top. #After the US stock market crash, tech stocks rebounded, the Nasdaq weekly chart still down about 3.4% $OKB fell below 100, and Wang Duaniao is feeling bad!
Duaniao's position cost is in the 140-160 range. When OKB rebounded to 143 in the previous round, there was originally an opportunity to do T with the positions bought low in the 80-120 range, to unlock the previously high-chased chips and dilute the cost.
Now that it has fallen below 100 again, his mentality is somewhat collapsing. Currently, he has started taking advertisements, his position is leveraged, and funds cannot be freely withdrawn; fortunately, the leverage ratio is not high, and the risk of forced liquidation will only be triggered if the price falls below 50.
Objectively speaking, OKB itself has a solid foundation. Whether it is compliance licenses or brand influence, it belongs to the first tier in the crypto circle.
However, the tokenized US stock platform cooperated by OKX and ICE faces many obstacles on the way forward. The market was originally optimistic about the RWA main narrative, but now it has not only failed to bring new trading volume, but the expectations for the US stock sector have also started to weaken.
Coupled with the current overall market weakness and insufficient liquidity, OKB has again given an opportunity below 100.
If it were you, would you choose to lay out OKB here, or is bottom-fishing $BTC more stable? Another one down: Keplr.
Accounts created via Google and Apple one-click login are suspected to have been hacked. The root cause lies with the login service provider Web3Auth, which had an incident causing partial private key leakage.
Those who created wallets with their own mnemonic phrases are safe, and hardware wallet users are also safe. The dividing line is simple: whoever holds the private key themselves is safe.
One-click login essentially means the service provider generates and holds the key for you, and you only need to prove "I am me." It's convenient, but the cost is that the key is not in your pocket; if the platform has issues, your funds are at risk.
After advocating self-custody for so many years, it all comes down to a login button.
What else is secure? There is no absolute security, only who bears the risk. Convenience means shifting risk to others; holding your private key means bearing the risk yourself.
What you can do: switch one-click login accounts to mnemonic phrase wallets, and move large amounts into hardware wallets.BTC has fallen below $75,000 after a month of gradual decline, but unlike the major sell-offs in May and June where it dropped daily to $60,000, this time it chose a slight downward trend. Additionally, the Fed's rate hike in December has increased market panic.
In principle, as long as it does not break below $69,000, BTC still belongs to a large-scale bullish market with an end-of-year target of $100,000. If $69,000 is broken, everyone will suffer for at least a year.
2. $ETH dropped sharply from 2800 to above 2000 last time. If it deliberately breaks below 2000 and then rallies, that would be a bit unpleasant. I believe buying spot here is the same; do not sell below $3800.
3. $SOL has already broken the $100 support level, with an extreme support at $65 where you can go all in. The long-term target is to look at the previous high and then clear out at $160, which is very good.
4. The US stock AI trio $SNDK did not fall to $500 after breaking below $1000. In fact, there is a gap around $1030 that may or may not be filled. The extreme upper boundary is $1500, after which it’s just a dead cat bounce. Honestly, it’s better to play BTC.
5. Altcoin ZEC has seen a large profit pullback. I have not experienced rollercoaster rides with two unleveraged profits. The supports remain at 1208 and 888 as extreme supports.
6. We laid out some UNI at 6.4 last time, and it rose to 7.8 with a 20% profit that we did not take. I realize there really is no room for profit here. #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% $KITE — Kite AI
Kite AI is developing a Layer 1 for an agent-driven internet, with on-chain identity, programmable rules, and settlement for AI agents. The concept addresses how autonomous software can transact and coordinate safely. Real utility will depend on agent adoption, secure permissions, and reliable transaction execution.This morning, the crypto market dealt a blow to the bulls. ETH plunged sharply from around 2220 to 2051, BTC slid from 75700 to 73385, and many people's first move upon waking was to cut losses, with some even liquidated outright. Within 4 hours, long positions worth $740 million were liquidated, including about $320 million in ETH, which is $100 million more than BTC, clearly showing the crowded leverage. Then prices pulled back, showing a V-shaped recovery on the chart, but this looks more like a technical rebound after a sharp drop rather than a confirmed bottom. The battle between bulls and bears near the moving averages is just beginning: only if the price retests without breaking down and holds with volume can we talk about a true bottom; if the rebound is weak, the bulls may just be a flash in the pan. Don't rush to conclude a reversal in the short term; the market may still experience repeated shakeouts this morning. The real variable is the CPI on the 10th; controlling position size before the data is more important than trying to guess the bottom. The above is just market observation. $BTC $ETH The easiest place to deceive yourself in a review is to take "what seemed obvious at the time" as a reason.
At midnight today, BTC dropped from 75,690 to 73,477 in fifteen minutes. Looking back afterward, the breakdown, volume surge, and failure to rebound past the previous high were all crystal clear.
But at that moment, only three things could be confirmed on the screen: the range was broken, the trading volume was twice the average of the previous twenty bars, and the close did not recover. All other explanations were added later.
So I assigned an invalidation condition to each signal. When replaying, first count the invalidations, then look at the profit and loss. This step is tedious but filters out the most costly mistake: rules that seem wrong but look right in hindsight. The more of these trades there are, the more ambiguous the rules are, not the more accurate the judgment.
Clearly defining what counts as a mistake is more useful than clearly defining what counts as correct.
#TradingVoice $VELODROME — Velodrome Finance
Velodrome is an automated market maker built to help protocols on Optimism incentivize liquidity around their own markets. Its model links governance and emissions with ecosystem-level trading needs. The key question is whether liquidity incentives create durable depth and useful trading conditions after rewards change.In the past 41 days, I have posted every opening price, stop-loss price, and closing result of BTC perpetual contracts one by one, including the two stop-losses triggered last week: -0.9% and -0.8%, without deleting any entry.
What you get by following me is this: a position record that can be checked item by item, not trade calls.
Regarding the rate hike expectations brought by JobsReportRaisesHikeOdds, the current market pricing might be too light. My view is that the core of this round of pricing is not crypto itself, but the real US dollar interest rate. Employment data pushes up the probability of rate hikes, real interest rates rise accordingly, and usually, the high-beta altcoins are sold off first, with BTC often falling last. So I adjusted my position structure to be BTC-dominant, keeping altcoins only as observation positions.
Positions have also been reduced from 50% to 30%, leverage compressed to under 2x; stop-losses are not fixed at a certain percentage but placed below the previous low structural level. Macro-driven declines may gap down directly, and fixed percentage stop-losses in thin order books can fail—I have suffered losses from this.
Before the CPI data is released, will you cut your position to below 30% and wait for the data, or keep full positions betting that CPI release will be bullish?
Follow me for daily public real trading positions and stop-loss logic, and I write honestly even when losing.
#OKXProphet The chain of leverage liquidation usually goes like this:
Price drops → Long position margin insufficient → Forced liquidation sell-off → Price drops further → Triggers more liquidations.
In this kind of market, rebounds are often quick but may not be very sustainable.
Because liquidation only removes leverage, it does not mean spot buying has returned.
A true strengthening requires seeing spot funds re-enter the market, not just relying on contract market rebounds.$CT — Concrete
Concrete is designed as an institutional-grade on-chain asset management platform, aiming to make DeFi strategies more accessible and transparent. Its relevance rests on whether professional capital can use programmable vaults with clear risk controls. Strategy reporting, custody design, and real deposits deserve close attention.$BTC Bitcoin has fallen below the 50-week moving average, closing lower for five consecutive weeks. This time, it really can't be seen as just a normal pullback.
Bitcoin's recent trend has shown a signal worth being cautious about.
The price dropped to a low of $73,477 and closed below the 50-week moving average for the first time since September.
More importantly, Bitcoin has closed lower for the fifth consecutive week.
The 50-week moving average is not a magical lifeline, but it has long been an important reference indicator for observing medium- to long-term market trends.
Once the price consistently trades below this moving average, it means the previously supporting medium- to long-term trend is under pressure.
Of course, breaking below the moving average does not mean an immediate bear market; historically, there have been false breakdowns and quick recoveries.
But what needs to be observed now is not guessing where the bottom is, but whether Bitcoin can reclaim this key moving average. $BTC
I don’t like blindly calling a bottom at this kind of position, nor do I like declaring the bull market over just because of a few down weeks. $BTC
Truly mature investing is not about proving you were right every time the market falls, but about retaining your initiative when the trend is unclear.
Whether Bitcoin can recover lost ground next is the key. #ModernaQ3扭亏为盈，上调全年营收增长预期 #Oklo推进核电项目建设，商业化进展受关注 #伯克希尔Q3回购96亿美元，现金储备创新高 He was so angry that he threw his coffee cup: BTC and ETH spot ETFs crazily saw over $1.6 billion outflow in a single week! Setting a new phase record. Pharaoh sneered coldly: What happened to Wall Street institutions' "long-term allocation"? Their exit speed is even faster than retail investors pulling the plug, a typical "jerk" move! The causal chain behind this is extremely deadly: Non-farm payroll data blew past expectations ➡️ December rate hike expectations remain firmly capped ➡️ Dollar and US Treasury yields soar wildly ➡️ Traditional institutions see no chance of rate cuts and frantically withdraw from high-volatility assets ➡️ BTC and ETH both suffer capital hemorrhage ➡️ Bitcoin plunged sharply overnight to 73,380, now struggling around 74,800! Brothers, $1.6 billion is no small amount. This shows that under the current macro pressure, institutions have no intention to support the market. Every intraday rebound is just bait for them to sell. Without fresh liquidity in spot, the market can only continue to slowly decline and bottom out in this quagmire. The big trend is still bearish, currently in the "ICU" after a crash$DOS — DappOS
DappOS is positioning its platform as an operating system for Web3, bringing research, planning, and on-chain execution into one workflow. This approach addresses user fragmentation across decentralized applications. Its long-term value depends on secure execution, reliable integrations, and whether automation creates repeat usage beyond novelty.前下移至74200。这也是自9月20号向上突破之后，行情第一次跌回这条关键线上。 这条以周期高点、200天后低点画出的江恩角度线分量很重，2/1位置可以视作牛熊分水岭。看历史走势，当初站上这条线，代表熊市告一段落；涨上去之后再跌回来的案例本就稀少。 一旦确认跌破2/1，就是明确走弱信号。后续凡是低于78920的上涨，全部定义为反弹，反弹结束还有继续下探的压力。反过来，只有重新站稳这条线、并且不再跌回，本轮回调才有宣告结束的条件。 下方重点观测支撑区间：72000-72700、68900-69400。如果快速砸到这些区间之后走出V型反转，会是不错的短线机会；如果是绵绵阴跌，破位之后毫无承接，那支撑效力就要打折扣。7.57 万左右还在低位磨。 11 月 5 日从 80408 一路砸到 75200 那波，我 7.60 万上方接的货直接被甩下车了。 想等个像样的反弹，结果 24h 就在 75569 到 76251 之间磨，越看越怂。 15m 贴着 75755（MA20）下方磨，1H 也收在 75903（MA20）下面。 4H 压在 77042（MA20）下面，日线 79316（MA20）更是连边都没摸到。 24h 额 1.55 亿，磨得人一点脾气都没有。 1H 站稳 75903（MA20）再看一根，失守 75569 先空着，歇着，不追。 个人看法，不是喊单。Over $1 Billion Liquidated: This Drop Is Not an Ordinary Correction
Recently, the crypto market has seen massive leveraged liquidations, with over $1 billion liquidated in 24 hours, mostly long positions.
This indicates that the decline is not just a "price correction" but a concentrated clearing of leveraged longs.