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Important macro data released today at 8:30 ET has been published with actual values verified, no longer using pre-release expectations. PPI: Significantly higher than expected. September PPI month-over-month +1.3% (expected +0.5%), year-over-year +6.3% (expected +5.3%); Core PPI month-over-month +0.7% (expected +0.3%). Retail sales: Overall stronger than expected, but with internal divergence. September retail sales month-over-month +0.8% (expected +0.3%), excluding autos growth +0.9% (expected +0.5%). However, the retail sales control group only grew +0.1%, below the expected +0.3%. Initial jobless claims: The labor market remains resilient. Initial claims 199,000 (expected 200,000), continuing claims 1.71 million (in line with expectations). Market environment after data release: Nasdaq 100 futures down about -1.3%, S&P 500 futures down about -0.3%, 10Y US Treasury yield about 5.07%–5.09%, BTC around $80,700. Notably, US Treasury yields are actually falling today while tech stocks continue to decline. This indicates the market is not only worried about inflation but is also reassessing AI investment returns, financing risks, and corporate valuations. Conclusion: Maintain a bearish bias but do not chase the dip. Today's short positions require confirmation from a rebound and should not be opened solely based on macroeconomic negatives. ———————————— 1. Today This cold splash of inflation has dampened expectations for rate cuts.
The biggest fear in trading is when your position is already betting on easing, but the data moves in the opposite direction.
The US September PPI rose 1.3% month-over-month, with core PPI up 0.7% month-over-month. Producer prices are clearly heating up, and even after excluding food and energy, the readings are still high. Simply attributing this rise to oil price fluctuations doesn't hold up.
But there is a distinction here: a rise in PPI does not mean the next CPI will increase by the same amount. Companies can absorb some costs themselves or choose to raise prices; the subsequent transmission depends on demand. What really troubles the market is that the Fed will find it harder to confidently signal easing, and the rate cut pace that funds originally expected may need to be repriced.
In the crypto space, my judgment is that short-term caution is needed. For BTC and ETH to continue strengthening, besides their own buying pressure, external liquidity support is also necessary. Repeated inflation will add resistance to this upward logic.
Next, I will watch the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and whether BTC can hold the volatility range after the data release. If funds still step in to buy on bad news, that is more informative than simply guessing price moves based on data. Conversely, if rebounds lack volume and key levels are broken, don’t rush to treat every dip as a cheap entry.
This set of data leans bearish, but bearish doesn’t mean blindly shorting. First see how funds respond, then decide how to adjust positions. #USCPIandPPIsurpassexpectations, will there be another rate hike this year? @OKX星球 $BTC is about to break 80,000 in this wave. The PPI data has been released, and it has once again blown past expectations, and by a large margin. Previous value was 5.4%, forecast 5.3%, released at 6.3%. This is still the annual rate; the monthly rate has more than tripled, with previous value 0.4%, expected 0.5%, released at 1.3%.
What's worse is that retail data unexpectedly came out better, indicating that the purchasing power and economic development of the American people still have resilience. Alright, the Federal Reserve can confidently raise interest rates, and we can all just relax and sleep.
Most of the key data before the meeting has also been released. The rise in oil prices leading to inflation increase is beyond doubt. However, the decline in labor force and retail data shows that although the US economy still has resilience, it is not very strong. In the short term, there are no signs of recession, but the Federal Reserve should be considering this.
Yesterday, CME's highest rate hike probability reached about 55%. After today's PPI release, it is estimated to reach 60%. And since the Hormuz Strait issue can't be resolved, October's inflation will definitely be higher than September's. So will there be another rate hike in December?
Now tech stocks and semiconductors are struggling a bit, so it's really "see you in 2028" #USCPIandPPIExceedExpectations, Can there be another rate hike within the year? 关于$STRK 目前的状态并不像是巨鲸出货，它前十地址合计持有约 70.9 亿枚 STRK，是 4 月以来的高位。并且有三个被追踪的巨鲸地址买入，合计约 72.2 万美元，同一天，追踪到的交易所净存入约 44.6 万美元。并且净流入特别的高。目前就是已知今日还要进行代币解锁，但它没跌反涨。我个人更看像是巨鲸准备最后一次的拉盘出货。大家谨慎做这个币。巨鲸并未有离场准备最后的大收割！#Korean stocks fell nearly 8% intraday, global tech stocks collectively under pressure
Just saw Korean stocks drop nearly 8%, led by Samsung and Hynix selling off, triggering the exchange's circuit breaker again.
This wave is not just Korea's own issue. Overnight, the US tech sector was already adjusting, with the Nasdaq down 1.88%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declining for the sixth consecutive trading day. The Nikkei also fell over 4% today. The sell-off pressure on the global AI industry chain is simultaneously intensifying.
On the surface, it looks like CPI exceeding expectations has raised rate hike concerns, but the deeper issue lies in AI itself. ASML's earnings show equipment demand remains strong, and TSMC's profits also exceeded expectations, yet investors are not convinced. Everyone is starting to do the math: AI infrastructure financing costs are rising, competition in the storage industry is intensifying, and the question is whether these investments can yield sufficient returns.
Korea is a bellwether for memory chips; when it falls, global tech stocks come under pressure. For BTC, the short-term pressure is direct. Tech stock sell-offs drag down risk appetite, causing funds to flow into safe-haven assets, making it difficult for the crypto market to remain unaffected. BTC is currently fluctuating around 82,000, with short-term support between 81,500 and 82,000; breaking below that could see it test 80,000.
But from another perspective, the essence of this adjustment is the market re-evaluating the input-output ratio of AI. If funds withdraw from overvalued hardware, some may flow into BTC and other non-sovereign hard assets. $KR200 $SKHYNIX $SAMSUNG #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 $STRK STRK's recent sharp correction is a value reversion following a narrative-driven surge. At the beginning of the month, stimulated by the "transition to L1 + quantum resistance" news, STRK soared from $0.05 to $0.126, but this positive news was only at the "consideration" stage with no timeline, and on-chain activity and fee revenue lagged far behind the price increase. Then on October 15, about 127 million tokens were unlocked (accounting for 3.37% of the circulating supply), combined with macro pressures such as CPI data release and BTC ETF fund outflows, triggering a long squeeze and a nearly 28% single-day plunge. Conclusion: short-term bearish bias; if the key support at $0.083 is broken, the next target is $0.06. #Tesla delivery exceeds expectations, making profit recovery the focus #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, earnings hit a record high
After the release of CPI and PPI data, US Treasury yields have been falling continuously, and the market has started to trade on recession fears, with funds flowing into the bond market. Ultimately, Powell still has to support the bond market, which will be tough for tech stock holders.暴跌！！PPI上涨远超预期！！$BTC $ETH
今晚美国 9 月 PPI 属实把“通胀抬头”的剧本拉满了
PPI 环比 1.3%（预期 0.5%，前值 0.4%）
核心 PPI 环比 0.7%（预期 0.3%，前值 0.2%）
从 6 月的 -0.3% 到 7 月 0%、8 月 0.4%，再到今晚的 1.3%，生产端通胀已经连续两个月显著抬升，创下本轮序列新高。核心 PPI 的同步飙升更说明不是单纯的油价异动，而是整个上游生产成本在全面扩散。
作为 CPI 的先行指标，生产端价格重新加速对降息预期是显而易见的压制。上游涨价一旦顺利传导给终端消费者，美联储的政策空间将极其被动。短期内宏观流动性预期面临再定价，高估值与高杠杆资产大概率要先承压消化这波情绪，管住手，不盲目接飞刀。
#美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Earnings Hit Record High
TSMC's Q3 net profit surged 68.7% to NT$763.1 billion, with revenue up 50.9% year-over-year. Advanced process nodes accounted for 79% of production, with 2nm starting to contribute to revenue, and AI demand continuing to provide support. However, despite the better-than-expected earnings report, TSM's stock price fell more than 4%, a typical case of "good news already priced in."
Market concerns focus on two points: first, HPC revenue showed zero growth quarter-over-quarter, and AI's marginal growth is slowing; second, the high cost of building factories in the U.S., where the cost per wafer is four times that of Taiwanese plants, diluting gross margin by about 2% to 4%, and this pressure is expected to be long-term.
In the short term, AI infrastructure expansion and strong 2nm orders still provide certainty; in the long term, risks of overcapacity and geopolitical cost pressures will gradually erode profitability. A good earnings report does not equal a good stock price; the real test lies in expectation gaps and cost headwinds.$ZEC 今晚1000守不守得住？
ZEC今天跌得跟被人追债似的，24小时砸了13%-15%，市值前25里跌得最狠，没有之一。现价1090附近晃，1000这个整数关口就在眼皮底下，今晚能不能扛住，成了全村焦点。
先说结论：大概率能守，但压力不小。上方1170已经从支撑变压力，多头想翻身，先得把这块硬骨头啃下来。
为啥跌这么狠？宏观砸的。CPI同比3.7%，超预期，通胀担忧一起来，风险资产集体挨揍。BTC跌破81000，全市场24小时清算9.35亿，多头被洗得跟下雨收衣服似的。ZEC自己合约也清算近1900万，杠杆多头出清，跌幅自然被放大。
能不能守住1000，关键看BTC：
BTC在80000附近企稳，ZEC有望在1040-1083获得承接，超卖反弹第一目标看1140-1180。
BTC继续往下，或者美股开盘情绪再恶化，ZEC跌破1040，那1000就直接暴露，900都在分析师嘴里排着队了。
操作 别急着抄底，先看1040能不能撑住。跌破就松手。企稳了轻仓试多，止损放1020下面，目标先看1140。想空的，等反弹到1170冲不上去再考虑，别追空。#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Explaining a fan's question: Is the bull market still here? Spot market is stuck in losses 😭 Will the market rise tonight???
To put it briefly, the bull market is still on! But definitely not this year!
Moreover, a new round of rotation and accumulation will start when market sentiment is relatively low, and it won't be a full-scale surge. That's impossible because there isn't enough capital to drive a wealth effect like the bull markets of the past two years; it will only get worse.
Secondly, according to the current trend, $BTC's strongest support is around 80,000. This is also where many big players get liquidated. However, the daily trend continues to decline, institutions are selling, macro factors are bearish, and the upcoming midterm elections add uncertainty. From the liquidation map, if 80,000 is touched, the cumulative long position liquidations will approach $250 million.
Right now, the long positions are too heavy. In a bull market, there are many shakeouts; without capital inflow, the price definitely won't rise. There's a high probability the support will break down further to around 79,000-78,000.
Third: Is there hope for the spot market?
It depends on which altcoin sector you are in. Is the fundamental strong? Is there a narrative? If it's a leading coin and your losses aren't too deep, just be patient, keep a good mindset, and watch the big trend. But although spot won't go to zero, it can get infinitely close to zero, so don't be fooled by those so-called KOL teachers!
Operation suggestions for the evening of October 15 [purely personal sharing, not investment advice]:
Mainstream: ETH (short), US stocks: #SNDK, Skhynix (short)$BTC $ETH $SOL
[ID Perspective] Data collectively turns sour! US economic resilience exceeds expectations, bulls should not blindly fantasize about easing dreams!
The cruelest part of the market is that it always douses your hopes with a bucket of cold water. Many are still betting on the Fed rate cut expectations, but this round of heavy US data releases directly shatters the easing illusions.
Most of this data set signals bearish for gold and silver. Initial jobless claims are lower than expected, the job market remains strong; September retail sales month-over-month significantly beat expectations, consumer spending remains hot. PPI inflation data also exceeded expectations, indicating upstream inflation stickiness persists. The New York Fed manufacturing index missed expectations, with only the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index showing a slight positive, but a single data point cannot withstand the impact of a basket of strong data.
The entire data set points to: the US economy has not weakened, inflation is falling slower than expected, the timing of Fed rate cuts will continue to be pushed back, and the dollar and US Treasury yields are likely to find support, suppressing gold, silver, and crypto assets.
Key observations
✅ Key focus: Whether the dollar and US Treasury yields can continue to strengthen on this data wave; if they keep rising, pressure on risk assets will increase.
✅ Bullish breakout condition: Only if a continuous series of weakening employment and inflation data emerges later can rate cut expectations be revived.
✅ Trading reminder: Do not use a single positive data point to counter a whole set of strong fundamentals, do not heavily bet against the trend for a rebound.$XRP Ripple is doing RWA perpetuals for institutions, and finally chose the platform on Hyperliquid
Even the favorite son of the chain has to do business where the liquidity is
The XRP community might see this as a positive, but I can't really see where the benefit is 表面在反弹，底下其实还在拔河。 81500守得住，是勇气还是运气？ 昨晚盯BTC那根下影线，心情挺微妙的。价格一度砸到81523，随后在81400附近被硬生生托起，现在回到81862，还站上了超级趋势线81616。看上去像买家赢了，但我不太敢跟着欢呼。 因为热闹的是K线，冷的是宏观。KDJ已经冲到86.6/81.9的过热区，上方均线又密又沉，短线随时可能晃一晃。更关键的是，Goolsbee半夜放鹰：美国服务业通胀还在5%上方，核心通胀黏得很，他甚至不排除再加息。这不是背景音，这是悬在多头顶上的那把剑。 所以我现在更愿意把这段行情理解成一场情绪测试，而不是趋势反转。买盘确实在81400展示了肌肉，但宏观利空还没被完全消化，FOMO的人看到长下影就想冲，犹豫的人盯着宏观不敢动，叙事疲劳也还在。市场真正交易的，是"能不能先撑住"，而不是"能不能马上飞"。 偏多的路径：只要81500不破，短线情绪会慢慢修复，BTC稳住后，ETH和SOL这类高beta才可能重新获得关注，风险偏好才会回来。 偏空的风险：一旦宏观继续施压，或者82000冲不过去，这波反弹就容易变成诱多，山寨跟跌会比谁都快。 这种位Volume-price relationship #Korean stocks fell nearly 8% intraday, global tech stocks collectively under pressure #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高, Core trump card: Gross margin guidance declines, cracks appear in expectations
① Behind the impressive data lies hidden concern: Q3 gross margin guidance at 65%-67%, significantly lower than Q2's 67.7%.
② The market begins to worry that increased capital expenditure will squeeze profit margins, with uncertainty sharply rising over AI capacity expansion.
3. Market transmission: Good news fully priced in, funds vote with their feet
① After the earnings report release, TSM and related tokens like xTSM fell more than 2.7% instead of rising, as funds chose to cash out at highs.
② This indicates that the market's frenzy over AI computing power is being harshly scrutinized by rational financial metrics, revealing expectation gaps.
Core summary:
The long-term AI logic remains unchanged, but short-term sentiment hits a freezing point! When earnings realization meets declining profit margins, profit-taking at highs becomes the main theme. Don't be dazzled by superficial prosperity; keep a close eye on subsequent capital expenditures 📉 $SNDK $SK HYNIX｜Latest strategy for the storage sector: rebound under pressure, proceed with caution!
Brothers, today let's continue discussing the storage chip sector. At this stage, my short-term view on this sector remains unchanged: do not blindly chase the dip, focus on observing short signals after the rebound.
🔎 1. Why is the storage sector continuously under pressure?
Recently, the storage sector has been affected by multiple news factors, and market sentiment has clearly weakened. Some long positions entered at previous highs are also facing significant holding pressure. With concentrated capital adjustments, the volatility of related stocks may further increase.
Currently, the main factors worth noting are as follows:
- Changes in foreign capital flow: The flow of foreign capital in the Korean stock market deserves close tracking, especially for semiconductor heavyweight stocks like SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. However, the claim that foreign capital outflows have reached $141.5 billion still requires verification of statistical criteria, time frame, and actual data.
- Intensified industry competition: China's storage chip industry continues to develop, and market assessments of industry competition, future pricing power, and corporate profit expectations are also changing.
- Impact of buyback news: Progress on Samsung's related buyback plans may affect short-term market sentiment, but specific impacts still need confirmation through official announcements.
- Changes in policy expectations: If South Korea does not introduce new support measures, it remains uncertain whether short-term market sentiment can improve.
📊 2. Tonight at the US stock market open, focus on $SNDK!
From a short-term trading perspective,U.S. September PPI rose 1.3% month-over-month, expected 0.5%, previous 0.4%; core PPI rose 0.7% month-over-month, expected 0.3%, previous 0.2%. Both readings significantly exceeded market expectations and accelerated noticeably compared to August. Historically, the PPI month-over-month has been positive and rising for two consecutive months: 1.1% in May, turning negative to -0.3% in June, back to 0% in July, rising to 0.4% in August, and September's 1.3% is the highest in this series. The core PPI's 0.7% is also the highest growth rate in recent months, indicating that price pressures excluding food and energy are expanding, not just a single component pushing up the overall reading. The simultaneous acceleration of producer prices means that the cost increases faced by companies are spreading. Whether this can be passed on to consumer prices will be a key observation point for the market to judge the inflation path. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 US September PPI rose 1.3% , the PPI month-on-month has been positive and rising for two consecutive months: 1.1% in May, turning negative to -0.3% in June, back to 0% in July, rising to 0.4% in August, and September's 1.3% is the highest in this sequence. The core PPI's 0.7% is also the highest growth rate in recent months, indicating that price pressures excluding food and energy are also expanding, rather than a single component pushing up the overall reading. The simultaneous acceleration of老牌迷因这波真扛不住了，50倍空单浮盈可观，但高倍永远是刀口舔血。背景上，近期某机构$DOGE ETF直接清盘，现货资金连续多日零流入还伴随千万级流出，宏观又偏紧，大饼一横盘山寨先跪。
做单逻辑打的是"机构退潮+高β补跌"：0.086附近开空，跌破0.08心理关口加速，标记已到0.0795。巨鲸买卖分歧大，反弹缩量不是底。技术面日线均线全压死，4小时反抽碰中轨就掉，量能跌放涨缩，空头结构完整。
操作上平半锁利推损保本，剩仓看前低承接，站回开仓价全撤。迷因没新叙事就是纯情绪博弈，宏观紧时跌最凶，落袋的才是钱，不贪最后一块铜板。$ETH $BTC #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 US PPI September 2026: +1.3%
Forecast: +0.6% Previous month: +0.4%
Annual PPI: 6.3% Previous month: 5.6%
Core PPI monthly: +0.5% Forecast: +0.3%
Trading perspective: Don't rush to catch the bottom!
Combined with the previously poor CPI, this PPI significantly increases the risk that the Fed will maintain a tight monetary policy. But to determine the next direction, the most important signals are the reactions after the announcement of bond yields, USD, and Nasdaq — not just the PPI figure alone.
#USCPI3.7%PPIInFocus $BTC $ETH BTC 80807, many people are asking? Will it break below 80,000?
I'm watching this number closely, my palms are a bit sweaty. It's just about 800 away from the 80,000 whole number mark, a needle's width away.
Let's first look at the current situation. September CPI exceeded expectations, with core inflation month-on-month at 0.3% and year-on-year at 2.6%, both higher than expected. The probability of a rate hike surged from 20% to 49%. Although Polymarket shows the probability of no change has returned to 79%, market sentiment has already been dampened. In the past 24 hours, the entire network's liquidations have approached 1 billion, with long positions accounting for 91.6%, a batch of bulls have been taken out.
Now looking at the 80,000 defense line itself. This is not a randomly drawn line. The largest buy orders in Binance spot order book are stacked near 80,000, the average ETF holding cost is about 81,500. Although the price broke through intraday on October 8 and 13, it closed back above those levels.
The fragile points are also obvious. Glassnode bluntly states "the upper side is more fragile than the lower side," with a large number of long liquidation orders accumulated below 80,000, and another cluster near 75,000.
$BTC key levels I mark:
Support: 80,000-80,500, whether it breaks intraday is the first signal; if it closes below 80,500 and ETFs continue to outflow, the "real market average price" at 78,000 is the next stop, then further down to 75,000-77,000.
Resistance: 81,500-82,000, only if it stands back here can it be considered to have recovered; above 83,000 is when we can talk about continuation of the rebound.$SNDK 前几天像打了鸡血，抗量子、独立L1、脱离以太坊，名字一出来社区就上头。可你细看，投票只是初步动作，真切到主网还得熬到明年，中间全是预期在飞。
做单逻辑就一句：叙事把价格顶太高，解锁把卖压递上来。早期筹码成本远低于现价，每月都有释放，反弹缩量、下跌放量，就是获利盘和领取代币的人在跑。日线从暴涨转回调，衍生品仓位又挤，这种位置追多最容易被洗。
我这空单不吃“明天涨不涨”，吃“预期兑现后接不住”。现在平半锁利，止损推到成本附近。剩下仓位看前低承接，站回关键压力就撤，不跟叙事谈恋爱。$ZEC $STRK #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 The probability of a Fed rate hike has dropped below 30%, even after the release of the high CPI data.
Today, the PPI data is about to be released, with an expectation of 5.3%.
Unless we see the PPI reach the 5.7%-5.8% level, I believe the rate hike will be paused this month.On-Chain Health Check for CORE: Three Data Sets, One Conclusion
There are always only two voices in the CORE posts on the Square. "Ten-thousand-fold potential" and "Imminent zeroing," arguing for almost two years.
Today, I take no side. I just do one thing: open the blockchain explorer and turn CORE's underwear inside out, showing you page by page.
No hype, no bashing, no motivational speeches. On-chain data doesn't lie; you judge after seeing it yourself.
First data set: 69 million ghost tokens, where are they now?
Let's clarify the core facts of the 8.31 vulnerability.
The v1.0.26 hard fork destroyed over 150 million excess issued CORE at the protocol level, pulling the total supply back to a hard cap of 2.1 billion. The chain didn't break, blocks are still produced, and staking rewards recovered within 48 hours.
But the hard fork can only upgrade forward; it cannot roll back already confirmed transactions. The 69 million CORE transferred out to external wallets before the fork execution have not been reclaimed, locked, or destroyed to this day.
The cost basis of these tokens is almost zero. What is their current status?
Some in the community have tracked them: some addresses remain silent long-term, some split into smaller addresses in batches. The core issue is not "whether they will dump," but "you don't know when they will dump."
As long as these tokens have no on-chain verifiable lock-up or destruction plan, the valuation ceiling of every rebound round is locked. This is not an emotional judgment but a structural problem.
Second data set: How much of the TVL is real money?
Core DAO is currently the largest Bitcoin sidechain in the BTCFi track by TVL, locking assets over $314 million, staking over 5,500 BTC, accounting for about 26% of all Bitcoin sidechain TVL. Over 76% of Bitcoin hash power participates in maintaining network security. Since mainnet launch, cumulative TVL exceeds $1 billion, with over 31 million unique addresses.
But the TVL metric needs to be broken down.
On-chain analysis shows over 86% of ecosystem TVL is concentrated in "lending + re-staking" modules. What is the essence of these two modules? Leverage stacking. The March 2026 50% CORE crash triggered the Colend liquidation cascade, exposing this structural risk for the first time.
What’s truly worth tracking is the institutional staking volume of lstBTC—long-term locked BTC is the real incremental narrative of BTCFi. Short-term arbitrage and wash trading funds will withdraw once the market changes, causing TVL to shrink instantly.
Currently, the whole network stakes about 7,600+ BTC and 300 million+ CORE, with about 35% of BTC stakers also locking CORE. This number shows the dual staking mechanism is genuinely operating, but staking rewards mainly come from CORE inflation issuance linearly released over 81 years, not external income.
More people are staking, but where does the staked money come from? This question remains unanswered.
Third data set: Is ecosystem fee income enough to cover inflation?
This is the most painful of the three data sets.
The innate structure of CORE tokenomics: staking yields go to BTC stakers; CORE itself has no natural cash flow. The network continuously issues tokens for node rewards and ecosystem incentives, essentially perpetual inflation.
2026 is defined by Core as the "revenue era," with the core logic being to use BTC staking income, SatPay card fees, and other ecosystem revenues to repurchase CORE on the secondary market, replacing inflation subsidies.
But the flagship product SatPay has announced a delay due to licensing and regulatory issues, with over 20,000 users waiting in line and no set launch date. Without real cash flow, the buyback plan is currently just a long-term vision.
How much real income is on-chain now? Colend lending protocol’s 30-day fees are about $400,000, protocol income about $12,700. Core cross-chain bridge 30-day fees about $255.
These numbers are nowhere near the monthly token issuance market value.
The conclusion is straightforward: ecosystem fee income is currently far from covering inflation, and CORE holders’ equity is continuously diluted.
Putting the three data sets together, what’s the answer?
Ghost tokens have no disposal plan + lstBTC institutional funds have not scaled + fee income cannot cover inflation.
None of the three conditions are improving.
This is not a verdict that "CORE will go to zero," nor a forecast that "CORE will take off." This is a project still running but without a commercial closed loop, stuck in the middle.
The chain is alive, code is updating, 76% of Bitcoin hash power protects it, and the hard fork emergency action was indeed effective. But between "being alive" and "running smoothly" lies 69 million tokens, a delayed flagship product, and a revenue curve that hasn’t started yet.
On the practical side, three points:
First, watch the on-chain transfer records of ghost tokens. If one day these addresses show large-scale transfers to exchange wallets, no matter what others say, you know what to do.
Second, watch the institutional staking volume of lstBTC, not total TVL. Total TVL can be leveraged up; institutional long-term staking volume is the real signal.
Third, watch official announcements of SatPay. Product launch doesn’t mean immediate scale income, but without the product, nothing else matters.
Stories can be told arbitrarily, but on-chain data doesn’t lie.
Among these three data sets, which one do you care about most?
$CORE The cold splash from the CPI caused the S&P to end its streak of 53 consecutive days without a drop exceeding 1% last night. Looking at the pre-market today, the KOSPI has already crashed 7.6%, with SK Hynix and Samsung falling 11% and 9.5% respectively. What is the money doing? In one sentence: running away from "storytelling" places and hiding in places with "cash flow." It's very clear in the pre-market. Storage chips continue to get hit, with SanDisk down over 4% and Micron down 3.7%. But interestingly, the triple short semiconductor ETF (SOXS) rose nearly 7% pre-market. The money is not selling semiconductors; it is directly betting on semiconductors to continue falling. On the other side, TLT (20-year US Treasury ETF) rose 1.46% pre-market, money is hiding in bonds. The core contradiction of this wave is not "whether to raise interest rates," but "who will repay AI's debt." CoreWeave's bond yield has already shot above 15%, with the market pricing it as "not surviving beyond five years." This thing is like the first domino; the market suddenly realizes: doing AI requires borrowing money, borrowing money has become more expensive, and those companies leveraging debt to build computing power may collapse first. Directionally, I tend to continue to see adjustments. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has already fallen for six consecutive days, down nearly 12%. But this time it is not a technical correction; it is money repricing the financing cost of AI infrastructure. After the index closed, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell back to 5.186%, indicating the market does not really believe in a rate hike in October but is trading in advance on the expectation of "high rates lasting longer." #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 PPI and retail data released, with expectations exceeding forecasts once again delivering a heavy blow to the market! Inflation concerns and rate hike expectations are increasing!
This PPI and retail data basically negate the two optimistic scenarios I mentioned earlier. PPI proves that energy inflation has transmitted from the supply chain to the corporate side, so subsequent PCE won't look good. Although retail data is weaker than the previous value, it far exceeds expectations, indicating that consumer inflation pressure has not eased.
If we look at last night's CPI, we could conclude that "mainly an energy shock, core inflation has not yet spiraled out of control."
However, combined with this PPI and retail data, it means the price pressure caused by energy inflation is growing, while demand remains resilient. Therefore, the risk of energy inflation spreading to broader inflation is clearly increasing, so September's PCE won't look good.
Currently, according to CME, the probability of rate hikes in October and December has not increased yet. We need to wait for the market to digest tonight's data and adjust pricing accordingly! #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 [Quick Commentary] PPI explodes at 6.3%, BTC tests 81,000: The drop is due to interest rates, not chip dumping
Three things combined:
1. US September PPI year-on-year at 6.3%, expected only 5.3%, upstream inflation far exceeds expectations; combined with yesterday's core CPI all hot in three categories, October rate hike is basically confirmed, December probability further rises.
2. Initial jobless claims at 199,000, lower than expected—employment resilience gives the Fed confidence to "dare to continue raising". Hot inflation + stable employment = higher interest rates for longer, risk asset valuations continue to be suppressed.
3. A whale dormant for 5 years moved 4,582 BTC above $82,000, profiting 9.3 times. But the coins were split into 5 new addresses, not moved to exchanges—self-custody rearrangement, not selling.
In short: Macro is applying pressure, no selling pressure on-chain, this round of decline is driven by interest rate expectations, not chip dumping. Watch the 80,000 level and the 78,423 annual line trigger below; a break will be another story. $CRCL closed at $79.55 yesterday, around $76.1 pre-market, with the market trading new interest rate expectations.
There is an interesting contradiction here.
Circle's main revenue comes from USDC reserve asset yields.
Higher interest rates help maintain reserve yields but may also suppress risk asset valuations and increase competitive pressure in the stablecoin industry.
So, it’s not simple to assume that a rate cut benefits CRCL, nor that a rate hike necessarily benefits it.
Technically, observe the $75–78.3 range.
If it climbs back above $78.3, a rebound to $82–84 can be simulated; breaking below $74 requires reassessment.
An improvement in a company's operating environment does not necessarily mean its stock will rise.
I prefer to wait for both financial logic and price structure to be validated simultaneously.
#Circle财报在即，稳定币增长能否兑现收益？ $BTC Impact on the Fed's October decision: rate hike shifts from "option" to "reality"
After CPI exceeded expectations, the market priced in about a 33%-34% chance of a rate hike in October, with institutions like Huatai still maintaining the view of "pause in October, hike in December."
However, the core PPI month-on-month increase of 0.7% completely breaks this wait-and-see logic.
Producer prices rising at twice the expected rate means CPI faces greater upward transmission pressure in the next 1-2 months. Fed Governor Waller previously stated he "wanted to see today's PPI before making a judgment," and now the data provides a crystal-clear answer: inflation is not under control but is accelerating.
The probability of a rate hike in October will likely jump sharply from 33%-34% to over 50%, and the baseline scenario of the FOMC meeting on October 27-28 "holding steady" is being rapidly overturned.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, earnings hit a record high High returns in live trading can easily mask the potential risk of large drawdowns
The market generally tends to treat impressive monthly returns as proof that this high-leverage swing strategy has sustainable profitability. A leaked trading record shows that the trader rotates operations among three types of assets, with a fast short-term open and close rhythm, achieving a 78.81% paper profit and a 78.21% win rate over the past thirty days.
A variable that is easily overlooked is the maximum drawdown of 48.60% during the same period, including one trade with a significant loss. Under high leverage, short-term profits do not indicate strategy stability; if market rhythm changes, the same method may amplify losses. A signal that can falsify the sustainability of this strategy is the reappearance of a drawdown of a similar magnitude.
Past closing records only represent historical results and do not predict future market trends. Where will you set your current pending order price and stop-loss point?
$BTC $ZEC $ETH $PUMP, $PONS: Both are token issuance platforms with buyback/burn mechanisms. So, can they support the token price? Is it a bottom-fishing opportunity now?
Conclusion first: Both tokens have observational value after their pullbacks, but the current cash flow decline directly weakens the price support.
1️⃣ $PUMP: Buybacks are real buying pressure, but selling pressure risk persists
The protocol rule is to use 50% of net revenue for buyback and burn; in the past 30 days, a total of $29.48 million was repurchased, averaging nearly $980,000 daily, providing some buying support.
However, the platform's revenue recently dropped 16% month-over-month, weakening buyback strength, coupled with monthly token unlocks for the team and investors, which can amplify selling pressure at any time.
Short-term focus is on whether $0.004 stabilizes.
2️⃣ $PONS: Revenue sharply shrinks, buyback flywheel lacks momentum
Current price is $0.30, down over 67% from the high.
The mechanism is 80% of protocol fees automatically TWAP buyback and burn, with the remaining 20% used for operations.
But the problem is: In September, the platform's protocol revenue was about $140 million; in early October, revenue sharply declined, daily trading volume shrank from a peak of $930 million to $100-190 million, and token issuance quantity simultaneously plummeted. Tesla deliveries exceed expectations, so why is the market still focused on profits?
Tesla delivered about 486,500 vehicles in Q3, surpassing market expectations, but still down about 2% year-over-year. This set of numbers is interesting: short-term demand isn’t as bad as imagined, but it’s not a complete turnaround either. What the market is really struggling with now is no longer just how many cars are sold.
If the automotive business stabilizes again, it can certainly support the valuation floor; but Tesla’s high valuation has long been supported by more than just car sales. Robotaxis, autonomous driving, and Optimus are all factored into future expectations. The question is when these stories will turn into sustained revenue rather than just emotional swings after each product launch.
More importantly, good delivery numbers don’t necessarily mean profit margins improve simultaneously. Price cuts, product mix, and production costs all affect the final results. When the earnings report is released on October 21, investors probably won’t just ask “how many were sold,” but will also inquire about automotive gross margin, cash flow, and the commercialization progress of the autonomous driving business.
So this time, although deliveries exceeded expectations, I don’t think it directly equates to a comprehensive fundamental turnaround. It at least proves demand still exists, but to support a higher valuation, Tesla needs to provide answers beyond just sales volume. And if profits continue to be under pressure, even impressive delivery data may not convince the market.
Do you think the market is currently buying into the recovery of a car company, or the future of autonomous driving and robotics? #Tesla deliveries exceed expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus $TSLA The True Historical Story of Bitcoin
During the 2008 global financial crisis, Satoshi Nakamoto published the Bitcoin whitepaper. In 2009, the genesis block was mined, embedding a headline about bank bailouts from The Times as a statement against the trust crisis in traditional finance.
In 2010, a programmer exchanged 10,000 bitcoins for two pizzas, marking Bitcoin's first real-world commodity transaction. In its early days, it was merely an experiment among cryptography geeks with almost no value.
In 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024, Bitcoin underwent four block reward halvings, completing four cycles of bull and bear markets. Each cycle followed a very similar pattern: a prolonged bear market bottoming before the halving, retail investors panic-selling; rising expectations of the halving triggered a bull market, spreading wealth stories widely; after market euphoria peaked, the bubble burst, leading into a deep bear market.
At the 2017 bull market peak, the price neared $20,000; in 2021, it reached a high of $69,000; in 2024, the halving combined with the launch of a US spot ETF brought institutional capital officially into the market.
History tells us: halving only reduces the supply of new tokens and does not guarantee a bull market. Each cycle is a redistribution of chips. Most people find it hard to hold through the entire cycle—either selling at the bottom in panic or chasing at the top and getting trapped. Behind the stories of sudden wealth lies a very high risk of loss.
Supporting commentary:
Bitcoin is not a miracle for overnight riches; it is a decade-spanning, repeatedly unfolding human nature game.Inflation pours cold water again, the rate cut dream needs to be put on hold 🧊
September CPI came out, all lines "off-script":
Overall annual rate 3.7%, 0.1 higher than expected, gasoline bears most of the increase;
Core annual rate 2.6%, expected 2.5%;
Core monthly rate 0.3%, expected 0.2%.
Entertainment, used cars, airfares, medical care, clothing prices rise one after another, this is not a one-time spark, but more like a widespread smoldering fire 🔥
The market immediately changed its tune: bets on rate hikes heat up, even three more hikes before the end of 2027 are on the table. Rate cuts? Don’t line up for that yet 😤
The crypto world naturally feels bad. Originally betting on "oil prices pulling the overall, core still stable," now the core is also exploding, the narrative is directly stuck. If US Treasury yields continue to rise, no-yield assets will continue to be suppressed. 🪙📉
Below 81500-80500 will likely be tested tonight; above 84400-85200, the frying pan turns into an iron plate. High Beta like ETH, $SOL, $ZEC will only fall harder. ETFs are already bleeding, macro factors add more blows, making rebounds very difficult.
Don’t rush to bottom fish, don’t get carried away chasing shorts. Wait 15 to 30 minutes first to see which side the US stock market funds favor at open. The real direction will only be clear after 21:30. Tonight, patience is more valuable than courage ⏳#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 6.3% Drop: Bears Treat Tonight, Bulls Pay the Bill 🔨
The numbers are out: PPI year-on-year 6.3%, month-on-month 1.3%, expected were 5.4% and 0.6%, way above expectations. Retail sales month-on-month 0.8%, consumption still hot, inflation burning on both ends.
A solid beat beyond expectations. Rate hike bets are heating up again, risk assets are having a tough night.
Market: BTC price 80950, just broke 81000; ETH price 2359.55, 2350 right below; SOL price 102.07. ETH volume 289 million, BTC volume 192 million, shorts getting harvested.
Interesting in the long-short ratio: 24-hour shorts across the network at 51.75%, shorts starting to dominate; but BTC and ETH longs by coin still above 55%. Network-wide bearish, individual coins bullish, divergence appears—indicating this drop is macro-driven, not a crypto market crash, mostly sentiment-driven.
I said before "the bulls aren't dead yet," fees are still all positive now, BTC at 0.0049%, ETH at 0.0059%, SOL at 0.0041%. But with the 6.3% drop, "80,000 long positions" need caution, the lower long zone might really be taken out tonight.
How to view tonight: don't catch this first cut. After the surprise lands, the first wave is sentiment, the second wave is direction. Wait for the shorts to finish clearing the first wave before watching. Stay on the sidelines, save your bullets for tomorrow.PPI 1.3% blows past expectations, tonight's outlook leans bearish
$BTC and $ETH just received the 20:30 data: US September PPI month-over-month at 1.3%, expected 0.5%, marking the largest single-month increase since March 2022; core PPI at 0.7%, also double the forecast. As mentioned in the midday review "waiting for PPI to set the direction," the direction is clear now—confirmed bearish. Even more concerning is retail sales month-over-month at 0.8%, far exceeding the expected 0.3%, while initial jobless claims at 199,000 met expectations: a combination of a not-weak economy plus soaring inflation is the hardest to price, betting on a rate hike in October will only rise, and risk assets get hit from both sides.
$BTC currently at $80,742, just shy of the $80,000 support line. Judgment: a confirmed bearish trend if it effectively breaks below 80,000 (based on daily close, not intraday wick), targeting around 77,000. Invalidating condition: if $80,000 holds and US Treasury yields fall, indicating the market chooses to digest the bad news, then a return to the $82,000–$84,000 range. Strategy: do not chase the first bearish break candle, wait for close confirmation to follow the trend; a rebound to $81,500–$82,000 is a signal to reduce positions, not add.# Netflix Growth May Slow, Advertising Business Becomes New Focus
The streaming giant Netflix's traditional subscriber growth has clearly peaked, with user increments entering a bottleneck period, and overall revenue growth continuing to slow. The original growth logic has basically come to an end.
The market's core focus has completely shifted: the advertising business has become Netflix's only high-growth engine.
The data is very impressive, with advertising revenue expected to surge significantly in 2025. The company has set a clear goal to double advertising revenue to $3 billion by 2026. Leveraging AI-driven ad optimization, popular series, and sports live IP support, the scale of paying advertising users continues to expand, which is Netflix's key trump card to stabilize its valuation.
However, there are also critical weaknesses: the advertising business currently accounts for a relatively low share of revenue, making it difficult in the short term to offset the sluggish growth of the subscriber business. U.S. tech stocks now heavily rely on new growth drivers being realized; if advertising growth falls short of expectations, it can easily trigger a valuation correction.
Sentiment in U.S. growth stocks directly affects risk appetite in the crypto market. Weak growth in benchmark stocks like Netflix will suppress the overall tech sector's momentum. In the short term, avoid blindly bullish risk assets, maintain a cautious oscillation approach, wait for corporate earnings reports and new business data to materialize, and strictly apply stop-losses on all trades without prematurely betting on positive news.#TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Earnings Hit Record High #TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Earnings Hit Record High
TSMC's Q3 earnings report is out, the numbers are explosive, but the stock price fell.
Revenue grew 50.9% year-over-year to NT$1.49 trillion, net profit rose 68.7% year-over-year to NT$763.1 billion, setting a quarterly record and surpassing market expectations. The 2nm process accounts for 8% of wafer revenue, and advanced processes overall make up 79%. AI chip demand continues to support performance, this foundation is very solid.
However, the stock price dropped 2.67%. The issue lies in the gross margin guidance. The company gave a range of 65% to 67%, lower than Q2's actual 67.7%. The market worries that even if AI chip demand remains strong, if gross margins decline, it means cost pressures from advanced processes are eating into profits. Additionally, whether capital expenditures will be further increased is something to watch.
For BTC, this is not direct, but the underlying logic is connected. TSMC is a core supplier of AI computing infrastructure; its revenue and profit validate that AI demand is real, and the narrative of the computing power economy remains intact. BTC's long-term logic as an underlying anchor asset still holds. But the weaker gross margin guidance indicates rising costs of burning cash, and the entire semiconductor chain's valuation needs to be reabsorbed. In the short term, BTC is still bearing the pressure of CPI exceeding expectations; the impact of TSMC's earnings report is secondary.
Operationally, don't chase tech stocks just because TSMC's profits exceeded expectations. Wait for PPI data, see how US Treasury yields and the dollar move, then decide whether to enter or not. Multiple U.S. economic data released in the evening collectively showed negative signals: initial jobless claims, September retail sales, and both the annual and monthly PPI all exceeded market expectations. However, negative data does not necessarily mean the market will immediately plunge; the short-term impact of this data is limited, making it difficult to trigger a sharp one-sided market move.
Several data points strengthening simultaneously further confirm that the resilience of the U.S. economy remains, which will continue to support the possibility of the Federal Reserve maintaining a somewhat hawkish stance. However, the influence of a single round of data is limited, and the market is likely to continue its current bottom-range oscillation pattern.
There is no need to blindly short just because of negative data. The focus should be on observing the capital flow release after the U.S. stock market opens in the evening, seeing how the stock market digests this batch of data, and then judging the subsequent direction of the crypto market. At this stage, continue to maintain a range-bound approach and patiently wait for clear signals from the market.
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 $BTC $ETH #TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Profit Hits Record High
TSMC's Q3 performance exceeded expectations: revenue of 1.49 trillion TWD, net profit of 763.1 billion TWD, a year-on-year increase of 68.7%, with 2nm mass production contributing 8%, and advanced process nodes accounting for 79%. AI demand remains the core support. However, the stock price fell instead of rising, indicating that the positive news was already priced in. The market's real concern is that gross margin is dragged down by the initial mass production of 2nm and overseas factory construction, as well as a potential significant expansion in capital expenditure in 2027. Simply put, the fundamentals are very strong, but short-term sentiment has shifted from "chasing the AI narrative" to "calculating AI returns." The key going forward is the Q4 guidance and whether capital expenditure will again exceed expectations; if it only meets expectations, valuation pressure will continue to suppress the stock price. The mid-to-long-term AI logic remains intact, but short-term fluctuations are inevitable. Before the PPI data was released, the market was already falling, and once the data came out, it accelerated the plunge.
$BTC slid all the way from above 83000 to 80168, $ETH dropped to 2315, and $SOL was the worst, hitting a low of 100.46, barely holding the triple digits. Now it has slightly caught its breath, with BTC at 81000, ETH at 2363, and SOL at 102.15.
PPI is 6.3%, expected 5.3%, inflation hasn't come down at all. CPI just exploded, now PPI follows suit. Rate cuts are completely off the table, and the threat of rate hikes is back. This isn't just a single data issue; two consecutive inflation indicators are slapping the face of the market, basically shattering the fantasy of a Fed pivot.
Looking at the market, the first wave of the plunge has just passed, but the bulls haven't given up yet. Positions haven't decreased much, and funding rates haven't turned extremely negative, indicating leverage hasn't been fully cleared. Bottom fishing now is just giving away money; even if you want to try, wait until the market volume shrinks and stabilizes.
I'm still holding shorts, not because I'm bearish, but because in this kind of market, both longs and shorts are easily stopped out. Forcing trades is just giving away money. Let the leverage clear itself first; there's no rush now.
Key support levels below: BTC 80000/78000, ETH 2300/2200, SOL 100/95. Don't rush to catch the round numbers; catching them poorly means bleeding hands.
Did you hold up through tonight's market?
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
#BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Hayes was buying aggressively today, and ZAMA jumped 9% along with it, but this market is too thin to get too excited about.
On-chain monitoring detected that Arthur Hayes bought about $888,000 worth of tokens today through FalconX and Flowdesk, including roughly 3 million ZAMA tokens valued at about $197,000, alongside AERO and PENDLE. ZAMA works on fully homomorphic encryption, which basically means data remains encrypted while being computed on. This fits perfectly into the AI privacy computing narrative. When a celebrity buys in, the funds tend to ignite the story, and OKEx spot price surged up to +9.4% today, reaching around 0.074.
Let's cool down a bit: ZAMA's share in this basket is the smallest, less than 20%, with the real heavy hitter being AERO; plus, the 24-hour spot trading volume is only around $1.55 million, and the price is already close to the intraday high just below 0.076. With such a thin market, a celebrity wallet can be both a tailwind and a trap—easy to pump but also easy to dump without warning.
Watch for one signal: whether Hayes' wallet adds more positions and if the volume can hold above 0.076; relying on a single $197,000 buy to hold the price is risky, and once the hype fades, a pullback is highly probable. DYOR, not investment advice.
#ZAMA #FHE #AI#TSMCQ3RecordProfit New York Fed President Williams speaks with a dovish tone
Williams' role is quite unique; he has a relatively independent position.
He is the only member of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) who is not a member of the Fed's Board of Governors.
As a regional bank president, he is the only permanent member with voting rights in Fed decisions.
Williams believes there may be one more rate hike this year, and no further increases will be needed next year.$ETH data has been released, and it's still all bearish!
To put it simply, PPI usually leads CPI, but this time it came after CPI.
Both the monthly and yearly rates exceeded expectations by a large margin. CPI was bearish ahead, and PPI is bearish afterward, which again raises expectations for future price increases!
My understanding is: PPI is the Producer Price Index. When PPI rises, production costs increase and must be passed on to consumers. However, today's retail sales monthly rate did not signal a cooling in consumption; the reported value even reached 0.8%, meaning consumer willingness and ability remain strong despite high prices.
The conclusion is: both PPI production costs and consumer spending power are pushing inflation higher because the retail sales monthly rate measures total consumption amount (excluding dining out, and other service industries are not included).
Initial jobless claims also did not indicate weakening employment, adding another layer of hawkish evidence!
Today's three data points—PPI, retail sales monthly rate, and initial jobless claims—all point to bearish outcomes.
For reference only, not investment advice. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 清算热力图刚刚更新，四个币种的爆仓点位几乎同时收紧，这比任何单一指标都更值得警惕。$BTC 现价 81,655.8 美元，上方空头最大痛点 83,259.04 美元，距离仅 +1.96%；下方多头最大痛点 81,200.95 美元，距离只有 -0.56%。$ETH 现价 2,417.3 美元，上方 2,463.62 美元（+1.92%），下方 2,396.69 美元（-0.85%）。$SOL 现价 104.39 美元，上方 105.664 美元（+1.22%），下方 103.364 美元（-0.98%）。$ZEC 现价 1,140.51 美元，上方 1,197.072 美元（+4.96%），下方 1,122.714 美元（-1.56%）。 真正值得注意的不是这些数字本身，而是结构：四个币种的下方清算区全部集中在距离现价不到 1.6% 的范围内，而上方痛点却分散在 1.2% 到 5% 之间。这种不对称说明杠杆多头正在同一狭窄地带堆积，一旦触发，清算会像多米诺骨牌一样连锁反应。$ZEC 的下方缓冲区最薄，-1.56% 的间距意味着它对外部波动的容忍度最低，而上方 +4.96% 的空头痛点又$BTC $ETH PPI data explodes, will the bulls completely become fuel when the US stock market opens tonight??
This time, the US PPI data directly exceeded expectations, with the annual rate soaring from the previous 5.4% and expected 5.3% to 6.3%; the monthly rate also rose from the previous 0.4% and expected 0.5% to 1.3%. Inflation pressure on the production side has clearly increased.
More importantly, retail data performed better than expected, indicating that US consumption still has resilience and the economy shows no obvious signs of recession for now. Under these circumstances, the Federal Reserve's room for rate cuts may be further limited.
Previously, market bets on rate hikes had already heated up, and after the PPI exploded again, related expectations may continue to be revised upward. However, rate hikes are not set in stone; future moves will depend on inflation trends, employment data, and the Federal Reserve's policy statements.
If the risk in the Strait of Hormuz continues and oil prices keep rising, inflation pressure may further increase in the future. #USCPI exceeds expectations to 3.7%, PPI faces another test tonight The whole market is looking for a bottom, but institutions are not panicking at all. I reviewed yesterday's ETF data and found something quite unusual.
First, look at $BTC with a net outflow of 31.44 million yesterday. BlackRock sold 13.34 million, Fidelity sold 18.36 million. They just bought over 20 million the day before, and sold it all the next day. This shows institutions are just testing BTC, pulling back immediately once CPI spikes.
Next, $ETH had a net outflow of only 51,900. Grayscale sold a little, BlackRock sold a little, basically no movement. The price has dropped to 2315, yet institutions neither buy nor sell, just watching.
$SOL is even more interesting: net outflow of 12,200, only Bitwise is selling. This is the 8th consecutive day of outflows, but compared to tens of millions in previous days, today's volume is almost negligible. The main force dumping the price is no longer ETFs, but longs in the contracts themselves stepping on each other.
My conclusion: institutions are not panicking, they are waiting. The selling pressure on ETH and SOL is actually decreasing. This current drop is mainly long liquidation by longs against longs. The SOL long-short ratio is still 2.68, longs haven't fully exited, so the chain reaction isn't over. Bottom fishing in this market is a gamble; wait until liquidation data is mostly out and the market stabilizes before considering action.
Key levels to note: BTC 80,000 / 78,000, ETH 2,300 / 2,200, SOL 100 / 95. Pure ETF flow and market observation, not any trading advice.This time, the US CPI data exceeded market expectations, confirming inflation stickiness. The market has lowered expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. US Treasury real yields and the US dollar index are rising, global financial conditions are marginally tightening, and risk appetite in the crypto market is simultaneously declining. The market structure shows differentiation characteristics: Bitcoin is relatively resilient, while Ethereum and altcoins have larger adjustment ranges; contract market leverage longs are concentrated in stop-loss, with a clear short-term capital clearing feature.
Regarding the subsequent market trend, the short-term market is likely to maintain a weak oscillation pattern. The data continues to decline, and the market rebound is more of a phased repair; the core observation indicators going forward are the core PCE data and policy statements from Federal Reserve officials. Changes in liquidity expectations remain the core variable guiding the mid-term direction of the crypto space.