Orbit Post Sitemap
The US September PPI annual rate recorded 6.3%, the highest since May 2026, exceeding market expectations.
As soon as the data came out, inflation exploded again. Is the Federal Reserve's plan to cut interest rates completely shattered?
For the week of October 10, initial jobless claims were 199,000, below the expected 200,000, with the previous value revised to 198,000. The labor market remains tight. The September PPI annual rate soared to 6.3%, far exceeding the expected 5.3%, with the previous value revised upward to 5.6%. Inflationary pressure on the production side has directly exploded.
Here is a counterintuitive perspective: initial jobless claims seem healthy, but the PPI surge indicates that cost pressures are intensely squeezing the end consumer.
Currently, companies would rather squeeze profit margins than lay off employees lightly, creating a stagflation shadow where employment appears stable but corporate profits are under pressure.
PPI is usually a leading indicator of CPI.
With production costs out of control, consumer inflation in the coming months will not decrease at all. The market's previously bet high-frequency rate cut logic has been shattered, and the Federal Reserve is now trapped in an extremely passive and awkward situation.
It is estimated that in the short term, risk assets such as US stocks and the crypto market will face severe shocks from liquidity repricing. The hawkish camp within the Federal Reserve will quickly rise, and it is even possible that discussions about pausing rate cuts will be revisited.
It is recommended to avoid high leverage in the short term, focus more on assets with stable cash flow, and prepare for a second test of liquidity tightening.
DYOR
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, earnings hit a record high
However, the stock price reaction is moderate, mainly because expectations are already very high. The ramp-up of 2nm will pressure profit margins, coupled with huge capital expenditures. Management is also cautious about next year, so don't expect a big surge in the short term. US September PPI exploded: final demand month-on-month +1.3% (expected about +0.6%), year-on-year +6.3% (expected about +5.4%), year-on-year excluding food, energy, trade, and services +5.0%. This is one of the strongest year-on-year increases since the end of 2022, another round of upstream inflation pressure following the hotter-than-expected CPI. Short-term risk assets should first watch for volatility; avoid chasing highs or panic selling. BTC spot around 80930 USDT, ETH around 2358 (Beijing 20:37, OKX). This does not constitute investment advice.Three consecutive bearish candles, but the reasons for the decline are not the same.
On the same day of decline, $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL each have their own sources of selling pressure.
For $BTC, it's a sentiment retreat:
No large holders collectively withdrawing on-chain, and there is still support near the 400-day moving average.
For $ETH, it's capital moving:
ETF has continuous net outflows, wallet balances are migrating out, indicating holders are actively reducing positions.
For $SOL, the pressure is on the contract side:
Perpetual shorts are increasing, leverage is pushing the price down, while spot outflows are relatively limited.
In other words, the one that fell sharply did not see much chip turnover.
The one that fell steadily is where money is truly flowing out.
#BTC spot ETF net outflows again, can institutional buying recover?
#$BTC $ETH US September PPI rose 1.3% month-on-month, expected 0.5%, previous 0.4%; core PPI rose 0.7% month-on-month, expected 0.3%, previous 0.2%. Both readings significantly exceeded market expectations and accelerated noticeably compared to August. Historically, the PPI month-on-month has been positive and rising for two consecutive months: 1.1% in May, turning negative to -0.3% in June, back to 0% in July, rising to 0.4% in August, and September's 1.3% is the highest in this sequence. The core PPI's 0.7% is also the highest growth rate in recent months, indicating that price pressures excluding food and energy are also expanding, rather than a single component pushing up the overall reading. The simultaneous acceleration of producer prices means that the cost increases faced by companies are spreading. Whether this will be passed on to consumer prices will be a key observation point for the market to judge the inflation path. #USCPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, tonight PPI faces another test Funding rates first "leak" 📊
At 20:30 tonight, before the CPI release, funding rates have already been settled. $BTC on two major platforms is almost hugging the zero line: 0.0039%, 0.0035%, both longs and shorts are restrained. 82,500 is repeatedly tested but still holding, 84,000 is also suppressed, the price seems to be holding its breath waiting for the data. ⏳
$ETH is clearly split: Platform B's rate has turned negative to -0.0043%, shorts start paying; Platform A's cumulative rate remains +0.0082%. Some are betting on a catch-up rally, others continue to be bearish. Spot ETFs continue to bleed, institutional interest is weaker than BTC, making ETH the most directionless and most afraid of a CPI surprise. ⚖️
$SOL is more direct: cumulative 0.0163%, real-time only 0.0033%, the tide is receding quickly. Price has returned near 107, bulls no longer add positions, courage is being consumed. 📉
Overall: BTC is neutral waiting for change, ETH longs and shorts are torn, SOL bulls are retreating. The macro environment is also tough: ETFs had a net outflow of 679 million last week, ETH outflow of 542 million; the US dollar index is at an 18-month high, 10-year US Treasury yield exceeds 5.2%. Weak funding rates + capital outflows + tight macro conditions, under triple pressure, the market is not without direction, but no one dares to bet first. 🚨#US CPI unexpectedly rises to 3.7%, tonight PPI faces another test #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit record highs #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus Solana has entered Shanghai and is vigorously expanding its Asia-Pacific ecosystem, mainly to compete for ETH developers, application projects, and market share.
SOL and ETH have fundamental differences in technical routes, philosophy, and market positioning, currently showing more of a long-term coexistence and intense competition dynamic.【Project Research】ASTER: A Perpetual DEX with 99% Fees Used for Buybacks, Three Hidden Risks Under the Halo
ASTER was formed by the merger of Astherus and APX, launching its own public chain Aster Chain (privacy + zero Gas) in March 2026, backed by YZi Labs. Rapid growth: 24-hour perpetual trading volume is about $1.65 billion, accounting for approximately 9.4% of the entire industry, TVL is $776 million, and open interest is $1.35 billion.
The token model is the biggest selling point: starting June, 99% of protocol revenue is used for buyback and burn, and emissions are only released through staking, resulting in selling pressure better than most DEXs. But three risks must be laid out:
1. The top 10 addresses control about 93% of the supply, indicating highly concentrated holdings;
2. Only 34% is circulating, FDV is 3 times the market cap, and the team’s lock-up expires in September 2027;
3. Trading volume includes task incentive inflation, and up to 1001x leverage is a meat grinder for retail investors.
The mechanism innovation is real, but so are the risks of concentrated holdings and leverage. Before participating, closely monitor the real data of the Aster Chain ecosystem, and don’t be persuaded by the buyback narrative alone.CPI cold shot! BTC holds at 80,000, ETH weakens first? 😶🌫️📉
Core CPI at 2.6%, 0.1 higher than expected, all eyes on it tonight. ⚠️
10 minutes after data release: 10-year US Treasury yield jumped from 5.19% to 5.27%, BTC down 1.8%, gold down 1.0%, Nasdaq futures down 0.8%. Earlier, gold and crypto took the hit first; now stock index futures are also down, anxiety has escalated from “high interest rates maintained” to “possibly more hikes.” 📉🪙
Before the data, BTC was hovering around 81,700, ETH was even weaker near 2,400. With the boot dropped, the trend is bearish. BTC is just one step away from 80,000; without easing rates, it’s hard for it to strengthen independently. Watch 81,000 below first. ETH’s weak structure remains unchanged, altcoins continue to lose liquidity. 🧊
Tonight, I’m holding my position. Data doesn’t lie; what lies is your illusion about the data.Oh no, another round of waterfall
September PPI exceeded expectations along with retail exceeding expectations
Supply chain costs rising + strong consumer demand
Indicates that inflation driven by rising energy prices is permeating other sectorsUS September Producer Prices Rose Faster: The PPI released at 20:30 on October 15 showed a month-on-month increase of 1.3%, higher than the revised 0.5% in August; year-on-year up 6.3%. PPI measures the prices producers receive for selling goods and services, not the consumer shopping bill.
Energy is the main driver: commodity prices rose 2.6% month-on-month, with over 80% of the increase coming from energy. But excluding food, energy, and trade services, the index still rose 0.5%, faster than August's 0.3%, indicating pressure is not only from oil prices.
Directly affected are companies purchasing these goods and services. After cost increases, companies may compress profits or try to raise prices; how much can be passed on depends on demand and competition, so the PPI increase cannot be directly applied to consumer prices.
For BTC, transmission goes through interest rate expectations: if the market expects high rates to persist longer and the dollar to strengthen, risk asset buying may be pressured. Next, watch the actual reactions of US Treasury yields, the dollar, and BTC, rather than treating one data point as a definite signal for price moves.
Source and chart: US Bureau of Labor Statistics September PPI, reviewed on 10/15; month-on-month is seasonally adjusted, year-on-year is not. The BTC/USDT spot below is for macro market observation only.
https://www.okx.com/zh-hans/trade-spot/btc-usdtSeptember CPI recorded 3.7% and ETF net outflow of $585 million, OKX BTC rate stuck at 0.0009% in the first two hours before US stock market opens
September inflation exceeded expectations, rising to 3.7%. BTC spot on OKX traded at $80,950.7 turnover. Those with orders before US market opens should first watch the external market. Last night, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a sudden outflow of $585.9 million. I checked QCP's research report this afternoon; the daily traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to 1, crude oil and energy prices rose 5.2% in a month, pushing inflation data higher again. External US bonds and corporate spreads widened. With two hours left before the US stock market opens at 21:30, on-exchange buying has clearly contracted.
I switched to OKX futures to check the market. BTC spot dropped 2.93% in one day, consolidating around $80,950.7. Total perpetual contract open interest across the platform stands at $7.694 billion, BTC perpetuals account for $3.113 billion, altcoin contracts $2.874 billion, with altcoin to BTC open interest ratio at 0.923. BTC funding rate is stuck at 0.0009%, annualized less than 1%, indicating neither longs nor shorts dared to increase leverage before the market opens. The fear and greed index is at 53, neutral. BTC market dominance rose to 60.01%, funds are still lying in spot.
External inflation exceeding expectations combined with ETF capital outflows makes betting on a one-sided rebound before market open not worthwhile. # TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Earnings Hit Record Highs TSMC Q3 Earnings Report Analysis: Performance Hits Record Highs, AI Demand Drives Growth, but Stock Price Pulls Back
TSMC (TSM) released its Q3 2026 earnings report, delivering results that significantly exceeded market expectations. Both quarterly revenue and net profit reached record highs for the quarter. Demand for AI chips was the core driver of this performance growth. However, following the earnings release, TSM and xTSM shares in the US market fell sharply by over 5% intraday, showing a typical "good news priced in" reaction.
Summary
In the short term, AI computing power demand remains strong, and TSMC's advanced capacity is in short supply, demonstrating strong fundamental resilience. However, the medium-term challenges include margin pressure from the ramp-up of 2nm technology and continued high capital expenditures, compounded by valuations that already reflect optimistic expectations. Going forward, two key points to watch are: first, whether the Q4 revenue guidance can continue to exceed expectations; second, whether capital expenditures will continue to be raised. These two factors will determine TSMC's future stock price trend. Not giving trading calls today, just saying some truths that might get me criticized.
The most surreal thing in the crypto space lately is:
On one hand, regulators are finally getting serious, with USDC being targeted by the EU's EBA;
On the other hand, exchanges are also going through a winter, even Binance has started cutting peripheral businesses like mining pools;
Meanwhile, tech-driven projects like Solana are still preparing big moves, with Alpenglow approaching, aiming directly at faster final confirmations.
It looks like a chaotic mix of good and bad news, but the main storyline is just one sentence:
Liquidity hasn’t returned, yet the stories are getting more expensive.
Many retail investors lose money not because they picked the wrong direction, but because they got the timing wrong.
Chasing the first candle after news breaks, bottom-fishing on the eve of a breakdown, going all-in before an upgrade betting on “good news landing.”
You’re not trading, you’re paying an emotional tax to the market.
Now I only focus on three things.
First, don’t oversimplify regulation as “all bad news is priced in.”
Stablecoins being regulated is a long-term industry entry ticket, but a short-term cost.
Those that survive will be more compliant, but more compliant doesn’t mean immediate price gains.
Small coins, wild exchanges, and arbitrage-dependent chains will feel the chill first.
Second, don’t take big players’ cutbacks as faith refills.
Exchanges cutting business means even traffic sources are calculating ROI.
When an industry starts closing inefficient entry points, it’s not doomsday, but it’s definitely not the roaring mid-bull market.
Third, don’t get ahead of yourself on public chain upgrades.
If speed-ups like Solana’s go smoothly, it’s indeed a narrative boost;
but before upgrades, three scenarios are most common: premature pump to cash out, panic from temporary glitches, and “good news fully priced in” after launch.
Technology is a marathon, contracts are a sprint, don’t hang the marathon medal around your neck too early.
Macro is even more obvious.
Inflation data isn’t cooperating, no matter how much the market talks about rate cuts, it will be like the boy who cried wolf.
The biggest taboo in crypto now isn’t shorting, it’s low-leverage shorts on high-volatility news, and high-leverage shorts on your own execution.
So I set three no-dos for October:
Don’t chase the first candle after news;
Don’t catch falling knives near key supports;
Don’t use high leverage to bet on any upgrades, listings, or hearings.
Only trade three types of moves:
Trend confirmations after close,
Rebounds after fake breakouts at key levels,
And stop losses within your own plan.
The harshest truth in this market is:
Bull markets reward position size, bear markets reward patience, and sideways markets reward not being impulsive.
Clearly, now is not the time to reward position size.
In the comments, share your “target price.”
Share your most painful recent lesson.Will history repeat itself? There is a widely discussed midterm election curse in the US stock market and BTC.
Reviewing past cycles:
🔹 2014: BTC found its bottom 71 days after the midterm election concluded
🔹 2018: BTC found its bottom 39 days after the midterm election concluded
🔹 2022: BTC found its bottom just 13 days after the midterm election concluded
The shortening from 71 days to 39 days, then down to 13 days, is worth noting:
1️⃣ The institutionalization of BTC continues to rise, with capital no longer passively waiting for clear landing signals; front-running trades are becoming more common.
2️⃣ The binding with macro liquidity deepens; after midterm elections, there is often a window for policy expectation adjustments and liquidity repricing.
It is clear that the bottoming time is arriving earlier with each cycle.
So, will this pattern replicate in 2026?
There are three key observation indicators that are more important than simply applying historical patterns:
1️⃣ Are there signs of marginal improvement in macro liquidity?
2️⃣ During BTC's pullback, is open interest (OI) rising or continuously falling?
3️⃣ When the market is unanimously pessimistic, does the price refuse to make new lows?
If the price declines accompanied by a continuous drop in OI, it is likely passive deleveraging; only when the price stabilizes and active buying continues should it be considered a significant reversal signal. $BTC $ETH $SOL #TradingVoice: Your experience deserves to be heard TSMC's revenue has already exceeded expectations, so what is the Thursday earnings call really about?
TSMC's Q3 revenue was actually announced early, about $46.7 billion, higher than the company's own forecast of $44.6 to $45.8 billion. The Thursday earnings call isn't about revenue, but about the costs behind that revenue.
closed at $485.80 on 10/6, with this year's high at $487.47; the latest available close is $472.20 on 10/8.The more analysts turn bullish, the more the price goes down
$BTC is currently at $81,480.
It has dropped 2.02% in 24 hours.
The reason for the drop is not within the crypto circle:
Inflation data was higher than expected.
Chip stocks took another round of selling.
Nasdaq 100 fell 2%.
The dollar rose to its highest since May 2025.
Money is withdrawing from high-volatility places, first returning to the dollar.
Crypto assets are at the front of this queue.
So even if analysts turn bullish, the price still goes down.
The figure 81,480 is not caused by someone dumping.
It’s because the dollar became more expensive, and fewer people are willing to buy.
With thin buying, the same sell orders can push the price down more.
Analysts focus on the crypto circle internally.
The price reflects money outside the crypto circle.
#BTC spot ETF sees net outflow again, can institutional buying warm up?
#$BTC #TSMCQ3RecordProfit TSMC's revenue record was known in the market before October 15. And when the same matter is treated as surprising good news on the financial report day, the timing may be a step late.
The company announced on October 8 that September revenue rose 54.6% year-on-year and fell 0.6% month-on-month. This variation is interesting: strong long-term growth does not necessarily mean every month is higher than the previous month. Minor monthly changes are not enough to conclude the demand for AI as a whole.
After the advance disclosure of monthly revenue,ZEC｜Can the attention turn into sustained buying pressure?
October 15, 16:37 (Beijing), OKX spot at 1,108.35 USDT, down 11.35% in 24 hours, low at 1,073.76. The price is still below the 20-period moving averages on the 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily charts, currently looking more like a correction after a decline.
I will watch if 1,074 can hold. Only with a volume-backed close back above 1,121 is there a chance to test the resistance zone at 1,142–1,156; if 1,074 is lost again, beware of continued downside. The rebound volume between 15:00–16:00 was only about 38% of the previous hour, so confirmation of support is still needed.
Fundamentally, attention is on the NU7 test progress announced by the government on October 2: the block time target was shortened from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, but this should not be considered a suddenly realized mainnet benefit today. Tonight at 20:30, the US PPI (BLS) may also amplify volatility.
Attached is my record of closing a 15x short perpetual ZEC position: opened at 1,133.67, closed at 1,151.10, which does not represent current holdings.
Search interest can bring attention, but trend reversal still requires sustained buying to verify.
#USCPI exceeds expectations to 3.7%, PPI faces another test tonight $ZEC #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profit hits record high The market already knew about TSMC's revenue record before October 15. Treating the same fact as a sudden positive surprise on the earnings day might be a step behind the rhythm.
The company announced on October 8 that September revenue increased 54.6% year-on-year but decreased 0.6% month-on-month. This contrast is interesting: strong long-term growth does not mean every month is higher than the previous one. Small monthly fluctuations are not enough to conclude the overall AI demand.
After the monthly revenue was disclosed in advance, the focus of the earnings report should move forward. How the next quarter's orders are arranged, which demands can be sustained, and whether customers pull orders forward are more informative than repeating the already public total revenue.
In the conference call, I especially want to hear about the timing distribution of orders. If customers place orders early to lock in supply, and the demand expands in sync with actual usage, it means different things for the next few quarters. It is not yet clear which situation it is. This question is worth keeping.
Being optimistic about TSMC does not mean expecting only good news at every step. Strong companies also face changes in order rhythms. What really makes me cautious is that people increasingly need bigger growth numbers to be satisfied, yet no one asks what can exceed expectations next quarter. For this earnings report, I want to hear more about follow-up arrangements and less about celebrating existing records.
$BTC $ETH $CRCL #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
TSMC's Q3 net profit exceeded expectations, setting a record high in earnings. The Q3 outperformance is not due to a sudden rebound in AI demand, but because AI chip orders have spread from NVIDIA to the entire advanced process segment. TSMC has become the most certain toll station in this round of the computing power race.
Basis: Q3 net profit hit a record high, gross margin around 60%, HPC accounts for nearly 60% of revenue. 2nm has started contributing, CoWoS capacity remains a bottleneck. Market reaction is mild because the outperformance was already priced in.
Details: The real focus is on Q4 guidance and 2027 capital expenditure. The stock price hasn't surged, indicating buyers are waiting for clearer expansion signals.
Watch two indicators — whether CoWoS monthly capacity can continue to ramp up, and whether 2nm yield can stay stable above 80%. If both are stable, the AI hardware narrative is not over; if one is missing, this outperformance is just a temporary peak.$SNDK SanDisk｜1372 was pierced before the market opened, but I only recognize the daily close; if it doesn't close back above, it will go down to 1157
Two days ago it was 28 points off, so I said it didn't count as hitting; today before the market opened at 1341, 1372 was already reached intraday.
However, my discipline remains unchanged: a pre-market piercing does not count as confirmation; only if the daily close fails to recover 1372 is it considered a true break.
The chart is very clear: yesterday before the market opened at 1420, it couldn't get back above 1500, and the opening continued to drop, indicating this storage wave is not a shakeout but a trend downtrend.
1372 is a key daily support; now that it has been pierced pre-market, I will not catch a falling knife here. Before a bottoming signal appears, all rebounds are first seen as loss reduction, not reversal.
🔸 Daily close recovers 1372 → counts as an oversold rebound, first resistance at 1420, strong resistance at 1500; if it can't pass 1500, the bias remains bearish
🔸 Daily close confirms losing 1372 → next target 1157
From 1341 to 1157 is still 184 points. Before the trend breaks, I won't guess the bottom; if it really turns strong, it must first recover 1372, then take 1500, otherwise it is just a downtrend continuation. Under the comprehensive CPI shock exceeding expectations at 80,900 USD—82,000 is the recovery threshold. ETF outflows have continued for two days, with intensive buying support below 80,000. Friday's speech by Walsh is the most important short-term directional guide.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #US CPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, and tonight PPI faces another test Yesterday's core CPI exceeded expectations, tearing apart the excuse of blaming oil prices. If PPI continues to rise, it signals to the market that inflationary pressure is transmitting to the production side, making it even harder for the Federal Reserve to remain inactive.
First, let's talk about $BTC Bitcoin. After the CPI release, Bitcoin was hit down to around 80,000, with ETF net outflows of 261 million in a single day; Fidelity alone withdrew 153 million, wiping out the previous day's inflows. However, there is divergence on-chain: large holders' positions rose to 3.03 million coins, with the fastest monthly growth since February. Institutions are withdrawing, but large holders on-chain are accumulating, shifting chips from fast money to slow money.
Next, $ETH Ethereum. ETF net outflows reached 130 million in one day, with no inflows across ten products. It is the preferred withdrawal machine for institutions retreating; when Bitcoin weakens, it falls the hardest. The only positive sign is that leverage has dropped to a low level; if the price holds above key support, short covering could bring a brief rebound.
Finally, $XAUT Gold. After breaking below 4,100, gold bounced back above 4,150. Futures speculative longs are exiting, while gold ETFs and central banks continue to accumulate. Central banks have increased holdings for 23 consecutive months, with 740,000 ounces added in September alone—the largest this round. Speculators are exiting, allocation players are entering; this is the biggest difference between gold and Bitcoin.
PPI reflects whether upstream inflation is spreading. Short-term trading is not recommended; reduce leverage first and avoid chasing the data week's candlesticks. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 为啥台积电赚翻了，股价反而跌了？
很多人第一眼看到新闻，都会觉得奇怪：
利润创出历史新高，大涨接近70%，按理来说股票应该猛冲一把才对，结果反倒跌了3个点。
这里有一个很扎心的道理：股市买的不是过去的成绩，而是未来的预期。
在这份财报出来之前，大量投资者早就猜到台积电会大赚一笔。看好的人提前下手，把价格已经给炒上去了。
等到正式的好消息对外公布那一刻，就是老话讲的：利好落地，便是兑现。📊 History always astonishingly similar? The "Midterm Election Curse" of the US stock market and Bitcoin
Looking back at the past cycles:
🔹 2014: BTC bottomed 71 days after the midterm election
🔹 2018: BTC bottomed 39 days after the midterm election
🔹 2022: BTC bottomed 13 days after the midterm election
From 71 days to 39 days to 13 days, the data doesn't lie:
1️⃣ Institutional acceleration: capital no longer waits for long certainty, front-running becomes the norm.
2️⃣ Deepening macro linkage: the policy implementation period after the midterm election is the moment of liquidity restructuring. An interesting phenomenon: the bottoming time seems to be getting earlier.
Will there be new changes in 2026?
But I am more concerned about three questions:
1️⃣ Has macro liquidity started to improve?
2️⃣ When BTC falls, is open interest increasing or decreasing?
3️⃣ When the market is generally bearish, does the price start to refuse new lows?
If the price falls and open interest decreases, it may indicate deleveraging; if price then stabilizes and active buying strengthens, it is worth further observing reversal opportunities. $ETH is falling like a dam breaking; the ones who should really be panicking are those "who think they're bottom fishing." Have you noticed that hype and support strength are not the same thing? Last night, watching the market, my first reaction wasn’t panic but a kind of exhaustion thinking, "Why is this script repeating again?" $ETH kept dropping steadily, and the group chat was full of wails. Some said they wanted to short but feared being the last ones chasing the short—this kind of dilemma I understand very well. But emotions aside, what’s really trading in the market is another matter. On the surface, $BTC is rumored to possibly drop to 80,000, and for $ETH, if there’s a weekly-level correction, around 2130 is the first decent observation point, then below 2000. The numbers are scary, but what I want to say is: the reason these price levels keep being mentioned is precisely because many have already priced them in. The real risk isn’t at these round number levels but in how quickly altcoin support disappears if the weekly chart really turns bad. That phrase from $BCH, "Hold on and you’ll see the rainbow," sounds inspiring, but if you think carefully, this narrative itself is a typical signal of an emotional market—people are starting to replace position management with faith. Whether the margin can hold is more realistic than whether the direction is right. My personal preferred scenario is this: if this wave is just a weekly-level pullback, BTC should see obvious spot buying around 80,000, ETH will have capital probing between 2130 and 2000, altcoins will fall but not crash, sentiment will shift from panic to numbness, and then a decent rebound will follow. This is the bullish path. But on the other hand,US inflation data exceeded expectations, and the major markets weakened across the board in the past 24 hours, with BTC down 3.5% and ETH down 3.1%. Funds have clearly withdrawn from mainstream coins, flocking to USDC and USDT. SOL, XRP, ZEC, CRO, STRK, and others generally fell between 3% and 7%. This is a macro-driven broad decline, not a problem with the projects themselves, so don’t rush to cut losses.
I just wiped the barrier pole at the door, my hands are covered in dust, and I took a glance at the market.
BTC current price is 81001. On TradingView, the short-term moving averages have already formed a death cross, the MACD histogram is shrinking, and the RSI has dropped back after hitting overbought levels. The correction pressure is real. But the CoinGlass liquidation map is even more critical: there are large amounts of long and short liquidations clustered around 81000, with significant long stop losses and dense long positions above at 81600 and 82200, while short positions below 80000 are sparse. Simply put, there’s not much to sell off downward, but pushing upward is the real trigger point.
In terms of operation, I’m not chasing shorts. I will buy long positions in batches on pullbacks between 80500 and 80800, with a stop loss at 79800—if it breaks below, I admit the mistake. The first take-profit target is 81600, the second is 82200; reduce positions and exit when reaching the liquidation dense area. The large volume of long positions above is the fuel for the rally, so be patient and wait for it to ignite.
Working the night shift today, just made instant noodles, and will focus on this trade first.
$BTC
#Korean stocks fell nearly 8% intraday, global tech stocks collectively under pressure
@OKX Planet $ETH brothers, it has been falling since yesterday, so where exactly is the bottom?
This morning at 2400, some said it was definitely the bottom, now at 2364 holding steady, others are calling it the bottom again. But the bottom isn't guessed; it depends on signals.
Currently, Binance's long-short ratio is at 3.1, indicating retail investors are rushing in to bottom-fish and go long, thinking a reversal is imminent. But the large accounts' long-short ratio is only 1.4; the big players aren't in such a hurry. Retail investors are desperately catching the falling knife, while the big players are just watching from the sidelines. In this situation, another drop is highly probable.
The market looks stable, but this can't be taken as a sign of reversal. We need to wait for entry signals.
First, wait for the long-short ratio to drop. Retail longs need to be flushed out, and the ratio should return near 1.5, so market sentiment isn't so crowded, then it's safer. The futures market isn't easy; most retail investors get harvested. I often watch whale movements closely before placing orders.
Second, wait for a volume-increasing bullish candle. Low volume stabilization only stops the fall, it’s not a reversal. We must see a volume-increasing bullish candle that pulls the price back above a key resistance level to confirm real capital entering.
Third, wait for the large accounts' long-short ratio to rise. When big players start adding long positions, that’s the real indicator.
The clear approach is to wait. I must catch this bottom in this wave.大家都在猜底在哪，但机构其实一点不慌，我扒了昨天的ETF数据，发现个挺反常的情况。
先说大饼，昨天净流出3144万，贝莱德出了1334万，富达出了1836万。前一天刚进的两千多万，转头就全甩了，这明显说明机构在BTC上就是打一枪试试，CPI一炸立马收手。
再看二饼，净流出才5.19万。灰度出了点，贝莱德出了点，基本等于原地踏步。价格都砸到2315了，机构既不接也不跑，全在观望。
SOL更有意思，净流出1.22万，就Bitwise在出。连续第8天流出了，但跟前几天动不动几千万比，今天这点量基本可以忽略，说明砸盘主力早就不是ETF了，是合约里多头互相踩踏。
我的判断：机构根本没在恐慌，他们是在等，ETH和SOL的抛压其实在收窄，现在这跌法主要是多杀多，SOL多空比还挂在2.68，多头还没跑完，连环爆仓还没收尾。
我现在手上空仓，这种行情去接刀就是赌，等清算数据出干净了，盘面彻底稳下来再说。
关键位置：大饼80000/78000，二饼2300/2200，SOL 100/95
$BTC $ETH $SOL #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 $XAU
Current price 4156.9, 24h -0.02%
Gold plunged to 4082.2 last night and has been slowly climbing back today.
48-hour script unfolded:
10-13 21:00 High 4195.7
10-15 00:00 Bottom hit 4082.2
After the hammer bottom, the low points have been rising steadily,
now back to 4156.9,
recovering 65.8% of the 113.5-point drop.
Since daytime today, 12 consecutive 1H candles
closed above MA20 (4138.05),
short-term focus is indeed in repair.
But volume tells another story:
The 1H candle that hit the bottom had a full 22.54 million U,
recent two rebound candles only 7.55 million / 9.18 million U,
shrunk to 30-40% — buyers are hesitating.
Position is also indecisive:
Up to 48h high 4195.7 is only 0.93% away
Down back to 4082.2 requires a 1.8% drop
Both sides are close, the odds here are less than 2:1 for action.
Set conditions first:
① If 1H volume expands and closes above 4195.7, and the pullback does not break below
→ then go long, otherwise no action
② If 1H closes below 4138.05
→ this repair is deemed false, wait again
Neither condition met, watch and wait.
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)US September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, with core inflation also higher than expected, putting full pressure on the Federal Reserve 😮💨. The market originally hoped for a pause in policy, but now the plan has to be reconsidered. My feeling is that the trouble is not how much higher it went, but the strong stickiness of inflation; just after the hike, it might not be over yet. US Treasury yields continue to climb, risk assets inevitably frown, but bad news does not mean a crash; the key is whether buyers step in.
$BTC: Watch the 80,000 defense line first 🛡️. If it can't reclaim 83,000–84,000, the rebound will be difficult; once support is lost, beware of retesting lower.
$ETH: Focus on 2,500 for Ethereum 🎯. Under Bitcoin's pressure, ETH struggles to stand alone and must first reclaim key resistance; currently it has fallen below 2,400 again, which is indeed tough.
$ZEC: Stay cautious ⚠️. Support at 1,100, rebound strength at 1,200. It fluctuates more and falls harder in a weak market.
My view: Inflation data is bearish, but don't rush to short. First confirm BTC's key levels, then see if ETH and ZEC can hold. Direction is unclear; don't get confused by a single bearish candle, nor get overly optimistic on a rebound.
Personal opinion, not investment advice. #USCPIexceedsexpectationsat3.7%,Tonight'sPPItest #TSMCQ3netprofitexceedsexpectations,recordhighprofits #Netflixgrowthmayslow,advertisingbusinessisnewfocus Last night CPI shocked the market, but BTC went against the trend?🤔
The US September CPI gave the market another lesson: overall 3.7%, core 2.6%, both exceeding expectations, with gasoline prices as the behind-the-scenes driver. The Fed's biggest headache, core inflation, remains stubborn as a rock. The probability of a rate hike in October jumped from 22% to 49%, and normally, risk assets should tremble.
But the crypto market refuses to follow the script.
$BTC plunged sharply to 82,000 after the data, with a drop of only 1%-2%, and panic selling was scarce. $ETH was even more rebellious, falling then immediately bouncing back with a strong green candle, catching the bears off guard. The market logic seems to have changed its core: bad news is treated as good news, and good news actually hits the market.
The capital flow is even more interesting: the day before the CPI release, $BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of $175 million; the ETH ETF ended a ten-day losing streak with a net inflow of $24.83 million, with Grayscale Mini ETH alone accounting for $16.72 million. Institutions haven't fled; instead, they quietly picked up chips amid macro panic.😏
So the question arises: will $BTC continue to test the bottom, or is it brewing a rebound? When bad news can't move the market and capital is still flowing in, the answer might already be written on the chart. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 As mentioned yesterday, after BTC found a bottom and consolidated around 81500, it once again plunged during the Asian session, launching the third attack in recent weeks on the 80000 round number. During the consolidation phase, spot contracts showed some absorption but still lacked active buying, with the sentiment for a downward move intensifying. Subsequently, the price dropped again during the Asian session, but strong support remained around 80500. Then, driven by short covering, the price rebounded back near 81500, and the market began to consolidate around 81000. Notably, for several weeks there has been a phenomenon on the contract side where coin-margined funds consistently maintain a high long exposure, playing a significant role in both driving and absorbing moves, while USDT-margined funds are more emotional, with leverage-driven pushes and liquidations being more prominent. However, the large downward moves on the contract side were all initiated by coin-margined funds opening short positions aggressively, while USDT-margined funds only partially cooperated in the sell-off but were overall on the liquidation side. Although the price has recently shown a devastating, unstoppable downward momentum, the underlying capital structure has not displayed a clear short structure. In fact, when the price reached the 80000 level for the third time, shorts faced a more complicated situation than longs. Therefore, I have covered all my short positions because the current situation does not support my judgment on the market's decision at the 80000 level—whether it will quickly drop to complete liquidity hunting and then rapidly rebound to start a new upward cycle, or whether shorts will aggressively open new positions at the low to continue the downtrend. We must wait for the market to provide an answer $ETH $BTC single-day net outflow of 31.44 million, BlackRock and Fidelity concentrated selling.
Just slightly accumulated the previous day, decisively took profits and exited when CPI negative news landed, institutions only made tentative layouts, risk control extremely strict.
In contrast, $ETH only slightly outflowed 51,900, almost zero volatility.
Price dropped to a low of 2315, institutions neither bottom-fished nor cut losses, observing the direction throughout.
$SOL trend is more representative, small outflows for eight consecutive days, today's selling pressure is almost exhausted.
Currently, the main force driving the dump is no longer ETF institutions, but a full-scale long liquidation within the market.
The core issue in the market now: long sentiment has not been cleared.
SOL long-short ratio remains as high as 2.68, a large number of long positions have not stopped losses, the chain liquidation scenario is not yet over.
The current decline is purely a long-killing emotional sell-off, not institutional escape.
I have always maintained an empty position and am watching; in chaotic times, do not speak of bottoms.
I will not lightly enter the market to speculate until contract liquidations are completely finished, selling pressure fully exhausted, and the market stabilizes.$BTC is approaching $84K again, but I think the macro picture is more telling than the bounce.
Bitcoin gained 1.5% after Fed’s John Williams suggested no further rate hikes may be needed in 2027.
The recovery spread across markets:
- $ZEC: +7%
- $SOL and $DOGE: +2.5%
- $ETH: +2%
- Asian equities also rebounded
But Williams hasn’t ruled out another hike this year.
And with Brent crude near $106, inflation risks are still very much alive.
#TeslaQ3ProfitAndMargingThe entire market is panicking to find the bottom, but institutions remain calm and show no signs of panic throughout.
Yesterday's ETF fund data revealed the most authentic market truth at present.
$BTC saw a net outflow of 31.44 million in a single day, with BlackRock and Fidelity concentrating their sell-offs.
After a slight accumulation the previous day, they decisively took profits and exited once the CPI negative news landed; institutions are only making tentative layouts with extremely strict risk control.
In contrast, $ETH had only a slight outflow of 51,900, with almost zero volatility.
The price was hammered down to a low of 2315; institutions neither bottom-fished nor cut losses, instead observing the market direction throughout.
$SOL's trend is even more representative, with small outflows for eight consecutive days and selling pressure nearly exhausted today.
The current main force behind the price dump is no longer ETF institutions but a full-scale long position stampede within the market.
The core issue in the market now: bullish sentiment has not been cleared.
The long-short ratio of SOL remains as high as 2.68, with a large number of long positions not stopped out; the chain liquidation phase is not yet over.
The current decline is purely an emotional sell-off caused by longs killing longs, not institutional flight.
I have consistently maintained an empty position and am watching; in chaotic times, one does not speak of bottoms.
I will not lightly enter the market to speculate until contract liquidations are completely finished, selling pressure is fully exhausted, and the market stabilizes.
#US CPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, and tonight PPI faces another test Last night, CPI exceeded expectations, and BTC dropped from 84,000 to 80,168. I checked the on-chain data; Strive bought $235 million worth during the crash, acquiring 2,822 BTC, pushing their total holdings to a new high. BlackRock's Q3 digital asset scale reached 79.6 billion, up 63% quarter-over-quarter. Now, looking at retail investors: $1.716 billion liquidated in 24 hours, 85% of which were long positions, with $525 million liquidated in just the last hour. Once the 81,500 ETF cost line breaks, panic selling erupts, with everyone rushing to cut losses. On one side, institutions are scooping up hundreds of millions during the crash; on the other, retail investors are cutting losses below their cost lines. At the same price, some are buying, some are selling—the difference lies in who is looking at next month and who is looking at next year. You might say, "Institutions have more money and aren't afraid of drops." But Strive's $235 million purchase is real money, not paper. They dare to buy at 80,000 because they've done the math—this price is cheap relative to next year's halving cycle and ETF inflows. You're selling at 81,500 because you only see the candlestick falling and don't see institutions buying. ahr999 is now at 0.5165, still a bit away from the bottom-fishing range (below 0.45). Historically, every time it reached this position, a good market followed. But the premise is you have bullets left—not shooting all your bullets at 81,500.$SOXL
Current price 100.89, 24h -19.38%
The semiconductor sector took a heavy hit, losing 20% in one day.
The 48-hour chart clearly shows:
High point 130.86 (10-14 08:00) steadily dropping to 99.19 (just now),
A 24.2% cut in the range, now only 1.69% above the floor.
Rebound? Only a 5.37% correction, not really a recovery.
The sell-off on the 1H candle had a volume of 34.54 million U,
which is 2.81 times the previous candle.
This scale is not profit-taking, it's a panic exit.
MA20 is at 105.70, price is 4.77% below it—
A clear bearish setup, any rebound is just an opportunity to get on board.
I’m not chasing, just waiting for two triggers:
① If the 1H rebound fails to close above 105.70 (MA20)
→ Short, stop loss at 108, target 99.19
R:R 2.8 : 1
② If the 1H close breaks below 99.19 directly
→ Follow the trend short, stop loss at 102.5, target 92
R:R 2.2 : 1
Invalidation level:
If the 1H closes back above 105.70 and the next candle holds,
both conditions invalidate the setup, switch to sideways view.
Currently too close to the floor, don’t rush either trigger.
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)Folks, at 8:30 PM tonight, a bunch of macro data will be released again. This is another big test after the CPI.
Look at this data chart, all key points.
First, September retail sales month-over-month. Previous value was 1.10%, expected to drop directly to 0.30%. Consumption is set to cool down significantly. If it really drops this much, it means American consumers really have no money to spend, which is good for inflation but will also trigger panic about economic cooling.
Second, September PPI year-over-year previous value was 5.40%, expected to drop to 5.3%, but the month-over-month rate is expected to rise to 0.50%. Inflation stickiness remains; pressure on the production side is not fully relieved.
Third, initial jobless claims are expected at 200,000, slightly up from the previous value. Cooling in the job market is a consensus.
Adding the New York Fed manufacturing index expected to rebound, overall it looks like the economy is cooling down, but inflation is not dead yet.
Yesterday, CPI surged to 3.7%, higher than expected, which already pushed US Treasury yields and rate hike expectations up, causing high-level stocks like SanDisk and Micron to be collectively hammered. If tonight’s data shows consumption and employment weakening significantly, then the "weak economy" logic will outweigh "high inflation," easing rate hike pressure and allowing Bitcoin to catch a breather. If retail sales and PPI both rebound beyond expectations, then trouble arises; stagflation panic will directly drag Bitcoin down hard.
In terms of trading, before 8:30 PM tonight, don’t take heavy positions or bet on a one-sided move. Hold steady with low-position chips if you have them; if you’re empty-handed, wait for the data to land and see the market’s first reaction before deciding. SanDisk’s high-level pullback isn’t over yet, Bitcoin is also grinding near 83,000, and with macro uncertainty, no one should get ahead of themselves.As soon as the CPI was released, the market immediately turned sour. Expected 3.6, actual 3.7, no cut but a rise instead, US stocks dropped 1.8 points, the night session fell another 1 point, Korean stocks crashed during the day, Hynix, SanDisk, Micron all plunged, and crypto also took a hit. The only thing still stable is gold, supported by central bank buying worldwide, making it indeed hard to fall in the short term.
What really makes the market nervous is not the data itself, but the renewed expectations of rate hikes. The probability of a rate hike in October surged from 19% to 27% in one day. As long as this number keeps rising, a sword will always hang over risk assets.
My view: a drop is not entirely bad. Semiconductors fall first, bubbles get squeezed first, risks are released in advance; Bitcoin has already risen through two waves, a pullback is actually healthier. As long as the probability of a rate hike before the FOMC at the end of the month does not exceed 50% and oil prices can retreat, this adjustment looks more like a third chance to get in rather than a turn downward.
$BTC
#CPI#TSMCQ3RecordProfit Second, full-year guidance. Morgan Stanley expects an upgrade from "over 40%" to mid-40%, with Q4 USD revenue up 11% quarter-on-quarter. Whether AI orders show marginal weakening will be revealed in the earnings call.📊 CPI data is a bit hot, the probability of a rate hike in October has risen from 18% to 29%, $BTC is still tugging around $81,000, the market is a bit chaotic. RSI is only 36.6, sentiment is weak. The $82,883 level above has been tested 15 times, held 6 times, broken 7 times, and no reaction 2 times; this resistance is also visible on the 1-hour chart, and it's the level I'm watching. The support below at $80,478 has been tested 5 times, held 4 times, broken once, just falling within the densely stacked stop-loss area between $79,832–$80,478. Breaking below here is likely to trigger a wick sweep, which is a liquidity sweep, not accumulation. Open interest rose 3.2% in 24 hours, but the price dropped 0.8%, indicating shorts are adding positions, not taking profits. If it stands above $82,883, this is invalidated, so the position is cautious. Do you think this wave will first sweep the shorts or directly break down? #OKXTraderVoices Ultimately, only looking at this quarter's financial report: I judge that Tesla's Q3 2026 financial report is more likely to be below market expectations.
Below expectations: 60%
Meet expectations: 25%
Above expectations: 15%
Referring to the latest forecasts, the market consensus GAAP EPS is about $0.43–$0.45, with revenue around $27.79 billion–$27.9 billion. Analysts have recently been continuously lowering profit expectations, and Zacks' model does not support a clear judgment of earnings beating expectations.
Zacks
+2
The two numbers I focus on most are: whether EPS is below $0.43, and whether the automotive gross margin is below about 17.3%. If both weaken simultaneously, I will be more confident in judging the financial report as below expectations. Ultimately, only looking at this quarter's financial report: I judge that Tesla's Q3 2026 financial report is more likely to be below market expectations. 📊 Netflix Earnings Preview: Revenue Isn't the Focus, Profit Margin Is the Key!
The market expects $NFLX Q3 revenue to grow about 12% year-over-year, but the real focus is on the profit margin guidance: 33.2%, higher than last year's 28.2%.
This indicates Netflix is shifting from simply competing for subscribers to improving monetization efficiency per user.
⚠️ However, the higher the expectations, the harder it is to beat them!
📉 Profit margins falling short of expectations and unclear advertising business guidance could trigger after-hours sell-offs.
📈 If ad revenue accelerates and profit margins remain solid, the market has reason to stay bullish.
Tech stock sentiment is fragile; good earnings don’t guarantee stock price gains. Don’t blindly bet on direction—wait for the data to land before judging!
#Netflix #NFLX #USStocks #EarningsAnalysis #DailyOrbit📊 Netflix's advertising business: what really matters is not layoffs, but monetization capability!
Whether $NFLX's advertising business can become a second growth curve depends on these 5 key dimensions:
✅ User side: ad package penetration rate, monthly active users, churn rate
💰 Revenue side: advertising ARPU, CPM, inventory sell-through rate, revenue growth rate
🤖 Product side: ad pause, live sports, AI advertising tools
🌐 Channel side: DSP integration, programmatic trading, ad pre-sales
⚠️ Risk side: ad budget contraction, excessive frequency, CTV competition
Key logic: user growth is just the foundation; advertising monetization efficiency determines the long-term potential of the business.
Next, focus on whether ad revenue can accelerate and if growth can convert into profit.📈
⚠️ For information organization only, not investment advice.
#Netflix #NFLX #USStockAnalysis #DailyOrbit #South Korean stocks fell nearly 8% intraday, global tech stocks collectively under pressure. The South Korean KOSPI dropped nearly 8% at its lowest point intraday, triggering the circuit breaker mechanism. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics led the decline, becoming the hardest hit in this round of global tech stock adjustments.
The decline is due to multiple negative factors resonating: First, the previous US CPI exceeded expectations, leading the market to raise expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates or even raise them further, suppressing valuations of high-valued tech assets; Second, the market continues to debate the sustainability of AI capital expenditures, with cautious remarks from executives at Broadcom and Intel, causing funds to start questioning the long-term demand for HBM and memory chips; Third, ChangXin's 4F² DRAM technology breakthrough.
It is important to distinguish: this is a repricing of high AI growth expectations, not a direct collapse of industry fundamentals. HBM long-term contract orders remain full in the short term. The drop is more about a correction after previous large gains and high valuations. The South Korean stock market has a special structure with a very high semiconductor weighting, so its volatility is significantly greater than other indices. Panic sentiment spreads through Asia-Pacific, dragging down US semiconductor futures and Nasdaq futures simultaneously, forming a global tech chain linked sell-off.
Transmission to the crypto market: this signals a cooling of risk appetite. Weakness in the Nasdaq and computing power sectors easily pressures high-beta assets like BTC and ETH, amplifying short-term volatility. But this is emotional contagion, not driven by crypto fundamentals. It depends on whether the Nasdaq can stabilize afterward; if panic continues to spread, crypto is likely to follow the decline; if it is just short-term emotional venting, after digestion it will return to macro data fundamentals. $BTC $ETH $SNDK AAVE and ETH both plummeted, my short positions finally arrived!
$AAVE short entered at 163.71, current price 149, floating profit 448%! $ETH short is even more outrageous, floating profit 1262%! This drop has broken below MA5, MA10, and the Bollinger Bands middle line on the daily chart, the bearish trend is fully established.
But don't get carried away. ETH margin is only 0.02U left, this kind of "thin position" is most afraid of a spike rebound, even if it's just a technical correction, it could cause an instant liquidation. AAVE's RSI is also close to oversold, continuing to chase shorts has very low cost-effectiveness.
My plan: take half profit on AAVE, set trailing stop loss on the rest; close ETH fully at market price to lock in gains. With high leverage, profits belong to the market, principal is your own. If you've caught this wave, don't be greedy for the last bite.
#US CPI unexpectedly rises to 3.7%, PPI faces another test tonight
#TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit record high
#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus $MU
Current price 876.95, 24h -7.36%
This cold splash is quite heavy.
Opened at 946.6, dropped to 865.02 in one day,
48-hour range hit a new low directly,
From the high of 967.98, that's a -10.6% drop.
The current position is awkward:
Only 1.36% above the floor at 865.02,
Still 1.7% below MA20 (891.87).
Unable to break above the moving average, today's candle can only be considered a breather after a sharp drop.
The 1H volume on the dump candle was 7.62 million U,
1.6 times the previous candle—sellers are serious.
I set the conditions strictly:
① If 1H rebounds but fails to hold above 891.87 (MA20)
→ Short, stop loss at 900, target 865.02
R:R 3.3 : 1
② If 1H closes above 891.87 and the next candle does not fall back
→ Cancel ①, switch to recovery mode, first target 952
Invalidation level is clear:
If 1H close falls below 865.02, both conditions are invalidated and reset.
None of these have triggered yet, so I remain on standby.
(Not investment advice, trade at your own risk)There's nothing much left to say; just waiting for oil prices to take off. Sharing my own analysis: this should be the last and most intense wave driven by geopolitics. Brent crude could reach 130 to 150 and sustain a high-level oscillation for a period. The 10-year US Treasury yield will approach or exceed 6%. Then, under pressure, there should be a temporary easing, with US Treasuries plummeting and oil prices entering a deep correction. Brent might fall to 70 to 80, possibly breaking below 70 intraday. When oil prices fall, gold, silver, and especially US stocks are likely to hit new highs, but this will be a false prosperity. Subsequently, oil prices will no longer be driven by geopolitics but will switch to supply and demand factors. The trigger point should be US-Iran talks falling short of expectations; secondly, even if an agreement is signed, it can be torn up at any time. Currently, global crude oil inventories have already fallen below the minimum operational threshold. This process should take about half a year, after which oil prices will enter a true main rise above 200. #US CPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, and tonight PPI faces another test