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#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Also:
Not easy to compete with several mega-caps that have all decided to prioritize their streaming libraries, don't need to make much $ on those libraries & have the balance sheets to outspend $NFLX by a wide margin.
My hot take is that I think this iconic company's best days are behind it.
#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins TSMC Q3 exploded again, with a net profit of 763 billion New Taiwan Dollars, a year-on-year surge of 68.7%, a historic high. But the crypto world hasn't gained a single cent from it. $BTC 82,430, $ETH 2,400, $ZEC 1,147, all stuck in place.
I think the most painful thing for the crypto world about TSMC's huge profits is not that the "positive news hasn't been transmitted," but that even the "AI narrative soup" is almost out of reach.
TSMC's HPC (High-Performance Computing) now accounts for 68% of revenue, with 3nm and 5nm processes consuming 70% of advanced process capacity. AI giants are lining up to grab chips, but the crypto crowd can't even get in line.
Bitcoin has been hovering around 82,000 for a week, funding rate +0.0029%, both bulls and bears are too lazy to move. Like a transfer student forgotten by the homeroom teacher, making no mistakes but also not getting any gold stars.
Ethereum's RSI is neutral. I hold no position, but watching SOL and Dogecoin bouncing around nearby, ETH looks like a well-behaved kid, all the excitement belongs to others.
ZEC saw $1.89 million in short positions explode in 24 hours. Grayscale ETF quietly surpassed $1 billion in size, NU7 upgrade countdown. This guy is having a private feast in the corner, basically decoupled from the market.
I think the best thing to do now is to hold back. TSMC's capital expenditure is smashed to $60-64 billion, all the money going into AI infrastructure, not crypto. Wait for this AI spending wave to pass, then see where the water level rises. #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
@你的爱播Misa @bilibili交易姬 那么SNDK如果让我接的话，可能在1000-1100会更让我喜欢。而且这一波修复感觉能去1400-1450就撑死了。 $SNDK 闪迪｜1372这个位置已经在盘前被刺破，但我的判断标准只看日线收盘形态，收盘没能重新站上，后续目标看向1157。
前一次价格距离目标还差28点，我当时判定不算有效触及；今天盘前冲高至1341后，顺利摸到了1372。不过交易纪律不会松动：盘内短暂击穿不算有效破位，必须等日线收线，如果收盘站不回1372，才确认支撑失效。
盘面信号已经很明朗，前一日尝试站上1420，始终无法重回1500上方，开盘后继续走弱。这一轮存储板块的下行，并不是短期洗盘，而是趋势性的回落行情。
1372作为日线级别的核心支撑，如今盘前已经下探刺破，这个阶段我不会盲目进场抄底。在明确的止跌信号出现之前，每一轮反弹优先当成减亏机会，不要当成趋势反转。
若日线收盘收回1372：定义为超跌反弹行情，第一处压力看1420，更强阻力在1500，不能站稳1500，大方向依旧偏空。
若日线收盘确认跌破1372：下方下一目标看1157，从1341到1157还有不小的下行空间。
趋势没有出现扭转信号不去主观猜底部。行情想要真正转强，前提是先收复1372之后再突破1500，全程程下跌趋势$SNDK #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus Netflix Q3 earnings report will be released after market close on October 20.
The company's baseline: revenue of 12.86 billion, operating profit margin of 33.2%.
Advertising business is a highlight, but only a patch, unlikely to reverse the overall growth slowdown.
Currently, 69% of the market predicts it will exceed expectations; optimism is already maxed out.
Meeting expectations ≠ exceeding expectations; to get a Yes, membership or advertising business must significantly surpass market imagination.
On the profit and loss ratio, No has the advantage.
⚠️Personal observation, not trading advice #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight; earnings report might not look very good#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins Not easy to compete with several mega-caps that have all decided to prioritize their streaming libraries, don't need to make much $ on those libraries & have the balance sheets to outspend $NFLX by a wide margin.
My hot take is that I think this iconic company's best days are behind the.The impact of the CPI has just been digested, and the PPI data has once again exceeded expectations⚡
In the afternoon, $ETH slowly recovered from the low of 2315, rebounding above 2400. I originally planned to wait for the price to stall in the 2400-2450 range before entering a second short position. Unexpectedly, once the PPI data was released in the evening, this brief rebound was immediately interrupted.
This time the data clearly exceeded market expectations: the PPI annual rate reached 6.3%, while the market had only expected 5.3%, marking a nearly five-month high; the monthly rate recorded 1.3%, sharply higher than the 0.5% forecast, and retail data at 0.8% also beat expectations.
CPI and PPI have consecutively surprised on the upside, and since PPI represents upstream production costs, its strength means inflationary pressure will continue to transmit downward, making short-term inflation hard to ease. Meanwhile, strong retail data indicates economic resilience remains, and the Federal Reserve has no sufficient reason to pivot to easing. This is the core logic behind my continued bearish outlook.
On the $BTC side, the supports at 81000 and 80000 are precarious. The afternoon rebound of ETH, under the pressure of heavy data, looks more like an opportunity for bears to enter. In the past 24 hours, 185,000 people have been liquidated, with liquidation amounts totaling 980 million USD, the vast majority being long orders.
The first short position has already secured a profit of 176 points. Next, I will continue to wait for rebound opportunities; as long as the upward momentum is weak, the second short position will follow accordingly.
#InflationDataSurprisesContinue,MarketPressureTestsSupport
$ETH $BTC $OKB 之前说白了有发布会溢价。以为 perps有什么大利好消耗okb，最后发现一点关系没有，直接大利空。#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点
Only a few days remain until streaming giant Netflix announces its Q3 earnings—on October 20 after the US market closes, the answer will be revealed.
📊 First, let's look at the company's "reference answers":
▪️ Revenue forecast: about $12.86 billion, up approximately 12% year-over-year
▪️ Operating margin: 33.2%, compared to just 28.2% in the same period last year
🔍 But what the market is really watching are these two questions:
1️⃣ Is growth really about to "slow down"?
A 12% growth rate is no longer impressive for Netflix. With user growth gradually peaking and multiple price hikes, how long can price increases continue to support growth? This is the biggest market concern.
2️⃣ Can the advertising business become the "second curve"?
This is the biggest highlight of this earnings report! How many subscribers are on ad-supported plans? How much does advertising revenue contribute? Has ARPU (average revenue per user) truly been boosted? Once these "hard data" are disclosed, they will directly determine whether Netflix's future growth story holds up.
💡 What’s the outlook?
On paper, revenue is steady and profit margins hit new highs—the data looks great. But the key question is whether the 33.2% high profit margin is "saved" or "earned"? If it comes from cutting content investment, then Q4 guidance may disappoint investors.
Therefore, the core of this earnings report is not "whether they made money," but rather—does the advertising business really work? $CORE ✅Top 5 Core Bearish Reasons from Overseas Traders, X (Twitter), and Overseas Research Reports 1. Fundamental Flaw in Token Emission Model (Most Commonly Mentioned Overseas) Overseas users highly value tokenomics: CORE’s BTC staking system continuously issues new CORE tokens as rewards for every BTC staked, flooding the circulating market with new tokens. In contrast to STX: STX’s bonding mechanism involves BTC coming in, locking STX, and reducing circulation. Overseas community conclusion: CORE’s token model is inflation-driven; the larger the BTCFi business, the greater the selling pressure on CORE. Supply and demand are naturally inverse, putting long-term price support under pressure. 2. Large Unlocks + Continuous Release of Early Holdings CORE’s total supply is 2.1 billion, with a long unlocking period and token rewards released continuously over 81 years. Overseas on-chain data enthusiasts have been monitoring long-term: validator rewards, early investors, and team shares are continuously unlocking and flowing out; Moreover, in September, a validator exploit allowed some to claim excess CORE rewards. Although the project team urgently fixed it, overseas traders remain seriously concerned: the token issuance rules have vulnerabilities, posing risks of unexpected over-issuance and damaging trust. 3. Liquidity Continues to Shrink, Multiple Exchanges Delisting Overseas community statistics: many small and medium exchanges have already delisted CORE spot trading; Order book depth is thinning, slippage is huge, and trading volume in the last two days has shrunk directly to less than $1 million. Overseas traders’ view: liquidity is the foundation of the coin price, and buy-side support is increasinglyNot chasing shorts near 80,000 is San Ma Ge's most firm judgment in this situation; but being bullish does not mean all long positions should be stubbornly held. @SanMaGeBenGe regards the BTC 80,000 level as important support, while repeatedly advising those with overly heavy positions and liquidation levels too close to use the rebound to exit most of their positions first. Confidence in direction cannot replace the account's ability to withstand drawdowns.
First, look at $BTC. He believes that even if the 80,000 level is briefly broken, it may only be a stop-loss sweep followed by a recovery, so one should not chase shorts just because the round number is breached. This is his starting point for going long that night, not a guarantee that 80,000 will never be broken. During intraday price tests around this area, he still treated it as a support zone and gave a long attempt near 80,188; another lower pending order did not execute precisely, so it cannot be claimed as filled just because it was touched.
The change in this situation lies in how to handle the rebound once it appears. Earlier, he mentioned exiting near 81,200 first, then observing turnover; later, as the rebound developed, he treated the 82,000 to 82,588 range as a zone for partial profit-taking and pressure observation, and set the higher 84,000 level as a subsequent focus. Although the bullish direction remains the same, the intraday execution is not a static set of orders from start to finish.
Especially for those who already have long positions and continue to add at low levels, he repeatedly requested reducing by half first. For accounts still heavily positioned near cost, the reduction requirement was further raised to over 70%. The reason is straightforward: during the same volatility, light positions can wait for structure, but heavy positions may hit liquidation before the judgment is realized.$BTC just lost $966M in leveraged longs but the bigger signal is who isn’t selling September PPI jumped 1.3% vs 0.6% expected, while CPI hit 3.7% YoY raising Fed rate-hike concerns BTC dipped to $80.2K as spot ETFs saw $261M in outflows and risk-off sentiment intensified Meanwhile whales are buying while retail sells, and long-term holder realized losses have fallen 85% My view: Not capitulation yet, but risk remains high Below $80K $78K, then $75K Holding $80K could help absorb the inflation The Fed's script might be torn up.
At the June meeting, 18 members submitted their interest rate expectations, but the chair did not. His comment was that his colleagues' forecasts were written in pencil, with a big eraser.
The Communications Reform Working Group is already reviewing whether forward guidance, the dot plot, and minutes should remain. It's not about immediate abolition, but first assessing if they are worth keeping.
Without official guidance, the market can only focus on CPI, nonfarm payrolls, U.S. Treasuries, and the dollar; data will speak, and no one will leak hints in advance. Pricing for $BTC $ETH will become more fragmented and volatile.Hello brothers and sisters
Brothers! The capital flow direction has turned!
Latest data: On Tuesday, Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow was $175.6 million, hitting the highest single-day level since October 2; Ethereum spot ETF also had a net inflow of $24.8 million, temporarily ending a 10-day streak of net outflows.
Funds were still withdrawing the day before, but today there is capital replenishment, switching speed is very fast. What’s more worth noting is that despite hotter-than-expected CPI data and disrupted rate cut expectations, BTC was not broken down, indicating support at the lower end.
My judgment: Short-term sentiment is recovering, but a single day of inflow cannot yet be considered a trend. The focus next is on three points: first, whether net inflows can continue; second, whether trading volume expands simultaneously; third, whether macro pressure will return. If inflows continue for two or three days, confidence will be more solid; if it’s just a pulse, the market may still fluctuate.
Don’t rush, wait for confirmation. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#US September CPI year-on-year rose to 3.7%, core inflation exceeded expectations #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeded expectations, profits hit a record high #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？ Recently, I came across a set of BTC historical data that I found quite interesting. Someone noticed that after the past several U.S. midterm elections, Bitcoin has experienced a phase low for a period of time. 📊 According to historical statistics: 🔹 2014: About 71 days after the midterm election, BTC hit a phase low. 🔹 2018: About 39 days after the midterm election, BTC hit a phase low. 🔹 2022: About 13 days after the midterm election, BTC hit a phase low. From 71 days to 39 days, then to 13 days, the time seems to be getting shorter. Seeing this, many might wonder: Could BTC also bottom out quickly after the 2026 midterm election? 🤔 Honestly, this pattern is indeed interesting, but I think it can't be directly applied. First, just because a similar trend appeared three times in history doesn't mean it will repeat the fourth time. The market environments in 2014, 2018, and 2022 were not the same. The Federal Reserve policies, global liquidity, institutional participation levels, and even BTC's own market size have all changed significantly. More importantly, the way historical lows are selected also affects the statistical results. 📉 Secondly, I pay more attention to the capital changes when BTC declines. Here is an indicator worth observing: Open Interest (OI). If BTC falls and OI significantly decreases, it may indicate some leveraged positions are exiting. But if the price keeps falling and OI increases instead, further judgment is needed to determine if new short capital is entering. Of course, based on OPolygon已完成收购Coinme，把美国美元进出通道接入自己的支付服务。10月14日官方公告称，服务覆盖48州，由37张州级汇款牌照及11州适用豁免组成，不是拿到48张牌照。
最先受益的是支付公司和跨国发薪企业。过去要分别接银行入金、链上转账和本地货币出金，现在可通过一套服务衔接，减少供应商之间的交接。首批客户包括Tazapay、Mesh、Toku和Kira。
以Toku为例，员工收到稳定币后，可在同一发薪流程里存入钱包、兑换本地货币。少切换几家服务商，有机会减少等待和操作成本；实际省多少，还要看收费、到账速度与当地开放范围。
这对Polygon支付业务采用偏正面，但公告未披露新增交易量或POL购买安排。支付业务受监管，也不是POL代币获得监管背书。后续应看真实支付规模，以及有多少使用转化为Polygon链上的费用需求。
来源及配图：Polygon官网10/14收购完成公告，10/16复核。下方POL为Polygon代币现货行情。$POL #特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点 Recently, Tesla has once again become the focus of market attention. The third quarter vehicle delivery performance exceeded market expectations, and many people are starting to look forward to the upcoming earnings report bringing surprises. But honestly, I think that good delivery numbers don’t necessarily mean the earnings report will be impressive. 🤔 Why do I say that? Because the number of cars sold and the actual money earned are two completely different things. 📊 Let’s start with the automotive business. Tesla can stimulate sales through price cuts and promotions, but if the profit per vehicle decreases, even if deliveries exceed expectations, overall profits may not grow accordingly. What I’m most concerned about this time is whether the automotive business gross margin can improve. After all, what the market wants to see now is not just how many cars Tesla can sell, but how much money it can make. 💰 Next, let’s look at the energy business. Compared to electric vehicles, the energy storage business is also a growth area worth watching for Tesla. If energy storage revenue and profits continue to improve, it could provide new growth support for the company. But how much it will contribute specifically still needs to wait for the official earnings report. 🤖 Finally, there’s Robotaxi and autonomous driving. This area indeed has room for imagination and is an important reason why the market continues to focus on Tesla. However, one issue cannot be ignored: no matter how much potential future business has, it still needs to prove its value through actual commercialization progress. There may still be a long way to go between technological advancement, commercialization scale, and actually generating profits. 💡 My view: This Tesla earnings report, exceeding delivery expectations is just the first step. The real market decider#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 🌑 Late Night Recap: Double inflation data dropped, BTC surprisingly turned green, OKB fell from 124 to 117, ZEC playing dead at 1144
$BTC 82169, up 0.64 points 📈
CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, it should have crashed according to the script, but BTC bounced back from 81888 to 82169 and turned green. Yesterday, over 300 million was liquidated across the network, bulls were shaken out, which actually eased selling pressure. ETF had the largest net outflow in three and a half months last week, but there is real buying support below 81000. Is the bad news all priced in? Or is this a pullback before further decline?
$OKB 117.88, down 4.15 points 🔴
Last night, OKB rose 3 points against the trend to 124 on CPI news, but today it gave all back and dropped 4 points. Yesterday it was called a safe haven, but today it couldn’t hold that status. The 120 whole number support broke, platform tokens are too tightly linked to the market.
$ZEC 1144.68, up 0.09 points 🔒
Privacy coin barely moved under the double inflation data, holding steady at 1144. It fell from 1223 to 1159 a few days ago and is now consolidating at the bottom.
$BICO 0.01703, up 1.31 points 📈
The account abstraction sector had a small rebound, bouncing from 0.0169 to 0.017. No independent news, just following BTC’s bounce.
$RE 0.41571, down 0.54 points 😴
Small RWA continues to be ignored, holding flat at 0.415.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
#US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 最近看到一位投资者分享自己的奈飞（Netflix）持仓，说实话，还挺有意思的。 距离10月20日的第三季度财报越来越近，市场正在讨论奈飞能不能再次交出一份超预期的成绩单。 但有些投资者已经开始担心了。 营收增长是一回事，市场愿不愿意继续给高估值，又是另一回事。 🤔 📊 先看看市场关注的数据。 根据此前披露的业绩指引，奈飞第三季度预计： 🔹 营收约128.6亿美元，同比增长约12%。 🔹 营业利润率预计达到33.2%。 🔹 去年同期营业利润率为28.2%。 乍一看，这份预期并不差。 但问题在于，市场对奈飞的要求可能已经不只是维持增长。 大家更想知道：广告业务能不能真正接棒，成为新的增长动力？ 💰 为什么广告业务这么重要？ 奈飞传统的订阅业务已经相对成熟，继续依赖新增付费用户实现高速增长，难度可能越来越大。 而广告套餐提供了另一种商业模式。 用户支付相对较低的订阅费用，平台再通过广告获得收入。 如果这套模式能够持续扩大规模，奈飞就有机会提高单个用户带来的综合收入。 但如果广告收入增长不及预期，市场可能重新评估公司的未来增长空间。 📉 再说The most feared scenario has flipped the page: Core CPI is not cooling down 😬
Overall 3.7% is not too surprising; the high oil prices had already been a warning. But the core year-on-year at 2.6% is hotter than the expected 2.5%, and the previous 2.4%. Even after excluding oil and food, it still pushes upward, indicating cost pressures have spread from energy to services and goods. Airfare, used cars, medical care, and clothing are all emerging. ✈️👕
Airfare is especially critical: jet fuel prices have risen for months and have finally passed through to ticket prices, meaning inflation is starting to "permeate." The market immediately repriced: the bet on a rate hike by the end of the month rose from 22% to 44%. The 10-year US Treasury yield broke above 5.3% again, the dollar is relatively strong, gold, silver, and US stock futures weakened. Bitcoin surged to 83.8k then dropped to 81k; 84k remains a tough resistance. 📉
Looking ahead, two key events: the Federal Reserve decision on October 28 and the October CPI release in November. If the core remains hot, money will tighten further, and risk appetite will be harder to lift. In the short term, the upper cap for Bitcoin is 84k, and the floor is 80.5k. 🧱The Federal Reserve is quietly changing the rules.
Chairman Powell advocates weakening or even abandoning the dot plot, stating that it will no longer hint at the interest rate path. In September, 16 members already expect at least one more rate hike within the year, and internal opinions are no longer unified.
Once this happens, the market will have to guess on its own, with volatility spreading from the FOMC meeting day to every CPI and non-farm payroll release—the US Treasury MOVE index has risen to 80.6, more than 20% higher than the June low.
The biggest impact is still on the pricing logic of risk assets. $BTC and $ETH are most sensitive to interest rates, and volatility will only be amplified. Does this make the market more rational, or more stimulated?#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 Sigh, placing a $CRCL order at 75 is basically impossible to fill
This price is too extreme
Tonight it quickly jumped to 83
Some are still waiting for it to return to 60
That's impossible
When others ask me, I always say
A price starting with seven is already very good
78, 77, 76 are all fine
I placed an order at 75 myself
But it didn't get filled…….10月15日晚間行情分析～比特币和以太坊在近期大跌后出现强劲反弹，是宏观预期修正、资金面结构性支撑、以及盘面技术性轧空三重因素叠加的结果。同步反弹，但两者反弹的驱动逻辑各有侧重。
📉 大跌的导火索
美国9月CPI同比上涨3.7%，高于预期的3.6%和8月的3.4%，核心CPI同样超预期。数据公布后，市场对美联储10月加息的押注从22.1%一度飙升至53.7%，美债收益率触及24年高点，全球风险资产集体承压。加密市场24小时内超17.5万人爆仓，爆仓总金额达9.32亿美元，其中多单占比高达91.8%。比特币一度跌至8.1万美元附近，以太坊跌破2,400美元。
🔄 反弹的驱动力
1️⃣ 宏观预期快速修正：加息恐慌被重新定价
CPI引发的加息恐慌并未持续太久。美联储官员随后释放了对进一步加息保持审慎的信号。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯明确表示"明年不需要进一步加息"，预测市场上10月按兵不动的概率从50%迅速回升至79%。利率预期的逆转直接缓解了美元流动性收紧的压力，成为风险资产反弹的核心宏观催化剂。
2️⃣ 资金面：ETF流出与大户增持形成"多空对冲"Big Brother Maji's move this time gave me goosebumps
Background first: In the past 4 months, he went from 56,000U to 12.25 million U, then lost back down to 21,800U. Others would have given up long ago, but not him. On the evening of October 15, he just transferred in 250,000 USDC as margin, and directly increased his 25x ETH long position to 3,100 coins, with a position value of 7.37 million U.
Now the total contract position is about 59.76 million U, split into three directions: short BTC, short HYPE, long ETH.
$BTC 40x short, opened at 84,070, floating profit about 220,000 U, but funding fees cost 56,600. Position is dominant, but with 40x leverage, a price bounce can wipe it out quickly, so don’t just look at the floating profit.
$ETH: 25x long, opened at 2370.67, liquidation price 2333.56. That sharp spike this morning—I suspect it was targeting his liquidation price, causing a direct liquidation! Unexpectedly, he just added another 250,000 USD margin to the long position! Gotta say: having unlimited bullets is really nice!
$HYPE is the harshest, 5x short, opened at 65.8, floating loss 4.21 million U, but funding fees collected 1.03 million. This fee helps ease costs a bit, but can’t withstand price volatility. Don’t think collecting fees means it’s stable. So this isn’t a full bearish stance, more like he’s diversifying directions among different coins.
Now it’s about whether BTC can stabilize, ETH can hold the 2333 liquidation level, and whether the HYPE short can hold up. You can watch smart money’s positions, but don’t copy blindly. Dollar Weakens, Why Is Crypto Still Stuck in the Mud?
Today, the dollar index slipped from its highs, and U.S. Treasury yields fell in tandem, yet the crypto market remains sluggish. On the surface, this seems contradictory, but in reality, funds are still digesting last night's CPI data.
First, a falling dollar ≠ inflation alarm lifted. September CPI year-over-year was 3.7%, core CPI 2.6%, both exceeding expectations. Although rate hike expectations have slightly cooled, there is still a distance before risk capital boldly returns.
Second, the decline in U.S. Treasury yields may be due to safe-haven buying. Reuters mentioned that inflation and AI debt concerns have boosted demand for U.S. Treasuries. This yield drop reflects risk aversion, not a revival of risk appetite.
Coin perspectives:
$BTC: Watch if it can hold near 80,000, then see if it can reclaim 82,000. Sustained rebounds matter more than a single bullish candle.
$ETH: Declined more than BTC; need to observe if it can actively recover ground when the market stabilizes, confirming the return of buying interest.
$SOL: Expecting the Alpenglow upgrade on October 21; see if it can outperform the market to test capital sentiment.
Conclusion: The dollar's decline only slightly eases external pressure; for crypto to truly recover, it needs sustained buying. I remain cautious and will first see who is genuinely backing the market with real money.
#US September CPI rises 3.7% YoY, core inflation exceeds expectations #TSMC Q3 net profit beats expectations, profits hit record high CPI negative news has landed, but selling pressure hasn't eased. September CPI year-on-year is 3.7%, core CPI 2.6%, both higher than expected, reigniting inflation concerns. The pressure to raise interest rates adds another layer of resistance to the crypto market rebound. I continue to be bearish in the short term.
$BTC ｜Institutions are buying, but selling hasn't stopped
Strive disclosed spending $235 million to buy 2,822 BTC, an increase which is positive. However, spot net outflow is $331 million, contract net outflow is $659 million, active selling still dominates, so I remain cautious about the rebound.
$ETH ｜Contracts warming up, spot not keeping pace
Spot net outflow is $421 million, contract net outflow is $1.018 billion. On the 13th, ETF net inflow was $24.8 million; on the 14th, partial temporary net outflow was $19.7 million. In the last 4 hours, contract net inflow was $123 million, but spot still outflowed $40.73 million, so the rebound lacks spot support.
$SOL ｜Some support, no chasing the rally for now
Spot net inflow is $9.84 million, contract net outflow is $7.73 million. Alpenglow plans to launch mainnet on the 21st, spot buying is relatively stronger, will watch if it can sustain.
I continue to lean bearish short term, mainly due to macro pressure and persistent spot selling pressure on BTC and ETH. If buying strength continues to improve, I will adjust my view and not stubbornly hold shorts. #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be more rate hikes this year? #TSMC Q3 net profit beats expectations, profits hit record highs #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus $SNDK This wave of short positions is stuffed full, with a 1378% floating profit behind a 75x tightrope walk. On the macro side, US Treasury yields are soaring, crypto ETFs see daily net outflows, the major market is struggling, and small coins have no chance. Once the news of Changxin G5 mass production came out, the logic of overseas storage monopoly began to shake, SanDisk dropped sharply from a high position, and this on-chain target keeps sliding down uncontrollably.
#TSMCQ3RecordProfit PPI went crazy tonight, but the real worry is tomorrow
As soon as 6.3% came out, BTC dropped from 83,000 to 79,725, ETH fell to 2,315, and many people in the group showed their liquidation orders. I didn’t make a move tonight, not because I’m bearish, but because with this kind of data-driven market, trading is basically a gamble on size; the rise or fall depends on a single needle, making both bulls and bears uncomfortable.
Now the market has slightly eased, $BTC is back to 82,300, $ETH 2,438, $SOL 105.9. But if you look closely, the funding rates are still positive, the long-short ratios are SOL 2.61, ETH 2.54, BTC 1.88, bulls are still crowded, and open interest hasn’t decreased, indicating leverage hasn’t been fully cleared. This rally looks more like short covering rather than a reversal.
Tomorrow, focus on two things: first, whether tech stocks can hold after the US stock market opens—today the Nasdaq fell more sharply than the Dow, money is flowing into traditional sectors; second, whether BTC can hold 80,000—if it holds, expect consolidation; if not, look at 78,000, ETH 2,300, SOL 100, all psychological levels.
One last word before sleep: the market is always there, but your capital is limited. Don’t burn all your bullets just because you’re itchy to trade. Wait for clear signals before entering.
Were you liquidated tonight?
#USCPIandPPIbeatexpectations, can there be another rate hike this year?
#BTCTreasuryPreferredStockfinancingheatsup
#ETHfluctuatesafterhitting$2500 #美国CPI与PPI双超预期，年内能否再加息？
PPI data also exceeded expectations, with the Producer Price Index rising, which may have some probability of transmitting to the consumer side 🤔 thereby causing inflation to rise further.
CPI also rose further, exceeding market expectations. It can be observed that $BTC and $ETH fell below 80000 and 2320 respectively at their lowest 🤔
However, both subsequently narrowed and did not continue to panic sell. If the downward trend continues to break, it may re-enter the previous "bear market" atmosphere.
The market expected two rate hikes within the year before the CPI release: one hike in September, which has been completed, and possibly another in December.
However, since both CPI and PPI exceeded expectations, a rate hike in October cannot be ruled out. With the midterm elections approaching, if liquidity tightens further in late October, then rising interest rates, increased borrowing costs, and shrinking stock assets may cause public dissatisfaction, potentially affecting the midterm elections 🤔
But rate hikes do not necessarily guarantee relief from supply-side shocks in the US or inflation caused by the "hot investment" in AI. Further observation is needed; please be cautious of risks!$BTC $ETH This wave of sell-off is fundamentally due to inflation exceeding expectations, the rate cut expectations being pushed back, and some even starting to speculate about possible further rate hikes. As US Treasury yields rise, all high-risk assets are being suppressed, with tech, storage, and the crypto sector all suffering together (╥﹏╥)
US stock storage stocks had surged too much earlier, AI benefits were already priced in advance, so now any slight miss in earnings reports gets punished. SanDisk has been stuck around 1500 for too long, with many taking profits; after Musk supported Micron, the market fears SanDisk raising prices and losing customers, so bulls naturally dare not push hard. In the short term, it looks more like repeated oscillations, with positive news causing a bounce, but macro pressure pulling it back (´･_･`)
The crypto sector is even more sensitive to interest rates. As long as high rate expectations persist, funds are unwilling to stay long; once a breakdown occurs, leverage cascades explode, and the drop speed is even fiercer than stocks. Most rebounds are just corrections, not the start of a new bull run (￣▽￣)
Next to watch: US Treasury yields and Federal Reserve officials' speeches. If yields don't come down, risk assets will struggle to have a big rally; only when inflation falls and rate cut bets return will funds truly come back.
Summary: Sentiment is weak, in a consolidation phase. Don't rush to bottom-fish; treat rebounds as just rebounds (・∀・)#US CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeded expectations, profits hit a record high In the past 24 hours, the entire market saw liquidations close to $980 million, with 185,000 people forced out, and longs accounted for over 90%. Ethereum fared even worse, with liquidation volume surpassing Bitcoin and a significantly larger drop. The shorts didn't enjoy the dip for long, as the rebound swept out those chasing longs again. This kind of market specifically targets those chasing both sides and leveraging both sides. $BTC $ETH $SOL The reason Ethereum hurts the most is not a sudden collapse in fundamentals, but because its derivatives are the most active and leverage is the densest. Once volatility amplifies, it triggers a chain of forced liquidations first. Tonight at 20:30, another wave of data will come out: PPI, retail sales, initial jobless claims, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index all packed together. Macro is still being repriced repeatedly; CPI just raised rate hike expectations, and PPI added another blow. The market hasn't formed a consensus on direction at all. At times like this, guessing the rise or fall is meaningless. Surviving is more important than guessing right. Use less leverage, chase fewer breakouts, and wait 15 to 30 minutes after data release to confirm direction before acting. When others are forced out, having bullets left in your hand is the advantage. Personally, I now lean towards a consolidation shakeout, not a trend reversal. Whether BTC can hold steady around 80,000 and whether ETH/BTC turns are two key signals. Volatility will be high before and after tonight's data, so no rush to chase orders instantly. How about you? Are you waiting on the sidelines for direction, or can't resist jumping in to trade back and forth? #USCPIandPPIsurpassexpectations, can there be another rate hike this year? #TSMCQ3netprofitexceedsexpectations, profits hit record highs #Netflixgrowthmayslow, advertising business becomes a new focus #Tesla delivery exceeds expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus 20:30 Five key US data points released simultaneously, where will the market head?
Tonight, five key Federal Reserve monitoring indicators will be released at the same time, directly influencing interest rate expectations and serving as core variables impacting crypto assets. Employment, consumption, upstream inflation, and manufacturing sentiment form two projection paths: if employment weakens, consumption cools, upstream inflation falls, and manufacturing contracts, the market will strengthen rate cut expectations, benefiting the market; if employment remains resilient, consumption and producer prices exceed expectations, and manufacturing recovers, inflation stickiness concerns will rise, suppressing prices.
Each indicator has clear thresholds. Retail sales previous values were high; if the decline is less than expected, it is a latent negative. PPI monthly rate expectations rising is a potential risk point. Going forward, focus on whether all data collectively deviate from expectations.
The market is like a scale, each data point is a weight that adds or subtracts.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Why hasn't Solana's big move in Shanghai been reflected in the price of SOL? 💡
Many people think "good news = price increase," but the crypto market has long passed the stage where event-driven hype can cause mindless surges:
1️⃣ Offline expansion vs on-chain liquidity: Events and ecosystem building are long-term positives that cannot be directly converted into on-chain buying pressure in the short term.
2️⃣ Macro selling pressure: Constrained by the overall market and macro environment, isolated positive news is easily offset by macro sell orders.
3️⃣ Expectations realized become negative: The news has already been priced in, reducing retail investors' willingness to buy.$SKHYNIX Entered the market in the afternoon, $SKHYNIX Hynix has, as expected, started an oversold rebound rally. The first short-term resistance is at the 1000 level; if the price can effectively break through and hold above it, the next target range is 1080‑1240.
The entire memory sector has been continuously adjusting for nearly half a month, with this round of decline being quite dramatic. After the sector's sustained drop, if a bottom can be confirmed today, the subsequent rebound's explosive power should not be underestimated. This is typical of the memory sector: the drop is fierce, but once an oversold rebound starts, the rally is equally intense.
This time, the choice was to position in Hynix rather than buying $SNDK SanDisk, mainly because the afternoon market showed that Hynix was the first to signal a temporary bottom, whereas SanDisk's trend was weaker, with a risk of another sharp drop at any time. The US market opening confirmed this: SanDisk dipped to a low of 1278 intraday, while Hynix's low only reached around 925.
Although both stocks are currently rebounding strongly, there is no need to rush to chase SanDisk. If the memory sector can stabilize and complete a bottom tonight, it will still be timely to consider positioning in SanDisk tomorrow. The market never lacks trading opportunities; waiting for the trend to truly stabilize before acting will make holding positions much more comfortable and help avoid unnecessary intraday shakeouts during weak phases. $BTC $SNDK #US CPI and PPI both exceeded expectations, will there be another rate hike this year? September's inflation reports did more than beat forecasts: both headline and core CPI and PPI came in above expectations. That broadens the policy problem, because the Fed cannot easily dismiss the surprise as one volatile category. Still, Daly and Goolsbee underline that a further hike is a live debate, not a settled outcome.
#USCPIAndPPITopForecasts Don't have high hopes that Solana's "Shanghai landing" will pump the price! ❌
Offline events are for developers and institutions to see, not for retail investors in the secondary market to pump the price.
If a public chain can raise its token price just by holding a few offline Meetups, then that token is not far from going to zero. The real price pump depends on:
• On-chain TVL breakthrough
• Hit applications/phenomenal DApps emerging
• Genuine net capital inflowAfter the CPI dropped to 3.7%, tonight's PPI is the real emotional test. Are you chasing, waiting, or being shaken out now? When I saw last night that the CPI year-on-year was 3.7% and the core also exceeded expectations, my first reaction was not "it's over," but rather—the market is about to start repricing the rate cut path again. This is a typical "event repricing" rhythm: the trend hasn't changed, but the originally anticipated easing timetable has been pushed back one notch. At this stage, I prefer to define it as a game period, not a rally-chasing period nor a clean pullback period. Because derivatives are the truly fragile area. After the CPI release, if the funding rate is still positive and the open interest hasn't dropped much, it means the bulls haven't been hurt and leverage is still stacked on top. This structure fears not the negative news itself, but the price not falling after the negative news—once it holds sideways, it easily lures more buying and then triggers a squeeze. Tonight's PPI expectation is an overall monthly rate of 0.6% and core 0.3%. The key is not the numbers themselves, but what the market has already priced in. The CPI has already brought "higher for longer" back to the table, so if the PPI just meets expectations, it's actually a breather, not a positive. What really needs caution is another surprise beat, then the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will strengthen together, short-term pressure on BTC and ETH will be amplified, and altcoin beta will look even worse. The bullish path is not impossible either. If the PPI is below expectations, U.S. Treasury yields will fall back, risk appetite will$BTC Contract Data and the Dog Whales' Conspiracy — $924 Million Liquidated, Bulls Bloodied
First, in the past 24 hours, a total of $924 million was liquidated across the network, with $802 million liquidated from long positions, accounting for 86.8%! A total of 175,806 people were liquidated. The largest single liquidation occurred on Binance's BTCUSDT, valued at $12,034,700, a long position, executed at a price of $80,208.96.
Second, in the last hour, $484 million was liquidated across the network, with $464 million liquidated from long positions! Among these, there were three single long liquidations exceeding $10 million, all on Binance.
Third, the funding rate has turned negative, with shorts paying longs. The current funding rate is about -0.0031%, shorts have started paying. However, the long-to-short ratio for large accounts is as high as 1.87, and for retail accounts 1.77, with bulls still clustered — this structure is most prone to sudden spikes that sweep longs.
Fourth, open interest has risen to 93,117 contracts, the basis is -0.04%, and ATR14 is 1,032.19. Cost and volatility risk are simultaneously increasing; chasing positions is prone to pullbacks, and tight stop losses are easily triggered.
Fifth, the dog whales' conspiracy: 79,725 is the "slaughter line" drawn by the dog whales! The dog whales used the South Korean stock market crash and CPI exceeding expectations as a fuse, smashing BTC from 84,146 down to 79,725 to trigger long liquidations. Of the $924 million liquidated, 86.8% were longs — the dog whales quietly accumulated at the low. 79,725 has been defended once, and a short-term bottom structure is initially forming, but the strength of the rebound depends on how the CPI is digested. $BTC ETF single-day outflow of 261 million, but whale holdings surpass 3.03 million coins
First, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a single-day net outflow of $261 million, with Fidelity's FBTC leading at a net outflow of $153 million! BlackRock's IBIT had a net outflow of $111 million, while Bitwise's BITB was the only ETF recording a net inflow, with just $2.22 million.
Second, since October, ETFs have had a cumulative outflow of $681 million, marking the largest 5-day outflow since January 23. The total net asset value of ETFs dropped to $104.83 billion, with a net asset ratio of 6.38%.
Third, however, whale holdings have broken through 3.03 million BTC, showing a clear accumulation trend! Despite ETF outflows, large holders' combined Bitcoin holdings have increased to 3.03 million BTC, with whales continuously accumulating during price pullbacks.
Fourth, whale holdings rose from 5.247 million to 5.263 million coins, an increase of 0.305%. Large holders are accumulating while retail investors are exiting—this "large holder accumulation, retail exit" pattern has historically tended to be bullish but requires time to materialize. SanDisk $SNDK's market today is really trying to beat the bulls to death 😧
It had already fallen badly before, and then tonight's PPI came to stab again. After the US market opened, it kept dropping, hitting as low as around 1270.
Wow, just a few days ago it was hovering around 1600, now it’s almost down by 20% 😂
But interestingly, after the drop, there was a pretty fierce rebound, now back around 1360.
I previously bought a long position at 1419.1 and closed all at 1504.6. At that time, I felt the market was overreacting to the news about ChangXin.
My view hasn’t fundamentally changed: ChangXin’s breakthrough in the DRAM field doesn’t directly mean SanDisk’s NAND business is doomed.
But with the market falling like this, I can’t pretend I don’t see it; now I want to see how far this rebound can go.
If it’s just a short breather after panic, then there might be more turmoil ahead.
#韩股盘中跌近8%，全球科技股集体承压 #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
Revenue grew 50.9% year-over-year to 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, and net profit surged 68.7% year-over-year to 763.1 billion New Taiwan Dollars, both setting single-quarter historical highs. The 2nm advanced process now accounts for 8% of wafer revenue, with the overall advanced process ratio reaching as high as 79%. Demand for AI chips remains the core driver.
However, the stock price fell more than 2% after hours.
The core issue lies in the gross margin guidance.
The Q3 gross margin guidance range is 65%-67%, lower than the actual 67.7% achieved in Q2. The market is concerned that capital expenditures are continuously being raised (with the Arizona plant in the US, Kumamoto plant in Japan, and Kaohsiung plant progressing simultaneously), and the massive depreciation and amortization will erode profit margins in the coming quarters.
Simply put: earning more, but spending even more. 本次拉升不是牛市反转、不是新资金进场！
纯属于CPI利空落地后，空单集中止损、空头回补逼空反弹。
基本面依旧偏鹰、通胀粘性强、加息预期还在，本质是诱多反弹。
做多策略
不开仓追多！
原因：反弹无基本面支撑，只是空单平仓推动，追多百分百接盘。
唯一做多机会：站稳上方压力、美债回落，出现持续企稳信号再考虑。
做空策略
冲高不破新高、滞涨回落直接看空
原因：大趋势空头未改，本轮上涨是假性拉升，诱多结束后会二次回落，抛压极大。
短期逼空诱多行情，不追涨、只高空、不抄底、多观望
没有宏观利好落地，所有反弹都是给做空的机会！Brothers, $BLUR is being added to the position! On-chain selling, wailing in the group, I hold this trade firmly
I'm continuing to add to my BLUR short at 0.01166, current price 0.011, floating profit 16.98%, the direction is steady.
On-chain, big money is fleeing faster than anyone else. This morning, 98.57 million BLUR (about $4 million) was transferred from an anonymous address to Coinbase Prime, and market maker Wintermute also transferred about $2.6 million to the exchange. Earlier, 19 new wallets withdrew nearly 50 million BLUR. Market makers transferring coins to exchanges is never to support the price.
The dynamic group chat is already a mess. Blur announced it will shut down the front end on November 12, and some in the group cursed, "So what we held was just that website." Even harsher, Upbit directly put BLUR on the trading warning list, suspended deposits and withdrawals, and the next step is very likely delisting.
In terms of trend, the rebound is a bull trap. Although it bounced 9% from the low, there is a sell order of 900,000 tokens at 0.01105 above, and MA5 is still below MA20, the mid-term trend has not reversed.
I continue to hold the short entered at 0.01166, with a stop loss above 0.0125, looking first at 0.0105 below, and if it breaks, then 0.01.
$BTC $ETH #US CPI and PPI both exceed expectations, will there be another rate hike within the year? 美国月度通胀数据落地
公布：0.6%｜预期：0.6%｜前值：0.4%
本次CPI环比数据和市场预测完全一致，没有出现超预期的意外。
重点要关注：环比从前值0.4%上升至0.6%，通胀重新加速反弹。
通胀粘性再度走强，直接压制美联储的降息预期。
市场原本博弈的降息预期继续降温，高利率环境延续。
对市场的影响：
美元和美债容易走强，风险资产承压。
好在数据没有超出预期，不会引发踩踏式大跌，市场进入震荡消化阶段。
宏观环境依旧偏谨慎，不要盲目博弈反转行情。
投资有风险，仅供信息参考，不构成操作建议。
#$ZEC has completely turned sour today.
The data doesn't lie: a 12%~13% plunge in 24 hours, the worst drop among major coins; a 24h range of $1033—$1269, with market cap evaporating to $18.5 billion (still ranked 10th). Liquidations in 24h reached $20.09 million, of which 88.7% were long positions—those who chased the highs got wiped out. Weekly decline is 10%, and Grayscale's ZEC spot ETF is also seeing net outflows.
Why the worst hit: September CPI at 3.7% and PPI year-on-year at 6.3% both blew past expectations, the probability of a rate hike surged close to 50%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield is nearing 5.3%. ZEC is a high-leverage, high-beta privacy coin; the biggest gainers fall the hardest—it underperformed BTC by about 10 percentage points, a typical "self selling pressure + market drag" double whammy.
Recommendation: $1,070—$1,080 is the short-term lifeline; holding this level could see a rebound to $1,250; a decisive break below points to the next long liquidation zone at $1,050 or even $1,000. On the monthly chart, it still rose over 60%, and several times annually, with heavy profit-taking.
Before the FOMC meeting on October 27-28, don't use leverage to catch this falling knife. If you want to participate, wait until it stabilizes above $1,250.
$BTC $ETH
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高