#Anthropic avvia il roadshow per l'IPO, la valutazione risale a 1,8 trilioni di dollari
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About Anthropic avvia il roadshow per l'IPO, la valutazione risale a 1,8 trilioni di dollari
L'ultimo prospetto informativo di Anthropic fissa l'intervallo di prezzo di emissione tra 70 e 78 dollari per azione, con previsto debutto al Nasdaq il 19 novembre con il ticker ANT, con Goldman Sachs e Morgan Stanley come principali sottoscrittori. Dopo il roadshow, la valutazione è salita a 1,8 trilioni di dollari, con un'impennata delle transazioni di contratti perpetui Pre-IPO on-chain fino a 250 milioni di dollari. Questa IPO fa sì che il valore combinato delle partecipazioni di Amazon e Google sia stimato a 411 miliardi di dollari, suscitando al contempo una rivalutazione del mercato riguardo alle alte valutazioni dell'AI e alla capacità di realizzare profitti a lungo termine.
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anthropic just set its IPO range at $70–78 a share and 7 tech giants have agreed to buy $26B at the final IPO price (google, microsoft, nvidia, amd, broadcom, micron, tsmc)
and i hear people saying ”if THEY‘RE ALL buying at that price, i’m all in on IPO day“
um, please don‘t build your thesis on that…
say you and google both buy at the IPO price, and the stock falls 30%
> your shares: down 30%
> google’s $10B stake: down $3B
> but anthropic has also committed to spend at least ~$121B on google compute through 2033
say google keeps 20 cents of profit on every dollar of that (completely made-up margin, just to show the math). that‘s ~$24B of business profit over the contract
it’s years of hypothetical profit, and google has to deliver the compute to earn it, but you can see why google might like this relationship even if the shares disappoint
meanwhile you only get the stock part
same story down the list
broadcom‘s IPO check is ~$1B, but anthropic can also borrow up to $42B from broadcom or a designated financing partner to pay its equipment leases
nvidia already sells chips into the clouds anthropic runs on
they can make money supplying anthropic even when anthropic’s shareholders aren‘t
last quarter anthropic’s revenue grew about 47% from the quarter before. its compute and infrastructure costs grew about 77%
great quarter to be a supplier
so what do you actually do with this
> flipping day one? google‘s check isn’t your entry price. that trade is about the float, FOMO, and what you actually pay
> holding it? google‘s check doesn’t tell you whether this price works for YOU
me? well, yesterday i wrote that a hot anthropic IPO could suck money out of the rest of the AI trade.
i still expect it to go well from now till and on IPO day, but i‘m just gonna hold my allocation and not chase the open to add more
spacex priced at $135, hit $225.64 four days after listing, then traded below its IPO price about a month later.
getting the debut right didn’t mean getting the investment right!!
at the next earnings, i wanna see more revenue coming out of each dollar spent on compute
last quarter that fell from about $2.10 to $1.70. some of it was expensive short-term capacity, so i‘m watching whether that improves as longer-term capacity comes online
if it keeps getting worse, i’m revisiting the position
google can collect the compute bill while it waits
i can‘t!
$ANTHROPIC walks back its IPO pricing details
Reuters reports that Anthropic has retracted the pricing details it first circulated for its IPO.
1. The company initially sent a copy of a filing showing plans to sell about 867 million shares at $70 to $80 each.
2. It then followed up with an email saying the pricing details were inaccurate.
3. Anthropic said it would update the filing later.
