Orbit Post Sitemap
Once the CPI was released, all the excitement dissipated; underneath, things are actually very fragile. You might think it's just a slight data beat? The real issue is that the market has started to reprice rate hikes. On the surface, tonight is just the core CPI at 2.6%, 0.1% higher than expected. But I watched the market for those ten minutes, and the reaction was completely unlike what you'd expect from a "small beat." After the data release, the 10-year US Treasury yield jumped from 5.19% to 5.27%, BTC dropped 1.2%, gold fell 1.0%, and Nasdaq futures declined 0.8%. Note here, even US stocks couldn't hold up; it’s no longer just gold and crypto taking the hit. This indicates the market is trading not on "rates staying high," but on "possibly another hike." Once this expectation is priced in early, the contraction in risk appetite won't be limited to just one sector. Here's a quick data snapshot: - Core CPI 2.6%, expected 2.5% - 10-year US Treasury yield 5.19% → 5.27% - BTC was around 83,700 before data, dropped 1.2% after - ETH was near 2,500 before data, structurally weak - Nasdaq futures -0.8%, gold -1.0% Momentum signals and risk signals need to be viewed separately. On momentum, BTC is just over 3% away from 80,000, with immediate support at 81,500; if rates don’t ease, it’s hard for BTC to strengthen alone. ETH has always been weaker than BTC, altcoins continue to bleed; this is not rotation, it’s retreat. On risk, the real thunder is not tonight’s drop, but "another[486 million USD evaporated in one hour, bulls got carried away again, ETH is worse off than BTC]
In one hour, long positions liquidated 465 million USD, accounting for over 95%, showing how crowded the short-term bulls were. More strikingly, $ETH liquidations reached 201 million USD, far exceeding $BTC's 117 million USD. Although ETH's market cap is much smaller, leveraged players showed no restraint.
Liquidation does not mean all funds have fled. On October 13, the combined net inflow of BTC and ETH ETFs in the US stock spot market was about 200 million USD, indicating that selling pressure and spot buying may coexist.
Now we need to distinguish whether the price drop is due to a leveraged sell-off or if spot holdings are also continuously retreating.
Short-term traders should not rush to bottom-fish, nor assume the market is over just because longs were wiped out. Liquidations can clear out a batch of high-leverage positions but do not automatically create new buying demand. If open interest decreases and prices stabilize, it suggests deleveraging may be nearing its end; if rebounds lack volume and spot outflows continue, then this 486 million USD might not be the last round.Oh my god, the short position exploded in profit today, but I don't want to take profits yet.
I think it will still drop today, but I also want to open a long position to catch a rebound, just a small long position as a prediction.
This time the CPI is indeed strong because it makes the market worry again: high interest rates will continue, and there might even be more rate hikes. The leverage in the crypto space amplifies this impact.
The transmission process is: inflation exceeds expectations → rate hike concerns intensify → USD and US Treasury yields rise → funds reduce risk positions. Last night the dollar rose, and US stocks were under pressure, so this round of decline has obvious macro resonance. The rise in rate hike expectations does not mean hikes are certain, but funds will withdraw in advance.
The crypto market was already adjusting, and the CPI added another blow.
BTC:
Focus on whether the rebound can recover the position broken in this round of decline. If it rallies but then gets pushed back, the low point may be tested again. Only if it recovers and holds on the pullback will I reduce my bearish stance.
ETH:
Watch 2400 above first, then the previously broken 2500 area. If the rebound can't hold above 2400, be prepared for another dip; don't assume a bottom just because the price is cheap.
SOL: I pay more attention to its strength relative to BTC. If BTC is sideways but SOL continues to hit new lows, it shows weak support. Only if it recovers losses first is it worth reevaluating. Currently, I won't turn bullish based on just one rebound.
My direction remains bearish, but I allow for rebounds in operation. Still continuing to short BTC? ⚠️ The price has already reached the strong support at 80500, the bears' strength is exhausted, and the target for this rebound is 84800!
$BTC hit an intraday low of 80228.2, close to the key support area at 80500. The selling pressure has clearly weakened, and the bears lack the momentum to continue their attack. The 4-hour KDJ indicator's J value is only 1.9, entering a deep oversold zone, indicating a strong need for a corrective rebound.
This sharp drop is mostly a leverage cleanup; after continuous declines, the buying support below is accumulating strength. Once the support holds, the market will start to rebound, aiming for the 84800 target.
In terms of operation, do not blindly continue shorting; it is not recommended to add to short positions. Focus closely on the 80500 support—if it holds, expect a rebound; if it breaks down effectively, adjust your strategy accordingly. #USCPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, and tonight's PPI faces another test $BTC 1-hour long liquidation reached $118 million Total 1-hour long liquidation reached $464 million Beware of bull traps
All three metrics declined within 5 minutes, indicating that bulls are actively conceding during the downtrend rather than bottom-fishing and adding positions.
Long-short ratio:
Binance/OKX account long-short ratio is 1.79~1.79, large account holder ratio is 1.87 — long positions are nearly 1.8 times the short positions, with retail and large holders strongly aligned on the bullish side.
Large account holder ratio 1.8653 > position ratio 1.504, meaning shorts among large holders have heavier average positions — smart money is using the rebound to set up shorts or hedge.
$ETH $ZEC #US CPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, tonight's PPI faces another test #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 TSMC released its earnings today, and the stock dropped 2% pre-market.
It's now at 425, down 12% from the high of 484. The MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all pressing down from above, just like BTC.
The 50% revenue growth in Q3 was already known last week. The market is now betting on one thing: whether the gross margin can hold above 67%.Level 8 Gale｜Asia-Pacific Market Storm Hits! Japanese and Korean Stock Markets Plunge Collectively, Korean Stocks Plummet Nearly 8% Intraday, Nikkei 225 Drops Over 4%, Crypto Market Begins to Follow with Volatility 📉
The aftershocks of the hawkish CPI overnight continue to spread, with risk assets in the Asia-Pacific opening session collectively stampeding: Korean stocks plunged nearly 8% intraday triggering a circuit breaker, Nikkei 225 index fell over 4%, and global panic sentiment quickly transmitted.
Today's market changes:
When the CPI was released the previous night, crypto managed to hold at low levels, with the bears venting and the decline narrowing; but after this wave of panic spread in the Asia-Pacific stock markets, the crypto market was also dragged down by sentiment, and the market began to show back-and-forth oscillations, no longer simply resisting declines.
However, it is worth noting: although volatility has increased, SOL and ETH have not yet effectively broken below previous key lows, and the lower support is still being contested.
The main focus remains on US Treasury yields; as long as US Treasury yields continue to rise, the pressure on global risk assets will not disappear. With significant turmoil in external markets, do not blindly heavily bet on the bottom. It's better to earn less but keep discipline. In a market with intensified volatility, prioritize waiting for stabilization confirmation signals, and enter with small positions to avoid heartache.
#US Treasury yields frequently hit new highs, long-term rate pressure remains unresolved
$BTC $ETH $SOL #Korean stocks fell nearly 8% intraday, global tech stocks collectively under pressure
$SKHY fell 6% intraday and then dropped another 3.86% after hours. It has lost 30% over 7 trading days. My view on memory stocks has always been as a mid-term target. As long as AI demand continues to rise, memory stocks won’t have major problems. But memory stocks also have their own cyclicality.
This cycle is like the "pig cycle": when pork prices are high, more people raise pigs; after supply increases, pork prices fall; the price drop leads to fewer pig farmers, supply decreases, and pork prices rise again, continuing the cycle. Memory is the same. Recently, memory manufacturers have been expanding production, and Chinese manufacturers like Changxin have also joined the competition. It’s foreseeable that global memory capacity will increase. Whether prices can hold depends on whether AI demand growth outpaces capacity growth. If after expansion memory is still in shortage, memory stocks can keep performing well. Otherwise, they will inevitably enter a down cycle.
If you still hold positions now, you can wait for the November earnings report. If there’s a rebound, you can reduce your holdings appropriately to give yourself some room.
Also, watch less Douyin. Storage has shifted from "storage is king" last month to "storage is doomed" these days. If you have weak self-control, watch less of the emotional expressions.$BTC Market | The First Blow After CPI Release
US September CPI exceeded expectations across the board: overall year-on-year 3.7% (expected 3.6%), core month-on-month 0.3% (expected 0.2%), year-on-year 2.6%. The 9.1% monthly surge in gasoline is just the surface; housing rose 0.4%, and used cars, airfares, and medical costs all increased, indicating that price hikes have spread beyond energy — the claim that it's "just an energy disturbance" no longer holds.
Market: Upon data release, BTC dropped 1% in five minutes, falling from 83,350 steadily down past 83,000 and 82,000, hitting a low of 81,926, closing at 81,830 (-1.61%). This morning it maintained a weak oscillation between 81,600–82,000, down about 2% in 24 hours. Gold fell 1.5%, silver plummeted 6%, Nasdaq dropped 2%, the US dollar index surged to an 18-month high, and the 10-year US Treasury yield broke 5.3% intraday — this is a synchronized valuation cut across all risk assets, not a crypto-specific negative.
Key point: The October rate hike bet surged from 22% to 45%, Daly said "very likely to hike again."
Advice: 81,900–81,600 is the lifeline; a daily close below this points to 80,365; a rebound requires retaking 84,245 to be considered a recovery. Tomorrow night’s PPI is the second shoe to drop, so don’t rush to bottom-fish.
$ETH $ZEC
#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
Q3 revenue is clear, the real battle is this afternoon
Q3 revenue reached 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, a year-on-year increase of 50.9%, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of record highs, and even exceeding the company's own guidance (actual about $46.7 billion vs. guidance upper limit of $45.8 billion).
But revenue is just the first half. The real suspense lies in the gross margin: Q3 guidance is 65%-67%, lower than Q2's actual 67.7%—the 2nm ramp-up is expected to dilute by 3-4 points. Whether net profit can outpace revenue growth depends on this.
There is a conference call at 2 PM today, focusing on three points: gross margin level, Q4 guidance, and capex (whether the $60-64 billion will be raised again).
A bit of a cold shower: the stock price just hit a record high, and the revenue beat is likely already priced in. The decisive factor this afternoon is not revenue, but whether the profit margin can withstand the 2nm ramp-up.
Withstand = truly beat expectations; fail to withstand = all good news priced in.
This is not investment advice, results will be revealed this afternoon. The CPI negative news has already been clearly signaled, so why am I starting to pay attention to BTC's rebound??
Yesterday, inflation data exceeded expectations, and BTC followed with a sell-off. The market is again worried about whether the decline will continue.
But I think there is a problem now that is more important than the CPI numbers.
When everyone knows it's negative news, the crypto market often shows a situation where the news is clearly bad, but the price doesn't continue to break down and even starts to rebound.
This doesn't mean the negative news has disappeared; rather, the market may have already priced in part of it in advance.
So next, I will pay special attention to a few signals!
Short covering driving price up, and spot trading volume increasing will raise the credibility of the rebound.
Can the decline be stopped?
If BTC stabilizes but ETH continues to weaken, it means the market may still be unwilling to take on too much risk.
If open interest (OI) drops, can the price hold?
If a large amount of leverage has been cleaned out but the price doesn't break down further, that is a signal worth observing.
Conversely, if the price continues to fall and OI quickly increases, be cautious that new leveraged positions are accumulating.
What I care about now is not guessing whether BTC will rise or fall tomorrow, but whether this negative news has made the market more fragile or has already cleared some overheated leverage.
Sometimes the real opportunity is not when positive news is announced, but after negative news comes out and the market refuses to fall!
Do you think BTC is preparing to stop the decline this time, or is there another wave after the rebound?#US September CPI year-on-year rose to 3.7%, core inflation exceeded expectations $BTC $ETH $OKB #TSMCOct15Earnings The revenue of 1.49 trillion is just an announced figure, look at these three things in the earnings report on Thursday
TSMC's revenue in Q3 reached 1.49 trillion New Taiwan dollars, a year-on-year increase of +50%, a historic record — but this was already announced last week. The real highlight in the earnings report on October 15 is these three things below.
First, the gross profit margin. The guidance is between 65%-67%, while it was 67.7% in Q2. Morgan Stanley directly estimates 67.5%, and the entire market is betting on the upper limit Conclusion first: Whether it can hold depends on $2,400, but today it fell harder than BTC, making it one of the weakest major coins. ETH dropped from $2,508 yesterday to a low of $2,401, closing at $2,423, a single-day decline of -3.41%, with a trading volume of $297 million. CPI was higher than expected, and high Beta assets fell more sharply; ETH is a typical example—it fell 3.4%, while BTC only fell 2.1%. Look at the structure. Spot price is $2,423, perpetual contracts are aligned, no de-peg. Open interest is about $1.53 billion; funding rate is +0.0087%, slightly positive. Note this detail—price fell but the funding rate is still positive, indicating bulls have not given up yet. If it continues to fall, this part of the leverage has room to be cleared, so watch out for subsequent deleveraging. Look at the position. Currently at $2,423, it has broken below the 7-day moving average ($2,491), 14-day moving average ($2,566), 30-day moving average ($2,608), and 60-day moving average ($2,512)—all four moving averages broken. The 14-day low is $2,401 (yesterday's low), and the 30-day low is $2,358. In other words, it is standing on the previous low of $2,401, which is the short-term lifeline. Market cap is $295.7 billion, ranked 2nd. ETH's DeFi, stablecoins, and RWA fundamentals remain, providing mid-term support. But the short-term structure has clearly weakened. What about the short-term trend? In the next 1-2 weeks: pessimistic (35%) break below After the CPI release, gold dropped 1.6%, silver fell 3.4%, and the Nasdaq dropped 0.72%. Bitcoin only fell 1.5%, roughly the same as gold.
Gold's market cap is 28.7 trillion, silver's is 3.2 trillion, and Bitcoin's is only 1.7 trillion. Its market cap is just one-seventeenth of gold's and half of silver's, yet it didn't fall as sharply as they did.
Small-cap assets have resilience comparable to gold. This toughness is indeed something.$BTC is focusing on one line today: $81,500
$BTC is currently at $81,345, $ETH at $2,370. The aftershocks of yesterday's CPI 3.7% exceeding expectations haven't faded yet, and the probability of a rate hike in October jumped from 22% to 49%, with macro headwinds clearly present. But $BTC is exactly sitting on the average cost line of US spot ETF holders at $81,500, a level that has already supported two rebounds.
The capital flow tells the same story: last week, ETF net outflows were $679 million, the largest since the end of June; but on Tuesday, there were reports that IBIT and FBTC returned about $176 million (source unnamed, to be verified). Some ran when prices fell, some stepped in when they came back.
If $81,500 holds, there is still room to fight today, with the rebound first targeting around $84,000; if the hourly close falls below $81,500, the target is directly $77,500. Until the headwinds clear, do not chase the rebound high.Take profit at 2335 was pierced in a second, this short on ETH really hurt
Brothers, that spike just now, all the shorts must have been hit hard, right?
$BTC directly dropped to just above 80000, ETH was even more brutal, plunging straight down to 2310.
Here's my trade: I opened an ETH short at 2511, set take profit at 2335, and that one spike just pierced it, locking in 176 points without hesitation.
Honestly, I was sure it would drop this round, but I didn't expect it to fall so fast and decisively.
The logic is simple: last night core CPI was 0.3%, overall 3.7%, both exceeding expectations, turning the rate cut scenario into a rate hike on the spot. CME shows at least two hikes before the end of January 2027 with a 73.7% probability, October hike probability jumped from 21.6% to 43.7%, and the chance of no change is only 1.2%. Before the data, people were shouting "bad news is priced in, full position bottom fishing," but overnight all that became fuel, and BTC at 84000 was the bulls' last trap to lure longs.
You can check my post from yesterday, I kept saying, don't chase longs before the data, the rebound is just giving shorts some room, once the macro trend reverses, the stampede is faster than anyone.
Brothers who got hit by this move, report in the comments, let me see how many got hurt.
If you missed it, don't worry, there will be rebounds during the rate hike cycle, opportunities are not just this once. But remember, don't catch the first spike like a flying knife.
The above is just market observation, not trading advice.
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 How do whales operate? Starting from this precise ETH long position to closing after CPI
A whale opened a long position of 20,000 ETH at about $1936 on August 19, holding for over 56 days, with a peak unrealized profit of about $17 million, finally closing the position after a pullback triggered by a hotter-than-expected CPI, locking in about $8.93 million in profit.
This typical whale operation is actually a true trading bible:
· Position early at low levels instead of chasing highs;
· Hold mid-term positions, able to withstand large drawdowns in unrealized profits;
· Use clear macro events (CPI) as exit signals, rather than stubbornly holding to target prices;
· Prioritize locking in certain profits, not chasing the perfect selling point.
Yesterday's CPI was indeed a bit of a surprise,
Year-over-year 3.7% higher than expected, pushing up US Treasury yields and rate hike expectations,
BTC fell from near 84,000 to around 81,500, ETH dropped to the 2410–2430 range, increasing long liquidations.
My judgment:
$BTC support at 81,000–80,500, if broken may test 80,000;
Resistance at 82,500–83,000, strong resistance at 84,000.
$ETH support at 2380–2400, if broken may test 2350;
Resistance at 2480–2500, strong resistance at 2550.
Short-term macro still dominates, whales choose to take profits rather than continue to bet on a rebound, reflecting risk control priority.
Watch subsequent inflation data and Fed statements. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 Good morning, the crypto market today is not a "rollercoaster of sharp rises and falls," but more like institutions rearranging the table, gamblers exchanging chips, and regulators tightening access controls. 1. Market overview: BTC is not lying flat, ETH is a bit tired BTC is grinding in the 77,000–78,000 range, the fear and greed index has dropped back to "neutral to slightly cold," and the options market is not very excited in the short term. ETH is weak in following the rise and even fell for a while compared to the previous period; the market no longer trusts the old script of "ETH soon surging to previous highs," focusing more on whether staking income and L2 fees can support the valuation. The total market cap is about 2.6 trillion USD, with trading volume declining compared to the previous period, indicating this is not a bull frenzy but a process of selective washing and picking targets. 2. Regulation: Licenses abroad, source blocking domestically China continues to suppress virtual currencies and RWA tokenization as illegal financial risks: currency exchange, matching, pricing, token financing, and domestic RWA intermediaries all cross red lines; issuing RMB stablecoins recklessly is also off the table. Overseas, regulation is more about "incorporation": Thailand allows BTC and ETH spot ETFs to trade on exchanges starting 10/16; the UK is revising payment rules to accommodate tokenized deposits; Singapore's OCBC issues tokenized gold on ETH/Solana; Russia has passed the first reading of a crypto legalization framework. In short: the West is pushing crypto into "securities/funds/payment pipelines," while the East treats crypto as "money laundering and espionage funding risks" to be blocked. 3. Major industry events: Money flows to places "explainable to regulators" Tokenized gold/funds/government bonds are becoming attractive: Legal & General#TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed
TSMC's Q3 revenue surged 50% year-over-year to a record high, but the market did not rally. The core focus is not on the realized revenue but on profitability and future guidance.
The company provided a Q3 gross margin guidance of 65%-67%, down from 67.7% in Q2 quarter-over-quarter. The main pressure comes from increased capital expenditures due to capacity expansion. The strong revenue growth is driven by AI foundry orders, but expansion costs will erode profits.
The current 2% stock price decline reflects a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario, as the revenue upside has already been priced in. The real highlights of the earnings report are: first, whether the actual gross margin is near the upper or lower end of the range; second, the Q4 revenue guidance to verify if AI demand can continue; third, whether capital expenditures will be further increased.
If the gross margin approaches 67%, Q4 guidance is strong, and spending is controllable, the stock price is expected to recover; conversely, if it nears the 65% lower limit, guidance is weak, and spending surges, the stock will remain under pressure. The earnings report can also indirectly confirm the AI industry chain's market sentiment.$UNI #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight Uniswap V4 major upgrade explained
Uniswap officially launches a new ETH/USDC trading pool equipped with VolatilePair Hook, achieving differentiated fees for buying and selling, breaking the traditional DEX uniform fee model.
Traditional AMM mechanisms have fixed fees; in extreme market conditions, arbitrage bots quickly capture volatility profits, while liquidity providers continuously bear impermanent loss, severely diluting returns.
Relying on V4 programmable Hook smart contracts, the new pool can identify market trends in real time: low fees for trend-following trades, dynamic fees added for large counter-trend impact trades, effectively raising the cost of reverse arbitrage bots and suppressing high-frequency malicious arbitrage.
The core of this upgrade is to reshape the on-chain trading profit structure, protect LP returns, reduce impermanent loss, and retain the value of market volatility within the ecosystem.
This is also a key implementation of the Uniswap V4 programmable ecosystem, marking the DEX's transition from basic token swaps to a new stage of on-chain finance that is intelligent, risk-controllable, and strategy-customizable.#TSMCOct15Earnings TSMC's Q3 revenue explodes, but October 15 is the real test
1.49 trillion TWD, a 50% year-over-year growth, a historic record high — TSMC's Q3 revenue was finalized early and exceeded the highest forecast. But this figure no longer matters; market expectations have been pushed very high, and what management says in the legal meeting will determine whether the stock price rises or falls.
Four questions decide the direction
$TSM #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profit performance to be revealed
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, what other highlights are there in the October 15 earnings report?
Do you think TSMC can break records again with this earnings report?
Latest data shows TSMC's Q3 revenue soared to 1.49 trillion New Taiwan dollars, approximately 46.7 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 51% $TSM
Market forecasts net profit to reach 746.3 billion New Taiwan dollars, which if realized would mark six consecutive quarters of record-high profits. In this AI boom, it remains the steady water seller on the fishing platform.
Compared to Q3 results, two variables attract more attention:
▶️ Gross margin and guidance
Last quarter's gross margin was 67.7%, with official estimates for Q3 between 65% and 67%. Against the backdrop of 3nm being snapped up by Nvidia and Apple, it will be interesting to see if management raises full-year revenue growth guidance and increases capital expenditure.
▶️ The Texas factory drama
Elon Musk proposed the Terafab chip park plan, with TSMC possibly only leasing. The Arizona plant is not yet finalized, so moving to Texas is not urgent; it seems more like a long-term layout post-2030 or a geopolitical bargaining chip.
Compared to chip manufacturing, the real bottleneck is advanced packaging CoWoS; packaging and testing capacity can't keep up, so AI chips still can't be delivered on time.
Looking ahead:
▶️ Short-term caution against all good news being priced in
Even if data is strong, if gross margin guidance slows, the stock price may experience short-term volatility and pullback.
▶️ Long-term moat is very deep
Major players' self-developed chips still rely on its technology and yield in the short term; in the coming years, it remains the biggest beneficiary of the AI dividend. #MetaQ3AISpendingOutlook #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
其实现在财报营收亮眼，然后市场不买账，下跌这种次数也越来越多了。主要原因还是，第一点是利好出尽，因为在这个财报公布之前，大家就都有判断出来，台积电业绩肯定很好，毕竟还是一家独大，他负责代工很多芯片之类的。目前还没有一个老二能挑战他。。第二个原因还是整体的这个半导体板块重挫，尤其是三星海力士，他们的巨幅下跌也会影响台积电的走向。所以这次，其实台积电依旧是可以考虑逢低买入的，经济危机 2027 年下半年最早来，所以还有差不多半年一年左右的时间可以操作。TSMC's just released Q3 report, if you only look at the record-high revenue and net profit, might not feel surprising to seasoned market watchers; it's basically that AI computing demand is still tearing through capacity on the main board.
Actually, despite the cost overruns from building overseas fabs and the "money-eating" pressure from early 2nm capacity ramp-up, the gross margin still manages to head straight toward the guidance ceiling. This shows that advanced process technology gives downstream chip giants more bargaining power than most imagine.
Simply put, whether it's Nvidia or Apple, there is no second choice. If your computing chip wants to crush competitors on power efficiency, you have to honestly pay TSMC the toll.
Many worry that management's heavy capital expenditure will drag down short-term cash flow and margins, but I see this as the most hardcore moat strategy. In the wafer foundry industry, which is extremely asset-heavy and technology-barrier intense, the essence of counter-cyclical and pro-cyclical massive capacity expansion is to use huge capital to forge absolute monopoly on the next generation node.
Wall Street's buy rating logic is actually simple: they aren't focused on one or two quarters' depreciation cost fluctuations, but on who will be the true winner taking the most certain profits in the AI infrastructure buildout wave.
As long as the downstream computing narrative doesn't completely fade, TSMC's logic of locking downstream pricing power through process leadership won't change. Cost pressure is real, but so is the ability to transfer costs through pricing power.
#TSMCQ3RevenueRecordHigh, profitability performance to be revealed CPI data has been released, overall inflation exceeded expectations, and core inflation rose simultaneously. The Fed's excuse of "only relying on energy price increases" has been completely torn apart. The market responded with a sharp drop; what should we expect next?
After the data came out, BTC immediately fell below 82,000. ETF funds were already flowing out, and now with tighter macro expectations, buyers dare not enter. If 80,000 doesn't hold today, the next support is 78,000.
ETH is the worst off; it was already the weakest among the three. ETFs continue to bleed, staking yields can't keep up with U.S. Treasuries, and institutions are not stepping in at the bottom. When BTC weakens, ETH falls the hardest. It continues to decline today, and it’s estimated to be difficult to stabilize in the short term.
XAUT also plunged, with spot gold dropping nearly 2%. Core inflation exceeding expectations pushed up real interest rates, and both the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are rising together. Non-yielding gold can only take a hit in the short term. But gold quickly rebounded today because ETF allocation funds are still flowing in, and central banks have not stopped. The biggest difference between gold and BTC is that BTC’s buyers are on-chain whales, while gold’s buyers are central banks and sovereign funds. The capital attributes and patience of the latter are on a completely different level.
Hold your BTC and ETH spot positions firmly, and unload all short-term leverage. Gold is under short-term pressure but fundamentally stronger than BTC. #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 @OKX星球 TSMC's Q3 revenue hits a record high, but the real focus might be on Q4
TSMC is about to release its full Q3 financial report.
Based on previously released monthly data, Q3 revenue is approximately 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, a year-on-year increase of about 50%, setting a new historical high.
However, for investors, record revenue is only the first step; what truly matters is whether this performance can continue to support the market's optimistic expectations for the AI industry chain.
I believe there are three key points to watch going forward:
1️⃣ Can the gross margin be maintained at a high level?
The market is focusing on a gross margin guidance of about 65%–67%. If revenue continues to grow but gross margin declines significantly, further observation is needed on how advanced process expansion, capital expenditures, and cost changes impact profitability.
2️⃣ Can the Q4 performance guidance exceed expectations?
Stock prices trade not only on past performance but also on future growth expectations.
When the market has fully priced in AI demand growth, simply delivering a strong financial report may not be enough to push the stock price higher. What really matters is whether the company's outlook is more optimistic than market expectations.
3️⃣ Can AI demand translate into sustained profit growth?
The long-term logic of the AI industry remains worth attention, but investors also need to distinguish two issues: whether AI demand truly exists and whether the current stock price has already fully reflected this growth.
A good company is not necessarily always a good price.
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profitability performance to be revealed #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins #TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed TSMC's Q3 2026 revenue reached a historic high of 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars (approximately 46.7 billion USD), up 51% year-over-year, exceeding market expectations.
The core driver is AI high-performance computing orders, with 5nm/3nm advanced processes running at full capacity, supported by a rebound in Apple's iPhone business, maintaining a high gross margin.
⚠️ Risks: Performance is highly tied to the AI capital expenditure cycle; US factory construction increases costs, with uncertainties in geopolitical and industry competition.
Focus on the upcoming Q4 performance guidance; impressive financial results do not necessarily mean the stock price will rise, as positive news is easily priced in and may pull back. #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profit performance yet to be revealed. TSMC released its earnings today, but the stock fell 2% pre-market.
It has now dropped 12% from the high of 484. The MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all pressing down from above, exactly like BTC.
The 50% increase in Q3 revenue was expected, known since last week. The market is now betting on one thing: whether the gross margin can hold above 67%.
Last night CPI just exploded, and tonight there are PPI and retail data. Reporting earnings at such a time, even if the numbers look good, if the broader market continues to fall, TSMC won’t be able to hold up.
Previously, the options market bet on a post-earnings volatility of ±5%, but the past four times averaged only 2.87%. Expectations are maxed out; at this level, the biggest fear is "good news already priced in"? If guidance is a bit softer, the stock price will still be hammered. #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profit performance yet to be revealed Quite interesting #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
The 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching 5%, but the market still seems skeptical.
The Treasury is buying back long-term bonds, theoretically providing support to the market, yet yields continue to rise.
I feel the market's focus is no longer just on whether interest rates are high, but on how much debt the US will issue in the coming years.
Inflation hasn't been fully suppressed, fiscal spending hasn't stopped, and the debt scale keeps growing. Looking at these factors together, it's hard for long-term capital to feel completely at ease.
This is actually a rather interesting phase for the crypto market.
On one hand, US Treasury yields nearing 5% will indeed divert some risk capital; on the other hand, if the high yields reflect increasing debt pressure, some funds will seek alternatives outside of US Treasuries.
Gold has been performing well recently, and $BTC is also doing fine. I think this is somewhat related to this macro backdrop.
In the past, people liked to compare BTC with the Nasdaq, but now more and more are starting to discuss BTC, gold, and US Treasuries within the same framework.
This shift itself might be more worth paying attention to than short-term price fluctuations.$ETH $BTC
1小时爆仓4.6亿，多头遭遇血洗
刚才一小时全网爆仓4.6亿，
几乎全是多单被抬走，
ETH和BTC同时跳水，
持仓量断崖式往下掉，
说明是多头踩踏，
不是正常回调。
当前价格仍受压于均线下方，
MACD死叉未改；
若无法快速收复失地并站稳支撑位，
空头趋势将延续。
市场处于极度弱势，
短期依然看空，
但需警惕超跌后的报复性反弹。
建议等待反弹至关键阻力位受阻后再顺势操作，
严控杠杆，
防范插针风险。 #TSMCOct15Earnings TSMC's revenue has already exceeded expectations, so what is the Thursday earnings call really about?
TSMC's Q3 revenue was actually announced early, about $46.7 billion, higher than the company's own forecast of $44.6 to $45.8 billion. The Thursday earnings call isn't about revenue, but about the costs behind that revenue.
The first hurdle is gross margin. The Q3 guidance is 65% to 67%, with a midpoint of 66%, which is 1.7 percentage points lower than Q2's 67.7%, 资金回流≠反转！别被第一根阳线骗了 (｡•́︿•̀｡)
$BTC 83,314，ETH 2,496，SOL 106.61。
单日ETF数据看着挺美：BTC净流入1.76亿，ETH 2480万，SOL还在偷偷溜走。但拉长到7天——整体仍在失血。一天的回流，充其量是溺水者探出水面吸了口气，不代表已经上岸 (￣▽￣)*
看盘面语言更诚实：BTC抗跌，ETH和$SOL 腿软。资金没形成合力，哪来的全面进攻？
今晚九月CPI落地，才是真正的试金石。数据公布前，我压根不关心谁先蹦起来——急着抢跑的人，往往被埋在假突破里 (╯﹏╰)
我的验证逻辑很简单：
🔸 只有BTC涨 → 局部修复，别激动
🔸 ETH、SOL同步跟上 → 反弹可信度才成立
真正的机会，从来不在第一根急涨的K线里，而在市场交卷之后 (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧
这次回流，是反转前奏还是下跌中继？今晚见分晓。别急着抄底，等市场先亮牌。#美国9月CPI同比升至3.7%，核心通胀超预期 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 TSMC released its earnings report today, but the stock dropped 2% pre-market.
It's now at 425, down 12% from the high of 484. The MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all pressing down from above, just like BTC.
The 50% revenue increase in Q3 was expected, known since last week. The market is now betting on one thing: whether the gross margin can hold above 67%.
The problem is the unfavorable macro environment. CPI just exploded last night, and tonight there are PPI and retail data coming out. Reporting earnings in such a context, even if the numbers look good, if the overall market keeps falling, TSMC won't be able to hold up.
Previously, the options market bet on a post-earnings volatility of ±5%, but the average of the last four times was only 2.87%. Expectations are maxed out, and at this level, the biggest fear is "good news already priced in" — so what if revenue hits a record high? If guidance is a bit soft, the stock price will still be hammered.
Also, look at the recent trend: the stock dropped 12% before the earnings report, as if someone ran early.Revenue of 1.49 trillion is just the obvious card; watch these three things in Thursday's earnings report
TSMC's Q3 revenue hit 1.49 trillion New Taiwan dollars, up 50% year-on-year, a historic high — but this was already known, announced last week. The real highlights of the October 15 earnings report are the following three points.
First, gross margin. Guidance is 65%-67%, while Q2 was 67.7%. Morgan Stanley directly estimates 67.5%, and the market is fully betting on the high end. WhetherWhen people come, does it mean someone will definitely buy the coin?
$DOGE I think the easiest thing to overlook is that payment and holding are actually two different things.
If more people use it to buy things, of course that helps usage, but if merchants immediately convert it back to cash after receiving it, the buying demand can quickly turn into selling.
It still has about 5 billion new coins added each year, but the proportion of new supply relative to the total is gradually decreasing.
So what I want to see more is, after the hype dies down, how many people are willing to keep a balance. Being able to spend it is one use case, but willingness to hold is another layer of demand.
$WLD also needs to be analyzed separately. Identity verification is useful, but it doesn’t mean all users need to buy the coin.
World ID, the applications, and WLD belong to the same network, but they solve different problems, so you can’t directly equate the number of verified users with the number of token buyers.
My judgment criterion is simple: after a person completes identity verification, what else requires continuous use of WLD?
If this question is clarified, it’s easier to assess the significance of user growth for the coin price.
The relationship with $RENDER is more direct. Payment for computing tasks corresponds to token burning, but the network also issues rewards simultaneously.
So just looking at burn numbers isn’t enough; you also have to see if customers pay repeatedly and if orders can be sustained. A single large order can make the data look good, but returning customers better indicate whether this business is stable.#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
说我的预期，分三层看：
已经基本成定局的：营收
台积电每月公布营收，三个月加总已经出来了：Q3 合计约 1.494 万亿新台币（约 467 亿美元）、同比 +51%，已经超过公司自己给的 446–458 亿美元指引区间，也高于分析师平均预期的 1.46 万亿。所以营收这块没有悬念，是"已知的好"。
大概率落点：利润和毛利率
市场共识：净利润约 7,400 亿新台币上下（同比约 +65%）、每份 ADR 盈利约 4.4 美元。毛利率公司指引 65%–67%（二季度是 67.7%，指引本身就预告了环比稀释，来自 2nm 爬坡和海外厂）。我的预期是落在指引中上沿——需求和产能利用率摆在那儿，真正的考验是稀释幅度别超预期。#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
$476 million liquidated in one hour! Bullish stampede review + market analysis
✅ Core reasons for liquidation
1. Root cause: Macro bearish due to CPI exceeding expectations
US September CPI and core CPI both exceeded expectations, causing the market to reprice the Fed's rate hike probability, pushing US Treasury yields up and the dollar stronger. Crypto is a non-interest-bearing risk asset, so large funds first reduce positions to hedge risk. BTC and ETH spot ETFs have been continuously seeing net outflows, with insufficient buying pressure to absorb the sell-off.
2. Chain reaction: Bullish concentrated stop-loss triggers a stampede
Many funds previously speculated on CPI optimism and placed long orders in advance, accumulating a large number of long positions near support levels. After the price broke key levels, stop-loss orders were triggered en masse, and these stop-loss orders themselves became sell orders, further pushing prices down, creating a negative feedback loop (the more it falls, the more liquidations; the more liquidations, the more it falls).
3. Structure: ETH is the hardest hit
ETH is much more elastic than BTC, and leveraged funds prefer to add longs on ETH, so this time ETH liquidation amount ($199 million) exceeded Bitcoin's, with a deeper drop (24h -5.54%).
📌 How to interpret the market next & trading ideas
Market signal interpretation
1. Large short-term long liquidations will release some selling pressure in the short term but do not mean an immediate bottom or rebound
Liquidations are forced liquidations; after forced selling ends, there will be a temporary lack of concentrated selling pressure, making a small rebound likely; however, the macro bearish logic remains (rising rate hike expectations), so the rebound is likely weak and unlikely to reverse into a strong rally.
2. Focus on the two previously mentioned defensive support levels
• BTC: first defense at 81500, strong support at 80000
• ETH: first defense at 2400, strong support at 2300
ETH has already broken the first defense line at 2400 and is now testing the 2300 level; if 2300 is effectively broken, a new round of leveraged stampede will begin.
3. Small-cap privacy coins like ZEC: In a market environment where large caps are killing longs, altcoin risks are greater, downside is more likely to spiral out of control, and support levels become less reliable.
Trading ideas based on position status
🔹 If you currently hold long positions:
• No stop-loss set, heavy position: Do not blindly hold; macro bearishness has not disappeared. Once strong support is broken, a new liquidation wave will come; reduce positions first on small rebounds to control risk.
• Light long positions: Do not rush to add on rebounds; move stop-loss down below new lows and strictly control losses.
🔹 If you are short:
• Currently in the bearish realization phase; a wave of concentrated liquidations has already occurred in the short term, so it is not suitable to chase shorts!
Chasing shorts risks hitting short-term reversals like “bearish landing and oversold rebound” spikes, easily triggering stop-losses; wait for rebounds to resistance levels before looking for opportunities.
🔹 If you are out of the market:
Priority is to observe; the macro bearish CPI needs time to digest. Wait for two signals before considering entry: either price holds strong support and stops falling with sideways movement; or Fed officials signal easing and rate hike expectations cool down. Do not guess or bottom-fish.
#韩股盘中跌近8%，全球科技股集体承压
$BTC $ETH $SNDK The formula for making big money in the crypto circle is something I have been thinking about more and more on my own. If you do these 5 things well, basically your capital can achieve compound interest, step by step, and the profits you earn will increase more and more. First, you have to choose the right targets. In the crypto circle, it's easy to choose—only Bitcoin and Ethereum. Then, patiently wait for their sharp drops.
By sharp drops, I mean a drop of at least 50% from the peak, then place buy orders in batches, aiming to build a heavy position. Then hold long-term, no matter what kind of pullbacks or negative news, just don’t get off the ride, firmly stay on board. Finally, when emotions are high and the market is shouting about an eternal bull market, sell in batches to secure profits.
This cycle repeats, so there’s no worry about not getting big results. In fact, the two bull markets I experienced in the circle followed this path. In 2020, the average price was 8,000, held long-term until selling at 54,000 in May 2021; in 2022, the average price was 18,000, held long-term, then sold in batches at 110,000 to 120,000 in 2025.
This time in 2026, I’m actually following a similar path. Bitcoin dropped from 126,000 to 63,000, and I started building positions in batches. But this bear market’s drop was a bit too small, so I only bought two layers of positions before a big V-shaped rebound happened. Now I can only patiently wait for opportunities to appear. It’s impossible for me to chase and FOMO buy Bitcoin above 80,000. At worst, I just miss out, and missing out doesn’t lose money. Besides, I still have 20% of my position on board and 80% in wealth management, so my mindset is actually quite okay.#TSMCOct15Earnings Doanh thu quý 3 của TSMC thực ra đã được công bố từ lâu, khoảng 46,7 tỷ USD, cao hơn dự báo của công ty là từ 44,6 đến 45,8 tỷ USD. Cuộc họp báo cáo tài chính vào thứ Năm không phải để kiểm tra doanh thu, mà là chi phí đằng sau doanh thu.
Thử thách đầu tiên là tỷ suất lợi nhuận gộp. Dự báo quý 3 là từ 65% đến 67%, trung bình 66%, thấp hơn 1,7 điểm phần trăm so với 67,7% của quý 2, nguyên nhân là do việc tăng công suất 2nm làm loãng khoảng 3 đến 4 điểm phần trăm.After the US CPI data was released yesterday, US Treasury bonds initially plunged, with yields rising to near historical highs. However, as the stock market fluctuated and declined, US Treasuries instead oscillated upward, eventually closing near the day's high, forming a V-shaped reversal.
This market movement is quite interesting. The initial drop in US Treasuries was due to the CPI month-on-month exceeding expectations, which reignited market concerns about the Fed raising interest rates again soon. But the subsequent rise was more likely due to a flight-to-safety effect (i.e., the safe-haven attribute of US Treasuries returning). This also reflects the market's overall acceptance of the current yield levels (combined with recent US Treasury auction results, it is evident that primary market demand for US Treasuries is significantly improving).
The midterm election period is approaching, during which the US stock market is unlikely to perform well. Instead, AI hardware stocks are facing adjustment pressure after continuous declines, so funds are flowing into US Treasuries. Whether the Fed continues to raise rates in the short term or not will not change this capital flight to safety.
Finally, there is, of course, another possibility: when the global economy faces a recession, stock prices fall and bond prices rise, which is normal. However, there is currently insufficient evidence for this assumption (the high CPI itself is one indication of an overheating economy). #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 近200百万美元单日回流，牛市要回来了？先别急着庆祝——$BTC 报83,314美元，$ETH 2,496美元，$SOL 106.61美元，三大主流资产没有一只走出全面爆发行情。ETF当日数据看似亮眼：$BTC 净流入1.76亿美元，$ETH 净流入2,480万美元，$SOL 则小幅净流出；但把镜头拉长到7天，三者仍共同承压。这就是当前最值得咀嚼的矛盾：ETF资金在进，$BTC 价格却在退。 这个背离本身就是答案。单日资金回流从来不等于趋势反转，它更像是一次喘息，而非号角。真正决定方向的，是资金能否形成持续共振，而不是某一天的数字好看。 结构上，$BTC 的抗跌性明显强于$ETH 与$SOL，后两者弹性更弱，说明资金尚未发起全面进攻。这种分化透露的信号很直接：当前更像是下跌途中的休整，而非新趋势的起点。只有当$ETH 和$SOL 同步跟上，复苏才具备可信度；仅靠$BTC 独涨，只能定义为局部反弹。 今晚美国9月CPI数据公布，核心通胀超预期，美联储加息路径的分歧仍待消化。数据落地前，猜测谁会先拉盘没有意义；数据落地后，真正该盯的是三大币种能否同向放量。这才是验证资金共振的硬指标。 机会Gold seems to have stabilized, but Bitcoin has gone down. Why?
Bitcoin has already broken below the lower boundary of its consolidation range first, but we can see that except for Bitcoin, most other major coins have basically broken below their recent consolidation ranges.
So Bitcoin has more followers, continuously moving down in this downtrend torrent. Although Bitcoin is still relatively strong compared to other major coins and remains high around 80,000, when all major coins roll down along with the Nasdaq, it also can't hold up.
Also, have you noticed that since the Nasdaq 100 index runs around the clock, Bitcoin and gold now tend to follow the Nasdaq 100 more closely, and have less relation to the S&P so far. The US index I watch the most is the Nasdaq 100.
Gold still has some support from national reserve funds and institutional capital, but personally, I feel that without a substantial reversal candlestick, this support will also face selling pressure, especially if the Nasdaq index continues to probe lower. $XAU $ETH 我死磕多头，不做空。
2412，红盘，振幅才0.24%，盘面死得像一潭水。但越安静，越像有人在底下悄悄捡筹码。从2725砸下来，2580、2540两次反抽全没站住，MA30压在2467，结构确实难看——这点我不装。可2400这个位置，被踩了无数次，每次都拉回来，一次没真破。今天最低2401.37，又贴着收住。真要崩，不会每次都刚好停在这儿。
急杀快、拉回也快，说明抛压在宣泄，不是有人在持续倒货。接盘的不是散户，散户没那个耐心在同一个价位反复挂单。
我的打法：2400-2408分批进，插针到2385补一笔，仓位砍半，杠杆压低。不追高，不因为一根大阳线脑子发热。止损2372，破位立刻走，不扛、不摊平——以前死扛到爆仓的教训，够我记一辈子。
止盈分三段：2440走三分之一，那是前面急杀的密集区；2467再走三分之一，MA30那道坎看K线脸色；剩下留到2510，上去了算市场赏饭。
反弹是诱多？可能。但我宁愿在支撑位小亏止损，也不愿破位追空被拉回来扇耳光。方向认多，节奏认慢。昨天瑶瑶选择在$ETH 2480选择抄底真是一个天大的错误，但是还好也是及时止损了，2450止损，损失将近2000u😡😡
9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何 ？
美债：通胀爆表，美债抛售，收益率直线上升！美元走强就代表着股市、币圈、黄金全部承压，高利率的阴影重新压在市场头上，只要收益率居高不下，市场很难有大反弹
原油：这次通胀很大部分就是油价推上去的，一边高通胀强化加息（利空油价），另一边中东地缘冲突 托住油价，走出矛盾行情，短期维持高位震荡，地缘才是原油的主要变量
币圈这边：加息预期升高，ETH从2523直线下跌到2411！、BTC8400暴跌到8151，山寨就更不用说了跌的更猛，近期千万不要选择去抄底！#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 #奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #US CPI Surpasses Expectations to 3.7%, PPI Faces Another Test Tonight
CPI exceeding expectations triggers a sharp drop, decline logic + defensive support levels
Core reasons for the decline
1. US September CPI and core CPI both exceeded expectations, raising rate hike expectations and pushing US Treasury yields higher, putting pressure on the valuation of non-yielding crypto assets;
2. BTC and ETH spot ETFs continue to see net outflows, institutional funds are already withdrawing, lacking buying support;
3. The decline triggered a chain of leveraged liquidations, with forced sell-offs accelerating the drop;
4. ZEC is a privacy small-cap coin; when risk appetite declines, funds prioritize abandoning thematic altcoins, amplifying the drop.
Defense support by coin (First defense = short-term first lifeline, breaking it tends to accelerate the decline; Second defense = strong support, dense multi-chip area)
✅ BTC Bitcoin
• Short-term first defense: 81500, the first line of defense for short-term bulls; holding here will lead to consolidation and bottoming;
• Key strong defense: 80000 (round number + dense options support)
• After breaking 80000, the next target range: 77000-78000, selling pressure will significantly increase
✅ ETH Ethereum (more elastic, falls faster)
• Short-term first defense: 2400
• Key strong defense: 2300, this is a previous chip concentration area
• Breaking below 2300, look down to around 2180, where DeFi staking and leveraged positions are concentrated and prone to liquidation
$BTC $ETH $ZEC TSMC's Q3 revenue hits a record high, what are the key points to watch in the earnings night?
TSMC will release its full Q3 earnings report and hold a briefing on October 15. According to the disclosed monthly data, Q3 revenue is about NT$1.49 trillion, a year-on-year surge of 50%, directly setting a new historical revenue record. The company previously guided a Q3 gross margin of 65%-67%.
With revenue data already confirmed, market focus shifts to whether profits can be realized simultaneously. The core driver of this high growth is AI computing demand; orders for Nvidia chips, ASICs, and CoWoS advanced packaging remain robust, serving as the main engine driving performance.
Notably, despite the record-high revenue, TSM and xTSM stocks have already seen a pullback, as capital is preemptively trading on earnings expectations. If gross margin falls short of expectations, a sell-off triggered by "good news being priced in turning into bad news" could occur.
Tonight's earnings focus will be on gross margin, capital expenditures, and the outlook for subsequent AI orders. The high AI market sentiment remains, but the stock price has already priced in most of the positives in the short term. Avoid blindly chasing the rally and be especially cautious of volatility risks after the good news is realized.
#TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profitability performance to be revealed Today $BTC is hovering around 81,500, grinding close to the 50-day moving average (about 81,100-81,200).
The four bear-to-bull turning points you mentioned do look quite similar: after breaking above the 50-day moving average, it almost always comes back to test it around 40-50 days later, with a roughly 30% gain during that period. History loves to repeat this script.
But the key difference comes afterward: • In 2015 and 2019, after the retest, it didn’t break below and then directly surged at least 50%; • In 2023, it first broke below, scared some people, then quickly recovered, and still went on to gain 50%.
At this position now, it depends on whether it wants to do the “elegant retest” like the first two cases or the “scare first then recover” version like 2023.
Recently, it dropped from 84,000-86,000, just enough to test the 50-day moving average, then bounced back. The short-term RSI is around 46, neither hot nor cold, and the short moving averages are still pressing down, a bit grinding. But the mid-term structure remains intact, with the 50-day still above the 200-day, so the overall trend is not broken.
Currently, it looks more like the “standard retest script is playing out” rather than the trend turning bearish. Whether it rallies directly or breaks down first then recovers, history offers two possibilities, and the market hasn’t chosen a side yet.
Don’t rush to open positions betting on the script; first see if it can stabilize around here. If it stabilizes, then look up to 84,000-85,000; if it breaks, then consider if it’s the 2023 pattern. This grinding here is the most patience-testing, but historically, after the grind, there’s often a good move.
(The above is pure speculation and does not constitute any advice; don’t blame me if you lose money.)