Orbit Post Sitemap
"Net profit +69% beats expectations, but stock price fell 9% in advance: Is the AI fire out?"
Yesterday I said, "If you want to know what TSMC will say in advance, look at ASML first." Today the results are in: Q3 net profit of 763.1 billion TWD, up 68.7% year-on-year, beating expectations; gross margin 66.4%, higher than the midpoint of guidance, the 2nm ramp diluted 3-4 points but did not suppress it; 2nm already accounts for 8% of wafer revenue, advanced processes 79%. ASML raised its full-year guidance for the third time this week, confirming across the industry chain — the AI fire is not out.
But the stock price has pulled back 9% from the early October high. The market is not worried about Q3, but about Q4 guidance and the $60+ billion capital expenditure in 2026: whether AI spending can be recouped is the real test.
Mapping to the crypto world: today BTC 80800, ETH 2410 fell due to macro (core CPI beating expectations), not fundamentals. Good companies vs tight monetary policy, a tug of war. Until macro eases, the AI narrative is distant water for crypto, unable to quench immediate thirst.
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 The Korean stock market circuit breaker looks scary, but today there are actually two slightly positive signals. One is that the probability of a rate hike in October has dropped again, and the other is that both the long and short ends of the US Treasury yield curve are moving down. $BTC $ETH $SNDK
The biggest trouble for the US stock market before, besides the aging themes and the market starting to take earnings expectations seriously after valuations rose, was the liquidity competition among US stocks, US Treasuries, and corporate bonds. Now that US stocks have fallen, liquidity is instead being pushed into US Treasuries to take the load, relieving a lot of pressure on Treasuries. Gold is linked to interest rates and remains generally stable. As long as there is no bigger liquidity crisis, gold is very likely to hold up. Even if there is a short-term hit due to sudden liquidity drying up, central banks' gold purchases provide a floor, making it relatively safe and suitable as a low-risk bottom-fishing asset.
Tonight's PPI is very likely to continue yesterday's CPI trend. Even if it unexpectedly comes in below expectations and provides a positive signal, it will probably only trigger a small rebound and won't change the current downward trend. For this adjustment to truly stabilize, we still have to wait for the FOMC decision, plus positive factors like easing US-Iran relations. Be patient and wait. #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit a record high #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new focus #Tesla delivery exceeds expectations, profit recovery becomes a focus # TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Profit Hits Record High
Q3 results are indeed impressive: revenue rose 50.9% year-over-year, net profit increased by 68.7%, directly setting a new record high, all across the board exceeding expectations.
But interestingly, the stock price actually dropped nearly 2%. Why?
Because the market insiders don’t look in the rearview mirror. The monthly revenue data for Q3 had already leaked out almost completely, so everyone had guessed it—no surprises.
What really made investors hesitate are two points:
1. Gross margin is expected to decline. Q3 guidance is 65%-67%, lower than Q2’s 67.7%. Profitability is slightly loosening.
2. Q4 guidance and capital expenditures are the main focus. Now everyone is watching AI capacity expansion closely; if Q4 guidance is just "in line with expectations," then in the US stock market that basically means failing, so the stock must drop.
Plain summary:
You scored 99 points, but everyone already expected you to score 99, so no applause. Now everyone wants to see if you can score 100 next semester and how much you plan to spend on tutoring (capital expenditures).
The numbers are good numbers, but short-term sentiment focuses on "exceeding expectations" and "future guidance." Without seeing specific Q4 guidance, it’s normal for investors to exit first as a precaution.The original announcement is here
Now is not the market period for perp dex
At that time, aster had just launched a bunch of projects and expectations were very high
Now both the overall market and perp dex market are not good
Not issuing tokens is also a protection for users
It's just tough for those who purely burn fees to trade. $BTC $ETH
美联储这出戏，还没完！
市场风向变了！美国短期利率期货持续走弱，交易员甚至开始押注：到2027年底，美联储可能再加息三次。美元指数同步走强，市场对高利率的担忧正在升温。
背后的核心问题只有一个：通胀到底什么时候才能真正降下来？
能源价格上涨、核心通胀反复，再加上AI投资热潮带来的经济压力，都可能让美联储维持更紧的货币政策。
这对币圈意味着什么？美元走强、利率预期上升，资金风险偏好就可能下降，比特币和山寨币也会面临更大的压力。
记住，市场交易的是预期，而不是等美联储真正行动才反应。接下来重点盯紧通胀数据和美联储表态，降息预期一旦继续降温，币圈就别轻易忽视回调风险！
#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 On October 15, South Korea's KOSPI plunged 8%, triggering a circuit breaker.
Bitcoin fell below $81,000.
But on-chain data tells me a counterintuitive fact: the third sell-off was lighter than the first.
This is not the bottom. But it’s not a crash either.
On October 15, the US September CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year, higher than August's 3.4% and exceeding economists' expectations. Core CPI rose 2.6% year-over-year, also above expectations.
CME FedWatch data showed the market's probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in October surged from 22% before the data release to 53.7%.
Bitcoin fell below $82,000, once approaching the $80,000 mark intraday.
South Korea's KOSPI index plunged 8%, SK Hynix dropped over 11%, Samsung Electronics fell over 9%. Both KOSPI and KOSDAQ triggered circuit breakers, halting trading for 20 minutes. This was the tenth circuit breaker in the Korean stock market this year.
Nasdaq futures fell 1%, continuing the previous night's 2% decline.
Panic? Yes. But beneath the panic, on-chain data tells another story.
Bitcoin has tested the $81,000 bottom three times in October.
On October 9, 12, and 15 — the same level tested repeatedly.
Technically, $81,000 coincides with the 400-day moving average. Jack Yi, founder of Liquid Capital, pointed out that every time the price hits this level during a pullback, it quickly rebounds.
But what’s truly worth digging into is not the price, but the on-chain data.
Analyst Murphy presented a set of key data.
Looking at realized losses adjusted for on-chain entities:
Losses on October 12 were smaller than on October 9.
Although losses on October 15 expanded compared to the 12th, they were still lower than on the 9th.
Each of the three sell-offs has weakened in intensity.
Murphy interprets this as: October 9 was more like a concentrated exit of short-term price-sensitive holders. During the second dip, the market was cautious with weak selling willingness. The third drop was forced stop-losses of swing holders triggered by macro negative catalysts.
In plain terms: those who needed to run have already run in the first wave. The following two waves saw fewer people exiting.
4/ But don’t rush to call it the "bottom."
Murphy also shared a sobering statistic: the proportion of short-term holders in loss is currently about 31%, below the historical average of 42.7%.
What does this mean?
The clearing of positions may not be complete yet.
Historically, true market bottoms often coincide with the short-term holders’ loss ratio approaching or even surpassing the historical average. Now at 31%, it’s still some distance from 42.7%.
Simply put: not everyone is despairing yet. Some still hold onto the hope of a rebound if they wait a bit longer. These people represent potential future selling pressure.
The macro environment is also adding chaos.
US inflation remains above target, and market concerns about further Fed tightening are rising. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan bluntly said: "The global financial market environment is quite tough."
Crypto-related stocks are also under pressure: Coinbase down 4.9%, Circle down 5.6%, Strategy down 5.9%.
The US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded $150.5 million outflows on October 14, indicating institutional funds are unstable.
Market maker STS Digital pointed out that uncertainty is damaging market liquidity and weakening risk appetite across all asset classes.
Macro is pressuring, but on-chain structure is changing. These two forces are in a tug of war.
What to watch next?
Murphy provided a clear observation framework:
Key signal one: whether realized losses continue to converge. If the price holds near $81,000 and loss release gradually weakens, it indicates passive selling is decreasing and the phase of correction may be nearing its end.
Key signal two: if losses significantly expand again, it means the market still needs more thorough position turnover and the bottom is not yet reached.
Simply put: watch the next sell-off to see if the intensity continues to weaken or suddenly amplifies.
Three bottom tests, each sell-off weaker than the last.
But the 31% short-term holder loss ratio tells me: clearing is still ongoing, don’t rush to say "the bottom is here."
This is not the calm before the storm. The storm is not over yet.
Whether the $81,000 400-day moving average holds depends not on the candlestick, but on how many people are willing to hand over their positions at this level.
$BTC $SKHYNIX $SAMSUNG #KoreanStocksDownNearly8PercentIntraday,GlobalTechStocksUnderPressure 下午一点半，盘面继续跌，昨晚CPI后我说等插针爆完再动手，现在看插针确实还在半山腰
$BTC 跌破82000，最低摸到80168，现在81050附近，$ETH 更弱，从2537一路砸到2315，现在2359，$SOL 也跌破105，最低100.46，现在102.2
多空比是最关键的，SOL现在2.68，ETH 2.66，BTC 1.88，多头依然挤得不行。资金费率还是负的，多头扛单成本越来越高，价格跌了这么多，多头还没跑干净，这本身就是风险
持仓量也在降，大饼从25.8亿降到24亿，二饼从15亿降到13.5亿，SOL从3.37亿降到3.09亿，虽然盘中有回升，但整体是减仓的，主动买卖量上，卖出一直压着买入
我手上现在还是没单子，也不打算在这个位置去接，等这波踩踏真正爆完，盘面缩量横住了，再考虑用小仓位试错
下方几个位置先记着：大饼80000，丢了看78000，二饼2300，丢了看2200，SOL 100，丢了看95
你们是被爆了还是空仓看戏？
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验
#BTC现货ETF连续流出
#ETH触及2500美元后震荡 You were woken up this morning by a push notification about the KOSPI circuit breaker.
At noon, you saw the ChiNext Index drop 4%.
You watched BTC repeatedly test 81,000.
You think these are three separate events?
Wrong. They are the same event.
The South Korean KOSPI index plunged 8% intraday, closing at 5527.29 points. SK Hynix fell over 11%, Samsung Electronics dropped more than 9%. The Korea Exchange triggered the circuit breaker on KOSDAQ, suspending trading for 20 minutes.
The Nikkei 225 simultaneously fell 5%. Asia’s semiconductor sector was bloodied.
What was the trigger? The night before, US chip stocks had already collapsed. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed down 4.3%, marking six consecutive days of decline—the longest losing streak since May 2025. Dell Technologies dropped over 11%, Oracle plunged 8.8%, Nvidia and Meta fell 3%, Coreweave plummeted over 15%.
Asia was just taking over the baton. US stocks fell first, Asia followed—this is the transmission rhythm of the global semiconductor supply chain.
European stocks opened under pressure, led by the semiconductor sector. The STOXX 600 Technology Index hit a six-week low. ASML fell 3.3%, STMicroelectronics and Infineon each dropped 5%, ASM International declined 6.3%.
China’s A-shares were equally brutal—the ChiNext Index dropped over 4%, the Shanghai Composite fell 2.42%, and nearly 5,200 stocks across Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing declined. Computing hardware, semiconductor chips, coal, and oil & gas sectors all plunged.
From Seoul to Shanghai to Amsterdam, the same sector, the same direction.
The Nasdaq fell 1.88%, down over 510 points, marking the largest single-day drop since July 23. The S&P 500 declined 1.11%.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed down 4.3%, marking the sixth consecutive trading day of decline. Nvidia, Broadcom, and Meta fell over 3%, Tesla dropped over 2%.
The only exception was Apple—up 0.5%, with a market cap surpassing $5 trillion, becoming the second company after Nvidia to break the $5 trillion mark. But one company can’t carry the whole street.
The underlying logic behind the market-wide selloff that day is hidden in the US September CPI data released on October 14.
Year-over-year 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%. Core CPI year-over-year 2.6%, also above expectations. Month-over-month 0.6%, one of the largest monthly increases this year.
Gasoline prices rose 9.1% month-over-month, fuel prices up 15.3%, service prices increased 0.4%. Real average hourly earnings declined 0.7% year-over-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline.
Once the data was released, traders’ bets on a Fed rate hike in October surged from 22% before the data to about 40%. The 10-year US Treasury yield spiked intraday to 5.3272%, and the 2-year yield rose to a two-week high.
Boston Fed President Collins stated directly: "I currently expect a modest rate hike before year-end is appropriate."
Inflation hasn’t dropped. Rate hikes aren’t over. Global risk-free rates are being repriced.
Brent crude oil was at $104.67 per barrel, WTI at $94.07 per barrel. WTI had just hit a three-week high the previous day due to Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities and Iran announcing new tactics deployed in the Strait of Hormuz.
High oil prices → stubborn inflation → rising rate hike expectations → bond market selloff → pressure on risk assets. This chain has repeatedly played out over the past two months.
Bitcoin has been oscillating near $81,000, marking the third test of the same support zone since October—on October 9, 12, and 15.
But one easily overlooked detail: on-chain entity-adjusted realized losses show that the scale of losses during these three dips is decreasing. October 12 was less than October 9, and although October 15’s losses expanded compared to October 12, they were still below October 9.
Analyst Murphy’s judgment is that the current situation is closer to a "swing market" gradually clearing out rather than a full-blown panic selloff. However, short-term holders’ loss ratio is only about 31%, below the historical average of 42.7%—indicating that chip clearing may not be sufficient yet.
ETF data is also not optimistic. Yesterday, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $261 million, Ethereum ETFs net outflows of $129.5 million. BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC had net outflows of $110 million and $153 million respectively, and Ethereum’s ETHA had net outflows of $110 million.
Institutions are withdrawing. At least in the short term.
On October 15, 2026, from Seoul’s circuit breaker to Wall Street’s plunge to on-chain bottom testing, global risk assets resonated on the same day under the same logic.
This is not a problem of any single market.
Seoul fell because semiconductor valuations were too high. Wall Street fell due to repricing of rate hike expectations. BTC fell because of tightening liquidity.
But they all point to the same source: inflation is not dead, and the era of cheap money has not returned.
$BTC $ETH $SKHY #韩股盘中跌近8%，全球科技股集体承压 In the past 3 days, Bitcoin has been pressured down from above $83,000 to around $81,000–$82,000, with a 24-hour drop of about 2%–3%. This is not simply a technical correction; after the US September CPI exceeded expectations, the market's expectations for a Fed rate hike in October have resurfaced, leading to a repricing of liquidity-sensitive assets. What should be watched now is not "whether it will break $80,000," but whether ETF fund flows can turn positive again, and whether $81,000 can hold before the Fed meeting on October 27–28. What happened in the past 3 days: - Price range shifted downward: On October 13, BTC fluctuated between $81,800 and $84,300; on October 14, it further dipped near $81,000; on October 15, it remained weakly consolidated around $81,000–$82,000. - Leveraged long positions were liquidated: After the CPI data release, the market saw long liquidations exceeding $200 million, with intraday lows approaching $80,800–$81,300. - ETF fund flows were weak: As of October 14, the October spot Bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of about $451 million; for the week ending October 9, Bitcoin ETFs had a net outflow of about $681 million. - Increased sensitivity due to whale address activity: A whale wallet dormant for years transferred about 4,582 BTC; although this does not necessarily mean immediate selling, it heightens market vigilance toward potential selling pressure. Three key signals 1. Macro pressure outweighs narrative in the short term $BTC 观察：大佬喊话牛市回调，别急着接飞刀
BTC砸穿81000，$ETH ETH跌到2360，恐慌情绪拉满
易理华这时候发声，说现在只需关心哪里抄底，参考2023年，反弹会快到让犹豫的人上不了车。
逻辑上说得通，牛市多急跌，V型反转最容易甩人下车。
但现实很骨感，当前宏观环境完全不同，CPI压顶、降息落空、AI泡沫摇摇欲坠，资金面根本没活水
Hayes赌的是崩盘后的救市，易理华赌的是牛市回调，这两套剧本完全不在一个频道。
别被大佬的抄底论冲昏头，大雾还没散，飞刀还在天上，盲目冲进去大概率要在半山腰站岗。 **Risk of TSLA missing profit (EPS)
- Although more cars are sold thanks to discount policies and 0% preferential loan packages in China and Europe, the actual amount received per car is lower.
- Huge R&D costs poured into developing Robotaxi (Cybercab), the FSD network, and supercomputers continue to erode the company's net profit. In the previous quarter (Q2/2026), Tesla also faced a paradox: revenue exceeded expectations but EPS "lagged" by 34% compared to forecasts.
#TeslaQ3ProfitAndMargins $ETH Watch: Hayes Bets on AI Crash Bailout, This Move Is Too Counterintuitive
Arthur Hayes' logic is very tricky; he doesn't bet on when the AI bubble will burst, but directly bets on the "trillions in bailout" after it bursts.
Once the Federal Reserve is forced to flood the market with liquidity, BTC and ETH, as risk assets, will naturally rise.
Your judgment is very accurate; AI has been booming for a whole half year, and the bubble is indeed frighteningly large.
US tech stocks and South Korean semiconductors have already started a sharp correction, with signals of valuation adjustments growing stronger.
But in the short term, this is a script of breaking down before rebuilding. If AI really crashes now, cryptocurrencies won't be able to escape.
$BTC just broke below 81,000, ETH plunged to 2,360, the market is in chaos.
Before the real bailout funds land, there will inevitably be indiscriminate panic stampedes.
Hayes is betting on the "liquidity flood after the crisis," while what we are experiencing now is the drought before the flood.
Don't be dazzled by the big players' long-term thinking; the flying knife of this drop hasn't landed yet.
Endure the current cold winter first, then think about the liquidity injection. $OKB What is the difference between OKX exchange's stock tokenization and Binance's stock tokenization? Which one is more compliant?
Conclusion first: They are not the same kind of "stock tokenization," and compliance levels cannot be simply ranked—
Binance bStocks: Already launched, operating under the ADGM (Abu Dhabi) offshore regulatory framework, mature but "non-U.S. domestic, no voting rights"
OKX stock tokens: Two parts—existing xStocks are third-party tracking certificates; the newly launched OKXICE is filed with the SEC under the "innovation exemption" together with ICE, the parent company of NYSE, attempting to enter the U.S. domestic compliance channel but not yet officially operational
Let's break it down.
1. Binance bStocks: ADGM offshore licensed path
Issuer: BTech Holdings (Binance-affiliated SPV), registered in ADGM
Regulatory basis: ADGM FSRA Official List + approved prospectus for each product
Underlying asset: 1:1 corresponding real U.S. stocks, held by regulated custodians
On-chain form: BEP-20, can be withdrawn to BNB Chain self-custody
Shareholder rights: No voting rights, not on company shareholder register; dividends generally auto-reinvested rather than paid in cash
Open to: Non-U.S. users, not open to U.S. retail investors
Partners: Real stock accounts connected to Alpaca Securities (U.S. FINRA broker) for execution and clearing
Binance also has "Binance Stocks" which are real U.S. stock trades (held by Alpaca), not tokenized; bStocks are the on-chain token products.
Compliance positioning: Follows "offshore financial center formal licensing + prospectus" route, not a rogue approach, but jurisdiction is ADGM rather than U.S. SEC; legal nature is "financial instrument certificate" not direct equity.
2. OKX: Existing xStocks + new OKXICE two lines
1) Existing unified tokenized stocks (xStocks)
Underlying issuers mostly Backed Finance (Swiss system)
OKX is only distributor/trading venue, not issuer
Legal nature mostly tracker certificates / debt instruments, no voting rights
On-chain runs on Solana, X Layer, supports deposit/withdrawal
Also not open to U.S. users
This line is basically the same as Binance bStocks: both are "price-tracking tokens + offshore issuers."
2) OKXICE (SEC filing 2026-10)
Joint venture: OKX + Intercontinental Exchange ICE (NYSE parent), 50/50
Regulatory framework: SEC 2026-09 "innovation exemption" (5-year temporary exemption)
Underlying structure: Registered broker 1:1 holds real stocks, tokens correspond to shareholder economic rights + voting rights
Trading mechanism: Permissioned Uniswap v4 pool on XLayer, stablecoin settlement, requires KYC/AML
Restrictions:
Issuer 30-day objection right (Cerebras has objected)
Tier1 target limit 75 stocks, single stock trade volume capped at 0.25%
If original stock is suspended, token is suspended simultaneously
Status: Notified SEC, not yet officially launched
Compliance positioning: Attempts to bring "third-party custodied tokenization" into U.S. domestic regulatory sandbox, shareholder rights completeness higher than bStocks, but relies on 5-year temporary exemption with very strict quotas.
3. Core differences comparison
Dimension
Binance bStocks
OKX existing xStocks
OKXICE (filing)
Issuer
BTech (ADGM)
Backed and others third-party
"Tokenizer" + ICE
Regulatory jurisdiction
ADGM FSRA
Switzerland/Jersey offshore
U.S. SEC innovation exemption
Licensed product?
Yes (ADGM list)
Depends on issuer
TSV under exemption framework
Voting rights
No
No
Yes (claimed in documents)
Dividends
Reinvestment
Balance increase/USDT
Cash dividends
Chain
BNB Chain
Solana/XLayer
XLayer
U.S. users
Not supported
Not supported
Target supported (restricted)
Operational status
Launched
Launched
Not launched
4. Which is "more compliant"? Answer by scenario
Looking at "currently launched + regulatory verifiable" → Binance bStocks more stable: ADGM official list verifiable, prospectus public, fixed product structure.
Looking at "shareholder rights completeness" → OKXICE plan more compliant: promises dividends + voting + 1:1 underlying shares, designed per SEC exemption conditions.
Looking at "U.S. domestic legality" → OKXICE path closer, but only 5-year temporary exemption, not permanent legislation; Binance bStocks clearly avoid U.S.
Looking at "risk points":
bStocks risk = you are not a shareholder, rely on BTech for redemption, ADGM jurisdiction execution far from user's home country
OKXICE risk = not yet operational, very small quota, issuer can veto, post-2031 framework unknown
Existing xStocks on both sides are "tracking certificates," don't take them literally.
One-sentence summary
Binance bStocks = offshore ADGM licensed certificates (mature, no voting rights);
OKX existing = similar third-party tracking tokens as Binance;
OKXICE = backed by ICE, using SEC innovation exemption for "quasi-U.S. stock shareholder" plan, bigger compliance ambition but not yet launched.# TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Earnings Hit Record High
The most feared voices during earnings season are of two kinds: one that blows things up to the sky, and one that drags them down to the ground. This Q3 report from TSMC, however, feels more like a halftime whistle: not to celebrate wildly, but to remind you to look up and see which way the wind is blowing.📈
Net profit exceeding expectations and earnings hitting a record high are very encouraging words, but the real value lies in the underlying structure. The fire of AI is not burning concepts, but capacity, yield, and delivery. TSMC just happens to stand at the intersection of three roads: advanced process technology, advanced packaging, and major customer orders. While others are still saying "we also value AI," TSMC is already collecting AI's electricity fees, tolls, and bridge fees.🧱
Many people easily misunderstand one point: they think the chip cycle is over and that recovery depends on phones. Now it’s more like the old business hasn’t been lost, and a new engine has been ignited. High-performance computing, AI accelerators, and data centers are expanding the table for advanced process technology; advanced packaging is in tight supply, turning "can do" into "can deliver on time," which is the source of profit elasticity. Plus, its pricing discipline has always been strict; when the market is good, it doesn’t take orders submissively, so the profit statement looks better than the revenue statement.
The second misunderstanding is treating exceeding expectations as the end point. Exceeding expectations only means the past three quarters have outperformed market guesses; the next quarter depends on how capital expenditures are spent, whether overseas factories ramp up smoothly, and whether major customers’ inventories start to pile up again. Especially in the AI chain, there’s an old problem: when orders heat up, the whole industry gets carried away together, and a slight turn can lead to a fierce correction.$APR is bearish, current price 0.05, with 8 days left until the cliff unlock on 10-23. After one more day, we enter the critical last 7 days to watch closely. We backtested events from 2024-2026 where unlock volume exceeded 10% of circulation; about three-quarters underperformed the market in the week before unlock, with consistent direction across two sample periods. After the unlock day, there is no stable direction, so pressure is concentrated before the unlock, not on the day itself. Currently, the market is very thin, with trading volume and contract open interest near zero, and a daily amplitude of 31.3%. Even a small sell order can create a long wick. Long positions worth $250,000 were liquidated in 24 hours, while shorts only $20,000; funds taking longs are still being cleared. The RSI at 27 looks low, but the supply pressure from the unlock is ahead, and the weak zone can last a long time; oversold conditions cannot support a decent rebound. In the last week, watch two things: whether the intraday low of 0.0441 will be broken, and whether volume can pick up during a rebound. If $APR recovers above 0.0579 and holds during this week, the bearish view is invalidated and turns bullish. #TSMCQ3RecordProfit TSMC's revenue may have exceeded expectations, so what will be tested at the earnings conference on Thursday?
In fact, TSMC's third-quarter revenue was announced some time ago, about $46.7 billion, which is higher than the company's forecast range of $44.6 to $45.8 billion. The earnings conference on Thursday will not test the revenue, but rather the costs behind this revenue.
The first test is the gross profit margin. The guidance for the third quarter is between 65% and 67%, with an average of 66%, which is 1.7 percentage points lower than the 67.7% in the second quarter,#TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Profit Hits Record High
$TSM
TSMC's Q3 earnings report exceeded expectations: revenue of 989.92 billion TWD (approximately 33.1 billion USD), up 30.3% year-over-year; net profit of 452.3 billion TWD, up 39.1% year-over-year; gross margin of 59.5%. 2nm mass production accounts for 8% of wafer revenue, advanced processes of 7nm and below account for 79%; HPC accounts for 57%, supported by AI demand. Full-year USD revenue growth forecast revised up to 34%~36%, capital expenditure increased to 40~42 billion USD.
However, after the earnings report, TSM's US stock fell 1.56%, xTSM fell 1.53%. Reasons: first, the stock price hit a new high before the report, profit-taking after positive news; second, tensions in US-China trade suppress sentiment; third, the market focuses more on Q4 guidance and capital expenditure details, with doubts about the sustainability of AI demand; fourth, geopolitical risk premium.
Follow-up focus: Q4 revenue guidance of 32.2~33.4 billion USD, gross margin 59%~61%; most institutions maintain buy ratings with high target prices, but short-term trading is between expectation fulfillment and macro uncertainty. Overall fundamentals remain strong, the stock price pullback is not due to fundamental deterioration, key factors are Q4 guidance and AI demand sustainability.$SOL is now around 102. From the recent high above 116, it has dropped about 14%. To buy spot, you need to clarify two things first: how deep these kinds of pullbacks usually go, and where there is actually volume.
The depth of pullbacks has been statistically analyzed. In the past two years, the median maximum drop within one month after SOL falls from a 60-day high is about 16%. Based on this median, this pullback is still a bit short, corresponding roughly to the 96 to 98 range.
This range is not an isolated number. In September, there were three low points around there, and the 90-day moving average is also near 96 now. The median pullback, previous lows, and the moving average all point to the same zone.
This area is where you can consider buying the first batch during this pullback. If it falls to this level, then consider buying; if it doesn't, then wait—no need to chase.
Looking further down, volume concentration matters. In the past six months, the thickest turnover range was between 84 and 86, with a trading volume around $5.5 billion. Another range is between 74 and 76, which was built up in July. Volume near 102 is thin now, so buying here is like buying in mid-air.
The probability is not bad either. In the past two years, there have been over 200 days when the price dropped more than 15% in a month. The median change in the following month was about a 6% rise, with a 60% chance of going up, though the worst case saw a 30% drop.
So these two ranges are key: 96 to 98 is the first batch, 84 to 86 is the next batch. Don't act in between; if it breaks below 74, stop buying and wait for volume to build up again before making a move.#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高
台积电Q3财报再次交上超预期答卷：营收同比增长50.9%至1.49万亿新台币，净利润同比增长68.7%至7631亿新台币，双双创下历史新高。先进制程占比已达79%，2nm贡献8%晶圆营收，AI需求持续成为最强支撑。
但市场反应却相对冷静，相关标的小幅回调。原因很简单——Q3强劲已是预期内，真正决定后续走势的是Q4营收指引和资本开支态度。若指引仅符合预期，市场可能选择兑现；若毛利率指引低于Q2的67.7%，以及资本开支是否继续上调，将成为关键观察点。
台积电当下仍是全球半导体确定性最高的标的，但确定性越高，定价也越贵。接下来每一次指引，都会被市场用放大镜审视。#TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Profit Hits Record High
Revenue of 1.49 trillion is just the obvious part; watch these three things in Thursday's earnings report
TSMC's Q3 revenue was 1.49 trillion New Taiwan Dollars, up 50% year-over-year, a record high — but this was already known, announced last week. The real highlights of the October 15 earnings report are these three points.
First, gross margin. Guidance is 65%-67%, while Q2 was 67.7%. Morgan Stanley directly estimates 67.5%, and the market is fully betting on the high end. Whether high utilization of N3/N5 and AI premium can offset the 2nm ramp-up and overseas factory dilution depends on this figure.
Second, full-year guidance. Morgan Stanley expects an upward revision from "over 40%" to mid-40%, with Q4 USD revenue up 11% quarter-over-quarter. Whether AI orders show marginal weakening will be revealed in the earnings call.
Third, 2027 capital expenditure. Goldman Sachs has already raised it to $85 billion. If they dare to increase it further, it shows confidence in AI orders; if not, it signals demand has peaked.
Another exciting data point: the options market is betting on a ±5% stock price swing after the earnings, while the average of the past four times was only 2.87%. Expectations are already maxed out, and at this level, the biggest fear is "good news already priced in" — even if the numbers are good, a soft guidance comment can still crush the stock price.
One sentence for the crypto community: don't overweight AI-themed coins betting on the earnings report in advance. TSMC is a sentiment booster, not the main BTC storyline; the market still watches US Treasury yields and ETF fund flows. On Thursday morning, will you be waiting for the earnings call or waking up to see the results? 反弹一下就想追？先看看合约资金到底走没走。 你有没有发现，价格弹了，但大钱其实还在离场？ 我自己盯盘的时候最怕这种"看起来在涨"的错觉。BTC 24小时净流出6.89亿美元，一周26.24亿，30天累计61.44亿。只有1小时级别冒出来3324万净流入，这种短窗口根本改不了大周期的失血节奏。 ETH 更明显，24小时净流出9.9亿，一周25.24亿，30天68.01亿。2小时和4小时分别有7029万、5847万净流入，但12小时还是净流出4.01亿。这种结构说明什么？说明短线有资金在抢反弹，可中长线仓位还在撤。一旦资金费率转负或者多头拥挤度上来，挤压风险就会放大。 SOL 短周期有韧性，8小时净流入3501万，12小时2805万。但长周期数据不够，没法确认资金真的回来了。ZEC 24小时净流出1.39亿，一周3.64亿，短周期零星流入撑不起整体。 现在市场交易的其实是"降息预期+短线超跌反弹"的抢跑，而不是增量资金入场。BTC 和 ETH 的永续持仓如果继续降、资金费率维持中性偏负，那反弹更可能是空头回补而不是新多进场。山寨这边，SOL 的相对强势如果带动不了板块整体，资金偏好就还是防US September CPI exploded again! Crude oil and US Treasuries are "clashing," so where should our money go?
CPI exceeded expectations again, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%! Energy prices surged 5.2% in one month, with gasoline contributing more than half of the rise...
In other words, the "monster" of inflation hasn't been suppressed; instead, it has been "revived" with the help of the Middle East conflict 😂
Let's talk about US Treasuries first, this is the real "main event"!
According to the old script, when CPI spikes, US Treasuries should be sold off and yields should soar, right? But BlackRock did something big this week—they ended a six-year underweight in US Treasuries and turned to overweight short-term bonds.
The reason: yields are already at a 24-year high, with the 10-year at 5.25%, just the interest alone is very attractive. Citi was "dragged into the pit" and forced to change its stance 😂 from "no more rate hikes this year" to "one more hike in December"~
What about crude oil? The logic is even simpler: geopolitics is the biggest call option~
Gasoline rose 9.1%, diesel even more fiercely, up 67.7% year-to-date. The Strait of Hormuz is blocked, global oil and gas transport is "choked," as long as the Middle East remains unstable, oil prices won't come down. But on the flip side, high interest rates will suppress demand, so don't expect prices to double again~
What about the crypto world we care most about?
CZ once said a big truth, "AI is great, but it can't protect you from inflation, but $BTC can." $BTC $ETH $SOL #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 🚨 South Korean stock market flash crash! KOSPI plunges 7% triggering a circuit breaker, is the AI bubble accelerating its burst? 📉
On October 15, South Korea's KOSPI index plunged 7% due to intensified global AI chip sell-off, triggering a trading halt! The index hit a new low since late July, falling for 7 consecutive days (the longest decline in 2024). Although it still rose about 30% year-to-date, it has retraced about 39% from the June peak.
💥 The truth behind the plunge:
1️⃣ High interest rate pressure: US inflation exceeded expectations, raising market concerns about prolonged high interest rates, putting pressure on tech stock valuations.
2️⃣ AI faith shaken: Investors question AI investment returns, causing a global tech stock bubble burst.
3️⃣ Massive foreign capital withdrawal: Single-day sell-off of about 29 trillion KRW (approximately 2.15 billion USD), completely breaking the support level!
4️⃣ Weight drag backlash: Samsung Electronics fell 9%, SK Hynix dropped 11%, the high concentration of semiconductor giants triggered a stampede.
Global AI hardware trading is experiencing the darkest moment of "high interest rates + financing bottlenecks + profit-taking." South Korea has become the eye of the deleveraging storm, warning of risk transmission to peripheral markets!
Affected by $SKHYNIX, $SNDK has also been steadily declining, even last night's rebound was completely sold off. Can SanDisk turn the situation around tonight?
#闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ #LumentumQ1OpticalGrowth Altcoins feel like they've been forgotten in the corner? Friends show their holdings: BTC and ETH are floating profits, DOGE and PEPE have been red all the way. They can only joke to themselves, "Junk coins are like buying lottery tickets."
The market's logic loop for junk coins is very clear:
When BTC rises, funds are drained from altcoins; when BTC is sideways, no one dares to move; when BTC falls, panic first hits junk coins. In short, whether BTC rises, falls, or moves sideways, altcoins can't find a reason to go up.
Behind this is the issue of emotional pricing power. Funds are unwilling to bear uncertainty; junk coins feed on attention, sentiment, and marginal buying. Once that shrinks, the rebound is very short.
There is only one way to break the deadlock: BTC stabilizes, ETH follows, then risk appetite will overflow. The first to move will definitely be those with communities and narratives; junk coin rebounds usually lag behind.
But if BTC is sideways and ETH is weak, every altcoin pump is a window for selling, and structural differentiation is the most frustrating.
Don't guess when DOGE or PEPE will rise; watch if risk appetite can be delivered.
The spring for altcoins has never been something to wait for, it’s something that overflows. #Anthropic reports Q3 revenue rising to $16.8 billion and achieving profitability
Can large model providers really make big money by selling services?
Recently, Anthropic's Q3 financial report came out, with single-quarter revenue hitting $16.8 billion, a nearly 50% quarter-over-quarter surge, even achieving adjusted profitability and positive cash flow. These numbers are indeed impressive, giving a strong boost to the somewhat anxious AI market recently $Anthropic
However, from a business logic perspective, this precisely indicates that large models are accelerating toward polarization, with leading players starting to harvest profits through high retention of enterprise clients, while small and medium players are directly dragged down by high computing power costs.
Although the quarter-over-quarter growth rate shows signs of slowing, as long as the ecosystem barriers are built, the profit-making effect will spread throughout the entire industry chain.
Next, the AI arms race will shift from burning money to compete on scale to refined operations competing on profitability. As it challenges the highest-ever valuation IPO, upstream and downstream supply chains and computing infrastructure will usher in a new round of valuation reshaping.
$NVDA $MSFT $GOOGL
DYORBreaking down a popular prediction from last year: Ali Charts calculated a BTC bottom of 37,500 in October 2026 based on a cycle model. In reality, the July low was 57,000, 52% higher than the model, and now it's even 81,000. It's not that the model is useless; it's that ETFs and institutional entry have changed the rules of the game. Trying to mark the boat for the sword, but the boat has already been replaced.#NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins
Bullish on Netflix into Q3.
Guidance is 12% revenue growth and a 33.2% operating margin, up from 28.2% a year ago. Q2 margin already beat guidance, and Netflix usually guides conservatively, so I expect a small beat.
Ads are the upside surprise. Analysts cut Q3 ad estimates by 7.5% to ~$834M, so the bar is low. If Netflix confirms its ~$3B ad revenue target, the stock could rally.
Main risk: slowing growth and soft Q4 guidance.
Not financial advice. On the surface, it's all praise like "Big brother finally stopped being reckless," but the position structure actually tells a different story. Is the direction where real money is bet the same as the lively talk? Seeing Maji's set of positions, my first reaction wasn't to follow, but to be stunned for a moment. The total contracts amount to about 59.76 million USD, with a very clear stance: short BTC, short HYPE, long ETH. On the surface, it looks like a "steady big brother transformation," but breaking it down, three assets, three leverage levels, three profit and loss states—it's actually using derivatives structure to express a judgment on the rhythm, not simply bullish or bearish. First, BTC. 40x short, opened at 84070, liquidation at 108297, unrealized profit about 220,000 U, and collected 56,600 U in funding fees. This position is comfortable because the buffer is thick, the price is still far from liquidation, indicating it's not betting on a short-term crash, but more like hanging an attitude at a high level: as long as there is no effective breakout, the shorts will continue to collect fees. What the market is really trading here is "limited rebound height," not "imminent bear turn." Next, ETH. 25x long, opened at 2541, unrealized loss about 340,000 U, liquidation at 1616. This is the only long in the whole set and the one I care about most. It seems to say: if the market still has some breath left, I prefer to bet on ETH rather than BTC. The problem is, with unrealized loss plus leverage, the margin for error is not wide; if the market continues to weaken, this long will become the most fragile part of the portfolio. The most dramatic1500上方还在死扛多单？你不是在抄底，你是主力的“人肉燃料”！
市场从不缺“敢死队”，只缺清醒的明白人——当韩国股市触发熔断、海力士暴跌11%时，你的多单就是抛压最完美的“接盘侠”。
为什么暴跌？
看两张底牌：第一，KOSPI指数暴跌8%触发熔断，外资疯狂出逃，联动加密市场被抽血；第二，看爆仓地图，你心心念念的1500-1600上方，恰好是SNDK空头清算的密集区。主力拉高就是为了爆空头，爆完立刻反手砸盘，而你正是在这个节点追多，成了被收割的“燃料”。
解套思路：
RSI已跌至10.81严重超卖，但MACD死叉开口向下，盲目补仓是大忌。思路一：反抽1355-1370（布林下轨）时，果断减仓割肉，降低风险；思路二：若仓位重且没杠杆，别在1334割肉，等超跌反弹后的二次探底再离场。
昨天我们在1450精准布空，你在1500却逆势做多。
#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 $SNDK #Meta巨额AI投入进入回报检验期 High probability of returns exceeding expectations US September CPI year-on-year at 3.7% again exceeded expectations, with energy prices rising 5.2% in one month; gasoline contributed more than half of the increase, and diesel has surged 67.7% year-to-date. Inflation hasn't been suppressed; instead, it has become more stubborn with the boost from the Middle East situation.
The strange thing is US Treasuries. Normally, a CPI spike would lead to sell-offs, but BlackRock ended six years of underweighting and shifted to overweight short-term bonds, reasoning that the 10-year yield is already at a 24-year high, making the interest alone very attractive; Citibank also reversed its stance, changing from "no more rate hikes this year" to "one more hike needed in December."
Crude oil is supported by geopolitics; as long as the Middle East remains unstable, oil prices won't come down, but high interest rates will suppress demand, so don't expect a doubling. The total supply of Bitcoin is fixed at 21 million; as fiat currency keeps increasing and inflation data worsens, its scarcity narrative only becomes stronger.
$BTCOn the 13th, the BTC ETF still had a net inflow of 176 million, but as soon as the CPI was released, it immediately turned into an outflow of 150 million on 10/14. Institutions have no faith, only risk control lines. ETF flows are lagging indicators; using them as leading indicators makes it easy to get cut.In the past two days, there has been a noticeable increase in people talking about Paola on X Layer. The community mainly has two reasons:
1. From October 19 to 26, X Layer is holding a "Community Certified Token" trading competition with a prize pool of $50,000.
2. The community says its trading pair is a tokenized stock related to Pop Mart.
For the first point, I checked the official announcement. The original text states: The list of participating tokens will only be announced when the event goes live on October 19; tokens that have participated in previous trading competitions cannot participate again.
So "only Paola qualifies" is still community speculation; the official statement does not say this. The announcement also mentions that the community certification label is only a reference and does not represent a recommendation.
There is another detail that beginners might want to note.
Last night at 20:48, Wang Duanniao posted that he is optimistic about Paola (he also mentioned he holds it and is currently underwater). Looking back at the K-line, the buying volume started to increase 1-2 hours before his post.
I'm not saying who is right or wrong. Just a reminder: when you see a KOL's post, you are usually not among the earliest buyers.
I will wait for the official list on the 19th before deciding whether to participate. This does not constitute investment advice.
$SOL 山寨季指数62，不代表山寨集体起飞。
资金确实在从 $BTC 往外溢。
但溢出的量有限。
这个指标的逻辑：
取市值前50的山寨，看有多少跑赢了 $BTC。
62意味着刚过六成，真正全面启动得看85。
我的操作：
减了点 BTC，加了 $ETH 和 $ZEC 。
问题是，指数就停在62，75的门槛没迈过去。
吃到的教训：板块轮动只会惠及一部分标的。
那些被资金遗忘的，可以横到你怀疑人生。
贪婪指数63，说明市场情绪在升温。但情绪热不代表每个标的都被照顾到。
接下来大概率还是分化行情，强的更强，弱的继续躺平。#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #South Korean stocks fell nearly 8% intraday, global tech stocks collectively under pressure
The South Korean stock market took another heavy hit today, nearly dropping 8 points intraday. It's not just them; the global tech sector is feeling the pain too.
Simply put, it's the same old logic: semiconductor chips are the backbone of the Korean stock market. When expectations for memory chips change, the market just can't hold up.
On top of that, there have been multiple reports of security vulnerabilities on financial platforms and crypto trading platforms, with user information leaks. Regulators are tightening oversight and cracking down, which makes the market even more nervous.
Now, global tech stocks are like locusts on the same rope. The weakening of AI and memory sectors in the US market directly affects Korea and then spreads further. This kind of panic easily drags the crypto space down with it, putting more pressure on tech-related coins. $SKHYNIX
Don't rush to bottom-fish during this collective panic; declines often have momentum.
Until market sentiment stabilizes, watch more and act less. Don't assume a bigger drop means a bargain. $BTC $ETH
#US CPI unexpectedly rises to 3.7%, PPI faces another test tonight #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit a record high #TSMCOct15Earnings TSMC's revenue record was already known to the market before October 15. Treating the same fact as a sudden positive surprise on the day of the earnings report might be a step behind the rhythmThere is still a large dense area of long liquidations below $BTC — before a real rebound, the price is likely to first sweep through this liquidity.
What happens after the sweep? The liquidity map will clearly shift upward. If the price returns near the high of the range, the short liquidation amount will reach about $7 billion. This is the magnet attracting the price upward.
A short-term pullback is still possible, but I have already positioned myself, expecting these dense liquidation areas above to be touched within the next 1–2 weeks. As long as this last long liquidation area is cleared, the path of least resistance is upward. $ETH $BTC $SOL On a Thursday afternoon when the market is crashing like this, Standard Chartered Bank opened a door and started trading Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Bitcoin is now at 80584, down again.
Three years ago, this was unimaginable.
Back then, when banks touched the crypto space, regulatory warnings arrived before business did. Now, a globally systemically important bank directly puts BTC and ETH on the counter to sell to clients.
In contrast to the market, Bitcoin has dropped three times in three days, losing 80168, Ethereum lost 2400, retail investors are fleeing, and liquidations make headlines daily.
In the industry, custody regulations are loosening, Standard Chartered is opening doors, and tokenized US Treasuries have entered the repo market. One side is crying, the other is building.
I'm not saying now is the time to bottom-fish, don’t misunderstand. What I mean is that price declines and infrastructure building have always been two separate lines. When prices fell 85% in 2018, custody licenses were being approved. When Luna collapsed in 2022, spot ETFs were under review. The pipelines quietly built during every bear market are the gateways to the next bull market. It’s always like this: the coldest times are the busiest.
Banks opening doors doesn’t mean prices will rise tomorrow, but once the door is open, it won’t close. Price is the weather; infrastructure is the climate. Weather changes weekly, climate changes every decade, and we all live in this climate.
What do you think, now that Standard Chartered has opened this door, will other banks follow?
#StandardCharteredOpensBTCandETHTrading, BankCryptoBusinessExpansion $BTC $ETH $ZEC Conclusion first: This is just a pullback after a rapid rise, not a problem with the privacy narrative. ZEC dropped from $1,227 yesterday to a low of $1,124, closing at $1,147, down 6.48% for the day, with a trading volume of $62.5 million. Interestingly, the day before yesterday it was the top gainer (+8.3%), but today it became the worst performer in the Top 10. This sharp switch from "leading gains to leading losses" reflects the high Beta characteristic of the privacy leader. Looking at the structure: spot price is $1,147, perpetual contracts are aligned with no de-peg. Open interest is about $119.5 million, one of the largest in the Top 10; funding rate is +0.01% (reaching the upper limit). Note this combination—price fell 6.5%, but the funding rate is still at the upper limit, indicating heavy long leverage. Contract dominance plus maxed funding rate means its volatility will be amplified: sharp rises and sharp falls. Looking at the position: currently $1,147, below the 7-day moving average ($1,208) and 14-day moving average ($1,253), but still above the 60-day moving average ($1,141). The 14-day high is $1,412, and the 14-day low is $1,112. In other words, it is currently sitting on the 60-day moving average, with the next support at the previous low of $1,112. Market cap is $19.5 billion, ranked 10th. The logic for ZEC remains unchanged: privacy demand returning plus oversold recovery. The 8.3% rise the day before yesterday was a recovery, and today's 6.5% drop is due to CPI drag + Honestly, Ethereum's sharp drop this morning was really intense.
The entire September gains have been wiped out, hitting a low of 2313!
Although it overshot the recent dip I was watching, I only started moving south with my positions after the National Day holiday, when the price had already fallen from the highs to 2545.
No choice, it's a bit disappointing, but it's best to take profits when you can, especially since there's still 150 centimeters.#PalantirQ3Valuation 老规矩，重要数据发布后第二天的市场走向，往往最具参考价值。
昨天 CPI 数据超预期，加密、美股、黄金应声普遍下跌。今天加密延续弱势，美股大概率承压，但有意思的是——黄金回升了。
按照传统的线性逻辑： CPI 超预期 ➡️ 加息概率升高 ➡️ 黄金作为无息资产下跌。
但今天的黄金上涨，折射出一个更深层的信号：市场已经开始在交易衰退预期了。
当避险属性压倒了无息成本的逻辑，盘面的每一次背离，都在提前对冲我们忽视的风险。
$XAU The rebound in South Korean chip stocks didn't hold, and I'm more curious about where the money for the buy-in is coming from.
On October 14, the KOSPI rose about 2.6% in early trading but closed with a slight decline. In a report by Aju Press, a researcher from Daishin Securities offered an explanation worth verifying: the previous buybacks by Samsung and SK Hynix absorbed some of the foreign capital selling; after the buyback plans ended, similar selling pressure is more likely to directly impact the stock price.
Of course, this isn't the only reason for the day's pullback and can't explain all the trading in one sentence. But it shifts the question from "Does everyone still believe in AI?" back to who is continuously buying. Company buybacks, long-term investors adding positions, and short-term buying after sharp drops all have different durations of sustainability.
Announcing restored confidence during the morning rally is a bit premature. Prices are indeed moving up. But whether this money is willing to stay until the next earnings report still depends on subsequent trading; we can't decide that based on that one stretch of gains.
Looking ahead to whether semiconductor buying can continue, I will track buyback plans alongside net foreign buying and selling. We also need to see if the gains hold after positive news comes out. Industry judgments can take a long time to materialize, but the funds providing support might stop first. The process from rebound to narrowing yesterday is frustrating because even if the long-term direction is right, it doesn't necessarily explain who is covering the selling pressure right now.
#韩股急跌后反弹收窄，半导体买盘能否持续？ Today the entire market was pressured by the CPI, yet Pyth in the oracle sector bucked the trend and rose about 10%, ranking first among mainstream coins in terms of gains. The catalyst was the new rule passed by Pyth DAO in early October: all revenue from data services is used monthly to buy back tokens and add them to reserves. Currently, there are about 41 million tokens in reserve, with an official annualized revenue of about 11.5 million USD. This is one of the few attempts to directly link real business revenue with tokens, but to be clear: buybacks do not equal burns, so circulating supply has not decreased, and it cannot withstand a broad market decline when the overall market weakens. Moving forward, I am more interested in tracking the actual monthly buyback volume to see if the mechanism delivers as promised, which is more insightful than short-term price fluctuations. What do you think about this "revenue buyback" model? Is it a long-term value capture or just a one-time sentiment?$BTC 大饼
CPI数据超预期后，加息预期升温，短期对盘面不算友好。
ETF资金也是来一阵走一阵，看不到坚定的持续买盘。
我昨天说了84400和80200是震荡区间内两个流动性很密集的位置，既然行情选择了向下，那接下来8万这个位置的表现就太重要了。
一旦8万被有效击穿，往下基本没什么像样的支撑，很顺畅就能摸到78000‑75000区间。
而上方呢，85000和87000堆了巨量流动性。
如果8万撑住、买盘回流，做市商大概率会向上扫这两个位置。
说白了：接下来方向，由8万说了算。
$ETH #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 $ZEC Do not blindly try to buy the dip. After the CPI announcement, ZEC continued to weaken but never broke below the 1050 range, which also confirms that ZEC remains in a strong position.
ZEC's cumulative increase in 2026 once reached as high as 2496%. After hitting a peak of about $1650 at the end of September, it had already accumulated significant profit-taking pressure. Whales placed large sell orders below market price on platforms like Hyperliquid, directly triggering a price pullback. Technically, the $1,200–$1,300 range was an important previous support; breaking below it triggered more concentrated selling pressure.
ZEC's long-term privacy narrative has not been completely overturned. This decline is more akin to a typical correction after a big rally rather than the end of the trend. Going forward, focus should be on the effectiveness of support in the $1,200–$1,300 range and whether the NU7 upgrade (target mainnet activation on November 5) can restore market confidence.
#US CPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, and tonight PPI faces another test CPI is just the first blow; tonight's PPI will decide if 80,000 can hold
Last night, CPI pushed BTC down from 84,147 to 80,228, and now it has only recovered to around 80,780. I wouldn't call this resilience; it feels more like the market is waiting for the second inflation report at 20:30 tonight.
CPI year-over-year is 3.7%, core at 2.6%. Gasoline rose 9.1% month-over-month, contributing to more than half of the increase; but excluding energy, service prices and housing costs still rose 0.4% month-over-month, indicating pressure is not just from oil prices.
So tonight's PPI is crucial. If it continues to heat up, it means production costs are also rising, US Treasury yields could surge again, and BTC's 80,000 level will come under renewed pressure; if the data cools down, the market will have reason to trade on "CPI mainly disturbed by energy."
My position is clear: if 80,228 breaks, first watch 79,000—78,000; if after the data release it can recover to 81,400 and hold above 82,000, this drop might turn out to be a false breakdown. ETH is now around 2,360, hasn't even reclaimed 2,400, clearly weaker than BTC.
Tonight, I won't bottom-fish early nor chase shorts near 80,000. After the data comes out, first watch US Treasuries, then see if BTC can reclaim the breakdown zone. The first spike isn't the answer; where it closes is what counts.
$BTC $ETH #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 $ETH 通胀重压下的ETH：短线承压，关键支撑2,300
CPI超预期，直接把加息预期推上去了：公布前市场对10月加息概率只有约21.6%，数据后飙到43.7%。美元和美债收益率同步跳升，风险偏好被压，ETH作为高风险资产首当其冲，短线资金明显转向谨慎。
盘面上，ETH跌破2,400，最低触及2,313附近，技术面先看2,300一带能不能撑住。资金面也不帮忙：衍生品出现多单清算，现货ETF此前又连续多日净流出，短线脆弱性进一步放大。
目前ETH和美股科技股情绪高度联动。接下来重点盯加息预期会不会继续向50%逼近：如果继续升温，2,400关口短期难收复；如果情绪缓和，才有机会快速站回2,400。#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #TSMCOct15Earnings TSMC's revenue record was already known to the market before October 15. Treating the same fact as a sudden positive surprise on the day of the earnings report might be step behind the rhythm.
The company announced on October 8 that September revenue grew 54.6% year-over-year but declined 0.6% month-over-month. This contrast is quite interesting: strong long-term growth does not mean every month is higher than the previous one. Small monthly fluctuations are also