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#Berkshire's massive cash reserves, the earnings report will reveal the latest developments
Last night, the nonfarm payroll data was released, directly rewriting market expectations. New jobs added were 165,000, far exceeding the expected 65,000, and the data for the previous two months was revised upward by 84,000, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.1%.
After the data came out, the market's bet on a December rate hike quickly rose, with the probability of a rate hike approaching 80%, and interest rate futures weakening in tandem, as traders began to increase their bets on a rate hike.
But there is a contrast: the initial one-year inflation expectation for November was 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.7%. Inflation expectations are falling, but employment is unusually strong, leaving room for the Federal Reserve to continue focusing on inflation.
Another key point is that now the U.S. only needs to add about 40,000 jobs per month to match the growth of the working-age population. This balance point has dropped significantly from 150,000 in 2024. Labor supply contraction, tighter immigration, and increased retirements are the core reasons for the falling unemployment rate. Federal Reserve officials themselves do not view current employment as an inflation risk.
Strong employment drives up rate hike expectations, and low unemployment means the Federal Reserve does not need to worry excessively about a recession. This nonfarm payroll report directly tilts the December rate scale toward a rate hike
$BTC $SNDK $SOL The U.S. Department of Labor has submitted a proposed rule allowing 401(k) retirement plans to consider alternative assets to the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) for review. Although it’s not yet certain that Americans can directly invest their retirement funds in BTC, when that day truly comes, crypto assets will see a massive influx of long-term retirement savings buying pressure. At the same time, it means that you, me, and those of us with U.S. green cards—brothers and sisters we’ve never met—will be able to diversify our investments efficiently, saving a lot of effort on asset allocation. Honestly, I’m not even a bit jealous 😭
That said, when that day arrives, I believe it won’t just be $BTC that benefits. Product structures, long-term risks, and compliance responsibilities will create numerous business opportunities distributed among asset management firms, ETF issuers, custodians, compliant trading platforms, and pension service providers. So if this policy path ultimately materializes, the biggest beneficiaries should be those crypto institutions that already have capabilities in traditional financial products.
So now, smart you, can you understand the moves of various CEXs?First, to pour some cold water, when I see this kind of update, I usually place today and yesterday side by side instead of getting excited by a single number. My judgment is: the most easily overestimated part of this news is the "change," not that there are indeed more bullish people. Having a bullish bias is one thing; whether there is new driving force is another.
According to OKEx futures trading data, the BTC long-short ratio is currently 2.98, compared to 2.96 24 hours ago, meaning for every 1 short account, there are 2.98 long accounts. I'm not rushing to get excited for two reasons: from 2.96 to 2.98 is only an increase of 0.02, and based on these two readings alone, you can't see a sudden acceleration in sentiment; also, it only counts accounts, not position sizes, so several small long positions may not outweigh one large short position. Therefore, this data set neither proves that long capital is stronger nor is it enough to prove that a reverse fluctuation is imminent.
Of course, the bullish people might also be right. If the price continues to strengthen and volume follows, I will adjust my cautious judgment and acknowledge that the optimistic sentiment has real backing. As for what ratio counts as extreme, the material doesn't provide a standard, so I won't arbitrarily classify 2.98 as a danger zone. What I want to see next is whether the price can fulfill this optimism, rather than celebrating the numerical advantage of participants.BTC at $76,200, do you still dare to bottom-fish?
BTC at 76,200, do you still dare to bottom-fish? ETFs ran $1.28 billion in a week, nonfarm payrolls blew past expectations, over $1 billion long positions buried—75k just held. The last drop, is it still a bear market appetizer?
First, look at the surface: 75k-76.5k range seems stable?
24-hour volatility is converging, weekend liquidity is low, price is moving sideways between 75,000–76,500. You open the candlestick chart, see 75k held, and think: is it stable?
In the past week, it quickly fell from 80,000–81,000, dropping 5–6% in one day on November 5, with over $1 billion leveraged longs liquidated. Now both buyers and sellers are waiting for next week’s CPI and December FOMC. Whoever moves first is likely wrong.
First thing: ETFs are running, and it’s big money running.
Since November, spot BTC ETFs have seen cumulative outflows of about $1.28 billion, with about $412 million outflow on Friday alone. BlackRock IBIT is the main force.
It’s not retail panic, it’s institutions reducing positions.
ETFs won’t tweet "I’m out," they just leave sell orders on the market. What you see is price dropping, but what you don’t see is pricing power changing hands.
ETF outflows are not noise; pricing power is shifting from those chasing the rally to those waiting for a dip.
But note: outflows are slowing, panic index cooling, selling pressure easing. This isn’t infinite ammo, but don’t mistake the rebound for a reversal.
Second thing: Nonfarm payrolls blew past expectations, rate cut dreams shattered.
October nonfarm +165,000, expected only 59,000–65,000; unemployment rate 4.1%, wages still sticky. December rate hike probability once soared to 70–80%, federal funds rate 3.75–4.00%, PCE/CPI still at 3.6–3.7%.
Real rates are high, BTC is a no-yield asset, macro is a headwind.
Good nonfarm data isn’t good for BTC; it tightens the noose on risk assets.
But on the flip side: if mid-November CPI cools or Fed signals dovishness, reversal could be quick. Now it’s not about who’s braver, but who can wait.
Third thing: 75k is a long-term holding cost zone, but don’t treat it as an iron bottom.
After a large-volume long bearish candle on November 5, 75,000–76,000 stabilized, which is also a cost concentration zone for long-term holders. Current 76,200 is in the upper-middle of the range, volume shrank over the weekend.
Daily chart broke below 20/50-day moving averages, forming lower highs and lower lows; RSI rebounded from oversold but still neutral to low; MACD death cross with shrinking histogram; 4H chart consolidating to form a bottom but hasn’t broken the downtrend line.
Support: 75,000–74,500, if broken look to 73,000–70,000.
Resistance: 77,000–78,000, then 80,000–81,000 gap, strong resistance 82,000–84,000.
75k holding is not a victory, the referee hasn’t blown the whistle; if 77–78 can’t be reclaimed, all rebounds are just corrections, not reversals.
Now it’s not a bull or bear choice, it’s garbage time before the liquidity inflection point.
Full position is painful; no position is painful; leveraged is the most painful.
BTC never traps people, it traps those chasing highs; it never mistreats the patient, it mistreats leveraged gamblers.
Bull vs. bear showdown, you decide:
On one side:
Long-term holding cost zone 75–77k provides support, scarcity post-halving unchanged, stablecoins/RWA still expanding, BTC dominance at 59%, retraced 25–30% from 2025 highs, historically this position often builds bottoms, selling pressure easing.
On the other side:
ETF outflows continue, high probability of December rate hike, Nasdaq in correction, liquidity tight, 77–78 moving averages pressure, 80–81 gap resistance, weekend news vacuum, sudden news can amplify volatility.
Trading strategy
Short-term (1–3 days):
Reduce or lightly short probe at 77,000–77,500, stop loss above 78,000; buy dips at 75,000–75,500, stop loss below 74,500. 4H close + volume breakout above 77,500–78,000 turns bullish targeting 80,000; break below 74,800 reduce longs or turn short targeting 72,000–70,000. Risk-reward at least 1:2.
Mid-term (1–4 weeks):
Build positions in batches at 74,500–76,000, total position no more than 20–30% of account, target 80,000–82,000, second target 85,000+, stop loss below 73,000. Add more when CPI cools or ETF turns net inflow; if outflows continue + rate hike lands, wait for lower levels.
Bull markets aren’t shouted into existence, they’re fueled by liquidity. The faucet isn’t open yet, what are you catching with a basin?
$BTC $ETH $SNDK Will Russia open BTC and ETH trading on December 1?
According to a report on November 7, the Moscow Exchange plans to launch BTC and ETH trading services starting December 1.
But there is an easily overlooked detail: the related regulatory rules are expected to take effect on November 17, and ordinary investors may face purchase limits and entry tests.
In other words, opening trading does not mean everyone can buy and sell without restrictions.
This is clearly different from what many understand as a "full liberalization of cryptocurrency."
What I think is truly worth watching is whether the introduction of BTC and ETH by traditional exchanges will bring new compliance capital demands.
Do you think this limited opening is a long-term positive for the crypto market, or is it more symbolic in the short term? #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $$BTC On November 5th, Bitcoin briefly surged to around $81,000 but quickly fell back to around $75,000, with over $1.2 billion liquidated in 24 hours, mostly long positions. This indicates that after a bullish spike, leveraged longs are very easily and quickly liquidated.BTC, ETH, and SOL accounts are all biased towards longs, but the most crowded is ETH
Looking at the mainstream USDT perpetual snapshot at 01:00 UTC on November 7: $BTC long accounts account for 75.7%, 8-hour funding rate +0.0084%, OI about $7.31 billion; $ETH longs account for 79.7%, funding rate +0.0100%, OI about $5.35 billion; $SOL longs account for 78.0%, funding rate +0.0100%, OI about $840 million.
All three coins are biased towards longs, but ETH has the highest proportion of long accounts and the highest funding rate. A positive funding rate means longs pay shorts, which does not necessarily indicate a price increase; the account ratio counts the number of accounts and does not equal the actual position amount. Do not interpret "80% of accounts are long" as 80% of the funds being long.
What is truly worth cautioning is: if the price does not rise for a long time, the holding cost continues to accumulate. Once the short-term support is broken, some longs will shift from active positions to passive reductions.
I will first watch whether the ETH funding rate can fall back and whether OI contracts moderately, rather than directly switching to short. Crowding is a risk warning, not a directional signal. Are you more worried about ETH or SOL?
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% #BTC现货ETF年内累计净流出约4.16亿美元 I found that many people like to believe in so-called insider information, or borderline insider info.
For example, if they know which project has been sold off, they think it will definitely pump and rush in.
But actually, even if it’s sold, it doesn’t start immediately.
Sometimes it takes days, sometimes months, sometimes years.
Remember, all words and everyone else are just the market makers' opposing side.$AMAT
Equipment stocks fell, is Applied Materials facing demand disappearance or budget postponement?
On November 5, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged sharply, and the forward investment expectations in the equipment chain were subsequently scrutinized. The market first compresses valuations, which does not mean that customer orders have declined by the same magnitude.
Applied Materials needs to be viewed separately for advanced logic, storage, and other process investments. The expansion pace of different customers may offset each other or may weaken simultaneously.
If subsequent orders and service revenues remain resilient, I would interpret the impact more as a change in risk premium; if customers cut equipment budgets and delay acceptance, pressure on profitability will begin to take over, and valuation adjustments may not yet be over.This rebound is not accompanied by a significant increase in volume, indicating insufficient buying power at higher prices. After the flash crash near $81,000 earlier, bullish confidence was damaged, and the short-term trend leans more towards range consolidation. If the trading volume cannot expand, it will be difficult for the price to directly break through the resistance above. Not chasing $IONQ at ~$32 after a ~29% run off Thursday's $24.98 low.
Q3 revenue $173.8M, +336% YoY, vs ~$142M expected.
FY26 guide raised to $505-515M from $450-460M.
RPO doubled to $1.2B.
I think the numbers are real, but adj. EBITDA was still -$133.6M.
And ~$83.5M came from the SkyWater deal, not pure quantum.
Just watching.
Holds $30 I stay interested.
Loses $28 and the pop fades.
Guide raise re-rates it, or quantum hype cools again?
$IONQ $NVDA
#USStocks #QuantumNon-farm payroll data is one of the most influential indicators in macroeconomics, directly shaping the Federal Reserve's policy path. In the current environment, the labor market is unexpectedly strong, implying that inflationary pressures may persist, giving the Fed more justification to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting. Historical data shows that Bitcoin's median volatility in the first hour after the non-farm payroll release is about 0.44%, approximately 1.6 times that of normal periods, with a 57% probability of rising in direction, but it often comes under pressure during rate hike cycles or hawkish data. Today's strong data should theoretically suppress risk appetite and be bearish for the crypto market.
So, why is there almost no reaction in the market? The core reason is that "the bearish news has already been priced in." Last night (November 5), Bitcoin plunged from above about $80,000 to around $75,000 to $76,000, a single-day drop of over 5%, with over $1 billion liquidated across the network, the vast majority being long positions. The main cause of this decline was not the non-farm payroll data itself, but the sell-off in U.S. stocks, especially Nasdaq tech and AI-related stocks. The chip and AI sectors plummeted due to earnings expectations, regulatory concerns, and post-election policy uncertainty, with Nasdaq dropping more than 5% in a single day. The risk asset contagion effect immediately transmitted to the crypto market. The correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks has significantly increased in the current cycle; it is more like a "high-beta Nasdaq substitute" rather than an independent digital gold.The rise and fall of L1 largely depends on BTC's mood
A regression analysis breaks down the 4-week returns of ETH, AVAX, SOL, BNB, and TRX. Bitcoin's Beta alone explains 21%–65%, and adding on-chain metrics like protocol revenue and active addresses only contributes an additional 0–9 percentage points.
Holders need to recognize one thing: the "fundamental narrative" you buy is mostly just a shadow of $BTC in the short term. No matter how detailed the project teams talk about revenue or TVL, it doesn't change this coefficient.
Ethereum is the best example. During the week of the Dencun upgrade, TTM protocol revenue was $3.3 billion, dropping to $1.3 billion by August 2025, a 60% decrease, yet the market cap rose from $460 billion to $540 billion. Revenue fell while market cap rose—not because demand collapsed, but because Blob fees and the Gas limit increase were already suppressing the unit price of L1 block space.Berkshire Hathaway's Q2 2026 financial report, as of June 30, shows that Berkshire holds approximately $359.2 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and U.S. short-term Treasury bonds.
What does this mean? It is equivalent to owning an extremely large reserve of funds.
There are several main reasons:
1. Market valuations are high.
Buffett has always emphasized a margin of safety. When the stock prices of quality companies are significantly above their intrinsic value, he prefers to hold cash rather than invest just for the sake of investing.
2. Continuously adjusting stock positions.
In recent times, Berkshire has been a net seller of stocks, steadily increasing its cash reserves. This has led the market to speculate whether Buffett believes there are not enough attractive investment opportunities at the time.
3. Waiting for better investment opportunities.
Cash for Berkshire is not just a defensive tool but also future purchasing power. Once the market undergoes a significant correction or quality assets become undervalued, it has ample funds to deploy.
II. Does this mean a financial crisis is coming?
Not necessarily!
Holding a huge amount of cash does not mean Buffett knows in advance that a financial crisis is imminent.
More accurately, it is a balance between investment risk and opportunity cost.
Moreover, in 2026, Berkshire has already started to change its strategy. In Q2, the company became a net buyer of stocks again and repurchased its own shares, indicating that management has not completely stopped investing. #伯克希尔巨额现金储备，财报将披露最新动向 Today's analyzed coins: ONE, AIN
$ONE rose 54% in 24 hours, with a volume close to $29.63 million, an open interest of about 1.88 million, and a funding rate of -0.083%. The price is up while the funding rate turns negative, indicating shorts are paying to hold positions, suggesting a possible short squeeze; however, it's only 4.8% below the previous high. The surge with volume but stagnant price warns of a potential double whammy. The key is whether it can hold above the previous high with volume; if it can't, don't chase.
$AIN: Alpha surged 33% in a single day, peaked at 0.2346, currently at 0.1441, a pullback of nearly 39%; trading volume is 984,000, liquidity 880,000. The support is shallow and volatility high, chasing the rise risks getting trapped, bottom-fishing risks catching a falling knife. Until a clear bottom is confirmed, beware of further decline; small-cap coins can be heavily manipulated with little capital.
Once the previous high is broken and AIN confirms a bottom, which one do you think looks better?Many people think that crashing to 74,000 is a one-time risk release, and after the crash, the price can stabilize and rebound. In the current environment, this idea is not very realistic. Macro pressure still exists, the market itself is filled with panic, and the funds willing to actively step in to buy are very cautious. $BTC $ETH $SNDK Although the slow decline is exhausting, the selling pressure is dispersed, and liquidations are triggered sporadically, making it difficult to start large-scale chain liquidations. Even if it slowly approaches 74,000, the buying side still has time to test and absorb. As long as there is no avalanche-style deleveraging, once a turning point appears later, the market has a chance to pull back. But if it accelerates downward with volume, the nature is completely different. This kind of decline starts with selling pressure and speed. When the price reaches the consensus support around 74,000, a large number of long stop losses and forced liquidations are piled up here. Once triggered, chain liquidations will start: the price drops, longs are forcibly liquidated, the system automatically sells at market price, new selling pressure continues to push the market down, triggering more stop losses and forced liquidations. The more it falls, the more it explodes; the more it explodes, the more it sells; panic continues to spread, forming a downward spiral. The current absorption is already weak, and to stop directly at this position requires a huge amount of buying to enter instantly, which is a very low probability event. The liquidation system can easily sweep through this area. "A sharp drop means all bad news is out" only applies to washouts with sufficient liquidity, optimistic sentiment, and good absorption at the bottom. Under the current macro suppression and market panic, a volume waterfall plunge is not a clearance of bad news but the opening of a stampede switch. There is still room for maneuver in a slow decline, but once a volume waterfall starts running, the speed of liquidation is simply unstoppable.The biggest threat to Bitcoin's future may not be regulation or financial institutions selling off, but quantum computing. $BTC
Bitcoin Core developer Cory Fields proposed the "Quantum Mine" scheme, hoping to increase the cost of quantum theft by requiring attackers to stake an equivalent amount of BTC as collateral.
At the same time, Blockstream is evaluating lattice-based signature schemes and tends to adopt Falcon-1024 to address future quantum threats.
What does this mean? $BTC
At least Bitcoin developers have not chosen to pretend they don't see it.
Many people always think quantum computing is still a distant real threat, but technological development never notifies you in advance when it arrives.
I rather believe that Bitcoin's true competitiveness should not only be its fixed supply of 21 million coins but also its adaptability to new technological threats. $BTC
Of course, these schemes are still in the research and evaluation stage and should not be understood as quantum security issues having been resolved.
If Bitcoin cannot even cope with future technological challenges, then what is the meaning of so-called digital gold?
Do you think quantum computing will ultimately destroy BTC, or will it drive Bitcoin to complete a major security upgrade? #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #ModernaQ3扭亏为盈，上调全年营收增长预期 #Oklo推进核电项目建设，商业化进展受关注 SoftBank’s fiscal 2026 Q2 report on Nov 10 will test whether its expanding AI exposure is translating into a more resilient financial profile. With cumulative OpenAI investment at $64.6B, Vision Fund gains and losses, asset valuations, and financing matter together: strong marks alone may not settle the durability question.
#SoftBankQ2AIReturns Tesla and SpaceX together lost about $456 billion in market value over two days, a staggering figure. For those exposed to both companies simultaneously, the harder part is that they may have caused the portfolio to lose its buffer at the same time.
Automotive, aerospace, and related tech businesses sound very different, but the market pricing may still include common factors: trust in Musk, optimism about long-term growth, and how much premium investors are willing to pay for long-term plans. Once these expectations adjust, companies with different businesses may also face pressure together.
What I think is worth checking this time is how many companies you actually bought and how much of your position depends on the execution ability and market appeal of the same person.
Of course, the orders, cash burn, and financing arrangements of the two companies still need to be analyzed separately. The stock price falling together cannot replace judgment on specific businesses; but if the portfolio treats them as unrelated assets, the risk estimate may be too optimistic.
Especially after the previous rise, it’s easy to feel that holdings are diversified across different industries, each with different growth logic. Only during a sharp drop do you realize that the shared expectations everyone depends on are bigger than imagined.
I won’t use the two-day market value change to predict the companies’ outcomes, but I will reassess concentration because of it. Liking a company, recognizing the founder, and controlling portfolio risk are all decisions that need to be made separately.
#特斯拉与SpaceX两日市值蒸发约4560亿美元 Nonfarm payrolls far exceed expectations! 165,000 jobs added, rate hike expectations instantly surge, is the crypto market about to get hit again?
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $BTC
As soon as last night's data came out, the market was stunned. Everyone thought employment was cooling down, but October nonfarm payrolls hit 165,000, unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, and wages didn't soften. The Fed was immediately pushed, and the probability of a rate hike in December took off.
Simply put, US employment is still too strong, and money won't loosen up anytime soon.
When the dollar strengthens and US Treasury yields rise, risk assets have to bow down first.
$BTC has been consolidating these days, and with this macroeconomic blow, short-term pressure is almost certain.
My personal judgment:
This big beat on nonfarm payrolls will indeed pour cold water on the crypto market in the short term, especially for those with high leverage.
But don't be scared away. The current strong employment data is more lagging data; what really determines the future direction is whether inflation can truly come down and how tough the Fed's stance really is. The crypto market has been repeatedly slapped by macro factors several times recently; every time there's a big beat on expectations, it first drops sharply, then slowly digests it.
My strategy is: first guard against a pullback in the short term, don't chase highs, and wait until the market has mostly digested the "rate hike expectations"; that might actually be a better opportunity to buy the dip.
After all, what really determines the mid-to-long-term price of crypto is liquidity and risk appetite, not a single nonfarm payroll report.
When the data comes out, stay calm first, and remember not to be led by sensational headlines. Employment data is so strong that the market can't even smile.
US nonfarm payrolls in October increased by 165,000, far exceeding the expected 65,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. The probability of a rate hike in December has risen to nearly 80%.
Looking at the crypto space, the big brother is around $76,177, the slightly delayed aristocrat is about $2,249, and SOL is around $90. Although the three brothers have slightly rebounded, their weekly performance remains weak, especially SOL, which has dropped about 6.5% in the past five trading days.
The most awkward situation now is: the stronger the employment, the greater the pressure to raise rates, making it harder for risk assets to catch a breath.
I'm not in a hurry to bottom-fish for now; I'll first watch how the dollar and US bonds move. A rebound does not equal a reversal, don't let a single green candlestick trick you into getting on board.
Personal trading record sharing, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 The demand in the U.S. semiconductor industry still has growth support, but the industry's fundamentals are clearly diverging: AI-related chips, advanced packaging, and equipment benefit from data center investments; meanwhile, valuation sensitivity to high interest rates and capital returns is increasing, and export restrictions and customer investment payback periods also bring uncertainty. Industry sales growth does not equate to simultaneous improvement in profits and cash flow for all companies.
The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) of the United States announced that global semiconductor sales reached $517.7 billion in Q3 2026, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24.1%; sales in September were $172.6 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.9%. This is based on global industry metrics, not a direct aggregation of revenues from U.S.-listed companies.
The benefits of AI demand are not limited to GPUs: computing power chips, custom chips, storage, advanced packaging, and equipment may all receive investment. However, whether demand can translate into sustained profits depends on whether customer capital expenditures are realized, capacity ramp-up and yield, and whether new revenue covers R&D and expansion costs.
Recently, CNBC reported that AI infrastructure deals are under pressure from high interest rates, massive capital expenditures, and investment return concerns, indicating that the market is beginning to scrutinize more strictly whether "inputs can generate returns," rather than just focusing on order growth. cnbc report #美股遭大幅抛售：费城半导体指数创2020年3月以来最大单日跌幅 $SOXL $ASML
AI investment is being reassessed, how should we view ASML's orders?
This week, European semiconductors were also affected by concerns over AI investment, with ASML pulling back on November 5. The sensitive point for equipment stocks is whether customers can fulfill their multi-year capital expenditures as originally planned.
Demand for advanced processes and short-term project progress are two different matters. Customers may agree with the technology roadmap but delay factory construction due to power, permits, or financing.
I focus on new orders, cancellations or deferrals, and the pace of delivery turning into revenue. If orders remain stable and deliveries continue as planned, short-term emotional shocks are easier to absorb; if project delays spread, one cannot ignore mid-term cash flow risks based solely on long-term technological barriers.The market is rising, but the capital flow hasn't kept up: ETFs are still experiencing net outflows, and incremental spot buying hasn't entered. In this kind of rebound structure, my approach is simple—short-term trades are possible, reduce position size by one level, and set the take-profit point a bit closer. Wait until the orders above 2450 are truly filled and ETF flows turn positive, then it's not too late to increase the position again. The market rewards those who are patient
$ETH Trump has also fled.
His Trump Media company has started liquidating Bitcoin, selling as much as 99.99% of its holdings!
The company sold 4,259 $BTC, equivalent to $343.67 million.
The timing of this large-scale sell-off is very delicate: the Democratic party is preparing to investigate the crypto industry, as well as the financial connections between the Trump family and crypto assets.
This batch of Bitcoin holdings once peaked at a market value of $1.4 billion in 2025, and now has been almost entirely cashed out!!!In a bear market, where is the money hiding?
Not all is lying flat; assets with clear accounts are being selectively bought:
UNI (weekly increase once reached 18%, DEX eating into CEX + protocol fee burn), AAVE (enterprise-level fixed-rate product repricing) become DeFi blue-chip safe havens;
ZEC stands against the trend at around ~$1,361, relying on NU7 upgrade and privacy narrative, but most of the positive news is priced in, beware of a "sell the fact" pullback;
XMR weekly rise about 5.4%; exchange ETH reserves drop to a ten-year low, a giant whale increased holdings by 8,775 ETH after five months (total 23,000 ETH);
Enterprise buying hasn't stopped: Strive bought 8,136 BTC in Q3, bought another 15,124 BTC in October, holdings reach 43,124 BTC;
TeraWulf and Hut 8 financial reports show mining companies' revenue focus has clearly shifted to HPC/AI leasing. $UNI $ZEC $XMR #UNI #zec #XMR Just saw this post, my first reaction was: the number of long accounts is almost three times that of short accounts, is the sentiment really that aligned? The OKEx BTC contract long-short ratio is currently 2.98, 24 hours ago it was 2.96, meaning for every 1 short account, there are 2.98 long accounts.
My understanding is that this data is more suitable to remind me to check for blind spots in my judgment; using it alone to predict direction is overrated. Not sure if that's right 🤔 First, it counts accounts, not positions, so more people doesn't directly equal stronger capital power; second, the change from 2.96 to 2.98 is minor, interpreting it as "bullish sentiment suddenly heating up" is a bit of an overreach.
I haven't figured out yet how high counts as the "extreme" mentioned in the material. Without that scale, simply applying "more people means the opposite move" is also quite lazy. I will pay attention to whether the ratio and price move in sync next, and won't put too much drama on a number for now.$BTC, $ETH The most cost-effective strategy in this trend is to buy the dip
But Da Bai thinks many people probably don't dare to buy the dip anymore
The sudden blowup events caught everyone off guard, wiping out too many positions
Yesterday's nonfarm payroll data release had basically no impact on the market
The next expectation is whether there will be a rate hike or a rate cut
The midterm elections also bring bearish factors, is there any other bearish news?
If not, then the market should at least have a small rebound, what do you think?
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 A wick doesn't mean someone is rushing to buy
$SNDK has a wick that goes down and then bounces back.
It looks like someone is eager to buy.
What does this price level mean:
The wick only shows the order book at that moment.
A few orders can push the price down and then pull it back up.
Who is placing orders here:
If there were really big orders absorbing it, the price wouldn't just bounce once and stop.
Bouncing back to the original position means the buying side didn't keep up.
Looking further, wicks often appear in the middle of a downtrend.
They don't change the direction; they just leave those chasing the price stuck above.
Those who placed stop-loss orders just below the wick tip have already been swept out once.
#美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4%
#$SNDK Wow, in the past hour, long liquidations accounted for 95%, and this wave hasn't been fully cleaned out yet.
As of November 7th, 03:45 UTC, four exchanges liquidated $171 million in the past 24 hours, with longs at $113.31 million and shorts at $57.66 million. Breaking it down by period shows a clearer pattern: 1-hour liquidation was $8.06 million with longs at 95%; 4-hour was $12.54 million with longs at 75%; 12-hour was $44.65 million with longs at 61%; and 24-hour longs accounted for 66%.
This indicates that short-term selling pressure hasn't completely passed, with longs still being forced out in the last hour. However, the longer the period, the less extreme the long-short gap, which means the overall daily structure is a continuous deleveraging rather than a sudden stampede at a single point in time.
Looking at derivatives, in CoinGecko's aggregated snapshot, the open interest (OI) for $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL decreased by 0.6%, 2.9%, and 1.4% respectively over 24 hours. Prices have slightly stabilized while OI continues to shrink, which looks more like positions are retreating rather than new longs entering.
I'm not in a hurry to interpret reduced liquidations as a reversal. First, watch for OI to stop falling, then see if spot trading volume picks up. Do you think the next step should focus more on price or on position size?
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #美股暴跌后科技股反弹，纳指周线仍跌约3.4% The liquidation pressure on the market is clear at a glance, and Maji keeps losing battle after battle!
From the liquidation data, $BTC is currently stuck in a critical range.
Once it breaks above $77,000, mainstream exchanges will face a concentrated liquidation of short positions totaling 958 million, which can easily trigger a short squeeze rally;
Conversely, if it falls below $75,000, 345 million in long positions will be liquidated, driving a surge in sell orders.
On the other side, the familiar big brother Maji is battling fiercely in the market again.
In the past few days, he has lost $505,000, quickly exhausting the funds raised by selling 15 NFTs. Today, he cashed out BAYC#32 to continue gambling with funds.
Now he has opened a 25x leveraged long position on 540 $ETH, already floating a loss of $32,000, with the liquidation price very close to the current price, posing extremely high risk.
The non-farm payroll impact on the market is actually not as big as imagined, and the volatility ended quickly. The subsequent volatility comes from the influence of the US stock market. Next, attention should be paid to US Treasury yields and CPI data~
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 What’s most worth noting today isn’t who insulted whom, but how a statement that never existed became "news" within a few hours.
The rumor version goes like this: Musk criticized Binance for holding 80% of the crypto market share and urged users to move their funds. Some took it as fact and emotions flared immediately—big platform monopoly, industry stuck, time to run.
CZ’s response was interesting. He didn’t write a long post to argue how the share was calculated; he just posted a screenshot asking for verification: Musk never posted that, nor did he call for fund transfers. Musk himself later confirmed the content was fabricated. Two sentences, and the matter was closed.
This is worth pondering. The rumor was dispelled so quickly not because the reasoning was clear, but because the "original source doesn’t exist" could be directly shown. A screenshot is more powerful than an argument; it pushes the burden of proof back: you say he said it, then show the original post.
Look at the spread side. A statement with a specific percentage is naturally more likely to be shared than "a certain exchange has a high share"—the number gives it a sense of certainty, certainty gives it credibility, and no one asks who calculated the 80% or whether it’s on-chain. The more precise the number, the fewer people question it.
For holders, the real impact isn’t on Binance but on the momentum. The role of such news isn’t to make you judge right or wrong, but to make you act before verifying. $BTC, $ETH, and $BNB have enough depth; a single rumor dispelled takes only a few minutes, but those minutes are when people cut positions and then buy back at higher prices.$BTC
In the bear-to-bull transition phase, the market is always discontinuous, and there are many unexpected issues, all bad ones.
Entered some long positions again at places with a high profit-loss ratio.
So far, this year's bull market has completely replicated the early 2023 bull market trend. The 8 months of consolidation in early 2023 left a deep impression. Back then, the capital wasn't very large, and I always wanted to catch every market fluctuation, which tortured me for 8 months.
Hope this time is different (but actually, it's pretty much the same every time) On the surface, it looks like altcoins are partying, but BTC and ETH aren't really keeping up. Can this hype last through the weekend? I've been watching $SNDK's market these past couple of days, and the more I look, the more interesting it gets. After being hammered for several consecutive days, the weekend sentiment is still leaking out, yet the price and volume quietly diverge at the lows. Many are selling, but the volume of the sell-offs is clearly less fierce than before. On the surface, panic continues, but the underlying structure tells a different story: short-term selling pressure might be dulling. 🫧 What really caught my attention isn't $SNDK itself, but the volatility phase it's in. BTC is moving steadily now, ETH is hesitating to follow, and altcoins are all doing their own thing—some are trying to rebound with volume at lows, others get pushed back after a single bounce. This mismatch indicates the market isn't trading a "full recovery," but rather "who catches their breath first." A symbol like $SNDK, which shows volume-price divergence after continuous selling, naturally becomes a window for short-term funds to observe repair elasticity. But whether it can really pull back above 1000 depends on whether the broader market provides the right backdrop. The bullish path is clear: once BTC stabilizes and ETH catches up, oversold altcoins with volume signs are likely to be picked first for sentiment repair, volatility will increase, and the pace will quicken. The risk is also there: if the weekend is just a low-volume false calm, and Monday opens weak, the divergence can continue, and volume at lows might turn into a new round of rotation. What’s truly unseen is whether this wave of selling has worn holders’ patience down to a critical point. My judgment is that this is more like a "breather window" within a volatility phase, not a full reversal #伯克希尔巨额现金储备，财报将披露最新动向 Some clues about the allocation of funds in Q3 have actually emerged:
· Acquisition of homebuilder Taylor Morrison: completed on July 24, cash consideration approximately $6.8 billion.
· Stock buybacks: repurchased over $3.3 billion of own shares in July alone (about $4.5 billion repurchased in Q2).
· Earlier large investments: net stock purchases of nearly $20 billion in Q2, including a $10 billion private placement investment in Alphabet.Family, the liquidation map is not just about who has the most liquidations, but also about who is moving in the opposite direction.
As of November 7, 03:45 UTC, the 24-hour perpetual liquidations on Binance, Bybit, OKX, and Gate totaled approximately $171 million, with long positions at $113.31 million and short positions at $57.66 million, longs accounting for about 66%. By coin, $BTC liquidations were $42.01 million, $ETH $33.35 million, with longs suffering heavier losses; XRP liquidations were $11.83 million, almost entirely borne by longs; $ZEC was the opposite, with short liquidations at $6.68 million, higher than long liquidations at $2.78 million.
The most noteworthy aspect of this chart is the divergence: BTC and ETH are still liquidating longs, while ZEC shows signs of short squeezes. SOL liquidations were about $4.67 million, noticeably smaller in scale. We cannot say that altcoins are broadly strengthening just because ZEC is rising, nor can we interpret BTC's long liquidations directly as a bottom.
A reminder: this total amount covers all perpetual contracts across the four platforms, including stock and fund contracts, not purely total crypto market liquidations.
I will continue to watch whether ZEC's open interest expands and whether BTC spot can hold. Do you think mainstream coins are deleveraging now, or is capital starting to shift direction?
#美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 $TON
TON's ecosystem has an interesting distribution advantage through its connection with the Telegram environment. However, access to a large potential audience is not the same as converting users into consistent blockchain participants. Wallet activity, application retention, transaction demand, and developer commitment will provide a clearer picture of whether its ecosystem can mature beyond initial attention.$DOGE
Dogecoin has something many newer projects struggle to establish: a recognizable identity and a large community. Yet community strength and sustainable network demand are two different things. Recent network data shows transaction activity increasing year over year while daily active addresses have declined. That contrast makes adoption quality an important part of the DOGE discussion.Not a single U in the wallet is missing, but the news says USDC dropped by 800 million in a week. Who took that money?
Not you. Circle issued 12.7 billion new this week and redeemed 13.5 billion, a net decrease of 800 million, meaning someone else exchanged U back.
Interestingly, their reserves are 70.5 billion, more than the 69.2 billion in circulation, with overnight reverse repos at 36.6 billion and treasury bills within three months at 23.3 billion making up the bulk. In other words, they put all the money in the safest places, accessible at any time.
So this 800 million is not a run, but someone reducing their position. As the $USDC level goes down, the buying power on the $BTC side has one less bullet. Let's watch it slowly.The storage chip sector has recently dropped sharply. Many who entered the market to go long and bottom-fish after seeing impressive earnings reports from Hynix and SanDisk have suffered significant losses. They were convinced it was a proper bottom after a pullback, but once they entered, they realized they had only caught the stock halfway down the slope. Despite record-breaking performance data and fully booked orders, which made people think they could steadily ride a recovery rally, the funds simply didn’t buy it. Positive news turned directly into a sell-off, and many who added to their positions only increased their floating losses, breaking their morale. Many focused solely on the attractive earnings reports and overlooked hidden negatives like the downward revision of HBM demand expectations and the slowing cycle growth, unknowingly stepping into a trap. So, can the prices still rebound? In my view, a short-term corrective rebound is highly likely to continue, but "rising back to the June highs" is very difficult and requires at least two or three hard conditions to be met simultaneously. First, the current price levels: • $SKHYNIX SK Hynix ADR: Closed at $127.34 on November 6, up 2.78%, with a price-to-earnings ratio of about 6.5, having retraced more than half from the late June highs. • $xSNDK SanDisk: Closed at $835.06 on November 6, up 3.55%, with a market cap of about $118.8 billion and a PE of about 6.1; the June 25 high was $2,335, meaning it has been halved twice, and it dropped another 33.85% in October alone, with a 1-for-8 stock split scheduled for November 19. Both companies now represent a combination of "record-high earnings and valuation compressed to single-digit PE," which means there is limited room for further one-sided sharp declines, but it also indicates the market has alreadyStablecoins are the market's water level gauge, and this week the water level dropped by 800 million.
In the 7 days ending November 5, Circle issued about 12.7 billion $USDC and redeemed about 13.5 billion, a net decrease of 800 million, bringing the total supply down to 69.2 billion. The numbers look scary, but it's not a cliff dive.
Look at the reserve structure: 70.5 billion in reserves against 69.2 billion in circulation, an excess of about 1.3 billion. Among these, overnight reverse repos are 36.6 billion, and government bonds within three months are 23.3 billion; these two items total nearly 60 billion, all assets that can be liquidated at any time; institutional deposits are 9.9 billion, and other bank deposits are only 800 million. Circle places almost all reserves in the shortest-term government assets, preferring to earn less interest rather than locking in long durations, deliberately minimizing bank exposure.
Now look at this 800 million; the direction is more important than the amount. Issuance of 12.7 billion and redemption of 13.5 billion means funds are flowing quickly in both directions, not a one-way drain. More redemptions than issuance usually indicate on-exchange leverage is decreasing, or someone is swapping $USDC for other stablecoins.
I lean toward the former, a mild deleveraging, not a doubt about Circle's credit. If it were a credit issue, reserves wouldn't stay steady at 70.5 billion.
One point to watch: if next week's net outflow expands beyond 2 billion and $BTC trading volume also shrinks, then it's not just a portfolio shift but a wholesale exit. At that time, the focus should be on when $USDC issuance again exceeds redemptions, not on how much $ETH falls.Among large-cap coins, only $QNT showed a decent bullish candle today. Coinglass reports 203.7, up 7.7% in 24 hours. CoinStats says social platforms are again hyping the old news "Clearinghouse adopts Quant," replaying the story. That was settled on September 24, when the US clearinghouse TCH chose Quant as the interoperability layer for tokenized deposit networks, planning to open to banks in the first half of 2027. QNT surged from around 65 to 372 back then, later giving back more than half, down 19.5% over 30 days, but still up 193% year-to-date.
Leverage isn't heavy. Total network positions are $80.05 million, with only $970,000 liquidated in 24 hours, longs and shorts evenly split, so no short squeeze. Binance account long-short ratio is 1.07, OKX is 1.23, Binance whales hold a 1.55 long-short ratio, whales are more bullish than retail. Contract daily volume is 150 million, spot only 23.6 million, price is set by the contract market. Funding turned into a net inflow of 400,000 over 4 hours, but a net outflow of 76.57 million over 30 days, big money hasn't returned.
The problem is the story and price don't align. Neither TCH nor Quant said banks have to buy QNT; platform fees can be paid in dollars. 209 is the upper boundary of the October downtrend channel. To prove this isn't just a replay of old news, we need new developments like TCH releasing a list of participating banks, and the price to leverage that to break above 209; without anything, it will fall back below 190, making this bullish candle a fakeout, with 175 to be tested. $BTC $ETH #美国10月非农超预期，12月加息押注升温 #Anthropic still plans an IPO in November, investors lower valuation expectations With non-farm payrolls approaching, can employment data strengthen December rate hike expectations?
My US stock pre-market diary (November 5, 2026): Major players are dumping SNDK, SpaceX, SOXL — should you short or lay low?
Looking at the pre-market volume leaderboard, don’t be fooled by the “slight dip in the three major indexes.” S&P futures only fell 0.06%, but SOXL pre-market is down 6.93%, SNDK down 2.93%, SpaceX down 1.06%. This is not a broad decline; funds are concentrated on suppressing AI hardware stocks.
The reasons for the declines in these three stocks are completely different.
SND’s revenue surged 372% last quarter, but next quarter guidance of 10.3-10.8 billion is below the expected 11.148 billion, with gross margin flat, showing signs of peaking.
Texas policy shift: the governor proposes suspending new data center construction; Goldman Sachs estimates this affects about 45% of expansion capacity nationwide.
SOXL is a 3x leveraged ETF, dropping from 79 to 62.36, triggering stop-losses and passive liquidations leading to concentrated exits.
SpaceX’s mission delayed due to oxidizer leak; related government contracts are under review.
Software giants did not sell off simultaneously; funds are shifting from compute power narratives to cash flow certainty, not exiting. Open your positions and check stop-loss levels on compute power orders.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC CPI Preview, December Interest Rate Direction Faces a Critical Test $BTC, $ETH Are About to Face a Big Test Again? The most important event in the market this week is the upcoming US CPI inflation data release! The previous non-farm payrolls already dealt a heavy blow to the market, with October adding 165,000 jobs, far exceeding the expected 65,000, and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. Strong employment data has led the market to re-bet on a Fed rate hike in December, with the probability once rising close to 80%. Now everyone's attention is focused on the CPI! Why is this CPI so important? Because it may directly affect the Fed's interest rate decision in December. Currently, the market is in a somewhat awkward position: If CPI continues to rise: Inflation pressure will be hard to ease, expectations for a December rate hike may further heat up, the dollar and US Treasury yields may strengthen, and BTC, ETH, as well as US tech stocks, will face greater pressure. If CPI is below expectations: Signs of cooling inflation may appear, market tightening expectations may ease, and risk assets may see a wave of recovery rebound. If CPI meets expectations: The market may not immediately choose a direction, and subsequent judgments will need to combine employment, consumption, and Fed officials' speeches. My personal view: We cannot simply assume the market will continue to fall just because non-farm payrolls are strong, nor can we prematurely bet on a rebound just because CPI may cool down. What really needs attention is whether the inflation and employment data sets can resonate, and whether the Fed will further release hawkish signals. For BTC, ETOn the same day, for the same type of product, BlackRock's IBIT saw an outflow of $403 million, while Fidelity's FBTC had an inflow of $42.8 million.
SoSoValue recorded a net outflow of about $412 million for the US stock spot Bitcoin ETFs on November 6, with Ethereum ETFs also seeing an outflow of $93.19 million. Two consecutive days of withdrawals, with IBIT almost entirely responsible for the red figures, while FBTC alone turned green. The price is still hovering around 76,117, but the funds have already cast their votes.
If institutions really act as a whole, why can the two largest funds move in completely opposite directions?$SNDK
Storage stock volatility amplifies, how will SanDisk differentiate itself from sector trading?
This week, AI and semiconductors experienced significant pullbacks, and the storage industry chain is also undergoing a capital reassessment. Price changes have amplified market disagreements on demand and supply rhythms.
Flash memory needs to be viewed separately for data centers and consumer ends. Enterprise-level demand growth is more likely to improve overall profitability only if it exceeds the impact of new capacity additions and weak consumption.
I focus on unit price, inventory reduction, and cash expenditure. If the product mix improves and inventory decreases, it can raise expectations for profit recovery; if demand is merely customers stocking up in advance and orders subsequently decline, the judgment on the cycle duration should be lowered.I thought the miners' motto was "just mine one more," but Bitdeer seems more like a self-disciplined canteen in the crypto circle: they cook their own meals and leave not a single bite. 😂
According to PANews, Bitdeer posted a weekly update on X: as of November 6, this week they produced 258.6 $BTC, all sold, with a net holding increase of 0, holding zero inventory excluding customer deposits. I see this more as a shift in managing risk rather than a vote against the market.
Selling the output reduces exposure to price fluctuations of their own inventory, but future mining income is still affected by coin prices; zero holdings do not mean zero risk. Selling coins can bring in cash flow but does not directly prove profitability; profits still depend on costs. So I think judging the operational quality of mining companies is more important than bullish or bearish interpretations. I continue to focus on unit production costs because whether the canteen is profitable cannot be judged by just counting empty plates.🔍 What I'm stuck on isn't the amount of coins sold, but the timeframe of "this week": is one week's activity enough to label mining companies as bearish? Let's not rush to conclusions.
According to Bitdeer's weekly report posted on X, as of November 6, all 258.6 $BTC produced this week have been sold, with net holdings at zero and positions also at zero (excluding customer deposits). What is certain is that coins were sold; what is uncertain is why they were sold.
An interesting detail here: selling the output can convert it back to cash, but it doesn't directly prove a judgment that the coin price will fall. This is my speculation: they may prioritize cash turnover over holding coin exposure. I believe treating this news as an industry bearish signal is weak evidence; the material lacks cost and fund usage details, and the motive isn't confirmed. I will continue to compare subsequent weekly reports and cash expenditures, and won't write a complete narrative for the company based on a single disclosure.Oklo's $3.1B cash position gives its buildout time, but the ~$123M nine-month loss shows why execution discipline still matters. Steel installation at Aurora is tangible progress; the 2030 target for up to 1.2GW in Ohio leaves a long window in which financing, construction and delivery milestones must earn confidence.
#OkloNuclearBuildout The most dangerous moment for a short seller is not the slide that pays the position. It is the bounce that does not. The recent rout in US equities, which drove the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index to its steepest one-day fall since March 2020, has handed bearish traders a tempting narrative: storage names look vulnerable, and $SNDK has become a favoured expression of that view. But the mechanics of shorting invert the usual psychology. Falling prices invite conviction and size; rising prices t