Orbit Post Sitemap
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#Orbit Post｜9.54 Billion Liquidated in 24 Hours! Epic Long Liquidation
Latest heatmap data: 9.54 billion USD liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, with 178,000 liquidations. 92% were long liquidations, shorts only accounted for 8%. This is a large-scale long squeeze caused by rising macro interest rate expectations.
By coin structure, ETH is the hardest hit this round, with 287 million liquidated, 92.4% of which were long liquidations; BTC follows closely with 197 million, 90.6% long liquidations. Other altcoins and second-tier coins combined liquidated 149 million, also 92.3% longs. ETH leveraged long positions are more concentrated and sensitive to interest rates; once macro negative news hits, the stop-loss cascade is much stronger than BTC.
The largest single liquidation came from Binance BTC perpetual long, amounting to 12.0347 million USD, indicating that large leveraged longs buying at the top were directly wiped out.
Market sentiment interpretation:
Previously, leveraged longs betting on inflation easing and positioning for a rebound were almost entirely liquidated; high-leverage bottom-fishing funds were completely discouraged, and the market is reluctant to easily leverage long positions in the short term;
Short liquidations are very few, shorts have not collectively taken profits and exited, indicating the short side pressure is not yet fully released;
BTC is relatively more resilient than ETH, highlighting its capital flight-to-safety attribute, but overall market confidence is severely damaged, and bottom-fishing willingness has cooled significantly.
Tonight's PPI data is a key variable; if PPI continues to exceed expectations, there will be a new round of long liquidations; if data falls back, it will usher in a window for sentiment recovery. Tesla's deliveries exceeded expectations, but don't rush to include profit recovery just yet.
On October 2, the company announced third-quarter deliveries exceeding 486,000 vehicles, while also revealing energy storage deployments of 13.7 GWh. I believe this latter figure should not be treated as just incidental news. When assessing profitability, besides how well the cars sell, we also need to see how much gross profit per unit the energy storage business actually retains.
The second quarter serves as a ready reminder: energy storage deployments increased, energy business revenue grew year-over-year, but gross margin declined. Shipment volume tells us how many products reached customers but does not explain how prices, costs, and related expenses changed. Directly converting GWh into profit, just like estimating profit solely based on car sales, risks making the same mistake.
When the earnings report comes out on October 21, I will look at the automotive and energy businesses separately. If gross margins improve on both sides, the basis for profit recovery will be more solid; if only the delivery numbers look good but profits are eaten up by expenses, then we need to patiently find the reasons. The long-term story of robots cannot answer these questions about current quarter operations.
New businesses are certainly worth looking forward to. But every time actual profits are under pressure, pushing the discussion automatically to a more distant future makes me a bit anxious.
How much profit have the already delivered cars and energy storage products actually made? After the report is released, let's first answer this question.
#Tesla deliveries exceed expectations, profit recovery becomes the focus $SOON SOON This wave, I reviewed it again using the four-cycle matrix.
From 0.17 to 0.56, more than doubled in a month, now back to 0.29.
Many people ask if it has bottomed out — my conclusion is: not yet.
The reason is not the K-line, but the chips.
▸ 15-minute wick rebound, volume, OI, and price all failed the "rebound closed-loop" verification
▸ Retail long-short ratio 1.42 leans bullish, but large holders' net long-short ratio is -15.6% — retail is bullish, smart money is shorting
▸ The most critical: 20.24 million tokens unlock after 8 days (10/23), accounting for 3.4% of circulating market value
In the last 6 unlocks, the average 14-day drop was -16.9%
So at this position, the probability that the rebound is a "bull trap" is greater than a "reversal."
My habit for review is: first fix the direction of the large cycle, then let the signals of the small cycle obey it.
Not to be led by a single 15-minute bullish candle.
The only signal truly worth waiting for is:
Volume expansion stabilizing above 0.3105, while OI begins to expand positively.
Missing any of the three conditions does not count as a reversal.
—— A review of the market without emotion#Coinbase integrates Deribit, can Q3 revenue improve? ASML's Q3 revenue hits a new high, and whether future demand will materialize is testing risk appetite. UNI, as a high-beta altcoin, cannot remain unaffected; I tend to believe the short-term weakness is not over yet.
From the capital perspective, the current price at 7.028 is down 6.1%, with a volume of 17.454 million and open interest of 5.699 million. The positive fee rate of 0.01% indicates bulls are still holding positions, but the 4-hour retracement from the high is already 23.59%. Although buyers dominate the 1-hour by 1.38 times, the rebound looks more like short covering rather than new long entries.
If it rebounds to 7.135, consider light short positions with a stop loss at 7.318 and a target of 6.695; if it falls to around 6.648 and buying pressure increases, try going long with a stop loss at 6.512 and a target of 7.012. Do not exceed 5% position size per trade.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$UNI #TSMC Q3 revenue hits a new high, profitability performance to be revealed
#ASML Q3 revenue hits a new high, can future demand be realized?
$UNI 台积电又炸了。AI根本不是泡沫！连续第六个季度利润创新高。
三季度营收1.49万亿新台币，同比暴涨51%，净利润预计7463亿，同比飙65%。什么概念？一个季度赚的钱，比去年全年某些头部加密项目总市值还多。
但真正刺激的是：台积电现在等于AI世界的“印钞许可证”。
英伟达、AMD、苹果，管你谁家的AI芯片，最后都得排队进台积电的产线。更关键的是CoWoS先进封装——全球八成以上的AI加速器芯片全靠这条路线集成，而台积电几乎独占产能。这就叫卡脖子，只不过这次被卡的是硅谷巨头。
2nm制程从二季度的3%贡献直接拉到三季度11%，苹果和AMD抢着上。5nm以下先进制程营收占比冲到71%，四季度奔75%去。产品结构往高毛利方向死命迁移，定价权强到离谱。
台积电业绩是AI算力需求最硬的晴雨表。芯片代工端都在疯狂扩产，下游AI应用和算力网络的想象空间只会更大。链上AI、DePIN算力、去中心化推理这些叙事，底层逻辑正在被实打实的半导体数据一遍遍夯实。
台积电用财报证明了一件事：AI不是泡沫，是印钞机。问题是，你手里有沾边的筹码吗？#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 $TSM CPI has been released, let's verify it against yesterday's projection. Last night at 20:30, the September CPI was published. First, let's present the actual data, then verify each item against yesterday's projection. Actual values (BLS official; expected values according to CNN report, listed separately): - Overall CPI: year-over-year +3.7% (expected 3.6%, previous 3.4%), month-over-month +0.6% - Core CPI: year-over-year +2.6% (expected 2.5%), month-over-month +0.3% (expected 0.2%) - Gasoline: month-over-month +9.1%, year-over-year +34.2%, contributing more than half of the month-over-month increase Conclusion: Above expectations, and core CPI also exceeded — this falls into the "above expectations" scenario projected yesterday. Verification against projection: 1. Did BTC come under pressure as projected? Yes. Before the release, BTC was around $83,860, and within 5 minutes after the release, it dropped to $82,731. Matt Hougan from Bitwise commented early after the data release that he originally thought it would drop 3-5%, but it actually only dropped about 1% — the decline was milder than some expected. 2. Was the support around 82000 effective? The 82000 level was breached, so this time it cannot simply be recorded as "support effective." Next time, the projection needs to clarify in advance: whether to judge support failure by intraday touches, closing position, or duration. 3. Reaction of US bonds and the dollar? After the release, US bond yields rose, and the dollarRevenue: Most likely to be flat, difficult to exceed expectations.
• The company guides revenue at about $12.86 billion, while the market consensus expectation is about $13.02 billion, approximately 1.2% higher than the guidance.
• Historically, Netflix's actual revenue usually fluctuates within ±0.5% of expectations (Q2 was $12.56 billion vs. expected $12.57 billion). If this expectation does not converge toward the guidance, revenue is more likely to slightly underperform.
Concerns:
• Viewing time in the first half of the year only grew about 2%, with growth mainly driven by price increases rather than user engagement.
• There was a one-time tax expense in Q3 last year, causing EPS to be significantly below expectations; such surprises have occurred before Q3.
• Profit margins are affected by the quarterly rhythm of content and marketing expenses.
My view: EPS is expected to beat by about 65–70%, revenue to beat by about 35–45%.
#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight PONS just said yesterday that the data rebounded, but I see the data shrank back a bit today.
Compared to October 12 and October 13, the latest daily ring ratios of platform fees and protocol income decreased by 30.83% and 35.98%, respectively.
With data performing so poorly, why did the coin price rise yesterday? I think it was more driven by news.
Yesterday, there was a rumor that Robinhood is preparing $100 million to support Robinhood Chain, which caused many ecosystem coins to take off. Whether it's true or not, I don't know, but quite a few. Crypto media picked it up again, which indeed stimulated the market.
But to be honest, improving core data is the key. You can't rely on news to drive buying every time; if it happens too often, the effect diminishes. It's like the boy who cried wolf, and the truth will eventually be revealed.
The effect was so good yesterday that I guess the data on the 14th might improve a bit. The market is too bad now, the overall market is like this, let alone any meme coins. #Circle earnings report is coming, can stablecoin growth deliver returns? Maji went from a whale to a small fish in ten days, and the cost was too high!
Once a big player in the crypto circle, he was forced to the edge of a cliff by high leverage. Data shows a total loss exceeding $36.57 million, with another $4.43 million lost in the past 7 days, leaving only $279,800 in the account. Currently, he is holding a full position of 2,100 $ETH long, with a position value of $5.07 million, opened at 2,515, actual leverage over 36x, unrealized loss of $200,000, and funding fees accumulated to $1.36 million. The most fatal is the liquidation price at 2,397, with available margin already zero, purely relying on market movement to survive.
Combined with the macro pressure of the US September CPI rising to 3.7%, ETH is fluctuating with the market. This kind of extreme naked long is like licking blood on the edge of a knife. From whale to small fish in ten days, high leverage amplified greed and accelerated destruction. If a whale ignores position management when bottom fishing, it can also instantly go to zero. Don't blindly trust big players' games; the survival rule is always light positions and risk control. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $57 million outflow in one week, are DOGE whales withdrawing or rotating?
Scene of the case: two conflicting clues.
Clue one: In the past week, $DOGE spot capital flow was a net outflow of $57 million, with the price dropping 8.9%, hovering around 0.085. Clue two: Around October 6, reports tracked whale addresses accumulating about $112 million in purchases.
One is going out, the other coming in. Who is telling the truth?
With over a decade of auditing experience, my take is: both are true, but they refer to different things. The $57 million outflow, scattered and rapid, is mostly small to mid-sized positions scared off by the market; the $112 million inflow, slow and heavy, is usually institutions or whales accumulating in batches at low levels.
This is called "rotation."
"Big cleanup" of chips
In financial markets, the healthiest rallies are rarely one-off; they come with intense volatility and cleansing. When the price hits the key support at 0.085, panic causes the less resolute holders to surrender their chips. This $57 million outflow is like removing sand from the foundation.
Meanwhile, the $112 million inflow is the cement quietly entering at this low level. Whales are not rushing to push prices up; they need enough space and time to gather sufficient chips. This "low-level absorption" behavior is often more noteworthy than a simple price rise.
0.085: The dividing line between bulls and bears #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ 溜达鹅今天翻财报，被闪迪的数据惊到了。 2026财年第四季度（截至7月3日），闪迪营收$89.65亿，环比增长51%。GAAP净利润$69亿，稀释每股收益$43.97。Non-GAAP每股收益$39.25。 一个季度赚$69亿净利润，什么概念？相当于每天赚$7,600万。 更夸张的是增长速度。 环比增长51%，其中约1/3来自销量增长，2/3来自价格上涨。也就是说，闪迪不光卖得多了，还卖得贵了——而且客户还在抢着买。 为什么卖得贵还有人抢？因为AI。 AI数据中心建设正在创造对企业级NAND闪存存储的结构性需求。训练一个大模型需要海量数据存储，推理阶段需要更快的存储读取速度。AI模型越大，需要的存储越多。而NAND闪存，就是AI时代的"粮仓"。 闪迪的数据中心业务就是最好的证明。上一季度（Q3），数据中心收入$14.67亿，同比暴增645%。这不是增长，是爆炸。 而且这已经是闪迪连续第三个季度大幅超预期。内存短缺和供应紧张持续，价格一直在涨。客户不是在选哪家便宜，是在抢哪家有货。 闪迪自己对未来的预期更激进。 公司预计NAND市场规模在2027年将达到The kitchen stove hasn't been turned off yet, but the ledger is already on the table—168 billion in single-quarter revenue, a sharp 46% quarter-on-quarter increase. This pot of broth is boiling fiercer than any I've seen in my 20 years. But as a five-star veteran chef, I only ask one question: The broth is richer, but have the firewood costs been accounted for?
For the second consecutive quarter, the books have turned from red to green, with a gross margin just over 10% and positive quarterly cash flow. What does this mean in the kitchen? It means a dish has finally been made without losses, leaving a bit of sauce at the bottom of the plate. But any cook knows, a 10% gross margin is like balancing on a tightrope: rent, labor, gas—if any of these rise even slightly, this dish instantly turns into a loss.
More glaring is the turnover rate—its growth rate has slowed compared to the previous quarter. The storefronts keep expanding, but customers are eating slower, indicating the front of house is growing while the kitchen is getting clogged. Signature dishes can hold the scene, but what truly eats into profits are the ever-burning high-powered computing stoves and the two super spicy peppers continuously added: chips and data centers.
The ratio is the killer. Revenue is the main dish, computing power is the firewood in the stove, and chips are the chili peppers. The spicier the chili, the more the main dish’s original flavor is masked. What chefs fear most isn’t customers not coming, but the stoves multiplying and dishes getting pricier, until the whole table’s bill can’t even cover the gas.
Several Michelin-starred peers are fighting over the same batch of truffles, only to find the purchase price is already higher than the menu price—that’s the current state of this pot.
There’s another trick: flavored profits are plated with trimmed edges. The real ingredient losses going into the pot—R&D, depreciation, prepaid long-term contracts—aren’t written on the tasting menu. Good plating is skill, but customers judge by the spoonful they taste.
That so-called 2 trillion full set menu pricing, in October, invited tasters into private rooms, serving a flavored version, not the original. The pinch of salt that presses hardest on the tongue in the original is the ever-increasing computing power cost. Whether this price can hold depends not on how pretty the menu looks, but on this dish being served for three consecutive quarters, with turnover steady and broth not turning bitter.
The walk-in customers at the next table, following the orders, add more as they smell the aroma; the linked assets’ heat looks strong, but the cooking time is always controlled by someone else’s stove. Before picking up the chopsticks, first see clearly what’s in your bowl: is it the main dish, the seasoning, or that spoonful of super spicy chili? Eating chili as a meal will burn your stomach through.
This pot knows best: steadily serving a 10% gross margin and sustaining turnover is true skill; piling on firewood to create heat is smoke, not fragrance. #anthropicq3revenue16.8bAortic dissection is silent; the only sign is that the curve on the monitor sharply drops nearly eight points during trading.
On October 15, the heart of the South Korean market was bleeding on stage. The composite index plunged nearly 8% intraday, with the wound almost covering the entire anterior wall; Hynix and Samsung, the two main blood supply trunks, simultaneously went into spasm, the defibrillator pads (sidecar mechanism) were applied to the chest for the second time, the current was delivered, but the rhythm could not be restored.
The Nikkei 225 fell 4%, indicating ischemia had crossed the pericardium and spread to adjacent organs, with collateral circulation fully decompensated. The Nasdaq dropped 1.88%, meaning the distal embolus finally reached the left ventricle. Meanwhile, U.S. chip stocks declined for the sixth consecutive trading day—note, this is no longer an acute event. Acute ischemia causes pain and alarms; six days of continuous low perfusion is painless, causing myocardial fibrosis quietly, and by the time you hear it, it’s gallop rhythm.
Hot inflation data means systemic vascular resistance is up, afterload surges, and every ejection must fight higher pressure. Rising AI financing costs mean extracorporeal circulation perfusion flow is quietly reduced, but surgery continues and oxygen debt accumulates. Valuation is ventricular wall tension—the higher it is, the more oxygen consumed; storage price wars are aortic valve regurgitation, blood pushed out flows back, wasting part of each contraction’s work.
ASML’s equipment orders remain strong, which on imaging equals a coronary angiography report stating “main trunk patent.” But angiography looks at the pipes, ultrasound looks at the pump. Pipes are clear but the pump doesn’t move—the lesion is not in the vessels but in the myocardium itself. What the market is doing now is moving the probe from the vessel wall to the ventricular wall.
TSMC’s performance is the intraoperative frozen section cut by this scalpel. Only two things need to be distinguished: is it tachycardia—a rate-driven valuation reset, functional and reversible, adjustable with medication; or is the myocardium already necrotic—chip profit expectations systemically weakening, organic, requiring open-heart bypass surgery. Before the biopsy results, any large-scale operation is a blind puncture, and blind punctures most easily damage the conduction bundle.
The mapping target linked to Nasdaq and the chip chain now acts as a transplanted heart. Once the donor is ischemic, the recipient immediately rejects it; no one waits for pathology reports before starting anti-rejection drugs.
Price crashes are always just symptoms. What truly chills the spine is—the monitor alarms always come from the myocardium that still has electrical activity. #kospidropsnearly8%Money votes with its feet
Three signals from the funding side, none showing any favor. First, the funding rate: on 10/13 it was still +0.0062% long position fee, turned negative on 10/14, and today has slid to -0.0041%—shorts have started to consistently collect rent, the sentiment steering wheel has turned. Second, on the open interest side: today saw a net outflow of $86.91 million, total market contract open interest shrank back to $7.6 billion; over 7 days, the cumulative net inflow is only about $3 million, all the positions added during the rise were paid back during the fall, meaning a whole week of effort was wasted. Third, the US stock $BTC ETF net outflow in October has exceeded $450 million, just last week alone $679 million, about eight thousand coins, were withdrawn; the $65.4 million outflow on 10/12 came entirely from IBIT under BlackRock—if even BlackRock is pulling out, bulls still trying to bottom-fish here should first ask who is carrying their sedan chair. Oh, the seller is still shouting on TV that the bear market is over and $100,000 is back. Calls are free, withdrawals are real money, the market has already answered with the candlesticks. I just came across a post that made me feel a bit amused yet somewhat bittersweet. Have you ever had that feeling: your mainstream coins are all in the red, while altcoins seem forgotten in the corner? A friend shared his positions—BTC and ETH both showing floating profits, but DOGE and PEPE have been red all the way down. He joked that he treated the junk coins like lottery tickets, luckily with a light position. This statement is actually more worth pondering than the losses themselves. The market has a very smooth logical loop for junk coins. When BTC rises, it means funds feed the mainstream first, altcoins get drained, so their drop is expected. When BTC is sideways, funds are cautious, no one dares to move, altcoins have no support, so their drop is also normal. When BTC falls, panic selling hits junk coins first, altcoins fall even harder, which is still normal. Each statement sounds right, but combined they mean: regardless of rising, falling, or sideways, altcoins can't find their own reason to rise. Behind this is not just simple sector rotation, but an issue of emotional pricing power. When the market only wants to give a premium to BTC and ETH, risk appetite doesn't truly spread out. It's not that funds don't see altcoins, they see them but are unwilling to bear that uncertainty. Tokens like DOGE and PEPE rely on attention, sentiment, and marginal buying. Once these three contract simultaneously, the rebound becomes very light and short-lived. There is also a more bullish path: if BTC stabilizes and slowly raises its lows, ETH starts to follow, then the market will give altcoins some room to test and err again. At that time, the first to move are usually not the worst junk coins, but those with communities, liquidity, and narratives. Junk coin rebounds usually lag and are highly dependent onThe market collectively took a hit, but ZK quietly surged 15 points. How much gold content does V God’s "milk" really have?
Today, the entire crypto market is still paying off CPI debts, with total market cap dropping about 3.4%. Bitcoin is gasping around 80,000, yet the top gainer is ZK (ZKsync): it surged from 0.0148 to 0.0185 in 24 hours, a counter-trend +15%, quite a divergence.
The trigger is the new catalyst. V God publicly congratulated the zkSync Airbender team on X today, saying zkEVM’s "speed battle has been completely won," and the next focus should be entirely on security. This Airbender Prime achieved 99% proof within 10 seconds for 7,200 mainnet blocks on a single Blackwell GPU, a solid narrative.
My take: this is a typical "technical milestone + leader endorsement" emotional pulse. A few days ago, the founder proposed a buyback, setting the stage. It’s reasonable for funds to ride this wave. But be clear, its 24-hour volume is just over $2 million, market cap under $200 million, RSI at 75, price breaking above the Bollinger upper band. The market cap is small, easy to pump and dump, and chasing with this volume has very low tolerance for error.
Watch two signals: whether it can hold above the 0.018 upper band with volume instead of pulling back after a spike; and whether the ZK ecosystem has follow-up verification progress after "shifting to security." Relying on the hype of a single tweet usually doesn’t last long. DYOR, not investment advice.
#ZK #ZKsync #Layer2$ETH CPI data released, overall inflation exceeded expectations, core inflation rose simultaneously, and the Fed's excuse of "only relying on energy price increases" was completely torn apart. The market responded with a sharp drop; what should we expect next?
After the data came out, Bitcoin $BTC directly fell below 82,000. ETF funds were already flowing out, and now with tightening macro expectations, buyers dare not enter. If 80,000 doesn't hold today, the next support is 78,000.
Ethereum $ETH is the worst hit; it was already the weakest among the three. ETF continues to bleed, staking yields can't keep up with U.S. Treasuries, and institutions are not stepping in at the bottom. When Bitcoin weakens, it falls the hardest, and today it continued to decline, likely hard to stabilize in the short term.
Gold $XAUT also plunged, spot gold dropped nearly 2%. Core inflation exceeding expectations pushed up real interest rates, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rose together, and non-yielding gold can only take a hit in the short term. But gold quickly rebounded today because ETF allocation inflows continue, and central banks have not stopped.
The biggest difference between it and Bitcoin is that Bitcoin's buyers are on-chain whales, while gold's buyers are central banks and sovereign funds. The latter's capital attributes and patience are on a completely different level. Hold your Bitcoin and Ethereum spot positions firmly, unload all short-term leverage. Gold is under short-term pressure but fundamentally stronger than Bitcoin. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #USCPI exceeds expectations, rising to 3.7%, PPI test coming tonight #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profit performance to be revealed 💸Capital Confession Session: Who's Really Buying, Who's Just Pretending to Be Excited?
$BTC: Contract net inflow in 24h is 194 million, spot +44.7 million, short-term both green. But don't rush to pop the champagne—weekly -2.8 billion, monthly -5.3 billion, 12h still -102 million. This 194 million is just a recent rebound in the last few hours, more like an oversold bounce test, not a reversal signal. 🩹
$ETH: Scene of schizophrenia. Contract +57.55 million, spot -110 million. Leveraged traders are betting on a rebound, holders keep running. Both sides fighting, big money lacks consensus. If spot keeps selling, contracts will eventually be dragged down. ⚔️
$SOL: Contract -16.2 thousand, basically flat; spot +33.39 million. Someone is quietly accumulating, no one dares to leverage. Weekly spot +20.06 million, the only mainstream to turn positive. Dollar-cost averaging logic > contract speculation. 🌱
Summary: BTC tests inflow, ETH longs and shorts clash, SOL spot quietly buys. Three ailments, one common point—weekly and monthly charts are bleeding, big money remains cautious. Although BTC is strong, funds are just testing the waters, not going all in. 🚨
Conclusion: You can watch the rebound, but don't rush to call a reversal. Money is testing the temperature, not jumping into the pool. 🧊#US September CPI YoY rises to 3.7%, core inflation exceeds expectations #TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, profit performance to be revealed #TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed TSMC's Q3 revenue reached NT$1.49 trillion, a year-on-year surge of 50%, setting a new historical high. The full earnings report and briefing will be at 14:00 today, with profit and gross margin being the main focus.
But don't just focus on TSMC; this AI chip craze is actually tightly linked with our crypto space.
Recently, when semiconductors sneeze, Bitcoin catches a cold. Micron and Hynix fell, BTC slid directly from 83,000 to 81,600, and ETH dropped nearly 4%. Simply put, the money speculating on AI and crypto is from the same group—when risk appetite tightens, tech stocks and crypto assets get hit together.
TSMC's guidance tonight is essentially a "thermometer" for AI market sentiment. If the gross margin hits the 67% ceiling, it means demand for computing power is still burning hot, which is positive for crypto sentiment; conversely, if the guidance is conservative, funds may continue to withdraw from high-risk assets.
Keep an eye on 14:00; TSMC's earnings briefing could be the prelude to tonight's Bitcoin direction choice. $BTC $xTSEM #TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed TSMC delivers an impressive "half report card": Q3 revenue approximately NT$1.494 trillion, up 50.9% year-over-year and 17.6% quarter-over-quarter, setting a single-quarter record; September monthly revenue reached NT$511.857 billion, soaring 54.6% year-over-year. The numbers are explosive, but this is on the revenue side; profit details will be disclosed at the October 15 earnings call.
The record revenue is understandable, fundamentally driven by three combined forces: Nvidia, AMD, and other AI chips fully occupying advanced process capacity, with CoWoS packaging still a bottleneck; Apple's new A/M series supporting the high-end consumer segment; 2nm moving from trial production to mass production, starting to contribute to revenue. In short, customers are not bargaining over price but competing for capacity.
However, profit is the real test. The company’s own Q3 gross margin guidance is only 65%–67%, lower than Q2’s 67.7%. The reason is straightforward: early depreciation and yield costs during 2nm ramp-up dilute margins by about 3–4 percentage points; overseas plants in the US and Japan have higher costs, diluting margins by 2–4 percentage points long-term. So the market is really watching three numbers: whether the gross margin can hold at 65%, whether Q4 guidance will increase quarter-over-quarter, and the capital expenditure outlook for 2027.Today's breadth data is painful: Among 283 coins in USDT perpetual contracts, only 19 are rising, with a median of -7.32%. $BTC fell 2.74%, seemingly "resistant to falling," but actually it's just falling slower, not not falling.
My three actions today:
1. No adding positions. In a market with a median of -7%, "cheaper because it fell" are the most expensive four words.
2. Cut leveraged positions first. Leverage amplifies the median decline; -7% multiplied by leverage is not a correction, it's an accident.
3. Watch ETH, not BTC. ETH fell 5.43%, SOL fell 3.98%—if the decline continues, altcoins and the main market have an order; the main market is just lagging.
The lesson is not that the market must fall, but that in a down market, "holding" and "being held" are two different things. I don't hate losing money; I hate not having control over my positions.
On days like today with a median of -7%, whose position will you cut first? Hold BTC, or look at the ETH in your hand first? $BTC $SLX
Not optimistic, not optimistic at all!
The institution incubating this project is about to enter liquidation, so what's the point of playing this game.
Solstice (the project issuing the SLX token) was incubated by **Deus X Capital**.
Deus X Capital founded Solstice Labs in 2024 and provided it with funding and resource support; it is one of the projects incubated under its umbrella.
Currently, this institution has announced it will shut down and enter liquidation (planned to complete by January 2027), but the SLX project itself was still incubated by it.
---
What this institution does:
Deus X Capital is a crypto and fintech investment company supported by a family office, classified as an institutional investor. It was established in 2023, manages about $1 billion in assets, and its main businesses include investment, project incubation, and related operations. It is considered a relatively legitimate professional institution in the crypto field.There are some reasons to hold, so let's ask again
If the reason to buy $PEPE is to wait for sentiment to return, I think we should admit that our judgment is about market attention.
You can't say it's popular when it doesn't rise, then suddenly change your tune when it falls, saying you should hold it as a long-term project.
I'm more concerned about whether trading can remain active after the hype dies down.
If more and more people are discussing it but the price still can't push up, don't rush to explain it as having more room ahead. After all, there is real money between attention and buying.
For $SUI, I watch out for an illusion: just because the project is progressing well, you think you don't need to watch the supply during the holding period.
It has a total cap of 10 billion tokens, but tokens are still gradually released as planned, so the circulating supply will change.
This doesn't mean that release necessarily causes a price drop, but with the same demand, the tradable quantity might differ.
Being optimistic about the ecosystem is one thing; deciding at what valuation to buy is another matter to consider separately.
For $AVAX, you need to be careful not to mistake staking rewards as price protection.
Its staking rewards come from new issuance, while network fees have a separate burn mechanism.
The number of coins increases, but the account value can still decline.
So I won't ignore whether the original buying reasons have changed just because it can generate yield. Rewards can be counted as income but can't answer why you still want to hold.CPI data has been released, overall inflation exceeded expectations, and core inflation rose simultaneously. The Fed's excuse of "only relying on energy price increases" has been completely torn apart. The market responded with a sharp drop; what should we expect next?
After the data came out, Bitcoin $BTC directly fell below 82,000. ETF funds were already flowing out, and now with tighter macro expectations, buyers dare not enter. If 80,000 doesn't hold today, the next support is 78,000.
Ethereum $ETH is the worst hit; it was already the weakest among the three. ETF continues to bleed, staking yields can't compete with U.S. Treasuries, and institutions are not stepping in at the bottom. When Bitcoin weakens, it falls the hardest. It continues to decline today, and it is estimated to be difficult to stabilize in the short term.
Gold $XAUt also fell sharply, with spot gold dropping nearly 2%. Core inflation exceeding expectations pushed up real interest rates, and both the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rose together. Non-yielding gold can only take a hit in the short term. But gold quickly rebounded today because ETF allocation funds are still flowing in, and central banks have not stopped.
The biggest difference between it and Bitcoin is that Bitcoin's buyers are on-chain whales, while gold's buyers are central banks and sovereign funds. The capital attributes and patience of the latter are on a completely different level. Hold your Bitcoin and Ethereum spot positions firmly, and unload all short-term leverage. Gold is under short-term pressure but fundamentally stronger than Bitcoin. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 The US dollar surged. Bitcoin was dumped. The bet on rate hikes doubled.
September CPI is 3.7%, August was only 3.4%. Core is 2.6%, August was only 2.4%.
Both numbers are higher than expected.
The biggest increase was in gasoline, 9.1%. One person bears half the increase.
The first thing to break is not the coin.
It's the idea that "Bitcoin is only for risk speculation."
When I saw the gasoline number, my first reaction was to rush to fill up.
Then I found it was even more expensive than last week.
People are like that.
Alright, back to the main topic.
The Federal Reserve already raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16, now at 3.75%–4.00%.
Will there be another one? The next meeting is October 27–28.
Before the CPI, the market was betting about 20% chance of a hike. When the data came out, it became 47%.
In one trading session, it doubled.
The two-year US Treasury yield is 4.872%, up 7 basis points that day. The dollar also rose.
Look clearly:
Bitcoin pays no interest.
The two-year US Treasury pays you 4.87%.
That's all there is to it.
Now comes the hardest part.
I have a bit of a bias, this round of decline is not the coin's fault at all, it's that everyone suddenly remembered interest rates.
So I wrote two consecutive articles about interest rates yesterday, because this is the key focus now.
A few days ago, those shouting "next stop 100,000" have all gone silent these past two days.
And people who usually don't follow financial news opened accounts for the first time this week, first checked deposit rates, and then never came back. #台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 台积电Q3营收创历史新高，主要受益AI芯片代工热潮。但市场更关注盈利质量：新工艺爬坡、海外建厂推高成本，毛利率能否守住65%-67%、利润能否匹配营收存悬念。前期AI预期已充分消化，资金选择在财报落地前先行兑现，因此股价出现回调。#奈飞增长或放缓，广告业务成新看点 #TSMCOct15Earnings
سجل إيرادات TSMC، قبل 15 أكتوبر، كان السوق قد استوعبه بالفعل. إذا انتظرنا حتى يوم التقرير المالي لرؤيته كخبر مفاجئ إيجابي، فقد يكون إيقاع الاستثمار قد تأخر.
في 8 أكتوبر، أعلنت الشركة بالفعل عن بيانات إيرادات سبتمبر: زيادة سنوية بنسبة 54.6%، وانخفاض طفيف شهريًا بنسبة 0.6%. هذا التباين يحمل دلالة عميقة — الاتجاه القوي طويل الأمد للنمو لا يعني بالضرورة أن كل شهر يجب أن يسجل رقمًا قياسيًا جديدًا مقارنة بالشهر السابق. التقلبات الطفيفة الشهرية لا تكفي لهز السرد الكبير لطلب الذكاء 一早起床就是全线飘绿😵，这次偏高的CPI数据导致Crypto市场普遍回落，很明显是跟AI股一样被放进同一个风险估值框架里了，像RWA这类板块跌幅直接超过6%。阿简认为当前市场关心的不是$BTC 或$ETH 或某个token，而是利率、融资成本和高估值资产还能不能撑住
我之前也强调过在当前这样的高利率经济环境里，加密资产的估值本就是在走钢丝，对市场的情绪会特别敏感，短线资金也最爱先挑这类资产下刀，如果你长持的某个token没有足够的收入支撑，在这种环境下就危险咯#美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 道指跌0.09%，几乎纹丝不动；纳指跌了1.88%。同一个交易日，两个世界。
把这俩数放一起就看明白了，钱没跑出美股，是从科技股搬去了医药和必需消费。信息技术板块单日跌3%，医疗保健反倒涨了2.4%，礼来、默克涨了三四个点，典型的防守换仓。
源头还是油。霍尔木兹这十来天袭船明显变多，10月11号单日过峡原油只剩290万桶左右，几天前还有两千多万桶。布伦特一度站上106美元，汽油同比涨了三成多，9月CPI同比3.7%，高于预期。10年期美债收益率冲上5.2%以上，两年期逼近4.9%，纽约联储的威廉姆斯也说今年再加一次息说得通。
估值贵的资产最怕这个组合。英伟达跌3.2%，Meta跌3.3%，费城半导体指数五天跌了一成多，CoreWeave一天掉了15%。
我倾向于认为，只要油价还在百元上方，科技股的反弹都只能当反弹看。今天先看台积电财报，AI需求要是讲得够硬，半导体有望喘口气；讲不硬，这轮调整可能还没走完。再往后就是10月27-28号的FOMC。
xdm科技仓位可以先拿着，逢低加仓。这种行情少折腾，中期选举快到了，美伊和俄乌战争或迎来重大拐点#沙特阿美总部遇袭，原油供应受关注 This CPI move has dashed the previous optimistic expectations of "peak rate hikes." #USCPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, and tonight PPI faces another test
In the short term, the macro trend is pulling downward. Rising rate hike expectations, higher US Treasury yields, and a stronger dollar mean risk assets are generally struggling. BTC will not strengthen independently.
But in the medium term, there is long-term capital buying around 80,000. The ETF's single-day counter-trend inflow of 167 million is no joke. It shows that there are buyers at this level.
At this stage, the biggest taboo is trying to guess the bottom. Whether 80,000 can hold depends on upcoming PPI data and the FOMC meeting. Before the direction is clear, position sizing is more important than judgment. # Netflix Growth May Slow, Advertising Business Becomes New Focus
Three key variables truly determine the ceiling of the advertising business
1. Whether advertising ARPU can catch up with subscription ARPU
Currently, the per-user revenue of ad-supported plans is still lower than that of ad-free plans. The gap may only narrow if advertiser budgets, programmatic buying, and live CPM increase.
2. Whether live and highly engaging content can be continuously supplied
Live content like NFL, WWE, MLB has higher ad monetization efficiency and can boost user engagement, but it is costly and concentrated in scheduling, requiring proof of sustainability.
3. Whether AI advertising systems can improve delivery efficiency
Netflix is advancing AI-driven ad planning, creative adaptation, audience insights, and data clean rooms, which relates to whether advertisers are willing to increase budgets long-term.
Investment Judgment
Netflix's advertising business is worth tracking, but one should not focus solely on the slogan of "doubling ad revenue." More importantly, watch: ad plan ARPU, advertiser retention, live ad fill rate, programmatic share, and whether profit margins are diluted by content costs.
If these indicators improve, the ad business will shift from a "story" to "cash flow"; if not, it will only continue to support valuation rather than become a performance inflection point. With the release of this CPI data, many people have actually realized that the previously repeated market narrative of "inflation easing, rate cuts by year-end" is not so certain.
Everyone had assumed that the Fed's rate hike cycle was already over, so assets like $BTC and $ETH, which have no interest, could maintain their valuations in a high interest rate environment.
However, this time both CPI and core inflation exceeded expectations, effectively overturning that premise—the US Treasury yields surged immediately, and now even holding risk-free US Treasuries can yield over 5%, so institutions naturally don't want to stay in volatile, cash-flow-negative crypto; the continuous net outflows from ETFs are the most concrete evidence.
The chain of liquidations only accelerated the decline a bit; the real problem is that most of the current buyers are still old whales in the crypto space doing short-term trades, who won't hold for more than a few months before exiting.
In contrast, gold fell but quickly rebounded, supported by long-term allocations from central banks and sovereign wealth funds; they don't gamble on whether rates will rise next month. This kind of capital resilience is something the crypto space simply can't match right now.
Investment carries risks, decisions should be made cautiously, and the above analysis is only a market viewpoint sharing, not any investment advice.
#US CPI unexpectedly rises to 3.7%, tonight PPI faces another test TSMC’s record revenue figures were already public before October 15, so presenting them as an unexpected positive surprise on earnings day may be missing the bigger picture.
On October 8, the company reported that September revenue increased 54.6% year-over-year but slipped 0.6% compared with August. This highlights an important distinction: strong annual growth doesn’t necessarily mean revenue will rise every month.
#TSMCOct15Earnings # TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed
Why so strong?
● Advanced process fully loaded: 3nm accounts for about 30% of wafer revenue, 5nm about 33%, and 7nm and below total 77%; 2nm has also started scaling (about 11%), mainly benefiting from Apple's A20 Pro/M6 chips and AMD Venice server CPUs.
● Continuous investment in AI infrastructure: Next-generation AI processors like NVIDIA Vera Rubin platform and AMD MI450X are queued up competing for capacity, and CoWoS advanced packaging is also in short supply.
● Capital expenditure significantly increased: Full-year capital expenditure for 2026 has been raised from $52-56 billion to $60-64 billion, with 70-80% invested in advanced processes. #US CPI unexpectedly rises to 3.7%, PPI faces another test tonight Brothers, my personal analysis is that oil prices will surge to $100 before the midterm elections. First, let's talk about the US-Iran situation. Recently, Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, then the Houthi forces in Yemen attacked Iran, and Iran continues to stir up the Middle East situation. Iran's goal is very clear: to control oil as a powerful weapon. Excluding seasonal factors, global demand for oil is roughly the same every year, but now that Iran controls the oil, global demand cannot be met, which will definitely affect everyone's lives, and this impact will reflect on countries. To solve this problem, there must be US-Iran talks, but the US has no sincere intention to negotiate. Currently, the US is still trying to find solutions, but the root cause remains in the Middle East. So oil prices definitely won't come down anytime soon and may even hit previous highs because Iran will surely try to finalize the talks before the midterm elections. Otherwise, once the midterms are over, the "King" will definitely attack. So oil prices may not continue to rise, but they certainly won't fall.
Now about Russia and Ukraine, the war has lasted almost five years. Now, even if they want to stop, they can't. One side must admit defeat. If they wanted to negotiate, Russia and Ukraine would have done so earlier and wouldn't have fought this long. Ukraine definitely wants to negotiate, but Russia refuses. So Ukraine attacks Russia's energy facilities daily to pressure Russia through other energy-concerned countries. But Russia has no other strengths except stubbornness. So no one knows when oil prices will come down. This is my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice $BTC #TSMCOct15Earnings TSMC's revenue record was already known to the market before October 15. Treating the same fact as a sudden positive surprise on the day of the earnings report might be a step behind the rhythm.
The company announced on October 8 that September revenue grew 54.6% year-over-year but declined 0.6% month-over-month. This contrast is quite interesting: strong long-term growth does not mean every month is higher than the previous oneFrom October 14 to 15, the crypto market experienced a sharp plunge. Bitcoin fell below $81,000, hitting an intraday low of about $80,500; Ethereum dropped below $2,400, once reaching approximately $2,317 on October 15, with a nearly 5% decline over the past week. Data from Coinglass shows that the total market liquidation exceeded $1.1 billion, with Ethereum long positions liquidated at about $330 million, the highest among all cryptocurrencies. Notably, this was not an isolated "crypto-only event." During the same period, the US Nasdaq index closed down about 1.9%, the S&P 500 fell about 1.1%, gold dropped below $4,100, silver plunged sharply, and South Korean memory chip giant stocks crashed suddenly. This time, crypto assets behaved more like "high beta assets" in the global synchronized deleveraging of risk assets. 2. Direct trigger: CPI exceeded expectations, renewed hawkish rate hike expectations Let's look at the data. The US September CPI released on October 14 showed a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, higher than the market expectation of 3.6% and above August's 3.4%, with a month-on-month rise of 0.6%. Core CPI excluding food and energy rose 2.6% year-on-year (expected 2.5%) and 0.3% month-on-month (expected 0.2%). Gasoline prices contributed more than half of the monthly increase, driven by rising oil prices due to Middle East tensions (Brent crude oil once rose to about $105). Why this CPI data is particularly critical. The key lies in the changed policy background: the Federal Reserve just completed its first rate hike of 2023 in September, and the market was previously debating "whether#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓
What I find truly worth looking at in TSMC's earnings report is not how much revenue has increased, but how long the AI business can continue to thrive.
The Q3 revenue has been announced, reaching NT$1.49 trillion, a year-on-year growth of about 50%, hitting a new high. This figure indicates that demand for AI chips remains strong, but it also means the market had already set high expectations for today's earnings report.
Next, focus on three areas: first, the gross margin—whether it can remain stable under the pressure of expanding 2nm process capacity; second, CoWoS advanced packaging capacity—whether AI chip orders can continue to support growth; third, the demand outlook for Q4 and 2027.
My view is that the AI industry cannot be easily underestimated for now, but we also shouldn't blindly chase the stock just because of performance growth. TSMC's good performance only proves strong demand in the supply chain, not that all AI concept stocks are worth buying.
Especially now, the market is trading not just on current profits but also on growth expectations for the next few years. If the earnings beat expectations but management does not provide stronger signals for future growth, the stock price may still surge and then fall back.
Tonight, I am more focused on management's statements about future orders and capital expenditures. What truly determines how far the AI market can go is not how much money is made today, but whether it can continue to exceed expectations next year.
What do you think? Will this TSMC earnings report continue to fuel the AI market, or is it a case of good news being priced in and funds taking the opportunity to exit? #TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits New High, Profit Performance Yet to Be Revealed The market already knew about TSMC's revenue record before October 15. Treating the same fact as a sudden positive surprise on the earnings day might be a bit late in the rhythm.
The company announced on October 8 that September revenue grew 54.6% year-over-year but declined 0.6% month-over-month. This contrast is quite interesting: strong long-term growth does not mean every month is higher than the previous one. Small monthly fluctuations are also insufficient to conclude the overall AI demand.
After the monthly revenue was disclosed in advance, the focus of the earnings report should shift forward. How the next quarter's orders are arranged, which demands can be sustained, and whether customers are pulling orders ahead are more informative than repeating the already public total figures.
In the conference call, I especially want to hear about the timing distribution of orders. If customers place orders early to lock in supply, and the subsequent demand expands in sync with actual usage, the implications for the next few quarters are different. It is still unclear which situation applies. This question is worth keeping.
Being optimistic about TSMC doesn't mean expecting only good news at every step. Strong companies also face changes in order rhythms. What really makes me cautious is that people increasingly need bigger growth numbers to be satisfied, yet no one asks what can still exceed expectations next quarter. For this earnings report, I want to hear more about follow-up arrangements and less about celebrating the existing records.
#TSMC Q3 Revenue Hits New High, What Other Highlights Are There in the October 15 Earnings Report? Today the overall market remains weak and volatile, with mainstream coins under pressure, but a few small and mid-cap coins have developed independent trends, which is quite interesting.
The most obvious is $WAL, a decentralized storage project in the Sui ecosystem. Its 24-hour trading volume and price increase are both very strong, showing clear signs of concentrated capital inflow, mainly driven by the narrative of AI data infrastructure. However, there is still unlocking pressure ahead. Currently, it is more a result of narrative-driven and concentrated trading rather than real demand validation. A sharp rise and logical consistency are two different things...
There is also capital movement in other directions. Tokens related to AI Agents like Quack AI (Q) continue to attract attention. Bitway (BTW), with a relatively large market cap, also appears on the heat charts. Directions like storage, AI, and privacy, such as ZEC and STRK, have decent weekly performance, showing localized heat.
Overall, today is a case of structural hotspots rather than broad resonance. When the market is weak, capital tends to focus on targets with narratives and trading volume, but sentiment fades quickly and prices fall back. For WAL, the key going forward is whether trading volume can be maintained and product progress can keep up, not just focusing on single-day gains.
The above is purely market observation and personal judgment, not investment advice. The market changes quickly, so partners should do their own research.I just checked the long-short ratio of BTC perpetual contracts on OKX, which is 1.8 now, compared to about 1.25 a day ago.
The price dropped more than 3% in one day, but the number of long positions actually increased as the price fell. At first, I thought big players were accumulating at the bottom. But when I looked at the top 5% segment, the numbers didn’t add up: by headcount, the long-short ratio is 1.23, but by position size, it’s only 0.94. So more people are long, but the money is slightly more short.
Therefore, the main buyers catching the falling knife are small accounts; the big players haven’t shifted their positions more to the long side. If the top 5% position ratio goes above 1 in the next couple of days, then I was wrong.
Do you usually watch the ratio by number of people or by position size?
$BTC The $MON chain is a good public chain with excellent engineering capabilities, capable of running large-scale DAPPs without issues. However, it lacks distinctiveness and proprietary new technologies. It still mainly relies on the usual EVM+ optimized model. Given the current intense competition among public chains, with strong technical innovations like NEAR's Nightshade sharding, Sui's Move language object model, and AvAX's subchain architecture, $MON appears quite ordinary.Alpenglow能讓Solana最終確認快99%？10月21日要驗證三件事
Solana預定於10月21日啟用Alpenglow，取代TowerBFT共識機制。官方目標是將最終確認時間從約12.8秒縮短至150毫秒。
但投資人不能只看這個數字，真正值得觀察的是：
① 實際確認速度
150毫秒目前仍是技術目標，升級後要看主網能否穩定接近預期。
② 驗證者遷移是否順利
驗證者需使用基於Agave 4.3.0的客戶端。大型共識機制轉換，網路穩定性是關鍵。
③ 鏈上數據如何解讀
Alpenglow將驗證者投票移出一般交易紀錄，可能導致TPS與交易筆數結構性下降，但不代表真實用戶需求減少。
此外，10月21日首先導入的是Votor，Rotor資料傳播升級仍屬後續階段。
我的判斷是，Alpenglow具備重要技術意義，但最終成效仍須由主網實測證明。若升級延期、網路不穩，或確認速度未達預期，就需要重新評估市場原本的樂觀預期。
技術規格是目標，主網驗證才是證據。
#Solana主网提速，节点门槛会否上升？ $SOL $BTC fell 3.27% in 24 hours, dropping from 84,117.6 to 80,188 before rebounding to 80,908. During this period, the bulls suffered more losses: long position liquidations totaled $84.79 million, while shorts only liquidated $33.67 million. I am bearish. The funding rates for the last three periods were 0.0015%, -0.0018%, and -0.0041%, becoming increasingly negative, indicating that shorts are willing to pay to hold positions. This structure usually leads to further price declines. Options trading shows a put/call ratio of 1.05, higher than the open interest ratio of 0.91, with new orders leaning towards buying protection. DVOL at 38.8 is not high; if PPI turns hotter, volatility has room to expand. Contract open interest remains at $7.48 billion, leverage has not been fully cleaned out, and if macro pressure increases, longs will be liquidated further. The expectation is for the price to first break below 80,188. Conditions for a bullish reversal: price must reclaim 84,117.6, and funding rates return to positive. If PPI cools down, the macro pressure will ease, and the main factor will be leverage unwinding itself, which will have a much smaller impact.#台积电Q3营收创新高，盈利表现待揭晓 台积电第三季度营收创下新高，市场关注的焦点已经转向盈利能力：AI芯片需求能否继续支撑高毛利率，以及先进制程扩产带来的成本压力是否会影响利润增长。
对于投资者来说，营收增长只是第一层信号。更重要的是利润增速能否跟上，以及管理层对第四季度AI需求和资本开支的判断。
如果利润率保持韧性，说明台积电不仅获得了AI订单，还保留了较强的定价能力；反之，即使营收创新高，也可能面临市场对估值的重新审视。
台积电的财报，实际上也是观察全球AI产业链景气度的重要窗口。
补充一个重要时间点：截至截图所示的北京时间12:15，台积电第三季度完整财报尚未公布，今天14:00才召开业绩说明会。已确认的是第三季度营收约1.49万亿新台币，同比增长约50%；市场预计净利润也可能创纪录，但仍属于预测。
所以这篇帖子用“盈利表现待揭晓”是准确的，不宜提前写成“净利润已经创新高”。$CRWV 今天下跌超過 16%，並在過去 5 個月內暴跌超過 50%。
原因是它的債務。CoreWeave 欠下約 350 億美元的債務，僅上季度就支付了 6.4 億美元的利息。投資者現在開始拋售這些債務。其 2032 年債券自六月以來已下跌超過 23%。
債券交易價格如此低迷，被視為陷入困境。
由於價格下跌，現在購買這些債券的任何人每年可獲得超過 15% 的收益。因此，15% 現在是 CoreWeave 借錢所需的成本。
這是一個大問題，因為它計劃今年支出 350 億至 390 億美元，但現金僅有 55 億美元。它必須持續借貸以維持建設。
投資者用來對沖違約風險的信用違約掉期，現在定價顯示 CoreWeave 在 5 年內違約的機率為 58%。#US CPI Surpasses Expectations to 3.7%, PPI Faces Another Test Tonight US September CPI rose to 3.7% year-on-year, higher than August's 3.4%; month-on-month increased by 0.6%. Core CPI rose to 2.6% year-on-year, with a 0.3% month-on-month increase. Rising energy prices are the main driver, but core inflation remains sticky, indicating that inflationary pressure cannot be simply attributed to oil price fluctuations.
This data puts the Federal Reserve in a tougher balancing act: employment growth has clearly cooled, yet inflation is rising again. Market concerns about further rate hikes are intensifying, the direction of pressure on the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields has changed, and the valuation space for risk assets is being tested.
Tonight, the U.S. September PPI will also be released at 8:30 AM Eastern Time, which is 8:30 PM Beijing Time. Whether producer prices cool down simultaneously will help the market judge if cost pressures continue to transmit to the consumer side.
For BTC, the most unfavorable combination currently is rising inflation, increasing rate expectations, and cooling employment. If PPI continues to exceed expectations, the market may further lower easing expectations; if producer-side pressure eases, there is a chance to mitigate the impact brought by CPI. The key tonight is not just the data level but whether inflation is spreading. $BTC Core DAO proactively withdrawing its validator nodes can be interpreted in two completely different ways: whether it voluntarily delinks and exits the validator set or is just a temporary shutdown. 1. The ideal interpretation: Decentralization (positive narrative) The Core network has only 31 active validator nodes in total. - The foundation proactively exits its its official validator nodes, no longer monopolizing validator seats, and hands over block production rights to third-party community validators. - This means the project team no longer controls the network, weakening the foundation's control over the chain, aligning with the goal of decentralization of public chains. - This is a routine practice for many public chains in the later stages and does not mean the chain is about to run away. But here's a key point: although official nodes exit, if a large number of staking orders remain concentrated in the hands of a few top validators, the network remains highly centralized, with control simply transferred from the project team to a few large players. 2. Negative Signals to Watch Out For (Market Concern) If the core official validator node suddenly withdraws without prior announcement, the market generally interprets it as the following issues. 1. Project team operations and maintenance contraction and budget cuts Running validator nodes requires ongoing server and operational labor costs. - Token prices remain sluggish, ecosystem revenue falls short of expectations, teams cut expenses and no longer bear validator costs. - This indicates that project teams are unwilling to continue investing in maintaining this chain, signaling weakening fundamentals. 2. Lack of team confidence