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PPI debuts tonight Whether inflation triggered by energy prices has truly spread to other sectors will be revealed at 8:30 With last night's core CPI data strengthening, PPI is very likely to also exceed expectations, so rate hike expectations may rise another notch So don't go long tonight, prepare for the final jump Bitcoin looks to pierce the 8k level with a needle, Ethereum at 2320, gold at 4070 Blur's official website is shutting down, but the token surged 28%? Don't catch this kind of "shutdown + acquisition" fireworks with your hands Blur itself just announced on the 12th that the frontend will shut down on November 12, and the new Blend lending will also stop. This former Ethereum NFT leader's trading volume has already dropped by over 99%, basically heading towards obsolescence. However, on the 13th, Sushi's CEO retweeted saying "interested in discussing acquisition," and the token bounced out of the pit, surging up to +28% today to 0.0133. Let's pour some cold water first: they only said they're willing to communicate, no price or terms were mentioned, so it's still far from a real acquisition; plus, no one can clearly explain what use taking over a frontend that's about to shut down would have for the BLUR token. On the market, OKEx spot 24-hour volume is only around 1.51 million USDT, RSI is already at 81 indicating overbought, and the price has surged beyond the Bollinger upper band at 0.0124. This is a typical thin market short squeeze fireworks—rises fast, crashes even more irrationally. Watch for one signal: whether the acquisition talk turns from a verbal statement into a real announcement, and whether volume can hold above the intraday high of 0.0135; relying solely on the word "discuss" to hold up the hype, once it fades, this kind of token usually falls back down as fast as it rose. DYOR, not investment advice. #BLUR #NFT #Sushi#US Considers Easing Oil Tanker Sanctions to Promote Direct Diesel Supply from Russia $BTC Last time it was the cargo that was loosened, this time it's the ships under consideration. ▪️ On 10/14, US officials revealed they are considering easing sanctions on certain "shadow fleet" oil tankers ▪️ These involve vessels previously listed for transporting oil products from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela ▪️ The plan is to allow these ships to resume transporting "legal oil" not prohibited by US sanctions ▪️ The reason given is that tanker freight rates have surged to record highs ▪️ On 10/9, General License No. 135 was issued, authorizing the sale, delivery, and import of Russian diesel ▪️ This license is valid until April 7, 2027; Russia has committed to supplying 300,000 tons in October The disagreement is not about whether sanctions will be eased, but whether the two rounds of easing apply to the same thing. Last time, the cargo was allowed: diesel could be sold, unloaded, and brought into port. This time, the focus is on allowing the ships that carry the cargo—the same vessels previously listed due to transporting sanctioned oil products. Cargo and ships are two separate locks; opening only the cargo lock doesn't reduce freight costs. The key to whether the supply chain is open depends on whether shipowners and insurers accept the orders. The direction is to wait and see—only when shipowners actually take orders and freight rates fall can the channel be considered open; if it remains in the discussion stage, it is just an expectation.Buy $BNB or buy $OKB? Although they are both exchange platform tokens, their development approaches are actually different: 1. BNB aims to build its own crypto kingdom, basically cutting into all Web3 ecosystems: meme launchpad with four.meme; prediction market with predict.fun; decentralized exchange with $ASTER; public chain with BSC chain; RWA is also booming... It even hasn't missed out on VC business, with YZi Labs. It’s very much like the Tencent of Web3, wanting to get involved in every profitable business in the industry. 2. OKB actually wants to build Web3 financial infrastructure, and it’s compliant infrastructure. So you’ll find many of OKX’s moves are very restrained. For example, the prediction market, OKX just treats it as an Outcomes event, probably due to compliance concerns. But for compliant things, OKX does very well, like the OKX wallet, which veteran users basically all use because it’s so powerful. For example, Dapp data is so comprehensive, much better than neighboring wallets. Also, OKX Pay, RWA, Exchange OS, etc., are all following the "on-chain trading + real-world payment + asset settlement" financial infrastructure path. One has a market cap of 100 billion, the other 2.5 billion. Both can be bought and both have opportunities for token price surges. #OKXMillionPlanner $ETH 2400 directly broke through $ETH The low point hit around 2310 Now fluctuating back and forth around 2370 The double bottom that everyone talked about before has already been broken Looking back at the trend: the 2400 on the 8th was just a spike, on the 13th it tested support again, today it directly broke down with a real body This is not a simple shakeout, the floor support was directly pulled away Those who previously called for a V-shaped rebound at 2580, said 2500 would hold, and insisted 2400 was a solid bottom, are now all trapped People who entered around 2700 need the market to rally nearly 20% to break even Many are still stubbornly holding onto their beliefs The market trend has weakened; after the CPI release, bulls gave up before the data Don't rush to bottom-fish at this stage, it's easy to catch a falling knife repeatedly There is still downward space below 2300 Don't be blindly optimistic during rebounds; many rebounds are just upper-level funds taking the opportunity to exit After the rebound ends, the price will continue to drop. Currently, long positions can easily become fuel for the market's decline $ETH Detailed Reasons for Today's Gold Price Increase Last night, the CPI data exceeded expectations, causing an instant sharp drop in gold prices, which was a short-term panic sell-off. Today’s movement is a rebound recovery after an oversell, not the start of a new bullish trend. 1. Federal Reserve officials' remarks ease rate hike expectations (most crucial) After the CPI release, the market briefly bet on another Fed rate hike, but Fed officials later expressed dovish views, indicating no immediate need to raise rates. The market lowered the probability of a rate hike, and long-term U.S. Treasury yields fell from highs. Gold is a non-yielding asset; as Treasury yields decline, the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases, leading to capital flowing back into gold and pushing prices up. 2. U.S. Dollar Index decline Cooling rate hike expectations weakened the dollar. Since gold is priced in dollars, a weaker dollar lowers the cost for overseas buyers to purchase gold, increasing demand and supporting gold price gains. 3. Technical aspect: short-term oversell + short sellers taking profits The previous night’s rapid sharp drop allowed many short positions to profit. Today, shorts are closing positions, passively pushing gold prices higher; simultaneously, the low price attracts short-term bottom-fishing funds, creating rebound momentum. 4. Medium- to long-term buying support Global central banks continue to buy gold, maintaining a base position that absorbs some selling pressure after sharp declines, limiting further deep drops and facilitating rebound recovery. Current Market and Key Levels Resistance: 4170 (strong resistance; only if this level is firmly broken will rebound space open) Support: 4100, 4075 Key point: This is currently just a rebound, not a reversal. If U.S. Treasury yields rise again later, the rebound rally may end and prices will face renewed pressure After the deep V, three signals are more real than the rebound The sharp drop was caused by long liquidation, with 170,000 people liquidated and 815 million evaporated, long positions accounting for 689 million. The rally only filled the liquidity gap, no new money, considered a repair. The further drop is due to weak ETF buying, unable to hold. Signal 1: Whales quietly accumulate. Holdings rose to 3.03 million BTC, ETF net inflow turned from 83,000 outflows to 2,300 inflows this year. Big money and small retail are not on the same rhythm. 🐋 Signal 2: Retail retreats, institutions leverage up. In September, institutional USDT borrowing increased by 83.3%, retail decreased by 17.2%. Chips concentrate among a few, more honest than candlesticks. 📊 Signal 3: MSTR premium disappears. Strategy holds 848,000 BTC, about 70.6 billion, market cap only 51.1 billion. Buying coins by issuing shares changed from premium to discount, cycle logic changed. 🔄 The deep V is just the surface; the real change is in capital structure and pricing logic. Personal analysis, not investment advice. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #US CPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, PPI faces another test tonight #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profit hits record high As soon as the inflation data came out, did $BTC drop first out of respect? The real test is yet to come 📊 Last night, the US September CPI was released: year-on-year 3.7%, higher than expected, core at 2.6%, and gasoline prices added fuel to the fire. BTC slid from 83,000 to below 82,000, with hundreds of millions of dollars in long positions liquidated, and the market instantly turned red. US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthened simultaneously, putting collective pressure on risk assets. But one data point does not mean the trend is over. Energy disturbances involve Middle East factors; core inflation is sticky but not runaway. High interest rates suppress valuations in the short term, but BTC's long-term narrative remains intact; ETF funds flow in and out, so don’t directly interpret this as institutional withdrawal. Panic often amplifies volatility more than data. The real focus is on the 15th: PPI will show production-side pressure, retail sales will reflect consumer resilience, and combined with Federal Reserve officials’ statements, interest rate expectations may be repriced. If data cools down, hopes for a pause in rate hikes will return; if it exceeds expectations again, the crypto market will inevitably remain under pressure. My stance: no rush to bottom-fish, no panic selling. Wait for data and funds to give direction before deciding to act. The more chaotic the market, the steadier your hands must be—don’t let emotions trade for you 🧘‍♂️ #USCPIExceedsExpectationsTo3.7%,TonightPPIFacesTestAgain #TSMCQ3NetProfitExceedsExpectations,ProfitHitsRecordHigh #NetflixGrowthMaySlow,AdBusinessBecomesNewFocus $ETH current status: around 2368, 24-hour -5%, intraday range 2342–2425 Compared with yesterday's forecast: • 2400 did rebound today — intraday high reached 2425, but failed to hold, now back below 2400. This means the "1-hour close above 2400" bullish signal appeared but did not sustain, a false breakout style pullback, market strength confirmation still pending • 2479 not reached yet, not even touched, upper resistance remains effective • 2313 / 2296 bottom lines temporarily safe — today's low was 2342, still some distance from the weekly bottom line 2296, bears haven't pushed lower So according to my system, the current state can be summarized as: weak pullback confirming resistance, direction choice not made yet. Observation points remain unchanged, and because today's pullback failed, the signal's weight is actually clearer: 1. Break 2400 again and hold 1-hour close → only then is there a chance to test 2479; today's move reaching 2425 then falling back shows active selling pressure around 2400–2425 2. If each pullback is lower (2425 → a lower secondary high), then breaking 2342 → high probability to retest 2313, even 2296 3. Breaking 2296 → according to your rules, weekly structure fails, turning bearish NFT issuance volume will increase to 1.34 billion in 2025, but transaction volume will decline by 37% year-on-year to $5.63 billion, with the average transaction price falling below $100. Market speculation has significantly cooled, but the continued expansion on the supply side itself indicates that underlying demand has not disappeared. The value logic of NFTs is undergoing a structural transformation. The 1.0 era dominated by speculative avatars has ended, and the next growth phase will be driven by tokenized physical assets—Pokémon cards, Rolex watches, digital tickets, and game items are becoming the new narrative core. Naver Pay has implemented NFT digital tickets at the National Sports Games, integrating entry verification with tourism consumption rights, proving that NFTs as "usable, redeemable digital rights certificates" have real commercial scenarios. The maturity of technical infrastructure supports this transformation. Layer 2 solutions like Immutable X have reduced NFT transaction costs to nearly zero and increased throughput to over 9,000 TPS, systematically resolving the efficiency bottlenecks that have long constrained large-scale applications. Robinhood Chain, launched less than two months ago, has daily NFT transaction volumes exceeding twice that of the Ethereum mainnet, validating the ability of a low-threshold on-chain environment to stimulate user demand. #SonyEarningsPreview: How are the gaming and music businesses performing? #OKXPlanetTopic is here #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes a new highlight #闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ SanDisk's report on October 29: Revenue forecast of 10.3-10.8 billion USD, yet stock price plunged nearly 6% — ChangXin's breakthrough triggers sector revaluation, was the NAND leader unfairly punished? SanDisk (SNDK) will release its FY2027 Q1 earnings report after the U.S. market close on October 29. Revenue forecast: the company previously expected quarterly revenue between 10.3 billion and 10.8 billion USD. Core driver: With the growth in AI data center demand and rising NAND flash prices, the market is focused on whether the storage business can sustain high growth and further boost profits. Screenshot community opinions point out that the recent pressure on the storage sector is mainly due to ChangXin Technology's breakthrough, which led the market to collectively reprice the entire storage sector. At the same time, some market views warn of risks: the rebound in storage stocks after the sharp drop is an oversold rebound rather than a trend reversal. This means sector sentiment has not fully recovered, and capital is still cautious. ChangXin's breakthrough suppresses DRAM valuations, while SanDisk operates in the NAND business — in this round of collective repricing of the storage sector, is SanDisk a high-quality asset that was "unfairly punished," or just a cyclical stock following the trend? The October 29 earnings report will be a key moment to verify its independent logic.US September CPI was released last night: year-on-year 3.7%, higher than August's 3.4%; excluding food and energy, year-on-year is 2.6%. In the same report, seasonally adjusted gasoline prices rose 9.1% in a single month, contributing to more than half of the overall monthly increase. Declaring "inflation is out of control across the board" just by seeing 3.7%, or saying "it's nothing" based on 2.6%, both only show half the picture. Gasoline prices rising sharply does not mean every item rose 9.1%; the core being lower than the overall also doesn't mean you can just remove fuel costs from life. I want to see clearly where the price increases are concentrated before discussing sustainability. Data is not meant to give bulls and bears each a hammer to hit whichever number suits their view. $BTC # SoftBank Group Increases Investment in OpenAI, Earnings Report Focuses on Investment Returns On October 1, SoftBank dropped the final $10 billion, completing its $30 billion follow-up investment plan in OpenAI, but on October 13, its stock price in Tokyo plummeted 8.5%, down 38% from its all-time high. Borrowing at a high 9.75% interest rate to invest in OpenAI, stock price has already dropped 38% SoftBank is indeed aggressive this time. The last $10 billion arrived on October 1, fully fulfilling the $30 billion follow-up investment plan, with a total investment of $64.6 billion and about 13% ownership. All the money is borrowed. On September 24, it issued bonds worth about $11.1 billion, maturing as late as 2034, with a high coupon rate of 9.75%. Borrowing high-interest debt to invest in the yet-to-be-listed OpenAI, this accounting is indeed questionable. On October 13, the stock price plunged 8.5% to ¥5310, down 38% from the June 2 high of ¥8632. Without delivering decent returns during earnings season, the market won’t hold back on selling. TSMC's profit soars 69%, is the AI boom now stable? TSMC's net profit for Q3 increased by about 69% year-on-year, reaching NT$763.1 billion, with revenue around NT$1.494 trillion, both setting new records and exceeding market expectations. Judging by this report alone, AI chip demand is indeed still very strong. But what I think is truly worth watching is not just the new highs, but the costs and expectations behind this high growth. Advanced processes, 2-nanometer ramp-up, and overseas factory construction all require heavy investment; TSMC's capital expenditure guidance for this year remains between $60 billion and $64 billion. The market now wants to know: can AI demand visibility extend to 2027? Can profit margins withstand the costs of capacity expansion? This is also why a good earnings report does not necessarily mean the stock price must rise. The stock price trades on "whether the results exceed already very high expectations," not just on whether the numbers look good enough. If everyone bets on AI's continued explosion, even strong performance can still lead to profit-taking if future guidance does not get raised further. High-performance computing already accounts for about 68% of revenue; the stronger AI gets, the more the market depends on this growth mainline. TSMC's real watershed moment may not be whether it can still grow, but how high the market has priced in growth expectations for the AI industry chain. Do you think the market is currently underestimating the sustainability of AI demand, or has it already priced in the good news for the next few years? #台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 $TSM After testing the resistance level near $87,000 twice, Bitcoin's price has started to show signs of a pullback. Yesterday's 3D candlestick chart displayed a bearish hammer, indicating that Bitcoin has actually entered a correction phase after more than 3 months of rallying. To determine whether Bitcoin will experience a pullback in the medium term, we need to wait until the end of this week to see how the weekly close turns out. $BTC #BlackRock Crypto Asset Scale Grows 63% [Old Leek Observation] BlackRock's crypto asset scale grew 63% in a single quarter. Have institutional funds really returned? BlackRock's digital asset management scale rose to about $79.6 billion in the third quarter, up $30.8 billion from $48.8 billion in the previous quarter. This increase alone is indeed impressive. But what I care more about is where exactly this $30.8 billion came from. According to data breakdowns from related reports, about $22.9 billion came from the rise in crypto asset prices, and about $7.9 billion came from net capital inflows. In other words, the bulk of the scale growth is due to the paper gains from price increases, not because institutions suddenly poured in hundreds of billions. However, the net inflow itself is still worth noting. It indicates that investors did increase their allocations that quarter, and institutional demand is not entirely propped up by market conditions. For $BTC and $ETH, this set of data provides a direction for observation: if subsequent funds continue to flow in, even if prices pull back, institutional buying could become a supporting force in the market; but if net inflows quickly weaken, the rise in management scale cannot be simply interpreted as a long-term bullish signal. Don't just focus on BlackRock's asset scale hitting new highs; what really matters is: how much new capital it can attract next quarter. Scale growth reflects the past; sustained net inflows better indicate what the funds intend to do next. $ZEC #ASML Q3 Revenue Hits Record High, Can Future Demand Be Realized? $ASML Revenue increased by 25% quarter-over-quarter, profit rose by 70%. ▪️ Q3 net sales €11.662 billion, about +25% QoQ, first quarter to surpass €10 billion ▪️ Net profit €4.96 billion, about +70% QoQ; gross margin 57.5% ▪️ Net sales near the high end of previous forecast range, full-year outlook raised for the third consecutive quarter ▪️ Some customers have started order discussions for 2029–2030 equipment ▪️ Stock price down −2.49% on the day of earnings release The disagreement is not about whether this quarter beat expectations, but why revenue and profit grew at different rates. The cost of a lithography machine mainly lies in R&D and capacity. The additional unit sold spreads the fixed costs already paid. Revenue +25%, profit +70%, this difference is operating leverage: equipment manufacturers earn not from each unit sold, but from capacity utilization — the marginal cost of selling one more unit is very low. The outlook is cautious — gross margin must hold above 58% and order visibility must continue to expand to be considered fulfilled; otherwise, leverage could work in reverse.#闪迪存储业务高增长能否延续？ Title: Saudi Aramco Headquarters Attacked and Set on Fire, Yet Brent Crude Closes Down 0.9% — Why Is the Geopolitical Premium Not Working This Time? The market is watching whether the conflict will further affect oil fields, refineries, and export terminals, as well as whether facility security and transportation risks can impact actual crude supply and international oil prices. Energy giant executives have begun withdrawing from related activities, marking a substantial escalation in security risks to Middle Eastern energy facilities. The market uses the "Brent closing down" to tell investors: the pricing power of geopolitics belongs only to "actual supply cuts," not to "symbolic attacks." As long as oil fields and ports remain intact, it is difficult for oil prices to replay the "panic-driven surge" scenario.On October 14, 2026, rising oil prices, core CPI exceeding expectations, and escalating AI credit risk formed a "triple hit," triggering a market-wide sell-off. The real driving force was the hot core CPI. The broad inflationary pressure shattered the illusion of "ignoring energy volatility," with the probability of a rate hike in October briefly surpassing 50%, and the December probability soaring to 95%. Short-term yields surged first, followed by an accelerated stock market decline that triggered bond buying flows; the 10-year yield retreated from the intraday high but still closed higher. The market began to price in expectations of two more rate hikes next year. Credit market cracks widened, with CRWV bonds falling to the $70 range, data center-related spreads widening exponentially, CCC-rated spreads breaking 1000 basis points, and IG-HY spreads approaching previous highs again. The tech sector's credit performance lagged at the bottom. Stock market trading activity noticeably increased. The NDX and RTY led the decline by about 2%, marking the largest single-day drop since June; the Dow was relatively resilient, with the S&P in the middle. AI concept stocks underperformed the S&P 500 excluding AI by 840 basis points cumulatively this week. CoreWeave plunged 15% at midday, with DOCN, HUT, NBIS, and others also sharply down; ORCL fell 9%. The Gartner report stated that if AI capital expenditures continue at the current pace, by 2030, 80% of NeoClouds will struggle to operate independently, further intensifying concerns over revolving financing and credit contagion. The Mag7 collectively weakened, and the financial sector was dragged down by disappointing US bank earnings. The S&P has fallen below the 7750–7775 positive gamma support range Rising CPI makes Fed rate cuts increasingly unlikely. Cutting rates too early could fuel spending and undo progress toward the 2% inflation target. Markets may hope for easier money, but the Fed cannot ignore persistent price pressures. Higher-for-longer rates could weigh on Bitcoin, altcoins, and stocks as liquidity stays tight. Until inflation cools convincingly, holding rates steady looks more realistic than cutting. #CPI #Fed #Crypto #USCPI3.7%PPIInFocus $BTC On-chain spot demand increased by 69,000 coins, so why can't it withstand over 100 million in forced liquidations within an hour? Data disclosed by CryptoQuant on October 14 shows that after two months of contraction, total Bitcoin demand has recently rebounded by about 69,000 BTC, indicating that spot buying is indeed recovering. However, on the same day, CoinGlass statistics showed that within just one hour after the US September CPI release, over $100 million in leveraged positions were liquidated in the crypto market, with total liquidations exceeding $220 million in 24 hours. BTC OKX spot is 80898.8, SUI OKX spot is 0.9844. The contradiction here is clear: spot buying accumulates slowly over weeks and months, while high-leverage contracts get trampled within minutes in the face of macro shocks. Slow spot buying can't save fast leverage. I judge that until the existing long leverage in the contract market is completely cleared, the cyclical demand recovery of 69,000 coins alone is insufficient to immediately trigger a V-shaped reversal. In the coming week, BTC will likely continue to oscillate and trade between 79,500 and 82,500, and SUI, having fallen below 1, will be constrained below 1.05 in the short term. If the overall contract funding rates across the network turn significantly negative and BTC volume surges back above 83,800, then the consolidation and bottoming judgment will be invalid. $BTC $SUI #OnChainDataAndLiquidations# TSMC Q3 Net Profit Exceeds Expectations, Profit Hits Record High • Core Beneficiary of the AI Wave: Revenue and net profit reached record highs, mainly driven by strong global demand for high-performance computing (HPC) and AI chips. TSMC's absolute technological leadership in advanced processes (such as 3nm and 5nm) makes it an indispensable leader. • Extremely Strong Profitability: Gross margin approaches 68%, demonstrating its very high bargaining power with downstream customers (such as Apple, NVIDIA, etc.), and the yield and capacity utilization of advanced processes remain high. • Market Sentiment Optimistic but Stock Price Calm: Although the financial report data exploded, the chart shows that related targets (TSM, xTSM) only rose slightly by 0.08% and 0.04% respectively, reflecting that the market had already priced in the positive news before the earnings release. Going forward, attention should be paid to the future pace of capacity expansion and potential geopolitical risks. #Anthropic reports Q3 revenue rising to $16.8 billion and achieving profitability $ANTHROPIC Year-on-year growth surged 20 times, but quarter-on-quarter dropped from 143% to 46%. ▪️ Q3 revenue $16.8 billion, quarter-on-quarter +46%, year-on-year about 20 times, and achieved quarterly profit ▪️ Revenue path: Q1 $4.73 billion → Q2 $11.5 billion → Q3 $16.8 billion ▪️ Quarter-on-quarter growth rate Q2 +143% → Q3 +46%, down two-thirds over three quarters ▪️ $16.8 billion falls at the lower end of the market expectation range of $16–18.5 billion ▪️ The company is seeking investor support for an IPO expected to launch in November The disagreement is not about whether it is profitable, but which is closer to the current situation: "20 times" or "46%". Year-on-year 20 times uses a very small base from last year, while quarter-on-quarter 46% reflects its current speed. $16.8 billion still falls at the lower end of the expected range—the market optimism has already gotten ahead of the numbers. The direction is to wait and see — Q4 quarter-on-quarter must hold above 40% for the curve to hold; if it continues to decline, the valuation anchor needs to shift to the annualized category.#Korean stocks fell nearly 8% intraday, global tech stocks collectively under pressure The South Korean stock market completely collapsed today. The KOSPI fell nearly 8% intraday, directly triggering a circuit breaker and halting trading. Samsung Electronics dropped over 8 points, SK Hynix fell more than 7 points, and the Nikkei 225 also dropped over 4%. Overnight in the US, the Nasdaq fell 1.88%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has been falling for six consecutive trading days. The entire global tech sector is taking a beating, each worse than the last. Why such a sharp drop? The US September CPI exceeded expectations, reigniting fears of interest rate hikes. AI infrastructure financing costs are rising, tech stock valuations were already high, and the storage industry faces intense competition. ASML's earnings report clearly showed strong equipment demand, but investors are not buying it; they are recalculating whether AI investments can actually pay off. TSMC's earnings report has become the next key verification to watch. So what impact does this have on our crypto space? I'll tell you two points. First, global tech stocks are collectively under pressure, so risk appetite will definitely decline. Second, it's still unclear whether this round of adjustment is a valuation correction triggered by high interest rates or if semiconductor profit expectations are starting to weaken. If it's the former, the market can recover after the drop. If it's the latter, the entire AI hardware narrative will need to be repriced. My view is simple. In the current market, don't rush to bottom-fish tech stocks or Bitcoin. Wait for TSMC's earnings report to see if the real demand for AI hardware has collapsed before making a decision. What do you think? $BTC $ETH Volume increase ≠ revenue growth, don't skip the second verification Scaling up business is like opening a floodgate, the sound of water is loud, but accounts must be calculated separately. $HYPE: When cutting fees to grab volume, don't just focus on transaction amount. If the rate is cut to one-tenth of the original, volume must increase tenfold to break even; if not, it's exchanging revenue for hype. Later, look at effective rates, real income, and repurchase retention (￣▽￣)~* $AAVE: Raising the ceiling just moves the limit, it doesn't mean borrowing demand will automatically fill it. Check utilization rate and whether new loans cluster in a few assets. Capacity is permission; income depends on actual lending 😉 $XRP: More accounts don't equal equivalent buy orders. Minimum reserves and designated reserves occupy funds; rules or deletions change net occupancy. It's better to look at net new accounts and net occupancy changes, not directly translate account growth into buying demand 🤔 In short: scale is the entry point, quality is the exit. Transaction amount, limits, and account numbers are just the first half; income, utilization, and net occupancy are the second half (๑•̀ㅂ•́)و✧ #US CPI unexpectedly rises to 3.7%, PPI faces another test tonight #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit record high #Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new focus #NetflixQ3AdsAndMargins Whale Showdown ⚔️ Big Bro Maji · Tough Holding Watchlist $BTC: Average price 84,700, liquidation at 71,600, holding 390 coins, heartbeat follows the K-line 😬 $ETH: Entered at 2545.84, triggered stop at 2489.81, unrealized loss 238,000🔥 $HYPE: Liquidation at 57, holding 169,000 coins, unrealized loss 230,000📉 Biggest risk: Single-day funding fees burned $1.18 million, breaking the line may trigger chain liquidations ⚠️ Boss Eleven · Position Cut Risk Control Iron rule: Single loss ≤ 2% of principal, exit immediately if wrong, never hold until liquidation ✂️ Main anchors: BTC drops below 78,000, ETH below 2385, unconditional retreat 🚪 In a volatile market: Draw "error recognition lines" for support and resistance first, no rule changes during trading 🧭 One relies on tough holding for reversal, the other relies on discipline to survive. In the market, stubbornness is a story, survival is the skill 💡#US CPI unexpectedly rises to 3.7%, PPI test tonight #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, record high earnings Volume has increased, so I took the pulse of Dogecoin. First, some numbers: In the past 24 hours, $DOGE had a trading volume of about $1.444 billion, which is $621 million more than the previous day. The market is lively, but let's be clear: lively doesn't mean a clear direction. Traditional Chinese medicine pulse diagnosis talks about "pulse and symptoms combined"; looking at the pulse alone can lead to misdiagnosis. Volume is like the pulse: volume is the heartbeat, price is the complexion, and they must be observed together. A volume surge with a price drop means a fast pulse and poor complexion—trading volume expands but price weakens continuously, sellers dominate. A volume surge with consolidation means a fast pulse and stable complexion—trading volume expands, price holds steady around 0.0790–0.0800, and the sold coins are being absorbed; this is called absorption or turnover. Although both involve volume surges, their fundamentals are different. So don't just focus on the total trading volume; focus on a price range: 0.0790–0.0800. If it holds steady there, this volume surge means a blood refresh; if it doesn't hold, no matter how lively, it's just distribution. I've been fooled by volume surges before. Back in 2017, I mistook a volume surge for the start of the second half, but it turned out to be the sound of the closing bell. I still remember the cost of that lesson. Now, I'm happy to see volume returning. When there's volume, there are players at the table. As long as people don't leave the Dogecoin market, it won't go cold.#TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profit hits record high Revenue grew 50.9% year-on-year to NT$1.49 trillion, net profit surged 68.7% year-on-year to NT$763.1 billion, both setting single-quarter records. The 2nm advanced process now accounts for 8% of wafer revenue, with overall advanced processes making up 79%. AI chip demand remains the core driver. However, the stock price fell more than 2% after hours. The core issue lies in the gross margin guidance. Q3 gross margin guidance range is 65%-67%, lower than Q2's actual 67.7%. The market is concerned that capital expenditures are continuously increasing (with the Arizona plant in the US, Kumamoto plant in Japan, and Kaohsiung plant progressing simultaneously), and the massive depreciation will erode profit margins in the coming quarters. Simply put: earning more, but spending more.【麻吉又从鬼门关爬回来了？25倍杠杆，320枚$ETH 还敢接着玩】 麻吉大哥今天刚被清算一轮，转头又剩下320枚ETH的25倍杠杆多单。开仓价2355.52美元，爆仓价2334.84美元，目前浮盈6500美元。这点利润放在他的战绩里不算什么，离爆仓线只有约0.88%的价格空间。 过去4个月，他曾把5.6万美元做到1225万美元，可今天爆仓后，地址一度只剩2.18万美元。账户从千万级浮盈到几万美元，杠杆把赚钱和归零之间的距离压缩得明明白白。 偏偏今天ETH全网多单爆仓约2.4亿美元，价格跌到2350美元附近，麻吉这笔单子几乎贴着强平线走。 赌狗不可取啊，哪怕麻吉这种无限子弹都扛不住，散户更要小心点，守住本金才有机会。#台积电Q3净利润超预期，盈利创历史新高 台积电最新财报利润大涨将近七成，为什么股价反而跌了？ $TSM 聊到台积电刚刚公布的三季度财报，营收突破1.49万亿新台币，净利润飙到7631亿新台币，同比激增近69%，各项指标都把市场预期甩在身后。2nm和先进制程占比极高，AI芯片的需求依旧硬核 有意思的是，业绩利好公布后市场却小幅跳水。市场并不是担心它赚不到钱，而是开始对它极具扩张野心的资本支出打问号 今年台积电资本开支直接拉到640亿美元，未来几年甚至可能冲到800亿上下的天文数字 全球同时铺开近20座工厂，这种前所未有的扩产速度，意味着极高折旧成本和海外建厂的管理摊薄。而且毛利率指引出现微调，市场开始警惕产能过剩以及AI投入产出比的边际效益下降 预计台积电短期的逻辑是垄断溢价，没人能替代它，但中长期的逻辑将从AI红利期转向产能消化期。一旦各大科技巨头的AI投入转入精细化精算阶段，巨大的资本开支就会变成双刃剑 业绩是顶峰，但狂奔的警钟也敲响了 DYOR 昨晚CPI公布，市场真的是反应非常巨大，美股跌了1.8个点，今天夜盘又跌了1个点，白天韩股又崩了，海力士，闪迪美光这些全部大跌。连加密也跌了一根大的，除了黄金可能还好，毕竟黄金有避险资产之称，而且各国在大力购买，所以目前短期来看黄金是比较难跌的。   昨晚的CPI公布结果非常差，预期值是3.6，结果公布值是3.7，比较预期值还要高。所以市场就觉得美联储在10月可能要加息了，目前预测市场给出的美联储加息概率已经涨了很多。 昨天我们在看的时候，这个加25的概率只有19%，今天已经提升到了27%。 后续估计还会持续提升，但是只要在月底的FOMC之前，这个数据不升到50%以上，然后原油价格能有所回落，估计加息概率不高。   但是加息这个东西就是一个克里斯达摩之剑，只要有预期在，就会一直压着市场，这里反而不如10月加了得了。加了后续如果11月能把通胀按下来，那么就是好事，并且11月中期选举后，川普肯定要干涉伊朗问题，毕竟这个油价已经高了半年时间。不能这么一直高下去！   但是如果10月加息了，通胀没有控制住，那么估计还得持续加，那么市场就完蛋了，所以这个会迎来一个更坏的结果。   所以目前老美其The market is no longer betting on when the interest rate will be cut, but on how many more times it will be raised. Once the CPI came out, the bets changed immediately. The probability of no change in October was nearly 80%, but now the bets on rate hikes have piled up, with three more expected by the end of 2027. But this time, the reason for the rate hikes is oil. Rate hikes suppress demand, but they can't control oil prices. Saudi Arabia won't pump out two more barrels just because the Fed raised rates once. So this medicine can't cure this illness; it can only suppress the economy first. Prices that should rise will still rise, and life will still be tight. For us here, the meaning is very direct: money will be tightened, and risk assets won't have fresh liquidity. Most rebounds in this environment are just for people to sell, don't mistake it for a market rally. BTC is at 81,000, keep an eye on the 80,000 line; if it breaks, it will continue downward. I'm not buying more. With the market this bad, having to watch it every day, what's the point? #TradersBetOnFedHikingRatesThreeMoreTimes #SeptemberCPIIncoming HowWillCrudeOilAndUSTreasuriesMove $BTC 【Ondo locked assets have reached $4 billion, but $ONDO has yet to take off 】 Ondo Finance's total locked assets have surpassed $4 billion, with tokenized stocks and ETFs accounting for over $1.3 billion, and the cumulative number of holders exceeding 1 million. The story of Wall Street going on-chain is indeed growing bigger with Ondo. But ONDO hasn't taken off yet. TVL represents the platform's asset scale, not $4 billion directly buying ONDO. Treasury bond products provide yield, stocks and ETFs expand trading scenarios, and Ondo is still expanding into private markets; the business footprint is indeed growing. ONDO has actually been falling these past two days, around $0.47 on October 12, then continuously dropping to about $0.43 on October 15. Business is hitting new highs, but the token is falling; clearly, the funds are not trading according to the same script. I am optimistic about the long-term potential of the RWA sector, but right now, Ondo's growth cannot be directly equated with ONDO's value growth. ONDO is currently mainly a governance token; more platform assets do not mean token holders can directly share more income. What to watch going forward is whether new assets can continue to grow, whether trading activity can be realized, and whether the token has a clearer value capture mechanism. The story has grown big, but whether the token can get a piece of this cake remains to be seen.比特币跌破82000，通胀数据把股债金加密全砸了。Mastercard花18亿美金收BVNK，稳定币支付赛道继续被传统巨头吞并。Chainlink喂价上Stellar，RWA叙事还在铺路。Richard Heart在土耳其被抓，老盘子的事，别碰。 刚把保安亭窗户关上，外面风有点大。 TRUTH现价0.0172380。K线跌破短期均线，MACD死叉，顶部放量滞涨，趋势已经转弱。清算图上看，0.02上方堆了大量空头止损，下方多头支撑很薄。短期弱势回调，上方有诱多性质的清算吸引力。反抽不过0.018就继续下探，测试0.015区间。 操作上，空单思路。入场区0.0175到0.018，止盈第一目标0.0155，第二目标0.015。防守放在0.0188上方，破了就认。切忌盲目追多，这个位置追多就是给庄家送流动性。 喝口茶，继续盯盘。 $TRUTH #Anthropic称三季度营收升至168亿美元并实现盈利 @OKX星球 Lessons from the South Korean stock market are replaying in the crypto market South Korea's KOSPI fell from a high of 9114 in June to 6035, a drop of over 30%. It went from being the best-performing index globally in the first half of the year to the worst-performing index globally in the second half, all within just over three months. The mechanism behind this crash is worth every crypto trader's close attention. Foreign investors withdrew $131 billion from the South Korean stock market this year, and foreign ownership of Samsung Electronics dropped from 52.4% at the start of the year to 46.38%, the lowest since 2008. When foreign investors concentrate their withdrawal on two stocks that together account for more than half the index's weight, the index has no second support point. The crypto market has similar structural risks. BTC accounts for 58% of the entire crypto market capitalization, and ETF net assets account for 6.38% of BTC's total market cap. When institutional funds start withdrawing from ETFs, there is no second "buyer group" to catch the fall. Retail investors will only sell in panic, not buy. South Korean retail investors net sold 14.197 trillion KRW in Q3, wiping out all the buying in July and August. Retail investors fled when they were most needed to hold. The retail structure in the crypto market is even more fragile due to higher leverage, 24-hour trading, and no price limit protections. The only thing I learned from this crash in the South Korean stock market is: when liquidity recedes, don't believe any "this time is different" claims. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国CPI超预期升至3.7%，今晚PPI再迎考验 一、通胀：黏性实锤了 昨晚 CPI 全面超预期：总体 3.7%（预期 3.6%），核心 2.6%（预期 2.5%）。 今晚 PPI 是 CPI 的领先指标，看生产端成本有没有传导下去。预期：同比 5.3%（前值 5.4%）、核心同比 4.4%（前值 4.6%）。盯核心同比，4.4% 是市场在赌降温，超了就是双重确认。 二、美元和美债：十年期 5.3% DXY 冲到 102.86，一年半新高；10 年期美债 5.28%，2 年期 4.87%。 含义很直接：全球流动性继续收紧，所有风险资产的定价锚都在上移。BTC 涨不动，根子在这里。 三、石油和地缘：通胀的上行期权 Brent 105 美元，WTI 94.6。9 月美伊军事冲突升级，布油单月涨 14% 破 100，霍尔木兹海峡运量到现在还比战前低 3 成。 油价是这轮 CPI 超预期的直接推手，PPI 里能源项同样会被推高。地缘一天不缓，通胀就多一个上行期权。 四、全球市场：普跌，只有黄金吃到避险 纳指 -1.88%，日经 -4.38%，韩国 KOSPI 连跌 7 天累计 -20%。 黄金 CPI 后连跌 3 天到 4083，今早美元走弱#TSMCQ3RecordProfit Palantir Q3 (Nov 2) guided $2.16B revenue but street wants $2.25B-$2.30B and $0.41 EPS, so it must beat its own guide by 6%+ again. Valuation is extreme at $500B+ market cap, 161x P/E and 73x sales vs Nvidia's 28x. Growth is real (+93% Q2) but price needs perfection - that's why it fell after 2 of last 5 beats despite beating.$BTC 81,000 is not support; it’s the ETF cost line holding firm. On October 15, BTC dipped to a low of 80,985, marking the third time it tested this area. The average ETF holding cost is about 81,500, just right underfoot. Once it closes below this, ordinary ETF holders collectively turn to losses, accelerating redemption pressure.‌$BTC Bitcoin ETF net outflow is $261 million, with Fidelity FBTC alone running off $153 million, and BlackRock IBIT outflowing $111 million. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $452 million, with long positions liquidated at $394 million and shorts only $58 million. The bulls are taking hits, the bears are collecting profits.‌‌ The rebound rejection at 82,500-83,000 is the entry point, with stop loss set above 83,500. The target is first 80,200, and if broken, then 78,000. ETF funds are not buying; the rebound is a shorting opportunity. $BTC CPI data released, ETF continuous outflows, long liquidations far exceeding shorts—the data has clearly pointed the direction. But especially at times like this, control your impulses; don’t chase shorts at support levels. Wait for the rebound to be rejected at resistance before entering. The biggest taboo in shorting is rushing; wait for the market to give you signals, which is more reliable than finding your own. #USCPI exceeds expectations to 3.7%, PPI test tonight #TSMC Q3 net profit exceeds expectations, profits hit record highs Currently, this wave has dropped from 116 to 100, a retracement of 13.9%, which falls into the shallow category. To know how long it historically takes to recover from this level, just review the data from the past 1000 days. The method is simple: isolate each drop from a stage high, categorize by the percentage drop, then count how many days it took to return to the previous high. Returning to the previous high is calculated by closing price, not just touching it intraday. For the 10% to 20% drop category, it occurred 53 times in the past two years, with 48 times returning to the previous high. The median time was 8 days, the fastest was 1 day, and the slowest took 219 days. For the 20% to 35% drop category, it happened 24 times, with a median return time of 46 days. Moreover, 5 times have not returned yet, with the longest wait exceeding 300 days. A deeper category, 35% to 50% drops, occurred only 5 times, with a median return time of 86 days, the fastest 37 days, and the slowest 202 days. There is also a longer reference. $SOL's historical highest close was in January 2025 at $261.97, and it has not returned in the past 21 months, currently priced 60% lower. Therefore, the deeper the retracement, the longer the wait to recover, and some in the deeper two categories never recover. This current 13.9% drop falls into the most common category, with a reference median of 8 days, slower cases taking a few months, and 48 out of 53 times it has recovered.#Netflix growth may slow, advertising business becomes new highlight I actually don't care much about Netflix's revenue in this earnings report Subscription plus advertising achieving about 12% growth is basically within expectations What I'm watching is the profit margin guidance of 33.2%, compared to only 28.2% in the same period last year This company has shifted from competing for users to making more money from each user With expectations set so high, even a good earnings report might cause a drop If the advertising part is described vaguely, some will sell after hours Tech stock sentiment has been so fragile lately, don't be too confident on the night of the 20th #PalantirQ3Valuation Palantir Q3 (Nov 2) guided $2.16B revenue but street wants $2.25B-$2.30B and $0.41 EPS, so it must beat its own guide by 6%+ again. Valuation is extreme at $500B+ market cap, 161x P/E and 73x sales vs Nvidia's 28x. Growth is real (+93% Q2) but price needs perfection - that's why it fell after 2 of last 5 beats despite beating.一天流入6.56亿，一周却流出36.23亿 $BTC 24小时净流入6.56亿美元。 同一周，净流出36.23亿美元。 这个数怎么算的： 一天的钱是短线进的，一周的钱是中期撤的。 两个方向不冲突，只是时间尺度不同。 谁在这儿挂单： $ETH 一天进7亿，一周出35.59亿。 $SOL 一天进1.25亿，30天出20.41亿。 $ZEC 一天进1.46亿，承接最强。 单日流入说明有人试探。 周线还在流出，说明大钱没回来。 试探和总攻是两件事。 连续三天净流入，才算资金真回来了。 #渣打开放BTC与ETH交易，银行加密业务扩展 #$BTC $ETH $SNDK $SKHYNIX Hynix starts to consolidate while SanDisk plunges sharply!!! Institutions begin to support Hynix, so Chai didn't dare to short it, but this time Chai plans to short SanDisk hard. Recently, Chinese manufacturers have substantially overtaken; Yangtze Memory has completed overtaking in the NAND market, and Changxin Memory's breakthrough in the DRAM field has caused panic across the entire sector, coupled with many institutions lowering target prices, leading to a brief loss of market confidence in SanDisk. Additionally, continuous insider selling at SanDisk, along with CPI data exceeding market expectations, dollar appreciation, and tech stocks collectively under pressure. In the short term, Hynix has triggered a protective cushion mechanism; institutions start to support the stock, and retail investors and whales begin to look forward to extra shareholder returns after the Q3 earnings release. SNDK current price is suitable for entering short positions: 1348, first target 1322, stop loss 1400. The above is personal sharing only and does not constitute investment advice. #SanDiskMSCIRebalancingEffective, NANDValuationInFocus #USCPIExceedsExpectationsRisesTo3.7%, TonightPPIFacesTestAgain #HynixRespondsToUSExpansionRumors Core DAO's business on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) The truth about $CORE The token itself is not listed on the London Stock Exchange. The listed product is the BTC staking ETP product (1VBS) from third-party issuer Valour (a subsidiary of DeFi Technologies), with underlying staking technology supported by Core. Many community promotions simplify it as "Core debuting on the London Stock Exchange," which is promotional tactics and not CORE token trading. Product: 1Valour Bitcoin Physical Staking (1VBS) 1. What it is: ETP (exchange-traded product, similar to an ETF), publicly traded on the London Stock Exchange, regulated by the UK FCA, with physical Bitcoin as the underlying asset, and Bitcoin entering the Core network for non-custodial staking to generate yields. 2. Business Logic - Valour holds real BTC, with institutions cold storage and custody; - Entrust BTC to Core network validators for staking to generate staking rewards (nominal annualized rate of about 1.4%); - Staking rewards are included in the product's net asset value; investors buying this LME stock indirectly receive "BTC price appreciation + staking rewards"; - Opened to professional investors in September 2025; Obtained FCA license in January 2026, opening trading to ordinary UK retail investors. 3. Core plays a role here: underlying technology service provider - providing Satoshi-P如果CPI前的下探都是在给同一批人上车，那么这次BTC回到支撑位就不是巧合，而是一次提前排好的剧本。 你注意到没有，最近四次CPI公布后，价格都选择了向上延续？ 我盯着这几次数据前后的节奏，感觉市场其实在交易一种"利空出尽"的惯性。每次数据前先扫一轮低点，把不坚定的仓位洗掉，然后公布后反而轻装上阵。这次BTC又一次贴着支撑站稳，情绪上大家还在喊75k，但喊得越整齐，我越觉得价格可能不会乖乖去那里接人。 偏多的逻辑很清晰：如果历史节奏重复，CPI就是一个现成的催化剂，支撑有效的话，目标可以看向前高甚至新高。ETH和SOL也会跟着风险偏好回暖，尤其是SOL这种高beta品种，往往在BTC确认方向后跑得更快。 但风险也要说清楚：支撑如果被明确跌破，这套判断就作废。而且市场可能已经提前计价了"CPI后上涨"这个预期，一旦数据只是符合预期，反而容易变成利好出尽。另一个容易被忽略的点是，资金偏好现在更偏向BTC主导，山寨的跟涨需要成交量配合，不然就是虚火。 我自己的节奏是，先看支撑能不能守住，再看数据公布后的第一根4小时线怎么收。如果放量收上去，说明买盘是真的；如果插针后缩量回落，那就要小心又是假Is $SOXL at a low point now? The price looks very low, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's the bottom. To judge whether it's the bottom, you can't just look at how much the price has dropped; you need to look at two core signals: ✅ U.S. Treasury yields stop rising and start to fall ✅ Heavy holdings like storage and Nvidia stabilize, with earnings reports and guidance not continuing to disappoint As long as U.S. Treasury yields remain high, even if this is a temporary low point, it's likely just a consolidation phase, making it difficult to start a big rally directly. Even if there is a rebound, treat it primarily as a corrective bounce, not as the start of a new bull market. This crash is due to macro interest rates killing valuations + negative news in the storage sector, compounded by 3x leverage amplifying losses. The price looks cheap, but bottom-fishing leveraged ETFs carries huge risks. The bottom is formed by a process, not just by falling prices. #USCPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, and tonight PPI faces another test $ZEC I don't dare to buy in; 1120 was directly smashed through, with a low down to 1070 Brothers, I've been watching ZEC's trend for a while, and my advice is simple: don't reach out. It held at 1120 for a long time, and many thought it was the bottom, but this wave smashed right through it, hitting a low of 1070. Look at those big bearish candles with huge volume—it shows it's not a slow decline but bulls giving up one after another, forced liquidations triggering a chain reaction. Whoever is slow to exit gets buried. This kind of stampede-style drop means the bottom isn't something you can just guess. I checked around, and $BTC and $ETH are also dropping simultaneously, indicating it's not just ZEC's problem but the whole market releasing risk. At times like this, trying to bottom-fish a single coin is going against the market. Technically, without going into jargon, 1120 was a psychological bottom before. Now that it's broken, it becomes resistance above. If it rebounds back near 1120, there's a high chance people will sell because too many are trapped there. My thinking is simple: I absolutely won't bottom-fish near 1112 now. I'll wait for a rebound near 1120; if it can't break through and starts turning down, that's where I'll short. Below, I'll first watch 1060, and if that breaks, then the 1000 round number. #US CPI unexpectedly rose to 3.7%, and tonight PPI faces another test Hayes was still calling for a market rescue in the morning, but in the afternoon he went OTC to sweep through some altcoins. Talking macro with his mouth, but buying old DeFi faces like AERO and PENDLE with his hands. I can only take celebrity buys as a reference; his cost and position size are in a different league from retail investors. He can afford to wait three months, but many people can't wait even three days. $PENDLE